1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:12,879 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:12,960 --> 00:00:16,960 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along with Paul Sweeney. Join 3 00:00:17,040 --> 00:00:20,960 Speaker 1: us each day for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 4 00:00:21,200 --> 00:00:24,840 Speaker 1: and international relations. You can also watch the show live 5 00:00:25,079 --> 00:00:29,400 Speaker 1: on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to 6 00:00:29,520 --> 00:00:32,920 Speaker 1: see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am 7 00:00:32,960 --> 00:00:37,000 Speaker 1: Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe 8 00:00:37,000 --> 00:00:40,360 Speaker 1: to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you 9 00:00:40,440 --> 00:00:44,600 Speaker 1: listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and 10 00:00:44,640 --> 00:00:50,479 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business App. We have two really important guests, 11 00:00:50,600 --> 00:00:52,720 Speaker 1: and you know when we put this together, Eric put 12 00:00:52,720 --> 00:00:55,520 Speaker 1: this together, I'm like, yeah, yeah, yeah, that was before 13 00:00:55,680 --> 00:01:01,360 Speaker 1: CPI yesterday. Ian Lingoln joins us now absolutely massive award 14 00:01:01,360 --> 00:01:04,520 Speaker 1: winning in the fixed income space and lighting it up 15 00:01:04,520 --> 00:01:07,120 Speaker 1: with me in Toronto a number of days ago. Francis 16 00:01:07,160 --> 00:01:10,560 Speaker 1: Donald joins for Manual Life. For half our discussion, We'll 17 00:01:10,600 --> 00:01:13,000 Speaker 1: take a break so Lisa can give you the markets 18 00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:17,720 Speaker 1: here midway. Let me start Francis Donald with you as well. 19 00:01:18,480 --> 00:01:23,320 Speaker 1: If we have higher inflation, does that mean higher nominal 20 00:01:23,400 --> 00:01:29,640 Speaker 1: GDP or does inflation adjusted GDP depress so much that 21 00:01:29,720 --> 00:01:31,839 Speaker 1: we don't get an animal spirit lift. 22 00:01:34,400 --> 00:01:36,160 Speaker 2: You know, Tom, once again, I think it's going to 23 00:01:36,200 --> 00:01:38,680 Speaker 2: take me longer to figure out what that question is 24 00:01:38,720 --> 00:01:43,000 Speaker 2: then answer it. Maybe what the heart of it is is, 25 00:01:43,000 --> 00:01:47,200 Speaker 2: is this all a system that is just operating as 26 00:01:47,240 --> 00:01:50,560 Speaker 2: it should in a new economy, that is operating at 27 00:01:50,600 --> 00:01:54,520 Speaker 2: higher levels? Or are we overheating? Maybe that's how I'm 28 00:01:54,520 --> 00:01:57,960 Speaker 2: gonna interpret that question, because that's what is weighing on me. 29 00:01:58,680 --> 00:02:03,160 Speaker 2: Are we overheata And if we're overheating, then the risk 30 00:02:03,360 --> 00:02:06,200 Speaker 2: of a more painful twenty twenty five twenty twenty six 31 00:02:07,160 --> 00:02:09,200 Speaker 2: is larger. And that's what keeps me up at night, 32 00:02:09,400 --> 00:02:12,400 Speaker 2: is if we're overheating, and I think this does have 33 00:02:12,480 --> 00:02:15,680 Speaker 2: elements of overheating and excesses, then it's all well and 34 00:02:15,720 --> 00:02:18,200 Speaker 2: good to say the economy's added three hundred and three 35 00:02:18,240 --> 00:02:21,960 Speaker 2: thousand jobs, there's demand in the system, we're not in deflation. 36 00:02:22,480 --> 00:02:24,840 Speaker 2: But if we don't get rate cuts now, then my 37 00:02:25,000 --> 00:02:27,800 Speaker 2: sensus twenty twenty five and twenty twenty six is going 38 00:02:27,840 --> 00:02:30,520 Speaker 2: to be more painful. And we've said a lot of 39 00:02:30,560 --> 00:02:32,920 Speaker 2: times Tom on this show and on other ones, you 40 00:02:32,960 --> 00:02:34,919 Speaker 2: can't have your cake and either eat it too. We 41 00:02:34,919 --> 00:02:38,960 Speaker 2: were in a soft landing narrative, but one of two 42 00:02:39,000 --> 00:02:41,240 Speaker 2: things was going to happen. Either we were going to 43 00:02:41,240 --> 00:02:43,440 Speaker 2: be in a situation where the data was too good 44 00:02:43,480 --> 00:02:45,640 Speaker 2: and rate hikes got put or rate cuts got pushed 45 00:02:45,680 --> 00:02:48,080 Speaker 2: out and the market wouldn't like that, or the data 46 00:02:48,160 --> 00:02:49,799 Speaker 2: was going to deteriorate and we were going to have 47 00:02:49,840 --> 00:02:52,480 Speaker 2: a session concern. That's exactly what's happening and what's so 48 00:02:52,520 --> 00:02:53,040 Speaker 2: important here. 49 00:02:53,080 --> 00:02:57,160 Speaker 1: After Francis throw me, Francis threw me under the bus there, right, job, 50 00:02:57,639 --> 00:02:59,280 Speaker 1: I'm going to go right over to Ian and ask 51 00:02:59,360 --> 00:03:02,160 Speaker 1: the same damn question and he'll throw me under the 52 00:03:02,160 --> 00:03:06,600 Speaker 1: bus as well. Okay, we got all the moving parts everybody. 53 00:03:06,639 --> 00:03:09,400 Speaker 1: All our listeners are viewers on YouTube. Their heads are 54 00:03:09,400 --> 00:03:13,200 Speaker 1: spinning here, Ian lingoln and the bottom line is inflation's up. 55 00:03:14,120 --> 00:03:17,200 Speaker 1: So we've got a set of outcomes that we can have. 56 00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:20,520 Speaker 1: In one set, is we get a more buoyant animal 57 00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:24,680 Speaker 1: spirit the overheating that Francis Donald is talking about, or 58 00:03:24,880 --> 00:03:28,280 Speaker 1: we get a really diminish GDP. What do you see 59 00:03:28,320 --> 00:03:32,080 Speaker 1: off these two inflation reports about what the animal spirit 60 00:03:32,200 --> 00:03:33,320 Speaker 1: of America is gonna be? 61 00:03:34,160 --> 00:03:36,160 Speaker 3: I think at this point, the biggest takeaway. 62 00:03:36,240 --> 00:03:37,720 Speaker 1: So this is where you say, Tom, you don't know 63 00:03:37,720 --> 00:03:39,720 Speaker 1: what you're talking about. I'll continue. 64 00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:42,440 Speaker 3: Actually, let me rephrase that, Tom, that was a brilliant question. 65 00:03:44,720 --> 00:03:46,839 Speaker 3: I think that Francis is right. You're gonna have one 66 00:03:46,880 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 3: of those two outcomes. You're either going to see things 67 00:03:50,360 --> 00:03:54,280 Speaker 3: go a bit weaker as the net takeaway over the 68 00:03:54,280 --> 00:03:56,880 Speaker 3: course of the next several quarters, or we're going to 69 00:03:56,920 --> 00:04:00,880 Speaker 3: find ourselves in a situation where we realize that five 70 00:04:00,960 --> 00:04:02,960 Speaker 3: point five percent is the upper bound for the FED 71 00:04:02,960 --> 00:04:05,800 Speaker 3: funds is not as restrictive as the FED believed it 72 00:04:06,040 --> 00:04:09,360 Speaker 3: was in twenty twenty three. What I worry about, however, 73 00:04:09,720 --> 00:04:12,520 Speaker 3: is that if we continue to get inflation prints at 74 00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:15,360 Speaker 3: these levels, the FED is going to find itself backed 75 00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:17,920 Speaker 3: into a corner where they need to cause a recession 76 00:04:17,960 --> 00:04:20,760 Speaker 3: if they're going to hold that two percent inflation target. 77 00:04:21,080 --> 00:04:25,080 Speaker 4: So it's Francis, I think from a past discussion, I 78 00:04:25,120 --> 00:04:27,320 Speaker 4: got the sense that you guys are very concerned, more 79 00:04:27,320 --> 00:04:30,159 Speaker 4: conservative than maybe the consensus on this economy. I took 80 00:04:30,200 --> 00:04:34,520 Speaker 4: the recession talk off the table a year ago. Was 81 00:04:34,520 --> 00:04:35,479 Speaker 4: that a little premature? 82 00:04:36,600 --> 00:04:38,760 Speaker 2: No, it would have been the right call, because yes, 83 00:04:38,880 --> 00:04:42,760 Speaker 2: we do believe there is downward surprises for growth ahead, 84 00:04:42,760 --> 00:04:45,240 Speaker 2: but they're not quite here yet. And this is what 85 00:04:45,279 --> 00:04:47,840 Speaker 2: the FED has to contend with. I'm with Ian on 86 00:04:47,880 --> 00:04:51,280 Speaker 2: this one. Is in the near term, inflation we think 87 00:04:51,360 --> 00:04:53,720 Speaker 2: is going to continue to surprise to the upside and 88 00:04:53,760 --> 00:04:55,719 Speaker 2: the FED won't be able to cut. They're going to 89 00:04:55,760 --> 00:05:00,440 Speaker 2: lose the data support to cut in the near term. However, 90 00:05:00,520 --> 00:05:03,239 Speaker 2: that increases the probability of a recession. And I remember 91 00:05:03,279 --> 00:05:06,159 Speaker 2: members of my team back in December said the Fed 92 00:05:06,240 --> 00:05:09,000 Speaker 2: is pivoted early. This is going to provide indirect easing. 93 00:05:09,080 --> 00:05:11,960 Speaker 2: We should lower our probability of recession calls for twenty 94 00:05:12,040 --> 00:05:14,600 Speaker 2: twenty four. But now that we're back in an environment 95 00:05:14,680 --> 00:05:17,720 Speaker 2: where we're losing those embedded rate cuts, we actually have 96 00:05:17,800 --> 00:05:21,280 Speaker 2: to increase the chance of something bad happening here. I 97 00:05:21,320 --> 00:05:23,159 Speaker 2: think the FED is going to be in a situation 98 00:05:23,400 --> 00:05:27,159 Speaker 2: with inflation data like this PPI numbers claims numbers where 99 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:29,320 Speaker 2: they have to stay higher for longer, and they may 100 00:05:29,360 --> 00:05:32,400 Speaker 2: have to stay higher until something breaks. That's the problem. 