Speaker 1: Hello everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm
Speaker 1: Ryan Warmley, joined today by Andrew Rickson and by Chris
Speaker 1: welsh Fellows. We took last week off because there was
Speaker 1: no game. We certainly weren't going to do predictions for
Speaker 1: the Pro Bowl. We are back to do our predictions
Speaker 1: show for the Super Bowl. Now we have. The game
Speaker 1: is Chiefs Eagles. Obviously, this is a repeat from a
Speaker 1: couple of years ago. It was actually the game I
Speaker 1: was rooting for. I am like very much out of
Speaker 1: a limb like of the Final four. That is, this
Speaker 1: was kind of the matchup I wanted to see. I
Speaker 1: think the Eagles are the best team that I've watched
Speaker 1: play this year. The Chiefs have their devil magic. We're
Speaker 1: gonna break it all down and see which way we
Speaker 1: think this one is going. Ericson what was your thoughts
Speaker 1: just on the matchup in general before we dive into
Speaker 1: some of these props.
Speaker 2: I know that there's a large boycott of people that
Speaker 2: don't want to watch the Super Bowl at all. They
Speaker 2: refuse to watch the Chiefs go for a threepeat and
Speaker 2: the Eagles try to win a Super Bowl after being
Speaker 2: in the last couple of years. I love the matchup.
Speaker 2: I think the Eagles are a really good team, very
Speaker 2: well rounded. They're team that has played the Chiefs before,
Speaker 2: so I think that they match up well with Kansas City.
Speaker 2: And at the same time, what does Kansas City do
Speaker 2: every single game? It's close, So I think if we
Speaker 2: get a close Super Bowl, I mean, do we want
Speaker 2: to watch a blowout? I don't, And if the Chiefs
Speaker 2: are playing, it's probably not going to be a blowout.
Speaker 2: So I'm looking forward to the good game and we'll
Speaker 2: see if the Chiefs can win three in a row.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Welsh, I am super not here for the like
Speaker 1: not gonna watch the game crowd Like. It's one thing
Speaker 1: to be like, oh I don't want to watch the
Speaker 1: Chiefs again, and you know we just saw the smash
Speaker 1: up two years ago. It's another entirely to suggest you're
Speaker 1: actually not going to watch the last game. We're gonna
Speaker 1: get of the NFL for seven months or whatever. It is, Like,
Speaker 1: that's ridiculous to me.
Speaker 3: Wait, cry baby, it's cry baby stuff.
Speaker 1: Give me up.
Speaker 4: What do you do? What do you want? Did you
Speaker 4: want the Rams to be in the Super Bowl?
Speaker 3: No, you didn't want the m It's fine, Like, sure,
Speaker 3: it's annoying. There's the parody conversation, like, oh chi, it's.
Speaker 4: A phenomenal game. So like if you're if you literally
Speaker 4: at the.
Speaker 3: Point of crying about that, like, okay, do something else,
Speaker 3: Like it's a great game. It's not a garbage game.
Speaker 3: We're getting we didn't get to be fair. You know
Speaker 3: in baseball terms. We said this before, but like Diamondbacks
Speaker 3: Rangers World Series from two years ago. Nobody cared about
Speaker 3: that but me or a Ranger fan, you as a
Speaker 3: Diamondback fan, that's stunk. This is the matchup that you
Speaker 3: want in the Super Bowl. Yes, maybe there's lacking parody,
Speaker 3: but you want the best teams. So I think that's
Speaker 3: just cry baby stuff. That's just people looking for attent.
Speaker 3: You say that you're just looking for attention. Can you
Speaker 3: not like the game?
Speaker 1: Sure?
Speaker 3: Can you not like Patrick Mahomes and the devil magic?
Speaker 3: Sure you can have all those things, but don't tell
Speaker 3: us it's not an incredible you know, great quarterback, greatest
Speaker 3: active quarterback. We have a running back that just went
Speaker 3: for over two thousand, Like it's all the pieces of
Speaker 3: what you want for a Super Bowl.
Speaker 4: Now they just need to live it.
Speaker 1: Up.
Speaker 3: It needs to be a highly competitive game that probably
Speaker 3: comes down to the end. I'm here for it, even though,
Speaker 3: like you know, these guys could disappear. It could be
Speaker 3: a snap than a snap, and I'd be like, oh, okay, great,
Speaker 3: it's fine, It's totally fine.
Speaker 4: It'll be a great competitive game.
Speaker 1: I want to let everybody know if you have a chance,
Speaker 1: that you do have a chance. Rather to win a
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Speaker 4: Again.
Speaker 1: As for a sign Mike Evans bucks helmet for free,
Speaker 1: courtesy of Pristineauction dot com. All right, let's quickly look
Speaker 1: at how we did in the conference championship games. We
Speaker 1: actually had one of our better weeks of the playoff
Speaker 1: run here. Ericson, you had Brian Robinson over thirty five
Speaker 1: and a half rushing yards. He got thirty six, so
Speaker 1: nicely done on that one. Faite j Brown also went
Speaker 1: over four and a half receptions for you and the
Speaker 1: Eagles one, so you nailed that game across the board.
