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Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to What Goes Up, a weekly markets podcast.

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Speaker 1: My name is Mike Reagan. I'm a senior editor at Bloomberg,

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Speaker 1: and I'm about a high across ASID reporter with Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: This week on the show, Well, stocks are all over

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Speaker 1: the map again, with benchmark indexes moving one to three

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Speaker 1: per cent or more each day between their highs and lows,

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Speaker 1: and treasury yields continue to creep higher. Most are at

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Speaker 1: the hyst in more than fifteen years. Meanwhile, just about

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Speaker 1: everyone is convinced that at least a mild recession is

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Speaker 1: on the horizon. So what on earth are you supposed

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Speaker 1: to do with your money at a time like this.

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Speaker 1: We'll get into it with the chief market strategist of

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Speaker 1: a major investment company, But first, fill Donna, just get

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Speaker 1: it out of your system. I I know what you

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Speaker 1: want to do with your money. You want to bet

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Speaker 1: on the Buffalo bills forever, at least at least gloat

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Speaker 1: about the Buffalo bills. So get it out of your system.

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Speaker 1: Go ahead. I'm not going to gloat. I'm a very

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Speaker 1: superstitious person, so I need good karma, so no gloating

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Speaker 1: on on my end. However, Josh Allen is a superhuman.

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Speaker 1: Did you watch the game? He's pretty good? Yeah, I watched.

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Speaker 1: I watched most of it. I uh, did you see

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Speaker 1: him jump over that man? He jumped over a man?

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Speaker 1: Who does that? He jumped like eight feet into the

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Speaker 1: air that I can barely jump over a small child.

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Speaker 1: How a woman who grew up where you grew up

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Speaker 1: is not an Eagles fan or at least a Giants

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Speaker 1: are Jets fan? I would I would even allow Giants

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Speaker 1: or Jets. No, your tongue not giants, No, no, no, yeah,

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Speaker 1: no Eagles. I'm with you on the Eagles, definitely. Uh.

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Speaker 1: And I'm rooting for them. I'm happy that they're doing well.

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Speaker 1: But the Bills are so fun to watch. Was your

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Speaker 1: husband lured you into the Bills name? Yeah he's from Buffalo, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: he's from Well you're you're a good wife. My wife

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Speaker 1: is an Eagles fan too. There's no way I could

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Speaker 1: have lured her away from the Eagles of fire. I

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Speaker 1: have an Eagles jersey. Of all the games I've been

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Speaker 1: to in my life, the majority of them were Eagles games.

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Speaker 1: All Right, there you go, I'll give you that. How

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Speaker 1: many folding tables are left in your apartment right now. Oh. None, none,

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Speaker 1: They've all been broken through. They've all been broken by

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Speaker 1: Bills fans. Yeah, Wills fans has set themselves on fire

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Speaker 1: and then jumped through tables as as one does. Yes,

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Speaker 1: we have a guest here with us. We should bring

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Speaker 1: her in. Christina, who per chief Global Market Strategy, said Investco,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us, Thank you for

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Speaker 1: having me. Christina might be a Jets or a Giants fan,

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Speaker 1: but well we'll leave that for another coming. All right,

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Speaker 1: spell the beans, Christina, who's your team? The next, the next,

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Speaker 1: the nick It's like it's like um poo petually being

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Speaker 1: in the seventh circle of hell. That's good. I didn't

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Speaker 1: want to say anything. I didn't want to say anything.

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Speaker 1: But you definitely develop an important skill, uh, in terms

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Speaker 1: of patience and persistence and and constant optimism, or else

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Speaker 1: you would just exactly else, you would just lose your mind.

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Speaker 1: That's a buy and hold franchise, I guess for sure.

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Speaker 1: But Christina, markets have been very interesting in the last

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Speaker 1: couple of days, and I was hoping to just start

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Speaker 1: out with you're talking about what it's been like to

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Speaker 1: be a part of this market, to be watching this

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Speaker 1: market and everything that we've seen going on where we

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Speaker 1: have these you know, stretches of days where it's up

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Speaker 1: two percent, down two down. It's just very volatile. It's

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Speaker 1: incredibly volatile, and yet in a way it makes sense

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Speaker 1: given that we have this one key driver of markets

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Speaker 1: this year, and it's been the FED and really the

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Speaker 1: just dramatically shifting expectations around what the Fed is going

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Speaker 1: to do. The FED has even surprised itself. You know,

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Speaker 1: if we look at the dot plot from December of one,

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Speaker 1: they thought they'd be at ninety basis points at the

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Speaker 1: end of two. Now they think as of the September

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Speaker 1: dot plot they'll be at four forty basis points. That

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Speaker 1: to me is monetary policy whiplash. And those kinds of

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Speaker 1: surprises are are why we see the volatility, not just

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Speaker 1: in stocks, but in bonds. You know, Christine, I know

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Speaker 1: a lot of people were hoping that at least we

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Speaker 1: get some diversion from the FED focused during earning season,

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Speaker 1: and it seemed like, you know, the first couple of

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Speaker 1: earlier reporters, uh really sort of reignited some of the

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Speaker 1: bullish instincts in the market, and that's why we saw

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Speaker 1: some some really big gains. What are you looking out

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Speaker 1: for an earning season? Uh? What have you learned so far? Um?

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Speaker 1: You know, is there enough meat on the bone and

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Speaker 1: earnings to to maybe overpower that fed uh fixation in

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Speaker 1: the market. Great questions, so, and great questions. So let

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Speaker 1: me start at the beginning. What I've learned so far? Um?

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Speaker 1: First of all, it has been you know, fairly focused

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Speaker 1: on financials thus far. UM. What we've learned is that

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Speaker 1: consumers and businesses are in pretty good shape. Right. We've

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Speaker 1: heard that from multiple bank uh CEO s is that

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Speaker 1: that the consumers in good shape, businesses are in good

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Speaker 1: shape UM. And and that certainly is a positive in

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Speaker 1: terms of being able to weather economic headwinds, but it

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Speaker 1: is a negative in that the FED doesn't seem to

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Speaker 1: have cool demand very much. UM. We also know financial

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Speaker 1: conditions are tightening. We're hearing that, we're seeing it in

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Speaker 1: the data bank banks are providing in terms of, you know,

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Speaker 1: the average FICO score for people they're giving mortgages to. UM.