101 00:05:32,480 --> 00:05:32,600 Speaker 1: Now. 102 00:05:32,640 --> 00:05:35,600 Speaker 2: Meanwhile we're talking about PPI data. But yesterday we had 103 00:05:35,600 --> 00:05:37,560 Speaker 2: the Bank of Canada. This morning we have the ECB. 104 00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:40,640 Speaker 2: They're all saying we have the data to begin cutting. 105 00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:42,760 Speaker 2: I think in the next couple of months we might 106 00:05:42,800 --> 00:05:45,279 Speaker 2: not be talking about recessions, but we'll be talking about 107 00:05:45,400 --> 00:05:48,320 Speaker 2: how US exceptionalism, which was once a good thing, is 108 00:05:48,320 --> 00:05:51,120 Speaker 2: going to become more problematic for the Fed versus these 109 00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:52,600 Speaker 2: other central banks and economies. 110 00:05:52,760 --> 00:05:55,520 Speaker 4: Hey, Ian, I got the US ten year trading about 111 00:05:55,520 --> 00:05:57,240 Speaker 4: four point five three percent. Where's it going to be 112 00:05:57,279 --> 00:05:57,960 Speaker 4: year end? Do you think? 113 00:05:58,800 --> 00:06:00,800 Speaker 3: I think there's a strong case to be made that 114 00:06:00,839 --> 00:06:04,200 Speaker 3: we end twenty twenty four with ten year yields in 115 00:06:04,240 --> 00:06:06,800 Speaker 3: a range of let's call it three seventy five to 116 00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:10,520 Speaker 3: three ninety five. The big question right now is how 117 00:06:10,600 --> 00:06:13,320 Speaker 3: far do they back up until we start to get 118 00:06:13,320 --> 00:06:14,640 Speaker 3: some dip buying interest. 119 00:06:14,520 --> 00:06:17,120 Speaker 1: For the traders worldwide that hang on every Ian Lincoln 120 00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:19,880 Speaker 1: note Francis Donald's taking notes up there with manual life. 121 00:06:19,920 --> 00:06:23,640 Speaker 1: Right now, you have published a lower ten year yield call, 122 00:06:24,200 --> 00:06:27,359 Speaker 1: and you've also said if you get a yield yield, 123 00:06:27,440 --> 00:06:32,360 Speaker 1: lift load the boat after yesterday, after today. You've got 124 00:06:32,400 --> 00:06:35,240 Speaker 1: to be loving the acquisition of full faith and credit 125 00:06:35,279 --> 00:06:36,080 Speaker 1: paper here right. 126 00:06:36,680 --> 00:06:38,919 Speaker 3: I do think that we're right up against a range 127 00:06:38,960 --> 00:06:42,039 Speaker 3: where it makes sense to really load the boat between 128 00:06:42,560 --> 00:06:45,800 Speaker 3: that five sixty five and five, assuming four sixty five 129 00:06:45,839 --> 00:06:48,599 Speaker 3: and four to seventy five level and tens, I expect 130 00:06:48,680 --> 00:06:51,200 Speaker 3: a fair amount of dip buying interest to come in. 131 00:06:51,400 --> 00:06:55,880 Speaker 3: The caveat is that the ten year auction yesterday needed 132 00:06:55,880 --> 00:06:58,839 Speaker 3: a much bigger concession to be taken down, and I 133 00:06:58,880 --> 00:07:02,400 Speaker 3: think that that was simply the investors stepping back given 134 00:07:02,400 --> 00:07:04,520 Speaker 3: how much volatility there was in the market at the moment. 135 00:07:05,040 --> 00:07:07,600 Speaker 4: Yeah, that's what I just it's just amazing. I try 136 00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:09,520 Speaker 4: not to pay attention to those auctions. I'd rather pay 137 00:07:09,520 --> 00:07:10,000 Speaker 4: somebody to. 138 00:07:10,000 --> 00:07:10,600 Speaker 5: Do it for me. 139 00:07:11,280 --> 00:07:13,840 Speaker 4: But I did note that they weren't necessarily as strong 140 00:07:13,880 --> 00:07:17,280 Speaker 4: as maybe people will have liked. Francis, give us your 141 00:07:17,280 --> 00:07:19,440 Speaker 4: sense here of how well, let me ask you this, 142 00:07:19,640 --> 00:07:21,480 Speaker 4: what is the data that you're going to be looking 143 00:07:21,480 --> 00:07:25,840 Speaker 4: at over the next several days and weeks and kind 144 00:07:25,840 --> 00:07:27,120 Speaker 4: of get a sense of what the Fed's going to 145 00:07:27,120 --> 00:07:29,520 Speaker 4: be looking at. What are you going to be looking at. 146 00:07:30,440 --> 00:07:33,840 Speaker 2: We're looking at the job market because the focus has 147 00:07:33,960 --> 00:07:39,240 Speaker 2: turned back towards inflation, which is not providing enough cover 148 00:07:39,360 --> 00:07:41,840 Speaker 2: for cuts in the near term, probably not for June, 149 00:07:41,840 --> 00:07:44,360 Speaker 2: although I'm already getting messages from my team here that 150 00:07:44,440 --> 00:07:48,559 Speaker 2: the contributions from PPI that help us understand what PCE 151 00:07:48,880 --> 00:07:51,600 Speaker 2: will look like or actually looking fairly like. So the 152 00:07:51,640 --> 00:07:54,960 Speaker 2: Fed's PCE number might not be as spy as yesterday's CBI. 153 00:07:55,560 --> 00:07:59,320 Speaker 2: We're still worried about that labor market. Hiring activity is down, 154 00:07:59,480 --> 00:08:02,480 Speaker 2: layoffs are up, people are not as confident about their 155 00:08:02,560 --> 00:08:07,040 Speaker 2: job prospects, and some of these leading indicators inside job reports, 156 00:08:07,040 --> 00:08:09,000 Speaker 2: even though we look at the headlines like full time 157 00:08:09,040 --> 00:08:12,920 Speaker 2: employment down year over year, these are all really problematic. 158 00:08:13,000 --> 00:08:16,400 Speaker 2: Labor markets don't break in straight lines. They break in 159 00:08:16,480 --> 00:08:20,000 Speaker 2: nonlinear fashion. So while the market is focused on some 160 00:08:20,080 --> 00:08:22,240 Speaker 2: of these inflation dynamics, our eyes are going to be 161 00:08:22,280 --> 00:08:24,920 Speaker 2: on when does labor really start to break? Because when 162 00:08:24,920 --> 00:08:28,760 Speaker 2: it breaks, it won't matter whether you're a CEO, won't 163 00:08:28,760 --> 00:08:31,080 Speaker 2: matter whether you wear in the inflation higher for longer, 164 00:08:31,160 --> 00:08:33,600 Speaker 2: the FED will have to refocus towards the growth side 165 00:08:33,600 --> 00:08:33,720 Speaker 2: of the. 166 00:08:33,800 --> 00:08:36,960 Speaker 1: Candy Francis you know I'm out on a live chat 167 00:08:37,000 --> 00:08:42,240 Speaker 1: on YouTube. These guys are talking fishing in Texas and Wyoming, 168 00:08:42,559 --> 00:08:44,560 Speaker 1: and every once in a while somebody shows up with 169 00:08:44,600 --> 00:08:49,760 Speaker 1: an adult observation. Stargate kills it this morning, and Francis 170 00:08:49,800 --> 00:08:51,320 Speaker 1: this is a You know, I can go to Francis 171 00:08:51,360 --> 00:08:54,160 Speaker 1: because they get such confidence she can nail this. In 172 00:08:54,200 --> 00:08:58,400 Speaker 1: the old days, Francis teenagers got jobs. They were in 173 00:08:58,440 --> 00:09:03,280 Speaker 1: a restaurant, they were busy, and they got better. The 174 00:09:03,400 --> 00:09:09,320 Speaker 1: model's broken from immigration. Now restaurants are hiring really serious, 175 00:09:09,920 --> 00:09:14,120 Speaker 1: full time forty fifty sixty hour week, full time people. 176 00:09:14,720 --> 00:09:20,760 Speaker 1: I mean, the whole labor component of service has changed. 177 00:09:21,080 --> 00:09:22,760 Speaker 1: It's a different America. 178 00:09:22,360 --> 00:09:22,760 Speaker 5: Isn't it. 179 00:09:24,320 --> 00:09:27,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, And you know forty percent of Americans don't work. 180 00:09:27,840 --> 00:09:28,160 Speaker 4: Tom. 181 00:09:28,600 --> 00:09:31,520 Speaker 2: The employment population ratio in the US is about sixty 182 00:09:31,720 --> 00:09:33,840 Speaker 2: and that's because we have the largest share of those 183 00:09:33,880 --> 00:09:36,520 Speaker 2: over the age of sixty five than the US has 184 00:09:36,520 --> 00:09:39,760 Speaker 2: had in modern economic history. And beyond that, Yes, the 185 00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:43,720 Speaker 2: immigration component is becoming increasingly relevant, and there are plenty 186 00:09:43,840 --> 00:09:47,320 Speaker 2: of academic economists who are saying the extent of immigration 187 00:09:47,520 --> 00:09:49,559 Speaker 2: is going to change the amount of jobs we have 188 00:09:49,640 --> 00:09:52,040 Speaker 2: to create. You can actually just look north of the 189 00:09:52,080 --> 00:09:55,600 Speaker 2: border to Canada to see just how powerful huge amounts 190 00:09:55,600 --> 00:09:58,839 Speaker 2: of immigration it's substantially larger in Canada can distort your data. 191 00:09:58,880 --> 00:10:01,839 Speaker 2: In Canada, for example, GDP is looking just fine, but 192 00:10:01,960 --> 00:10:05,640 Speaker 2: GDP per capita has been declining since September of twenty 193 00:10:05,760 --> 00:10:08,440 Speaker 2: twenty two. So there's a myriad of factors that are 194 00:10:08,480 --> 00:10:11,040 Speaker 2: going in to change the composition of this labor market. 195 00:10:11,160 --> 00:10:12,839 Speaker 2: And yet, at the end of the day, tom if 196 00:10:12,880 --> 00:10:16,040 Speaker 2: people don't have jobs, they aren't going out to restaurants, 197 00:10:16,080 --> 00:10:19,679 Speaker 2: they aren't buying things, they aren't spending. And therefore, at 198 00:10:19,679 --> 00:10:22,480 Speaker 2: the end of the day, no matter how dynamic the 199 00:10:22,559 --> 00:10:26,920 Speaker 2: labor market is, if unemployment rises, it is bad. And 200 00:10:26,960 --> 00:10:29,960 Speaker 2: so first principles still apply even as the accomplish shifting 201 00:10:30,120 --> 00:10:30,640 Speaker 2: in ling. 202 00:10:30,559 --> 00:10:32,960 Speaker 1: And John Templeton once told me to my face, there'll 203 00:10:33,000 --> 00:10:36,760 Speaker 1: be a shortage of bonds. We have a deficit, we 204 00:10:36,800 --> 00:10:38,880 Speaker 1: have a debt. Do we have a shortage of bonds? 