WEBVTT - Bloomberg Daybreak: January 31, 2023

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<v Speaker 1>Live from the Bloomberg Interactive Burgers Studios is Bloomberg day

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<v Speaker 1>Break for Tuesday, January thirty one. Coming up today, The

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<v Speaker 1>investors remain cautious as the Fed kicks off its first

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<v Speaker 1>policy meeting of three for the first time in a year.

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<v Speaker 1>The I m f A raises its global economic growth

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<v Speaker 1>outlook ubs shair slide is, the firm's investment bank underperforms

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<v Speaker 1>its US rivals, and the White House moves to end

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<v Speaker 1>COVID emergency measures. More Memphis police officers have been disciplined

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<v Speaker 1>in the deadly beating Tyree Nichols, plus concealed Carree gun

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<v Speaker 1>restrictions have been blocked In New Jersey, I'm Michael barn

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<v Speaker 1>More Ahead, I'm John stattwer In sports Lebron James didn't

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<v Speaker 1>play in the nets in Brooklyn. Beat the Lakers, who

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<v Speaker 1>visit the Knicks tonight. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>day Break on Bloomberg eleven, Freo New York, Bloomberg Washington,

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<v Speaker 1>d C, Bloomberg one oh six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine sixties,

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<v Speaker 1>San Francisco, Sirius x M one nineteen and around the

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<v Speaker 1>world on Bloomberg Radio dot Com. UM and via the

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business add good morning. I'm Nathan Hagar and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Karin Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today. The

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<v Speaker 1>Federal Reserve kicks off its first policy meeting of today

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<v Speaker 1>and that has investors trading cautiously. Yesterday was the worst

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<v Speaker 1>for the NASDAC one x in five weeks, while the

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<v Speaker 1>SMP five hundred fell the most nearly two weeks. Dennis Gartman,

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<v Speaker 1>chairman of the University of acron Endowment Investment Committee, says

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<v Speaker 1>the Fed may be more aggressive than investors think right now.

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<v Speaker 1>That consensus is the Fed is going to raise the

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<v Speaker 1>overnight said funds raised by twenty five basis points. I

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<v Speaker 1>have a sneaky suspicion they'll probably go by fifty, but

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<v Speaker 1>time shall tell. But we have a you had a

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<v Speaker 1>strong rally since October last year. We found some support

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<v Speaker 1>for the SMP, We found some support for the NASDAC,

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<v Speaker 1>but the rally head has probably exhausted itself. Dennis Gartman,

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<v Speaker 1>the former publisher of the Gartment Letter, says he is

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<v Speaker 1>backing away from a marginal long position and stocks overall,

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<v Speaker 1>and he's been bearish on the market since January of

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<v Speaker 1>last year. Nathan, there are signs of hope. For the

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<v Speaker 1>first time in a year, the International Monetary Fund is

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<v Speaker 1>raising its global economic growth outlook. We get the details

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<v Speaker 1>live but the Bloomberg Steve rapp Aboard, Good morning, Steve,

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<v Speaker 1>Good morning, Karen and Nathan. The i m F predicts

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<v Speaker 1>gross domestic product will expand two point nine percent this

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<v Speaker 1>year before rebounding to three point one percent in twenty four.

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<v Speaker 1>Chief economist Pierre Olivier Gurasha tells Bloomberg TV the numbers

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<v Speaker 1>for global growth remain well below pre pandemic levels. The

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<v Speaker 1>worry is more with what we call core inflation that

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<v Speaker 1>excludes energy and food prices are typically more volatile, and

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<v Speaker 1>this core inflation measures have shown more persistent, and they

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<v Speaker 1>have not picked yet in many countries, and they're still

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<v Speaker 1>far away from settlement targets. So the job is not done.

