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Speaker 1: Welcome to Brainstuff, a production of iHeart Radio. Hey brain Stuff,

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Speaker 1: Lauren Vogelbaum here. The two mid term elections are fast

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Speaker 1: approaching in the United States, and if you live in

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Speaker 1: a state with a hotly contested race and watch television,

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Speaker 1: you're probably being blasted by political TV ads. By late September,

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Speaker 1: campaigns across the United States had already spent more than

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Speaker 1: six point four billion dollars on ads, including television, print,

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Speaker 1: and online, and are expected to spend a total of

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Speaker 1: nine point seven billion by election day in November, far

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Speaker 1: more than either the eight or twenty elections. This year's

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Speaker 1: record spending on TV and other types of political ads

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Speaker 1: reflects the high stakes of the two mid terms. The

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Speaker 1: Senate is split fifty fifty and the Dempcrats hold the

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Speaker 1: House of Representatives by a slim nine seat majority. For

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Speaker 1: the article this episode is based on, has to Fork

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Speaker 1: spoke with Christopher Warshaw, a political science professor at George

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Speaker 1: Washington University. He said campaigns hope that by buying a

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Speaker 1: few extra thousand ads, they can put their candidates over

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Speaker 1: the top and win control of the government for their party.

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Speaker 1: The American public is more polarized than ever before. But

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Speaker 1: there's still the swath of independent voters in the middle

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Speaker 1: who are trying to decide, and political ads, despite how

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Speaker 1: annoying and even stressful they can be, have proven effective,

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Speaker 1: especially in the tightest races. Even a bombardment of ads

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Speaker 1: doesn't necessarily turn people off. Warshop and two other researchers

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Speaker 1: published a study this year in the journal American Political

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Speaker 1: Science Review examining the effectiveness of political tv ads. They

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Speaker 1: found that basically the one thousand that is only modestly

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Speaker 1: less effective than the tenth presidential election was decided by

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Speaker 1: razor thin margins of victory for Republican candidate Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: in battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In Joe

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Speaker 1: Biden and the Democrats spent heavily on political tv ads

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Speaker 1: in those same battleground markets. As election day of approached,

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Speaker 1: pro Biden tv ads outnumbered pro Trump ads by over

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Speaker 1: five thousand in key markets like Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, and by

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Speaker 1: over four thousand in Green Bay, Wisconsin. In their research,

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Speaker 1: Warshaw and his colleagues estimated that for every additional thousand

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Speaker 1: TV ads a campaign runs compared to its opponent, it

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Speaker 1: can capture zero point two percentage points more of the vote,

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Speaker 1: and the results of the presidential election seemed to bear

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Speaker 1: this out. In sixteen, Trump one Wisconsin by about zero

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Speaker 1: point seven percent, but in Biden one Wisconsin by zero

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Speaker 1: point seven percent. The same swing happened in Pennsylvania, in

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Speaker 1: Trump won by zero point seven percent, but in Biden

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Speaker 1: won the state by one point two percent. For their study,

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Speaker 1: Warshop and his co authors analyzed data for more than

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Speaker 1: two thousand, two hundred and fifty U S elections from

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Speaker 1: the year two thousand through and not just presidential races.

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Speaker 1: What they found was the tv ads had a much

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Speaker 1: greater effect on down ballot races compared with presidential contests,

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Speaker 1: three times greater effect for senate races, four times greater

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Speaker 1: for gubernatorial races, and twelve times greater for the more

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Speaker 1: obscure races like state treasurer. The reason, says Warshop, is

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Speaker 1: that the whole function of political tv ads is to

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Speaker 1: convey some sort of new information to the voter. Quote

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Speaker 1: at the presidential level, ads don't give you much new

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Speaker 1: information that you didn't already have. We already knew so

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Speaker 1: much about Donald Trump and Joe Biden and Barack Obama.

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Speaker 1: Whereas the races for the House, or governor or Senate,

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Speaker 1: people are following those a lot less closely, voters might

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Speaker 1: not know anything about those candidates beyond their party affiliation.

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Speaker 1: For that target demographic of undecid I did swing voters.

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Speaker 1: Any new information provided by a tv AD about a

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Speaker 1: state or local race could swing them in the campaign's

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Speaker 1: desired direction. Many studies have been done on the effectiveness

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Speaker 1: of political tv ads and have shown mixed results. Some

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Speaker 1: studies determined that these ads have limited persuasive power. Other

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Speaker 1: studies have shown that it's the nature of the ads

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Speaker 1: that's the issue, positive versus negative. While Warshaw and colleagues

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Speaker 1: didn't look at the content of ads in their study,

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Speaker 1: he did point us to another study that showed all

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Speaker 1: types of ads a positive, negative, partisan nonpartisan seemed to

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Speaker 1: have the same small effect on voting outcomes. But in

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Speaker 1: the game of tv ads, the point is not to

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Speaker 1: convince a registered Democrat to vote for the Republican candidate.

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Speaker 1: It's to speak to the independent voters. Warshaw reiterates that

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Speaker 1: their research showed a very small effect of tv ads

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Speaker 1: on influencing people to vote for a certain candidate with

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Speaker 1: the largest plausible effect being one or two percentage point.

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Speaker 1: So if he was consulting on a campaign on how

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Speaker 1: to spend its money, he wouldn't automatically recommend pouring millions

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Speaker 1: of dollars into TV ads. The needle might simply not

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Speaker 1: sway enough. But as we saw in the last two

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Speaker 1: presidential races, there are plenty of contests that have been

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Speaker 1: decided by less than one percentage point a. Warshaw says

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Speaker 1: that this is also a lesson for political donors who

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Speaker 1: want the most bang for their buck. A donation to

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Speaker 1: a presidential campaign is a drop in the bucket, but

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Speaker 1: that same donation to a down ballot race could buy

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Speaker 1: more ads that actually influence the outcome. However, it's important

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Speaker 1: to note that research into past behaviors like Warshaws, was

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Speaker 1: looking at data from a time when most American voters

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Speaker 1: watched hours of cable television every day. Their study ended

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Speaker 1: with data from between one though a quarter of all

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Speaker 1: cable TV subscribers cut the cord and switched to streaming.

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Speaker 1: Projections say that fewer than half of all American households

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Speaker 1: will have cable TV subscriptions by digital ads like the

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Speaker 1: political ads you might see on Facebook or before a

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Speaker 1: YouTube video have been found to have an even smaller

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Speaker 1: effect on voters. But political advertisers are getting smarter now.

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Speaker 1: On ad supported streaming TV channels like Lifetime or Vice,

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Speaker 1: campaigns can run hyper targeted ads based on the subscribers

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Speaker 1: personal data. Because so many Internet platforms now collect and

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Speaker 1: sell our data, everything from what other things you watched,

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Speaker 1: read and buy, to demographics like age, gender and race

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Speaker 1: or ethnicity, to your voting record and the estimated value

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Speaker 1: of your home could all be influencing what ads your serve.

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Speaker 1: Just when you thought spooky season was over, You can

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Speaker 1: run from political ads, but you can't hide. Today's episode

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Speaker 1: is based on the article do campaign TV ads really

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Speaker 1: changed voters? Lines on hous to works dot com, written

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Speaker 1: by Dave Rouse Brainstuff it's production of by Heart Radio

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Speaker 1: in partnership with houst works dot com and it's produced

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Speaker 1: by Tyler Klang. Four more podcasts from my heart Radio,

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