WEBVTT - What’s Trump’s Venezuela Endgame? 0:00:00.240 --> 0:00:07.200 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 0:00:08.840 --> 0:00:11.480 Over the last two months, the United States has launched 0:00:11.520 --> 0:00:14.080 a series of strikes off the coast of Venezuela. 0:00:14.160 --> 0:00:17.440 The US military carried out another lethal air striker, another 0:00:17.560 --> 0:00:18.440 US Stride. 0:00:18.160 --> 0:00:20.760 New strike go to suspect the drug boat in the cribbe. 0:00:20.400 --> 0:00:25.000 The massive explosion sending debris raining down in international waters. 0:00:25.040 --> 0:00:29.080 Despite questions about evidence and due process, the administration insists 0:00:29.160 --> 0:00:33.280 lethal strikes like these will continue. The Trump administration says 0:00:33.400 --> 0:00:35.240 it's targeting narco traffickers. 0:00:35.560 --> 0:00:38.479 The President keeps making this claim that every time he 0:00:38.560 --> 0:00:42.040 strikes one of these boats, he prevents about twenty four 0:00:42.120 --> 0:00:44.879 thousand drug related deaths in the United States. 0:00:45.200 --> 0:00:48.000 Nick Wadhams heads up Bloomberg's National Security team. 0:00:48.479 --> 0:00:52.360 That is obviously a highly dubious claim, but he's basically 0:00:52.360 --> 0:00:54.680 making the equation. You know, if you have x tons 0:00:54.720 --> 0:00:58.440 of fentanyl on the boat, and a tiny dose of 0:00:58.480 --> 0:01:01.480 fentanyl can kill a person, that's how many drug related 0:01:01.520 --> 0:01:04.520 deaths are being saved in the US. So they essentially 0:01:04.520 --> 0:01:07.680 see this as an invasion by drug runners flooding the 0:01:07.800 --> 0:01:09.560 US market, and this is the way they're going to 0:01:09.600 --> 0:01:10.039 stop it. 0:01:10.640 --> 0:01:13.440 Experts say these strikes violate international law. 0:01:13.880 --> 0:01:17.160 The real motivation for why these are actually happening is 0:01:17.200 --> 0:01:19.960 something that has remained a very elusive reporting target. 0:01:20.600 --> 0:01:23.840 The US is also building up its military presence in 0:01:23.840 --> 0:01:27.560 the Caribbean, which is fueling intense speculation over what the 0:01:27.560 --> 0:01:30.280 White House is planning to do next and what its 0:01:30.319 --> 0:01:34.559 overall objective is. CBS News is Nora O'Donnell asked President 0:01:34.600 --> 0:01:37.280 Trump about that in an interview that aired on Sixty 0:01:37.319 --> 0:01:39.880 Minutes on Sunday on Venezuela. 0:01:39.920 --> 0:01:43.800 In particular, are Maduro's days as president numbers? 0:01:43.840 --> 0:01:44.479 Oh so, yeah? 0:01:44.760 --> 0:01:51.200 I think so you. I'm David Gera, and this is 0:01:51.200 --> 0:01:54.000 the big take from Bloomberg News Today. On the show, 0:01:54.120 --> 0:01:57.440 as the Trump administration continues to authorize strikes on boats 0:01:57.480 --> 0:01:59.920 off South America, we take a look at the military 0:02:00.200 --> 0:02:03.400 hardware President Trump has ordered to the region, Why he's 0:02:03.440 --> 0:02:06.400 taking aim at Venezuela now, and what could happen next. 0:02:12.760 --> 0:02:15.160 Over the last two months, strikes carried out by the 0:02:15.280 --> 0:02:18.320 US military on vessels in the Pacific and Caribbean have 0:02:18.440 --> 0:02:22.200 killed more than sixty people. The Trump administration says those 0:02:22.240 --> 0:02:24.840 strikes and a growing military presence off the coast of 0:02:24.919 --> 0:02:28.079 Venezuela are meant to hinder the flow of drugs from 0:02:28.120 --> 0:02:31.480 South America to the United States. I asked Bloomberg's Nick 0:02:31.520 --> 0:02:34.160 Wadhams if there is more to the story. 