1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:04,160 Speaker 1: Who you put your trust in matters. Investors have put 2 00:00:04,200 --> 00:00:07,640 Speaker 1: their trust in independent registered investment advisors to the tune 3 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:12,240 Speaker 1: of four trillion dollars. Why learn more and find your 4 00:00:12,240 --> 00:00:27,240 Speaker 1: independent advisor dot com. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. 5 00:00:27,280 --> 00:00:31,320 Speaker 1: I'm Tom Keane. Always with Michael McKee. Daily we bring 6 00:00:31,360 --> 00:00:35,280 Speaker 1: you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and 7 00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:41,519 Speaker 1: international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on iTunes, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot com, 8 00:00:41,560 --> 00:00:50,120 Speaker 1: and of course, on the Bloomberg. The prediction markets are 9 00:00:50,320 --> 00:00:52,839 Speaker 1: weighing in and those of you who put money on 10 00:00:52,880 --> 00:00:56,760 Speaker 1: it through those say the Democratic candidate has a seventy 11 00:00:56,760 --> 00:00:59,920 Speaker 1: three percent chance winning the election, now the Republican twenty 12 00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:03,840 Speaker 1: seven percent, and that, according to some analysts, reflects the 13 00:01:03,880 --> 00:01:07,640 Speaker 1: idea that Wall Street doesn't like uncertainty and doesn't particularly 14 00:01:07,640 --> 00:01:10,200 Speaker 1: like Donald Trump's plans and are happy to bet on 15 00:01:10,240 --> 00:01:14,840 Speaker 1: the idea of Hillary Clinton becoming president. David Rosenberg is 16 00:01:14,880 --> 00:01:17,720 Speaker 1: chief economist at Gluskin Chef in Toronto. He is in 17 00:01:17,760 --> 00:01:19,960 Speaker 1: our New York studios. I should mention I've been Washington 18 00:01:20,000 --> 00:01:22,520 Speaker 1: today following up on the debate. Tom Keene will be 19 00:01:22,560 --> 00:01:24,880 Speaker 1: in the New York studio, But David is there, and 20 00:01:24,959 --> 00:01:28,280 Speaker 1: David um wall Street seems to think that it's better 21 00:01:28,880 --> 00:01:31,560 Speaker 1: the devil they know in Hillary Clinton than the one 22 00:01:31,720 --> 00:01:35,520 Speaker 1: they don't in Donald Trump. Well, I mean that's uh 23 00:01:35,800 --> 00:01:38,440 Speaker 1: that much as true. And uh you know she's viewed 24 00:01:38,440 --> 00:01:42,440 Speaker 1: as uh having uh the steadier hand, and um, you know, 25 00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:44,600 Speaker 1: he shifted quite a bit on already on a lot 26 00:01:44,600 --> 00:01:47,039 Speaker 1: of his policies. But you know, I hard come back 27 00:01:47,080 --> 00:01:50,640 Speaker 1: to just to take maybe the other side of the story. 28 00:01:50,840 --> 00:01:53,360 Speaker 1: And um, you know, the comparisons with Ronald Reagan only 29 00:01:53,400 --> 00:01:55,800 Speaker 1: go so far. I realized that. But it's interesting that 30 00:01:56,600 --> 00:01:59,040 Speaker 1: even though he was governor of California for eight years, 31 00:01:59,040 --> 00:02:02,000 Speaker 1: he was viewed as a bit of an outsider. And uh, 32 00:02:02,120 --> 00:02:03,920 Speaker 1: you know when he when he got elected in nineteen 33 00:02:03,920 --> 00:02:07,720 Speaker 1: eighty within a year we had a recession, and uh 34 00:02:08,000 --> 00:02:11,640 Speaker 1: within a year we had a twenty percent bear market inequities. 35 00:02:11,680 --> 00:02:14,120 Speaker 1: And it's interesting is that, you know, we look back 36 00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:19,080 Speaker 1: on Reagan with reverence in many respects, and people seem 37 00:02:19,160 --> 00:02:24,040 Speaker 1: to remember more, uh the eight percent rally from nineteen 38 00:02:24,080 --> 00:02:26,800 Speaker 1: eighty two to nine eight eight as last six years. 39 00:02:26,840 --> 00:02:30,359 Speaker 1: Then they remember the first decline in August of nineteen 40 00:02:30,400 --> 00:02:33,240 Speaker 1: eighty two. So, uh, you know, I I wrote a 41 00:02:33,280 --> 00:02:35,200 Speaker 1: report where I said what you see isn't always what 42 00:02:35,240 --> 00:02:37,320 Speaker 1: you get, and what the presidents say that they're going 43 00:02:37,400 --> 00:02:39,560 Speaker 1: to do, they often get overtaken by events and their 44 00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:43,440 Speaker 1: presidency looks nothing like the promises that were made during 45 00:02:43,440 --> 00:02:45,880 Speaker 1: the election campaign. And just to keep in the back 46 00:02:45,880 --> 00:02:49,880 Speaker 1: of your mind, well, I guess uh, as an economic historian, 47 00:02:49,919 --> 00:02:53,080 Speaker 1: I pushed back and say that Hillary Clinton or Donald 48 00:02:53,120 --> 00:02:56,239 Speaker 1: Trump will not have Paul Voker raising interest rates to 49 00:02:56,320 --> 00:02:59,520 Speaker 1: eight um to start their term, which might have had 50 00:02:59,600 --> 00:03:03,560 Speaker 1: something to do with the recession that followed. But what 51 00:03:03,720 --> 00:03:06,440 Speaker 1: is it that you think Donald Trump? And I know 52 00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:11,280 Speaker 1: you've written that Trump could increase growth? What in his 53 00:03:11,400 --> 00:03:15,840 Speaker 1: proposals that you can figure out would increase would be 54 00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:19,960 Speaker 1: good and beneficial and increase growth? Well, look, I'm not 55 00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:23,560 Speaker 1: on uh you know, the show today to be a 56 00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:27,679 Speaker 1: defender of Donald Trump. And in fact, I, in fact 57 00:03:27,720 --> 00:03:30,880 Speaker 1: I'm not even gonna vote. How about that? Being a Canadian, 58 00:03:31,040 --> 00:03:33,960 Speaker 1: I can't if I look at if I had to UM, 59 00:03:34,280 --> 00:03:37,200 Speaker 1: if I if I had to say UM defenders policies 60 00:03:37,640 --> 00:03:40,000 Speaker 1: or talk about what some of the pro growth elements are, 61 00:03:40,680 --> 00:03:42,880 Speaker 1: I would point to UM. The fact that we will 62 00:03:42,920 --> 00:03:46,440 Speaker 1: have a more deregulated economy, That much is true. And 63 00:03:47,040 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 1: at the same time, we would have a much more 64 00:03:50,320 --> 00:03:56,800 Speaker 1: vigorous expansion of energy policy, drilling activity, pipeline expansion. Um. 65 00:03:56,960 --> 00:04:01,720 Speaker 1: So that much would help add to growth. And um uh, 66 00:04:02,000 --> 00:04:03,720 Speaker 1: I'm not going to say he would ever get all 67 00:04:03,760 --> 00:04:07,040 Speaker 1: of his fiscal stimulus measures in, but um you know, 68 00:04:07,240 --> 00:04:12,680 Speaker 1: his fiscal expansion is much more robust than than hers is. 69 00:04:12,760 --> 00:04:16,040 Speaker 1: And so that's why I was saying before to Tom, 70 00:04:16,279 --> 00:04:18,640 Speaker 1: is that I think that if there's a people always 71 00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:20,880 Speaker 1: look at, well, how's the market going to respond to 72 00:04:20,960 --> 00:04:23,880 Speaker 1: a Trump presidency, And everybody just talks about the stock market. 