WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2018 NFL MegaPod Week 15 Preview 0:00:03.400 --> 0:00:12.600 Check it on Man Now, Down Now Thursday morning, December. 0:00:13.760 --> 0:00:17.280 It's the Beating the Book podcast Gil Alexander. This episode 0:00:17.360 --> 0:00:21.560 sponsored by the Power Rank eighteen Bowls Season Report that's 0:00:21.600 --> 0:00:23.799 the work of Ed Fang, Ed who's been a guest 0:00:23.800 --> 0:00:26.680 on this podcast many many times. He's a Stanford pH 0:00:26.800 --> 0:00:30.520 d and regular guest on the Megapod. The pdf document 0:00:30.560 --> 0:00:33.239 has all his best predictions for spreads and totals, right 0:00:33.320 --> 0:00:36.479 ups on each game, that covers situations and complete bowl 0:00:36.640 --> 0:00:39.680 pool advice like that as well. To check it out, 0:00:39.840 --> 0:00:42.600 go to the Power Rank dot Net. It's a u 0:00:42.720 --> 0:00:43.959 r L that will take you to a page where 0:00:44.000 --> 0:00:47.200 you can learn more about the Power Rank eighteen Bowl 0:00:47.280 --> 0:00:50.320 Season Report, again brought to you by Ed Fang. I 0:00:50.440 --> 0:00:53.080 highly recommend it again at the Power Rank dot Net. 0:00:53.479 --> 0:00:56.760 Week number fifteen in the National Football League and as 0:00:56.760 --> 0:00:58.680 Marco will tell you, that means it's our second to 0:00:58.720 --> 0:01:00.960 last week of the regular season because we do not 0:01:01.120 --> 0:01:03.880 do a week seventeen, and if I try, Marco will 0:01:03.880 --> 0:01:06.920 tell me we're not doing it. So it is week fifteen. 0:01:06.920 --> 0:01:10.039 We're excited about it. As the NFL season comes into 0:01:10.080 --> 0:01:12.480 the home stretch. That voice you heard on the right 0:01:12.560 --> 0:01:14.759 I believe is that of Marco to Angelo from Wager Talk. 0:01:14.760 --> 0:01:18.240 Good morning, Marco. We did it once and it was 0:01:18.280 --> 0:01:22.200 a total disaster. Total disaster because we don't know, you 0:01:22.240 --> 0:01:25.520 don't know who's playing, you don't know motivations, and it's 0:01:25.560 --> 0:01:28.000 just a whole thing. It's a squirrely week guessing lines. 0:01:28.000 --> 0:01:30.080 I don't do a guessing lines that week either. Thank you, 0:01:30.120 --> 0:01:33.280 Marco as always an ace. You're here too, Yes, yes, sir, 0:01:33.480 --> 0:01:35.800 yes sir, thanks for having me again. And yes it's 0:01:35.840 --> 0:01:38.600 winding down, baby, but the postseasons around the corner, and 0:01:38.640 --> 0:01:40.680 that's the best part of the season. I am very, 0:01:40.800 --> 0:01:43.240 very excited, and we're very excited to have our score 0:01:43.520 --> 0:01:46.679 X winner join us for the wild card Megapod right now, 0:01:46.720 --> 0:01:49.800 Profitable in the lead three weeks to go. Now in 0:01:49.840 --> 0:01:51.320 the regular season, we'll see if he gets to the 0:01:51.360 --> 0:01:53.440 Promised Land or she. I don't know, profitable could be 0:01:53.560 --> 0:01:56.480 she and our first returning guest of the year. We've 0:01:56.480 --> 0:01:59.360 gone this whole way having a different guest every week. 0:01:59.720 --> 0:02:02.160 He is our returning guests from week number one. He's 0:02:02.200 --> 0:02:04.160 been with us a couple of times at least every year. 0:02:05.280 --> 0:02:08.640 Super Contest Champion from the San Souci team, ladies and gentlemen. 0:02:08.720 --> 0:02:11.760 Brady Cannon, Good morning, Brady, Good morning guys. Happy to 0:02:11.760 --> 0:02:14.320 be back. Always a pleasure, and uh, you know, this 0:02:14.400 --> 0:02:17.639 is one of the fun things about football season every year, 0:02:17.720 --> 0:02:21.880 joining you guys, getting around the Megapod roundtable. I appreciate 0:02:21.919 --> 0:02:24.320 the invitation and look forward to the next hour or so. 0:02:24.560 --> 0:02:27.280 We appreciate having you. All right, gentlemen, let's start it 0:02:27.320 --> 0:02:29.720 with Monday Night football. As we always do, we go 0:02:29.880 --> 0:02:34.639 in reverse order. Monday