WEBVTT - Bloomberg Businessweek: Black Friday Special 

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg business

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<v Speaker 1>Week inside from the reporters and editors who bring you

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<v Speaker 1>America's most trusted business magazine, plus gloom O Business Finance

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<v Speaker 1>and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week Podcast with Carol

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<v Speaker 1>Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>Black Friday is certainly underway. We got a great live

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<v Speaker 2>blog on the Bloomberg terminal that's following reporters who are

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<v Speaker 2>all over the country. Check it out because they're dispatched

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<v Speaker 2>checking out the crowds, seeing what people are buying. Vonnie,

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of people apparently in line to get the

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<v Speaker 2>Taylor Swift book at Target.

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<v Speaker 3>Did you hear about this?

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<v Speaker 4>I'm loving this blog because we're just talking to people

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<v Speaker 4>all over the huntry of these Moles of Paradise and

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<v Speaker 4>Moles of America and all these different moles, and it's

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<v Speaker 4>really fascinating. And yes, Taylor Swift merchandise is some of

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<v Speaker 4>the best selling.

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<v Speaker 5>I saw it today.

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<v Speaker 4>I was down at Macy's and I saw massive crowds

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<v Speaker 4>coming in by ten o'clock, and I think the weather

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<v Speaker 4>had a lot to do with it. Tim So at

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<v Speaker 4>six o'clock there weren't too many people around. It was

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<v Speaker 4>twenty nine degrees six am six am when Macy's opened

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<v Speaker 4>in Herald Square, but by ten am it was a

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<v Speaker 4>little bit warmer, and you know, there was no rain.

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<v Speaker 4>Everyone had been stuck indoors on Thanksgiving because it was

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<v Speaker 4>so much rain in the Tristate area. At least people

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<v Speaker 4>were out. They wanted to see what else, What are

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<v Speaker 4>the discounts, what's available?

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<v Speaker 3>What did it seem like there were discounts.

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<v Speaker 4>It seemed like there were massive amounts of discounts. Everything

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<v Speaker 4>was forty percent off or everything was fifty percent off.

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<v Speaker 4>But I have to say one comment from our.

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<v Speaker 5>Life blog really did strike me.

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<v Speaker 4>This man that we spoke to, Jonathan Overton from DC, said,

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<v Speaker 4>I don't really know what sales are going on, to

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<v Speaker 4>be honest, there's not really a lot of signage.

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<v Speaker 5>No one's really telling you what's happening.

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<v Speaker 4>And I did feel a little bit like that because

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<v Speaker 4>it was a bunch of merchandise and then you know

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<v Speaker 4>at the side assigned with forty percent off and some

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<v Speaker 4>small writing underneath, and it wasn't quite clear whether this

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<v Speaker 4>was forty percent off the sale price or the full price,

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<v Speaker 4>or you know, sort of a little bit of a

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<v Speaker 4>grab bag.

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<v Speaker 5>You get to the counter and you've out what you're

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<v Speaker 5>going to own.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, so we got the great anecdotes from thirty fourth

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<v Speaker 2>Street where you were at May season, from all over

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<v Speaker 2>the country over on the live blog. We also want

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<v Speaker 2>to get an idea for what data folks are seeing

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<v Speaker 2>out there. For that, let's bring in Julie van Uhlin.

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<v Speaker 2>She's Rakutin chief rewards, chief revenue officer. It's a cash

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<v Speaker 2>back shopping platform. It's a subsidiary of the Internet Services

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<v Speaker 2>giant Racketin Group.

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<v Speaker 3>Good to have you with us, Julie.

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<v Speaker 2>Just give people an idea of the insight that you

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<v Speaker 2>have with this tool, because you know, if you're shopping online,

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<v Speaker 2>you know about how you can how you can use

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<v Speaker 2>this tool. But just give people some insight into the

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<v Speaker 2>real time data that you get over at Racketin.

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<v Speaker 6>Yeah, I'm happy to do that, and thanks for having

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<v Speaker 6>me on this glorious Black Friday. Racketin is a massive

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<v Speaker 6>shopping platform with the best rewards out there, especially this

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<v Speaker 6>time of year, but all year round, where we have

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<v Speaker 6>about five thousand brands who are working with us in

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<v Speaker 6>order to attract the best shopping possible by offering rewards

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<v Speaker 6>by way of cash back that are stackable on top

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<v Speaker 6>of the amazing deals and promotions that are happening during

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<v Speaker 6>big promotional periods like this.

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<v Speaker 7>It's entirely free for consumers to join.

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<v Speaker 6>We have about seventeen million consumers today and growing.

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<v Speaker 4>And where are these consumers July because obviously you know,

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<v Speaker 4>we're looking today, particularly at the US consumer, but Rocketon

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<v Speaker 4>would have tentacles around the world, right we do.

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<v Speaker 6>However, the business that we're discussing today and the data

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<v Speaker 6>that the rich data that we'll talk about in terms

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<v Speaker 6>of what we're seeing from a consumer behavior standpoint, is

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<v Speaker 6>really a North American business racketin rewards.

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<v Speaker 4>So you say seventeen million consumers sign up and roughly

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<v Speaker 4>on average, you know, in a year, what kind of

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<v Speaker 4>reward would a consumer expect to get.

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<v Speaker 7>Oh, it's entirely dependent on the shopper. Right.

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<v Speaker 6>It's a rewards platform that rewards a consumer for frequency

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<v Speaker 6>and for average order value.

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<v Speaker 7>Right. So the more you buy, the more.

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<v Speaker 6>Likelihood it is that the brands that you love the

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<v Speaker 6>most are going to be paying at ten to that

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<v Speaker 6>and giving you more rewards to come back more frequently.

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<v Speaker 6>So it really is engendering loyalty and frequency, and that's

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<v Speaker 6>how the brands and retailers view us differently than what

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<v Speaker 6>they can do on their own with their own base

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<v Speaker 6>of shoppers.

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<v Speaker 2>So we're already starting, you know, we're in the midst

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<v Speaker 2>of the holiday shopping season, Julian, We're already starting, even

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<v Speaker 2>in recent months to get some of those consultant reports

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<v Speaker 2>out with how much they think consumers are going to spend.

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<v Speaker 2>We talked about a Deloitte report out earlier this week

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<v Speaker 2>that said that over the holiday period and especially today

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<v Speaker 2>between today and Cyber Monday, consumers are expected to spend

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<v Speaker 2>fifteen percent more than they spent last year six hundred

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<v Speaker 2>and fifty dollars, So a new record there. What are

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<v Speaker 2>you projecting over at Rakutin.

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<v Speaker 7>It's been a really interesting year so far.

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<v Speaker 6>I think that we are also projecting what would be

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<v Speaker 6>a record year both online and also growing in store sales.

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<v Speaker 6>But I think that a lot of the data that

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<v Speaker 6>we've been showed going up until now over the past

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<v Speaker 6>couple of weeks, as well as yesterday and even this morning,

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<v Speaker 6>speaks to a couple of really interesting trends that are

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<v Speaker 6>specific to this year. The first one I would say

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<v Speaker 6>is around consumer intent. That we see consumers browsing less

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<v Speaker 6>but shopping more. So we see on our platform sales

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<v Speaker 6>are up, average order value is up, but browsing is

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<v Speaker 6>a little lower. So I think that that speaks to

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<v Speaker 6>perhaps the very intelligent consumer doing their research, making their list,

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<v Speaker 6>checking it twice, and making sure that they are ready

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<v Speaker 6>to pull the trigger when they see the best possible value,

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<v Speaker 6>whether that value is by way of promotional discounts, cash back,

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<v Speaker 6>free shipping, whatever it is, they're ready to go. And

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<v Speaker 6>in tandem with that, I think it's also been a

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<v Speaker 6>very by now moment since the week after the election,

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<v Speaker 6>which is to say that we saw a fifty seven

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<v Speaker 6>percent increase in shopping the week after the election versus

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<v Speaker 6>the week and that has continued where there's been a

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<v Speaker 6>record amount of early shopping happening. So I think that

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<v Speaker 6>again speaks to the consumer sentiment, perhaps the turbulence from

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<v Speaker 6>an economic standpoint, and then wanting to ensure that they

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<v Speaker 6>get in now when they feel comfortable that they've gotten

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<v Speaker 6>the offer that's good enough for them.

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<v Speaker 4>Julie, you say you have a mound of rich data,

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<v Speaker 4>and I'm just curious who is the Rocket and Rewards

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<v Speaker 4>sign or opers. So there's so many rewards programs out

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<v Speaker 4>there now, and you know, no matter where are you shop,

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<v Speaker 4>it seems like you're invited to be part of the

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<v Speaker 4>loyalty program. What would the niche sort of offering of

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<v Speaker 4>Rocket and Rewards be that would make me want to

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<v Speaker 4>sign up for yet another program?

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<v Speaker 6>I think the really interesting part about what we do

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<v Speaker 6>is that it runs the gamut of categories, So we

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<v Speaker 6>aren't even just focused on traditional retail categories. We yes

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<v Speaker 6>certainly have the apparel, health and beauty categories that folks

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<v Speaker 6>are so interested in buying this time of year, consumer electronics,

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<v Speaker 6>but also verticals like travel, like consumer banking and financial products.

