WEBVTT - Why the US Military is Preparing for War with China 0:00:00.000 --> 0:00:04.559 All right, Matthew Pines, director of Intelligence at Krebs Stamos, 0:00:04.800 --> 0:00:09.920 so a national security fellow, You're pretty tied in on 0:00:09.960 --> 0:00:13.159 the kind of global techno industrial war that's going on, 0:00:13.240 --> 0:00:18.120 a term that you've kind of used, geopolitical, cyber all that. So, man, 0:00:18.120 --> 0:00:20.000 there's so much we can jump in today. I'm excited 0:00:20.000 --> 0:00:21.040 to have you. Thanks for joining me. 0:00:22.000 --> 0:00:22.799 Yeah, thanks for having me. 0:00:23.000 --> 0:00:25.960 So, you know, I know we had some conversations offline 0:00:26.040 --> 0:00:29.160 kind of talking about this kind of global game of thrones. 0:00:29.440 --> 0:00:31.680 When I was a kid, game my parents played was 0:00:31.680 --> 0:00:33.640 this game of risk, which was like this board game, 0:00:33.680 --> 0:00:36.080 you know, and if you think about it like that, 0:00:36.479 --> 0:00:38.519 we're sort of seeing that where. You know, something I've 0:00:38.560 --> 0:00:40.880 been talking about is this decentralized revolution. Now, the world 0:00:40.920 --> 0:00:43.279 had been moving towards this globalism and kind of one 0:00:43.320 --> 0:00:46.680 world government, you know, centralized world, and now it seems 0:00:46.680 --> 0:00:48.400 to be kind of breaking apart back into whatever you 0:00:48.400 --> 0:00:52.240 want to call it, multipolar world whatever, And that seems 0:00:52.280 --> 0:00:55.160 like there's a lot of things, a lot of interest, 0:00:55.240 --> 0:00:57.200 a lot of things going on there. You kind of 0:00:57.200 --> 0:01:00.760 framed it up in this techno industrial war. I think 0:01:00.840 --> 0:01:03.440 you kind of said there's a lot of arenas inside 0:01:03.480 --> 0:01:03.720 of that. 0:01:03.840 --> 0:01:05.720 So why don't you just frame that up for us first? 0:01:07.120 --> 0:01:10.080 Yes, I mean at the level of great power is 0:01:10.120 --> 0:01:12.960 great power competition, which is the era that we're in. Like, 0:01:13.240 --> 0:01:16.360 competition is over what are the instruments that modern states 0:01:16.400 --> 0:01:19.760 rely on to accrue and project power. And in the 0:01:19.800 --> 0:01:24.039 modern sort of technologically driven civilization, that's basically predicated on 0:01:24.080 --> 0:01:28.160 controlling capital flows, controlling supply chains, and controlling the most 0:01:28.160 --> 0:01:31.640 advanced technologies and the networks that the world system runs on. Right, 0:01:31.680 --> 0:01:35.039 So the world is now a wash in networks, networks 0:01:35.080 --> 0:01:38.039 for finance, right, banking networks, networks for data like the 0:01:38.040 --> 0:01:41.759 Internet that often you know, banking transactions go over as well, 0:01:41.880 --> 0:01:45.679 networks of supply chains, trade relationships, military alliances, and so 0:01:46.000 --> 0:01:49.000 network power is sort of what people are competing over, 0:01:49.160 --> 0:01:51.680 and the dominant networks that determine who is going to 0:01:51.720 --> 0:01:54.160 win or lose in those competition is who has sort 0:01:54.200 --> 0:01:57.880 of the choke point and surveillance control over those networks. 0:01:57.960 --> 0:01:59.680 And that is a sort of an almost an all 0:01:59.760 --> 0:02:01.680 or nine game, right, And so the United States has 0:02:01.680 --> 0:02:05.040 been in a position post war of building a globalized 0:02:05.080 --> 0:02:09.320 system where it had the dominant role in those networks 0:02:09.400 --> 0:02:12.160 it had the keynodes, or it had alliance networks that 0:02:12.200 --> 0:02:14.840 give it access to those keynodes, whether it's surveillance over 0:02:14.840 --> 0:02:17.880 the global Internet, whether it's influence over global trade policy, 0:02:17.919 --> 0:02:20.920 whether it's controlling of global shipping lanes. And that's the 0:02:20.919 --> 0:02:22.960 world's system that we think about kind of the hegemonic 0:02:23.120 --> 0:02:25.480 sort of unipolar era. It's sort of defined by the 0:02:25.560 --> 0:02:29.160 United States control over these critical networks. And so China has, 0:02:29.240 --> 0:02:31.560 you know, embarked on a strategic effort of the past 0:02:31.600 --> 0:02:35.200 twenty you know plus years to either displace those networks 0:02:35.280 --> 0:02:38.320 or to complete and replace it with their own, or 0:02:38.360 --> 0:02:41.480 try to co opt and take over US's or the 0:02:41.520 --> 0:02:45.000 G seven's sort of legacy position in controlling the existing networks. 