Speaker 1: What's up, friends, and welcome into Fantasy pros. This is
Speaker 1: the Fantasy Football Podcast. I'm Chris Welsh, and today we
Speaker 1: got a great topic Future, the Way Way Future twenty
Speaker 1: twenty five first round projecting. That's what we're gonna do.
Speaker 1: We're gonna take a look at who belongs in that
Speaker 1: first round. But I ain't doing it. Who's joining me?
Speaker 1: The great and powerful Pat Fitzmorse. Of course, my all
Speaker 1: season Ranks buddy and one of my best friends in
Speaker 1: the industry. I have known him forever. He has always
Speaker 1: been a dear, dear friend doing great things for me,
Speaker 1: and now I get to direct and be very bossy
Speaker 1: to him. It is the athletics own Jake Seeley, the
Speaker 1: all in kid. Jake, what's up, buddy?
Speaker 2: What's going on?
Speaker 3: Say?
Speaker 1: It has been too long?
Speaker 2: And you started that off and I'm like, wait, is
Speaker 2: there another guest I don't know coming in?
Speaker 1: Well, Jake and I have shared other in person. Yeah,
Speaker 1: of course, of course, we shared Gelatta. We went to
Speaker 1: the Royal Rumble together. We have a long story history.
Speaker 1: We did a show for two years together. So I'm
Speaker 1: very excit to do it because I have done Ranks
Speaker 1: conversations with you for years, and Pat and I spent
Speaker 1: the entire season doing ranks, which, by the way, Pat,
Speaker 1: let's give a shout out just for one second, the
Speaker 1: ranks contest that just finished up. I believe, if I
Speaker 1: remember correctly, top twenty five was the top twenty. I
Speaker 1: want to undersell you. I believe you finished inside the
Speaker 1: top twenty five of the overall maybe the top twenty twentieth. Oh,
Speaker 1: thank you, Welch. That's beautiful. I will tell you. Second
Speaker 1: best week I had was stupid Week seventeen. We just
Speaker 1: got the accuracy results. I finished nineteenth. I finished nineteenth,
Speaker 1: and I know because that's when it cousts the most
Speaker 1: I've That's what I think. Here's also my biggest, my biggest,
Speaker 1: like excitement. I finished one spot ahead of Derek Brown
Speaker 1: this year, So no big deal. I just want to
Speaker 1: put out the King of Bros. Is going to have
Speaker 1: to sit one spot behind me in the end season ranks.
Speaker 1: But we're not here to talk about this season. We're
Speaker 1: here to talk about next season. That's what we're going
Speaker 1: to be doing here the twenty twenty five first round.
Speaker 1: It's already going to be crazy. We have got both
Speaker 1: of your guys's projected first round. We're going to go
Speaker 1: through them, talk through some of the debates. There's some
Speaker 1: big ones, just as a preview. Can we see a
Speaker 1: tight end back in the first round? Is there a
Speaker 1: rookie that's viable there? And who is the standout? Are
Speaker 1: there any standouts from last year that don't belong or
Speaker 1: that are going to jump in? Those are the questions
Speaker 1: that we're going to be asking in this episode. But
Speaker 1: make sure that you guys are dialed in with us
Speaker 1: all off season long, because just because football is starting
Speaker 1: to end, as you can tell, we're already looking to
Speaker 1: next year. We've already got I think some early ranks
Speaker 1: in draft ranks we're looking at. Dynasty shows are back
Speaker 1: in tune, so make sure you're locked in over at
Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros. You can always download my playbook. Drafting is
Speaker 1: going to be here next thing, you know it. We
Speaker 1: got you cover to make sure you're subscribed here right
Speaker 1: here on the channel, the YouTube channel in the podcast
Speaker 1: for Fantasy Pros. Gentlemen, let's project the twenty twenty five
Speaker 1: first round and YouTube are boring. You both went shock
Speaker 1: with your first two picks. You guys went with the
Speaker 1: same two. You've got at number one, Jamar Chase. Shout
Speaker 1: out to Andrew Erickson, who's been pounding that Jamar Chase
Speaker 1: table all season long. Saquon Barkley comes in at two.
Speaker 1: You guys both agree with this at one and two,
Speaker 1: a wide receiver, a running back that is not named
Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey. So here's the question, and Jake, let's start
Speaker 1: with you on this one as our studious guest. Here
Speaker 1: are these the definitive one in two? Is it Saquon Barkley,
Speaker 1: Jamar Chase, Maybe in some type of an order if
Speaker 1: someone wanted to have the running back at the top.
Speaker 1: Do you think this is the no doubt top two picks?
Speaker 1: And is the order interchangeable?
Speaker 2: Hey, I think it's slightly interchangeable if you feel more
Speaker 2: comfortable taking and running back. It's similar to what we
Speaker 2: headed into this season, which isn't going to sound good
Speaker 2: when I say it, But it was Christian McCaffrey or
Speaker 2: Tyreek Hill or Justin Jefferson as the first pick type
Speaker 2: of conversation, and of course most of those didn't work
Speaker 2: out as the number one pick. Justin Jefferson was a
Speaker 2: first rounder, but not the number one pick. But I
Speaker 2: think it's interchangeable if you want to take the running back.
Speaker 2: The thing here is that we have the best season
Speaker 2: since the rookie season for Barkley. We have Jamar Chase,
Speaker 2: which I'll give him the slight edge. And this is
Speaker 2: coming from, as you know, and everybody listening knows, my
Speaker 2: dog is named Barkley.
Speaker 1: So I'm a huge fan of Barkley.
Speaker 2: But the difference is is they both put up similar numbers.
Speaker 2: Whereas Chase might have a few, maybe one or two
Speaker 2: more games where his single digits, the difference is he
Speaker 2: also has multiple thirty point games. Barkley gets close a
Speaker 2: couple times. But those big, big ones that kind of
Speaker 2: carry your entire team are going to come more often
Speaker 2: from Chase than they will Barkley, just because of who
Speaker 2: he is. And I think this stands whether or not
Speaker 2: to Higgins' is back. If Higgins is back, cool, it's
Speaker 2: the Chase we've always known. If he's not in the
Speaker 2: replace him with somebody else, maybe even to a lesser degree,
Speaker 2: maybe even more volume for Chase. So I have no
Speaker 2: problem if you want Barkley first to go to the
Speaker 2: running back route. But I think these are I think
Speaker 2: it's these two and then a tear drop off to
Speaker 2: everybody else, We're gonna be talking about.
Speaker 1: The running back, not the dog. Cle Yes, yes, clearly, Okay,
Speaker 1: just everybody was clearly it's the running back, not the dog. Pat,
Speaker 1: what do you think about this definitive one and two?
Speaker 1: And is it interchangeable?
Speaker 4: Well, if it were league with only two starting wide receivers,
Speaker 4: I think I'd bumped Barkley up to number one. I'm
Speaker 4: doing this based on a start three wide receiver league.
Speaker 4: But you know, Andrew Erickson pointed out on our Awards
Speaker 4: podcast the Other Guy other Day, a smart guy by
Speaker 4: the way, that it feels like maybe twenty twenty four
Speaker 4: was the year to draft Saquon Barkley, and he kind
Speaker 4: of rightly pointed out that seasons like the one Barkley
Speaker 4: just had have a way of not repeating. So many
Speaker 4: times during the season when people ask me start sit
Speaker 4: questions involving some player who was a one week wonder,
Speaker 4: I'll tell them not to chase last week's points. And
Speaker 4: I think it's fair to wonder if taking Barkley one
Speaker 4: oh one or one oh two and twenty twenty five
Speaker 4: is a case of chasing last year's points like, look,
Speaker 4: Barkley is great, his offensive line is great, probably will
Speaker 4: continue to be great. But I do wonder if it
Speaker 4: might make more sense to draft like an ascend and
Speaker 4: talent and Bjeon Robinson whose best seasons are probably still
Speaker 4: ahead of him, over a guy like Barkley who may
Speaker 4: have just had his peak year. So to me, there's
Speaker 4: really not much separation at all between Saquon Barkley and
Speaker 4: b Jon Robinson. And I might actually flip Bejon Robinson
Speaker 4: ahead of Barkley at some point. Not sure about that,
Speaker 4: but he does look pretty full proof right now. But again,
Speaker 4: these things have a way of not repeating.
Speaker 1: Well, and that's going to lead to a really good question.
