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Speaker 1: Good morning, guys, Happy fourth of July. Welcome into a

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Speaker 1: new episode of the Daily Juice podcast with me and

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Speaker 1: Matt Paroltz. You guys can follow me across all of

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Speaker 1: my socials at Sports Talk. Matt, did we come back

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Speaker 1: after well a sweep? We wind up going from down

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Speaker 1: a couple of units to up a couple of units

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Speaker 1: thanks to what we did yesterday where we took care

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Speaker 1: of business across the board. We get the soccer play right,

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Speaker 1: we get all three baseball plays right.

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Speaker 2: Yes, that Brewers.

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Speaker 1: Late night game against the Diamondbacks was a little bit

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Speaker 1: of a fortunate break for us, going to extras and

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Speaker 1: getting that on the run line for Milwaukee. But four

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Speaker 1: and oh is four and oh up four units is

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Speaker 1: up four units. And we head to the fourth of July,

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Speaker 1: where normally I'm giving you three bets, I'm gonna give

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Speaker 1: you four bets. It's the fourth of July. Okay, let's

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Speaker 1: have some fireworks, Let's have some fun here. Let's go

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Speaker 1: with four plays, two in soccer and two in Major

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Speaker 1: League Baseball coming up here for today as we get

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Speaker 1: rolling into the round of sixteen with the World Cup,

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Speaker 1: and then we have a couple of baseball plays coming

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Speaker 1: at you here for a Saturday for the MLB folks.

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Speaker 1: Before we give you the plays for today, let's talk

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Speaker 1: a bit about the smart money tool that we've got

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Speaker 1: available for you guys right now. A couple of things

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Speaker 1: take note when it comes to this. So this is

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Speaker 1: a tool that we have cultivated that enables us and

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Speaker 1: you to look at prediction market liquidity. Now this can

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Speaker 1: be a little bit in the weeds, but it is

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Speaker 1: something to pay attention to because liquidity in the priciction

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Speaker 1: markets can show you where the sports books are missed priced.

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Speaker 1: It can also show you where the money is headed

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Speaker 1: in the sports book market because it may hit prediction

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Speaker 1: markets first, so there may be a difference between the

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Speaker 1: price of a periction market market or from a sportsbook market.

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Speaker 1: This tool lets you see that. You can go to

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Speaker 1: betting pros dot com slash smart. That's bettingpros dot com

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Speaker 1: slash smart. There are some difference in some things to

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Speaker 1: pay attention to, because there are times where sportsbooks can

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Speaker 1: be laying off their liability into a prediction market, and

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Speaker 1: thus that changes a little bit where the numbers are.

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Speaker 1: But that only happens in certain markets in certain situations

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Speaker 1: and really, it happens a lot when it comes to

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Speaker 1: playoffs at the end of the season. During the year,

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Speaker 1: like during Major League Baseball, you can really get a

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Speaker 1: great sense of where the sharp money is headed to,

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Speaker 1: where the sharp money is going, and where the prices

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Speaker 1: might be wrong at the sportsbook. Check it out at

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Speaker 1: bettingpros dot com slash smart. That's bettingpros dot com slash smart. Okay,

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Speaker 1: let's start today with France and the team that I

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Speaker 1: have bet to win the World Cup at plus four fifty.

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Speaker 1: The team that has looked just absolutely tremendous and France

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Speaker 1: is scoring at a tremendous clip.

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Speaker 2: They have scored three or more.

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Speaker 1: Goals in eight of their last ten games. Frankly, if

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Speaker 1: you look at the way that Team USA with their

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Speaker 1: wings speed in the first matchup, when the Team USA

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Speaker 1: played Paraguay and won the game four to one, this

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Speaker 1: defense had no answer for it. Paraguay couldn't stop the USA.

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Speaker 1: How are they going to stop France an ambappeg company.