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<v Speaker 6>So given the fact that it's a one stop shop

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<v Speaker 6>for being able to kind of weigh the value of

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<v Speaker 6>what brands are willing to deliver across categories, it's particularly

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<v Speaker 6>fascinating to consumers in a way that spans the gamut

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<v Speaker 6>that a singular rewards platform might not be able to do.

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<v Speaker 2>Julie, what do you get out of the Rakertin rewards

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<v Speaker 2>program in the sense as a company, you know you

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<v Speaker 2>have to entice people to use it. Do you get

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<v Speaker 2>paid by the retailer, or is the data so powerful

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<v Speaker 2>that you can then make money selling it.

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<v Speaker 7>That's a great question, and it's a very simple model.

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<v Speaker 6>We are highly protective of consumer data and we are

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<v Speaker 6>in no way, shape or form interested in using it

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<v Speaker 6>from monetization. The model is entirely an advertising model, whereby

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<v Speaker 6>all of the brands and retailers with whom we work

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<v Speaker 6>see our platform as a way to get access to

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<v Speaker 6>shoppers who will shop more frequently and buy more when

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<v Speaker 6>they get that cash back, which is effectively the permission

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<v Speaker 6>to buy that they need, and when they give us

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<v Speaker 6>those advertising dollars, just like any media platform that would

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<v Speaker 6>get advertising dollars, we simply pass about half of those

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<v Speaker 6>dollars back to the shopper in the form of cash back.

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<v Speaker 4>So we were talking earlier about the you know, the

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<v Speaker 4>amount that somebody spends then dictating.

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<v Speaker 5>How much they get back in rewards.

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<v Speaker 4>But you must have an average figure or even a

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<v Speaker 4>mean figure for the rocket and rewards devote.

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<v Speaker 5>Hey, let's say.

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<v Speaker 6>It's a very tough one, I'm afraid, but certainly what

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<v Speaker 6>I think it speaks to is the fact that it

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<v Speaker 6>varies year by year, in person by person.

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<v Speaker 7>I did want to mention.

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<v Speaker 6>One more trend to you, guys, which is super interesting

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<v Speaker 6>this year, which is that we're seeing, still to this moment,

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<v Speaker 6>as we're monitoring real time data, that there's this fascinating

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<v Speaker 6>trend happening where it's a first me, then you season

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<v Speaker 6>where and by that I mean shoppers seem to be

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<v Speaker 6>shopping categories that are much less traditional giftable categories. They're

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<v Speaker 6>very interested in areas like pet care, financial services, health

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<v Speaker 6>and wellness, particularly CBS Walgreens.

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<v Speaker 7>So what we see is.

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<v Speaker 6>People out there again, probably because of concerns around potential

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<v Speaker 6>economic trends. They're saying to themselves, I need to get

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<v Speaker 6>myself shored up with these deals and my family shored

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<v Speaker 6>up first before I move ahead to think about gifting.

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<v Speaker 6>We do predict that that's likely to change shift over

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<v Speaker 6>a little bit later today, especially as we go into

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<v Speaker 6>the weekend in Cyber Monday, but it's a particularly interesting

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<v Speaker 6>trend of consumers interested in using this moment a very

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<v Speaker 6>high promotional free shipping, cash back stackability to do what's

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<v Speaker 6>right for them and their family first.

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<v Speaker 3>Julie.

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<v Speaker 2>One thing we talk about a lot is what retailers

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<v Speaker 2>who are traditional brick and mortar retailers have to do

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<v Speaker 2>to get consumers in the door, given that it's so

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<v Speaker 2>easy to buy so much of this stuff online. What's

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<v Speaker 2>the message that you have based on the data that

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<v Speaker 2>you see what consumers are doing online to retailers who

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<v Speaker 2>are trying to figure out this omnichannel approach.

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<v Speaker 7>It's a great question.

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<v Speaker 6>Part of our business is an in store capability whereby

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<v Speaker 6>when a consumer links their credit card on our site,

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<v Speaker 6>then you're able to achieve the same level of cash

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<v Speaker 6>back that you might get online going in store when

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<v Speaker 6>you use that credit card, and it just automatically happens.

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<v Speaker 6>And that part of our business has grown dramatically year

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<v Speaker 6>over year. And to answer your question, I think the

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<v Speaker 6>reality is that we are dealing with a very value

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<v Speaker 6>seeking consumer who isn't just content with discounts and prices

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<v Speaker 6>that a brick and mortar might be able to offer,

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<v Speaker 6>even during a time like Black Friday.

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<v Speaker 7>They need to know that they're getting more.

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<v Speaker 6>So a lever like cash back enables these retailers to

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<v Speaker 6>offer something more that gives the consumer a permission to buy.

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<v Speaker 6>What I will also say about retailers and brands is

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<v Speaker 6>that there is certainly and this is more just holistically

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<v Speaker 6>as an omni channel event is that there is a

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<v Speaker 6>democratization around where brands can be purchased by consumers. And

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<v Speaker 6>by that I mean retailers are in a way starting

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<v Speaker 6>to compete with the direct to consumer brands themselves that

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<v Speaker 6>they sell in their stores, because those brands may be

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<v Speaker 6>able to offer higher cash back, but they may have

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<v Speaker 6>a level to do things like free shipping with the

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<v Speaker 6>larger infrastructure that they have. So it really is about

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<v Speaker 6>figuring out what levers do you have and using.

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<v Speaker 2>Them all right, Julie, let's leave it there. It's Julie

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<v Speaker 2>van ullin Rakatin Rewards, Chief revenue Officer joining us on

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<v Speaker 2>this Black Friday. Julie, thanks so much for taking the time.

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<v Speaker 2>Always good to check in with you.

0:12:19.120 --> 0:12:23.679
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

0:12:23.720 --> 0:12:26.959
<v Speaker 1>live weekday afternoons from two to five pm. Easter Listen

0:12:27.000 --> 0:12:29.160
<v Speaker 1>on Apple, car Play and and Broun Auto with a

0:12:29.160 --> 0:12:34.359
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business act or watch us live on YouTube.

0:12:36.280 --> 0:12:39.360
<v Speaker 4>President elect Donald Trump had dinner with Meta CEO Mark

0:12:39.440 --> 0:12:42.880
<v Speaker 4>Zuckerberg at his mar A Lago estate on Wednesday. Zuckerberg

0:12:42.920 --> 0:12:44.840
<v Speaker 4>meeting with Trump and members of his team as the

0:12:44.840 --> 0:12:47.040
<v Speaker 4>President elect prepares to return.

0:12:46.760 --> 0:12:48.400
<v Speaker 5>To the White House in just fifty two days.

0:12:48.400 --> 0:12:51.400
<v Speaker 4>Now for more, we're joined by Bloomberg's Kurt Wagner.

0:12:51.960 --> 0:12:54.400
<v Speaker 5>Kurt, do you know anything about the conversation.

0:12:54.640 --> 0:12:58.120
<v Speaker 4>I know, representatives for Zuckerberg did let out a few

0:12:58.160 --> 0:13:00.480
<v Speaker 4>little comments they did.

0:13:00.480 --> 0:13:01.400
<v Speaker 8>They were very vague.

0:13:01.440 --> 0:13:03.440
<v Speaker 9>They said, you know that it was an important time

0:13:03.440 --> 0:13:06.560
<v Speaker 9>for innovation, which is one of the things that they

0:13:06.600 --> 0:13:08.920
<v Speaker 9>want to talk about. I think we can extrapolate from

0:13:08.920 --> 0:13:11.240
<v Speaker 9>that a little bit to assume that they probably touched

0:13:11.280 --> 0:13:14.240
<v Speaker 9>on AI, because this is something that's been a key

0:13:14.280 --> 0:13:17.120
<v Speaker 9>priority for Meta over the past year, year and a half.

0:13:17.280 --> 0:13:20.840
<v Speaker 9>They're investing very, very aggressively in all types of AI

0:13:21.679 --> 0:13:24.319
<v Speaker 9>products and features, and as you can imagine, there's a

0:13:24.360 --> 0:13:27.160
<v Speaker 9>lot of concern about what the incoming administration might do

0:13:27.200 --> 0:13:29.680
<v Speaker 9>in terms of regulation with AI. So I do think,

0:13:29.920 --> 0:13:33.200
<v Speaker 9>you know, that hint about innovation, to me is a

0:13:33.240 --> 0:13:35.920
<v Speaker 9>sign that AI was probably at least one of the

0:13:36.040 --> 0:13:37.959
<v Speaker 9>many topics of conversation at that dinner.

0:13:38.880 --> 0:13:41.400
<v Speaker 2>Maybe I'm a cynic, but my takeaway, Kurt, and you

0:13:41.440 --> 0:13:43.640
<v Speaker 2>know this better than I to, was not that at all.