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<v Speaker 1>Gassia says, there are still some challenges to get on

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<v Speaker 1>our way to sustainable recovery. Live in New York. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Steve Rappaport, Bloomberg Daybreak. Thank you, Steve. Turning to corporate

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<v Speaker 1>earnings now getting the first results from European banks, and

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<v Speaker 1>shares of ubs are down three and a half percent

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<v Speaker 1>of the Swiss Bank reported profit above estimates. Revenues at

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<v Speaker 1>the investment bank fell by twenty four percent, and compensation

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<v Speaker 1>costs rose. UBS CEO Ralph Hammers says, well, things are

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<v Speaker 1>looking up. Clients remain conscious. We see positive news coming

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<v Speaker 1>from China. We see positive news coming on on on,

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<v Speaker 1>also inflation. We see some light life back in the

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<v Speaker 1>elaborage capital markets, which is normally a leading indicator. However,

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<v Speaker 1>all early, all early movements, so I don't think there

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<v Speaker 1>was a trend there yet. So for the moment, I

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<v Speaker 1>do think that our clients are hopeful, but in a

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<v Speaker 1>wait and see pattern. UBS CEO Ralph Hammers tells us

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<v Speaker 1>the bank plans to buy back more than five billion

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<v Speaker 1>dollars of shares this year. Stay tuned for more of

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<v Speaker 1>that interview coming up shortly on Bloomberg Daybreak. Well back

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<v Speaker 1>here in the US, Nathan, we get earning from thirty

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<v Speaker 1>companies in the S and P five hund today and

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<v Speaker 1>then includes oil behemoth ex On mobile, we get a

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<v Speaker 1>preview from Bloomberg's Tom Busby after a record profit made

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<v Speaker 1>in last Sumber's third quarter, when prices at the gas

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<v Speaker 1>pump at all time highs the nation's biggest oil company,

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<v Speaker 1>is expected to see earnings fall by as much as

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<v Speaker 1>twenty six percent. That's on lower oil and natural gas prices. Still,

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<v Speaker 1>full year profits expected to top fifty seven and a

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<v Speaker 1>half billion, blowing away the previous record set back in

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<v Speaker 1>two thousand eight. For the just finished quarter, look for

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<v Speaker 1>adjusted earnings per share of three dollars thirty cents on

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<v Speaker 1>net income of thirteen point five billion dollars. I'm Tom

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<v Speaker 1>busby Bloomberg Daybreak. Thanks Tom, let's turn to the pandemic

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<v Speaker 1>now and policy out of d C. The White House

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<v Speaker 1>will end a pair of COVID nineteen emergency declarations in May.

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<v Speaker 1>Amy Morris explains what it means from our Bloomberg newsroom

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<v Speaker 1>in Washington. The COVID nineteen National Emergency and Public Health

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<v Speaker 1>Emergency will be extended to May eleventh and then lifted.

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<v Speaker 1>Millions of Americans have received free COVID tests, treatments, and vaccines,

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<v Speaker 1>and not all that will be free anymore. It will

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<v Speaker 1>also mean the end of Title forty two, which allows

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<v Speaker 1>border agents to expel migrants at ports of entry without

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<v Speaker 1>the chance to ask for asylum, and the continuous enrollment

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<v Speaker 1>provision of medicaid will expire. The CDC says five people

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<v Speaker 1>in the US die each day from COVID nineteen in Washington,

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<v Speaker 1>I maybe Morris Bloomberg Daybreak right, Amy, thank you my

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<v Speaker 1>US China relations also in focus this morning, the Biden

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<v Speaker 1>administration is stepping up its crackdown on the Chinese industrial sector.

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg News has learned it's considering whether to cut off

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<v Speaker 1>Hahwei Technologies from all of its American suppliers, that includes

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<v Speaker 1>chip makers like Intel and Qualcom. Whahwei is long suspected

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<v Speaker 1>of ties to the Beijian government and the Chinese military.

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<v Speaker 1>Meantimecare and economic data out of China today point to

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<v Speaker 1>more growth. China's manufacturing and services expanded in January for

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<v Speaker 1>the first time in four months. Bloomberg Daybreak Asia anchor

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<v Speaker 1>Brian Curtis has more from Hong Kong. The COVID reopening

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<v Speaker 1>had a big effect, so did the boost in travel

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<v Speaker 1>and spending during the Lunar New Year holiday that powered

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<v Speaker 1>the Non Manufacturing index to fifty four point four, well

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<v Speaker 1>up on December and higher than the estimate of fifty two.

