1 00:00:00,880 --> 00:00:04,360 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:07,560 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 3 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:10,760 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on 4 00:00:10,800 --> 00:00:12,800 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts. 5 00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:17,680 Speaker 2: We are back in Washington, back to reality with breaking news. 6 00:00:17,720 --> 00:00:20,439 Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew here in the nation's capital and glad 7 00:00:20,440 --> 00:00:22,759 Speaker 2: you're with us on the Monday edition of Sound On. 8 00:00:22,920 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 2: We just heard officially from the White House that we 9 00:00:26,600 --> 00:00:29,159 Speaker 2: have a deal to extend the pause in Israel. It 10 00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:32,519 Speaker 2: will result in more hostages being released, two more days 11 00:00:32,880 --> 00:00:36,360 Speaker 2: for twenty hostages. That's just coming together in the last 12 00:00:36,440 --> 00:00:38,200 Speaker 2: hour or so. And I want to bring in Jordan 13 00:00:38,280 --> 00:00:42,280 Speaker 2: Fabian right now, White House correspondent at Bloomberg Jordan. This 14 00:00:42,440 --> 00:00:44,720 Speaker 2: was the hope we heard from Joe Biden over the weekend, 15 00:00:45,240 --> 00:00:47,480 Speaker 2: who said, you know, we've got this initial four day plan. 16 00:00:47,560 --> 00:00:50,840 Speaker 2: The hope was to extend it and maybe get additional hostages. 17 00:00:51,159 --> 00:00:55,480 Speaker 2: It's not a coincidence that we have twenty hostages in 18 00:00:55,520 --> 00:00:57,960 Speaker 2: this case. There was an agreement that called for some 19 00:00:58,080 --> 00:01:00,840 Speaker 2: structure here for each day I believe reached two days, 20 00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:05,360 Speaker 2: it was ten hostages. Could this just keep going on indefinitely. 21 00:01:06,160 --> 00:01:08,560 Speaker 3: I think President Joe Biden and the US would love 22 00:01:08,640 --> 00:01:12,000 Speaker 3: to see that. Israel has still made it clear that 23 00:01:12,120 --> 00:01:15,440 Speaker 3: after this pause, after there are hostages released, that they 24 00:01:15,520 --> 00:01:20,200 Speaker 3: plan to continue their military campaign against Hamas and Gaza. 25 00:01:20,400 --> 00:01:24,199 Speaker 3: And so we haven't heard any indication so far that 26 00:01:24,440 --> 00:01:27,040 Speaker 3: they plan to change those plans. But the longer this 27 00:01:27,080 --> 00:01:29,400 Speaker 3: goes on, I think the US hopes, the more time 28 00:01:29,480 --> 00:01:33,440 Speaker 3: they have to maybe talk Israel down, maybe downsize that 29 00:01:33,520 --> 00:01:35,319 Speaker 3: continued defensive once this is over. 30 00:01:35,480 --> 00:01:40,399 Speaker 2: Yeah, this is something that came up on Sunday Morning television. 31 00:01:41,200 --> 00:01:44,240 Speaker 2: Mike Turner, who chairs the House Intelligence Committee, a Republican, 32 00:01:44,360 --> 00:01:48,280 Speaker 2: was concerned about the lack of detail that the administration had, 33 00:01:48,360 --> 00:01:51,840 Speaker 2: or at least was making public about the hostages. Do 34 00:01:51,880 --> 00:01:54,880 Speaker 2: you have a sense of whether the White House knows 35 00:01:55,240 --> 00:01:55,880 Speaker 2: where they are? 36 00:01:57,280 --> 00:01:59,440 Speaker 3: I think you heard John Kirby in the briefing today 37 00:01:59,560 --> 00:02:02,760 Speaker 3: admit that they don't really have a ton of details 38 00:02:02,800 --> 00:02:07,560 Speaker 3: about the whereabouts, particularly of the remaining Americans who are 39 00:02:07,560 --> 00:02:09,799 Speaker 3: being held. Part of the complication of this is that 40 00:02:10,000 --> 00:02:12,600 Speaker 3: you're dealing with Hamas, which is a group whose leadership 41 00:02:12,639 --> 00:02:15,200 Speaker 3: is deep underground in Gaza. All of this is being 42 00:02:15,200 --> 00:02:19,400 Speaker 3: done through an intermediary in cutter and so they're not 43 00:02:19,560 --> 00:02:22,760 Speaker 3: the two parties are not talking directly. The hostages are 44 00:02:22,760 --> 00:02:25,160 Speaker 3: also being held not just by Hamas but by other 45 00:02:25,160 --> 00:02:28,080 Speaker 3: groups like Palestinine Islamic hi Had, who may have moved 46 00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:29,520 Speaker 3: them around to different locations. 47 00:02:29,520 --> 00:02:33,120 Speaker 2: So it's a lot of this is a leap of faith. 48 00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:35,440 Speaker 3: A lot of this is not like, you know, information 49 00:02:35,520 --> 00:02:38,840 Speaker 3: like proof of life well being is not really readily available. 50 00:02:38,880 --> 00:02:41,160 Speaker 3: But what we've seen so far over the last few 51 00:02:41,200 --> 00:02:44,240 Speaker 3: days is that the releases have taken place, the hostages 52 00:02:44,280 --> 00:02:46,400 Speaker 3: are getting back, So I think the hope is that 53 00:02:46,400 --> 00:02:47,400 Speaker 3: they can continue to do. 54 00:02:47,360 --> 00:02:51,560 Speaker 2: That while you're still with US Jordan. The matter of 55 00:02:52,200 --> 00:02:55,079 Speaker 2: Israeli funding is obviously a real one, and it's something 56 00:02:55,120 --> 00:02:56,600 Speaker 2: that we're going to be talking about quite a bit 57 00:02:56,639 --> 00:03:00,400 Speaker 2: as lawmakers return to Washington. There are questions though about 58 00:03:00,400 --> 00:03:03,040 Speaker 2: what form it might take. Chris Murphy, the Senator, a 59 00:03:03,040 --> 00:03:08,200 Speaker 2: Democrat from Connecticut, suggested over the weekend that essentially humanitarian 60 00:03:08,240 --> 00:03:10,960 Speaker 2: strings would be attached, that it would be based on 61 00:03:12,240 --> 00:03:16,800 Speaker 2: making good on international humanitarian law. Knowing that there have 62 00:03:16,919 --> 00:03:21,000 Speaker 2: been a number of an extraordinary number of Palestinian civilians 63 00:03:21,000 --> 00:03:23,800 Speaker 2: who have been killed in this conflict. Is that something 64 00:03:23,840 --> 00:03:25,280 Speaker 2: that the White House is open to. 65 00:03:26,200 --> 00:03:28,880 Speaker 3: President Biden said on Friday that he would look at 66 00:03:29,200 --> 00:03:32,400 Speaker 3: ways of conditioning this aid. That's a shift before in 67 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:35,200 Speaker 3: the beginning, when this was first proposed, said you know, 68 00:03:35,240 --> 00:03:37,760 Speaker 3: we're going to help Israel, no strings attached. But since then, 69 00:03:38,640 --> 00:03:41,040 Speaker 3: this offensive has taken place in Gaza, a lot of 70 00:03:41,080 --> 00:03:44,280 Speaker 3: palace sittings have died, whole cities have been leveled, and 71 00:03:44,320 --> 00:03:47,280 Speaker 3: so the mood has turned among Democrats. They want to 72 00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:51,480 Speaker 3: see some concessions here. But then the calculus gets tough 73 00:03:51,520 --> 00:03:54,200 Speaker 3: because Republicans don't want to see concessions. There's also the 74 00:03:54,240 --> 00:03:58,440 Speaker 3: broader disagreements over Ukraine and immigration that could subsume this 75 00:03:58,560 --> 00:04:01,400 Speaker 3: Israel issue. So the at the passing Israel Aid is 76 00:04:01,440 --> 00:04:03,480 Speaker 3: a lot harder than it was just a month ago, 77 00:04:03,600 --> 00:04:03,960 Speaker 3: Isn't that? 78 00:04:04,040 --> 00:04:05,920 Speaker 2: For sure? It does seem like it's kind of out 79 00:04:05,920 --> 00:04:08,520 Speaker 2: of the White House's hands at this point the President 80 00:04:08,560 --> 00:04:10,680 Speaker 2: needs to wait to hear from leaders on the hill. 81 00:04:10,760 --> 00:04:11,600 Speaker 2: Is that the case. 82 00:04:12,000 --> 00:04:13,960 Speaker 3: Reading between the lines of what the President has said, 83 00:04:14,160 --> 00:04:16,560 Speaker 3: I think he's saying, look, if you guys have a 84 00:04:16,600 --> 00:04:19,800 Speaker 3: proposal for conditioning this AID, let's see it right into law. 85 00:04:20,080 --> 00:04:21,479 Speaker 3: And we can see if we can get a pass, 86 00:04:21,560 --> 00:04:24,560 Speaker 3: but I don't see the President acting unilaterally to do that. 87 00:04:24,720 --> 00:04:26,960 Speaker 3: He's looking to Congress, So as you said, yes, it's 88 00:04:27,000 --> 00:04:28,119 Speaker 3: now in lawmaker's hands. 89 00:04:28,360 --> 00:04:30,040 Speaker 2: Hope had a great holiday. It's good to see you. 90 00:04:30,120 --> 00:04:32,800 Speaker 2: Thank you as always. Jordan Fabian covering the White House 91 00:04:32,800 --> 00:04:35,479 Speaker 2: for us here at Bloomberg, getting things started here on 92 00:04:35,520 --> 00:04:38,839 Speaker 2: the Monday after. As we mentioned, news is breaking here 93 00:04:38,839 --> 00:04:42,919 Speaker 2: and we're also watching the price of oil, remembering great 94 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:46,280 Speaker 2: concerns that so many people had about what might happen 95 00:04:46,320 --> 00:04:49,920 Speaker 2: to energy prices if the war between Israel and Hamas 96 00:04:50,200 --> 00:04:52,680 Speaker 2: somehow grew into a second or third front. We've seen 97 00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:55,400 Speaker 2: the opposite happen. Oil prices have in fact come down 98 00:04:55,800 --> 00:04:58,680 Speaker 2: in a bit of relief over that, but also with 99 00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:04,240 Speaker 2: of course supply and demand issues really driving prices here, 100 00:05:04,640 --> 00:05:07,560 Speaker 2: a slowing economy in China and expected slow down here 101 00:05:07,560 --> 00:05:10,039 Speaker 2: in the US. So it's something that we wanted to 102 00:05:10,080 --> 00:05:13,680 Speaker 2: talk to Bob McNally about it Rapidan Energy, because we 103 00:05:13,720 --> 00:05:16,040 Speaker 2: do have an OPEC meeting that's coming up this week 104 00:05:16,240 --> 00:05:19,000 Speaker 2: and oil ministers will likely be reacting to everything that 105 00:05:19,040 --> 00:05:21,840 Speaker 2: I just mentioned. Bob is with us right now of 106 00:05:21,839 --> 00:05:26,920 Speaker 2: course Rapidan Energy, as I mentioned, former National Security Council 107 00:05:26,960 --> 00:05:29,839 Speaker 2: Senior director for International Energy. You also spent some time 108 00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:31,480 Speaker 2: in the White House, Bob, it's great to see. I 109 00:05:31,520 --> 00:05:34,119 Speaker 2: hope you had a great holiday. We're looking at crude 110 00:05:34,120 --> 00:05:36,799 Speaker 2: oil here and I'm looking at WTI at this point 111 00:05:36,800 --> 00:05:39,800 Speaker 2: below seventy five dollars a barrel. The OPEC meeting is 112 00:05:39,800 --> 00:05:43,240 Speaker 2: on Thursday. Is there anything that ministers will do? And 113 00:05:43,320 --> 00:05:45,520 Speaker 2: I suspect you've got an answer to this to try 114 00:05:45,560 --> 00:05:47,720 Speaker 2: to shore up prices going into winter. 