205 00:10:39,800 --> 00:10:42,920 Speaker 3: Our stance has always been, if you missed bonds at 206 00:10:42,960 --> 00:10:44,880 Speaker 3: an auction, you don't have to worry about it because 207 00:10:44,880 --> 00:10:47,680 Speaker 3: it will always make more, and they're always going to 208 00:10:47,720 --> 00:10:51,600 Speaker 3: be making more. Now, there might be some scarcity in 209 00:10:51,679 --> 00:10:54,959 Speaker 3: particular sectors at a given point. But what I think 210 00:10:55,000 --> 00:10:58,120 Speaker 3: is really interesting is as we approach the election, there 211 00:10:58,120 --> 00:11:01,840 Speaker 3: aren't any deficit hawks left in Washington, and everyone is 212 00:11:01,880 --> 00:11:07,439 Speaker 3: worried about a next level of deficit spending ending up 213 00:11:07,480 --> 00:11:09,880 Speaker 3: with more treasury bonds hitting the market. We're going to 214 00:11:09,960 --> 00:11:12,480 Speaker 3: saturate what the bill market can handle, and we're going 215 00:11:12,480 --> 00:11:16,079 Speaker 3: to need to see larger ten and thirty year auctions, 216 00:11:16,120 --> 00:11:19,840 Speaker 3: and I think that will be a big headwind for 217 00:11:20,080 --> 00:11:21,720 Speaker 3: a constructive outlook on bonds. 218 00:11:22,120 --> 00:11:26,160 Speaker 4: Are you or is the market concerned about deficits and 219 00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:28,480 Speaker 4: things like that. I mean, I've been hearing about this 220 00:11:28,520 --> 00:11:31,400 Speaker 4: my entire life, and I've seen the clock here in 221 00:11:31,440 --> 00:11:34,560 Speaker 4: Manhattan my entire life about the debt in his country. 222 00:11:35,000 --> 00:11:37,559 Speaker 4: Does the treasury market care about it at all? 223 00:11:37,640 --> 00:11:40,960 Speaker 3: Well, to some extent no. I would argue that ten 224 00:11:41,000 --> 00:11:44,000 Speaker 3: and thirty year yields are set off of global macro 225 00:11:44,320 --> 00:11:47,920 Speaker 3: expectations of growth and inflation, with some degree of a 226 00:11:48,040 --> 00:11:50,760 Speaker 3: term premium priced in depending on where we are in 227 00:11:50,760 --> 00:11:54,520 Speaker 3: the cycle. I will make the observation that term premium 228 00:11:54,720 --> 00:11:58,640 Speaker 3: and supply becomes far more important in a no landing 229 00:11:58,880 --> 00:12:01,920 Speaker 3: or a Goldilock sectanomic outcome, because that means that the 230 00:12:01,960 --> 00:12:06,360 Speaker 3: market has the bargaining power to demand higher rates. 231 00:12:06,400 --> 00:12:09,720 Speaker 4: Interesting, Francis, you know one of the issues out there 232 00:12:10,240 --> 00:12:13,079 Speaker 4: is the consumer here. What's your view of the consumer? 233 00:12:13,120 --> 00:12:15,720 Speaker 4: Amid the consumer buy and large, if they want a job, 234 00:12:15,760 --> 00:12:18,920 Speaker 4: they have a job wages are going up, I think 235 00:12:19,480 --> 00:12:22,680 Speaker 4: in excessive inflation. How do you view the consumer here? 236 00:12:24,400 --> 00:12:27,840 Speaker 2: It depends which consumer paul, because we're starting to see 237 00:12:28,000 --> 00:12:31,680 Speaker 2: a pretty large bifurcation between low income consumers and high 238 00:12:31,760 --> 00:12:36,280 Speaker 2: end consumers. High end consumers are benefiting from higher rates, 239 00:12:37,080 --> 00:12:40,760 Speaker 2: great stock markets, house prices. They still have excess savings 240 00:12:40,800 --> 00:12:43,679 Speaker 2: and therefore their confidence levels are very high. And yet 241 00:12:43,720 --> 00:12:46,960 Speaker 2: low income consumers are out of excess savings, they are 242 00:12:47,000 --> 00:12:50,160 Speaker 2: seeing their job prospects weaken, and they are hampered by 243 00:12:50,240 --> 00:12:53,600 Speaker 2: higher interest rates. This is why consumer credit card delinquencies 244 00:12:53,640 --> 00:12:57,440 Speaker 2: are starting to rise. So there's this huge spread that's happening. 245 00:12:57,520 --> 00:13:00,599 Speaker 2: It's the same spread that's happening between CEO confidence in 246 00:13:00,640 --> 00:13:03,920 Speaker 2: small business confidence that have this largest spread that we've 247 00:13:03,920 --> 00:13:06,559 Speaker 2: seen in the history of these two indicators being compared 248 00:13:06,640 --> 00:13:09,280 Speaker 2: against each other. So right now we know that the 249 00:13:09,320 --> 00:13:12,199 Speaker 2: top quintile, so the top twenty percent of US consumers, 250 00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:15,800 Speaker 2: spend thirty five percent of all the PCEE. And what 251 00:13:15,800 --> 00:13:18,480 Speaker 2: that means is the high end consumer can probably carry 252 00:13:18,480 --> 00:13:20,560 Speaker 2: the economy better than if we were relying on the 253 00:13:20,559 --> 00:13:23,360 Speaker 2: low end consumer. And that's why understanding these two dieparent 254 00:13:23,400 --> 00:13:25,439 Speaker 2: groups and why the data doesn't say the same thing 255 00:13:25,480 --> 00:13:27,200 Speaker 2: for each of them. It's gonna be really important in 256 00:13:27,240 --> 00:13:27,960 Speaker 2: the next six months. 257 00:13:28,080 --> 00:13:32,400 Speaker 1: Leguards, speaking in Frankfurt, I love this headline. This says 258 00:13:32,480 --> 00:13:36,800 Speaker 1: all about our Bloomberg coverage. Leguard repeats wording of ECB statement. 259 00:13:37,120 --> 00:13:39,679 Speaker 1: Hopefully we'll get to I like that. Hopefully we'll get 260 00:13:39,679 --> 00:13:42,720 Speaker 1: to Q and A here in a moment, aling and 261 00:13:42,720 --> 00:13:47,360 Speaker 1: I've got to go back to this combination's CPI PPI report. 262 00:13:47,520 --> 00:13:51,400 Speaker 1: Francis is going to brilliantly lay out how it gets 263 00:13:51,440 --> 00:13:57,440 Speaker 1: to what Powell cares about PCE, Trim, Dallas, Fancy Cleveland, 264 00:13:57,520 --> 00:14:03,160 Speaker 1: you know the other inflation indices. Does this CPIPPI combo 265 00:14:04,080 --> 00:14:07,120 Speaker 1: change how you write your note? Have you made a 266 00:14:07,720 --> 00:14:12,080 Speaker 1: fundamental shift in your inflation belief after the last forty 267 00:14:12,120 --> 00:14:12,680 Speaker 1: eight hours? 268 00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:16,600 Speaker 3: So I think that the takeaway from the inflation updates 269 00:14:16,760 --> 00:14:21,600 Speaker 3: has been that we thought January and to some extent 270 00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:25,560 Speaker 3: February or one off reports there were some seasonality. But 271 00:14:25,600 --> 00:14:28,040 Speaker 3: the reality is inflation looks a lot stickier than we 272 00:14:28,080 --> 00:14:30,120 Speaker 3: thought it was going to be at this point. And 273 00:14:30,160 --> 00:14:34,280 Speaker 3: I think the more interesting question is has the Fed's 274 00:14:34,520 --> 00:14:38,720 Speaker 3: reaction function to realize inflation changed? Are they going to 275 00:14:38,840 --> 00:14:42,520 Speaker 3: need to now signal that we have only fifty basis 276 00:14:42,520 --> 00:14:45,120 Speaker 3: points or even twenty five basis points worth of rate 277 00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:47,320 Speaker 3: cuts when we get the updated doc lot in June. 278 00:14:47,760 --> 00:14:51,480 Speaker 3: I would say that the short answer is, yes, we 279 00:14:51,520 --> 00:14:54,240 Speaker 3: are looking at fewer rate cuts this year, but the 280 00:14:54,280 --> 00:14:58,440 Speaker 3: way that the Fed approaches inflation hasn't changed. The biggest 281 00:14:58,520 --> 00:15:01,680 Speaker 3: risk is if they ever revisit the two percent inflation 282 00:15:01,760 --> 00:15:03,440 Speaker 3: target and we just don't see that happening. 283 00:15:03,640 --> 00:15:06,320 Speaker 1: Ian, Thank you so much, great experience, Francis Donald. We'll 284 00:15:06,320 --> 00:15:08,080 Speaker 1: get the two of you back together again. Maybe we 285 00:15:08,120 --> 00:15:11,480 Speaker 1: get you both in the office here in Montreal. Francis 286 00:15:11,520 --> 00:15:16,040 Speaker 1: Donald with Manual Life. Ian lnoln with us here this morning, 287 00:15:16,440 --> 00:15:31,960 Speaker 1: is well joining us now. Dennis Gartman on gold in yen. Dennis, 288 00:15:32,120 --> 00:15:36,440 Speaker 1: you have absolutely nailed this gold to the moon yen 289 00:15:36,640 --> 00:15:41,080 Speaker 1: down down to a thirty four year weakness yesterday. Do 290 00:15:41,120 --> 00:15:44,880 Speaker 1: you when do you cover this massive moonshot gain that 291 00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:47,360 Speaker 1: you've got years from now. 292 00:15:47,480 --> 00:15:50,120 Speaker 6: It's going to be quite some period of time. The 293 00:15:50,800 --> 00:15:52,920 Speaker 6: Japan is concerned about the fact that the yen has 294 00:15:52,960 --> 00:15:56,320 Speaker 6: traded to one fifty two, and they're actually speculating or 295 00:15:56,400 --> 00:15:59,160 Speaker 6: ruminating about the fact that they may intervene to stop 296 00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:02,040 Speaker 6: the end from week and beyond one fifty two. But 297 00:16:02,080 --> 00:16:04,200 Speaker 6: when I first started trading foreign exchange back in the 298 00:16:04,280 --> 00:16:07,320 Speaker 6: nineteen seventies, yen was trading three hundred and fifty end 299 00:16:07,360 --> 00:16:09,640 Speaker 6: of the dollar. It traded two hundred and fifty end 300 00:16:09,640 --> 00:16:11,520 Speaker 6: of the dollar, it traded one hundred and fifty end 301 00:16:11,520 --> 00:16:11,920 Speaker 6: of the dollar. 