0:02:45.000 --> 0:02:48.120 That's like the macro frame for the competition we see, 0:02:48.280 --> 0:02:49.799 and you can sort of chunk that into kind of 0:02:49.840 --> 0:02:54.040 the financial dimension, the technology dimension, the military dimension, et cetera. 0:02:54.480 --> 0:02:57.200 Where does the information fit into that dimension? 0:02:58.560 --> 0:03:00.840 I mean that is I mean this kind of a 0:03:00.840 --> 0:03:02.880 cliche to say data is the new oil, but that 0:03:03.040 --> 0:03:06.480 is increasingly a subject of intense geopolitical competition. 0:03:07.160 --> 0:03:10.600 But would you separate data from from information? So when 0:03:10.639 --> 0:03:13.160 I think about like all we're constantly hearing. Well we 0:03:13.160 --> 0:03:14.880 already know to your point, China kind of had their 0:03:14.919 --> 0:03:17.040 own network, so they had the great firewalls. They control 0:03:17.120 --> 0:03:19.280 the information that comes in, so they don't want you know, 0:03:19.320 --> 0:03:22.120 Western social media or Google to influence their people. And 0:03:22.160 --> 0:03:26.160 now today we continue just pounding in our misinformation. Misinformation, uh, 0:03:26.360 --> 0:03:27.960 you know, from the globalist the world that comic for 0:03:28.000 --> 0:03:30.560 them all the way down to the Biden administration misinformation. 0:03:30.639 --> 0:03:34.040 So it seems like the war is about controlling money 0:03:34.080 --> 0:03:35.360 and controlling information. 0:03:35.800 --> 0:03:37.840 Would you put data and information in there together? 0:03:39.560 --> 0:03:43.440 I would say information in the sense of like consumable content. Yeah, 0:03:43.560 --> 0:03:46.480 that human beings can and just understand is a subset 0:03:46.520 --> 0:03:48.480 of all data. Right, So there's lots of packets going 0:03:48.520 --> 0:03:52.080 across the internet, whether it's transactions for you know, just 0:03:52.080 --> 0:03:54.880 sort of stock trades that are not human readable, and 0:03:54.960 --> 0:03:59.240 so yeah, like competition and state interest in controlling say 0:03:59.320 --> 0:04:03.280 another nation, ability to influence what your domestic population is 0:04:03.320 --> 0:04:07.320 consuming as like you know information you know that determines 0:04:07.360 --> 0:04:11.240 their political attitudes, their beliefs about say conflicts, who's responsible 0:04:11.320 --> 0:04:13.400 or who isn't for particular foreign conflict to try to 0:04:13.400 --> 0:04:17.120 shape attitudes and motivations at a domestic level. That's that's 0:04:17.160 --> 0:04:19.440 a capability that a lot of states have always invested 0:04:19.440 --> 0:04:21.760 in and try to say, plant stories in a foreign newspaper, 0:04:21.920 --> 0:04:23.200 but it took a lot of effort. You had to 0:04:23.240 --> 0:04:25.520 like have an intelligence operation to recruit a journalist in 0:04:25.560 --> 0:04:27.919 a foreign country, and you know try to do you know, 0:04:27.920 --> 0:04:31.760 strategic influence operations to shape kind of policymaking or broader 0:04:31.800 --> 0:04:34.520 public perceptions. I think one of what has been accelerated 0:04:34.560 --> 0:04:37.040 with the advent of sort of global platforms for technology 0:04:37.080 --> 0:04:39.560 is that that game is now playing out at a 0:04:39.640 --> 0:04:41.800 much faster scale in a much more fine tuned manner 0:04:41.800 --> 0:04:43.800 where you can you can you can have sort of 0:04:43.880 --> 0:04:48.320 active operations to influence perception across borders. So global platforms, 0:04:48.360 --> 0:04:50.320 both the US based platforms as well as you know 0:04:50.480 --> 0:04:54.320 foreign platforms for social media, for news, et cetera, are 0:04:54.160 --> 0:04:56.800 are pervasive across multiple different jurisdictions. 