1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast 5 00:00:15,560 --> 00:00:18,479 Speaker 1: called Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:21,759 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Now, I want to 7 00:00:21,760 --> 00:00:24,480 Speaker 1: bring in Mike Jackson is the CEO of Auto Nation 8 00:00:24,840 --> 00:00:28,240 Speaker 1: and one of the most respected figures in the industry, 9 00:00:28,560 --> 00:00:32,760 Speaker 1: UM dealing a lot of cars even before the pandemic. 10 00:00:33,280 --> 00:00:36,200 Speaker 1: Mike tell us about the your experience during the pandemic 11 00:00:36,240 --> 00:00:38,680 Speaker 1: and what it's like now as we as we poke 12 00:00:38,760 --> 00:00:43,839 Speaker 1: our heads out well, I think um the pandemic was 13 00:00:43,880 --> 00:00:52,239 Speaker 1: a scarring events for Americans, just horrific, unimaginable, But from 14 00:00:52,240 --> 00:00:54,720 Speaker 1: a business point of view, it had two significant impacts. 15 00:00:54,720 --> 00:00:56,720 Speaker 1: One know in the housing industry. In the second or 16 00:00:56,760 --> 00:01:00,720 Speaker 1: automotive housing, they want more space eight and they want 17 00:01:00,760 --> 00:01:03,120 Speaker 1: the space to be nicer. And then when they leave 18 00:01:03,160 --> 00:01:05,440 Speaker 1: their house, they want to control the environments that they're in. 19 00:01:05,520 --> 00:01:08,160 Speaker 1: They want their personal vehicle and they want to control 20 00:01:08,200 --> 00:01:12,520 Speaker 1: who's in it, when, where it goes. So this independence 21 00:01:12,680 --> 00:01:18,039 Speaker 1: of American spirit was built out by this pandemic. So 22 00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:26,320 Speaker 1: that is dramatically increased demand for individual automobiles and that 23 00:01:26,400 --> 00:01:31,560 Speaker 1: led to a fourth record quarter for automation with an 24 00:01:31,560 --> 00:01:38,600 Speaker 1: increase in our revenue year over year, increase UH in 25 00:01:38,720 --> 00:01:42,160 Speaker 1: gross profit. We had cost measures that we also put 26 00:01:42,160 --> 00:01:46,200 Speaker 1: in place. Hence our earnings per share tripled compared to 27 00:01:46,240 --> 00:01:50,320 Speaker 1: a year ago. So the environment is good, no question though. 28 00:01:50,360 --> 00:01:54,200 Speaker 1: Interest rates is very supportive of housing an automotive. But 29 00:01:54,280 --> 00:01:59,840 Speaker 1: within that automotive UH segment, Auto Nation with its brand, 30 00:02:00,440 --> 00:02:03,080 Speaker 1: it's great experience with one price on pre owned, a 31 00:02:03,160 --> 00:02:09,359 Speaker 1: digital platform. Coast to coast, UH performed extraordinarily. Well, hey, Mike, 32 00:02:09,400 --> 00:02:12,000 Speaker 1: talk to us about the chip shortage. We we've been 33 00:02:12,040 --> 00:02:14,120 Speaker 1: hearing so much about this, and you've been in the 34 00:02:14,120 --> 00:02:17,880 Speaker 1: news making some, um, you know, some clear statements about that. 35 00:02:18,000 --> 00:02:19,920 Speaker 1: Give us a sense of what that really means for 36 00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:22,720 Speaker 1: your business and how long the chip shortage you think 37 00:02:22,800 --> 00:02:26,360 Speaker 1: is going to affect the auto industry in this country. Well, 38 00:02:26,400 --> 00:02:31,000 Speaker 1: we'll have more demand than supply across the board since 39 00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:36,360 Speaker 1: April May of a year ago, when you hit this 40 00:02:36,440 --> 00:02:39,520 Speaker 1: inflection point where American sumer woke up and said listen, 41 00:02:39,520 --> 00:02:43,880 Speaker 1: I want, I want. Personal transportation inventories were, of course 42 00:02:44,320 --> 00:02:47,000 Speaker 1: for new very low then because the plants were closed 43 00:02:47,040 --> 00:02:51,120 Speaker 1: for eight weeks, ten weeks, twelve weeks depending on the manufacturer. 44 00:02:52,120 --> 00:02:56,200 Speaker 1: UH and you had this extraordinarily high demand. Now the 45 00:02:56,400 --> 00:03:01,320 Speaker 1: chip shortage means they can't meet the demand and UM 46 00:03:01,560 --> 00:03:06,280 Speaker 1: shipments are still pretty good, but um and it's much 47 00:03:06,320 --> 00:03:08,640 Speaker 1: better than a year ago. There's no comparison to the 48 00:03:08,639 --> 00:03:13,600 Speaker 1: shuftdown period. This chip shortage is more a disruption of 49 00:03:13,639 --> 00:03:18,640 Speaker 1: a very complex global manufacturing system. So the headline remains 50 00:03:18,639 --> 00:03:20,560 Speaker 1: we have more demand and supply. The way we are 51 00:03:20,639 --> 00:03:25,720 Speaker 1: managing it as a company is that we've adjusted margins 52 00:03:25,720 --> 00:03:30,920 Speaker 1: on the new vehicle side and we're selling incoming vehicles, 53 00:03:31,000 --> 00:03:35,160 Speaker 1: preselling incoming vehicles that at a much higher rate than normal, 54 00:03:35,240 --> 00:03:37,960 Speaker 1: so everything comes in and goes out. And on the 55 00:03:38,040 --> 00:03:42,920 Speaker 1: volume side, we've aggressively purchased pre owned. We put very 56 00:03:42,920 --> 00:03:45,080 Speaker 1: good values on the trade ins for our customers, so 57 00:03:45,080 --> 00:03:47,560 Speaker 1: that's a win for them and hence we're able to 58 00:03:47,680 --> 00:03:52,320 Speaker 1: increase our pre owned business by year over year. I 59 00:03:52,320 --> 00:03:54,960 Speaker 1: talked to all of Colonnas, the CEO of Daimler, a 60 00:03:55,000 --> 00:03:57,040 Speaker 1: couple of days ago and he told me, in terms 61 00:03:57,080 --> 00:03:59,520 Speaker 1: of the chip shortage for them, they're prioritizing the higher 62 00:03:59,520 --> 00:04:03,200 Speaker 1: margin vehicles. So the new e q S, for example, 63 00:04:03,240 --> 00:04:05,480 Speaker 1: they're gonna prioritize that in the S class. Of course, 64 00:04:05,480 --> 00:04:09,280 Speaker 1: I see that you had last year bigger growth in 65 00:04:09,320 --> 00:04:13,360 Speaker 1: your premium luxury segment that you did in domestics and imports. 