WEBVTT - $100K Bitcoin: 300-Year Pattern Predicts What’s Next 0:00:00.160 --> 0:00:03.800 Bitcoin just hit one hundred thousand, and now it's pulling back. 0:00:04.040 --> 0:00:06.720 So is this the moment that everyone's been waiting for 0:00:07.160 --> 0:00:09.800 or the one they've been fearing? But what if I 0:00:09.880 --> 0:00:11.800 told you it's totally different. What if I told you 0:00:11.840 --> 0:00:14.960 this isn't just another milestone, It's actually part of a 0:00:15.120 --> 0:00:19.840 three hundred year pattern that predicts exactly what happens next. Now, 0:00:19.880 --> 0:00:23.160 for the last three centuries, this pattern has repeated itself 0:00:23.400 --> 0:00:28.319 five times, reshaping technology, wealth, and even the world. Now 0:00:28.360 --> 0:00:31.360 bitcoin is following the same blueprint. But what it means 0:00:31.360 --> 0:00:34.640 for the future is where things get truly shocking. So 0:00:34.720 --> 0:00:37.360 in this video, I'm gonna break down this three hundred 0:00:37.440 --> 0:00:39.880 year pattern. I'm gonna show you what it reveals about 0:00:39.920 --> 0:00:43.279 bitcoin's next move and why this moment could define the 0:00:43.320 --> 0:00:46.559 future of wealth creation, and give us a playbook for 0:00:46.640 --> 0:00:49.600 how to navigate all of this. My name is Mark Moss. 0:00:49.600 --> 0:00:52.479 I've been making videos on bitcoin for about eight years. 0:00:52.600 --> 0:00:55.920 I coached thousands of investors on investing. I'm a partner 0:00:55.920 --> 0:00:58.680 of a leading bitcoin venture capital fund called the Bitcoin 0:00:58.680 --> 0:01:02.040 Opportunity Fund on the cvo of Matador, a new public 0:01:02.120 --> 0:01:05.240 bitcoin company, and these models are what we use as 0:01:05.280 --> 0:01:08.520 our guides, So stick around because what happens next might 0:01:08.600 --> 0:01:12.120 surprise you and could even change everything. So let's go 0:01:14.319 --> 0:01:16.440 all right, So we're gonna jump right into this and 0:01:16.520 --> 0:01:20.360 we're gonna show you, using historical models where bitcoin goes 0:01:20.560 --> 0:01:23.520 well into the future. So the first thing is has 0:01:23.560 --> 0:01:26.760 bitcoin hit the ceiling or is this a new floor? 0:01:26.880 --> 0:01:30.080 Now we hit one hundred thousand dollars and yes, it 0:01:30.120 --> 0:01:32.280 has been pulling back at the time this recording depends 0:01:32.280 --> 0:01:34.920 on when you're watching this, So is this a by 0:01:35.000 --> 0:01:37.520 the dip moment or is it sell it short before 0:01:37.560 --> 0:01:40.040 it goes out? Is one hundred thousand the top? And 0:01:40.160 --> 0:01:42.360 really where does it go? Now? We have to understand 0:01:42.480 --> 0:01:46.640 that when prices are going up, there's psychological levels. So 0:01:46.680 --> 0:01:50.120 when bitcoin hit a thousand, that was a psychological level. 0:01:50.280 --> 0:01:52.360 When it got to ten thousand, it was a level, 0:01:52.640 --> 0:01:55.160 and now at one hundred thousand, it's a level. So 0:01:55.200 --> 0:01:57.280 we want to know where does it go from here? 0:01:57.440 --> 0:02:00.560 Is it too late, is it too expensive? Or are 0:02:00.600 --> 0:02:03.320 we going much higher much faster. Well, there's a couple 0:02:03.360 --> 0:02:05.240 of things we want to look at. So first of all, 0:02:05.280 --> 0:02:07.600 as I said, right, depending on when you're watching this, 0:02:08.040 --> 0:02:11.000 the price of bitcoin is pulling back from that level, 0:02:11.360 --> 0:02:13.680 the psychological level of one hundred thousand. But I want 0:02:13.720 --> 0:02:16.400 to show right we sat at this level. You have 0:02:16.440 --> 0:02:20.560 to understand things move up and down, and now we're 0:02:20.600 --> 0:02:23.440 in that same sort of a range. But remember this 0:02:23.480 --> 0:02:26.320 is a psychological level, and then we'll use history to 0:02:26.360 --> 0:02:28.640 see where we go. And one of the things that's 0:02:28.680 --> 0:02:32.120 happening from the