0:04:56.839 --> 0:04:58.480 And that is that when you're in. 0:04:58.400 --> 0:05:01.279 A global world where you know there warn't as intense 0:05:01.560 --> 0:05:05.120 you know, state rivalries and competition over political influence operations 0:05:05.080 --> 0:05:06.440 and you could kind of like let it simmer in 0:05:06.480 --> 0:05:09.719 the background. Now we have acute tensions of play now 0:05:09.720 --> 0:05:12.440 we have live, you know, issues where states are trying 0:05:12.440 --> 0:05:14.560 to manipulate the ability of you know, other citizens to 0:05:14.560 --> 0:05:17.440 perceive what you know is happening and what views they 0:05:17.440 --> 0:05:17.960 should hold. 0:05:18.279 --> 0:05:19.520 And that is where the. 0:05:19.400 --> 0:05:23.760 Tension between open, free discourse and a civil society starts 0:05:23.760 --> 0:05:27.480 to run up against concerns about say, foreign influence operations 0:05:27.600 --> 0:05:30.600 or deception by say, you know, parties that have control 0:05:30.640 --> 0:05:33.640 over algorithms that aren't that aren't visible to the public. 0:05:33.680 --> 0:05:37.479 That's that's seeing what feeds are generated. And yeah, this 0:05:37.600 --> 0:05:40.360 is a that is a subset like the competition over information, 0:05:42.040 --> 0:05:43.640 and it's really premised on the fact that we now 0:05:43.640 --> 0:05:46.720 live in a global technological civilization that uses these platforms 0:05:46.760 --> 0:05:49.120 to share information on a global scale. 0:05:49.360 --> 0:05:49.880 Yeah. 0:05:50.080 --> 0:05:51.720 Yeah, you know, one thing I talk about all the 0:05:51.760 --> 0:05:54.320 time is kind of these three converging cycles, and it's 0:05:54.360 --> 0:05:56.599 the political cycle, two and three year political cycle, eighty 0:05:56.640 --> 0:05:59.080 year financial cycle, with a fifty year tech cycle. And 0:05:59.120 --> 0:06:01.559 how when you look back history's always technology that changes 0:06:01.560 --> 0:06:04.960 the world the most because it changed the way we organize, communicate, work. 0:06:04.760 --> 0:06:05.200 Et cetera. 0:06:05.680 --> 0:06:08.839 And it's almost like technology is just advancing way faster 0:06:09.000 --> 0:06:12.280 than our civilization or really our political structures have advanced. 0:06:12.600 --> 0:06:15.240 So if you look back to the Industrial Revolution, which 0:06:15.279 --> 0:06:18.080 was obviously a big technological revolution, and it really created 0:06:18.080 --> 0:06:20.680 this centralization and then it led into kind of you 0:06:20.880 --> 0:06:23.440 Henry Ford with the assembly line mass production, and then 0:06:23.440 --> 0:06:25.719 you had mass productions. You had mass amounts of people 0:06:25.720 --> 0:06:28.040 working on the assembly lines, and you had to come 0:06:28.120 --> 0:06:30.719 up with a management structure that managed them. 0:06:30.600 --> 0:06:32.040 All like a cog and a wheel. 0:06:32.360 --> 0:06:33.960 So even though you're way smarter than me, we work 0:06:33.960 --> 0:06:35.279 on the assembly on line next to each other, we 0:06:35.320 --> 0:06:36.960 do the exact same job, and so we come up 0:06:37.000 --> 0:06:39.919 with mass management for managing the masses, and then you 0:06:39.960 --> 0:06:42.159 kind of had this political structure that's set up on 0:06:42.200 --> 0:06:45.800 top of that. But today, now we're in this information world, 0:06:46.080 --> 0:06:48.320 we're no longer in that world, but the political structures 0:06:48.360 --> 0:06:51.880 really haven't changed. It seems like, and I guess these 0:06:51.920 --> 0:06:55.039 types of technologies are really going to try to either 0:06:55.080 --> 0:06:57.039 we're going to force that change or they're going to 0:06:57.040 --> 0:06:57.960 restrict the technologies. 