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Speaker 2: We are back in Washington, back to reality with breaking news.
Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew here in the nation's capital and glad
Speaker 2: you're with us on the Monday edition of Sound On.
Speaker 2: We just heard officially from the White House that we
Speaker 2: have a deal to extend the pause in Israel. It
Speaker 2: will result in more hostages being released, two more days
Speaker 2: for twenty hostages. That's just coming together in the last
Speaker 2: hour or so. And I want to bring in Jordan
Speaker 2: Fabian right now, White House correspondent at Bloomberg Jordan. This
Speaker 2: was the hope we heard from Joe Biden over the weekend,
Speaker 2: who said, you know, we've got this initial four day plan.
Speaker 2: The hope was to extend it and maybe get additional hostages.
Speaker 2: It's not a coincidence that we have twenty hostages in
Speaker 2: this case. There was an agreement that called for some
Speaker 2: structure here for each day I believe reached two days,
Speaker 2: it was ten hostages. Could this just keep going on indefinitely.
Speaker 3: I think President Joe Biden and the US would love
Speaker 3: to see that. Israel has still made it clear that
Speaker 3: after this pause, after there are hostages released, that they
Speaker 3: plan to continue their military campaign against Hamas and Gaza.
Speaker 3: And so we haven't heard any indication so far that
Speaker 3: they plan to change those plans. But the longer this
Speaker 3: goes on, I think the US hopes, the more time
Speaker 3: they have to maybe talk Israel down, maybe downsize that
Speaker 3: continued defensive once this is over.
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is something that came up on Sunday Morning television.
Speaker 2: Mike Turner, who chairs the House Intelligence Committee, a Republican,
Speaker 2: was concerned about the lack of detail that the administration had,
Speaker 2: or at least was making public about the hostages. Do
Speaker 2: you have a sense of whether the White House knows
Speaker 2: where they are?
Speaker 3: I think you heard John Kirby in the briefing today
Speaker 3: admit that they don't really have a ton of details
Speaker 3: about the whereabouts, particularly of the remaining Americans who are
Speaker 3: being held. Part of the complication of this is that
Speaker 3: you're dealing with Hamas, which is a group whose leadership
Speaker 3: is deep underground in Gaza. All of this is being
Speaker 3: done through an intermediary in cutter and so they're not
Speaker 3: the two parties are not talking directly. The hostages are
Speaker 3: also being held not just by Hamas but by other
Speaker 3: groups like Palestinine Islamic hi Had, who may have moved
Speaker 3: them around to different locations.
Speaker 2: So it's a lot of this is a leap of faith.
Speaker 3: A lot of this is not like, you know, information
Speaker 3: like proof of life well being is not really readily available.
Speaker 3: But what we've seen so far over the last few
Speaker 3: days is that the releases have taken place, the hostages
Speaker 3: are getting back, So I think the hope is that
Speaker 3: they can continue to do.
Speaker 2: That while you're still with US Jordan. The matter of
Speaker 2: Israeli funding is obviously a real one, and it's something
Speaker 2: that we're going to be talking about quite a bit
Speaker 2: as lawmakers return to Washington. There are questions though about
Speaker 2: what form it might take. Chris Murphy, the Senator, a
Speaker 2: Democrat from Connecticut, suggested over the weekend that essentially humanitarian
Speaker 2: strings would be attached, that it would be based on
Speaker 2: making good on international humanitarian law. Knowing that there have
Speaker 2: been a number of an extraordinary number of Palestinian civilians
Speaker 2: who have been killed in this conflict. Is that something
Speaker 2: that the White House is open to.
Speaker 3: President Biden said on Friday that he would look at
Speaker 3: ways of conditioning this aid. That's a shift before in
Speaker 3: the beginning, when this was first proposed, said you know,
Speaker 3: we're going to help Israel, no strings attached. But since then,
Speaker 3: this offensive has taken place in Gaza, a lot of
Speaker 3: palace sittings have died, whole cities have been leveled, and
Speaker 3: so the mood has turned among Democrats. They want to
Speaker 3: see some concessions here. But then the calculus gets tough
Speaker 3: because Republicans don't want to see concessions. There's also the
Speaker 3: broader disagreements over Ukraine and immigration that could subsume this
Speaker 3: Israel issue. So the at the passing Israel Aid is
Speaker 3: a lot harder than it was just a month ago,
Speaker 3: Isn't that?
Speaker 2: For sure? It does seem like it's kind of out
Speaker 2: of the White House's hands at this point the President
Speaker 2: needs to wait to hear from leaders on the hill.
Speaker 2: Is that the case.
Speaker 3: Reading between the lines of what the President has said,
Speaker 3: I think he's saying, look, if you guys have a
Speaker 3: proposal for conditioning this AID, let's see it right into law.
Speaker 3: And we can see if we can get a pass,
Speaker 3: but I don't see the President acting unilaterally to do that.
Speaker 3: He's looking to Congress, So as you said, yes, it's
Speaker 3: now in lawmaker's hands.
Speaker 2: Hope had a great holiday. It's good to see you.
