WEBVTT - Frisky Dentists

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>I am so tickled that Bloomberg just has like loose

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<v Speaker 2>starbursts is a snack option, at least for this week.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm most tickled by the chocolate covered Swedish fish. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>my children are occasional Swedish fish eaters. Katie's going to

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<v Speaker 1>unwrap and chew a Star Wars.

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<v Speaker 2>On this podcast. Amazing. We're gonna silk the mic away

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<v Speaker 2>as I chew it.

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<v Speaker 1>I haven't headline, and I have a bucket of Star Wars.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm hoping you're going to talk for like at least

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<v Speaker 2>fifteen seconds.

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<v Speaker 1>So I can heap this fifteen seconds. I feel like

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<v Speaker 1>a Star Wars. There's like a two minute proposition anyway.

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<v Speaker 1>Swedish fish, chocolate covered Swedish fish. I'm killing time now

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<v Speaker 1>with Katie cheese chocolate covered Swedish fish just loose in

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<v Speaker 1>a big tank. My children are sort of Swedish fish eaters,

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<v Speaker 1>and I want to bring to them the imubious pleasures

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<v Speaker 1>of chocolate covered Swedish fish. But I can't just take a.

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<v Speaker 2>Handful of No, you gotta wrap in a napkin or something.

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<v Speaker 1>To figure it out. Transporting the chocolate cover.

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<v Speaker 2>Fish to your point on time about starbursts, I eat

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of starbursts. I keep a bag of star Wars. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>pretty much in my car. So I pretty much optimized

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<v Speaker 2>my process and I.

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<v Speaker 1>Have not time. I'm not going to attempt the starbursts

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<v Speaker 1>during this podcast.

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<v Speaker 2>That's going to take you a while. You've got a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of starburst there.

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<v Speaker 1>So do you tell about real estate? Is it boring?

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<v Speaker 2>No, it's been pretty cutthroat. This past week has been

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<v Speaker 2>pretty harrowing in terms of, you know, the tight ropeer'

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<v Speaker 2>walking when it comes to our real estate dealings. Right now,

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<v Speaker 2>I can't care about anything. I don't know. I just

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<v Speaker 2>like if it's not interrupting the flow of nutrients to

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<v Speaker 2>my placenta. Like I just I can't make myself care

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<v Speaker 2>about anything.

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<v Speaker 1>Hello, and welcome to podcast.

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<v Speaker 2>I think that listen, I'm here. It's amazing that I'm here.

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<v Speaker 1>We're not going to call the episode of nutrients to Santova.

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<v Speaker 2>It's pretty good though, right all right, Hello.

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<v Speaker 1>And welcome to The Money's Podcast, your weekly podcasts where

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<v Speaker 1>we're talk about stuff and Katie doesn't care about we're

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<v Speaker 1>talking about stuff related to money. I'm Matt Levine. And

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<v Speaker 1>I write the money Stuff column for Bloomberg Opinion.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, I definitely care about money. My name is Katie Greifeld.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm a reporter for Bloomberg News and an anchor for

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Television.

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<v Speaker 1>Should I read my favorite news story of the week,

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<v Speaker 1>which he was really a new story of last week,

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<v Speaker 1>but we didn't get to it because you were out.

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<v Speaker 1>GameStop is by.

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<v Speaker 2>Amazingly. This wasn't a huge topic of conversation at Milkin,

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<v Speaker 2>but I would have liked it to be.

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<v Speaker 1>It should have been Michael Milkan. He neted the highly

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<v Speaker 1>confident letter, which in my time as a mergers and

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<v Speaker 1>acquisitions lawyer, he did not see a lot of highly

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<v Speaker 1>confident letters because they were replaced by commitment letters. But

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<v Speaker 1>game Stuff is brought back the highly confident letter. But yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>so games up, I guess last week put in a

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<v Speaker 1>bid to buy Evey for half cash half stock. Game

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<v Speaker 1>Stuff has neither the cash nor the stock, which is funny.

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<v Speaker 1>People are like, well, game Stuff doesn't enough stuck because

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<v Speaker 1>ebased so much bigger. That's not a real thing. You

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<v Speaker 1>can issue as much stock as you want in the

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<v Speaker 1>general case, but game Stop can't because it doesn't have

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<v Speaker 1>enough authorized shares. No, it's trying to authorize more shares.

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<v Speaker 1>But yeah, so it's going to pay twenty eight billion

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<v Speaker 1>in cash for eBay, which requires borrowing twenty billion dollars

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<v Speaker 1>from TV Bank. Yeah, gave it a highly confident letter

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<v Speaker 1>saying that we could probably raise that money, no problem,

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<v Speaker 1>no commitments, and then I was going to issue stock

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<v Speaker 1>for the rest, and they lobbed in that bid. Last week,

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<v Speaker 1>everyone scratched their heads. This week Evey said no, thank you.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>The latest news is that Ryan Cohen, the CEO of

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<v Speaker 1>game Stop, is going around giving interviews and sending letters

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<v Speaker 1>to EVA saying no, no, no, you you should take

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<v Speaker 1>my bid seriously.

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<v Speaker 2>So, man, I aren't allowed to talk unless we're in

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<v Speaker 2>this room with microphones in front of us. So it's

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<v Speaker 2>been interesting through your columns, watching your sort of like

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<v Speaker 2>wrestling with the idea of this a fag takeover offer. Two.

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<v Speaker 2>Maybe this was a job application all along.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah. My thinking is about because obviously I know, I

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<v Speaker 1>know and love game Stop as a meme stock, and

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<v Speaker 1>this feels very stunty in a lot of ways, one

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<v Speaker 1>of which is that they don't have the money. In

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<v Speaker 1>other words, they don't have the stock, which is hard

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<v Speaker 1>to do. You have to like work hard to not

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<v Speaker 1>have the ability to issue stock for a takeover that

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<v Speaker 1>you're planning to do. Another is that Ryan Cohen has

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<v Speaker 1>did a little stunt where he listed some of his

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<v Speaker 1>personal possessions, including his socks, on eBay as like research

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<v Speaker 1>slash financing for the takeover.

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<v Speaker 2>I feel like you're maybe going to bid on those socks.

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<v Speaker 2>You've mentioned them so many times. The socks are they used?

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<v Speaker 1>I think they are, but I'm trying not to think

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<v Speaker 1>about that now. I'm not gonna been on the socks

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<v Speaker 1>in any case. But so so I was like, this

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<v Speaker 1>is like a joke, This is a fake takeover. This

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<v Speaker 1>is poorly thought out. But the more I think about it,

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<v Speaker 1>and this is based in part on interviews that Cohen

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<v Speaker 1>has given. He wants to be CEO of eBay, and

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<v Speaker 1>this is a convoluted, poorly thought out way for him

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<v Speaker 1>to say, make me CEO of eBay. His case for

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<v Speaker 1>being CEO of eBay is not crazy, right, He ran well, Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>Katie's Rolling Rise and it's crazy. But but like he

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<v Speaker 1>ran a big he like founded and ran a big

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<v Speaker 1>e commerce company, Chewy. He I don't think that you

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<v Speaker 1>would say that he has succeeded in his dreams of

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<v Speaker 1>making GameStop a serious competitor to Amazon, but he's cut

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<v Speaker 1>costed games. If you've turned around the business a little bit.