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Speaker 1: So fundamentals are are solid, um. But but clearly lenders

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Speaker 1: are becoming increasingly discerning UM, which is what the FED

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Speaker 1: wants to see. And we've also heard from a few

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Speaker 1: airlines UM, one major airline saying that that the summer

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Speaker 1: was very strong and they don't think that the demand

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Speaker 1: for travel that thirst has been quenched yet. UM. So

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Speaker 1: So you know, as I as I process the earnings reports,

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Speaker 1: I'm I'm beyond just the earnings results, which have been

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Speaker 1: relatively positive. You know, my takeaways are that the FED

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Speaker 1: hasn't necessarily achieved UM what it wants to uh yet

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Speaker 1: and so we could be in store for for a

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Speaker 1: fair number more rate hikes UM given this environment, Christina

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Speaker 1: and I ask you, we used to think about the

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Speaker 1: earning season as as a stretch of time that will

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Speaker 1: give us clarity on things that are going on. Can

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Speaker 1: we make that same case this time around? Or is

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Speaker 1: it so much that there's so much uncertainty with the FED,

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Speaker 1: the macrol look, etcetera, that the earning season really even

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Speaker 1: can't be giving us as much clarity as you might

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Speaker 1: have in the past. I think that's true to a

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Speaker 1: certain extent. I mean, let's think about it. You know,

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Speaker 1: earning season and j general UM is backward looking. What

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Speaker 1: we can glean about the future comes from UM. What

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Speaker 1: is shared on the earnings calls um to the extent

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Speaker 1: that management teams are willing to provide an outlook, and

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Speaker 1: I think it is UM far less clear because they

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Speaker 1: don't know where the FED funds rate is going to

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Speaker 1: go from here, and they really don't know how much

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Speaker 1: damage has been done thus far, because it takes some

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Speaker 1: time UM for that to actually make its way into

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Speaker 1: the main street economy and and show up in data

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Speaker 1: and certainly show up in their results. So I think

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Speaker 1: the question remains, you know, when is that other shoe

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Speaker 1: going to drop? Visa V earnings? Now, for some industries

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Speaker 1: it could very well drop this quarter, but but for

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Speaker 1: others it might not be this quarter, It might be

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Speaker 1: next or beyond. So what do you think we need

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Speaker 1: to see to get uh either not necessarily even a

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Speaker 1: full pivot from the Fed. I think you know, a

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Speaker 1: lot of people would be happy with just sort of

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Speaker 1: a go back to a fifth year basis point at

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Speaker 1: rate hike. But what what really where do you need

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Speaker 1: to see that inflation start to cool off? I'm guessing

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Speaker 1: is it the shelter and rent costs? Is that the

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Speaker 1: Is that the main issue that's still front and center

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Speaker 1: for them? Do you think, well, I think that's certainly

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Speaker 1: one key issue for them, but beyond that, I mean,

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Speaker 1: what we're seeing is a labor market that remains very tight,

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Speaker 1: and so that's showing up on the services side of

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Speaker 1: the economy, UM, that's showing up in in the wage

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Speaker 1: growth we've seen thus far. So you know, the FED,

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Speaker 1: I think, is looking at the economy through a Phillips

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Speaker 1: curve lens, and it believes it needs to achieve a

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Speaker 1: certain level of unemployment in order to see inflation moderate UM.

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Speaker 1: I would argue that doesn't have to be the case, though,

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Speaker 1: given this unique market environment where we have just such

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Speaker 1: a high level of job openings. Even after the last

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Speaker 1: Jolts report, we still have more job openings than there

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Speaker 1: are people to fill them. And so if we were

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Speaker 1: to see a major slashing of job openings, that reduces

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Speaker 1: labor mobility. Uh and and so that goal of of

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Speaker 1: moderating wage growth UM could potentially be achieved without having

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Speaker 1: very significant layoffs, without having a very substantial increase in unemployment.

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Speaker 1: So can you talk about what you foresee from the

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Speaker 1: Fed in the coming months, because we have the FED

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Speaker 1: minutes come out, but recently it was just last week,

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Speaker 1: and then also we had a report from Bloomberg, where

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Speaker 1: one of my colleagues actually looked through the minutes and

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Speaker 1: found I guess it was some detail that others hadn't noticed,

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Speaker 1: saying that FED officials were worried that the that we

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Speaker 1: were coming off of an extremely hot economy and that

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Speaker 1: that means that potentially they would be tightening for more

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Speaker 1: aggressively or for for longer than previously thought. So what

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Speaker 1: are you expecting from the Fed? Well, certainly the most

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Speaker 1: recent fo MC minutes, UM, we're not dubvish by any

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Speaker 1: stretch of the imagination. I think people held, you know,

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Speaker 1: people um anchored to that statement about a few participants

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Speaker 1: worrying that um, they were moving too quickly, they'd need

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Speaker 1: to calibrate because of of the delayed impact on the economy.

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Speaker 1: But in general, I think what the FED is telling

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Speaker 1: us is that inflation is not just job number one,

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Speaker 1: it's job number one, number two, number three, UM, and

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Speaker 1: that dual mandate really that that other part of the

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Speaker 1: dual mandate is is really getting going being put on

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Speaker 1: the back burner, um on the way way back burner,

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Speaker 1: as if focuses on inflation. So that says to me

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Speaker 1: that the FED will definitely high rates seventy five basis

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Speaker 1: points in November, UM, and I think seventy five basis

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Speaker 1: points is on the table for December as well. I

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Speaker 1: think that's a very real um uh likelihood, especially given

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Speaker 1: you know some of the recent statements we've gotten UM

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Speaker 1: arguing that UH that you know, the FED wants to

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Speaker 1: front load rate hikes like the Bank of Canada. Well,

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Speaker 1: you know, I thought we were like in the sixth

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Speaker 1: or seventh inning when it comes to rate hikes. So

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Speaker 1: to hear they're still talking about front loading UM causes

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Speaker 1: a little concern and does raise questions about when when

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Speaker 1: this finally comes to an end or even just eases somewhat.