302 00:16:12,040 --> 00:16:12,960 Speaker 1: So the fact that we're. 303 00:16:12,800 --> 00:16:14,920 Speaker 6: At one fifty two y end of the dollar and 304 00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:19,680 Speaker 6: the possibilities of some intervention are I think inconsequential. I think, 305 00:16:19,720 --> 00:16:21,960 Speaker 6: if the if the bagg of Japan will to intervene 306 00:16:21,960 --> 00:16:24,680 Speaker 6: against the Japanese yen at one fifty two, maybe it 307 00:16:24,720 --> 00:16:26,520 Speaker 6: goes to one to fifty. But I think we're trading. 308 00:16:26,640 --> 00:16:28,360 Speaker 6: I think over the course of the next several years, 309 00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:31,440 Speaker 6: we trade yen back to two hundred maybe two twenty five. 310 00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:33,960 Speaker 6: Gold has gone from the lower left to the upper 311 00:16:34,040 --> 00:16:36,200 Speaker 6: right in dollar terms. It's gone from the lower left 312 00:16:36,240 --> 00:16:39,320 Speaker 6: to the very upper right in yen terms. It's gone 313 00:16:39,320 --> 00:16:41,040 Speaker 6: from the lower left to the very upper right in 314 00:16:41,120 --> 00:16:44,400 Speaker 6: euro terms. And it's going to continue. So it's inflationary 315 00:16:44,480 --> 00:16:46,880 Speaker 6: problems around the world, not just here in the United States. 316 00:16:46,880 --> 00:16:50,120 Speaker 6: Have been bullish of gold in yen euro and dollar 317 00:16:50,200 --> 00:16:51,320 Speaker 6: terms and continue to be so. 318 00:16:51,520 --> 00:16:54,480 Speaker 1: I can't say enough, folks about what you just heard. 319 00:16:54,520 --> 00:16:58,080 Speaker 1: There is classic Gartman, which is if you're not a 320 00:16:58,120 --> 00:17:01,760 Speaker 1: student a history, you don't get to win, and sometimes 321 00:17:01,760 --> 00:17:04,359 Speaker 1: you lose money. Gartman lost money in two thousand, I 322 00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:06,359 Speaker 1: think it was twenty one. He lost some money there 323 00:17:06,640 --> 00:17:09,920 Speaker 1: as well. But the study of history, every chart on 324 00:17:10,080 --> 00:17:13,480 Speaker 1: yen ends three years ago. Garbman has occuraged to go 325 00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:16,520 Speaker 1: back thirty years to look at the different trends in vectors. 326 00:17:16,560 --> 00:17:17,360 Speaker 1: Paul jump in on. 327 00:17:17,320 --> 00:17:20,720 Speaker 4: Gold, Dennis, who is buying gold these days? 328 00:17:22,280 --> 00:17:24,680 Speaker 6: Central banks have been the major buyers. The Bank of Japan, 329 00:17:24,840 --> 00:17:26,879 Speaker 6: the Bank of China has been a very large buyer 330 00:17:27,040 --> 00:17:29,760 Speaker 6: of gold. The Bank of Russia has been a very 331 00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:32,520 Speaker 6: large buyer of gold. Central banks have been buyers of gold, 332 00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:35,800 Speaker 6: and they are the sponsors of the gold rally. Thus far, 333 00:17:36,520 --> 00:17:38,600 Speaker 6: I think gold continues to go higher because of the 334 00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:42,679 Speaker 6: fear that the United States may trap Russian assets here 335 00:17:42,720 --> 00:17:44,840 Speaker 6: in the United States to pay for Ukraine. That's been 336 00:17:45,080 --> 00:17:48,359 Speaker 6: a discussion several times, and if that were to occur, 337 00:17:48,760 --> 00:17:50,840 Speaker 6: gold would go up another fifty to one hundred dollars 338 00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:53,680 Speaker 6: that day when that announcement comes out, So I think 339 00:17:53,680 --> 00:17:55,680 Speaker 6: gold wants to go a lot higher. Central bankers have 340 00:17:55,760 --> 00:17:58,480 Speaker 6: been the buyers. I'm a little concerned that we're actually 341 00:17:58,520 --> 00:18:02,479 Speaker 6: seeing the public in rather aggressively. So for my own account, 342 00:18:02,480 --> 00:18:04,320 Speaker 6: I actually sold a few out of the money calls 343 00:18:04,359 --> 00:18:08,040 Speaker 6: against my gold miners on Monday and Tuesday. But I 344 00:18:08,040 --> 00:18:11,320 Speaker 6: think gold wants to go demostrably higher. And those those 345 00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:14,520 Speaker 6: calls expire tomorrow and I'm slightly out of the money 346 00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:15,919 Speaker 6: on them, so that that's turned out to be a 347 00:18:15,920 --> 00:18:16,560 Speaker 6: good idea. 348 00:18:16,640 --> 00:18:20,639 Speaker 4: So have the have the miners traded similar to the 349 00:18:20,720 --> 00:18:21,560 Speaker 4: underlying bullion? 350 00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:24,960 Speaker 6: Miners have lagged well behind bullion for the course of 351 00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:27,159 Speaker 6: the past five years, to be quite honest, and now 352 00:18:27,160 --> 00:18:29,560 Speaker 6: they're beginning to pick up and catch up. I think 353 00:18:29,560 --> 00:18:31,879 Speaker 6: that if you're going to be involved in gold, g 354 00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:34,200 Speaker 6: l D is is where I've been with the bank, 355 00:18:34,280 --> 00:18:37,400 Speaker 6: with the with the endowment fund at the University of Akron. 356 00:18:37,720 --> 00:18:39,560 Speaker 6: But I think for the public, if you're going to 357 00:18:39,560 --> 00:18:41,679 Speaker 6: be a buyer of gold, be a buyer of the 358 00:18:41,680 --> 00:18:44,320 Speaker 6: gold miners. I think they're they're starting to catch up 359 00:18:44,359 --> 00:18:46,560 Speaker 6: to the to the movement that we're seen in bullion 360 00:18:46,600 --> 00:18:48,240 Speaker 6: over the course of the past several years, they have 361 00:18:48,320 --> 00:18:50,840 Speaker 6: become very cheap, and they want to go I think 362 00:18:50,840 --> 00:18:51,840 Speaker 6: to monsterrably higher. 363 00:18:52,480 --> 00:18:57,679 Speaker 1: Your extraordinary trade, folks, I'm talking about lifetime trade of gold, 364 00:18:57,760 --> 00:19:01,600 Speaker 1: but priced in Japanese yen. Let's move on, Dennis, to 365 00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:06,520 Speaker 1: the CPI report of yesterday. Is this a pandemic CPI 366 00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:10,480 Speaker 1: or is it a CPI from years in my ute? 367 00:19:11,920 --> 00:19:14,160 Speaker 6: I think this is a CPI from yours in my youth. 368 00:19:14,200 --> 00:19:18,000 Speaker 6: I think we're starting to see inflationary pressures incumbent everywhere. 369 00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:21,239 Speaker 6: Grain prices have stopped going down and started to go up. 370 00:19:21,400 --> 00:19:24,119 Speaker 6: Meat prices have been going up for a while. Clearly, 371 00:19:24,119 --> 00:19:26,679 Speaker 6: crude oil and heating oil prices have been going from 372 00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:28,520 Speaker 6: the lower left to the upper right, and I think 373 00:19:28,560 --> 00:19:32,320 Speaker 6: are going to continue to do so. Copper prices, ten prices, 374 00:19:32,400 --> 00:19:35,240 Speaker 6: aluminum prices have been going up. This is I think 375 00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:38,480 Speaker 6: a problematic circumstance, not something that's going to go away 376 00:19:38,480 --> 00:19:41,480 Speaker 6: anytime soon. And that's been one of the driving forces 377 00:19:41,520 --> 00:19:43,040 Speaker 6: behind the purchase. 378 00:19:42,680 --> 00:19:44,960 Speaker 1: Of gold, and gold's bull moved. 379 00:19:45,000 --> 00:19:48,720 Speaker 6: So I'm a little concerned again that the public has 380 00:19:48,800 --> 00:19:50,880 Speaker 6: gotten enamored of gold in the course of the past 381 00:19:50,920 --> 00:19:53,520 Speaker 6: week or two. But the fact that we've taken gold 382 00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:56,160 Speaker 6: down fifteen or twenty dollars from it's high, probably took 383 00:19:56,160 --> 00:19:57,960 Speaker 6: a few of the weekends that had come into the 384 00:19:58,000 --> 00:19:59,840 Speaker 6: market in the past couple of days. I think if 385 00:19:59,840 --> 00:20:01,919 Speaker 6: you you want to be a buyer, you've probably got 386 00:20:01,960 --> 00:20:04,399 Speaker 6: another fifteen to twenty dollars on the down side in gold. 387 00:20:04,400 --> 00:20:06,399 Speaker 6: But then I'd be a buyer there, no question. And 388 00:20:06,480 --> 00:20:09,280 Speaker 6: again I think the real trade is to own golden 389 00:20:09,320 --> 00:20:12,680 Speaker 6: dollar terms, yen terms, and euro terms. This is something 390 00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:17,160 Speaker 6: that's just beyond a dollar circumstance, beyond a US circumstance. 