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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here.

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Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,

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Speaker 3: We need your help to build the future of independent

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Speaker 3: news media and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints

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Speaker 3: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Thursday. We have an

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Speaker 3: amazing show for everybody today. What do we have, Crystal.

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Speaker 2: Lots of things going on here in the world. So

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Speaker 2: we've got some updates with regard to the markets and

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Speaker 2: China in particular, saying that hey, we're not anywhere close

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Speaker 2: to a deal. There aren't even talks going on so

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Speaker 2: as of seven fifty six right now, futures are down,

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Speaker 2: so we'll get into all of that. We've also got

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Speaker 2: Jeff Stein joining with the very latest with regards to

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Speaker 2: the economic prospects and the trade war. We're also taking

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Speaker 2: a deep dive into Trump's plummeting approval ratings, specifically with

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Speaker 2: regard to some of the groups that he had really

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Speaker 2: improved his performance among. We're talking about young men, we're

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Speaker 2: talking about Latinos, how they are feeling about all of this,

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Speaker 2: and significantly, how much tariffs are really weighing on his

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Speaker 2: economic approval at this point. We're going to have an

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Speaker 2: update on the very latest with regard to Ukraine where

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Speaker 2: the potential peace talks are. There a lot of moving

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Speaker 2: parts there, so break that down for you. We're also

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Speaker 2: taking a look at the continued crackdown on quote unquote

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Speaker 2: anti Semitism, Jordan Peterson entering the debate and Dave Smith

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Speaker 2: weighing in and responding to that, so that'll be an

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Speaker 2: interesting one. We've got a bunch of updates for you

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Speaker 2: with regard to the Trump administration's deportations and use of

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Speaker 2: the Alien Enemies Act. One thing that we wanted to

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Speaker 2: take a look at this morning is ICE held a

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Speaker 2: US citizen for ten days wrongly in detention, and they've

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Speaker 2: now been caught and called out for just blatantly lying

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Speaker 2: about the chain of events there. So we'll dig into that,

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Speaker 2: and we're going to be joined also by Abdula El Sayed.

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Speaker 2: He is running for Senate in the state of Michigan

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Speaker 2: and he is the first major candidate to receive Bernie

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Speaker 2: Sanders endorsement. That is going to be a heated primary.

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Speaker 2: Abdelah Sayad comes from the left of the party. He

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Speaker 2: has said what Israel is doing in Gaza is genocide.

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Speaker 2: He is for medicare for all, so really interesting to

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Speaker 2: check in with him and see how his campaign is

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Speaker 2: getting off to here in the early days.

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Speaker 1: That's right, We're going to talk to him.

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Speaker 3: And he's also got a pro Israel opponent who's already

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Speaker 3: in the race, so it'll be interesting to see how

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Speaker 3: that is.

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Speaker 2: She gets a lot of APAC money, Hailey Stevens.

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Speaker 1: So many people are saying, can.

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Speaker 4: An interesting matchup there in Michigan.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, we're just looking literally at the numbers, that's right. Yes,

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Speaker 3: Before we get to that, thank you to everybody who

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Speaker 1: We really appreciate you.

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Speaker 3: Obviously, we've had an awesome show week of shows, and

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Speaker 3: we have another one tomorrow, the Friday Show. Just a

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Speaker 3: If you cannot afford it, no worries, just go ahead

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Speaker 3: and like and subscribe to this video, and or if

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Speaker 1: To a friend. So there we go. All right, let's

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Speaker 1: go ahead and get to tariffs.

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Speaker 3: As Crystal said, there has been some major movement Donald Trump, well,

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Speaker 3: it appeared originally he was blinking on China. He's blinking again,

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Speaker 3: but the Chinese may not be being very receptive to

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Speaker 3: that blink. Here was some of the comments that he

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Speaker 3: made in the Oval office. Let's take a listen.

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Speaker 5: I think most of them will, and I think we're

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Speaker 5: going to treat him very fairly well guarded. Were you

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Speaker 5: worried about what the one hundred and forty five percent

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Speaker 5: tariffs were doing too small businesses there at the US

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Speaker 5: that why you're bringing in No, no, no, I haven't

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Speaker 5: brought it down. I haven't brought it so one hundred

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Speaker 5: and forty five I haven't brought it down. I said,

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Speaker 5: it's a high tariff. It is a high tear, but

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Speaker 5: I haven't brought it down. It basically means China's not

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Speaker 5: doing any business with us, essentially, because it's a very

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Speaker 5: high number. So when you add that to the price

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Speaker 5: of a product, you know a lot of those products

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Speaker 5: aren't going to sell. But Johina's not doing any business.