73 00:04:23,920 --> 00:04:27,720 Speaker 1: They don't talk about the bond market and the fiscal invocations. Uh. 74 00:04:27,880 --> 00:04:30,120 Speaker 1: You know, for certainly from from his policies, I think 75 00:04:30,120 --> 00:04:32,719 Speaker 1: would be more detrimental to treasuries than than a Clinton 76 00:04:32,800 --> 00:04:37,040 Speaker 1: victory would. Michael McKeon Washington. I'm Tom Keene in New 77 00:04:37,080 --> 00:04:40,760 Speaker 1: York and with is David Rosenberg here for a bit more. David, 78 00:04:40,800 --> 00:04:44,920 Speaker 1: your thirst for diving in income rising higher and high 79 00:04:44,920 --> 00:04:47,480 Speaker 1: are you buried in your note this week? But nevertheless 80 00:04:47,480 --> 00:04:51,720 Speaker 1: it seems like you are in the markets. Is that true? Well? Uh, 81 00:04:52,040 --> 00:04:54,400 Speaker 1: you know, look, the way that we do equities of 82 00:04:54,480 --> 00:04:56,720 Speaker 1: Lusk and CHEF is that we're not buying the inducies 83 00:04:56,800 --> 00:04:59,480 Speaker 1: or not buying the major averages. We're buying, say thirty 84 00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:03,680 Speaker 1: stocks uh that we think will preserve capital and generate 85 00:05:04,440 --> 00:05:08,719 Speaker 1: a decent return over time. And I think that what's 86 00:05:08,720 --> 00:05:13,080 Speaker 1: happening the equity market naturally is that over time the 87 00:05:13,120 --> 00:05:15,960 Speaker 1: dividend or the income component is gaining more and more 88 00:05:16,120 --> 00:05:18,120 Speaker 1: traction um. So you know, just take a look at 89 00:05:18,120 --> 00:05:21,240 Speaker 1: a Microsoft last week they boost their dividend again. They 90 00:05:21,320 --> 00:05:24,560 Speaker 1: yield two point seven five, which you can't get anywhere 91 00:05:25,279 --> 00:05:28,600 Speaker 1: across the US Treasury curve. And Microsoft stock is up 92 00:05:28,920 --> 00:05:32,599 Speaker 1: roughly over the past year. So companies uh that can 93 00:05:32,640 --> 00:05:36,200 Speaker 1: deliver that reliable income stream to aging but not aged 94 00:05:36,240 --> 00:05:40,400 Speaker 1: boomers are getting rewarded in their stock price from doing that. 95 00:05:40,480 --> 00:05:42,160 Speaker 1: So yeah, I think that's that you want to focus 96 00:05:42,200 --> 00:05:45,920 Speaker 1: on blue chip companies, dividend growth, dividing deal characteristics, and 97 00:05:45,960 --> 00:05:48,400 Speaker 1: I think that you'll do fine. One more question, if 98 00:05:48,440 --> 00:05:50,520 Speaker 1: we could, what are your dollar dynamics here? I mean, 99 00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:54,440 Speaker 1: being in Toronto, you're acutely aware of that. Is it? 100 00:05:54,520 --> 00:05:56,920 Speaker 1: Is it a year forward of brutal moves in the dollar. 101 00:05:57,520 --> 00:05:59,920 Speaker 1: You are talking with the Canadian dollar US dollar. Excuse 102 00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:02,960 Speaker 1: it wasn't clear. Well, I think that, you know, once again, 103 00:06:03,000 --> 00:06:05,719 Speaker 1: I think the US dollar continues to be uh, you know, 104 00:06:05,839 --> 00:06:09,600 Speaker 1: the prettiest girl in the in the ugly contest, you know. 105 00:06:09,760 --> 00:06:12,279 Speaker 1: So I think the US dollar. Look, you know you 106 00:06:12,320 --> 00:06:14,960 Speaker 1: mentioned deutsch Bank before. We know that the European economy 107 00:06:15,000 --> 00:06:16,840 Speaker 1: has got the Brexit overhang that's not going to go 108 00:06:16,920 --> 00:06:19,440 Speaker 1: away in the capital structures throughout the banking system, and 109 00:06:19,520 --> 00:06:22,520 Speaker 1: deutsch Bank is the poster child, are extremely weak. I 110 00:06:22,520 --> 00:06:24,719 Speaker 1: have no compelling reason to be along the Euro. I 111 00:06:24,720 --> 00:06:27,960 Speaker 1: have no compelling reason to be long Sterling. I think that, 112 00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:30,760 Speaker 1: you know, the end continues to be a big puzzle. 113 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:33,040 Speaker 1: But I would say that to embarrassed on the end. 114 00:06:33,600 --> 00:06:35,880 Speaker 1: And I don't really have much in the way of 115 00:06:35,920 --> 00:06:38,320 Speaker 1: a vigorous commodity price call right now. So even the 116 00:06:38,320 --> 00:06:40,400 Speaker 1: resource based currencies I think are best are going to 117 00:06:40,480 --> 00:06:42,520 Speaker 1: arrange trade. So I think that the path of the 118 00:06:42,600 --> 00:06:46,280 Speaker 1: U S Dollar trade weighted. Notwithstanding the fact that I 119 00:06:46,320 --> 00:06:48,240 Speaker 1: believe that the FAT is not going to be doing anything, 120 00:06:48,279 --> 00:06:50,279 Speaker 1: but most other central banks are still going to be 121 00:06:50,320 --> 00:06:52,320 Speaker 1: easing policy. I think that it makes sense that the 122 00:06:52,400 --> 00:06:56,080 Speaker 1: US dollar probably remains unappreciating trend over the next one months. 123 00:06:56,240 --> 00:06:59,599 Speaker 1: David Roseberg, thank you so much. Blask and Chef greatly appreciated. 124 00:07:10,960 --> 00:07:15,840 Speaker 1: He is professor of economics and Public Policy at California Irvine. 125 00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:21,000 Speaker 1: Peter Navarro has always been controversial in economics. That has 126 00:07:21,080 --> 00:07:26,240 Speaker 1: perhaps ramped up the controversy with his active support of 127 00:07:26,600 --> 00:07:29,840 Speaker 1: Mr Trump. He's worked through a number of books over 128 00:07:29,880 --> 00:07:35,320 Speaker 1: the years with caution, particularly on our pivot Asia. Uh. 129 00:07:35,480 --> 00:07:37,560 Speaker 1: Peter and I have talked any number of times over 130 00:07:37,600 --> 00:07:39,280 Speaker 1: the years. This is the first time that always speak 131 00:07:39,360 --> 00:07:42,720 Speaker 1: to him with the support of Mr Trump. Professor Navarro, 132 00:07:42,840 --> 00:07:46,800 Speaker 1: Good morning. What brought you around to an active support 133 00:07:46,920 --> 00:07:49,880 Speaker 1: of Donald Trump? Hey, John, let me just say it's 134 00:07:49,880 --> 00:07:52,960 Speaker 1: great to talk again. It's been too long. Mr Trump 135 00:07:53,200 --> 00:08:00,640 Speaker 1: has perceived correctly, Uh, the malaise of this country. For years, 136 00:08:00,640 --> 00:08:05,040 Speaker 1: we viewed the problem as a cyclical problem that can 137 00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:09,760 Speaker 1: be addressed by kanji and stimulants. And so we took 138 00:08:09,880 --> 00:08:12,720 Speaker 1: over two hundred thirty years to run up ten trillion 139 00:08:12,760 --> 00:08:16,200 Speaker 1: dollars to dead and Barack Obama and eight years has 140 00:08:16,200 --> 00:08:20,040 Speaker 1: doubled that. And he's doubled that because he doesn't understand 141 00:08:20,560 --> 00:08:23,520 Speaker 1: the problem structurally with the economy. What what is that? 142 00:08:23,560 --> 00:08:26,320 Speaker 1: What Mr Trump sees is that first of all, we 