Speaker 1: For Welsh, Jalen Hurts, while he did have three rushing touchdowns,
Speaker 1: he fell short of your call of thirty two and
Speaker 1: a half yards on the ground. Jade Daniels did go
Speaker 1: over twitter and twenty four passing yards for you, though,
Speaker 1: so you hit that one. And then on the AFC side,
Speaker 1: it was kind of the reverse Ericson you were wrong
Speaker 1: on both Khalil Shakir and Travis Kelce going over there
Speaker 1: receiving yardage props. Welsh, you hit both euro props with
Speaker 1: Alan two plus touchdowns and xavier' worthy over fifty and
Speaker 1: a half yards, And of course both of you guys
Speaker 1: were correct on the Chiefs winning. We're going to try
Speaker 1: and keep the good picks coming here for Eagles Chiefs
Speaker 1: in Super Bowl fifty nine Super Bowl Licks as some
Speaker 1: are calling it. Let's start on the eagle side, Eric Sson,
Speaker 1: I'll start with you. What's your player pick? By the way,
Speaker 1: just to let everybody know, we're gonna do a pick
Speaker 1: each on the eagle side, a pick each on the
Speaker 1: chief side, a pick for the game, and also kind
Speaker 1: of won wild card pick. Just kind of whatever you
Speaker 1: wanted to.
Speaker 4: We in do gatorade. We do gatorade.
Speaker 1: If you guys want to talk gatorade, no you can.
Speaker 1: I don't feel knowledgeable enough to do that, Eric said,
Speaker 1: get his going on the eagles side.
Speaker 4: Yellow is superior gatoring, by the way, just throwing that out.
Speaker 1: It's a taste, it's light blue.
Speaker 2: For the rest my edge does not exist in the
Speaker 2: gatorade markets for this particular matchup. So I'm gonna go
Speaker 2: with Devontae Smith is gonna go over fifty and a
Speaker 2: half receiving yards. I know that Dallas Goddard has kind
Speaker 2: of been He's actually his receiving prop has been the
Speaker 2: most bet at least it was last week in terms
Speaker 2: of people betting the over, because Goddard has been on
Speaker 2: a tear for the last couple of weeks. But I
Speaker 2: think about the Smith is kind of the underrated part
Speaker 2: of this Eagles offense who could have a big game.
Speaker 2: You look at the last five games the Eagles have
Speaker 2: been underdogs, he has seventy or more receiving yards in
Speaker 2: five of those games. Two times that they've been underdogs
Speaker 2: this year seventy nine or more receiving yards. So when
Speaker 2: they have to throw more in games where they're potentially trailing,
Speaker 2: they can't just hand them all to Saque thirty times.
Speaker 2: Demant de Smith is a lot more involved. So I
Speaker 2: like Davanta Smith fifty yards. The projections have him closer
Speaker 2: to fifty four receiving yards, so I think that he's
Speaker 2: going to go over and historically when they have faced
Speaker 2: the Chiefs in the past, Ivanta Smith has had monster
Speaker 2: games ninety nine yards, one hundred yards, and one hundred
Speaker 2: and twenty two yards, and three queer games against the
Speaker 2: Kansas City Chiefs. I think that he's going to make
Speaker 2: some of these marquee plays where you have see DeVonta
Speaker 2: Smith making those sideline grabs. I think it's going to
Speaker 2: have a couple of those in this particular matchup. The
Speaker 2: Chiefs like to play press. We'll bump and run on
Speaker 2: the outside, and I think that Jalen Hurt's going to
Speaker 2: be forced to make some tight window throws, and I
Speaker 2: think Smith's going to be on the receiving end of
Speaker 2: a lot of them.
Speaker 4: So I like them.
Speaker 2: Want to Smith where everyone's looking at Dallas Goddard as
Speaker 2: this monster gam pivoting looking at the number two receiver,
Speaker 2: the slim Reaper is going to have a big game.
Speaker 4: Numbers are big too on Goddard. I just want to
Speaker 4: throw it was already like fifty two.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's completely dissipated, Like I looked at Goddard because
Speaker 3: they've been going at Goddard a ton, but it is
Speaker 3: already completely built in. Whether it is implied if you
Speaker 3: want to talk about the prediction standpoint, it's implied. If
Speaker 3: we want to tell you guys, hey, God it to
Speaker 3: have a big day, or it's just baked in, as
Speaker 3: you're kind of saying, it's it's baked in because of
Speaker 3: the big performances out there. There's no value on Goddard
Speaker 3: right now unless he goes Nune. So I love your
Speaker 3: Smith pick by the.
Speaker 1: What do you think about the receptions Welst's four and
Speaker 1: a half. I like the over on that one too.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I also like that.
Speaker 3: I you know, in my predictions here are both tied
Speaker 3: to I think the number one strengths on both teams,
Speaker 3: but the deficiencies. They both have a pretty in our
Speaker 3: face deficiency. The Eagles it's the pass game, and the
Speaker 3: Chiefs it's the run game. You know, they're not getting
Speaker 3: in with Pacheco a ton. It took Patrick Mahomes to
Speaker 3: kind of be the guy last week in the running side.
Speaker 3: But on that eagle side, when it is put to
Speaker 3: the test and they are having to throw the ball,
Speaker 3: it feels like we're just so limited in aj Brown
Speaker 3: where I agree like, I think DeVante Smith he finds
Speaker 3: those open spots, and you know, Jalen Hurts is looking
Speaker 3: to make quicker decisions, and I think Smith kind of
Speaker 3: works a little bit better in that. So I like
Speaker 3: the receptions and this is one of those clear cut
Speaker 3: ericson and I all season long on betting Pros was like,
Speaker 3: if I loved receptions, they would love yards and that
Speaker 3: worked out a majority of the time. I think both
Speaker 3: of those are in play, especially I don't know what
Speaker 3: the odds are, is it plus money on four and
Speaker 3: a half?
