WEBVTT - Nukesanity: Inside the Melt-up In Uranium ETFs 0:00:05.760 --> 0:00:15.320 Welcome to Trillions. I'm Joel Webber and I'm Eric bel Tunis. Okay, Eric, 0:00:15.400 --> 0:00:20.480 you made a call in January at Inside E t 0:00:20.680 --> 0:00:26.040 F S and we're gonna actually spend today's episode bringing 0:00:26.079 --> 0:00:28.440 the world up to speed on that call and everything 0:00:28.440 --> 0:00:31.240 that unfolded. What was your call, Well, it wasn't a 0:00:31.240 --> 0:00:34.920 call per per se. It was just a I was 0:00:34.960 --> 0:00:37.760 onto an et F. That's just really having quite the 0:00:37.800 --> 0:00:40.400 break up moment at Inside E t S, which is 0:00:40.400 --> 0:00:43.000 like the comic Con of ETFs. Every year they have 0:00:43.120 --> 0:00:46.120 this best New E t F competition with all the 0:00:46.200 --> 0:00:48.760 pundits from the industry arguing for what the best launch 0:00:49.000 --> 0:00:53.280 was of the year before. So in January I argued 0:00:53.320 --> 0:00:55.760 for u r n M, which is the North Shore 0:00:55.960 --> 0:00:58.400 Uranium Mining e t F and it just come out 0:00:58.400 --> 0:01:01.080 a month ago in December, and so nobody heard of it. 0:01:01.640 --> 0:01:04.360 And I had looked at your radium a couple of 0:01:04.360 --> 0:01:06.400 times in the ten years prior. There's a ticker called 0:01:06.400 --> 0:01:08.440 you are A which had been around and it's always bad. 0:01:08.880 --> 0:01:10.360 It would have a little head fake here and there, 0:01:10.400 --> 0:01:13.080 but just go down again. But this story stuck with me. 0:01:13.160 --> 0:01:15.039 There was a narrative there that I was like, there's 0:01:15.080 --> 0:01:18.479 something here. And so as I've seen more people talk 0:01:18.520 --> 0:01:21.160 about E. S G, it's really occurred to me that 0:01:21.400 --> 0:01:24.440 there's definitely an inconsistency between people wanting to keep up 0:01:24.440 --> 0:01:27.640 their lifestyles yet also wanting to fight climate change. And 0:01:28.280 --> 0:01:30.360 so I was making the case on stage that you 0:01:30.520 --> 0:01:33.720 R and M is a intriguing because it launched after 0:01:33.760 --> 0:01:36.919 a horrible back test. You never see that, and also 0:01:37.160 --> 0:01:40.480 that it was sort of like green investing for realists. Um, 0:01:40.520 --> 0:01:42.959 you know, you arguably are going to need to have 0:01:43.040 --> 0:01:46.400 nuclear if everybody can keep up what they're doing in 0:01:46.440 --> 0:01:49.320 their economies and yet you can fight climate change, you 0:01:49.400 --> 0:01:51.120 just really can't get it done with solar and wind. 0:01:51.200 --> 0:01:53.640 So that's the case I made. I didn't win. I 0:01:53.680 --> 0:01:55.880 probably came in third. It's based on like how loud 0:01:55.880 --> 0:01:59.400 the audience collapse, but I will say I won the 0:01:59.480 --> 0:02:03.120 perform since competition race by a mile. This thing is 0:02:03.200 --> 0:02:06.720 up two since then. It's up four d and twelve 0:02:07.440 --> 0:02:10.040 since March, which is a bottom for a lot of equity. 0:02:10.080 --> 0:02:12.840 T F. That's double arc and everybody thinks arcs like 0:02:12.880 --> 0:02:16.160 the best thing. That's double arc About four times the 0:02:16.240 --> 0:02:19.359 cueues and this year it's up a hundred pcent, which 0:02:19.440 --> 0:02:21.600 is by far the best performing equity e t F. 0:02:21.960 --> 0:02:25.079 The next best one is something like So this is 0:02:25.120 --> 0:02:27.799 a white hot area. And so I will take a 0:02:27.800 --> 0:02:30.840 little victory lap and say I was on to it early, 0:02:30.919 --> 0:02:34.600 not that I quote called it. Okay, thanks for that explanation. 