143 00:08:26,400 --> 00:08:31,920 Speaker 1: need more investment in Michigan rather than Mexico, in Ohio 144 00:08:32,160 --> 00:08:37,240 Speaker 1: rather than Shanghai. Uh Number one. Number two Tom. The 145 00:08:37,280 --> 00:08:40,280 Speaker 1: trade deficit, the eight hundred billion dollar trade deficit in 146 00:08:40,440 --> 00:08:43,560 Speaker 1: goods that we run every year in this country, UM 147 00:08:43,720 --> 00:08:46,880 Speaker 1: is a tremendous drag on the g DT. So what 148 00:08:46,920 --> 00:08:49,040 Speaker 1: I what you know? The question is what why am 149 00:08:49,080 --> 00:08:51,679 Speaker 1: I supporting Trump? Is because I want to get back 150 00:08:51,800 --> 00:08:55,080 Speaker 1: to the five and a half decades prior to two 151 00:08:55,080 --> 00:08:57,600 Speaker 1: thousand two where we grew in this country three and 152 00:08:57,600 --> 00:09:01,480 Speaker 1: a half percent annually wheel gut. Since then, we're down 153 00:09:01,559 --> 00:09:05,640 Speaker 1: at right point nine. Well, Peter, the question I think 154 00:09:05,679 --> 00:09:09,719 Speaker 1: everyone has this morning, whatever their support of the candidates, 155 00:09:10,480 --> 00:09:15,120 Speaker 1: is what is the policy prescription of Mr? Trump? Even 156 00:09:15,200 --> 00:09:18,240 Speaker 1: his most ardent supporters would suggest they didn't hear it 157 00:09:18,360 --> 00:09:21,080 Speaker 1: last night? What is the I mean? I talked to 158 00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:24,320 Speaker 1: Glenn Hubbard about that was co authored with you. I 159 00:09:24,320 --> 00:09:27,920 Speaker 1: don't think Glenn Hubbard knows Mr Trump's policy. You're a 160 00:09:28,000 --> 00:09:32,240 Speaker 1: key advisor. What is his policy? I'd ask you to 161 00:09:32,320 --> 00:09:35,640 Speaker 1: check in with Glenn today see what he said. I 162 00:09:35,679 --> 00:09:37,680 Speaker 1: can tell you exactly what his policy is, and I'll 163 00:09:37,679 --> 00:09:41,120 Speaker 1: send you over the paper that Gibber Ross and I 164 00:09:41,280 --> 00:09:45,119 Speaker 1: just released over the weekend. Basically, it's a four prong strategy, 165 00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:48,920 Speaker 1: tom Uh. It deals with tax cuts, it deals with 166 00:09:49,000 --> 00:09:53,280 Speaker 1: the reduction and regulation, and deals with unleashing the natural 167 00:09:53,320 --> 00:09:57,320 Speaker 1: resources energy resources in this country. And it speaks to 168 00:09:57,400 --> 00:10:01,760 Speaker 1: eliminating the trade deficit. It's a four on program. The 169 00:10:01,840 --> 00:10:05,280 Speaker 1: goal is to directionally point us back in the direction 170 00:10:05,320 --> 00:10:10,000 Speaker 1: of growth. His contrast pretty well with Hilbert Clinton's plan. 171 00:10:10,200 --> 00:10:12,400 Speaker 1: I thought it would be chilling for the people who 172 00:10:12,440 --> 00:10:14,200 Speaker 1: listen to your show to listen to her last night. 173 00:10:14,240 --> 00:10:18,160 Speaker 1: I if you want to race actors, raise regulation. She said, 174 00:10:18,240 --> 00:10:20,600 Speaker 1: you want to put the coal mine industry out of business. 175 00:10:20,640 --> 00:10:24,160 Speaker 1: And she's responsible for a lot of these trade episodes. 176 00:10:24,200 --> 00:10:27,640 Speaker 1: So his program is, Uh, the tax cuts. For example, 177 00:10:27,720 --> 00:10:31,360 Speaker 1: Tom cut the corporate tax ray. That will realign corporate 178 00:10:31,360 --> 00:10:35,360 Speaker 1: incentive so it's more competitive to say in Michigan rather 179 00:10:35,440 --> 00:10:38,400 Speaker 1: than go to Mexico. That creates jobs, not just at 180 00:10:38,400 --> 00:10:41,560 Speaker 1: the Ford and GM, creates jobs in the supply chain 181 00:10:41,840 --> 00:10:46,680 Speaker 1: all throughout the Midwest. Um, the regulation comes, we have 182 00:10:46,760 --> 00:10:50,960 Speaker 1: a two trillion dollar annual costs on this country. That's 183 00:10:50,960 --> 00:10:53,200 Speaker 1: the regulatory burden and that comes straight out of the 184 00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:56,240 Speaker 1: White House's mouth, the Office of Management and Budget. If 185 00:10:56,240 --> 00:11:00,240 Speaker 1: we cut that by ten through inter agency review us 186 00:11:00,600 --> 00:11:02,920 Speaker 1: looking carefully at what's in there and what can go, 187 00:11:03,840 --> 00:11:07,240 Speaker 1: we will have a tremendous birth to growth. And if 188 00:11:07,280 --> 00:11:11,600 Speaker 1: you okay, you're asking me for specifics that the energy sector, Um, 189 00:11:11,600 --> 00:11:14,760 Speaker 1: why do we want to kill our flolessil fuel industry 190 00:11:14,800 --> 00:11:17,240 Speaker 1: in this country when we have a chance to need 191 00:11:17,320 --> 00:11:22,040 Speaker 1: not just energy independent but also export us just because 192 00:11:22,160 --> 00:11:24,880 Speaker 1: because because the time professor, I'm bringing my colleague Michael 193 00:11:24,920 --> 00:11:28,560 Speaker 1: McKeon wanted it to Michael one fact check here you 194 00:11:28,559 --> 00:11:33,040 Speaker 1: said eight hundred billion dollar trade deficits. Good, Yeah, you're 195 00:11:33,040 --> 00:11:36,240 Speaker 1: not counting services. That's the same mistake that Donald Trump made. 196 00:11:36,280 --> 00:11:40,960 Speaker 1: So it's really five billion, um. Because now think about this, 197 00:11:41,040 --> 00:11:44,679 Speaker 1: and this is what's important more subtly, when you're running 198 00:11:44,720 --> 00:11:48,440 Speaker 1: an eight hundred billion dollars deficit trade and goods, those 199 00:11:48,480 --> 00:11:52,080 Speaker 1: are all manufacturing, right, So that gives you a proxy 200 00:11:52,160 --> 00:11:55,959 Speaker 1: for how much we've sacrifice a manufacturing and if you 201 00:11:56,080 --> 00:11:59,880 Speaker 1: take uh, the services, one dollar of services versus one 202 00:12:00,000 --> 00:12:02,720 Speaker 1: hour of the trades and goods, which is manufacturing. The 203 00:12:02,800 --> 00:12:06,599 Speaker 1: server of the manufacturing has a much higher job multiplier, 204 00:12:06,800 --> 00:12:10,520 Speaker 1: much higher revenue multiplier. So it's not a distinction without 205 00:12:10,520 --> 00:12:13,439 Speaker 1: a difference is very important. I don't want to get 206 00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:15,880 Speaker 1: too much into the weeds, but you're certainly leaving out 207 00:12:16,040 --> 00:12:20,319 Speaker 1: people who trade financial instruments or lawyers, doctors, those sort 208 00:12:20,320 --> 00:12:24,040 Speaker 1: of people who also sell services overseas. But uh, here's 209 00:12:24,679 --> 00:12:29,720 Speaker 1: here's the question. How does that help Ohio? How does 210 00:12:29,760 --> 00:12:32,480 Speaker 1: that help our industrial base? Well, how does it help 211 00:12:32,679 --> 00:12:34,880 Speaker 1: our industry? How do you get here's the question that 212 00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:37,080 Speaker 1: was posted Donald Trump last night that he didn't answer. 213 00:12:37,440 --> 00:12:41,640 Speaker 1: How do you bring back jobs to those countries? When 214 00:12:41,920 --> 00:12:44,680 Speaker 1: if a company is going to build a new factory 215 00:12:44,679 --> 00:12:47,960 Speaker 1: in Ohio, they're gonna put in as many robots as possible. 