115 00:05:48,800 --> 00:05:51,440 Speaker 4: Hey, Joe, it's great to be with you. Yeah, you know, 116 00:05:52,560 --> 00:05:55,880 Speaker 4: there is a little bit of sort of side business though, 117 00:05:55,920 --> 00:05:59,920 Speaker 4: before we get to keeping a floor under prices. OPEK 118 00:06:00,160 --> 00:06:02,560 Speaker 4: plus kind of set it up, set itself up for 119 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:05,479 Speaker 4: some discussions back in the summer when they said, look 120 00:06:05,800 --> 00:06:09,679 Speaker 4: for a few countries in Africa, Nigeria and Gola, Congo, 121 00:06:10,000 --> 00:06:13,000 Speaker 4: we're going to lower your quota starting in January. So 122 00:06:13,360 --> 00:06:15,480 Speaker 4: even if we were here at a hundred dollars a barrel, Joe, 123 00:06:15,640 --> 00:06:18,080 Speaker 4: there still is going to be some litigation going on 124 00:06:18,160 --> 00:06:21,680 Speaker 4: about finalizing those lower quotas for some of those producers. 125 00:06:21,800 --> 00:06:23,960 Speaker 4: Then you get EUAE, which got a bump, so there's that, 126 00:06:24,279 --> 00:06:26,839 Speaker 4: and that's largely why we delayed, why we didn't have 127 00:06:26,880 --> 00:06:29,440 Speaker 4: the meeting of the OPECK plus meeting on Sunday and 128 00:06:29,480 --> 00:06:31,560 Speaker 4: now it's going to be Thursday. I think it's largely 129 00:06:31,600 --> 00:06:34,479 Speaker 4: because of that, let's call it side business. But then 130 00:06:34,520 --> 00:06:37,200 Speaker 4: comes the as you just described, oil price are a 131 00:06:37,200 --> 00:06:39,760 Speaker 4: lot softer than they thought. Balances are softer. We didn't 132 00:06:39,760 --> 00:06:42,400 Speaker 4: see the big inventory draws everyone expect in the third quarter, 133 00:06:42,880 --> 00:06:45,160 Speaker 4: So now they have to decide whether to extend their 134 00:06:45,240 --> 00:06:48,240 Speaker 4: voluntary cut, the Saudi voluntary cut, or even cut deeper, 135 00:06:48,560 --> 00:06:51,200 Speaker 4: and Joe, I think chances are they will. They'll at 136 00:06:51,320 --> 00:06:54,680 Speaker 4: least extend the current Saudi cut through the third first 137 00:06:54,720 --> 00:06:59,560 Speaker 4: quarter of next year. OPEC plus remains in proactive, you know, 138 00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:04,680 Speaker 4: a cautionary and preemptive mode, so that is our best case. 139 00:07:04,720 --> 00:07:08,200 Speaker 4: I think odds favor some form of continued restraint on 140 00:07:08,279 --> 00:07:10,520 Speaker 4: supply to keep prices from falling out of bed. 141 00:07:10,520 --> 00:07:13,920 Speaker 2: Here, what does it mean if that's the case. If 142 00:07:13,920 --> 00:07:15,520 Speaker 2: they do get some cuts here, and I know that 143 00:07:15,560 --> 00:07:19,160 Speaker 2: the Saudis are asking others to lower their quotas to 144 00:07:19,240 --> 00:07:22,480 Speaker 2: try to shore up prices, what could we see between 145 00:07:22,520 --> 00:07:23,320 Speaker 2: now and the end of the year. 146 00:07:24,560 --> 00:07:24,880 Speaker 5: Well. 147 00:07:24,920 --> 00:07:27,680 Speaker 4: I think if we get a solid extension of the 148 00:07:27,720 --> 00:07:30,480 Speaker 4: Saudi cut, at the very least an extension of the 149 00:07:30,520 --> 00:07:33,920 Speaker 4: three hundred thousand barrel a day Russian restraint on exports, 150 00:07:34,760 --> 00:07:38,600 Speaker 4: UAE may be asked to wait a bit before increasing 151 00:07:38,640 --> 00:07:41,040 Speaker 4: its production as was promised in the summer. You know, 152 00:07:41,080 --> 00:07:43,600 Speaker 4: that's additional restraint of a million and a half barrels 153 00:07:43,600 --> 00:07:45,480 Speaker 4: a day. I think we'll see a rally. I hope 154 00:07:45,480 --> 00:07:47,640 Speaker 4: we talk about geopolitical risk. I think it's a little 155 00:07:47,680 --> 00:07:50,600 Speaker 4: too low. So I think between here and the end 156 00:07:50,600 --> 00:07:53,000 Speaker 4: of the year, if we get the OPEC plus restraint, 157 00:07:53,440 --> 00:07:56,440 Speaker 4: I think geopolitical risk is stewed higher. I think we 158 00:07:56,480 --> 00:07:58,920 Speaker 4: can get a nice little rally here into year end. 159 00:07:59,000 --> 00:08:01,600 Speaker 4: If they fail to cut, if they fail to signal 160 00:08:01,640 --> 00:08:04,960 Speaker 4: the market there continued resolve, you know, oil prices could 161 00:08:04,960 --> 00:08:06,320 Speaker 4: be heading south pretty fast. 162 00:08:08,200 --> 00:08:10,440 Speaker 2: This is fascinating considering the fact that there's a hot 163 00:08:10,480 --> 00:08:12,280 Speaker 2: war in the Middle East, Bob, and that's where we 164 00:08:12,360 --> 00:08:15,800 Speaker 2: started the hour here talking about Israel Hamas and now 165 00:08:15,840 --> 00:08:18,880 Speaker 2: what appears to be and in fact is an extended truce. 166 00:08:18,920 --> 00:08:21,000 Speaker 2: We're going to get twenty more hostages out here. The 167 00:08:21,040 --> 00:08:24,160 Speaker 2: headlines have been a bit better over the past couple 168 00:08:24,200 --> 00:08:28,120 Speaker 2: of days, but we've seen massive destruction and continued fighting 169 00:08:28,640 --> 00:08:32,520 Speaker 2: with an expectation that fighting will resume. I know we're 170 00:08:32,520 --> 00:08:34,680 Speaker 2: not at war with Iran, but are you surprised to 171 00:08:34,679 --> 00:08:37,720 Speaker 2: see oil prices continuing to sink in this environment? 172 00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:39,719 Speaker 5: I am a little bit. 173 00:08:39,800 --> 00:08:43,280 Speaker 4: I have to say, we don't. Our base case is 174 00:08:43,320 --> 00:08:47,000 Speaker 4: not that this Gaza war will spread regionally, but it's 175 00:08:47,120 --> 00:08:50,160 Speaker 4: not zero. And we look at options pricing and flat 176 00:08:50,200 --> 00:08:52,560 Speaker 4: price and just talk to our clients. You get the 177 00:08:52,600 --> 00:08:56,640 Speaker 4: impression there's zero risk of disruption, and it's not zero. 178 00:08:56,720 --> 00:08:59,720 Speaker 4: It's at least thirty percent. I'm surprised at how many 179 00:08:59,720 --> 00:09:03,120 Speaker 4: of our traders think that somehow Israel's not going to 180 00:09:03,120 --> 00:09:06,280 Speaker 4: resume the war, that this truce will get extended, extended 181 00:09:06,320 --> 00:09:09,840 Speaker 4: and become permanent. We're pretty sure once they've gotten all 182 00:09:09,880 --> 00:09:12,840 Speaker 4: the hostages out they can they will go back to business, 183 00:09:12,920 --> 00:09:16,480 Speaker 4: you know, and in Gaza, and we think, you know, 184 00:09:16,600 --> 00:09:19,120 Speaker 4: the risk is not zero. And you see now we're 185 00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:22,120 Speaker 4: boarding ships that the houties are seizing. We're starting to 186 00:09:22,280 --> 00:09:26,000 Speaker 4: attack the United States and kill Iranian proxies that are 187 00:09:26,000 --> 00:09:29,920 Speaker 4: attacking our troops. So you know, neither Tarun nor Washington 188 00:09:29,920 --> 00:09:32,360 Speaker 4: wants to see a global conflict, but you can't always 189 00:09:32,440 --> 00:09:35,040 Speaker 4: get what you want, and we think the cycle of 190 00:09:35,120 --> 00:09:38,319 Speaker 4: violence is going to resume here when the truce is done. 191 00:09:38,520 --> 00:09:42,240 Speaker 4: And so another thing Joe surprising that the Biden administration, 192 00:09:42,280 --> 00:09:44,440 Speaker 4: I would say, to its credit, is not only filling 193 00:09:44,480 --> 00:09:48,640 Speaker 4: the spr amiss two wars going on, but also I 194 00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:51,280 Speaker 4: think is getting ready to really crack down on cheating 195 00:09:51,360 --> 00:09:54,080 Speaker 4: under the G seven price cap on Russian exports. They're 196 00:09:54,120 --> 00:09:57,080 Speaker 4: willing to take more risk than they were this summer 197 00:09:57,160 --> 00:10:00,720 Speaker 4: or before in restricting supplies in order to fill that 198 00:10:00,840 --> 00:10:04,280 Speaker 4: spr and also make life a little more uncomfortable for 199 00:10:04,360 --> 00:10:06,959 Speaker 4: Joe Biden. So rack that up there too as another 200 00:10:07,000 --> 00:10:08,920 Speaker 4: bit of a man bite's dog story a little bit. 201 00:10:10,040 --> 00:10:14,479 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I'm glad you mentioned what's happening with the Hoothi's. 202 00:10:15,040 --> 00:10:17,440 Speaker 2: We should let our listeners and viewers know what took 203 00:10:17,440 --> 00:10:21,080 Speaker 2: place over the weekend. The USS Mason responded to a 204 00:10:21,160 --> 00:10:26,000 Speaker 2: distress call off Yemen an attempted hijacking of a chemical 205 00:10:26,120 --> 00:10:31,120 Speaker 2: tanker owned by an Israeli billionaire. They managed to pursue 206 00:10:31,120 --> 00:10:34,600 Speaker 2: the attackers. They tried to get away and they were apprehended, 207 00:10:34,600 --> 00:10:37,720 Speaker 2: but all the while two ballistic missiles were fired at 208 00:10:37,720 --> 00:10:42,280 Speaker 2: the Mason from hoothy controlled Yemen. They landed about ten 209 00:10:42,320 --> 00:10:45,800 Speaker 2: miles away. That could have ended very differently, Bob. And 210 00:10:45,800 --> 00:10:47,640 Speaker 2: that's the kind of story you're talking about, isn't it. 211 00:10:48,240 --> 00:10:51,160 Speaker 4: Absolutely. You know, we've had about eighty attacks and rising 212 00:10:51,240 --> 00:10:54,520 Speaker 4: on US forces. So far, god, thanks to God, we 213 00:10:54,559 --> 00:10:57,000 Speaker 4: haven't had anyone killed. But you know, a lot of 214 00:10:57,000 --> 00:10:59,080 Speaker 4: folks looked at the Iranian Foreign Minister when he came 215 00:10:59,120 --> 00:11:01,000 Speaker 4: out and said, look, we don't want this war to 216 00:11:01,040 --> 00:11:04,040 Speaker 4: go regional. Fine, but then they didn't pay attention to 217 00:11:04,080 --> 00:11:07,199 Speaker 4: his next sentence when he said, but if Israel continues 218 00:11:07,240 --> 00:11:10,480 Speaker 4: as a tax and gaza, it will become inevitable. And 219 00:11:10,520 --> 00:11:12,760 Speaker 4: I think folks are just whistling past the graveyard a 220 00:11:12,760 --> 00:11:15,600 Speaker 4: little bit about geopolitical risk in the Middle East. 221 00:11:16,120 --> 00:11:18,679 Speaker 2: It's not zero. We learned today that the President will 222 00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:21,920 Speaker 2: not attend COP twenty eighth this week, the big UN 223 00:11:22,360 --> 00:11:24,800 Speaker 2: Climate Summit. I don't know if that was on your radar. 224 00:11:24,840 --> 00:11:28,280 Speaker 2: Apparently John Kerry is going to go in his place. 225 00:11:29,120 --> 00:11:33,960 Speaker 2: But that's of course an organization and an event that 226 00:11:34,040 --> 00:11:37,880 Speaker 2: wants to put quotas to transition to green energy in 227 00:11:38,200 --> 00:11:40,280 Speaker 2: a more aggressive place than they are. 228 00:11:40,360 --> 00:11:40,640 Speaker 1: Now. 229 00:11:41,160 --> 00:11:43,480 Speaker 2: What does it tell you about just the menu of 230 00:11:43,520 --> 00:11:46,440 Speaker 2: options here and the priorities that this president is facing 231 00:11:46,440 --> 00:11:47,520 Speaker 2: that he decided not to go. 232 00:11:48,400 --> 00:11:50,480 Speaker 4: You know, it must have been a difficult decision for 233 00:11:50,559 --> 00:11:53,880 Speaker 4: him because ever since the Biden administration approved the Willow 234 00:11:53,960 --> 00:11:57,679 Speaker 4: Project back in the spring in Alaska, they have been 235 00:11:57,720 --> 00:11:59,800 Speaker 4: losing you see it in the polls, losing a lot 236 00:11:59,840 --> 00:12:04,080 Speaker 4: of you young, young voter support. Really under pressure, and 237 00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:06,079 Speaker 4: that's why it cracked down a little bit more. They're 238 00:12:06,120 --> 00:12:07,760 Speaker 4: trying to get tighter on the environment. So I have 239 00:12:07,800 --> 00:12:10,000 Speaker 4: to say I was a little bit surprised to see 240 00:12:10,040 --> 00:12:13,480 Speaker 4: the President not going there and waving the flag. I 241 00:12:13,520 --> 00:12:16,080 Speaker 4: think there is a concern that maybe there's not going 242 00:12:16,160 --> 00:12:19,240 Speaker 4: to be some very good deliverables there. They're talking about 243 00:12:19,280 --> 00:12:22,400 Speaker 4: restraint on methane, trying to get together with China on 244 00:12:22,440 --> 00:12:24,720 Speaker 4: a renewable target, but really there's not a lot of 245 00:12:26,200 --> 00:12:30,040 Speaker 4: a substance there, and so maybe he's concerned about going 246 00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:32,120 Speaker 4: to a kind of a substance free meeting. There's also 247 00:12:32,280 --> 00:12:35,200 Speaker 4: controversy because the COP twenty eight, after all, is being 248 00:12:35,200 --> 00:12:37,800 Speaker 4: hosted by one of the world's largest oil producers and 249 00:12:37,840 --> 00:12:40,920 Speaker 4: exporters oil and gas, and there's controversy there, but a 250 00:12:40,920 --> 00:12:43,360 Speaker 4: bit surprising because he's underwater with his young voters, and 251 00:12:43,400 --> 00:12:45,280 Speaker 4: I would think he'd want to shore up his green 252 00:12:45,320 --> 00:12:47,160 Speaker 4: conventions by going that's. 253 00:12:47,040 --> 00:12:49,160 Speaker 2: A great point, Bob. It's good to talk to you. 254 00:12:49,240 --> 00:12:52,840 Speaker 2: I appreciate your joining today. Bob McNally at Rapidan Energy 255 00:12:52,840 --> 00:12:56,080 Speaker 2: where he's president, also former National Security Council Senior Director 256 00:12:56,120 --> 00:12:59,160 Speaker 2: for International Energy and a unique perspective, which is why 257 00:12:59,160 --> 00:13:02,040 Speaker 2: we talked to Bob frequently here on Bloomberg's sound on, 258 00:13:02,160 --> 00:13:04,520 Speaker 2: I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington want to assemble the panel. 259 00:13:04,800 --> 00:13:07,040 Speaker 2: Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano are with us. We're going 260 00:13:07,080 --> 00:13:09,480 Speaker 2: to have a lot of time for Rick and Jeannie 261 00:13:09,520 --> 00:13:12,080 Speaker 2: throughout the hour here. But just to pick up on 262 00:13:12,160 --> 00:13:15,560 Speaker 2: where Bob left off here, Genie, your thoughts on Joe 263 00:13:15,559 --> 00:13:19,360 Speaker 2: Biden deciding to stay at home to manage this crisis 264 00:13:19,400 --> 00:13:23,160 Speaker 2: and not attend the COP twenty eight summit in Dubai. 265 00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:23,920 Speaker 2: Will he regret that? 266 00:13:25,440 --> 00:13:27,199 Speaker 6: I don't know, ife'l gret it, regret it? But I 267 00:13:27,240 --> 00:13:29,600 Speaker 6: too was as surprised as Bob, you know, just given 268 00:13:29,640 --> 00:13:32,160 Speaker 6: the poll numbers as he mentioned, and We've talked about 269 00:13:32,160 --> 00:13:35,199 Speaker 6: eighteen to thirty four year olds. He is suffering in 270 00:13:35,200 --> 00:13:38,640 Speaker 6: that age range in the environment. Climate really really key 271 00:13:38,679 --> 00:13:41,960 Speaker 6: issue for him for them, and of course the poll 272 00:13:42,000 --> 00:13:44,480 Speaker 6: number is suffering now because of Israel. But you add 273 00:13:44,480 --> 00:13:46,959 Speaker 6: those together. I was surprised he chose not to go, 274 00:13:47,040 --> 00:13:49,480 Speaker 6: But the reality is he does have so much on 275 00:13:49,520 --> 00:13:53,240 Speaker 6: his plate. It is really really possible that he just 276 00:13:53,320 --> 00:13:55,439 Speaker 6: couldn't fit it into his schedule and he's going to 277 00:13:55,520 --> 00:13:58,360 Speaker 6: find another way to shore up those green credentials. 278 00:13:59,080 --> 00:14:01,360 Speaker 2: I can only assume that that is the case here. Rick. 279 00:14:01,360 --> 00:14:04,360 Speaker 2: Would it also suggest that this truce could be extended again? 280 00:14:06,040 --> 00:14:06,280 Speaker 5: Yeah? 281 00:14:06,400 --> 00:14:09,520 Speaker 7: I think that obviously it's gotten extended, you know, just 282 00:14:09,720 --> 00:14:12,960 Speaker 7: notified today for another couple of days. Hopefully many more 283 00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:16,200 Speaker 7: hostages will be released that could be a positive impact 284 00:14:16,640 --> 00:14:20,040 Speaker 7: on the presence numbers. But we also see in recent 285 00:14:20,080 --> 00:14:23,600 Speaker 7: polling that the young people eighteen to thirty five are 286 00:14:23,600 --> 00:14:27,200 Speaker 7: turning against the war in Israel, and so you couple 287 00:14:27,240 --> 00:14:29,280 Speaker 7: that with the lack of commitment on climbing. 288 00:14:29,360 --> 00:14:31,280 Speaker 2: That's where we'll pick up when we come back with 289 00:14:31,400 --> 00:14:33,400 Speaker 2: Rick and Jeanie. This is Bloomberg. 290 00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:38,560 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg sound on podcast. Catch the 291 00:14:38,600 --> 00:14:42,480 Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 292 00:14:42,520 --> 00:14:45,880 Speaker 1: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 293 00:14:46,000 --> 00:14:48,880 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 294 00:14:48,880 --> 00:14:53,360 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 295 00:14:55,120 --> 00:14:58,200 Speaker 2: Just don't call it a cease fire. The pause or 296 00:14:58,200 --> 00:15:01,520 Speaker 2: the truce, if you will, is being extended. This is 297 00:15:01,600 --> 00:15:04,320 Speaker 2: breaking news today from the White House. Thanks for joining us. 298 00:15:04,360 --> 00:15:07,760 Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. Welcome to the fastest show 299 00:15:07,840 --> 00:15:10,240 Speaker 2: in politics. It's been a couple of days. We've got 300 00:15:10,240 --> 00:15:13,000 Speaker 2: a lot to talk about here. Having seen the release 301 00:15:13,280 --> 00:15:15,880 Speaker 2: of dozens of hostages over the weekend, it appears there 302 00:15:15,920 --> 00:15:19,080 Speaker 2: will now be twenty more in an extra two days 303 00:15:19,840 --> 00:15:23,800 Speaker 2: of pausing, of course, in the fighting between Israel and Hamas. 304 00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:26,600 Speaker 2: Here's Admiral John Kirby a short time ago at the 305 00:15:26,600 --> 00:15:27,080 Speaker 2: White House. 