Speaker 1: The overs it's minus one eleven the plus money bet.
Speaker 1: By the way, there's like a lot of minuses on Smith.
Speaker 1: People are interested in him. The plus I like kind
Speaker 1: of his most receiving yards plus six hundred. I would
Speaker 1: not at all be surprised if Smith led this group
Speaker 1: in receiving yards.
Speaker 4: Another little sneaky one with the Smith one.
Speaker 3: Also, if you guys listen to Betty Pros, I smashed
Speaker 3: a ladder bet with Worthy two. So that was my
Speaker 3: big thing last week. I went fifty on this show,
Speaker 3: but then I went fifty sixty seventy on the ladder side.
Speaker 4: Dante Smith might be a.
Speaker 3: Ladder option as well, as ericson You pointed out, he's
Speaker 3: had some really great games. If there is any playing
Speaker 3: from behind or the running game isn't working to full capacity,
Speaker 3: they're gonna probably be throwing a decent amount to Smith
Speaker 3: and he might be able to not eagle crazy or
Speaker 3: anything like that. But I could almost see laddering similar
Speaker 3: to what we did with Worthy last week, with Smith
Speaker 3: going up to seventy or something like that. So just
Speaker 3: another plus money option.
Speaker 1: I like that a lot. Actually, Welsh, what's your pick
Speaker 1: on this eagle side?
Speaker 3: Okay, So like As I mentioned, I feel very chalky,
Speaker 3: and both of my picks are going to be on
Speaker 3: the number one most positive thing on each offense on
Speaker 3: what they've got to do. So if we are going
Speaker 3: to the Eagles, the number one thing has got to
Speaker 3: be sekuon Barkley.
Speaker 4: And it's a big number.
Speaker 3: It's maybe it's a donkey play here because it's at
Speaker 3: like one eleven, but I'm gonna go with the rushing
Speaker 3: yards on Sakwon Barkley.
Speaker 4: The rushing attempts are.
Speaker 3: Between twenty one point five and twenty two point five,
Speaker 3: so they're implying a whole bunch, and we have seen
Speaker 3: some big rushing performances. Twenty six carries, twenty five carries.
Speaker 3: I mean he's gone twenty five or higher in four
Speaker 3: of his last five. So the play actually might be
Speaker 3: rush attempts, but thrown into that when you look at
Speaker 3: these rushing yards, he has hit this one to eleven
Speaker 3: five straight weeks. Last week it only took him fifteen
Speaker 3: rush attempts to do so, So I think that's a
Speaker 3: little bit in play here that I think you're going
Speaker 3: to be able to run. The Chiefs have given up
Speaker 3: one hundred yards rushing over the last four weeks where
Speaker 3: they had really kind of honed in early in the year.
Speaker 3: But of the last four games, they've given up four
Speaker 3: and a half per carry, and you've got the best
Speaker 3: runner in the NFL. They've given up twenty five carries
Speaker 3: in two of the last four games. But you have
Speaker 3: been able to run a little bit more on the Chiefs.
Speaker 3: That's the way that the Eagles are gonna win this game.
Speaker 3: He's making big plays. I think his longest rush might
Speaker 3: be in play as well. It feels black, but if
Speaker 3: the Eagles are close into this, they're going to be
Speaker 3: running Saquon Barkley all game line long. I do think
Speaker 3: the over rush attempts is in play here as well,
Speaker 3: but one to eleven gets me that big touchdown play
Speaker 3: that he's going to go in with, So it's a
Speaker 3: very chalky play. Also point out if you go on
Speaker 3: to betting pros, this is a plug for betting pros
Speaker 3: in you have access to the premium tools. Eight of
Speaker 3: the last I think ten games, you know he's also
Speaker 3: gone over this also. I believe it's seven of the
Speaker 3: last or maybe eight. Eight of the last ten running
Speaker 3: backs have gone over their rushing yard prop against the Chiefs. Now,
Speaker 3: these are lower numbers, but it has been a smash
Speaker 3: all Sea and long against the over number against the Chiefs.
Speaker 3: So I'm throwing that out there. It's a super big number. Ericson,
Speaker 3: you might hate it, but I gotta go Saquon here
Speaker 3: in this big play.
Speaker 1: Ericson, what do you think? Is it a sucker's bed
Speaker 1: or is it just hey, it's saquad in the Super Bowl.
Speaker 1: Let's bet the over because that's what we want to do.
Speaker 2: Well, I guess for me, I'm kind of thinking of
Speaker 2: it the same way we talked about Jalen Hurts two
Speaker 2: weeks ago. Where was the total rushing prop versus the
Speaker 2: longest rush and technically neither of them hit. Even though
Speaker 2: Jalen Hurts had a seventeen yard rushing touchdown, it was
Speaker 2: called back on a penalty that would have hit the
Speaker 2: over for longest rush, but he would have been under
Speaker 2: I think I know his prop was kind of all
Speaker 2: over the place. It was under.
Speaker 4: It was thirty. Yeah, so maybe he would have hit.
Speaker 2: The overall on his rushing yards if that's seventeen yeard
Speaker 2: rush had counted. But I mean, Seguon, Barkley's gonna rip
Speaker 2: off a big run. So just take the over his
Speaker 2: longest rush, like he could do it literally on the
Speaker 2: first play of the game, Like you want that dopamine
Speaker 2: hit boom. Do you really want to grind out all
Speaker 2: the way to the fourth quarter. I guess you can
Speaker 2: always have hope that, but it could be the fourth
Speaker 2: quarter in Saque needs a twenty four yard run for
Speaker 2: the Eagles to win, and you can hit it then too.