psychological level is Bloomberg, which makes the 0:02:32.160 --> 0:02:35.320 Bloomberg terminal. You see me using charts from Bloomberg terminal 0:02:35.360 --> 0:02:38.000 all the time. It's about twenty to thirty thousand a 0:02:38.160 --> 0:02:40.799 month for a subscription to it to pull charts. This 0:02:40.840 --> 0:02:42.680 is where I mean, if you're can afford thirty thousand 0:02:42.680 --> 0:02:45.520 a month, this is where the institutional allocators play. And 0:02:45.600 --> 0:02:48.640 you can see in the Bloomberg terminal it now shows 0:02:48.639 --> 0:02:52.080 the bitcoin price as a percentage of one million, so 0:02:52.120 --> 0:02:55.960 it's no longer showing eighty thousand or one hundred thousand, 0:02:56.000 --> 0:02:59.639 it's now showing it as zero point one million. Of 0:02:59.680 --> 0:03:01.600 the reason why this is important is because what's known 0:03:01.639 --> 0:03:04.080 as unit bias. So a lot of people think that 0:03:04.120 --> 0:03:07.200 bitcoin's too expensive, so I'll buy something cheaper like those 0:03:07.240 --> 0:03:10.240 coin for example. The unit bias makes them think that 0:03:10.240 --> 0:03:13.119 they should buy something cheaper. But now the unit bias 0:03:13.120 --> 0:03:17.560 of allocators, institutional allocators now shows it as a fraction 0:03:17.760 --> 0:03:20.120 of one million. What do you think that does to 0:03:20.160 --> 0:03:24.520 the psychological level of these institutional allocators. The reason why 0:03:24.560 --> 0:03:26.880 I point at that for a second is because a 0:03:26.880 --> 0:03:29.560 lot of times when we're looking at macroeconomic pictures, we're 0:03:29.560 --> 0:03:32.320 looking at what central bankers and policies will do. You 0:03:32.440 --> 0:03:34.560 can't just look at the data. This is the gripe 0:03:34.600 --> 0:03:36.200 that I have with a lot of the people that 0:03:36.240 --> 0:03:37.880 are on YouTube, that I'm friends with, I speak at 0:03:37.880 --> 0:03:40.400 conferences with that are very very smart, some of them 0:03:40.440 --> 0:03:43.080 smarter than me, But they take out they don't take 0:03:43.120 --> 0:03:48.000 into account the psychological level, the psychological reasons behind these. 0:03:48.000 --> 0:03:49.920 They look at the data only, and you miss out 0:03:49.920 --> 0:03:53.760 a big piece. Now, another big psychological piece that we 0:03:53.760 --> 0:03:56.520 can talk about is Trump, who now wants to be 0:03:56.680 --> 0:03:58.720 the bitcoin president. As a matter of fact, he tweeted 0:03:58.760 --> 0:04:01.840 out congratulates in bitcoin on this one hundred thousand dollars level. 0:04:02.000 --> 0:04:05.320 He said, you're welcome. So think about this from a 0:04:05.360 --> 0:04:09.760 psychological level. Trump has now taken credit for the price 0:04:09.800 --> 0:04:11.880 hitting that level. I don't give him credit for it, 0:04:11.960 --> 0:04:14.960 but he's taking credit for it. So now psychologically he 0:04:15.040 --> 0:04:17.880 doesn't want to let that fall. He wants bitcoin to 0:04:17.880 --> 0:04:21.760 be his legacy making America great again. So where does 0:04:21.880 --> 0:04:25.480 that take bitcoin? How do we put that into account? Now? 0:04:25.520 --> 0:04:26.920 The last thing I want to say before I jump 0:04:26.920 --> 0:04:28.920 in and show you the historical model that's been hit 0:04:28.960 --> 0:04:31.960 three hundred times five times. Before I say that, I 0:04:32.040 --> 0:04:33.960 want to just say one more thing about union bias, 0:04:34.000 --> 0:04:36.240 and that is, if you think about bitcoin hitting one 0:04:36.279 --> 0:04:39.160 hundred thousand or whatever, it's ninety five thousand today, is 0:04:39.200 --> 0:04:41.919 it too late? And the question I would ask is 0:04:41.920 --> 0:04:45.480 the problem that most amateur what we call the dumb money. 