0:13:43.720 --> 0:13:46.760
<v Speaker 2>I mean, my first reaction was, like Mark Zuckerberg's got

0:13:46.800 --> 0:13:49.360
<v Speaker 2>to get on the Trump administration's good side, given what

0:13:49.400 --> 0:13:54.120
<v Speaker 2>we've heard on the campaign trail. Now that Elon Musk

0:13:55.120 --> 0:13:58.040
<v Speaker 2>is their NonStop, and we know that Elon doesn't have

0:13:58.040 --> 0:14:00.719
<v Speaker 2>a great relationship with Mark Zuckerberg. These guys are like nemeses.

0:14:01.160 --> 0:14:02.520
<v Speaker 2>I mean, am I too cynical here?

0:14:03.600 --> 0:14:03.800
<v Speaker 8>No?

0:14:04.080 --> 0:14:06.280
<v Speaker 9>I definitely feel like there's a little bit of damage

0:14:06.280 --> 0:14:09.200
<v Speaker 9>control being done here, right, And it's not just from

0:14:09.240 --> 0:14:12.040
<v Speaker 9>the last couple months. I mean, remember two years ago,

0:14:12.280 --> 0:14:14.160
<v Speaker 9>or I guess more than two years ago. At this point,

0:14:14.360 --> 0:14:19.040
<v Speaker 9>Donald Trump was suspended from Facebook and Instagram for two years, right,

0:14:19.320 --> 0:14:21.760
<v Speaker 9>and that created a huge issue since then. When he

0:14:21.800 --> 0:14:24.080
<v Speaker 9>was on the campaign trail, he talked about, you know,

0:14:24.640 --> 0:14:27.200
<v Speaker 9>wanting to keep TikTok around simply because he knew if

0:14:27.200 --> 0:14:30.120
<v Speaker 9>TikTok was gone it would help Facebook. He even insinuated

0:14:30.320 --> 0:14:32.320
<v Speaker 9>that he might want to try to put Mark Zuckerberg

0:14:32.360 --> 0:14:32.880
<v Speaker 9>in jail.

0:14:33.120 --> 0:14:33.280
<v Speaker 1>Right.

0:14:33.360 --> 0:14:34.760
<v Speaker 8>That was just a few months ago.

0:14:34.840 --> 0:14:37.880
<v Speaker 9>And so we've seen Mark Zuckerberg sort of in the

0:14:37.960 --> 0:14:41.920
<v Speaker 9>last couple months since this summer, really you know, say

0:14:41.920 --> 0:14:45.360
<v Speaker 9>flattering things about Donald Trump. He called the president elect

0:14:45.400 --> 0:14:47.480
<v Speaker 9>before he was elected back in the fall. Now he's

0:14:47.480 --> 0:14:49.600
<v Speaker 9>showing up at mar A Lago for dinner. I think

0:14:49.680 --> 0:14:51.800
<v Speaker 9>your instinct is pretty spot on, which is that this

0:14:51.880 --> 0:14:55.240
<v Speaker 9>has been a tumultuous relationship for several years now, and

0:14:55.440 --> 0:14:58.120
<v Speaker 9>it's certainly in Mark Zuckerberg's best interest to make sure

0:14:58.120 --> 0:15:01.360
<v Speaker 9>that Donald Trump at the very least things him as neutral, right,

0:15:01.480 --> 0:15:04.760
<v Speaker 9>so that he's not coming after him and attacking his businesses.

0:15:05.040 --> 0:15:05.520
<v Speaker 7>For sure.

0:15:05.600 --> 0:15:08.720
<v Speaker 4>And he did make a comment after the assassination attempt,

0:15:08.720 --> 0:15:10.720
<v Speaker 4>the first one saying seeing Donald Trump get up after

0:15:10.720 --> 0:15:12.160
<v Speaker 4>getting shot on the face and Pump's fist in the

0:15:12.160 --> 0:15:13.800
<v Speaker 4>air with the American flag is one of the most

0:15:13.840 --> 0:15:16.080
<v Speaker 4>badass things I've ever seen in my life. So he

0:15:16.160 --> 0:15:19.760
<v Speaker 4>has been quite you know, complimentary of the president elect.

0:15:20.160 --> 0:15:22.800
<v Speaker 4>What could the president elect do though, and just in

0:15:22.880 --> 0:15:25.560
<v Speaker 4>terms of the company, not Zuckerberg personally. You know, you

0:15:25.640 --> 0:15:27.640
<v Speaker 4>can blacklist him from mar A Lago. He can do

0:15:27.640 --> 0:15:30.320
<v Speaker 4>whatever he wants to Zuckerberg personally, but he would need

0:15:30.360 --> 0:15:32.920
<v Speaker 4>someone like Alena Khnon board to actually hurt the company,

0:15:32.920 --> 0:15:33.040
<v Speaker 4>you know.

0:15:34.240 --> 0:15:36.560
<v Speaker 9>I think, well, it sort of depends on what you

0:15:36.720 --> 0:15:38.640
<v Speaker 9>described by hert or what you mean by her right.

0:15:38.680 --> 0:15:41.720
<v Speaker 9>I think what we saw after the twenty sixteen election

0:15:42.280 --> 0:15:45.120
<v Speaker 9>was that Facebook really got bogged down with you know,

0:15:45.160 --> 0:15:48.280
<v Speaker 9>all of these claims of Russian interference and Mark Zuckerberg

0:15:48.360 --> 0:15:51.840
<v Speaker 9>being summoned to d C every year to answer these questions.

0:15:51.880 --> 0:15:53.480
<v Speaker 8>It's just a lot of distractions, right.

0:15:53.520 --> 0:15:56.320
<v Speaker 9>I feel like that's the kind of world that Donald

0:15:56.320 --> 0:15:58.280
<v Speaker 9>Trump and Congress could create for Mark Zuckerberg.

0:15:58.320 --> 0:16:01.000
<v Speaker 8>They could just make his life much less enjoyable.

0:16:01.080 --> 0:16:04.040
<v Speaker 9>Now, on top of that, as you guys mentioned, Elon

0:16:04.160 --> 0:16:06.080
<v Speaker 9>Musk is in the picture right, and Elon and Mark

0:16:06.120 --> 0:16:07.680
<v Speaker 9>Zuckerberg are not friends.

0:16:08.160 --> 0:16:10.160
<v Speaker 8>They have a very healthy rivalry.

0:16:10.480 --> 0:16:13.040
<v Speaker 9>And so you know, now you have the president's sort

0:16:13.080 --> 0:16:17.440
<v Speaker 9>of top advisor who's an anti Facebook guy. And so

0:16:17.640 --> 0:16:20.680
<v Speaker 9>I do think that there's this, you know, potential threat

0:16:21.080 --> 0:16:24.160
<v Speaker 9>that the administration could simply make Mark Zuckerberg's path these

0:16:24.200 --> 0:16:26.840
<v Speaker 9>next four years very difficult if they want to. And

0:16:26.880 --> 0:16:29.880
<v Speaker 9>so that's again why you see him showing up to

0:16:29.880 --> 0:16:31.479
<v Speaker 9>have dinner the night before Thanksgiving.

0:16:32.000 --> 0:16:32.200
<v Speaker 3>Kurt.

0:16:32.240 --> 0:16:34.600
<v Speaker 2>There's this idea, and we saw this actually play out

0:16:34.680 --> 0:16:37.720
<v Speaker 2>a few months ago in the vice presidential candidate debate

0:16:38.040 --> 0:16:42.000
<v Speaker 2>with JD Vance talking about censorship on social media platforms

0:16:42.000 --> 0:16:45.360
<v Speaker 2>and this idea of this anti conservative bias. And you know,

0:16:45.400 --> 0:16:47.680
<v Speaker 2>I haven't seen these numbers in a while. But what

0:16:48.080 --> 0:16:50.720
<v Speaker 2>we have tended to see is that actually Facebook as

0:16:50.760 --> 0:16:53.400
<v Speaker 2>a social platform is really good to conservatives in terms

0:16:53.400 --> 0:16:56.840
<v Speaker 2>of the most prominent voices. You know, they get a

0:16:56.840 --> 0:17:00.160
<v Speaker 2>lot of their traffic coming from the social platform. Is

0:17:00.160 --> 0:17:03.400
<v Speaker 2>there any credence to the idea that there is anti

0:17:03.400 --> 0:17:06.320
<v Speaker 2>conservative bias on some of these social platforms that that

0:17:06.440 --> 0:17:07.400
<v Speaker 2>Zuck and company run.