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Speaker 1: You know, Christina, you mentioned the notion of the Fed

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Speaker 1: uh tightening until it breaks something, And it seems like

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Speaker 1: at the moment it's pretty close to a consensus that

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Speaker 1: the US is going to slide into at least a

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Speaker 1: shallow recession next year. UM. But I also look at

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Speaker 1: the market. You know, SMP five down as much as

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Speaker 1: and change percent from its high nas Doock index is

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Speaker 1: down even more in the thirties of percentages. With everybody

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Speaker 1: bracing for this recession, I mean, are we in one

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Speaker 1: of these crazy scenarios where the market is so far

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Speaker 1: ahead of the economy that it's it's mostly all been

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Speaker 1: priced in or almost all priced in. And if we

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Speaker 1: do get that slow down, that, uh you know, we'll

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Speaker 1: see that sort of contrarian instinct kick in and we'll

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Speaker 1: get a rally in the equity market. You think it's

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Speaker 1: the worst priced in? Do you think? I don't think

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Speaker 1: it's all priced in, but I do think some is

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Speaker 1: priced in. I mean, what we've seen this year is

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Speaker 1: a multiple contraction. I'm driven by the rise in the

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Speaker 1: ten year yield um? But has you know, has earnings

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Speaker 1: disappointment been fully priced in? Probably not, because we don't

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Speaker 1: know the extent of the impact earnings, because we don't

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Speaker 1: know the path of rate hikes from here. Uh So

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Speaker 1: I think that there's that level of uncertainty that that

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Speaker 1: makes it hard to price in. And uh to me,

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Speaker 1: I think there's the potential for another leg down. Are

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Speaker 1: we going to go down as as much as we

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Speaker 1: have of thus far? No? I highly doubt that, UM,

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Speaker 1: but I do think we could see another five to

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Speaker 1: seven percent drop too before we get to the point

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Speaker 1: UM where it's priced in and and where we're ready

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Speaker 1: to perhaps begin a bowl market, um that is anticipating

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Speaker 1: in economic recovery. And why has it been so difficult

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Speaker 1: to price things into the market this year? Is it

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Speaker 1: just because we have this discrepancy between what's going on

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Speaker 1: with the labor market and what's happening with inflation in

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Speaker 1: the Fed. Yeah, in a word, it's it's uh, seventy

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Speaker 1: is the new twenty five. When you're raising rates in

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Speaker 1: seventy five bases point increments UM, and you're not giving

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Speaker 1: any time to for it to process through and make

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Speaker 1: its way through the day into the data. UM, you're

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Speaker 1: playing a dangerous game. And the more you're doing it, um,

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Speaker 1: the more likelihood uh you create of having a recession

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Speaker 1: and a significant recession. So I think that is is

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Speaker 1: what's behind us. I think there's a lot of uncertainty

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Speaker 1: and and and as you point out, there's uncertainty around

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Speaker 1: inflation and where that goes from here. It's been stubbornly high. Christina.

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Speaker 1: You know when you say seventy five is the new careful,

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Speaker 1: you're setting Villdon off for a joke about my age.

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Speaker 1: You know, I can't say anything. Yeah, yeah, right, of course, Christina.

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Speaker 1: You know, Investco's a huge company, famous for a lot

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Speaker 1: of things, a lot of different investment strategies. UM. But

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Speaker 1: I think if you do like a name association with

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Speaker 1: a lot of people, they'll go right to the q

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Speaker 1: q Q, you know, the Nasdaq one hundred, uh et F.

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Speaker 1: I think you know a lot of people that I've

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Speaker 1: talked to, I've always gotten the sense that once we

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Speaker 1: got through the other side of the pandemic, when interest

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Speaker 1: rates normalize, growth normalizes, and and life becomes more or

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Speaker 1: like it was pre pandemic, that we once again see

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Speaker 1: that instinct to buy big growth tech uh. You know,

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Speaker 1: really the main companies in the in the q q

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Speaker 1: Q E t F. Is that still a real realistic

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Speaker 1: assumption or anticipation, I mean, is are we going to

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Speaker 1: revert back to where the big tech stocks are the

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Speaker 1: stars of the show or are we just in a

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Speaker 1: whole new paradigm now for the time being or for

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Speaker 1: the foreseeable future. Well, I certainly think that that, Uh,

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Speaker 1: it's likely we revert back to to tech performing better

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Speaker 1: um than the cyclical side of the stock market in

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Speaker 1: the near term. I mean, tech has been beaten down

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Speaker 1: as it traditionally has been by rising rates UM. But

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Speaker 1: once we get through a period of time and adjustment. UM.

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Speaker 1: Usually tech then then starts to perform significantly better. Um.

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Speaker 1: It's part of what investors now you as as the

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Speaker 1: defensive part of the stock market. And and so I

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Speaker 1: think there's there's certainly going to be a real interest

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Speaker 1: that doesn't go away. Also just for the longer term,

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Speaker 1: tech is a big part of innovation, it's a big

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Speaker 1: driver of of where the economy goes from here. Uh So,

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Speaker 1: so I think it's going to continue to be a

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Speaker 1: significant portion of most investors portfolios. And as you meant,

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Speaker 1: as Mike mentioned, you, you guys have this huge suite

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Speaker 1: of ETF products, And I'm wondering if you are also

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Speaker 1: tracking what the retail investor is doing, because you know

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Speaker 1: retail investors, they tend to favory tfs a lot. But

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Speaker 1: what is the retail cohort doing at the moment, Because

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Speaker 1: I've seen some notes recently and some interesting research that's

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Speaker 1: showing that they're selling into any rally really recently, whereas

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Speaker 1: earlier in the year maybe they were buying the dip

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Speaker 1: because they had been sort of conditioned to do that

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Speaker 1: over the last two years. So how important or what

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Speaker 1: role is the retail investor playing in this market. Well,

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Speaker 1: if we were to look at UM the AII sentiment surveys,

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Speaker 1: that certainly shows a very barish level of sentiment among

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Speaker 1: retail investors. But I think that's the kind of thing

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Speaker 1: you need, UM to help form a market bottom UM.