Night, New Orleans at Carolina. New 0:02:34.720 --> 0:02:37.120 Orleans coming off a come from behind win against the 0:02:37.200 --> 0:02:40.400 Bucks that coupled with the Rams loss against the Bears 0:02:40.400 --> 0:02:42.800 on Sunday night, means that the Saints are back in 0:02:42.840 --> 0:02:45.480 the driver's seat for the number one position in the 0:02:45.600 --> 0:02:48.480 NFC playoffs. Right now, they hold the tiebreaker having beaten 0:02:48.480 --> 0:02:50.400 the Rams this year, So the Saints need to just 0:02:50.440 --> 0:02:52.680 win out and they've got home field throughout the NFC 0:02:52.720 --> 0:02:58.160 playoffs there at Carolina. Carolina has lost five games in 0:02:58.200 --> 0:03:01.200 a row. They were six and two, now they're six 0:03:01.240 --> 0:03:04.240 and seven. They lose last week to the Cleveland Browns, 0:03:04.520 --> 0:03:06.600 and it's one of these situations again where you you 0:03:06.639 --> 0:03:10.160 watch the Panthers Christian McCaffrey fills up the box scory 0:03:10.240 --> 0:03:13.680 seemingly each and every week. But Cam Newton in key situations, 0:03:13.760 --> 0:03:15.959 especially in Golden Ghost situations. I don't know if there's 0:03:15.960 --> 0:03:18.600 something wrong with Cam, what's going on, but he has 0:03:18.840 --> 0:03:22.359 no touch whatsoever. He's like whipping the ball into guys 0:03:22.360 --> 0:03:25.280 from the five yard Light's like the worst thing to watch, 0:03:25.600 --> 0:03:28.400 just awful to watch. Caroline and key situations. McCaffrey, as 0:03:28.400 --> 0:03:31.520 I mentioned, sixteen carries for sixty three yards two touchdowns, 0:03:31.520 --> 0:03:34.680 also six receptions for thirty eight yards last week in defeat, 0:03:34.880 --> 0:03:38.800 but the Panthers ten penalties for sixty eight yards five 0:03:38.960 --> 0:03:41.600 straight losses. As I mentioned, that'll increase the heat on 0:03:41.640 --> 0:03:45.320 coach Ron Rivera. Newton overthrew Jerry's right on fourth and 0:03:45.320 --> 0:03:47.720 goal for three with two thirty five left. Uh and 0:03:47.720 --> 0:03:50.800 even though Carolina got the ball back, Newton, who has 0:03:50.800 --> 0:03:54.000 been playing with the sowred right shoulder, didn't have Devin Funches. 0:03:54.080 --> 0:03:56.240 He was picked off by Damarius Randall with fifty seven 0:03:56.320 --> 0:03:59.760 seconds left. And that's all. She wrote. Saints favored by 0:04:00.160 --> 0:04:03.760 six here consensus across the board. Let's call it six 0:04:03.760 --> 0:04:06.240 and a half consensus because it's all over the place, really, 0:04:06.320 --> 0:04:08.040 but six and a half appears to be the consensus 0:04:08.120 --> 0:04:10.920 right now as we do this Thursday morning at Carolina, Brady, 0:04:10.960 --> 0:04:13.680 we start with you your thoughts. I made the line 0:04:13.840 --> 0:04:17.080 Saints minus seven, Gil, and it opened up Saints minus 0:04:17.120 --> 0:04:19.760 six and a half pretty much six everywhere now, as 0:04:19.760 --> 0:04:22.240 you say. And then in the super contest they made 0:04:22.240 --> 0:04:23.880 the number five and a half, which I think is 0:04:23.960 --> 0:04:27.400 kind of interesting, and I think it may close even lower. Uh, 0:04:27.480 --> 0:04:30.680 some recreational play may bring the number back up a bit, 0:04:30.800 --> 0:04:34.200 but uh, you know, primetime game all the early money 0:04:34.240 --> 0:04:36.520 though in every opinion I've heard so far as on 0:04:36.560 --> 0:04:39.440 the Panthers, and when I crunched my numbers, I have 0:04:39.520 --> 0:04:42.839 New Orleans winning this game by five points. So there's 0:04:42.880 --> 0:04:46.040 definitely not enough, not enough of a discrepancy for me 0:04:46.200 --> 0:04:48.560 to want to make a play on this game. And 0:04:48.640 --> 0:04:51.119 I think I'm glad my numbers came out as such, 0:04:51.279 --> 0:04:55.440 because as much as the situation makes sense for Carolina, 0:04:55.760 --> 0:04:58.480 I don't. I can't trust this team anymore. It was 0:04:58.520 --> 0:05:00.720 a while back