0:06:57.960 --> 0:06:59.120 I guess those are kind of the two options that 0:06:59.120 --> 0:06:59.840 we're running into. 0:07:00.680 --> 0:07:02.839 Yeah, I think you're seeing this tension play out with AIS. 0:07:02.960 --> 0:07:05.039 Like one particular example where the pace of change is 0:07:05.080 --> 0:07:08.960 happening relatively faster than what let's say, the political institutions 0:07:08.960 --> 0:07:12.320 and regulatory bodies can accommodate. And so there's essentially a 0:07:12.360 --> 0:07:16.280 bargaining process that we're witnessing unfold between the political economy 0:07:16.400 --> 0:07:19.560 of the sort of technical private sector actors that are 0:07:19.640 --> 0:07:22.680 leading the development and deployment of these tools and the 0:07:22.760 --> 0:07:26.360 regulators who are facing this challenge of do they let 0:07:26.400 --> 0:07:28.760 it the horse off the leash or do they try 0:07:28.800 --> 0:07:31.800 to harness it without you know, crushing its potential to 0:07:32.440 --> 0:07:33.880 you know, transform their economies. 0:07:33.880 --> 0:07:35.320 And they're they're struggling with that right now. 0:07:35.320 --> 0:07:37.160 And I think this is an age old version of 0:07:37.160 --> 0:07:39.160 an old or new version of an age old question 0:07:39.200 --> 0:07:43.440 of where's the balance between you know, adapting your institutions 0:07:43.480 --> 0:07:45.320 to meet the pace of the of the technology change. 0:07:45.640 --> 0:07:47.800 At what point, though, is the pace of that technology 0:07:47.840 --> 0:07:50.680 change to sort of outstrip the capacity of those institutions 0:07:50.720 --> 0:07:53.640 to reform themselves or adapt over time. 0:07:53.840 --> 0:07:57.000 And not just not just outstrip them of their ability 0:07:57.040 --> 0:08:00.600 to transform, but it sort of makes them all slete 0:08:00.760 --> 0:08:02.920 in a sense where like that structure was set up 0:08:02.920 --> 0:08:05.480 for the time when it was set up, but we're 0:08:05.480 --> 0:08:07.360 not in that time anymore, and that structure doesn't really 0:08:07.400 --> 0:08:08.440 make sense anymore either. 0:08:08.480 --> 0:08:12.880 Maybe well, it's interesting, I think you're seeing a reconfiguration 0:08:13.040 --> 0:08:16.840 or reconceptualization of what sorts of political structures win or 0:08:16.880 --> 0:08:17.320 lose in. 0:08:17.760 --> 0:08:21.600 This sort of maybe in this new world. Right. 0:08:21.600 --> 0:08:23.520 So, China has a certain model of which you might 0:08:23.560 --> 0:08:26.560 call it authoritarianism as a service or sort of techno 0:08:26.600 --> 0:08:30.119 authoritarian governance, where they they're trying to leverage the fact 0:08:30.120 --> 0:08:34.960 that widespread surveillance artificial intelligence tools connecting everyone's activities and 0:08:35.000 --> 0:08:39.040 behaviors into you know, essentially into the state monitoring system 0:08:39.520 --> 0:08:44.120 allows them to more efficiently manage essentially an authoritarian structure 0:08:44.200 --> 0:08:45.800 right where it's a one party state rule. 0:08:46.480 --> 0:08:47.559 And then they're sort of. 0:08:47.480 --> 0:08:49.760 Trying to test that thesis of can you actually have 0:08:49.840 --> 0:08:54.120 central government run a complex society using technology to help, 0:08:54.160 --> 0:08:57.120 you know, mitigate the you know, the legacy kind of 0:08:57.960 --> 0:09:00.760 Hyaki and information problem, right like, can you actually centrally, 0:09:01.559 --> 0:09:04.480 you know, compute all the relevant information that you need 0:09:04.559 --> 0:09:06.720 or to maintain that centralized control. But it is an 0:09:06.720 --> 0:09:09.440 attractive proposition that China is trying to sort of model 0:09:09.440 --> 0:09:10.840 for the rest of the world, is saying, we can 0:09:10.880 --> 0:09:14.200 help bootstrap your economies. You know, into the digital age 0:09:14.520 --> 0:09:18.520 will but will it'll come with these tight control knobs 0:09:18.520 --> 0:09:20.840 that allow to kind of tune to make sure it 0:09:20.840 --> 0:09:23.840 doesn't spit spin out of control. I think in the 0:09:23.840 --> 0:09:26.520 Western system we're struggling with in a different way because 0:09:26.559 --> 0:09:29.480 