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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 2: All the work, all the talk, all the handicapping is done.

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Speaker 3: It's time for history. They're all in line, We're ready

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Speaker 3: for the stars.

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Speaker 2: They're off in the Kentucky Derby Rank up another two

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Speaker 2: links four back to win wind on the turn to

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Speaker 2: getting the pickup drive near the back.

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Speaker 3: Of the pack. As the field turns for home, Hendy

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Speaker 3: first on and opening on the outside. It's trying first drive.

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Speaker 2: As they come to the final drolong kick meedling on.

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Speaker 3: What's droven on to the line? What a possible result here?

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Speaker 2: Welsh Entuckyday. Hello, welcome to the Action Work Podcast Kentucky

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Speaker 2: Derby Betting Preview. I'm your host Shan Zerrilla, joined today

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Speaker 2: by horse racing expert Action contributor Michael Conti to break

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Speaker 2: down the first leg of the Triple Crown Race fall

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Speaker 2: on Saturday at Churchill Down six fifty seven pm post

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Speaker 2: time and fifty first rump the roses. Mike and I

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Speaker 2: are going to take you through the field, give you

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Speaker 2: our top win contenders, our favorite long shots, help you

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Speaker 2: build out some exotic tickets. You're exactly as trifectas super

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Speaker 2: effectas for Derby time on Saturday, and also back up

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Speaker 2: talk about some of the undercard races and the Kentucky

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Speaker 2: Oaks on Friday as well.

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Speaker 1: So with that, Mike, welcome back to the show. Always

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Speaker 1: good to see you.

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Speaker 2: Wanted to get your thoughts overall, just from a big

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Speaker 2: picture perspective, how does this three year old male field

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Speaker 2: compare to past years? It seems like there's about eleven

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Speaker 2: horses who have a buyer speed score above ninety six

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Speaker 2: or ninety six or above, whereas last year I think

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Speaker 2: there were only three or four three to five. And

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Speaker 2: then additionally, it seems like there's much more pace in

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Speaker 2: this year's race. Six to eight horses who may want

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Speaker 2: to be on or near the lead may end up

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Speaker 2: being fewer than that by the time the race actually

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Speaker 2: gets run. But there's been years in the past where

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Speaker 2: we've been scrambling to find any horse who may be

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Speaker 2: viable to take the lead. This year, it seems like

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Speaker 2: there's at least three to four who definitely will, and

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Speaker 2: potentially even more beyond that. So take those in whatever

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Speaker 2: order you'd like. Quality of the field and then relative

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Speaker 2: speed of this field prepared to friarers well.

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Speaker 4: First, great to be back, Sean, thanks for having me first,

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Speaker 4: quality of the field. I think one of the most

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Speaker 4: exciting things this year is that there is I don't

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Speaker 4: believe a true standout.

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Speaker 3: Some might argue against this.

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Speaker 2: But I don't believe that there's a true standout in

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Speaker 2: this field, and I think that we've got a deep field,

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Speaker 2: which from a betting perspective makes it really exciting.

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Speaker 4: You know, you mentioned obviously buyer speed figures. I think

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Speaker 4: we're seeing, you know, really good quality horses this year.

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Speaker 4: From a pace perspective, again, I don't think there's a

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Speaker 4: whole lot of question if there's going to be paced.

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Speaker 4: It's more of who the pace is going to be,

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Speaker 4: which I think is going to make for a very

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Speaker 4: interesting race setup as we get into the discussion today,

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Speaker 4: which again from a betting perspective and just from a

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Speaker 4: fan perspective, makes the Kentucky Derby that much more exciting

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Speaker 4: when there's a potential to have like two packs of

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Speaker 4: horses right the early speed and then the late speed

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Speaker 4: lagging back a little bit is going to.

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Speaker 3: Make for a really exciting thing.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna begin by cutting the field in half if

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Speaker 2: we can, limiting the selections that we're going to use

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Speaker 2: underneath on exotic tickets. Now, this may be some true cuts,

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Speaker 2: horses that we think of no shot to hit the board,

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Speaker 2: or in my case, I might throw out a couple

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Speaker 2: of horses that I think are just overvalued based on

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Speaker 2: their morning line odds. So let's start with the true cuts,

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Speaker 2: the horses that we think have virtually no shot to

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Speaker 2: even hit the board.

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Speaker 1: In that group, I might put the number.

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Speaker 2: One the two year old Champion Citizen Bowl, the number

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Speaker 2: two Neo Equos to number five American Promise. I do

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Speaker 2: not like the number fourteen Tis Tactics, he's been very

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Speaker 2: lazy working this week leading up to the race. To

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Speaker 2: number fifteen Render Judgment, the number sixteen Coal Battle, and

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Speaker 2: the number twenty Zho in Almighty. Those are all cuts

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Speaker 2: for me horses I do not think I have a

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Speaker 2: chance to hit the board Kanti. From that group of

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Speaker 2: horses I just listed any strongly disagree with. The one

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Speaker 2: that I would strongly disagree with is the two Neil

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Speaker 2: Quis you know the horse again talking about the pay scenario,

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Speaker 2: sean going to be more forwardly placed. You get arguably

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Speaker 2: the best jockey in the world in Flavian Pratt, and

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Speaker 2: I'm sure we'll talk about this. The only thing that

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Speaker 2: I would say for everybody to be aware of is

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Speaker 2: that Flavian has already said that if the twenty one

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Speaker 2: Baeza draws into the field, he's going to that horse.

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Speaker 2: So what does that tell you about his confidence level

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Speaker 2: on number two neo Quis. But again, a horse that

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Speaker 2: I do like to think about in exotics that I

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Speaker 2: wouldn't immediately toss from the group of horses that you're

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Speaker 2: about to toss out that you do not think I

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Speaker 2: have a shot of hitting the board. The only one

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Speaker 2: I'm going to disagree with is the number nineteen chunk

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Speaker 2: of gold. He's one that I'm likely tossing, or I

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Speaker 2: should say, the horses that you're gonna do later on

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Speaker 2: that you like underneath. The only one I disagree with

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Speaker 2: is the number nineteen trunk of Gold. He's one that

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Speaker 2: I'm probably gonna consider tossing. You can debate that later on.

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Speaker 2: You're welcome to. But two other horses I want to

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Speaker 2: get to who I'm throwing out based on odds at

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Speaker 2: the current moment, two of the shorter price horses Sandman

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Speaker 2: at six to one, he's the number seventeen, and then

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Speaker 2: the number eighteen sovereignty at five to one, are you

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Speaker 2: using those horses number one? And if you are using

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Speaker 2: them or if you're not using them, do you consider

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Speaker 2: them fairly priced the current ods or overvalue to current ods? Yeah,

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Speaker 2: I'm using both of them underneath an exotic way during

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Speaker 2: I don't know as though that I love either of

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Speaker 2: them for wind contenders. I will say in full transparency,

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Speaker 2: coming out of the Southwest Stakes, I actually thought that

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Speaker 2: Sandman was going to be my Derby horse. I will say,

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Speaker 2: I don't love the late closer, but you think about it.

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Speaker 2: Rich Strike was a late closer in twenty twenty two

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Speaker 2: last year. You know, we obviously had that duel down

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Speaker 2: the stretch between the three of them, and we saw

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Speaker 2: what Sierra Leone turned into later in the three year

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Speaker 2: old season, So you know, can Sandman work out a trip?

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Speaker 3: Maybe I agree with you.

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Speaker 4: I do think that there's overvalue right now at six

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Speaker 4: to one on the morning line, but I will be

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Speaker 4: including him.

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Speaker 2: So let's get to the other horses you're considering tossing here.

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Speaker 2: I know we have agreement on a couple, but there

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Speaker 2: were a few that are on your lists that are

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Speaker 2: not in mind. So go ahead and list those out

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Speaker 2: right now.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, look for starters.

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Speaker 4: The first horse that I'm just tossing, and I'll explain

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Speaker 4: why in a second, is publisher Steve Asmussen has never

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Speaker 4: won the Derby. He's obviously an amazing trainer. He's a

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Speaker 4: Hall of Famer. So you can't knock a Steve Asmussen horse.

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Speaker 4: What I really don't like, and it's crazy to say,

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Speaker 4: is Irad is on.

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Speaker 2: This horse doesn't ride for ass musen a ton Most importantly,

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Speaker 2: this horse is a maiden sewn.

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Speaker 3: He's never won a race in his life.