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Speaker 1: It can be a pretty temporary phenomenon, and unfortunately, I

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Speaker 1: think some retail investors hurt themselves by doing that. In fact,

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Speaker 1: I'd argue perhaps the biggest mistake made in the global

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Speaker 1: financial crisis or those investors, and it wasn't just retail,

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Speaker 1: it was also institutional that cashed out at or near

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Speaker 1: the bottom UM and then locked in their losses and

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Speaker 1: weren't able to participate in in a recovery. Uh So,

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Speaker 1: So certainly there's some of that going on, but hopefully

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Speaker 1: more investors are thinking long term. Hopefully UM. You know,

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Speaker 1: a lot of of the education that we've done has

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Speaker 1: had an impact in terms of having you know, well

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Speaker 1: diversified portfolio UM both across and within the three major

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Speaker 1: asset classes, and also thinking long term. Because as much

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Speaker 1: as this is a difficult market environment and it's painful

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Speaker 1: to read the headlines and look at the statements, UM,

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Speaker 1: it is still very much a temporary UM market environment,

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Speaker 1: and for many that have ten and twenty year time horizons, UM,

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Speaker 1: they hurt themselves by um becoming panicked or letting emotions

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Speaker 1: take over right now. And uh, Christine, I know you

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Speaker 1: have a global focus, So I'm gonna land the plane

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Speaker 1: next in Beijing, China. The Party Congress is going on

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Speaker 1: this week week. UM. I don't think any major surprises,

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Speaker 1: but it's become pretty clear that their COVID zero policies

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Speaker 1: are not going anywhere anytime soon, at least won't be

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Speaker 1: relaxed anytime soon. How are you thinking about China and

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Speaker 1: its place in global markets these days? Um? On the

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Speaker 1: one hand, uh, COVID zero is sort of restraining growth

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Speaker 1: there and possibly uh still snarling supply chains to some

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Speaker 1: to three. On the other hand, Uh, you know that's

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Speaker 1: at least one source of the world where it's not

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Speaker 1: necessarily an inflationary situation. I mean, maybe it is with

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Speaker 1: the supply chains. But help us sort out how to

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Speaker 1: think about China where it goes from here and sort

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Speaker 1: of what the dynamics with the rest of the global

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Speaker 1: markets will be. Well, actually not differently than what we

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Speaker 1: saw on the global financial crisis. China is in a

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Speaker 1: very different place than Western developed economies UM, which makes

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Speaker 1: a wonderful case for diversification of portfolios right UM. What

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Speaker 1: we're seeing in China is a central bank that has

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Speaker 1: actually eased monetary policy this year as opposed to tightening dramatically. UM.

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Speaker 1: We're seeing some some fiscal stimulus that is significant. And

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Speaker 1: so China is in a very different place than than

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Speaker 1: Western economies. So yes, UH, COVID lockdowns could potentially be

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Speaker 1: a headwind depending upon what what happens in term of

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Speaker 1: future waves of COVID UM. But for the most part,

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Speaker 1: China is ahead in terms of UM when it's likely

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Speaker 1: to begin recovering, and in fact, I think we're seeing

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Speaker 1: signs of recovery now UM. And that's why if you

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Speaker 1: look at, for example, the I M f S projections

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Speaker 1: that they put out last week in terms of growth

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Speaker 1: expectations for three UM, for a lot of major economies,

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Speaker 1: the anticipate growth to be lower next year than this year.

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Speaker 1: That's not the case for China. Their expectation is is

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Speaker 1: significantly higher growth next year UM. So and I think

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Speaker 1: that makes a lot of sense just given UM the

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Speaker 1: positives that are going on um in in the Chinese economy.

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Speaker 1: Can you talk more about what your view is on

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Speaker 1: on the possibility of us seeing a global recession. I

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Speaker 1: think you had asked in one of your recent notes

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Speaker 1: if a global recession is coming, Well, it is very,

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Speaker 1: very possible, just given that we have so many central

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Speaker 1: banks raising rates all at the same time. In fact,

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Speaker 1: we heard from the World Bank last month and issuing

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Speaker 1: a very stark warning about how Um, this is the

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Speaker 1: first time in five decades we've seen this level of

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Speaker 1: synchronicity in terms of tightening. And you don't have to

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Speaker 1: play that police song in the background while I talk

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Speaker 1: about this. But um, but you know it is Uh.

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Speaker 1: It does increase the odds of a global recession, so

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Speaker 1: we have to be um vigilant about it. Um. Uh.

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Speaker 1: You know, at this point, I think that there is

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Speaker 1: still the potential for us to avoid that, um, if

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Speaker 1: central banks were to pivot soon. We just don't know

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Speaker 1: if they're going to pivot soon. Um. That is is

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Speaker 1: the big question on everyone's mind right now. But every

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Speaker 1: day that goes by that we continue to be as

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Speaker 1: hawkish as we see the kind of tightening we see.

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Speaker 1: I think it increases the odds of a global recession

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Speaker 1: next year. Well, I applaud your chase taste in music.