306 00:15:27,200 --> 00:15:29,840 Speaker 8: Humanitarian pause has already brought a halt of the fighting, 307 00:15:29,920 --> 00:15:33,200 Speaker 8: together with a surge of humanitarian assistance. Now, in order 308 00:15:33,240 --> 00:15:35,760 Speaker 8: to extend the pause, Hamas has committed to releasing another 309 00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:39,760 Speaker 8: twenty women and children over the next two days. We would, 310 00:15:39,800 --> 00:15:43,000 Speaker 8: of course hope to see the pause extended further, and 311 00:15:43,040 --> 00:15:45,920 Speaker 8: that will depend upon Hamas continuing to release hostages. 312 00:15:47,520 --> 00:15:50,440 Speaker 2: We reassemble our panel for their take on what's happening. 313 00:15:50,880 --> 00:15:54,280 Speaker 2: Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano Bloomberg Politics contributors join us 314 00:15:54,280 --> 00:15:56,800 Speaker 2: here for the balance of the hour, and Rick, I 315 00:15:56,840 --> 00:15:59,840 Speaker 2: wonder your thoughts here as Joe Biden cancels his trip 316 00:15:59,880 --> 00:16:02,640 Speaker 2: to Do Buy for COP twenty eight this week to 317 00:16:02,760 --> 00:16:06,600 Speaker 2: focus on this matter. I know the Cutteries are helping 318 00:16:06,600 --> 00:16:09,760 Speaker 2: to broker this deal, but the White House is taking 319 00:16:09,800 --> 00:16:13,080 Speaker 2: some credit for making it happen. Is this the way 320 00:16:13,080 --> 00:16:16,280 Speaker 2: it keeps on rolling? Another day, another extension? 321 00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:19,640 Speaker 7: Yeah, I don't want to jinx it, but the point 322 00:16:19,680 --> 00:16:22,760 Speaker 7: you made in the last segment that a pause doesn't 323 00:16:22,800 --> 00:16:25,480 Speaker 7: necessarily go to a ceasefire, well, Joe Biden said for 324 00:16:25,640 --> 00:16:29,360 Speaker 7: the Weekend Nantucket that he hopes the pause does result 325 00:16:29,400 --> 00:16:31,280 Speaker 7: in a ceasefire, and of course, I think that's what 326 00:16:31,360 --> 00:16:36,320 Speaker 7: everybody is hoping for right now, is some more tangible 327 00:16:37,360 --> 00:16:40,480 Speaker 7: end of hostilities so that the balance of these hostages 328 00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:43,440 Speaker 7: can be returned. Also thought that one of the things 329 00:16:43,480 --> 00:16:48,280 Speaker 7: that was not well reported is that the Cuttery Foreign 330 00:16:48,280 --> 00:16:51,920 Speaker 7: Minister Sheik Muhammad al Thani has made the point that 331 00:16:52,360 --> 00:16:56,720 Speaker 7: part of the Hamas's issues with releasing prisoners is that 332 00:16:56,760 --> 00:17:00,280 Speaker 7: there are a number of other terrorist groups operating within 333 00:17:00,400 --> 00:17:03,600 Speaker 7: Gaza that hold hostages that are not directly under the 334 00:17:04,520 --> 00:17:07,640 Speaker 7: control of Hamas, and so Hamas has to go fetch them. 335 00:17:07,680 --> 00:17:09,520 Speaker 7: They don't know where they are, all of them. So 336 00:17:09,560 --> 00:17:12,200 Speaker 7: it just shows you the level of disarray that exists 337 00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:14,480 Speaker 7: in Gaza and how hard it's going to be to 338 00:17:14,600 --> 00:17:17,080 Speaker 7: be able to secure the release of all these hostages. 339 00:17:18,359 --> 00:17:22,600 Speaker 2: President just tweeted Genie I have consistently pressed her rights 340 00:17:22,640 --> 00:17:25,400 Speaker 2: for a pause in the fighting to accelerate and expand 341 00:17:25,480 --> 00:17:29,359 Speaker 2: the humanitarian assistance. This, of course is something we've talked 342 00:17:29,359 --> 00:17:32,880 Speaker 2: about a lot, having seen a real shift and sentiment 343 00:17:32,920 --> 00:17:36,600 Speaker 2: among young voters. To Rick's point earlier, eighteen to thirty 344 00:17:36,600 --> 00:17:40,560 Speaker 2: five year olds are largely not happy with the stand 345 00:17:40,600 --> 00:17:44,320 Speaker 2: that the administration has taken on this. This is why 346 00:17:44,359 --> 00:17:47,120 Speaker 2: the President, of course, at least partly, was out over 347 00:17:47,160 --> 00:17:49,720 Speaker 2: the weekend talking about the deal that had been put together. 348 00:17:49,800 --> 00:17:52,440 Speaker 2: Let's remember the fact that a four year old girl, 349 00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:57,880 Speaker 2: a dual US citizen, was freed over the weekend. You've 350 00:17:57,880 --> 00:17:59,960 Speaker 2: probably heard about Abigail. Here's the president. 351 00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:04,480 Speaker 9: A little girl named Abigail turned four years old. She 352 00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:08,360 Speaker 9: spent her birthday that birthday and at least fifty days 353 00:18:08,600 --> 00:18:13,239 Speaker 9: before that hell hostage by Amas. Today she's free, and 354 00:18:13,359 --> 00:18:16,679 Speaker 9: Joe and I together as so many Americans, are praying 355 00:18:17,480 --> 00:18:19,359 Speaker 9: for the fact that she is going to. 356 00:18:19,359 --> 00:18:20,160 Speaker 5: Be all right. 357 00:18:21,840 --> 00:18:26,960 Speaker 2: Abigail Eden is her name, Jeanie. To what extent does 358 00:18:27,040 --> 00:18:30,720 Speaker 2: this revelation help Joe Biden here at home and making 359 00:18:30,760 --> 00:18:33,600 Speaker 2: the case for why the administration is backing Israel? 360 00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:38,880 Speaker 6: You know, I think that people have to look at 361 00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:42,560 Speaker 6: what has happened over the last several days. I don't 362 00:18:42,600 --> 00:18:45,480 Speaker 6: think in the aftermath of October seventh many of us 363 00:18:45,520 --> 00:18:48,879 Speaker 6: would have thought that we would see these hostages coming home. 364 00:18:49,640 --> 00:18:52,520 Speaker 6: They were obviously held too long, There's obviously a lot 365 00:18:52,640 --> 00:18:56,760 Speaker 6: more there. But the Biden administration does, to a certain extent, 366 00:18:56,880 --> 00:19:01,080 Speaker 6: feel and rightly so, vindicated that his approach, this hard 367 00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:04,920 Speaker 6: driving private diplomacy, has gotten us to where we are 368 00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:08,480 Speaker 6: just today, as you've been reporting, another two days in 369 00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:11,879 Speaker 6: this pause that we all hope gets extended and gets 370 00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:14,960 Speaker 6: everybody out, so they do feel they are headed in 371 00:19:14,960 --> 00:19:18,080 Speaker 6: the right direction. With the pause, there has been enormous 372 00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:22,400 Speaker 6: opportunity to get humanitarian aid into Gaza, much needed there, 373 00:19:22,880 --> 00:19:26,040 Speaker 6: and so all of those factors for anybody who reflects 374 00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:31,280 Speaker 6: seriously on this would help people, and particularly young people 375 00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:34,200 Speaker 6: support what the Biden administration is doing, or at least 376 00:19:34,240 --> 00:19:38,880 Speaker 6: it should. You know, we can't say how people will 377 00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:41,280 Speaker 6: feel in the polls. The numbers are pretty stark for 378 00:19:41,320 --> 00:19:44,119 Speaker 6: them right now. But you know, every once in a 379 00:19:44,119 --> 00:19:46,760 Speaker 6: while a leader has got to say I'm doing the 380 00:19:46,880 --> 00:19:49,680 Speaker 6: right thing regardless of the polls, and in this case, 381 00:19:49,800 --> 00:19:53,440 Speaker 6: Joe Biden is and let the chips fall where they may. 382 00:19:53,720 --> 00:19:56,720 Speaker 6: He has been supporting our ally Israel. He has been 383 00:19:56,840 --> 00:19:59,200 Speaker 6: working hard to get aid in there and working hard 384 00:19:59,240 --> 00:20:01,760 Speaker 6: to get hostage out. I don't know what more you 385 00:20:01,760 --> 00:20:04,639 Speaker 6: could ask for. So to a certain extent, the polls 386 00:20:04,640 --> 00:20:06,760 Speaker 6: have to be damned in this case, whether they're young 387 00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:07,439 Speaker 6: people or not. 388 00:20:10,040 --> 00:20:16,680 Speaker 2: Quite remarkable to see Elon Musk walking around in Israel today. Rick. 389 00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:20,080 Speaker 2: This of course, is following as he says, you know, 390 00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:24,440 Speaker 2: watch my actions, not my words. This follows a severe 391 00:20:24,520 --> 00:20:28,639 Speaker 2: backlash on what we used to call Twitter, following what 392 00:20:28,680 --> 00:20:31,800 Speaker 2: I think we can agree was an anti Semitic repost 393 00:20:31,880 --> 00:20:35,480 Speaker 2: that he made. It's driven some major advertisers away and 394 00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:37,920 Speaker 2: now suddenly, if you're with us on YouTube, you see 395 00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:41,640 Speaker 2: this video of Elon Musk walking around with a kevlar 396 00:20:41,800 --> 00:20:46,120 Speaker 2: vest side by side with Benjamin Nett Yahoo, pulling out 397 00:20:46,160 --> 00:20:49,959 Speaker 2: his phone taking pictures of the carnage left behind as 398 00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:54,320 Speaker 2: they tore him through the area. Here, he described the 399 00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:59,359 Speaker 2: attack by Hamas as evil and jarring and says he 400 00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:04,960 Speaker 2: wants to help help rebuild Gaza after the war. Following 401 00:21:04,960 --> 00:21:07,600 Speaker 2: his conversation with Benjamin et Yahoo, who by the way, 402 00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:10,679 Speaker 2: did not address the anti semitism on X, Rick, what 403 00:21:10,760 --> 00:21:12,320 Speaker 2: in the world is going on here? Is this to 404 00:21:12,440 --> 00:21:14,600 Speaker 2: prelude for a starlink deal in Israel? 