WEBVTT - Here's Why Gerrymandering Failed in the US Midterms

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts.

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<v Speaker 2>Radio. News. I'm Stephen Carroll and this is Here's Why,

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<v Speaker 2>where we take one news story and explain it in

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<v Speaker 2>just a few minutes with our experts here at Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 3>In many cases, the Republicans' attempt to redistrict has backfired.

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<v Speaker 1>A gerrymander, we understand what that is. A dummymander is

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<v Speaker 1>the party punching themselves in the face. Republicans sowed the

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<v Speaker 1>seeds of their own demise in Texas. They started this

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<v Speaker 1>redistricting war. And some of the efforts to gerrymander districts

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<v Speaker 1>that are just clearly backfiring against Republicans all night. This

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<v Speaker 1>is a bloodbath of a night. There's no getting around it.

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<v Speaker 2>The battle lines for this year's midterms were drawn long

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<v Speaker 2>in advance of polling day. For more than a year,

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<v Speaker 2>Republicans in states from Florida to Texas were moving the

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<v Speaker 2>boundaries of congressional districts with the goal of bolstering the

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<v Speaker 2>party's support. Democrats in California also adopted a more partisan

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<v Speaker 2>electoral map.

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<v Speaker 1>But amidst the blue wave, the Republican efforts largely failed

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<v Speaker 1>to deliver.

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<v Speaker 2>Democrats won several of the districts that Republicans had redrawn

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<v Speaker 2>to keep them out.

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<v Speaker 1>Here's why gerrymandering failed.

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<v Speaker 2>In the US midterms. Bloomberg Opinion columnist Mary Ellen Klass

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<v Speaker 2>joins us now for more. Mary Ellen, redrawing electoral districts

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<v Speaker 2>is a fraught process in many parts of the world,

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<v Speaker 2>but what's the history of it in the US?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, it is based on the idea that every voter

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<v Speaker 3>gets one vote and representation is based on fair and

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<v Speaker 3>equal distribution of votes. So every 10 years in the

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<v Speaker 3>United States, individual states are required to redistribute their votes

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<v Speaker 3>based on the census numbers and equalize representation. The way

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<v Speaker 3>we got to where we are now with partisan infighting

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<v Speaker 3>and manipulation of maps is that parties have figured out

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<v Speaker 3>ways to use both data and technology to draw districts

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<v Speaker 3>in a way that pack voters of their party into

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<v Speaker 3>districts and crack apart communities that have many people that

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<v Speaker 3>don't vote for them. And they try to tip the

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<v Speaker 3>scales by drawing these districts very unfairly so that they

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<v Speaker 3>have the advantage.

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<v Speaker 2>So to what extent did that happen in the run-up

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<v Speaker 2>to the midterms? How many districts could we say were gerrymandered?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, the race to redistrict all began when President Trump

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<v Speaker 3>pressured states to redistrict in the middle of a decade.

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<v Speaker 3>This has really never happened before. Usually it's just every

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<v Speaker 3>10 years, but he realized that the midterms were not

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<v Speaker 3>going to be favorable for him, and he wanted to

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<v Speaker 3>protect his majority in the House. So eight Republican-led states

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<v Speaker 3>agreed to help him out, and then California and Virginia

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<v Speaker 3>decided they were going to try and redistrict to counter

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<v Speaker 3>the efforts of those states. In the end, there were

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<v Speaker 3>about 15 districts that wouldn't have been leaning Republican before

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<v Speaker 3>the midterms, and four in California.

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<v Speaker 2>But the results didn't exactly go as the parties had planned.

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<v Speaker 2>What went wrong with the Republican strategy in particular?

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<v Speaker 3>Yes, the results didn't go well. And part of it

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<v Speaker 3>began with the idea that when Republicans went searching for voters,

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<v Speaker 3>they used data that showed people that might have voted

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<v Speaker 3>for the president in the 2024 elections. But since the

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<v Speaker 3>24 election, as you know, voters have abandoned the president

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<v Speaker 3>in droves. His approval rating has dropped to less than 30%.

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<v Speaker 3>Voters are angry and frustrated with Republicans that have been

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<v Speaker 3>compliant and allowed much of his agenda and not been

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<v Speaker 3>a check on him. So they voted with Democrats. And

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<v Speaker 3>in all but probably two of the Republican districts, They failed.