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<v Speaker 1>The official p m I rose to fifty point one

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<v Speaker 1>from forty seven in December, slightly beating estimates of an

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<v Speaker 1>even fifty. Not too shabby overall in that many businesses

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<v Speaker 1>closed for the holiday and good for the global economy,

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<v Speaker 1>but still a rather uneven path going forward, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>Kong Bryan Curtis, Bloomberg daybreak, right, Brian, thank you, And

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<v Speaker 1>it's the end of an era in the aviation industry.

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<v Speaker 1>Boeing will deliver its final seven forty seven today. A

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<v Speaker 1>cargo version of the jumbo Jack will be turned over

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<v Speaker 1>to Atlas Air Futures lower this morning, your latest local

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<v Speaker 1>headlines straight ahead, This is Bloomberg, Thank you, Caring. It's

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<v Speaker 1>thirty eight degrees in Central Park, might say an early shower,

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<v Speaker 1>especially north of the city. Otherwise partly sunny today, Temperatures

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<v Speaker 1>in the low forties. You can see a few flurries

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<v Speaker 1>tonight as we get down to the upper twenties. Time.

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<v Speaker 1>How to take a look at some of the other

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<v Speaker 1>stories making news in New York and around the world

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<v Speaker 1>with Bloomberg's Michael Bark Morning, Michael good More, Nathan two

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<v Speaker 1>more Memphis police officers have been put on leave, and

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<v Speaker 1>the Tyree Nichols beating death. It marks the sixth and

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<v Speaker 1>seventh officers off the job. Also, two E M T

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<v Speaker 1>s and a driver have now been fired. Congresswoman Gwen Moore,

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<v Speaker 1>a Democrat from Wiskonsin and member of the Black Congressional Caucus,

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<v Speaker 1>discusses police reform efforts in Congress. Moore was asked whether

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<v Speaker 1>any movement on reform can happen in a Republican controlled outs.

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<v Speaker 1>There are be an opportunity to do that because you know,

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<v Speaker 1>when you start talking about a lot of crimes, a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of this is occurring in sort so called red

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<v Speaker 1>state UH and in places not governed by Democrats who

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<v Speaker 1>are in charge, he would say, but this would be

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<v Speaker 1>something we'd be able to bring to their attention. Congresswoman

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<v Speaker 1>Moore spoke with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg sound on, which

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<v Speaker 1>can be heard at five PM. A federal judge in

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<v Speaker 1>New Jersey block to state law restricting the carrying of

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<v Speaker 1>concealed firearms in parks, restaurants, bars, and their public places

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<v Speaker 1>from going into effect. The judge issued a temporary restraining

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<v Speaker 1>order against the law in a suit brought by gun

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<v Speaker 1>rights advocates who are challenging its constitutionality. New Jersey has

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<v Speaker 1>banned guns from public places after last year's Supreme Court ruling.

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<v Speaker 1>The US is reaffirming ties with a key Asian ally.

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<v Speaker 1>The top Pentagon official is in South Korea for talks

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<v Speaker 1>to discuss growing threats from Pyongyang. In Soul, Defense Secretary

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<v Speaker 1>Lloyd Austin described improved efforts to protect the Korean peninsula.

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<v Speaker 1>As things continue to evolve, our alliance continues to strengthen,

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<v Speaker 1>and and UH we look for ways to strengthen that

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<v Speaker 1>extended the turns. Secretary Austin says we have more than

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<v Speaker 1>twenty eight thousand uniformed personnel in South Korea. The worst

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<v Speaker 1>suicide bombing in over four years tour through a mosque

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<v Speaker 1>in a high security compound in northwestern Pakistan's Peshawar City,

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<v Speaker 1>killing at least eighty people and leaving dozens wounded. Former

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<v Speaker 1>President Donald Trump is suing journalist Bob Woodward for releasing

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<v Speaker 1>recordings of interviews that he gave to the journalist in

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<v Speaker 1>twenty nine and Trump claims he never agreed to those

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<v Speaker 1>tapes being shared with the public. Global News twenty four

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<v Speaker 1>hours a day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake, powered

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<v Speaker 1>by more than twenty seven hundred journalists analysts more than

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<v Speaker 1>a hundred twenty countries. I'm Michael Barr. This is Bloomberg Nathan.