0:02:34.720 --> 0:02:36.519 So if you haven't, if you haven't been able to 0:02:36.560 --> 0:02:39.480 gather that yet, we're gonna talk about uranium. Joining us 0:02:40.240 --> 0:02:43.079 is gonna be Tim Ratlo north Shore in Disease. He's 0:02:43.120 --> 0:02:45.760 the guy who actually came out with that uranium ETF. 0:02:46.120 --> 0:02:48.760 We're also going to be joined by Michael Alkin, the 0:02:48.840 --> 0:02:53.639 c i O of Sachem Cove Partners, and John Giampaglia, 0:02:54.200 --> 0:02:59.440 the CEO of Sprout Asset Management, this time on Trillions 0:02:59.800 --> 0:03:07.639 New in Sanity. Tim, Michael, John, welcome to Trillions. Thank 0:03:07.639 --> 0:03:11.200 you having us very much. Okay, So Tim, I want 0:03:11.200 --> 0:03:16.400 to start with you because uranium was your big idea. 0:03:16.919 --> 0:03:19.160 Why why did you get this idea? How did how 0:03:19.200 --> 0:03:21.200 did it hit you? Yeah, so I'll stop you there. 0:03:21.240 --> 0:03:23.480 I mean it was Mike's idea. Mike. Mike was the 0:03:23.520 --> 0:03:27.000 one who you know I met in seventeen and he 0:03:27.040 --> 0:03:30.760 had written this just incredibly sync white paper talking about 0:03:31.440 --> 0:03:34.680 I mean really what everybody is now talking about, UM, 0:03:34.920 --> 0:03:41.000 big supply deficit, uh, you know, multi year bearer market shrinking, 0:03:41.000 --> 0:03:45.040 equity market caps. And it just made so much sense. 0:03:45.520 --> 0:03:48.120 And I've always been attracted to deeply contrary and things, 0:03:48.120 --> 0:03:52.120 and that's that's gonna Mike spent. And fast forward to 0:03:53.880 --> 0:03:56.960 we had gotten involved in launching a hedge fund in 0:03:57.000 --> 0:04:00.400 the space and to invest in uranium, and it became 0:04:00.440 --> 0:04:03.040 apparent that there was this big four seller out there, 0:04:03.040 --> 0:04:05.800 which happened to be u are A because they changed 0:04:05.840 --> 0:04:08.720 their mandate. And I looked at it and just said, 0:04:10.040 --> 0:04:13.120 if this thesis is correct, there will need to be 0:04:13.600 --> 0:04:15.880 some pure playing mine e t F like there is 0:04:15.920 --> 0:04:19.040 for every other commodity, gold, silver, you know, and that 0:04:19.160 --> 0:04:21.600 even rare earth metals have had an et F that 0:04:21.720 --> 0:04:24.040 was more a pure play. And it just looked like 0:04:24.080 --> 0:04:26.880 a really interesting entry point. I knew nothing about E 0:04:26.920 --> 0:04:29.080 t S at that point. UM, so it kind of 0:04:29.120 --> 0:04:33.359 got up to speed and right time, right place launched 0:04:33.400 --> 0:04:35.800 it in ten and they were off of the races 0:04:35.839 --> 0:04:39.000 and the whole time Mike's thesis is playing out. And 0:04:39.040 --> 0:04:41.560 literally you can go back to Seen and look at videos, 0:04:42.240 --> 0:04:45.080 um that he did at conferences where he laid out 0:04:45.080 --> 0:04:48.039 the thesis, and I mean every single point, and I 0:04:48.080 --> 0:04:50.000 think you know, some of the E. S G stuff 0:04:50.600 --> 0:04:55.960 was there, but the extent to which the green and 0:04:56.040 --> 0:04:59.279 the nuclear revolution those are always kind of upside cases. 0:04:59.680 --> 0:05:01.840 But for the for the thesis to work, you never 0:05:01.880 --> 0:05:04.280 actually needed any of those things. That's just kind of 0:05:04.480 --> 0:05:06.920 icing on the cake at this point. Um. And it's 0:05:06.920 --> 0:05:10.440 been great to see this nuclear renaissance that were kind 0:05:10.440 --> 0:05:13.800 of in the midst of beginning. Okay, so Mike, Mike 0:05:13.839 --> 0:05:18.360 talked to us more about that that renaissance and also, um, 0:05:18.400 --> 0:05:21.120 what led you to to sort of recognize that this 0:05:21.200 --> 0:05:23.320 was going to be this opportunity And also I'm really curious, 0:05:23.640 --> 0:05:26.600 you know, why has this thing basically tracked with the 0:05:26.640 --> 0:05:30.760 pandemic right, like it's really popped during that time. Yeah, Joe, sure. 0:05:31.040 --> 0:05:34.560 So my whole career has been spent on in contrarian 0:05:34.800 --> 0:05:37.640 and looking for things that people are not interested in 0:05:37.720 --> 0:05:41.520 at the time. You tend to find recency biases, and 0:05:41.520 --> 0:05:45.560 and the longer the