it does empower, you know, certain elements in the society, 0:09:29.520 --> 0:09:32.400 often at the expense of might say like liberal democracy. Right, 0:09:32.440 --> 0:09:35.640 you get a concentration of data in the hands of 0:09:35.840 --> 0:09:39.120 you know, opaque you know, big tech firms and and 0:09:39.120 --> 0:09:42.720 and government agencies that gives them insight that that the 0:09:42.760 --> 0:09:45.440 public doesn't have necessarily, and so with that comes power, 0:09:45.480 --> 0:09:48.640 with with that, with that asymmetry potentially challenges like the 0:09:48.640 --> 0:09:52.839 premise of kind of you know, the the Detaqueville kind 0:09:52.840 --> 0:09:55.000 of democratic ideal where like, you know, everyone is someone 0:09:55.000 --> 0:09:57.199 on an equal playing field. They can have a participatory 0:09:57.520 --> 0:10:00.840 like a participatory civic discourse you knows, all issues and 0:10:00.840 --> 0:10:03.560 debates in the public square and then vote and you know, 0:10:03.880 --> 0:10:05.959 you know, that's how it goes. But now we might 0:10:06.240 --> 0:10:10.520 be entering air where technology fundamentally, you know, constrains that 0:10:10.600 --> 0:10:14.480 vision of liberal democratic discourse upon which you know, you know, 0:10:14.600 --> 0:10:18.080 our political institutions were we were premised and I guess 0:10:18.120 --> 0:10:20.640 we'll see. I mean, there's other technology forces that you 0:10:20.679 --> 0:10:23.439 know obviously in bitcoin that sort of represent a different trend, right, 0:10:23.760 --> 0:10:26.760 you know, there's technology trans lead to centralization of data 0:10:26.760 --> 0:10:29.280 and access to sort of critical trick points. And there's 0:10:29.280 --> 0:10:32.559 technology trans lead to uh, you know, disegregation decentralization of 0:10:32.600 --> 0:10:35.040 those sorts of notes. And I think that's the battle 0:10:35.040 --> 0:10:37.440 you're seeing in the in the in the sort of 0:10:37.559 --> 0:10:40.920 the the evolution of bitcoin in particular, where where that 0:10:40.920 --> 0:10:43.640 that that debate is playing out in real time. 0:10:44.440 --> 0:10:48.040 Yeah, I want to I want to pull on that 0:10:48.040 --> 0:10:49.400 thread a little bit more. And I know, you know, 0:10:49.480 --> 0:10:51.959 you get into a lot of this stuff, including philosophy, 0:10:52.000 --> 0:10:53.480 so it'd be fun to kind of just game plan this. 0:10:53.520 --> 0:10:55.280 But kind of back to what I was saying, which was, 0:10:56.080 --> 0:10:59.000 you know, if if one form of government, if technology 0:10:59.080 --> 0:11:00.600 caused centralization. 0:11:00.000 --> 0:11:01.200 And which caused the form of government. 0:11:01.200 --> 0:11:03.439 But now we have technology creating the opposite force, which 0:11:03.440 --> 0:11:07.280 is decentralization. So we don't have giant corporations with people 0:11:07.320 --> 0:11:09.000 working them. In the United States, we don't have railroad 0:11:09.000 --> 0:11:10.320 and steel industries anymore, right, So we. 0:11:10.280 --> 0:11:14.319 Don't have these bigger operations. Now we have small, independent people. 0:11:14.040 --> 0:11:18.000 Working all over the world over the internet, right, And 0:11:18.200 --> 0:11:19.719 at the same time, the governments have continued to get 0:11:19.720 --> 0:11:21.760 bigger and bigger and bigger and more powerful, but people 0:11:21.800 --> 0:11:23.719 have got more and more decentralized at the same time. 0:11:23.760 --> 0:11:26.160 So we have like two opposite forces almost where government's 0:11:26.200 --> 0:11:29.200 getting bigger and more centralizing to your point, centralizing all 0:11:29.200 --> 0:11:31.599 these data sources inside hands of corporations, but at the 0:11:31.640 --> 0:11:34.160 same time you have people that are decentralizing and moving 0:11:34.160 --> 0:11:36.240 apart and have all different interests based off of their 0:11:36.280 --> 0:11:39.800 locale that they're in, et cetera. And so I guess 0:11:39.880 --> 0:11:41.679 I kind of asked that question, but do we kind 0:11:41.679 --> 0:11:43.560 of