66 00:04:13,560 --> 00:04:19,919 Speaker 1: Is that part of that equation. Premium luxury is in 67 00:04:19,960 --> 00:04:23,200 Speaker 1: the high thirties as a percent of our business. Uh. 68 00:04:23,200 --> 00:04:26,880 Speaker 1: And with the largest retailer of Mercedes in the US 69 00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:29,280 Speaker 1: was a good friend of mine, know him a long time. 70 00:04:29,279 --> 00:04:33,560 Speaker 1: He's an outstanding CEO. All is not the only one 71 00:04:34,240 --> 00:04:37,240 Speaker 1: who's come to that conclusion. And we clearly say, and 72 00:04:37,279 --> 00:04:40,640 Speaker 1: here's an epiphany that the manufacturers saying, let's put the 73 00:04:40,720 --> 00:04:44,560 Speaker 1: chips in the highest demand vehicles, which by the way, 74 00:04:44,680 --> 00:04:50,400 Speaker 1: are also the highest margin vehicles for them. I think that, Uh, 75 00:04:50,640 --> 00:04:56,240 Speaker 1: the industry didn't always do that in s decades. And 76 00:04:56,640 --> 00:05:00,359 Speaker 1: the consumer, just like in the home, is looking for 77 00:05:00,400 --> 00:05:04,280 Speaker 1: a bigger vehicle with more content and hence more chips 78 00:05:04,720 --> 00:05:09,159 Speaker 1: in that particular vehicle, and the manufacturers are prioritizing that. 79 00:05:10,040 --> 00:05:15,440 Speaker 1: And let's not produce vehicles for which there's very little 80 00:05:15,520 --> 00:05:20,080 Speaker 1: interest toward demand. I mean, let's give the customer what 81 00:05:20,120 --> 00:05:23,520 Speaker 1: they want. Wow. Okay, that's a stroke of genius. I 82 00:05:23,640 --> 00:05:27,640 Speaker 1: like it, and it's been very um. I think it's 83 00:05:28,040 --> 00:05:33,840 Speaker 1: I think it may have changed the industry long term 84 00:05:33,880 --> 00:05:39,080 Speaker 1: that there is much rather than being so production driven 85 00:05:39,160 --> 00:05:43,919 Speaker 1: all the time and overproducing, let's really focus on what 86 00:05:44,040 --> 00:05:49,960 Speaker 1: consumers want and have a good balance between demand and supply. 87 00:05:50,839 --> 00:05:52,560 Speaker 1: I just want to ask you a quick question speaking 88 00:05:52,600 --> 00:05:54,960 Speaker 1: of industry changes. We only got thirty seconds here, but 89 00:05:55,040 --> 00:05:57,520 Speaker 1: I've heard that Amazon may come into the market. Do 90 00:05:57,600 --> 00:06:01,039 Speaker 1: you think that they're a potential threat. Amazon is a 91 00:06:01,080 --> 00:06:03,599 Speaker 1: great company, and they've been coming into automotive for I 92 00:06:03,640 --> 00:06:07,120 Speaker 1: think thirty years. I've been hearing that, so listen. It's 93 00:06:07,120 --> 00:06:11,400 Speaker 1: a big, complex business, and I like our position with 94 00:06:11,440 --> 00:06:15,760 Speaker 1: our brand, our experience in our digital platform. Well Auto 95 00:06:15,839 --> 00:06:18,239 Speaker 1: National do well. I have a lot of card dealer 96 00:06:18,279 --> 00:06:19,599 Speaker 1: friends and they wanted me to ask if you have 97 00:06:19,600 --> 00:06:21,840 Speaker 1: any stories for sale? Do you have anything out there 98 00:06:21,839 --> 00:06:23,960 Speaker 1: that you're willing to give up? But I'm guessing the 99 00:06:24,000 --> 00:06:27,599 Speaker 1: answer right now is no. I knew it would be 100 00:06:27,680 --> 00:06:31,120 Speaker 1: Mike Jackson, the CEO of Auto Nation. The stock has 101 00:06:31,279 --> 00:06:37,280 Speaker 1: soared Um, has been time today. Absolutely, this is Bloomberg. 102 00:06:41,000 --> 00:06:44,360 Speaker 1: We've got an old fashioned bidding war in the railroad business. 103 00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:48,520 Speaker 1: Canadian National launching a thirty billion dollar bid for Kansas 104 00:06:48,560 --> 00:06:52,679 Speaker 1: City Southern. That comes on top of Canadian Pacifics offer 105 00:06:52,720 --> 00:06:55,440 Speaker 1: from just last week of about twenty billion dollars. Let's 106 00:06:55,480 --> 00:06:57,480 Speaker 1: break it down. We do that with Tony Hatch. Tony 107 00:06:57,560 --> 00:06:59,960 Speaker 1: is a principal a b H Consulting. Tony is one 108 00:07:00,000 --> 00:07:03,599 Speaker 1: of the leading and longest serving rail analysts on the street. 