0:04:45.480 --> 0:04:47.720 There's the smart money, which is institution allocators. There's a 0:04:47.760 --> 0:04:49.920 dumb money, which includes you and I. What the dumb 0:04:49.920 --> 0:04:52.960 money gets wrong is that most of those are looking 0:04:53.040 --> 0:04:55.560 in the rear view mirror. So what do I mean 0:04:55.560 --> 0:04:57.640 by that. Let's just use real estate for an example. 0:04:57.720 --> 0:05:00.599 You know my real estate background. A lot of people 0:05:00.640 --> 0:05:02.640 that I worked with, invested with, even my family had 0:05:02.640 --> 0:05:05.400 bought a lot of properties in Florida going into the 0:05:05.440 --> 0:05:07.720 twenty two thousand and five six two thousand and seven, 0:05:07.760 --> 0:05:10.160 when the real estate market was taking off, of course, 0:05:10.200 --> 0:05:12.599 that real estate market crash and the great financial crash 0:05:12.600 --> 0:05:15.720 of two thousand and eight. The bottom of that market 0:05:15.839 --> 0:05:18.920 happened around twenty eleven twenty twelve for most of most 0:05:18.960 --> 0:05:21.560 of the US, so the bottom was set in which 0:05:21.640 --> 0:05:24.080 was way cheaper than where it had been in two 0:05:24.120 --> 0:05:26.679 thousand and five, two thousand and six, two thousand and seven, 0:05:26.880 --> 0:05:29.360 So twenty twelve was the bottom, and then the price 0:05:29.360 --> 0:05:33.640 started going back up again. By two fourteen, twenty fifteen, 0:05:33.720 --> 0:05:35.960 Florida had started getting pretty good again. The prices were 0:05:35.960 --> 0:05:38.360 pretty high, and a lot of investors, real estate investors 0:05:38.400 --> 0:05:40.640 at the time, were saying, oh no, it's way too expensive. 0:05:40.680 --> 0:05:44.040 It's way too expensive. And I said too expensive compared 0:05:44.040 --> 0:05:46.920 to what right our brains are comparing mechanisms. They were 0:05:46.960 --> 0:05:49.760 looking in the rear view. Well, it was too expensive. 0:05:49.800 --> 0:05:51.839 It was way more expensive than it was in twenty 0:05:51.880 --> 0:05:55.000 twelve at the very bottom. It wasn't more expensive from 0:05:55.040 --> 0:05:56.719 where it was in two thousand and eight at the peak, 0:05:56.960 --> 0:06:00.320 and it certainly wasn't expensive compared to where it was 0:06:00.440 --> 0:06:04.400 going as in like twenty twenty, twenty twenty one. But 0:06:04.560 --> 0:06:07.640 it was too expensive compared to where it was. They 0:06:07.680 --> 0:06:09.920 were looking in the rearview mirror. That's what a lot 0:06:09.960 --> 0:06:12.760 of people get wrong about bitcoin. It's too expensive because 0:06:12.800 --> 0:06:14.599 it used to be ten cents or thirty cents or 0:06:14.640 --> 0:06:17.279 one thousand or ten thousand or fifty thousand, and now 0:06:17.360 --> 0:06:19.480 it's one hundred thousand. You're looking in the rearview. What 0:06:19.520 --> 0:06:20.919 we want to do is we want to look in 0:06:20.960 --> 0:06:23.279 the windshields. You should be driving in the windshield now, 0:06:23.320 --> 0:06:26.479 in your rearview. This is what venture capital investors do. 0:06:26.520 --> 0:06:28.239 This is what we do in my venture capital fund. 0:06:28.640 --> 0:06:31.799 We look at a brand new company, it's just starting, 0:06:31.880 --> 0:06:34.640 maybe no revenues yet, and we try to think, in 0:06:34.680 --> 0:06:37.800 the windshield, where will this be? How much could it 0:06:37.800 --> 0:06:39.719 be in the future. We don't go, well, you just started, 0:06:39.800 --> 0:06:42.320 it's worth nothing, so it's too expensive now. No, we're 0:06:42.320 --> 0:06:44.880 looking at a forward looking and so let me show 0:06:44.920 --> 0:06:47.960 you how we can use history to then project forward. Okay, 0:06:48.000 --> 0:06:49.440 So the first thing we'll do is we'll go backwards 0:06:49.440 --> 0:06:51.880 in history. Then we'll go forward into the windshield. Okay, 0:06:52.040 --> 0:06:55.400 so three hundred years of data. It's pretty good. It's 0:06:55.440 --> 0:06:57.640 pretty comprehensive. As a matter of fact, if you think 0:06:57.640 --> 0:07:00.960 about it, and if we think about things in terms 0:07:00.960 --> 0:07:02.720 of cycles, which I use a lot of, and when 0:07:02.720 --> 0:07:05.760 you think in terms of technical analysis, we have things 0:07:05.800 --> 0:07:08.880 that what we'd call maybe a triple top before breakout, 0:07:09.240 --> 0:07:11.960 or sometimes there's a triple bottom before it falls down. 0:07:12.160 --> 0:07:15.160 And what happens is each time it tests that level, 0:07:15.360 --> 0:07:18.720 it builds up strength, It builds up energy for a 0:07:18.720 --> 0:07:21.840 bigger move. Now, what happens is as it continues to 0:07:21.880 --> 0:07:25.600 test and retest and retest, it builds confidence that will happen. 