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Speaker 1: Now I'm gonna I've got policed in my head. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna have to go go do a deep dive on

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Speaker 1: the Synchronicity album. Later we'll boil it down to was

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Speaker 1: Christina with. Given everything we've talked about, what's what's the

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Speaker 1: Hooper sort of recommended portfolio look like these days for

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Speaker 1: for sort of your average investor with you know, a

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Speaker 1: longer time horizon. Well, it doesn't look that different, and

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Speaker 1: it shouldn't look that different than they prescribed portfolio the

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Speaker 1: Hooper portfolio from two thousand nineteen or two thousand sixteen

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Speaker 1: or quite frankly two thousand ten, you know. And again,

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Speaker 1: of course it depends upon the time horizon for an

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Speaker 1: individual investor. But but you know, a good rule of

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Speaker 1: thumb is, you know, a fifty five thirty fifteen type

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Speaker 1: of portfolio where you have significant exposure to equities and

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Speaker 1: not just within the US, global equities and some dividend

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Speaker 1: paying equities um uh, and a very diversified fixed income

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Speaker 1: portfolio um I. You know, tactically I might over emphasize

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Speaker 1: the investment grade and government, right now and then of

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Speaker 1: course alts UM reads in their infrastructure crypto. That's a

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Speaker 1: great question. Um, you know I I what I encourage

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Speaker 1: is I say, you know, you all have to do

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Speaker 1: your homework on crypto. And I've told my kids this

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Speaker 1: as well as UM. You know, when I talk to

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Speaker 1: investors and know there's a lot of interest in it.

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Speaker 1: There are a lot of differences among the different cryptocurrencies.

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Speaker 1: Some might work for some investors portfolios, but others might

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Speaker 1: do enough research and say this isn't for me. Um,

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Speaker 1: But I think certainly be open to it and and

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Speaker 1: do enough research to know whether or not it fits

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Speaker 1: with your risk reward profile. Do your homework. The you

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Speaker 1: probably love to win homework, didn't I love doing homework? Yeah? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I'm taking French classes now. And at the end when

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Speaker 1: she doesn't sign homework, I'm like, do you have extra

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Speaker 1: stuff we can possibly? Were you a teacher's pad too?

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00:24:07,920 --> 00:24:11,919
Speaker 1: I want to learn? Hello? Well, all right, here's a

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Speaker 1: little bit of a curveball addition to that question, Christina.

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Speaker 1: If I'm theoretically an investor who's sitting all in cash

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Speaker 1: right now, enjoying these juicy buney market yields, that are

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Speaker 1: finally you know something that doesn't round a zero? Does

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Speaker 1: Does that advice still stand? Well, what I would say

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Speaker 1: is you don't want to go all in, you want

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Speaker 1: a dollar cost average back in. But starting now makes

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Speaker 1: a lot of sense. I mean we've already seen a

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Speaker 1: very very significant adjustment and markets, I mean fixed income levels,

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Speaker 1: you know, fixed income yield levels are pretty attractive right now.

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Speaker 1: So that's not to say we aren't going to see

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Speaker 1: more volatility. Um, it's not to say that we might

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Speaker 1: not see a leg down for the stock market, as

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Speaker 1: I said, as rates go up. But we can never,

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Speaker 1: as humans precise sleep pinpoint when to enter the market. Um,

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Speaker 1: that's just very very hard to do. So I think

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Speaker 1: dollar cost averaging in makes a lot of sense in

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Speaker 1: this environment where um, we've certainly seen significant losses this

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Speaker 1: year and and valuations are more attractive. Well, Christina Hooper,

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Speaker 1: Chief Global Markets, try to just at invest go We

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Speaker 1: really appreciate it. If you know, if you have some

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00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:27,040
Speaker 1: homework you can give Vodanna maybe a worksheet. We're signment.

430
00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:29,160
Speaker 1: I don't know a book. Do you want to start

431
00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:32,119
Speaker 1: a book club? I actually much more interested in a

432
00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:34,840
Speaker 1: movie club. I find just too much of a commitment

433
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:37,520
Speaker 1: to read, but I can easily watch a movie and

434
00:25:37,520 --> 00:25:39,200
Speaker 1: then talk to you about I just don't want Mike

435
00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:41,320
Speaker 1: to be part of this club. Ldona will read the

436
00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:42,960
Speaker 1: book and you can watch the movie. I think that

437
00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:47,399
Speaker 1: a hybrid like breakfast, like breakfast at Tiffany's in that

438
00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:55,119
Speaker 1: famous Seinfeld episode. That's great, But we cannot let you

439
00:25:55,240 --> 00:25:59,080
Speaker 1: leave quite just yet, because we have a tradition on

440
00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:01,359
Speaker 1: this show. So I may call it a gimmick. I

441
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:05,719
Speaker 1: prefer tradition where no guest is allowed to leave before

442
00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:10,560
Speaker 1: they share the craziest thing they've seen in markets this week.

443
00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:16,200
Speaker 1: You start us off FELDA, Okay, mine is Halloween fall,

444
00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:21,600
Speaker 1: pumpkin um Thanksgiving is related? I suppose, okay, it is.

445
00:26:21,680 --> 00:26:23,720
Speaker 1: But I wanted to I really wanted to use this

446
00:26:23,760 --> 00:26:25,680
Speaker 1: one just so I can take the opportunity to say

447
00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:28,359
Speaker 1: that all the reporters on the Cross Acid team are

448
00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:31,320
Speaker 1: getting together to carve pumpkins. But I didn't invite I

449
00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:35,160
Speaker 1: didn't invite you, so and I'm not extending the invite.

450
00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:37,960
Speaker 1: That's that's how it tends to go. You're not invited.

451
00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:43,760
Speaker 1: So anyway, so cold so pumpkins, spice foods, cost A

452
00:26:43,840 --> 00:26:47,920
Speaker 1: hundred and sixty more than regular versions of things. Did

453
00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:50,840
Speaker 1: you see this story? This is crazy. It's called they're

454
00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:53,640
Speaker 1: calling it. I saw this on CBS News. They're calling

455
00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:59,360
Speaker 1: it the pumpkin spice tax. So it's in everything, Latte's, croissants, Hummus, which,

456
00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:02,600
Speaker 1: by the way, pump can Pummics that's pumpkin spice. Pumics

457
00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:06,320
Speaker 1: doesn't sung good dog treats, etcetera, etcetera. So basically, just

458
00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:09,119
Speaker 1: if anybody is has you know, if any one of

459
00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:13,200
Speaker 1: these companies has a pumpkin spiced version of a product,

460
00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:15,280
Speaker 1: they can just up charge you for it. And we

461
00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:17,159
Speaker 1: all love pumpkin spice so much we just go and

462
00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:20,679
Speaker 1: pay it. Is are there like pumpkins supply chain issues

463
00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:23,120
Speaker 1: or is it just no? I think it's taking advantage

464
00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:26,320
Speaker 1: of taking advantage. Yeah, I mean a pumpkin pumpkin spice

465
00:27:26,359 --> 00:27:28,880
Speaker 1: latte at Starbucks. I'm pretty sure it's like thirty six

466
00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:32,080
Speaker 1: dollars right now. Yeah, and it tastes a hundred and

467
00:27:32,119 --> 00:27:34,840
Speaker 1: sixty worse than the than the regular one. Yes, I don't.

