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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game?

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Speaker 2: Do us proud read a lot?

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Speaker 3: They're up for running a game so smooth, so sweet.

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Speaker 2: Splendid sixteing, just glorious execution.

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Speaker 1: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent efforts four

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Speaker 1: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: How shut with that shot with fine.

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Speaker 1: God, buddy, And that's why you.

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Speaker 3: See your beautiful Tias.

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Speaker 2: Look at his movements, the most.

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Speaker 3: Dangerous a mount on the planet.

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Speaker 2: Nobody picture them.

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Speaker 3: Shut up.

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Speaker 1: I'm trying again, be wove.

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Speaker 2: It's left to one of the white eyed, drilled bibused.

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Speaker 2: How old earth that happens?

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Speaker 3: Hello, ey one, and welcome back to Wondergo Soccer Betting

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Speaker 3: podcast from the Action Network. Money is Michael Lieba and

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Speaker 3: joining me is always our PJ Cunningham and Sam Ingram

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Speaker 3: from Betting Experts, and together the three of us are

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Speaker 3: going to break down all ten of the upcoming Premier

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Speaker 3: League matches to take a little traps around Europe, give

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Speaker 3: out some bets there from BJ, talk a little championship,

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Speaker 3: and then do a three leg underdog Carlai. Unfortunately one

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Speaker 3: of the teams will be evident, and then our three

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Speaker 3: favorite bets for the Premier League match week ahead. The

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Speaker 3: international break is in the rear view, and we come

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Speaker 3: back with a Bang Bjay Sunday morning, a North London

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Speaker 3: derby between Spurs and Arsenal, this one at the Tottenham

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Speaker 3: Hotspur Stadium. Spurs are a home underdog plus one ninety

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Speaker 3: on the three way line, Arsenal plus one thirty that

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Speaker 3: draws here plus two sixty. My first reaction to this

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Speaker 3: line was that it looked about right. I thought maybe

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Speaker 3: Arsenal looked a little cheap, but not enough for me

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Speaker 3: to get involved. But the way I would think about

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Speaker 3: playing this is I think this could be and a

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Speaker 3: little bit of a snoozer given the completely different styles

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Speaker 3: of play they were going to see, And I just

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Speaker 3: don't think that is going to end up being like

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Speaker 3: there's just not going to be enough room for this

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Speaker 3: thing to open up because of the complete different opposite

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Speaker 3: ends of the sectrum that these two teams approached the

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Speaker 3: game from.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so you know, as an Arsenal fan, it's not

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Speaker 1: a great situation coming into this. If you haven't heard,

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Speaker 1: Declan Rice is suspended and Martinodeguard is injured for this game,

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Speaker 1: which is I would say two of our four most

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Speaker 1: important players on the team, so that's obviously not a

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Speaker 1: good situation coming into this. But I want to kind

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Speaker 1: of go back to the last meeting between these two teams,

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Speaker 1: which was towards the end of the season. If you

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Speaker 1: remember that, Arsenal won the match three to two in

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Speaker 1: one of the most beautiful Arsenal fashions possible. They scored

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Speaker 1: two goals offfos set pieces, got one on a transition break,

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Speaker 1: and then they conceded two goals late, one off of

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Speaker 1: a mistake by David Ryan, then obviously a penalty. But

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Speaker 1: what Arsenal has shown defensively, especially in that game, is

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Speaker 1: the versatility they have. Defensively. You're probably gonna see a

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Speaker 1: Thomas party Georginia midfield, would be my guest. Some Arsenal's

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Speaker 1: probably going to go for a more defensive approach and

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Speaker 1: looking to play more more direct than they typically would,

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Speaker 1: would be my guess. But Arsenal can defend in a

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Speaker 1: lot of different formations when they're in their own final third.

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Speaker 1: Their high press stifled Spurs in the first meeting. If

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Speaker 1: you remember, toward at the beginning of the Ange post

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Speaker 1: kalblu Rain at the Tottenham, they smothered them for the

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Speaker 1: first half and completely dominated them, but in the second

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Speaker 1: meeting they sat back for large stretches in the second

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Speaker 1: half when they had a lead in a six to

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Speaker 1: two to two. They can play that, they can play

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Speaker 1: a five to four to one, they can play in

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Speaker 1: their typical base four four to two and they make

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Speaker 1: it very, very difficult for teams to play through, especially Tottenham,

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Speaker 1: who's build up honestly hasn't been that good to begin

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Speaker 1: the season. They weren't that great against Leicester in the

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Speaker 1: opening week, they capitalized on some mistakes from Everton, and

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Speaker 1: then against Newcastle before the international break they had twenty

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Speaker 1: shots and just one point two expected goals. That's incredibly

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Speaker 1: in AF and I think the more worrying thing was

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Speaker 1: I Shak scored the winner in the seventy eighth minute.

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Speaker 1: Tottenham did not attempt a shot after the seventy eighth

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Speaker 1: minutes when they were down to one. That is incredibly

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Speaker 1: concerning the fact that they weren't able to play through

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Speaker 1: Newcastle's four or five to one, which you know, midway

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Speaker 1: through the point last season proven to be completely ineffective.

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Speaker 1: You know, Newcastle's playing that formation a little bit more often.

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Speaker 1: But the fact they weren't able to play through that.

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Speaker 1: What makes you think they're going to play through Arsenal's

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Speaker 1: defensive block. So I agree with you Michael that I

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Speaker 1: think this does steer more towards a low scoring type match.

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Speaker 1: Arsenal obviously has a huge advantage on set pieces and

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Speaker 1: I really hope they scored multiple goals again off of them,

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Speaker 1: because Tottenham still doesn't look look like a very good

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Speaker 1: defensive set piece team. So the other aspect for Tottenham

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Speaker 1: is it looks like Silanki and or Charles Centerre both

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Speaker 1: can be out, which means sun is going to have

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Speaker 1: to play as a false sign up top. That is

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Speaker 1: a little bit worrying, not only playing through a defensive block.

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Speaker 1: But if you go back to that previous meeting, Christian

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Speaker 1: Romero created all of Tottenham's chances, all of their big

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Speaker 1: ones in that game. You know, he all the headers

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Speaker 1: off a set pieces. He's the one who capitalized on

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Speaker 1: the mistake over Raya. The forwards did absolutely nothing. So

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Speaker 1: for me, the way I'm kind of going on this,

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Speaker 1: it's more of a lean than an actual play just

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Speaker 1: because I'm projecting a little bit of value on it.

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Speaker 1: Is both team to score no at plus one sixty

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Speaker 1: because the Arsenal's obviously can to be missing Odaguard, who

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Speaker 1: is very, very crucial to Sokka actually being effective. You know,

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Speaker 1: Odaguard is somebody who shades over to his side and

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Speaker 1: helps create those wide overloads to alleviate the pressure of Socca,

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Speaker 1: who gets double teamed every single time. So Socca is

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Speaker 1: gonna be double teamed. It's going to be hard for

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Speaker 1: Arsenal to play through. And Tottenham hasn't been as aggressive

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Speaker 1: out of possession with their pressing. If you watch the

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Speaker 1: Newcastle match, they actually were playing pretty deep and getting

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Speaker 1: a lot of guys back in transition rather than just

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Speaker 1: leaving their two center backs on an island, and they

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Speaker 1: actually defended Newcastle's long balls over the top a lot

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Speaker 1: better than they did in the previous meetings. So for me,

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Speaker 1: I would steer more towards both teams score or no.

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Speaker 1: I am watching this Arsenal price though. You know they

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Speaker 1: opened it around minus one ten. Now we're up to

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Speaker 1: plus one thirty. If they get into the plus one

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Speaker 1: fifty range and I can get a draw. No, bed

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Speaker 1: at like minus one twenty, I think that's in range.

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Speaker 1: You know, Rice started every Premier League match them last season,

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Speaker 1: so it's'll be interesting to see what they are like

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Speaker 1: without him. But for me, both teams to score no

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Speaker 1: is where I would ahead in this match.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm leaning towards the playing some unders as well,

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Speaker 3: like I think the draws and play as well that

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Speaker 3: the Neil Nils fourteen to one in a Tottenham match.

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Speaker 3: It's just that's just not high enough for me. Sam,

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Speaker 3: anything for you sturs in Arsenal.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll probably just start with a start off got

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Speaker 2: in front of me, just to spice things up a bit.

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Speaker 2: Arsenal West Tottenham has seen both teams score more often

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Speaker 2: and any other fixture and Premier League history. I thought

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Speaker 2: landing forty three times, which is funny. But yeah, B

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Speaker 2: Jay's mentioned other gods out Rice suspended two main stays

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Speaker 2: in that Arsenal midfield color Fury for early too. Arsenal

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Speaker 2: might be absolutely fine on the weekend Georgin Neals come

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Speaker 2: in alongside party. As bj said, maybe Kai have it

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Speaker 2: dropping back into that midfield area, so that might be fine,

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Speaker 2: but it might not be so Arsenal obviously traveling to

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Speaker 2: their fierce North London rivals aside, which will want to

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Speaker 2: turn this into a back and forth and then to

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Speaker 2: end type of encounter. They're gonna want Arsenal on the ropes,

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Speaker 2: turning and facing their own goal, which is not easy

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Speaker 2: to do against this Arsenal team. Arsenal will want the

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Speaker 2: complete opposite. They'll want to continue to rely on that

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Speaker 2: solid defensive structure out of possession that they've molded over

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Speaker 2: the last couple of seasons, the setup which has gained

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Speaker 2: plaud its week on week. If Tottenham can win that

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Speaker 2: midfield battle, if they can out muscle their midfield counterparts

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Speaker 2: there and turn this game into something that Arsenal don't

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Speaker 2: want it to be, then I'm pretty sure Tottenham can

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Speaker 2: find some joy on Sunday, but it won't be easy,

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Speaker 2: so that might be a big if. Tottenham have lost

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Speaker 2: five of the last seven Premier League meetings with Arsenal,

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Speaker 2: so it's going to be tough. Looking at the main markets,

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Speaker 2: I don't really like too much, as I think this

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Speaker 2: is a game that could easily swing either way. Tottenham

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Speaker 2: plus zero point two five vision handicap I kind of

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Speaker 2: liked because obviously the drawers on side and the home

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Speaker 2: teams on side. I'm coming at it from a bit

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Speaker 2: of a different angle to BJ. Failing that, what I

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Speaker 2: liked in terms of the same game parlay was both

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Speaker 2: teams to score funnily enough and a card each in

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Speaker 2: the second half. That comes out of plus one or five.

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Speaker 2: So if we think Tottenham have enough to score at

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Speaker 2: home against the semi depleted, maybe you'd say Arsenal team,

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Speaker 2: which I think they can do. You would expect Arsenal

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Speaker 2: score at the other end. And in terms of the cards,

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Speaker 2: Jared Gillet is the referee. He's shown both teams a

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Speaker 2: second half card in three or four matches this season,

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Speaker 2: and he averaged four point three six cards per ninety

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Speaker 2: last time. And I often find him quite rash in

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Speaker 2: his decision making, and that's not ideal for a North

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Speaker 2: London derby when everything is romped right up. So I

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Speaker 2: think I like goes. I'm not sure. I think this

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Speaker 2: is more than more of a lean than anything. And

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Speaker 2: I definitely like cards. So saying main parlay both teams

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Speaker 2: to score and a card each second half and that

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Speaker 2: was plus one oh five.

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Speaker 3: I love it. Okay, that's a Sunday morning kickoff here

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Speaker 3: in the States. Let's flip it to Saturday morning. What

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Speaker 3: the Premier League comes back seven thirty am Eastern time.

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Speaker 3: I feel like man United keeps opening the slate. They

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Speaker 3: are traveling to Southampton, who are plus three thirty at

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Speaker 3: home United odds on there minus one thirty on the

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Speaker 3: road to draw here plus three hundred. I think the

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Speaker 3: opposite of what my hypothesis for an arsenal here this

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Speaker 3: thing could. I think this thing could be a bit bonkers. Sam,

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Speaker 3: we could see and to end action. We know that

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Speaker 3: United has plenty of flaws. They are going They've been

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Speaker 3: giving up chances for fun for years now. We've talked

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Speaker 3: a lot about Southampton and maybe not having enough of

200
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Speaker 3: a Plan B to have a successful Yo Yo s

201
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Speaker 3: back into the Premier League. So I think that this

202
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Speaker 3: thing goes a bit crazy. You don't you think it?

203
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Speaker 3: Maybe it does, but it will take some time to

204
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Speaker 3: get there potentially.

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Speaker 2: Michael. Yeah, in terms of you saying it may take

206
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Speaker 2: some time to get that. I've gone with the United

207
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Speaker 2: win and under three first half goals at even money,

208
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Speaker 2: So I feel a little bit unclean here siding with

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Speaker 2: United away from home at the prices. I've been so

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Speaker 2: anti United for so long, not because I've got any

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Speaker 2: kind of agenda against them, but just with Ericton hag

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Speaker 2: at the helm like I simply can't buy into this

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Speaker 2: Ericton Haggs United side. He hasn't shown me any reason

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Speaker 2: to I'm not sure they can be trusted. All three

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Speaker 2: of United's goes conceded and they lost that Liverpool last

216
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Speaker 2: time out came via errors. That's the first time on

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Speaker 2: record from two thousand and seven where they've committed as

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Speaker 2: many in a single Premier League match. So United with three,

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Speaker 2: Southampton with four. They've made the most errors lead into

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Speaker 2: a goal in the Premier League so far this season.

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Speaker 2: So this might be a match stream of errors. But

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Speaker 2: I think I might be more anti Saints than I

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Speaker 2: am anti United right now. I don't like the minus

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Speaker 2: one three nine on United. It's a bit skinny for me,

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Speaker 2: but you compare it with under three goes in the

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Speaker 2: first half and that gets you to even. So we're

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Speaker 2: on the back of an international break here, players returning

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Speaker 2: from South America, Africa, Asia, all over Europe, Lots of

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Speaker 2: players involved in lots of games, plenty of traveling. It

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Speaker 2: all takes its toll to have eleven verse eleven here

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Speaker 2: firing and ready to go at one hundred percent in

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Speaker 2: the first half. I think it's unlikely. This is, by

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Speaker 2: the way, a twelve point thirty lunchtime kickoff in England.

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Speaker 2: As Michael said, remember it's business as usual for the

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Speaker 2: Premier League in Sky Sports. There have been no steps

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Speaker 2: taken to preserve tid legs on Saturday, which is Sky's

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Speaker 2: usual kind of approach to these things. Over in England.