on that Thursday Day night when they 0:05:00.720 --> 0:05:03.960 were just boat raced by the Stealers. They started out 0:05:03.960 --> 0:05:05.960 with an early score and it looked like we were 0:05:05.960 --> 0:05:08.159 in for a really good game, and then Pittsburgh just 0:05:08.320 --> 0:05:11.120 took off and buried them, and I thought that was 0:05:11.120 --> 0:05:13.359 an anomaly for the Panthers. I thought they were a 0:05:13.360 --> 0:05:16.040 pretty good squad. And then the next week I backed 0:05:16.040 --> 0:05:19.000 them on the road at Detroit. And it still ticks 0:05:19.040 --> 0:05:22.760 me off that you're good, buddy Riverboat Ron decided to 0:05:22.800 --> 0:05:26.680 go for two instead of kick the extra point. Uh 0:05:26.720 --> 0:05:29.520 So Anyway, that was five games ago, and like you say, 0:05:29.720 --> 0:05:33.440 Carolina hasn't won a football game since. Since November four, 0:05:33.920 --> 0:05:36.080 they haven't won a game, and before that they lost 0:05:36.120 --> 0:05:38.600 two out of three. So I told myself a few 0:05:38.640 --> 0:05:41.000 weeks ago that this is a bad football team. I mean, 0:05:41.040 --> 0:05:44.440 they look sexy. McCaffrey is great to watch, but I 0:05:44.480 --> 0:05:47.080 think they're a little bit in disarray right now, and 0:05:47.080 --> 0:05:50.120 I'm gonna pass on this game. I know the Saints 0:05:50.240 --> 0:05:54.240 machine has so showed some vulnerability, uh in the last 0:05:54.279 --> 0:05:57.279 couple of weeks, but I just can't back the Panthers, 0:05:57.560 --> 0:06:00.160 So I'm staying away from this one. Gil. I'm with 0:06:00.160 --> 0:06:03.159 you Brady on on Guessing lines on Monday on Visa 0:06:03.320 --> 0:06:05.880 and on the podcast here Beating the Book. I actually 0:06:05.880 --> 0:06:08.200 guess New Orleans minus four and a half, and so 0:06:08.240 --> 0:06:10.159 you would think it would trigger a bet for me 0:06:10.400 --> 0:06:12.880 on the Panthers once I see the line what the 0:06:12.920 --> 0:06:17.480 actual line is. But I absolutely refused to put money 0:06:17.520 --> 0:06:20.839 behind the Carolina Panthers. I do not trust Cam Newton 0:06:20.920 --> 0:06:24.400 at all. I just think that this team has no 0:06:24.560 --> 0:06:26.680 clue how to win in crunch time. I think you 0:06:26.760 --> 0:06:29.520 said it right there. They find a way to lose. 0:06:29.600 --> 0:06:32.200 They cannot close out a game. That's a good point, 0:06:32.320 --> 0:06:34.839 and yet they are just a half game out of 0:06:34.880 --> 0:06:38.120 the number two wild card position in the NFC. Minnesota's 0:06:38.120 --> 0:06:41.960 at six six and one Carolina along with Philadelphia and 0:06:42.120 --> 0:06:44.920 Washington at six and seven, So they're in it, right. 0:06:44.960 --> 0:06:47.200 They've got a lot to play for. Drew Brees Marco 0:06:47.279 --> 0:06:50.240 coming off a twenty four or thirty one performance at 0:06:50.279 --> 0:06:52.920 Tampa Bay for two hundred one yards, one touchdown, one pick. 0:06:52.960 --> 0:06:56.200 He was sacked one time only two nine total yards 0:06:56.200 --> 0:06:58.680 of offense for the Saints in victory. They were down 0:06:58.720 --> 0:07:00.760 fourteen and three at halftime from behind to win it, 0:07:00.880 --> 0:07:05.240 they repeat as NFC South champions. Their defense limited the 0:07:05.320 --> 0:07:08.919 bucks number one ranked offense to eighty one yards in 0:07:08.960 --> 0:07:11.360 the second half of that game last week, and most 0:07:11.360 --> 0:07:13.320 of that came on a final drive of the game, 0:07:13.400 --> 0:07:17.880 sort of garbage time. So Saints defense not often lauded 0:07:18.280 --> 0:07:21.400 as the strength of this football team and certainly won't 0:07:21.400 --> 0:07:24.640 be considered that now, certainly better this year than they 0:07:24.680 --> 0:07:27.080 have been in recent years. Well, I can't disagree with 0:07:27.160 --> 0:07:30.080 anything you're pointed out there. The thing of this is, 0:07:30.520 --> 0:07:33.560 I looked at the Carolina team in last week. You