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Speaker 1: Live from the Bloomberg Interactive Burgers Studios is Bloomberg day

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Speaker 1: Break for Tuesday, January thirty one. Coming up today, The

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Speaker 1: investors remain cautious as the Fed kicks off its first

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Speaker 1: policy meeting of three for the first time in a year.

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Speaker 1: The I m f A raises its global economic growth

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Speaker 1: outlook ubs shair slide is, the firm's investment bank underperforms

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Speaker 1: its US rivals, and the White House moves to end

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Speaker 1: COVID emergency measures. More Memphis police officers have been disciplined

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Speaker 1: in the deadly beating Tyree Nichols, plus concealed Carree gun

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Speaker 1: restrictions have been blocked In New Jersey, I'm Michael barn

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Speaker 1: More Ahead, I'm John stattwer In sports Lebron James didn't

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Speaker 1: play in the nets in Brooklyn. Beat the Lakers, who

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Speaker 1: visit the Knicks tonight. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: day Break on Bloomberg eleven, Freo New York, Bloomberg Washington,

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Speaker 1: d C, Bloomberg one oh six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine sixties,

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Speaker 1: San Francisco, Sirius x M one nineteen and around the

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Speaker 1: world on Bloomberg Radio dot Com. UM and via the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business add good morning. I'm Nathan Hagar and I'm

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Speaker 1: Karin Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today. The

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Speaker 1: Federal Reserve kicks off its first policy meeting of today

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Speaker 1: and that has investors trading cautiously. Yesterday was the worst

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Speaker 1: for the NASDAC one x in five weeks, while the

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Speaker 1: SMP five hundred fell the most nearly two weeks. Dennis Gartman,

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Speaker 1: chairman of the University of acron Endowment Investment Committee, says

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Speaker 1: the Fed may be more aggressive than investors think right now.

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Speaker 1: That consensus is the Fed is going to raise the

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Speaker 1: overnight said funds raised by twenty five basis points. I

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Speaker 1: have a sneaky suspicion they'll probably go by fifty, but

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Speaker 1: time shall tell. But we have a you had a

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Speaker 1: strong rally since October last year. We found some support

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Speaker 1: for the SMP, We found some support for the NASDAC,

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Speaker 1: but the rally head has probably exhausted itself. Dennis Gartman,

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Speaker 1: the former publisher of the Gartment Letter, says he is

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Speaker 1: backing away from a marginal long position and stocks overall,

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Speaker 1: and he's been bearish on the market since January of

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Speaker 1: last year. Nathan, there are signs of hope. For the

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Speaker 1: first time in a year, the International Monetary Fund is

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Speaker 1: raising its global economic growth outlook. We get the details

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Speaker 1: live but the Bloomberg Steve rapp Aboard, Good morning, Steve,

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Speaker 1: Good morning, Karen and Nathan. The i m F predicts

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Speaker 1: gross domestic product will expand two point nine percent this

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Speaker 1: year before rebounding to three point one percent in twenty four.

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Speaker 1: Chief economist Pierre Olivier Gurasha tells Bloomberg TV the numbers

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Speaker 1: for global growth remain well below pre pandemic levels. The

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Speaker 1: worry is more with what we call core inflation that

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Speaker 1: excludes energy and food prices are typically more volatile, and

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Speaker 1: this core inflation measures have shown more persistent, and they

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Speaker 1: have not picked yet in many countries, and they're still

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Speaker 1: far away from settlement targets. So the job is not done.

