Speaker 1: Check it on Man Now, Down Now Thursday morning, December.
Speaker 1: It's the Beating the Book podcast Gil Alexander. This episode
Speaker 1: sponsored by the Power Rank eighteen Bowls Season Report that's
Speaker 1: the work of Ed Fang, Ed who's been a guest
Speaker 1: on this podcast many many times. He's a Stanford pH
Speaker 1: d and regular guest on the Megapod. The pdf document
Speaker 1: has all his best predictions for spreads and totals, right
Speaker 1: ups on each game, that covers situations and complete bowl
Speaker 1: pool advice like that as well. To check it out,
Speaker 1: go to the Power Rank dot Net. It's a u
Speaker 1: r L that will take you to a page where
Speaker 1: you can learn more about the Power Rank eighteen Bowl
Speaker 1: Season Report, again brought to you by Ed Fang. I
Speaker 1: highly recommend it again at the Power Rank dot Net.
Speaker 1: Week number fifteen in the National Football League and as
Speaker 1: Marco will tell you, that means it's our second to
Speaker 1: last week of the regular season because we do not
Speaker 1: do a week seventeen, and if I try, Marco will
Speaker 1: tell me we're not doing it. So it is week fifteen.
Speaker 1: We're excited about it. As the NFL season comes into
Speaker 1: the home stretch. That voice you heard on the right
Speaker 1: I believe is that of Marco to Angelo from Wager Talk.
Speaker 1: Good morning, Marco. We did it once and it was
Speaker 1: a total disaster. Total disaster because we don't know, you
Speaker 1: don't know who's playing, you don't know motivations, and it's
Speaker 1: just a whole thing. It's a squirrely week guessing lines.
Speaker 1: I don't do a guessing lines that week either. Thank you,
Speaker 1: Marco as always an ace. You're here too, Yes, yes, sir,
Speaker 1: yes sir, thanks for having me again. And yes it's
Speaker 1: winding down, baby, but the postseasons around the corner, and
Speaker 1: that's the best part of the season. I am very,
Speaker 1: very excited, and we're very excited to have our score
Speaker 1: X winner join us for the wild card Megapod right now,
Speaker 1: Profitable in the lead three weeks to go. Now in
Speaker 1: the regular season, we'll see if he gets to the
Speaker 1: Promised Land or she. I don't know, profitable could be
Speaker 1: she and our first returning guest of the year. We've
Speaker 1: gone this whole way having a different guest every week.
Speaker 1: He is our returning guests from week number one. He's
Speaker 1: been with us a couple of times at least every year.
Speaker 1: Super Contest Champion from the San Souci team, ladies and gentlemen.
Speaker 1: Brady Cannon, Good morning, Brady, Good morning guys. Happy to
Speaker 1: be back. Always a pleasure, and uh, you know, this
Speaker 1: is one of the fun things about football season every year,
Speaker 1: joining you guys, getting around the Megapod roundtable. I appreciate
Speaker 1: the invitation and look forward to the next hour or so.
Speaker 1: We appreciate having you. All right, gentlemen, let's start it
Speaker 1: with Monday Night football. As we always do, we go
Speaker 1: in reverse order. Monday Night, New Orleans at Carolina. New
Speaker 1: Orleans coming off a come from behind win against the
Speaker 1: Bucks that coupled with the Rams loss against the Bears
Speaker 1: on Sunday night, means that the Saints are back in
Speaker 1: the driver's seat for the number one position in the
Speaker 1: NFC playoffs. Right now, they hold the tiebreaker having beaten
Speaker 1: the Rams this year, So the Saints need to just
Speaker 1: win out and they've got home field throughout the NFC
Speaker 1: playoffs there at Carolina. Carolina has lost five games in
Speaker 1: a row. They were six and two, now they're six
Speaker 1: and seven. They lose last week to the Cleveland Browns,
Speaker 1: and it's one of these situations again where you you
Speaker 1: watch the Panthers Christian McCaffrey fills up the box scory
Speaker 1: seemingly each and every week. But Cam Newton in key situations,
Speaker 1: especially in Golden Ghost situations. I don't know if there's
Speaker 1: something wrong with Cam, what's going on, but he has
Speaker 1: no touch whatsoever. He's like whipping the ball into guys
Speaker 1: from the five yard Light's like the worst thing to watch,
Speaker 1: just awful to watch. Caroline and key situations. McCaffrey, as
Speaker 1: I mentioned, sixteen carries for sixty three yards two touchdowns,
Speaker 1: also six receptions for thirty eight yards last week in defeat,
Speaker 1: but the Panthers ten penalties for sixty eight yards five
Speaker 1: straight losses. As I mentioned, that'll increase the heat on
Speaker 1: coach Ron Rivera. Newton overthrew Jerry's right on fourth and
Speaker 1: goal for three with two thirty five left. Uh and
Speaker 1: even though Carolina got the ball back, Newton, who has
Speaker 1: been playing with the sowred right shoulder, didn't have Devin Funches.
Speaker 1: He was picked off by Damarius Randall with fifty seven
Speaker 1: seconds left. And that's all. She wrote. Saints favored by
Speaker 1: six here consensus across the board. Let's call it six
Speaker 1: and a half consensus because it's all over the place, really,
Speaker 1: but six and a half appears to be the consensus
Speaker 1: right now as we do this Thursday morning at Carolina, Brady,
Speaker 1: we start with you your thoughts. I made the line
Speaker 1: Saints minus seven, Gil, and it opened up Saints minus
Speaker 1: six and a half pretty much six everywhere now, as
Speaker 1: you say. And then in the super contest they made
Speaker 1: the number five and a half, which I think is
Speaker 1: kind of interesting, and I think it may close even lower. Uh,
Speaker 1: some recreational play may bring the number back up a bit,
Speaker 1: but uh, you know, primetime game all the early money
Speaker 1: though in every opinion I've heard so far as on
Speaker 1: the Panthers, and when I crunched my numbers, I have
Speaker 1: New Orleans winning this game by five points. So there's
Speaker 1: definitely not enough, not enough of a discrepancy for me
Speaker 1: to want to make a play on this game. And
Speaker 1: I think I'm glad my numbers came out as such,
Speaker 1: because as much as the situation makes sense for Carolina,
Speaker 1: I don't. I can't trust this team anymore. It was
Speaker 1: a while back on that Thursday Day night when they
Speaker 1: were just boat raced by the Stealers. They started out
Speaker 1: with an early score and it looked like we were
Speaker 1: in for a really good game, and then Pittsburgh just
Speaker 1: took off and buried them, and I thought that was
Speaker 1: an anomaly for the Panthers. I thought they were a
Speaker 1: pretty good squad. And then the next week I backed
Speaker 1: them on the road at Detroit. And it still ticks
Speaker 1: me off that you're good, buddy Riverboat Ron decided to
Speaker 1: go for two instead of kick the extra point. Uh
Speaker 1: So Anyway, that was five games ago, and like you say,
Speaker 1: Carolina hasn't won a football game since. Since November four,
Speaker 1: they haven't won a game, and before that they lost
Speaker 1: two out of three. So I told myself a few
Speaker 1: weeks ago that this is a bad football team. I mean,
Speaker 1: they look sexy. McCaffrey is great to watch, but I
Speaker 1: think they're a little bit in disarray right now, and
Speaker 1: I'm gonna pass on this game. I know the Saints
Speaker 1: machine has so showed some vulnerability, uh in the last
Speaker 1: couple of weeks, but I just can't back the Panthers,
Speaker 1: So I'm staying away from this one. Gil. I'm with
Speaker 1: you Brady on on Guessing lines on Monday on Visa
Speaker 1: and on the podcast here Beating the Book. I actually
Speaker 1: guess New Orleans minus four and a half, and so
Speaker 1: you would think it would trigger a bet for me
Speaker 1: on the Panthers once I see the line what the
Speaker 1: actual line is. But I absolutely refused to put money
Speaker 1: behind the Carolina Panthers. I do not trust Cam Newton
Speaker 1: at all. I just think that this team has no
Speaker 1: clue how to win in crunch time. I think you
Speaker 1: said it right there. They find a way to lose.
Speaker 1: They cannot close out a game. That's a good point,
Speaker 1: and yet they are just a half game out of
Speaker 1: the number two wild card position in the NFC. Minnesota's
Speaker 1: at six six and one Carolina along with Philadelphia and
Speaker 1: Washington at six and seven, So they're in it, right.
Speaker 1: They've got a lot to play for. Drew Brees Marco
Speaker 1: coming off a twenty four or thirty one performance at
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay for two hundred one yards, one touchdown, one pick.
Speaker 1: He was sacked one time only two nine total yards
Speaker 1: of offense for the Saints in victory. They were down
Speaker 1: fourteen and three at halftime from behind to win it,
Speaker 1: they repeat as NFC South champions. Their defense limited the
Speaker 1: bucks number one ranked offense to eighty one yards in
Speaker 1: the second half of that game last week, and most
Speaker 1: of that came on a final drive of the game,
Speaker 1: sort of garbage time. So Saints defense not often lauded
Speaker 1: as the strength of this football team and certainly won't
Speaker 1: be considered that now, certainly better this year than they
Speaker 1: have been in recent years. Well, I can't disagree with
Speaker 1: anything you're pointed out there. The thing of this is,
Speaker 1: I looked at the Carolina team in last week. You know,
Speaker 1: I was on him a couple of weeks ago. They
Speaker 1: burned me, and I've been on the sidelines. I've watched
Speaker 1: the games the last couple of weeks. I haven't touched
Speaker 1: them since that stupid Seattle game in which they went
Speaker 1: up and down the field and found a way to lose.