know, 0:07:33.640 --> 0:07:35.440 I was on him a couple of weeks ago. They 0:07:35.480 --> 0:07:38.680 burned me, and I've been on the sidelines. I've watched 0:07:38.720 --> 0:07:40.840 the games the last couple of weeks. I haven't touched 0:07:40.880 --> 0:07:44.360 them since that stupid Seattle game in which they went 0:07:44.440 --> 0:07:46.680 up and down the field and found a way to lose. 0:07:47.160 --> 0:07:50.760 But when they lost to the Browns last week, I said, 0:07:51.080 --> 0:07:54.080 all right, this is it. This is now totally hit 0:07:54.080 --> 0:07:58.560 the fork out, stick the picket in Carolina. We're gonna 0:07:58.720 --> 0:08:00.720 we're going against them. And then what do I do? 0:08:01.240 --> 0:08:04.040 But I pull my schedule book out, see who they're 0:08:04.040 --> 0:08:08.320 playing next week, and I'm gonna go back to an 0:08:08.360 --> 0:08:11.400 earlier game this year. Guys. I pulled it out, and 0:08:11.440 --> 0:08:15.640 I brought out the al Pacino line from you know, Scarface, 0:08:15.760 --> 0:08:18.840 just what I thought I was out, pull me back 0:08:18.880 --> 0:08:21.720 in and it was the New York Giants and we 0:08:21.840 --> 0:08:24.200 got to win with that game. If you remember, And 0:08:24.400 --> 0:08:27.640 what did I say? It's a team that's in total disarray. 0:08:27.920 --> 0:08:31.800 Their garbage there. You know you can't play them, but 0:08:31.840 --> 0:08:35.319 it's a Monday night game, prime time. They don't want 0:08:35.320 --> 0:08:39.880 to be embarrassed. Uh. The same thing applies here to Carolina. 0:08:40.120 --> 0:08:43.400 This is the last game that you can even consider 0:08:43.480 --> 0:08:45.800 looking at them this season. If they lose this game, 0:08:46.080 --> 0:08:48.480 just go ahead right now and bet the advanced line 0:08:48.520 --> 0:08:51.480 for next week when they go to Atlanta will get 0:08:51.480 --> 0:08:53.640 your When Atlanta comes to town, we'll lose the game 0:08:53.679 --> 0:08:56.400 out right. Uh, this is a team that this is 0:08:56.520 --> 0:08:59.800 it in Riverboat Ron can use his Moniker all he 0:09:00.000 --> 0:09:03.280 mounts and this one because they're the underdog, they're given 0:09:03.280 --> 0:09:07.280 no shot to win this game. Um really no pressure. Yeah, 0:09:07.360 --> 0:09:10.960 there's pressure that they technically can still get to the playoffs. 0:09:10.960 --> 0:09:14.200 They're only half game behind in Minnesota. Looks like they're 0:09:14.240 --> 0:09:17.120 in free fall right now and all of that. But 0:09:17.200 --> 0:09:19.520 what do you have to lose? It's fourth and two, 0:09:20.040 --> 0:09:22.600 go for it. You're down one at the end of 0:09:22.640 --> 0:09:26.040 the game after scoring a touchdown, go ahead, go for 0:09:26.240 --> 0:09:31.040 two again. You know what, I'll take the points here. 0:09:31.480 --> 0:09:35.360 You know that's it. Yeah, live it up, Run, because 0:09:35.400 --> 0:09:37.120 you're gonna be gone at the end of the season 0:09:37.120 --> 0:09:38.800 when you missed the playoffs. I don't know if I 0:09:38.840 --> 0:09:40.719 said this on this show or on Visa on a 0:09:40.800 --> 0:09:43.920 Numbers game, but Riverboat Run. There's been situations this year, 0:09:44.000 --> 0:09:46.719 notably the Detroit game where they lost by point. He went, 0:09:46.760 --> 0:09:48.520 he elected to go for two at the end where 0:09:48.520 --> 0:09:51.760 I almost feel like his nickname made him go for 0:09:51.920 --> 0:09:54.280 it right, Like it's almost a self fulfilling prophecy, like 0:09:54.280 --> 0:09:56.600 he's like, well, I gotta live up to Riverboats. I'm 0:09:56.600 --> 0:09:59.400 gonna go for it here for no reason whatsoever. And 0:09:59.440 --> 0:10:01.760 then I also think that he's gotten to the point 0:10:01.840 --> 0:10:04.240 where he's Dusty Baker. And so what I mean by 0:10:04.240 --> 0:10:06.199 that is Dusty Baker. A lot of us like to 0:10:06.280 --> 0:10:09.160 kill Dusty Baker for always making the wrong moves in 0:10:09.200 --> 0:10:11.360 a baseball game as a