Speaker 2: So I mean, if I'm chasing that dopamine high, that
Speaker 2: dope mean rush, I think it's I want to take
Speaker 2: the longest rush play because if Sikone's gonna get over
Speaker 2: one hundred rushing yards, he's not gonna be doing it
Speaker 2: picking up seven yards here, seven yard like he's gonna
Speaker 2: rip off a big run, and the chance of him
Speaker 2: hitting it over twenty three and a half yards. I
Speaker 2: looked at the numbers and it's basically been a fifty
Speaker 2: to fifty proposition mostly this year, which is why the
Speaker 2: number is what it is. So I like just going
Speaker 2: after the longest rush.
Speaker 3: He has only hit that three of his last six games, though,
Speaker 3: the over rush, where he has gone over the rushing
Speaker 3: yard total in five straight games, So just throwing that
Speaker 3: out there like I'm with you, but it's not as much.
Speaker 2: Of it, but it's but that's exact number. I looked
Speaker 2: at it. A lot of his games he has like
Speaker 2: a rush of like twenty two yards. So again, yes
Speaker 2: he has not hit twenty three and a half per se,
Speaker 2: but he hit twenty two. Like, the fact is the
Speaker 2: guy is ripping off twenty yard rush is basically every
Speaker 2: single week. And if he's not gonna be able to
Speaker 2: do it in the super Bowl, that's what I would,
Speaker 2: you know, I just prefer.
Speaker 4: That I'm with you. I'm with you on it.
Speaker 1: He's plus four fifty first touchdown score or he's also
Speaker 1: plus four to fifty last touchdown scored. I kind of
Speaker 1: like that last better. I can just like, if the
Speaker 1: Eagles are gonna win this game, I could see him
Speaker 1: kind of being the closer breaking off along like kind
Speaker 1: of heartbreaking, like Dad.
Speaker 2: What he's gonna do is he gonna slide down at
Speaker 2: the one yard line and then you're gonna be sad.
Speaker 1: If it's that late, then yes, then that would that
Speaker 1: would break me. But I honestly, I kind of actually
Speaker 1: just want to bet both first and last touchdown. Like
Speaker 1: I think he's gonna be one of.
Speaker 2: Those just parley him together, dude, it'd be great.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that would be quite a fade e. Let's go
Speaker 1: to the chief side ericson what's your favorite player prop
Speaker 1: On this one.
Speaker 2: I'm diving deep here into the most irrelevant player. Samaj
Speaker 2: p Ryan is gonna go over six and a half
Speaker 2: receiving yards. And when we're talking about soccer plays right second, Barkley,
Speaker 2: he's the stud greatest running back season arguably ever, so
Speaker 2: you don't feel really bad about betting it over on him.
Speaker 2: But Samaj p Ryan is on the total other end
Speaker 2: of the spectrum when it comes to, well this guy
Speaker 2: have a role in the offense in this particular game,
Speaker 2: because this particular number he has basically hit every single
Speaker 2: week of the entire season. So he has at least
Speaker 2: six and a half receiving yards six of his last
Speaker 2: seven games played, fourteen of his last fifteen he has
Speaker 2: hit the over. The thing that makes me nervous about
Speaker 2: this one is the fact that he got on the
Speaker 2: very last play.
Speaker 4: Last play. I'm glad you said it, because that's what
Speaker 4: I was gonna say. It took the last play of
Speaker 4: the game.
Speaker 2: Yes, so I almost wish he didn't make it last
Speaker 2: week or like in the AFC Championship game, because he
Speaker 2: would still be hitting at the higher rate. He wouldn't
Speaker 2: have he'd be coming off a game where he didn't
Speaker 2: hit it, so I'd feel almost more confident. But the
Speaker 2: fact of the matter is, like he's consistently getting to
Speaker 2: this number, So I think that six and a half
Speaker 2: is a number that's more than reachable. He can get
Speaker 2: it on one play. We know that pe Ryan when
Speaker 2: he is on the field, that's usually in third down situations.
Speaker 2: So yeah, the projections have him closer to eight and
Speaker 2: eleven receiving yards, and he's just been doing it constantly,
Speaker 2: whether Pajecko's been in the lineup, whether a Creem Hunt's
Speaker 2: be in the lineup. And you have a situation too,
Speaker 2: where I mean, if there is a two minute drill,
Speaker 2: which you could very well see happening, if the Chiefs
Speaker 2: are trailing in a game, which they really haven't been
Speaker 2: in a lot of situations this year, well, he RAN's
Speaker 2: probably gonna be on the field. So yeah, I'm gonna
Speaker 2: take the over six and a half receiving yards. Again,
Speaker 2: he can do it on one play. Hopefully it's not
Speaker 2: in the last play, but it'll be a sweat that
Speaker 2: you can have the entire game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well shit, I mean we if to pull back
Speaker 1: the curtain. The next play we're about to talk about
Speaker 1: is Mahomes. So three of these first four predictions are
Speaker 1: defa Tae Smith, Saquon Barkley, Patrick Mahomes, and then we
Speaker 1: have Ericson picking samaj p Right. Do you have any
Speaker 1: strong feelings on this one?