Speaker 2: Thank you as always. Jordan Fabian covering the White House
Speaker 2: for us here at Bloomberg, getting things started here on
Speaker 2: the Monday after. As we mentioned, news is breaking here
Speaker 2: and we're also watching the price of oil, remembering great
Speaker 2: concerns that so many people had about what might happen
Speaker 2: to energy prices if the war between Israel and Hamas
Speaker 2: somehow grew into a second or third front. We've seen
Speaker 2: the opposite happen. Oil prices have in fact come down
Speaker 2: in a bit of relief over that, but also with
Speaker 2: of course supply and demand issues really driving prices here,
Speaker 2: a slowing economy in China and expected slow down here
Speaker 2: in the US. So it's something that we wanted to
Speaker 2: talk to Bob McNally about it Rapidan Energy, because we
Speaker 2: do have an OPEC meeting that's coming up this week
Speaker 2: and oil ministers will likely be reacting to everything that
Speaker 2: I just mentioned. Bob is with us right now of
Speaker 2: course Rapidan Energy, as I mentioned, former National Security Council
Speaker 2: Senior director for International Energy. You also spent some time
Speaker 2: in the White House, Bob, it's great to see. I
Speaker 2: hope you had a great holiday. We're looking at crude
Speaker 2: oil here and I'm looking at WTI at this point
Speaker 2: below seventy five dollars a barrel. The OPEC meeting is
Speaker 2: on Thursday. Is there anything that ministers will do? And
Speaker 2: I suspect you've got an answer to this to try
Speaker 2: to shore up prices going into winter.
Speaker 4: Hey, Joe, it's great to be with you. Yeah, you know,
Speaker 4: there is a little bit of sort of side business though,
Speaker 4: before we get to keeping a floor under prices. OPEK
Speaker 4: plus kind of set it up, set itself up for
Speaker 4: some discussions back in the summer when they said, look
Speaker 4: for a few countries in Africa, Nigeria and Gola, Congo,
Speaker 4: we're going to lower your quota starting in January. So
Speaker 4: even if we were here at a hundred dollars a barrel, Joe,
Speaker 4: there still is going to be some litigation going on
Speaker 4: about finalizing those lower quotas for some of those producers.
Speaker 4: Then you get EUAE, which got a bump, so there's that,
Speaker 4: and that's largely why we delayed, why we didn't have
Speaker 4: the meeting of the OPECK plus meeting on Sunday and
Speaker 4: now it's going to be Thursday. I think it's largely
Speaker 4: because of that, let's call it side business. But then
Speaker 4: comes the as you just described, oil price are a
Speaker 4: lot softer than they thought. Balances are softer. We didn't
Speaker 4: see the big inventory draws everyone expect in the third quarter,
Speaker 4: So now they have to decide whether to extend their
Speaker 4: voluntary cut, the Saudi voluntary cut, or even cut deeper,
Speaker 4: and Joe, I think chances are they will. They'll at
Speaker 4: least extend the current Saudi cut through the third first
Speaker 4: quarter of next year. OPEC plus remains in proactive, you know,
Speaker 4: a cautionary and preemptive mode, so that is our best case.
Speaker 4: I think odds favor some form of continued restraint on
Speaker 4: supply to keep prices from falling out of bed.
Speaker 2: Here, what does it mean if that's the case. If
Speaker 2: they do get some cuts here, and I know that
Speaker 2: the Saudis are asking others to lower their quotas to
Speaker 2: try to shore up prices, what could we see between
Speaker 2: now and the end of the year.
Speaker 5: Well.
Speaker 4: I think if we get a solid extension of the
Speaker 4: Saudi cut, at the very least an extension of the
Speaker 4: three hundred thousand barrel a day Russian restraint on exports,
Speaker 4: UAE may be asked to wait a bit before increasing
Speaker 4: its production as was promised in the summer. You know,
Speaker 4: that's additional restraint of a million and a half barrels
Speaker 4: a day. I think we'll see a rally. I hope
Speaker 4: we talk about geopolitical risk. I think it's a little
Speaker 4: too low. So I think between here and the end
Speaker 4: of the year, if we get the OPEC plus restraint,
Speaker 4: I think geopolitical risk is stewed higher. I think we
Speaker 4: can get a nice little rally here into year end.
Speaker 4: If they fail to cut, if they fail to signal
Speaker 4: the market there continued resolve, you know, oil prices could
Speaker 4: be heading south pretty fast.
Speaker 2: This is fascinating considering the fact that there's a hot
Speaker 2: war in the Middle East, Bob, and that's where we
Speaker 2: started the hour here talking about Israel Hamas and now
Speaker 2: what appears to be and in fact is an extended truce.
Speaker 2: We're going to get twenty more hostages out here. The
Speaker 2: headlines have been a bit better over the past couple
Speaker 2: of days, but we've seen massive destruction and continued fighting
Speaker 2: with an expectation that fighting will resume. I know we're
Speaker 2: not at war with Iran, but are you surprised to
Speaker 2: see oil prices continuing to sink in this environment?
Speaker 5: I am a little bit.
Speaker 4: I have to say, we don't. Our base case is
Speaker 4: not that this Gaza war will spread regionally, but it's
Speaker 4: not zero. And we look at options pricing and flat
Speaker 4: price and just talk to our clients. You get the
Speaker 4: impression there's zero risk of disruption, and it's not zero.
Speaker 4: It's at least thirty percent. I'm surprised at how many
Speaker 4: of our traders think that somehow Israel's not going to
Speaker 4: resume the war, that this truce will get extended, extended
Speaker 4: and become permanent. We're pretty sure once they've gotten all
Speaker 4: the hostages out they can they will go back to business,
Speaker 4: you know, and in Gaza, and we think, you know,
Speaker 4: the risk is not zero. And you see now we're
Speaker 4: boarding ships that the houties are seizing. We're starting to
Speaker 4: attack the United States and kill Iranian proxies that are
Speaker 4: attacking our troops. So you know, neither Tarun nor Washington
Speaker 4: wants to see a global conflict, but you can't always
Speaker 4: get what you want, and we think the cycle of
Speaker 4: violence is going to resume here when the truce is done.