109 00:07:03,640 --> 00:07:06,440 Speaker 1: He knows all of these companies intimately. Well, Tony, thanks 110 00:07:06,440 --> 00:07:09,760 Speaker 1: for joining us here again, the two Canadian rails looking 111 00:07:09,760 --> 00:07:15,120 Speaker 1: at Kansas City Southern. What's the rationale behind behind their interest? Well, Um, 112 00:07:15,160 --> 00:07:18,520 Speaker 1: the rationale really is that there's terrific growth potential. These 113 00:07:18,680 --> 00:07:21,680 Speaker 1: both of the offers were really contingent upon where the 114 00:07:21,720 --> 00:07:25,679 Speaker 1: success was contingent upon synergies, very different from most historic 115 00:07:25,760 --> 00:07:28,240 Speaker 1: mergers in the rail industry, which have been about removing 116 00:07:28,280 --> 00:07:31,240 Speaker 1: duplicate efforts or economies. So I think they both see 117 00:07:31,360 --> 00:07:34,480 Speaker 1: Mexico being a tremendous growth market. Whether or not we 118 00:07:34,520 --> 00:07:36,560 Speaker 1: get a big increase in near shoring and other things, 119 00:07:36,600 --> 00:07:39,440 Speaker 1: that's been the fastest growing market in North American freight 120 00:07:39,960 --> 00:07:41,760 Speaker 1: for some time and will continue to be. And I 121 00:07:41,800 --> 00:07:45,400 Speaker 1: think the both of the networks fit with the Kansa 122 00:07:45,400 --> 00:07:49,160 Speaker 1: City southern pretty well. Tony. How much green space is 123 00:07:49,200 --> 00:07:51,960 Speaker 1: in this industry? I mean, do you just if you 124 00:07:52,000 --> 00:07:55,320 Speaker 1: want more railroads, do you have to buy other railroads? 125 00:07:55,320 --> 00:07:59,160 Speaker 1: Are are they going to be building out more network? Well? Um, 126 00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:01,840 Speaker 1: basic this is sort of like the whole thing about 127 00:08:01,880 --> 00:08:03,760 Speaker 1: real estate. You know, they don't make any more of it. 128 00:08:04,400 --> 00:08:08,400 Speaker 1: Building a railroad is prohibitively expensive, Uh, fighting etter, you 129 00:08:08,400 --> 00:08:11,440 Speaker 1: have to buy them. If you want access, direct access, 130 00:08:11,800 --> 00:08:14,880 Speaker 1: owned access to markets, you need to purchase it or 131 00:08:14,920 --> 00:08:17,080 Speaker 1: cut some other kind of deal. You can't simply build 132 00:08:17,120 --> 00:08:20,360 Speaker 1: into it. Uh you know what, the cost would be astronomical? 133 00:08:21,080 --> 00:08:23,400 Speaker 1: All right, Tony, So behind this deal, I think, you know, 134 00:08:23,760 --> 00:08:25,840 Speaker 1: even someone like me who hasn't looked at, you know, 135 00:08:25,920 --> 00:08:28,000 Speaker 1: a rail stock in thirty years. I look at the 136 00:08:28,040 --> 00:08:31,720 Speaker 1: map here and I see, you know, the Canadian routes 137 00:08:31,840 --> 00:08:34,000 Speaker 1: and then I see them connecting down into Kansas City 138 00:08:34,040 --> 00:08:35,520 Speaker 1: and then going all the way to Mexico, and it 139 00:08:35,559 --> 00:08:38,360 Speaker 1: just seems like this is just a great play on 140 00:08:38,559 --> 00:08:42,520 Speaker 1: just North America and trade kicking back in and maybe 141 00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:45,680 Speaker 1: getting some better trade agreements. Um, is that kind of 142 00:08:45,720 --> 00:08:48,400 Speaker 1: what these guys are thinking. That's absolutely what they're thinking. 143 00:08:48,400 --> 00:08:49,559 Speaker 1: I mean this so you know, I hate to say 144 00:08:49,600 --> 00:08:51,400 Speaker 1: it's a NAFTA or U s m C A play 145 00:08:51,480 --> 00:08:54,000 Speaker 1: because un that's going on for a while, but this 146 00:08:54,080 --> 00:08:58,560 Speaker 1: truly links the continents, links all three players in the continent, uh, 147 00:08:58,559 --> 00:09:01,760 Speaker 1: in the three countries. In addition, it's a big North 148 00:09:01,880 --> 00:09:04,040 Speaker 1: South play. And what is you know, heretofore been really 149 00:09:04,080 --> 00:09:06,480 Speaker 1: an East west world. If you look at the big 150 00:09:06,520 --> 00:09:09,880 Speaker 1: four US railroads, they really work in an East West phenomenon. 151 00:09:09,960 --> 00:09:12,280 Speaker 1: So this is a way of attaining a different type 152 00:09:12,280 --> 00:09:14,520 Speaker 1: of growth than we had been seeing. I mean, Kensdy 153 00:09:14,520 --> 00:09:17,439 Speaker 1: Southern had been the fastest growing railroad for the last 154 00:09:17,640 --> 00:09:21,440 Speaker 1: many years. The Canadians have been one and two, uh 155 00:09:21,559 --> 00:09:23,559 Speaker 1: and three, all three of us. Are you really talking 156 00:09:23,559 --> 00:09:27,040 Speaker 1: about the railroads here involved in this little fractus are 157 00:09:27,080 --> 00:09:29,480 Speaker 1: all the ones the most focused at this point in growth? 158 00:09:29,720 --> 00:09:31,440 Speaker 1: And the market se as you talked about in the 159 00:09:31,440 --> 00:09:35,320 Speaker 1: trade situation, really is supportive of that. Even if it's great, 160 00:09:35,760 --> 00:09:39,200 Speaker 1: a great commercial play, there's a point when the price 161 00:09:39,360 --> 00:09:41,480 Speaker 1: could just be too high, right, I mean, we all 162 00:09:41,520 --> 00:09:44,440 Speaker 1: agree that getting the first n f T on people 163 00:09:44,600 --> 00:09:47,840 Speaker 1: art would be an incredible opportunity. But for sixty nine 164 00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:50,880 Speaker 1: million dollars, that's too much. So at what point does 165 00:09:51,280 --> 00:09:55,040 Speaker 1: UM does this asset get too expensive? You know, of 166 00:09:55,080 --> 00:09:57,719 Speaker 1: course everything and everything has a value. I don't think 167 00:09:57,720 --> 00:09:59,920 Speaker 1: there're anything near that. It doesn't mean that we'll see 168 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:03,320 Speaker 1: another bid. This wouldn't surprise me this morning. But you know, 169 00:10:03,360 --> 00:10:05,040 Speaker 1: I think the idea that they're saying that they could 170 00:10:05,040 --> 00:10:06,840 Speaker 1: be you know, that the synergies will be created pretty 