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Speaker 1: Gassia says, there are still some challenges to get on

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Speaker 1: our way to sustainable recovery. Live in New York. I'm

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Speaker 1: Steve Rappaport, Bloomberg Daybreak. Thank you, Steve. Turning to corporate

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Speaker 1: earnings now getting the first results from European banks, and

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Speaker 1: shares of ubs are down three and a half percent

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Speaker 1: of the Swiss Bank reported profit above estimates. Revenues at

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Speaker 1: the investment bank fell by twenty four percent, and compensation

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Speaker 1: costs rose. UBS CEO Ralph Hammers says, well, things are

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Speaker 1: looking up. Clients remain conscious. We see positive news coming

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Speaker 1: from China. We see positive news coming on on on,

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Speaker 1: also inflation. We see some light life back in the

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Speaker 1: elaborage capital markets, which is normally a leading indicator. However,

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Speaker 1: all early, all early movements, so I don't think there

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Speaker 1: was a trend there yet. So for the moment, I

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Speaker 1: do think that our clients are hopeful, but in a

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Speaker 1: wait and see pattern. UBS CEO Ralph Hammers tells us

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Speaker 1: the bank plans to buy back more than five billion

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Speaker 1: dollars of shares this year. Stay tuned for more of

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Speaker 1: that interview coming up shortly on Bloomberg Daybreak. Well back

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Speaker 1: here in the US, Nathan, we get earning from thirty

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Speaker 1: companies in the S and P five hund today and

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Speaker 1: then includes oil behemoth ex On mobile, we get a

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Speaker 1: preview from Bloomberg's Tom Busby after a record profit made

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Speaker 1: in last Sumber's third quarter, when prices at the gas

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Speaker 1: pump at all time highs the nation's biggest oil company,

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Speaker 1: is expected to see earnings fall by as much as

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Speaker 1: twenty six percent. That's on lower oil and natural gas prices. Still,

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Speaker 1: full year profits expected to top fifty seven and a

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Speaker 1: half billion, blowing away the previous record set back in

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Speaker 1: two thousand eight. For the just finished quarter, look for

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Speaker 1: adjusted earnings per share of three dollars thirty cents on

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Speaker 1: net income of thirteen point five billion dollars. I'm Tom

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Speaker 1: busby Bloomberg Daybreak. Thanks Tom, let's turn to the pandemic

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Speaker 1: now and policy out of d C. The White House

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Speaker 1: will end a pair of COVID nineteen emergency declarations in May.

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Speaker 1: Amy Morris explains what it means from our Bloomberg newsroom

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Speaker 1: in Washington. The COVID nineteen National Emergency and Public Health

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Speaker 1: Emergency will be extended to May eleventh and then lifted.

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Speaker 1: Millions of Americans have received free COVID tests, treatments, and vaccines,

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Speaker 1: and not all that will be free anymore. It will

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Speaker 1: also mean the end of Title forty two, which allows

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Speaker 1: border agents to expel migrants at ports of entry without

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Speaker 1: the chance to ask for asylum, and the continuous enrollment

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Speaker 1: provision of medicaid will expire. The CDC says five people

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Speaker 1: in the US die each day from COVID nineteen in Washington,

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Speaker 1: I maybe Morris Bloomberg Daybreak right, Amy, thank you my

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Speaker 1: US China relations also in focus this morning, the Biden

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Speaker 1: administration is stepping up its crackdown on the Chinese industrial sector.

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg News has learned it's considering whether to cut off

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Speaker 1: Hahwei Technologies from all of its American suppliers, that includes

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Speaker 1: chip makers like Intel and Qualcom. Whahwei is long suspected

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Speaker 1: of ties to the Beijian government and the Chinese military.

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Speaker 1: Meantimecare and economic data out of China today point to

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Speaker 1: more growth. China's manufacturing and services expanded in January for

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Speaker 1: the first time in four months. Bloomberg Daybreak Asia anchor

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Speaker 1: Brian Curtis has more from Hong Kong. The COVID reopening

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Speaker 1: had a big effect, so did the boost in travel

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Speaker 1: and spending during the Lunar New Year holiday that powered

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Speaker 1: the Non Manufacturing index to fifty four point four, well

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Speaker 1: up on December and higher than the estimate of fifty two.