Speaker 4: And so another thing Joe surprising that the Biden administration,
Speaker 4: I would say, to its credit, is not only filling
Speaker 4: the spr amiss two wars going on, but also I
Speaker 4: think is getting ready to really crack down on cheating
Speaker 4: under the G seven price cap on Russian exports. They're
Speaker 4: willing to take more risk than they were this summer
Speaker 4: or before in restricting supplies in order to fill that
Speaker 4: spr and also make life a little more uncomfortable for
Speaker 4: Joe Biden. So rack that up there too as another
Speaker 4: bit of a man bite's dog story a little bit.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I'm glad you mentioned what's happening with the Hoothi's.
Speaker 2: We should let our listeners and viewers know what took
Speaker 2: place over the weekend. The USS Mason responded to a
Speaker 2: distress call off Yemen an attempted hijacking of a chemical
Speaker 2: tanker owned by an Israeli billionaire. They managed to pursue
Speaker 2: the attackers. They tried to get away and they were apprehended,
Speaker 2: but all the while two ballistic missiles were fired at
Speaker 2: the Mason from hoothy controlled Yemen. They landed about ten
Speaker 2: miles away. That could have ended very differently, Bob. And
Speaker 2: that's the kind of story you're talking about, isn't it.
Speaker 4: Absolutely. You know, we've had about eighty attacks and rising
Speaker 4: on US forces. So far, god, thanks to God, we
Speaker 4: haven't had anyone killed. But you know, a lot of
Speaker 4: folks looked at the Iranian Foreign Minister when he came
Speaker 4: out and said, look, we don't want this war to
Speaker 4: go regional. Fine, but then they didn't pay attention to
Speaker 4: his next sentence when he said, but if Israel continues
Speaker 4: as a tax and gaza, it will become inevitable. And
Speaker 4: I think folks are just whistling past the graveyard a
Speaker 4: little bit about geopolitical risk in the Middle East.
Speaker 2: It's not zero. We learned today that the President will
Speaker 2: not attend COP twenty eighth this week, the big UN
Speaker 2: Climate Summit. I don't know if that was on your radar.
Speaker 2: Apparently John Kerry is going to go in his place.
Speaker 2: But that's of course an organization and an event that
Speaker 2: wants to put quotas to transition to green energy in
Speaker 2: a more aggressive place than they are.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 2: What does it tell you about just the menu of
Speaker 2: options here and the priorities that this president is facing
Speaker 2: that he decided not to go.
Speaker 4: You know, it must have been a difficult decision for
Speaker 4: him because ever since the Biden administration approved the Willow
Speaker 4: Project back in the spring in Alaska, they have been
Speaker 4: losing you see it in the polls, losing a lot
Speaker 4: of you young, young voter support. Really under pressure, and
Speaker 4: that's why it cracked down a little bit more. They're
Speaker 4: trying to get tighter on the environment. So I have
Speaker 4: to say I was a little bit surprised to see
Speaker 4: the President not going there and waving the flag. I
Speaker 4: think there is a concern that maybe there's not going
Speaker 4: to be some very good deliverables there. They're talking about
Speaker 4: restraint on methane, trying to get together with China on
Speaker 4: a renewable target, but really there's not a lot of
Speaker 4: a substance there, and so maybe he's concerned about going
Speaker 4: to a kind of a substance free meeting. There's also
Speaker 4: controversy because the COP twenty eight, after all, is being
Speaker 4: hosted by one of the world's largest oil producers and
Speaker 4: exporters oil and gas, and there's controversy there, but a
Speaker 4: bit surprising because he's underwater with his young voters, and
Speaker 4: I would think he'd want to shore up his green
Speaker 4: conventions by going that's.
Speaker 2: A great point, Bob. It's good to talk to you.
Speaker 2: I appreciate your joining today. Bob McNally at Rapidan Energy
Speaker 2: where he's president, also former National Security Council Senior Director
Speaker 2: for International Energy and a unique perspective, which is why
Speaker 2: we talked to Bob frequently here on Bloomberg's sound on,
Speaker 2: I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington want to assemble the panel.
Speaker 2: Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano are with us. We're going
Speaker 2: to have a lot of time for Rick and Jeannie
Speaker 2: throughout the hour here. But just to pick up on
Speaker 2: where Bob left off here, Genie, your thoughts on Joe
Speaker 2: Biden deciding to stay at home to manage this crisis
Speaker 2: and not attend the COP twenty eight summit in Dubai.
Speaker 2: Will he regret that?
Speaker 6: I don't know, ife'l gret it, regret it? But I
Speaker 6: too was as surprised as Bob, you know, just given
Speaker 6: the poll numbers as he mentioned, and We've talked about
Speaker 6: eighteen to thirty four year olds. He is suffering in
Speaker 6: that age range in the environment. Climate really really key
Speaker 6: issue for him for them, and of course the poll
Speaker 6: number is suffering now because of Israel. But you add
Speaker 6: those together. I was surprised he chose not to go,
Speaker 6: But the reality is he does have so much on
Speaker 6: his plate. It is really really possible that he just
Speaker 6: couldn't fit it into his schedule and he's going to
Speaker 6: find another way to shore up those green credentials.
Speaker 2: I can only assume that that is the case here. Rick.
Speaker 2: Would it also suggest that this truce could be extended again?
Speaker 5: Yeah?