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Speaker 2: Southampton have lost all three games. Last time they're at

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Speaker 2: Saint Mary's was against not known Forest Side, which you

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Speaker 2: may remember they kind of made a mockery out of

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Speaker 2: Southampton in transition. Every time they turn possession over, Forest

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Speaker 2: were intent on getting bodies forward through the thirds and

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Speaker 2: in the end that one they'll Forest away win. Might

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Speaker 2: look like a smashing grab going off the result, but

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Speaker 2: it was much much more convincing than that twenty three

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Speaker 2: shots to Southampton's five two point four to five HG

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Speaker 2: to zero point one four h G. If we see

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Speaker 2: that version of Southampton on Saturday, United will win this

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Speaker 2: and maybe out of cancer, but it may take a

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Speaker 2: little bit of time to kind of heat up.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm glad you brought up that point. I'm gonna

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Speaker 3: revisited shortly BJ anything here. United in Southampton.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I kind of I like the like over three

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Speaker 1: here at plus one or five. I don't think Russell

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Speaker 1: Martin's going to make it to Christmas if I had

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Speaker 1: to make a prediction right now. It's not working. His

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Speaker 1: style of play is not working, and it's not going

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Speaker 1: to work as we continue on here, especially against Brentford.

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Speaker 1: You know Brentford is a team that typically just sits

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Speaker 1: back on everybody, like yes, they have the ability to

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Speaker 1: press high and do that. They did that to Southampton

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Speaker 1: and they punished them over and over and over again.

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Speaker 1: They scored two goals off of high turnover. So that's

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Speaker 1: three goals now conceded off of high turnovers and three

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Speaker 1: matches for Southampton, which is very very concerning, especially against

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Speaker 1: the United team that is going to press them. And

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Speaker 1: you know United, for all their defensive flaws last season,

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Speaker 1: they still were a team that could force hide turnovers.

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Speaker 1: They finished top five in that category, so they can

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Speaker 1: pick Southampton off here and create a lot of easy

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Speaker 1: transition opportunities. Now, the thing with Southampton's defense is, you

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Speaker 1: know Sam mentioned the Matchkins Sounding and Forest. They conceded

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Speaker 1: three expected goals against Brentford. So now in eleven v eleven.

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Speaker 1: They're conceding two point two expected goals per ninety minutes

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Speaker 1: because they obviously had the red card against Newcastle. The

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Speaker 1: glaring thing that for Southampton's defense against Brentford was is

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Speaker 1: Brentford was able to receive passes in the half spaces

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Speaker 1: just really whenever they want it. And if you know

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Speaker 1: anything about United right now, they're typically building up in

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Speaker 1: a three to one six and Xerxe and Ferinanz are

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Speaker 1: dropping in those half spaces to receive the ball. So

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Speaker 1: Man United is probably going to have a lot of

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Speaker 1: success playing through the middle of the pitch, which you know,

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Speaker 1: if you know anything about football right now is if

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Speaker 1: you can able to play through the middle, you can

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Speaker 1: pull a defense out of position and create a lot

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Speaker 1: of space for chances. So I think United should be

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Speaker 1: able to do that now. The thing with United right

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Speaker 1: now is if their press isn't as effective as it

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Speaker 1: has been for a long time, Southampton could be able

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Speaker 1: to play through them and they could be able to

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Speaker 1: generate some trances in transition here. So I like over

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Speaker 1: three at plus one five projected three and a half

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Speaker 1: goals for this match, so I think there's a little

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Speaker 1: bit of value on the over.

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Speaker 3: Okay, that moves us to anfield where Liverpool will be

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Speaker 3: waiting nighting of Forest as a minus four fifty favorites

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Speaker 3: to Tricky Trees traveling at eleven to one, the draw

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Speaker 3: is six to one. I think through the first three matches,

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Speaker 3: if you were to ask most Premier League fans take

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Speaker 3: out that the team that's kind of exceeded their expectations

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Speaker 3: the most, most would probably flock to Brighton, maybe Liverpool

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Speaker 3: maybe born with but Forrest is right there. With the

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Speaker 3: way that they started the season, It's been a soft schedule,

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Speaker 3: but still you look at the underlying numbers, they're really good.

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Speaker 3: They're full value for their place in the standings in

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Speaker 3: the top half. They maybe are a little unlucky to

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Speaker 3: only be on five points. Expected points put points them

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Speaker 3: closer to six. But they've just been good and new

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Speaker 3: know'st got something going here. Maybe not the most exciting

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Speaker 3: outfit to watch, but to Sam's point, like this has

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Speaker 3: been a low event for his team to start, Liverpool

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Speaker 3: obviously wants to do the opposite and play with a

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Speaker 3: little more pizazz to their game. I do think this

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Speaker 3: thing takes a little bit to get going, Like it's

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Speaker 3: probably and the odds tell us this is going to

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Speaker 3: be a Liverpool win. But I like the nil nil

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Speaker 3: in the first half here, and I'm going to create

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Speaker 3: a little bit of a round robin with some first

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Speaker 3: half nil nils. See see if I can't catch a

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Speaker 3: auto ticket, this is this one's around plus three ten.

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Speaker 3: I think that this takes a long time to get going.

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Speaker 3: Eventually Liverpool gets a separation. But with the international break,

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Speaker 3: with the way forests are going to come to anfield

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Speaker 3: like their Plan A, Plan B, Plan C and Plan

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Speaker 3: D is going to become set try to shut down

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Speaker 3: shot from the moment that the balls kicked. I think

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Speaker 3: this points to a slow, sluggish start at anfield, Sam,

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Speaker 3: So give me the nil nil first half of US

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Speaker 3: three ten.

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Speaker 2: Yes, shot, Michael's going for another no now in some capacity.

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Speaker 2: So the international break factor, yeah, we've mentioned that a

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Speaker 2: few times already. This fixture will be approached in a

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Speaker 2: way where Liverpool attempt to get the win in the

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Speaker 2: least legs up in way possible control the game, avoid

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Speaker 2: any kind of sustained press if you bear in mind

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Speaker 2: Ac Milan away for Liverpool midweek two. So there's a

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Speaker 2: lot to consider for niest slot, Liverpool take the lead

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Speaker 2: and then keep pushing and pushing until ninety minutes is up.

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Speaker 2: I don't think they do. I looked at the minus

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Speaker 2: not in a forest plus two originally, but I think

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Speaker 2: the chance of a push is quite high, and if

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Speaker 2: Forrest can get on the score sheet, then that plus

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Speaker 2: two would need Liverpool to score at least four goals

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Speaker 2: for that to be a loser. So I didn't really

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Speaker 2: mind that, but I think the chances of a push

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Speaker 2: are high there. So what might be a better way

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Speaker 2: to play it is the under three point five goal line.

349
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Speaker 2: If you think Liverpool looks to dominate proceedings, limit Forrest

350
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Speaker 2: very little. If they can and pick them off following

351
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Speaker 2: control possession, then we might not see four goals in

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Speaker 2: the match with tired legs dotted all over the pitch.

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Speaker 2: So if you look at Liverpool's frontline. Lewis Diaz played

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Speaker 2: ninety minutes against Iardentina last night on Tuesday in the

355
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Speaker 2: two one win. He cappedin aside for ninety minutes in

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Speaker 2: Peru a few games before that. Most Salah just played

357
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Speaker 2: ninety minutes in Egypt before playing seventy five minutes in

358
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Speaker 2: Botswana on Tuesday night. Chris Wood just played as a

359
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Speaker 2: lone striker in California against Mexico and then in Cincinnati

360
00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:08,399
Speaker 2: against USA. So Awini didn't play much football, but he

361
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Speaker 2: just traveled to Nigeria and then r one they were

362
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Speaker 2: on Tuesday. So all these lads are going to be

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Speaker 2: right as usual. The jury's out for me, so under

364
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Speaker 2: three point five goes at a backable price. I think

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Speaker 2: it was minus one twenty looks pretty good to me.

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Speaker 3: Cruel and unusual, man, it's just it's crazy, Bj, What

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Speaker 3: do you got for Liverpool and for us?

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Speaker 1: I'm with Sam, I like then to three and a

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Speaker 1: half as well. You know the big thing about Liverpool

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Speaker 1: right now, and you'll hear in the States Sam, they

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Speaker 1: did a wonderful tackle breakdown of what's kind of changed

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Speaker 1: under Liverpool and essentially out of possession they're playing against

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Speaker 1: the United. They were playing a four to four where

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Speaker 1: the front four were pressing and then two holding midfielders

375
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Speaker 1: were always staying there. You know, under clop it was

376
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Speaker 1: all out press all the time. Midfielders were going forward

377
00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:55,000
Speaker 1: and they were essentially leaving their center backs on islands. Well,

378
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Speaker 1: now they're giving themselves a little bit more defensive cover,

379
00:18:57,480 --> 00:18:59,120
Speaker 1: playing out a little bit more of a mid block,

380
00:18:59,160 --> 00:19:01,880
Speaker 1: and it's made them so much better of a defensive team.

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Speaker 1: You know, all of you know, United did end up

382
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Speaker 1: creating one point four expected goals. All of those chances

383
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Speaker 1: came after Liverpool was already up to nothing. So now

384
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Speaker 1: we have a situation where I think this match is

385
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Speaker 1: going to mirror pretty similarly to the Liverpool and Brentford

386
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Speaker 1: match from match week two, where Liverpool was able to

387
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Speaker 1: control the match basically from start to finish, and the

388
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Speaker 1: biggest thing that they did was they never allowed Brentford

389
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Speaker 1: to have numerical advantages when they got out in transition.

390
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Speaker 1: And Nottingham Forest is a team built pretty similarly to

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Speaker 1: that of Brentford. So if you're not allowing teams to

392
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Speaker 1: beat you in transition, that makes it a lot harder

393
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Speaker 1: to hit overs because that's really the only way that

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Speaker 1: teams were able to actually play through Liverpool. Right, you

395
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Speaker 1: actually have a chance to score here against Liverpool, So

396
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Speaker 1: Forrest is going to sit deep there. We've known them

397
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Speaker 1: to be a very good defensive block team. Last season's

398
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Speaker 1: second and final third of box entry conversion rate allowed.

399
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Speaker 1: They make it very difficult to play through the middle.

400
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Speaker 1: So in Arnie Slot's teams at fine Ord and it's

401
00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:01,639
Speaker 1: become pretty true true here at Liverpool as well. Is

402
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Speaker 1: they tend to start pretty slow, like they tend to

403
00:20:04,359 --> 00:20:07,080
Speaker 1: feel matches out before they ramp up the pressure and

404
00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:10,680
Speaker 1: really go for it. So I like then to three

405
00:20:10,680 --> 00:20:13,200
Speaker 1: and a half only projected three point one goals for

406
00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:16,439
Speaker 1: this match. So yeah, I'm gonna say I.

407
00:20:16,480 --> 00:20:20,720
Speaker 3: Like the under. Okay, another title contender City, Manchester City.

408
00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:23,960
Speaker 3: It's minus five seventy five hosting Brentford traveling at twelve

409
00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:27,560
Speaker 3: to one. The draw here is plus seven hundred. I'm

410
00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:29,600
Speaker 3: going to go to it again. I just think there's

411
00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:32,399
Speaker 3: just way too many moving parts, too many people players,

412
00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:35,399
Speaker 3: key players returning from international duty to think, and with

413
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Speaker 3: the way Brentford is going to want to play, which

414
00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:42,040
Speaker 3: is going to be relatively low risk, just don't see

415
00:20:42,080 --> 00:20:45,440
Speaker 3: how this thing really gets off the mat without just

416
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Speaker 3: an error or just some a moment of magic from someone,

417
00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:54,080
Speaker 3: which obviously, especially City, it's very possible. But the nil

418
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Speaker 3: nil in the first half, you want to pair that

419
00:20:56,359 --> 00:20:59,400
Speaker 3: with the Liverpool one. Create yourself some fun round robin

420
00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:01,760
Speaker 3: in the morning Saturday or in the afternoon over there.

421
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Speaker 3: For Sam, it's coming in a plus two seventy five

422
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Speaker 3: because I think that this thing also feels it just

423
00:21:06,040 --> 00:21:08,840
Speaker 3: feels like you can slap a two nothing score line

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Speaker 3: on this and move on with your day. Sam. So

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Speaker 3: I don't really see how this thing really kind of

426
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Speaker 3: develops into any sort of chaos.

427
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Speaker 2: In my mind, I'm thinking exactly what you're thinking. And

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Speaker 2: then I've got the devil on my shoulder telling me,

429
00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:23,399
Speaker 2: you know, it's City at the Etty hard Lot. Are

430
00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:26,960
Speaker 2: you crazy? You're going to take unders? But no, I'm

431
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Speaker 2: going to agree with you. It's just going to be

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Speaker 2: a rinse and repeat job. About what I said about

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Speaker 2: Liverpool City at home. We've seen them coast past that

434
00:21:33,920 --> 00:21:37,200
Speaker 2: over three point five goal on many times. City of

435
00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:40,280
Speaker 2: one each of the last twentiear League Premier League games

436
00:21:40,400 --> 00:21:42,359
Speaker 2: or by a margin of two plus goals, so this

437
00:21:42,520 --> 00:21:45,200
Speaker 2: is what they do. Arling. Harland has seven goals in

438
00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:47,200
Speaker 2: the Premier League this season, the most ever by a

439
00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:50,480
Speaker 2: player in the team's first three matches of a campaign

440
00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:53,960
Speaker 2: in the competition. So there's a few reasons why taking

441
00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:57,800
Speaker 2: unders here should make you a little nervous. The Premier League,

442
00:21:57,840 --> 00:22:01,240
Speaker 2: particularly last season wildest with the amount of goal scored

443
00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:03,680
Speaker 2: each and every weekend, and that's why we now have

444
00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:07,639
Speaker 2: go lines set so high. The impact of the international break, however,

445
00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:10,840
Speaker 2: might play its part this weekend again on the three

446
00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:13,720
Speaker 2: point five goals is the standout for me. Champions League

447
00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:17,000
Speaker 2: on the horizon, Lots of travel inconvenience, limited time on

448
00:22:17,080 --> 00:22:19,480
Speaker 2: the training pitch which is a big factor you don't

449
00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:23,359
Speaker 2: really consider, and different time zones, adapting body clocks that

450
00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:26,280
Speaker 2: I could go on and so all of that might

451
00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:30,240
Speaker 2: just usher us towards three or fewer goals And full

452
00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:33,400
Speaker 2: disclosure here by the way, after the first international break

453
00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:36,960
Speaker 2: last season, both City and Liverpool won three one City

454
00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:39,760
Speaker 2: away to West Ham and Liverpool on the road at Wolves,

455
00:22:41,320 --> 00:22:43,840
Speaker 2: but Brentford remained the last side to win away to

456
00:22:43,960 --> 00:22:47,719
Speaker 2: Manchester City in any competition. So I was wondering if

457
00:22:47,800 --> 00:22:50,200
Speaker 2: either of you fancied a stab at eleven to one

458
00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:51,840
Speaker 2: on Brentford.