0:17:08.840 --> 0:17:10.760
<v Speaker 9>I mean, gosh, Tim, We've been talking about this for

0:17:11.119 --> 0:17:13.440
<v Speaker 9>years at this point, right, and I feel like it's

0:17:13.480 --> 0:17:17.560
<v Speaker 9>always sort of been a perceived bias, right. I think

0:17:17.600 --> 0:17:20.640
<v Speaker 9>if you no one's really come out and shown real

0:17:20.760 --> 0:17:23.359
<v Speaker 9>hard figures to say like, hey, look, the companies are

0:17:24.000 --> 0:17:28.159
<v Speaker 9>intentionally down ranking someone simply because they are conservative or

0:17:28.200 --> 0:17:31.080
<v Speaker 9>simply because they are liberal. What I find very interesting

0:17:31.680 --> 0:17:34.959
<v Speaker 9>is that ever since Elon Musk took over X, certainly

0:17:34.960 --> 0:17:38.119
<v Speaker 9>these past six months, he has been the most pro

0:17:38.320 --> 0:17:41.359
<v Speaker 9>you know, Trump owner of any CEO or excuse we have,

0:17:41.359 --> 0:17:44.119
<v Speaker 9>any social platform we've ever seen. And yet there have

0:17:44.200 --> 0:17:48.000
<v Speaker 9>been no concerns about that, Right, There's been no concerns

0:17:48.040 --> 0:17:50.399
<v Speaker 9>on the other side that hey, what about you know,

0:17:50.480 --> 0:17:55.600
<v Speaker 9>you're suppressing left leaning voices or you're suppressing you know, democrats, right,

0:17:55.840 --> 0:17:57.760
<v Speaker 9>and so I just find it very interesting that for

0:17:57.960 --> 0:18:00.480
<v Speaker 9>years we heard about this anti conservative bias when there

0:18:00.560 --> 0:18:04.119
<v Speaker 9>was a perceived attack, and now when we have a

0:18:04.200 --> 0:18:07.840
<v Speaker 9>CEO and owner who's very blatant and openly picking a

0:18:07.880 --> 0:18:09.919
<v Speaker 9>side at political side, no one seems to have an

0:18:09.920 --> 0:18:13.160
<v Speaker 9>issue with that, right, So it is a very interesting dynamic.

0:18:13.920 --> 0:18:16.280
<v Speaker 9>I don't know, this narrative has sort of died down

0:18:16.320 --> 0:18:18.439
<v Speaker 9>a little bit on the Facebook front, but now that

0:18:18.440 --> 0:18:20.320
<v Speaker 9>Trump is back in office, I wouldn't be shocked if

0:18:20.520 --> 0:18:22.080
<v Speaker 9>we start to hear this thing come up again.

0:18:22.640 --> 0:18:26.880
<v Speaker 4>Just briefly, cards the representatives for Zuckerberg said that the

0:18:26.920 --> 0:18:29.960
<v Speaker 4>conversation was taking place at a crucial time for US innovation.

0:18:30.200 --> 0:18:32.439
<v Speaker 4>I'm just curious, is there any chance that the two

0:18:32.480 --> 0:18:35.240
<v Speaker 4>would have spoken about bydowns and what Donald Trump should

0:18:35.240 --> 0:18:36.160
<v Speaker 4>do about TikTok.

0:18:37.119 --> 0:18:40.880
<v Speaker 9>I mean, I'd be speculating, but it seems very logical

0:18:40.920 --> 0:18:43.480
<v Speaker 9>that would be top of mind that date. The January

0:18:43.520 --> 0:18:46.040
<v Speaker 9>date for the potential ban of TikTok is just a

0:18:46.040 --> 0:18:49.320
<v Speaker 9>few months away. Donald Trump talked about it on the

0:18:49.359 --> 0:18:53.120
<v Speaker 9>campaign trail. We obviously know it matters a lot to meta, right.

0:18:53.160 --> 0:18:55.800
<v Speaker 9>I think if TikTok is out of the Picture Meta

0:18:55.920 --> 0:18:58.480
<v Speaker 9>stands to benefit more than any other company out there,

0:18:58.560 --> 0:19:02.040
<v Speaker 9>so I do have have to imagine that that came up.

0:19:02.160 --> 0:19:04.480
<v Speaker 9>It's probably a little bit of a tricky situation because

0:19:04.480 --> 0:19:07.560
<v Speaker 9>Mark Zuckerberg has to sit here and probably he can't

0:19:07.600 --> 0:19:10.800
<v Speaker 9>say exactly what's maybe on his mind right for anti

0:19:10.840 --> 0:19:14.240
<v Speaker 9>competitive reasons. But I again, the timing is such that

0:19:14.280 --> 0:19:16.040
<v Speaker 9>it's hard to imagine it wouldn't have at least been

0:19:16.040 --> 0:19:16.439
<v Speaker 9>brought up.

0:19:16.640 --> 0:19:18.639
<v Speaker 4>Kurt, Thank you so much for following all of this

0:19:18.680 --> 0:19:20.800
<v Speaker 4>so closely. For us, that is Kurt Wagner, and we

0:19:20.840 --> 0:19:22.240
<v Speaker 4>will be talking to him again no doubt.

0:19:23.640 --> 0:19:27.480
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Listen live

0:19:27.600 --> 0:19:30.480
<v Speaker 1>each weekday starting a two pm Eastern on Apple car

0:19:30.520 --> 0:19:33.480
<v Speaker 1>Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You

0:19:33.520 --> 0:19:36.800
<v Speaker 1>can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship

0:19:36.840 --> 0:19:42.400
<v Speaker 1>New York station Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty ceditle.

0:19:42.119 --> 0:19:45.840
<v Speaker 2>Officials rejecting the busiest Thanksgiving travel season yet still going

0:19:45.840 --> 0:19:47.600
<v Speaker 2>to see some final numbers in the coming days, but

0:19:47.640 --> 0:19:49.280
<v Speaker 2>check this out. In the past two days alone, the

0:19:49.280 --> 0:19:52.360
<v Speaker 2>TSA has screened more than four point two million passengers.

0:19:52.760 --> 0:19:54.920
<v Speaker 2>Join us now to share with us what travel trends

0:19:55.000 --> 0:19:58.200
<v Speaker 2>he's seeing as the season kicks off. Is Clint Henderson,

0:19:58.320 --> 0:20:01.080
<v Speaker 2>the Points Guy, Managing editor, Clint, I'm always good to

0:20:01.200 --> 0:20:04.240
<v Speaker 2>see you. Have things gone off without a hitch so.

0:20:04.240 --> 0:20:07.480
<v Speaker 10>Far, you know, remarkably, I was a little nervous about

0:20:07.560 --> 0:20:10.120
<v Speaker 10>yesterday because we had all those storms across the country.

0:20:10.320 --> 0:20:13.119
<v Speaker 10>The airlines were covered really quickly. I do feel like

0:20:13.680 --> 0:20:16.359
<v Speaker 10>all the staffing moves they've made over the past couple

0:20:16.400 --> 0:20:18.280
<v Speaker 10>of years are starting to pay dividends. You know, a

0:20:18.320 --> 0:20:22.000
<v Speaker 10>lot of airlines have invested in technology after spectacular meltdowns.

0:20:22.320 --> 0:20:23.960
<v Speaker 11>I think all that's paying dividends.

0:20:24.240 --> 0:20:26.080
<v Speaker 10>The one area I'm really worried about still is air

0:20:26.119 --> 0:20:28.359
<v Speaker 10>traffic control staff shortages.

0:20:28.400 --> 0:20:29.359
<v Speaker 11>So that's something I'm.

0:20:29.200 --> 0:20:32.800
<v Speaker 10>Watching closely, especially in Newark. But other than that, it's

0:20:32.800 --> 0:20:33.760
<v Speaker 10>been really smooth.

0:20:34.560 --> 0:20:36.119
<v Speaker 5>Why are there shortages.

0:20:37.560 --> 0:20:41.440
<v Speaker 10>It's a job that's really hard. It's really stressful, especially

0:20:41.560 --> 0:20:44.280
<v Speaker 10>in the Northeast region, the busiest part of the country.

0:20:44.440 --> 0:20:47.360
<v Speaker 10>You know, you've got Newark Airport, You've got JFK, You've

0:20:47.359 --> 0:20:50.359
<v Speaker 10>got LaGuardia. Imagine the number of planes coming in and

0:20:50.400 --> 0:20:52.720
<v Speaker 10>out of the area. One of the reasons we've seen

0:20:52.920 --> 0:20:55.200
<v Speaker 10>a little bit of an issue with ATC is because

0:20:55.200 --> 0:20:59.520
<v Speaker 10>they've moved Newark Control over to Philadelphia to try to

0:20:59.560 --> 0:21:01.200
<v Speaker 10>ease the training issues.

0:21:01.359 --> 0:21:02.720
<v Speaker 11>And so twenty.

0:21:02.440 --> 0:21:05.399
<v Speaker 10>Four ATC workers moved over to the Philly area. And

0:21:05.680 --> 0:21:07.159
<v Speaker 10>you know it's going to take some time. It's a

0:21:07.200 --> 0:21:10.239
<v Speaker 10>long term solution to a long term problem. This has

0:21:10.240 --> 0:21:14.080
<v Speaker 10>been a problem for years. Apparently a bunch of the

0:21:14.119 --> 0:21:16.520
<v Speaker 10>people that they train end up dropping out because it's

0:21:16.560 --> 0:21:19.080
<v Speaker 10>just too stressful. So that's a little bit of the

0:21:20.000 --> 0:21:21.000
<v Speaker 10>back seat there.