Speaker 7: I think that obviously it's gotten extended, you know, just
Speaker 7: notified today for another couple of days. Hopefully many more
Speaker 7: hostages will be released that could be a positive impact
Speaker 7: on the presence numbers. But we also see in recent
Speaker 7: polling that the young people eighteen to thirty five are
Speaker 7: turning against the war in Israel, and so you couple
Speaker 7: that with the lack of commitment on climbing.
Speaker 2: That's where we'll pick up when we come back with
Speaker 2: Rick and Jeanie. This is Bloomberg.
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Speaker 2: Just don't call it a cease fire. The pause or
Speaker 2: the truce, if you will, is being extended. This is
Speaker 2: breaking news today from the White House. Thanks for joining us.
Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. Welcome to the fastest show
Speaker 2: in politics. It's been a couple of days. We've got
Speaker 2: a lot to talk about here. Having seen the release
Speaker 2: of dozens of hostages over the weekend, it appears there
Speaker 2: will now be twenty more in an extra two days
Speaker 2: of pausing, of course, in the fighting between Israel and Hamas.
Speaker 2: Here's Admiral John Kirby a short time ago at the
Speaker 2: White House.
Speaker 8: Humanitarian pause has already brought a halt of the fighting,
Speaker 8: together with a surge of humanitarian assistance. Now, in order
Speaker 8: to extend the pause, Hamas has committed to releasing another
Speaker 8: twenty women and children over the next two days. We would,
Speaker 8: of course hope to see the pause extended further, and
Speaker 8: that will depend upon Hamas continuing to release hostages.
Speaker 2: We reassemble our panel for their take on what's happening.
Speaker 2: Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano Bloomberg Politics contributors join us
Speaker 2: here for the balance of the hour, and Rick, I
Speaker 2: wonder your thoughts here as Joe Biden cancels his trip
Speaker 2: to Do Buy for COP twenty eight this week to
Speaker 2: focus on this matter. I know the Cutteries are helping
Speaker 2: to broker this deal, but the White House is taking
Speaker 2: some credit for making it happen. Is this the way
Speaker 2: it keeps on rolling? Another day, another extension?
Speaker 7: Yeah, I don't want to jinx it, but the point
Speaker 7: you made in the last segment that a pause doesn't
Speaker 7: necessarily go to a ceasefire, well, Joe Biden said for
Speaker 7: the Weekend Nantucket that he hopes the pause does result
Speaker 7: in a ceasefire, and of course, I think that's what
Speaker 7: everybody is hoping for right now, is some more tangible
Speaker 7: end of hostilities so that the balance of these hostages
Speaker 7: can be returned. Also thought that one of the things
Speaker 7: that was not well reported is that the Cuttery Foreign
Speaker 7: Minister Sheik Muhammad al Thani has made the point that
Speaker 7: part of the Hamas's issues with releasing prisoners is that
Speaker 7: there are a number of other terrorist groups operating within
Speaker 7: Gaza that hold hostages that are not directly under the
Speaker 7: control of Hamas, and so Hamas has to go fetch them.
Speaker 7: They don't know where they are, all of them. So
Speaker 7: it just shows you the level of disarray that exists
Speaker 7: in Gaza and how hard it's going to be to
Speaker 7: be able to secure the release of all these hostages.
Speaker 2: President just tweeted Genie I have consistently pressed her rights
Speaker 2: for a pause in the fighting to accelerate and expand
Speaker 2: the humanitarian assistance. This, of course is something we've talked
Speaker 2: about a lot, having seen a real shift and sentiment
Speaker 2: among young voters. To Rick's point earlier, eighteen to thirty
Speaker 2: five year olds are largely not happy with the stand
Speaker 2: that the administration has taken on this. This is why
Speaker 2: the President, of course, at least partly, was out over
Speaker 2: the weekend talking about the deal that had been put together.
Speaker 2: Let's remember the fact that a four year old girl,
Speaker 2: a dual US citizen, was freed over the weekend. You've
Speaker 2: probably heard about Abigail. Here's the president.
Speaker 9: A little girl named Abigail turned four years old. She
Speaker 9: spent her birthday that birthday and at least fifty days
Speaker 9: before that hell hostage by Amas. Today she's free, and
Speaker 9: Joe and I together as so many Americans, are praying
Speaker 9: for the fact that she is going to.
Speaker 5: Be all right.
Speaker 2: Abigail Eden is her name, Jeanie. To what extent does
Speaker 2: this revelation help Joe Biden here at home and making
Speaker 2: the case for why the administration is backing Israel?
Speaker 6: You know, I think that people have to look at
Speaker 6: what has happened over the last several days. I don't
Speaker 6: think in the aftermath of October seventh many of us
Speaker 6: would have thought that we would see these hostages coming home.
Speaker 6: They were obviously held too long, There's obviously a lot
Speaker 6: more there. But the Biden administration does, to a certain extent,
Speaker 6: feel and rightly so, vindicated that his approach, this hard
Speaker 6: driving private diplomacy, has gotten us to where we are
Speaker 6: just today, as you've been reporting, another two days in
Speaker 6: this pause that we all hope gets extended and gets
Speaker 6: everybody out, so they do feel they are headed in
Speaker 6: the right direction. With the pause, there has been enormous
Speaker 6: opportunity to get humanitarian aid into Gaza, much needed there,
Speaker 6: and so all of those factors for anybody who reflects
Speaker 6: seriously on this would help people, and particularly young people
Speaker 6: support what the Biden administration is doing, or at least
Speaker 6: it should. You know, we can't say how people will
Speaker 6: feel in the polls. The numbers are pretty stark for
Speaker 6: them right now. But you know, every once in a
Speaker 6: while a leader has got to say I'm doing the
Speaker 6: right thing regardless of the polls, and in this case,
Speaker 6: Joe Biden is and let the chips fall where they may.