bear market, uh, the longer the 0:05:45.560 --> 0:05:47.480 you know, the recency bias, and the more they had 0:05:47.600 --> 0:05:50.359 an anchor to it, right, so in the case of 0:05:50.520 --> 0:05:53.000 nuclear power, we had looked at it in the past 0:05:53.040 --> 0:05:56.440 and twenty two thousand seven and had a big run 0:05:56.520 --> 0:05:59.840 two thousand and eleven after fu Kushima, but didn't we 0:05:59.839 --> 0:06:01.720 were working on other things that didn't have time to 0:06:01.720 --> 0:06:04.440 really die. End At two thousand and fifteen, though had 0:06:04.520 --> 0:06:07.200 looked at something where the market cap of the industry 0:06:07.240 --> 0:06:09.280 had gone from about a hundred and fifty billion down 0:06:09.320 --> 0:06:12.719 to about four billion, the number of companies had gone 0:06:12.760 --> 0:06:16.080 from maybe five hundred down to fifty, and so it 0:06:16.200 --> 0:06:18.720 was devastated. And so at that time we decided it 0:06:18.800 --> 0:06:22.080 was time to dig in and just understand what the 0:06:22.240 --> 0:06:24.560 role of nuclear power is because as all of us 0:06:24.680 --> 0:06:27.279 we see, uh you know, you talk about the greening 0:06:27.640 --> 0:06:31.240 of the carbonizing the world. That's not it's it's gaining 0:06:31.360 --> 0:06:35.240 great momentum now, but it's it's relatively new um. But 0:06:35.560 --> 0:06:37.400 even then it was starting to come around. But we 0:06:37.520 --> 0:06:39.600 know wind and solar. So what I wanted to do 0:06:39.760 --> 0:06:42.840 was understand better the role of nuclear power versus the 0:06:42.880 --> 0:06:46.440 alternatives that can help de carbonize the world. And what 0:06:46.600 --> 0:06:49.320 I realized after spending because at that time the cell 0:06:49.400 --> 0:06:51.960 side had disappeared. If you were a cell side Uranian analyists. 0:06:51.960 --> 0:06:55.120 You were likely fired when the commodities down, you're out 0:06:55.160 --> 0:06:58.880 of a job. And so there was really very little research. 0:06:58.960 --> 0:07:02.080 A couple of industry be forecasters that were around, but 0:07:02.520 --> 0:07:04.360 I said, let's take a fresh start at this. Is 0:07:04.400 --> 0:07:07.440 there a case for nuclear power? And when you dive 0:07:07.560 --> 0:07:10.160 in and nobody is paying attention and it's just sitting there, 0:07:10.240 --> 0:07:12.760 hiding in plain sight. When you realize is it's not 0:07:12.880 --> 0:07:17.000 a sexy growth business, but with draconian assumptions, it was 0:07:17.040 --> 0:07:20.640 the one percent growth business. And you realize that it's 0:07:20.680 --> 0:07:23.640 not a competitor to wind and solar, it's it's a 0:07:23.720 --> 0:07:26.120 compliment to wind and solar. It's baseload, it's a beast, 0:07:26.160 --> 0:07:28.600 it's always on. And then as you dive in further, 0:07:28.760 --> 0:07:31.040 you say, wait a second, on a per tero at 0:07:31.080 --> 0:07:33.840 hour of electricity generated, it's the safest form in the 0:07:33.920 --> 0:07:37.080 world of electricity generation, which most people would say, what 0:07:37.080 --> 0:07:39.640 are you talking about? Right, But math is math. Facts 0:07:39.680 --> 0:07:41.680 are facts. And then there's the one thing you have 0:07:41.800 --> 0:07:44.160 to try and understand is the waste. Right, we all 0:07:44.280 --> 0:07:48.880 hear on nuclear waste and again that's that's a bias 0:07:48.960 --> 0:07:50.800 that exists because at the end of the day, it's 0:07:50.840 --> 0:07:54.040 really the only contained waste. You know where it goes. 0:07:54.120 --> 0:07:56.280 It's it's a it's a cooling ponds for five years, 0:07:56.320 --> 0:08:00.080 and then it's in concrete steel reinforced casks sitting on 0:08:00.160 --> 0:08:02.640 the on their utility. So if you know where that 0:08:02.800 --> 0:08:07.160 stream is and and really uh, then looking at that 0:08:07.320 --> 0:08:10.960 saying okay, it's real nuclear power is here to can 0:08:11.040 --> 0:08:15.560 help decarbonize the world. Eventually, the economics have to sort 0:08:15.600 --> 0:08:18.720 themselves out. It's twelve percent of electricity generation in the world. 