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Speaker 2: You want to come into the biggest race, the deepest

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Speaker 2: field that he's ever going to run in, a twenty

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Speaker 2: horse field, and all of a sudden break your maiden.

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Speaker 2: It's legitimately never happened in the history of the Kentucky Derby.

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Speaker 3: Automatic toss from my end.

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Speaker 2: You know other horses that I'm tossing Flying Mohawk East Avenue,

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Speaker 2: which I know we'll talk about when the past scenario

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Speaker 2: comes up. Oh and Almighty Render Judgment, Citizen Bull and

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Speaker 2: Admired Daytona is the other one that I will also

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Speaker 2: be tossing. Let's talk about a Meyer Daytona real quick,

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Speaker 2: because you're gonna have a win contender, a top win

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Speaker 2: contender that is not a little bit you know of

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Speaker 2: off the board. But there's two horses that I consider

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Speaker 2: severe wild cards in here, one that we'll get to

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Speaker 2: a little bit. The other is the number six, Admire Daytona.

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Speaker 2: Both of these horses coming over from Japan. Admyre Daytona.

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Speaker 2: Was it Meyer Daytona and the UA Derby was that?

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Speaker 3: What's fa? Yes?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So Admire Daytona coming off of a win in

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Speaker 2: the UA Derby, got the rail, got the lead. It

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Speaker 2: seems like his trainers planning on rating him a little

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Speaker 2: bit more here, not sending him to the lead, you know,

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Speaker 2: maybe hoping there's a hot pace in front of him

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Speaker 2: and being a little bit more tactical and then trying

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Speaker 2: to run that group down. So you're against Admire Daytona.

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Speaker 2: I've heard other people say, you know, compared to prior years,

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Speaker 2: Mara Daytona seems like, you know, a lesser talented horse,

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Speaker 2: ran lesser races compared to Forever Young.

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Speaker 1: You know that we saw last year finished third in

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Speaker 1: the Derby.

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Speaker 2: So you kind of agree with that assessment, like this

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Speaker 2: is just not the caliber of Japanese horse we've seen

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Speaker 2: come over in recent years. I totally agree, and I

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Speaker 2: think you know that UA Derby. I don't really know

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Speaker 2: what he was running against in that race. What I

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Speaker 2: will say is he was down on the rail. It

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Speaker 2: looked like, you know, coming off the turn, he was

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Speaker 2: going to get passed by two maybe three horses.

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Speaker 3: The horse seemed to re rally.

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Speaker 4: He didn't like to get passed, which is something that

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Speaker 4: you love to see in the Derby. The question is,

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Speaker 4: is you know, to your point, if they're going to

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Speaker 4: rake this horse a little bit more, then what is

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Speaker 4: he going to look like? I watched, you know, most

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Speaker 4: of admired Daytona's races. I just didn't love anything about him,

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Speaker 4: didn't love the stride. Again, he didn't get passed in

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Speaker 4: that UA Derby nine horse field. I don't really know

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Speaker 4: what he was facing, so to me, it's just a toss.

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Speaker 2: So those are the horses we're probably not using on

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Speaker 2: our tickets. Let's turn our attention to our top win

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Speaker 2: contenders and then we're going to get to our favorite

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Speaker 2: long shots. But with that, I want to set up

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Speaker 2: the pace scenario for this race. As Mike alluded to,

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Speaker 2: as we alluded to earlier a lot of potential early speed.

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Speaker 2: The current pace projection has the number twelve East Avenue

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Speaker 2: on the lead at the half mile call, the number

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Speaker 2: two Neo Equos, the number twenty oh to Almighty tucked

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Speaker 2: in just behind him, and then the number one Citizen Bowl,

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Speaker 2: the number four Rodriguez and then number five American Promise.

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Speaker 2: They have just behind those two horses, with the ten

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Speaker 2: Grande and the sixteen coal Battle just behind them. Then

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Speaker 2: there's sort of a break to the middle and the

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Speaker 2: back of the pack. Your two deepest closers are going

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Speaker 2: to be the number three Final Gamut and the number

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Speaker 2: eighteen Sovereignty. Churchill Downs tends to favor speed, it has

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Speaker 2: been favoring speed of late. You generally want to be

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Speaker 2: forward to ly placed in this race in a big field.

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Speaker 2: It also helps you avoid traffic. You know, the further

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Speaker 2: you are near the leader, the less horses in front

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Speaker 2: of you, the less kickback you're going to get, but

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Speaker 2: also the less traffic you have to navigate, and the

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Speaker 2: higher odds of actually just avoiding trouble, you know, in

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Speaker 2: the stretch run. That said, if there's a lot of pace,

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Speaker 2: it does set up for the closers and it does

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Speaker 2: seem like this could be a potential year where a

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Speaker 2: closer can come and run the field down like rech

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Speaker 2: Strectd a couple of years ago. So Kanti turning to

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Speaker 2: your top win contender. As we just mentioned the two

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Speaker 2: horses coming over talking about the pace projection, we do

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Speaker 2: not have pace projection data for the number six Admire

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Speaker 2: Daytona or the number seven Luxer Cafe. Who's going to

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Speaker 2: be your top pick at fifteen to one. So all

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Speaker 2: of that is to say, where do you see it

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Speaker 2: or where do you see Luxer Cafe in the early running?

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Speaker 2: What flight is he going to be more midpack? Is

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Speaker 2: he going to be behind that you know, second third

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Speaker 2: flight of fast horses or do you see him sitting

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Speaker 2: a little bit deeper along with the closers?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think first and foremost Seawan on the on

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Speaker 4: the pace scenario, unless the twelve East Avenue does not

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Speaker 4: break East Avenue should be on the lead. This horse

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Speaker 4: is one track mind, you know, one trip pony if

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Speaker 4: you will, He's going to the lead. That's all there

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Speaker 4: is to it. He has tremendous amounts of early pace,

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Speaker 4: which you know. Then the question is is like who

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Speaker 4: else is going to go with him. Obviously you highlighted

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Speaker 4: some of those horses for my top pick. As you

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Speaker 4: mentioned Luxar Cafe, the seven. I think that he's going

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Speaker 4: to be sitting in like a stalking trip, maybe towards

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Speaker 4: the back end of that top flight, maybe the first

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Speaker 4: end of that second flight, if you will. He's a

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Speaker 4: horse who.

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Speaker 2: Does not like to be far back, but has a

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Speaker 2: nice middle and late move and again doesn't like to

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Speaker 2: get past late, you know. So I really do think

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Speaker 2: that this could be the year that we see one

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Speaker 2: of these horses from overseas ship in come in and

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Speaker 2: win the derby a pretty sizable price. And I would

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Speaker 2: say also arguably, you know, I would say Flaving Pratt's

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Speaker 2: probably the best jockey in the world right now. But

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Speaker 2: the jockey on lux Or Cafe right up there, and

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Speaker 2: and you know, lux Or Cafe hasn't really done much

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Speaker 2: wrong in his career. I mean, he's got four wins

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Speaker 2: from six starts and four straight wins, so, you know, again,

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Speaker 2: and I think it's important to note, you know, whether

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Speaker 2: still somewhat up in the air of what it's going

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Speaker 2: to look like on Friday and Saturday, he's run over,

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Speaker 2: you know, good and some moisture in the track, which

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Speaker 2: I think will significantly benefit him in this And I

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Speaker 2: think it's really important to note as well shown he's

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Speaker 2: sired by American Pharaoh. For those of us that watch

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Speaker 2: horse racing or even bet on the Kentucky Derby, American

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Speaker 2: Pharaoh was the one who broke the Triple Crown streak

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Speaker 2: a few years back now, obviously, but a progeny of

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Speaker 2: American Pharaoh should have no problem getting the distance.

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Speaker 4: He's run mile in an eighth before. I don't think

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Speaker 4: the extra eighth of a mile is going to be

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Speaker 4: an issue for luxor Cafe.

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Speaker 3: In this spot.

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Speaker 2: I want to talk about the favorite, the number eight Journalism,

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Speaker 2: who I do make the likeliest winner in this race.

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Speaker 2: He's not necessarily my favorite horse at odds at their

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Speaker 2: current morning line odds, but he will be on all

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Speaker 2: of my horizontal tickets. I'm curious if he will be

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Speaker 2: on yours two Just to tease your exact as and

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Speaker 2: trifectas later on, you have pair Journalism with Burnham Square

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Speaker 2: or with Lexer Cafe on a number of those tickets,

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Speaker 2: so I'm assuming he will be on your horizontal wagers.