391 00:20:17,480 --> 00:20:20,160 Speaker 6: This is a global circumstance. It's prevailing right now. 392 00:20:20,160 --> 00:20:22,440 Speaker 4: Dennis, given that inflation print we saw yesterday, what do 393 00:20:22,520 --> 00:20:24,399 Speaker 4: you expect this Federal Reserve to do? 394 00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:30,920 Speaker 6: Two months ago, I in my bi weekly newsletter, I 395 00:20:31,000 --> 00:20:33,400 Speaker 6: said that it was comical that people were expecting five 396 00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:35,800 Speaker 6: to sick cuts in the overnight Fed funds rate. I 397 00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:38,439 Speaker 6: thought there'd be two to three at most. Now I 398 00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:41,240 Speaker 6: think it's going to be one at most, And if 399 00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:44,520 Speaker 6: we probably get one, it'll either be in June, at 400 00:20:44,520 --> 00:20:47,520 Speaker 6: the June meeting or at the November meeting. Probably at 401 00:20:47,520 --> 00:20:51,359 Speaker 6: the November meeting, simply because it takes place after the election, 402 00:20:51,840 --> 00:20:54,680 Speaker 6: and it would eliminate the concern that the FED is 403 00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:57,280 Speaker 6: political in nature. So I think there's only one to 404 00:20:57,359 --> 00:21:00,399 Speaker 6: come this year in an all likelihood be in a 405 00:21:00,440 --> 00:21:02,600 Speaker 6: November meeting for the FMC. 406 00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:04,480 Speaker 1: Dennis, I want to go to the back end of 407 00:21:04,960 --> 00:21:08,520 Speaker 1: the Gartment letter of years past. Mister Gartman is somewhat 408 00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:11,760 Speaker 1: retired when he's not out trying to qualify for the Masters. 409 00:21:12,200 --> 00:21:14,880 Speaker 1: And you know, Dennis, I got two questions left, and 410 00:21:15,119 --> 00:21:17,919 Speaker 1: let me get first here with the politics of the 411 00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:21,159 Speaker 1: Gartment letter. I think it's no surprise to our audience worldwide. 412 00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:25,400 Speaker 1: Possibly Dennis Gartman leans to the right. Is there a 413 00:21:25,480 --> 00:21:31,000 Speaker 1: separation between Republicans and the Trump supporters or are they one? 414 00:21:31,119 --> 00:21:35,680 Speaker 6: No question, no question. I am not a Trump supporter. 415 00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:37,520 Speaker 6: I will vote for mister Trump, but I'll do with 416 00:21:37,560 --> 00:21:40,760 Speaker 6: my nose held tight as I do. So this is 417 00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:45,440 Speaker 6: mister Trump believes in tariffs and protected trade. Republicans believe 418 00:21:45,480 --> 00:21:49,399 Speaker 6: in free trade and non tariffs. Mister Trump believes in 419 00:21:51,240 --> 00:21:54,040 Speaker 6: putting his fingers into the pie to too much with regulation. 420 00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:58,680 Speaker 6: Good Republicans are opposed to that sort of thing. So yes, 421 00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:02,240 Speaker 6: I think there is a dichotomy, a bridge a chasm 422 00:22:02,320 --> 00:22:06,400 Speaker 6: being built between old style Republicans such as I Libertarians 423 00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:08,600 Speaker 6: such an eye as I am, mister Trump. 424 00:22:08,440 --> 00:22:11,560 Speaker 1: You are more qualified, Dennis Gartman, than anyone I know 425 00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:15,040 Speaker 1: to answer this question. You served the University of Akron 426 00:22:15,560 --> 00:22:18,359 Speaker 1: on how they run their money and he was not 427 00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:23,879 Speaker 1: one but two NC State final four Dennis, do you 428 00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:28,320 Speaker 1: observe that the mania over athletics in America? Like it 429 00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:33,240 Speaker 1: an amazing NC State ends up helping the NC State 430 00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:37,280 Speaker 1: English Department. Can you make the attachment from big time 431 00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:42,320 Speaker 1: sports over to Caldwell Hall and the Melissa Crow poetry 432 00:22:42,359 --> 00:22:47,200 Speaker 1: reading and contest at NC State. You've done your homework. 433 00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:48,119 Speaker 6: That's very impressive. 434 00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:49,080 Speaker 1: Thank you for that. 435 00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:52,159 Speaker 6: I was I'm the chairman of the University of Akrons endowment, 436 00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:54,000 Speaker 6: but I was on the board of directors of NC 437 00:22:54,119 --> 00:22:57,080 Speaker 6: State's endowment for fifteen years and my heart is still 438 00:22:57,119 --> 00:22:57,960 Speaker 6: with NC State. 439 00:22:58,280 --> 00:22:59,240 Speaker 1: It was a great. 440 00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:02,800 Speaker 6: Run, amazing fact that both the men and the women 441 00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:05,320 Speaker 6: made it to the final four, and I think over 442 00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:07,920 Speaker 6: time that's going to be beneficial to all of our 443 00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:10,560 Speaker 6: programs at NC State. There'll probably be an increase in 444 00:23:10,600 --> 00:23:13,399 Speaker 6: the money coming into the endowment and they'll probably be 445 00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:15,760 Speaker 6: an increase in the number of people applying to the university. 446 00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:19,200 Speaker 6: So it was a great run. God bless the NC state. 447 00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:22,560 Speaker 6: And here's to the fact that we may vanquish our 448 00:23:22,600 --> 00:23:24,679 Speaker 6: foes at the University of North Carolina and Duke in 449 00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:26,000 Speaker 6: the in the coming years. 450 00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:28,560 Speaker 1: Hugely impressive there. Did you hear that? I heard that. 451 00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:29,720 Speaker 1: I believe I heard that. 452 00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:33,320 Speaker 7: That was to the west, Tennis Gartman, Go away, Tennis Gartman. 453 00:23:33,600 --> 00:23:38,040 Speaker 7: They're on gold Indian the trade of the last ten years, 454 00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:46,520 Speaker 7: there is no other way to put it. ECB, domestic 455 00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:48,200 Speaker 7: price pressures is strong. 456 00:23:48,800 --> 00:23:49,240 Speaker 5: I love this. 457 00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:53,000 Speaker 1: Paul, help me out ECB to follow data dependent approach 458 00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:55,800 Speaker 1: to determining rate pass. Can we all go home? 459 00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:56,400 Speaker 5: Exactly? 460 00:23:56,520 --> 00:23:59,920 Speaker 4: Data dependent? So again kind of right in line, tomb 461 00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:02,879 Speaker 4: leaves a the positive facility rate at four percent rate 462 00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:06,399 Speaker 4: in landed expectations. Now that everybody's kind of saying, all right, 463 00:24:06,440 --> 00:24:07,960 Speaker 4: let's get the jewe Now maybe they do. 464 00:24:08,440 --> 00:24:11,000 Speaker 1: Maybe if the FED did this with a fed TO 465 00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:13,160 Speaker 1: size and yes, we've got a couple of programs coming 466 00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:16,159 Speaker 1: up here, Cambri Canna driving that forward. But you know, 467 00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:18,520 Speaker 1: the fed TO side, if we had four hundred headlines 468 00:24:18,520 --> 00:24:20,320 Speaker 1: come out like we get here at eight to fifteen 469 00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:23,720 Speaker 1: Wall Street time. Maybe it'd be easier, it'd be clear 470 00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:28,160 Speaker 1: traders hold ECB rate that's steady, that from Bloomberg, very 471 00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:31,840 Speaker 1: important pricing, nineteen basis points of cuts by the time 472 00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:34,520 Speaker 1: Marcus Ashworth has his first gray here joining us right 473 00:24:34,560 --> 00:24:37,600 Speaker 1: now from London, Marcus Ashworth, Marcus, this is one of 474 00:24:37,640 --> 00:24:41,280 Speaker 1: the most value traditions. Every thirty days or six weeks, 475 00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:45,439 Speaker 1: whatever it is, to have you on how slow is Europe? 476 00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:49,800 Speaker 1: How different is Europe right now? The continent ex Switzerland? 477 00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:52,680 Speaker 1: How different is it as compared to America. 