Speaker 1: But you know what's interesting is you were kind of
Speaker 1: talking about that. It leads to another thing that pops
Speaker 1: up for me in that you know, it's like definitive
Speaker 1: Jamar Chase. We just also experienced a year where I
Speaker 1: don't want to give a credit to the wide receivers,
Speaker 1: those top end wide receivers. I mean, Tyreek Hill was
Speaker 1: a big, massive failure. But you know, Chase, jeff Justin
Speaker 1: Jefferson kind of what wide receivers always do. They're up
Speaker 1: but running backs. You know, we saw so many people
Speaker 1: wanting to fade running backs. You kind of felt the
Speaker 1: weight of not having depth at running back, or if
Speaker 1: you avoided those top end running backs, you felt that
Speaker 1: into the playoffs you might have more than ever. When
Speaker 1: we get those stats of like championship teams, you might
Speaker 1: have more than ever. The Dereck Henry's in the Saquon
Speaker 1: Barkley is the top backs and not those lower guys
Speaker 1: that it kind of shoves in your face a little
Speaker 1: bit more why running backs could potentially be a little
Speaker 1: bit more valuable, especially maybe the elite elite ones. Jake,
Speaker 1: do you think we should carry anything of what the
Speaker 1: depth of the running back position was? Maybe the pseudo
Speaker 1: I don't want to quite like a complete failure of
Speaker 1: zero running back because it always like it can work out,
Speaker 1: but we felt the weight of what we lost at
Speaker 1: running back this year and people might want to push
Speaker 1: those up. Do you think that maybe justifies pushing up
Speaker 1: guys like Saquon Barkley, like Bjeon Robinson, Jamier Gibbs, those
Speaker 1: type of guys that we're going to talk about.
Speaker 2: So my first and if I think about my second
Speaker 2: round are pretty similar to last year, and there's not
Speaker 2: going to be many more running backs. And the big
Speaker 2: advantage for last year was the value in Saquon Barkley
Speaker 2: and Derek Henry at the end of the first round.
Speaker 2: And I'll just straight liken it to the actual NFL
Speaker 2: and free agency. We just saw the normalist year for
Speaker 2: free agent running backs is We're not gonna see Derek Henry,
Speaker 2: Aaron Jones, Josh Jacobs, a Saquon Barkley in free agency
Speaker 2: again this year. It's going to be a downturn. We're
Speaker 2: probably not going to see a ton of years where
Speaker 2: sixty seventy percent of the top twelve running backs stay
Speaker 2: one hundred percent healthy for the entire year and play
Speaker 2: sixteen seventeen games. So it's kind of an anomalous year.
Speaker 2: But that doesn't mean the strategy really changes. Is I
Speaker 2: still have some smattering of running backs in the first round.
Speaker 2: The values of the second round running backs are still
Speaker 2: RB ones, but I'm gonna keep them there. I'm just
Speaker 2: gonna keep my strategy very much the same, and you
Speaker 2: kind of get that benefit of the ones that might
Speaker 2: be in the second round this year might be some
Speaker 2: of the ones that pop back inside the top five
Speaker 2: next season just because of how certain things shake out.
Speaker 2: So I think that yes, you felt it, and you
Speaker 2: can always play you kind of alluded to it. You
Speaker 2: can play the hindsight of like, sure zero running back worked.
Speaker 2: If you got Chase Brown and Bucky Irving and Rico Dowbel.
Speaker 2: It's like, yeah, how many teams hit on all three?
Speaker 2: How many teams like we're able to do that playing
Speaker 2: zero RB? It was very few and far between. I
Speaker 2: think the biggest thing here is understanding that there is
Speaker 2: still value with the top tier of running backs. But
Speaker 2: I feel like that's always been the case. It's just
Speaker 2: this year happened to be a little anomalous with how
Speaker 2: many stayed healthy.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it might be fair. This is a really
Speaker 1: great point that Jake makes. It might be fair when
Speaker 1: we do assess this that it's not necessarily about overvaluing
Speaker 1: running backs early on. Then it is being like, hey,
Speaker 1: cool that we did the like I'm going to do
Speaker 1: a running back round one running back or I'm sorry,
Speaker 1: wide receiver in the first round, the second round, the
Speaker 1: third round, maybe in the second round. There's going to
Speaker 1: be incredible running back value this year that we need
Speaker 1: to be a little bit more balanced through our first
Speaker 1: four or five picks in what we have at running back,
Speaker 1: then it is shoving running backs ahead of wide receivers.
Speaker 1: Do you think that's kind of fair?
Speaker 3: I think it is fair.
Speaker 4: And boy, when you look at the second round, remember
Speaker 4: what a minefield the second round look like in twenty
Speaker 4: four twenty twenty four drafts, and like for twenty twenty five,
Speaker 4: the second round looks fabulous. It's a candy store. So
Speaker 4: kind of kind of a night and day difference there.
Speaker 4: I know we're supposed to be focusing on the first
Speaker 4: round in this show, but but yeah, I mean, like
Speaker 4: Jake's point about the injuries was a really good one.
Speaker 4: It was almost eerie how few running back injuries we
Speaker 4: had this year, especially in the first half, first ten
Speaker 4: weeks of the season. I mean it was Isaiah Pacheco,
Speaker 4: and I really can't remember another significant running back injury,
Speaker 4: and normally the injury rates of running back. Yeah, McCaffrey,
Speaker 4: although he was remember why why don't recount that? Like
Speaker 4: that was damaged goods coming into the season. But and generally,
Speaker 4: I mean, I think injury rates tend to be higher
Speaker 4: at running back than they are a wide receiver.
Speaker 3: And it was just totally flipped on its head this year.
Speaker 1: No, that's like total and that's totally what you take
Speaker 1: with it. Like the safety of wide receiver. I mean,
Speaker 1: Tyree Killigan did fail us, but for the most part,
Speaker 1: injuries kind of like fading a little bit on wide receivers,
Speaker 1: like they are safer with the huge upside. But there
Speaker 1: were so many running backs that was attached to Oh,
Speaker 1: Henry's getting older. That was everybody's argument about Saquon, Like, Okay,
Speaker 1: he always gets hurt. Going with a better team, better offense,
Speaker 1: everything should smash for a great year, but he always
Speaker 1: gets hurt and that's why people talk themselves out of it.
Speaker 1: And there were so many that were healthy. Things are
Speaker 1: going to start to get different, you guys are not
Speaker 1: going to start agreeing, and it's going to happen with
Speaker 1: the next pick. But first, let's talk about our friends
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Speaker 1: These two players are not the same. Coming in at
Speaker 1: pick three projecting for twenty twenty five, We've got Pat's own,
Speaker 1: Bijon Robinson and Pukinakua for you. So of these are great, Pat,
Speaker 1: you alluded to Bjean Robinson jumping up maybe even above
Speaker 1: Saquon Barkley. And really, what I'm curious about is like
Speaker 1: two running backs in the first three picks. I don't
Speaker 1: remember the last time anybody, especially a prominent name like
Speaker 1: you in the industry, was comfortable with that. I don't
Speaker 1: feel like people are comfortable with that. So what do
Speaker 1: you think alters outside of what we saw in twenty
Speaker 1: twenty five? Like, what do you think is so deservant
Speaker 1: of two running backs being inside your top three? And
Speaker 1: I think you've already kind of alluded to what the
Speaker 1: gap between these two is. It's very minimal because you
Speaker 1: might jump them, but two running backs inside your top
Speaker 1: three is quite a statement, pat, which I love, by
Speaker 1: the way, as a running back guy.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, just how good these guys are. Sakuan
Speaker 4: has always been immensely talented, and we saw him dropped
Speaker 4: into the perfect situation with the Eagles in twenty twenty four,
Speaker 4: and Bijon pretty incredible in his own right. Fifteen touchdowns
Speaker 4: almost nineteen hundred yards from scrimmage this season, and it
Speaker 4: still kind of feels like there's meat left on the ball.
Speaker 3: Like the way the way Bijon.
Speaker 4: Patiently sets up blocks and waits for holes to open
Speaker 4: up reminds me so much of peak Le'Veon Bell, except
Speaker 4: Bijon is much faster and more explosive than Bell was.
Speaker 3: So and it is.
Speaker 4: There's some other guys we like and I think are
Speaker 4: worthy of first round picks, but like Bijon lead back
Speaker 4: in what's probably going to be an ascendent offense with
Speaker 4: Michael PENNOCKX Junior, and we saw the improvement down the
Speaker 4: stretch once he replaced Kirk Cousins. Exciting offense and Bijon
Speaker 4: is the tip of that spear.
Speaker 1: Now, Jake, you do not have a running back here.
Speaker 1: You're going wide receiver. You said not a ton is
Speaker 1: going to go and crazy change. I do love this
Speaker 1: because this is some me and Bagman actually talking about.
Speaker 1: This is a big discussion piece of what you do
Speaker 1: with Pukuinakua and you say no more noos. As far
Speaker 1: as wide receivers, he's a third overall player for you,
Speaker 1: So let's talk about that. I mean, you guys definitely
Speaker 1: now have a stat ablished the difference in your wide
Speaker 1: receiver values as well, but third overall pick for Pooka
Speaker 1: in you know that offense with some injuries? What's got
Speaker 1: you him? What's got you having him there at three?
Speaker 2: So I'm glad you brought up injuries because that's one
Speaker 2: of the things. If you take the games where he
Speaker 2: was hurt and then also not running eighty percent of
Speaker 2: the routes, and you only take the eighty percent of
Speaker 2: the routes games, which is basically weeks ten through seventeen,
Speaker 2: you're talking about eighteen point six a half point prepr
Speaker 2: per game, which by the way, is second only to
Speaker 2: Jamar Chase. He's right on his heels and that's a
Speaker 2: significant gap to Justin Jefferson now at three, and that's
Speaker 2: what it really comes down to. Of course, I'll throw
Speaker 2: the caveat that. A Stafford shocked this in the offseason
Speaker 2: and was like, hey, I'm walking.