manager. But Dusty Baker's got 0:10:11.360 --> 0:10:12.679 to the point now where even when he makes the 0:10:12.760 --> 0:10:15.200 right move sometimes it just doesn't work out for him. 0:10:15.320 --> 0:10:17.040 When he was a manager, that is, And I think 0:10:17.160 --> 0:10:19.440 Ron Riverboat ron Is at that point, so he's like, 0:10:19.800 --> 0:10:21.640 you know, he goes for it when he shouldn't and 0:10:21.679 --> 0:10:24.000 then when he does the right thing, like Graham Gono 0:10:24.160 --> 0:10:26.920 Shanks one, I just think he's that guy right now. 0:10:27.120 --> 0:10:29.120 Ace your thoughts here on this game? Why the way 0:10:29.120 --> 0:10:31.320 it should be noted Saints last week against the Bucks, 0:10:31.440 --> 0:10:34.640 first half they ran the ball nine times for just 0:10:34.800 --> 0:10:37.959 three yards. That was a little off. Now they stuck 0:10:38.000 --> 0:10:39.439 with it, which I like, and they finished with a 0:10:39.480 --> 0:10:41.680 hundred yards on thirty attempts. But that was a really 0:10:41.679 --> 0:10:44.280 slow start after a really bad game a week before 0:10:44.320 --> 0:10:47.360 and Thanksgiving against the Uh not on Thanksgiving, but the Thursday, 0:10:47.440 --> 0:10:50.520 the previous Thursday against the Cowboys. So the Saints had 0:10:50.559 --> 0:10:54.120 about three halves of ridiculous football. We'll see if that 0:10:54.200 --> 0:10:56.680 ever rears its head again. How do you feel here? Yeah, 0:10:56.720 --> 0:10:59.160 I mean this is uh one of those games where 0:10:59.160 --> 0:11:01.200 again you know who a better team is and it 0:11:01.200 --> 0:11:04.600 appears they're in opposite trajectories. But like we say, I mean, 0:11:04.640 --> 0:11:07.040 when you when you talk about betting sports, the points 0:11:07.080 --> 0:11:10.480 beer becomes a great equalizer, um. And how much better 0:11:10.559 --> 0:11:13.280 is one team than the other? Um? Now we're looking 0:11:13.320 --> 0:11:16.560 at two teams that really know each other well. And 0:11:16.640 --> 0:11:19.120 the bottom line with the Saints is this as good 0:11:19.160 --> 0:11:22.120 as they have looked, meaning they're ten and one straight 0:11:22.200 --> 0:11:25.679 up and against the spread in their last eleven games. UM. 0:11:26.120 --> 0:11:28.400 They haven't looked all that great in the last three. 0:11:28.480 --> 0:11:31.560 In fact, they got really lucky to cover against Tampa Bay, 0:11:31.600 --> 0:11:34.960 a game they were down fourteen three in UM and 0:11:35.000 --> 0:11:37.960 they've only averaging a little over two hundred sixty yards 0:11:37.960 --> 0:11:40.760 a game over the last three. So this high powered 0:11:40.800 --> 0:11:45.679 offense UM has been slowed down a little bit. Personally, 0:11:45.720 --> 0:11:49.040 because I have a lot invested in the Saints future, 0:11:49.440 --> 0:11:51.600 I would like to see them lose the game in 0:11:51.640 --> 0:11:55.040 the regular season as opposed to going into the playoffs 0:11:55.040 --> 0:11:58.040 on a run. UM. I just think it's good to 0:11:58.480 --> 0:12:02.400 refocus the team. I they it happened at Dallas UM 0:12:02.440 --> 0:12:05.520 and that three point loss, But again I didn't like 0:12:05.559 --> 0:12:08.680 how they responded against Tampa Bay, falling behind like they 0:12:08.720 --> 0:12:13.160 did UM, turning the ball over even lost the turnover battles. Personally, 0:12:13.160 --> 0:12:15.200 I think this may be a little too many points, 0:12:15.360 --> 0:12:19.160 and I agree with Marco. I mean, sure, Carolinas uh 0:12:19.480 --> 0:12:23.400 alive mathematically, UM, but they're kind of in a low 0:12:23.480 --> 0:12:26.240 law situation. I mean, it's prime time game, it's it's 0:12:26.240 --> 0:12:29.720 a divisional rival, and let's not forget more important than 0:12:29.760 --> 0:12:33.280 anything else. These two teams played each other three times 0:12:33.440 --> 0:12:39.800 last year, three times. Saints won all three games against them, um, 0:12:39.840 --> 0:12:44.640 including playoff revenge for Carolina losing last January in New 0:12:44.760 --> 0:12:47.800 Orleans as six and a half point dogs in New 0:12:47.880 --> 0:12:51.000 Orleans lost that game by five. If you remember, uh, 0:12:51.080 --> 0:12:55.120 so again, I mean, there's a lot for Carolina as 0:12:55.120 --> 0:12:59.199 far as liking the situation they're in and not liking 0:12:59.400 --> 0:13:02.720 again the objectory they've been in the last five weeks. 