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<v Speaker 1>He's had a good run running game Stop, and now

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<v Speaker 1>he wants to run eBay, and this is his application

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<v Speaker 1>to run eBay. The handy ret is, if you offer

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<v Speaker 1>to buy a company for cash, it doesn't matter what

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<v Speaker 1>your plans for the company. You might say them because

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<v Speaker 1>you know it might be might appeal to someone, but ultimately,

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<v Speaker 1>if you're like, I'm gonna pay you cash, then the

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<v Speaker 1>shareolders are like, okay, I'll take cash, and then I'll

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<v Speaker 1>be out of the company, and whatever you do with

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<v Speaker 1>the company is your problem, not mine. Right. If you're

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<v Speaker 1>like Meta and you're offering to buy a small startup

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<v Speaker 1>for stock, it's almost the same thing. What Meta does

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<v Speaker 1>with that startup sort of doesn't matter to the startups

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<v Speaker 1>owners because they're just getting stock in this giant entity.

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<v Speaker 1>But when you are game Stop offering to buy eBay

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<v Speaker 1>for stock, and eBay is really quite a lot bigger

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<v Speaker 1>than game Stop, Owen's math is like eBay would ownt

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<v Speaker 1>twice as much of the company as game Stop. But

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<v Speaker 1>it's like, really more than that. But so in that scenario,

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<v Speaker 1>the only thing that matters to eBay shareholders is what

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<v Speaker 1>are your plans for eBay? Would you do a better

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<v Speaker 1>job of running eBay than eBay's current management would And

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<v Speaker 1>you know, Coen is making that case. He's like, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I've provided over a value to collide and I will

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<v Speaker 1>do you know, jazzy memestock stuff. So that's where we are.

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<v Speaker 1>He's making the case that he could run it better

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<v Speaker 1>than eBay does. And all this stuff about half cash,

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<v Speaker 1>half stock, takeovers, one hundred and twenty five dollars, takeover

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<v Speaker 1>for sure of takeover, p has all that is kind

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<v Speaker 1>of fake. It's really do you want him to be

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<v Speaker 1>your CEO?

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<v Speaker 2>Then?

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<v Speaker 1>I don't get the sense that eBay shareholders are clamoring from.

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<v Speaker 1>It's more of a game Stop old thing.

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<v Speaker 2>But first of all, I have to commend you for

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<v Speaker 2>watching the Ryan Cohen interview with the Reddit. You did

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<v Speaker 2>you didn't watch the palm video.

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<v Speaker 1>I didn't do that. No, well, okay, not Coen did,

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<v Speaker 1>because it's you know, eliciting materials.

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<v Speaker 2>I did think it's interesting in that that interview. First

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<v Speaker 2>of all, he was appealing that he should be a

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<v Speaker 2>CEO of eBay, that he gives a hoot. Basically, yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>he said a bad word, but basically he put his

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<v Speaker 2>money where his mouth is. You do on a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of eBay shares, et cetera.

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<v Speaker 1>This is like such standard activist playbook. Active is always

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<v Speaker 1>five percent, not the doesn't five.

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<v Speaker 2>Percent of Yeah, but he also said that he doesn't

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<v Speaker 2>really want to be game stops. You that's crazy.

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<v Speaker 1>He did say that.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I read that a few times because I'm like,

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<v Speaker 2>that is crazy work. This is what he said. I

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<v Speaker 2>have always long admired eBay's business, and I didn't want

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<v Speaker 2>to be the CEO of game stops.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, game stuff to take over EVA.

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<v Speaker 2>But I looked at GameStop share price because then naively

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<v Speaker 2>thought it was like, does anyone care that the CEO

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<v Speaker 2>said that that they don't want to be the CEO

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<v Speaker 2>and it seems like they don't.

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<v Speaker 1>They enjoy being nagged.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, apparently, I don't know what sort of psychological experiment

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<v Speaker 2>is going on with game stop shareholders, but it's fascinating.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I'm sure you didn't mean it like that. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know how I meant it, but I.

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<v Speaker 2>Mean, neither of us watched the video, so all we're

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<v Speaker 2>doing is reading the naked words. But the naked words

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<v Speaker 2>say I didn't want to be the CEO of game Stop,

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<v Speaker 2>so it's wild I do find it.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it was like he you know, took over,

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<v Speaker 1>like he bought a big position in game Stop and

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<v Speaker 1>gave them some suggestions and then ultimately was like, I

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<v Speaker 1>need to be running this company.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>It was not like he started an activist campaign to

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<v Speaker 1>put himself in charge in the beginning. It was more

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<v Speaker 1>like he liked, yeah, and then now I need to

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<v Speaker 1>fix it.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>Also just like he's like retired after two and then

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<v Speaker 1>he was like, no, I need to shake the pups.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, well we'll see if it works. It doesn't seem

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<v Speaker 2>like it's going to. No.

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<v Speaker 1>The next thing he do is run a proxy fight.

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<v Speaker 1>But of what's happened here is this is so disorganized

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<v Speaker 1>and not real, Like, you know, he offered to do

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<v Speaker 1>a takeover with enough authorized shares. Their annual meeting is

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<v Speaker 1>coming up, the deadline fornominations is long past. They can't

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<v Speaker 1>actually do a proxy for it for months now at least,

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<v Speaker 1>So it's it's not a real a real activist. It's

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<v Speaker 1>more just sort of like poking around and seeing what

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<v Speaker 1>will happen.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and just stirring it up. I do find it

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<v Speaker 2>interesting that he's so enamored with eBay, like he just

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<v Speaker 2>this is his white whale. He just he just wants eBay,

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<v Speaker 2>which is mostly good.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, start an e commerce company.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>Also he now runs a I don't know what these

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<v Speaker 1>companies are. He runs a collectibles company. Sure, eBay is

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<v Speaker 1>like the white whale of online collectibles.

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<v Speaker 2>That's where you go for collectibless. That's true, and.

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<v Speaker 1>There's a huge energy where you can both go to

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<v Speaker 1>eBay's website or walk into your local game stop and

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<v Speaker 1>get your collectibles created and auctioned. I watch this space.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm hoping he continues to do nonsense. This is the

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<v Speaker 1>case where even if it just fizzles, it's still interesting

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<v Speaker 1>because game stop owns five percent of the based stock,

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<v Speaker 1>and if it fizzles, they're gonna have to sell that.

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<v Speaker 1>That's going to be kind of awkward if they do it,

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<v Speaker 1>they take over and then sell the stock. You're not

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<v Speaker 1>really supposed to do that.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's kind of to He gave.

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<v Speaker 1>It interview on the NBAC that was like super super

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<v Speaker 1>super awkward, although honestly it wasn't entirely.