171 00:10:06,920 --> 00:10:09,120 Speaker 1: quickly makes a lot of sense, and we'll get more 172 00:10:09,559 --> 00:10:13,520 Speaker 1: information as this process goes along. But we haven't reached 173 00:10:13,520 --> 00:10:16,400 Speaker 1: the point of saturation here. This will make money for 174 00:10:16,640 --> 00:10:19,000 Speaker 1: the buyer at both of those prices, even the higher 175 00:10:19,000 --> 00:10:21,559 Speaker 1: one UM and I think potentially it didn't even hire one. 176 00:10:21,600 --> 00:10:23,600 Speaker 1: But I don't see any but any of the other 177 00:10:23,679 --> 00:10:26,200 Speaker 1: carriers getting involved at this point. But I think that 178 00:10:26,280 --> 00:10:27,680 Speaker 1: you're right. You know, there is a point in which 179 00:10:27,679 --> 00:10:30,000 Speaker 1: you pay too much for the growth. We haven't hit 180 00:10:30,040 --> 00:10:34,520 Speaker 1: that level yet. Wait. I got a quick follow Okay, Uh, 181 00:10:34,600 --> 00:10:39,240 Speaker 1: what was Paul like as a young employee. It's very 182 00:10:39,240 --> 00:10:42,040 Speaker 1: good to hear his voice. He was kind of hate 183 00:10:42,040 --> 00:10:46,280 Speaker 1: to say this publicly. But he was pretty good. You know, 184 00:10:46,320 --> 00:10:50,320 Speaker 1: I wouldn't expect saying that, but but he was. And 185 00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:53,199 Speaker 1: he does know this stuff better that he's letting on here. Um, 186 00:10:53,600 --> 00:10:55,880 Speaker 1: this will be an interesting story that The question to 187 00:10:55,920 --> 00:10:58,200 Speaker 1: me is the regulatory aspect you haven't asked about him? 188 00:10:58,200 --> 00:11:00,680 Speaker 1: Happy to talk about it. I think it could hash mustard, 189 00:11:00,720 --> 00:11:02,600 Speaker 1: But it's getting a little more complicated than it was 190 00:11:02,960 --> 00:11:06,760 Speaker 1: just late last night when I went to bed. Fascinating. 191 00:11:06,760 --> 00:11:09,760 Speaker 1: So Tony, thanks for coming on. We really appreciate it. 192 00:11:10,040 --> 00:11:13,000 Speaker 1: Love getting your perspective here. Chat with you going forward. 193 00:11:13,000 --> 00:11:15,880 Speaker 1: But again, a big big deal UH in the railroad 194 00:11:15,920 --> 00:11:18,720 Speaker 1: business in this country as both Canadian railroads taking a big, 195 00:11:18,760 --> 00:11:22,160 Speaker 1: big liking to Kansas City Southern Tony Hatch principal at 196 00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:24,880 Speaker 1: A B H Consulting, that's his consulting firm. He talks 197 00:11:25,040 --> 00:11:27,640 Speaker 1: all the rig railroads, talks the institutional investors. He's got 198 00:11:27,640 --> 00:11:30,400 Speaker 1: his UH finger on the pulse of that industry and 199 00:11:30,440 --> 00:11:33,360 Speaker 1: he was a very good guy to learn the industry from. UH. 200 00:11:33,360 --> 00:11:35,079 Speaker 1: So I can say that much and I still know 201 00:11:35,679 --> 00:11:38,800 Speaker 1: revenue ton Miles, Matt, that's the key metric for your 202 00:11:38,840 --> 00:11:41,080 Speaker 1: earnings models. How much did you make moving a ton 203 00:11:41,240 --> 00:11:48,840 Speaker 1: of freight. Well, we're all buying more and more stuff online. 204 00:11:48,880 --> 00:11:50,959 Speaker 1: It seems like there are boxes in front of every 205 00:11:51,000 --> 00:11:53,920 Speaker 1: door across America on a daily basis. But what about 206 00:11:53,920 --> 00:11:57,680 Speaker 1: the jewelry business? Has that gone online? Has that gone digital? 207 00:11:57,720 --> 00:11:59,960 Speaker 1: Let's check in with Tom Nolan. He's a newly appointed 208 00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:04,120 Speaker 1: CEO of Julie firm Kendrick Scott. Tom, thanks so much 209 00:12:04,160 --> 00:12:06,800 Speaker 1: for joining us here, love to get your thoughts. Just 210 00:12:06,840 --> 00:12:11,360 Speaker 1: starting out, how has your business, the jewelry business been 211 00:12:11,880 --> 00:12:15,640 Speaker 1: impacted by the pandemic. Yeah, thanks for having me on. 212 00:12:15,679 --> 00:12:19,440 Speaker 1: I appreciated good morning. Um, you know, two thousand twenty, 213 00:12:20,280 --> 00:12:23,120 Speaker 1: the year of COVID and even leading into has really been. 214 00:12:23,800 --> 00:12:26,439 Speaker 1: It's been a fantastic year for us from our business perspective, 215 00:12:27,440 --> 00:12:30,920 Speaker 1: challenging one for our society obviously, But um, we really 216 00:12:30,920 --> 00:12:33,680 Speaker 1: weather the storm remarkably well. I would say we were 217 00:12:34,000 --> 00:12:35,880 Speaker 1: for sure an outlier, and I'm really proud of the 218 00:12:35,880 --> 00:12:37,480 Speaker 1: team and what a great job they did do in it. 219 00:12:39,800 --> 00:12:44,480 Speaker 1: So what have you been doing to sell more stuff online? 220 00:12:44,520 --> 00:12:47,960 Speaker 1: I mean, I imagine, you know, sometimes I'll go around 221 00:12:47,960 --> 00:12:49,920 Speaker 1: and look at watch I'm not really a jewelry guy, 222 00:12:49,920 --> 00:12:52,840 Speaker 1: but I'll look at watch websites and they have kind 223 00:12:52,840 --> 00:12:56,400 Speaker 1: of developed into more interesting places I guess to spend time, 224 00:12:56,440 --> 00:12:58,880 Speaker 1: but otherwise, you know, I just need to see a 225 00:12:58,920 --> 00:13:03,360 Speaker 1: picture and I know if I want it. Yeah, you know. 226 00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:06,200 Speaker 1: I think our our business has always been really experiential. 