Speaker 1: But when they lost to the Browns last week, I said,
Speaker 1: all right, this is it. This is now totally hit
Speaker 1: the fork out, stick the picket in Carolina. We're gonna
Speaker 1: we're going against them. And then what do I do?
Speaker 1: But I pull my schedule book out, see who they're
Speaker 1: playing next week, and I'm gonna go back to an
Speaker 1: earlier game this year. Guys. I pulled it out, and
Speaker 1: I brought out the al Pacino line from you know, Scarface,
Speaker 1: just what I thought I was out, pull me back
Speaker 1: in and it was the New York Giants and we
Speaker 1: got to win with that game. If you remember, And
Speaker 1: what did I say? It's a team that's in total disarray.
Speaker 1: Their garbage there. You know you can't play them, but
Speaker 1: it's a Monday night game, prime time. They don't want
Speaker 1: to be embarrassed. Uh. The same thing applies here to Carolina.
Speaker 1: This is the last game that you can even consider
Speaker 1: looking at them this season. If they lose this game,
Speaker 1: just go ahead right now and bet the advanced line
Speaker 1: for next week when they go to Atlanta will get
Speaker 1: your When Atlanta comes to town, we'll lose the game
Speaker 1: out right. Uh, this is a team that this is
Speaker 1: it in Riverboat Ron can use his Moniker all he
Speaker 1: mounts and this one because they're the underdog, they're given
Speaker 1: no shot to win this game. Um really no pressure. Yeah,
Speaker 1: there's pressure that they technically can still get to the playoffs.
Speaker 1: They're only half game behind in Minnesota. Looks like they're
Speaker 1: in free fall right now and all of that. But
Speaker 1: what do you have to lose? It's fourth and two,
Speaker 1: go for it. You're down one at the end of
Speaker 1: the game after scoring a touchdown, go ahead, go for
Speaker 1: two again. You know what, I'll take the points here.
Speaker 1: You know that's it. Yeah, live it up, Run, because
Speaker 1: you're gonna be gone at the end of the season
Speaker 1: when you missed the playoffs. I don't know if I
Speaker 1: said this on this show or on Visa on a
Speaker 1: Numbers game, but Riverboat Run. There's been situations this year,
Speaker 1: notably the Detroit game where they lost by point. He went,
Speaker 1: he elected to go for two at the end where
Speaker 1: I almost feel like his nickname made him go for
Speaker 1: it right, Like it's almost a self fulfilling prophecy, like
Speaker 1: he's like, well, I gotta live up to Riverboats. I'm
Speaker 1: gonna go for it here for no reason whatsoever. And
Speaker 1: then I also think that he's gotten to the point
Speaker 1: where he's Dusty Baker. And so what I mean by
Speaker 1: that is Dusty Baker. A lot of us like to
Speaker 1: kill Dusty Baker for always making the wrong moves in
Speaker 1: a baseball game as a manager. But Dusty Baker's got
Speaker 1: to the point now where even when he makes the
Speaker 1: right move sometimes it just doesn't work out for him.
Speaker 1: When he was a manager, that is, And I think
Speaker 1: Ron Riverboat ron Is at that point, so he's like,
Speaker 1: you know, he goes for it when he shouldn't and
Speaker 1: then when he does the right thing, like Graham Gono
Speaker 1: Shanks one, I just think he's that guy right now.
Speaker 1: Ace your thoughts here on this game? Why the way
Speaker 1: it should be noted Saints last week against the Bucks,
Speaker 1: first half they ran the ball nine times for just
Speaker 1: three yards. That was a little off. Now they stuck
Speaker 1: with it, which I like, and they finished with a
Speaker 1: hundred yards on thirty attempts. But that was a really
Speaker 1: slow start after a really bad game a week before
Speaker 1: and Thanksgiving against the Uh not on Thanksgiving, but the Thursday,
Speaker 1: the previous Thursday against the Cowboys. So the Saints had
Speaker 1: about three halves of ridiculous football. We'll see if that
Speaker 1: ever rears its head again. How do you feel here? Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean this is uh one of those games where
Speaker 1: again you know who a better team is and it
Speaker 1: appears they're in opposite trajectories. But like we say, I mean,
Speaker 1: when you when you talk about betting sports, the points
Speaker 1: beer becomes a great equalizer, um. And how much better
Speaker 1: is one team than the other? Um? Now we're looking
Speaker 1: at two teams that really know each other well. And
Speaker 1: the bottom line with the Saints is this as good
Speaker 1: as they have looked, meaning they're ten and one straight
Speaker 1: up and against the spread in their last eleven games. UM.
Speaker 1: They haven't looked all that great in the last three.
Speaker 1: In fact, they got really lucky to cover against Tampa Bay,
Speaker 1: a game they were down fourteen three in UM and
Speaker 1: they've only averaging a little over two hundred sixty yards
Speaker 1: a game over the last three. So this high powered
Speaker 1: offense UM has been slowed down a little bit. Personally,
Speaker 1: because I have a lot invested in the Saints future,
Speaker 1: I would like to see them lose the game in
Speaker 1: the regular season as opposed to going into the playoffs
Speaker 1: on a run. UM. I just think it's good to
Speaker 1: refocus the team. I they it happened at Dallas UM
Speaker 1: and that three point loss, But again I didn't like
Speaker 1: how they responded against Tampa Bay, falling behind like they
Speaker 1: did UM, turning the ball over even lost the turnover battles. Personally,
Speaker 1: I think this may be a little too many points,
Speaker 1: and I agree with Marco. I mean, sure, Carolinas uh
Speaker 1: alive mathematically, UM, but they're kind of in a low
Speaker 1: law situation. I mean, it's prime time game, it's it's
Speaker 1: a divisional rival, and let's not forget more important than
Speaker 1: anything else. These two teams played each other three times
Speaker 1: last year, three times. Saints won all three games against them, um,
Speaker 1: including playoff revenge for Carolina losing last January in New
Speaker 1: Orleans as six and a half point dogs in New
Speaker 1: Orleans lost that game by five. If you remember, uh,
Speaker 1: so again, I mean, there's a lot for Carolina as
Speaker 1: far as liking the situation they're in and not liking
Speaker 1: again the objectory they've been in the last five weeks.
Speaker 1: But with that said, they've just found ways to lose games.
Speaker 1: They haven't been getting blown out. Other than that Pittsburgh
Speaker 1: de buncle. The loss of Detroit was by one. The
Speaker 1: loss of Seattle was by field goal by Campbell one score,
Speaker 1: Cleveland one score. Granted, all those games were very winnable. UM.
Speaker 1: With that said, if you look at the point spreads
Speaker 1: in those games, it's not like they were big favorites
Speaker 1: in any of them. I mean, they were a one
Speaker 1: point favorite in Cleveland, they were a three point favorite
Speaker 1: against Seattle. UM. You know, so again, they have been
Speaker 1: playing close games. I think six and a half I
Speaker 1: like that, and I leaned under also. Um again, the Saints,
Speaker 1: you think high, high profile offense and all that, but
Speaker 1: they have not been an over machine. They're they're five
Speaker 1: and eight to the under. In fact, you know a
Speaker 1: team that averages thirty five points a game is cashing
Speaker 1: under tickets because it's total is too high. I mean,
Speaker 1: look over their last four games, you have two totals
Speaker 1: that are fifty five or higher, one that was sixty one.
Speaker 1: It's pretty hard to hit these numbers. Man. With one
Speaker 1: thing about the NFL betting markets, it's extremely efficient, and
Speaker 1: we saw a lot of high scoring games early. Well
Speaker 1: guess what now we're seeing a lot of high totals
Speaker 1: late and not too short, These games are gonna keep
Speaker 1: flying over. So again I like the points with Carolina
Speaker 1: and I like the under as well too. So that's
Speaker 1: where my mind is right now, taking the points of
Speaker 1: Carolina six and a half. Taking the under in this one.
Speaker 1: Should be noted that really weird scheduling anomaly. The Panthers
Speaker 1: and Saints have not played yet this year division opponents,
Speaker 1: so they've got two games against each other here last
Speaker 1: three weeks. So it's home for Carolina at New Orleans,
Speaker 1: then a game at home against Atlanta followed by at
Speaker 1: New Orleans. So best case scenario for Carolina here in
Speaker 1: their pursuit of the number two wild card position, which
Speaker 1: again they're only a half game out of right now,
Speaker 1: is that they figure out a way to get the
Speaker 1: win here and then somehow that last game means nothing
Speaker 1: to New Orleans, so they would need a Rams loss
Speaker 1: at some point to for that to be the case.