478 00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:57,880 Speaker 5: It's almost diametrically opposite at the moment. And that's why 479 00:24:57,920 --> 00:25:01,440 Speaker 5: I'm disappointed that the ECB is t and to wait 480 00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:04,680 Speaker 5: for yet more data dependent information which is going to 481 00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:07,680 Speaker 5: tell it exactly what it already knows. You know, we're 482 00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:10,840 Speaker 5: going to get a cut in June, that's long eight 483 00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:16,320 Speaker 5: weeks away. We had their ECB's own bank lending survey 484 00:25:16,720 --> 00:25:19,040 Speaker 5: out this week, which was just diabolical. I mean, it 485 00:25:19,080 --> 00:25:22,960 Speaker 5: shows you that the demand for loans is dropping even further. 486 00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:24,600 Speaker 5: They than they thought they thought it was going to 487 00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:28,480 Speaker 5: see it arise, It actually fell it quite substantially. There's 488 00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:32,119 Speaker 5: real problems in Germany, particularly the demand for borrowing, let 489 00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:35,680 Speaker 5: alone allowing borrowing. It's the worst type of a problem 490 00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:38,040 Speaker 5: you can't have when people then even want to borrow. 491 00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:42,040 Speaker 5: So in that sense, I think with the German manufacturing 492 00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:46,080 Speaker 5: heading back down again on the PMIS and a range 493 00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:49,760 Speaker 5: of appalling fiscal numbers out of both Italy and France, 494 00:25:49,800 --> 00:25:51,560 Speaker 5: which shows you that the government is not going to 495 00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:53,040 Speaker 5: be there to help in the way that it clearly 496 00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:56,280 Speaker 5: has been throughout the pandemic and onwards, that we don't 497 00:25:56,320 --> 00:25:58,560 Speaker 5: have that big stimulus boom that you see in the States, 498 00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:01,960 Speaker 5: which is continuing to make everything else look frankly dead 499 00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:03,320 Speaker 5: in the water. That's where Europe is. 500 00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:05,679 Speaker 1: Paul John Ferrell. First time I saw Pharaoh was at 501 00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:08,600 Speaker 1: the ECB one in Frankfurt. 502 00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:10,000 Speaker 5: S was this guy? 503 00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:12,520 Speaker 1: Yeah, this first time I saw him. Pharaoh demands a 504 00:26:12,560 --> 00:26:15,399 Speaker 1: red sticky. So we've got a red sticky, a headline 505 00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:19,360 Speaker 1: of famous Bloomberg red sticky. ECB rates may fall if 506 00:26:19,359 --> 00:26:23,400 Speaker 1: we're confident, Paul, inflation heading to two percent. 507 00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:26,320 Speaker 4: Good law exactly. So, Marcus, I mean give us a 508 00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:31,680 Speaker 4: sense of how the economies are across the European Union here, 509 00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:34,280 Speaker 4: because I mean I think again. As you mentioned, the 510 00:26:34,359 --> 00:26:36,920 Speaker 4: stimulus here in the US is boy, it's done its job. 511 00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:39,320 Speaker 4: But give us a sense of how in need do 512 00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:42,439 Speaker 4: you think of the European economy is for rad cuts? 513 00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:45,679 Speaker 5: What level of desperation do you need? I mean, we 514 00:26:45,720 --> 00:26:47,520 Speaker 5: have to get down on our knees and beg these people. 515 00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:50,320 Speaker 5: But I mean literally four percent rates may not sound 516 00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:52,000 Speaker 5: high compared to what they are in the UK and 517 00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:55,080 Speaker 5: the US, but practice speaking, when they've come from negative 518 00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:59,040 Speaker 5: fifty and eight years of sort of zero below rates 519 00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:02,720 Speaker 5: in Europe, this is a very high rates relatively speaking. 520 00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:06,080 Speaker 5: And you know, really there's no signs of life. I mean, 521 00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:09,560 Speaker 5: the economies are either flatlining at best or they're sinking 522 00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:13,800 Speaker 5: recession like Germany. And there's no prospect of any growth. 523 00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:16,359 Speaker 5: That's the thing that's that's depressing. There's nothing good on 524 00:27:16,400 --> 00:27:17,760 Speaker 5: the horizon coming, Marcus. 525 00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:20,800 Speaker 1: Some guests have said there's still an austere trend there 526 00:27:20,880 --> 00:27:24,679 Speaker 1: in austerity that's part of the culture. Are they following 527 00:27:25,280 --> 00:27:27,919 Speaker 1: a theory that's in the textbook, like in London at 528 00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:32,600 Speaker 1: LC Paul Beg b Egg. The Beg is the one volume. 529 00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:34,959 Speaker 1: It's like the man Q or the you know, the 530 00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:37,920 Speaker 1: one volume e kind one on one textbook. Are they 531 00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:41,159 Speaker 1: file on a textbook Marcus Ashworth or are they making 532 00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:43,600 Speaker 1: it up just like the FED, except with a cultural 533 00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:46,240 Speaker 1: template of Asteria. 534 00:27:46,560 --> 00:27:49,119 Speaker 5: They're busking it. They're not. They are making up in 535 00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:51,199 Speaker 5: the sense that they are desperately trying to stick to 536 00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:54,639 Speaker 5: this shibleuth of my word. Inflation is too high, and 537 00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:57,520 Speaker 5: it's awful, and we must wait till absolutely every single 538 00:27:57,640 --> 00:28:00,960 Speaker 5: inflation number is now that two percent below. They're not 539 00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:03,960 Speaker 5: far off that. Inflation's at two point four in Europe 540 00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:06,439 Speaker 5: two point nine on the core, but it's going to 541 00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:10,240 Speaker 5: be down to two very quickly. The ECB forecast it 542 00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:12,439 Speaker 5: to be at two point two in August. I think 543 00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:15,520 Speaker 5: it will be there next month, and down below two 544 00:28:15,520 --> 00:28:17,879 Speaker 5: percent it will go and it will stay below two percent. 545 00:28:17,920 --> 00:28:21,440 Speaker 5: That's my fair is actually not just disinflation, but potentially deflation. 546 00:28:21,760 --> 00:28:23,639 Speaker 5: If you get a proper recession, which is right on 547 00:28:23,640 --> 00:28:26,359 Speaker 5: the verge of in Europe, then I think I'll get 548 00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:28,120 Speaker 5: EASYB will lose control again. 549 00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:31,280 Speaker 1: You see euro moving rather one oh seven thirteen. We're 550 00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:33,639 Speaker 1: about ready to get a one o six handle and 551 00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:36,159 Speaker 1: euro that would be your Maine. The press come. 552 00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:40,360 Speaker 4: Parity exactly Marcus talked to us about the UK. Hou's 553 00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:42,200 Speaker 4: the economy over there, and what do you expect. 554 00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:43,680 Speaker 5: From do I have to? 555 00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:48,160 Speaker 4: Yes, Tim, and I will come over there and stimulate 556 00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:48,720 Speaker 4: that economy. 