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<v Speaker 2>I had to take breaks as I was watching it.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, one thing that I've written is again, like people's

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<v Speaker 1>initial reaction to this was like, how could game Stop

0:10:43.480 --> 0:10:46.240
<v Speaker 1>pay twenty eight billion dollars of stock for eBay if

0:10:46.280 --> 0:10:48.160
<v Speaker 1>it only has twelve billion dollars stock? And I think

0:10:48.160 --> 0:10:50.240
<v Speaker 1>that's the wrong way to look at it. Like, you

0:10:50.280 --> 0:10:52.640
<v Speaker 1>can issue as much stock as you want, and twenty

0:10:52.640 --> 0:10:54.640
<v Speaker 1>eight billion dollars stack for eBay would just be stock

0:10:54.679 --> 0:10:56.920
<v Speaker 1>of eBay. It would just be like eBay shareolders would

0:10:56.920 --> 0:11:00.240
<v Speaker 1>be given ownership interest in their own company. And the

0:11:00.280 --> 0:11:02.360
<v Speaker 1>thing that would change was it would be one it

0:11:02.400 --> 0:11:05.400
<v Speaker 1>would be smitshed together with game Stop, and two, more importantly,

0:11:05.679 --> 0:11:07.520
<v Speaker 1>Ryan con would run the whole thing. So if you

0:11:07.520 --> 0:11:09.679
<v Speaker 1>think Ryan Cohn running it is a good thing, then

0:11:09.679 --> 0:11:12.000
<v Speaker 1>you'll think, oh great, twenty eight billion dollars of stock

0:11:12.040 --> 0:11:15.080
<v Speaker 1>in this acquisition is valuable. It doesn't have anything to

0:11:15.120 --> 0:11:17.440
<v Speaker 1>do with how much game Stop is currently worth, right,

0:11:17.480 --> 0:11:20.120
<v Speaker 1>It only has to do with what you think the

0:11:20.160 --> 0:11:22.920
<v Speaker 1>future combined company is worth. So my, you know, I

0:11:22.960 --> 0:11:24.440
<v Speaker 1>watched that interview and I was like, why are people

0:11:24.480 --> 0:11:26.360
<v Speaker 1>giving him a hard time about not having enough stock.

0:11:26.840 --> 0:11:28.760
<v Speaker 1>You can issue as much stock as you want. Then

0:11:28.800 --> 0:11:30.760
<v Speaker 1>I went and read their certificate of incorporation and I

0:11:30.800 --> 0:11:33.560
<v Speaker 1>realized he can't actually issue an his stock and in fact,

0:11:33.679 --> 0:11:34.839
<v Speaker 1>no one had thought this through at all.

0:11:36.360 --> 0:11:37.120
<v Speaker 2>It was so good.

0:11:37.400 --> 0:11:40.800
<v Speaker 1>It definitely made me think more that in the socks

0:11:40.840 --> 0:11:44.000
<v Speaker 1>thing made me think, Ah, a fake takeover socks.

0:11:45.240 --> 0:12:00.000
<v Speaker 2>Game bay E Stop Games is not bad, thank you.

0:12:05.559 --> 0:12:11.600
<v Speaker 2>Speaking of Michael Milkin. Yeah, CDOs, No.

0:12:11.559 --> 0:12:15.120
<v Speaker 1>They're not. Closs A slightly different thing. No, I know,

0:12:15.120 --> 0:12:17.679
<v Speaker 1>there's a Bloomberg article that's like Apollo is bringing back

0:12:17.720 --> 0:12:18.439
<v Speaker 1>a thing that looks like.

0:12:19.040 --> 0:12:21.000
<v Speaker 2>Says, there's like CLOS but better.

0:12:21.360 --> 0:12:25.320
<v Speaker 1>Yeah. But there's CLOS in the simple sense that we

0:12:25.400 --> 0:12:28.720
<v Speaker 1>live in a world where there was a giant market

0:12:28.920 --> 0:12:33.400
<v Speaker 1>where companies take out syndicated loans floating rate secured loans,

0:12:33.640 --> 0:12:36.800
<v Speaker 1>and those loans gets packaged into a pool and the

0:12:36.840 --> 0:12:40.640
<v Speaker 1>pool sells rated debt securities on them, and that thing

0:12:40.720 --> 0:12:43.600
<v Speaker 1>is called the CLO right, and Apollo is like, let's

0:12:43.600 --> 0:12:46.319
<v Speaker 1>do that, but instead of with probably syndicated loans, we're

0:12:46.320 --> 0:12:48.440
<v Speaker 1>going to do it with private credit loans. It's a

0:12:48.440 --> 0:12:50.800
<v Speaker 1>CLO yeah, I think it's a CDO in the sense

0:12:50.840 --> 0:12:54.439
<v Speaker 1>that CDO collateralized. That allegation is the sort of umbrella

0:12:54.520 --> 0:12:57.520
<v Speaker 1>term for all debt that you put in a pool.

0:12:57.559 --> 0:12:59.880
<v Speaker 1>But like, there's a big existing market right now of

0:13:00.200 --> 0:13:04.720
<v Speaker 1>things called clos, which is floating right, loan securitizations, and

0:13:04.760 --> 0:13:07.240
<v Speaker 1>there's not such a big existing market of things called

0:13:07.320 --> 0:13:10.200
<v Speaker 1>c doos because those went out of favor in two

0:13:10.240 --> 0:13:10.719
<v Speaker 1>thousand and eight.

0:13:10.840 --> 0:13:13.800
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, they led to an even scarier acronym. Or we're

0:13:13.840 --> 0:13:15.920
<v Speaker 2>a starring character in the GFC.

0:13:16.040 --> 0:13:19.880
<v Speaker 1>The GFC, but these are clearly clos. These are clearly like,

0:13:21.280 --> 0:13:23.400
<v Speaker 1>if you're a company and you want to borrow money,

0:13:23.440 --> 0:13:26.360
<v Speaker 1>you can borrow in the broadly syndicated loan market, in

0:13:26.400 --> 0:13:28.960
<v Speaker 1>which case ultimately your loans will end up in a CLO.

0:13:29.160 --> 0:13:31.200
<v Speaker 1>Or you can borrow from Apollo in a direct credit

0:13:31.280 --> 0:13:33.480
<v Speaker 1>in a direct loan, in which case your loan will

0:13:33.520 --> 0:13:33.959
<v Speaker 1>end up in.

0:13:33.920 --> 0:13:37.400
<v Speaker 2>A it's called a MAPS, a Maps Apollo.

0:13:37.280 --> 0:13:41.480
<v Speaker 1>Multi Asset Prime Securities. I guess once it becomes genericizeder

0:13:41.559 --> 0:13:43.959
<v Speaker 1>you just call it MAPS multi Asset Prime Securities, but

0:13:44.000 --> 0:13:46.800
<v Speaker 1>probably just call it a private credit CLO, which is

0:13:46.800 --> 0:13:49.520
<v Speaker 1>what it is, right And if you borrow from Apollo.