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<v Speaker 1>Thanks Michael, time for the Bloomberg Sports Update, brought to

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<v Speaker 1>you by Tri stayed Out. Good morning, John Stash, Good morning, Nathan.

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<v Speaker 1>Lebron James is only visit to New York. Obviously a

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<v Speaker 1>hot ticket chanced to see the guy who's on the

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<v Speaker 1>verge of the coming of the NBA's all time leading score.

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<v Speaker 1>But he played forty four minutes in an overtime lost

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<v Speaker 1>Saturday in Boston and now has a sore foot. So

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<v Speaker 1>no Lebron in Brooklyn, and then that's took advantage. They

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<v Speaker 1>beat the Lakers four, Kyrie Irving twenty six points, Patty

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<v Speaker 1>Mills and Camp Thomas both off the bench for twenty one.

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<v Speaker 1>It's not known if Lebron is gonna play tonight the

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<v Speaker 1>Lakers visit the Knicks. Four NFL teams still looking for

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<v Speaker 1>a head coach. Meanwhile, coordinator switched Kellen Moore, coach the

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<v Speaker 1>Cowboys offense the last four years. The day after his

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<v Speaker 1>departure in Dallas, he joined the staff of the l

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<v Speaker 1>A Chargers that a FC championship game in Kansas City

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<v Speaker 1>will be remembered for the penalty in the final seconds

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<v Speaker 1>on the Bengals, Joseph Aside late hit out of bounds

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<v Speaker 1>of Patrick Mahomes that allowed the Chiefs to get close

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<v Speaker 1>enough to kick a game winning field one. And I

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<v Speaker 1>had the support of my teammates, and I just gotta

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<v Speaker 1>I gotta like Samson, I gotta learn from experience, and um,

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<v Speaker 1>I gotta know that to get close to that quarterback

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<v Speaker 1>whennews close to that silent differs anything that could possibly

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<v Speaker 1>closed the penalty in the situation like that, I gotta

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<v Speaker 1>do better to do one. Cincinnati teammate Jermaine Pratt was

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<v Speaker 1>caught on video criticized you know say he did later apologize.

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<v Speaker 1>Hockey Hall of Famer Bobby Hall has passed away at

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<v Speaker 1>eighty four on the ice. One of the all time greats,

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<v Speaker 1>twelfth time All Star in Chicago, two time m v P.

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<v Speaker 1>Hull was also accused multiple times of domestic violence and

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<v Speaker 1>of making racist comments. John stash Our Bloomberg Sports Live

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<v Speaker 1>from coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco,

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<v Speaker 1>Boston to Washington, d C. Nationwide on Sirius XAMP, the

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.

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<v Speaker 1>Good morning, I'm Nathan Hagar. Let's hear more now from

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<v Speaker 1>our interview with the CEO of UBS, Ralph Hammers. The

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<v Speaker 1>Swiss bank reported earnings this morning that mostly fell flat.

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<v Speaker 1>UBS underperformed its US counterparts, equities revenue slumped, and the

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<v Speaker 1>bank failed to match gains from its peers in fixed

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<v Speaker 1>income trading. It's the first glimpse and how European investment

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<v Speaker 1>banks performed during the most recent quarter. Ralph Hammers says

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<v Speaker 1>last year was marked by a challenging macroeconomic environment. Let's

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<v Speaker 1>get more on the UBS CEOs thoughts and the path ahead.

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<v Speaker 1>In a conversation with Bloomberg's Manus Cranny Blahamas, CEO of

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<v Speaker 1>ubscot to see you this morning, said a numbers, buy back, dividend,

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<v Speaker 1>all glowing headlines, but if you look at the net income,

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<v Speaker 1>it's driven by interesting five percent bump from interest income.