Speaker 3: Nah, this is very betting pros though. This is Ericson
Speaker 3: getting into like where's my edge and the betty? He
Speaker 3: got very betting pros with us on this one, Like
Speaker 3: we talked the decent amount of betting pros too. Sometimes
Speaker 3: we get cute. We're like, how did we not bet
Speaker 3: on this that we were getting?
Speaker 4: I get it.
Speaker 3: I get like, this hits a ton It takes one
Speaker 3: essentially takes one play. They like to use them out
Speaker 3: of the pass game. I think this could definitely hit.
Speaker 3: But it's a very betting prosy type of play. If
Speaker 3: you're looking for some action.
Speaker 4: I don't know if.
Speaker 3: I'm looking for somemaj p Ryan in the Super Bowl
Speaker 3: as in my predictor side, but I'm not going to
Speaker 3: be shocked because it's like legit one third and four.
Speaker 3: Samaj p Ryan some play action out of a backfield,
Speaker 3: gets a screen pass. He's going to get nine yards
Speaker 3: and Ericson's going to be cashing.
Speaker 2: Well, it's going to be you know, we've seen it,
Speaker 2: Damian Williams. Man, he's going to be running that wheel
Speaker 2: route smaj p Ryan first touchdown now, yeah, well.
Speaker 4: Now you're you know you're sick. Oh you're sick of man.
Speaker 1: Well, let's get into your Mahomes pick here.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so second just absolutely super shocky. But I'm gonna
Speaker 3: go with pass attempts here. Thirty six and a half
Speaker 3: is the number uh in the playoffs. Very interestingly too,
Speaker 3: he just hasn't been throwing. They've had just a lot
Speaker 3: of like maintained stuff. He ran eleven times in the
Speaker 3: last game against Buffalo, but he only threw thirty six
Speaker 3: or twenty six times. He through twenty five times against Houston. Again,
Speaker 3: kind of having having these in lockstep, I think this
Speaker 3: game is going to be very close, and both teams
Speaker 3: have to establish what they're best at. Eagles running the
Speaker 3: ball and the Chiefs is going to be pass the ball.
Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes had thrown thirty seven pass attempts in all
Speaker 3: six of the final six games of the regular season,
Speaker 3: So six of the final regular season games he had
Speaker 3: gone thirty seven or more pass attempts across the board.
Speaker 3: That's where I think he's going to be at again.
Speaker 3: I think this game is going to feel more in
Speaker 3: the Eagles hands while the chief I think that we'll
Speaker 3: talk about the next play in the kind of wild
Speaker 3: card you play, I think the Chiefs are going to
Speaker 3: have those moments, and I do think we'll have some
Speaker 3: devil magic towards the end, but I think there will
Speaker 3: be a feel of the Eagles kind of having a
Speaker 3: little bit more maintainance, and that is going to require
Speaker 3: the Chiefs to be throwing the ball a ton to
Speaker 3: the b Ryans, to the Worthies, to the Marquis Browns,
Speaker 3: to the tight ends. That's what they're going to be
Speaker 3: doing to keep in to So thirty six point five
Speaker 3: over pass attempts, that is my Patrick mahomes bet on
Speaker 3: the chief.
Speaker 1: Side, Eric Son, any quick thoughts on this one.
Speaker 2: No, I mean I think that you want your best playmaker,
Speaker 2: you know, having the ball in his hand as many
Speaker 2: times as possible. So whatever it's going to be him running,
Speaker 2: throwing the ball, getting the ball to these guys in space.
Speaker 2: I think that the one thing when we're talking about
Speaker 2: weaknesses of this game, I think one of the weakest
Speaker 2: units is the Chiefs run game.
Speaker 4: Right.
Speaker 2: I mean with Kream Hunt and Isaiah Pacheco, the can't
Speaker 2: generate explosive plays. I don't think that they're going to
Speaker 2: be hey, like, let's establish the run. It's like, no,
Speaker 2: it's gonna be Mahome scrambling, Mahomes making plays with his
Speaker 2: arm with all of his receivers. So I think that
Speaker 2: betting overs with Mahomes is probably the thing that I'm
Speaker 2: afraid about with the most with Mahomes, and is just
Speaker 2: the rushing yards, right, because I.
Speaker 4: Almost went to that, but they chalked it up.
Speaker 2: That one's really popular because everyone knows he runs more
Speaker 2: in the playoffs. But the thing that you have to
Speaker 2: keep in mind is the kneel downs. Like he loses
Speaker 2: six or seven yards sometimes on kneel down, so you
Speaker 2: could be up and then he takes a six yard
Speaker 2: loss on a kneel down to win the game, and
Speaker 2: then you lose the bet.
Speaker 4: So your rush attemps look at rushing tips, rush.
Speaker 2: A temps would be the way if you're doing rushing
Speaker 2: yard or rushing props on mahomes, but agreed, I like
Speaker 2: the attempts as well.
Speaker 1: This ain't the little eighty bitty teeny tiny Bowl. This
Speaker 1: is Super Bowl fifty nine. Get in on the action
Speaker 1: at DraftKings Sportsbook and official sports betting partner of Super
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Speaker 1: All right, guys, before we get to our official game picks,
Speaker 1: let's throw a wildcard prediction the way of our audience. One.
Speaker 1: Each ericson will start with you.