0:21:20.960 --> 0:21:23.040
<v Speaker 2>Okay, Clint, I want to shift gears a little bit

0:21:23.080 --> 0:21:25.280
<v Speaker 2>because now is the time of year where the airlines

0:21:25.320 --> 0:21:28.960
<v Speaker 2>start coming out with updates to their rewards programs. Delta's

0:21:28.960 --> 0:21:31.720
<v Speaker 2>certainly taken a little bit of heat for changing its

0:21:31.760 --> 0:21:36.040
<v Speaker 2>rewards program around. At the end of the day, are

0:21:36.040 --> 0:21:39.280
<v Speaker 2>these rewards programs actually still worth it given what you

0:21:39.320 --> 0:21:41.760
<v Speaker 2>get in as a reward, and given how hard it

0:21:41.800 --> 0:21:43.680
<v Speaker 2>is to achieve certain levels of status.

0:21:44.680 --> 0:21:47.480
<v Speaker 10>So you put your finger on the raging debate in

0:21:47.520 --> 0:21:49.679
<v Speaker 10>the points in Miles world right now, a lot of

0:21:50.440 --> 0:21:53.840
<v Speaker 10>my coworkers are giving up on top tier status. You're

0:21:53.880 --> 0:21:56.879
<v Speaker 10>not getting the upgrades you used to get. There's more people,

0:21:56.920 --> 0:21:59.879
<v Speaker 10>it seems like in the top tiers and the juice

0:21:59.880 --> 0:22:02.160
<v Speaker 10>is just not worth the squeeze for some people. Now

0:22:02.200 --> 0:22:05.200
<v Speaker 10>that said, I am going to keep Delta Diamond and

0:22:05.359 --> 0:22:08.800
<v Speaker 10>American Airlines Executive Platinum because I'm a tux.

0:22:09.600 --> 0:22:10.560
<v Speaker 11>Yeah but I will.

0:22:10.880 --> 0:22:13.400
<v Speaker 10>But that's not going to continue long term because it's

0:22:13.400 --> 0:22:16.520
<v Speaker 10>gotten too expensive. So one of my colleagues in the

0:22:16.560 --> 0:22:19.080
<v Speaker 10>United program is going to drop down to gold this year.

0:22:19.520 --> 0:22:22.720
<v Speaker 10>It's just it's getting harder to redeem points in miles

0:22:22.960 --> 0:22:26.400
<v Speaker 10>and you have to be more aggressive and more invested

0:22:26.800 --> 0:22:29.679
<v Speaker 10>into how to maximize it to squeeze out the perks.

0:22:29.720 --> 0:22:32.359
<v Speaker 10>But here's what I will say. We're still seeing a

0:22:32.440 --> 0:22:35.920
<v Speaker 10>ton of deals. There's still good sign up bonuses, there's

0:22:35.960 --> 0:22:40.160
<v Speaker 10>still amazing business class redemptions you can get on programs

0:22:40.200 --> 0:22:43.760
<v Speaker 10>like Air France or Air Canada Aeroplan. We do see

0:22:43.840 --> 0:22:47.359
<v Speaker 10>those those unicorn fairs we call them, even in the

0:22:47.440 --> 0:22:51.040
<v Speaker 10>US program. So for me, that's why I'm still all in,

0:22:51.480 --> 0:22:54.159
<v Speaker 10>even though I'm not getting upgraded on most of my

0:22:54.240 --> 0:22:55.160
<v Speaker 10>flights these days.

0:22:55.960 --> 0:22:58.439
<v Speaker 4>What about the hotels, Clint, You know, some of the

0:22:58.800 --> 0:23:02.399
<v Speaker 4>branded hotels are perhaps worth signing up to their loyalty

0:23:02.400 --> 0:23:05.400
<v Speaker 4>programs for because you may eventually get a night for free.

0:23:05.680 --> 0:23:07.719
<v Speaker 4>But some you know, you really have to spend a

0:23:07.760 --> 0:23:10.040
<v Speaker 4>lot of time in them. I'm thinking of JAMAIRA and

0:23:10.119 --> 0:23:12.200
<v Speaker 4>some of these really top to your hotels.

0:23:12.960 --> 0:23:16.400
<v Speaker 11>Yeah, and the truth is or seasons, some of these other.

0:23:16.240 --> 0:23:18.600
<v Speaker 5>Programs don't even have loyalty programs.

0:23:18.320 --> 0:23:21.560
<v Speaker 11>Right exactly. So that's the thing for me that I know.

0:23:22.240 --> 0:23:25.240
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I was, how do you know that that's pretty impressive?

0:23:25.359 --> 0:23:26.080
<v Speaker 3>So you're staying at.

0:23:26.000 --> 0:23:31.159
<v Speaker 10>The Yeah, that's why my team focuses on Hyatt, Hilton

0:23:31.440 --> 0:23:35.520
<v Speaker 10>and IHG and Marriott because we know we're going to

0:23:35.600 --> 0:23:38.119
<v Speaker 10>get something for all those days we're putting in. But

0:23:38.240 --> 0:23:41.359
<v Speaker 10>I will say World of Hyatt to me gets the

0:23:41.400 --> 0:23:44.080
<v Speaker 10>gold crown because they really do take care of their

0:23:44.119 --> 0:23:47.199
<v Speaker 10>best customers. If you get sixty nights a year, you

0:23:47.280 --> 0:23:49.840
<v Speaker 10>get upgrade certificates, there's all kinds of goodies, and their

0:23:49.920 --> 0:23:52.919
<v Speaker 10>points have not been devalued like some other programs have.

0:23:53.480 --> 0:23:56.119
<v Speaker 10>So you can stay at a park Hyatt anywhere in

0:23:56.160 --> 0:23:58.600
<v Speaker 10>the world for thirty forty thousand points.

0:23:58.680 --> 0:24:01.399
<v Speaker 11>So to me, that's a really valuable program.

0:24:02.040 --> 0:24:04.520
<v Speaker 2>Okay, so hotel is still some value out there to

0:24:04.560 --> 0:24:04.920
<v Speaker 2>be found.

0:24:05.000 --> 0:24:05.480
<v Speaker 3>Airlines.

0:24:05.560 --> 0:24:09.080
<v Speaker 2>Perhaps my problem with these airline loyalty programs, Clint is

0:24:09.440 --> 0:24:11.639
<v Speaker 2>if you get to the next level and something, it

0:24:11.720 --> 0:24:15.040
<v Speaker 2>basically oftentimes just means you can check another bag, Like

0:24:15.080 --> 0:24:18.680
<v Speaker 2>I'm not seeing the actual value here.

0:24:18.240 --> 0:24:18.480
<v Speaker 3>You're not.

0:24:18.480 --> 0:24:20.600
<v Speaker 2>It doesn't seem like you're being treated any different. You're

0:24:20.600 --> 0:24:23.480
<v Speaker 2>not getting space at the front of the plane. It's

0:24:23.520 --> 0:24:24.560
<v Speaker 2>sort of like kind of a joke.

0:24:24.640 --> 0:24:24.840
<v Speaker 1>Now.

0:24:25.680 --> 0:24:28.720
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, So it's a really big problem for the last

0:24:28.720 --> 0:24:31.800
<v Speaker 10>minute business travelers because if you're flying Delta, for example,

0:24:31.920 --> 0:24:34.199
<v Speaker 10>hub to hub, you're not going to get even a

0:24:34.200 --> 0:24:36.600
<v Speaker 10>main cabin extra seat, even if you have taught your status,

0:24:36.640 --> 0:24:39.080
<v Speaker 10>because those seats are all sold. They're all gone. And

0:24:39.119 --> 0:24:41.680
<v Speaker 10>that's just coach. That's not even to say upgrade list.

0:24:41.760 --> 0:24:44.639
<v Speaker 10>I've seen upgrade list of fifty people, fifty five people.

0:24:45.040 --> 0:24:49.840
<v Speaker 10>So yes, it is a truth that if you want

0:24:49.880 --> 0:24:52.200
<v Speaker 10>first class these days, you have to buy first class.

0:24:52.440 --> 0:24:55.720
<v Speaker 10>I will say, though, even gold level status on most

0:24:55.760 --> 0:24:59.160
<v Speaker 10>of the airline programs, if you're booking a month out,

0:24:59.240 --> 0:25:00.840
<v Speaker 10>you're still going to be a to get extra leg

0:25:00.880 --> 0:25:05.760
<v Speaker 10>room seats, extra baggage allowance, early boarding, and a possibility

0:25:05.760 --> 0:25:08.760
<v Speaker 10>of an upgrade. So for me, there's still some value

0:25:08.760 --> 0:25:10.760
<v Speaker 10>to be had there. It's just getting harder and harder

0:25:10.800 --> 0:25:11.679
<v Speaker 10>to the possibility.

0:25:11.720 --> 0:25:13.560
<v Speaker 2>Okay, maybe, Hey, before we let you go, Clinn, I

0:25:13.560 --> 0:25:15.080
<v Speaker 2>want to talk a little bit about what twenty twenty

0:25:15.080 --> 0:25:17.720
<v Speaker 2>five is looking like. It certainly seems like this year

0:25:18.320 --> 0:25:21.480
<v Speaker 2>and last year were huge years for Americans traveling to

0:25:21.560 --> 0:25:24.280
<v Speaker 2>and from Asia. A lot of folks, at least anecdotally,

0:25:24.560 --> 0:25:26.520
<v Speaker 2>who I spoke to, a lot of colleagues making some

0:25:26.600 --> 0:25:29.640
<v Speaker 2>big trips to Japan and the like. What's hot comes

0:25:29.640 --> 0:25:31.400
<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty five, so.