405 00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:20,119 Speaker 7: Well, I think it's more a hope that the platform 406 00:21:20,480 --> 00:21:24,840 Speaker 7: X isn't actually being canceled by all their advertisers because 407 00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:30,439 Speaker 7: of the anti Semitic retweet that re X that that 408 00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:32,240 Speaker 7: got him into all this trouble. I mean, this is 409 00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:35,280 Speaker 7: the most high profile apology tour that I've seen in 410 00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:36,080 Speaker 7: a long time. 411 00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:38,439 Speaker 2: You know, he's in the woodshed. 412 00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:41,200 Speaker 7: Only BBN Yahoo can get him out of it, and 413 00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:45,760 Speaker 7: maybe ultimately the untying of all of Bbie's relationships in 414 00:21:45,800 --> 00:21:48,879 Speaker 7: the United States because of it. It's very difficult to 415 00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:53,520 Speaker 7: see how this is anything in his favor. So doing 416 00:21:53,560 --> 00:21:57,320 Speaker 7: a doing a piece of work for for Elon Musk 417 00:21:57,440 --> 00:22:00,960 Speaker 7: by trying to get him out of self and posed exile, 418 00:22:01,600 --> 00:22:04,840 Speaker 7: is going to be maybe his last act as Prime Minister. 419 00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:06,760 Speaker 7: I can't see how this is actually going to do 420 00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:11,800 Speaker 7: anything but put him under the political thumb of voters 421 00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:13,320 Speaker 7: in Israel. 422 00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:16,560 Speaker 2: Well, that would be quite a price for him to 423 00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:18,840 Speaker 2: pay in this case, Genie. It is reported that the 424 00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:22,639 Speaker 2: Israeli government is in talks with Musk about setting up 425 00:22:22,680 --> 00:22:27,760 Speaker 2: Starlink as a backup to its own military communications. What 426 00:22:27,800 --> 00:22:31,800 Speaker 2: do you make of this though, a rehabilitation tour in 427 00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:32,960 Speaker 2: a hot war zone. 428 00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:38,440 Speaker 6: Yeah, to stop advertiser bleeding. I mean it's really astounding. 429 00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:42,960 Speaker 6: And you know, Elon Musk rightly so has really found 430 00:22:43,040 --> 00:22:49,280 Speaker 6: himself caught after he retweeted that horrific anti Semitic posting, 431 00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:53,160 Speaker 6: and you know, the advertisers rightly fled. He's also got 432 00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:57,880 Speaker 6: this controversy going on about anti Semitism with media matters, 433 00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:01,040 Speaker 6: so he's over there trying to shure that up. You know, 434 00:23:01,119 --> 00:23:04,800 Speaker 6: I think really critically important as we think about Benjamin 435 00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:09,280 Speaker 6: nettan Yahoo, is that the Biden administration doesn't stop here. 436 00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:12,399 Speaker 6: I think what we heard from Bernie Sanders over the 437 00:23:12,440 --> 00:23:16,000 Speaker 6: weekend you mentioned Chris Murphy, what we've heard from other 438 00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:20,199 Speaker 6: folks is that this blank check rightly so cannot and 439 00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:24,960 Speaker 6: should not continue, whether we attach it to. Obviously, you 440 00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:28,680 Speaker 6: have to respond to an abide by international laws, certainly, 441 00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:32,280 Speaker 6: but another thing it should be attached to is that 442 00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:36,000 Speaker 6: bibe Net and Yahoo commits to no more settlements and 443 00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:39,560 Speaker 6: he stops his rhetoric that continues to this moment about 444 00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:41,600 Speaker 6: the fact that he will not work with the PLO. 445 00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:45,760 Speaker 6: You can't destroy Gaza, take out Hamas and leave it 446 00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:49,280 Speaker 6: with absolutely no power structure. And if we're going to 447 00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:51,639 Speaker 6: give aid over there, as we should and we have, 448 00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:56,000 Speaker 6: we should make sure that the views of Americans attached 449 00:23:56,040 --> 00:24:00,199 Speaker 6: to that aid are perfectly clear. And yes, the of 450 00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:03,880 Speaker 6: civilian deaths an important part, but there's also the strategic 451 00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:06,240 Speaker 6: part of that. For us, we have an interest in that, 452 00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:08,600 Speaker 6: and that interest needs to be addressed. 453 00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:15,400 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us 454 00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:20,120 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio. 455 00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:21,359 Speaker 5: App, and the Bloomberg Business app, or. 456 00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:23,800 Speaker 1: Listening on demand wherever you get your podcasts. 457 00:24:25,040 --> 00:24:27,000 Speaker 2: There is a deal. It's official now and the White 458 00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:29,520 Speaker 2: House has confirmed this deal to elxtend the truce for 459 00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:32,399 Speaker 2: the release of twenty more hostages. And this follows what 460 00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:34,480 Speaker 2: I think most of us would agree as a successful 461 00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:36,400 Speaker 2: weekend in getting a lot of folks out of arms way. 462 00:24:36,800 --> 00:24:40,199 Speaker 10: Yeah. Absolutely, there's been more than fifty hostages already released 463 00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:43,600 Speaker 10: by Hamas even more Palestinians who were held prison in 464 00:24:43,720 --> 00:24:45,640 Speaker 10: Israel who have been leased. Because of course there's this 465 00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:48,439 Speaker 10: one to three ratio as part of this deal, and 466 00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:50,840 Speaker 10: it is pretty much the same deal terms that will 467 00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:54,240 Speaker 10: go forward for another two days. This Originally this ceasefire 468 00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:57,960 Speaker 10: was expected to expire early hours local time tomorrow and 469 00:24:58,040 --> 00:25:01,080 Speaker 10: instead it'll run through Thursday. But so, of course, despite 470 00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:03,919 Speaker 10: the extension, Net and Yahoo is still maintaining when this 471 00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:07,280 Speaker 10: temporary cease fire is over, the fighting is going to 472 00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:08,000 Speaker 10: keep going. 473 00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:10,439 Speaker 2: Which might be I guess the genius part to the 474 00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:12,920 Speaker 2: way this agreement was written because there was a structure 475 00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:16,600 Speaker 2: for extending it two days ten hostages and it's actually 476 00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:18,639 Speaker 2: working in this case. That doesn't mean it will be 477 00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:22,320 Speaker 2: extended again. With great questions here now in Washington, about 478 00:25:22,359 --> 00:25:25,159 Speaker 2: funding going forward. We talked about this with Rick and 479 00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:28,000 Speaker 2: Jeanie last hour. I'm not sure they agreed, Kayley, because 480 00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:30,520 Speaker 2: you've got Mike Turner, who chairs the Intelligence Committee, saying 481 00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:32,439 Speaker 2: we can't figure out a border deal by the end 482 00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:34,280 Speaker 2: of the year, and without it there is no funding, 483 00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:38,800 Speaker 2: and Chris Murphy, the Democrat from Connecticut saying we're not 484 00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:42,439 Speaker 2: going to prove Israel funding without humanitarian strings attached. So 485 00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:44,359 Speaker 2: you think they're going to get this done by the 486 00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:45,120 Speaker 2: end of December. 