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Speaker 2: My concern here is the jockey the jockey trainer combination,

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Speaker 2: not necessarily you know, the highest caliber of duo and berdovers.

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Speaker 2: Folly got stuck in behind traffic pinned in by Bob

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Speaker 2: Baffort's horses in the Santa Nita Derby, but this horse

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Speaker 2: is so good it was able to overcome that trouble

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Speaker 2: end up winning the race. It has the two highest

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Speaker 2: buyer speed figures in the field one aweight in the

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Speaker 2: one oweight in the San Felipe one O two in

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Speaker 2: the Santinneado Derby. The one aweight figure is the third

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Speaker 2: highest entering the field for any horse in the past

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Speaker 2: ten years. Fierceness had one ten last year, Materiality had

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Speaker 2: a one ten in twenty fifteen. And it's also, as

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Speaker 2: I said, the two highest in the field. Nobody else

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Speaker 2: aside from Baiaza is over one hundred, and that is

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Speaker 2: worth mentioning as well because the number twenty one Biaza

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Speaker 2: I do think is the biggest threat to journalism. If

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Speaker 2: he draws into the field, he's going to need a

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Speaker 2: scratch before Saturday in order to get in. Trained by

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Speaker 2: John Sheriffs. As you mentioned, Mike Flavian Pratt going to

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Speaker 2: switch off of the number two two Bayeza. If he

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Speaker 2: ends up drawing in coming from the far outside post,

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Speaker 2: don't necessarily love the positioning for him, but probably the

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Speaker 2: second best, second fastest horse in this field based off

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Speaker 2: of prior speed figures. Just not sure if he's going

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Speaker 2: to be in the race or not. So that's that's

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Speaker 2: a humongous wild card whether Biaza draws in or not.

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Speaker 2: The horse I like best current odds is the number

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Speaker 2: twelve or sorry, the number nine Burnham Square. So this

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Speaker 2: has been the buzz horse in workouts throughout this week.

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Speaker 2: That's not to say that journalism hasn't gotten the glowing

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Speaker 2: reports as well. But of all the horses in the Derby,

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Speaker 2: we'll get to an Oak's horse later, that's been very buzzy.

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Speaker 2: If all the horses in the Derby, Burnham Square has

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Speaker 2: looked the best in training this week. Came around five

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Speaker 2: winded the turn of the Bluegrass. I thought that replay

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Speaker 2: was super impressive. At the turn, it looked like he

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Speaker 2: was going to lose the race. He actually like lost

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Speaker 2: a little ground, you know, even as they swung off

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Speaker 2: the turn, it seemed like he was falling back, and

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Speaker 2: then he just powered past that whole field and took

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Speaker 2: the thing down. Others have said they didn't like that

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Speaker 2: race because of how he looked in it. You know,

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Speaker 2: his Holy Ball two back was ultra impressive as well.

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Speaker 2: I just think this is a horse that's going to

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Speaker 2: continue improving, and the reports I've gotten this week about

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Speaker 2: how he's running around Churchill Downs seem to indicate that

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Speaker 2: that's the case. So Burnham Square will be a win

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Speaker 2: contender for me across all tickets. Gonna be using the

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Speaker 2: number eight Journalism and if Iza draws in, I'll be

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Speaker 2: using the number twenty one as well as Sakanti. I

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Speaker 2: want to back up, are you going to be using

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Speaker 2: Journalism on all horizontal tickets in addition to your vertical tickets?

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Speaker 2: And are there any other top win contenders you'll be

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Speaker 2: using on those tickets as well?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: I mean, look, I think that Journalism arguably is the

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Speaker 4: most talented horse in this field. You touched on it.

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Speaker 4: I'm a huge umberto Rispoli fan. You know, he does

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Speaker 4: very well out on the West Coast.

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Speaker 2: This is a whole different ballgame, right You've got some

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Speaker 2: of the obviously best horses in the world, best three

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Speaker 2: year olds in training right now, in this race.

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Speaker 4: You know you've got a twenty horse field. You know,

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Speaker 4: Mike McCarthy hasn't won the Derby before. Journalism is bred

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Speaker 4: top and bottom to get this distance. He's by Kurlin

344
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Speaker 4: out of an uncle Moe Damn. So you know, obviously

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Speaker 4: he can get the distance. Here's what I don't like

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Speaker 4: about Journalism. There's a couple of things here. I'm not

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Speaker 4: going to allow him to beat me. I will reiterate that.

348
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Speaker 4: But what I don't like about Journalism is that in

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Speaker 4: his last three starts he's beaten a combined twelve horses.

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Speaker 4: He's going to need to beat nineteen horses come Saturday.

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Speaker 4: And he finds trouble. You can't find trouble in the derby.

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Speaker 4: I understand he was boxed in in the Santa Anita Derby.

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Speaker 4: There was some race riding involved in there. You can't

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Speaker 4: find trouble though, and you can't navigate that in a

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Speaker 4: horse or in a race excuse me, with nineteen other horses.

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Speaker 4: And so while I think that yes, he's been training well,

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Speaker 4: he looks fantastic on the track. He's bred for it. Obviously,

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Speaker 4: as you mentioned, is buyer speed figures make him a standout.

359
00:16:29,360 --> 00:16:32,000
Speaker 4: But again, he's beaten twelve horses in the last three

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Speaker 4: starts and he's found trouble. You can't do that in

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Speaker 4: this race, which is why I'm looking elsewhere for my

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00:16:38,120 --> 00:16:41,440
Speaker 4: top win contender. But I'm not going to allow journalism

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Speaker 4: to beat me in either vertical or horizontal wager.

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Speaker 1: What are you gonna do with BIAZEFI draws in you

365
00:16:47,520 --> 00:16:48,080
Speaker 1: have to use.

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Speaker 4: I agree, I agree with you. I was talking to

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Speaker 4: a friend about this. Baeza to me somewhat screams made

368
00:16:54,960 --> 00:16:58,280
Speaker 4: from a few years ago, right, a more lightly raced

369
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Speaker 4: horse coming into this race. You know, was a big

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Speaker 4: price in that Santa Anita Derby, partially because of journalism

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Speaker 4: being in that race. But Baday's only broke is made

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Speaker 4: in two starts back right in February at Santa Anita

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Speaker 4: and the fact that Flavian Pratt has already said that

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Speaker 4: he's going there over the two.

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Speaker 3: Uh. You know, I if Bideza does drawing, I think

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Speaker 3: you have to.

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Speaker 4: Use Flavian pat Pratt's record at the Derby is pretty outstanding,

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Speaker 4: Like he basically doesn't miss the board. I think he's

379
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Speaker 4: missed the board one time on a Derby mount and

380
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Speaker 4: so I very much consider him live if he's able

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Speaker 4: to draw in.

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00:17:34,000 --> 00:17:37,280
Speaker 2: Let's talk about our favorite longer shot selections horses that

383
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Speaker 2: we're gonna like underneath on exotic tickets. One that we

384
00:17:40,359 --> 00:17:42,840
Speaker 2: seem to agree on is the number three Final Gambit.

385
00:17:42,960 --> 00:17:46,040
Speaker 2: He's also been triggering taking to the Churchill Downs track

386
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Speaker 2: really well this week, and that is super important because

387
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Speaker 2: this is a synthetic specialist horse who it's a mystery

388
00:17:51,720 --> 00:17:53,760
Speaker 2: how he was going to look on this track, but

389
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Speaker 2: he had a humongous final workout. Uh, the distance should

390
00:17:57,359 --> 00:17:59,920
Speaker 2: not be a problem for him. I think he should

391
00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:02,879
Speaker 2: could ultimately be in the mix at the end, whether

392
00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:04,399
Speaker 2: traffic is going to be an issue or not. But

393
00:18:04,480 --> 00:18:05,919
Speaker 2: he should be a deep closer. I think I'll have

394
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Speaker 2: the pace to run into I like Final Gambit to

395
00:18:08,760 --> 00:18:11,560
Speaker 2: hit the board potentially at long odds. I'll certainly be

396
00:18:11,640 --> 00:18:14,159
Speaker 2: using him underneath on all my tickets. And then the

397
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Speaker 2: other one I want to mention, I'll let you talk

398
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Speaker 2: about Rodriguez Mike specifically in addition to these guys. But Rodriguez,

399
00:18:20,080 --> 00:18:22,399
Speaker 2: I'm sure you have more detail on than mine as

400
00:18:22,400 --> 00:18:23,840
Speaker 2: to why you might like him. I'm a little bit

401
00:18:23,880 --> 00:18:26,800
Speaker 2: lower on Rodriguez to number ten Grande. I think is

402
00:18:26,840 --> 00:18:28,800
Speaker 2: a super key player in this race as well. Trained

403
00:18:28,800 --> 00:18:32,080
Speaker 2: by Todd Pletcher three lifetime starts. I believe he scored

404
00:18:32,080 --> 00:18:34,439
Speaker 2: a ninety seven buyer in his last race. This is

405
00:18:34,480 --> 00:18:36,640
Speaker 2: the fourth start of his horm cycle. He didn't start

406
00:18:36,720 --> 00:18:38,800
Speaker 2: racing until his three year old season, just got on

407
00:18:38,840 --> 00:18:42,560
Speaker 2: the track in January. But this horse keeps improving. Todd

408
00:18:42,560 --> 00:18:45,119
Speaker 2: Pletcher two for sixty five in the Derby, so not

409
00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:47,600
Speaker 2: a lot of success there. Maybe this horse is potentially

410
00:18:47,600 --> 00:18:50,360
Speaker 2: setting up for a run in the Belmont six weeks

411
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Speaker 2: from now.