216 00:12:51,960 --> 00:12:54,959 Speaker 1: We're putting in factories in Metrico. They have plenty of 217 00:12:55,080 --> 00:12:57,800 Speaker 1: jobs for people. Right, we can't do that here. You 218 00:12:57,800 --> 00:13:00,680 Speaker 1: have to ask you. So you talked about vat tax 219 00:13:00,800 --> 00:13:04,520 Speaker 1: last night. Okay, this is a sophisticated audience. Let's talk 220 00:13:04,559 --> 00:13:09,120 Speaker 1: about the bat. We sell a car from Michigan to Mexico, 221 00:13:09,440 --> 00:13:11,960 Speaker 1: they slap us with a VAT tax if it goes 222 00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:14,839 Speaker 1: the other way, Mexico to Michigan, they hit a vat 223 00:13:14,840 --> 00:13:18,840 Speaker 1: tax rebate. It's basically a backdoor tariff going into Mexico 224 00:13:18,960 --> 00:13:21,800 Speaker 1: and a backdoor subsidy coming out. Why does that exist? 225 00:13:22,120 --> 00:13:26,520 Speaker 1: Exist because the World Trade Organization provides unusual treatment of 226 00:13:26,640 --> 00:13:29,320 Speaker 1: our income tax shifts and versus the bat and we've 227 00:13:29,320 --> 00:13:32,800 Speaker 1: gone decades without addressing that. It's like, you know, and 228 00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:35,960 Speaker 1: for your audience, this cuts to the heart of the changer. 229 00:13:36,000 --> 00:13:39,120 Speaker 1: What we're trying to do is realign incentive so companies 230 00:13:39,160 --> 00:13:42,160 Speaker 1: can be too set it appear, Peter, would a Trump 231 00:13:42,240 --> 00:13:47,360 Speaker 1: presidency be able to work for a Washington centric US 232 00:13:47,440 --> 00:13:53,160 Speaker 1: Senate to pass legislation? Who you know? You say Washington centric? 233 00:13:53,200 --> 00:13:56,040 Speaker 1: I mean you got fifty states represented by a hundred 234 00:13:56,120 --> 00:14:01,040 Speaker 1: people who understand across this great land. Um, there's an 235 00:14:01,040 --> 00:14:04,520 Speaker 1: economic malaise in there's economic misery. And I think that 236 00:14:04,559 --> 00:14:06,720 Speaker 1: if you had Mr Trump and the White House and 237 00:14:06,800 --> 00:14:10,000 Speaker 1: you had a Republican Congress, you'd c tax cuts, you 238 00:14:10,160 --> 00:14:13,400 Speaker 1: CD regulation, you see it on reaching to the energy sector, 239 00:14:13,720 --> 00:14:15,679 Speaker 1: and you would darn well see a reduction in the 240 00:14:15,760 --> 00:14:19,440 Speaker 1: trade deficits. So I think it works fine. What's not working? 241 00:14:19,520 --> 00:14:23,760 Speaker 1: Tom what's not working is Obama Kenese and fiscal stinulus 242 00:14:23,760 --> 00:14:27,760 Speaker 1: and having the Federal Reserve print money uh and and 243 00:14:28,000 --> 00:14:31,600 Speaker 1: keep bond prices down, and and have this paper bull 244 00:14:31,680 --> 00:14:34,080 Speaker 1: market where the only place people can put money right 245 00:14:34,080 --> 00:14:36,680 Speaker 1: now is into a stock market. You have no confidence 246 00:14:36,680 --> 00:14:39,280 Speaker 1: in do you do you agree with Donald Trump's charge 247 00:14:39,360 --> 00:14:42,920 Speaker 1: that Janet Yellen is manipulating interest rates to help Barack 248 00:14:42,920 --> 00:14:47,960 Speaker 1: Obama and Hillary Clinton. I agree with that in this sense, 249 00:14:48,040 --> 00:14:50,120 Speaker 1: and it's it's it's right in line with what he 250 00:14:50,280 --> 00:14:53,280 Speaker 1: was saying. Um, you know, going back to Ben Bernanke, 251 00:14:53,480 --> 00:14:58,520 Speaker 1: the Fed basically has no tools to fight structural problems. 252 00:14:58,520 --> 00:15:01,280 Speaker 1: So what the White House has been doing is over 253 00:15:01,400 --> 00:15:04,880 Speaker 1: relying on them to keep interest rates low. And it's 254 00:15:04,920 --> 00:15:08,440 Speaker 1: a losing strategy. It's just not working. Again, I say, 255 00:15:08,560 --> 00:15:10,960 Speaker 1: you know, we've got the Obama paper bull. Let's think 256 00:15:10,960 --> 00:15:13,560 Speaker 1: about it. You wants to take every day that stock 257 00:15:13,640 --> 00:15:18,240 Speaker 1: market goes up, when when basically there's confidence that interest 258 00:15:18,320 --> 00:15:20,960 Speaker 1: rates aren't going up, what does that tell you? Bond 259 00:15:20,960 --> 00:15:23,840 Speaker 1: market people are moving money into stock simply the park 260 00:15:23,880 --> 00:15:26,160 Speaker 1: that they're to try to eat out something can return 261 00:15:26,240 --> 00:15:29,080 Speaker 1: to pay for pension fund. Michael mcketon Washington. I'm Tom 262 00:15:29,160 --> 00:15:32,000 Speaker 1: keenan New York with US now supporting Mr Trump and 263 00:15:32,040 --> 00:15:37,280 Speaker 1: Trump Economics Peter and Navarro, University of California at Irvine. Peter, 264 00:15:37,560 --> 00:15:44,080 Speaker 1: how would President Trump work with the Washington based research 265 00:15:44,160 --> 00:15:48,120 Speaker 1: competency of people like the Congressional Budget Office and then 266 00:15:48,160 --> 00:15:51,080 Speaker 1: bringing that over to the legislative branch. How do you 267 00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:56,320 Speaker 1: envision that process would work. So that's a great question, Tom, 268 00:15:56,360 --> 00:15:59,000 Speaker 1: because one of the things I think that's wrong in 269 00:15:59,080 --> 00:16:04,000 Speaker 1: Washington is that the CBO UH and a lot of 270 00:16:04,040 --> 00:16:08,040 Speaker 1: the think tanks, they're simply look um at tax policy 271 00:16:09,080 --> 00:16:13,320 Speaker 1: as economic policy, so that when they score these plans, 272 00:16:13,400 --> 00:16:16,080 Speaker 1: that when the CBO will score a Trump planner a 273 00:16:16,120 --> 00:16:20,760 Speaker 1: Clinton plan, uh, Trump always loses because uh he's doing 274 00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:24,240 Speaker 1: tax cuts and you're gonna show deficits. But the paper 275 00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:27,800 Speaker 1: that over us and I did um argued the case 276 00:16:28,280 --> 00:16:31,520 Speaker 1: that you you're missing the whole story, which is that 277 00:16:31,600 --> 00:16:38,120 Speaker 1: if you grow from say energy reform, reduced regulation, balancing 278 00:16:38,160 --> 00:16:42,520 Speaker 1: your trade, what you get basically is growth additional jobs, 279 00:16:42,520 --> 00:16:45,800 Speaker 1: but you also get tax revenues. So when we took 280 00:16:46,160 --> 00:16:51,080 Speaker 1: basically the CBO standard methodology and the baseline, we see 281 00:16:51,120 --> 00:16:54,840 Speaker 1: that there's a lot of positive offsets two revenues. So 282 00:16:54,880 --> 00:16:56,800 Speaker 1: I think one of the things that Mr Trump would 283 00:16:56,800 --> 00:17:01,600 Speaker 1: do would call for c do and some of these 284 00:17:01,640 --> 00:17:06,760 Speaker 1: think tanks to look more holistically, more synergistically, more integrated 285 00:17:06,800 --> 00:17:11,280 Speaker 1: with at economic plans we get in Washington. You know, 286 00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:13,399 Speaker 1: all I want to do is either raise taxes or 287 00:17:13,440 --> 00:17:16,439 Speaker 1: cut spending to solve our budget problems. What Mr Trump 288 00:17:16,480 --> 00:17:18,160 Speaker 1: wants to do is add a point and a half 289 00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:20,639 Speaker 1: a growth to year. And if you do that, you 290 00:17:21,280 --> 00:17:24,800 Speaker 1: generate not just millions of jobs, of trillions and revenues. 