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<v Speaker 3>They were unable to turn it around. And the onslaught

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<v Speaker 3>was so dramatic that, as you know, we have now

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<v Speaker 3>turned both the House and the Senate in Congress Democrat dominated.

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<v Speaker 2>It felt like so much of the conversation running up

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<v Speaker 2>to the midterms was on issues like affordability. How much

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<v Speaker 2>was this redistricting actually discussed in the run up to

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<v Speaker 2>the elections? How big an issue was it for voters?

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<v Speaker 3>You know, when it first began in the summer of 2025,

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<v Speaker 3>there was a lot of attention paid to it. And

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<v Speaker 3>polls showed that about three in four voters were not

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<v Speaker 3>happy with this push to redistrict the states. And they

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<v Speaker 3>opposed gerrymandering, you know, for partisan advantage generally. But I

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<v Speaker 3>don't think that this became a priority issue for many voters.

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<v Speaker 3>I think it just kind of added to the mix

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<v Speaker 3>of issues that influenced their displeasure with the status quo

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<v Speaker 3>and Republicans, because I think that they realized that they

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<v Speaker 3>were trying to rig the game for their advantage. And

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<v Speaker 3>that just kind of fed into the displeasure with the economy,

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<v Speaker 3>the frustration over the president's corruption, the idea that there

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<v Speaker 3>is that he wasn't following through on his promises.

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<v Speaker 2>Will the parties have learned lessons from this experience? Is

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<v Speaker 2>there going to be less of a desire to try

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<v Speaker 2>and carry out this sort of redistricting in the future?

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<v Speaker 3>You know, that's a good question. I think the parties

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<v Speaker 3>should have learned that these efforts to flip districts have flopped.

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<v Speaker 3>The public doesn't like gerrymandering. It leads to bad government.

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<v Speaker 3>But the unfortunate thing is, I don't think it will end.

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<v Speaker 3>It's because parties think it's easier for them to choose

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<v Speaker 3>their voters than to have to choose their representatives. Now,

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<v Speaker 3>we may see more mid-decade redistricting before the 2028 presidential elections.

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<v Speaker 3>It's very possible that both parties try to manipulate the advantage.

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<v Speaker 3>It's possible that Democrats try to reverse what Republicans have

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<v Speaker 3>done and those in Republican states tried to capitalize on

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<v Speaker 3>their advantage. I hope it's not the case, but there

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<v Speaker 3>is legislation in Congress that began when Democrats had a

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<v Speaker 3>majority in the House and that they could ban this.

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<v Speaker 3>We'll see if that happens.

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<v Speaker 2>Where is the conversation now on this activity of redistricting

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<v Speaker 2>or gerrymandering? Is there going to be a renewed push

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<v Speaker 2>then to try and perhaps clamp down on it, given

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<v Speaker 2>the potential damage it can cause?

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<v Speaker 3>You know, I hope that is part of the discussion.

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<v Speaker 3>I think we are in a unique time where reform

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<v Speaker 3>is going to be a debate. There's going to be

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<v Speaker 3>a debate about how to make government better and how

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<v Speaker 3>to establish more guardrails when we have an out of

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<v Speaker 3>control executive. Gerrymandering districts to make them safe for either

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<v Speaker 3>Democrats or Republicans end up in electing people who favor

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<v Speaker 3>hyper-partisan candidates, They appeal to party extreme. That leads to

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<v Speaker 3>candidates who don't want to compromise. It leads to gridlock.

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<v Speaker 3>And it also results in getting less done. So I

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<v Speaker 3>think that as part of a reform framework, I think

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<v Speaker 3>redistricting will be part of the agenda. We do need

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<v Speaker 3>redistricting reform in this country. I hope that it happens.

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<v Speaker 3>And we at Bloomberg will continue to be writing about

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<v Speaker 3>the implications of it.

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<v Speaker 2>And we'll be watching it closely as well. Mary Ellen Klass,

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Opinion columnist, thank you very much. And you can

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<v Speaker 2>read Mary Ellen's latest writing at Bloomberg.com forward slash opinion.

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<v Speaker 2>For more explanations like this from our team of 3000

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<v Speaker 2>journalists and analysts around the world, go to Bloomberg.com slash explainers.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Stephen Carroll. This is Here's Why. I'll be back

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<v Speaker 1>next week with more. Thanks for listening.