557 00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:51,600 Speaker 1: That's what you mean, Marcus, This is important. I read. 558 00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:53,840 Speaker 1: I get up folks at like one thirty and read 559 00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:57,440 Speaker 1: nine newspapers, and I finish with the British newspapers because 560 00:28:57,440 --> 00:29:00,960 Speaker 1: they're the freshest. It's six am. Even is up reading them. 561 00:29:01,120 --> 00:29:02,360 Speaker 5: And you know you read the ft. 562 00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:04,640 Speaker 1: In that, Marcus. I read the Telegraph. I want to 563 00:29:04,680 --> 00:29:08,000 Speaker 1: slit my wrists. Isn't that bad over in the UK? 564 00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:11,320 Speaker 5: No, it's not at all, And then the newspapers are 565 00:29:11,320 --> 00:29:13,080 Speaker 5: making far more out of it than there really is. 566 00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:14,600 Speaker 5: It's fine here. In fact, I've many of these, a 567 00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:16,840 Speaker 5: bit more growth in UK than there is in most 568 00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:20,000 Speaker 5: of the rest of Europe. Things are fine, they're not brilliant. 569 00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:24,000 Speaker 5: I think we'll have inflation much lower than two percent 570 00:29:24,800 --> 00:29:27,160 Speaker 5: by the summer, probably down at one point five and lower. 571 00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:29,480 Speaker 5: So the question is will and will the banking will 572 00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:32,960 Speaker 5: ever wake up and cut interistrates. Well, we might get 573 00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:34,600 Speaker 5: one in June of a lucky but a bit like 574 00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:36,760 Speaker 5: ECB today, they're still in Denial. 575 00:29:37,400 --> 00:29:39,040 Speaker 4: I see the old fire alarm is going off a 576 00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:40,600 Speaker 4: Queen Victoria Street in London. 577 00:29:40,800 --> 00:29:41,560 Speaker 5: Flames are behind it. 578 00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:44,480 Speaker 1: I got that the fire alarm is there because franc 579 00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:47,160 Speaker 1: In the quasi of and a tantrum that they're at 580 00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:51,080 Speaker 1: a Eli espresso. That's where fire alarm's gone. 581 00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:53,600 Speaker 4: Us Marcus talked to us about Germany, because that's you know, 582 00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:55,959 Speaker 4: as goes Germany, as goes a lot of the the 583 00:29:56,000 --> 00:29:57,959 Speaker 4: EU is kind of how a lot of us over 584 00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:01,720 Speaker 4: here in the States figure it, their dependence on China, 585 00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:05,960 Speaker 4: that type of thing. What's the latest on the German economy, Well. 586 00:30:05,800 --> 00:30:08,120 Speaker 5: I mean they are in a very bad situation where 587 00:30:08,200 --> 00:30:13,680 Speaker 5: their basic model of cheap Russian hydrocarbons it has gone 588 00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:17,880 Speaker 5: probably forever, and their main export markets to China and 589 00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:20,880 Speaker 5: Russia as well are nowhere near as strong as or 590 00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:23,600 Speaker 5: non existent now. So you know, we've got a real 591 00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:26,760 Speaker 5: situation with electric vehicles where Das Auto has got a 592 00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:31,040 Speaker 5: major competitive problem now ironically with China, because they've they've 593 00:30:31,040 --> 00:30:32,560 Speaker 5: sold them all a kit over the years to make 594 00:30:32,600 --> 00:30:34,760 Speaker 5: the machines and now they're trying to those machines have 595 00:30:35,160 --> 00:30:38,320 Speaker 5: been sold back to them, so it's it's really not great. 596 00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:42,360 Speaker 5: Jammy at one point is got a great fiscal balance, 597 00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:45,320 Speaker 5: it's got a resources. It'll be fine, But for the 598 00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:46,920 Speaker 5: short term it's pretty bleak. 599 00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:49,479 Speaker 1: Right in in Marcus. Just to help you here, when 600 00:30:49,520 --> 00:30:52,120 Speaker 1: there's a fire alarm at Queen Victoria Street, I know 601 00:30:52,160 --> 00:30:55,640 Speaker 1: that you all gather at the ned Yep in Secone's 602 00:30:55,760 --> 00:31:00,600 Speaker 1: is the bar when you exit the buildings Worth with 603 00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:03,760 Speaker 1: a little fire alarm theater in London with good perspective 604 00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:14,480 Speaker 1: on the ECB. Now a look at the front pages. 605 00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:17,760 Speaker 1: What's making news around the world. Your daily roundup of 606 00:31:17,880 --> 00:31:22,600 Speaker 1: today's headlines from major publications. Bloomberg, Survanas with futures and 607 00:31:22,720 --> 00:31:26,680 Speaker 1: negative twenty five PPI. Here in forty minutes. We're always 608 00:31:26,680 --> 00:31:29,680 Speaker 1: brought to you the newspapers. Alisa Matteo hour brought to 609 00:31:29,680 --> 00:31:34,160 Speaker 1: you by ibk R Financial Advisors switched to Interactive Brokers 610 00:31:34,200 --> 00:31:38,880 Speaker 1: for lowest cost global trading and turn key custody solutions, 611 00:31:39,320 --> 00:31:42,920 Speaker 1: no ticket charges, no conflicts of your interests. Do that 612 00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:48,200 Speaker 1: at ibkr dot com slash r ia. I looked at 613 00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:51,720 Speaker 1: the newspapers. They were nuts today at the angry Beavers. 614 00:31:52,080 --> 00:31:53,680 Speaker 1: Lisa tell us about the. 615 00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:56,160 Speaker 8: Newspapers, this is something we talk about all the time 616 00:31:56,200 --> 00:31:58,360 Speaker 8: as we start to see people roll into the office. 617 00:31:58,480 --> 00:32:03,000 Speaker 8: New York City's return to office years eighty percent, that's 618 00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:06,320 Speaker 8: what they're saying, and that's thanks to banks. Actually, it's 619 00:32:06,320 --> 00:32:08,520 Speaker 8: a good write up in Bloomberg. It points the Goldman 620 00:32:08,600 --> 00:32:11,200 Speaker 8: sacks JP Morgan Chase one of two of the big ones, 621 00:32:11,440 --> 00:32:13,840 Speaker 8: a rebound. Also in Miami, two people going back to 622 00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:16,400 Speaker 8: the office. So the study says return to office rates 623 00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:19,840 Speaker 8: last year for both cities were the highest among seven 624 00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:23,120 Speaker 8: major markets, above the national average of about sixty three percent. 625 00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:25,920 Speaker 8: Some more people coming in coming into the office, not 626 00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:26,360 Speaker 8: buying it. 627 00:32:26,960 --> 00:32:27,720 Speaker 1: You're not buying it. 628 00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:30,920 Speaker 4: Look at that the senior BI management is in New 629 00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:33,400 Speaker 4: York today, So that's a rare sighting. So good for them. 630 00:32:33,440 --> 00:32:35,680 Speaker 1: When I find it interesting, I know, because of time, 631 00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:38,560 Speaker 1: we can't go on all day about this. I'm watching 632 00:32:38,760 --> 00:32:43,360 Speaker 1: every single tweet in elon musk X there's a feed 633 00:32:44,040 --> 00:32:49,720 Speaker 1: of all the busted suburban class B properties, and to 634 00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:52,719 Speaker 1: me that folds right over into what's happening in Manhattan 635 00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:55,240 Speaker 1: or Chicago or a great article. I'll give you the 636 00:32:55,320 --> 00:32:58,600 Speaker 1: journal credit on Saint Louis. The other day, there's something 637 00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:02,240 Speaker 1: going on out here, Paul, way bigger than what we've 638 00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:02,800 Speaker 1: got here. 639 00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:04,920 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think the commercial real estate issue is going 640 00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:06,760 Speaker 4: to be a multi year issue that we're gonna be 641 00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:07,200 Speaker 4: dealing with. 642 00:33:08,200 --> 00:33:10,840 Speaker 8: Ru Yeah, New York City airports, you've been there lately 643 00:33:10,840 --> 00:33:13,400 Speaker 8: they look a little better. Yes, Yes, they look much better. 644 00:33:13,680 --> 00:33:17,120 Speaker 8: Twenty sixteen, you remember JFK, Newark, LaGuardia. They're among the 645 00:33:17,120 --> 00:33:19,160 Speaker 8: ten worst. So now things are getting better. You have 646 00:33:19,200 --> 00:33:22,760 Speaker 8: LaGuardia's new Terminal B, Newark's new Terminal A. In March, 647 00:33:22,800 --> 00:33:26,840 Speaker 8: LaGuardia actually earned the title for best airport in North America. 