0:07:25.800 --> 0:07:27.720 Let me give you an example. So most of you, 0:07:27.760 --> 0:07:30.239 if you're watching this video, you probably already know about bitcoin. 0:07:30.320 --> 0:07:33.280 You know that every four years there's a having cycle, 0:07:33.520 --> 0:07:36.000 so that means the new supply bitcoin being added gets 0:07:36.000 --> 0:07:38.840 cut in half every four years. Now, you can see 0:07:38.840 --> 0:07:41.920 that we've had four of these having cycles so far, 0:07:42.200 --> 0:07:44.640 the first Having cycle, second, third, fourth, and you can 0:07:44.680 --> 0:07:48.120 see that each one leads to a big move up 0:07:49.120 --> 0:07:51.480 because it's a supply shock, supply and demand. You cut 0:07:51.480 --> 0:07:54.280 the supply in half, the price moves up. Now I 0:07:54.280 --> 0:07:56.320 think there's something deeper. I think it has to do 0:07:56.360 --> 0:07:59.000 with global liquidity cycles. We're not going to get into 0:07:59.000 --> 0:08:01.200 that right now. Another video on that leave me a 0:08:01.240 --> 0:08:04.120 comment down below, But about each every four years, the 0:08:04.120 --> 0:08:07.120 supply gets cut in half, the price moves up. This 0:08:07.520 --> 0:08:12.560 pattern has basically repeated every Having cycle now for four times. 0:08:12.720 --> 0:08:14.400 When I ask people, do you think it's gonna happen 0:08:14.440 --> 0:08:16.880 again a fifth time, most people would say yes, it's 0:08:16.880 --> 0:08:20.200 happened four times, almost identical. Why wouldn't it continue to 0:08:20.240 --> 0:08:22.520 happen on the fifth time? Okay, So that means there's 0:08:22.600 --> 0:08:25.080 four times. That means the confidence of it happened at 0:08:25.080 --> 0:08:27.360 fifth time is higher. Now if it happens ten times, 0:08:27.480 --> 0:08:30.840 the confidence that happened another time is even higher. Right, Okay, 0:08:31.040 --> 0:08:33.160 So let's take a look at this cycle that's happened 0:08:33.400 --> 0:08:36.760 five times, and we're on our sixth time right now, 0:08:36.920 --> 0:08:38.880 and you might say, well, there's pretty good chance it 0:08:38.960 --> 0:08:42.120 repeats again, and I would say yes. So about every 0:08:42.240 --> 0:08:45.160 fifty years, we have what I call this quantum leap, 0:08:45.480 --> 0:08:48.400 this technological cycle that happens where the world moves in 0:08:48.440 --> 0:08:54.160 this quantum leap. It's happened one, two, three, four, five times, 0:08:54.679 --> 0:08:57.880 and it's now happening. It's six times more than the 0:08:57.880 --> 0:09:02.000 Bitcoin Having cycle, and it's played out almost identical every 0:09:02.040 --> 0:09:04.680 single time. And the beauty is that we can use 0:09:04.720 --> 0:09:08.679 this historical cycle. So then overlay into the technology cycle 0:09:08.679 --> 0:09:11.240 that we're having today. Now, one important piece is not 0:09:11.280 --> 0:09:14.280 just about bitcoin. It's what I'm calling the decentralized revolution. 0:09:14.559 --> 0:09:17.719 So it's a cluster of technology, several technologies that come 0:09:17.760 --> 0:09:19.960 together to give us a new set of building blocks. 0:09:20.080 --> 0:09:24.600 So we have bitcoin, we have AI, we have quantum computing. 