hit a wall and it sort of seems like 0:11:43.600 --> 0:11:45.760 we are. So it seems like the governments want to 0:11:45.800 --> 0:11:49.400 continue the growth trajectory, but then at the same time 0:11:49.679 --> 0:11:55.160 the technology is pushing this decentralized decentralization technology. I guess 0:11:55.200 --> 0:11:58.600 we'll see how that plays out. I don't know, it's 0:11:58.640 --> 0:12:01.040 just it's interesting to watch play out, and there's really 0:12:01.120 --> 0:12:03.400 this power struggle. But jumping back into kind of this 0:12:03.800 --> 0:12:06.280 techno industrial war. So before we kind of dive into that, 0:12:06.320 --> 0:12:08.080 I want to dive in. You've already kind of mentioned 0:12:08.160 --> 0:12:09.600 China's role. So I want to talk about a little 0:12:09.600 --> 0:12:11.480 bit more, but before we do, if we just kind of, 0:12:11.559 --> 0:12:14.600 like again like playing a game of risk, first identifying 0:12:14.679 --> 0:12:16.800 who the players of the board are, right, and so 0:12:16.960 --> 0:12:19.080 then understand that each have their own regions and own 0:12:19.160 --> 0:12:21.920 interest right, So you know, I might look at it 0:12:22.440 --> 0:12:25.560 like we kind of obviously have this war with Russia 0:12:25.640 --> 0:12:28.480 going on right now, which seems to me like is 0:12:28.559 --> 0:12:31.480 kind of like this stand against globalism almost where like 0:12:32.040 --> 0:12:34.599 NATO and the WEF or whatever kind of going after that. 0:12:34.760 --> 0:12:36.920 So you know, but now we have kind of China 0:12:37.000 --> 0:12:39.240 that seems to sort of kind of be partnering with Russia. 0:12:39.320 --> 0:12:42.080 So I don't know if there's like the US potentially 0:12:42.200 --> 0:12:45.280 with you know, euro Davos, NATO, and then we have 0:12:45.480 --> 0:12:48.319 kind of Russia, we have China, and then maybe we 0:12:48.400 --> 0:12:51.160 have like the global South the bricks, and maybe those. 0:12:51.040 --> 0:12:51.800 Are different players. 0:12:51.880 --> 0:12:54.880 But then maybe really Russia China working together, Maybe China 0:12:54.960 --> 0:12:56.240 is just the big goog and maybe it's the US 0:12:56.320 --> 0:12:56.680 and China. 0:12:56.840 --> 0:12:58.360 Like how do you kind of view that game board? 0:12:59.240 --> 0:13:01.520 I mean, it's like complex, and I think there's a 0:13:01.520 --> 0:13:04.160 lot of different frames. I think one useful frame is 0:13:04.480 --> 0:13:07.319 like a simple triangle where the three points of the 0:13:07.400 --> 0:13:12.600 triangle are like credit, commodities, and production, and you look 0:13:12.640 --> 0:13:14.760 at what are the geopolitical power blocks that are sort 0:13:14.760 --> 0:13:17.000 of relatively dominant in each of those, like you know, 0:13:17.480 --> 0:13:19.480 kind of key elements of the global system. 0:13:19.840 --> 0:13:19.960 Right. 0:13:20.040 --> 0:13:22.960 So like credit or money is dominated by G seven, Right, 0:13:23.040 --> 0:13:25.640 it's dominated by by the US, and it's G seven allies. 0:13:26.040 --> 0:13:28.320 You know, those are the largest you know economies. They're 0:13:28.320 --> 0:13:30.080 also you know, the dominant financial centers. 0:13:30.160 --> 0:13:30.280 Right. 0:13:30.520 --> 0:13:33.719 And the influence or the power that that part of 0:13:33.760 --> 0:13:37.480 the triangle deploys is mainly through you know, control over 0:13:37.520 --> 0:13:41.800 the financial system, sanctions, overall global regulation, kind of the 0:13:41.880 --> 0:13:44.280 rule of law that that that defines kind of the 0:13:44.320 --> 0:13:46.920 global system that's been constructed post forty five. 0:13:47.160 --> 0:13:48.839 The other leg of the other sort of point of 0:13:48.880 --> 0:13:51.000 the triangle would be like the commodity point. 