648 00:33:26,920 --> 00:33:30,120 Speaker 8: But you have JFK too. They're undergoing a nineteen billion 649 00:33:30,160 --> 00:33:34,120 Speaker 8: dollar worth of construction on the terminals, expanding ones, upgrading 650 00:33:34,120 --> 00:33:37,880 Speaker 8: the roadways. By twenty twenty six, more than thirty billion 651 00:33:38,000 --> 00:33:40,120 Speaker 8: investment is going to go into making them all state 652 00:33:40,160 --> 00:33:40,920 Speaker 8: of the art airports. 653 00:33:41,000 --> 00:33:43,440 Speaker 1: What I noticed in that article, which goes to the 654 00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:48,120 Speaker 1: magic of very high feed Heathrow or Zurich, is the 655 00:33:48,200 --> 00:33:53,000 Speaker 1: maintain and they're putting incentives in I think now so 656 00:33:53,080 --> 00:33:56,840 Speaker 1: that these palaces that we've built won't be ruined in 657 00:33:56,880 --> 00:33:59,720 Speaker 1: two thousand and thirty or twenty thirty five. To me, 658 00:33:59,800 --> 00:34:05,880 Speaker 1: the maintenance of these gorgeosities is really to me important 659 00:34:06,280 --> 00:34:08,760 Speaker 1: and the lines have been pretty good recently. 660 00:34:08,560 --> 00:34:11,000 Speaker 4: Even at I'm heading over to Terminal A at Newark 661 00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:11,680 Speaker 4: in a few. 662 00:34:11,520 --> 00:34:15,799 Speaker 1: Hours to ask where we go. We're going down the show. 663 00:34:15,880 --> 00:34:18,359 Speaker 4: We're going down to Durham, North Carolina to see our 664 00:34:18,360 --> 00:34:20,359 Speaker 4: friends at Duke. So but the Terminal A has been 665 00:34:20,480 --> 00:34:21,320 Speaker 4: it is amazing. 666 00:34:21,600 --> 00:34:22,480 Speaker 1: It's really nice. 667 00:34:22,520 --> 00:34:23,799 Speaker 4: It's European nice. 668 00:34:23,920 --> 00:34:26,040 Speaker 1: Now you're going to talk you is Caliad? Did you 669 00:34:26,160 --> 00:34:28,000 Speaker 1: come down to see about Arkansas now? 670 00:34:29,120 --> 00:34:30,680 Speaker 4: And I'll check in with coach Shire down it. 671 00:34:31,120 --> 00:34:32,480 Speaker 1: Can you do that? Lisa? 672 00:34:32,520 --> 00:34:35,080 Speaker 8: What else do you We talked about the Masters before 673 00:34:35,160 --> 00:34:37,480 Speaker 8: kicking off Augusta National today right, a little bit delayed 674 00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:39,239 Speaker 8: because of the weather. But the Wall Street Journal has 675 00:34:39,280 --> 00:34:41,960 Speaker 8: a good look into the golf industry itself. You know, 676 00:34:42,000 --> 00:34:43,640 Speaker 8: the golf is a great game, but is it a 677 00:34:43,680 --> 00:34:46,520 Speaker 8: good business? That's the question. So there's been a number 678 00:34:46,520 --> 00:34:50,440 Speaker 8: of rounds played growing nationwide, uptick and new golf course development. 679 00:34:50,560 --> 00:34:53,959 Speaker 8: Private clubs have waiting lists for memberships. Some are saying 680 00:34:53,960 --> 00:34:56,160 Speaker 8: though that popularity is going to start to fall. But 681 00:34:56,680 --> 00:34:59,960 Speaker 8: the people, the way people experience golf, that's also changing. 682 00:35:00,120 --> 00:35:01,919 Speaker 8: Two which is helping the sport. You have the top 683 00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:04,760 Speaker 8: golf era right, people go into top golf driving ranges. 684 00:35:04,840 --> 00:35:07,480 Speaker 8: You have the mix of entertainment, drinks, friends, you know, 685 00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:11,359 Speaker 8: everybody having a good time. Golf club membership is offering more. 686 00:35:11,480 --> 00:35:16,160 Speaker 8: They're converting these boardrooms into family dining rooms. They're offering daycare, 687 00:35:16,920 --> 00:35:17,920 Speaker 8: junior golf characters. 688 00:35:18,080 --> 00:35:20,560 Speaker 1: They're offering more. I'm looking at have you done top golf? 689 00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:21,600 Speaker 5: I've done it. 690 00:35:21,680 --> 00:35:22,839 Speaker 4: Yes, it's a lot of fun. 691 00:35:23,120 --> 00:35:25,080 Speaker 1: It's a lot of fun. I'm looking at it, and 692 00:35:25,080 --> 00:35:28,240 Speaker 1: they want it to be one big party alcohol led Okay, great. 693 00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:31,160 Speaker 1: Can they teach me to play golf like they can 694 00:35:32,080 --> 00:35:33,000 Speaker 1: Damien SaaS Hour. 695 00:35:33,160 --> 00:35:35,239 Speaker 4: I don't know about Damien SaaS Hour, but I mean 696 00:35:35,440 --> 00:35:37,880 Speaker 4: the weightlist our club is eighteen months. It's the biggest 697 00:35:37,920 --> 00:35:40,640 Speaker 4: it's been in about fifteen twenty years. So, but any 698 00:35:40,680 --> 00:35:43,319 Speaker 4: think about the pandemic when everybody was locked down the 699 00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:44,600 Speaker 4: golf course was past. 700 00:35:45,000 --> 00:35:48,040 Speaker 1: Want everybody to understand you can, yes, and Sarah knows 701 00:35:48,040 --> 00:35:50,560 Speaker 1: this in the control room. Sarah, the closest I get 702 00:35:50,600 --> 00:35:53,160 Speaker 1: to a weight list of the club is Famiglia at 703 00:35:53,200 --> 00:35:56,120 Speaker 1: Madison in ninety seventh Street. You have a weight list 704 00:35:56,160 --> 00:35:56,600 Speaker 1: at your. 705 00:35:56,440 --> 00:35:58,000 Speaker 4: Club, yes, eighteen months. 706 00:35:58,520 --> 00:36:01,279 Speaker 1: Well, how much pray tell is the upfront money once 707 00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:03,080 Speaker 1: you just wander off the weight list. 708 00:36:03,440 --> 00:36:05,560 Speaker 4: I don't know what the number is. I'm gonna say 709 00:36:05,640 --> 00:36:08,000 Speaker 4: fifty wow, maybe. 710 00:36:07,600 --> 00:36:09,960 Speaker 1: Five oh five oh fifty dollars? 711 00:36:10,160 --> 00:36:15,759 Speaker 4: Yes, put a couple of fifty coma yeah, I think yes, 712 00:36:15,760 --> 00:36:16,959 Speaker 4: some something along with at Lisa. 713 00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:18,560 Speaker 1: We're not breathing the same oxygen. 714 00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:19,719 Speaker 5: God, what else? 715 00:36:20,120 --> 00:36:22,400 Speaker 8: Since we're talking about the price of golf. Okay, so 716 00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:25,760 Speaker 8: all the billionaires moving to Miami, the price of golf 717 00:36:25,800 --> 00:36:29,439 Speaker 8: memberships there have skyrocketed. Okay, you have top clubs around 718 00:36:29,480 --> 00:36:33,440 Speaker 8: Miami double or triple their membership fees since twenty twenty. Uh, 719 00:36:33,600 --> 00:36:37,680 Speaker 8: here's the figure high six and seven figure joining fees. 720 00:36:37,840 --> 00:36:40,640 Speaker 8: That's what they're charging. Nearly impossible to get in. Like 721 00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:42,319 Speaker 8: you said, they do have the weight list too, but 722 00:36:42,480 --> 00:36:44,880 Speaker 8: then there's more that are coming in, so they're starting 723 00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:45,200 Speaker 8: to grow. 724 00:36:45,239 --> 00:36:47,279 Speaker 4: You have just a million and one golf courses down 725 00:36:47,320 --> 00:36:50,200 Speaker 4: there you fly into, like Miami for lauder doll everywhere 726 00:36:50,239 --> 00:36:53,120 Speaker 4: you look, there's a lighting lists crazy. 727 00:36:53,160 --> 00:36:54,120 Speaker 5: But they're building new ones. 728 00:36:54,160 --> 00:36:56,640 Speaker 8: There's a New York base developer Witcoff. They're planning one 729 00:36:56,640 --> 00:36:59,280 Speaker 8: in Pompeach area. And that's going to cost three hundred 730 00:36:59,320 --> 00:37:01,279 Speaker 8: and fifty thousand. 731 00:37:01,760 --> 00:37:04,560 Speaker 1: Caddy for years at Country Club in Rochester, and it'll 732 00:37:04,680 --> 00:37:07,440 Speaker 1: kill honored to caddy there in sixty eight, not for 733 00:37:07,480 --> 00:37:10,960 Speaker 1: the open, the Leech Travino Open. But I can't imagine 734 00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:14,400 Speaker 1: how busy the courses are now. I can't, Paul. I 735 00:37:14,440 --> 00:37:17,399 Speaker 1: can't imagine the pressure on a Saturday and to keep 736 00:37:17,440 --> 00:37:20,120 Speaker 1: it moving. And there's some guy in the green lining 737 00:37:20,239 --> 00:37:23,160 Speaker 1: up ten taking it out Friday. 738 00:37:23,280 --> 00:37:27,240 Speaker 4: Now that nobody works on Fridays. Everybody hybrid works on Friday. 739 00:37:27,440 --> 00:37:30,040 Speaker 4: Packed on Friday. It's kind of like the old days 740 00:37:30,040 --> 00:37:31,920 Speaker 4: when we have like the cars all lined up. 741 00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:34,600 Speaker 1: Anyway, So thanks, I don't know well, Lisa, thank you 742 00:37:34,680 --> 00:37:38,160 Speaker 1: so much. This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you 743 00:37:38,280 --> 00:37:42,880 Speaker 1: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 744 00:37:42,920 --> 00:37:46,239 Speaker 1: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 745 00:37:46,239 --> 00:37:51,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 746 00:37:51,040 --> 00:37:54,080 Speaker 1: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 747 00:37:54,080 --> 00:37:57,960 Speaker 1: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, 748 00:37:58,160 --> 00:38:01,799 Speaker 1: Spotify or anywhere else. Thank you listen and always, I'm 749 00:38:01,800 --> 00:38:06,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. The Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.