Speaker 6: He has been supporting our ally Israel. He has been
Speaker 6: working hard to get aid in there and working hard
Speaker 6: to get hostage out. I don't know what more you
Speaker 6: could ask for. So to a certain extent, the polls
Speaker 6: have to be damned in this case, whether they're young
Speaker 6: people or not.
Speaker 2: Quite remarkable to see Elon Musk walking around in Israel today. Rick.
Speaker 2: This of course, is following as he says, you know,
Speaker 2: watch my actions, not my words. This follows a severe
Speaker 2: backlash on what we used to call Twitter, following what
Speaker 2: I think we can agree was an anti Semitic repost
Speaker 2: that he made. It's driven some major advertisers away and
Speaker 2: now suddenly, if you're with us on YouTube, you see
Speaker 2: this video of Elon Musk walking around with a kevlar
Speaker 2: vest side by side with Benjamin Nett Yahoo, pulling out
Speaker 2: his phone taking pictures of the carnage left behind as
Speaker 2: they tore him through the area. Here, he described the
Speaker 2: attack by Hamas as evil and jarring and says he
Speaker 2: wants to help help rebuild Gaza after the war. Following
Speaker 2: his conversation with Benjamin et Yahoo, who by the way,
Speaker 2: did not address the anti semitism on X, Rick, what
Speaker 2: in the world is going on here? Is this to
Speaker 2: prelude for a starlink deal in Israel?
Speaker 7: Well, I think it's more a hope that the platform
Speaker 7: X isn't actually being canceled by all their advertisers because
Speaker 7: of the anti Semitic retweet that re X that that
Speaker 7: got him into all this trouble. I mean, this is
Speaker 7: the most high profile apology tour that I've seen in
Speaker 7: a long time.
Speaker 2: You know, he's in the woodshed.
Speaker 7: Only BBN Yahoo can get him out of it, and
Speaker 7: maybe ultimately the untying of all of Bbie's relationships in
Speaker 7: the United States because of it. It's very difficult to
Speaker 7: see how this is anything in his favor. So doing
Speaker 7: a doing a piece of work for for Elon Musk
Speaker 7: by trying to get him out of self and posed exile,
Speaker 7: is going to be maybe his last act as Prime Minister.
Speaker 7: I can't see how this is actually going to do
Speaker 7: anything but put him under the political thumb of voters
Speaker 7: in Israel.
Speaker 2: Well, that would be quite a price for him to
Speaker 2: pay in this case, Genie. It is reported that the
Speaker 2: Israeli government is in talks with Musk about setting up
Speaker 2: Starlink as a backup to its own military communications. What
Speaker 2: do you make of this though, a rehabilitation tour in
Speaker 2: a hot war zone.
Speaker 6: Yeah, to stop advertiser bleeding. I mean it's really astounding.
Speaker 6: And you know, Elon Musk rightly so has really found
Speaker 6: himself caught after he retweeted that horrific anti Semitic posting,
Speaker 6: and you know, the advertisers rightly fled. He's also got
Speaker 6: this controversy going on about anti Semitism with media matters,
Speaker 6: so he's over there trying to shure that up. You know,
Speaker 6: I think really critically important as we think about Benjamin
Speaker 6: nettan Yahoo, is that the Biden administration doesn't stop here.
Speaker 6: I think what we heard from Bernie Sanders over the
Speaker 6: weekend you mentioned Chris Murphy, what we've heard from other
Speaker 6: folks is that this blank check rightly so cannot and
Speaker 6: should not continue, whether we attach it to. Obviously, you
Speaker 6: have to respond to an abide by international laws, certainly,
Speaker 6: but another thing it should be attached to is that
Speaker 6: bibe Net and Yahoo commits to no more settlements and
Speaker 6: he stops his rhetoric that continues to this moment about
Speaker 6: the fact that he will not work with the PLO.
Speaker 6: You can't destroy Gaza, take out Hamas and leave it
Speaker 6: with absolutely no power structure. And if we're going to
Speaker 6: give aid over there, as we should and we have,
Speaker 6: we should make sure that the views of Americans attached
Speaker 6: to that aid are perfectly clear. And yes, the of
Speaker 6: civilian deaths an important part, but there's also the strategic
Speaker 6: part of that. For us, we have an interest in that,
Speaker 6: and that interest needs to be addressed.
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Speaker 2: There is a deal. It's official now and the White
Speaker 2: House has confirmed this deal to elxtend the truce for
Speaker 2: the release of twenty more hostages. And this follows what
Speaker 2: I think most of us would agree as a successful
Speaker 2: weekend in getting a lot of folks out of arms way.
Speaker 10: Yeah. Absolutely, there's been more than fifty hostages already released
Speaker 10: by Hamas even more Palestinians who were held prison in
Speaker 10: Israel who have been leased. Because of course there's this
Speaker 10: one to three ratio as part of this deal, and
Speaker 10: it is pretty much the same deal terms that will
Speaker 10: go forward for another two days. This Originally this ceasefire
Speaker 10: was expected to expire early hours local time tomorrow and
Speaker 10: instead it'll run through Thursday. But so, of course, despite
Speaker 10: the extension, Net and Yahoo is still maintaining when this
Speaker 10: temporary cease fire is over, the fighting is going to
Speaker 10: keep going.