0:13:49.640 --> 0:13:52.200
<v Speaker 1>Your loan will end up in an am apse, which

0:13:52.240 --> 0:13:54.839
<v Speaker 1>is like a CLO, and in either case there will

0:13:54.880 --> 0:13:57.640
<v Speaker 1>be like a highly rated investment grade tranch that is

0:13:57.720 --> 0:14:01.480
<v Speaker 1>most of the pool and that is sold to insurance companies.

0:14:01.840 --> 0:14:04.400
<v Speaker 1>And in Apollow's case, the insurance company will be a Thian,

0:14:04.440 --> 0:14:06.480
<v Speaker 1>which is the insurance company you knows very well. So

0:14:06.480 --> 0:14:07.280
<v Speaker 1>it's just the CLO.

0:14:07.520 --> 0:14:10.160
<v Speaker 2>You're not fussed about this, would anyone be? People are

0:14:10.280 --> 0:14:13.160
<v Speaker 2>certainly fussed about this. There's a little bit of fuss

0:14:13.200 --> 0:14:18.720
<v Speaker 2>in going on. Okay, I'm going to name the name

0:14:18.800 --> 0:14:20.880
<v Speaker 2>of Michael Hislop. I hope I'm saying you're right. He's

0:14:20.880 --> 0:14:24.400
<v Speaker 2>an analyst over a Cure Acid Capital Management. These are

0:14:24.400 --> 0:14:26.280
<v Speaker 2>words that I like to read, not say out loud,

0:14:26.320 --> 0:14:29.920
<v Speaker 2>but basically, he's saying that it's inevitable. He thinks it's

0:14:29.920 --> 0:14:32.720
<v Speaker 2>a CEO saying that it's inevitable that this would make

0:14:32.720 --> 0:14:36.440
<v Speaker 2>a comeback. And structured finance innovations tend to arise when

0:14:36.440 --> 0:14:38.400
<v Speaker 2>there is an issue or need for them rather than

0:14:38.520 --> 0:14:43.080
<v Speaker 2>just investor appetite. So basically saying this is Apollo doing

0:14:43.080 --> 0:14:44.680
<v Speaker 2>this for Apollo's needs.

0:14:44.720 --> 0:14:46.440
<v Speaker 1>When I think about Apollo's needs here. I think there

0:14:46.440 --> 0:14:51.160
<v Speaker 1>are two things going on. One is that I have

0:14:51.280 --> 0:14:53.920
<v Speaker 1>written for years that private credit is ultimately going to

0:14:53.920 --> 0:14:56.280
<v Speaker 1>be it'll be quaint to talk about private credit. It's

0:14:56.320 --> 0:15:01.120
<v Speaker 1>going to be a broadly syndicated, liquidly traded asset class,

0:15:01.200 --> 0:15:04.960
<v Speaker 1>just like bank loans are now. Not everyone agrees with that, right.

0:15:04.960 --> 0:15:06.680
<v Speaker 1>Some people are like, no, no, it's very important that

0:15:06.680 --> 0:15:08.960
<v Speaker 1>it'd be a relationship driven not trading is a big

0:15:08.960 --> 0:15:10.960
<v Speaker 1>part of the appeal of the product. But you see

0:15:10.960 --> 0:15:13.000
<v Speaker 1>from Apollo's actions that they're like, no, no, we want

0:15:13.040 --> 0:15:14.920
<v Speaker 1>to trade it right. They've set up a trading desk.

0:15:15.160 --> 0:15:19.600
<v Speaker 1>They are talking about really pricing, which only really makes

0:15:19.600 --> 0:15:21.920
<v Speaker 1>sense if you think there's going to be a trading market. Yes,

0:15:22.200 --> 0:15:25.320
<v Speaker 1>and so you know, how does the bank syndicated load

0:15:25.680 --> 0:15:28.560
<v Speaker 1>market work, How does that trading work? Well, part of

0:15:28.600 --> 0:15:30.680
<v Speaker 1>it is that clo is, you know, by the stuff.

0:15:31.000 --> 0:15:35.760
<v Speaker 1>So setting up a COLO product for private credit makes

0:15:35.800 --> 0:15:38.240
<v Speaker 1>total sense if you are someone like Apollo who really

0:15:38.240 --> 0:15:41.240
<v Speaker 1>wants the trade private credit and have it be liquid

0:15:41.320 --> 0:15:43.240
<v Speaker 1>and broadly distributed and all the things that the bank

0:15:43.280 --> 0:15:45.840
<v Speaker 1>line market does. The other reason I think that Apollo

0:15:45.960 --> 0:15:48.440
<v Speaker 1>is interested in the sort of thing is that Apollo

0:15:48.720 --> 0:15:51.600
<v Speaker 1>owns a big insurer. A lot of Apollo's private credit

0:15:51.640 --> 0:15:57.000
<v Speaker 1>origination is to put stuff into the insurer. Insurers are

0:15:57.040 --> 0:16:01.680
<v Speaker 1>not huge consumers of junk rating direct loans to LBO

0:16:01.800 --> 0:16:06.640
<v Speaker 1>companies because they have, you know, capital requirements and ratings requirements.

0:16:07.120 --> 0:16:09.280
<v Speaker 1>And so if you can smush a bunch of loans

0:16:09.800 --> 0:16:13.840
<v Speaker 1>into a pool and issue a rated security is on

0:16:13.880 --> 0:16:16.200
<v Speaker 1>the top eighty five percent of that pool, you can

0:16:16.240 --> 0:16:20.160
<v Speaker 1>sell those to your insurance company at a good spread

0:16:20.280 --> 0:16:22.360
<v Speaker 1>and in a good rating and get good capital treatment

0:16:22.360 --> 0:16:25.680
<v Speaker 1>for your insurance company. This is not like a CLO

0:16:26.040 --> 0:16:29.120
<v Speaker 1>manager where they want the equity for the upside and

0:16:29.120 --> 0:16:32.120
<v Speaker 1>they're selling all of the highly rated tranches to outside

0:16:32.160 --> 0:16:34.200
<v Speaker 1>insurance companies. This is like Apollo is an insurance company.

0:16:34.200 --> 0:16:37.080
<v Speaker 1>They want the highly rated tranches because that's how they

0:16:37.120 --> 0:16:40.840
<v Speaker 1>get yield with good capital treatment. So that's a CLO

0:16:42.360 --> 0:16:45.080
<v Speaker 1>wow whatever I mean. CDOs were driven by investor demand

0:16:45.160 --> 0:16:48.000
<v Speaker 1>for ye for yield the triple A paper, and so

0:16:48.480 --> 0:16:51.040
<v Speaker 1>there is a portion of what's going on here. So sure, look,

0:16:51.320 --> 0:16:54.400
<v Speaker 1>any securitization is driven by investor demand for yield the

0:16:54.480 --> 0:16:56.720
<v Speaker 1>triple A paper. You can't get around that.

0:16:57.000 --> 0:17:01.160
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, Well, Paul has cast this as the future of securitization.