468
00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:37,320
Speaker 1: I don't get this at all. Oh I like that stuff, buddy,

469
00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:41,040
Speaker 1: I'll go with Yeah, support you hear you give me good.

470
00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:44,280
Speaker 1: I'm bad. Yeah, yeah, I don't know. I'm not a

471
00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:48,479
Speaker 1: big pumpkin guy. I like, this is why a lot invited,

472
00:27:48,600 --> 00:27:51,600
Speaker 1: you're not. I love the carve though, and I'm so

473
00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:56,680
Speaker 1: hurt that I cannot join you carving pump pumpkins. Uh, Christina,

474
00:27:57,240 --> 00:27:59,040
Speaker 1: how about you. What's the craziest thing you've seen? And

475
00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:04,679
Speaker 1: you'll invite me pumpkin carving. I assume I don't carve pumpkins.

476
00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:07,240
Speaker 1: So just so you know, you can talk to my kids.

477
00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:10,679
Speaker 1: They'll tell you I am the worst mother ever. I

478
00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:14,320
Speaker 1: do the bare minimum and that includes never having carved

479
00:28:14,359 --> 00:28:18,200
Speaker 1: pumpkins with them. So my apologies to my kids. I'm

480
00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:20,600
Speaker 1: so sorry. So no pumpkin carving for you. The no

481
00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:23,639
Speaker 1: pumpkin carving. We can watch a movie about pumpkin carving

482
00:28:23,640 --> 00:28:25,400
Speaker 1: if you want to, though, I'm just out of luck.

483
00:28:25,720 --> 00:28:29,120
Speaker 1: Christine is all about the movies, you know. Again, there's

484
00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:32,520
Speaker 1: very little commitment with a movie, you know, very passive.

485
00:28:32,680 --> 00:28:34,800
Speaker 1: You can even do your work while you're watching it.

486
00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:36,879
Speaker 1: You know, I need to make a movie about the

487
00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:39,320
Speaker 1: next for you. That would a Spike Lee movie about

488
00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:41,520
Speaker 1: the next that would actually, I'll give you a great

489
00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:44,000
Speaker 1: Halloween movie that my son and I watched last week

490
00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:46,880
Speaker 1: What We Do in the Shadows, one of the funniest

491
00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:51,360
Speaker 1: movies I've ever seen, vampires having to live in ordinary

492
00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:55,520
Speaker 1: life flatting in New Zealand, not the TV show, TV show.

493
00:28:55,840 --> 00:28:59,120
Speaker 1: This is much funnier than the movie. Okay, so, but onto,

494
00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:00,920
Speaker 1: I was actually very Rarius felt down. I had such

495
00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:04,160
Speaker 1: a light like nice just because I wanted to bring

496
00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:06,960
Speaker 1: up the pumpkin carving. I love it, well, I I

497
00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:10,760
Speaker 1: just I just focused on inflation expectations because it's a

498
00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:14,440
Speaker 1: head scratcher. Longer term inflation expectations over the last few

499
00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:18,280
Speaker 1: months have UM gone down. It's been nice to see

500
00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:22,280
Speaker 1: that movement down. And then UM within the last week

501
00:29:22,400 --> 00:29:26,000
Speaker 1: week and a half, UM, we saw an uptick in

502
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:30,440
Speaker 1: both the Michigan survey of longer term inflation expectations as

503
00:29:30,520 --> 00:29:33,680
Speaker 1: well as the New York FETE. If that trend work continue,

504
00:29:34,160 --> 00:29:38,040
Speaker 1: that would be UM concerning. It is a surprise, just

505
00:29:38,200 --> 00:29:41,440
Speaker 1: given that we're already sighting starting to see the air

506
00:29:41,520 --> 00:29:44,280
Speaker 1: taken out of the sales of the economy. UM, but

507
00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:46,640
Speaker 1: that is not how consumers see it right now. And

508
00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:50,240
Speaker 1: and uh, you know, five years ahead, three years ahead, UM,

509
00:29:50,040 --> 00:29:53,600
Speaker 1: the measure has gone up since since the previous reading.

510
00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:57,760
Speaker 1: Are they those the two best expectation readings? Do you

511
00:29:57,800 --> 00:29:59,080
Speaker 1: think to keep an eye on? You know, I think

512
00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:01,360
Speaker 1: it's sort of I don't if it's surprised people, but

513
00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:04,520
Speaker 1: it's certainly many people noted it. When it was office

514
00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:07,600
Speaker 1: Pal or someone else on the FED really started talking

515
00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:11,959
Speaker 1: about the Michigan survey. Um uh, that that was That

516
00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:15,040
Speaker 1: was actually what tipped him over the edge. That in

517
00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:17,600
Speaker 1: the c p I print. If you remember, back in June,

518
00:30:17,960 --> 00:30:20,960
Speaker 1: they were messaging fifty basis points and then they got

519
00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:24,480
Speaker 1: a hot c p I and a hot inflation expectations

520
00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:27,080
Speaker 1: from Michigan, and within a few days they had the

521
00:30:27,160 --> 00:30:30,120
Speaker 1: f o MC meeting and they decided for seventy bas

522
00:30:30,160 --> 00:30:32,880
Speaker 1: points instead of fifty. So you're absolutely right they pay

523
00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:35,600
Speaker 1: attention to it. I think consumer surveys are far more

524
00:30:35,600 --> 00:30:40,800
Speaker 1: important to them than market based measures of inflation expectations. Yeah. Well,

525
00:30:40,840 --> 00:30:42,920
Speaker 1: as a big ten fan, I think they're giving way

526
00:30:42,960 --> 00:30:45,640
Speaker 1: too much credit to the University of Michigan. That's all

527
00:30:45,680 --> 00:30:47,960
Speaker 1: I'm going to say about that. Tell me what the

528
00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:53,960
Speaker 1: Michigan state inflation anyway, that's that's neither here nor there.