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Speaker 1: But what do you think about?

413
00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:53,879
Speaker 2: Obviously the number three final game, but I know you

414
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Speaker 2: like I know you're interested in the number ten Grande.

415
00:18:56,320 --> 00:18:57,320
Speaker 1: How do you view those two?

416
00:18:57,600 --> 00:18:59,280
Speaker 2: I know you like the number four Rodriguez and then

417
00:18:59,320 --> 00:19:01,720
Speaker 2: any other horse you're gonna be king on in long

418
00:19:01,760 --> 00:19:02,880
Speaker 2: shot exotics underneath.

419
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Speaker 4: Yeah, so I think you know final gambit. I think

420
00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:08,600
Speaker 4: the interesting thing is, yes, horse has you know, performed

421
00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:11,159
Speaker 4: well on the synthetic and also has a start on

422
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Speaker 4: turf as well.

423
00:19:12,119 --> 00:19:14,879
Speaker 3: This will be the horse's first dirt start.

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Speaker 4: That being said, I believe it's six of the last

425
00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:21,560
Speaker 4: twenty five horses that came out of the Jeff Ruby

426
00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:24,760
Speaker 4: stakes have hit the board in the Kentucky Derby. It's

427
00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:28,520
Speaker 4: only produced three Kentucky Derby winners, but still there's something

428
00:19:28,560 --> 00:19:29,399
Speaker 4: to be said for that.

429
00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:33,920
Speaker 2: He's been able to, you know, navigate traffic and navigate

430
00:19:33,960 --> 00:19:38,119
Speaker 2: some troubled trips. He's run against twelve horse fields before,

431
00:19:38,160 --> 00:19:40,240
Speaker 2: which is not you know, a twenty horse field in

432
00:19:40,280 --> 00:19:43,399
Speaker 2: the Derby, but still a pretty deep field and just

433
00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:45,719
Speaker 2: one that I think you've got to use at a

434
00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:51,040
Speaker 2: big price, especially in your horizontal exotics trainer, Brad Cox.

435
00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:54,040
Speaker 2: He's won the Derby before, you know, no surprise there,

436
00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:57,480
Speaker 2: so I do like him as a nice long shot

437
00:19:57,560 --> 00:20:01,359
Speaker 2: play thirty to one. You also touched on Grande. I

438
00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:03,920
Speaker 2: like him for a lot of the same reasons that

439
00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:07,640
Speaker 2: you have that you've mentioned as well. Again, another one

440
00:20:07,680 --> 00:20:11,760
Speaker 2: who's like maje esque if you will right, very lightly raced,

441
00:20:12,040 --> 00:20:15,840
Speaker 2: ran a really solid second place finish in that Wood Memorial.

442
00:20:16,119 --> 00:20:19,520
Speaker 2: The Wood Memorial, though, has not proven to be that

443
00:20:19,800 --> 00:20:22,800
Speaker 2: key of a Derby prep race, and so that's where

444
00:20:22,800 --> 00:20:25,480
Speaker 2: the question marks for me come in on Grande at

445
00:20:25,520 --> 00:20:26,480
Speaker 2: twenty to one.

446
00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:27,240
Speaker 3: Johnny v.

447
00:20:27,400 --> 00:20:31,160
Speaker 2: Todd Pletcher are both obviously Hall of famers, Mike Ropoli

448
00:20:31,440 --> 00:20:35,000
Speaker 2: looking for that elusive first Kentucky Derby win. He's had

449
00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:39,639
Speaker 2: fort you know who obviously screeched two years ago. He

450
00:20:39,720 --> 00:20:41,600
Speaker 2: had last yeara the Derby favorite.

451
00:20:41,600 --> 00:20:43,280
Speaker 4: We all know how that worked out, you know, So

452
00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:47,200
Speaker 4: again a horse again breeding wise top and bottom bread

453
00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:49,720
Speaker 4: for the distance. You know, the question becomes is you

454
00:20:49,760 --> 00:20:52,639
Speaker 4: know what is where is he sitting in this field?

455
00:20:52,680 --> 00:20:56,160
Speaker 4: I think again he will be forward. I don't think

456
00:20:56,160 --> 00:20:58,000
Speaker 4: he'll be in that first group. I think he'll be

457
00:20:58,200 --> 00:21:00,760
Speaker 4: at the kind of beginning part of that second group.

458
00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:03,080
Speaker 4: So another horse at a big price that I do like.

459
00:21:03,760 --> 00:21:05,520
Speaker 4: You know you mentioned Rodriguez.

460
00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:07,520
Speaker 2: I think we haven't touched on this, but it's important

461
00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:11,000
Speaker 2: to note Bob Bafford is back in the Derby this year. Right,

462
00:21:11,080 --> 00:21:13,359
Speaker 2: He's back in with Rodriguez as well as with the

463
00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:14,840
Speaker 2: number one citizen.

464
00:21:14,440 --> 00:21:17,800
Speaker 4: Bull Rodriguez again coming out of the Wood Memorial it

465
00:21:17,840 --> 00:21:20,119
Speaker 4: was a win. I just said, the Wood has proven

466
00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:24,040
Speaker 4: to be not a super important or key prep race

467
00:21:24,080 --> 00:21:27,240
Speaker 4: for the Derby. What I really liked about Rodriguez is

468
00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:30,640
Speaker 4: he won a gate to wire fashion and opened up

469
00:21:30,800 --> 00:21:33,200
Speaker 4: in the stretch from down on the rail. There were

470
00:21:33,320 --> 00:21:36,719
Speaker 4: plenty of horses that had, you know, the opportunity to

471
00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:39,400
Speaker 4: run Rodriguez down and going back and looking at it,

472
00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:42,880
Speaker 4: Mike Smith didn't shake the reins until about the eighth pole,

473
00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:45,240
Speaker 4: and I don't believe I watched it three times. I

474
00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:47,480
Speaker 4: don't believe he ever even went to the whip, which

475
00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:50,119
Speaker 4: to me says that there's even more in the tank

476
00:21:50,240 --> 00:21:53,359
Speaker 4: for this horse. He's by authentic who also won the Derby.

477
00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:56,680
Speaker 4: So I think, you know, twelve to one Bob Bafford

478
00:21:56,880 --> 00:21:59,639
Speaker 4: Mike Smith, a horse who you know seemingly is going

479
00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:03,119
Speaker 4: to be more forwardly placed in here, who didn't seem

480
00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:05,480
Speaker 4: to need to use it all in the wood memorial

481
00:22:05,720 --> 00:22:08,480
Speaker 4: is one that I'm going to consider, and then I'm

482
00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:12,880
Speaker 4: going to go towards the outside with number nineteen.

483
00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:13,919
Speaker 3: Chunk of Gold.

484
00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:18,480
Speaker 4: The Louisiana Derby has proven to be a more kind

485
00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:21,760
Speaker 4: of top end prep race, if you will, And you

486
00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:24,040
Speaker 4: might say, well, Mike, how can you use chunk of

487
00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:26,719
Speaker 4: gold and not test tastic? Chunk of gold ended up

488
00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:30,440
Speaker 4: being in between horses coming down the stretch. If he's

489
00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:33,040
Speaker 4: got a clean run, I think that he's one of

490
00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:37,560
Speaker 4: the better closers in this race. Progressing really nicely and

491
00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:39,959
Speaker 4: I've said this on this podcast before for the Derby.