0:02:34.320 --> 0:02:36.960 The element that's very high in a lot of people's 0:02:37.000 --> 0:02:41.880 minds is Venezuela is leadership president Nicholas Maduro. The US 0:02:41.960 --> 0:02:45.440 says he's essentially the head of this drug running criminal enterprise, 0:02:45.600 --> 0:02:48.400 though as far as we know, not a lot of 0:02:48.480 --> 0:02:51.840 drugs are produced in Venezuela. It's mostly a transit point 0:02:51.919 --> 0:02:55.680 for drugs flowing from elsewhere. But that has fueled a 0:02:55.680 --> 0:02:58.600 lot of suspicion that the US basically wants regime change 0:02:58.600 --> 0:03:00.239 in Venezuela. I mean, we know for a lot long 0:03:00.280 --> 0:03:03.359 time that the US has wanted Nicholas Maduro out. They've 0:03:03.360 --> 0:03:07.520 put a multimillion dollar bounty on his head for any 0:03:07.520 --> 0:03:10.880 information leading to his arrest. They tried in Trump's first 0:03:11.000 --> 0:03:14.480 term to usher him from power. They failed, And now 0:03:14.520 --> 0:03:16.960 you have a Secretary of State and Marco Rubio who 0:03:16.960 --> 0:03:19.800 has been even far more explicit about his desire to 0:03:19.800 --> 0:03:22.840 see Adua leave power. And so that has then fueled 0:03:22.880 --> 0:03:25.440 a lot of speculation that the military build up is 0:03:25.480 --> 0:03:28.880 not really about targeting these boats, but it's laying the 0:03:28.960 --> 0:03:34.160 groundwork for airstrikes or possibly even an invasion that would 0:03:34.240 --> 0:03:35.800 lead to Maduro's ouster. 0:03:36.880 --> 0:03:39.560 Nick, how effective has this campaign been as a way 0:03:39.600 --> 0:03:42.240 of ratcheting up pressure on President Maduro? What do we 0:03:42.240 --> 0:03:44.480 know about what's happening on the ground in Venezuela. 0:03:44.680 --> 0:03:47.400 It has ratcheted up a great deal of pressure on 0:03:47.600 --> 0:03:50.800 Nicholas Maduro. There's no question that he is feeling the heat. 0:03:50.880 --> 0:03:55.440 He has called up troops, he's put his country on 0:03:55.520 --> 0:03:59.520 high alert. The question, though, is what the ultimate effect 0:03:59.560 --> 0:04:03.640 will actually be the opposition in Venezuela. You may recall 0:04:03.720 --> 0:04:07.240 that opposition leader Machado just won the Nobel Peace Prize 0:04:07.280 --> 0:04:10.520 for her efforts, but she essentially argues that all this 0:04:10.640 --> 0:04:12.880 pressure is going to put so much of a squeeze 0:04:12.880 --> 0:04:14.600 on Nicholas Maduro that he's going to be. 0:04:14.600 --> 0:04:15.560 Forced to leave power. 0:04:15.880 --> 0:04:18.200 The flip side of that is the argument that actually, 0:04:18.240 --> 0:04:23.200 by creating this extremely tense environment, that only gives Maduro 0:04:23.360 --> 0:04:26.880 additional strength and support and attracts more people to his 0:04:27.000 --> 0:04:31.279 side and essentially entrenches his position so that he emerges 0:04:31.360 --> 0:04:34.200 from this even stronger. So there are a lot of 0:04:34.279 --> 0:04:37.920 questions about how tenuous his grip on power really is. 0:04:38.040 --> 0:04:40.560 But you know, there has been a great deal of reporting, 0:04:40.600 --> 0:04:43.479 including by Bloomberg, that he is looking for a way 0:04:43.560 --> 0:04:48.120 out and he would vastly prefer a diplomatic solution to this. 0:04:49.520 --> 0:04:50.320 There had been some. 0:04:50.320 --> 0:04:53.640 Reporting that he was even looking for a strong economic 0:04:53.680 --> 0:04:56.680 deal where he would essentially sell all Venezuela's oil to 0:04:56.720 --> 0:04:57.640 the United States. 