Speaker 1: Out, I'm gone.
Speaker 2: But I think as of today, I think the bigger
Speaker 2: question is not Stafford. It's it's Cup even back with
Speaker 2: this team, and we've seen the numbers with and without
Speaker 2: Cup that you're talking three to four targets per game,
Speaker 2: two to three receptions per game, three to four fantasy
Speaker 2: points per game boost with no Cooper Cup. On top
Speaker 2: of the fact that all those games I'm referencing with
Speaker 2: the eighty percent routes were games with Cooper Cup. So
Speaker 2: I think Puka Nakula, similar to the argument Pat was
Speaker 2: making about Bijon, I think, is still on an upward trajectory.
Speaker 2: I don't think we've seen the best of Niakua, and
Speaker 2: if I'm going for who can challenge for that number
Speaker 2: one spot, I'm not going to unseat Chase, but I
Speaker 2: would take Niakua as the second wide receiver off the
Speaker 2: board and my third pick.
Speaker 1: Pat, you don't have Pooka there. But I'm just curious, like,
Speaker 1: do you think Pooka is in in the tier group
Speaker 1: of the wide receivers that we're talking about. It's perceivable that,
Speaker 1: like you get U three different tiers of wide receivers
Speaker 1: in the first round, you know what I'm saying, Like
Speaker 1: Jamar Chase can be his own universe and everyone rotates
Speaker 1: around him. We're gonna talk about number four here in
Speaker 1: a second, But do you think Puka is in this
Speaker 1: conversation Even if you don't believe he's the second wide receiver,
Speaker 1: He's in the conversation of that top tier of whiteouts
Speaker 1: very much.
Speaker 6: So.
Speaker 4: I have him pretty much in the same tier with
Speaker 4: Justin Jefferson and Ceedee Lamb. The only reason I have
Speaker 4: Pooka ranked behind those guys is because he is a
Speaker 4: mildly worrisome injury history. Like in college he had a
Speaker 4: broken foot, a high ankle spray, and a hamstring issue,
Speaker 4: got a concussion at the Senior Bowl during practices, didn't
Speaker 4: play in the game, and of course the knees sprain
Speaker 4: early in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 3: But Puka is awesome.
Speaker 4: I mean, there were so many times this season when
Speaker 4: I would be watching a Rams game and the Rams
Speaker 4: would have the ball and it would just be so
Speaker 4: obvious that Puka was the best player on the field
Speaker 4: offense or defense. I mean, and he just Jake mentioned
Speaker 4: Cooper Kopp. I mean, by the end of the season,
Speaker 4: Puka Nikua had completely marginalized Cooper cop So. But yeah,
Speaker 4: like I have thought about what Jake brought up with
Speaker 4: Matthew Stafford and if he does decide to hang up
Speaker 4: the cleats, and like, you know, if they are somehow
Speaker 4: able to acquire Sam Darnold, then I don't think we
Speaker 4: move off Puka at all. But what happens if it's
Speaker 4: a Gardner Minshew type stopgap situation?
Speaker 1: What's the lowest then? Because it's very funny that you
Speaker 1: guys are doing this because number four in the list
Speaker 1: we're gonna talk about Justin Jefferson. I was gonna ask,
Speaker 1: what do you guys, is everyone gonna freak out if
Speaker 1: if a no quarterback? You know, like everyone was like
Speaker 1: Jorjia McCarthy, he's gonna be Jeff Jeffers would be amazing.
Speaker 1: And then it was Sam Donald then when freaked out
Speaker 1: and started dropping him out of the first round. Is
Speaker 1: that what's gonna happen with Pooka if it takes a
Speaker 1: little bit of time, Sam Donald, you're not Sam Donald,
Speaker 1: but Matthew Stafford's gone, and someone else that isn't of
Speaker 1: Sam Donald like comes in. What's like, where would you
Speaker 1: move him?
Speaker 3: Pat?
Speaker 1: Let's start with you, would you move Hi out of
Speaker 1: the first round Pooka?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I could see a scenario where the
Speaker 4: quarterback situation was so troublesome that I moved him into
Speaker 4: the second round. But I mean it could be Bailey
Speaker 4: Zappi and I'm not moving him any lower than the
Speaker 4: second round.
Speaker 1: They could keep Jimmy Garoppolo Jake. I mean, what would
Speaker 1: you do if it was like a Jimmy Garoppolo type
Speaker 1: of player?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would go into the same I thought Pat
Speaker 2: was going to lean into the Jefferson thing too and say,
Speaker 2: let's be honest, that was a stupid argument this offseason.
Speaker 2: Is that because the thing was is with Justin Jefferson,
Speaker 2: we already had evidence of him doing it with what
Speaker 2: we would call not even a backup worthy quarterback in
Speaker 2: Nick Mullins, who was potentially not even the backup this week,
Speaker 2: as they might used Daniel Jones as the backup. Just
Speaker 2: to tell you what we're talking about here. We already
Speaker 2: had the evidence of Jefferson doing it with a subpar quarterback,
Speaker 2: So I'd say Garoppolo would make me keep Nicoa in
Speaker 2: the first round. I would drop him a few spots
Speaker 2: because I think Garoppolo is replacement level. If we went
Speaker 2: Nick Mullens further like those kind of like to put
Speaker 2: that joke aside the Bailey z Appy, he'd probably fall
Speaker 2: down to the second But it wouldn't be enough that
Speaker 2: I would go much further than that, as Pat said,
Speaker 2: it would have to be really bottom of the barrel
Speaker 2: eight and o'connells of the world, stuff like Temy DeVito's
Speaker 2: And I'd say second round. But it's still because that
Speaker 2: volume is there. And then what the biggest dang Pat
Speaker 2: said that I didn't is it's what we saw at
Speaker 2: the end of the year. He was so good that
Speaker 2: if you had never watched football before, you'd be like, man,
Speaker 2: that guy that's gotta be like, what the number one
Speaker 2: wide receiver in the NFL, right, like, just objectively watching
Speaker 2: that game, he was that much better.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I it's hard to have the argument of
Speaker 1: being like any wide receiver is quarterback proof because we
Speaker 1: were shown that's not the case Tyreek Hill with Skyler Thomps.
Speaker 1: Skyler Thompson broke that. I'm like, oh, Tyria Gill, Nope,
Speaker 1: you can have that. But you would imagine the Rams
Speaker 1: are gonna put themselves in a situation where Puka can
Speaker 1: go I find it. I guess hard for him to
Speaker 1: fall out of the first round really no matter what,
Speaker 1: because I don't think you're gonna see a situation where
Speaker 1: they're left with the Nick Mullins. They probably would be
Speaker 1: reaching out for Sam Donald or you know, making a
Speaker 1: solid quarterback choice across the board, probably having that toe
Speaker 1: in toe with Matthew Stafford having some type of an
Speaker 1: agreement where he just doesn't leave the team. Coming in
Speaker 1: at four and five, agreement time again, we're back to
Speaker 1: a complete agreement, Justin Jefferson. Hopefully we don't make an
Speaker 1: argument if JJ McCarthy is now the quarterback and they
Speaker 1: get rid of Donald that he belongs down and Cede Lamb,
Speaker 1: so both of these guys locked in. You both have
Speaker 1: them at four and five. Justin Jefferson, Cede Lamb, Jake
Speaker 1: give us some takes. Obviously, Dak will be back, but
Speaker 1: the Cowboys are kind of a mess the Vikings. The
Speaker 1: only question is does Sam Donald return. Because of Sam
Speaker 1: Donald returns, we know exactly what we're in for. There's
Speaker 1: a little bit more of a question JJ McCarthy, but
Speaker 1: that was what everybody wanted before. So where do you
Speaker 1: think the variance is with both of these guys at
Speaker 1: four and five?
Speaker 2: So Justin Jefferson with McCarthy, I don't even know if
Speaker 2: I would change his rank again. I go back to
Speaker 2: the Nick Mallins if you can do it with Nick Mallins.
Speaker 2: And it really comes down to this team as a whole,
Speaker 2: which is a completely separate NFL topic to have here.
Speaker 2: But Sam Darnald, let's be honest, we already knew who
Speaker 2: he was and bringing the Giants to this, you throw
Speaker 2: him on the Giants, He's gonna be old Sam Darnold.
Speaker 3: Again.
Speaker 2: It's about environment, it's about the weapons around you, It's
Speaker 2: about the coaching staff. Kevin O'Connell I would put in
Speaker 2: the Shanahan conversation and others where you put certain mid
Speaker 2: level quarterbacks in there and they're going to be much
Speaker 2: better because of their environment there and their weapons. So
Speaker 2: I'm not worried about Justin Jefferson. If it is McCarthy,
Speaker 2: I'm of the mindset that they franchised to do one
Speaker 2: more year, and then we've already had to talk about
Speaker 2: McCarthy not possibly being ready for Week one, so that
Speaker 2: remains to be seen.
Speaker 3: But put it this way, I'm not moving Jefferson.