0:13:03.160 --> 0:13:05.720 But with that said, they've just found ways to lose games. 0:13:05.720 --> 0:13:08.160 They haven't been getting blown out. Other than that Pittsburgh 0:13:08.240 --> 0:13:11.160 de buncle. The loss of Detroit was by one. The 0:13:11.240 --> 0:13:14.600 loss of Seattle was by field goal by Campbell one score, 0:13:14.800 --> 0:13:19.400 Cleveland one score. Granted, all those games were very winnable. UM. 0:13:19.960 --> 0:13:22.040 With that said, if you look at the point spreads 0:13:22.040 --> 0:13:24.680 in those games, it's not like they were big favorites 0:13:24.720 --> 0:13:26.160 in any of them. I mean, they were a one 0:13:26.160 --> 0:13:28.600 point favorite in Cleveland, they were a three point favorite 0:13:28.600 --> 0:13:31.560 against Seattle. UM. You know, so again, they have been 0:13:31.600 --> 0:13:34.000 playing close games. I think six and a half I 0:13:34.120 --> 0:13:38.640 like that, and I leaned under also. Um again, the Saints, 0:13:38.760 --> 0:13:41.680 you think high, high profile offense and all that, but 0:13:41.720 --> 0:13:44.199 they have not been an over machine. They're they're five 0:13:44.240 --> 0:13:46.719 and eight to the under. In fact, you know a 0:13:46.760 --> 0:13:49.880 team that averages thirty five points a game is cashing 0:13:50.120 --> 0:13:52.720 under tickets because it's total is too high. I mean, 0:13:52.760 --> 0:13:55.280 look over their last four games, you have two totals 0:13:55.280 --> 0:13:58.200 that are fifty five or higher, one that was sixty one. 0:13:58.520 --> 0:14:00.719 It's pretty hard to hit these numbers. Man. With one 0:14:00.720 --> 0:14:04.679 thing about the NFL betting markets, it's extremely efficient, and 0:14:04.720 --> 0:14:06.920 we saw a lot of high scoring games early. Well 0:14:06.960 --> 0:14:09.479 guess what now we're seeing a lot of high totals 0:14:09.559 --> 0:14:11.920 late and not too short, These games are gonna keep 0:14:11.920 --> 0:14:15.920 flying over. So again I like the points with Carolina 0:14:16.080 --> 0:14:18.400 and I like the under as well too. So that's 0:14:18.480 --> 0:14:20.680 where my mind is right now, taking the points of 0:14:20.760 --> 0:14:22.760 Carolina six and a half. Taking the under in this one. 0:14:23.120 --> 0:14:27.840 Should be noted that really weird scheduling anomaly. The Panthers 0:14:27.840 --> 0:14:30.560 and Saints have not played yet this year division opponents, 0:14:30.560 --> 0:14:32.800 so they've got two games against each other here last 0:14:32.800 --> 0:14:35.480 three weeks. So it's home for Carolina at New Orleans, 0:14:35.800 --> 0:14:39.120 then a game at home against Atlanta followed by at 0:14:39.160 --> 0:14:42.440 New Orleans. So best case scenario for Carolina here in 0:14:42.480 --> 0:14:45.080 their pursuit of the number two wild card position, which 0:14:45.080 --> 0:14:46.880 again they're only a half game out of right now, 0:14:47.240 --> 0:14:48.880 is that they figure out a way to get the 0:14:48.920 --> 0:14:53.360 win here and then somehow that last game means nothing 0:14:53.440 --> 0:14:56.040 to New Orleans, so they would need a Rams loss 0:14:56.040 --> 0:14:57.960 at some point to for that to be the case. 0:14:58.280 --> 0:15:00.840 And then Carolina, you know, would be a very credible 0:15:00.880 --> 0:15:02.600 thing to say they could win all three of their 0:15:02.680 --> 0:15:05.440 last games, but gotta get past this one first, that's 0:15:05.480 --> 0:15:07.840 for sure, and that's a tall order. Sunday night, it's 0:15:07.840 --> 0:15:12.560 Philadelphia at the Rams. This is now at eleven eleven 0:15:12.600 --> 0:15:15.400 and a half consensus somewhere in that pocket. It's up 0:15:15.400 --> 0:15:17.600 from nine and a half. The reason for that is 0:15:17.640 --> 0:15:20.000 that Carson Wentz underwent a scan on his back on 0:15:20.080 --> 0:15:23.160 Wednesday that was inconclusive and was scheduled to undergo an 0:15:23.280 --> 0:15:26.160 m r I today Thursday to help diagnose an issue 0:15:26.200 --> 0:15:28.760 that has plagued him for several weeks. That according to 0:15:28.760 --> 0:15:31.760 Adam Schefter over at ESPN, either way, it appears that 0:15:31.760 --> 0:15:35.560 Wentz is unlikely to play in this game against the Rams. 0:15:35.760 --> 0:15:38.440 NFL Network first reported that that he was unlikely to play. 0:15:38.480 --> 0:15:40.560 There is a scenario where Carson Wentz doesn't play anymore 0:15:40.560 --> 0:15:43.080 this year at all, especially if the Eagles, and very 0:15:43.160 --> 0:15:47.240 likely the Eagles are eliminated this week. Eagles coach Doug 0:15:47.240 --> 0:15:50.080 Peterson saying that Wentz was experiencing soreness and tightness in 0:15:50.120 --> 0:15:52.680 his back and woulden practice in his stead, will be 0:15:52.880 --> 0:15:56.600 Super Bowl champion Nick Foles. Rams favored by eleven and 0:15:56.600 --> 0:15:59.240 a half. I've got nothing else to add, Marco. Yeah, 0:15:59.280 --> 0:16:01.960 this is that you're paying a price for the Rams, 0:16:02.000 --> 0:16:04.080 who are going to be coming home in a very 0:16:04.160 --> 0:16:08.200 angry mood. And last week the Bears made Jared Goff 0:16:08.320 --> 0:16:11.800 looked like Jared Goff under the direction of Jeff Fisher. 0:16:12.200 --> 0:16:17.840 I mean, he was horrible, horrible, four interceptions. That defense 0:16:17.920 --> 0:16:21.760 just absolutely dominated the game. Uh, doesn't have to worry 0:16:21.800 --> 0:16:26.200 about that this week. Last week, Philadelphia probably the most 0:16:26.320 --> 0:16:31.680 misleading score of the weekend. You know what goes into overtime, 0:16:31.840 --> 0:16:34.520 and everybody that had Philly at plus three and a 0:16:34.560 --> 0:16:38.560 half was screaming, I got ever opted overtime, and you 0:16:38.640 --> 0:16:41.520 know you did. You shouldn't even have been in overtime. Okay, 0:16:41.520 --> 0:16:45.520 come on, when you give up five hundred and seventy 0:16:45.600 --> 0:16:49.040 five yards of offense and the team that had all 0:16:49.080 --> 0:16:53.560 of that offense turned the botrow over three times, you 0:16:53.600 --> 0:16:56.120 know you were lucky, you were even in the zip 0:16:56.160 --> 0:16:59.400 code of that game. So let's forget about all of 0:16:59.400 --> 0:17:02.520 that non it And really, I gotta tell you if 0:17:02.720 --> 0:17:05.480 Dallas could put up those kind of numbers last week 0:17:05.640 --> 0:17:10.600 in what was literally a playoff atmosphere, because if Philadelphia 0:17:10.680 --> 0:17:14.040 would have won that game, Philadelphia was in control of 0:17:14.080 --> 0:17:17.520 their own destiny to make the playoffs. Now you know 0:17:17.840 --> 0:17:21.880 they're in deep, you know what with that loss. Now 0:17:21.920 --> 0:17:24.920 they're going to play an angry Rams team that after 0:17:25.040 --> 0:17:27.600 pounding their heads against that brick wall known as the 0:17:27.640 --> 0:17:31.680 Chicago Bear defense for four quarters last Sunday, They're gonna 0:17:31.680 --> 0:17:34.119 look at this defense and they're gonna think they're running 0:17:34.119 --> 0:17:36.920 through Swiss cheese this week. I don't want to lay 0:17:36.960 --> 0:17:41.080 all those points, but what I will play, and it's 0:17:41.160 --> 0:17:44.080 you know, it's the ultra square play. But man, how 0:17:44.080 --> 0:17:47.199 many times have we sat here on this podcast and 0:17:47.240 --> 0:17:50.280 talk about a prime time game and said, uh, this 0:17:50.440 --> 0:17:52.840 is too square. I can't take the over I'll try 0:17:52.880 --> 0:17:55.680 to sweat through the under. Now. Now, I'm not gonna 0:17:55.760 --> 0:17:58.480 do that. If I get involved in this game, it's 0:17:58.560 --> 0:18:01.480 the over and that's the only way I possibly play this. 0:18:01.640 --> 0:18:03.119 You know the Rams are going to be in an 0:18:03.160 --> 0:18:05.359 angry mood. You know they're gonna want to put up 0:18:05.400 --> 0:18:07.480 points this week. And this is a team prior to 0:18:07.640 --> 0:18:12.440 last week that's put up thirty five or thirty thirty five, 0:18:12.560 --> 0:18:16.160 thirty six, fifty four points in the last uh four games. 