0:04:59.160 --> 0:05:02.480 I asked Beco Wawer, the defense lead at Bloomberg Economics, 0:05:02.600 --> 0:05:05.600 to detail just how much military might the US is 0:05:05.640 --> 0:05:07.240 mobilized off of South America. 0:05:07.600 --> 0:05:11.080 Well, we've got a lot of seapower, airpower, and firepower 0:05:11.160 --> 0:05:16.000 now in the Caribbean and in the Eastern Pacific, and honestly, 0:05:16.080 --> 0:05:18.840 this is probably the most that we've seen in those 0:05:18.880 --> 0:05:22.800 two regions for quite some time. So we've got multiple 0:05:22.960 --> 0:05:28.440 guided missile destroyers which tend to carry missiles, including Tomahawk 0:05:28.520 --> 0:05:31.480 land attack missiles that could be used in potential strikes. 0:05:31.960 --> 0:05:36.000 We also have an amphibious Ready Group, which allows the 0:05:36.080 --> 0:05:39.360 US to have a number of forces in the region. 0:05:39.520 --> 0:05:43.320 So this is where you see a marine expeditionary unit 0:05:43.640 --> 0:05:47.119 embarked upon and it should be there in about a week. 0:05:47.279 --> 0:05:51.560 Or so, and that's going to bring not only sizeable 0:05:51.640 --> 0:05:57.000 number of sailors aboard, but also aircraft fighter aircraft that 0:05:57.040 --> 0:06:00.120 can take off from the decks of the carrier and 0:06:00.279 --> 0:06:05.599 potentially do strikes on either ships, whether it's these narco 0:06:05.680 --> 0:06:10.440 trafficking boats or perhaps even strikes on land. In addition 0:06:10.520 --> 0:06:13.479 to that, we've seen some special Forces assets in the 0:06:13.480 --> 0:06:16.200 region as well, which is added to some of the 0:06:16.200 --> 0:06:19.719 potential pressure campaign that right now, this build up is 0:06:19.920 --> 0:06:23.520 likely placing on Maduro, where it is almost a bit 0:06:23.560 --> 0:06:26.880 of a psychological operation. It's not just about the build 0:06:26.960 --> 0:06:29.920 up itself and what those capabilities could bring, but as 0:06:30.000 --> 0:06:33.000 Nick was talking about, what it is that that pressure 0:06:33.040 --> 0:06:36.520 could force Maduro to actually end up doing, which could 0:06:36.520 --> 0:06:38.919 be potentially stepping down from power. 0:06:39.160 --> 0:06:41.239 Yeah, Nick, I think of this piece that retired Admiral 0:06:41.279 --> 0:06:43.560 James Uvritis road for Bloomberg Opinion, which he said, Look, 0:06:43.560 --> 0:06:45.880 if the goal here is to take out narco traffickers, 0:06:45.920 --> 0:06:48.400 take out these boats, there's no way you would need 0:06:48.400 --> 0:06:51.960 this much manpower and this much military equipment. So what 0:06:52.000 --> 0:06:54.520 does it indicate to you just all that's being marshaled. 0:06:54.200 --> 0:06:56.760 There right I Mean, it's a great question because when 0:06:56.800 --> 0:07:00.800 you're deploying an aircraft carrier strike grew and then you 0:07:00.880 --> 0:07:03.440 look at the size of the boats that the administration 0:07:03.520 --> 0:07:05.400 has essentially been blowing out of the water. 0:07:05.839 --> 0:07:08.560 There does seem to be a real imbalance there. 