459
00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:57,359
Speaker 3: Was as famously the underdog. Partly we hit was that

460
00:22:57,520 --> 00:23:03,080
Speaker 3: last time that yeah, nice, love it crazy crazy day

461
00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:05,040
Speaker 3: that was a crazy price too, like it just and

462
00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:07,520
Speaker 3: it just shows you how much things have shortened up

463
00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:10,560
Speaker 3: here like that. Brentford team was nineteen to one. Now

464
00:23:10,600 --> 00:23:14,600
Speaker 3: we're getting eleven and twelve. Yeah, I'd much rather be

465
00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:18,360
Speaker 3: betting Brentford at this number, but I just don't. I'm

466
00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:20,720
Speaker 3: done with I just tired of betting in City at

467
00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:24,800
Speaker 3: home Beja. It's been so long, So I just think, Yeah, Snoozes,

468
00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:29,000
Speaker 3: snoozes to a two nothing Earling holland Brace City get

469
00:23:29,040 --> 00:23:31,000
Speaker 3: their three points and move into the Champions League.

470
00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:32,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's that's kind of where I landed to. Like,

471
00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:35,320
Speaker 1: you know, typically I would just be all over Brentford,

472
00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:36,800
Speaker 1: you know, plus two or even if you can get

473
00:23:36,800 --> 00:23:38,360
Speaker 1: a plus two and a half on them, like that's

474
00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:40,040
Speaker 1: you know, that'd be our bread and butter here on

475
00:23:40,080 --> 00:23:43,200
Speaker 1: this podcast. But no, I've landed with Sam. I'm on

476
00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:46,040
Speaker 1: under three and a half as well. The thing with

477
00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:49,280
Speaker 1: you know, City has put up back to back matches

478
00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:52,720
Speaker 1: where they've gone over three expected goals. But let's just

479
00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:55,200
Speaker 1: be honest, that's against pretty much two of the worst

480
00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:57,600
Speaker 1: defensive teams in the Premier League and Ipswich and west Ham,

481
00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:01,000
Speaker 1: And how they were able to do that if you

482
00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:03,240
Speaker 1: go back and watch those matches, it's because both of

483
00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:05,120
Speaker 1: those teams kept trying to build out of the back

484
00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:06,959
Speaker 1: and they and they just turned the ball right over

485
00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:10,879
Speaker 1: to City and gave them easy opportunities. So Brentford's not

486
00:24:11,080 --> 00:24:13,040
Speaker 1: going to do that. They're just gonna send the ball

487
00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:16,440
Speaker 1: along over and over and over again. And you know,

488
00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:19,199
Speaker 1: the Ipswich match is also very interesting from an aspect

489
00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:21,840
Speaker 1: of once City got a comfortable lead, they just sat

490
00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:24,920
Speaker 1: on that thing for the like basically the entire second half.

491
00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:27,040
Speaker 1: You know, west Ham kept trying to press them and

492
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:28,959
Speaker 1: they kept trying to come at them, so City had

493
00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:30,560
Speaker 1: like no choice and they had to keep trying to

494
00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:34,160
Speaker 1: play through them and they eventually got big chances. But again,

495
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:37,119
Speaker 1: the Liverpool Brentford match is another good carbon copy I

496
00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:38,760
Speaker 1: think of what this match is going to look like.

497
00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:41,920
Speaker 1: You know, Brentford conceded in the thirteenth minute against Liverpool.

498
00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:44,320
Speaker 1: In that match, they didn't just immediately come out of

499
00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:46,760
Speaker 1: their defensive block and just start pressing like crazy and

500
00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:48,320
Speaker 1: just trying to get back in the match. No, they

501
00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:50,920
Speaker 1: had a very measured approach. They were sitting deep and

502
00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:53,359
Speaker 1: they were looking for their transition opportunities. They didn't just,

503
00:24:53,560 --> 00:24:55,919
Speaker 1: you know, like west Ham or Ipswich, just come out

504
00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:57,520
Speaker 1: and say, oh crap, like we got to get the

505
00:24:57,560 --> 00:24:59,399
Speaker 1: ball back and we got to try to score. So

506
00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:02,520
Speaker 1: we know Brentford to be a very good load block

507
00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:04,720
Speaker 1: defensive team, you know, even if they haven't shown it

508
00:25:04,800 --> 00:25:06,879
Speaker 1: over the last few years. But City is going to

509
00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:09,639
Speaker 1: control this match. Last both the meetings last season they

510
00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:12,960
Speaker 1: controlled over seventy percent of the ball. Rodery should be

511
00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:15,840
Speaker 1: back to which gives City more control than they've had

512
00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:19,119
Speaker 1: in these first three matches as well, So I'm leaning

513
00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:21,320
Speaker 1: more towards an under here as well. Only projected two

514
00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:24,159
Speaker 1: point nine goals for this match, So another sluggish one,

515
00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:26,560
Speaker 1: and yeah, it's going to be a boring weekend of unders.

516
00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:28,040
Speaker 1: But you know what, let's hope they all head.

517
00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:31,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, Premier Leage unders. That's what you wanted to be doing, right, Yeah.

518
00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:36,320
Speaker 3: Brighton and Ipswich up next. Not much for me here, Sam,

519
00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:38,320
Speaker 3: You're the only one with any sort of conviction on

520
00:25:38,359 --> 00:25:40,720
Speaker 3: this one. Brighton minus two to seventy, Ipswich seven to

521
00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:43,200
Speaker 3: one on the road in the draw is plus four

522
00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:47,159
Speaker 3: to twenty five. Ipswich was able to get off the

523
00:25:47,280 --> 00:25:52,119
Speaker 3: mark at least in their last match against Fulham right,

524
00:25:52,119 --> 00:25:56,680
Speaker 3: and obviously been quite impressive under Hurtzler. Anything for you

525
00:25:57,320 --> 00:25:58,760
Speaker 3: worth going to the window.

526
00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:01,920
Speaker 2: For yeah, yeah, I like goals. This is more of

527
00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:03,880
Speaker 2: a lean, so I'll be quick. Over two point five

528
00:26:03,960 --> 00:26:05,840
Speaker 2: goals and both teams to score at plus one ten.

529
00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:07,560
Speaker 2: That was a standout for me if I was going

530
00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:09,840
Speaker 2: to have a play on something. The five point two

531
00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:13,040
Speaker 2: eight x G mustard by Brighton. It's the third highest

532
00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:16,960
Speaker 2: total after three matches following Hurtzler's arrival down on the

533
00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:20,560
Speaker 2: South coast. Ipswich have conceded six point ninety four XGA,

534
00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:22,840
Speaker 2: which is a Premier League high, but they've played City

535
00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:25,800
Speaker 2: in Liverpool, so it's kind of hard to gauge where

536
00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:29,320
Speaker 2: they are at iv End and United are the only

537
00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:31,000
Speaker 2: side to play at the Amex in the league this

538
00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:34,040
Speaker 2: season so far, and they registered one point four three

539
00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:37,480
Speaker 2: XG and they caused Brighten problems. And Brighton have actually

540
00:26:37,560 --> 00:26:40,440
Speaker 2: lost just one of their last thirteen Premier League home

541
00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:44,200
Speaker 2: games against promoted sides, so this is a spot where

542
00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:47,560
Speaker 2: they do perform well. So this pick might hinge on

543
00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:50,080
Speaker 2: the away side turning up and putting in a real

544
00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:53,320
Speaker 2: good account of themselves. And if Ipswit's score here, which

545
00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:55,719
Speaker 2: I think they can, then I love the over two

546
00:26:55,760 --> 00:26:57,760
Speaker 2: point five goals and both team to score at plus

547
00:26:57,840 --> 00:27:00,800
Speaker 2: one ten. I'm very much behind this. It's side being

548
00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:02,680
Speaker 2: full of goes ivor end. I've said it on a

549
00:27:02,760 --> 00:27:05,320
Speaker 2: few podcasts already, so I'm going to keep putting these

550
00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:08,240
Speaker 2: prices up on the podcast whilst us they can't, whilst

551
00:27:08,240 --> 00:27:11,640
Speaker 2: they're still there and hopefully Ipswich can kind of get

552
00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:13,719
Speaker 2: into their scoring rhythm. So I didn't mind that at

553
00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:14,480
Speaker 2: plus one time.

554
00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:19,880
Speaker 3: Okay, that brings us to Crystal Palace and Leicester City

555
00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:24,240
Speaker 3: Palace odds on minus one sixty at home. Leicester City

556
00:27:24,359 --> 00:27:26,680
Speaker 3: traveling to sell her start as a plus four twenty

557
00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:31,359
Speaker 3: five underdog. The draw here is plus three ten BJ.

558
00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:35,600
Speaker 3: We're obviously pretty high in Palace coming in not been

559
00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:39,359
Speaker 3: a great start. They're struggling to create, which I didn't

560
00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:42,040
Speaker 3: think was going to be an issue with their averaging

561
00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:46,359
Speaker 3: just around one xg per game. We're pretty fortunate to

562
00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:49,680
Speaker 3: get a point out of that Chelsea match that came

563
00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:51,720
Speaker 3: on the heels of losses to Brentford and west Ham.

564
00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:55,080
Speaker 3: So I think that there's a chance we see Lester

565
00:27:56,640 --> 00:27:58,040
Speaker 3: kind of pip one here. Is this a good Bilo

566
00:27:58,160 --> 00:27:59,760
Speaker 3: spot on the Eagles?

567
00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:06,159
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I'm finding it very interesting you know,

568
00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:10,240
Speaker 1: this year more than ever with new managers coming into

569
00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:14,760
Speaker 1: a side who has a completely different tactical identity than

570
00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:18,800
Speaker 1: what they've been playing, and how we're not just seeing

571
00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:22,440
Speaker 1: them completely veer the other way towards the manager's tactics,

572
00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:25,959
Speaker 1: but like slowly getting there. And I think Lester kind

573
00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:27,640
Speaker 1: of fits that mold right now. You know, if you've

574
00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:31,000
Speaker 1: watched Lester obviously in the Championship last season, they were

575
00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:33,520
Speaker 1: one of the more possession dominant teams, always wanted to

576
00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:35,720
Speaker 1: build out of the back, inverted fullbacks, you know, modern

577
00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:39,760
Speaker 1: style under MORESCA, and they're still kind of trying to

578
00:28:39,880 --> 00:28:42,760
Speaker 1: do that in the Premier League. And you know, I

579
00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:45,440
Speaker 1: think just because Steve Cooper that probably feels he doesn't

580
00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:47,120
Speaker 1: have a side that can just you know, play three

581
00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:49,200
Speaker 1: five two. Let's send the ball along over and over

582
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:52,680
Speaker 1: and over again and actually be successful. But it's just

583
00:28:52,760 --> 00:28:57,360
Speaker 1: not working. They're not creating enough right now. And if

584
00:28:57,400 --> 00:29:01,400
Speaker 1: you've watched them both against Fulham and now against aston Villa,

585
00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:04,320
Speaker 1: two teams that play passive mid blocks, which is exactly

586
00:29:04,360 --> 00:29:07,840
Speaker 1: what Crystal Palace plays, they have been able to create nothing.

587
00:29:08,040 --> 00:29:10,280
Speaker 1: And I'm sorry, but a front two of Jordan I

588
00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:12,160
Speaker 1: who and Jamie Vardy is not going to get it

589
00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:15,240
Speaker 1: done in the Premier League, especially against good defensive teams,

590
00:29:15,280 --> 00:29:18,080
Speaker 1: which Crystal Palace is. But you know, out of possession,

591
00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:20,960
Speaker 1: Lester is a spitting image of Steve Cooper's Nottingham Forest.

592
00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:23,880
Speaker 1: It's by three to two low block. It's very compact

593
00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:26,400
Speaker 1: to reduce that space in between the lines, which is

594
00:29:26,440 --> 00:29:29,120
Speaker 1: what you have to do against Palace, who wants to

595
00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:31,440
Speaker 1: play through the middle. And so far through three matches,

596
00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:34,840
Speaker 1: you know, Leicester from open play situations haven't been bad.

597
00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:36,960
Speaker 1: You know, you'll see that they've created you know, they've

598
00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:39,440
Speaker 1: allowed a little bit over four expected goals. One point

599
00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:41,520
Speaker 1: nine of that is come off a set pieces, so

600
00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:45,760
Speaker 1: they're really struggling in that aspect. Palace has traditionally never

601
00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:49,800
Speaker 1: been a good set piece team, so I think this

602
00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:52,280
Speaker 1: is a tad bit of a stalemate here. You know,

603
00:29:52,800 --> 00:29:55,760
Speaker 1: Palace has been pretty inefficient offensively. They have the second

604
00:29:55,800 --> 00:29:58,440
Speaker 1: lowest x cheaper shot so far in the Premier League.

605
00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:00,960
Speaker 1: Is just kind of they do job getting the final

606
00:30:01,040 --> 00:30:03,520
Speaker 1: third and then they just kind of settle for a

607
00:30:03,600 --> 00:30:06,280
Speaker 1: lot of shots in around that, in around outside the

608
00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:09,560
Speaker 1: eighteen yard box. So I like both team to score no.

609
00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:12,760
Speaker 1: Even money projected this at minus one thirty nine. You know,

610
00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:15,280
Speaker 1: Palace fifty shots but not from outside the box. So

611
00:30:16,800 --> 00:30:19,080
Speaker 1: I think that it's a little bit of a low

612
00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:20,680
Speaker 1: price and I'd rather take the both team to score

613
00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:24,480
Speaker 1: no to protect myself potentially against a Palace you know,

614
00:30:24,560 --> 00:30:25,840
Speaker 1: three three nothing when.

615
00:30:26,560 --> 00:30:27,479
Speaker 3: Anything for you here, sir.

616
00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:33,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, My initial thought, well memory really was that Jamie

617
00:30:33,560 --> 00:30:36,200
Speaker 2: Vardy eagle celebration in front of the Palace fans a

618
00:30:36,200 --> 00:30:39,840
Speaker 2: few years ago after scoring. I am brilliant from him,

619
00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:42,160
Speaker 2: just loves wanding up opposition fans. But that I think

620
00:30:42,200 --> 00:30:44,440
Speaker 2: of that every time I see Palace West Leicester. Brilliant.