492
00:22:40,160 --> 00:22:43,440
Speaker 4: One of my favorite angles for the Derby in particular

493
00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:46,840
Speaker 4: is a horse who has paired his last two buyer

494
00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:50,600
Speaker 4: speed figures, suggesting one of two things are going to happen.

495
00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:52,239
Speaker 2: He's either going to see a jump up in that

496
00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:54,760
Speaker 2: buyer or he's going to regress. I'm hoping that Chunk

497
00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:58,160
Speaker 2: of Gold progresses off of those back to back ninety twos,

498
00:22:58,240 --> 00:23:00,880
Speaker 2: So those would be, you know, the long shot plays

499
00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:03,560
Speaker 2: that I would be looking at with final gambit the

500
00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:06,639
Speaker 2: three Rodriguez, the four Grande to ten and chunk of

501
00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:10,320
Speaker 2: Gold the nineteen. My only question for you in regards

502
00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:13,160
Speaker 2: to these horses because I will be including the number

503
00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:16,280
Speaker 2: twelve East Avenue in here hoping that he can potentially

504
00:23:16,280 --> 00:23:19,240
Speaker 2: hang on and catch the board after leading in the

505
00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:22,160
Speaker 2: early going. So the pace projector just to reiterate, has

506
00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:24,960
Speaker 2: to twelve East Avenue up front, has the number four

507
00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:28,080
Speaker 2: Rodriguez just behind him, and then has the ten Grande

508
00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:29,800
Speaker 2: in that third flight of.

509
00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:30,919
Speaker 1: Forwardly placed horses.

510
00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:33,600
Speaker 2: So all forward, but East Avenue actually on the lead,

511
00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:37,280
Speaker 2: Rodriguez behind him. So two part question number one, do

512
00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:39,640
Speaker 2: you not think East Avenue has the distance to get

513
00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:41,919
Speaker 2: all the way around the track and actually hit the board.

514
00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:45,399
Speaker 2: And number two, do you think Rodriguez capable of passing

515
00:23:45,400 --> 00:23:47,280
Speaker 2: horses if he's not on the lead, if he's not

516
00:23:47,280 --> 00:23:49,000
Speaker 2: physically the horse on the lead in nearly going.

517
00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:53,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, so I think for starters East Avenue. You know, look,

518
00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:57,600
Speaker 4: I think that he's gonna melt coming for home. I

519
00:23:57,640 --> 00:23:59,520
Speaker 4: don't think that he's going to be able to get

520
00:23:59,520 --> 00:24:02,800
Speaker 4: the distance, and he's kind of proven that in the

521
00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:04,840
Speaker 4: past at times, right, I mean, he wasn't able to

522
00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:07,399
Speaker 4: hold on at Keenland, obviously, just losing the nose to

523
00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:11,040
Speaker 4: Burnham Square. His other two or his only two victories

524
00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:14,240
Speaker 4: have been in front running fashion. One of them was

525
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:17,040
Speaker 4: last August where he broke his maiden at Ellis Park.

526
00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:20,600
Speaker 4: The other one was in the Breeders Futurity at Keenland.

527
00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:23,680
Speaker 4: Clearly this horse loves Keenland has run really well there.

528
00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:26,480
Speaker 4: But when he ran in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile as

529
00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:29,080
Speaker 4: the favorite, wasn't able to get the lead, obviously a

530
00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:32,320
Speaker 4: terrible break, you know, finished up the track. Then ran

531
00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:35,080
Speaker 4: in the Risen Star at Fairgrounds, wasn't able to get

532
00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:38,280
Speaker 4: the lead again and finished up the track. Yet again,

533
00:24:38,359 --> 00:24:40,320
Speaker 4: while I think he's going to get the lead, I

534
00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:42,560
Speaker 4: think again this goes back to the quality of horses

535
00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:45,760
Speaker 4: in this race. I just don't think that he's there

536
00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:48,480
Speaker 4: in terms of the quality. What I will say though,

537
00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:51,320
Speaker 4: is for those that are thinking or do like East Avenue,

538
00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:53,560
Speaker 4: one thing is the Brendan Walsh barn has been on

539
00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:57,159
Speaker 4: fire since the start of the Keenland Meet. And so

540
00:24:57,320 --> 00:25:01,560
Speaker 4: you know Brendan Walsh obviously trainer. Here, you've got Manny Franco.

541
00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:05,199
Speaker 4: He's an okay jock, is not my favorite, but I

542
00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:07,240
Speaker 4: don't think that he's going to be able to hold.

543
00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:11,600
Speaker 4: And then to your question around Rodriguez, I don't think

544
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:15,440
Speaker 4: that he needs the lead. Now you could argue, well, Mike,

545
00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:18,200
Speaker 4: the only two times he's won, he's been on the lead.

546
00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:20,919
Speaker 4: I think though that he can sit just off and

547
00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:23,880
Speaker 4: I do think that he will be forward enough from

548
00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:26,280
Speaker 4: his post position and from where the other speed is

549
00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:27,800
Speaker 4: potentially going to come from.

550
00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:29,160
Speaker 3: That he may not need the lead.

551
00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:31,800
Speaker 2: And I'm not worried about him being able to pass

552
00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:35,160
Speaker 2: horses if he needs to, which he should, because again

553
00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:37,159
Speaker 2: I believe East Avenue will have the lead in the

554
00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:40,480
Speaker 2: early going. My only concern is that it does seem

555
00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:42,600
Speaker 2: like a lot of the speed is drawn to the inside,

556
00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:44,680
Speaker 2: and it may force the situation where there's a little

557
00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:47,119
Speaker 2: bit of traffic that forces him to take a position

558
00:25:47,240 --> 00:25:49,959
Speaker 2: higher up than he intends to, you know, could there

559
00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:51,720
Speaker 2: could just be a crush of speed horses where East

560
00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:53,720
Speaker 2: Avenue a little bit more outside of the rest of

561
00:25:53,760 --> 00:25:56,160
Speaker 2: them may have a cleaner path to getting to the front.

562
00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:58,639
Speaker 2: So that's that's kind of where I see Rodriguez potentially

563
00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:01,119
Speaker 2: running into trouble is either running hard early, you know,

564
00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:04,159
Speaker 2: harder than he wants to early, or running into traffic

565
00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:06,600
Speaker 2: just because there's a crush of speed horses potentially coming

566
00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:09,119
Speaker 2: in trying to get over to the rail, et cetera.

567
00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:13,119
Speaker 2: Let's get into our exotics. We basically talked through the

568
00:26:13,240 --> 00:26:16,760
Speaker 2: entire field. How are we approaching actually putting these tickets together,

569
00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:18,320
Speaker 2: putting these horses on tickets together.

570
00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:19,600
Speaker 1: I have a very.

571
00:26:19,480 --> 00:26:21,920
Speaker 2: Easy exact box to give out if Biaza draws into

572
00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:24,240
Speaker 2: the field eight nine to twenty one. It's about as

573
00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:27,440
Speaker 2: simple as it gets. Journalism, Burnham square biasa. You could

574
00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:30,240
Speaker 2: even mix in. I mean, Luxer Cafe has been a

575
00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:32,800
Speaker 2: very difficult horse for me to handicap Mike. Having such

576
00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:37,720
Speaker 2: a high opinion of him certainly does improve my willingness.

577
00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:37,880
Speaker 1: To use him.

578
00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:40,600
Speaker 2: If Baasa is not in the field, I might just

579
00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:43,520
Speaker 2: play an eight to nine or seven eight nine exact

580
00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:48,800
Speaker 2: box or you know, potentially horizontal tickets where I would

581
00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:51,439
Speaker 2: have used Biaza the eight nine twenty one, I may

582
00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:54,359
Speaker 2: just sub in Luxer Cafe instead. So a lot of

583
00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:57,359
Speaker 2: my tickets are going to be built with Journalism or

584
00:26:57,400 --> 00:27:00,720
Speaker 2: Burnham Square and then one of Baiaeza a Luxer Cafe

585
00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:02,679
Speaker 2: on top. Depending if I is the draws into the field,

586
00:27:02,880 --> 00:27:05,880
Speaker 2: the horses I'm looking to use behind them, the three

587
00:27:05,960 --> 00:27:08,359
Speaker 2: to seven, the eight, the nine to ten, Final Gambit,

588
00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:12,920
Speaker 2: Luxer Cafe, Journalism, Burner Square, Grande. So again the seven,

589
00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:17,160
Speaker 2: eight to nine are repeats. It's Grande and uh It's

590
00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:19,399
Speaker 2: Grande and final Gambit that are like my favorite two

591
00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:23,000
Speaker 2: long shot selections. I'll probably mix in Rodriguez in some places,

592
00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:26,480
Speaker 2: and then as we discuss East Avenue there's potential other options.