0:07:08.600 --> 0:07:10.840 So, you know, the big question we've really been trying 0:07:10.880 --> 0:07:14.360 to answer is how much of this is actually heading 0:07:14.440 --> 0:07:17.800 toward some sort of massive conflict where the US would 0:07:17.840 --> 0:07:20.520 strike the land, which after all, is something that President 0:07:20.760 --> 0:07:23.320 Trump has said he's willing to do. And how much 0:07:23.320 --> 0:07:28.440 of it is essentially the president using military assets at 0:07:28.480 --> 0:07:32.920 his disposal to basically act as a deterrent, to send 0:07:32.960 --> 0:07:34.480 a threatening message. 0:07:34.080 --> 0:07:35.880 That it's all bluster. You know. 0:07:36.000 --> 0:07:38.960 The administration, when we have asked him about this, have said, hey, 0:07:39.000 --> 0:07:42.280 we've deployed military assets all around the world for many years, 0:07:42.280 --> 0:07:45.040 and then when we deploy them in our own backyard, 0:07:45.320 --> 0:07:48.120 suddenly the media freaks out. Why shouldn't we be interested 0:07:48.160 --> 0:07:51.840 in what's going on in our own hemisphere? And that 0:07:51.960 --> 0:07:55.000 really is sort of part of the problem. Where in 0:07:55.360 --> 0:07:58.760 past administrations when you had strikes like this, a lot 0:07:58.800 --> 0:08:01.880 of it was done in secrecy, but then there would 0:08:01.920 --> 0:08:06.040 at least be some attempt to sort of explain or 0:08:06.400 --> 0:08:10.400 walk people through a lot of the details, maybe on 0:08:10.520 --> 0:08:14.360 background or even off the record, sort of making the 0:08:14.400 --> 0:08:17.920 case in a very clear way about what the strategy 0:08:18.200 --> 0:08:20.920 actually was for doing all of these things, which on 0:08:21.000 --> 0:08:24.280 the surface seemed to be rather contradictory. And right now, 0:08:24.320 --> 0:08:27.400 aside from some pronouncements, we have not really been able 0:08:27.440 --> 0:08:32.199 to interrogate the administration in a public way about why 0:08:32.240 --> 0:08:36.200 precisely they feel if this is a campaign designed to 0:08:36.240 --> 0:08:40.920 target narco traffickers, they need to deploy an aircraft carrier 0:08:41.000 --> 0:08:44.120 strike group and a submarine and all of these other 0:08:44.200 --> 0:08:47.720 assets which would in any other circumstance be seen as 0:08:47.800 --> 0:08:49.520 essentially a prelude to an invasion. 0:08:52.040 --> 0:08:54.679 After the break, what a US attack on Venezuela could 0:08:54.720 --> 0:08:57.760 look like, and how that country's oil reserves are shaping 0:08:57.760 --> 0:09:12.040 the Trump administration's plans. Because something you have a lot 0:09:12.040 --> 0:09:15.440 of experience with are war games gaming out sort of 0:09:15.440 --> 0:09:18.000 what might happen in a scenario like this, How do 0:09:18.040 --> 0:09:19.680 you look at sort of the way that this might 0:09:20.559 --> 0:09:22.559 evolve and what that might mean, how it might play on. 0:09:23.120 --> 0:09:25.760 Yeah, so with my war gaming hat on, thinking about 0:09:25.840 --> 0:09:27.720 all of the games that I've run for the Department 0:09:27.760 --> 0:09:31.280 of Defense and for other militaries around the globe. I 0:09:31.400 --> 0:09:34.839 sort of see this as there being a few different options. 0:09:35.200 --> 0:09:38.720 You know, one would be using some of the covert 0:09:38.800 --> 0:09:42.560 assets that the US uses, trying to use special operations 0:09:42.600 --> 0:09:46.000 forces to do some type of regime change from within. 