0:08:19.640 --> 0:08:22.520 And at the time, uh, the cost of your you know, 0:08:22.600 --> 0:08:25.119 the price of uranian was probably in the high teens, 0:08:25.160 --> 0:08:28.280 low twenties, and the marginal cost of production is close 0:08:28.320 --> 0:08:31.400 to fifty. And so I'm not the sharpest tool in 0:08:31.440 --> 0:08:33.160 the shed, but I know that you can't pull something 0:08:33.200 --> 0:08:35.040 out of the ground at fifty and sell it at eighteen. 0:08:35.080 --> 0:08:38.280 That doesn't work. So you need to have supplied discipline. 0:08:38.600 --> 0:08:41.040 And that was really the genesis of it. Now where 0:08:41.080 --> 0:08:44.319 people get confused is they look at the if you're 0:08:44.360 --> 0:08:46.480 in the US, you're in you're in Europe. It's not 0:08:46.600 --> 0:08:50.319 a growing industry here. It's it's a flat to slightly 0:08:50.360 --> 0:08:54.400 declining industry. But in in in the developing world. It's 0:08:54.440 --> 0:08:57.400 a it's a very rapidly growing industry. So you just 0:08:57.480 --> 0:09:01.760 have to be able to understand the differences. All right, Well, Mike, 0:09:01.840 --> 0:09:03.960 you just went over a lot um. There's a lot 0:09:04.040 --> 0:09:05.640 to unpack, and there's a couple of things you want 0:09:05.640 --> 0:09:08.080 to We're gonna come back to, which is the the waste, 0:09:08.640 --> 0:09:10.600 you know, and the sentiment of having a reactor near 0:09:10.640 --> 0:09:12.240 your house. I want to get to that later in 0:09:12.280 --> 0:09:14.679 the episode. I want to just keep it to the 0:09:14.920 --> 0:09:16.920 here and now with the with the funds though, and 0:09:17.040 --> 0:09:20.880 let's bring in John and talk sprout. So we've got 0:09:21.080 --> 0:09:23.079 the r U r N M and you are a 0:09:23.160 --> 0:09:26.280 which track equities in the US, then up in Canada, John, 0:09:26.400 --> 0:09:30.400 you have sprought physical Uranium Trust. Now this actually holds 0:09:31.160 --> 0:09:35.120 yellow powder right in warehouses around the world, like the 0:09:35.160 --> 0:09:39.120 way gold would would hold gold gold bars. And this 0:09:39.320 --> 0:09:42.520 fund has really um sort of come out of its 0:09:42.559 --> 0:09:44.840 shell held in the past couple of weeks. It's now 0:09:45.000 --> 0:09:49.120 I believe a billion holds million pounds of uranium and 0:09:49.200 --> 0:09:51.720 has become a big player in the market. And recently 0:09:51.800 --> 0:09:54.880 you had to go and ask for new shares to 0:09:55.080 --> 0:09:57.760 hit to feed the demand and that actually set up 0:09:57.760 --> 0:10:02.560 another catalyst event for the sector. So I guess could 0:10:02.600 --> 0:10:04.920 you talk about what you're seeing up there and how 0:10:05.000 --> 0:10:08.640 you got involved. Sure, thanks for having me on so UM. 0:10:08.720 --> 0:10:12.040 Sprout Asset Management is based in Toronto and we often 0:10:12.080 --> 0:10:14.240 think of it as being the mind finance capital of 0:10:14.280 --> 0:10:17.520 the world. So Sprout has a very long history with 0:10:17.679 --> 0:10:21.079 all things mining, and in the last uranium cycle that 0:10:21.160 --> 0:10:23.599 happened in the kind of the mid two thousand's, we 0:10:23.720 --> 0:10:27.480 were very active on the on the equity side, and 0:10:27.920 --> 0:10:31.520 uh we were also very involved with the the genesis 0:10:31.640 --> 0:10:36.280 of the preducessor vehicle, which was called Uranium Participation corps Um. 0:10:36.480 --> 0:10:39.040 It was launched in two thousand and five. It was 0:10:39.080 --> 0:10:42.439 a holding company structure on the Toronto Stock Exchange, and 0:10:42.840 --> 0:10:46.160 after a very long pursuit, we acquired that vehicle in 0:10:46.320 --> 0:10:50.560 July and we converted it from a holding company structure 0:10:50.640 --> 0:10:53.720 to a more traditional investment fund. So it's a closed 