Speaker 2: The Ceede Lamb one comes down to obviously hoping that
Speaker 2: Dak Prescott is one hundred percent and Cede Lamb are
Speaker 2: both on because we just came off a year where
Speaker 2: Seeding Lamb was in the conversation to be the number
Speaker 2: one wide receiver and game in and game out. Even
Speaker 2: if they do what a lot of people are projecting
Speaker 2: them to do in drafting Junete, I really don't see
Speaker 2: it changing from the volume. The biggest thing about Ceedee
Speaker 2: Lamb is he's one of three, maybe four wide receivers
Speaker 2: that sits in the thirty percent target share range, and
Speaker 2: I don't think that even if they shocked the world
Speaker 2: and signed T Higgins, I don't really think that's going
Speaker 2: to change enough where maybe Ceedee Lamb falls a spot
Speaker 2: or two, But I think he deserves to be here
Speaker 2: as long as Dak's okay, which we all expect as
Speaker 2: of today.
Speaker 1: Pat, is there any part of you that you know
Speaker 1: when Dak went down, Ceedee Lamb got kind of destroyed
Speaker 1: in ranks and then Cooper Rush figured out, I'll just
Speaker 1: throw seventeen times a game to Ceede Lamb every other
Speaker 1: throw and that kind of fixed some stuff. But do
Speaker 1: you think with that type of volatility and how this
Speaker 1: offense is. Look, I know you put him at five.
Speaker 1: Do you feel super comfortable with Ceedee Lamb at five,
Speaker 1: especially with some of the pieces around him, because I
Speaker 1: think if anybody like Ceedee Lamb showed the volatility of
Speaker 1: the team the quarterback, there's health quarterback questions and what
Speaker 1: his value became when he lost Dak.
Speaker 3: I mean I do.
Speaker 4: With Dak back, and then even without Dak, he's still produced.
Speaker 4: Maybe he wasn't quite as efficient, it took more volume
Speaker 4: as you mentioned Welsh, but yeah, I still feel comfortable
Speaker 4: with him, and plus like this is not going to
Speaker 4: be well, maybe it is if they get genty, maybe
Speaker 4: they can start to lean on their running game a
Speaker 4: little bit more. Again, but look, the defense is not
Speaker 4: what it was a couple of years ago, so they're
Speaker 4: probably not going to be in many like super run
Speaker 4: friendly game scripts next year. I just feel great about
Speaker 4: Lamb and the talent, Like he's just proven how good
Speaker 4: a player he's He is just a locked in first.
Speaker 1: Rounder number six the halfway point here for the first round.
Speaker 1: This is a difference. So you guys have had half
Speaker 1: of your picks so far inside of the top six
Speaker 1: be agreements. This is another disagreement, Pat, this is where
Speaker 1: Puka comes in. So you ended up having uh, he's
Speaker 1: wide receiver four. I suppose that would be so two
Speaker 1: one wide receiver, two wide receivers above and then Jake
Speaker 1: at six, you've got Jamiir Gibbs. So, Pat, any other
Speaker 1: takes you want to throw on Pooka Akua? You did
Speaker 1: put him below CD, below Jefferson, and below obviously below
Speaker 1: Jamar Chase, so he comes in at wide receiver four.
Speaker 1: Anything else you wanted to add on Pooka.
Speaker 4: No, and no issues with where Jake draft him, drafted him,
Speaker 4: or wanted to have him in the first round. Like
Speaker 4: for instance, I'm in a home league with a partner,
Speaker 4: a good friend of mine. Like if we were deciding
Speaker 4: between a wide receiver early on in the first round
Speaker 4: at like one oh four, and he wanted us to
Speaker 4: take Puka Nakua over Jefferson or Lamb Like, I don't
Speaker 4: think I'd argue with him.
Speaker 3: I'd be okay with drafting Pooka Jake.
Speaker 1: You established yourself as two running backs in the top six. Now,
Speaker 1: so Pat is two running backs inside of the top three.
Speaker 1: Your second running back comes in, but it is not
Speaker 1: Bijon Robinson. We've got Jamiir Gibbs, who is a freaking monster,
Speaker 1: but does share with an they're great back. So talk
Speaker 1: to us about your six overall pick Jamiir Gibbs.
Speaker 2: It really comes down to consistency, and I have no problem,
Speaker 2: as Pat just said, with my back, I have no
Speaker 2: problem with b Jon Rominson. I'm not gonna sit here
Speaker 2: and be like, ah, you're stupid to take him in
Speaker 2: front of Jamiir Gibbs. It just comes down to me
Speaker 2: and looking at Gibbs season, there was three players in
Speaker 2: all Fantasy that scored double digits every single game, Jamier Gibbs,
Speaker 2: and the other two were quarterbacks. Just to give you
Speaker 2: an idea of that. That doesn't include Jamar Chase, Saquon
Speaker 2: Barkley and the rest. And it really comes down to that.
Speaker 2: Was even while splitting with David Montgomery even while David
Speaker 2: Montgomery taking away touchdowns, and we all expect David Montgomery's
Speaker 2: back next year. I just look at Gibbs as I
Speaker 2: don't see how it can get worse. It might even
Speaker 2: get better. We saw the end of the season. If
Speaker 2: Montgomery does miss time we're talking about, he was the
Speaker 2: number one running back over Barkley even without David Montgomery.
Speaker 2: So I feel like Gibbs us the second one running
Speaker 2: back is kind of almost like the floor as crazy
Speaker 2: as that might sound to say he's the floors RB two,
Speaker 2: maybe it's three or four, but it just comes down
Speaker 2: to a little bit of consistency versus the fact of
Speaker 2: there is another option with the Falcons, as we see
Speaker 2: in Algier, and I don't think he's the threat level
Speaker 2: to Montgomery, but he's still enough that there are certain
Speaker 2: weeks where the Falcons just go away. And I just
Speaker 2: don't know what Pennex is gonna and I'm a Penix guy,
Speaker 2: mind you, I just don't know what Penex is gonna
Speaker 2: look like over an entire season, which for all intensive purposes,
Speaker 2: will be a true rookie season type for him. So
Speaker 2: it's just it's nitpicky, honestly, and when it comes down
Speaker 2: to and this is even if Ben Johnson leaves, like
Speaker 2: if it's Scotty Montgomery the assistant head coach who's a
Speaker 2: running backs guy, like it might even be slightly better
Speaker 2: if they go to Mark Brunell, who's the quarterback coach.
Speaker 2: Maybe he even gets more checkdowns. The point being is,
Speaker 2: I don't think the Ben Johnson's offense, even if he leaves,
Speaker 2: is gonna change much.
Speaker 1: And I can't imagine the team pat is going to
Speaker 1: look to move completely away from the dominant run game
Speaker 1: that they ran. And that's like, that's where the floor
Speaker 1: start to exist with Jamier Gibbs. Is we can say
Speaker 1: Dave Montgomery, de Montgomery, dea Montgomery, but Jamior Gibbs still
Speaker 1: scored as he did with Dave Montgomery. So now imagine
Speaker 1: if he's out of there in the upside of where
Speaker 1: Jamier Gibbs. So I think that's where kind of the
Speaker 1: land of Jamiir Gibbs is. And you've got him, you know,
Speaker 1: jumping ahead just one pick. He's comes up here at seven.
Speaker 1: So three running backs in side the top seven, so
Speaker 1: I know you're probably in pretty firm agreement, but he
Speaker 1: just doesn't jump Bijon, and there's a little bit of
Speaker 1: a gap between a couple positions before you tap into
Speaker 1: Jamiir Gibbs.
Speaker 6: Pat.
Speaker 3: Yeah, but not much.
Speaker 4: Not much of a gap between Beijon and Gibbs for
Speaker 4: me either. And to Jake's point about the consistency, I
Speaker 4: think there was only one game all season and half
Speaker 4: point PPR where Gibbs did not hit ten points at
Speaker 4: least double digits, and in the one miss he had
Speaker 4: like nine point three and that was with David Montgomery
Speaker 4: up until his injury, averaging sixteen touches a game, and
Speaker 4: then with Montgomery out, of course, Gibbs went completely nuclear
Speaker 4: and carried a lot of fantasy teams to titles because
Speaker 4: I don't think he scored less than like twenty four
Speaker 4: half point PPR points per game in weeks fifteen through seventeen.
Speaker 4: So yes, like rock solid floor and sky high ceiling.
Speaker 4: Pretty good combination.
Speaker 1: Now seven kind of boring because we've already talked about
Speaker 1: these guys. You guys both agree there are three running
Speaker 1: backs in the top seven. Because Jake, you've got Bijon
Speaker 1: Robinson at seven, Pat, you've got Jamiir Gibbs at eight.
Speaker 1: Now let's play with this bad boy because this was
Speaker 1: the discussion that Bogmin and I have and I love
Speaker 1: this Pat because you and Bogman do a show together
Speaker 1: and you guys can argue to your faces are red.
Speaker 1: Pat at eight has brock Bowers. We have our first
Speaker 1: iteration of a tight end. In a little bit, Jake,
Speaker 1: you've got a mon Ross Saint Brown at eight. You're boring.