291 00:17:24,840 --> 00:17:27,760 Speaker 1: So that's a great question. And I think the belt 292 00:17:27,760 --> 00:17:30,159 Speaker 1: waves broken in a lot of ways is particularly the 293 00:17:30,160 --> 00:17:36,600 Speaker 1: way they view budget balance. Uh, dynamic scoring. In other words, no, 294 00:17:36,720 --> 00:17:38,680 Speaker 1: I'm gonna talk about no, no, no, no, police, don't 295 00:17:38,680 --> 00:17:42,320 Speaker 1: go there. The dynamic scoring again, is this trap, this 296 00:17:42,440 --> 00:17:46,439 Speaker 1: old debate within the context solely of tax plans. Okay, 297 00:17:46,640 --> 00:17:49,360 Speaker 1: I mean, of course you should do dynamic scoring. That's 298 00:17:49,400 --> 00:17:51,560 Speaker 1: a no brainer these days. I mean, if you're gonna 299 00:17:51,800 --> 00:17:54,520 Speaker 1: cut taxes, there's going to be ripples to the economy, 300 00:17:54,560 --> 00:17:57,960 Speaker 1: but you're always gonna have, even in the dynamic scoring fashion, 301 00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:01,600 Speaker 1: you're gonna have revenue reduction. What I'm saying is that 302 00:18:01,760 --> 00:18:03,880 Speaker 1: in addition that we have numbers on this they can 303 00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:06,760 Speaker 1: share with you on it. If you also take into 304 00:18:06,800 --> 00:18:10,280 Speaker 1: account the rest of the economic plan and look at 305 00:18:10,280 --> 00:18:14,359 Speaker 1: it holistically, what you get, for example, when you reduce 306 00:18:14,440 --> 00:18:18,399 Speaker 1: the trade deficit is you get more investment here and 307 00:18:18,480 --> 00:18:21,640 Speaker 1: you get more GDP growth. If you just simply think 308 00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:25,359 Speaker 1: about regulation. If you've got a two trillion dollar bill 309 00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:28,600 Speaker 1: every year on this economy and you reduce it, uh, 310 00:18:29,480 --> 00:18:32,879 Speaker 1: you've got a two hundred billion dollars stimulus that ripples 311 00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:35,280 Speaker 1: to Those are the kinds of things that have to 312 00:18:35,320 --> 00:18:40,920 Speaker 1: be accounted for in looking at the fiscal responsible UH plans. 313 00:18:41,320 --> 00:18:44,120 Speaker 1: And that's what they're not doing. And it's got nothing 314 00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:46,280 Speaker 1: to do with dynamic scoring. This is this is a 315 00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:49,600 Speaker 1: whole new discussion that we should have about how do 316 00:18:49,640 --> 00:18:54,480 Speaker 1: you look at growth and its role in balancing the budget. Peter, 317 00:18:54,560 --> 00:18:56,000 Speaker 1: let me ask you this. Here's a question that a 318 00:18:56,000 --> 00:18:59,560 Speaker 1: lot of economists have. UH. Donald Trump has not specified 319 00:18:59,600 --> 00:19:02,439 Speaker 1: the regular elations he wants to cut, and he hasn't 320 00:19:03,000 --> 00:19:07,439 Speaker 1: specified how he would get other countries to suddenly change 321 00:19:07,480 --> 00:19:10,919 Speaker 1: their trade deals with the United States. And so there 322 00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:13,960 Speaker 1: are people who say, isn't the return of the Rosie 323 00:19:13,960 --> 00:19:17,960 Speaker 1: scenario under Ronald Reagan, we just assume these things. But wait, wait, 324 00:19:18,040 --> 00:19:20,160 Speaker 1: let me stop here, because you you may have two 325 00:19:20,160 --> 00:19:23,399 Speaker 1: assumptions that that I think they are factually wrong. Okay, 326 00:19:23,600 --> 00:19:27,600 Speaker 1: let's start with the regulations. Um. What what the media 327 00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:29,399 Speaker 1: loves to do is like, hey, what are you going 328 00:19:29,440 --> 00:19:32,320 Speaker 1: to cut? What's the big target? That's not how this works. 329 00:19:32,440 --> 00:19:35,199 Speaker 1: The Donald Trump is a business person, right, Donald Trump 330 00:19:35,320 --> 00:19:37,480 Speaker 1: is on day one, first of all, I'm gonna put 331 00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:41,760 Speaker 1: a moratorium on all new regulations that don't affect public 332 00:19:41,760 --> 00:19:44,600 Speaker 1: health and safety and are mandated by Congress. Why is 333 00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:49,600 Speaker 1: that important? Mine? It's because Barack Obama last year introduced 334 00:19:49,800 --> 00:19:54,760 Speaker 1: thirty four new regulations. Uh and this this they go 335 00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:57,800 Speaker 1: up every year. That's number one. The more important. Um, 336 00:19:57,920 --> 00:20:01,800 Speaker 1: what he has said he would do do an inter 337 00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:05,320 Speaker 1: agency review. Every agency head in Washington is going to 338 00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:09,680 Speaker 1: review regulations within your agency that figure out what the cut. 339 00:20:09,800 --> 00:20:13,560 Speaker 1: That's how people do it. You don't got to say 340 00:20:13,600 --> 00:20:15,679 Speaker 1: I'm going to cut this to begin with. You do 341 00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:18,920 Speaker 1: it in a measured way like a business person. Well, Peter, 342 00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:21,440 Speaker 1: we're gonna have to leave it there. Peterborough, U kl Irvine, 343 00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:27,200 Speaker 1: thank you so much in support of Trump economics. Who 344 00:20:27,280 --> 00:20:31,000 Speaker 1: you put your trust in matters. Investors have put their 345 00:20:31,000 --> 00:20:34,399 Speaker 1: trust in independent registered investment advisors to the tune of 346 00:20:34,440 --> 00:20:39,320 Speaker 1: four trillion dollars. Why they see their role is to serve, 347 00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:43,040 Speaker 1: not sell. That's why Charles Schwab is committed to the 348 00:20:43,040 --> 00:20:47,720 Speaker 1: success of over seven thousand independent financial advisors who passionately 349 00:20:47,800 --> 00:20:52,200 Speaker 1: dedicate themselves to helping people achieve their financial goals. Learn 350 00:20:52,240 --> 00:21:01,320 Speaker 1: more and find your independent advisor dot com. Mike Laura 351 00:21:01,400 --> 00:21:06,520 Speaker 1: Tyson's West Coast booming. Portland's year over year up twelve percent, 352 00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:11,680 Speaker 1: Seattle up eleven percent, San Francisco a little flat, up 353 00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:17,720 Speaker 1: six percent, New York nowhere up two percent. Boston my 354 00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:22,720 Speaker 1: eyes are filming up four percent, Washington nowhere up two percent. 