0:10:53.840 --> 0:10:56.240 end fund that trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange. It 0:10:56.320 --> 0:10:59.839 also trades on OTC pink sheets all right now, and 0:11:00.000 --> 0:11:02.160 and the reception we received with the fund has just 0:11:02.280 --> 0:11:05.160 been phenomenal. In the last couple of months, the trading 0:11:05.200 --> 0:11:08.800 volume is really picked up um the vehicle, as you said, 0:11:09.320 --> 0:11:13.079 almost five million physical pounds of you three O eight 0:11:13.400 --> 0:11:16.920 or known as better known as yellow cake UM. And 0:11:17.120 --> 0:11:20.840 in the last say six weeks, we've acquired over six 0:11:20.920 --> 0:11:24.319 million pounds UM as we've issued new shares in the trust, 0:11:24.559 --> 0:11:28.760 we've we've backed those with physical more physical uranium. Help 0:11:28.840 --> 0:11:32.120 me understand twenty five million pounds, let's add six to it, 0:11:32.320 --> 0:11:35.880 thirty one thirty one million pounds. What percentage of the 0:11:36.360 --> 0:11:39.719 uranium sitting out there is that we're Is there a 0:11:39.880 --> 0:11:43.080 better way to sort of put that into context? Sure? 0:11:43.160 --> 0:11:46.439 So we right now the trust owns about twenty five million. 0:11:46.559 --> 0:11:51.040 So when we acquired the company um IT, it had 0:11:51.120 --> 0:11:54.280 about eighteen and change million pounds. So we've been adding 0:11:54.400 --> 0:11:58.839 pretty consistently. So give you some perspective, because honestly, when 0:11:58.840 --> 0:12:01.280 I first quired the fun and try to put it 0:12:01.320 --> 0:12:03.720 into context in my head, it's it's pretty mind boggling 0:12:03.760 --> 0:12:07.199 the mount of uranium. So we could power the entire 0:12:07.400 --> 0:12:11.800 nuclear fleet in France, which produces of the country's power 0:12:11.960 --> 0:12:14.319 for one year with all of that material, just to 0:12:14.400 --> 0:12:16.280 give you a sense of how much uranium that is. 0:12:16.679 --> 0:12:19.600 So it's a huge quantity. It's it's stored at three 0:12:19.679 --> 0:12:22.839 different conversion facilities in the Western world. There's one in 0:12:22.880 --> 0:12:25.000 the US, one in Canada, and one in France. So 0:12:25.080 --> 0:12:28.360 that's where all these drums are are residing right now. 0:12:29.559 --> 0:12:32.600 And how did you break that news to your wife 0:12:32.679 --> 0:12:36.320 that you had just acquired twenty five million pounds of uranium? 0:12:36.480 --> 0:12:39.000 How did that go over? Well, she thinks I'm a 0:12:39.080 --> 0:12:41.520 total geek anyway, So that's just added to the uh, 0:12:42.000 --> 0:12:45.400 added to the legends. Okay, walk us through what it 0:12:45.480 --> 0:12:51.120 takes to actually like take possession of million pounds of uranium. Yeah, 0:12:51.240 --> 0:12:54.520 so we're customed to dealing with a lot of bulky commodities. 0:12:54.600 --> 0:12:57.640 We have a number of n YC listed tickers p 0:12:57.800 --> 0:13:00.480 h y S and PSLV, and so we're are custom 0:13:00.520 --> 0:13:02.720 to moving around large amounts of gold and large amounts 0:13:02.760 --> 0:13:07.640 of silver. Silver in particularly in particular, is very difficult 0:13:07.640 --> 0:13:09.800 to move around. But your aim is a whole other, 0:13:10.120 --> 0:13:15.200 obviously category. It is probably the most regulated and secure 0:13:15.280 --> 0:13:19.280 supply chain of anything in the world. As you could imagine, 0:13:19.440 --> 0:13:23.800 every single pound from mind to conversion facility to nuclear 0:13:23.840 --> 0:13:28.800 reactor is tracked so for obvious reasons. So, um, the 0:13:29.160 --> 0:13:31.000 you know, that that gives us a lot of comfort 0:13:31.040 --> 0:13:33.800 that the supply chain is very safe and um but 0:13:33.880 --> 0:13:36.040 a lot of this stuff it moves around on ships, 0:13:36.400 --> 0:13:40.240 it moves around on trucks, and it goes from just 0:13:40.400 --> 0:13:44.000 a few places in the world. The predominant producers