0:17:01.320 --> 0:17:03.920
<v Speaker 1>So it is the idea that private credit would just

0:17:03.920 --> 0:17:06.680
<v Speaker 1>be like sleepily sit on the balance sheets of funds

0:17:06.760 --> 0:17:10.840
<v Speaker 1>forever is clearly falling apart, right, I mean, yeah, sitting

0:17:10.920 --> 0:17:13.840
<v Speaker 1>in the balance sheets of PDCs that are getting redemption requests.

0:17:13.840 --> 0:17:17.320
<v Speaker 1>And now it's sitting on the balance sheets of securitizations

0:17:17.359 --> 0:17:19.919
<v Speaker 1>that gets sold to insurance companies, and yeah, it's the

0:17:19.960 --> 0:17:23.480
<v Speaker 1>future of everything. Yeah, okay, sliced uff and securitized.

0:17:23.920 --> 0:17:28.200
<v Speaker 2>So not a cdo a different type of CLO. Well.

0:17:28.240 --> 0:17:31.359
<v Speaker 2>Mark Rohan said that basically the idea that they have

0:17:31.480 --> 0:17:33.639
<v Speaker 2>behind a MAPS is that it takes the benefits of

0:17:33.680 --> 0:17:37.080
<v Speaker 2>clos and adds greater numbers of issuers, less leverage, a

0:17:37.160 --> 0:17:41.800
<v Speaker 2>better structure for investors. So they prefer the CLO comparison.

0:17:43.560 --> 0:17:45.480
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I mean, I say, is it the future of

0:17:45.480 --> 0:17:50.840
<v Speaker 1>private credit? Yes? I feel like people in the credit

0:17:50.880 --> 0:17:54.840
<v Speaker 1>world would have some complaints about the effect of clos

0:17:54.880 --> 0:17:58.040
<v Speaker 1>on the credit You know, like in the olden days,

0:17:58.200 --> 0:18:01.679
<v Speaker 1>banks made loans and they the loans to maturity. Then

0:18:01.720 --> 0:18:03.800
<v Speaker 1>you had a relationship with your bank and if you

0:18:03.880 --> 0:18:05.640
<v Speaker 1>needed to restructure the loan, you went to the bank

0:18:05.680 --> 0:18:09.760
<v Speaker 1>and talked about it and it was all very sort

0:18:09.760 --> 0:18:12.119
<v Speaker 1>of sleepy. And now the thing that it's called a

0:18:12.160 --> 0:18:14.840
<v Speaker 1>bank loan or broadly syndicated loan is mostly owned by

0:18:14.840 --> 0:18:17.840
<v Speaker 1>clos and it trades more liquidly and you have less

0:18:17.840 --> 0:18:21.040
<v Speaker 1>of a relationship, and you know, the clos are not

0:18:21.600 --> 0:18:23.480
<v Speaker 1>the same sort of credit analysts as the banks and

0:18:23.520 --> 0:18:28.440
<v Speaker 1>all this stuff. And private credit two years ago would

0:18:28.440 --> 0:18:30.960
<v Speaker 1>be like, we're long term relationship holders, and like the

0:18:31.040 --> 0:18:32.760
<v Speaker 1>people making the loan are going to hold the loan

0:18:32.800 --> 0:18:35.120
<v Speaker 1>and if you need to restructure, you'll come to talk

0:18:35.160 --> 0:18:36.800
<v Speaker 1>to one person, you know. And now we're going to

0:18:38.280 --> 0:18:40.600
<v Speaker 1>Colo is a private credit and that market will evolve

0:18:40.600 --> 0:18:41.680
<v Speaker 1>the way the bank line market does.

0:18:41.840 --> 0:18:44.480
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. I mean it feels like Apollo in particular is

0:18:44.560 --> 0:18:46.920
<v Speaker 2>driving a lot of this shifting conversation.

0:18:47.000 --> 0:18:47.719
<v Speaker 1>I want to trade it.

0:18:47.880 --> 0:18:52.520
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, daily pricing it's coming by September anti September. Yeah,

0:18:52.640 --> 0:18:53.520
<v Speaker 2>according to Apollo.

0:18:53.720 --> 0:18:56.160
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, you send me an article that Pimco I did.

0:18:57.520 --> 0:19:01.600
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, Pimco took some umbrage with that. Basically, an analyst

0:19:01.640 --> 0:19:04.720
<v Speaker 2>over there said that more frequent pricing is not more

0:19:04.760 --> 0:19:09.680
<v Speaker 2>accurate pricing, so some skepticism there over. Okay, there's daily prices,

0:19:09.680 --> 0:19:10.680
<v Speaker 2>but are they accurate?

0:19:11.000 --> 0:19:14.040
<v Speaker 1>Okay, I don't know, but like two points. One point

0:19:14.119 --> 0:19:17.399
<v Speaker 1>is if you are in the business of providing daily pricing,

0:19:17.440 --> 0:19:19.879
<v Speaker 1>then you have a model. I think you have to

0:19:20.000 --> 0:19:23.600
<v Speaker 1>have a model that updates daily based on something. So

0:19:23.720 --> 0:19:26.439
<v Speaker 1>one possibility is that your model updates daily based on

0:19:26.560 --> 0:19:33.479
<v Speaker 1>public market data, right, Like, if you know public market

0:19:33.720 --> 0:19:36.840
<v Speaker 1>DOUBLEB spreads move out by five basis points, then you

0:19:36.880 --> 0:19:39.280
<v Speaker 1>move your spreads out by five basis plans, right Like. Otherwise,

0:19:39.320 --> 0:19:42.000
<v Speaker 1>like if you're not actually changing things day to day,

0:19:42.359 --> 0:19:45.840
<v Speaker 1>then you're not providing real daily pricing. And so if

0:19:45.880 --> 0:19:48.480
<v Speaker 1>you're doing that, like that's something, right, Like it's introducing

0:19:48.920 --> 0:19:53.240
<v Speaker 1>some public market volatility comps to private credit and so

0:19:53.359 --> 0:19:57.480
<v Speaker 1>like you're getting some possible indication because there is a

0:19:57.520 --> 0:19:59.840
<v Speaker 1>link between these markets. You're getting some possible into ca

0:20:00.240 --> 0:20:03.480
<v Speaker 1>of what is actually happening in your birthflete. But also

0:20:04.040 --> 0:20:05.720
<v Speaker 1>I think this is all fake. And like the reason

0:20:05.840 --> 0:20:08.040
<v Speaker 1>Apollo wants to do daily pricing is because they want

0:20:08.080 --> 0:20:09.920
<v Speaker 1>to set up a trading desk where they'll actually trade

0:20:09.960 --> 0:20:12.520
<v Speaker 1>the stuff then get real daily marks. Yeah, I think

0:20:12.520 --> 0:20:14.520
<v Speaker 1>that's the future of this, right, And so I think

0:20:14.880 --> 0:20:16.840
<v Speaker 1>daily pricing is a way to nudge everyone in the

0:20:17.200 --> 0:20:19.959
<v Speaker 1>direction of daily trading. And if you're doing that, then

0:20:20.000 --> 0:20:21.680
<v Speaker 1>the prices are, you know, more or less real.