593
00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:28,440
Speaker 2: But basically the horses, I'm going to be using all

594
00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:34,080
Speaker 2: the numbers. It's half the field three, four, seven, eight, nine, ten, eleven, twelve, thirteen, eighteen,

595
00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:36,439
Speaker 2: all the horses, I'm probably going to be using just

596
00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:38,760
Speaker 2: half the field. That may narrow it down slightly from there.

597
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:41,240
Speaker 2: If you do a trifecta with the eight to nine

598
00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:42,760
Speaker 2: three seven, eight, nine, ten and then the rest of

599
00:27:42,760 --> 00:27:46,480
Speaker 2: those horses, it's a six sixty four dollars trifective ticket

600
00:27:46,560 --> 00:27:49,080
Speaker 2: on a one dollar bet, somewhat reasonable to play in

601
00:27:49,119 --> 00:27:52,840
Speaker 2: the derby considering the size of the field, Mike, how

602
00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:55,879
Speaker 2: deep do you generally go when you're building triffected tickets?

603
00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:57,520
Speaker 2: You know, the way I structured it that like two

604
00:27:57,560 --> 00:28:00,400
Speaker 2: five ten structuring how deep are you willing to go

605
00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:04,120
Speaker 2: in a twenty horse field? And then go through your exacta,

606
00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:06,800
Speaker 2: your trifecta, your super facta, basically how you're planning on

607
00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:09,920
Speaker 2: playing is on Saturday. Yeah, So you know, I think

608
00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:12,040
Speaker 2: you've got to go a little bit deeper because there's

609
00:28:12,040 --> 00:28:14,320
Speaker 2: always going to be a horse that blows up the

610
00:28:14,359 --> 00:28:16,840
Speaker 2: board at some point somewhere along the way.

611
00:28:17,040 --> 00:28:21,560
Speaker 4: And since twenty thirteen, the average fifty cent trifecta has

612
00:28:21,560 --> 00:28:25,040
Speaker 4: paid over twenty three hundred dollars. So I don't mind

613
00:28:25,080 --> 00:28:29,359
Speaker 4: investing a little bit more here, adding more horses into

614
00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:32,840
Speaker 4: this sequence to you know, try to get a good

615
00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:36,639
Speaker 4: size score in here. My exacta is going to be

616
00:28:36,720 --> 00:28:39,400
Speaker 4: seven eight, so again my top pick in Luxor Cafe,

617
00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:46,960
Speaker 4: as well as the favorite in journalism over three, four, seven, eight, ten,

618
00:28:47,160 --> 00:28:52,640
Speaker 4: and seventeen. So that's Luxar Cafe and Journalism over final

619
00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:59,680
Speaker 4: gambit Rodriguez keeping Luxor Cafe in there, keeping Journalism in there,

620
00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:01,720
Speaker 4: and then you go to some of the long shots

621
00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:05,600
Speaker 4: that we talked about in the ten grande and in

622
00:29:05,720 --> 00:29:09,800
Speaker 4: the number seventeen Sandman, that will be my exacta. My

623
00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:12,680
Speaker 4: trifecta is going to be similar, except I'm going to

624
00:29:12,680 --> 00:29:15,080
Speaker 4: go a little bit deeper, so that exacta for one

625
00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:16,840
Speaker 4: dollar going to cost you ten bucks.

626
00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:18,440
Speaker 3: My trifecta is going to.

627
00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:26,720
Speaker 4: Be seven eight, over three four, seven, eight, nine, ten, seventeen, eighteen, nineteen.

628
00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:30,120
Speaker 4: And then those same horses in the third position. A

629
00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:33,120
Speaker 4: fifty cent ticket is still only fifty six dollars, So

630
00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:36,479
Speaker 4: I'm investing fifty six with the potential of having a

631
00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:40,160
Speaker 4: twenty six to three thousand dollars score. I'm willing to

632
00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:42,720
Speaker 4: do that given the amount of price horses that I

633
00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:46,160
Speaker 4: have in there, especially with my top pick being Luxar

634
00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:51,960
Speaker 4: Cafe at fifteen to one. Now I'll say this Superfecta.

635
00:29:52,080 --> 00:29:55,680
Speaker 4: The average Superfecta payout over the last twelve years is

636
00:29:55,720 --> 00:30:00,360
Speaker 4: fifty two thousand dollars now eously right minimum one dollar bet,

637
00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:02,800
Speaker 4: so obviously fifty two thousand, you're talking about a life

638
00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:05,760
Speaker 4: changing score. What I would say is it's a much

639
00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:10,080
Speaker 4: heftier investment. And so the way that I've built out

640
00:30:10,120 --> 00:30:13,480
Speaker 4: the Superfecta, just in full transparency, it's a three hundred

641
00:30:13,520 --> 00:30:16,640
Speaker 4: and seventy two dollars ticket. I don't know if I

642
00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:19,400
Speaker 4: love that enough to play it, to be honest with you,

643
00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:22,440
Speaker 4: but we'll still give it out. I've got seven eight

644
00:30:22,680 --> 00:30:27,920
Speaker 4: over three four seven eight ten and seventeen over three

645
00:30:28,040 --> 00:30:34,480
Speaker 4: four seven eight nine ten seventeen, eighteen nineteen over three

646
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:39,720
Speaker 4: four nine ten seventeen eighteen nineteen. So essentially I'm using

647
00:30:39,760 --> 00:30:43,560
Speaker 4: my top two selections in first, second, and third, but

648
00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:47,320
Speaker 4: not including them in the fourth place position to try

649
00:30:47,320 --> 00:30:51,720
Speaker 4: to keep the ticket more manageable and reasonable. If you will, again,

650
00:30:51,880 --> 00:30:54,920
Speaker 4: three hundred and seventy two dollars for a dollar, average

651
00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:58,120
Speaker 4: Superfecta payouts over fifty two thousand. If you're willing to

652
00:30:58,200 --> 00:31:00,760
Speaker 4: invest that type of money, great, If not, I think

653
00:31:00,760 --> 00:31:03,400
Speaker 4: there are other ways to go about betting this race

654
00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:06,760
Speaker 4: for less money but still a decent size score.

655
00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:10,640
Speaker 2: You're planning on playing these races on a budget. Super

656
00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:13,000
Speaker 2: EFFECTA is certainly the bet I would exclude. It's just

657
00:31:13,120 --> 00:31:16,040
Speaker 2: not an investment that I typically find myself able to

658
00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:19,000
Speaker 2: place in a twenty horse field, where I typically have

659
00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:23,360
Speaker 2: difficulty narrowing even past twelve horses, if not ten. So

660
00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:25,800
Speaker 2: you know, once you get to that point, you hate

661
00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:27,920
Speaker 2: to be the guy who leaves off right. You scratch

662
00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:29,880
Speaker 2: the one horse who ends up coming and forth, and

663
00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:32,400
Speaker 2: then that's your two hundred dollars ticket down the drain

664
00:31:32,440 --> 00:31:34,520
Speaker 2: that would have cost two fifty if you added one

665
00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:37,320
Speaker 2: extra horse to it. But that's the frustrations of playing

666
00:31:37,320 --> 00:31:39,920
Speaker 2: the Super Effecta at the one dollar minimum sometimes and

667
00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:42,840
Speaker 2: why both of us probably generally avoid it. I want

668
00:31:42,840 --> 00:31:45,000
Speaker 2: to back up and talk about some of the Kentucky

669
00:31:45,040 --> 00:31:48,360
Speaker 2: Derby Day undercard races, but first let's actually talk about

670
00:31:48,400 --> 00:31:51,480
Speaker 2: Friday's Kentucky Oaks and Friday's undercard, and then we'll go

671
00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:55,640
Speaker 2: back to Saturday's undercard before the Derby. So the Kentucky

672
00:31:55,680 --> 00:31:58,680
Speaker 2: Oaks Day undercard, MIC, you have a bunch of races,

673
00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:01,560
Speaker 2: four races I believe fit your targeting winners in go

674
00:32:01,560 --> 00:32:02,400
Speaker 2: ahead and give those out.

675
00:32:03,320 --> 00:32:03,640
Speaker 3: Yeah.