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Speaker 1: The official p m I rose to fifty point one

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Speaker 1: from forty seven in December, slightly beating estimates of an

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Speaker 1: even fifty. Not too shabby overall in that many businesses

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Speaker 1: closed for the holiday and good for the global economy,

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Speaker 1: but still a rather uneven path going forward, you know,

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Speaker 1: Kong Bryan Curtis, Bloomberg daybreak, right, Brian, thank you, And

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Speaker 1: it's the end of an era in the aviation industry.

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Speaker 1: Boeing will deliver its final seven forty seven today. A

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Speaker 1: cargo version of the jumbo Jack will be turned over

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Speaker 1: to Atlas Air Futures lower this morning, your latest local

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Speaker 1: headlines straight ahead, This is Bloomberg, Thank you, Caring. It's

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Speaker 1: thirty eight degrees in Central Park, might say an early shower,

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Speaker 1: especially north of the city. Otherwise partly sunny today, Temperatures

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Speaker 1: in the low forties. You can see a few flurries

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Speaker 1: tonight as we get down to the upper twenties. Time.

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Speaker 1: How to take a look at some of the other

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Speaker 1: stories making news in New York and around the world

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Speaker 1: with Bloomberg's Michael Bark Morning, Michael good More, Nathan two

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Speaker 1: more Memphis police officers have been put on leave, and

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Speaker 1: the Tyree Nichols beating death. It marks the sixth and

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Speaker 1: seventh officers off the job. Also, two E M T

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Speaker 1: s and a driver have now been fired. Congresswoman Gwen Moore,

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Speaker 1: a Democrat from Wiskonsin and member of the Black Congressional Caucus,

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Speaker 1: discusses police reform efforts in Congress. Moore was asked whether

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Speaker 1: any movement on reform can happen in a Republican controlled outs.

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Speaker 1: There are be an opportunity to do that because you know,

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Speaker 1: when you start talking about a lot of crimes, a

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Speaker 1: lot of this is occurring in sort so called red

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Speaker 1: state UH and in places not governed by Democrats who

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Speaker 1: are in charge, he would say, but this would be

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Speaker 1: something we'd be able to bring to their attention. Congresswoman

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Speaker 1: Moore spoke with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg sound on, which

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Speaker 1: can be heard at five PM. A federal judge in

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Speaker 1: New Jersey block to state law restricting the carrying of

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Speaker 1: concealed firearms in parks, restaurants, bars, and their public places

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Speaker 1: from going into effect. The judge issued a temporary restraining

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Speaker 1: order against the law in a suit brought by gun

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Speaker 1: rights advocates who are challenging its constitutionality. New Jersey has

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Speaker 1: banned guns from public places after last year's Supreme Court ruling.

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Speaker 1: The US is reaffirming ties with a key Asian ally.

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Speaker 1: The top Pentagon official is in South Korea for talks

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Speaker 1: to discuss growing threats from Pyongyang. In Soul, Defense Secretary

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Speaker 1: Lloyd Austin described improved efforts to protect the Korean peninsula.

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Speaker 1: As things continue to evolve, our alliance continues to strengthen,

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Speaker 1: and and UH we look for ways to strengthen that

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Speaker 1: extended the turns. Secretary Austin says we have more than

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Speaker 1: twenty eight thousand uniformed personnel in South Korea. The worst

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Speaker 1: suicide bombing in over four years tour through a mosque

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Speaker 1: in a high security compound in northwestern Pakistan's Peshawar City,

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Speaker 1: killing at least eighty people and leaving dozens wounded. Former

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Speaker 1: President Donald Trump is suing journalist Bob Woodward for releasing

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Speaker 1: recordings of interviews that he gave to the journalist in

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Speaker 1: twenty nine and Trump claims he never agreed to those

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Speaker 1: tapes being shared with the public. Global News twenty four

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Speaker 1: hours a day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake, powered

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Speaker 1: by more than twenty seven hundred journalists analysts more than

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Speaker 1: a hundred twenty countries. I'm Michael Barr. This is Bloomberg Nathan.

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Speaker 1: Thanks Michael, time for the Bloomberg Sports Update, brought to

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Speaker 1: you by Tri stayed Out. Good morning, John Stash, Good morning, Nathan.