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Speaker 1: I just think when you look at France and their

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Speaker 1: ability to score, they very well could win this game

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Speaker 1: three nothing. The problem I've got with that is if

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Speaker 1: if Paraguay could answer and gets a goal and it's

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Speaker 1: three to one, well, then the under the minus two

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Speaker 1: and a half, which is what the goal line is today,

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Speaker 1: that's a loss and you could potentially have this be

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Speaker 1: you know, if it's a two to one final, well

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Speaker 1: then we go over two and a half, we don't

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Speaker 1: get the team total over for France and it just

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Speaker 1: becomes a problem. So through ninety I think two to one,

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Speaker 1: three to one is a real possibility here for this match.

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Speaker 1: So I think the best play in this game is

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Speaker 1: to go ahead and bet the over. I think France

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Speaker 1: could score three goals themselves, it's very possible. But in

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Speaker 1: case they score two and Paraguay scores one, it's a

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Speaker 1: two to one final and the game goes over. I

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Speaker 1: don't think it's two to nothing, although it's possible. I

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Speaker 1: mean it could be one one after ninety and we

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Speaker 1: lose this bet. That's possible, but I just don't think

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Speaker 1: that Paraguay is going to be able to slow down France.

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Speaker 1: So I think France scores, I think France wins, but

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Speaker 1: I think three to one is a very real final

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Speaker 1: score here. We were on yesterday with one to one

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Speaker 1: for Argentina and Cape Verde I think again, there has

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Speaker 1: been upsets. There has been interesting situations all over the

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Speaker 1: place in this tournament where upstart teams have really rallied.

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Speaker 1: I don't think Paraguay is going to push France. I

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Speaker 1: think they're the best team in this tournament. It's why

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Speaker 1: I bet them to win the World Cup. But I

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Speaker 1: think the play today, the best play today is to

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Speaker 1: go over two and a half goals for France and Paraguay.

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Speaker 1: It is juicy and minus one sixty for one point

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Speaker 1: six units, but I think this is just too much

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Speaker 1: offense for France, and I do think Paraguay is going

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Speaker 1: to get at least one goal today. So I think

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Speaker 1: we go over two and a half of France and

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Speaker 1: Paraguay as the best play for one point six units. Second,

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Speaker 1: bet Canada and Morocco. This game's in Houston, which is

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Speaker 1: a little bit of a bad break for the Canadian folks,

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Speaker 1: but there will be plenty of people from Canada who

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Speaker 1: are going to be in the building today for this match.

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Speaker 1: I'm a little bit torn. I think Canada wins this,

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Speaker 1: but it's an upset, okay, And I think we're going

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Speaker 1: to see some upsets start to come to fruition from Mexico,

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Speaker 1: Canada and the United States, simply because they're playing in

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Speaker 1: their own time zone. They are the ones when it

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Speaker 1: comes to travel and it comes to just being overall exhaustion.

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Speaker 1: I think there could be some extra legs and fresher

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Speaker 1: legs with Canada over Morocco. But Morocco's a really, really

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Speaker 1: good team, and so I'm not going to fade on

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Speaker 1: their favor today for a reason, and so I'm not

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Speaker 1: going to jump in and say, Okay, I want to

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Speaker 1: go with Morocco. But I don't think this is a

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Speaker 1: high scoring game. I think the absolute opposite of what

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Speaker 1: happened in the France and Paraguay game is going to

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Speaker 1: happen here with Canada and Morocco. This could be one nothing,

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Speaker 1: this could be get a goal in sit Canada scores

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Speaker 1: and they sit on it. Morocco scores, and they sit

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Speaker 1: on it, not wanting to really get into an up

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Speaker 1: tempo back and forth the type of match, and not

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Speaker 1: having multiple scoring opportunities and not putting your goaltenders into

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Speaker 1: a tough spot. I think this is a complete opposite

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Speaker 1: game here today. And while I think it would be

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Speaker 1: cool to see Canada win this game, I think the

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Speaker 1: under is a much better play. Traditionally, over the last

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Speaker 1: couple of two years or so, Canada has played a

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Speaker 1: lot of under games. I think Morocco will try to

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Speaker 1: make Canada pay for any mistakes they made.

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Speaker 2: You could look at.