0:09:46.640 --> 0:09:48.440 I think that that's a little bit more of a 0:09:48.520 --> 0:09:52.400 less likely scenario. So instead, that makes me think that 0:09:52.440 --> 0:09:56.040 there's probably two potential strike options if we're looking at 0:09:56.040 --> 0:09:59.560 the assets that are currently in theater. The first one 0:09:59.760 --> 0:10:04.840 is going after infrastructure, having these big, showy strikes that 0:10:04.920 --> 0:10:08.360 are very visible and very public and can last for 0:10:08.880 --> 0:10:12.640 several days, maybe a few weeks. The second option would 0:10:12.679 --> 0:10:16.000 be one that's more so going after the various nodes 0:10:16.200 --> 0:10:20.560 of the cartels, so going after different transportation routes, going 0:10:20.679 --> 0:10:24.640 after cartel leadership, particularly when they're on the move. And 0:10:24.720 --> 0:10:26.720 this is going to look a lot like some of 0:10:26.760 --> 0:10:29.800 the counter terrorism operations that we've seen in places like 0:10:29.840 --> 0:10:33.679 Afghanistan and Iraq. It's going to require a bunch of 0:10:33.760 --> 0:10:37.400 air power and air strikes. So really I think what 0:10:37.400 --> 0:10:40.240 we're seeing here are two kind of options. These big 0:10:40.280 --> 0:10:43.000 attacks kind of a little bit like what we saw 0:10:43.080 --> 0:10:47.400 the administration do against the Huthi's earlier this year, and 0:10:47.440 --> 0:10:50.920 then also these almost counter terrorism style attacks where they're 0:10:50.960 --> 0:10:54.840 going to go after transportation nodes and key leadership. In 0:10:54.880 --> 0:10:59.680 both cases, there's a fairly limited track record of success. 0:11:00.080 --> 0:11:02.480 So that doesn't necessarily give me a lot of hope 0:11:02.720 --> 0:11:05.240 that if the US were to conduct any of these 0:11:05.280 --> 0:11:09.000 strikes that they would be successful at going after and 0:11:09.160 --> 0:11:12.640 stabbing the flow of drugs, if that truly is what 0:11:12.880 --> 0:11:14.880 the impetus for these attacks would be. 0:11:16.280 --> 0:11:18.439 Nick, I know that Venezuela has an awful lot of oil, 0:11:18.640 --> 0:11:20.760 and I wonder how that might be shaping the way 0:11:20.800 --> 0:11:23.040 the administration is thinking about its course forward. 0:11:23.480 --> 0:11:26.040 David, that is really at the heart of so much 0:11:26.120 --> 0:11:28.839 of this, because when you look at this conflict through 0:11:29.240 --> 0:11:32.680 the perspective of oil, you really start to peel back 0:11:32.800 --> 0:11:35.720 a lot of layers and see some hidden currents that 0:11:35.920 --> 0:11:39.160 have been coursing through this administration since Trump came back. 0:11:39.200 --> 0:11:41.000 So you've essentially got two pulls. 0:11:41.040 --> 0:11:44.640 One is Marco Rubio, who wants to ramp up even 0:11:44.840 --> 0:11:47.559 further the sanctions that have been imposed on Venezuela to 0:11:47.679 --> 0:11:50.400 choke off its oil industry, stop the flow of oil, 0:11:51.040 --> 0:11:54.480 and really starve Maduro of the hard currency. 0:11:54.600 --> 0:11:55.920 He needs to stay afloat. 0:11:56.240 --> 0:11:59.040 On the other hand, you have a Trump advisor who's 0:11:59.080 --> 0:12:01.800 now actually run the Kennedy Center for Donald Trump. He's 0:12:01.840 --> 0:12:05.280 the former ambassador to Germany, someone named Richard Grenell, and 0:12:05.320 --> 0:12:08.520 he had been pushing this idea that no, let's open 0:12:08.559 --> 0:12:12.360 it up entirely. Let's essentially create a situation where we 0:12:12.480 --> 0:12:15.640 lift all the sanctions and then the United States buys 0:12:15.679 --> 0:12:18.959 all of Venezuela's oil, and then we can tear iff 0:12:19.000 --> 0:12:21.880 the heck out of everything coming in from Venezuela and 0:12:22.000 --> 0:12:26.400 essentially make Venezuela the fifty first state of the United States. 