0:13:51.200 --> 0:13:54.520 And that's interesting OPEC plus So that's basically Saudi's in Russia, right, 0:13:54.559 --> 0:13:57.080 So that is they're providing the dominant raw inputs into 0:13:57.080 --> 0:13:59.960 the global system, right, oil and you know raw commodit 0:14:00.320 --> 0:14:03.000 for the for the consumption of of the of mostly 0:14:03.080 --> 0:14:05.920 the West. And then you have a production which is 0:14:05.960 --> 0:14:08.240 mostly China, right, And So they're the they're the they're 0:14:08.240 --> 0:14:10.880 the manufacturing engine in the world. They're the largest trade 0:14:10.880 --> 0:14:12.959 partner for almost, you know, the vast majority of of 0:14:13.480 --> 0:14:16.400 of the countries on the planet, and they're increasingly using 0:14:16.440 --> 0:14:19.920 their roles in manufacturing powerhouse to build up their military capacity. 0:14:20.240 --> 0:14:22.120 So each of those kind of three points in the 0:14:22.440 --> 0:14:24.640 sort of global system, when they were kind of in 0:14:24.720 --> 0:14:27.520 frenemy mode, that's how you got globalization. That's how you 0:14:27.640 --> 0:14:30.600 got you know, the post Soviet collapse era sort of 0:14:30.720 --> 0:14:34.040 unipolar hegemonic moment where everyone thought everyone just begintting rich, 0:14:34.440 --> 0:14:37.280 China would join the wto Russia would eventually sort of 0:14:37.320 --> 0:14:39.800 accommodate to more of like a you know, a close 0:14:39.840 --> 0:14:42.840 relationship with Europe as their energy provider. Middle East was 0:14:42.840 --> 0:14:44.040 always going to be maybe a little bit of a 0:14:44.080 --> 0:14:46.960 other problem, but we had the oil supply secured with 0:14:47.120 --> 0:14:49.200 a good close biolot of relationship between the US and 0:14:49.240 --> 0:14:51.800 the Saudi's, and the kind of the world system would 0:14:51.880 --> 0:14:53.720 just kind of churn along. And I think what we're 0:14:53.760 --> 0:14:56.160 seeing in the past few years is that that that 0:14:56.320 --> 0:14:58.800 frenemy mode relationship between those points of the system is 0:14:58.880 --> 0:15:00.760 sort of starting to break down, right Obviously, the the 0:15:02.160 --> 0:15:05.800 Ukraine War is a good example of where like the 0:15:06.240 --> 0:15:10.880 relationship between G seven capital and OPEK plus specifically Russia 0:15:11.240 --> 0:15:13.920 is broken, right, Like that's the sanctions, that is the 0:15:14.400 --> 0:15:18.920 export restrictions, that's the oil price cap, et cetera. On 0:15:19.000 --> 0:15:21.320 the other leg, between SA G seven and China, you're 0:15:21.320 --> 0:15:24.160 seeing you know, not as an extreme breakdown is between 0:15:24.960 --> 0:15:27.480 Russia and the G seven over Ukraine, but you're seeing 0:15:27.560 --> 0:15:32.040 increasing tension export controls, technology restrictions on China. We had 0:15:32.080 --> 0:15:34.960 the trade war under Trump, the increasing you know, concerns 0:15:35.000 --> 0:15:39.880 and anxiety over Taiwan invasion scenarios, quote unquote decoupling or 0:15:39.920 --> 0:15:44.120 de risking among major multinationals about their approach to China 0:15:44.120 --> 0:15:46.520 as a base of manufacturing operations. 0:15:46.080 --> 0:15:46.520 Et cetera. 0:15:46.760 --> 0:15:48.600 So that is like how I would views like the 0:15:48.680 --> 0:15:53.880 main global players is like you know, money, commodities and production. 0:15:54.560 --> 0:15:56.400 And then of course on top of all that, right, 0:15:56.480 --> 0:15:57.080 you have like the. 0:15:57.360 --> 0:16:02.680 Syncratic kind of i'd say, like structure that has developed 0:16:02.720 --> 0:16:06.520 in terms of uh, like just just money itself. Right, 0:16:06.560 --> 0:16:08.560 there's the G seven as like a power structure that's 0:16:08.560 --> 0:16:12.400 defined by like formal government institutions. But you've also had 0:16:12.880 --> 0:16:16.520 just so much wealth generated in non government spaces that 0:16:16.640 --> 0:16:18.840 that has now and I think an increasingly relevant like 0:16:18.840 --> 0:16:22.440 geopolitical effect. But those those that money doesn't really to 0:16:22.600 --> 0:16:26.000 first order, like carry a flag, right like Chinese oligarchs 0:16:26.200 --> 0:16:29.280 and Russian oligarchs and Saudi oligarchs and oligarchs of any 0:16:29.400 --> 0:16:33.720 other stripe around the world like to first order