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Speaker 1: The corner kicks for Canada. We bet that a couple

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Speaker 1: of times. This is a lower scoring game, lower pace game.

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Speaker 1: So when I if I'm going to bet the over,

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Speaker 1: then I think betting corners over is the better play.

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Speaker 1: But if I like the under in the game, I

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Speaker 1: don't want to bet corners. I just don't know how

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Speaker 1: much we're going to see from a tech standpoint from Canada.

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Speaker 1: Even though they might be losing and they might have

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Speaker 1: to push, I don't know how many times they really

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Speaker 1: get Morocco into a spot where they have to go

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Speaker 1: out the back of the of the of the goal line.

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Speaker 2: So to me, I don't like the corners market today.

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Speaker 1: It was dead on last time we bet over five

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Speaker 1: and a half, it fell four, So I'm not going

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Speaker 1: to get involved with that today. But instead I'm just

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Speaker 1: going to come in and take the under. Canada and

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Speaker 1: Morocco under two and a half a minus one forty

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Speaker 1: five for one point four five units. The Dally Juice

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Speaker 1: podcast is being brought to you by our friends at

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Speaker 1: hard Rock Bet. Obviously, hard rock is rolling here with

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Speaker 1: the biggest soccer tournament in the world. We're getting down

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Speaker 1: to it. We're going to be down to once this

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Speaker 1: round is over, we'll be down to eight teams left

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Speaker 1: in the World Cup. This is when it gets really,

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Speaker 1: really tight. The national pride for fans and superstars who

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Speaker 1: are chasing immortality all on the line. Every match feels

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Speaker 1: like a final. You haven't tried hard Rock Bet yet.

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Speaker 1: game parlay for the biggest matches of the tournament, or more.

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Speaker 1: Goal with us at hard Rock Bet. We go to

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Speaker 1: Major League Baseball today and let's talk a little bit

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Speaker 1: about the Mets and the Braves. So here's Chris Sale

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Speaker 1: at home. Chris Sale is up against sham and Iya

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Speaker 1: and the Mets. Braves won yesterday five to three. Chris

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Speaker 1: Sale at home this year has a ridiculous one point

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Speaker 1: zero nine ERA.

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Speaker 2: He's four and two.

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Speaker 1: He's given up five earned runs in forty one and

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Speaker 1: a third innings worth of work. And it's the fourth

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Speaker 1: of July. This is a big game, big crowds. This

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Speaker 1: is a lot of excitement in the ballpark for the

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Speaker 1: fourth of July. The Mets on the road are a

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Speaker 1: bad baseball team. They're seventeen and twenty eight on the road.

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Speaker 1: The Braves are six. Are twenty six and sixteen. At home.

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Speaker 1: Sham and I is one in three with a four

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Speaker 1: point seven to one ERA, and on the road he's

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Speaker 1: one in two with a four point one three ERA.

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Speaker 1: He's given up fifteen earned runs in thirty two and

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Speaker 1: two third innings worth of work, and the Mets have

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Speaker 1: lost three of the last four games started by Shaan

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Speaker 1: Manaya two to one, ten to five, and three to

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Speaker 1: one to these Atlanta Braves when they did it in

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Speaker 1: New York. Yes, this is a game that could go

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Speaker 1: under eight. Yes, the Braves are at home.

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Speaker 2: I know. This is a little bit of a dangerous bet.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Normally you like road teams, and normally because you

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Speaker 1: want all nine at bats, and normally you want a

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Speaker 1: game that's going to go over so you get a

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Speaker 1: lot of offense. But because Chris Sale and the way

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Speaker 1: Chris Sale has pitched at home, and because of the

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Speaker 1: Braves and their record at home, I think there's a

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Speaker 1: really good opportunity here to come in and take a

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Speaker 1: shot on the run line. We laid some heavy juice

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Speaker 1: with both soccer plays with one forty five and one sixty,

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Speaker 1: so getting a little bit pricey on the day. So

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Speaker 1: what's a way of coming back and only committing a

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Speaker 1: unit to this game? This would be the Braves now

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Speaker 1: Chris Sale three two four, three two one last three games, Okay,