Speaker 2: Which might be I guess the genius part to the
Speaker 2: way this agreement was written because there was a structure
Speaker 2: for extending it two days ten hostages and it's actually
Speaker 2: working in this case. That doesn't mean it will be
Speaker 2: extended again. With great questions here now in Washington, about
Speaker 2: funding going forward. We talked about this with Rick and
Speaker 2: Jeanie last hour. I'm not sure they agreed, Kayley, because
Speaker 2: you've got Mike Turner, who chairs the Intelligence Committee, saying
Speaker 2: we can't figure out a border deal by the end
Speaker 2: of the year, and without it there is no funding,
Speaker 2: and Chris Murphy, the Democrat from Connecticut saying we're not
Speaker 2: going to prove Israel funding without humanitarian strings attached. So
Speaker 2: you think they're going to get this done by the
Speaker 2: end of December.
Speaker 10: If they do, it's going to be a very hard
Speaker 10: fought battle to actually get it over the finish line,
Speaker 10: in that you have these kind of competing priorities. On
Speaker 10: the one hand, there is bipartisan support largely to continue
Speaker 10: funding Israel, but you are starting to see more pushback
Speaker 10: on the progress Democratic side because of the humanitarian concerns
Speaker 10: in the civilian death tool that continues to just climb
Speaker 10: higher and hire until at least the ceasefire went into place.
Speaker 10: On the other hand, you have Republicans who are just
Speaker 10: wary of spending more money in general, who want to
Speaker 10: try to extract some border security measures out of any
Speaker 10: potential deal, and it's just very unclear to me, Joe,
Speaker 10: how you put all of that together and actually do
Speaker 10: so within a relatively short timeline. I'm not sure that
Speaker 10: they're going to get this.
Speaker 5: Done for you.
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 1: I don't know.
Speaker 2: Rick was of the mind there might be enough pressure
Speaker 2: to actually make it happen, Jeanie says, call me back
Speaker 2: when you have a serious question. I mean, we can't
Speaker 2: figure out how to find the government here, we're going
Speaker 2: to figure out comprehensive immigration reform. I don't know. Rick's
Speaker 2: been there as well, so I do give him a
Speaker 2: lot of credit for his view. Mick mulvaney, I'm sure
Speaker 2: has strong feelings about all of this. He's back with
Speaker 2: us for his weekly conversation. It's great to see you, sir.
Speaker 2: I'll forego the business cards for everyone because I'm pretty
Speaker 2: sure everyone knows who you are at this point. But
Speaker 2: I don't know your thoughts on that. So do we
Speaker 2: put Chris Turner in a room?
Speaker 5: I hope they're hope they can figure out who I am,
Speaker 5: because I'm still trying to figure it out myself. Looking
Speaker 5: getting folks in a room is not the problem. But
Speaker 5: Kaylee's absolutely right, and there's all these sort of contributing factors.
Speaker 5: That's going to make it difficult. And the only one
Speaker 5: I think she forgot is that the time pressure is
Speaker 5: off now. And I know that's sort of a perverse
Speaker 5: reverse incentive, but typically big deals would get done at
Speaker 5: Christmas and again right before the August recess because that's
Speaker 5: when Congress wants to go home. Well, they don't have
Speaker 5: the sort of the sort of damicles to hold over
Speaker 5: the members right now because the funny deals go beyond Christmas.
Speaker 5: So I think it's highly unlikely anything gets done, at
Speaker 5: least on some of the border security. Israel is a
Speaker 5: little different story. I know there's been some pushback on
Speaker 5: the humanitarian issues and the Democrat side. That's not unexpected,
Speaker 5: but I still think there's broad support for is reel funding.
Speaker 5: If anything gets done by Christmas, that might be the one.
Speaker 10: So, Mick, you don't think two ongoing hot wars are
Speaker 10: enough pressure on the timeline, even if it isn't an
Speaker 10: actual in writing funding deadline.
Speaker 5: You know, when they vote, when they vote for money, Kaylee,
Speaker 5: it's it's mostly to sort of you know, say, hi,
Speaker 5: I voted for something I care about this right, They
Speaker 5: know in the back of their minds It takes a
Speaker 5: long time for that money to go out anyway. So
Speaker 5: if they approve a deal December fifteenth or January fifteenth,
Speaker 5: it doesn't really make that much of a real world
Speaker 5: difference in terms of when the money gets to where
Speaker 5: it needs to be. A lot of the Ukraine money,
Speaker 5: for example, hasn't even gone yet. They've spent billions of
Speaker 5: dollars there. It takes a long time to spend that
Speaker 5: much money. You know, you heard Biden I think last
Speaker 5: week say there was one hundred million dollar package. That's
Speaker 5: a rounding error in some of these these these dollar
Speaker 5: figures they're talking about. So yeah, look there's pressure, but
Speaker 5: the pressure is pr pressure. It's it's not real world pressure.
Speaker 5: It's not like the outcomes are going to change overseas
Speaker 5: and they take an extra thirty days.
Speaker 2: Fifty three days, I believe, until the government starts at
Speaker 2: least running out of money, and that that first trunch.
Speaker 2: I wonder what form this takes then, Mick, because obviously
Speaker 2: we've outlined the challenges here, and you know that of
Speaker 2: course the Speaker already brought Israel funding to the floor
Speaker 2: as a standalone. Will it then be at the mercy
Speaker 2: of a border deal, or is there another swing at
Speaker 2: this that looks like something we're not even aware of now, Yeah, sort.
Speaker 5: Of all the old textbooks are. You sort of take
Speaker 5: him out the window because everybody in DC knows how
Speaker 5: this would have been worked out over the course of
Speaker 5: the last decade and a half, which is there would
Speaker 5: have been some monstrous omnibus bill that covered all of this.