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<v Speaker 1>Is this the peak of interest income? Can it squeeze higher? Well? So, indeed,

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<v Speaker 1>we had a very good set of numbers in the

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<v Speaker 1>fourth quarter, and not only on the income side, but

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<v Speaker 1>specifically also in the an aligning flow side. Twenty three

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<v Speaker 1>billion of that new fee generating assets eleven billion of

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<v Speaker 1>net new money nine billion of net new deposits, basically

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<v Speaker 1>showing the trust of our customers to basically place the

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<v Speaker 1>money with us and for us to help them manage it.

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<v Speaker 1>On the back of that, clearly with lower market values

0:12:32.520 --> 0:12:37.280
<v Speaker 1>on the fee income that was a bit lower, but

0:12:37.679 --> 0:12:41.040
<v Speaker 1>the interest income really came through. It is very much

0:12:41.080 --> 0:12:44.680
<v Speaker 1>the dollar effect and the space Frank effect now as well.

0:12:45.200 --> 0:12:48.800
<v Speaker 1>On the dollar effect, we feel most like and most

0:12:48.840 --> 0:12:52.560
<v Speaker 1>likely peaked. However, there's more to come on euro and

0:12:52.679 --> 0:12:56.839
<v Speaker 1>certainly also on the swift rank. Just two weeks ago

0:12:57.120 --> 0:12:59.080
<v Speaker 1>it was the feeling that maybe we're near the top

0:12:59.120 --> 0:13:01.120
<v Speaker 1>of these central bank in terms of the hiking cycle.

0:13:01.280 --> 0:13:04.400
<v Speaker 1>Specifically the Fed. Paul Krugman joined this, yes, and he said,

0:13:04.400 --> 0:13:08.679
<v Speaker 1>be careful, stop getting over your skis and overconfident on inflation.

0:13:08.840 --> 0:13:12.480
<v Speaker 1>Are you overconfident and picked on inflation? Um, we may

0:13:12.520 --> 0:13:15.240
<v Speaker 1>have picked on inflation, but it doesn't mean that these

0:13:15.280 --> 0:13:18.400
<v Speaker 1>center banks will not further increase some rates. Just to

0:13:18.480 --> 0:13:21.440
<v Speaker 1>be sure, I do think that they are very clear

0:13:21.800 --> 0:13:24.720
<v Speaker 1>in terms of what they want to achieve. They really

0:13:24.840 --> 0:13:28.800
<v Speaker 1>want to get the structural inflation down and that could

0:13:28.840 --> 0:13:34.040
<v Speaker 1>come along with a real deceleration of economic growth. I

0:13:34.080 --> 0:13:38.240
<v Speaker 1>think the recipe is that we rather have a short

0:13:38.360 --> 0:13:42.240
<v Speaker 1>term pain with a long term gain then not being

0:13:42.440 --> 0:13:45.520
<v Speaker 1>tough enough in order to get that inflation back to

0:13:45.600 --> 0:13:48.720
<v Speaker 1>that level. And that is what I think central banks

0:13:48.800 --> 0:13:51.719
<v Speaker 1>have in their minds. In the fourth quarter, you had

0:13:51.720 --> 0:13:53.760
<v Speaker 1>some short term pain. The piece of down seventeen per

0:13:53.760 --> 0:13:56.040
<v Speaker 1>cent transactions we downe in nineteen percent? Is that the

0:13:56.040 --> 0:13:59.320
<v Speaker 1>worst is that? Is that the deer of the side

0:13:59.320 --> 0:14:03.800
<v Speaker 1>lining of wealth engine clients. Well, if you look at

0:14:03.640 --> 0:14:07.400
<v Speaker 1>at the different components on the wealth management side. So

0:14:07.520 --> 0:14:10.200
<v Speaker 1>first what is important is that you see that the

0:14:10.240 --> 0:14:12.640
<v Speaker 1>trust is there and that clients come to you that

0:14:12.679 --> 0:14:15.600
<v Speaker 1>busically shows that we have the right professional services, we

0:14:15.640 --> 0:14:17.600
<v Speaker 1>have the right products, we have the right advice, we

0:14:17.600 --> 0:14:21.840
<v Speaker 1>can take them through a period of challenges and and clarity.