Speaker 1: And then Carolina, you know, would be a very credible
Speaker 1: thing to say they could win all three of their
Speaker 1: last games, but gotta get past this one first, that's
Speaker 1: for sure, and that's a tall order. Sunday night, it's
Speaker 1: Philadelphia at the Rams. This is now at eleven eleven
Speaker 1: and a half consensus somewhere in that pocket. It's up
Speaker 1: from nine and a half. The reason for that is
Speaker 1: that Carson Wentz underwent a scan on his back on
Speaker 1: Wednesday that was inconclusive and was scheduled to undergo an
Speaker 1: m r I today Thursday to help diagnose an issue
Speaker 1: that has plagued him for several weeks. That according to
Speaker 1: Adam Schefter over at ESPN, either way, it appears that
Speaker 1: Wentz is unlikely to play in this game against the Rams.
Speaker 1: NFL Network first reported that that he was unlikely to play.
Speaker 1: There is a scenario where Carson Wentz doesn't play anymore
Speaker 1: this year at all, especially if the Eagles, and very
Speaker 1: likely the Eagles are eliminated this week. Eagles coach Doug
Speaker 1: Peterson saying that Wentz was experiencing soreness and tightness in
Speaker 1: his back and woulden practice in his stead, will be
Speaker 1: Super Bowl champion Nick Foles. Rams favored by eleven and
Speaker 1: a half. I've got nothing else to add, Marco. Yeah,
Speaker 1: this is that you're paying a price for the Rams,
Speaker 1: who are going to be coming home in a very
Speaker 1: angry mood. And last week the Bears made Jared Goff
Speaker 1: looked like Jared Goff under the direction of Jeff Fisher.
Speaker 1: I mean, he was horrible, horrible, four interceptions. That defense
Speaker 1: just absolutely dominated the game. Uh, doesn't have to worry
Speaker 1: about that this week. Last week, Philadelphia probably the most
Speaker 1: misleading score of the weekend. You know what goes into overtime,
Speaker 1: and everybody that had Philly at plus three and a
Speaker 1: half was screaming, I got ever opted overtime, and you
Speaker 1: know you did. You shouldn't even have been in overtime. Okay,
Speaker 1: come on, when you give up five hundred and seventy
Speaker 1: five yards of offense and the team that had all
Speaker 1: of that offense turned the botrow over three times, you
Speaker 1: know you were lucky, you were even in the zip
Speaker 1: code of that game. So let's forget about all of
Speaker 1: that non it And really, I gotta tell you if
Speaker 1: Dallas could put up those kind of numbers last week
Speaker 1: in what was literally a playoff atmosphere, because if Philadelphia
Speaker 1: would have won that game, Philadelphia was in control of
Speaker 1: their own destiny to make the playoffs. Now you know
Speaker 1: they're in deep, you know what with that loss. Now
Speaker 1: they're going to play an angry Rams team that after
Speaker 1: pounding their heads against that brick wall known as the
Speaker 1: Chicago Bear defense for four quarters last Sunday, They're gonna
Speaker 1: look at this defense and they're gonna think they're running
Speaker 1: through Swiss cheese this week. I don't want to lay
Speaker 1: all those points, but what I will play, and it's
Speaker 1: you know, it's the ultra square play. But man, how
Speaker 1: many times have we sat here on this podcast and
Speaker 1: talk about a prime time game and said, uh, this
Speaker 1: is too square. I can't take the over I'll try
Speaker 1: to sweat through the under. Now. Now, I'm not gonna
Speaker 1: do that. If I get involved in this game, it's
Speaker 1: the over and that's the only way I possibly play this.
Speaker 1: You know the Rams are going to be in an
Speaker 1: angry mood. You know they're gonna want to put up
Speaker 1: points this week. And this is a team prior to
Speaker 1: last week that's put up thirty five or thirty thirty five,
Speaker 1: thirty six, fifty four points in the last uh four games.
Speaker 1: I look for them to come back and score this
Speaker 1: week and then just keep scoring in Philadelphia. They should
Speaker 1: get some points because this is not a stellar Rams defense,
Speaker 1: and find a way to get this thing over. The
Speaker 1: total two fifty two and a half somewhere in that
Speaker 1: pocket on the total right now, which is down from
Speaker 1: an opener of fifty four and a half. And last weekend.
Speaker 1: Let me just give the caveat for Eagles fans and
Speaker 1: Eagles backers. The opening kickoff that the Eagles recovered the
Speaker 1: fumble on just completely a travesty and a miscarriage of
Speaker 1: justice on a football field. Completely get it. The seventy
Speaker 1: five yard or to tight end Dallas Goddard that was
Speaker 1: whistled for a phantom offensive p I was maybe the
Speaker 1: worst thing I've ever seen on a football field. And
Speaker 1: then yes, there were makeup calls on Randy Gregory and
Speaker 1: later in the game on Zeke Elliott. There the officials,
Speaker 1: almost recognizing their error, did everything they could do in
Speaker 1: their power to to allow the Eagles to matriculated back
Speaker 1: and score anyway after the Dallas got her miscarriaged justice.
Speaker 1: But there's nothing that makes up for a seventy five
Speaker 1: yard flag like that that just comes out of nowhere.
Speaker 1: It just so happened. The Eagles were will score. But
Speaker 1: DeMarco's point, all of that said, Eagles were out gamed
Speaker 1: two thirty three to seventy before halftime. That's a first
Speaker 1: half stat But let me give you the full game stats.
Speaker 1: That box score was just ridiculous and it went into
Speaker 1: overtime as we know. But Dak through for four fifty
Speaker 1: five forty two of fifty four for four fifty five
Speaker 1: against the Eagles. Zeke gained a hundred fourteen on the ground,
Speaker 1: twelve catches seventy nine a Marii ten catches for to
Speaker 1: seventeen and three touchdowns. Total yards for the game was
Speaker 1: five seventy six to two, fifty six to twenty two
Speaker 1: through the year one forty two to thirty four on
Speaker 1: the ground, nine d three total plays for the Cowboys,
Speaker 1: forty eight for the Eagles. Cowboys were eight of sixteen
Speaker 1: on third downs, the Eagles were one of nine. But
Speaker 1: it really came down to Dallas miscuse. Dallas was minus
Speaker 1: two in turnovers and they committed eleven penalties for a
Speaker 1: hundred eleven yards. That went a long way towards keeping
Speaker 1: the Eagles in the game time of possession. In that game,
Speaker 1: time possession doesn't always matter, but in this game it
Speaker 1: was interesting. Forty eight Remember it went and overtime and
Speaker 1: Dallas almost used the entire overtime. But eight for the
Speaker 1: Cowboys twenty two thirty two for the Eagles. Your thoughts, Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean, it's a tough to back Eagles in this
Speaker 1: spot after that loss to the Dallas Cowboys because so
Speaker 1: much was on the line. But if there's one thing
Speaker 1: with the Philadelphia Eagles this season that's been pretty easy
Speaker 1: to predict, um, if they run the football, they have success.
Speaker 1: I mean they cannot win or cover games if they
Speaker 1: don't have success running the football. And real quickly, what
Speaker 1: I mean by that is, against Carolina, they ran for
Speaker 1: fifty eight yards, lost the game straight up and against
Speaker 1: the spread. Against Dallas the time ran for only seventy
Speaker 1: one yards, lost the game straight up and against the spread.
Speaker 1: Against New Orleans fifty eight yards, lost the game straight
Speaker 1: up against the spread, and then last week against Dallas
Speaker 1: thirty four yards lost the game against the spread and
Speaker 1: straight up. Over the last seven games, the three games
Speaker 1: they did win Jacksonville Giants, Washington. What all three games
Speaker 1: have in common they rushed for over or more yards
Speaker 1: per game. If they run the football, the Eagles could
Speaker 1: win and you could run on the l a rams.
Speaker 1: That's the bottom line. This is a defense that allows
Speaker 1: five point one yards per rush, so they will have
Speaker 1: some success. And with when it's going down, you know me,
Speaker 1: that's usually the perfect storm for added value. The betting
Speaker 1: market always overreacts to injuries, suspensions, weather, and once it's
Speaker 1: factored into the betting line, it's useless information. And more importantly, again,
Speaker 1: the overreaction adds line value. The only thing I want
Speaker 1: to add with this matchup is the fact we know
Speaker 1: when Philadelphia this has happened before, and when Wentz went down,
Speaker 1: they went on to win a Super Bowl, so the
Speaker 1: reaction may not be as drastic as with other teams,
Speaker 1: meaning the overreaction. With that said, I still think double
Speaker 1: digits you've got to look to Philadelphia or leave the
Speaker 1: game alone. And I get it. You know, we talked
Speaker 1: about this a lot. I hear the conversations in sports
Speaker 1: betting forums everywhere, UM and and on talk shows that
Speaker 1: were they about how double digit favorites are doing in
Speaker 1: the NFL of late. You know, over the last five
Speaker 1: years they've been money makers. You look over a larger
Speaker 1: sample size ten years they have it. What do you
Speaker 1: pay attention recently or the bigger sample size? That's an
Speaker 1: argument who's gonna win? You know? Um Granted, if you've
Speaker 1: bet them lately, you've made money, But if you've done
Speaker 1: it over the last twenty years, you haven't. So what
Speaker 1: do you do going forward? Time will tell. But I
Speaker 1: think game by game you gotta look at it individually.