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Speaker 1: that's not great, seven to two loss. Last time Chris

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Speaker 1: Sale won a game on the run line was back

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Speaker 1: on the twenty eighth of May. That's not great, Okay,

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Speaker 1: ten to two the win here for the Red Sox

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Speaker 1: for Chris Sale, but given it's Manaiah, given its sale,

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Speaker 1: given the fourth of July, given at home, Let's get

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Speaker 1: the Braves. After winning five to three yesterday, Let's just

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Speaker 1: do it again with a five to three win to

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Speaker 1: lay the one and a half runs on the run

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Speaker 1: line and take the plus one twenty eight shot with

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Speaker 1: the Atlanta Braves. For one unit. You can bet Atlanta

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Speaker 1: just to win if you want. I do think they win,

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Speaker 1: but that's a pretty pricey bet. In like I mentioned,

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Speaker 1: already laid some pretty heavy juice with France and Paraguay,

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Speaker 1: in Canada and Morocco. Finally, Baseball Pirates and the Gnats.

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Speaker 1: Zach little littel on the mound here for the Nats,

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Speaker 1: here are the final scores for him in the month

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Speaker 1: of June six to four, fourteen to nine, six to two,

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Speaker 1: ten to two, and six to one. The Nats are

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Speaker 1: one of the best over teams in Major League Baseball.

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Speaker 1: Braxton Ascroft for the Pirates goes on the other side,

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Speaker 1: eleven to seven, eleven to one, twelve, four, eight, three, six, three, nine,

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Speaker 1: three twelve one six, two eleven nine thirteen three. We

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Speaker 1: bet the over last time he pitched this guy. It's

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Speaker 1: not always on him, although he did give up five

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Speaker 1: earned runs as his last start in six innings to

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Speaker 1: the Phillies. It's the offense scores for him and he

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Speaker 1: gives up a lot of runs. So this is on

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Speaker 1: both sides. This is a run producing offense. When Braxton

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Speaker 1: as crops on the mound, it also gives up a

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Speaker 1: lot of runs. It's nine and a half, it's at

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Speaker 1: ten at certain books. I'm going to pay the juice here.

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Speaker 1: Hard Rock Bets got at minus one twenty over nine

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Speaker 1: and a half. I think we see offense. I think

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Speaker 1: we score. I think we're going over nine and a

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Speaker 1: half Pirates in the Nats and minus one twenty for

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Speaker 1: one point two units. So on the fourth of July,

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Speaker 1: France and Paraguay over two and a half goals, Canada

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Speaker 1: and Morocco under two and a half goals, both those

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Speaker 1: games in the first ninety Okay, so not extra time.

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Speaker 1: That's in ninety Braves on the run line against the

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Speaker 1: Mets and the Pirates and the Nats go over nine

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Speaker 1: and a half for minus one twenty for one point

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Speaker 1: two units. It is the fourth of July. Please be safe.

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Speaker 1: I want to see all of your digits, all ten

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Speaker 1: of your fingers. Okay, don't get sent to the er

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Speaker 1: today by doing something stupid. Don't drink and blow off

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Speaker 1: fireworks okay, don't drink and drive boats. Okay, be safe,

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Speaker 1: be smart. I want to see all you go. You

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Speaker 1: guys back here tomorrow and July the fifth to keep

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Speaker 1: on rolling here with us, So be safe. Don't drive

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Speaker 1: a car, obviously, Lee use ubers.

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Speaker 2: Be smart.

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Speaker 1: It's a great holiday, it's the weekend. On top of that,

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Speaker 1: we don't have work tomorrow, or tomorrow's a Sunday, so

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Speaker 1: you're gonna go off and have a ball tonight and

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Speaker 1: then recover tomorrow. But be safe, be smart, and have

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Speaker 1: a great happy fourth. My name is Matt Parole. You

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Speaker 1: guys can follow me across all my socials at Sports

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Speaker 1: Talking Matt every morning.

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Speaker 2: Wherever you guys get your podcasts. It is the Daily

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Speaker 2: Juice