are 0:13:44.200 --> 0:13:49.240 in Kazakhstan, Canada, Australia, and there's a number of minds 0:13:49.280 --> 0:13:53.760 in Africa. So it's a commodity that is concentrated in 0:13:53.880 --> 0:13:56.040 only a few parts of the world, which you know 0:13:56.120 --> 0:13:58.120 we make. We think that makes it more scarce and 0:13:58.200 --> 0:14:02.320 more susceptible to supply to disruptions. And do you think 0:14:02.400 --> 0:14:05.400 we will or could see one of these launch in 0:14:05.440 --> 0:14:08.120 the US, like a physically back uranium et F. I 0:14:08.120 --> 0:14:11.000 would I would think it would be that the iron 0:14:11.120 --> 0:14:14.360 is hot to file for one. So part of our 0:14:14.400 --> 0:14:18.880 reorganization plan for Uranium Participation Corps was a pledge that's 0:14:18.920 --> 0:14:22.360 brought would pursue a US listing and we're gonna start 0:14:22.440 --> 0:14:25.240 that work in the in the coming weeks. Uh. Nobody 0:14:25.320 --> 0:14:31.080 has ever successfully launched a physical uranium stockpiling fund in 0:14:31.120 --> 0:14:34.680 the in the US. Somebody tried once but was denied 0:14:34.760 --> 0:14:38.040 because it was more of a trading company. So we 0:14:38.240 --> 0:14:41.200 know we we have a long road ahead of us 0:14:41.240 --> 0:14:44.280 in terms of working with the regulator to get approval 0:14:44.360 --> 0:14:47.240 for the for the new vehicle. Um, it's something we've 0:14:47.320 --> 0:14:51.080 done many times in terms of UH securing sec approval 0:14:51.200 --> 0:14:53.880 for commodity stockpiling funds. We have a lot of experience 0:14:53.960 --> 0:14:55.640 with that and that's something we're gonna be working on. 0:14:56.120 --> 0:14:58.520 It is a novel listing, so we don't really know 0:14:58.640 --> 0:15:00.760 what we're gonna encounter until we we're right in the 0:15:00.880 --> 0:15:08.680 in the in the thick of it. The ticker that 0:15:08.800 --> 0:15:13.800 trades o t C is s r UUF. It looks 0:15:13.800 --> 0:15:15.280 like that's starting to make its way around the Wall 0:15:15.320 --> 0:15:18.640 Street bets crowd, the Reddit crowd. Why are they locking 0:15:18.720 --> 0:15:21.600 into this trade? Um? You know, is it just because 0:15:21.640 --> 0:15:23.880 it's a place to make money or is there some 0:15:24.080 --> 0:15:28.320 other populist motive they have? Well, you know, at the 0:15:28.360 --> 0:15:31.720 end of the day, it really is about the thesis, 0:15:32.200 --> 0:15:35.320 you know, underpinning the story. Um. You know, I'm not 0:15:35.400 --> 0:15:37.720 going to deny that there's probably some some short term 0:15:37.760 --> 0:15:40.240 money chasing this right now, but that's the way the 0:15:40.320 --> 0:15:43.960 market works. But I'm I've been amazed that the growing 0:15:44.040 --> 0:15:47.080 number of investors I've spoken to that have been in 0:15:47.120 --> 0:15:49.400 the trade for the last few years. And and just 0:15:49.560 --> 0:15:51.840 to step back a second, we've been working on this 0:15:51.920 --> 0:15:55.760 since So this isn't some some idea we just whipped 0:15:55.840 --> 0:15:58.880 up to capture some kind of you know, meme following. 0:15:59.560 --> 0:16:02.120 We've been on this for a long time because we 0:16:02.320 --> 0:16:05.560 we fundamentally thought like the market needed to reset. But 0:16:06.120 --> 0:16:08.680 in the last couple of months, I've noticed a much 0:16:08.840 --> 0:16:12.720 broadening of interest. Uh. In the early days, it was 0:16:12.920 --> 0:16:15.480 it was a very small group of specialty investors or 0:16:15.680 --> 0:16:19.040 contrarian investors or value investors. Now I'm seeing it broaden 0:16:19.120 --> 0:16:23.080 out to generalists. They're getting interested in the story. Um, 0:16:23.160 --> 0:16:25.760 and obviously we're seeing a lot more individual investors, which 0:16:26.080 --> 0:16:28.440 I think is great UM to to make the market 0:16:28.480 --> 0:16:32.480 more liquid and active and the sprout physically. Randium Trust 0:16:32.920 --> 0:16:34.920 