529
00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:57,280
Speaker 1: That's a good market joke. Really, yeah, you're you're actually

530
00:30:57,280 --> 00:30:59,320
Speaker 1: giving me credit for that one. Yeah, we should tweet it.

531
00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:04,800
Speaker 1: You can tell let you tweet that one. Okay, question

532
00:31:04,840 --> 00:31:08,120
Speaker 1: for both of you. How many iPhones do you think

533
00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:12,080
Speaker 1: the two of you have each owned in your lifetimes.

534
00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:16,320
Speaker 1: I've probably had three or four. I go very I've

535
00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:19,840
Speaker 1: had mine still has the little push button. I go

536
00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:23,360
Speaker 1: a very long time before I get serious button. Yes,

537
00:31:24,360 --> 00:31:26,800
Speaker 1: number is that what I phone? Seven or eight or

538
00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:31,040
Speaker 1: something something. Yeah, it's it's doubled. Basically, the numbers have

539
00:31:31,120 --> 00:31:33,160
Speaker 1: doubled since the last time I got one. It's like

540
00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:38,360
Speaker 1: on fourteen. Now. Yeah, how about you, Christie? Kids and family?

541
00:31:38,360 --> 00:31:40,840
Speaker 1: How many? How many do you think you've gone through? Oh?

542
00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:43,240
Speaker 1: In our family, I have three kids and a husband,

543
00:31:43,480 --> 00:31:46,000
Speaker 1: so I mean in the same I'm in the same boat.

544
00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:50,160
Speaker 1: So in total, we've probably owned. Especially my daughter and

545
00:31:50,320 --> 00:31:54,120
Speaker 1: she dropped It's an embarrassing story, but my she was

546
00:31:54,200 --> 00:31:57,400
Speaker 1: making my son take photographs of her, and she was

547
00:31:57,440 --> 00:31:59,920
Speaker 1: telling him to get closer. She was in her swimsuit,

548
00:32:00,520 --> 00:32:02,719
Speaker 1: and he dropped the phone in the pool. So that

549
00:32:02,800 --> 00:32:06,120
Speaker 1: was one right there. Um. And and by the way,

550
00:32:06,240 --> 00:32:08,640
Speaker 1: you have to race to get to that dryer to

551
00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:13,280
Speaker 1: try to dry it. It still doesn't work. Familiar and

552
00:32:13,600 --> 00:32:16,080
Speaker 1: oh god, you know, we tried everything. So I want

553
00:32:16,120 --> 00:32:19,920
Speaker 1: to say like, wow, yeah, yeah, I'm up there. So

554
00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:22,000
Speaker 1: I was gonna get you know, with three kids, probably

555
00:32:22,000 --> 00:32:26,440
Speaker 1: fifteen at least anyway, but no one cares for them.

556
00:32:26,600 --> 00:32:28,160
Speaker 1: If you're paying for it, you care for it a

557
00:32:28,200 --> 00:32:30,080
Speaker 1: lot more than when you're a kid and your parent

558
00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:32,520
Speaker 1: cares for it. I've got mine in like an otter

559
00:32:32,600 --> 00:32:35,680
Speaker 1: box case, like nothing's ever happened to it. They all

560
00:32:35,680 --> 00:32:39,840
Speaker 1: walk around with crack screens. They couldn't care less, you know, yeah, yeah, yeah,

561
00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:45,200
Speaker 1: Well here's a crazy story for you. The iPhone one.

562
00:32:45,440 --> 00:32:49,160
Speaker 1: Did you ever any iPhone ones in your house? But

563
00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:51,719
Speaker 1: I know what you're gonna say. It just auction for

564
00:32:51,760 --> 00:32:54,080
Speaker 1: a lot of money or or something, and it's but

565
00:32:54,120 --> 00:32:57,520
Speaker 1: it was completely wrapped in its package and untouched. All right,

566
00:32:57,880 --> 00:33:00,920
Speaker 1: all right, spoiler a little a little bit of really sorry.

567
00:33:01,080 --> 00:33:04,280
Speaker 1: I apologize that was bad. I'm so sorry you ruined.

568
00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:08,120
Speaker 1: I don't know what came over me. So I think

569
00:33:08,160 --> 00:33:10,840
Speaker 1: we know who's gonna win. The prices precise this week,

570
00:33:10,880 --> 00:33:14,920
Speaker 1: because yes, a buyer pur purchased the first edition of

571
00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:19,320
Speaker 1: the iPhone sold by LCG Auctions. As you're right, it

572
00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:23,920
Speaker 1: was in its case, unopened two thousand and seven iPhone.

573
00:33:24,240 --> 00:33:29,360
Speaker 1: So step up, you're the next contestant on the prices precise. Well,

574
00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:31,680
Speaker 1: don let's start with you, because you clearly haven't read

575
00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:34,000
Speaker 1: the story, like I haven't read the story. Not the

576
00:33:34,040 --> 00:33:41,840
Speaker 1: person is right, we're afraid a little afraid about Barker.