Speaker 1: And I think that's just way too many points. I
Speaker 1: don't like that. I disagree with Marco on the total
Speaker 1: and the only reason is this, man, you're looking at
Speaker 1: two under teams. I mean that the books have done
Speaker 1: a really good job. They've done a phenomenal job. Obviously
Speaker 1: you're gonna pay a premium for Super Bowl champions, no
Speaker 1: surprise Philadelphias four and nine against the spread, But the
Speaker 1: fact that the Rams are eleven and two straight up
Speaker 1: and only five and six against the spread, you haven't
Speaker 1: made money on them. Books. Have this team figured out
Speaker 1: pretty good. I mean, they've done a good job of
Speaker 1: not letting the Rams hurt them, and here you are
Speaker 1: again forced to lay a big price with them. UM.
Speaker 1: I lean Philly, and again I think the totals a
Speaker 1: little bit too high. These two teams scored seventy eight
Speaker 1: points last time they played. UM. Granted, not the same defense,
Speaker 1: especially on the Eagles side of the ball as last year,
Speaker 1: so I could see why the adjustment. I don't think
Speaker 1: it should be that significant. Last year's total was forty seven.
Speaker 1: We're looking at a touchdown difference this season. I think
Speaker 1: it's a little bit too high. I like the under also,
Speaker 1: but I like the points with the Eagles more. I
Speaker 1: haven't bet the game either way, but if it was
Speaker 1: going on tonight, that's decide. I'd be looking at. The
Speaker 1: best thing going for the Rams here is that this
Speaker 1: is at home and not in cold weather have you
Speaker 1: ever seen a quarterback just go into the tank like
Speaker 1: cold weather is kryptonite for Jared Golf like I've never
Speaker 1: seen it be for any other quarterback in quite the
Speaker 1: same way. Twenty forty four credits to the Bears defense
Speaker 1: as well, but from the outset, Jared Goff just looked
Speaker 1: like he did not want to be there. Four no touchdowns,
Speaker 1: four picks, sack three times. That was a career high
Speaker 1: four picks. His passer rating is that of a hundred
Speaker 1: fifty eight point three is nineteen point one. And if
Speaker 1: Sean McVeigh can remember that Todd Gurley's is running back,
Speaker 1: because that's the other thing, that's the only weakness of
Speaker 1: Sean mcveigh's. Sometimes he just forgets he has Girle. Eleven
Speaker 1: carries for Girley in that game the other night for
Speaker 1: twenty eight yards the magic number for Gurley. Michael Lombardi
Speaker 1: always throws this out on visa. Seventeen carries. You get
Speaker 1: seventeen carries out of Todd Gurley. They never lose, but
Speaker 1: it was a game. You know, people can say, oh,
Speaker 1: they clinched. The NFC West home field, especially this year,
Speaker 1: is everything, especially in the NFC, Like in the NFC playoffs,
Speaker 1: and right now again the Saints hold the tiebreaker, so
Speaker 1: even if the Ms went out, they got to hope
Speaker 1: for a Saint's loss in the NFC NFC Championship. I
Speaker 1: can see the Saints maybe going into l A and
Speaker 1: beating the Rams. I just don't see the Rams going
Speaker 1: into the New Orleans and beating the Saints. I really don't.
Speaker 1: So that game to me, meant everything to the Rams
Speaker 1: the other night, they didn't look like they had any
Speaker 1: interest in being there. I think it might actually be
Speaker 1: a good thing for the Eagles to have Nick Foles
Speaker 1: going in this game instead of Carson wentz Um. I
Speaker 1: think it would have been really hard for Philadelphia to
Speaker 1: get up off the mat and show up for this
Speaker 1: game after the way they lost at Dallas last week,
Speaker 1: and you know, their hopes of winning the division basically done.
Speaker 1: But but Foles kind of opens up a new story
Speaker 1: or an angle. And of course, as you say, Gil,
Speaker 1: this is a guy who led them to their Super
Speaker 1: Bowl victory last year. So I think it's a little
Speaker 1: bit of a spin on the fallen hero theory, the
Speaker 1: team rallying together after their guy has gone down. But
Speaker 1: at the same time, the replacement is a hero that
Speaker 1: took them all the way, So you could almost not
Speaker 1: have a better turn of events if you're an Eagles
Speaker 1: fan for this game, for this game only. I'm not
Speaker 1: sure if that will hold true after this Sunday, but
Speaker 1: in this spot, I think it gives them a reason
Speaker 1: to show up and possibly some inspiration with with Folds
Speaker 1: at the controls, I think it would have been really,
Speaker 1: really easy to fade the Eagles this week off of
Speaker 1: that last game. And maybe this is maybe that's a
Speaker 1: little bit of an overreaction, but I think now you
Speaker 1: have reason not to fade them. And in my opinion,
Speaker 1: the lines too high whence Folds, I I really don't
Speaker 1: think it makes a difference. It's too high. I I
Speaker 1: made it eight and it came out nine and a half.
Speaker 1: Now it's ten and a half or eleven. Um, my
Speaker 1: numbers have the Rams winning this game by half that
Speaker 1: four to six points, depending on how you account for
Speaker 1: the change at quarterback. And I haven't made a play
Speaker 1: on this game yet, but uh, I think there's only
Speaker 1: one way you can look here. And why are the
Speaker 1: Rams favored by by eleven when Dallas was favored by
Speaker 1: three and a half last week, Okay, And in truth,
Speaker 1: they really won that game by three points. You know,
Speaker 1: the deflection turns it into a six point win. And
Speaker 1: you guys make all great points about you know, the
Speaker 1: the discrepancy and yards gained. But you know, if that's
Speaker 1: truly a three point game, why are the Rams favored
Speaker 1: by eleven here? And I think that you can argue
Speaker 1: that Los Angeles has less of a home field advantage
Speaker 1: than Dallas, So Philly or nothing here for me. Uh
Speaker 1: As far as the side, I just think it's too
Speaker 1: many points. And again, I think Folds is actually kind
Speaker 1: of a good thing that gives this team a little
Speaker 1: bit of a lift. Who would otherwise just you know,
Speaker 1: be pretty much riding the season off at this point.
Speaker 1: And and Marco, I think you make a good point
Speaker 1: about the over two. Certainly Philly has no defense and
Speaker 1: the Rams should be able to go up and down
Speaker 1: the field. But with Folds in the lineup, I think
Speaker 1: Philly will show up and put some points on the board.
Speaker 1: Maybe a Mini contest pick on the Eagles, Brady as
Speaker 1: the Mini contest kicks off this for the Super Contest
Speaker 1: last three weeks. Maybe No, No, I'm not I'm not
Speaker 1: that dead set or don't feel that confident in the pick.
Speaker 1: But you know, I would have to take the points
Speaker 1: if I did play the game. As I like to say,
Speaker 1: You're not George Costanza in your way to the ticket window.
Speaker 1: You're not pushing the women and children out of the
Speaker 1: way during a fire. I understand. Well, I mean it's
Speaker 1: a theory that Nick Foles might give this team a
Speaker 1: little bit of a lift. But I don't know if
Speaker 1: you know a whole lot about this Philly team that
Speaker 1: you guys pointed out, they were pretty darn lucky to
Speaker 1: be even closed last week. There's been a number of
Speaker 1: spots where I've looked at them as a good spot
Speaker 1: to back them this season, and they've really failed to
Speaker 1: deliver a number of times. So not high on my
Speaker 1: list to go backing them again. All right, let's go
Speaker 1: to Sunday daytime. Ace, you got DIBs. Yeah, and again,
Speaker 1: I had to lose the last week. And this is
Speaker 1: not by any chance, uh pat on the back or
Speaker 1: or like saying I had a great week. But this
Speaker 1: is just a perfect example of we have a snore group.
Speaker 1: That's there are demographic guys like us, guys that bet
Speaker 1: and The best way I could put it is, this
Speaker 1: is a perfect example of why there's no such thing
Speaker 1: as going on the internet and looking for that one
Speaker 1: lock and having that one game that can't lose and
Speaker 1: searching for that game of the year type nonsense that
Speaker 1: doesn't exist because last week I went nine and one
Speaker 1: on my bets and the one that I lost was
Speaker 1: the one I gave out on this podcast and the best,
Speaker 1: and I give out bigger bets here. Honestly, I bet everything.
Speaker 1: I'll say, Like, my bet spread is the same since
Speaker 1: I'm betting five hundred my best bets, I'll put one
Speaker 1: and a half x. The two X is the most
Speaker 1: I'll go is two X. So if I have a
Speaker 1: five average bet, my best bet will be a thousand.
Speaker 1: That you know it's the most will be um. But
Speaker 1: with that said, can you can you do us a favor?
Speaker 1: Can you go one and nine this week and make
Speaker 1: the one the one that you get? Right? Yeah, exactly right,
Speaker 1: Let's see. No, that's just it would that matter more?
Speaker 1: You know what I mean? Like, that's why gotta be cautious. Man.