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Speaker 1: Lebron James is only visit to New York. Obviously a

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Speaker 1: hot ticket chanced to see the guy who's on the

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Speaker 1: verge of the coming of the NBA's all time leading score.

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Speaker 1: But he played forty four minutes in an overtime lost

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Speaker 1: Saturday in Boston and now has a sore foot. So

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Speaker 1: no Lebron in Brooklyn, and then that's took advantage. They

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Speaker 1: beat the Lakers four, Kyrie Irving twenty six points, Patty

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Speaker 1: Mills and Camp Thomas both off the bench for twenty one.

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Speaker 1: It's not known if Lebron is gonna play tonight the

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Speaker 1: Lakers visit the Knicks. Four NFL teams still looking for

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Speaker 1: a head coach. Meanwhile, coordinator switched Kellen Moore, coach the

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Speaker 1: Cowboys offense the last four years. The day after his

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Speaker 1: departure in Dallas, he joined the staff of the l

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Speaker 1: A Chargers that a FC championship game in Kansas City

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Speaker 1: will be remembered for the penalty in the final seconds

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Speaker 1: on the Bengals, Joseph Aside late hit out of bounds

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Speaker 1: of Patrick Mahomes that allowed the Chiefs to get close

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Speaker 1: enough to kick a game winning field one. And I

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Speaker 1: had the support of my teammates, and I just gotta

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Speaker 1: I gotta like Samson, I gotta learn from experience, and um,

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Speaker 1: I gotta know that to get close to that quarterback

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Speaker 1: whennews close to that silent differs anything that could possibly

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Speaker 1: closed the penalty in the situation like that, I gotta

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Speaker 1: do better to do one. Cincinnati teammate Jermaine Pratt was

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Speaker 1: caught on video criticized you know say he did later apologize.

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Speaker 1: Hockey Hall of Famer Bobby Hall has passed away at

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Speaker 1: eighty four on the ice. One of the all time greats,

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Speaker 1: twelfth time All Star in Chicago, two time m v P.

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Speaker 1: Hull was also accused multiple times of domestic violence and

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Speaker 1: of making racist comments. John stash Our Bloomberg Sports Live

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Speaker 1: from coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco,

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Speaker 1: Boston to Washington, d C. Nationwide on Sirius XAMP, the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.

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Speaker 1: Good morning, I'm Nathan Hagar. Let's hear more now from

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Speaker 1: our interview with the CEO of UBS, Ralph Hammers. The

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Speaker 1: Swiss bank reported earnings this morning that mostly fell flat.

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Speaker 1: UBS underperformed its US counterparts, equities revenue slumped, and the

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Speaker 1: bank failed to match gains from its peers in fixed

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Speaker 1: income trading. It's the first glimpse and how European investment

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Speaker 1: banks performed during the most recent quarter. Ralph Hammers says

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Speaker 1: last year was marked by a challenging macroeconomic environment. Let's

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Speaker 1: get more on the UBS CEOs thoughts and the path ahead.

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Speaker 1: In a conversation with Bloomberg's Manus Cranny Blahamas, CEO of

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Speaker 1: ubscot to see you this morning, said a numbers, buy back, dividend,

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Speaker 1: all glowing headlines, but if you look at the net income,

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Speaker 1: it's driven by interesting five percent bump from interest income.

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Speaker 1: Is this the peak of interest income? Can it squeeze higher? Well? So, indeed,

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Speaker 1: we had a very good set of numbers in the

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Speaker 1: fourth quarter, and not only on the income side, but

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Speaker 1: specifically also in the an aligning flow side. Twenty three

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Speaker 1: billion of that new fee generating assets eleven billion of

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Speaker 1: net new money nine billion of net new deposits, basically

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Speaker 1: showing the trust of our customers to basically place the

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Speaker 1: money with us and for us to help them manage it.

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Speaker 1: On the back of that, clearly with lower market values

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Speaker 1: on the fee income that was a bit lower, but

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Speaker 1: the interest income really came through. It is very much

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Speaker 1: the dollar effect and the space Frank effect now as well.