Speaker 2: I'm going to go with Marque's Hollywood Brown is going
Speaker 2: to catch a pass on Kansas City's first drive. So
Speaker 2: I looked at Marquise Brown, who's basically been back with
Speaker 2: the offense over the last four games that the Chiefs
Speaker 2: have played, and there's a very clear effort to get
Speaker 2: him in the ball, especially early on an AFC Championship
Speaker 2: game Chiefs first drive, he caught two passes on the
Speaker 2: first two pass attempts. Immediately after halftime, he had the
Speaker 2: first target from Patrick Mahomes and this was also true
Speaker 2: in the Division round again, targeted on the opening drive.
Speaker 2: He's been targeted on the opening drive and the Chiefs
Speaker 2: of their last four games that he has played, And
Speaker 2: something that kind of caught my eye when I was
Speaker 2: looking at some of the next gen stats when it
Speaker 2: comes to Mahomes. So he's posted three of his four
Speaker 2: highest EPA per dropback numbers over the last four games.
Speaker 2: And the one thing that's really changed is who's been
Speaker 2: in the lineup. It's been Marquise Brown. Now that necessarily
Speaker 2: hasn't reflected in Brown's box score, but having him in
Speaker 2: the offense compared to guys like a Justin Watson or
Speaker 2: a Juju Smith Schuster, it's making a difference. Defits is
Speaker 2: are having to play Mahomes a little bit differently because
Speaker 2: Marcus Brown is adding another layer of Hey, we got
Speaker 2: to make sure we count for this guy as opposed
Speaker 2: to some of these other players that I think will
Speaker 2: have been lesser in the Chiefs offense. So Marcus Brown
Speaker 2: has had high target rate perute run for most of
Speaker 2: the year, he's been healthy, and like I said, like
Speaker 2: there's been a clear effort to get in the ball
Speaker 2: early on. So while everyone is kind of looking at Okay,
Speaker 2: it's gonna be Worthy, it's gonna be Kelsey, it's gonna
Speaker 2: be you know, the running backs into the backfield, I
Speaker 2: think Marcus Brown is a player that is going to
Speaker 2: play a lot of snaps in this game, probably running
Speaker 2: the most routes. Same with Xavier Worthy. I think he's
Speaker 2: gonna catch a pass. So I like his odds plus
Speaker 2: one seventy on DraftKings Sports. But to catch a pass
Speaker 2: on Kensey's first drive. I know you can get longer
Speaker 2: shot odds if you just look at he catches the
Speaker 2: first pass in the game, if the Chiefs get the
Speaker 2: ball first, or he catches the first pass from Mahomes,
Speaker 2: So you can get longer odds at those, but I
Speaker 2: like basically almost a two to one for just to
Speaker 2: catch pass in the first drive. Doesn't even need to
Speaker 2: be the first one for Mahomes, but in that opening script,
Speaker 2: I think he's gonna be involved. So I like Markey's
Speaker 2: Brown to catch a pass on the first drive.
Speaker 4: I think it was three and a half.
Speaker 3: I think it's like plus three fifty or three seventy
Speaker 3: five for him to catch the first pass from Mahomes,
Speaker 3: and I like that one.
Speaker 4: I love this one.
Speaker 3: I told Ericson before we started the show. I went
Speaker 3: and looked and I actually was gonna jump on the
Speaker 3: side of he catches the first pass from Mahomes and
Speaker 3: that was like around three and a half to one,
Speaker 3: and I was like, I'm so slick.
Speaker 4: Ericson's gonna see this. He needs to be so mad
Speaker 4: at me.
Speaker 3: And then Ericson had it on the sheet and I
Speaker 3: was like, come on, man, like he already got that
Speaker 3: for me. So I like, I completely love this one
Speaker 3: because for whatever reason, they love Mark east Brown on
Speaker 3: that opening drive. That's just where they want to go.
Speaker 3: So I like the safer side of you picking on
Speaker 3: the first drive instead of the very first catch, because
Speaker 3: what'd you say?
Speaker 4: It was like plus one plus one seventy.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's that's pretty good. And I love that the
Speaker 2: whole first drive and it doesn't matter who gets the
Speaker 2: ball first, so you don't have to sweat, oh if
Speaker 2: they don't win the coin toss and things like that.
Speaker 2: So yeah, you can get longer shot odds just playing
Speaker 2: into the Hey, I think Marcus Sproad's gonna be involved early.
Speaker 2: You can get longer shot odds. But plus one seventy
Speaker 2: for just that opening drive, just a matter of just
Speaker 2: does he catch the ball? I feel pretty comfed he's
Speaker 2: gonna get a target and then if he drops it, well,
Speaker 2: the process was right.
Speaker 4: The process was right exactly.
Speaker 1: Well, what's your wildcard pick in this game?
Speaker 3: Mine's not as wild CARDI that was my favorite, and
Speaker 3: more I think about it, it's like I do. It's
Speaker 3: a plus money play, which is fun, but it's I
Speaker 3: guess it's a little bit more choky. It's not as like,
Speaker 3: you know, I'm not doing like Travis Kelsey engagement after
Speaker 3: the win or anything like yeah, I like nonsense like
Speaker 3: that or or interesting one is coin toss to the
Speaker 3: Chiefs and win if you like the Chiefs. That was
Speaker 3: like two and a half to one, but there's a
Speaker 3: plus money play on the first half. So I like
Speaker 3: the on the spread for the first half it was
Speaker 3: plus one ten was able to find it, and it's
Speaker 3: you know between like you know, one and a half.
Speaker 4: On the full spread.
Speaker 3: The first half is almost just kind of a chalk
Speaker 3: up for both sides.
Speaker 4: But if you're playing.