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Speaker 5: They were doing they were doing one point one trillion dollars.

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Speaker 5: Think of the one point one trillion dollars, you know

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Speaker 5: what that is. And it was just very unfair to us,

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Speaker 5: and we were doing very little, relatively very little with them.

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Speaker 5: It was a one side and very one sided.

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Speaker 1: But we get along.

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Speaker 5: I get along very well with presidency, and I hope

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Speaker 5: we can make a deal. Otherwise, we'll set a price

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Speaker 5: and hopefully they'll come here and they'll contribute, and if

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Speaker 5: they don't, that's okay.

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Speaker 3: Otherwise they'll set a price. We'll see about that though,

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Speaker 3: and what that price is. Let's get in some indications

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Speaker 3: to put this up there on the screen. Major discussions

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Speaker 3: inside of the White House quote to cut levies by

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Speaker 3: half in some cases, though Trump has yet to make

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Speaker 3: a final decision, the Trump administration is considering actually unilaterally

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Speaker 3: slashing its steep tariffs on Chinese imports, in some cases

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Speaker 3: almost by half, some fifty or sixty five percent, and

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Speaker 3: the administration is also considering a tiered approach similar to

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Speaker 3: one proposed by the House Committee on China late last year.

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Speaker 3: Thirty five percent levees for items at the US deems

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Speaker 3: not a threat to national security, one hundred percent for

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Speaker 3: those deemed strategic interests. Perhaps the most important thing in

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Speaker 3: this is actually that the quote the bill would propose

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Speaker 3: phasing in these levees over a five year period, which

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Speaker 3: would mean basically a complete change in the way that

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Speaker 3: these tariffs are being implemented. From fifty to sixty five percent.

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Speaker 3: It would instead be a phase in period. Another way

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Speaker 3: to describe that would be something that maybe you could

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Speaker 3: have done from the very beginning without igniting massive market

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Speaker 3: turmoil chaos, dropping freight traffic by some sixty to eighty

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Speaker 3: five percent. You know, Crystal, It's interesting. It appears that

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Speaker 3: one of the things that really forced Trump's hand on

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Speaker 3: this was a meeting with the CEOs of Target and

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Speaker 3: Walmart where they told him, in no uncertain terms, sir,

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Speaker 3: if you do not have a change to the status quo,

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Speaker 3: we will have shortages on shelves in two weeks time,

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Speaker 3: and that in one month to two months time you

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Speaker 3: will see full blown price increase as well as massive

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Speaker 3: empty shells all across the country. And I think it

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Speaker 3: was then that it set in for Trump what he

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Speaker 3: actually had instituted and had done.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and there even if today we get the announcement okay,

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Speaker 2: forget it, we're rolling it all back, We're not doing

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Speaker 2: this at all, there will still be very significant reverberating impacts.

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Speaker 4: And you know, we all.

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Speaker 2: Got kind of a lesson in this during COVID the

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Speaker 2: way that a disruption does not You can't just snap

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Speaker 2: your fingers and Okay, we're back to normal now and

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Speaker 2: everything flows the way that it used to. So I

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Speaker 2: was digging into some like transport and logistics Twitter this morning,

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Speaker 2: and they were talking about the fact that it takes

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Speaker 2: about thirty days to ship from China to la It's

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Speaker 2: about forty five to Houston, it's about fifty five.

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Speaker 4: To New York.

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Speaker 2: So if you do the math on when Liberation Day

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Speaker 2: started and when you're really going to have the you know,

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Speaker 2: noticeable impacts in terms of what is coming in from China.