0:09:24.840 --> 0:09:28.040 All of that coming together could give us a new 0:09:28.080 --> 0:09:30.800 set of building blocks. So now we're on the sixth one. 0:09:30.840 --> 0:09:33.240 That's happened, all right, So let's take a look at 0:09:33.400 --> 0:09:37.040 what this pattern is that unfolds and how repeatable, how 0:09:37.080 --> 0:09:40.000 reliable this pattern is. So we have to understand that 0:09:40.040 --> 0:09:44.040 there's four different phases inside of this fifty year cycle. 0:09:44.080 --> 0:09:46.720 Now it's not exactly fifty years. It could be forty, 0:09:46.760 --> 0:09:49.160 it could be seventy, but it's around that range. And 0:09:49.200 --> 0:09:52.080 we know there's four phases into that. Now it sort 0:09:52.120 --> 0:09:56.000 of looks like this. There's two stages and there's four periods. 0:09:56.040 --> 0:09:59.199 And this is another term in technology, we'd call this diffusion. 0:09:59.360 --> 0:10:02.720 So long for this technology to reach adoption, so we 0:10:02.840 --> 0:10:05.559 have what's known as the big bang, and it goes 0:10:05.600 --> 0:10:09.080 into the eruption phase is where this new technology storms 0:10:09.080 --> 0:10:11.240 the scene. So to speak erupts. Then we have the 0:10:11.280 --> 0:10:14.320 frenzy phase. Then we have what's called the synergy phase, 0:10:14.400 --> 0:10:16.800 and then finally the maturity phase. Now it's important to 0:10:16.800 --> 0:10:20.520 note that it takes over where one cycle is ending 0:10:21.280 --> 0:10:25.480 the next one is beginning. So personal computers, telecom Internet 0:10:25.800 --> 0:10:28.160 was the last cycle, the last fifty year cycle. I'm 0:10:28.160 --> 0:10:29.760 going to show you more about that in a minute. 0:10:30.040 --> 0:10:33.880 And what happened is that Internet, all of that started failing, 0:10:33.880 --> 0:10:36.080 They started getting to centralized starts falling apart. So we 0:10:36.120 --> 0:10:38.200 have the birth of a news system that will take 0:10:38.280 --> 0:10:41.679 over that energy. But there's the eruption frenzy. Those are 0:10:41.720 --> 0:10:44.280 two phases in the first part, and then we have 0:10:44.320 --> 0:10:46.559 synergy and maturity the two phases in the last one. 0:10:46.600 --> 0:10:48.400 And it always works this way, and then we'll have 0:10:48.679 --> 0:10:51.160 the next big bang in the next cycle. We'll start 0:10:51.200 --> 0:10:54.240 from there. Now, if I overlay this with time periods, 0:10:54.280 --> 0:10:56.280 just so you can see what we're looking at. This 0:10:56.400 --> 0:10:58.920 is twenty ten to twenty twenty, that's the first phase. 0:10:59.040 --> 0:11:02.040 Twenty twenty to twenty thirty phase number two, twenty thirty 0:11:02.080 --> 0:11:04.680 to number forty, phase number three, and twenty forty to 0:11:04.720 --> 0:11:07.920 twenty fifty would be phase four. And that would complete 0:11:08.080 --> 0:11:11.640 this fifty year cycle within this and you might recognize 0:11:11.679 --> 0:11:14.400 this pattern right here if you're a technology person. I'm 0:11:14.440 --> 0:11:16.199 going to come back to that in a minute, but 0:11:16.320 --> 0:11:19.959 let me give you some examples of history. So remember 0:11:20.200 --> 0:11:23.600 the last one started nineteen seventy one, and this was 0:11:23.679 --> 0:11:28.080 the microprocessor, which brought personal computers, telecom and the internet. 0:11:28.080 --> 0:11:31.920 So so the microprocess was the first one. Nineteen seventy one, 0:11:31.960 --> 0:11:35.480 the birth of the microprocessor with Intel. Now what's important 0:11:35.520 --> 0:11:37.760 is if you map this from an investor standpoint, a 0:11:37.800 --> 0:11:41.440 price level standpoint, you map this technology cycle over with 0:11:41.480 --> 0:11:43.800 the price you see Intel here, and what you see 0:11:43.920 --> 0:11:46.600 for the first cycle, first part of the cycle, first 0:11:46.600 --> 0:11:54.080 twenty years, Intel price went up twenty three thousand percent 0:11:54.200 --> 0:11:58.640 in price. Twenty three thousand percent in price. Now that 0:11:58.679 --> 0:12:01.920 went up so cross, so much, so crazy that everyone 0:12:01.920 --> 0:12:03.840 looked at the Intaeil said that's got to be a bubble. 