Speaker 3: For the Chiefs to be up, which they did a
Speaker 3: majority of the time in the regular season, they were
Speaker 3: up at half, that you can get plus money for
Speaker 3: them to be up by you know, half of a score.
Speaker 3: So if you can envision this tie game up even
Speaker 3: Chiefs down by a point or two, they drive down
Speaker 3: at the end of the half, they kick a field goal,
Speaker 3: they're up by one. We're getting plus money on that play. Again,
Speaker 3: you know, dominant team in the first half this entire season,
Speaker 3: a much higher air raid. I think the Eagles are
Speaker 3: going to slow down some of this clock, so you
Speaker 3: could have an Eagles, you know, coming down to the
Speaker 3: final two minutes. They've had a six minute drive. They
Speaker 3: just take a small lead. Chiefs drive it down at
Speaker 3: the end, they get up at half. So to Chiefs
Speaker 3: spread first half plus money if you can find it
Speaker 3: plus one ten, not as fun as the Marquise Brown one.
Speaker 4: But you know, there are some decent plays.
Speaker 3: I'd also maybe look at, like DeVante Smith catch on
Speaker 3: the first drive for the Eagles as well, But I
Speaker 3: don't really want to do a whole lot of catching
Speaker 3: for the Eagles and then throwing the ball on the
Speaker 3: first drive.
Speaker 1: Let's go to our game picks here, ericson who are
Speaker 1: you taking?
Speaker 2: I'm taking the Chiefs because they're going to win. That's
Speaker 2: what I'm doing. I'm taking the Chiefs. I'm not gonna
Speaker 2: bet against Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl. It just
Speaker 2: doesn't work unless they're facing Tom Brady. And he's not
Speaker 2: facing Tom Ray. Tom Brady's in the booth. So maybe
Speaker 2: that's the layer that people need to be paying attention to,
Speaker 2: that Tom Brady's gonna be at this game. And you know,
Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes not won Super Bowls where Tom Brady has
Speaker 2: been in the same stadium, if you want to make
Speaker 2: that type of argument. But all the trends back the
Speaker 2: Chiefs winning. They've won eighteen of the last games as favorites,
Speaker 2: Mahomes seventeen to three. In the postseason. The only losses
Speaker 2: have been to Brady and Joe Burrow nine postseason games,
Speaker 2: they've won a row, and he's eight to zero against
Speaker 2: Vic Fangio led defenses. So I just think that with
Speaker 2: extra time to repair, they've been here, don that, and
Speaker 2: I think they're gonna complete the three peat, whether we
Speaker 2: like it or not. I don't know if this is
Speaker 2: a I don't know if I'm in the minority here
Speaker 2: as a Patriots fan. You know, obviously someone that witnessed
Speaker 2: a dynasty happen. I'm I'm I'm for dynasties. I don't
Speaker 2: know if that's that that's unusual for me coming from
Speaker 2: a well obviously being a fan of a dynasty or
Speaker 2: the most recent one. But I like seeing this, like
Speaker 2: this isn't the first time it's been a dynasta. There's
Speaker 2: ynasties every single ten to twenty years. It seems like
Speaker 2: in the CHIEFSHS is the latest one. So I like
Speaker 2: seeing teams dominate.
Speaker 1: I know that that's so here's the problem, And we
Speaker 1: don't have a ton of time, so we don't need
Speaker 1: to have like a whole big conversation. But I just
Speaker 1: have to say, like it's not that there's this new dynasty,
Speaker 1: it's that there was no gap We literally saw the
Speaker 1: handing of the torch in that AFC Championship game where
Speaker 1: Brady faced Mahomes and then like literally like Brady was
Speaker 1: still playing great football when Mahomes started this run of
Speaker 1: the earliest season has ever ended is overtime of the
Speaker 1: AFC Championship Game since he became a starter, Like, there
Speaker 1: was no like down period where Okay, there's some parody
Speaker 1: and everybody in the AFC has a chance, Like if
Speaker 1: you're not a fan of the Patriots or the Chiefs,
Speaker 1: then you're in the AFC. It's like, we just slayed
Speaker 1: this dragon. We finally got rid of Brady and the
Speaker 1: Patriots and already we're seven years into this new dynasty
Speaker 1: for the Chiefs. There was no respite. No. That is
Speaker 1: to me the most frustrated part as a fan of
Speaker 1: a team in the AFC is there was no break
Speaker 1: because you said, like, oh, every you know, ten fifteen
Speaker 1: years is new dynasty. This this went ended one right
Speaker 1: into the another right away, And I hated that, Well,
Speaker 1: what's your pick.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm I'm just gonna tag on, you know, on
Speaker 3: the dynasty thing too. Forty nine er fan, you know,
Speaker 3: we had the we have the nineties, you know, late
Speaker 3: eighties into the nineties and stuff.
Speaker 4: I don't really have a problem.
Speaker 3: I think it just it's it feels bigger in our
Speaker 3: face because it's just like it's a crybaby era, like
Speaker 3: we all can just like at all times just cry
Speaker 3: about everything, and it feels like we have a bigger
Speaker 3: we have a bigger outlet to be like my gosh,
Speaker 3: the refs and mahomes, they're in it together, and it's
Speaker 3: just you know, it's like fun, it's it's me worthy.
Speaker 3: So we've made it into this more of a thing
Speaker 3: at the end of the day, Like I don't have
Speaker 3: a problem with it, Like you're like greatness.
Speaker 4: I actually appreciate the thought that I walk.