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Speaker 2: Talking about the beginning of May. That's a week away

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Speaker 2: where you're really going to start to see this show

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Speaker 2: up in la first, and then you know, rippling across

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Speaker 2: the country. Like I said, even if there's a rollback,

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Speaker 2: you are going to have significant problems and it is

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Speaker 2: going to take a while to untangle things.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: That is before we even talk about the fact that

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Speaker 2: China's out saying hey, there are no deal talks and

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Speaker 2: if they want to talk, okay, that's fine, but we

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Speaker 2: are not going to unilaterally submit to your bullying. And

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Speaker 2: it seems like, you know, just to recap the sort

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Speaker 2: of Trump administration position. First Trump comes out and says

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Speaker 2: that it's not going to be one forty five. One

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Speaker 2: forty five is very high. We're going to do something different,

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Speaker 2: and that's the real signal of okay, they're completely backing

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Speaker 2: off of this. Then you got Scott Bessen out saying, well,

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Speaker 2: we haven't really you know, he didn't say we're backing

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Speaker 2: off the tariffs right now. Now you have this indication

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Speaker 2: from China that there are not talks that are ongoing.

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Speaker 2: So there's a lot of you know, there's a lot

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Speaker 2: of question marks about whether in fact they're going to

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Speaker 2: move off this position in the immediate term, because it

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Speaker 2: feels like the Trump administration soager is trying to get

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Speaker 2: some sort of face saving capitulation from China, and China

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Speaker 2: doesn't seem particularly willing to want to give them that.

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Speaker 2: So we're at a bit of an impath right now,

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Speaker 2: and it is totally unclear whether we are moving off

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Speaker 2: of these extraordinarily high rates anytime soon exactly.

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Speaker 3: And let's put the next one, please up on the screen.

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Speaker 3: This was from Scott Beston, who immediately actually walked.

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Speaker 1: Back of the Wall Street Journal report.

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Speaker 3: He said that Trump has not made any unilateral offer

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Speaker 3: to cut tariffs, but let's just be very clear. If

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Speaker 3: there is any back down from one point forty five

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Speaker 3: for where things are right now.

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Speaker 1: It would be a unilateral cut.

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Speaker 3: One of the reasons though, that they're constantly trying to

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Speaker 3: juice the markets is because they we see.

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Speaker 1: The riding on the wall.

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Speaker 3: We had bond yields almost go up to five percent

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Speaker 3: just two days ago. It's come down slightly from there,

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Speaker 3: but there has been and I repeat, there has been

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Speaker 3: no negotiation with the Chinese. In fact, the Chinese are

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Speaker 3: the ones who are making that very clear. Let's go

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Speaker 3: ahead and put this video up on the screen. This

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Speaker 3: was a video that was released by the Chinese Foreign Ministry.

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Speaker 3: They say, we have said from Taiwan, tariff and trade

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Speaker 3: wars have no winners. Protectionism leads nowhere. To decouple is

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Speaker 3: to self alienate. They continue, this tariff war is launched

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Speaker 3: by the United States. We have made it very clear

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Speaker 3: that China does not look for a war, but neither

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Speaker 3: are we afraid of it. We will fight. If fight,

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Speaker 3: we must. Our doors are open if the US wants

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Speaker 3: to talk. If a negotiated solution is truly what the

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Speaker 3: US wants, it should stop threatening and blackmailing China and

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Speaker 3: seek dialogue based on equality, respect and mutual benefit. So

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Speaker 3: to keep asking for a deal while exerting extreme pressure,

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Speaker 3: they say, is stort.

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Speaker 1: I'm waiting for the subtitle.

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Speaker 3: It's not the right way to deal with China and

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Speaker 3: it simply will not work. So that was an important

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Speaker 3: speech there given in Beijing by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs,

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Speaker 3: and it indicates everything that I've also even heard from

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Speaker 3: behind the scenes, where you know this idea that there

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Speaker 3: are major talks happening like there were, let's say, with

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Speaker 3: the Japanese. It's just not reality, the only thing that

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Speaker 3: is currently open in dialogue with China is routine diplomatic

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Speaker 3: you know, routine like diplomatic talk, nothing.

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Speaker 1: To do with tariff or de escalation.

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Speaker 3: There has been only you know what, one phone call

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Speaker 3: with President Shihinping and with President Trump the Secretary of

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Speaker 3: Best end. There's been no high level meeting there that

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Speaker 3: has happened. There's been no foreign exchange on the tariffs.