0:12:04.120 --> 0:12:06.880 It's so expensive. There's no way it can go from here. 0:12:07.080 --> 0:12:09.120 I need to go find the next microprocessor. I need 0:12:09.160 --> 0:12:11.760 to find a cheaper microprocessor. Because it went up twenty 0:12:11.760 --> 0:12:14.560 three thousand percent. I missed out. Oh always me, I 0:12:14.640 --> 0:12:17.240 never catch these, et cetera, et cetera. But what happened 0:12:17.360 --> 0:12:20.920 is that was phase one. A small business owner, are 0:12:20.960 --> 0:12:23.760 you buried in all types of work keeping you from 0:12:23.840 --> 0:12:26.360 the real thing that makes you money? Well that's where 0:12:26.520 --> 0:12:28.600 just Works comes in. They're the all in one platform 0:12:28.640 --> 0:12:31.719 that supports small business growth. 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Again that's just Works dot com slash podcast. 0:13:11.360 --> 0:13:17.040 In phase two, right here, it went up another twenty 0:13:17.080 --> 0:13:21.240 six thousand percent. So everyone sat on the sidelines. Oh 0:13:21.280 --> 0:13:23.400 I missed out, it's too late, it's too expensive. Why 0:13:23.440 --> 0:13:25.800 didn't I get in earlier? And it went up even 0:13:25.920 --> 0:13:29.880 more twenty six thousand percent. Now I can show you 0:13:29.920 --> 0:13:32.080 example after example and I'm gonna show you some more. 0:13:32.280 --> 0:13:36.560 It wasn't just Intel, it wasn't just microprocessors. As a 0:13:36.559 --> 0:13:39.120 matter of fact, like I said, the microprocessor brought us 0:13:39.160 --> 0:13:43.200 the boom of the computer and telecom and all of 0:13:43.200 --> 0:13:46.120 those we can see here Apple. So then the microprocessor 0:13:46.160 --> 0:13:49.720 brought us personal computers. Now, Apple went up one point 0:13:50.080 --> 0:13:53.880 five million percent one point five million percent in this 0:13:53.920 --> 0:13:56.720 first phase. And again everyone said, oh I missed it, 0:13:56.720 --> 0:13:59.160 it's too late. Why didn't I buy it? I always 0:13:59.160 --> 0:14:01.960 miss these things, and they sat on the sidelines. And 0:14:01.960 --> 0:14:04.640 then Apple went into phase two and went up another 0:14:05.040 --> 0:14:09.600 fifty thousand percent from there, an enormous amount. And so 0:14:09.679 --> 0:14:13.599 what happens is you can see these cycles are dependable, reliable. 0:14:13.760 --> 0:14:17.120 Microsoft I believe, went up about was it thirty forty 0:14:17.200 --> 0:14:19.920 thousand percent in phase one, phase two, went up over 0:14:20.040 --> 0:14:23.600 a million percent in phase two. Well, everyone sat on 0:14:23.640 --> 0:14:27.160 the sidelines, thinking that they missed it, that it's too expensive, 0:14:27.680 --> 0:14:31.560 not realizing that these things move in cycles. That makes sense, 0:14:31.840 --> 0:14:34.280 all right. So now that you understand that, you've seen 0:14:34.320 --> 0:14:37.920 the historical relation to that, let's overlay this and look 0:14:37.960 --> 0:14:40.920 at where we are in this new age of decentralization 0:14:41.040 --> 0:14:43.200 and bitcoin, et cetera. Okay, so the first thing you 0:14:43.200 --> 0:14:46.280 have to understand is that there's again four phases and 0:14:46.320 --> 0:14:49.800 we can overlay them with phase one twenty ten or 0:14:49.840 --> 0:14:53.160 twenty twenty being this eruption phase, and really it's the 0:14:53.200 --> 0:14:56.640 age of retail. So there's the very first part of 0:14:56.240 --> 0:15:00.120 the technology of diffusion where just the true believers, the 0:15:00.160 --> 0:15:03.120 early adopters, the tinkers, the nerds, if you will, they 0:15:03.160 --> 0:15:05.920 all start to come to play. It's a very small 0:15:05.960 --> 0:15:09.400 piece that's retail. But what happens is in phase two, 0:15:09.760 --> 0:15:14.000 as we move from the first phase into phase two, 0:15:15.160 --> 0:15:17.800 it's now called the frenzy phase. Now this is where 0:15:17.840 --> 0:15:20.600 we start getting wider adoption, where a lot more people coming. 