Speaker 1: That's tropy here, So we don't even need to worry
Speaker 1: about that. We are going to talk about brock Bauers
Speaker 1: in here because I'm gonna give you a heads up. Jake,
Speaker 1: you do not have a tight end. You do not
Speaker 1: have brock Bowers in the first round. I will not
Speaker 1: have brock Bowers in the first round. Pat, you are
Speaker 1: first round brock Bowers, and I get it. I get
Speaker 1: a guy just about broke the tight end single season record.
Speaker 1: There's a little part of me though, that's like we've
Speaker 1: been now on this road before and the recooping of value.
Speaker 1: There's always kind of that, like what's the wiggle room
Speaker 1: of what he has to do to return that value?
Speaker 1: So I'll shut up. You tell us top eight overall
Speaker 1: pick brock Bauers in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 4: Would I really be arguing with Bogman about this, because
Speaker 4: I think he's the one guy who's higher on brock Bowers,
Speaker 4: or at least he was coming into twenty twenty.
Speaker 1: The agreement is there. You guys both love brock Bowers.
Speaker 1: He's a firm disagree of a first round tight end though.
Speaker 3: Oh okay. Interesting.
Speaker 4: So my take is that tight end is always such
Speaker 4: a problematic position, and brock Bauers is such a resounding
Speaker 4: answer to the tight end problem that I do think
Speaker 4: he warrants first round consideration in much the same way
Speaker 4: Travis Kelcey did all those years when there was kind
Speaker 4: of a gap between him and the rest of the
Speaker 4: tight end pack. And I kind of do think there
Speaker 4: is a gap between Bowers and Trey McBride and company.
Speaker 4: Like Bowers is faster than McBride, had a better college career,
Speaker 4: doesn't have the same touchdown allergy that Trey McBride seems
Speaker 4: to have. I mean, brock Bauers as a rookie with
Speaker 4: Aidan O'Connell in Gardner Minshew as his quarterbacks, had one
Speaker 4: hundred and twelve catches eleven hundred and ninety four yards
Speaker 4: five touchdowns. He finished third among all pass catchers in receptions,
Speaker 4: not just tight ends receivers too. Only Jamar Chase and
Speaker 4: Amen Ross Saint Brown had more catches than Brock Powers.
Speaker 4: And he did this with a very suboptimal quarterback situation
Speaker 4: that really can't get any worse for twenty twenty five.
Speaker 3: So I mean, I don't think this is peak brock Powers.
Speaker 4: I think they're going to be better statistical seasons, which
Speaker 4: is scary to imagine. So I do think he belongs
Speaker 4: in the first round.
Speaker 1: So I have a I never do tight ends in
Speaker 1: the first round, so that kind of reeks to me.
Speaker 1: The bad quarterback play seems like upside, but I can't
Speaker 1: get out two things out of my head. You're gonna
Speaker 1: have a brand new coaching scheme and whatever that could bring.
Speaker 1: And then I think about guys like Sam Laporta and
Speaker 1: King Kate. Sam Laporta was like, oh my gosh, look
Speaker 1: at this, and then it was just he disappeared in
Speaker 1: the offense. Now, well, it's a very different situation. And
Speaker 1: that's not a designation I guess against brock Bowers time.
Speaker 1: I just don't think brock Bauer's talent is in question.
Speaker 1: It really just kind of becomes about the concern of
Speaker 1: him being able to produce like top eight or top ten. Jake,
Speaker 1: your take on this is where I'm leading up to
Speaker 1: tight end in the first round. Can you do it?
Speaker 2: So let me preface this by one of the nicest guys,
Speaker 2: and I love him, one of the most. So before it's.
Speaker 1: Gonna be so mean, it's gonna be me. You're gonna
Speaker 1: be mean.
Speaker 2: I am one hundred percent coming for Pat and anybody
Speaker 2: of this take. I just I will never come to
Speaker 2: this argument. I will never agree with this argument. But
Speaker 2: this is my stance, and I know a lot of
Speaker 2: people actually disagree with me, including I've done Pat Mayo's
Speaker 2: show for ten plus years now, and he made the
Speaker 2: case for Travis Kelcey in the first round. The biggest
Speaker 2: thing even to compare to Travis Kelcey. Well, so two ful,
Speaker 2: let me take one step back. He wasn't even the
Speaker 2: highest scoring in points per game this year. George Kittle
Speaker 2: outscored him a full point per game. So we have
Speaker 2: twelve point two, which is what I'm gonna bring up.
Speaker 2: And I do agree in the fact that we probably
Speaker 2: haven't seen the best of ours. It was his rookie
Speaker 2: season and I think Bowers deserves to be. In a conversation,
Speaker 2: Laporta even wasn't where we're talking about. I hate to
Speaker 2: use the word, but generational tight end prospect. And I'm
Speaker 2: not even going down the Kyle Pitts route because Kyle
Speaker 2: Pitts was an athletic freak. He wasn't a very good
Speaker 2: receiving option, which is now we're seeing the NFL expose him.
Speaker 2: So all in agreement of the talent, what it comes
Speaker 2: down to is you need to have the Travis Kelce
Speaker 2: fifteen fifteen and a half points per game to warrant
Speaker 2: the argument that he's even considered first round. And even
Speaker 2: then at fifteen fifteen and a half points per game,
Speaker 2: you're still not even a top seven wide receiver. And
Speaker 2: we don't have seven wide receivers in the first round,
Speaker 2: or maybe we just barely do. And that's where I'm
Speaker 2: going with all this. If you want to, I mean,
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna call you crazy. I might call you
Speaker 2: a little drunk maybe, but it comes down to I'm
Speaker 2: not sacrificing a running back or wide receiver for somebody
Speaker 2: who I hope can just get to tight end or
Speaker 2: wide receiver six or seven, which is still barely first
Speaker 2: round material, which comes down to the argument you just made,
Speaker 2: welsh Is And if I knew, like, I'll use what
Speaker 2: something you said earlier, Pat, if you told me they
Speaker 2: shocked the world and they're the ones that signed Sam Darnold,
Speaker 2: I mean, be like, Okay, you know what, I could
Speaker 2: get to the fifteenth, sixteenth pick. I might get close
Speaker 2: to the first round, but I'm not running back down
Speaker 2: that road again with the Raiders to just hope that
Speaker 2: I get a leg up when that leg up isn't
Speaker 2: even there right now and we haven't really seen it
Speaker 2: since Travis Kelsey. So yeah, I'm just never going to
Speaker 2: be a tight end in the first round guy.
Speaker 1: And it really does skew some mock There are mock
Speaker 1: drafts out there already where he has gone in the
Speaker 1: first round. So like credit, dude, that's a bogman. And
Speaker 1: I did a mock draft and I took him on
Speaker 1: the two three wheel, so the indie I usually took
Speaker 1: him like third pick in the third round, but call
Speaker 1: it second last pick in the second. I know, we
Speaker 1: but here's the problem. It's never gonna happen. Like there's us,
Speaker 1: there's some of us, so if you want Rock Bauers,
Speaker 1: your investment is going to be higher. I think it
Speaker 1: makes sense for him to be that wheel pick, but
Speaker 1: he's not going to be. He's going to go higher.
Speaker 2: And the argus and what happens people, Sorry, I was
Speaker 2: gonna say, what happens is if Pat, you're right and
Speaker 2: he does hit fifteen points per game, he's deserving at
Speaker 2: the end of the first round pick. Sure, But the
Speaker 2: point is he has to have that leg up. He
Speaker 2: has to have that three point four point gap on
Speaker 2: the next best tight end for that to be warranted.
Speaker 2: If it's only one, if he's right in that same realm,
Speaker 2: you'd lose what edge you're trying to gain. And that's
Speaker 2: that's my biggest issue with that. If you told me,
Speaker 2: if Pat said, hey, I'm twenty twenty six, Pat, I'm
Speaker 2: telling you, Jake, he averages fifteen and a half points
Speaker 2: per game and the next closest is twelve, sign me
Speaker 2: up for the first time ever. I just that's the
Speaker 2: biggest thing.
Speaker 3: Pat.
Speaker 1: Would you feel the same way if the Raiders sign
Speaker 1: Deon Sanders as coach and then Shadur Sanders is the
Speaker 1: quarterback they draft, and it's aid O'Connell and Sad Sanders
Speaker 1: as the two quarterbacks in Las Vegas about Stay Oakland.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean that's maybe a slight upgrade over you know,
Speaker 4: O'Connell's stoning the picture and it's Shado or over Gardner Minshew.
Speaker 3: So I guess that is a slight upgrade. But that's
Speaker 3: the thing.
Speaker 4: Like, the one thing that could improve him and get
Speaker 4: him to have that three or four point gap between
Speaker 4: him and the next highest tight end is the touchdown total,
Speaker 4: and like the quarterbacking is going to help with that.