487 00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:48,040 Speaker 10: If they do, it's going to be a very hard 488 00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:50,520 Speaker 10: fought battle to actually get it over the finish line, 489 00:25:50,560 --> 00:25:53,520 Speaker 10: in that you have these kind of competing priorities. On 490 00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:57,080 Speaker 10: the one hand, there is bipartisan support largely to continue 491 00:25:57,080 --> 00:25:59,400 Speaker 10: funding Israel, but you are starting to see more pushback 492 00:25:59,440 --> 00:26:03,560 Speaker 10: on the progress Democratic side because of the humanitarian concerns 493 00:26:03,560 --> 00:26:05,959 Speaker 10: in the civilian death tool that continues to just climb 494 00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:09,639 Speaker 10: higher and hire until at least the ceasefire went into place. 495 00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:12,080 Speaker 10: On the other hand, you have Republicans who are just 496 00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:14,840 Speaker 10: wary of spending more money in general, who want to 497 00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:17,640 Speaker 10: try to extract some border security measures out of any 498 00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:21,400 Speaker 10: potential deal, and it's just very unclear to me, Joe, 499 00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:23,639 Speaker 10: how you put all of that together and actually do 500 00:26:23,800 --> 00:26:27,359 Speaker 10: so within a relatively short timeline. I'm not sure that 501 00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:28,080 Speaker 10: they're going to get this. 502 00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:28,440 Speaker 5: Done for you. 503 00:26:28,520 --> 00:26:28,919 Speaker 2: I don't know. 504 00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:29,520 Speaker 1: I don't know. 505 00:26:29,640 --> 00:26:31,520 Speaker 2: Rick was of the mind there might be enough pressure 506 00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:34,640 Speaker 2: to actually make it happen, Jeanie says, call me back 507 00:26:34,680 --> 00:26:37,200 Speaker 2: when you have a serious question. I mean, we can't 508 00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:38,679 Speaker 2: figure out how to find the government here, we're going 509 00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:42,080 Speaker 2: to figure out comprehensive immigration reform. I don't know. Rick's 510 00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:44,280 Speaker 2: been there as well, so I do give him a 511 00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:47,760 Speaker 2: lot of credit for his view. Mick mulvaney, I'm sure 512 00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:50,359 Speaker 2: has strong feelings about all of this. He's back with 513 00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:52,600 Speaker 2: us for his weekly conversation. It's great to see you, sir. 514 00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:56,520 Speaker 2: I'll forego the business cards for everyone because I'm pretty 515 00:26:56,560 --> 00:26:58,840 Speaker 2: sure everyone knows who you are at this point. But 516 00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:00,600 Speaker 2: I don't know your thoughts on that. So do we 517 00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:03,119 Speaker 2: put Chris Turner in a room? 518 00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:05,520 Speaker 5: I hope they're hope they can figure out who I am, 519 00:27:05,520 --> 00:27:09,040 Speaker 5: because I'm still trying to figure it out myself. Looking 520 00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:11,800 Speaker 5: getting folks in a room is not the problem. But 521 00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:15,879 Speaker 5: Kaylee's absolutely right, and there's all these sort of contributing factors. 522 00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:18,040 Speaker 5: That's going to make it difficult. And the only one 523 00:27:18,080 --> 00:27:21,720 Speaker 5: I think she forgot is that the time pressure is 524 00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:24,520 Speaker 5: off now. And I know that's sort of a perverse 525 00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:29,320 Speaker 5: reverse incentive, but typically big deals would get done at 526 00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:32,520 Speaker 5: Christmas and again right before the August recess because that's 527 00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:35,040 Speaker 5: when Congress wants to go home. Well, they don't have 528 00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:37,520 Speaker 5: the sort of the sort of damicles to hold over 529 00:27:37,560 --> 00:27:40,400 Speaker 5: the members right now because the funny deals go beyond Christmas. 530 00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:43,399 Speaker 5: So I think it's highly unlikely anything gets done, at 531 00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:45,159 Speaker 5: least on some of the border security. Israel is a 532 00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:48,399 Speaker 5: little different story. I know there's been some pushback on 533 00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:51,160 Speaker 5: the humanitarian issues and the Democrat side. That's not unexpected, 534 00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:53,720 Speaker 5: but I still think there's broad support for is reel funding. 535 00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:56,480 Speaker 5: If anything gets done by Christmas, that might be the one. 536 00:27:57,880 --> 00:28:01,320 Speaker 10: So, Mick, you don't think two ongoing hot wars are 537 00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:04,600 Speaker 10: enough pressure on the timeline, even if it isn't an 538 00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:07,720 Speaker 10: actual in writing funding deadline. 539 00:28:08,280 --> 00:28:11,200 Speaker 5: You know, when they vote, when they vote for money, Kaylee, 540 00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:13,160 Speaker 5: it's it's mostly to sort of you know, say, hi, 541 00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:15,560 Speaker 5: I voted for something I care about this right, They 542 00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:17,680 Speaker 5: know in the back of their minds It takes a 543 00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:19,520 Speaker 5: long time for that money to go out anyway. So 544 00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:22,679 Speaker 5: if they approve a deal December fifteenth or January fifteenth, 545 00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:25,320 Speaker 5: it doesn't really make that much of a real world 546 00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:27,120 Speaker 5: difference in terms of when the money gets to where 547 00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:29,320 Speaker 5: it needs to be. A lot of the Ukraine money, 548 00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:32,800 Speaker 5: for example, hasn't even gone yet. They've spent billions of 549 00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:35,399 Speaker 5: dollars there. It takes a long time to spend that 550 00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:38,040 Speaker 5: much money. You know, you heard Biden I think last 551 00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:40,120 Speaker 5: week say there was one hundred million dollar package. That's 552 00:28:40,160 --> 00:28:42,480 Speaker 5: a rounding error in some of these these these dollar 553 00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:44,960 Speaker 5: figures they're talking about. So yeah, look there's pressure, but 554 00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:49,040 Speaker 5: the pressure is pr pressure. It's it's not real world pressure. 555 00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:51,240 Speaker 5: It's not like the outcomes are going to change overseas 556 00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:52,920 Speaker 5: and they take an extra thirty days. 557 00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:57,080 Speaker 2: Fifty three days, I believe, until the government starts at 558 00:28:57,160 --> 00:28:59,840 Speaker 2: least running out of money, and that that first trunch. 