621
00:30:44,960 --> 00:30:47,280
Speaker 2: But yeah, you're not going to find Palace at minus

622
00:30:47,360 --> 00:30:50,400
Speaker 2: one sixty seven very often. That's really quite off putting

623
00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:53,880
Speaker 2: for me, even if being anti Leicester feels like the

624
00:30:54,000 --> 00:30:55,880
Speaker 2: right way to go about things at the start of

625
00:30:55,960 --> 00:30:59,480
Speaker 2: this season. But you can't pair Palace win and under

626
00:30:59,480 --> 00:31:01,760
Speaker 2: four point five five goals and that gets us to

627
00:31:02,000 --> 00:31:04,440
Speaker 2: minus one ten and I don't really mind that. I

628
00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:07,320
Speaker 2: think that is how I play this if taking prices

629
00:31:07,360 --> 00:31:09,560
Speaker 2: out of the equation, I'm definitely keen to get behind

630
00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:12,640
Speaker 2: Palace at home against It's Leicester City side. Palace have

631
00:31:12,720 --> 00:31:15,520
Speaker 2: won nine Premier League games against Leicester. That's more wins

632
00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:18,720
Speaker 2: than against any other side they've come up against in

633
00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:21,800
Speaker 2: the competition. So somewhat of a bogie team maybe, so

634
00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:25,040
Speaker 2: to be able to side with that notion that this

635
00:31:25,280 --> 00:31:27,680
Speaker 2: might be a low scoring weekend Palace and on the

636
00:31:27,680 --> 00:31:29,920
Speaker 2: four point five goals in it even so, that's what

637
00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:31,760
Speaker 2: I'm going to hang my hat on. I think they've

638
00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:34,800
Speaker 2: played just one home game so far, lost two nil

639
00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:38,240
Speaker 2: against west Ham and a prey even a fair overall,

640
00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:40,680
Speaker 2: Glass now will be keen to kickstart the season here

641
00:31:40,760 --> 00:31:44,960
Speaker 2: against what is on paper inferior opposition. And at the

642
00:31:45,000 --> 00:31:47,080
Speaker 2: back end of last season if you cash and mine backs,

643
00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:50,040
Speaker 2: Glassners signed off a campaign with four home ins in

644
00:31:50,080 --> 00:31:54,200
Speaker 2: a row, including convincing wins against Newcastle United five nil

645
00:31:54,240 --> 00:31:56,880
Speaker 2: against aston Villa. So more of the same on Saturday

646
00:31:56,920 --> 00:31:58,920
Speaker 2: if they can get back into that kind of river

647
00:31:59,080 --> 00:32:01,920
Speaker 2: at home and we're going to see why the bootmakers

648
00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:04,360
Speaker 2: half them down as minus one six seven shots. So

649
00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:07,760
Speaker 2: for me, Palsen under four point five goes at home

650
00:32:07,880 --> 00:32:08,719
Speaker 2: at minus one ten.

651
00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:13,959
Speaker 3: That brings us to Craven Cottage where Fulhamer plus one

652
00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:18,080
Speaker 3: forty fives like home favorites against west Ham traveling plus

653
00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:21,960
Speaker 3: one eighty five. The draw here is plus two fifty VJ.

654
00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:26,320
Speaker 3: Both these teams are up similar starts, seven points between

655
00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:29,080
Speaker 3: the two of them. Think that they're kind of trending

656
00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:33,520
Speaker 3: towards where we'd see them, you know, in that mid

657
00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:38,360
Speaker 3: mid table slightly on ten to fifteen. That's where they're

658
00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:40,680
Speaker 3: looking right now. But they go about things very differently.

659
00:32:40,760 --> 00:32:44,880
Speaker 3: West Ham has been very high event under their new manager. Meanwhile,

660
00:32:44,960 --> 00:32:47,240
Speaker 3: it's been a pretty low event on the other side,

661
00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:51,960
Speaker 3: with six goals from Fulham's matches combined three four to

662
00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:55,280
Speaker 3: three against and an expected goal's number that's just right

663
00:32:55,320 --> 00:32:59,320
Speaker 3: around there, saying it's pretty appropriate. So this clashes styles too.

664
00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:01,920
Speaker 3: How do you see this one ending up? You know,

665
00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:02,440
Speaker 3: I think the.

666
00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:05,160
Speaker 1: Price is about right here. What I think is utterly

667
00:33:05,240 --> 00:33:07,920
Speaker 1: shocking is how bad west Ham continues to be defensively.

668
00:33:08,240 --> 00:33:09,840
Speaker 1: You know, going into the season, I made a lot

669
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:13,360
Speaker 1: of adjustments to west Ham because obviously they were very

670
00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:14,840
Speaker 1: busy and made a lot of great moves in the

671
00:33:14,880 --> 00:33:19,640
Speaker 1: transfer market, but I also thought that they just could

672
00:33:19,720 --> 00:33:21,920
Speaker 1: not continue to be as bad as as they were

673
00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:26,360
Speaker 1: defensively under David Moyes, and they have they have allowed

674
00:33:26,400 --> 00:33:29,560
Speaker 1: the most expected goals of anybody. They have conceded nine

675
00:33:29,680 --> 00:33:32,640
Speaker 1: fast break shots. That's two more than any other team

676
00:33:32,680 --> 00:33:36,360
Speaker 1: in the Premier League. That is particularly concerning given the

677
00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:38,440
Speaker 1: situation that they're in right now, because they're going to

678
00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:41,200
Speaker 1: place a full Fullham team that primarily plays at their

679
00:33:41,240 --> 00:33:44,320
Speaker 1: best in transition. So for me, I think the price

680
00:33:44,360 --> 00:33:45,680
Speaker 1: is about right, you know, for this to open, it

681
00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:47,720
Speaker 1: open up just like a straight pick them. And I

682
00:33:47,760 --> 00:33:49,560
Speaker 1: think when we got off the podcast last time I

683
00:33:49,640 --> 00:33:51,040
Speaker 1: was I told you guys, I was like, I think

684
00:33:51,120 --> 00:33:52,680
Speaker 1: that that price is a little short on Fulham, but

685
00:33:52,680 --> 00:33:54,720
Speaker 1: I never ended up playing playing it because I'm a coward.

686
00:33:55,080 --> 00:33:57,400
Speaker 1: And now we're in this zone where I think that

687
00:33:58,160 --> 00:34:02,080
Speaker 1: the price is about right. You know Fulham as well. Boy,

688
00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:05,200
Speaker 1: they they have no ball stopping in the middle of

689
00:34:05,280 --> 00:34:08,440
Speaker 1: the pitch, like they really really miss Paulinia, So you know,

690
00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:10,319
Speaker 1: you could see goals in this one, a little bit

691
00:34:10,360 --> 00:34:14,239
Speaker 1: more back and forth potentially, But for me, I think

692
00:34:14,280 --> 00:34:16,640
Speaker 1: the price is about right. So I'm just gonna pass,

693
00:34:17,239 --> 00:34:17,560
Speaker 1: all right.

694
00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:20,640
Speaker 3: And that brings us to the headliner, Baby in the

695
00:34:20,719 --> 00:34:24,719
Speaker 3: Park minus two ten on Aston Villa against Everton the top.

696
00:34:24,800 --> 00:34:27,359
Speaker 3: He's traveling plus five fifty. The draw here is plus

697
00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:29,960
Speaker 3: three forty. The less we say about Everden's last time

698
00:34:30,040 --> 00:34:33,560
Speaker 3: out the better, So we'll just pretend what happened, by the.

699
00:34:33,560 --> 00:34:35,839
Speaker 1: Way, for those maybe just a match.

700
00:34:35,920 --> 00:34:38,560
Speaker 3: What happened to Michael is a run of the mill lost.

701
00:34:38,840 --> 00:34:41,640
Speaker 3: You lose games, sometimes you lose matches. You know, every

702
00:34:41,680 --> 00:34:42,200
Speaker 3: time you.

703
00:34:42,239 --> 00:34:44,600
Speaker 1: Lose, it's just it's you know, it's your points and

704
00:34:44,680 --> 00:34:46,680
Speaker 1: it's no different than losing you know, three mil away

705
00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:47,960
Speaker 1: to City, no different, you.

706
00:34:47,960 --> 00:34:51,919
Speaker 3: Know exactly flush it, move on, get ready for Aston Villa.

707
00:34:52,400 --> 00:34:54,920
Speaker 3: I will say right before you know that that weekend

708
00:34:55,280 --> 00:34:58,440
Speaker 3: we said like Everton value side, but you have to

709
00:34:58,480 --> 00:35:01,480
Speaker 3: be pretty brave soul to bet them in that match

710
00:35:01,480 --> 00:35:03,680
Speaker 3: against Tournmouth. I think that was spot on right, like

711
00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:06,360
Speaker 3: they were up to nothing and you, if you were

712
00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:08,920
Speaker 3: betting Everted, you're feeling pretty good and then you realize,

713
00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:10,520
Speaker 3: oh no, you did have to be a brave soul

714
00:35:10,600 --> 00:35:13,160
Speaker 3: because the last ten minutes of that match are harrowing

715
00:35:13,400 --> 00:35:16,080
Speaker 3: and something you won't forget as a punter for the

716
00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:19,280
Speaker 3: rest of your life. But in betting, it's all about

717
00:35:19,320 --> 00:35:22,759
Speaker 3: buying low and it's really hard to it's really hard

718
00:35:22,800 --> 00:35:24,960
Speaker 3: to buy at a lower spot than out of team

719
00:35:25,000 --> 00:35:30,399
Speaker 3: that's zero three just blue historically in the Premier League

720
00:35:30,680 --> 00:35:35,880
Speaker 3: a minus eight goal difference. But there are somethings percolating

721
00:35:35,960 --> 00:35:38,680
Speaker 3: under the system, under the surface, PJ that point to

722
00:35:38,719 --> 00:35:40,480
Speaker 3: Everden being a little bit better than their record.

723
00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:41,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, at least I hope.

724
00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:45,680
Speaker 3: So yeah, so it's got to be the Toffees here, like, yeah.

725
00:35:45,840 --> 00:35:47,759
Speaker 1: I'll be on that, I'll be on the Toffees money line.

726
00:35:48,040 --> 00:35:49,720
Speaker 1: But for those who maybe don't want.

727
00:35:49,600 --> 00:35:54,640
Speaker 2: To do that, I wouldn't blame you, man, I'm sure.

728
00:35:55,040 --> 00:35:57,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm sure people are gonna have to stop listening

729
00:35:57,600 --> 00:35:59,759
Speaker 1: this podcast because we just come on every week and say, oh,

730
00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:01,960
Speaker 1: TENHS value side. But I actually kind of like both

731
00:36:02,000 --> 00:36:03,960
Speaker 1: teams to score minus one twenty. It's kind of a

732
00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:08,160
Speaker 1: low price for me here. What was utterly shocking, Michael though,

733
00:36:09,000 --> 00:36:12,520
Speaker 1: going back rewatching looking at all of the statistics from

734
00:36:12,560 --> 00:36:16,439
Speaker 1: the match, Everton allowed eight crosses to be completed into

735
00:36:16,440 --> 00:36:20,240
Speaker 1: their penalty area. For context, everybody out there, teams typically

736
00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:23,319
Speaker 1: concede about two crosses per ninety into their penalty area,

737
00:36:23,560 --> 00:36:28,120
Speaker 1: so eight is utterly like disgraceful and if you watch

738
00:36:28,160 --> 00:36:30,719
Speaker 1: it like five or six of them were in the

739
00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:34,360
Speaker 1: final ten minutes. So I just I don't know what

740
00:36:34,520 --> 00:36:37,719
Speaker 1: happened mainly from Everton. I'll talk about it more when

741
00:36:37,719 --> 00:36:39,720
Speaker 1: we talk about Burnemouth and Chelsea what I think Bournemouth

742
00:36:39,760 --> 00:36:42,040
Speaker 1: did to actually get to those type of opportunities. But

743
00:36:43,040 --> 00:36:47,600
Speaker 1: Unayamori is a great tactician and he will definitely try

744
00:36:47,640 --> 00:36:50,000
Speaker 1: to overload the wide areas and he will definitely try

745
00:36:50,040 --> 00:36:52,440
Speaker 1: to send in crosses and kind of the I don't

746
00:36:52,480 --> 00:36:55,480
Speaker 1: want to say the blueprint is out. It's on Everton's defense.

747
00:36:55,560 --> 00:36:57,839
Speaker 1: I think that dysch just needs to figure a few

748
00:36:57,880 --> 00:37:00,399
Speaker 1: things out. But you know, Everton forever as a high

749
00:37:00,440 --> 00:37:02,680
Speaker 1: to mid block team that really was good at denying

750
00:37:02,719 --> 00:37:05,080
Speaker 1: space for the middle. Well, now teams are trying to

751
00:37:05,120 --> 00:37:07,919
Speaker 1: overload wide areas, they're stretching Everyton's defensive block and they're

752
00:37:07,960 --> 00:37:10,040
Speaker 1: creating space in the middle right, and showed that in

753
00:37:10,120 --> 00:37:12,560
Speaker 1: match week one, and teams are kind of copying that

754
00:37:12,680 --> 00:37:14,680
Speaker 1: over and over again. So I think the loss of

755
00:37:14,719 --> 00:37:17,040
Speaker 1: Onnana is probably key in that aspect because he was

756
00:37:17,120 --> 00:37:19,040
Speaker 1: so good at, you know, playing a bunch of different

757
00:37:19,080 --> 00:37:19,480
Speaker 1: roles there.

758
00:37:19,600 --> 00:37:21,040
Speaker 3: So we'll see.

759
00:37:21,080 --> 00:37:23,400
Speaker 1: And also I just think everything needs brainthway back, like

760
00:37:23,520 --> 00:37:25,960
Speaker 1: really really badly, Like Michael Keane just can't do it

761
00:37:26,040 --> 00:37:28,040
Speaker 1: at this point and Breathwait is just so much better

762
00:37:28,120 --> 00:37:31,879
Speaker 1: than him. So, you know, from a Villa perspective though,

763
00:37:32,960 --> 00:37:35,239
Speaker 1: last season, you know, we talk about Everton and we

764
00:37:35,239 --> 00:37:36,759
Speaker 1: always got to talk about set pieces and then they

765
00:37:36,800 --> 00:37:40,759
Speaker 1: scored one off of set piece against Bournemouth. Villa was

766
00:37:40,840 --> 00:37:43,239
Speaker 1: dead last and next week per set piece allowed last season.