is the largest vehicle of its kind in the world, 0:16:35.000 --> 0:16:37.760 and and that's drawing those investors to us on both 0:16:37.800 --> 0:16:41.320 the Toronto Stock Exchange and the OTC market. So, Mike, 0:16:41.360 --> 0:16:42.520 I want to bring it back to you because we're 0:16:42.560 --> 0:16:45.600 we've talked about the supply here. UM, there is a 0:16:45.720 --> 0:16:48.640 demand question, which is obviously you know, there there's a 0:16:48.720 --> 0:16:53.280 case for for more nuclear facilities, but you know, what's 0:16:53.320 --> 0:16:57.600 the what's the outlook like for more nuclear I mean 0:16:57.640 --> 0:17:00.840 you mentioned the emerging world. You know there's there's all 0:17:00.920 --> 0:17:03.120 kinds of policy implications, but like what are what are 0:17:03.120 --> 0:17:06.000 you seeing and what kind of timelines are these projects on. 0:17:06.840 --> 0:17:08.800 It's a great question, Joe. So if you think about 0:17:08.960 --> 0:17:11.239 both the supply and the demand side and uranium very 0:17:11.320 --> 0:17:14.640 long lived assets, it could take it. Take Cigar Lake 0:17:14.680 --> 0:17:16.760 at one of the biggest uranium minds in the world, 0:17:16.800 --> 0:17:19.560 owned by Chemico. It was a thirty plus year endeavor 0:17:19.760 --> 0:17:23.480 from finding it to bringing it, permitting it. Nobody wants 0:17:23.520 --> 0:17:26.040 one of these things in their backyard, right, so very 0:17:26.119 --> 0:17:28.200 long live and the same thing on the demand side, 0:17:28.240 --> 0:17:31.359 to to to to plan a reactor, to get the 0:17:31.400 --> 0:17:34.280 approvals to build it. You know, you're talking decades plus. 0:17:34.720 --> 0:17:36.359 So when you think of these things here we are, 0:17:37.040 --> 0:17:39.200 you look out to say, okay, what's twenty look like. 0:17:39.960 --> 0:17:44.080 And the World Nuclear Association, which does very holistic, bottoms 0:17:44.160 --> 0:17:47.840 up approach utility by utility to what demand look like. 0:17:48.000 --> 0:17:50.959 And in many years they're there, they've been quite dowering 0:17:51.000 --> 0:17:53.480 their outlook, but recently the last few years they've taken 0:17:53.520 --> 0:17:55.560 that outlook up and if you just look at their 0:17:55.640 --> 0:17:59.960 recently released demand report through you're looking at two points 0:18:00.040 --> 0:18:04.200 six percent per annum and growth UH in in demand 0:18:04.320 --> 0:18:07.840 for nuclear power. And that does not factor in what 0:18:08.440 --> 0:18:12.400 you can expect to see, which would be um life 0:18:12.440 --> 0:18:15.200 extensions out to eighty years for many of these reactors, 0:18:15.280 --> 0:18:19.280 which many of them can get. It doesn't includes small 0:18:19.400 --> 0:18:24.480 modular reactors which are easier, easier to build, more scalable. 0:18:25.160 --> 0:18:29.119 So you're seeing a nice growth profile UH and it 0:18:29.440 --> 0:18:31.760 doesn't take a big stretch with life extensions to push 0:18:31.840 --> 0:18:35.119 up towards that three percent per annum growth, which is 0:18:35.440 --> 0:18:39.000 a very reasonable growth number. Yeah. One one comment I 0:18:39.040 --> 0:18:41.240 would out about the wind and Star don't give you 0:18:41.240 --> 0:18:44.200 a couple of great ancdotes of recent So you look 0:18:44.240 --> 0:18:47.080 at the uk UM in the last year, wind speeds 0:18:47.119 --> 0:18:49.639 have been lower than average. You know that's just out 0:18:49.680 --> 0:18:51.280 of their control. So what are they what are they've 0:18:51.320 --> 0:18:53.359 had to do? Well, they had to fire up more 0:18:53.440 --> 0:18:56.760 natural gas plants, which then caused creates more carbon offsets 0:18:56.800 --> 0:18:59.520 that plants have to buy. And look look at last 0:18:59.560 --> 0:19:03.880 February when the winter storm hit Texas, when the turbines froze, 0:19:04.040 --> 0:19:06.359 natural gas wells froze. The whole system went down at 0:19:06.400 --> 0:19:09.720 a time when electricity demand spikes. So this whole narrative 0:19:09.760 --> 0:19:14.560 about reliable baseload power I think is very important for 0:19:14.760 --> 0:19:19.400 electrication of the grid um and also you know greenhouse 0:19:19.440 --> 0:19:22.720 gas reduction targets. Yeah. No. On on the supply side, 0:19:22.720 --> 0:19:24.800 I mean, I think when when I first looked at 0:19:24.880 --> 0:19:27.760 Mike's original thesis, what was so attractive is, as he 0:19:27.840 --> 0:19:31.840 pointed out, the thesis actually didn't require any nuclear demand growth. 