0:25:31.440 --> 0:25:33.560
<v Speaker 11>You hit it. Japan is hot, remains hot.

0:25:33.560 --> 0:25:37.080
<v Speaker 10>The the US dollar wo yes, very In fact, that's the

0:25:37.119 --> 0:25:38.639
<v Speaker 10>one part of the world that I'm not seeing a

0:25:38.640 --> 0:25:41.600
<v Speaker 10>lot of deals. So you're still not seeing I'm seeing

0:25:41.600 --> 0:25:44.440
<v Speaker 10>five hundred dollars sub five hundred dollars round trip coach

0:25:44.480 --> 0:25:47.600
<v Speaker 10>fairs to Europe regularly. I'm not seeing those same deals

0:25:47.600 --> 0:25:50.560
<v Speaker 10>to Japan these days. And Australia and New Zealand also

0:25:50.680 --> 0:25:53.160
<v Speaker 10>very hot. But you want to go where the US

0:25:53.200 --> 0:25:57.040
<v Speaker 10>dollar is stronger, especially if you can find a.

0:25:56.960 --> 0:25:58.159
<v Speaker 11>Decent price ticket.

0:25:58.800 --> 0:26:00.919
<v Speaker 10>I'm going back to Japan, but I'm using points of

0:26:00.960 --> 0:26:02.080
<v Speaker 10>miles for my trip.

0:26:02.440 --> 0:26:04.800
<v Speaker 11>So you got to be smart about these things.

0:26:04.840 --> 0:26:06.960
<v Speaker 4>Okay, So we need to know a little more detailed

0:26:07.000 --> 0:26:08.320
<v Speaker 4>where with carriers.

0:26:09.240 --> 0:26:12.119
<v Speaker 10>Okay, So I used Alaska miles to book Starluck's a

0:26:12.200 --> 0:26:16.879
<v Speaker 10>New Asian New Taiwanese airline in business class seventy thousand

0:26:16.880 --> 0:26:19.080
<v Speaker 10>miles one way. And then I was able to use

0:26:19.080 --> 0:26:23.840
<v Speaker 10>American Airlines miles to book Japan Airlines via American for

0:26:24.160 --> 0:26:26.920
<v Speaker 10>sixty thousand miles in business class. So the deals are

0:26:26.960 --> 0:26:29.119
<v Speaker 10>out there. You just have to really hunt and peck,

0:26:29.359 --> 0:26:31.800
<v Speaker 10>and you have to you have to educate yourself a

0:26:31.840 --> 0:26:32.880
<v Speaker 10>little bit on points and miles.

0:26:32.920 --> 0:26:34.800
<v Speaker 11>But the deals are there, I promise, do you.

0:26:34.960 --> 0:26:37.119
<v Speaker 2>I mean, I've tried to do the things that I

0:26:37.119 --> 0:26:40.359
<v Speaker 2>see online on sites like yours Clint, where it's like, okay,

0:26:40.359 --> 0:26:42.320
<v Speaker 2>sign up for this plan because then you can redeem

0:26:42.320 --> 0:26:45.560
<v Speaker 2>miles for this domestic carrier, and have never had any

0:26:45.640 --> 0:26:48.240
<v Speaker 2>luck doing it. It's like sign up for the international plan,

0:26:49.320 --> 0:26:51.920
<v Speaker 2>do a search that way, and there's still no flights.

0:26:52.160 --> 0:26:52.919
<v Speaker 3>Like, what's the secret?

0:26:53.040 --> 0:26:57.040
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, So this secret is flexible calendar is flexible dates.

0:26:57.080 --> 0:26:59.120
<v Speaker 10>So if you're if you want to travel when every

0:26:59.119 --> 0:27:02.320
<v Speaker 10>other family wants to travel for spring break, you're probably

0:27:02.359 --> 0:27:05.080
<v Speaker 10>not going to score. But if you can hunt and

0:27:05.160 --> 0:27:08.840
<v Speaker 10>peck and find that availability, plans like Air France Flying

0:27:08.840 --> 0:27:12.359
<v Speaker 10>Blue KLM their program. I like the Aeroplane Air Canada

0:27:12.640 --> 0:27:17.560
<v Speaker 10>program because you can usually find availability. It's just sporadic,

0:27:17.680 --> 0:27:20.159
<v Speaker 10>so you just have to really hunt and peck. And

0:27:20.200 --> 0:27:23.640
<v Speaker 10>the other thing is there's these new points search startups

0:27:23.720 --> 0:27:28.400
<v Speaker 10>like points Me that you can sometimes find in big

0:27:28.480 --> 0:27:30.960
<v Speaker 10>sweeping searches of the calendar. You can find those those

0:27:31.040 --> 0:27:33.840
<v Speaker 10>dates that do have that Unicorn availability.

0:27:33.920 --> 0:27:38.679
<v Speaker 4>So kening those sub five hundred dollars Europe trips so regularly.

0:27:38.760 --> 0:27:41.680
<v Speaker 10>American Airlines right now has a Black Friday sale under

0:27:41.720 --> 0:27:44.720
<v Speaker 10>five hundred dollars from cities like Charlotte. From cities like

0:27:44.760 --> 0:27:48.160
<v Speaker 10>New York to London for under five hundred dollars round trip.

0:27:48.320 --> 0:27:51.159
<v Speaker 10>But tap air Portugal some of the you're lesser known

0:27:51.240 --> 0:27:51.679
<v Speaker 10>Europe go.

0:27:51.760 --> 0:27:53.440
<v Speaker 4>To cost eight hundred dollars to get from New York

0:27:53.480 --> 0:27:55.800
<v Speaker 4>to Charlotte's well.

0:27:56.000 --> 0:27:58.119
<v Speaker 10>But those flights are available from New York to London

0:27:58.200 --> 0:28:00.000
<v Speaker 10>under five hundred dollars on American Airline.

0:28:00.280 --> 0:28:02.680
<v Speaker 3>Just take the bus, take the bus to Charlotte.

0:28:02.680 --> 0:28:06.960
<v Speaker 5>I don't need to yeah, I just need my American in.

0:28:07.040 --> 0:28:08.200
<v Speaker 11>London American Airlines.

0:28:08.280 --> 0:28:11.480
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, Hey, it's what about sort of warm places to

0:28:11.520 --> 0:28:13.720
<v Speaker 2>go as it gets cold outside. What are you seeing

0:28:13.720 --> 0:28:16.200
<v Speaker 2>over the Christmas holiday and what are you seeing in

0:28:16.280 --> 0:28:18.760
<v Speaker 2>the early part of January for like President's Weekend and stuff.

0:28:19.359 --> 0:28:21.719
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, so hot tip the places that were the hottest

0:28:21.760 --> 0:28:25.560
<v Speaker 10>coming out of the pandemic, so Florida, Hawaii, Las Vegas.

0:28:25.760 --> 0:28:28.920
<v Speaker 10>Those are on sale now, so we're seeing more reasonable prices.

0:28:29.119 --> 0:28:32.119
<v Speaker 10>And Maui regularly, I'm seeing three hundred dollars under three

0:28:32.200 --> 0:28:34.639
<v Speaker 10>hundred dollars round trip tickets. The problem with Maui is

0:28:34.680 --> 0:28:37.399
<v Speaker 10>the hotels were still pretty expensive, but there are deals

0:28:37.440 --> 0:28:40.680
<v Speaker 10>to be had to places that maybe you didn't get

0:28:40.680 --> 0:28:42.160
<v Speaker 10>to go to out of the pandemic because they were

0:28:42.240 --> 0:28:46.600
<v Speaker 10>just too expensive, including Miami and including what is like Maui,

0:28:46.680 --> 0:28:47.680
<v Speaker 10>Kawaii and Hawaii.

0:28:48.480 --> 0:28:50.880
<v Speaker 2>Glenn Henderson managing at her at the Points Guy. Next

0:28:50.880 --> 0:28:52.120
<v Speaker 2>time I have a Points question, I'm just going to

0:28:52.160 --> 0:28:57.600
<v Speaker 2>send him an email. I got these United plants. They

0:28:57.600 --> 0:28:59.240
<v Speaker 2>feel like they're not worth anything because I can never

0:28:59.280 --> 0:28:59.840
<v Speaker 2>find a flight.

0:29:01.480 --> 0:29:05.360
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Listen live

0:29:05.440 --> 0:29:08.239
<v Speaker 1>each weekday starting at two pm Eastern on Apple car

0:29:08.360 --> 0:29:11.520
<v Speaker 1>Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business You can

0:29:11.560 --> 0:29:14.800
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0:29:14.880 --> 0:29:18.480
<v Speaker 1>York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:29:21.560 --> 0:29:25.680
<v Speaker 4>Uriam Timmer is Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Management

0:29:25.760 --> 0:29:28.400
<v Speaker 4>and Research. We were just saying a little bit earlier, Urian,

0:29:28.480 --> 0:29:31.800
<v Speaker 4>that this has been quite the fall and winter for macro,

0:29:31.920 --> 0:29:34.920
<v Speaker 4>global macro, in particularly US macro. There was a lot

0:29:34.920 --> 0:29:37.560
<v Speaker 4>of surprises now in a season where we weren't quite

0:29:37.560 --> 0:29:38.880
<v Speaker 4>sure that we'd be that many surprises.