559 00:29:01,160 --> 00:29:06,160 Speaker 2: I wonder what form this takes then, Mick, because obviously 560 00:29:06,240 --> 00:29:10,120 Speaker 2: we've outlined the challenges here, and you know that of 561 00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:13,600 Speaker 2: course the Speaker already brought Israel funding to the floor 562 00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:17,400 Speaker 2: as a standalone. Will it then be at the mercy 563 00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:20,400 Speaker 2: of a border deal, or is there another swing at 564 00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:24,560 Speaker 2: this that looks like something we're not even aware of now, Yeah, sort. 565 00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:26,800 Speaker 5: Of all the old textbooks are. You sort of take 566 00:29:26,880 --> 00:29:28,959 Speaker 5: him out the window because everybody in DC knows how 567 00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:31,000 Speaker 5: this would have been worked out over the course of 568 00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:33,480 Speaker 5: the last decade and a half, which is there would 569 00:29:33,520 --> 00:29:38,200 Speaker 5: have been some monstrous omnibus bill that covered all of this. 570 00:29:38,800 --> 00:29:41,200 Speaker 5: I just don't see you getting that with Mike Johnson 571 00:29:41,240 --> 00:29:43,720 Speaker 5: as the Speaker of the House, at least not right away. 572 00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:45,440 Speaker 5: I think he's going to have to. If he does 573 00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:46,920 Speaker 5: go that way, it's going to be because it's an 574 00:29:46,960 --> 00:29:50,640 Speaker 5: absolute last resort to get the stuff that the Republicans want. 575 00:29:50,640 --> 00:29:52,080 Speaker 5: But I still don't see that. Look, you're in a 576 00:29:52,080 --> 00:29:55,040 Speaker 5: strange new world. Now we're voting for bipartisan things in 577 00:29:55,080 --> 00:29:58,360 Speaker 5: the House. Could cost you your gavel. I know it 578 00:29:58,400 --> 00:30:01,040 Speaker 5: didn't cost Mike Johnson's gat a couple of weeks back 579 00:30:01,040 --> 00:30:03,800 Speaker 5: when he cut that Ladders deal. But even then there 580 00:30:03,800 --> 00:30:05,920 Speaker 5: were people pushing back saying, how is this different than 581 00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:08,600 Speaker 5: what Kevin McCarthy would have given us? So you take 582 00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:10,440 Speaker 5: the Washington that you know him for the last decade 583 00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:12,280 Speaker 5: and a half and sort of push it aside. You 584 00:30:12,280 --> 00:30:14,400 Speaker 5: don't throw it away, but you push it aside and say, look, 585 00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:16,680 Speaker 5: that might be the way it goes, but that also 586 00:30:16,760 --> 00:30:19,440 Speaker 5: might be the thing that doesn't happen ever. Again, so 587 00:30:19,880 --> 00:30:22,440 Speaker 5: we're at a learning curve with a sort of a 588 00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:24,320 Speaker 5: new regime in the House for sure. 589 00:30:25,600 --> 00:30:28,560 Speaker 10: Yeah, maybe the new Speaker used his one time free 590 00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:31,920 Speaker 10: pass on a continuing resolution with Democratic support, And of course, 591 00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:34,800 Speaker 10: Mick he has said he's not going to support another 592 00:30:34,960 --> 00:30:38,120 Speaker 10: stopgap measure. He wants to get these appropriation bills done. 593 00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:41,800 Speaker 10: Knowing the stance of Mike Johnson and the House, knowing 594 00:30:41,920 --> 00:30:44,720 Speaker 10: the stance or just the reality of what a Democratic 595 00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:47,920 Speaker 10: Senate and Democratic president are going to sign. Who do 596 00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:51,800 Speaker 10: you think ultimately has is likely to come out on 597 00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:52,800 Speaker 10: the losing side of. 598 00:30:52,760 --> 00:30:56,800 Speaker 5: This, Mick, Oh, it's going to be the conservative right 599 00:30:56,800 --> 00:30:59,600 Speaker 5: wing of the Republican Party, because that's the minority right. 600 00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:03,440 Speaker 5: The majority of the House wants to spend money on something, 601 00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:06,080 Speaker 5: and the Senate always wants to spend money on everything. 602 00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:07,840 Speaker 5: I know that's being sort of tongue in cheek, but 603 00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:11,560 Speaker 5: that's not that far from the truth. So the conservative 604 00:31:11,680 --> 00:31:14,640 Speaker 5: wing of the Republican Party is the minority within that party, 605 00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:17,080 Speaker 5: and they're probably going to be the ones that take 606 00:31:17,120 --> 00:31:20,280 Speaker 5: the short shrift here. Why because everything has to be 607 00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:22,920 Speaker 5: by partisan in the Senate. They have to have sixty votes, 608 00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:25,680 Speaker 5: which means it's going to be a Democrat dominated document 609 00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:28,600 Speaker 5: coming out of the Senate. So if anything passes at 610 00:31:28,600 --> 00:31:30,600 Speaker 5: the end of the day, it's going to be something 611 00:31:30,600 --> 00:31:33,240 Speaker 5: that most conservatives in the House aren't going to like. 612 00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:38,560 Speaker 2: I wonder your thoughts on what we saw over the weekend, Mick, 613 00:31:38,560 --> 00:31:40,800 Speaker 2: and how an event like this might change the entire 614 00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:45,960 Speaker 2: conversation we're having. And that's the latest by a group 615 00:31:46,000 --> 00:31:51,240 Speaker 2: of hoothy rebels who fired two ballistic missiles at a 616 00:31:51,360 --> 00:31:54,120 Speaker 2: US naval vessel. This is the USS Mason that was 617 00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:58,480 Speaker 2: responding to a distress call off Yemen, as apparently in 618 00:31:58,640 --> 00:32:03,520 Speaker 2: Israeli billionaires can tanker was being hijacked. Something like this 619 00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:07,240 Speaker 2: could have taken on a very different form. They fired 620 00:32:07,240 --> 00:32:09,680 Speaker 2: those missiles and they landed about ten miles away from 621 00:32:09,680 --> 00:32:12,360 Speaker 2: the navy vessel. And I'm sure that the Navy has 622 00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:16,240 Speaker 2: a lot of methods up its sleeve to counteract a 623 00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:18,080 Speaker 2: missile attack like that. But if that had gone in 624 00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:20,600 Speaker 2: a different direction, what would it mean for the debate 625 00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:21,400 Speaker 2: here in Washington. 626 00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:25,120 Speaker 5: Oh, dramatically different. That's what everybody's afraid of, Joe, everybody here, 627 00:32:25,280 --> 00:32:27,080 Speaker 5: everybody in d C. I'm not in DC right now. 628 00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:29,760 Speaker 5: Everyone in DC. Of course, anybody who pays attention to 629 00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:33,720 Speaker 5: this worldwide is worried about expansion. They're worried about a 630 00:32:33,800 --> 00:32:37,480 Speaker 5: bleed over into Lebanon with Hisbela. They're worried about Iran's intervention. 631 00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:42,200 Speaker 5: They're worried about Russia's role. So far, so far, the 632 00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:45,440 Speaker 5: Israelis have kept a pretty everybody's been able to keep 633 00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:48,520 Speaker 5: it sort of concentrated around Gazi. Yes, there have been 634 00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:53,040 Speaker 5: incursions across the Lebanon Israel border. There have been events 635 00:32:53,080 --> 00:32:54,960 Speaker 5: like you just described with the hooties and so forth. 636 00:32:55,240 --> 00:32:58,360 Speaker 5: These have been sporadic. However, that hasn't been sort of 637 00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:02,400 Speaker 5: an organized expand of this dispute. I got to give, 638 00:33:02,840 --> 00:33:04,800 Speaker 5: you know, some of the GCC countries credit for that, 639 00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:07,800 Speaker 5: because I think they're probably interested in think keeping things 640 00:33:07,840 --> 00:33:11,600 Speaker 5: as quiet and as contained as possible. Everybody's interested in that, 641 00:33:11,760 --> 00:33:14,480 Speaker 5: with the possible exception of Hamas's ball and maybe Iran. 642 00:33:14,600 --> 00:33:17,080 Speaker 5: So yeah, that's the kind of stuff that's the outlier, right, 643 00:33:17,120 --> 00:33:19,440 Speaker 5: that's the Black Swan. That's what you really worry about, 644 00:33:19,520 --> 00:33:23,880 Speaker 5: is this this this exogenous shock to the system takes 645 00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:26,040 Speaker 5: this from an incident in Gaza that blows up in 646 00:33:26,080 --> 00:33:28,040 Speaker 5: the entire in the entire Gulf coast, in the in 647 00:33:28,080 --> 00:33:30,719 Speaker 5: the Gulf region. So that's a yeah, that's the kind 648 00:33:30,760 --> 00:33:33,040 Speaker 5: of stuff against everybody's attention over the weekend. 649 00:33:33,840 --> 00:33:36,400 Speaker 2: Well, would would it mean funding more likely? Or would 650 00:33:36,440 --> 00:33:38,120 Speaker 2: it mean a more difficult debate? 651 00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:42,560 Speaker 5: Now more likely and more quickly if things really got 652 00:33:42,600 --> 00:33:45,360 Speaker 5: out of hand right right now, you've got it's a convenience, right. 653 00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:47,600 Speaker 5: You could argue about border security, you can argue about 654 00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:50,560 Speaker 5: Ukraine funding, you can argue about Taiwan funding. Because things 655 00:33:50,600 --> 00:33:52,520 Speaker 5: have sort of calmed down, and I don't want to 656 00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:55,040 Speaker 5: say that they're fit, they're not finically, that's I hope 657 00:33:55,040 --> 00:33:57,280 Speaker 5: I'm making myself clear. It's calmed down a little bit 658 00:33:57,320 --> 00:33:59,800 Speaker 5: from where it was, but it's still very, very tense. 