Speaker 1: We all want that one game that's not gonna lose,
Speaker 1: But there's just so much randomness in in that sixty
Speaker 1: minute football game. But I'm gonna go ahead and I'm
Speaker 1: gonna give you a game again that I already bet.
Speaker 1: I already put one and a half X, probably gonna
Speaker 1: go to two X by the time the week's over. Um,
Speaker 1: And that's San Francisco over to Seattle Seahawks. Um. I
Speaker 1: took plus six when the line opened, and that's why
Speaker 1: I have won and a half X. And I'm gonna
Speaker 1: go to two X because I think I'm taking plus
Speaker 1: four now. UM, I think there's still value at plus
Speaker 1: four as long as I'm getting more than the field goal.
Speaker 1: I like San Francisco. Listen, Seattle looked great of late,
Speaker 1: but if you really dig in, it's a team that's
Speaker 1: been out gained in five of their last six wins.
Speaker 1: If you look at the game they played against Seattle
Speaker 1: San Francisco just two weeks ago, not even ten days ago. Um,
Speaker 1: you look at that game, San Francisco held the ball
Speaker 1: for five minutes longer, had more first downs through for
Speaker 1: almost four hundred yards compared totally a hundred and sixty
Speaker 1: yards um through the air for Seattle. The problem is turnovers,
Speaker 1: and two of the turn of the three turnovers were fumbles,
Speaker 1: and we know when a fumble, when the ball hits
Speaker 1: the ground, it's random who's gonna pick it up once
Speaker 1: it hits The fact that they dropped they fumbled twice,
Speaker 1: and twice Seattle got it, it's hard to recover from that.
Speaker 1: So they're minus three turnovers in that game, even though
Speaker 1: statistically they played a very good game. Um So, again,
Speaker 1: I think this line now is just it opened too high,
Speaker 1: and I still think it's high. The Seattle team now
Speaker 1: if you're starting to pay that premium that wild card
Speaker 1: must win situation, and um you know, I think Teddy
Speaker 1: Cover said it best when he said teams are in
Speaker 1: must win situations because they have they've been mediocre all season.
Speaker 1: You know, if you've been winning and the Saints aren't
Speaker 1: in must win situations, you know, I mean, Rams aren't
Speaker 1: in must win situations. Granted, if you want home field advantage,
Speaker 1: there's still things to play for, but it is in
Speaker 1: a must win you're in the playoffs. Um So, if
Speaker 1: a teams in a must win that their mediocre of best.
Speaker 1: And again Seattle is coming in having covered all these
Speaker 1: games in a row, but those are games they could
Speaker 1: have lost. Theseily, I mean against Green Bay against Carolina.
Speaker 1: So for me, I think this is an over valued
Speaker 1: Seattle team that's just gotten lucky. They haven't turned the
Speaker 1: ball over. I mean they've had one turnover over the
Speaker 1: last three weeks. Um They've been creating turnovers, and I
Speaker 1: think it's about time San Francisco wins that turnover battle.
Speaker 1: I mean they have not forced the turnover since octobery
Speaker 1: against Arizona. They've gone five straight games without forcing the
Speaker 1: team to turn the ball over. I hope that changes
Speaker 1: someday because I got a lot of money on San Francisco.
Speaker 1: I like him at plus six, I like him at
Speaker 1: plus four. I'll sprinkle them all the way down the
Speaker 1: plus three. So give me San Francisco forty nine. There's
Speaker 1: no team finer this Saturday. Give them to me. That's
Speaker 1: a sprinkle as well. Right there, San Francisco waiting right
Speaker 1: now plus three and a half as we do this
Speaker 1: on Thursday. Warning, by the way, really strange scheduling quirk.
Speaker 1: You have two Saturday games this week in addition to
Speaker 1: the Thursday night game between the Chargers and the Chiefs.
Speaker 1: Houston's at the Jets, Cleveland's at Denver. Those are two
Speaker 1: Saturday games amongst five bowl games in college football, So
Speaker 1: of the remaining games that are on Sunday daytime, they
Speaker 1: left only two games for the afternoon. So there's there's
Speaker 1: eight no nine early games in the NFL on Sunday nine,
Speaker 1: and then two in the afternoon Seattle at San Francisco,
Speaker 1: which is the one oh five Pacific four oh five
Speaker 1: Eastern kickoff, and then what amounts to a de facto
Speaker 1: standalone game with apologies to the Seahawks and the Niners
Speaker 1: unless you have money on them, New England at Pittsburgh.
Speaker 1: This weird, this weird thing, right, Like, why do they
Speaker 1: only have to four oh five you know, four o'clock games?
Speaker 1: That I hate that, especially from a betting standpoint, that sucks,
Speaker 1: which they were more spread out, Brady, your choice of
Speaker 1: Sunday games there or Saturday? Uh yeah, or Saturday this week.
Speaker 1: I'm going to go with a real stinker here today, Gil.
Speaker 1: And by the way, there are some real stinkers I thought.
Speaker 1: I thought last week provided like the most games on
Speaker 1: a Sunday all season that had these crazy exciting finishes
Speaker 1: either in determining an outright winner or involving the point spread,
Speaker 1: and then there was like four games, you know, out
Speaker 1: of what is their sixteen games, whatever, their fourteen games,
Speaker 1: there was like four games all day that were immediately
Speaker 1: like c SPAN two boring, while everything else it seemed,
Speaker 1: was completely pure. You know, today's NFL down to the wire,
Speaker 1: last two minutes and in many cases down to the
Speaker 1: final seconds. And then this week, boy, on paper, there
Speaker 1: are some bad ones. How how dare you? How dare
Speaker 1: you insult our legislative process? It is very exciting, ready
Speaker 1: right right, I'm waiting for that documentary to come out
Speaker 1: on C SPAN. Would be awesome. No, I I'm gonna
Speaker 1: use one of those uh ugly games, and that is
Speaker 1: the Arizona Cardinals visiting the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons are
Speaker 1: a pretty bad team, specifically really bad on defense. They
Speaker 1: rank twenty six in the NFL. Arizona is a really
Speaker 1: bad team specifically on offense, ranking dead last in the NFL.
Speaker 1: But the Cardinals defense is pretty good and they rank
Speaker 1: in the top half of the league on that side
Speaker 1: of the ball. And I don't mind having an underdog
Speaker 1: with a better defense that has a shot to win
Speaker 1: the game out right, And they did just that at
Speaker 1: lambeau Field. Two weeks ago, and the Packers, of course
Speaker 1: just beat the Falcons. So simply by the transitive gentleman,
Speaker 1: the Cardinals beat the Falcons right well, seriously, they do
Speaker 1: get after the they get after the quarterback. They're very
Speaker 1: solid on third down defense, and their defensive passer rating
Speaker 1: is much better than Atlanta's. And when the Ravens beat
Speaker 1: Atlanta two weeks ago, they outyarded the Falcons three hundred
Speaker 1: and sixty six to one and thirty one, just a
Speaker 1: hundred and thirty one yards for this Falcons offense. And
Speaker 1: obviously the Ravens defense is better than the Cardinals. But
Speaker 1: the point is, if a better defense can keep the
Speaker 1: Falcons offense down, Atlanta has nothing left they can't defend
Speaker 1: and if they can't score, their toast. And I also
Speaker 1: think this is a little bit like a college bowl
Speaker 1: game handicap. What what does Atlanta really have left in
Speaker 1: the tank? Okay? And then you have the Arizona Cardinals
Speaker 1: with a first year coach a rookie quarterback. They're trying
Speaker 1: to improve, they're still trying to win games. They they
Speaker 1: they have something to play for and that's winning anything
Speaker 1: the Cardon or the Falcons rather uh, They're a team
Speaker 1: that's a perennial contender, a perennial powerhouse, who is horribly
Speaker 1: disappointed to be where they are at this point in
Speaker 1: the season. And why do they care about this, you know,
Speaker 1: this playing this team that is awful when all they
Speaker 1: have possibly left to make anything positive about this season
Speaker 1: is to beat a couple of division opponents on deck
Speaker 1: in the final two weeks of the season. UH in
Speaker 1: the Panthers and UH, I think it's the Buccaneers that
Speaker 1: they play in the final game. I just think this
Speaker 1: Arizona or the Falcons team is awful. I thought last
Speaker 1: week the Falcons against the Packers was one of the
Speaker 1: worst games on the slate with two teams again that
Speaker 1: have been horribly disappointing, two perennial contenders, UH, that have
Speaker 1: each won four games now the Packers five games after
Speaker 1: beating the Falcons last week. UM, and I just am
Speaker 1: not ready to to back Atlanta. And what's funny is
Speaker 1: when I was getting this ready for this show, I
Speaker 1: saw all of a sudden, the team coming in on
Speaker 1: on the Falcons and now the spreads like up to ten.
Speaker 1: It was the same thing that UH with the game
Speaker 1: against the Ravens. Everybody thought that was the spot for
Speaker 1: the Falcons. What happened, They got blown out. I think
Speaker 1: they've got a chance to to lose this game outright
Speaker 1: as well. I made the number six and a half.