Speaker 3: Out of maybe an era of being like wow, I
Speaker 3: watched like the greatest players.
Speaker 4: Of that time. So I again, I just it's maybe it's.
Speaker 3: My you and I personality is a little bit different
Speaker 3: than some like people are annoyed seeing dynasties. They don't
Speaker 3: want to see it. I also got over it as
Speaker 3: a Niner fan when we had five Super Bowls no
Speaker 3: one and then it was like Niner, Steelers Cowboys, I think,
Speaker 3: and then the Steelers jumped over it. That was broken
Speaker 3: out of my brain. So I'm like, Okay, we're not
Speaker 3: the number one anymore, so it's out of it. But yeah,
Speaker 3: I think Erickson laid it out perfectly. I'm going to
Speaker 3: go with the Chiefs here. I think the script is out.
Speaker 3: It is like the last.
Speaker 4: Drive, like Mahomes is going to do the last drive thing.
Speaker 3: I don't think that. I don't think the Chiefs defense
Speaker 3: is gonna end up winning this one. I think this
Speaker 3: is going to be a Chiefs playing from behind into
Speaker 3: the late fourth quarter and Mahomes is going to do
Speaker 3: his magic again and they are going to take this down.
Speaker 3: It's hard to bet against them. I know a lot
Speaker 3: of people want to. No one cares about plus money.
Speaker 3: By the way, the amount of Eagles bets have to
Speaker 3: be on money line and not the plus one and
Speaker 3: a half. No one's playing that nonsense. I'm gonna play
Speaker 3: with the Chiefs because I think they are a dramatically
Speaker 3: ridiculous team.
Speaker 4: And I asked it asked this question last week.
Speaker 3: I think it was to a few people that what
Speaker 3: is what's more damaging if it's taken away and maybe
Speaker 3: it'll throw in your face if you know the Eagles
Speaker 3: inability to pass the ball or the Chief's inability to run,
Speaker 3: Like what is more detrimental to teams?
Speaker 4: And I feel like the inability.
Speaker 3: To pass the ball, if that goes back to the Eagles,
Speaker 3: is much more detrimental than the Chiefs being able to
Speaker 3: not run the ball, because the Chiefs thrive and live
Speaker 3: off of that. Obviously, Saquan is a monster and he
Speaker 3: is the outlier of running backs. But if they are
Speaker 3: taken away, if that passing game is taken away, and
Speaker 3: Jalen Hurts is in that spot where he's taken sacks
Speaker 3: again and he's indecisive and not getting the ball to
Speaker 3: aj Brown, we know how that goes.
Speaker 4: We know exactly how that goes.
Speaker 3: I think it's more detrimental if the Chiefs cannot throw
Speaker 3: I'm sorry the Eagles can't throw, than it is that
Speaker 3: the Chiefs can't run. And I think that could be
Speaker 3: a very important factor in this. So I'm joining ericson
Speaker 3: with the Chiefs.
Speaker 1: No explanation, Just give me a pick over under forty
Speaker 1: eight and a half for the total in this one, Welsh.
Speaker 3: I you know what I wanted to play under. I'm
Speaker 3: gonna play with the I'm gonna play the over like
Speaker 3: it's it's hard not to. So I'm gonna go over Erickson.
Speaker 2: I'm an over guy under now there, it is easy,
Speaker 2: easy under easy under.
Speaker 4: A twelve to twelve to ten super Bowl?
Speaker 2: What do you think is gonna gonna be like twenty
Speaker 2: four to twenty one?
Speaker 1: It's super defense.
Speaker 2: I mean, look, here's the thing. So the Chiefs are
Speaker 2: the least explosive offense in the NFL. They're good, but
Speaker 2: they're not explosive. And their defense is number one in
Speaker 2: fewus misstackles. So if anyone can corral Sable Markley to
Speaker 2: just not rip off eighty r touchdowns left and right,
Speaker 2: well it's the Chiefs defense. Forty eight and a half
Speaker 2: is way too high. So I'm gonna take me under.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the Eagles to win. It's probably a
Speaker 1: suckers bet because they're facing the Chiefs. So we've seen
Speaker 1: this play out a bunch of times. I said this,
Speaker 1: you're doing this to yourself, man, I said this before
Speaker 1: you know. Obviously I watched every Ravens game very close.
Speaker 1: So they played both of these teams the only time
Speaker 1: this entire year. I walked away from a game thinking
Speaker 1: the Ravens got outplayed by a better team. Was against Philly. Now,
Speaker 1: there were obviously other losses where you know, the Ravens
Speaker 1: kind shot themselves in the foot whatever. That Chiefs game, famously,
Speaker 1: the first game of the year, the toe just barely
Speaker 1: out of bounds. The only time this year I walked
Speaker 1: away thinking, Wow, that team is a really good and
Speaker 1: they completely outperform the Ravens was that Eagles loss, and
Speaker 1: I can't get that out of my mind. So it's
Speaker 1: actually not plus one to five anymore. Now in DraftKings,
Speaker 1: it's even money, which is unfortunate. But I'm gonna go
Speaker 1: with the Eagles to win this game. We'll get here
Speaker 1: on that. Just give us a dynasty the NFC, man,
Speaker 1: that's all I'm asking. I can't get over that point.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I totally agree.
Speaker 1: Yes four welsh and ericson. I'm Ryan Warmley. Thanks everybody
Speaker 1: for tuning in and enjoy the Super Bowl. We'll see
Speaker 1: again whenever we're back. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy
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