767
00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:45,719
Speaker 1: They've been much better through three matches this season, but

768
00:37:45,800 --> 00:37:50,840
Speaker 1: they've only had four set pieces essentially against them so far. Everton.

769
00:37:51,040 --> 00:37:54,680
Speaker 1: If they get behind, they will still press and they

770
00:37:54,719 --> 00:37:57,120
Speaker 1: are still an effective pressing team out of their high block.

771
00:37:57,160 --> 00:38:00,120
Speaker 1: They were top five and high turnovers last season. They

772
00:38:00,160 --> 00:38:03,040
Speaker 1: did look a little more dangerous in transition against Bournemouth here,

773
00:38:03,560 --> 00:38:05,319
Speaker 1: for you know, a Villa side that's going to build

774
00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:07,400
Speaker 1: out of the back and you know leave themselves at

775
00:38:07,440 --> 00:38:09,680
Speaker 1: tad vulnerable to maybe get turned over for those easy

776
00:38:09,760 --> 00:38:12,719
Speaker 1: transition opportunities. I think both teams to score at minus

777
00:38:12,760 --> 00:38:15,960
Speaker 1: one twenty is a tad low here. So I like that,

778
00:38:16,719 --> 00:38:19,600
Speaker 1: and of course, I mean, just like here's the thing.

779
00:38:20,320 --> 00:38:22,160
Speaker 1: Is Villa a better team than Everton? Of course they

780
00:38:22,160 --> 00:38:24,840
Speaker 1: are but every underlying metric tells you last season that

781
00:38:24,960 --> 00:38:28,640
Speaker 1: Villa drastically overperformed and Everton drastically underperformed, And actually they're

782
00:38:28,640 --> 00:38:32,600
Speaker 1: a lot closer than these odds would suggest. I mean,

783
00:38:32,680 --> 00:38:34,680
Speaker 1: this is the same This is getting close to the

784
00:38:34,719 --> 00:38:39,239
Speaker 1: same price as Tottenham versus Everton as well. So I mean,

785
00:38:39,680 --> 00:38:41,239
Speaker 1: you know, if you believe it aston Ville is a

786
00:38:41,280 --> 00:38:44,400
Speaker 1: better team than Tottenham right now, then okay, sure, go ahead.

787
00:38:44,480 --> 00:38:47,959
Speaker 1: But for me, I'll be on the Everton money line.

788
00:38:48,520 --> 00:38:50,359
Speaker 1: It's just gonna be Michael, It's gonna be satisfying when

789
00:38:50,360 --> 00:38:52,359
Speaker 1: we cash one of these. It might take until match

790
00:38:52,400 --> 00:38:55,520
Speaker 1: week thirty to get one, but we're gonna get there eventually,

791
00:38:55,600 --> 00:38:56,359
Speaker 1: one of these big ones.

792
00:38:58,360 --> 00:39:01,560
Speaker 3: If you are looking for another way in, I'm gonna

793
00:39:01,560 --> 00:39:03,040
Speaker 3: do nine. I think you can get it like six,

794
00:39:03,160 --> 00:39:06,480
Speaker 3: six and a half to one. Score No, No, Ross Barkley,

795
00:39:06,520 --> 00:39:08,640
Speaker 3: who I don't think he's a lick yet this year

796
00:39:08,680 --> 00:39:10,000
Speaker 3: he's he's well.

797
00:39:11,360 --> 00:39:14,280
Speaker 1: Look ahead. Aston Villa has got Champions League on Tuesday,

798
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:16,120
Speaker 1: got travel in Switzerland.

799
00:39:16,200 --> 00:39:19,520
Speaker 3: Amen, I know, yep, this is this is it, Sam,

800
00:39:19,640 --> 00:39:22,200
Speaker 3: this is the spot evident off the mark here.

801
00:39:22,200 --> 00:39:24,080
Speaker 1: Well, I don't think ever since players played too much

802
00:39:24,160 --> 00:39:25,719
Speaker 1: on an international duty this week.

803
00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:27,400
Speaker 3: There's that.

804
00:39:29,840 --> 00:39:33,000
Speaker 2: I'm not taking the ever money line. I know you've

805
00:39:33,080 --> 00:39:35,440
Speaker 2: got this weird thing on the pod where you kind

806
00:39:35,440 --> 00:39:37,800
Speaker 2: of flat with Everton here and that, but I'm not

807
00:39:38,040 --> 00:39:41,200
Speaker 2: quite maybe we are married.

808
00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:43,239
Speaker 3: No, this is a this is a toxic This is

809
00:39:43,320 --> 00:39:46,160
Speaker 3: a toxic, toxic relationship, toxic. But I tell you what

810
00:39:46,840 --> 00:39:51,399
Speaker 3: that that that October twenty twenty three or twenty twenty

811
00:39:51,440 --> 00:39:53,239
Speaker 3: three was that was, you know, the height of the

812
00:39:53,320 --> 00:39:55,440
Speaker 3: relationship when they just never they looked like they were

813
00:39:55,480 --> 00:39:56,200
Speaker 3: going to win the league.

814
00:39:56,600 --> 00:40:00,759
Speaker 2: So and life's just been down there ever since Evans.

815
00:40:00,840 --> 00:40:05,600
Speaker 1: And they will get a point since oh yes, yeah,

816
00:40:05,800 --> 00:40:07,759
Speaker 1: they will get a points deduction. Their lawyers won't be

817
00:40:07,800 --> 00:40:09,279
Speaker 1: able to find a loophole like Lester did.

818
00:40:09,600 --> 00:40:10,399
Speaker 3: They will get a point.

819
00:40:11,480 --> 00:40:14,239
Speaker 2: And you guessed the last Evan player to score a

820
00:40:14,320 --> 00:40:17,200
Speaker 2: league go at Villa Park twenty sixteen.

821
00:40:17,880 --> 00:40:24,200
Speaker 3: Kevin Moralis, No close, Leanne Curry.

822
00:40:24,719 --> 00:40:30,440
Speaker 2: Oh wow, March t sixteen. I've scored one goal against

823
00:40:30,480 --> 00:40:34,600
Speaker 2: Auston Villa in their previous seven league meetings. Villa are

824
00:40:34,760 --> 00:40:38,720
Speaker 2: really short minus two hundred, like BJ said, first Champions

825
00:40:38,800 --> 00:40:41,640
Speaker 2: League game and only a few days after this picture,

826
00:40:41,719 --> 00:40:44,560
Speaker 2: young boys in Switzerland. Will that affect the lineup or

827
00:40:44,600 --> 00:40:47,719
Speaker 2: the temple here, especially in the closing stages, I'm not sure.

828
00:40:48,080 --> 00:40:51,560
Speaker 2: Maybe plenty of positives to take from the game against

829
00:40:51,600 --> 00:40:53,400
Speaker 2: Bournemouth forever, and it's fair to say they were the

830
00:40:53,440 --> 00:40:57,880
Speaker 2: better team definitely until the last six minutes, maybe to

831
00:40:57,960 --> 00:41:02,160
Speaker 2: the last like twenty minutes or so, But regardless, I'm

832
00:41:02,200 --> 00:41:05,440
Speaker 2: not interested in backing them, to be honest, I'm much

833
00:41:05,520 --> 00:41:09,720
Speaker 2: more comfortable with thinking this matchup might be as fiery

834
00:41:09,920 --> 00:41:14,520
Speaker 2: as it usually is. Craig Porson is in charge as

835
00:41:14,880 --> 00:41:18,799
Speaker 2: the ref as a box ticked games can run away

836
00:41:18,840 --> 00:41:21,080
Speaker 2: from him, and he's happy to this out bookings when

837
00:41:21,120 --> 00:41:25,440
Speaker 2: that happens, So I like, I forgot to tell you

838
00:41:25,560 --> 00:41:28,200
Speaker 2: my actual bet. It's over four point five Asian cars

839
00:41:28,239 --> 00:41:31,480
Speaker 2: at minus one ten, so I think I like bookings here.

840
00:41:31,920 --> 00:41:35,200
Speaker 2: He averaged Craig Porson four point sixty five cards per

841
00:41:35,320 --> 00:41:39,000
Speaker 2: ninety in all competitions last season, and a desperate for

842
00:41:39,080 --> 00:41:42,040
Speaker 2: a win, desperate for a point, need points badly. That

843
00:41:42,280 --> 00:41:45,920
Speaker 2: desperation is handy for a bookings base bet. Rock bottom

844
00:41:45,920 --> 00:41:48,200
Speaker 2: of the Premier League, they're going to scrap to try

845
00:41:48,239 --> 00:41:51,400
Speaker 2: and leave fill a park with something either side possesses

846
00:41:51,440 --> 00:41:54,640
Speaker 2: the personnel that will get stuck in. You think of Takowski,

847
00:41:54,880 --> 00:41:59,520
Speaker 2: Young coleman O'nana against his old club John McGinn. Villa

848
00:41:59,600 --> 00:42:01,919
Speaker 2: have received the second most yellow cards in the league

849
00:42:01,960 --> 00:42:05,320
Speaker 2: this season with eight. Everton I've only received three somehow,

850
00:42:05,440 --> 00:42:09,280
Speaker 2: so perhaps that's why the card prices are palatable. Everton

851
00:42:09,400 --> 00:42:12,000
Speaker 2: averaged two point one six cards per ninety last term

852
00:42:12,120 --> 00:42:15,080
Speaker 2: and nearly identical in the campaign before that, whereas Villa

853
00:42:15,200 --> 00:42:18,640
Speaker 2: they're consistently good performers in terms of receiving cards. So

854
00:42:19,239 --> 00:42:21,359
Speaker 2: I've ended up on the Asian cards line over four

855
00:42:21,400 --> 00:42:23,680
Speaker 2: point five at minus one ten. I thought that may

856
00:42:23,760 --> 00:42:25,799
Speaker 2: have been over five point five. But I can see

857
00:42:25,800 --> 00:42:28,879
Speaker 2: a really scrappy kind of fiery game here where where

858
00:42:28,920 --> 00:42:31,839
Speaker 2: both sides may be fancy taking something from Villa Park.

859
00:42:31,960 --> 00:42:36,400
Speaker 2: So yeah, hoping for an energetic one on the weekend.

860
00:42:36,600 --> 00:42:40,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, you should get there as you noticed, like there's Onnana.

861
00:42:40,080 --> 00:42:43,080
Speaker 3: Isn't the only one with ties to both clubs here?

862
00:42:43,160 --> 00:42:45,719
Speaker 3: Like this is It's weird how many players in this

863
00:42:45,840 --> 00:42:50,239
Speaker 3: match I have played for both actually young Onnana, Russ

864
00:42:50,280 --> 00:42:54,000
Speaker 3: Barkley if he gets in, tim or Bullam for Everton,

865
00:42:54,840 --> 00:42:59,359
Speaker 3: you go down list Ghana. It's pretty crazy between these two,

866
00:42:59,440 --> 00:43:01,359
Speaker 3: so it could be just one of those weird ones

867
00:43:01,400 --> 00:43:05,799
Speaker 3: where guys are just flying in and Lucas Sina. Okay,

868
00:43:05,840 --> 00:43:09,960
Speaker 3: that's a twelve thirty kickoff on Saturday, a rare Saturday,

869
00:43:10,000 --> 00:43:13,000
Speaker 3: three pm Eastern Time kickoff in the States, eight pm

870
00:43:13,360 --> 00:43:17,239
Speaker 3: Prime Time under the lights. Bournemouth and Chelsea. Bournemouth plus

871
00:43:17,320 --> 00:43:19,800
Speaker 3: two twenty Chelsea plus twe oh five. The draw is

872
00:43:19,880 --> 00:43:22,200
Speaker 3: plus two eighty five. We've been dumming on about this

873
00:43:22,280 --> 00:43:28,600
Speaker 3: Bournemouth team for preseason. Through the first three weeks they've delivered.

874
00:43:29,239 --> 00:43:33,200
Speaker 3: Unfortunately that continued two weeks ago at Goodison Park, but

875
00:43:33,680 --> 00:43:35,520
Speaker 3: now they're plus two twenty at home to a Chelsea

876
00:43:35,640 --> 00:43:38,600
Speaker 3: side that I think is still gettable, despite I think

877
00:43:38,800 --> 00:43:42,000
Speaker 3: being better looking better than maybe we were gonna we

878
00:43:42,080 --> 00:43:44,720
Speaker 3: were prepared to give them credit for before the season.

879
00:43:45,160 --> 00:43:46,919
Speaker 3: But I still think this price in Bournemouth at home

880
00:43:47,239 --> 00:43:50,960
Speaker 3: is playable. Sam. So we'll be on uh and dony

881
00:43:51,000 --> 00:43:53,080
Speaker 3: E Roola and the revolution continues.

882
00:43:53,440 --> 00:43:55,880
Speaker 2: Yes quickly, by the way, eight pm kickoff on a

883
00:43:55,920 --> 00:43:59,600
Speaker 2: Saturday after the international break. That's just cruel, Like Skoy Sports,

884
00:44:00,719 --> 00:44:03,600
Speaker 2: the cop blood on their hands as a fan as well,

885
00:44:03,680 --> 00:44:06,160
Speaker 2: imagine that it's not too big of a trip, but

886
00:44:06,280 --> 00:44:08,600
Speaker 2: Chelsea fans heading to Bournemouth for that late they definitely

887
00:44:08,600 --> 00:44:11,400
Speaker 2: won't get the last training so yeah, night man. Anyway,

888
00:44:11,719 --> 00:44:14,680
Speaker 2: love Bournemouth, big fan. Obviously, we were massively hot on

889
00:44:14,719 --> 00:44:17,440
Speaker 2: them in our preview show. The plus they'll put five

890
00:44:17,520 --> 00:44:20,200
Speaker 2: vision handicap was very much on my short list for

891
00:44:20,280 --> 00:44:23,360
Speaker 2: the show this week, But the more I thought about it,

892
00:44:23,920 --> 00:44:27,719
Speaker 2: posting a national break where Bornemos's best players Sameno, Watara

893
00:44:27,960 --> 00:44:31,680
Speaker 2: Cliver all on international duty and Chelsea with their abundance

894
00:44:31,719 --> 00:44:34,759
Speaker 2: of talent, obviously had many many players away too. But

895
00:44:34,960 --> 00:44:38,120
Speaker 2: just like the depth in their ranks which is well known,

896
00:44:38,800 --> 00:44:40,880
Speaker 2: they now possessed the ability to make a load of

897
00:44:41,000 --> 00:44:43,399
Speaker 2: changes and have the freshest eleven in the Premier League.