227 00:13:06,280 --> 00:13:08,160 Speaker 1: And then it's from when Kendra started the company twenty 228 00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:11,040 Speaker 1: years ago. It's been been a really experiential business and 229 00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:13,800 Speaker 1: we lead that to brick and mortar and retail, and 230 00:13:13,840 --> 00:13:15,880 Speaker 1: so it was a it was a challenge for us 231 00:13:16,440 --> 00:13:19,480 Speaker 1: as more customers migrated to the web business to create 232 00:13:19,520 --> 00:13:22,240 Speaker 1: that experience and and deliver it to folks online. I 233 00:13:22,240 --> 00:13:23,800 Speaker 1: think at the end of the day, what we've really 234 00:13:23,840 --> 00:13:27,040 Speaker 1: always focused on. We know that the customers are boss. 235 00:13:27,080 --> 00:13:29,400 Speaker 1: I mean she she ultimately signed my paychecks and all 236 00:13:29,400 --> 00:13:32,559 Speaker 1: of our companies paychecks, and and it's important that we're 237 00:13:32,559 --> 00:13:34,760 Speaker 1: meeting her and him wherever they are. And I think 238 00:13:35,200 --> 00:13:40,360 Speaker 1: what we saw was that everybody migrated online when brick 239 00:13:40,360 --> 00:13:43,560 Speaker 1: and mortar stores were closed. We managed to have a 240 00:13:43,600 --> 00:13:46,240 Speaker 1: successful retail the year last year. We're still having a 241 00:13:46,280 --> 00:13:49,600 Speaker 1: successful retail year this year. And additionally, on top of it, 242 00:13:49,640 --> 00:13:52,600 Speaker 1: and there's huge incre mentality and what happened in the 243 00:13:52,600 --> 00:13:55,640 Speaker 1: web business um and we just tried to pivot and 244 00:13:55,640 --> 00:13:58,920 Speaker 1: move very quickly to meet them where they where they 245 00:13:58,960 --> 00:14:01,000 Speaker 1: wanted to buy. And as everybody is seen in the 246 00:14:01,040 --> 00:14:04,520 Speaker 1: markets and the macroeconomic indicators, I mean, there was a 247 00:14:04,520 --> 00:14:06,800 Speaker 1: lot more discretion your income. People weren't going on vacations, 248 00:14:06,800 --> 00:14:08,640 Speaker 1: they weren't taking trips the same way. So I think 249 00:14:09,040 --> 00:14:11,959 Speaker 1: folks like yourself, we're looking for things to do in 250 00:14:12,040 --> 00:14:14,439 Speaker 1: a lot of ways, and I think we're fortunate to 251 00:14:14,960 --> 00:14:17,000 Speaker 1: be on the receiving end of that. And our brand 252 00:14:17,040 --> 00:14:18,640 Speaker 1: just means a lot to a lot of people. It's 253 00:14:19,160 --> 00:14:21,120 Speaker 1: philanthropies and the core of it and the heart of it, 254 00:14:21,160 --> 00:14:24,240 Speaker 1: and we always try to do good. It's it was 255 00:14:24,640 --> 00:14:26,560 Speaker 1: remarkable year and it taught us a lot and it 256 00:14:26,560 --> 00:14:29,440 Speaker 1: made us all better and stronger and faster. So who 257 00:14:29,440 --> 00:14:32,360 Speaker 1: do you compete with? Uh, Tom? You know, now as 258 00:14:32,440 --> 00:14:34,560 Speaker 1: your as your business kind of you know, becomes a 259 00:14:34,560 --> 00:14:39,240 Speaker 1: little bit more digital, you know, yeah, first and foremost, 260 00:14:39,280 --> 00:14:42,400 Speaker 1: I think are we our largest competitors ourselves? Right? I mean, 261 00:14:42,440 --> 00:14:44,320 Speaker 1: we just we're always competing against doing better than we 262 00:14:44,400 --> 00:14:46,880 Speaker 1: did the day before, the year before. But we're in 263 00:14:46,880 --> 00:14:50,280 Speaker 1: the jewelry space and accessory space. Brands like Kate Spade, 264 00:14:50,320 --> 00:14:55,080 Speaker 1: brands like Tiffany's and Tom and James, Bablo, bar Pandora Oriana. 265 00:14:55,640 --> 00:14:57,800 Speaker 1: I'd say brands like that are the ones that we 266 00:14:57,800 --> 00:15:00,200 Speaker 1: were competing against on the day to day basis. So 267 00:15:00,240 --> 00:15:03,680 Speaker 1: what kind of spending do you expect from stimulus? Have 268 00:15:03,720 --> 00:15:05,800 Speaker 1: you seen a big boost from the checks that went 269 00:15:05,840 --> 00:15:08,280 Speaker 1: out or do you think we're going to see, you know, 270 00:15:08,360 --> 00:15:13,640 Speaker 1: post pandemic, a huge spending splurge. Yeah, I think that 271 00:15:13,720 --> 00:15:15,160 Speaker 1: we all saw it. I mean, if you're if you're 272 00:15:15,160 --> 00:15:19,440 Speaker 1: paying attention to networks and stations like y'alls, there was 273 00:15:19,480 --> 00:15:23,360 Speaker 1: definitely an increase in stimulus spending, and I think there 274 00:15:23,440 --> 00:15:25,520 Speaker 1: was a lot of consumer brands around the receiving into that. 275 00:15:26,360 --> 00:15:29,160 Speaker 1: You know, it's the market is you know, is so 276 00:15:30,160 --> 00:15:32,880 Speaker 1: so challenging. I mean, it's really more it's harder to 277 00:15:32,920 --> 00:15:34,320 Speaker 1: figure out that there never has been before us. So 278 00:15:34,400 --> 00:15:37,400 Speaker 1: I think for us, we think about controlling the things 279 00:15:37,440 --> 00:15:39,080 Speaker 1: that we can control. If we know that if we 280 00:15:39,120 --> 00:15:41,440 Speaker 1: make a great product, if we focus on the customer, 281 00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:43,880 Speaker 1: if we deliver a great experience, we make our web 282 00:15:43,920 --> 00:15:47,280 Speaker 1: experience as good or better than our retail