676
00:32:03,840 --> 00:32:07,560
Speaker 4: So the undercard, look, I'll be completely honest and transparent.

677
00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:10,040
Speaker 4: I think it's going to be pretty chalky. So I

678
00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:12,120
Speaker 4: think this is where you try to find a way.

679
00:32:12,320 --> 00:32:15,840
Speaker 4: Do you go horizontal and you're very thin and you

680
00:32:15,880 --> 00:32:19,920
Speaker 4: go for a larger base bet amount. My favorite undercard

681
00:32:20,000 --> 00:32:24,440
Speaker 4: bets on Friday in race five, number five Nitrogen eight

682
00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:27,200
Speaker 4: to five on the morning line. In race seven, I

683
00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:30,520
Speaker 4: think it's a free square. You've got the Beast herself,

684
00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:34,560
Speaker 4: one thousand pound gorilla herself in Torpedo Anna number two

685
00:32:35,360 --> 00:32:38,320
Speaker 4: in number in race eight, a little bit more of

686
00:32:38,360 --> 00:32:41,240
Speaker 4: a price at three to one, the number two give

687
00:32:41,280 --> 00:32:45,040
Speaker 4: me another. She's coming off a really nice second place

688
00:32:45,080 --> 00:32:47,840
Speaker 4: finish which was her first US start and her first

689
00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:51,240
Speaker 4: start off the bench, so she's got every right to improve.

690
00:32:51,480 --> 00:32:53,240
Speaker 4: And at three to one, I think you're getting a

691
00:32:53,240 --> 00:32:57,200
Speaker 4: pretty square price. And then the other under bet card,

692
00:32:57,800 --> 00:33:01,239
Speaker 4: the other undercard bet on Friday that I like in

693
00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:04,200
Speaker 4: race ten, again another short price at eight to five.

694
00:33:04,360 --> 00:33:07,720
Speaker 4: Number four ag Bullet, I just believe is the fastest

695
00:33:07,720 --> 00:33:10,680
Speaker 4: horse in the race, is cutting back in distance, and

696
00:33:10,760 --> 00:33:12,360
Speaker 4: I think it's going to play catch me if you can,

697
00:33:12,400 --> 00:33:14,360
Speaker 4: and I do not believe that anybody in that field

698
00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:16,880
Speaker 4: is going to be able to catch number four ag bullet.

699
00:33:17,760 --> 00:33:19,840
Speaker 4: Let's talk about the Kentucky Oaks before we move on

700
00:33:19,920 --> 00:33:24,880
Speaker 4: to Saturday Oakes. I like the number seven Lakara twelve

701
00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:28,200
Speaker 4: to one. I follow the clocker reports pretty closely in

702
00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:29,760
Speaker 4: the week's leading up to the derby. It's about as

703
00:33:29,800 --> 00:33:32,440
Speaker 4: much information as you'll ever get on how the horses

704
00:33:32,480 --> 00:33:35,680
Speaker 4: are doing leading into a race. Per Mike Welsh from

705
00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:40,240
Speaker 4: Daily Racing Form, Lacara working better than all of the horses,

706
00:33:40,720 --> 00:33:44,240
Speaker 4: than any horse in either main race for Saturday, working

707
00:33:44,280 --> 00:33:46,760
Speaker 4: better than all of the boys, and I talked about

708
00:33:46,760 --> 00:33:50,400
Speaker 4: glowing reports about journalism and Burnham Square. Mike Welsh was

709
00:33:50,440 --> 00:33:54,320
Speaker 4: extremely high on Lacara on the feedback he gave. So

710
00:33:54,480 --> 00:33:57,320
Speaker 4: that's certainly a horse at twelve to one that I'll

711
00:33:57,360 --> 00:34:00,920
Speaker 4: be targeting and I'll likely be playing the Keenland double

712
00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:04,000
Speaker 4: with Lecara coming off of her winning the Ashland. There

713
00:34:04,080 --> 00:34:07,120
Speaker 4: Lecara and the number nine Burnham Square in the Oaks

714
00:34:07,200 --> 00:34:11,440
Speaker 4: Derby double, both horses winning on the same weekend in Keenland.

715
00:34:11,160 --> 00:34:11,839
Speaker 1: Just a few weeks ago.

716
00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:13,680
Speaker 2: We'll see if we can pair them up at twelve

717
00:34:13,680 --> 00:34:15,600
Speaker 2: to one in the morning line in an Oaks Derby

718
00:34:15,680 --> 00:34:18,040
Speaker 2: day double. I'll also probably be using Lakara the seven

719
00:34:18,440 --> 00:34:21,080
Speaker 2: with the in addition to Burnham Square with the seven,

720
00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:23,400
Speaker 2: the eight to nine and the twenty one, the horses

721
00:34:23,520 --> 00:34:26,640
Speaker 2: we discussed as our potential top win contenders earlier, Mike,

722
00:34:26,760 --> 00:34:29,280
Speaker 2: who do you like in the Kentucky Oaks The favorite

723
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:31,360
Speaker 2: on the morning line is the number eleven Good Cheer

724
00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:34,080
Speaker 2: at six to five? Do you think she's a prohibitive favorite?

725
00:34:34,120 --> 00:34:36,879
Speaker 2: Do you think she's fairly priced at six to five?

726
00:34:37,280 --> 00:34:38,279
Speaker 2: Are you using her?

727
00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:39,680
Speaker 1: And what are their horses? Do you like?

728
00:34:40,400 --> 00:34:40,600
Speaker 3: Look?

729
00:34:40,640 --> 00:34:43,279
Speaker 4: I don't love the idea of betting chalk, especially in

730
00:34:43,320 --> 00:34:47,320
Speaker 4: a big race like this. She's legitimately done nothing wrong, Sean.

731
00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:51,680
Speaker 4: She's six for six lifetime and she's won three times

732
00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:56,239
Speaker 4: over this Churchill Downs track, one of them being on

733
00:34:56,320 --> 00:35:00,600
Speaker 4: a sloppy main track which we very well could get Friday,

734
00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:03,520
Speaker 4: pending on the weather. I really like Good Cheer. I

735
00:35:03,600 --> 00:35:06,800
Speaker 4: love her running style. Her running style kind of reminds

736
00:35:06,880 --> 00:35:08,719
Speaker 4: me of Secret Oath from a couple of years ago,

737
00:35:08,800 --> 00:35:10,880
Speaker 4: who I loved in the Oaks and who ended up

738
00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:13,879
Speaker 4: winning for us, so I do really like good cheer.

739
00:35:14,160 --> 00:35:17,120
Speaker 4: To your point, I also do like the seven Lakara

740
00:35:17,200 --> 00:35:19,799
Speaker 4: for a lot of the reasons that you mentioned. I

741
00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:24,320
Speaker 4: do believe that she's a need the lead type of horse.

742
00:35:24,640 --> 00:35:26,880
Speaker 4: I think that she should get it in this spot,

743
00:35:27,600 --> 00:35:29,960
Speaker 4: so we'll see what happens. I'm definitely going to be

744
00:35:30,200 --> 00:35:33,400
Speaker 4: using her. She also has run over this Churchill Downs

745
00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:36,400
Speaker 4: track three times with a win and a second place finish.

746
00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:40,359
Speaker 4: It is interesting to note that in her first start

747
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:44,400
Speaker 4: here at Churchill last May, she ran over a sloppy

748
00:35:44,480 --> 00:35:46,879
Speaker 4: track and she did not run well. It was her

749
00:35:46,960 --> 00:35:49,480
Speaker 4: worst buyer speed figure of her career. Now, could you

750
00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:50,960
Speaker 4: say it was the slop, could you say it was

751
00:35:51,000 --> 00:35:53,440
Speaker 4: her first start. It could be all of those things.

752
00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:56,640
Speaker 2: That being said, I still think at a nice price

753
00:35:56,719 --> 00:35:57,799
Speaker 2: you've got to include.

754
00:35:58,520 --> 00:36:01,799
Speaker 4: There's a closing horse from that Ashland race that I like.

755
00:36:02,200 --> 00:36:04,560
Speaker 4: But there are talks that she may scratch, and that's

756
00:36:04,600 --> 00:36:08,480
Speaker 4: the number ten. Take charge, my lady. She's had a

757
00:36:08,520 --> 00:36:12,719
Speaker 4: foot abcess issue. There are talks that she's going to scratch.