355 00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:26,760 Speaker 1: It's a Laura Tyson world. Michael, Laura was smart enough. 356 00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:29,639 Speaker 1: She came to Washington to be Chairman of the Council 357 00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:32,119 Speaker 1: of Economic Advisors under President Bill Clinton and got the 358 00:21:32,119 --> 00:21:35,439 Speaker 1: heck out. She brought like six properties out west. Have 359 00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:37,760 Speaker 1: you sold a house? I mean you're at You're in 360 00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:41,520 Speaker 1: Berkeley now, But I have to say I have been 361 00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:44,320 Speaker 1: at the same house with my husband all of this time. 362 00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:48,240 Speaker 1: We bought the house in the late around and even 363 00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:50,879 Speaker 1: during our time in Washington and our time in London, 364 00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:54,480 Speaker 1: we kept the house. So you's like a lottery ticket. 365 00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:57,760 Speaker 1: That's great, she's supporting Donald Trump because Michael Sholl have 366 00:21:57,920 --> 00:22:01,880 Speaker 1: no estate tax I have indeed, of course not supporting 367 00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:05,199 Speaker 1: Donald's shop. You should take that clear alaritize it is 368 00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:08,199 Speaker 1: not a Trump supporter. One of the reasons that we 369 00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:10,200 Speaker 1: wanted to have you on though, is because you did 370 00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:15,280 Speaker 1: serve in the first Clinton administration and the Bill Clinton 371 00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:16,879 Speaker 1: is you know, we're gonna have a problem because this 372 00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:19,359 Speaker 1: is gonna be if she wins. Just like which George 373 00:22:19,359 --> 00:22:22,440 Speaker 1: Bush are you talking about? Which Clinton you're talking about? 374 00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:29,280 Speaker 1: Um NAFTA was uh, the negotiations began under the first 375 00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:33,119 Speaker 1: president Bush. Bill Clinton brought it to a conclusion, signed it, 376 00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:35,800 Speaker 1: it went into effect. There's a lot of debate about 377 00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:40,160 Speaker 1: obviously what it did. Donald Crump called it last night 378 00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:44,199 Speaker 1: the worst trade deal of all time. I want to 379 00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:46,320 Speaker 1: let you respond to that, but if you can do 380 00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:49,720 Speaker 1: so by giving us some reasons, some actual facts that 381 00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:52,680 Speaker 1: we can judge this on right. Well, first of all, actually, 382 00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:55,400 Speaker 1: I think it is good to put it in historical perspective. 383 00:22:55,480 --> 00:22:59,439 Speaker 1: We did actually because it's to point out that a 384 00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:01,840 Speaker 1: number of all of the trade deals since that deal 385 00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:06,399 Speaker 1: started with adding UH labor issues and environmental issues to 386 00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:10,199 Speaker 1: trade pack, something that had never happened before. So the 387 00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:15,520 Speaker 1: first Clinton administration adherited a NAFTA treaty which had no 388 00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:18,680 Speaker 1: environmental and labor protections. That if you look at all 389 00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:22,600 Speaker 1: of the trade agreements up to now, including TPP, which 390 00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:27,200 Speaker 1: doesn't meet the standards UH that of protection and UH 391 00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:32,199 Speaker 1: labor issues that Hillary Clinton, Secretary Clinton wants, all of 392 00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:35,120 Speaker 1: those agreements have have have had that. We've put that 393 00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:39,119 Speaker 1: into the international trade agenda. That's important. The second thing is, 394 00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:42,560 Speaker 1: as it's been pointed out, the real failure here was 395 00:23:42,600 --> 00:23:47,359 Speaker 1: a failure to enforce our rights under NAFTA, under the 396 00:23:47,560 --> 00:23:50,879 Speaker 1: w t O, A massive failure to do that during 397 00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:54,439 Speaker 1: the Bush administration, the second Bush administration. To go to 398 00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:59,320 Speaker 1: your point, um, so we have the possibility to use 399 00:23:59,520 --> 00:24:03,200 Speaker 1: our trade agreements and our pressure by our own law 400 00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:06,919 Speaker 1: and by international law to enforce our rights. We didn't 401 00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:10,600 Speaker 1: do that. That's why UH Secretary Clinton has called both 402 00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:16,040 Speaker 1: for UH relooking at and adjusting trade agreements that we have, 403 00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:20,359 Speaker 1: but also also having a chief Trade prosecutor to really 404 00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:25,480 Speaker 1: go after our rights and enforce actions against unfair trading 405 00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:28,160 Speaker 1: pactics by the laws we signed. What did you make 406 00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:30,160 Speaker 1: of the argument that Donald Trump has been making lately 407 00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:32,680 Speaker 1: and that Peter Navarro made earlier on the program that 408 00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:35,560 Speaker 1: one of the great disadvantages of the NAFTA treaty is 409 00:24:36,040 --> 00:24:41,680 Speaker 1: the disparate treatment of that imposing countries and income taxing countries. 