0:19:32.040 --> 0:19:34.959 You could write to zero. The issue is a supply 0:19:35.119 --> 0:19:38.280 issue and a marginal cost production issue, and that you 0:19:38.400 --> 0:19:40.720 need prices that are higher. And I think that's what 0:19:40.880 --> 0:19:44.320 you've why the price and the and the equities have 0:19:44.520 --> 0:19:48.000 been rallying so much recently, is up until now, the 0:19:48.119 --> 0:19:50.320 demand story is is kind of there, and you've had 0:19:50.320 --> 0:19:54.200 all these right sale kickers. What's been the issue is 0:19:54.240 --> 0:19:56.840 there's been there's a supply denks at this form, you 0:19:56.880 --> 0:19:58.560 don't actually have enough your anemy in the world to 0:19:58.640 --> 0:20:01.440 power all these nuclear reactors. So just the demand growth 0:20:01.520 --> 0:20:04.399 that we're seeing now is just exacerbating that supply deficit. 0:20:04.920 --> 0:20:07.440 And and so you need that you need those higher 0:20:07.520 --> 0:20:11.640 prices in order to incent new mind production to fill 0:20:12.200 --> 0:20:15.200 that deficit. So let me jump in here with that 0:20:15.600 --> 0:20:17.840 because I get this question on Twitter a lot. Does 0:20:17.960 --> 0:20:20.000 this have room to run? And so if there's two 0:20:20.119 --> 0:20:23.920 issues going on here, one is there was a supply problem, Well, 0:20:24.160 --> 0:20:26.159 now you are a is up. I'm going to use 0:20:26.160 --> 0:20:27.920 you are a in this example, sorry Tim, because it's 0:20:27.920 --> 0:20:31.160 been around for like twelve years, you are a since 0:20:31.240 --> 0:20:36.840 inception or since Fukushima is down still even with that 0:20:37.000 --> 0:20:41.560 massive pop. So the chart looks like a big move 0:20:41.640 --> 0:20:44.200 down and then a little a little like little dipper 0:20:44.280 --> 0:20:48.080 up hasn't come up to where it was. How far 0:20:48.240 --> 0:20:52.119 does have to run just on this supply issue? Pretend 0:20:52.160 --> 0:20:55.439 there's no demand for nuclear is green energy? What's your 0:20:55.560 --> 0:20:58.200 estimate on that room to run on just the supply story? 0:20:58.680 --> 0:21:01.320 So it depends on you know, everyone likes to talk 0:21:01.359 --> 0:21:03.920 about where does the market balance? Right, so what's some 0:21:04.000 --> 0:21:08.280 marginal cost of production? And uh And the reality is 0:21:08.320 --> 0:21:10.480 if you look at the four uranium cycles, it doesn't 0:21:10.520 --> 0:21:13.359 work that way, right. It's it's a it's a commodity 0:21:13.480 --> 0:21:15.200 where when when the price is down To give you 0:21:15.200 --> 0:21:19.080 a little perspective, before the last cycle that really started 0:21:19.119 --> 0:21:21.439 moving in November of two thousand when it bottomed out 0:21:21.440 --> 0:21:24.920 at seven dollars. In those dollars um UH for the 0:21:25.040 --> 0:21:29.159 prior several years it had the utilities which are the 0:21:29.800 --> 0:21:34.960 by the vast majority of uranium UM. They because it's 0:21:35.000 --> 0:21:37.639 long lived assets, its long life minds. Typically the end 0:21:37.720 --> 0:21:41.880 is most uranium has purchased under long term contracts seven, eight, nine, 0:21:41.920 --> 0:21:45.639 ten years and longer um. During the last bottom, when 0:21:45.840 --> 0:21:50.239 prices were had bottomed out in the high single digits UM, 0:21:50.560 --> 0:21:54.040 they were contracting it about a third of their consumption 0:21:54.200 --> 0:21:58.439