0:20:21.920 --> 0:20:24.920
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. Well, PIMCO kind of gets there in this note.

0:20:24.960 --> 0:20:27.040
<v Speaker 2>And first of all, they never say Apollo by name,

0:20:27.080 --> 0:20:29.399
<v Speaker 2>but you know, it came out in reaction to that news.

0:20:29.840 --> 0:20:33.560
<v Speaker 2>There's an incremental fix that PIMCO proposes, which is to

0:20:33.760 --> 0:20:38.120
<v Speaker 2>rely more on third party validation evaluations. The second, more

0:20:38.280 --> 0:20:42.520
<v Speaker 2>ambitious way to address this is basically to have a

0:20:42.560 --> 0:20:46.320
<v Speaker 2>more functional and transparent secondary market for private credit assets.

0:20:46.960 --> 0:20:50.600
<v Speaker 2>Let's just yeah, so Paula would agree with that.

0:20:51.280 --> 0:20:53.600
<v Speaker 1>So they're not going to provide daily marks for like

0:20:53.680 --> 0:20:54.960
<v Speaker 1>ten years without ever trading it.

0:20:55.080 --> 0:20:58.320
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I'm going to trade it. Yeah the hope. So

0:20:58.880 --> 0:21:01.480
<v Speaker 2>Apollo and Co. They can live in harmony here.

0:21:01.760 --> 0:21:02.119
<v Speaker 1>Sure.

0:21:18.000 --> 0:21:22.440
<v Speaker 2>You know what isn't harmony.

0:21:22.119 --> 0:21:26.280
<v Speaker 1>The big AI companies and the people selling shares of

0:21:26.320 --> 0:21:27.840
<v Speaker 1>their stock on the secondary market.

0:21:28.040 --> 0:21:32.520
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. Anthropic in particular, Anthropic name names in their blog post,

0:21:32.560 --> 0:21:33.440
<v Speaker 2>which I thought was cool.

0:21:33.560 --> 0:21:36.200
<v Speaker 1>The actual update histories of these webages is a little

0:21:36.200 --> 0:21:38.119
<v Speaker 1>bit obscure to me, but I think the point is

0:21:38.119 --> 0:21:43.240
<v Speaker 1>that now both Anthropic and Open AI have websites saying Basically,

0:21:44.040 --> 0:21:46.760
<v Speaker 1>our stock has transfer restructions. If someone is coming to

0:21:46.800 --> 0:21:50.080
<v Speaker 1>you and saying that they'll sell you stock or that

0:21:50.119 --> 0:21:52.640
<v Speaker 1>they own our stock in an SPV, or that they'll

0:21:52.680 --> 0:21:55.320
<v Speaker 1>sell you a stock in a forward agreement, call the

0:21:56.040 --> 0:22:01.560
<v Speaker 1>call the police, because that's all fake and void. Yeah,

0:22:01.600 --> 0:22:05.560
<v Speaker 1>and that like caused a dostir because everybody on Earth

0:22:05.640 --> 0:22:10.880
<v Speaker 1>owns some Anthropic stock through an SPV orly and if

0:22:10.920 --> 0:22:13.399
<v Speaker 1>they're serious about those well being void, then that is

0:22:13.880 --> 0:22:14.959
<v Speaker 1>going to create some drama.

0:22:15.160 --> 0:22:17.399
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it did say on an anthropics blog posts that

0:22:17.920 --> 0:22:21.639
<v Speaker 2>literally get in contact with your securities regulator if someone

0:22:21.680 --> 0:22:24.840
<v Speaker 2>approaches you and trying to call the sec Yeah.

0:22:25.359 --> 0:22:27.560
<v Speaker 1>Right, this is a long running thing we've talked about

0:22:27.920 --> 0:22:31.879
<v Speaker 1>d x y Z that yeahs tech one who caught

0:22:31.880 --> 0:22:34.639
<v Speaker 1>the ire of Stripe a couple of years ago this

0:22:34.720 --> 0:22:37.080
<v Speaker 1>sort of thing. Basically, like most of the big tech

0:22:37.080 --> 0:22:40.640
<v Speaker 1>companies have transfer restrictions on their stock saying if you,

0:22:40.640 --> 0:22:42.320
<v Speaker 1>you know, are an employee or an investor in your

0:22:42.320 --> 0:22:45.320
<v Speaker 1>own stock, you can't sell it without telling the company,

0:22:45.359 --> 0:22:48.040
<v Speaker 1>maybe even the company. I write a first refusal, getting

0:22:48.080 --> 0:22:52.240
<v Speaker 1>permission from the company. And my guess is that all

0:22:52.280 --> 0:22:55.240
<v Speaker 1>of these trans a restrictions say you also can't sell

0:22:55.280 --> 0:22:58.120
<v Speaker 1>it in a forward contract, where you know forward contract

0:22:58.160 --> 0:23:00.760
<v Speaker 1>is you give me money, now, I promise that when

0:23:00.800 --> 0:23:03.800
<v Speaker 1>the company goes public, I'll delivery of the stock, which

0:23:03.800 --> 0:23:07.479
<v Speaker 1>seems to get around the transferreratations with no company believes that.

0:23:07.520 --> 0:23:09.640
<v Speaker 1>The companies will say you can't sell the stock even

0:23:09.640 --> 0:23:12.520
<v Speaker 1>in a forward contract, but then people do sell it

0:23:12.560 --> 0:23:14.119
<v Speaker 1>in the forward contract, thinking well, you know, when the

0:23:14.119 --> 0:23:16.040
<v Speaker 1>company was public, all deliver the stock. They won't be

0:23:16.040 --> 0:23:21.200
<v Speaker 1>transfer restricted them, so who's harmed at And these companies

0:23:21.760 --> 0:23:24.520
<v Speaker 1>assert that if you do that, then the transfer is

0:23:24.520 --> 0:23:27.800
<v Speaker 1>invalid and the company can take the stock back. And

0:23:28.000 --> 0:23:32.600
<v Speaker 1>I'm not aware of high profile examples of this ever

0:23:32.960 --> 0:23:35.399
<v Speaker 1>being actually fought over. Yeah, because the goal is to

0:23:35.400 --> 0:23:37.720
<v Speaker 1>stop them from doing it now. But once they go public,

0:23:38.000 --> 0:23:39.680
<v Speaker 1>what they're going to see it take the stock bag.

0:23:40.920 --> 0:23:43.040
<v Speaker 1>But they'll say they will.

0:23:43.760 --> 0:23:45.840
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. Also, I mean, we've talked a lot about like

0:23:46.320 --> 0:23:49.200
<v Speaker 2>SpaceX in SPVs, but you know, there's a lot of

0:23:49.800 --> 0:23:54.080
<v Speaker 2>purported exposure to open AI, et cetera in SPVs, So

0:23:55.080 --> 0:23:56.639
<v Speaker 2>I mean there would be a lot of cleaning up

0:23:56.640 --> 0:23:57.399
<v Speaker 2>to do, and I don't know.