0:29:39.680 --> 0:29:41.680
<v Speaker 12>It sure has and by the way, it's a pleasure

0:29:41.880 --> 0:29:45.080
<v Speaker 12>to be here. But really the last four years has

0:29:45.120 --> 0:29:47.760
<v Speaker 12>been full of surprises. Really that we're still dealing with

0:29:48.720 --> 0:29:51.479
<v Speaker 12>sort of the how to interpret market cycles in the

0:29:51.520 --> 0:29:54.760
<v Speaker 12>aftermath of the pandemic of course, and all the things

0:29:54.800 --> 0:29:57.800
<v Speaker 12>that change. You know, two years ago with the inverted curve,

0:29:57.840 --> 0:30:01.080
<v Speaker 12>we roll expecting that recession, and here we are with

0:30:01.160 --> 0:30:05.440
<v Speaker 12>the economy remaining quite resilience, resilient inflation or at least

0:30:05.440 --> 0:30:09.200
<v Speaker 12>the rate of inflation getting closer to the FEDS target,

0:30:09.240 --> 0:30:12.680
<v Speaker 12>although it is being more stubborn in the last few months,

0:30:12.680 --> 0:30:15.840
<v Speaker 12>with the core PC now taking higher to two point eight.

0:30:16.640 --> 0:30:18.959
<v Speaker 12>But the earnings have come through and that is the

0:30:18.960 --> 0:30:21.880
<v Speaker 12>most important thing, you know, you ask anyone at Fidelity

0:30:21.880 --> 0:30:25.480
<v Speaker 12>in Boston at the Mothership. It's price follows earnings, and

0:30:25.880 --> 0:30:29.000
<v Speaker 12>earnings is what we are looking at. And earning season,

0:30:29.040 --> 0:30:33.360
<v Speaker 12>of course is pretty much over nine percent growth year

0:30:33.400 --> 0:30:36.640
<v Speaker 12>over year, and the growth rate for the calendar year

0:30:36.720 --> 0:30:39.080
<v Speaker 12>will be around ten percent. It looks like this year

0:30:39.680 --> 0:30:43.040
<v Speaker 12>and expectations for twelve next year that might come down

0:30:43.120 --> 0:30:45.880
<v Speaker 12>a few points. But you know, if we are getting

0:30:45.880 --> 0:30:50.600
<v Speaker 12>into an animal spirits cycle after the fairly decisive election,

0:30:51.320 --> 0:30:55.240
<v Speaker 12>and a new capital formation cycle begins, and the AI

0:30:55.600 --> 0:30:59.320
<v Speaker 12>boom already is sort of forcing all companies to go

0:30:59.360 --> 0:31:02.600
<v Speaker 12>into the CapX mode. The hope is, of course that

0:31:02.640 --> 0:31:05.560
<v Speaker 12>we get a true productivity boom. We'll have to see

0:31:05.840 --> 0:31:10.080
<v Speaker 12>if it actually happens. But if that's the case, then

0:31:10.120 --> 0:31:12.440
<v Speaker 12>you can get a higher sort of speed limit for

0:31:12.480 --> 0:31:16.719
<v Speaker 12>the economy, which means the economy can grow faster without

0:31:16.880 --> 0:31:20.440
<v Speaker 12>inflaming the inflation rate, right, and I think that is

0:31:21.120 --> 0:31:25.840
<v Speaker 12>the great hope for this market. My biggest not a concern,

0:31:25.920 --> 0:31:29.120
<v Speaker 12>but I think one of the impediments will be next

0:31:29.200 --> 0:31:33.520
<v Speaker 12>year that this is not like twenty seventeen, right when

0:31:34.240 --> 0:31:37.800
<v Speaker 12>the first term of the president started, and obviously we

0:31:37.840 --> 0:31:40.520
<v Speaker 12>had the tax cuts happening in twenty seventeen. That year

0:31:40.640 --> 0:31:44.320
<v Speaker 12>was a very robust bull market, led by both earnings

0:31:44.360 --> 0:31:49.560
<v Speaker 12>growth and valuation expansion. But you know, rates from much lower.

0:31:49.600 --> 0:31:52.320
<v Speaker 12>The FED was barely off of zero. Back then, inflation

0:31:52.560 --> 0:31:55.880
<v Speaker 12>was not a story. And in twenty twenty five, you know,

0:31:55.960 --> 0:31:59.000
<v Speaker 12>that is a different landscape. And so one of the

0:31:59.000 --> 0:32:01.840
<v Speaker 12>things that I look at is interest rates. You know,

0:32:02.160 --> 0:32:04.560
<v Speaker 12>the ten years behaved, it's four twenty, it was at

0:32:05.160 --> 0:32:07.400
<v Speaker 12>closer to four fifteen. It was at five percent a

0:32:07.520 --> 0:32:11.200
<v Speaker 12>year ago, and so so far, so good there, but

0:32:11.800 --> 0:32:15.720
<v Speaker 12>occasional flare ups in yields. I think is likely to

0:32:15.760 --> 0:32:19.560
<v Speaker 12>be not a bull market ender, but at least an interrupter.

0:32:20.000 --> 0:32:24.320
<v Speaker 2>There's this policy proposal or a series of policy proposals

0:32:24.320 --> 0:32:27.360
<v Speaker 2>from the Trump administration that we got on the campaign trail,

0:32:27.400 --> 0:32:30.040
<v Speaker 2>and I'm wondering how you're factoring that into your analysis.

0:32:30.360 --> 0:32:31.120
<v Speaker 3>And it's the.

0:32:31.080 --> 0:32:33.840
<v Speaker 2>Idea that, Okay, if these if he goes through with

0:32:33.920 --> 0:32:37.560
<v Speaker 2>these tariffs that he actually announced earlier this week, what

0:32:37.680 --> 0:32:40.840
<v Speaker 2>could that do to inflation here in the US? And

0:32:40.880 --> 0:32:44.280
<v Speaker 2>then also what about mass deportations? And whenever I talk

0:32:44.320 --> 0:32:47.320
<v Speaker 2>about this, I say, obviously the human can you know

0:32:47.360 --> 0:32:49.560
<v Speaker 2>the human side of the story, putting that aside, and

0:32:49.680 --> 0:32:52.720
<v Speaker 2>just thinking about the economic effects of deporting millions of

0:32:52.760 --> 0:32:55.160
<v Speaker 2>people over a short period of time, many of whom

0:32:55.200 --> 0:32:57.760
<v Speaker 2>do work in jobs here in the US. So I'm

0:32:57.800 --> 0:33:01.200
<v Speaker 2>wondering what you're looking at in terms of economic shocks there.

0:33:01.840 --> 0:33:04.600
<v Speaker 12>Yeah, it is a concern, and of course no one

0:33:04.880 --> 0:33:08.800
<v Speaker 12>really knows whether the tariffs are going to be just

0:33:09.240 --> 0:33:12.400
<v Speaker 12>a bat that the president carries around to try to

0:33:12.680 --> 0:33:15.760
<v Speaker 12>get better deals. I mean, certainly the announcements with Mexico

0:33:15.840 --> 0:33:18.360
<v Speaker 12>and then the meeting or the phone call with the

0:33:18.440 --> 0:33:21.920
<v Speaker 12>Mexican president kind of give an indication that this is

0:33:22.000 --> 0:33:27.400
<v Speaker 12>really to start negotiations for better trade deals. But it

0:33:27.440 --> 0:33:31.240
<v Speaker 12>of course is a risk because if importers have higher costs,

0:33:31.280 --> 0:33:35.120
<v Speaker 12>they either need to pass those on to consumers or

0:33:35.280 --> 0:33:37.640
<v Speaker 12>it eats into their profit margins. And then it's a

0:33:37.720 --> 0:33:40.960
<v Speaker 12>question of to what degree other things offset. Right, the

0:33:41.000 --> 0:33:43.480
<v Speaker 12>dollar is very strong, so that would be an offset,

0:33:43.520 --> 0:33:47.480
<v Speaker 12>for instance, So it remains unclear to what degree it

0:33:47.520 --> 0:33:51.320
<v Speaker 12>would be inflationary, and of course deportations would presumably be

0:33:51.400 --> 0:33:54.160
<v Speaker 12>inflationary as well. And if you think about what the

0:33:54.160 --> 0:33:57.760
<v Speaker 12>FED and the economy has accomplished in the last couple

0:33:57.760 --> 0:34:01.480
<v Speaker 12>of years, right with the great reset in twenty twenty two.