Speaker 5: I just don't see you getting that with Mike Johnson
Speaker 5: as the Speaker of the House, at least not right away.
Speaker 5: I think he's going to have to. If he does
Speaker 5: go that way, it's going to be because it's an
Speaker 5: absolute last resort to get the stuff that the Republicans want.
Speaker 5: But I still don't see that. Look, you're in a
Speaker 5: strange new world. Now we're voting for bipartisan things in
Speaker 5: the House. Could cost you your gavel. I know it
Speaker 5: didn't cost Mike Johnson's gat a couple of weeks back
Speaker 5: when he cut that Ladders deal. But even then there
Speaker 5: were people pushing back saying, how is this different than
Speaker 5: what Kevin McCarthy would have given us? So you take
Speaker 5: the Washington that you know him for the last decade
Speaker 5: and a half and sort of push it aside. You
Speaker 5: don't throw it away, but you push it aside and say, look,
Speaker 5: that might be the way it goes, but that also
Speaker 5: might be the thing that doesn't happen ever. Again, so
Speaker 5: we're at a learning curve with a sort of a
Speaker 5: new regime in the House for sure.
Speaker 10: Yeah, maybe the new Speaker used his one time free
Speaker 10: pass on a continuing resolution with Democratic support, And of course,
Speaker 10: Mick he has said he's not going to support another
Speaker 10: stopgap measure. He wants to get these appropriation bills done.
Speaker 10: Knowing the stance of Mike Johnson and the House, knowing
Speaker 10: the stance or just the reality of what a Democratic
Speaker 10: Senate and Democratic president are going to sign. Who do
Speaker 10: you think ultimately has is likely to come out on
Speaker 10: the losing side of.
Speaker 5: This, Mick, Oh, it's going to be the conservative right
Speaker 5: wing of the Republican Party, because that's the minority right.
Speaker 5: The majority of the House wants to spend money on something,
Speaker 5: and the Senate always wants to spend money on everything.
Speaker 5: I know that's being sort of tongue in cheek, but
Speaker 5: that's not that far from the truth. So the conservative
Speaker 5: wing of the Republican Party is the minority within that party,
Speaker 5: and they're probably going to be the ones that take
Speaker 5: the short shrift here. Why because everything has to be
Speaker 5: by partisan in the Senate. They have to have sixty votes,
Speaker 5: which means it's going to be a Democrat dominated document
Speaker 5: coming out of the Senate. So if anything passes at
Speaker 5: the end of the day, it's going to be something
Speaker 5: that most conservatives in the House aren't going to like.
Speaker 2: I wonder your thoughts on what we saw over the weekend, Mick,
Speaker 2: and how an event like this might change the entire
Speaker 2: conversation we're having. And that's the latest by a group
Speaker 2: of hoothy rebels who fired two ballistic missiles at a
Speaker 2: US naval vessel. This is the USS Mason that was
Speaker 2: responding to a distress call off Yemen, as apparently in
Speaker 2: Israeli billionaires can tanker was being hijacked. Something like this
Speaker 2: could have taken on a very different form. They fired
Speaker 2: those missiles and they landed about ten miles away from
Speaker 2: the navy vessel. And I'm sure that the Navy has
Speaker 2: a lot of methods up its sleeve to counteract a
Speaker 2: missile attack like that. But if that had gone in
Speaker 2: a different direction, what would it mean for the debate
Speaker 2: here in Washington.
Speaker 5: Oh, dramatically different. That's what everybody's afraid of, Joe, everybody here,
Speaker 5: everybody in d C. I'm not in DC right now.
Speaker 5: Everyone in DC. Of course, anybody who pays attention to
Speaker 5: this worldwide is worried about expansion. They're worried about a
Speaker 5: bleed over into Lebanon with Hisbela. They're worried about Iran's intervention.
Speaker 5: They're worried about Russia's role. So far, so far, the
Speaker 5: Israelis have kept a pretty everybody's been able to keep
Speaker 5: it sort of concentrated around Gazi. Yes, there have been
Speaker 5: incursions across the Lebanon Israel border. There have been events
Speaker 5: like you just described with the hooties and so forth.
Speaker 5: These have been sporadic. However, that hasn't been sort of
Speaker 5: an organized expand of this dispute. I got to give,
Speaker 5: you know, some of the GCC countries credit for that,
Speaker 5: because I think they're probably interested in think keeping things
Speaker 5: as quiet and as contained as possible. Everybody's interested in that,
Speaker 5: with the possible exception of Hamas's ball and maybe Iran.
Speaker 5: So yeah, that's the kind of stuff that's the outlier, right,
Speaker 5: that's the Black Swan. That's what you really worry about,
Speaker 5: is this this this exogenous shock to the system takes
Speaker 5: this from an incident in Gaza that blows up in
Speaker 5: the entire in the entire Gulf coast, in the in
Speaker 5: the Gulf region. So that's a yeah, that's the kind
Speaker 5: of stuff against everybody's attention over the weekend.
Speaker 2: Well, would would it mean funding more likely? Or would
Speaker 2: it mean a more difficult debate?
Speaker 5: Now more likely and more quickly if things really got
Speaker 5: out of hand right right now, you've got it's a convenience, right.
Speaker 5: You could argue about border security, you can argue about
Speaker 5: Ukraine funding, you can argue about Taiwan funding. Because things
Speaker 5: have sort of calmed down, and I don't want to
Speaker 5: say that they're fit, they're not finically, that's I hope
Speaker 5: I'm making myself clear. It's calmed down a little bit
Speaker 5: from where it was, but it's still very, very tense.