Speaker 4: Any sort of quarterback improvement is going to get him
Speaker 4: from five touchdowns to ten or eleven, which is kind
Speaker 4: of where Travis Kelcey was in his heyday. So and look,
Speaker 4: I mean I'm not I wasn't one of the Travis
Speaker 4: Kelcey in the first round people either, Like I just
Speaker 4: kind of like didn't really enjoy the builds I had
Speaker 4: when I would do mocks and take a tight end
Speaker 4: in the first round. So the thing is about the
Speaker 4: argument with wide receivers, like positional scarcity does matter. And
Speaker 4: I kind of came around to the Kelsey thing by
Speaker 4: the end of his great run, you can sort of
Speaker 4: and I always do take issue with the idea that
Speaker 4: wide receivers suit deep.
Speaker 3: It's not as deep as you think. But there are
Speaker 3: other options.
Speaker 4: If you bypass a wide receiver in the first round
Speaker 4: or even the second round, like you can kind of
Speaker 4: backfill it in rounds three through six and still come
Speaker 4: away with a pretty good wide receiver corps. Yeah, but
Speaker 4: if tight end gets away from you after a certain point,
Speaker 4: I mean, you're gonna get crushed at the position. And
Speaker 4: instead of having this guy who uh you know, I
Speaker 4: do think is kind of generational considering for him to
Speaker 4: put up these numbers as an early declare rookie just
Speaker 4: incredible and like he was phenomenal at Georgia when he
Speaker 4: was an eighteen year old freshman, true freshman, Like he
Speaker 4: has been way above the class every step of the way,
Speaker 4: and I think that's just going to continue. I don't
Speaker 4: think he's like the Kyle Pitts result is not a
Speaker 4: possibility in my opinion.
Speaker 1: I will say that the gap of like what we
Speaker 1: used to look at where it was like Kittle and
Speaker 1: Kelsey and Andrew like that has changed. Like Kelsey, I
Speaker 1: don't want to say wash, but it's just not the same version.
Speaker 1: Like you know Kittle and McBride, it seems like if
Speaker 1: you're gonna make the argument for what is the top tier,
Speaker 1: it's like Kittle, McBride and Bowers, and it's like, how
Speaker 1: close is all of that? So from a positional scarcity standpoint,
Speaker 1: it makes sense I can't push that. But don't worry.
Speaker 1: We get to pick on Jake here in just a minute.
Speaker 1: Oh hold on, we'll do it.
Speaker 3: I want to.
Speaker 2: I want to say no because I want to touch
Speaker 2: on one thing that I think kind of might get
Speaker 2: glossed over too, is Pat brought up bills, and I agree,
Speaker 2: like one of the biggest reasons is I don't love
Speaker 2: my bill at tight end. I will say it's not
Speaker 2: one hundred percent, but I feel for everybody out there
Speaker 2: that does want to go this route. I would lean
Speaker 2: into not zero RB, but I would push further down
Speaker 2: of let me wait on running back, because the problem
Speaker 2: is if you take tight end and then you do
Speaker 2: take running back, now you're almost creating this problem, so
Speaker 2: to speak, at wide receiver, where the bills you're talking about,
Speaker 2: like the bills that come out if you do kind
Speaker 2: of lean into us zero RB ish kind of run
Speaker 2: when you do take Bowers. Your team looks better construst
Speaker 2: when you're done, because you still have the wide receiver strength,
Speaker 2: and the drop off that you've already given at running
Speaker 2: back isn't as great as the drop off you're gonna
Speaker 2: give at wide receiver if you try to play balance
Speaker 2: after that.
Speaker 1: And sometimes, like those type of builds give me anxiety,
Speaker 1: like where you're chasing yourself and you're playing like like
Speaker 1: I may I'm boring sometimes and that's why I don't
Speaker 1: do those tight end builds because I'm always playing from
Speaker 1: behind at a certain spot. And you know, like Waivers
Speaker 1: been great the last couple of years, to be honest
Speaker 1: with you, you can make some big pickups and you
Speaker 1: know you don't have to. Your draft is not one.
Speaker 1: On draft day, you know it's gonna you're gonna have
Speaker 1: a pretty good idea once you get a couple of
Speaker 1: weeks in, you've made the right moves and stuff like that,
Speaker 1: and you do have the position locked up, there's no
Speaker 1: question about it. It just there's some inherent risk. Nine
Speaker 1: and ten we got a combination of wide receivers. We
Speaker 1: mentioned Jake's pick at eight was a monro Saint Brown.
Speaker 1: Pat You've got a Manra at nine. Jake, you've got
Speaker 1: Brian Thomas at nine. At ten, that's where Pat's got
Speaker 1: Brian Thomas, and then Jake, you've got Malik Neighbors. This
Speaker 1: is a really great collection of wide receivers. A Monro seems,
Speaker 1: I mean, he could almost live in like a tier
Speaker 1: maybe above these guys, but you get just massive amounts
Speaker 1: of big targets. Brian Thomas was just an absolute destroyer
Speaker 1: of worlds for all the positive reasons for fantasy. Shout
Speaker 1: out to Ericson for his like seventeen to one Brian
Speaker 1: Thomas bet for this year. So I'm just throwing a
Speaker 1: couple of wide receivers at you, Jake, Why don't you
Speaker 1: give us a couple quick hits or any thoughts. Brian Thomas,
Speaker 1: Malik Nighbors, a mon Ross, Saint Brown. This is a
Speaker 1: nice crew of wide receivers we've got here.
Speaker 2: It is and I think some people similar to this
Speaker 2: year might be happier draft in the back end of
Speaker 2: the first round than you are at the top because
Speaker 2: you kind of doubled down. And then we'll talk about
Speaker 2: guys that missed and be able to hit one of
Speaker 2: those that we would think could possibly be first round talents.
Speaker 2: You're also coming to somebody that you can't see. But
Speaker 2: I have a Brian Thomas signed football job behind me
Speaker 2: that as soon as he was drafted and as soon
Speaker 2: as he changed his signature. You can go back look
Speaker 2: online he hast b Thomas eleven when he was in
Speaker 2: college and then when he got signed in the NFL
Speaker 2: and switched at to seven. Now it's just BT seven,
Speaker 2: much cleaner, much nicer looking. But you're coming from somebody
Speaker 2: who is a Brian Thomas guy to start with, who
Speaker 2: who said that he deserved to be in the conversation
Speaker 2: with Malik Neighbors. So like, I don't want people to
Speaker 2: be like, you know, Jake's coming impartial. I'm kind of
Speaker 2: coming a little bit rose colored glasses on Brian Thomas.
Speaker 2: But similar to some of these arguments we're saying here
Speaker 2: is we have Trevor Lawrence who might be playing like
Speaker 2: he's not obviously playing for his NFL career with the
Speaker 2: contract he has, but he might be playing for the
Speaker 2: last shot gas but hoping he can even be a
Speaker 2: top twelve quarterback in the NFL next year. Like there's
Speaker 2: certain questions of like we were all wrong on Trevor
Speaker 2: Lawrence right now, like there's nothing to improve. So bad
Speaker 2: year from Trevor Lawrence. Then not even Trevor Lawrence at quarterback,
Speaker 2: Mac Freakin Jones and Brian Thomas.
Speaker 3: Is putting up.
Speaker 2: Oh, by the way, the only AFC wide receiver better
Speaker 2: than him in yards and touchdowns was that Jamar Chase guy,
Speaker 2: by the way, who should have been in the Pro Bowl,
Speaker 2: Brian Thomas, not Zay Flowers. I just throw that out
Speaker 2: as well because of that, the numbers he put up,
Speaker 2: And I think that if we were talking about any
Speaker 2: other NFL draft, Brian Thomas could have been seen as
Speaker 2: the best wide receiver in the draft class.
Speaker 1: He just got hit with a really bad year.
Speaker 2: So I actually I'm setting that all up to say,
Speaker 2: is I really toyed with not just having Brian Thomas
Speaker 2: over Nico Collins, Malik Neighbors, and others. I went back
Speaker 2: and forth and potentially even over a Mamras Saint Brown.
Speaker 2: I jokingly said this on the Serious XM Show that
Speaker 2: I just did earlier today with Dane and I said,
Speaker 2: if Ben Johnson ends up with the Jaguars, Brian Thomas
Speaker 2: a number one wide receiver, but tongue and cheek in
Speaker 2: the fact, like, I think he would be in the
Speaker 2: tier with Chase and Jefferson if he had a coordinator
Speaker 2: that knows how to run that office and potentially save
Speaker 2: Lawrence's career.
Speaker 1: Pat, what do you think about the idea of Brian
Speaker 1: Thomas ahead of a monro Saint Brown?
Speaker 4: Well, I was just my mouthless starting the water about
Speaker 4: the Ben Johnson Brian Thomas combination, but I kind of
Speaker 4: feel like the Jaguars retention of Trent Balky might have
Speaker 4: squashed that dream. I don't I don't think that's gonna
Speaker 4: be the first choice for Ben Johnson, who's pretty pretty
Speaker 4: much the pick of the litter for head coach candidates.
Speaker 4: I was fascinated to see that. So I know Jake's
Speaker 4: a Giants fan. No, I haven't been.
Speaker 2: I haven't been since the second year they drive Daniel Jones.
Speaker 2: I said I'll give him one year. I've sworn off.