410 00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:46,199 Speaker 1: I think that one, this is a general issue of 411 00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:50,800 Speaker 1: US tax policy, and it's in it's the fact that 412 00:24:50,840 --> 00:24:53,600 Speaker 1: it is different from all of the countries that we 413 00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:57,120 Speaker 1: trade with all around the world who use that as 414 00:24:57,240 --> 00:24:59,560 Speaker 1: a tax mechanism. And it has been pointed out in 415 00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:02,200 Speaker 1: general this is not just true about trade agreement to 416 00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:06,320 Speaker 1: non trade agreements. That in international uh and in cross 417 00:25:06,359 --> 00:25:10,080 Speaker 1: border trade, what countries can do with that at the 418 00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:13,760 Speaker 1: border is different than what countries who use income taxes 419 00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:15,359 Speaker 1: can do it the border. So I think that's a 420 00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:21,359 Speaker 1: general point about really US taxation and that taxation. I 421 00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:24,600 Speaker 1: had last night the most interesting moment in the debate 422 00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:28,920 Speaker 1: in in terms of are you kidding me? Wasn't anything 423 00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:33,120 Speaker 1: Secretary Clinton said, and it wasn't anything Mr Trump said. 424 00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:36,959 Speaker 1: It was before the debate I heard it on MSNBC, 425 00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:42,440 Speaker 1: and he repeated it again on CNN. The Governor of Indiana, 426 00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:48,200 Speaker 1: Mr Michael penns Um said something about Donald Trump being 427 00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:53,680 Speaker 1: broad shouldered. Lord Tyson developed her broad shoulders at Smith College, 428 00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:57,400 Speaker 1: and she joins us right now. Professor Tyson, you were 429 00:25:57,440 --> 00:26:01,160 Speaker 1: in the trenches of good academic a few years ago. 430 00:26:01,920 --> 00:26:04,720 Speaker 1: You did everything it took to get to Princeton and 431 00:26:04,760 --> 00:26:08,520 Speaker 1: to move on into public service. What in God's name 432 00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:14,000 Speaker 1: does broad shouldered mean? I'm afraid I've never heard that, 433 00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:17,720 Speaker 1: either personal term or a technical term. I put out 434 00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:21,200 Speaker 1: a photo of Oar from Chicago. Obviously, I put out 435 00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:24,560 Speaker 1: a photo of Arnold Schwarzenegger, who was a certified broad 436 00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:29,199 Speaker 1: shouldered Republican. Would you explain to me, Professor Tyson, away 437 00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:32,840 Speaker 1: from politics, away from your support of Mr Clinton and 438 00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:37,280 Speaker 1: Mrs Clinton, what is it about this country and women? 439 00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:40,760 Speaker 1: As President Pence, I don't care what anybody says he's 440 00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:44,119 Speaker 1: talking about. We need John Tucker. You look very broad 441 00:26:44,119 --> 00:26:49,399 Speaker 1: shouldered today. Why, thank you? Tom? What the heck is 442 00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:52,919 Speaker 1: going on in this country? Well? I think that you know, 443 00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:57,800 Speaker 1: there is a lot of evidence from around the world, 444 00:26:57,960 --> 00:27:01,840 Speaker 1: and it's really very rigorous evidence that that does suggest 445 00:27:02,040 --> 00:27:07,960 Speaker 1: that many people, both men and women, have um when 446 00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:12,120 Speaker 1: they see a competent woman, a woman that's competent, they 447 00:27:12,200 --> 00:27:16,080 Speaker 1: don't think of her as that likable. There are stereotypes, 448 00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:19,600 Speaker 1: there are implicit biases that we all walk around with. 449 00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:23,120 Speaker 1: And that's why I actually implicit bias was mentioned last 450 00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:25,680 Speaker 1: night in the debate, and a number of people tweeted, 451 00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:29,680 Speaker 1: including myself, everyone should go take the implicit bias to 452 00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:33,840 Speaker 1: that is available free online, because you will find out 453 00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:37,439 Speaker 1: you have biases. You think that broad shoulders and power 454 00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:40,639 Speaker 1: and decisiveness may go together. That may be a blias 455 00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:42,840 Speaker 1: view or she may as well learn it, and we're 456 00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:45,800 Speaker 1: barren falenced here as well. Michael, I want to mention 457 00:27:45,800 --> 00:27:49,600 Speaker 1: that Olympia Snow of Maine or Margaret Chase Smith, they 458 00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:54,840 Speaker 1: had the same broad shoulder problem. So I want to 459 00:27:54,880 --> 00:27:57,320 Speaker 1: say also, what I thought was really an interesting and 460 00:27:57,359 --> 00:28:00,720 Speaker 1: a very important line last night was an of can 461 00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:05,000 Speaker 1: you you know when when she said that she was 462 00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:07,000 Speaker 1: prepared for the debate and she said, of course I 463 00:28:07,119 --> 00:28:09,440 Speaker 1: was prepared for the debate, and I'm prepared to be president. 464 00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:13,600 Speaker 1: You know, this notion of being overprepared, I actually saw people, well, 465 00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:18,120 Speaker 1: she over prepared, she knows too much. She this this, 466 00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:22,240 Speaker 1: This is also something. Women tend to be well prepared 467 00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:25,639 Speaker 1: when they go into many, into most settings. This is 468 00:28:25,680 --> 00:28:29,840 Speaker 1: also quite obvious in the literature on this. Perhaps they 469 00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:33,159 Speaker 1: go and because in general women are less confident. That 470 00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:35,280 Speaker 1: is certainly not true in this case. I mean, and 471 00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:38,000 Speaker 1: it should not be true. But you're going in, you 472 00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:41,600 Speaker 1: want to make sure you are prepared. She was super prepared. 