0:23:57.600 --> 0:24:00.399
<v Speaker 1>Right on the one hand, it is probably not like

0:24:01.080 --> 0:24:04.200
<v Speaker 1>super in the best interests of open AI or Anthropic

0:24:04.640 --> 0:24:08.760
<v Speaker 1>to go around suing to take backstock from shareholders once

0:24:08.760 --> 0:24:10.720
<v Speaker 1>they go public, Like they'll have bigger fish to fry

0:24:10.760 --> 0:24:13.280
<v Speaker 1>once they go Yeah. On the other hand, there's like

0:24:13.680 --> 0:24:16.880
<v Speaker 1>tens of billions of dollars of stock that was invalidly transferred.

0:24:16.920 --> 0:24:18.840
<v Speaker 1>Then it's oh, yeah, we'll take back tens of billions

0:24:18.880 --> 0:24:21.800
<v Speaker 1>of dollars of you know, dilution for our shareholders by

0:24:22.920 --> 0:24:25.600
<v Speaker 1>suing these dentists who bought in an SPV. Like, I

0:24:25.600 --> 0:24:26.640
<v Speaker 1>don't know, I don't know.

0:24:26.560 --> 0:24:30.679
<v Speaker 2>You know, I do tempted those frisky dentists. Do you

0:24:30.680 --> 0:24:32.400
<v Speaker 2>think this is the end of it? That they just

0:24:32.640 --> 0:24:37.760
<v Speaker 2>make scary blog posts and sort of hope that they're discouraging. Yeah,

0:24:38.160 --> 0:24:39.840
<v Speaker 2>this is it. This is it, right.

0:24:39.920 --> 0:24:41.320
<v Speaker 1>I don't think they're going to sue, but they might.

0:24:41.400 --> 0:24:43.439
<v Speaker 1>And they're not legal advice, not investing advice.

0:24:43.640 --> 0:24:47.360
<v Speaker 2>I know. Again, Anthropic did name names in their blog posts.

0:24:47.080 --> 0:24:48.520
<v Speaker 1>Right, some of which are like, you know, kind of

0:24:48.520 --> 0:24:49.480
<v Speaker 1>big secondary Yeah.

0:24:49.520 --> 0:24:52.760
<v Speaker 2>Forge for example. Hive is also their open door. The

0:24:52.800 --> 0:24:54.240
<v Speaker 2>list goes on. Yeah.

0:24:54.359 --> 0:24:56.119
<v Speaker 1>So one thing they're saying is if someone writes a

0:24:56.160 --> 0:24:58.959
<v Speaker 1>hard contract on Anthropic or open I shares that they

0:24:59.000 --> 0:25:01.960
<v Speaker 1>own that might be invalid and we might take it

0:25:02.040 --> 0:25:04.440
<v Speaker 1>back from you, and so you shouldn't buy that forward.

0:25:04.520 --> 0:25:06.920
<v Speaker 1>But another thing they're saying is they might be lying.

0:25:07.520 --> 0:25:09.479
<v Speaker 1>And those things do go together, right, like if you're

0:25:09.520 --> 0:25:11.560
<v Speaker 1>trying to get around the transfer restrictions, like you might

0:25:11.600 --> 0:25:13.800
<v Speaker 1>also be lying about owning this thought in the first place.

0:25:14.400 --> 0:25:16.840
<v Speaker 1>The thing is not quite right because in fact, there

0:25:16.920 --> 0:25:18.880
<v Speaker 1>seems to be a norm of kind of like trying

0:25:18.880 --> 0:25:21.680
<v Speaker 1>to get around the transfer restrictions. But yeah, I mean

0:25:21.800 --> 0:25:26.640
<v Speaker 1>you can see why someone willing to violate their contract

0:25:26.720 --> 0:25:29.480
<v Speaker 1>might also be willing to lie about owning the shows.

0:25:29.520 --> 0:25:33.880
<v Speaker 2>I could see the spiritual similarities between those two urges. Yeah,

0:25:33.920 --> 0:25:36.200
<v Speaker 2>I haven't checked the price of our friend Destiny Tech.

0:25:36.480 --> 0:25:40.200
<v Speaker 1>I have either continues to last trade it well above

0:25:40.280 --> 0:25:41.080
<v Speaker 1>matt out the value.

0:25:41.080 --> 0:25:44.480
<v Speaker 2>Do you want to tell you about human assembly lines? Yeah?

0:25:44.560 --> 0:25:47.359
<v Speaker 2>I just wanted to give a shout out probably the

0:25:47.440 --> 0:25:50.399
<v Speaker 2>best headline I saw this week. Goldman says banks quote

0:25:50.440 --> 0:25:54.200
<v Speaker 2>human assembly lines, face automation. That was a real thing

0:25:54.240 --> 0:25:57.120
<v Speaker 2>that John Waldron said. He is the president and chief

0:25:57.160 --> 0:26:00.919
<v Speaker 2>operating officer over at Goldman, giving an interview on c saying,

0:26:01.359 --> 0:26:04.280
<v Speaker 2>I often describe Goldman sacks as a human assembly line,

0:26:04.520 --> 0:26:05.560
<v Speaker 2>which is amazing.

0:26:05.920 --> 0:26:09.480
<v Speaker 1>Right, so like Henry Ford had an assembly line where

0:26:09.880 --> 0:26:13.800
<v Speaker 1>cars were assembled by humans. Yeah, does John Waldrin mean

0:26:15.200 --> 0:26:17.280
<v Speaker 1>M and A Deals are assembled by humans on an

0:26:17.320 --> 0:26:21.680
<v Speaker 1>assembly line? Or yeah, I mean humans are assembled at Goldvin,

0:26:22.200 --> 0:26:25.040
<v Speaker 1>which as a Goldman alum. Yeah, I felt a little

0:26:25.040 --> 0:26:27.680
<v Speaker 1>bit like I was being assembled on an assembly.

0:26:27.400 --> 0:26:29.480
<v Speaker 2>Right, they were building your personality.

0:26:30.480 --> 0:26:33.560
<v Speaker 1>But mostly I think she means deals for being assembled

0:26:33.560 --> 0:26:35.800
<v Speaker 1>on the assembly line, and some of the some of

0:26:35.800 --> 0:26:37.879
<v Speaker 1>that assembly line will not be taken over by robots.

0:26:38.280 --> 0:26:41.000
<v Speaker 2>It's pretty great. This is another interview where I didn't

0:26:41.040 --> 0:26:43.400
<v Speaker 2>watch it. I just read it without any context.

0:26:43.840 --> 0:26:46.679
<v Speaker 1>I don't think he meant human assembly lines in the

0:26:46.840 --> 0:26:48.360
<v Speaker 1>like dystrophia and yeah.

0:26:48.800 --> 0:26:50.879
<v Speaker 2>Like here's here's a leg we're going to connect it

0:26:50.920 --> 0:26:51.440
<v Speaker 2>to appelvi.