0:14:21.960 --> 0:14:24.720
<v Speaker 1>That period of unclarity is still there. Right. So we

0:14:24.880 --> 0:14:29.160
<v Speaker 1>see positive news coming from China, We see positive news

0:14:29.480 --> 0:14:34.560
<v Speaker 1>coming on on on also inflation. We see some light

0:14:34.920 --> 0:14:38.000
<v Speaker 1>life back in the leverage capital markets, which is normally

0:14:38.040 --> 0:14:42.520
<v Speaker 1>a leading indicator. However, all early all early movements, so

0:14:42.840 --> 0:14:45.240
<v Speaker 1>I don't think there was a trend there yet. So

0:14:45.400 --> 0:14:48.240
<v Speaker 1>for the moment, I do think that our clients are

0:14:48.720 --> 0:14:52.120
<v Speaker 1>hopeful but in a wait and see pattern. But there

0:14:52.120 --> 0:14:54.840
<v Speaker 1>has been a move to risk on as busy debate

0:14:55.200 --> 0:14:57.760
<v Speaker 1>one monthment it's going to move to risk on assets.

0:14:58.240 --> 0:15:01.000
<v Speaker 1>You use the word sideline for well management clients in

0:15:01.040 --> 0:15:04.840
<v Speaker 1>the fourth quarter. Are they nibbling? Are they active in

0:15:05.000 --> 0:15:09.880
<v Speaker 1>acquiring risk on client wisconses. That's not what we see.

0:15:10.000 --> 0:15:13.760
<v Speaker 1>We truly see that they are waiting for more clarity

0:15:13.800 --> 0:15:17.240
<v Speaker 1>to come, and I think that's wise. We really want

0:15:17.280 --> 0:15:19.720
<v Speaker 1>to make sure that there is more visibility. I do

0:15:19.800 --> 0:15:22.280
<v Speaker 1>think that the coming weeks will bring with that more visibility.

0:15:22.320 --> 0:15:25.280
<v Speaker 1>We see these center banks coming to the market. We

0:15:25.400 --> 0:15:29.440
<v Speaker 1>see the New Year's, the Chinese New Year's behind us,

0:15:29.440 --> 0:15:33.040
<v Speaker 1>and see whether the positivism coming from China will continue.

0:15:33.440 --> 0:15:35.760
<v Speaker 1>We see corporate earnest coming through in the next couple

0:15:35.760 --> 0:15:37.400
<v Speaker 1>of weeks as well. So I think the couple of

0:15:37.560 --> 0:15:40.440
<v Speaker 1>the next couple of weeks from different sites will give

0:15:40.480 --> 0:15:43.360
<v Speaker 1>us much more data points to get a feel for

0:15:43.920 --> 0:15:46.520
<v Speaker 1>should we be risk on or not. And that's the

0:15:46.520 --> 0:15:50.320
<v Speaker 1>CEO of UBS, Ralph Hammer's speaking with Bloomberg's Mannis Cranny

0:15:50.440 --> 0:15:54.760
<v Speaker 1>this morning. Earnings from UVS are underwhelming investors. Revenue from

0:15:54.800 --> 0:15:58.800
<v Speaker 1>the bank's Equities division felt in the latest quarter, business

0:15:58.800 --> 0:16:01.920
<v Speaker 1>from foreign exchange ray send credit did grow, but at

0:16:01.960 --> 0:16:05.560
<v Speaker 1>a rate around half what US banks saw in the period,

0:16:05.680 --> 0:16:08.960
<v Speaker 1>And right now we're watching shares of ubs fall there

0:16:09.040 --> 0:16:14.479
<v Speaker 1>down three point six percent. In Zurich, This is Bloomberg

0:16:14.560 --> 0:16:17.720
<v Speaker 1>Daybreak Today, your morning brief on the stories making news

0:16:17.800 --> 0:16:20.960
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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg dot Com. I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen mall Scale.

0:17:00.480 --> 0:17:03.320
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0:17:03.360 --> 0:17:06.600
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