473 00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:44,400 Speaker 1: She has fact, she has logic, she has a plan, 474 00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:48,320 Speaker 1: she's articulate. She was prepared, and she is prepared to 475 00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:53,200 Speaker 1: be president. Well, she may be that way, and we'll 476 00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:56,160 Speaker 1: see how she does in the next debates. I mean, 477 00:28:56,200 --> 00:28:58,479 Speaker 1: there was quite a contrast between somebody who had prepared 478 00:28:58,560 --> 00:29:01,880 Speaker 1: not at all and somebody, Yeah, the chacter for being prepared. 479 00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:05,120 Speaker 1: I mean, that's what's amazing about it is Can I 480 00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:08,480 Speaker 1: ask you the fundamental question, and that is uh? Donald 481 00:29:08,480 --> 00:29:12,400 Speaker 1: Trump has suggested his economic plan will increase growth three 482 00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:14,800 Speaker 1: and a half to three and a half to four percent. 483 00:29:14,920 --> 00:29:19,880 Speaker 1: Really uh, And while economists generally seem to think that's 484 00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:24,480 Speaker 1: not going to happen, the Clinton plan doesn't envision a 485 00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:30,560 Speaker 1: huge increase in growth and doesn't really suggest it suggest 486 00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:32,680 Speaker 1: ways to invest in the future, but not to to 487 00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:35,959 Speaker 1: boost immediate growth. Why is that, I mean, why settle 488 00:29:36,080 --> 00:29:40,720 Speaker 1: for two? Is that just on a productivity and labor 489 00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:43,880 Speaker 1: force growth rate the best we can do right now? Well, 490 00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:47,840 Speaker 1: I think I think that the investment strategy that Secretary 491 00:29:47,840 --> 00:29:51,400 Speaker 1: Clinton has laid out, the goal of that is indeed 492 00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:54,360 Speaker 1: to boost productivity growth. I mean, we we do have 493 00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:57,360 Speaker 1: as as you said, the logic of growth over time 494 00:29:57,560 --> 00:30:01,719 Speaker 1: is basically labor force growth and productivity growth. We have 495 00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:05,160 Speaker 1: a labor force which the growth rate of which, even 496 00:30:05,200 --> 00:30:08,320 Speaker 1: as we get labor force participation rates back up, the 497 00:30:08,360 --> 00:30:12,280 Speaker 1: growth of our labor force is slower. That's a demographic issue. Now. 498 00:30:12,320 --> 00:30:14,160 Speaker 1: One of the things that's really interesting here is that 499 00:30:15,440 --> 00:30:19,880 Speaker 1: I believe it's uh the Moody's analysis of Secretary Clinton's 500 00:30:19,920 --> 00:30:24,920 Speaker 1: plan gives a boost to labor force growth through paide, 501 00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:27,200 Speaker 1: family leave and childcare because a lot of things we 502 00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:30,680 Speaker 1: know around the world is that women's labor first participation 503 00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:35,239 Speaker 1: rates vary depending upon paid family leave and childcare, and 504 00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:38,080 Speaker 1: we're the only developed country without either of those things. 505 00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:40,760 Speaker 1: So we can actually boost a bit our labor force 506 00:30:40,840 --> 00:30:44,760 Speaker 1: growth rate through labor force participation, but the demographics still say, 507 00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:48,600 Speaker 1: this is an aging, slower growing population. So it's all 508 00:30:48,640 --> 00:30:51,520 Speaker 1: about productivity. So the question is then what do you 509 00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:55,120 Speaker 1: do to boost productivity growth? What you do is you 510 00:30:55,560 --> 00:30:58,560 Speaker 1: focus on investment. You have to focus on investment, so 511 00:30:58,800 --> 00:31:02,520 Speaker 1: that is the infrastructure investment with spillover effects to private investment. 512 00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:06,840 Speaker 1: That is the investment in education, which spillover effects directly 513 00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:10,560 Speaker 1: into a higher quality, more productive workforce. And that is 514 00:31:10,600 --> 00:31:14,200 Speaker 1: of course we have to continue with uh we have 515 00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:17,840 Speaker 1: Sebretary Clinton mentioned last night the fact that we're five 516 00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:21,520 Speaker 1: percent of the world population. The world populations, the big 517 00:31:21,560 --> 00:31:24,680 Speaker 1: markets are outside the United States. We have got to 518 00:31:24,720 --> 00:31:28,280 Speaker 1: find a way to continue to engage the international community 519 00:31:28,920 --> 00:31:31,560 Speaker 1: through trade and immigration that will give us a boost 520 00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:35,240 Speaker 1: on labor course growth and productivity. And we're out of time. 521 00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:37,080 Speaker 1: Thank you so much. I gotta go, Lord, I gotta 522 00:31:37,080 --> 00:31:38,560 Speaker 1: go now. I gotta go to the surveillance gym and 523 00:31:38,600 --> 00:31:42,920 Speaker 1: work at my shoulders. Professor Tyson with this her support 524 00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:49,320 Speaker 1: of Secretary Clinton. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. 525 00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:54,760 Speaker 1: Subscribe and listen to interviews on iTunes, SoundCloud, or whichever 526 00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:58,800 Speaker 1: podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane 527 00:31:59,200 --> 00:32:03,200 Speaker 1: Michael McKee is at Economy Before the podcast. You can 528 00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:13,640 Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio. Who you put 529 00:32:13,680 --> 00:32:17,400 Speaker 1: your trust in matters. Investors have put their trust in 530 00:32:17,560 --> 00:32:21,800 Speaker 1: independent registered investment advisors to the tune of four trillion dollars. 531 00:32:22,240 --> 00:32:28,920 Speaker 1: Why Learn more and find your independent advisor dot com.