0:34:02.360 --> 0:34:05.640
<v Speaker 12>The FED was trying to obviously slay the inflation dragon,

0:34:05.720 --> 0:34:09.440
<v Speaker 12>which it has at least partially done, and it was

0:34:09.480 --> 0:34:13.080
<v Speaker 12>trying to rebalance the labor market, which was in overdrive

0:34:13.200 --> 0:34:16.040
<v Speaker 12>back then, right because the economy when it shut down

0:34:16.120 --> 0:34:20.160
<v Speaker 12>during COVID, obviously many people left the labor force, and

0:34:20.200 --> 0:34:23.360
<v Speaker 12>then when it reopened, those people did not return right away,

0:34:23.719 --> 0:34:27.319
<v Speaker 12>so that there were lots of job vacancies that were unmet.

0:34:27.640 --> 0:34:30.400
<v Speaker 12>Now that supply has returned, and immigration, I think is

0:34:30.440 --> 0:34:33.080
<v Speaker 12>certainly part of that, and so the labor market is

0:34:33.080 --> 0:34:36.000
<v Speaker 12>in perfect balance right now. It has reset itself, not

0:34:36.080 --> 0:34:39.400
<v Speaker 12>through layoffs but through people coming back in. If you

0:34:39.480 --> 0:34:43.080
<v Speaker 12>start deporting people who are working in the labor force,

0:34:43.480 --> 0:34:45.919
<v Speaker 12>obviously you run the risk that you then upset that.

0:34:45.840 --> 0:34:48.120
<v Speaker 4>Balance, right exactly, So, if the market is only expecting

0:34:48.160 --> 0:34:51.360
<v Speaker 4>two to three interest rate costs next year, should it

0:34:51.440 --> 0:34:53.439
<v Speaker 4>really be rethinking that in the sense that the FED

0:34:53.440 --> 0:34:55.640
<v Speaker 4>should possibly get in front of some.

0:34:55.719 --> 0:34:57.360
<v Speaker 3>Of this, Yes, I think so.

0:34:57.719 --> 0:34:59.800
<v Speaker 12>So the FED is cut, of course twice by fifty

0:34:59.800 --> 0:35:03.320
<v Speaker 12>and by twenty five. I look at various iterations of

0:35:03.400 --> 0:35:06.080
<v Speaker 12>the tailor rule. Of course, the rule made famous by

0:35:06.440 --> 0:35:10.600
<v Speaker 12>John John Taylor back in the early nineties, and no

0:35:10.600 --> 0:35:13.719
<v Speaker 12>matter how you slice it, the Fed is in the

0:35:13.800 --> 0:35:17.160
<v Speaker 12>right place having cut rates a few times, like the

0:35:17.200 --> 0:35:21.759
<v Speaker 12>tailor rule completely supports lower rates than they were. But

0:35:22.160 --> 0:35:26.040
<v Speaker 12>going forward it is by no means clear that a

0:35:26.080 --> 0:35:28.520
<v Speaker 12>lot more rate cuts are in line. And of course,

0:35:28.560 --> 0:35:31.200
<v Speaker 12>when we started this year, the market was expecting seven

0:35:31.280 --> 0:35:34.359
<v Speaker 12>rate cuts just this calendar year, and then a few

0:35:34.400 --> 0:35:36.480
<v Speaker 12>months ago and we had the growth scare, it was

0:35:36.520 --> 0:35:39.879
<v Speaker 12>down to a two handle on the terminal rate. Now

0:35:39.920 --> 0:35:42.759
<v Speaker 12>you know we got sixty six percent chance of a

0:35:42.840 --> 0:35:45.480
<v Speaker 12>rate cut in December. I think the Fed can go

0:35:45.560 --> 0:35:48.000
<v Speaker 12>either way. The economy obviously is not falling off a

0:35:48.040 --> 0:35:52.319
<v Speaker 12>cliff waiting for another rate cut. But my sense is

0:35:52.360 --> 0:35:55.359
<v Speaker 12>that the Fed was right to do what they've done

0:35:55.400 --> 0:35:58.680
<v Speaker 12>so far. But I would hold some more rate cuts

0:35:58.719 --> 0:36:01.680
<v Speaker 12>in reserve rather than giving them to the markets and

0:36:01.760 --> 0:36:03.839
<v Speaker 12>running the risk that you don't have to take them back,

0:36:03.920 --> 0:36:06.960
<v Speaker 12>because I think one of the risks sort of economically

0:36:07.080 --> 0:36:10.600
<v Speaker 12>is that inflation went from nine to three in twenty

0:36:10.640 --> 0:36:12.600
<v Speaker 12>twenty two to now. If you look at the CPI,

0:36:12.800 --> 0:36:16.840
<v Speaker 12>the core pc PCE went from six to two point eight,

0:36:17.840 --> 0:36:22.200
<v Speaker 12>So inflation is better than it was, but it's still

0:36:22.239 --> 0:36:26.520
<v Speaker 12>above two, right, and oftentimes the pendulum has to swing

0:36:26.560 --> 0:36:29.799
<v Speaker 12>all the way through to stay at two. So if

0:36:29.800 --> 0:36:34.440
<v Speaker 12>the economy now re accelerates at a time when inflation

0:36:34.560 --> 0:36:38.000
<v Speaker 12>has not yet been slayed, you run the risk that

0:36:38.200 --> 0:36:40.600
<v Speaker 12>then that reaccelerates and then the FED is in a

0:36:40.719 --> 0:36:42.040
<v Speaker 12>much more difficult position.

0:36:42.160 --> 0:36:42.359
<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

0:36:42.360 --> 0:36:44.560
<v Speaker 2>I don't envy the job that Jay Powell has right

0:36:44.600 --> 0:36:46.120
<v Speaker 2>now for many many reasons.

0:36:46.360 --> 0:36:48.520
<v Speaker 3>Hey, I'm just finally switching gears.

0:36:48.560 --> 0:36:51.480
<v Speaker 2>A little bit seven trillion dollars in cash on the

0:36:51.480 --> 0:36:54.000
<v Speaker 2>sidelines right now, at least in money market funds as

0:36:54.040 --> 0:36:55.480
<v Speaker 2>of just a couple of weeks ago.

0:36:55.880 --> 0:36:56.799
<v Speaker 3>Where does that cash go?

0:36:56.880 --> 0:37:00.720
<v Speaker 12>And when I've been asked that question so many times,

0:37:00.800 --> 0:37:06.200
<v Speaker 12>and my sense has been so I follow this. You know,

0:37:06.360 --> 0:37:08.760
<v Speaker 12>for Ally's one of the big players in the money

0:37:08.760 --> 0:37:12.480
<v Speaker 12>market fund industry. So the way I look at the

0:37:12.560 --> 0:37:14.879
<v Speaker 12>cash on the sidelines is I look at it as

0:37:14.920 --> 0:37:18.040
<v Speaker 12>a percentage of the equity market cap. And there's a

0:37:18.080 --> 0:37:20.239
<v Speaker 12>percentage of the market cap. It's around ten and a

0:37:20.280 --> 0:37:24.800
<v Speaker 12>half percent, which is exactly in line with the historical average.

0:37:25.440 --> 0:37:28.680
<v Speaker 12>So there's a lot of cash, but equities are worth

0:37:28.760 --> 0:37:32.000
<v Speaker 12>a lot, So how much comes out and can it

0:37:32.040 --> 0:37:35.000
<v Speaker 12>move the equity markets is to me the big question.

0:37:35.120 --> 0:37:38.040
<v Speaker 12>But the caveat with the mountain of cash thing is like,

0:37:38.080 --> 0:37:40.680
<v Speaker 12>for instance, during COVID, money went out of the stock

0:37:40.719 --> 0:37:44.240
<v Speaker 12>market into money markets earning zero because people were panicking,

0:37:44.719 --> 0:37:47.560
<v Speaker 12>and so that truly was a flight to quality trade then,

0:37:47.719 --> 0:37:51.120
<v Speaker 12>which was then later reversed of course when the market

0:37:51.200 --> 0:37:53.000
<v Speaker 12>was at a high. Right, it came out at the low,

0:37:53.400 --> 0:37:55.400
<v Speaker 12>comes back in at new high. So it shows you

0:37:55.440 --> 0:37:59.200
<v Speaker 12>the perils of market timing. This mountain of cash came

0:37:59.239 --> 0:38:03.400
<v Speaker 12>out of the bank except two years ago during Silicon

0:38:03.480 --> 0:38:07.440
<v Speaker 12>Valley bank and banks paying for half a percent. So

0:38:07.480 --> 0:38:09.879
<v Speaker 12>there is some cash there, maybe a trillion, but it's

0:38:09.920 --> 0:38:10.520
<v Speaker 12>not seventral.

0:38:10.520 --> 0:38:12.200
<v Speaker 4>All right, Urian, we have to leave it there, But

0:38:12.239 --> 0:38:13.640
<v Speaker 4>we got to the end of the answer.

0:38:13.719 --> 0:38:15.759
<v Speaker 5>So thank you. That is Urian Timmer, who is.

0:38:15.760 --> 0:38:18.880
<v Speaker 4>Director of Global Macro ad Fidelity Management and Research.

0:38:19.040 --> 0:38:20.000
<v Speaker 5>Much much appreciated.

0:38:20.600 --> 0:38:24.400
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