Speaker 1: It opened, I is nine and a half. It came
Speaker 1: down to eight and a half. Now it's back up
Speaker 1: to ten even ten and a half. Um. As ugly
Speaker 1: as this is and as hard as it is to
Speaker 1: back the Cardinals, I don't think Atlantic can lay more
Speaker 1: than a touchdown to anybody. They've won four games a season,
Speaker 1: they've lost four at home. Give me the points and ace,
Speaker 1: go ahead, do the honors. Sprinkle it, baby freckle, oh man,
Speaker 1: Arizona Arizona plus nine and a half. The Falcons are
Speaker 1: that bad man. I wouldn't be surprised if they lost
Speaker 1: the game. Uh. That capsule had everything in it, Brady,
Speaker 1: I appreciate it. It It had C span two and had
Speaker 1: the transitive property of geometry in there. You said the
Speaker 1: word out yarded, which is always a favorite of mine,
Speaker 1: and all about a ship show of a football game.
Speaker 1: So we really appreciate that. Arizona at Atlanta, UH, one
Speaker 1: of these games this week along with say Washington at Jacksonville,
Speaker 1: Oakland at Cincinnati, Detroit at Buffalo. You know these games
Speaker 1: are just awful unless you're betting on them. That's the Uh,
Speaker 1: that's the great Tonic Marco. What you got on Sunday, Well,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna sound like Ace here and say I love
Speaker 1: the Sunday Card. I had four different teams penciled in
Speaker 1: for what I was gonna do on the show. For
Speaker 1: the best bet, and the one that I was not
Speaker 1: gonna use, I'm gonna use because I was, you know,
Speaker 1: saving this for later in the week, Uh, on my
Speaker 1: premium phones, which will probably still be there. Uh, because
Speaker 1: I like the game and it's Christmas time right now.
Speaker 1: There's no team in the NFL that nobody wants any
Speaker 1: part of, more so than my Pittsburgh Steelers. They've lost
Speaker 1: three in a row. In guys, you want to understand
Speaker 1: why I am bald and I have high blood pressure,
Speaker 1: well just look at the steelers last three games. Think
Speaker 1: about this for a second. All three games were decided
Speaker 1: in the final twenty seconds, either by a game winning
Speaker 1: scorer or a game saving turnover. All three games. You
Speaker 1: go back to the Denver game, Ben throws the interception
Speaker 1: to the right at the goal line when they're they're
Speaker 1: going in for the win. Uh, you go to the
Speaker 1: or I should say, for the tie, you go to
Speaker 1: the Charger game comes down to not one, not to,
Speaker 1: but three field goal attempts before the Chargers finally get
Speaker 1: it through the uprights at the end of the game
Speaker 1: on the final play the game. And then last week
Speaker 1: in Oakland, they get down there, Juju almost breaks it
Speaker 1: all the way in for the score for the win,
Speaker 1: but goes out of bounds with five seconds left. No problem,
Speaker 1: let's bring in Boswell kick the field goal, go to
Speaker 1: over time. No, they're playing on a freaking cow pastor
Speaker 1: at the unbelievable you know, and I sent it out,
Speaker 1: you know, the picture of him slipping with his plant
Speaker 1: foot and said the Steelers season slipping away and it us.
Speaker 1: But you know what, they're back home and they're facing
Speaker 1: the New England Patriots, and you know what last week
Speaker 1: and why nobody really ripped him. If if Todmlin would
Speaker 1: have did what Belichick did on the final play of
Speaker 1: the game, we would still be talking about it stopped. Okay,
Speaker 1: Belichick made a colossal air. He doesn't make many. You know,
Speaker 1: you probably can count on one hand, and have fingers
Speaker 1: left over the last five years mistakes he's made. But
Speaker 1: having Gronk on the field for the final play of
Speaker 1: the game was just stupid. He always puts them there
Speaker 1: for the hell mary play. And I agree without a
Speaker 1: hundred percent. He's a receiver that can go up and
Speaker 1: muscle for the rebound. He's got you know, tall wingsprand
Speaker 1: with him knows how to catch the football. Obviously, yes,
Speaker 1: a hundred percent you put him on the field. There
Speaker 1: weren't the thirty yard line. Daniel couldn't throw it into
Speaker 1: the end zone from the thirty yard line in any lifetime. Okay,
Speaker 1: not going to reach the end zone wasn't a hell
Speaker 1: merry situation. And he was a liability on the field.
Speaker 1: And who, by the way, missed the final tackle but Gronk,
Speaker 1: And because he's Belichick. Oh well, okay, it's all right,
Speaker 1: you know, colossal blunder. Let's look at the scheduling. First
Speaker 1: of all, all year long, New England has not been
Speaker 1: the same team on the road this year. They got
Speaker 1: drilled at Jacksonville early in the season. Yeah, that was
Speaker 1: the big revenge game for Jacksonville and everything, and they
Speaker 1: came to play and Blake bortles out a marvelous game.
Speaker 1: Uh so, yeah, Blake bortles through for three seventy seven.
Speaker 1: Where's Blake Bortles now on the bench. They lose the
Speaker 1: next very next week to Detroit. Then you go to
Speaker 1: the Chicago game. They win the Chicago game, but they
Speaker 1: only won that game thanks to the blunders of the Bears.
Speaker 1: The Bears put up thirty one points against them. New
Speaker 1: England had a couple of special team plays. Then they
Speaker 1: played that boring Monday night game. Yeah, they wont to
Speaker 1: cover against Buffalo. Do you remember they brought Derek Anderson.
Speaker 1: I think they pulled him off a garbage truck or
Speaker 1: something and put him in the lineup. And they needed
Speaker 1: a pick six to secure the point spread cover. They
Speaker 1: got Railroad. They got railroaded in Tennessee the Jet game,
Speaker 1: no quarterback. They had to have a pick six late
Speaker 1: in that one to get the cover as well, or
Speaker 1: I think any interception to save it. Uh And then
Speaker 1: we saw what happened last week in Miami. Yet was
Speaker 1: the last play of the game. They shouldn't have lost
Speaker 1: the game, but they weren't covering the game, and every
Speaker 1: time they scored Miami answer, did they give up thirty
Speaker 1: four points to Tannehill. The other unique part about the
Speaker 1: schedule for New England this year, every time they played
Speaker 1: on the road, they played back to back road games.
Speaker 1: They've never had a home in a way back home.
Speaker 1: All of the matchups this year have been in pairs.
Speaker 1: And this is gonna be their fourth road game in
Speaker 1: five weeks. Nobody's talking about that. That's a horrible scheduling spot.
Speaker 1: Talk about revenge games. This is the mother of all
Speaker 1: revenge games for the Steelers because the Steelers lost that
Speaker 1: game last year on the Jesse James controversial call. That
Speaker 1: should have been a to you know the score for
Speaker 1: the Steelers and win the game, but no, New England
Speaker 1: got it. And I think that game cost the Steelers
Speaker 1: twice because I think that's the reason the Steelers lost
Speaker 1: the playoff game to Jacksonville last year. All they were
Speaker 1: talking about and thinking about was playing New England the
Speaker 1: very next week in the revenge Well, they didn't get
Speaker 1: their chaots for revenge last year. They get it now
Speaker 1: and last week in Oakland, horrible scheduling spot for Pittsburgh
Speaker 1: go to Oakland when they had this game on deck
Speaker 1: and after the Sunday night game against the Chargers, I'm
Speaker 1: gonna go with Pittsburgh gear. Everybody is looking at New England.
Speaker 1: I Ben's gonna be able to score. And how about
Speaker 1: how guts he Ben coming back in the game. My
Speaker 1: question is will come back again? Yeah? Tomlin, what are
Speaker 1: you doing? Okay? Yeah? You know anytime you're gonna take
Speaker 1: Tomlin versus Belichick, it's a coaching mismatch. I gotta give
Speaker 1: that part of it up. And I know that Belichick.
Speaker 1: It seems like every year he comes to town in
Speaker 1: December with that stupid freaking hoodie and if you just
Speaker 1: have a green hoodie, because for me, he's the grinch
Speaker 1: that steals my Christmas every freaking December. Well, it's a
Speaker 1: Christmas miracle this year, Steelers win this game. Ben's gonna
Speaker 1: get it out. Juju is gonna go nuts, A. B's
Speaker 1: gonna get his Connor will be back. But hey, again,
Speaker 1: let's look at the system in the offensive line. Steelers
Speaker 1: really didn't have any problems at running back last week,
Speaker 1: and that was the third string quarterback or third string
Speaker 1: running back at the start of the season. I'll go
Speaker 1: ahead and take new An. I'll take my Steelers against
Speaker 1: New England, one team's favorite. I'm sorry. I'm so glad
Speaker 1: you picked this game, and I have so much to
Speaker 1: talk about. I wish I was taking notes because I'll
Speaker 1: inevitably forget something here. One, You're right about Bill Belichick
Speaker 1: against the Dolphins. The Miami miracle, for sure, and even
Speaker 1: more so than that, Tom Brady taking a sack at
Speaker 1: the end of the first half which cost the steel
Speaker 1: which cost the Patriots, uh left them with zero points
Speaker 1: there on that drive. And at the end of the game,
Speaker 1: right before the Miami Miracle, New England decides to kick
Speaker 1: a field goal to go up five and kick off.