0:12:26.440 --> 0:12:29.400 So a very different approach and sort of playing. 0:12:29.480 --> 0:12:33.640 Do you have these two advisors playing to different aspects 0:12:33.720 --> 0:12:37.319 or different impulses from the president, one being his desired 0:12:37.440 --> 0:12:40.240 piece through strength and desire to get tough, and then 0:12:40.280 --> 0:12:43.800 the other, Hey, tariffs and business deals and let's make 0:12:43.840 --> 0:12:46.560 a deal art of the deal. You know, I don't 0:12:46.600 --> 0:12:49.240 care so much about your values and whether you believe 0:12:49.280 --> 0:12:52.120 in democracy as long as we have a business partnership 0:12:52.559 --> 0:12:54.960 between the two countries. And safe to say, right now, 0:12:55.000 --> 0:12:58.200 the Rubio approach has definitely won. There is absolutely no 0:12:58.320 --> 0:13:01.160 indication that present and Trump is going to be willing 0:13:01.200 --> 0:13:04.760 anytime soon to lift those sanctions and pursue any sort 0:13:04.800 --> 0:13:08.439 of oil deals with Venezuela. But he is getting pressure 0:13:08.559 --> 0:13:12.520 from some of his allies. Obviously, the oil majors. Chevron 0:13:12.640 --> 0:13:16.040 still does some business in Venezuela. They would love to 0:13:16.080 --> 0:13:19.400 get into that market. And the question is, well, how 0:13:19.440 --> 0:13:24.280 long does Trump's patients last? Is he really after coming 0:13:24.320 --> 0:13:27.640 to the presidency billing himself as the peace president, He's 0:13:27.640 --> 0:13:30.600 solved a bunch of wars, he didn't start any new ones. 0:13:30.960 --> 0:13:34.360 Is he really going to commit to the idea of 0:13:34.400 --> 0:13:37.320 a massive campaign? I mean, right now there essentially there's 0:13:37.480 --> 0:13:39.960 very little notion that the US would put actual boots 0:13:40.000 --> 0:13:42.959 on the ground in Venezuela. But is he willing to 0:13:43.160 --> 0:13:46.280 enter into a lengthy air campaign against Venezuela when it 0:13:46.320 --> 0:13:49.400 goes against so much of the reasons why he said 0:13:49.440 --> 0:13:52.040 he deserved to be president a second time? And how 0:13:52.120 --> 0:13:54.480 much is he going to lose patients for that effort 0:13:54.520 --> 0:13:56.720 and then try to lean into some other effort where 0:13:56.760 --> 0:13:59.360 he could essentially cut a deal with Maduro the way 0:13:59.360 --> 0:14:01.440 you saw him try to cut a deal with Vladimir 0:14:01.480 --> 0:14:04.320 putin North Korea? Is Kim jong Un and even in 0:14:04.360 --> 0:14:06.280 some cases you know has said he wants to cut 0:14:06.280 --> 0:14:07.120 a deal with a run. 0:14:13.000 --> 0:14:15.600 This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gurat. 0:14:15.640 --> 0:14:18.520 The show is hosted by me Wanha and Sarah Holder. 0:14:18.960 --> 0:14:21.800 The show is made by Aaron Edwards, David Fox, Eleanor 0:14:21.840 --> 0:14:26.000 Harrison Dengate, Patti Hirsch, Rachel Lewis, Krisky, Naomi, Julia Press, 0:14:26.080 --> 0:14:30.200 Tracy Samuelson, Naomi Shavin, Alex Sakura, Julia Weaver, Young Young, 0:14:30.440 --> 0:14:33.000 and take Yasizawa. To get more from the Big Take 0:14:33.080 --> 0:14:36.200 and unlimited access to all of Bloomberg dot com, subscribe 0:14:36.200 --> 0:14:40.240 today at Bloomberg dot Com Slash Podcast offer. Thanks for listening. 0:14:40.400 --> 0:14:42.560 We'll be back on Monday.