0:15:20.720 --> 0:15:23.480 It's been proven out by the true believers, the early adopters, 0:15:23.640 --> 0:15:25.600 and now everybody else wants to jump in and get 0:15:25.600 --> 0:15:28.320 a piece of the pie. And this is really illustrated 0:15:28.320 --> 0:15:32.600 through the institutional phase. So right now you know the institutions, 0:15:32.640 --> 0:15:36.360 the wall streets, the ETFs, the black Rocks, and yes, 0:15:36.400 --> 0:15:39.680 even the governments, the sovereigns are starting to come into 0:15:39.720 --> 0:15:42.640 this institutional phase, which is why it's a frenzy, which 0:15:42.640 --> 0:15:44.920 is why it's starting to move so fast. Okay, Now 0:15:44.960 --> 0:15:47.760 if we take that and we overlay it with another chart, 0:15:47.920 --> 0:15:50.200 so we can understand this a little bit better. We 0:15:50.240 --> 0:15:52.480 have the same chart now, but now I've put something 0:15:52.560 --> 0:15:54.960 called an S curve onto ear. An S curve is 0:15:54.960 --> 0:15:58.640 a tool that we can use to measure adoption of technology, 0:15:58.800 --> 0:16:01.160 but you can use it to measure the things like viruses, 0:16:01.200 --> 0:16:04.000 even things like that, And it's a way to measure 0:16:04.080 --> 0:16:07.960 how fast adoption could get through a society. So basically, 0:16:08.000 --> 0:16:09.560 the way it works is the time it takes to 0:16:09.600 --> 0:16:13.600 go from zero to ten percent adoption is the same 0:16:13.600 --> 0:16:15.720 amount of time it takes to go from ten percent 0:16:16.200 --> 0:16:19.800 to ninety percent adoption. All right, that's the way this move. 0:16:19.880 --> 0:16:23.160 So now we overlay the four different phases of the 0:16:23.160 --> 0:16:26.600 fifty year cycle, and we overlay it with an S curve. 0:16:26.680 --> 0:16:29.400 And what we see is that while this part of 0:16:29.440 --> 0:16:32.640 the move, again with Intel and Apple and even with Bitcoin, 0:16:32.960 --> 0:16:35.600 everybody thinks they missed out. Oh my gosh, it moves 0:16:35.600 --> 0:16:37.160 so much, I wish I would have bought it before, 0:16:37.280 --> 0:16:39.840 So they sat on the sidelines. We can see why 0:16:39.880 --> 0:16:42.880 the second part of the move is the biggest part 0:16:42.960 --> 0:16:45.480 of the move, the frenzy. It's where the institutions, where 0:16:45.480 --> 0:16:47.240 the sovereigns where they come in. And I've put some 0:16:47.320 --> 0:16:50.480 green lines here show and illustrate this how big of 0:16:50.520 --> 0:16:53.960 this move. It's instead of moving linear, it starts to 0:16:54.080 --> 0:16:57.400 move parabolic. You can see that move right there, and 0:16:57.440 --> 0:16:59.560 that's why everyone thinks where this red line is they've 0:16:59.560 --> 0:17:02.360 missed out. But the biggest move is here. Remember Phase 0:17:02.400 --> 0:17:06.880 one is retail, you and I, and sure billions, hundreds 0:17:06.920 --> 0:17:10.199 of billions of dollars came into the space. Certainly we 0:17:10.240 --> 0:17:12.639 saw it go up. But now with the frenzy phase, 0:17:12.680 --> 0:17:15.800 with the institutions and the sovereigns, we're talking about trillions 0:17:15.800 --> 0:17:18.760 of dollars much bigger. The move in front of us 0:17:18.840 --> 0:17:20.840 is going to be much bigger than most people can 0:17:20.880 --> 0:17:25.560 even imagine. Okay, now where does that put us at 0:17:25.560 --> 0:17:27.960 the end of this phase two? Now we can go 0:17:28.000 --> 0:17:31.040 to phase three in phase four, and that's for another video. 