758
00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:15,880
Speaker 4: She's not been training because of the foot abcess, so

759
00:36:15,880 --> 00:36:18,799
Speaker 4: I wouldn't be surprised if she scratches if she's in

760
00:36:19,080 --> 00:36:21,040
Speaker 4: I think again at twelve to one a horse to

761
00:36:21,120 --> 00:36:24,239
Speaker 4: use underneath in your vertical wagers.

762
00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:25,360
Speaker 3: And then the other horse that.

763
00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:28,120
Speaker 4: I do really like in here though for a possible upset,

764
00:36:28,239 --> 00:36:32,080
Speaker 4: is the number fourteen quiet side, the John Ortiz Jose

765
00:36:32,360 --> 00:36:36,239
Speaker 4: Ortiz Combo. She's coming in off two straight wins. Her

766
00:36:36,320 --> 00:36:39,160
Speaker 4: last win was at Oakland Park in the Fantasy. That

767
00:36:39,280 --> 00:36:42,840
Speaker 4: fantasy has proven to be a very key Kentucky Oaks

768
00:36:43,120 --> 00:36:45,440
Speaker 4: Prep race, and she's a horse that will be more

769
00:36:45,480 --> 00:36:49,120
Speaker 4: forwardly placed from that outside post. She should get a

770
00:36:49,160 --> 00:36:52,319
Speaker 4: fairly clean run into that first turn. So another one

771
00:36:52,360 --> 00:36:54,200
Speaker 4: at eight to one that I think is worth considering

772
00:36:54,200 --> 00:36:55,520
Speaker 4: and using in your tickets.

773
00:36:56,400 --> 00:36:59,000
Speaker 2: For other potential winners on Saturday, you want to discuss

774
00:36:59,040 --> 00:37:01,399
Speaker 2: before we get out of here, three of which lead

775
00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:03,520
Speaker 2: into race twelve in the Kentucky Deary with races nine

776
00:37:03,560 --> 00:37:06,000
Speaker 2: through eleven. But first you have a pick in race five,

777
00:37:06,040 --> 00:37:08,399
Speaker 2: which is the disc after fmile is give that one

778
00:37:08,440 --> 00:37:11,000
Speaker 2: out and then give out your potential pick four that

779
00:37:11,080 --> 00:37:12,919
Speaker 2: leads into the Kentucky Derby. I'm sure we'll be seeing

780
00:37:13,000 --> 00:37:15,640
Speaker 2: some horizontal tickets in your right ups for Saturday as well.

781
00:37:16,239 --> 00:37:19,279
Speaker 4: Absolutely, and I'll start by saying, this best bet of

782
00:37:19,320 --> 00:37:23,200
Speaker 4: the weekend is race five on Saturday, the number six

783
00:37:23,520 --> 00:37:26,000
Speaker 4: Sacred Wish. This is going to be your second start

784
00:37:26,040 --> 00:37:30,080
Speaker 4: off the layoff. She always finds herself around the finish

785
00:37:30,120 --> 00:37:31,279
Speaker 4: line at the right time.

786
00:37:31,480 --> 00:37:31,839
Speaker 3: She said.

787
00:37:31,920 --> 00:37:36,040
Speaker 4: Nineteen career starts, four wins, seven seconds, three thirds. For

788
00:37:36,120 --> 00:37:38,560
Speaker 4: those of us you know looking at it, that's fifteen

789
00:37:38,600 --> 00:37:41,399
Speaker 4: of her nineteen starts in the money. She's never run

790
00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:44,120
Speaker 4: over this Churchill Turf course. I don't believe that's going

791
00:37:44,160 --> 00:37:46,560
Speaker 4: to be a problem. She's been running against some of

792
00:37:46,600 --> 00:37:51,560
Speaker 4: the top female turf competition in multiple Grade one events,

793
00:37:51,719 --> 00:37:54,239
Speaker 4: and I think coming second off the layoff, she is

794
00:37:54,360 --> 00:37:57,800
Speaker 4: my best bet of the weekend. And then you mentioned

795
00:37:57,840 --> 00:38:01,680
Speaker 4: I've got picks and races and eleven leading into the derby.

796
00:38:01,960 --> 00:38:04,600
Speaker 4: In race nine in the American Turf, I really like

797
00:38:04,680 --> 00:38:08,560
Speaker 4: number ten iron Man count. The question here is he's

798
00:38:08,600 --> 00:38:11,719
Speaker 4: coming off a fairly long layoff. How is he going

799
00:38:11,760 --> 00:38:15,239
Speaker 4: to perform? Trainer Phil Domato gets his horses ready. I'm

800
00:38:15,280 --> 00:38:18,160
Speaker 4: not worried about that. You know, he just missed by

801
00:38:18,160 --> 00:38:20,239
Speaker 4: a net in his last start. I think he can

802
00:38:20,280 --> 00:38:23,759
Speaker 4: easily flip the tables here and win. In race ten,

803
00:38:24,120 --> 00:38:27,800
Speaker 4: a horse who I've loved for a really long time, Vava,

804
00:38:27,960 --> 00:38:32,239
Speaker 4: who's coming in here at a really nice price at

805
00:38:32,280 --> 00:38:34,759
Speaker 4: six to one. This horse is a perfect four for

806
00:38:34,840 --> 00:38:39,160
Speaker 4: four over this Churchill Downs track and he's got five

807
00:38:39,280 --> 00:38:43,120
Speaker 4: wins from nine career starts going this distance. Also coming

808
00:38:43,120 --> 00:38:45,879
Speaker 4: in off of a six month layoff, he's proven, though

809
00:38:45,960 --> 00:38:49,440
Speaker 4: that excuse me, that she does not need.

810
00:38:49,960 --> 00:38:52,960
Speaker 2: A start in order to fire first off the bench.

811
00:38:53,360 --> 00:38:57,000
Speaker 2: She's an experienced horse. I really like her in that spot.

812
00:38:57,160 --> 00:38:59,920
Speaker 2: And then finally in race eleven, which is the turf class,

813
00:39:00,320 --> 00:39:05,759
Speaker 2: going to the inside with integration Integration. Again he's run

814
00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:09,520
Speaker 2: against some of the top quality turf horses last time out,

815
00:39:09,680 --> 00:39:12,279
Speaker 2: just lost to Carl spack If Carl Spackler was in

816
00:39:12,320 --> 00:39:15,719
Speaker 2: this field, he'd be the overwhelming favorite. This is a

817
00:39:15,760 --> 00:39:19,160
Speaker 2: horse who consistently runs in the nineties, if not one

818
00:39:19,239 --> 00:39:22,600
Speaker 2: hundred buyers, he's got the most one hundred buyers in

819
00:39:22,640 --> 00:39:26,960
Speaker 2: this race, having five of them over his lifetime. So again,

820
00:39:27,120 --> 00:39:29,040
Speaker 2: a horse at a pretty good price at four to

821
00:39:29,080 --> 00:39:29,640
Speaker 2: one that I.

822
00:39:29,600 --> 00:39:31,600
Speaker 4: Really like that I will be using in all of

823
00:39:31,600 --> 00:39:34,520
Speaker 4: my horizontals leading into the Derby on Saturday.

824
00:39:34,960 --> 00:39:36,759
Speaker 2: That'll do it for us for this twenty twenty five

825
00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:40,160
Speaker 2: Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks Day betting preview. Thank you

826
00:39:40,200 --> 00:39:42,440
Speaker 2: again for joining us. Thank you to Michael Kanti for

827
00:39:42,560 --> 00:39:44,560
Speaker 2: joining us as well and providing all of his insight.

828
00:39:45,080 --> 00:39:46,640
Speaker 1: This has been an.

829
00:39:46,520 --> 00:39:48,880
Speaker 2: Incredible preview and I'm very much looking forward to the

830
00:39:48,960 --> 00:39:52,480
Speaker 2: races this weekend. Best of luck with Augur wagers. Hopefully

831
00:39:52,520 --> 00:39:53,400
Speaker 2: the horses.

832
00:39:53,200 --> 00:39:56,360
Speaker 1: Run in the right direction for your tickets. Enjoy the Derby.

833
00:39:56,360 --> 00:39:57,080
Speaker 1: I'll see you against you.

834
00:40:00,560 --> 00:40:03,960
Speaker 4: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

835
00:40:05,160 --> 00:40:08,000
Speaker 3: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

836
00:40:08,280 --> 00:40:11,280
Speaker 3: help is available twenty four seven at one eight hundred

837
00:40:11,320 --> 00:40:11,760
Speaker 3: Gambler