659 00:34:00,480 --> 00:34:04,760 Speaker 5: But you can still you've got you've got the ability 660 00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:07,160 Speaker 5: to take your time a little bit. If Iran is 661 00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:10,960 Speaker 5: what launching you know, nuclear weapons at Israel or vice versa, 662 00:34:11,040 --> 00:34:12,720 Speaker 5: you don't have time to think about that kind of stuff. 663 00:34:14,680 --> 00:34:17,040 Speaker 10: Well, make of course all of US were glued to 664 00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:19,239 Speaker 10: the developments in the Middle East over the region, but 665 00:34:19,320 --> 00:34:21,880 Speaker 10: there were other things in the news over the weekend 666 00:34:21,920 --> 00:34:26,759 Speaker 10: as well, including this very long conversation that Republican Congressman 667 00:34:26,840 --> 00:34:30,600 Speaker 10: from New York, George Santos, had on X Spaces, of course, 668 00:34:30,640 --> 00:34:32,400 Speaker 10: formerly known at Twitter. Joe, I think we have a 669 00:34:32,440 --> 00:34:34,919 Speaker 10: little bit. Yeah right, he's of course facing down a 670 00:34:35,040 --> 00:34:38,839 Speaker 10: very likely expulsion vote, potentially as soon as this week. 671 00:34:38,920 --> 00:34:43,440 Speaker 2: And yeah, rans yeah, extended. 672 00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:46,879 Speaker 10: Yes, you can choose your you can choose your wording here. 673 00:34:46,920 --> 00:34:49,520 Speaker 10: But this is a little taste of Congressman Santos. 674 00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:55,200 Speaker 11: The United States Congress. There's Felon's Doore, there's people with 675 00:34:55,360 --> 00:34:59,800 Speaker 11: all sorts of sisty backgrounds, and all of a sudden, 676 00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:03,440 Speaker 11: George Santos is the very Magdalene of the United States Congress. 677 00:35:04,960 --> 00:35:08,359 Speaker 10: He also called himself a Republican it girl. At one 678 00:35:08,440 --> 00:35:11,480 Speaker 10: point he said, though he knows he'll get expelled when 679 00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:15,239 Speaker 10: this expulsion resolution goes to the floor, But Nick, does 680 00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:17,880 Speaker 10: he have a point about everybody else? 681 00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:21,719 Speaker 5: No, no, he does. The guy doesn't have a point 682 00:35:21,719 --> 00:35:25,239 Speaker 5: about anything. Look, you could have a really intelligent conversation 683 00:35:25,520 --> 00:35:28,440 Speaker 5: about ethics in Washington. D c they're not nearly as 684 00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:30,440 Speaker 5: bad as everybody believes them to be. I've been there 685 00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:33,319 Speaker 5: for fifteen years. It's not like Hollywood makes it out 686 00:35:33,320 --> 00:35:35,120 Speaker 5: to be. Are there folks there who are doing stuff 687 00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:36,800 Speaker 5: they shouldn't be doing? Yeah, but this five hundred and 688 00:35:36,840 --> 00:35:38,960 Speaker 5: thirty five of them. Show me any group of five 689 00:35:39,080 --> 00:35:41,440 Speaker 5: hundred and thirty five Americans, and they're not. All of 690 00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:43,239 Speaker 5: them are going to be as pure as the driven snow. 691 00:35:43,480 --> 00:35:47,160 Speaker 5: But no to try and distract from his own whatever 692 00:35:47,239 --> 00:35:49,440 Speaker 5: it is by, you know, sort of saying, well, everybody 693 00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:51,239 Speaker 5: else does it. It's just it's par for the course 694 00:35:51,280 --> 00:35:53,799 Speaker 5: with this guy. Look, step back and realize what's getting 695 00:35:53,840 --> 00:35:55,759 Speaker 5: ready to happen here. We just had a long conversation 696 00:35:55,960 --> 00:35:58,239 Speaker 5: about how difficult it is for the Republicans in the House, 697 00:35:58,320 --> 00:36:01,239 Speaker 5: especially but in Washington generally to get anything done because 698 00:36:01,280 --> 00:36:03,920 Speaker 5: the margins are so tight, and yet they are fully 699 00:36:04,000 --> 00:36:08,560 Speaker 5: expected now to discharge, to expel one of their own 700 00:36:08,880 --> 00:36:12,200 Speaker 5: into a seat that likely becomes a Democrat. How bad 701 00:36:12,239 --> 00:36:14,040 Speaker 5: does it have to be with George Santos for that 702 00:36:14,080 --> 00:36:17,080 Speaker 5: to happen. Let's take some faith in the system under 703 00:36:17,120 --> 00:36:20,400 Speaker 5: these circumstances. Say, look, even though it doesn't help them politically, 704 00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:22,200 Speaker 5: it hurts them politically. It looks like the Republicans are 705 00:36:22,239 --> 00:36:24,640 Speaker 5: getting ready to kick this nut job out. The system 706 00:36:24,760 --> 00:36:27,640 Speaker 5: is working, and that's this takeaway from George Santos, not 707 00:36:27,680 --> 00:36:29,680 Speaker 5: whether or not he's Mary Magdalene or an it girl, 708 00:36:29,800 --> 00:36:31,880 Speaker 5: or whether everybody else does it. 709 00:36:32,719 --> 00:36:34,319 Speaker 2: I kind of want to know who the girl is. 710 00:36:35,760 --> 00:36:38,960 Speaker 2: But so is he out this week? Mick? I think 711 00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:42,080 Speaker 2: you just answered that question. If this becomes a privileged resolution, 712 00:36:42,360 --> 00:36:43,799 Speaker 2: it's just a matter of days then, right. 713 00:36:44,440 --> 00:36:47,080 Speaker 5: Yeah, it's the first it's the first opportunity. It is it. 714 00:36:47,280 --> 00:36:49,719 Speaker 5: It's as soon as he The sooner the better. I 715 00:36:49,719 --> 00:36:51,719 Speaker 5: don't think they're waiting on They don't. They're not sitting 716 00:36:51,760 --> 00:36:53,719 Speaker 5: around going, well, we need George's vote on this one 717 00:36:53,800 --> 00:36:57,040 Speaker 5: last thing. Even mind the government is fund is past Christmas, 718 00:36:57,400 --> 00:36:58,759 Speaker 5: That's not how they're looking at this thing. I think 719 00:36:58,800 --> 00:37:01,960 Speaker 5: the sooner we're done to talking about George Santos, the 720 00:37:02,000 --> 00:37:03,759 Speaker 5: happier the Republicans in the House are going to be. 721 00:37:05,320 --> 00:37:08,440 Speaker 10: Hm, we only have about a minute left, Mick. But 722 00:37:08,480 --> 00:37:09,720 Speaker 10: who is the it girl? 723 00:37:09,920 --> 00:37:11,520 Speaker 2: I thought you'd follow it, you do you have? 724 00:37:11,640 --> 00:37:13,360 Speaker 5: I thought it was Kayley. I thought I thought you 725 00:37:13,400 --> 00:37:15,360 Speaker 5: were the easy. 726 00:37:15,440 --> 00:37:17,080 Speaker 4: Oh, you flatter me. 727 00:37:17,880 --> 00:37:19,480 Speaker 5: But right now, I mean when we will do this 728 00:37:19,520 --> 00:37:22,239 Speaker 5: next week, Maybe it's Nicki Haley. It just is she's 729 00:37:22,239 --> 00:37:24,280 Speaker 5: had a really good run of a couple of weeks. 730 00:37:24,680 --> 00:37:26,759 Speaker 5: I don't think she's got a chance yet to dig 731 00:37:26,800 --> 00:37:30,480 Speaker 5: into Trump's leadership, but she certainly cemented herself so far 732 00:37:30,480 --> 00:37:33,520 Speaker 5: as the preferred anti Trump candidate. That probably is there's 733 00:37:33,520 --> 00:37:37,360 Speaker 5: not enough anti Trump votes to give anybody the nomination 734 00:37:37,440 --> 00:37:39,800 Speaker 5: right now. But you said, are pretty good couple of weeks. 735 00:37:39,960 --> 00:37:41,840 Speaker 5: There's a lot of Republicans on the Hill wishing that 736 00:37:41,840 --> 00:37:44,719 Speaker 5: they'd see more of Nicki Haley and less of George Santos. 737 00:37:45,920 --> 00:37:48,480 Speaker 2: Wow. I didn't expect a serious answer to that. Yeah, 738 00:37:48,520 --> 00:37:51,400 Speaker 2: for starters. But now you know, now Donald Trump's going 739 00:37:51,440 --> 00:37:52,799 Speaker 2: to call you because I think he wants to be 740 00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:53,640 Speaker 2: the girl. Mick. 741 00:37:54,400 --> 00:37:56,600 Speaker 5: Yeah, you know that's he's going to be the nominee 742 00:37:56,600 --> 00:37:58,880 Speaker 5: and that should be good enough for him. 743 00:37:59,120 --> 00:38:02,040 Speaker 2: Wow. Well, if you still feel that way, we won't 744 00:38:02,040 --> 00:38:03,960 Speaker 2: break that to Dickie Haley yet. It's great to see you, 745 00:38:04,000 --> 00:38:06,200 Speaker 2: Mick every week at this time. Mick mulvaney with us 746 00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:09,160 Speaker 2: on Bloomberg Sound On wherever you are. Get back to 747 00:38:09,320 --> 00:38:11,520 Speaker 2: Washington safely. We look forward to doing again here at 748 00:38:11,520 --> 00:38:14,920 Speaker 2: the Table McK mulvaney, I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines. 749 00:38:15,560 --> 00:38:18,520 Speaker 2: It's the fastest show in politics, with breaking news today 750 00:38:18,560 --> 00:38:21,760 Speaker 2: from Washington on this Monday. Glad you're with us only 751 00:38:21,800 --> 00:38:26,120 Speaker 2: on Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to the Sound on podcast. 752 00:38:26,160 --> 00:38:29,279 Speaker 2: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 753 00:38:29,320 --> 00:38:31,759 Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts, And you can 754 00:38:31,800 --> 00:38:34,799 Speaker 2: find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one 755 00:38:34,840 --> 00:38:39,360 Speaker 2: pm Eastern Time at Bloomberg dot com