Speaker 5: But you can still you've got you've got the ability
Speaker 5: to take your time a little bit. If Iran is
Speaker 5: what launching you know, nuclear weapons at Israel or vice versa,
Speaker 5: you don't have time to think about that kind of stuff.
Speaker 10: Well, make of course all of US were glued to
Speaker 10: the developments in the Middle East over the region, but
Speaker 10: there were other things in the news over the weekend
Speaker 10: as well, including this very long conversation that Republican Congressman
Speaker 10: from New York, George Santos, had on X Spaces, of course,
Speaker 10: formerly known at Twitter. Joe, I think we have a
Speaker 10: little bit. Yeah right, he's of course facing down a
Speaker 10: very likely expulsion vote, potentially as soon as this week.
Speaker 2: And yeah, rans yeah, extended.
Speaker 10: Yes, you can choose your you can choose your wording here.
Speaker 10: But this is a little taste of Congressman Santos.
Speaker 11: The United States Congress. There's Felon's Doore, there's people with
Speaker 11: all sorts of sisty backgrounds, and all of a sudden,
Speaker 11: George Santos is the very Magdalene of the United States Congress.
Speaker 10: He also called himself a Republican it girl. At one
Speaker 10: point he said, though he knows he'll get expelled when
Speaker 10: this expulsion resolution goes to the floor, But Nick, does
Speaker 10: he have a point about everybody else?
Speaker 5: No, no, he does. The guy doesn't have a point
Speaker 5: about anything. Look, you could have a really intelligent conversation
Speaker 5: about ethics in Washington. D c they're not nearly as
Speaker 5: bad as everybody believes them to be. I've been there
Speaker 5: for fifteen years. It's not like Hollywood makes it out
Speaker 5: to be. Are there folks there who are doing stuff
Speaker 5: they shouldn't be doing? Yeah, but this five hundred and
Speaker 5: thirty five of them. Show me any group of five
Speaker 5: hundred and thirty five Americans, and they're not. All of
Speaker 5: them are going to be as pure as the driven snow.
Speaker 5: But no to try and distract from his own whatever
Speaker 5: it is by, you know, sort of saying, well, everybody
Speaker 5: else does it. It's just it's par for the course
Speaker 5: with this guy. Look, step back and realize what's getting
Speaker 5: ready to happen here. We just had a long conversation
Speaker 5: about how difficult it is for the Republicans in the House,
Speaker 5: especially but in Washington generally to get anything done because
Speaker 5: the margins are so tight, and yet they are fully
Speaker 5: expected now to discharge, to expel one of their own
Speaker 5: into a seat that likely becomes a Democrat. How bad
Speaker 5: does it have to be with George Santos for that
Speaker 5: to happen. Let's take some faith in the system under
Speaker 5: these circumstances. Say, look, even though it doesn't help them politically,
Speaker 5: it hurts them politically. It looks like the Republicans are
Speaker 5: getting ready to kick this nut job out. The system
Speaker 5: is working, and that's this takeaway from George Santos, not
Speaker 5: whether or not he's Mary Magdalene or an it girl,
Speaker 5: or whether everybody else does it.
Speaker 2: I kind of want to know who the girl is.
Speaker 2: But so is he out this week? Mick? I think
Speaker 2: you just answered that question. If this becomes a privileged resolution,
Speaker 2: it's just a matter of days then, right.
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's the first it's the first opportunity. It is it.
Speaker 5: It's as soon as he The sooner the better. I
Speaker 5: don't think they're waiting on They don't. They're not sitting
Speaker 5: around going, well, we need George's vote on this one
Speaker 5: last thing. Even mind the government is fund is past Christmas,
Speaker 5: That's not how they're looking at this thing. I think
Speaker 5: the sooner we're done to talking about George Santos, the
Speaker 5: happier the Republicans in the House are going to be.
Speaker 10: Hm, we only have about a minute left, Mick. But
Speaker 10: who is the it girl?
Speaker 2: I thought you'd follow it, you do you have?
Speaker 5: I thought it was Kayley. I thought I thought you
Speaker 5: were the easy.
Speaker 4: Oh, you flatter me.
Speaker 5: But right now, I mean when we will do this
Speaker 5: next week, Maybe it's Nicki Haley. It just is she's
Speaker 5: had a really good run of a couple of weeks.
Speaker 5: I don't think she's got a chance yet to dig
Speaker 5: into Trump's leadership, but she certainly cemented herself so far
Speaker 5: as the preferred anti Trump candidate. That probably is there's
Speaker 5: not enough anti Trump votes to give anybody the nomination
Speaker 5: right now. But you said, are pretty good couple of weeks.
Speaker 5: There's a lot of Republicans on the Hill wishing that
Speaker 5: they'd see more of Nicki Haley and less of George Santos.
Speaker 2: Wow. I didn't expect a serious answer to that. Yeah,
Speaker 2: for starters. But now you know, now Donald Trump's going
Speaker 2: to call you because I think he wants to be
Speaker 2: the girl. Mick.
Speaker 5: Yeah, you know that's he's going to be the nominee
Speaker 5: and that should be good enough for him.
Speaker 2: Wow. Well, if you still feel that way, we won't
Speaker 2: break that to Dickie Haley yet. It's great to see you,
Speaker 2: Mick every week at this time. Mick mulvaney with us
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg Sound On wherever you are. Get back to
Speaker 2: Washington safely. We look forward to doing again here at
Speaker 2: the Table McK mulvaney, I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines.
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