898
00:44:43,680 --> 00:44:46,040
Speaker 2: Posting a national break, you'd have to say if they

899
00:44:46,120 --> 00:44:48,960
Speaker 2: really wanted. So it's made me back off the home

900
00:44:49,080 --> 00:44:51,440
Speaker 2: side a little bit. In all honesty, I'm not as

901
00:44:51,480 --> 00:44:54,080
Speaker 2: bullish on them as I was before I really delved

902
00:44:54,080 --> 00:44:58,680
Speaker 2: into this and had a thing about it pre international break. Yeah,

903
00:44:58,719 --> 00:45:01,240
Speaker 2: bournemouths come back win over them. Touched on it briefly

904
00:45:01,280 --> 00:45:04,839
Speaker 2: there to be tuning down away from home and then

905
00:45:05,000 --> 00:45:08,320
Speaker 2: scoring the eighty seventh, ninety second and ninety six minute.

906
00:45:08,320 --> 00:45:11,560
Speaker 2: It takes real character determination to get something like that

907
00:45:11,640 --> 00:45:13,960
Speaker 2: over the line. In the Premier League, they can be

908
00:45:14,080 --> 00:45:17,160
Speaker 2: great and they have an abundance of fight when they

909
00:45:17,239 --> 00:45:21,040
Speaker 2: really want to, just like Iriola's rail Vacano, who certainly

910
00:45:21,120 --> 00:45:23,719
Speaker 2: had that edge to them. Bornemouth for un beating in

911
00:45:23,760 --> 00:45:26,200
Speaker 2: all three of the Premier League games so far this season.

912
00:45:26,440 --> 00:45:28,920
Speaker 2: They've never gone full without defeat from the start of

913
00:45:28,920 --> 00:45:31,759
Speaker 2: the Premier League campaign actually, and I'm just a little

914
00:45:31,760 --> 00:45:35,200
Speaker 2: bit concerned about Chelsea's ability to rotate. So yeah, I

915
00:45:35,360 --> 00:45:37,320
Speaker 2: like the price, I like the line. I'm just a

916
00:45:37,400 --> 00:45:40,680
Speaker 2: little bit cautious because if there's a scenario where Chelsea's

917
00:45:40,719 --> 00:45:43,680
Speaker 2: blowing squad comes in handy for Maresca it is right now,

918
00:45:44,120 --> 00:45:47,440
Speaker 2: but Bournemouth somewhat tentatively on the Asian line for me

919
00:45:48,080 --> 00:45:49,880
Speaker 2: plus zero PUNP five BJ.

920
00:45:50,239 --> 00:45:53,920
Speaker 1: I'll be on Bournemouth here. I think that the situation

921
00:45:54,480 --> 00:45:57,600
Speaker 1: is interesting right because Bournemouth, if you look through their

922
00:45:57,640 --> 00:46:01,279
Speaker 1: first three matches, the style of teams they've played have

923
00:46:01,400 --> 00:46:04,080
Speaker 1: been pretty much the most direct teams in the Premier League.

924
00:46:04,200 --> 00:46:09,759
Speaker 1: K Notingham, Forest, Everton, and Newcastle. Now they finally get

925
00:46:09,800 --> 00:46:14,160
Speaker 1: to deploy Eiola's high press, which gave them this massive

926
00:46:14,160 --> 00:46:16,720
Speaker 1: amount of success over the second half of the season.

927
00:46:16,760 --> 00:46:20,120
Speaker 1: And you know, the press is really designed to pin

928
00:46:20,239 --> 00:46:22,080
Speaker 1: teams to one side of the pitch, and if you

929
00:46:22,120 --> 00:46:24,759
Speaker 1: know anything about Maresca, he likes short passes to play

930
00:46:24,800 --> 00:46:28,640
Speaker 1: through team's pressure. This will be his first big tests

931
00:46:28,680 --> 00:46:31,120
Speaker 1: in doing that as the Chelsea manager. You know, City

932
00:46:31,200 --> 00:46:33,600
Speaker 1: didn't really press them high that much. They've faced a

933
00:46:33,719 --> 00:46:37,400
Speaker 1: bad press in Wolves and then they obviously faced Crystal

934
00:46:37,440 --> 00:46:39,799
Speaker 1: Palace who was playing a five through two mid block

935
00:46:39,880 --> 00:46:42,800
Speaker 1: for most of the match. So I think that's a

936
00:46:42,880 --> 00:46:46,880
Speaker 1: really interesting aspect of how Chelsea plays. I'll say this

937
00:46:47,000 --> 00:46:50,120
Speaker 1: to my dying breath is that Chelsea structured right now,

938
00:46:50,280 --> 00:46:52,759
Speaker 1: is a way better transition team than a team that

939
00:46:52,840 --> 00:46:54,239
Speaker 1: tries to build out of the back. And you have

940
00:46:54,400 --> 00:46:56,480
Speaker 1: seen that over and over and over again. That's why

941
00:46:56,520 --> 00:46:58,719
Speaker 1: they got so good under poach Tino towards the end

942
00:46:58,760 --> 00:47:01,080
Speaker 1: of last season. If they try to continue to build

943
00:47:01,080 --> 00:47:03,320
Speaker 1: out of the back here, I think that Bournemouth is

944
00:47:03,360 --> 00:47:05,920
Speaker 1: going to cause them a lot of problems, especially with

945
00:47:06,080 --> 00:47:08,759
Speaker 1: it being on the South coast. The other aspect for

946
00:47:08,840 --> 00:47:11,160
Speaker 1: Bournemouth is is they are a very dangerous transition team

947
00:47:11,560 --> 00:47:13,680
Speaker 1: and what they were kind of doing Michael towards the

948
00:47:13,760 --> 00:47:16,600
Speaker 1: end of the match against Everton is they kept trying

949
00:47:16,640 --> 00:47:18,040
Speaker 1: to play through the middle and Everton was doing a

950
00:47:18,040 --> 00:47:20,359
Speaker 1: good job at denying them and playing through there. They

951
00:47:20,480 --> 00:47:23,200
Speaker 1: continue to have wide overloads over and over again, but

952
00:47:24,120 --> 00:47:26,600
Speaker 1: it's obviously a scary proposition, right to try and beat

953
00:47:26,600 --> 00:47:28,560
Speaker 1: Everton with crosses, which with how good they are in

954
00:47:28,640 --> 00:47:30,319
Speaker 1: the air. But it got to the point where they

955
00:47:30,320 --> 00:47:32,239
Speaker 1: were down to nothing and they had all these wide

956
00:47:32,280 --> 00:47:34,160
Speaker 1: overloads and they were just like, well, I guess we

957
00:47:34,239 --> 00:47:35,800
Speaker 1: just got to start sending a crosses because we have

958
00:47:35,920 --> 00:47:36,920
Speaker 1: no other route to go.

959
00:47:37,320 --> 00:47:37,839
Speaker 2: And it worked.

960
00:47:38,520 --> 00:47:41,080
Speaker 1: So when they go out and transition, they like to

961
00:47:41,080 --> 00:47:42,799
Speaker 1: get their fullbacks high. They like to get those two

962
00:47:42,880 --> 00:47:45,480
Speaker 1: v ones against the opposing full back and they're really

963
00:47:45,560 --> 00:47:48,600
Speaker 1: successful at doing that. Chelsea is most likely going to

964
00:47:48,600 --> 00:47:50,759
Speaker 1: be without Gusto Rhece James is still injured, so they

965
00:47:50,800 --> 00:47:54,279
Speaker 1: don't have really a true right back on their roster

966
00:47:54,480 --> 00:47:57,040
Speaker 1: right now, which if you're going to play against Burnemouth pressed,

967
00:47:57,040 --> 00:47:59,000
Speaker 1: you're gonna have to do a lot of switchballs to

968
00:47:59,080 --> 00:48:00,719
Speaker 1: the other side of the pitch, so if you don't

969
00:48:00,760 --> 00:48:02,919
Speaker 1: have one of your best fullbacks on one side, Borne

970
00:48:03,080 --> 00:48:04,600
Speaker 1: is probably going to continue to try to pin you

971
00:48:04,680 --> 00:48:07,000
Speaker 1: into that side and force that right back to actually

972
00:48:07,440 --> 00:48:09,280
Speaker 1: make you know, whoever's gonna be playing there to actually,

973
00:48:09,360 --> 00:48:12,680
Speaker 1: you know, make that type of pass. So I like

974
00:48:12,800 --> 00:48:15,440
Speaker 1: Bournemouth here. I think this is a good spot for

975
00:48:15,520 --> 00:48:17,439
Speaker 1: them at home to deploy their high press and cause

976
00:48:17,520 --> 00:48:20,720
Speaker 1: Chelsea a lot of problems. So I like the value

977
00:48:20,760 --> 00:48:22,480
Speaker 1: on them at plus one oh five and one more

978
00:48:22,560 --> 00:48:25,560
Speaker 1: thing final thirteen matches at home for Bournemouth last season.

979
00:48:25,560 --> 00:48:28,319
Speaker 1: They obviously had the difficult stretch to begin They had

980
00:48:28,320 --> 00:48:30,759
Speaker 1: a plus nine point one expect a gold differential. They

981
00:48:30,800 --> 00:48:33,600
Speaker 1: only lost three matches, which was to Liverpool City and

982
00:48:33,680 --> 00:48:35,960
Speaker 1: then the second to last match of the season against Brentford.

983
00:48:35,960 --> 00:48:37,799
Speaker 1: They are very very good. They've been very very good

984
00:48:37,840 --> 00:48:40,879
Speaker 1: at home under Eiola, so I like them plus a half.

985
00:48:41,719 --> 00:48:44,640
Speaker 3: Wolverhampton and Newcastle now to wrap up the Premier League

986
00:48:45,120 --> 00:48:47,719
Speaker 3: match tweak. Wolves are plus two to twenty five at

987
00:48:47,719 --> 00:48:50,359
Speaker 3: the mull and Newcastle plus one to ten. The draw

988
00:48:50,440 --> 00:48:54,320
Speaker 3: here is plus two sixty five. EJ feels a little trappy,

989
00:48:54,400 --> 00:48:56,360
Speaker 3: but I like the price on Newcastle leving on the

990
00:48:56,440 --> 00:49:01,440
Speaker 3: road two. I think it's they're just I think miles

991
00:49:01,520 --> 00:49:08,719
Speaker 3: better than Wolverhampton should start getting healthier. We both were

992
00:49:09,440 --> 00:49:12,759
Speaker 3: kind of predicting an ascent from Newcastle challenging at least

993
00:49:12,800 --> 00:49:15,439
Speaker 3: top four. I wouldn't be surprised if we started seeing

994
00:49:15,480 --> 00:49:18,960
Speaker 3: them just kind of going a run starting pretty soon here.

995
00:49:19,000 --> 00:49:21,600
Speaker 3: So I like Newcastle anything better than even money. What

996
00:49:21,760 --> 00:49:22,040
Speaker 3: about you?

997
00:49:22,480 --> 00:49:25,160
Speaker 1: This line's bothering me a lot, Michael, and I'll tell

998
00:49:25,200 --> 00:49:28,879
Speaker 1: you why. So Chelsea just went to Wolves in match

999
00:49:28,920 --> 00:49:31,799
Speaker 1: week two. They were laying minus one thirty and they

1000
00:49:31,840 --> 00:49:33,520
Speaker 1: hammered them six to two. I know what the final

1001
00:49:33,560 --> 00:49:34,920
Speaker 1: ext she was. But if you watch the match with

1002
00:49:35,000 --> 00:49:37,640
Speaker 1: Chelsea hammer them, and now we're getting Newcastle at plus

1003
00:49:37,719 --> 00:49:40,120
Speaker 1: one ten when every single expected metric would tell you

1004
00:49:40,280 --> 00:49:42,279
Speaker 1: that last season and even coming into this season that

1005
00:49:42,320 --> 00:49:45,080
Speaker 1: they're pretty much on par maybe even better than Chelsea

1006
00:49:45,200 --> 00:49:47,440
Speaker 1: right now? So why are we getting a forty cent

1007
00:49:47,560 --> 00:49:50,680
Speaker 1: discount on a team that's even from what Chelsea did?

1008
00:49:50,719 --> 00:49:52,680
Speaker 1: After what Chelsea did with Wolves. I have a lot

1009
00:49:52,719 --> 00:49:55,200
Speaker 1: of respect for Gary O'Neil. I think he's a great tactician.

1010
00:49:55,239 --> 00:49:57,160
Speaker 1: I think he's very good. He's been put into a

1011
00:49:57,200 --> 00:49:59,239
Speaker 1: difficult situation and he's made the most of it. From

1012
00:49:59,360 --> 00:50:04,040
Speaker 1: January for on, last season Wolves had the worst non

1013
00:50:04,160 --> 00:50:06,560
Speaker 1: penalty expected gold of French in the Premier League, worse

1014
00:50:06,600 --> 00:50:10,320
Speaker 1: than Newtontown, worse than Sheffield, worse than Burnley. They drastically

1015
00:50:10,360 --> 00:50:13,400
Speaker 1: overpormed defensively because they're a good box defending team, and

1016
00:50:13,719 --> 00:50:18,080
Speaker 1: Jose Saw drastically overperformed as a keeper. You're starting to

1017
00:50:18,120 --> 00:50:20,920
Speaker 1: see some regression from him, especially in that match against Chelsea.

1018
00:50:22,280 --> 00:50:25,279
Speaker 1: Newcastle hammered Wolves in both meetings. They drew too too

1019
00:50:25,320 --> 00:50:27,600
Speaker 1: at the maulnew last season, but they created well over

1020
00:50:27,680 --> 00:50:31,080
Speaker 1: to expected goals. They were constantly finding space in through

1021
00:50:31,120 --> 00:50:33,800
Speaker 1: the middle and pulling Wolve's defensive block out of position.

1022
00:50:33,920 --> 00:50:36,680
Speaker 1: They just conceded a couple of goals late and that

1023
00:50:36,840 --> 00:50:39,280
Speaker 1: was also when Newcastle was going through their very difficult

1024
00:50:39,360 --> 00:50:42,920
Speaker 1: run of injuries and Champions League fixedure pile up. And

1025
00:50:43,080 --> 00:50:45,560
Speaker 1: then once we got towards the end last season, Newcastle hammered.

1026
00:50:45,600 --> 00:50:48,560
Speaker 1: I'm three to nothing at Saint James Park, So for me,

1027
00:50:49,120 --> 00:50:51,640
Speaker 1: I think this Wolves team has shown that they are

1028
00:50:51,760 --> 00:50:54,080
Speaker 1: definitely worse than they were last season with no Max

1029
00:50:54,160 --> 00:50:58,360
Speaker 1: Killman no patron Nato. I like the price on Newcastle.