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Speaker 1: On the dollar effect, we feel most like and most

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Speaker 1: likely peaked. However, there's more to come on euro and

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Speaker 1: certainly also on the swift rank. Just two weeks ago

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Speaker 1: it was the feeling that maybe we're near the top

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Speaker 1: of these central bank in terms of the hiking cycle.

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Speaker 1: Specifically the Fed. Paul Krugman joined this, yes, and he said,

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Speaker 1: be careful, stop getting over your skis and overconfident on inflation.

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Speaker 1: Are you overconfident and picked on inflation? Um, we may

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Speaker 1: have picked on inflation, but it doesn't mean that these

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Speaker 1: center banks will not further increase some rates. Just to

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Speaker 1: be sure, I do think that they are very clear

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Speaker 1: in terms of what they want to achieve. They really

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Speaker 1: want to get the structural inflation down and that could

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Speaker 1: come along with a real deceleration of economic growth. I

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Speaker 1: think the recipe is that we rather have a short

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Speaker 1: term pain with a long term gain then not being

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Speaker 1: tough enough in order to get that inflation back to

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Speaker 1: that level. And that is what I think central banks

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Speaker 1: have in their minds. In the fourth quarter, you had

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Speaker 1: some short term pain. The piece of down seventeen per

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Speaker 1: cent transactions we downe in nineteen percent? Is that the

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Speaker 1: worst is that? Is that the deer of the side

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Speaker 1: lining of wealth engine clients. Well, if you look at

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Speaker 1: at the different components on the wealth management side. So

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Speaker 1: first what is important is that you see that the

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Speaker 1: trust is there and that clients come to you that

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Speaker 1: busically shows that we have the right professional services, we

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Speaker 1: have the right products, we have the right advice, we

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Speaker 1: can take them through a period of challenges and and clarity.

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Speaker 1: That period of unclarity is still there. Right. So we

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Speaker 1: see positive news coming from China, We see positive news

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Speaker 1: coming on on on also inflation. We see some light

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Speaker 1: life back in the leverage capital markets, which is normally

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Speaker 1: a leading indicator. However, all early all early movements, so

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Speaker 1: I don't think there was a trend there yet. So

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Speaker 1: for the moment, I do think that our clients are

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Speaker 1: hopeful but in a wait and see pattern. But there

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Speaker 1: has been a move to risk on as busy debate

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Speaker 1: one monthment it's going to move to risk on assets.

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Speaker 1: You use the word sideline for well management clients in

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Speaker 1: the fourth quarter. Are they nibbling? Are they active in

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Speaker 1: acquiring risk on client wisconses. That's not what we see.

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Speaker 1: We truly see that they are waiting for more clarity

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Speaker 1: to come, and I think that's wise. We really want

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Speaker 1: to make sure that there is more visibility. I do

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Speaker 1: think that the coming weeks will bring with that more visibility.

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Speaker 1: We see these center banks coming to the market. We

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Speaker 1: see the New Year's, the Chinese New Year's behind us,

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Speaker 1: and see whether the positivism coming from China will continue.

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Speaker 1: We see corporate earnest coming through in the next couple

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Speaker 1: of weeks as well. So I think the couple of

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Speaker 1: the next couple of weeks from different sites will give

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Speaker 1: us much more data points to get a feel for

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Speaker 1: should we be risk on or not. And that's the

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Speaker 1: CEO of UBS, Ralph Hammer's speaking with Bloomberg's Mannis Cranny

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Speaker 1: this morning. Earnings from UVS are underwhelming investors. Revenue from

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Speaker 1: the bank's Equities division felt in the latest quarter, business

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Speaker 1: from foreign exchange ray send credit did grow, but at

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Speaker 1: a rate around half what US banks saw in the period,

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Speaker 1: And right now we're watching shares of ubs fall there

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Speaker 1: down three point six percent. In Zurich, This is Bloomberg

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