0:18:16.359 --> 0:18:18.199 I look for them to come back and score this 0:18:18.280 --> 0:18:22.160 week and then just keep scoring in Philadelphia. They should 0:18:22.240 --> 0:18:25.600 get some points because this is not a stellar Rams defense, 0:18:25.960 --> 0:18:27.919 and find a way to get this thing over. The 0:18:27.920 --> 0:18:30.399 total two fifty two and a half somewhere in that 0:18:30.440 --> 0:18:33.160 pocket on the total right now, which is down from 0:18:33.160 --> 0:18:35.800 an opener of fifty four and a half. And last weekend. 0:18:35.840 --> 0:18:37.840 Let me just give the caveat for Eagles fans and 0:18:37.840 --> 0:18:41.560 Eagles backers. The opening kickoff that the Eagles recovered the 0:18:41.560 --> 0:18:46.280 fumble on just completely a travesty and a miscarriage of 0:18:46.359 --> 0:18:50.200 justice on a football field. Completely get it. The seventy 0:18:50.200 --> 0:18:52.560 five yard or to tight end Dallas Goddard that was 0:18:52.920 --> 0:18:56.560 whistled for a phantom offensive p I was maybe the 0:18:56.600 --> 0:18:59.320 worst thing I've ever seen on a football field. And 0:18:59.320 --> 0:19:03.080 then yes, there were makeup calls on Randy Gregory and 0:19:03.200 --> 0:19:05.520 later in the game on Zeke Elliott. There the officials, 0:19:05.560 --> 0:19:08.679 almost recognizing their error, did everything they could do in 0:19:08.720 --> 0:19:11.480 their power to to allow the Eagles to matriculated back 0:19:11.480 --> 0:19:15.280 and score anyway after the Dallas got her miscarriaged justice. 0:19:15.320 --> 0:19:17.800 But there's nothing that makes up for a seventy five 0:19:17.880 --> 0:19:20.520 yard flag like that that just comes out of nowhere. 0:19:20.520 --> 0:19:22.240 It just so happened. The Eagles were will score. But 0:19:22.240 --> 0:19:25.480 DeMarco's point, all of that said, Eagles were out gamed 0:19:25.480 --> 0:19:29.800 two thirty three to seventy before halftime. That's a first 0:19:29.800 --> 0:19:31.679 half stat But let me give you the full game stats. 0:19:31.680 --> 0:19:34.640 That box score was just ridiculous and it went into 0:19:34.680 --> 0:19:38.480 overtime as we know. But Dak through for four fifty 0:19:38.480 --> 0:19:42.200 five forty two of fifty four for four fifty five 0:19:42.240 --> 0:19:45.439 against the Eagles. Zeke gained a hundred fourteen on the ground, 0:19:45.680 --> 0:19:48.960 twelve catches seventy nine a Marii ten catches for to 0:19:49.160 --> 0:19:52.119 seventeen and three touchdowns. Total yards for the game was 0:19:52.240 --> 0:19:56.439 five seventy six to two, fifty six to twenty two 0:19:56.480 --> 0:19:58.720 through the year one forty two to thirty four on 0:19:58.760 --> 0:20:02.159 the ground, nine d three total plays for the Cowboys, 0:20:02.240 --> 0:20:05.159 forty eight for the Eagles. Cowboys were eight of sixteen 0:20:05.160 --> 0:20:07.600 on third downs, the Eagles were one of nine. But 0:20:07.640 --> 0:20:10.159 it really came down to Dallas miscuse. Dallas was minus 0:20:10.160 --> 0:20:12.800 two in turnovers and they committed eleven penalties for a 0:20:12.840 --> 0:20:15.480 hundred eleven yards. That went a long way towards keeping 0:20:15.480 --> 0:20:17.840 the Eagles in the game time of possession. In that game, 0:20:17.920 --> 0:20:20.159 time possession doesn't always matter, but in this game it 0:20:20.280 --> 0:20:24.119 was interesting. Forty eight Remember it went and overtime and 0:20:24.200 --> 0:20:27.560 Dallas almost used the entire overtime. But eight for the 0:20:27.600 --> 0:20:32.280