Speaker 1: They could have opted to just run the ball and
Speaker 1: try to score touchdown, and even if they fail, they
Speaker 1: pin Miami back at the one yard line. Now, I'm
Speaker 1: not saying that's wrong, but to Marco's point, if all
Speaker 1: of those things happened to I don't know the Cowboys
Speaker 1: under Jason Garrett or the Chargers under Anthony Lynn, we
Speaker 1: murder them, right, Bill Belichick, even the great Bill Belichick,
Speaker 1: deserves some criticism, and that was not his finest hour,
Speaker 1: to say the least, as far as Pittsburgh's concerned. Ben Roethlisberger.
Speaker 1: I completely agree with you. At the end of that
Speaker 1: game was very strange. It was almost like Tomlin decided, well,
Speaker 1: if it gets dire, that's when we'll put in big
Speaker 1: Ben and it's Sir god Dyer and then like, all right,
Speaker 1: I guess he'll play. And then you know, as it proved,
Speaker 1: it was too little, too late because Boswell slipped on
Speaker 1: the on the turf. As you mentioned. The other thing
Speaker 1: I just want to mention is this, and I'm with you, Marco.
Speaker 1: I will be heavy on the Steelers. I was guessing
Speaker 1: lines on Monday morning. There was no line on this
Speaker 1: because we didn't know about Big Ben at that time.
Speaker 1: I thought Pittsburgh would be favored. I really did. I
Speaker 1: was very shocked to see and Vinny told me Vinnie
Speaker 1: Moley Luis said, don't be surprised of New England's favorite.
Speaker 1: New England was favored by one when it came out.
Speaker 1: It is already two and a half. I do not
Speaker 1: agree with this move at all. Like for all the
Speaker 1: reasons you stayed, I will be all about the Steelers.
Speaker 1: I'll be teasing them, I'll be playing them straight, I'll
Speaker 1: be playing them on the money line. I am all
Speaker 1: over the Steelers here as well. Glad you picked that game.
Speaker 1: Um let us do a Thursday night talk here because
Speaker 1: this potentially is a great game between the Chargers and
Speaker 1: the Chiefs. Before we do that, as always, remember that
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Speaker 1: Thank me later. Can't wait to bed on tonight's game
Speaker 1: live pre flop every which way. I'm all about the
Speaker 1: charges here tonight, the three and a half point dogs.
Speaker 1: I do not believe in the Chiefs right now. Without
Speaker 1: Kareem Hunt, they will not have Spencer Wear tonight either.
Speaker 1: Both teams will be down to the third string running backs.
Speaker 1: Williams for the Chiefs, Jackson for the Chargers. We've seen Jackson,
Speaker 1: justin Jackson, He's been good. I just don't believe when
Speaker 1: the line doesn't change from Kareem Hump to Spencer Wear
Speaker 1: let alone to a third string, I don't believe it.
Speaker 1: I believe it in the running game, I believe there's
Speaker 1: not much of a downgrade. But in the passing game,
Speaker 1: you cannot tell me the Chiefs are as good. And
Speaker 1: I've purchased, I've I've loaded up on some Chargers futures
Speaker 1: here for the a f C. I truly believe they
Speaker 1: are the sneaky team. I think they're the most balanced
Speaker 1: team in the a f C. And they're a team
Speaker 1: that has no home really, so I don't care if
Speaker 1: they're on the road now with futures. Keep in mind,
Speaker 1: it's more profitable if you just bet them game by
Speaker 1: game in the playoffs. But I got them at plus
Speaker 1: seven or plus seven ten seven and one. Those are
Speaker 1: long gone for the a f C. Your thoughts on
Speaker 1: this game tonight, Brady will start with you. What are
Speaker 1: you thinking? Yeah, I'm with you, Gil. I have some
Speaker 1: money invested in the Charger's future as well, and I'm
Speaker 1: in that neighborhood of seven or eight to one. I
Speaker 1: got them a while back. Uh. We know the Charges
Speaker 1: have had this game circled for some time now, but
Speaker 1: I think they can use that game against the Steelers
Speaker 1: in Pittsburgh a couple of weeks ago to kind of
Speaker 1: calm their nerves a bit and maybe kind of go
Speaker 1: with a been there, done that, you know, act like
Speaker 1: a champion type mentality and not crumble under the pressure
Speaker 1: that this game would normally present. You know, they went
Speaker 1: into a hostile environment in prime time in Pittsburgh, never panicked,
Speaker 1: won that ball game. I think that really gives them
Speaker 1: a huge boost going into a very similar situation here tonight.
Speaker 1: I really hope they win the game out right. Um,
Speaker 1: I think three and a hook as a play. I
Speaker 1: made the line three. I wouldn't be surprised if it
Speaker 1: closes at three. Go bolts, Go bolts. By the way,
Speaker 1: the Chargers have called up a practice squad running back
Speaker 1: as well, So it looks like Melvin Gordon is out,
Speaker 1: even though they're officially leaving that open. Looks like it's
Speaker 1: gonna happen. It looks like they're being clement weather. When
Speaker 1: you look at the forecast yesterday, not so bad anymore, Mac, Yeah,
Speaker 1: I gotta look at the Chargers as well. Uh, live
Speaker 1: dog here. This is a team it's been you go
Speaker 1: back to the end of last season and what they've
Speaker 1: done this year. Uh, they're, you know, one of the
Speaker 1: winningest teams in the NFL. Kansas City. I will give
Speaker 1: them credit and give Pat Mahomes those two fourth down plays,
Speaker 1: especially uh, the second to last one where he scrambling
Speaker 1: all over the place and yet throws across the field
Speaker 1: across his blody and steel hits the guy I mean
Speaker 1: in stride didn't have to making an adjustment of any kind,
Speaker 1: hits him in stride, he'll for the fourth dound conversion.
Speaker 1: That play was you just this kid just continues to
Speaker 1: amaze me week after week. And that was against what was,
Speaker 1: you know, the number one defense in the NFL. That
Speaker 1: part skill scares me. But I see this as a
Speaker 1: game that's gonna come down to the wire, gonna be
Speaker 1: a three point game. And if I'm thinking it's gonna
Speaker 1: be a three point game and there's a hook out there,
Speaker 1: there's only one way for me to do it. And
Speaker 1: grabbed that three and a half hooks everywhere. Still yeah,
Speaker 1: real quickly on my best bet for the week, Just
Speaker 1: so I could let the listeners know the way I
Speaker 1: gave it out to my guys. Instead of patting like uh,
Speaker 1: like I said, I do everything from one hundred to
Speaker 1: a thousands, how I raped my my bets. Instead of
Speaker 1: doing this line like a lot a seven fifty or thousand,
Speaker 1: I gave a five hunter for the game five hundred
Speaker 1: first half. That's how I like the limit risk once
Speaker 1: in a while, kind of like going to two hands
Speaker 1: in black jack, especially when you're able to get plus
Speaker 1: three in the first half and plus four were for
Speaker 1: a game right now plus three and a half and
Speaker 1: a lot of spots, but there's plus four is out there,
Speaker 1: but you can still get plus three in the first half,
Speaker 1: only minus one fifteen, even minus one ten in some spots.
Speaker 1: Just throwing that out there for tonight game, like this
Speaker 1: is what makes my job so difficult. You know. It's
Speaker 1: not just looking into accounts seeing what guys that win
Speaker 1: long term are betting and passing that along because these
Speaker 1: guys don't agree a lot of times, and a lot
Speaker 1: of times I don't agree with them. Um. And this
Speaker 1: is a spot where as soon as this line came
Speaker 1: out in the accounts that I give out, the one
Speaker 1: group they've bet under fifty six and a half. Another
Speaker 1: group came in behind them. When it got the fifty five,
Speaker 1: they still bet it under fifty five. Um. Then last night,
Speaker 1: while I was out to dinner, the total of fifty
Speaker 1: two and a half, and I started hearing all these pains.
Speaker 1: I look at my phone and it's two different groups
Speaker 1: now going over fifty two and a half. I wake
Speaker 1: up today it's at fifty four and a half. So
Speaker 1: what's the right side under fifty six or over fifty two?
Speaker 1: Time will tell um. I was looking at the Chargers too.
Speaker 1: You know how I feel about Kansas City. I still
Speaker 1: think they're overvalued. Um again when they've stepped up, they've
Speaker 1: lost against teams you know in New England, the Rams.
Speaker 1: Um is this a step up? I think? So with
Speaker 1: that said, what scares me is that at looking at
Speaker 1: at back end of a book right now, um that
Speaker 1: already has a lot of plays in public plays. It's
Speaker 1: pretty split, man, the the the action split. It's not
Speaker 1: one sided as you may think with Kansas City money. Um.
Speaker 1: But the fact that this line was three minus fifteen
Speaker 1: and now it's three and a half, and it's not
Speaker 1: public money that really is behind it, because I'm telling
Speaker 1: you I'm not seeing one sided public money here anywhere. Um.