experience, we're 283 00:15:47,280 --> 00:15:49,480 Speaker 1: going to continue to win. So you know, I can't 284 00:15:49,480 --> 00:15:53,760 Speaker 1: control what what happens in the market, so we can 285 00:15:53,800 --> 00:15:55,280 Speaker 1: control the things that we do, and I think when 286 00:15:55,280 --> 00:15:56,880 Speaker 1: we when we do that, well, we're gonna continue to 287 00:15:56,880 --> 00:15:59,000 Speaker 1: be successful and win, all right, tom So, it just 288 00:15:59,040 --> 00:16:00,840 Speaker 1: gives a sense of how much of your business now 289 00:16:00,920 --> 00:16:03,560 Speaker 1: is sold in stores, you know, the brick and mortar 290 00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:06,080 Speaker 1: versus online, and how do you think that split might 291 00:16:06,200 --> 00:16:10,040 Speaker 1: develop going forward? Yeah, so so two thousand nineteen is 292 00:16:10,080 --> 00:16:13,040 Speaker 1: probably the best indicator is a benchmark. In that year, 293 00:16:13,040 --> 00:16:15,360 Speaker 1: almost six of our business was brick and mortar and 294 00:16:15,400 --> 00:16:20,120 Speaker 1: retail about it was was online. At the end of 295 00:16:20,200 --> 00:16:22,800 Speaker 1: last year, it almost was. I think at the end 296 00:16:22,800 --> 00:16:24,400 Speaker 1: of this year it's going to be pretty close to 297 00:16:24,440 --> 00:16:27,200 Speaker 1: that as well. As it relates to our direct consumer business. 298 00:16:27,240 --> 00:16:30,440 Speaker 1: We have a meaningful wholesale business as well, but I'm 299 00:16:30,600 --> 00:16:33,880 Speaker 1: continue to still build pretty bullish on the retail side 300 00:16:33,880 --> 00:16:36,680 Speaker 1: of things. I think it has also created some nice 301 00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:39,960 Speaker 1: inventory opportunities and the right kind of places. We always 302 00:16:39,960 --> 00:16:43,320 Speaker 1: focused on outdoor centers primary for us, and those those 303 00:16:43,360 --> 00:16:47,680 Speaker 1: certainly got through COVID better than others. Um. But I 304 00:16:47,720 --> 00:16:49,840 Speaker 1: think that there's been such a pent up demands. I 305 00:16:49,920 --> 00:16:52,760 Speaker 1: was with some folktion of Cowboys last night and we're 306 00:16:52,760 --> 00:16:55,400 Speaker 1: talking about this. There's been such a pent up demand 307 00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:57,320 Speaker 1: for people to get out and get back to normalcy. 308 00:16:57,960 --> 00:17:00,560 Speaker 1: I think the web customer has change and forever and 309 00:17:00,560 --> 00:17:03,200 Speaker 1: it's always going to be dominant force. But I also 310 00:17:03,240 --> 00:17:05,360 Speaker 1: think that there's this demand of people wanting to get 311 00:17:05,359 --> 00:17:07,840 Speaker 1: back out and return to normalcy. They're going to a 312 00:17:07,840 --> 00:17:12,040 Speaker 1: sporting event, going shopping for themselves or somebody in their lives. 313 00:17:12,040 --> 00:17:15,320 Speaker 1: And I we've seen a little bit of that regionally 314 00:17:15,520 --> 00:17:17,520 Speaker 1: where states that open up a little bit sooner, like 315 00:17:17,560 --> 00:17:20,800 Speaker 1: Texas in the southeast, and I anticipate seeing a little 316 00:17:20,840 --> 00:17:24,479 Speaker 1: bit more in the markets that we're a little bit 317 00:17:24,520 --> 00:17:27,159 Speaker 1: more behind. So at the end of this year, we're 318 00:17:27,200 --> 00:17:29,520 Speaker 1: gonna be real post to answer your question, but I 319 00:17:29,560 --> 00:17:31,880 Speaker 1: think retail still is going to be meaningful for us 320 00:17:32,359 --> 00:17:34,120 Speaker 1: and all the other retailers. Some things to think about 321 00:17:34,119 --> 00:17:37,800 Speaker 1: it that way, and business too. I would just add 322 00:17:37,840 --> 00:17:41,199 Speaker 1: one more thing is that we're small footprints. Um, you know, 323 00:17:41,240 --> 00:17:43,399 Speaker 1: in the jewelry of business, we don't have sizes. We 324 00:17:43,440 --> 00:17:48,280 Speaker 1: don't need huge, big, monster storytelling retail spaces, so it 325 00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:50,919 Speaker 1: helps us economically as well. Tom grad spending some time 326 00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:57,400 Speaker 1: with you, Tom Nolan, CEO of Kendra Scott. Now we're 327 00:17:57,400 --> 00:18:01,440 Speaker 1: bringing Fiona Sincana Senior Mark could find a senior financial 328 00:18:01,440 --> 00:18:05,680 Speaker 1: markets analysts City Index. It's a retail division of stone 329 00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:08,520 Speaker 1: X and Fiona, let me start by asking you about 330 00:18:08,600 --> 00:18:12,080 Speaker 1: what we're seeing in U s docks um investors selling 331 00:18:12,119 --> 00:18:15,800 Speaker 1: off buying into bonds even with you know, these huge 332 00:18:15,840 --> 00:18:21,400 Speaker 1: growth expectations and inflation fears. What's happening in the US 333 00:18:21,480 --> 00:18:25,040 Speaker 1: equity market today. Yes, so what we're seeing is we 334 00:18:25,119 --> 00:18:28,080 Speaker 1: said we we we sort of had record high struck 335 00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:31,720 Speaker 1: last week with the Dow in the SMP and then 336 00:18:31,760 --> 00:18:33,960 Speaker 1: today is the second day of losses that we're seeing. 