Speaker 2: I have a Texans hat sitting right there I almost
Speaker 2: wore today, but Notre Dame is playing tonight. Like I
Speaker 2: legitimately said the year they drafted Daniel Jones, I'm done
Speaker 2: with this team. I'm so sick of the organization. John
Speaker 2: Marra I said, I'll give him one year to prove
Speaker 2: I was wrong about Daniel Jones, And so the next
Speaker 2: year after that, switched to the Texans before they draft
Speaker 2: the Stroud because I'm like, nobody likes the Texans and
Speaker 2: the Colors are similar. That's actually why I went to
Speaker 2: the Texans for a reason.
Speaker 4: So I thought I might get pushed back on having
Speaker 4: Thomas ahead of neighbors. And then Jake's frankings come in
Speaker 4: and I see that Jake actually as Brian Thomas franked
Speaker 4: ahead of me. But I have the same sort of
Speaker 4: internal debates about Brian Thomas junior versus Nico Collins and
Speaker 4: aman Ros Saint Brown. And I also thought of putting
Speaker 4: BTJ ahead of amen Ra and decided against it.
Speaker 3: But to me, that's almost like a coin flat.
Speaker 1: Now there might be so fluidity with that in the offseason,
Speaker 1: it seems like as well.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and Jake mentioned it another player like Rock Bowers
Speaker 4: with very suboptimal quarterbacking in twenty twenty four, who thrived
Speaker 4: despite it and whose quarterback situation can only get better.
Speaker 4: So yeah, I mean, I think he's a slam dunk
Speaker 4: first rounder. I don't know if everyone's going to see
Speaker 4: it that way, like I think when ADP information comes in,
Speaker 4: he might be an early second rounder. But another thing
Speaker 4: that makes my mouth water the possibility that you could
Speaker 4: have on the turn the two LSU receivers, if you're
Speaker 4: sitting on the wheel like that would be pretty fun.
Speaker 1: See, now you're getting us into a whole new territory.
Speaker 1: All right, we're gonna get fun here. We're gonna pick
Speaker 1: on Jake here in just one second. But first we've
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Speaker 1: to make your bets and you can follow like Pat
Speaker 1: and myself. You can see what our bets are throughout
Speaker 1: the week. All right, I jokingly say we're gonna pick
Speaker 1: on Jake. I'm not surprised about this at all because
Speaker 1: I said, does a rookie belong in the first round?
Speaker 1: Can you put one? The answer is yes, coming in
Speaker 1: at eleven not a rookie for Pat, is Nico Collins
Speaker 1: coming in for Jake at eleven? Is Ashton gent the
Speaker 1: rookie running back. I remember having the Saquon conversations years
Speaker 1: and years and years ago. He did this, and Jake
Speaker 1: has kind of come out on top on a decent
Speaker 1: amount of these. Jake Genty doesn't have a destination. But
Speaker 1: does it matter? It clearly doesn't. You've got Ashton Genty
Speaker 1: as the eleventh overall player, a first round pick going
Speaker 1: into twenty twenty five. Let's hear it.
Speaker 2: It really comes down to you. No, it doesn't matter
Speaker 2: because I know whoever's going to make that leap is
Speaker 2: probably walking into twenty touches a game. And similar to
Speaker 2: Ezekie Elliott before Saquon Barkley and then Saquon Barkley. Heck,
Speaker 2: even some of the more recent ones. Beejhon Robinson was
Speaker 2: technically a disappointment as an RB one. He was still
Speaker 2: in RB one his rookie season. So I look to
Speaker 2: all these and I say the obvious easiest one everybody's
Speaker 2: making is the Cowboys. But what let's be honest. It's
Speaker 2: almost like joke tongue in cheek, like, oh, let's just
Speaker 2: put him on the Cowboys. What if he gets past
Speaker 2: the Cowboys he ends up on the Chargers. You're telling
Speaker 2: me he's not going to be new Ladanian Thomlinson.
Speaker 1: What if he gets further than that?
Speaker 2: And the Vikings say, you know what, Aaron Jones contract
Speaker 2: is no dead money. Will draft gint and add him
Speaker 2: to that offense? Like there are teams what if the
Speaker 2: Bengals do it? There are teams in the first round
Speaker 2: where you're like, oh my god, three hundred touches from
Speaker 2: this guy. And yes, the talent he deserves to be
Speaker 2: in the name conversation of rookie Saquon Barkley, Rookie Ezekie Elliott,
Speaker 2: rookie is some of the best we've ever seen. And
Speaker 2: that's why he's going to be a first round pick.
Speaker 2: That's why there's talk about him being a top fifteen pick.
Speaker 2: And that's what all comes down to is I start
Speaker 2: looking at the running backs we're going to bring up
Speaker 2: as guys that just missed, and we have workload concerns,
Speaker 2: We have offense concerns, and I even say, on the
Speaker 2: worst possible offense in the league, put put him on
Speaker 2: the freaking Giants. He'll be Saquon Barkley on the Giants,
Speaker 2: which is still a top ten running back. Does he
Speaker 2: deserve to be first round?
Speaker 1: No?
Speaker 2: But I'm assuming it's not going to be that bad.
Speaker 2: It's really what it comes down to.
Speaker 1: I suppose that my only concern. But this is like
Speaker 1: going to work against what I'm saying, Like what if
Speaker 1: he goes into a situation where he's Bucky Irving to
Speaker 1: Rashad White. Well, Bucky ended up taking the role halfway
Speaker 1: through the year and became you know, an RB one
Speaker 1: and Da da da. I guess my question always with
Speaker 1: a lot of these guys, more, particularly because we don't
Speaker 1: know his destination at this point, is what he has
Speaker 1: to do to return this value When you're taking him
Speaker 1: over Josh Jacobs, you're taking him over Jonathan Taylor, you're
Speaker 1: taking him over Christian McCaffrey. I know there's like obviously
Speaker 1: concerns there, but you're doing You're making some big, bold
Speaker 1: moves and what he has to return value? Pat you
Speaker 1: do not have genty inside your first round here, what
Speaker 1: do you think the best case scenario can be for
Speaker 1: him that associates with your rank?
Speaker 4: So I've got him in the middle of the second round,
Speaker 4: and like, I don't think it would be a tall
Speaker 4: order for him to return first round on value? What
Speaker 4: does he need to do? Sixteen hundred yards from scrimmage?
Speaker 4: Ten touchdowns and he's worth it?
Speaker 2: Like that's oh, you're like kind of a shoulder struggling.
Speaker 1: What's it gonna be like? And he's like, I mean
Speaker 1: that's pretty tough to.
Speaker 4: Do for genty And I mean Jake makes the great
Speaker 4: point that it's been kind of assumed he's going to
Speaker 4: Dallas and that's almost like a worst case scenario for him,
Speaker 4: and Dallas wouldn't be a bad landing spot for him
Speaker 4: at all. But like the Chargers or Vikings, like that's delicious,
Speaker 4: and I mean, he really is that special prospect. I mean,
Speaker 4: a guy who shouldered a massive workload at Boise State,
Speaker 4: just carried the whole offense on his back all season,
Speaker 4: and his contact balance is so extraordinary, like among the
Speaker 4: best probably we've ever seen. Like you can just not
Speaker 4: knock this guy off his feet easily at all, Like
Speaker 4: it takes more than one tackler, or you got to
Speaker 4: wrap him up like he just is impervious to contact.
Speaker 4: It's obscene.
Speaker 1: Let me ask you this, then fifteen touches of gent
Speaker 1: per game is a first rounder.
Speaker 4: PAT fifteen Probably not. Then he's probably more of a
Speaker 4: mid first round or on mid second rounder, which.
Speaker 1: Is where I have you agree with that, Jacobs f.
Speaker 2: I'm glad you put this. So let me put this
Speaker 2: like I'll play my own Devil's advocate here. Let's say
Speaker 2: it does go that route and it is fifteen touches game.
Speaker 2: Let's say he is Bjohn Robinson's first year, which was
Speaker 2: RB nine, which we saw Moster jump him. I mean,
Speaker 2: nobody saw Mostert coming, but Derek Henry was in front
Speaker 2: of him and others like that. Let's play devil's avocates
Speaker 2: say that what did you really lose from the end
Speaker 2: of the first round to the middle of the second.
Speaker 3: Not much.
Speaker 2: But I think the equitable situation is that just as
Speaker 2: likely as it is for him to be fringe RB one,
Speaker 2: there's a world just like Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott
Speaker 2: where he finishes RB one or two. Like I think
Speaker 2: both scenarios are in play. And that's why at the
Speaker 2: end of the first round, maybe when people look at
Speaker 2: this and take a step back and say, look at
Speaker 2: only Jake's running back ranks, like wow, that's that's a
Speaker 2: little crazy to have him as a top four, top
Speaker 2: five running back. But what's really the big difference between
Speaker 2: four and seven when you're at this point in the draft.
Speaker 2: If you don't draft them at the end of the
Speaker 2: first round, you're not getting them. And that's really what
Speaker 2: it comes down to. If you want to make the
Speaker 2: argument for some of those running backs we're going to
Speaker 2: talk about, fine, cool, but I think there is a
Speaker 2: ceiling where he's the first or second running back period overall.