Speaker 1: It scares me a little bit because I like the
Speaker 1: Chargers as well. But that three and a half, man,
Speaker 1: and it's not the public that laying that half is
Speaker 1: is what makes me pause a little bit. Yeah, Pinnacle
Speaker 1: Lean also suggesting, yeah, suggesting, hey give us money on
Speaker 1: the Chargers, but not what it used to be, Not
Speaker 1: what it used to be no, no, no, yeah, a
Speaker 1: right before we get to uh no, not before anything.
Speaker 1: Let's do it. Final two questions of the big favorites
Speaker 1: this week, and uh, I'm gonna make it six points
Speaker 1: are higher. Which is the one that you believe is
Speaker 1: the most likely to lose? Outright? Saturday? The Houston Texans
Speaker 1: seven point road favorites, maybe six and a half on
Speaker 1: the road against the Jets. Scintillating football. Uh And then
Speaker 1: on Sunday, whole bunch of them. Chicago six point favorites
Speaker 1: at home against the Green Bay Packers. Baltimore seven and
Speaker 1: a half point favorites at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Speaker 1: Atlanta nine and a half point favorites at home against Arizona.
Speaker 1: Minnesota seven and a half point favorites at home against Miama.
Speaker 1: I can't believe there's some hooks out there in this game.
Speaker 1: I have no idea why Minnesota should be favored by
Speaker 1: more than seven in this ballgame. Jacksonville seven and a
Speaker 1: half point favorites against the Redskins. Kessler Josh Johnson Jaguars,
Speaker 1: Redskins catch the fever? Sorry, got excited? Rams eleven and
Speaker 1: a half point favorites at home against the Eagles on Sunday,
Speaker 1: and then, as we mentioned, New Orleans six and a
Speaker 1: half point favorites on the road at Arolina, most likely
Speaker 1: to lose outright of those big favorites, Brady, I'm gonna
Speaker 1: go with the Ravens. I think Tampa Bay's got a shot.
Speaker 1: I made Yeah, I made this line seven and a
Speaker 1: half and it opened up eight and a half and
Speaker 1: I immediately took it as a play in a contest
Speaker 1: that I'm in. Baltimore comes off of that great game
Speaker 1: with Kansas City. Marco, you talk about Mahomes, I mean,
Speaker 1: my goodness, what a ball game and what a player
Speaker 1: that guy has been. Um. I thought it was one
Speaker 1: of the better, one of the better football games I've
Speaker 1: watched all year. And they come up short. Um, And
Speaker 1: if it wasn't for Mahomes, you know, they probably win
Speaker 1: that game they should have wanted a couple of times.
Speaker 1: The Chiefs are able to escape some fourth down conversions there.
Speaker 1: And what do they have up next is the Los
Speaker 1: Angeles Chargers in Los Angeles on the road. I think
Speaker 1: it's a tough spot for Baltimore. Their top ranked defense
Speaker 1: versus a top rated offense. I normally prefer to play
Speaker 1: the defensive side in a game like that. But again,
Speaker 1: I think the situation uh is not good for Ravens
Speaker 1: and the pressure is all on them. You talk about
Speaker 1: what was the Panthers game being footloose and fancy free.
Speaker 1: I think Campa Bay is carefree to and should play
Speaker 1: a pretty good game. Joe Flacco backup quarterback now fully healthy,
Speaker 1: the hip is fine, and he is your backup quarterback
Speaker 1: for the Baltimore Ravens. Marco, I'm gonna go with one
Speaker 1: and this is gonna be one where I'm gonna put
Speaker 1: a disclaimer to it because they're either gonna win it
Speaker 1: or blowout or they're gonna lose the game out right.
Speaker 1: And that's the Chicago Bears this week. The spot is
Speaker 1: just so horrible. Last week, I'm sitting there, you know,
Speaker 1: just like I did with Caroline and say, okay, this
Speaker 1: is a perfect situation. Now Carolina has done, I'm all
Speaker 1: excited to go against them, and then I see the
Speaker 1: schedule who they're playing well with Chicago. After that performance
Speaker 1: on Sunday night, I said, this is a young team.
Speaker 1: They're they're still learning how to win, and this was
Speaker 1: their statement game. Fat and Sassy comes into play and
Speaker 1: then I look and see who they're playing. Are playing
Speaker 1: Green Bay, They're hated rival. The game that they able
Speaker 1: way the first game of the season by twenty points.
Speaker 1: But still that was such a huge win on Sunday
Speaker 1: Night because, yeah, they had a couple of other statement
Speaker 1: games this year, the division win on Sunday Night against
Speaker 1: Minnesota and so forth. But when they beat the Rams
Speaker 1: in the fashion that they beat the Rams on Sunday
Speaker 1: Night football, they told the world we are a legit
Speaker 1: contender for the Super Bowl. That's when I want to
Speaker 1: go against the team is when they hit that pinnacle mark,
Speaker 1: the high water mark, and this is you know, Aaron Rodgers.
Speaker 1: They're either gonna stuff Aaron Rodgers if they come to play,
Speaker 1: or Aaron Rodgers are gonna pull his magic. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: go ahead and say Chicago as the team that can
Speaker 1: get upset. I think you're right, Mark. I agree there,
Speaker 1: but I'm gonna go listen. Number one, I think there's
Speaker 1: a couple of teams they could lose, so let's throw
Speaker 1: them out there. Carolina could beat the Saints at home
Speaker 1: um Miami against Minnesota because the simple reasoning, fuck that team.
Speaker 1: I hate Minnesota that that that's the bottom line, just
Speaker 1: suck that team. Excellent reason, excellent reason. Thank you. That
Speaker 1: the best handicap I could give for them. That team
Speaker 1: gonna go Eagles, baby. At plus five hundred, I gotta
Speaker 1: go Philly. I don't think they should be a five
Speaker 1: to one on their dog. Granted, you know, they haven't
Speaker 1: been moneymakers on the road of late I get it, um,
Speaker 1: But still, I just think if you look at power
Speaker 1: rating wise strictly power rating wise, Um, I think that
Speaker 1: the Carolina and New Orleans, I think Carolina could upset,
Speaker 1: but I think Philly is the most values getting five
Speaker 1: to one on the Philadelphia team. Man, I you know again,
Speaker 1: Rams haven't lost a single game at home, so you know,
Speaker 1: and Philly is two and four team on the road.
Speaker 1: But just they're they're capable, you know. I mean, if
Speaker 1: they bring an AID game, Philly is capable of beating anybody.
Speaker 1: So I think getting that many at five to one
Speaker 1: to me as it was worth a little gamble. All right,
Speaker 1: let's keep it to ten seconds or less. What game
Speaker 1: do you want? No part of you live in a
Speaker 1: bizarro world, Brady. You have to make a side bet
Speaker 1: on everything but one. What's the past. This one's pretty easy.
Speaker 1: Gil Washington and Jacksonville, you talked about it. I mean,
Speaker 1: I think by the numbers, the Redskins or the side
Speaker 1: you'd have to back. But how can you do that?
Speaker 1: I mean, I can't remember a team that's been more
Speaker 1: injured than this team. This is a really ugly game
Speaker 1: that the Jaguar is favored by seven and a half.
Speaker 1: Come on, I don't want any part of this one.
Speaker 1: Total at thirty six in today's NFL, that's uh. I
Speaker 1: think that's about a twenty seven in dog years and
Speaker 1: what it used to be. That's just so low. Marco
Speaker 1: will game no part of bake it fast. It's better,
Speaker 1: and there's no part of me that will have any
Speaker 1: money in any shape or form on Washington Jacksonville. Direct
Speaker 1: TV allows you a screen with eight games. There are
Speaker 1: nine early games that this has to be the game
Speaker 1: that falls off the screen that they don't include yet.
Speaker 1: Throw the trifact, let's just go quickly. Same thing. I mean,
Speaker 1: the fact that went from six and a half through
Speaker 1: seven now seven and a half. I don't know who
Speaker 1: had fall in love with Jacksonville, but I want nothing
Speaker 1: to do with that game. Yeah, they pitched a shutout.
Speaker 1: They pitched a show it out a couple of weeks ago,
Speaker 1: and what they do. They scored six. Now they're favored
Speaker 1: by seven and a half. Make it for that'd be
Speaker 1: that'd be the game. I'd include. That does it for us, gentlemen.
Speaker 1: Thank you as always, Marco, Ace Staples, pillars of the show.
Speaker 1: Thank you, guys, and Brady Cannon, our only return guests
Speaker 1: of the year thus far, Super Contest Champion. Many Contest begins, Brady,
Speaker 1: Let's do this. Yeah, that's all we've got left, San
Speaker 1: Susy hoping for a dollar consolation prize. Let's do it.
Speaker 1: I'm not on the team, but I'm rooting for myself
Speaker 1: quite frankly, Marco, Marco, Marco, and Ace. I apologize. I
Speaker 1: didn't even give you guys a chance to say anything,
Speaker 1: but thank you guys, both of you seriously, always there
Speaker 1: when you need him. Don't appreciate it, man. Let's do it, everybody,
Speaker 1: good luck on all your picks, and as always, thank
Speaker 1: you so much for listening.