337 00:18:34,040 --> 00:18:36,120 Speaker 1: So we sort of set off yesterday, we're seeing another 338 00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:38,480 Speaker 1: still off today, and there is that sort of there 339 00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:42,600 Speaker 1: is this feeling of risk off trade going on. We've 340 00:18:42,600 --> 00:18:46,040 Speaker 1: got demands for sort of riskier assets such as equity 341 00:18:46,080 --> 00:18:49,040 Speaker 1: is sort of really coming off invested litten to pull 342 00:18:49,160 --> 00:18:51,240 Speaker 1: risk off the table, when whilst we've got sort of 343 00:18:51,280 --> 00:18:54,119 Speaker 1: the more safe haven such as the US gold just 344 00:18:54,280 --> 00:18:57,439 Speaker 1: taking higher. I think the big concern here is with 345 00:18:57,520 --> 00:19:00,600 Speaker 1: these rising COVID numbers again, so well, the US is 346 00:19:00,640 --> 00:19:03,280 Speaker 1: doing a very good job at reopening and getting vaccines 347 00:19:03,280 --> 00:19:05,960 Speaker 1: out there. The rest of the world of very much 348 00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:09,720 Speaker 1: sort of India and Pakistani can talk with Asia, the 349 00:19:09,800 --> 00:19:13,199 Speaker 1: situation is much more concerning, and I think there is 350 00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:16,280 Speaker 1: this fear about how that's going to impact on the 351 00:19:16,359 --> 00:19:22,199 Speaker 1: global growth and global economic recovery. So if you know, 352 00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:26,040 Speaker 1: we're just you know, about ten the way through this 353 00:19:26,080 --> 00:19:28,800 Speaker 1: first quarter earning season, we've seen some names and when 354 00:19:28,840 --> 00:19:30,560 Speaker 1: you think about the banks, lest we've put up some 355 00:19:30,680 --> 00:19:34,240 Speaker 1: huge numbers, yet the stocks, uh you know, are flat 356 00:19:34,320 --> 00:19:36,600 Speaker 1: or down on the news. Is that suggests to you 357 00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:41,960 Speaker 1: that this market is priced too close to perfection it does, 358 00:19:42,280 --> 00:19:45,959 Speaker 1: or even slightly slightly overextended. It could be. I mean, 359 00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:48,959 Speaker 1: we did have some really strong data at the end 360 00:19:48,960 --> 00:19:51,640 Speaker 1: of last week as far as the U S data 361 00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:54,680 Speaker 1: on retail PUS and inflation. With bolts so higher, we'd 362 00:19:54,720 --> 00:19:58,240 Speaker 1: have some great UM numbers from the banks as well. 363 00:19:58,280 --> 00:20:01,920 Speaker 1: So so really we were with those really strong numbers 364 00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:05,040 Speaker 1: sitting at all time high UM, and then we've had 365 00:20:05,080 --> 00:20:07,120 Speaker 1: this sort of sort of doubt to come in. There 366 00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:10,480 Speaker 1: are some concerns about where we might be going forward. 367 00:20:10,680 --> 00:20:14,400 Speaker 1: I think there's also a lot of high high expectations 368 00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:17,679 Speaker 1: for this earning season and when expectations are so high, 369 00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:21,240 Speaker 1: it does make it very difficult to please the market. 370 00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:23,080 Speaker 1: So sort of you know, to have a really good 371 00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:26,119 Speaker 1: upside surprise is given me much harder um. And so 372 00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:30,399 Speaker 1: that does mean that sort of any slight um concerns 373 00:20:30,520 --> 00:20:33,000 Speaker 1: or any niggles that the market could have to see 374 00:20:33,000 --> 00:20:36,280 Speaker 1: the stocks fall off quite quickly. How important our Netflix 375 00:20:36,280 --> 00:20:40,159 Speaker 1: earnings to text docs? I think these are going to 376 00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:43,359 Speaker 1: be really important. They're really going to be closely watched. 377 00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:45,600 Speaker 1: I mean, if we think about it, that the first 378 00:20:45,640 --> 00:20:48,720 Speaker 1: three months of this year, they were still lockdown um 379 00:20:49,359 --> 00:20:53,760 Speaker 1: uh sort of measured imposed and so that does support 380 00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:59,080 Speaker 1: the stay at home steam really boosted Netflix across the 381 00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:03,080 Speaker 1: past year. But we've also got heating up competition. There's 382 00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:05,959 Speaker 1: a big focus on content. So I think there's going 383 00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:09,560 Speaker 1: to be a really really close watch on how these 384 00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:11,960 Speaker 1: are going to perform and also what that means for 385 00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:14,960 Speaker 1: other text stops coming forward to next week when we've 386 00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:18,720 Speaker 1: got the big US TEX stops coming through. So these 387 00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:20,840 Speaker 1: are really going to be sort of you know, setting 388 00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:23,960 Speaker 1: the trends and letting investors sort of have an idea 389 00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:28,240 Speaker 1: to how that stay at home play is still in 390 00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:31,399 Speaker 1: going on, or whether we are sort of on that 391 00:21:31,520 --> 00:21:35,880 Speaker 1: customers rotation out of that. So if you know, kind 392 00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:38,400 Speaker 1: of on the other side of the typical tech traders, 393 00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:41,640 Speaker 1: you've got a cyclical trade and a trade into small 394 00:21:41,680 --> 00:21:45,280 Speaker 1: cap stocks that's been working for a lot of investors. 