their oligarchs, 0:16:34.160 --> 0:16:36.520 and they can be compelled or coerced by their respective 0:16:36.560 --> 0:16:39.520 flags to you know, maybe seeing the patriotic tune when 0:16:39.560 --> 0:16:42.320 push comes to show. But ultimately their their actions in 0:16:42.360 --> 0:16:44.560 the global system are the fact that they control massive 0:16:44.560 --> 0:16:47.280 amounts of capital and their first order, you know, motivation 0:16:47.360 --> 0:16:50.160 is to protect that capital and influence whatever jurisdiction that 0:16:50.240 --> 0:16:52.840 capital's in to protect their interests. And so that that 0:16:53.160 --> 0:16:56.480 that can involve, you know, corrupting Western democracies, it can involve, 0:16:57.240 --> 0:16:59.360 you know, doing other things in the global system that 0:16:59.680 --> 0:17:03.600 that oftentimes don't directly align with you know, the state 0:17:03.680 --> 0:17:06.800 capital and their geopolitical progress. But that that's like a 0:17:06.880 --> 0:17:09.960 new wrinkle between the basic structure of kind of money 0:17:10.000 --> 0:17:12.720 production and commodities. And now you just have a huge 0:17:12.760 --> 0:17:15.800 amount of private wealth and it's and it now has 0:17:16.200 --> 0:17:17.480 a lot of influence, but it. 0:17:17.480 --> 0:17:20.240 Kind of fits within these three roles that you said, credit, money, commodities, 0:17:20.280 --> 0:17:23.000 or production, and so most of that wealth that these 0:17:23.000 --> 0:17:25.040 ol of our control would actually fit under one of 0:17:25.040 --> 0:17:27.720 those buckets, under commodities or under production to your point, right, 0:17:27.800 --> 0:17:30.600 if Chinese holigarchs it fits under production, Russian holigarcs it 0:17:30.640 --> 0:17:32.280 fits under commodities kind of a thing, right, so you 0:17:32.359 --> 0:17:36.360 could still and then US holigarks it fits under finance exactly. 0:17:36.520 --> 0:17:36.720 Yeah. 0:17:36.800 --> 0:17:39.639 And I think one of the tensions you're seeing is, like, 0:17:39.760 --> 0:17:42.600 just to take one example, as the Chinese, like the 0:17:42.680 --> 0:17:45.720 US China relationship and the political economy inside the United 0:17:45.760 --> 0:17:47.840 States of what sort of stance the United States should 0:17:47.840 --> 0:17:52.560 take towards China, as you know, their growing strategic challenge 0:17:52.760 --> 0:17:55.560 is becoming more acute, and from like the perspective of 0:17:55.640 --> 0:17:58.600 those inside the Washington d C that represent the Defense Department, 0:17:58.640 --> 0:18:01.479 the intelligence community, kind of the political collaboratus, the Treasury Department. 0:18:02.440 --> 0:18:05.520 You know, it's all about preparing to you know, meet 0:18:05.600 --> 0:18:09.320 this threat. It's it's more of an antagonistic aggressive posture. 0:18:09.440 --> 0:18:13.879 Technology controls, export controls, et cetera. If you're a venture 0:18:13.960 --> 0:18:17.920 capital or private equity or Wall Street manager. Right, your 0:18:18.200 --> 0:18:20.879 your first order concern is I gotta I want to 0:18:20.960 --> 0:18:23.399 keep you know, growing my my P and L. I 0:18:23.480 --> 0:18:26.320 want to keep selling into this market. And you don't 0:18:26.359 --> 0:18:29.119 necessarily want to break this trade relationship. You don't want 0:18:29.160 --> 0:18:31.959 to break the bioloedical capital flows you're getting. You've been 0:18:32.119 --> 0:18:35.080 you've been riding on this hog of globalization and Chinese 0:18:35.400 --> 0:18:39.560 sort of asset recycling into Chinese surplus recycling into Western 0:18:39.600 --> 0:18:42.320 assets that has really benefited uh, you. 0:18:42.320 --> 0:18:43.920 Know, essentially Silicon Valley and Wall Street. 0:18:45.280 --> 0:18:47.760 And now we're seeing this, you know, this tension play 0:18:47.760 --> 0:18:50.240 out between the interests of that part of the political 0:18:50.240 --> 0:18:53.160 economy the United States and the national security interests coming 0:18:53.200 --> 0:18:55.440 out of d C. And that that is a that 0:18:55.560 --> 0:18:57.480