0:26:52.240 --> 0:26:53.480
<v Speaker 1>But that is a little bit working.

0:26:53.680 --> 0:26:57.800
<v Speaker 2>But even in the more sane reading where it's humans

0:26:57.840 --> 0:27:01.760
<v Speaker 2>working an assembly line, it's pretty great. Yes it is.

0:27:01.840 --> 0:27:03.760
<v Speaker 2>We're going to replace all these humans with AI.

0:27:04.119 --> 0:27:06.120
<v Speaker 1>No, it's going to be like a car assembly line.

0:27:06.119 --> 0:27:10.359
<v Speaker 1>Those they'll be like, you know, humans with like specialized

0:27:10.400 --> 0:27:14.800
<v Speaker 1>technical skills who now have a relatively physically undemanding job

0:27:14.840 --> 0:27:17.480
<v Speaker 1>because the robots are welding the car together, and the

0:27:17.560 --> 0:27:20.640
<v Speaker 1>humans are doing complex programming to make the robots work.

0:27:20.680 --> 0:27:22.200
<v Speaker 2>They're putting the computer in the car.

0:27:22.440 --> 0:27:26.760
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, you know, I mean right, it's not definitely implies

0:27:26.760 --> 0:27:28.640
<v Speaker 1>that some jobs will be lost on the example. Yeah,

0:27:28.720 --> 0:27:29.320
<v Speaker 1>let's be clear.

0:27:29.560 --> 0:27:32.399
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, you let me read the rest of the quote. Okay.

0:27:32.520 --> 0:27:35.320
<v Speaker 2>He says, if you think about what's happened in manufacturing,

0:27:35.640 --> 0:27:38.560
<v Speaker 2>it's become much more robotic, it's become much more automated.

0:27:38.640 --> 0:27:40.720
<v Speaker 2>The banks really haven't been on that journey to the

0:27:40.720 --> 0:27:41.359
<v Speaker 2>same extent.

0:27:42.000 --> 0:27:44.560
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I do think that when you think about the

0:27:44.600 --> 0:27:46.600
<v Speaker 1>activities of an investment bank, there's a lot of like

0:27:46.720 --> 0:27:50.880
<v Speaker 1>kind of robotic stuff that gets done by twenty three

0:27:50.960 --> 0:27:54.560
<v Speaker 1>year olds with ivy league degrees, and like having robots

0:27:54.600 --> 0:27:58.439
<v Speaker 1>do some of that is probably like both efficient and

0:27:58.480 --> 0:28:00.399
<v Speaker 1>a win for society and also the probably nice for

0:28:00.440 --> 0:28:01.720
<v Speaker 1>those twenty three year olds who don't have to do

0:28:01.800 --> 0:28:02.679
<v Speaker 1>the robotics stuff.

0:28:03.119 --> 0:28:04.800
<v Speaker 2>But what are they going to make sure something want.

0:28:04.680 --> 0:28:07.040
<v Speaker 1>To not be hired? Yeah, robotic stuff.

0:28:07.080 --> 0:28:10.880
<v Speaker 2>Well. Waldron also did say I'm not sure dynamically how

0:28:10.920 --> 0:28:12.560
<v Speaker 2>the overall headcount will change.

0:28:13.080 --> 0:28:14.960
<v Speaker 1>No one's ever sure, because this is like the this

0:28:15.040 --> 0:28:17.359
<v Speaker 1>is like the whole thing, right, Like a lot of

0:28:18.160 --> 0:28:21.479
<v Speaker 1>technological innovations have the effect of increasing the amount of

0:28:21.520 --> 0:28:23.600
<v Speaker 1>work that the firm can do, and so like you

0:28:23.640 --> 0:28:25.879
<v Speaker 1>actually end up hiring more people. Yeah, that's the story

0:28:25.880 --> 0:28:29.800
<v Speaker 1>of Excel and right, what would be the story of AI.

0:28:29.920 --> 0:28:33.200
<v Speaker 1>I think I don't know, there's reasonably to be pessimistic.

0:28:33.240 --> 0:28:36.320
<v Speaker 2>But yeah, but I don't know. They might just do.

0:28:36.359 --> 0:28:39.280
<v Speaker 1>Many more deals on their robotic sized assembly line. It's

0:28:39.720 --> 0:28:42.440
<v Speaker 1>the twenty three year old analysts will be like providing

0:28:42.760 --> 0:28:47.000
<v Speaker 1>high powered oversight of twenty robots and it'll all be wonderful.

0:28:47.120 --> 0:28:49.480
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, the robot overlord.

0:28:50.480 --> 0:28:52.680
<v Speaker 1>Or the robots will be the overload.

0:28:52.760 --> 0:28:56.440
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, the same. I could see it both ways. Well

0:28:56.480 --> 0:28:58.600
<v Speaker 2>to that point. Thank you for all the book recommendations.

0:28:58.640 --> 0:28:59.080
<v Speaker 2>We did good.

0:28:59.120 --> 0:29:03.760
<v Speaker 1>Oh yeah we have the book. Yeah as a as

0:29:03.800 --> 0:29:06.200
<v Speaker 1>an economist fantasy novel.

0:29:06.560 --> 0:29:06.960
<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

0:29:07.360 --> 0:29:09.160
<v Speaker 1>Someone so probably not what it sounds.

0:29:09.400 --> 0:29:12.160
<v Speaker 2>Someone sent that over. I am going on a flight

0:29:12.280 --> 0:29:14.880
<v Speaker 2>because I'm off next week. So, by the way, if

0:29:14.920 --> 0:29:17.160
<v Speaker 2>you're still listening, there won't be a podcast next week.

0:29:17.240 --> 0:29:18.320
<v Speaker 1>It is dark next week.

0:29:18.800 --> 0:29:21.440
<v Speaker 2>Yeah great, right, I think terrific.

0:29:23.520 --> 0:29:34.280
<v Speaker 1>I won't tells me anything, man, And that was the

0:29:34.280 --> 0:29:35.360
<v Speaker 1>money Stuff Podcast.

0:29:35.640 --> 0:29:37.760
<v Speaker 2>I'm Matt Levine and I'm Katie Greifeld.

0:29:38.000 --> 0:29:40.160
<v Speaker 1>You can find my work by subscribing to The Money

0:29:40.160 --> 0:29:42.680
<v Speaker 1>Stuff Newletter on Bloomberg dot com.

0:29:42.480 --> 0:29:44.920
<v Speaker 2>And you can find me on Bloomberg TV every day

0:29:44.960 --> 0:29:47.880
<v Speaker 2>on the Clothes between three and five pm Eastern.

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0:30:02.440 --> 0:30:06.280
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0:30:06.320 --> 0:30:08.320
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0:30:08.880 --> 0:30:11.120
<v Speaker 2>Our theme music was composed by Blake Maples.

0:30:11.840 --> 0:30:15.240
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0:30:15.240 --> 0:30:17.760
<v Speaker 1>The Money Stuff Podcast. We'll be back next week with

0:30:17.920 --> 0:30:18.560
<v Speaker 1>more stuff.