395 00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:49,320 Speaker 1: Really since September of last year. That cyclical rotation trade, 396 00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:51,400 Speaker 1: if you will, has really been paying off. Is that's 397 00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:56,879 Speaker 1: something you expect to continue. It could do. It's something 398 00:21:56,920 --> 00:21:59,680 Speaker 1: that I think we could still seem much more room 399 00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:03,200 Speaker 1: for the cyclical to to gain. But it just depends 400 00:22:03,240 --> 00:22:06,359 Speaker 1: now and what happens as far as the COVID situation 401 00:22:06,480 --> 00:22:09,960 Speaker 1: globally is taking place. So if we feel that, if 402 00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:15,080 Speaker 1: if the dissentiment concerning COVID is really starting to to 403 00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:18,320 Speaker 1: unnerve investors again, then we're just going to see a 404 00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:21,840 Speaker 1: hold back on that rotation into cyculical them back into grad. 405 00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:24,159 Speaker 1: But if we can get under this, this sort of 406 00:22:24,240 --> 00:22:27,560 Speaker 1: draw a line under this COVID concern, which I think 407 00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:30,840 Speaker 1: we're still some way off for the moment, that then 408 00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:33,440 Speaker 1: that would mean that would have a much stronger move 409 00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:36,440 Speaker 1: back into ciculical. So I think that the trade isn't over, 410 00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:38,080 Speaker 1: but I just think the timing on it is not 411 00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:41,760 Speaker 1: quite right in the moment. You just got a minute left. 412 00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:44,000 Speaker 1: I want to get your thoughts on cryptol. I mean, 413 00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:47,200 Speaker 1: I know it doesn't seem to be influencing financial assets 414 00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:48,919 Speaker 1: that much, but the run up has been amazing and 415 00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:53,399 Speaker 1: now the slump this week, oh completely. I mean it 416 00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:56,240 Speaker 1: has been one wild ride. And I mean if that's 417 00:22:56,280 --> 00:22:59,280 Speaker 1: something that crypto is really well known for, its sort 418 00:22:59,280 --> 00:23:02,639 Speaker 1: of loose why off twings, and it's definitely not disappointing 419 00:23:03,119 --> 00:23:06,760 Speaker 1: as far as that's consent, and it's been one that 420 00:23:06,800 --> 00:23:10,439 Speaker 1: we've been watching extremely closely. We have those those highs 421 00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:12,960 Speaker 1: as we have the the I p A from coin based, 422 00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:16,360 Speaker 1: and then it's sort of the slumped down afterwards has 423 00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:19,959 Speaker 1: been absolute spectacular. But that's what we expect from crypto, right, 424 00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:23,040 Speaker 1: that's sort of those big moves exactly what it's all about. 425 00:23:23,080 --> 00:23:27,760 Speaker 1: So just yeah, it's definitely some type for those rides. Fiana, 426 00:23:27,800 --> 00:23:31,080 Speaker 1: thanks so much for journing us. We appreciate a Fiona Sinkata, 427 00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:35,080 Speaker 1: senior financial markets analysts at the City Index, Thanks for 428 00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:38,600 Speaker 1: listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and 429 00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:42,720 Speaker 1: listen to interviews of Apple podcasts or whatever podcast platform 430 00:23:42,760 --> 00:23:46,080 Speaker 1: you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt 431 00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:49,639 Speaker 1: Miller ninety three. On bo Sweeney, I'm on Twitter at 432 00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:52,520 Speaker 1: pt sweeney Before the podcast. You can always catch us 433 00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:53,960 Speaker 1: worldwide at Bloomberg Radio