1030
00:50:58,719 --> 00:51:00,960
Speaker 1: I think plus one tennis short. I had them projected

1031
00:51:00,960 --> 00:51:02,799
Speaker 1: closer to minus one twenty, which is where I think

1032
00:51:02,840 --> 00:51:05,719
Speaker 1: this line should be priced if we believe Newcastle is

1033
00:51:05,719 --> 00:51:07,719
Speaker 1: an even team with Chelsea, which I believe they are,

1034
00:51:07,960 --> 00:51:10,640
Speaker 1: So I like Newcastle plus one ten Sam.

1035
00:51:10,840 --> 00:51:13,680
Speaker 3: Have we convinced you calling you over the line here? Yeah?

1036
00:51:13,760 --> 00:51:15,480
Speaker 2: Maybe a little bit. You kind of summed it up

1037
00:51:15,520 --> 00:51:17,960
Speaker 2: for me when you said that this is real trappy

1038
00:51:18,040 --> 00:51:19,839
Speaker 2: and I only think that because, like from the eye

1039
00:51:19,920 --> 00:51:22,920
Speaker 2: test anyway, I think Newcastle have been second best in

1040
00:51:23,920 --> 00:51:26,480
Speaker 2: maybe all of their games. Maybe that's harsh, maybe two

1041
00:51:26,520 --> 00:51:29,680
Speaker 2: out of three sat on two wins, so yeah, fair enough.

1042
00:51:29,880 --> 00:51:33,640
Speaker 2: Southampton somehow They've got a win with ten men on

1043
00:51:33,760 --> 00:51:37,560
Speaker 2: the opening day Spurs it was a really good win,

1044
00:51:38,760 --> 00:51:40,640
Speaker 2: not sure how much they deserved it, and a drawing

1045
00:51:40,680 --> 00:51:44,800
Speaker 2: Bournemouth where Watara scored with his shoulder in the last minute,

1046
00:51:45,320 --> 00:51:48,160
Speaker 2: so maybe they didn't quite deserve that. I'm just not

1047
00:51:48,280 --> 00:51:50,839
Speaker 2: sure about what I'm seeing, but yeah, like I said,

1048
00:51:50,880 --> 00:51:53,319
Speaker 2: fair play, two wins on the board, decent start. They

1049
00:51:53,400 --> 00:51:55,640
Speaker 2: may well run out comfortable winners here, but I'm just

1050
00:51:55,719 --> 00:51:58,239
Speaker 2: not sold on them right now, so that, yeah, our

1051
00:51:58,280 --> 00:51:58,960
Speaker 2: pasted on this one.

1052
00:51:59,160 --> 00:52:02,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, think of like injuries and suspensions. It's just been

1053
00:52:02,719 --> 00:52:04,680
Speaker 3: a weird start for them. So I'm hoping that.

1054
00:52:05,880 --> 00:52:08,239
Speaker 1: Char will be back here. So there's no makeshift back

1055
00:52:08,320 --> 00:52:10,200
Speaker 1: line here. You get Burn and shar as your center

1056
00:52:10,280 --> 00:52:13,040
Speaker 1: back pairing. Other than that, Newcastle's pretty pretty healthy.

1057
00:52:13,239 --> 00:52:16,840
Speaker 3: So yeah, I think I'm excited to see what they

1058
00:52:16,880 --> 00:52:18,600
Speaker 3: look like now that they're settled. All right, let's go

1059
00:52:18,680 --> 00:52:21,399
Speaker 3: through Europe real quick. BJ what do you got, Yeah,

1060
00:52:21,480 --> 00:52:21,719
Speaker 3: let's go.

1061
00:52:21,800 --> 00:52:26,799
Speaker 1: Bundesliga Bayern Munich minus two against Holstein Kiel. Holstein Kiel

1062
00:52:26,880 --> 00:52:30,600
Speaker 1: looks to be bad for lack of a better term,

1063
00:52:31,239 --> 00:52:33,520
Speaker 1: three and a half expected goles conceded to Hoffenheim an

1064
00:52:33,520 --> 00:52:36,439
Speaker 1: opening weekend. Had a better performance against Wolfsberg and match

1065
00:52:36,440 --> 00:52:40,320
Speaker 1: week two, but this team was terrible in the second Division.

1066
00:52:40,400 --> 00:52:42,440
Speaker 1: Last season. They had a plus point one point eight

1067
00:52:42,640 --> 00:52:45,880
Speaker 1: expected gol differential per ninety minutes. For those who know

1068
00:52:45,960 --> 00:52:49,280
Speaker 1: the barrier to entry in Germany since about twenty fifteen,

1069
00:52:49,719 --> 00:52:52,080
Speaker 1: you see your expected gold differential drop by about a

1070
00:52:52,160 --> 00:52:57,120
Speaker 1: full goal. So Bayern last season was plus one and

1071
00:52:57,120 --> 00:53:00,759
Speaker 1: a half extra differential per ninety in the Bundesliga. They've

1072
00:53:00,800 --> 00:53:02,919
Speaker 1: only gotten better in terms of the additions they've gotten

1073
00:53:02,960 --> 00:53:08,040
Speaker 1: this summer, assigning Paulina and Alise. So from a mathematical standpoint,

1074
00:53:08,080 --> 00:53:09,480
Speaker 1: if you go through to all the math and give

1075
00:53:09,640 --> 00:53:12,600
Speaker 1: holstein Kiel home field advantage, you get to a line

1076
00:53:12,600 --> 00:53:14,200
Speaker 1: about minus too. But then you have factor in the

1077
00:53:14,280 --> 00:53:16,279
Speaker 1: fact that Byron is so much more talented than them,

1078
00:53:16,360 --> 00:53:19,279
Speaker 1: So getting Byron minus two at even money it's not

1079
00:53:19,400 --> 00:53:22,400
Speaker 1: really a look aad spot. They got Dino Zagreb a

1080
00:53:22,480 --> 00:53:24,200
Speaker 1: home in the Champions League, so it's not really like

1081
00:53:24,320 --> 00:53:27,600
Speaker 1: a you know, rest guys for that match. So I

1082
00:53:27,719 --> 00:53:30,399
Speaker 1: like Byron minus two, siri. I like to Reno minus

1083
00:53:30,440 --> 00:53:32,600
Speaker 1: one twenty at home against Leche. Kind of a short

1084
00:53:32,680 --> 00:53:36,120
Speaker 1: price here. Torino was really good last season. They just

1085
00:53:36,239 --> 00:53:38,560
Speaker 1: got done in by penalties, like they actually hadn't even

1086
00:53:38,600 --> 00:53:41,880
Speaker 1: expect a goal differential, but they conceded seven penalties and

1087
00:53:42,000 --> 00:53:44,000
Speaker 1: only got two for themselves, so they actually had a

1088
00:53:44,040 --> 00:53:47,359
Speaker 1: plus eight non penalty expected goal differential. Leche was one

1089
00:53:47,360 --> 00:53:49,839
Speaker 1: of the worst defensive teams. They're gonna be without one

1090
00:53:49,840 --> 00:53:51,279
Speaker 1: of their best wingers, who got a red card in

1091
00:53:51,320 --> 00:53:54,600
Speaker 1: the last match against Cagliari. So I think minus one

1092
00:53:54,640 --> 00:53:57,880
Speaker 1: twenty is short on Torino uh and then La Liga

1093
00:53:58,040 --> 00:54:02,839
Speaker 1: we go to the islands. Mayorca. John o'betts minus won

1094
00:54:02,960 --> 00:54:09,879
Speaker 1: twenty five against vi Real. Virial is getting I think

1095
00:54:10,000 --> 00:54:14,200
Speaker 1: fastly overvalued in the market considering what they were last season.

1096
00:54:14,239 --> 00:54:16,800
Speaker 1: They were one of the worst defensive teams in Spain

1097
00:54:16,960 --> 00:54:20,720
Speaker 1: and soorloth who scored twenty three goals, overformed his expected

1098
00:54:20,760 --> 00:54:22,880
Speaker 1: goals by ten goals, and now they don't really have

1099
00:54:22,920 --> 00:54:25,880
Speaker 1: a striker to replace him. Papa Gay is also suspended

1100
00:54:25,920 --> 00:54:28,000
Speaker 1: for this match, who picked up a red card against Valencia,

1101
00:54:28,040 --> 00:54:30,400
Speaker 1: so they're about out one of their best midfielders. And

1102
00:54:30,520 --> 00:54:33,600
Speaker 1: Majorca is always good on the island. I mean they

1103
00:54:33,800 --> 00:54:37,120
Speaker 1: just they actually outplayed Real Madrid for large stretches to

1104
00:54:37,160 --> 00:54:39,480
Speaker 1: open up the weekend. They've always had a positive expected

1105
00:54:39,480 --> 00:54:41,760
Speaker 1: goal toffront all home dating back to when they actually

1106
00:54:41,760 --> 00:54:44,680
Speaker 1: got promoted in La Liga. So good spot here for

1107
00:54:44,800 --> 00:54:46,879
Speaker 1: Mayorc on the island like them. John o beatt minus

1108
00:54:46,920 --> 00:54:47,480
Speaker 1: on twenty five.

1109
00:54:47,920 --> 00:54:50,839
Speaker 3: Weird stuff happens on the island. It does at all

1110
00:54:50,880 --> 00:54:55,200
Speaker 3: the islands, whether it's Hawaii, Long Island. Where go All right,

1111
00:54:55,280 --> 00:54:58,360
Speaker 3: let's move to the championship. Then Sam what do you

1112
00:54:58,480 --> 00:55:01,719
Speaker 3: got and you're not doing? Are going against Swimouth again two.

1113
00:55:01,680 --> 00:55:04,399
Speaker 2: Weeks on the bounce. Yeah, going against my hometown club,

1114
00:55:04,440 --> 00:55:08,400
Speaker 2: which is actually pretty depressing, but it felt like therapy

1115
00:55:08,520 --> 00:55:10,040
Speaker 2: last week and I kind of liked it. So on

1116
00:55:10,200 --> 00:55:14,279
Speaker 2: back for round two. Our goal were humbled four nil

1117
00:55:14,520 --> 00:55:17,760
Speaker 2: away to Sheffle Wednesday to open the season. That Wednesday

1118
00:55:17,800 --> 00:55:19,800
Speaker 2: team have gone on to lose their next three games

1119
00:55:19,920 --> 00:55:23,640
Speaker 2: four nil against Sunderland, two nil and three nil. They

1120
00:55:23,680 --> 00:55:26,680
Speaker 2: haven't scored a goal, so that result was really bad

1121
00:55:26,920 --> 00:55:29,759
Speaker 2: and we've managed two points since one was against a

1122
00:55:29,800 --> 00:55:33,080
Speaker 2: depleted whole side desperate for reinforcements and the other we

1123
00:55:33,200 --> 00:55:35,440
Speaker 2: had ten men and QPR should it dealt with us

1124
00:55:35,520 --> 00:55:39,040
Speaker 2: without a question. They had their fair share of chances.

1125
00:55:39,120 --> 00:55:42,520
Speaker 2: So on Saturday we play Sunderland. Sunderland travels the home

1126
00:55:42,560 --> 00:55:44,680
Speaker 2: park down in Devon and there should be a golfing

1127
00:55:44,760 --> 00:55:49,120
Speaker 2: class form and performance. Our goal are reliant on creating

1128
00:55:49,160 --> 00:55:52,359
Speaker 2: opportunities through Morgan Whitaker on the right, Ibrahim S's soilk

1129
00:55:52,440 --> 00:55:55,120
Speaker 2: on the left and there's nothing going through the middle

1130
00:55:55,280 --> 00:55:58,200
Speaker 2: at all to link the final third to those in

1131
00:55:58,320 --> 00:56:00,759
Speaker 2: behind the front men, so there is a creative void

1132
00:56:00,880 --> 00:56:03,560
Speaker 2: at the minute. Rami al Haj was brought on deadline

1133
00:56:03,640 --> 00:56:05,960
Speaker 2: day with that in mind, so we'll see if he

1134
00:56:06,040 --> 00:56:08,200
Speaker 2: starts here and we'll see just what level he's at.

1135
00:56:08,280 --> 00:56:11,440
Speaker 2: And our good recorded one point eight three XG and

1136
00:56:11,480 --> 00:56:14,200
Speaker 2: they're opening four games that's the worst and forward areas

1137
00:56:14,280 --> 00:56:16,880
Speaker 2: in the league out of twenty four teams, they've conceded

1138
00:56:17,000 --> 00:56:20,000
Speaker 2: nine point four nine XGA, which is also the worst

1139
00:56:20,080 --> 00:56:22,600
Speaker 2: in the division. And if you look at Sunderland, the

1140
00:56:22,760 --> 00:56:24,879
Speaker 2: top of the league after four games, which must feel

1141
00:56:24,920 --> 00:56:28,439
Speaker 2: lovely one hundred percent record, conceded just one goal. They've

1142
00:56:28,520 --> 00:56:31,920
Speaker 2: registered six point one eight expected goes and have scored

1143
00:56:31,960 --> 00:56:34,280
Speaker 2: the most goals in the league along the way, becoming

1144
00:56:34,320 --> 00:56:36,680
Speaker 2: the first team to reach double figures with ten. So

1145
00:56:37,080 --> 00:56:40,040
Speaker 2: all in all, at backable price, the minus one twenty

1146
00:56:40,080 --> 00:56:42,239
Speaker 2: on Sunland to have just a little bit more than

1147
00:56:42,280 --> 00:56:45,439
Speaker 2: our goal in forward areas especially, I think it looks

1148
00:56:45,480 --> 00:56:47,840
Speaker 2: a good way into this if you're a neutral.

1149
00:56:48,880 --> 00:56:50,799
Speaker 1: Does Wayne already make it to Christmas? Sam?

1150
00:56:52,680 --> 00:56:55,440
Speaker 2: I don't know. I'm not sure to be fair like

1151
00:56:55,600 --> 00:56:58,719
Speaker 2: the last like, there are signs that it's not all bad,

1152
00:56:58,800 --> 00:57:01,759
Speaker 2: and the squad is evolved and the performances that come

1153
00:57:01,840 --> 00:57:05,440
Speaker 2: in so very early days. To answer your question, I'm

1154
00:57:05,440 --> 00:57:05,759
Speaker 2: not sure.