Speaker 1: You want to be a real psychopath, you could take
Speaker 1: like Bowers and Ingenti and just the first and second
Speaker 1: round and just like live that world. We're talking a
Speaker 1: lot about the guys that just missed it, so let's
Speaker 1: kind of get to that. The final pick. By the way,
Speaker 1: at twelve players, we have talked about Pat'sott Molenk neighbors Jake.
Speaker 1: You've got Nico Collins that finishes out the first round.
Speaker 1: If you are score if you're doing scoreboard here, the
Speaker 1: differences were Gentie and Bowers. Those were the well, I mean,
Speaker 1: there's like variations of numbers, but those are the two
Speaker 1: players that one did not have the other did not have.
Speaker 1: So the question is who missed out? You don't have
Speaker 1: to give me all of the players, but Pat, let's
Speaker 1: actually start with you on this one. Who missed out
Speaker 1: that made you uneasy? It could be a couple players.
Speaker 1: It could be you know, one or two or three
Speaker 1: whatever that you really wanted to get in there. You
Speaker 1: think maybe your deservative first rounds or were there none?
Speaker 1: Were all these guys just like assured second rounds, but
Speaker 1: just curious that who just missed your cut?
Speaker 4: Mostly a collection of running backs Welsh, It was a Chan,
Speaker 4: It was Josh Jacobs, it was Derrick Henry, and it
Speaker 4: was Bucky Irving.
Speaker 3: Those were the guys.
Speaker 4: And I think Henry Henry is probably going to be
Speaker 4: the most glaring omission to a lot of people. But
Speaker 4: he did just turn thirty one. I have to admit
Speaker 4: to being kind of an agist, and maybe Henry is
Speaker 4: indeed a different species altogether, and it's going to keep
Speaker 4: churning out numbers like this till he's thirty six. But
Speaker 4: he's thirty one and doesn't really catch passes. So I
Speaker 4: just have a hard time sticking with that archetype as
Speaker 4: he continues to get a little bit older. And I
Speaker 4: know I felt the same way coming into this year,
Speaker 4: and I didn't get Henry on any of my teams
Speaker 4: and it sort of burned me. But you know, I'm
Speaker 4: just kind of going down swinging with that take, Jake.
Speaker 1: I'm mean, I guess there's probably a couple, So I'm
Speaker 1: curious who missed it and who's the one that really
Speaker 1: stood out for me?
Speaker 2: Like, yeah, Derrick Henry, Karen Williams, even Bucky Irving I
Speaker 2: think could do more, Jonathan Taylor a chance, Like I'm
Speaker 2: just gonna throw this one out. This isn't the one
Speaker 2: that stands out, but I think I'm gonna continue to
Speaker 2: say it. He doesn't need When we talk about these
Speaker 2: things a lot of times too. Is why we talk
Speaker 2: ADP is because you don't have to take these guys here.
Speaker 2: But I'm gonna go right back to somebody who had
Speaker 2: a ton of and I know health is a major concern,
Speaker 2: but you know who finished with better points per game
Speaker 2: than Justin Jefferson T Higgins Cincinnati Bengal IF t. Higgins
Speaker 2: is back on the Bengals. His production on a per
Speaker 2: game basis is first round worthy. You don't have to
Speaker 2: take him there. You can get into the third. That's
Speaker 2: why I'm actually with the one I'm gonna say is
Speaker 2: not Derrick Henry. I'm gonna say the same thing I
Speaker 2: said last year about Derreck Henry as he's a freaking nature.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna keep doing it until he stops, because he's
Speaker 2: a freaking nature. In his first two years weren't real workloads. Anyway,
Speaker 2: I wanted to put him in the first round. But
Speaker 2: the one that I struggled with the most was actually
Speaker 2: Jonathan Taylor, and it comes down to with or without
Speaker 2: Anthony Richardson. Like Jonathan Taylor, the reason I had him
Speaker 2: on quite a few teams is because he was projected
Speaker 2: from my highest carry volume this season, and if you
Speaker 2: actually parse him out to seventeen games, he would have
Speaker 2: had the most carries in the NFL by a decent margin.
Speaker 2: This guy was averaging twenty one carries per game. The
Speaker 2: downside is the more of those carries, the bigger games
Speaker 2: came with Joe Flacco than they did with Anthony Richardson.
Speaker 2: And I'm not playing that crutch argument of like the
Speaker 2: Jalen hurt Steels touchdowns, Josh Allen Steel's touchdowns, because he
Speaker 2: saw how that worked out, that this year worked out
Speaker 2: just fine. It comes down to Anthony Richards just just
Speaker 2: runs more, and then you only get seventeen carries from
Speaker 2: Jonathan Taylor. And I know that sounds like, oh wow,
Speaker 2: I would still take seventeen carries from Jonathan Taylor. But
Speaker 2: you're also to Pat's argument with Anthony richardson not getting
Speaker 2: the volume in the receiving game that you might get
Speaker 2: with Joe Flacco or other quarterbacks. So that's why I
Speaker 2: really wanted to And Taylor did finish so super strong
Speaker 2: that he finished his at top six running back, but
Speaker 2: that was weighted heavily by the Joe Flack. So I
Speaker 2: want to put him there. I just I don't think
Speaker 2: he can get there because of his environment.
Speaker 1: Last question, we can do it kind of a quick one.
Speaker 1: Where does Christian McCaffrey fit in these drafts? You guys
Speaker 1: had not one single reference. He was the number one
Speaker 1: overall player. It's still a San Francisco forty nine er offense.
Speaker 1: Injuries are absolutely scary, and maybe it's going to go
Speaker 1: down this route, but there was not one mention of
Speaker 1: him remotely close into what you guys were talking about. So, Jake,
Speaker 1: let's start with you. Where does Christian McCaffrey fit.
Speaker 2: I'm so glad you asked that we're actually doing most
Speaker 2: contentious names over the athletic right now, and one was
Speaker 2: Christian McCaffrey, not even first round. The question was Christian
Speaker 2: McCaffrey top ten running back?
Speaker 1: I said, one.
Speaker 2: Hundred not a question in my mind, because yes, we
Speaker 2: can play the injury game. We've brought up a lot
Speaker 2: of players that we talked about the injury game. And yes,
Speaker 2: there are histories with mccouah, histories with T. Higgins, and
Speaker 2: we do have a history now with Christian McCaffrey.
Speaker 1: We've had it before.
Speaker 2: We just had it two years ago for the twenty
Speaker 2: twenty three season when everybody's like, ooh, I don't know
Speaker 2: if I can do Christian McCaffrey in the first round
Speaker 2: because look at he keeps getting hurt. If Christian McCaffrey
Speaker 2: plays fifteen games for the forty nine ers next year,
Speaker 2: he's gonna be a top five running back. And that's
Speaker 2: really what it comes down to. So you don't have
Speaker 2: to take him in the first round, and I had
Speaker 2: a feeling you're gonna bring him up, which why I
Speaker 2: didn't put him in that list. I'd probably have a
Speaker 2: tough if I'm on the board, I've only had four
Speaker 2: running backs, I would sit there and consider hard as
Speaker 2: the fifth running back, Christian McCaffrey, just because who's left
Speaker 2: from this group? Who can finish number one? Nobody but
Speaker 2: Christian McCaffrey.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's kind of my big point homer Ism. Aside, Pat,
Speaker 1: same thing, Where does Christian McCaffrey truly fit in this
Speaker 1: for you?
Speaker 4: I have him ranked RB nine, and I think he's
Speaker 4: like sort of in the back end of the second round,
Speaker 4: and to me, like he is an ideal pick. I
Speaker 4: always think draft strategy should be tailored to how you
Speaker 4: relate to the other fantasy managers in your league, Like
Speaker 4: are you one of the sharks or are you playing
Speaker 4: against a bunch of really sharky people?
Speaker 3: And maybe you're.
Speaker 4: Strength of certainty and we this loves risk, And if
Speaker 4: you have a lot of really sharky owners in your
Speaker 4: league who you know are obsessed enough to do this
Speaker 4: for a living, perhaps maybe it's worth it to take
Speaker 4: a swing on Christian McCaffrey late in the second round,
Speaker 4: because if he hits, he's going to hit big. And
Speaker 4: you know, obviously we know the risk, but he is
Speaker 4: a guy who could give you a chance to win
Speaker 4: your league if you hit on him around the two
Speaker 4: three turn.
Speaker 1: Pat fitz Morris and Athletics own Jake Seeley Jack, what
Speaker 1: you got going on? You just mentioning you guys were
Speaker 1: talking about the most contentious names anything else.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm doing my off season series of looking at
Speaker 2: projections and their finishes in the wildest outliers and then
Speaker 2: the ones that I hit closest on, but what we
Speaker 2: learn from them, like what are our takeaways? And it's
Speaker 2: quarterback and then positions from there, so the quarterback next week.
Speaker 1: Nice, Well, Jake is a must follow Pat fitz Morris always.
Speaker 1: You can find me out there as well. You guys
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Speaker 1: thank you so much for talking twenty twenty five. Hopefully
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