0:17:31.200 --> 0:17:32.440 But where does that put us at the end of 0:17:32.480 --> 0:17:36.080 phase two which will be somewhere around twenty thirty? So 0:17:36.480 --> 0:17:38.679 is it too late for bitcoins? Should I short it? 0:17:38.680 --> 0:17:40.280 Should I sell it? Should I get out of it? 0:17:40.400 --> 0:17:42.720 Will it keep going up? Should I go hunt for 0:17:42.800 --> 0:17:45.359 some smaller coins? They're going to be more explosive. Is 0:17:45.400 --> 0:17:48.000 it going to boom or bust? Well, remember, we can 0:17:48.359 --> 0:17:51.280 measure the slope, so when we look at that S curve, 0:17:51.600 --> 0:17:53.959 it helps us understand where that's going. But what we 0:17:53.960 --> 0:17:56.320 want to do is we want to look at some historical numbers, 0:17:57.080 --> 0:17:59.320 and then we want to look at some growth drivers, 0:17:59.800 --> 0:18:02.200 and then we want to project that into the forward. 0:18:02.440 --> 0:18:04.320 This is what a venture capital would do if you're 0:18:04.359 --> 0:18:07.399 investing in new technologies like Uber and Airbnb. This is 0:18:07.440 --> 0:18:09.320 what you would do. Is how we do it. Okay, 0:18:09.359 --> 0:18:11.280 so we measured the slope. I showed you that it 0:18:11.320 --> 0:18:15.359 goes nonlinear but instead parabolic. So we understand that that 0:18:15.400 --> 0:18:18.560 means the growth, the rate of growth should change. Okay, 0:18:18.600 --> 0:18:20.679 So we want to look at the historical numbers and 0:18:20.720 --> 0:18:23.920 then we want to understand the drivers of these numbers. 0:18:24.000 --> 0:18:25.560 So let me show you a couple of things. First 0:18:25.600 --> 0:18:28.680 of all, I've talked about this before. So bitcoin is 0:18:28.720 --> 0:18:31.199 not competing as a new technology, it's not competing as 0:18:31.240 --> 0:18:34.920 a payment network. It's competing against the store of value 0:18:34.960 --> 0:18:39.000 assets value itself. So we look at assets that are 0:18:39.040 --> 0:18:42.639 store by assets like gold, collectibles, equities, real estate, bonds, money, 0:18:42.680 --> 0:18:46.280 et cetera. So if I was pitching on Uber or Airbnb, 0:18:46.600 --> 0:18:50.400 we would say, well, Airbnb is competing against hotels. So 0:18:50.480 --> 0:18:53.320 the hotel industry is this big, the total addressable market 0:18:53.320 --> 0:18:56.280 the TAM. If I could take x percentage, five percent, 0:18:56.359 --> 0:18:59.400 ten percent from the TAM of the hotel market, it'd 0:18:59.440 --> 0:19:03.320 be worth this much. Uber disrupting taxis, limos, vans, et cetera. 0:19:03.800 --> 0:19:07.680 So Bitcoin is taking value. It's disrupting all these store 0:19:07.720 --> 0:19:09.760 value assets. It'll take a little bit from gold, a 0:19:09.760 --> 0:19:12.560 little bit from collectibles, equities, et cetera. Now, this is 0:19:12.560 --> 0:19:15.480 from twenty twenty to where I project things to be 0:19:15.560 --> 0:19:18.800 a twenty thirty. Let's just start here. The money supply 0:19:19.000 --> 0:19:22.040 was ninety five trillion dollars in twenty twenty, and I 0:19:22.119 --> 0:19:25.000 projected to be somewhere around two hundred and five trillion, 0:19:25.359 --> 0:19:30.520 which is eight percent growth throughout the decade. Now eight 0:19:30.560 --> 0:19:32.640 percent is a little bit low. Now the reason why 0:19:32.760 --> 0:19:34.879 is not only do we have historical numbers, but we 0:19:34.960 --> 0:19:37.280 also look at the growth of this. So the government, 0:19:37.400 --> 0:19:40.320 the United States government, the US dollar, the reserve currency 0:19:40.320 --> 0:19:43.320 the world. The CBO is the Congressional Budget Office. They 0:19:43.480 --> 0:19:46.159 give us these numbers. They project out where we'll be 0:19:46.240 --> 0:19:49.000 through the next thirty years by twenty fifty four. Now, 0:19:49.160 --> 0:19:51.760 currently the money supply the FED balance sheet is growing 0:19:51.800 --> 0:19:55.439 by thirteen percent a year, so I've only put eight percent. 0:19:55.480 --> 0:19:57.560 I'm undershooting this a little bit to give us a 0:19:57.560 --> 0:20:01.120 little bit of conservative numbers. Bonds hundred trillion and twenty twenty, 0:20:01.119 --> 0:20:03.320 I project them to grow by five percent a year 0:20:03.359 --> 0:20:06.040 to four eighty eight. Now, if you understand this, I 0:20:06.040 --> 0:20:07.679 talk about this all the time. When the money supply 0:20:07.760 --> 0:20:11.320