1155
00:57:06,239 --> 00:57:11,320
Speaker 1: Okay for me, I like our old buddies Lutontown Jona

1156
00:57:11,360 --> 00:57:14,799
Speaker 1: Bett at Millwall this weekend. You know, Lutontown has been

1157
00:57:14,880 --> 00:57:17,720
Speaker 1: very unfortunate to be twenty third in the Championship table

1158
00:57:17,800 --> 00:57:20,720
Speaker 1: right now plus two expect a goal Toffrontial through four matches,

1159
00:57:20,840 --> 00:57:23,320
Speaker 1: but they have not won a match. And if you

1160
00:57:23,360 --> 00:57:26,760
Speaker 1: go look and look through Luton's team, it's essentially the

1161
00:57:26,960 --> 00:57:30,400
Speaker 1: same team that was in the in the Premier League

1162
00:57:30,440 --> 00:57:34,959
Speaker 1: last season, minus Ross Barkley and one other player bonna

1163
00:57:35,040 --> 00:57:38,080
Speaker 1: excuse me. So it's pretty much the same Lutontown squad

1164
00:57:38,240 --> 00:57:41,400
Speaker 1: that you know, we know for a fact can generate

1165
00:57:41,560 --> 00:57:46,520
Speaker 1: some chances in transition here. And Millwall has improved under

1166
00:57:46,600 --> 00:57:49,080
Speaker 1: Neil Harris. They had a good stretch run towards the

1167
00:57:49,160 --> 00:57:51,439
Speaker 1: end of last season, but they did overperform in terms

1168
00:57:51,440 --> 00:57:53,320
Speaker 1: of expected goals. They've had a good start to the

1169
00:57:53,400 --> 00:57:57,280
Speaker 1: beginning of the season here, but I think with how

1170
00:57:57,360 --> 00:57:59,640
Speaker 1: much Loutontown has underperformed, I think their squad is more

1171
00:57:59,680 --> 00:58:04,000
Speaker 1: talent in the mill Walls. So I think drawn o'batt

1172
00:58:04,120 --> 00:58:06,480
Speaker 1: at even money is a decent price on Lootontown.

1173
00:58:07,040 --> 00:58:12,680
Speaker 3: Okay, let's transition to the three leg underdog parlay two

1174
00:58:12,760 --> 00:58:17,440
Speaker 3: weeks ago. Three legs, three draws for us, so I

1175
00:58:17,480 --> 00:58:20,360
Speaker 3: think all three were one, one two, So knocking on

1176
00:58:20,440 --> 00:58:22,240
Speaker 3: the door, knocking on the door, this one comes out

1177
00:58:22,240 --> 00:58:25,000
Speaker 3: at sixty one to one. BJA, you can get us started.

1178
00:58:25,600 --> 00:58:29,880
Speaker 1: Bournemouth plus two sixty at home against Chelsea. I think

1179
00:58:29,920 --> 00:58:32,680
Speaker 1: this is a really good spot for Bournemouth to unleash

1180
00:58:32,760 --> 00:58:35,600
Speaker 1: their high press that had had them so successful last season.

1181
00:58:35,840 --> 00:58:37,840
Speaker 1: They've played three of the most direct teams in the

1182
00:58:37,880 --> 00:58:41,280
Speaker 1: Premier League so far in Nottingham, Forest, Everton and Newcastle.

1183
00:58:41,440 --> 00:58:43,000
Speaker 1: Chelsea's going to try to build out of the back

1184
00:58:43,080 --> 00:58:45,160
Speaker 1: with a lot of short passes, and this is Maresca's

1185
00:58:45,520 --> 00:58:48,960
Speaker 1: first big test against a really, really good high pressing team.

1186
00:58:49,120 --> 00:58:51,880
Speaker 1: So it's you know, Bournemouth was really good towards the

1187
00:58:51,960 --> 00:58:54,240
Speaker 1: end of last season. Their last thirteen matches at home,

1188
00:58:54,280 --> 00:58:55,919
Speaker 1: they've only lost three of them. They have a plus

1189
00:58:56,040 --> 00:58:59,520
Speaker 1: nine expected goal differential, So good spot here for Bournemouth

1190
00:58:59,560 --> 00:59:01,520
Speaker 1: at home and I like them and plus two sixty.

1191
00:59:01,680 --> 00:59:04,280
Speaker 3: All right, I'll crash us with Everton there plus five

1192
00:59:04,440 --> 00:59:09,320
Speaker 3: fifty against Eston Villa it was a nightmare against worn

1193
00:59:09,400 --> 00:59:12,160
Speaker 3: withth well, but before it was a nightmare, it was

1194
00:59:12,200 --> 00:59:14,560
Speaker 3: all looking pretty good against a decent Bournemous side. So

1195
00:59:14,600 --> 00:59:16,560
Speaker 3: if you just retend there's less six minutes and a

1196
00:59:16,600 --> 00:59:18,960
Speaker 3: half and you'd be pretty encouraged with Everton here and

1197
00:59:19,000 --> 00:59:21,360
Speaker 3: we wouldn't be getting this price. So, as BJ noted before,

1198
00:59:21,360 --> 00:59:23,600
Speaker 3: I don't think that the gap is this wide between

1199
00:59:23,640 --> 00:59:28,480
Speaker 3: these clubs. I think that Everyden should be better than

1200
00:59:28,520 --> 00:59:31,080
Speaker 3: their record and it's been a lot of just shooting

1201
00:59:31,120 --> 00:59:32,880
Speaker 3: itself in the foot, so hopefully they can clean some

1202
00:59:32,960 --> 00:59:35,400
Speaker 3: of that up and get us a big price for

1203
00:59:35,520 --> 00:59:35,880
Speaker 3: him here.

1204
00:59:35,840 --> 00:59:38,600
Speaker 2: Sam Tottenham plus two hundred to be able to get

1205
00:59:38,640 --> 00:59:43,160
Speaker 2: this Tottenham side on board at home in the underdog

1206
00:59:43,240 --> 00:59:46,040
Speaker 2: category is something on very much on board with a

1207
00:59:46,120 --> 00:59:48,480
Speaker 2: lot needs to swing their way to take all three points,

1208
00:59:48,520 --> 00:59:51,360
Speaker 2: of course, most notably the lad's coming in to replace

1209
00:59:51,560 --> 00:59:53,800
Speaker 2: dect and Rice and Martin Oda God need to ensure

1210
00:59:53,840 --> 00:59:57,280
Speaker 2: that that transition is seamless. Two main stays in the

1211
00:59:57,440 --> 01:00:01,480
Speaker 2: Arsenal team and very impressive Arsin, but the magnitude of

1212
01:00:01,520 --> 01:00:04,760
Speaker 2: the North London derby a weakened the wayside. That might

1213
01:00:04,920 --> 01:00:07,560
Speaker 2: just be the required recipe for Arsenal to fault on

1214
01:00:07,600 --> 01:00:10,840
Speaker 2: the road. Arteta's man are and beaten in ten away games,

1215
01:00:10,920 --> 01:00:13,000
Speaker 2: winning nine, so this will be tough for the hosts

1216
01:00:13,280 --> 01:00:15,800
Speaker 2: but certainly not impossible. And as you might be able

1217
01:00:15,840 --> 01:00:18,360
Speaker 2: to tell, I'm not overly solled myself because it was

1218
01:00:18,440 --> 01:00:20,480
Speaker 2: slim Pickens this week, so I apologize.

1219
01:00:21,000 --> 01:00:23,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, it was slim Pickens and I said sixty one

1220
01:00:23,560 --> 01:00:25,440
Speaker 3: to one. It actually comes out at sixty nine to one.

1221
01:00:27,280 --> 01:00:28,480
Speaker 3: Three leg on record.

1222
01:00:28,520 --> 01:00:32,880
Speaker 1: I hope this loses, all right.

1223
01:00:32,960 --> 01:00:35,400
Speaker 3: Let's move on to best bets for match week four

1224
01:00:35,840 --> 01:00:39,040
Speaker 3: the Premier League season, Sam, you can kick us off here.

1225
01:00:39,960 --> 01:00:42,440
Speaker 2: Yes, gone for Palace and under four point five goals

1226
01:00:43,440 --> 01:00:46,120
Speaker 2: on anti Leicester at present, and I think Crystal Palace

1227
01:00:46,160 --> 01:00:47,840
Speaker 2: at home should be a tough nut to crack for

1228
01:00:47,880 --> 01:00:50,320
Speaker 2: the visitors here. The draw at Chelsea will give this

1229
01:00:50,440 --> 01:00:52,360
Speaker 2: place squad a bit of belief that they can kick

1230
01:00:52,400 --> 01:00:55,320
Speaker 2: start their season on the weekend. The bookmakers certainly think

1231
01:00:55,360 --> 01:00:57,880
Speaker 2: they will priced at minus one sixty seven for a

1232
01:00:57,960 --> 01:01:00,280
Speaker 2: home win, and we can drag that price all the

1233
01:01:00,280 --> 01:01:02,600
Speaker 2: way up to minus one's hand with the inclusion of

1234
01:01:02,640 --> 01:01:04,600
Speaker 2: on the four point five goals, which I really like.

1235
01:01:05,160 --> 01:01:07,080
Speaker 2: And what was a high scoring campaign in the Premier

1236
01:01:07,160 --> 01:01:10,200
Speaker 2: League last season, the weekend after the first international break

1237
01:01:10,280 --> 01:01:12,640
Speaker 2: of the season only five games went over two point

1238
01:01:12,720 --> 01:01:15,360
Speaker 2: five goals and not one game went over four point

1239
01:01:15,440 --> 01:01:17,400
Speaker 2: five goals, and I would expect similar this time.

1240
01:01:17,480 --> 01:01:20,240
Speaker 3: Run. Okay, I'm going to go Newcastle. I think that

1241
01:01:20,360 --> 01:01:22,240
Speaker 3: this team is about to start trending in the right

1242
01:01:22,320 --> 01:01:25,280
Speaker 3: direction now that they're settled getting healthy. It's weird start

1243
01:01:25,320 --> 01:01:26,960
Speaker 3: to the season, but they were able to put six

1244
01:01:27,040 --> 01:01:30,080
Speaker 3: points on the board despite some stuff going against them.

1245
01:01:30,080 --> 01:01:32,200
Speaker 3: Where two wins on the boards despite stuff going against them.

1246
01:01:32,520 --> 01:01:34,720
Speaker 3: I think they overmatch Wolves here, even on the road,

1247
01:01:34,760 --> 01:01:37,200
Speaker 3: So getting anything better then even money on Newcastle is

1248
01:01:37,240 --> 01:01:39,600
Speaker 3: my favorite bet for this to match week. DJ.

1249
01:01:40,440 --> 01:01:42,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna go with Liverpool Nottingham forced under three

1250
01:01:42,840 --> 01:01:45,240
Speaker 1: and a half goals at minus one twenty five. You know,

1251
01:01:45,320 --> 01:01:47,680
Speaker 1: Liverpool looks a lot different under Arnie Slot than they

1252
01:01:47,680 --> 01:01:50,760
Speaker 1: did Jurgen Klopp. They're valuing more control rather than just

1253
01:01:50,840 --> 01:01:55,160
Speaker 1: reckless abandonment and trying to play direct. They're really defensively

1254
01:01:55,920 --> 01:01:58,400
Speaker 1: making sure that they don't get beat. In transition, you're

1255
01:01:58,480 --> 01:02:01,520
Speaker 1: constantly having five guys back as Underclop both of the

1256
01:02:01,560 --> 01:02:03,880
Speaker 1: midfielders were always trying to counterpress to win the ball

1257
01:02:03,960 --> 01:02:06,680
Speaker 1: to create those easy transition opportunities. Now, if you look

1258
01:02:06,720 --> 01:02:08,520
Speaker 1: at the match then they played against Brentford, which is

1259
01:02:08,600 --> 01:02:10,880
Speaker 1: a pretty good carbon copy of what this match is

1260
01:02:10,880 --> 01:02:13,760
Speaker 1: going to look like. They never let Brentford have numerical

1261
01:02:13,800 --> 01:02:16,080
Speaker 1: advantages when they got their transition breaks, and that's what

1262
01:02:16,160 --> 01:02:18,720
Speaker 1: new Nottingn Force is going to do. They're gonna sit

1263
01:02:18,760 --> 01:02:20,680
Speaker 1: deep and they're going to try to break and counter

1264
01:02:20,800 --> 01:02:23,520
Speaker 1: from that deep low block. But Nottingham Forest is a

1265
01:02:23,600 --> 01:02:26,720
Speaker 1: very capable defensive team. So far, they're allowing the lowest

1266
01:02:26,800 --> 01:02:29,120
Speaker 1: x sheeper shot in the Premier League. Last season they

1267
01:02:29,160 --> 01:02:31,360
Speaker 1: were second best in terms of final third to box

1268
01:02:31,480 --> 01:02:33,800
Speaker 1: entry conversion rate allowed. So I think they'll do a

1269
01:02:33,960 --> 01:02:36,080
Speaker 1: very difficult they make it. They'll make it very difficult

1270
01:02:36,120 --> 01:02:38,520
Speaker 1: on Liverpool to actually get in and create those high

1271
01:02:38,560 --> 01:02:41,280
Speaker 1: quality chances. But you know, after an international break with

1272
01:02:41,320 --> 01:02:43,120
Speaker 1: a lot of tired legs, guys traveling in from all

1273
01:02:43,160 --> 01:02:45,720
Speaker 1: over the world, I think three and a half is

1274
01:02:45,880 --> 01:02:47,560
Speaker 1: a little too high here, So I like under three

1275
01:02:47,560 --> 01:02:49,440
Speaker 1: and a half minus one to twenty perfect.

1276
01:02:49,480 --> 01:02:52,240
Speaker 3: All Right, that does it for us this match Week

1277
01:02:52,400 --> 01:02:56,720
Speaker 3: four podcasts. We'll be back on Monday morning to look

1278
01:02:56,720 --> 01:02:59,560
Speaker 3: ahead to the Champions League, and then again on Thursday

1279
01:02:59,600 --> 01:03:01,840
Speaker 3: morning to look ahead to Match Week five. Fun until then,

1280
01:03:01,880 --> 01:03:04,640
Speaker 3: best all your bets. Hopefully next time we talk to you,

1281
01:03:04,720 --> 01:03:06,320
Speaker 3: we're just all sitting with a little bit more cash

1282
01:03:06,360 --> 01:03:17,080
Speaker 3: in our pockets thanks to that three leg Parlak. Action

1283
01:03:17,280 --> 01:03:20,240
Speaker 3: Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1284
01:03:20,680 --> 01:03:23,480
Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

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01:03:23,800 --> 01:03:26,400
Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

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01:03:26,520 --> 01:03:27,240
Speaker 2: hundred Gambler