577
00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:44,280
Speaker 1: Is it? Is it even possible that there aren't a

578
00:33:44,280 --> 00:33:47,320
Speaker 1: lot of these phones out there? Well? You got one

579
00:33:47,440 --> 00:33:54,000
Speaker 1: right there. Well, it's it's funny because you trade the man,

580
00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:56,840
Speaker 1: you know, I've traded so many in for the next

581
00:33:56,880 --> 00:34:01,160
Speaker 1: model that who knows. But uh, this was unopened in

582
00:34:01,200 --> 00:34:04,800
Speaker 1: the box, which if you're collector nerd, it's always got

583
00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:07,440
Speaker 1: to be in the box and on open. Who buys

584
00:34:07,480 --> 00:34:09,640
Speaker 1: things and then leaves them in the box unopened? But

585
00:34:09,960 --> 00:34:12,960
Speaker 1: as such as life, someone realized, I guess that this

586
00:34:13,000 --> 00:34:15,120
Speaker 1: thing was going to be worse money someday, and they

587
00:34:15,120 --> 00:34:18,279
Speaker 1: saved it. So what do you think? What do you think?

588
00:34:19,120 --> 00:34:21,160
Speaker 1: Mind you, this is only two thousand and seven, a

589
00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:27,719
Speaker 1: mass produced device. We're not talking about a van. Go here, right, Um,

590
00:34:27,800 --> 00:34:33,120
Speaker 1: I'll go with fifteen thousand dollars fifteen thousand, Christina Hooper,

591
00:34:33,160 --> 00:34:38,600
Speaker 1: what's your prices precise? Yes, so I read the article,

592
00:34:38,680 --> 00:34:40,279
Speaker 1: but I don't remember the number. I want to say

593
00:34:40,280 --> 00:34:41,840
Speaker 1: it was fifty thou but it could have been to

594
00:34:42,040 --> 00:34:47,920
Speaker 1: fifty Yeah tho dollars kind of you kind of right

595
00:34:47,960 --> 00:34:50,560
Speaker 1: in the middle there. We have to do the math there,

596
00:34:50,719 --> 00:34:52,960
Speaker 1: she said it could have been two fifty. I don't

597
00:34:52,960 --> 00:34:54,640
Speaker 1: want to install our guests, but I think you want yet,

598
00:34:54,719 --> 00:34:59,399
Speaker 1: because yeah, you have to go under. It's actually a

599
00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:02,920
Speaker 1: document tree on one of the winningest people on prices

600
00:35:03,040 --> 00:35:06,560
Speaker 1: right on on Netflix, in case anyone's interested. How much

601
00:35:06,640 --> 00:35:09,080
Speaker 1: well on prices, right? You win like fifty bucks a time.

602
00:35:09,360 --> 00:35:12,839
Speaker 1: You know they want all of like probably it's more

603
00:35:12,880 --> 00:35:14,759
Speaker 1: of a social thing, you know. They get to be

604
00:35:14,840 --> 00:35:16,840
Speaker 1: like the tight knit group. They're all standing outside in

605
00:35:16,880 --> 00:35:18,960
Speaker 1: line to get on the show. My sister did run.

606
00:35:19,239 --> 00:35:21,279
Speaker 1: I just remembered my sister was on the show one

607
00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:24,239
Speaker 1: There you Go, not so long ago, like two years ago.

608
00:35:24,360 --> 00:35:26,480
Speaker 1: She won a bunch of stuff. Did she win a

609
00:35:26,520 --> 00:35:30,879
Speaker 1: new car? No? I wish, Oh my god, new car. No,

610
00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:34,920
Speaker 1: it wasn't. She won random things. It must be much

611
00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:38,080
Speaker 1: harder now, what with inflation. You know, prices are changing

612
00:35:38,120 --> 00:35:40,680
Speaker 1: so quickly. Oh, that's a good point. I wonder if

613
00:35:40,680 --> 00:35:43,400
Speaker 1: it's yeah, there's causing volatility and the prices right, probably

614
00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:49,040
Speaker 1: they have inflation adjusted prices right now. That's good. That's

615
00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:51,360
Speaker 1: that's that's kind of the theme of the whole markets

616
00:35:51,400 --> 00:35:56,480
Speaker 1: this year. The prices are not right they so all right, Well, well, Donald,

617
00:35:56,600 --> 00:35:58,279
Speaker 1: we'll get your sister on some time to play the

618
00:35:58,360 --> 00:36:00,480
Speaker 1: prices precise with us. I think I guess she's good

619
00:36:00,520 --> 00:36:02,880
Speaker 1: at it. I don't know. Yeah, yeah, she'd probably be

620
00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:08,319
Speaker 1: better than I am at prices precise right. Well, I

621
00:36:08,360 --> 00:36:11,480
Speaker 1: think that is all our time. Christina Hooper. It's always

622
00:36:11,480 --> 00:36:13,719
Speaker 1: such a treat to catch up with you, and here

623
00:36:13,760 --> 00:36:17,280
Speaker 1: you're thinking, Uh, you explain the dynamics of the market

624
00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:21,880
Speaker 1: so eloquently and clearly, and we really appreciate you spending

625
00:36:21,880 --> 00:36:23,960
Speaker 1: some time with us and doing so. Thank you so

626
00:36:24,040 --> 00:36:34,440
Speaker 1: much for having me. Thank you, what goes up. We'll

627
00:36:34,480 --> 00:36:36,319
Speaker 1: be back next week and so then you can find

628
00:36:36,400 --> 00:36:39,480
Speaker 1: us on the Bloomberg Terminal website and app or wherever

629
00:36:39,520 --> 00:36:42,120
Speaker 1: you get your podcasts. We love it if you took

630
00:36:42,120 --> 00:36:45,040
Speaker 1: the time to rate and review the show on Apple Podcasts,

631
00:36:45,160 --> 00:36:47,600
Speaker 1: so more listeners can find us. And you can find

632
00:36:47,640 --> 00:36:51,160
Speaker 1: us on Twitter, follow me at reag Anonymous, Bill, Donna

633
00:36:51,239 --> 00:36:54,960
Speaker 1: Hirach is at Bildonna Hirach. You can also follow Bloomberg

634
00:36:55,000 --> 00:36:59,719
Speaker 1: Podcasts at Podcasts. What Goes Up is produced by Stacy Wong.

635
00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:09,520
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening, See you next time. Thank thank thank