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Speaker 3: And in fact, it's the Trump administration now realizing truly

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Speaker 3: for the first time, what this is all going to

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Speaker 3: look like. I want to point everybody to an interview

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Speaker 3: that actually just came out this morning by a guy

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Speaker 3: named David wu and actually he was the former analyst

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Speaker 3: over at Bank of America, just a Trump supporter, somebody

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Speaker 3: who's supported not only Donald Trump but even renegotiation of trade.

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Speaker 3: Something he warns of in his latest episode is that

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Speaker 3: you are going to see widespread disruption. Like you said,

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Speaker 3: even if you back off today with shortages in shelves,

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Speaker 3: price increases that will hit in the next two week,

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Speaker 3: two month period. All of this is unavoidable, even if

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Speaker 3: there was a capitulation tomorrow, which does not seem very likely.

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Speaker 3: And the really astounding part of all of this, and

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Speaker 3: this does, I guess speak to the wisdom of the

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Speaker 3: stock market, is that the reason why I have been

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Speaker 3: paying attention here to the market is because of how

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Speaker 3: much of leading and a real time indicator of what

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Speaker 3: the future is expected to look like. And when you

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Speaker 3: saw all of the retailers that are so heavily reliant

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Speaker 3: on China and we see the freight traffic numbers just

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Speaker 3: absolutely plunge, let's you know, I mean you said you

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Speaker 3: dug into the numbers. Let's really underscore for people what

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Speaker 3: a sixty percent drop in freight traffic means, Like that

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Speaker 3: is insane. That means that all of the routine just

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Speaker 3: in time deliveries that people rely on are done. I

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Speaker 3: mean the inventory the way that this could be a

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Speaker 3: whole podcast of itself, in the way that justin time

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Speaker 3: delivery and inventory cost has basically moved it to the

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Speaker 3: US businesses. They don't want to pay to be able

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Speaker 3: to house a lot of the things they're taking up

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Speaker 3: space to cost them, rant to cost them all these

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Speaker 3: other things. So they rely on these just in time

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Speaker 3: very very nimble supply chains, which are great for efficiency

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Speaker 3: but terrible for being autonomous. Well, we didn't really change

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Speaker 3: a lot of that after COVID. In fact, we got

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Speaker 3: became more reliant on the Chinese. Our trade deficit went up.

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Speaker 3: Now you may say, yeah, let's do something about it.

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Speaker 3: I agree, but guess what. It costs a lot of

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Speaker 3: money coming from the United States government to be able

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Speaker 3: to incentivize any of that, and we don't see a

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Speaker 3: single dollar that has yet been appropriated for any of

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Speaker 3: those purposes.

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Speaker 1: So this is about as bad as it gets.

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Speaker 3: And that's something that I appointing people to the David

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Speaker 3: wu podcast because he is someone who supported the administration

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Speaker 3: and supports many of the goals of the administration. He says,

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Speaker 3: you cannot point to a single a single triumph economically

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Speaker 3: from the Trump administration, from its stated agenda, from doze

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Speaker 3: huts to the trade war and his disapproval. These are

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Speaker 3: serious people, you know, serious people actually want to see

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Speaker 3: many of the things that Trump allegedly says that he

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Speaker 3: wants to do and says that it's not happening.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I mean, Steve Bannon, you and I were both sharing

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Speaker 2: in our DMS the Steve Bannon clip where he's like, hey, Doge,

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Speaker 2: what happened you know, he's saying, we need an audit

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Speaker 2: of DOGE, which is hilarious.

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Speaker 4: It's like, thinkgel Dave weigeltweeted.

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Speaker 2: You need a Department of Government efficiency monitoring the Department

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Speaker 2: of Government and efficiency. But you know, he's basically acknowledging

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Speaker 2: the thing that you claimed you were doing you completely

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Speaker 2: failed at. And where's any sort of pentagon cuts, where's

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Speaker 2: any sort of actual fraud? Like, okay, you canceled. This

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Speaker 2: is now my word's not his. Okay, you canceled some

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Speaker 2: programs that like you didn't like because of their ideological

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Speaker 2: valance or at least your sense of their ideological balance.

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Speaker 2: But by any metric, even the metrics they set out,

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Speaker 2: even with their phony inflated numbers, total and complete.

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Speaker 4: Failure and but real destruction.

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Speaker 2: And I mean it's kind of similar here with tariffs,

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Speaker 2: total and complete failure, but real catastrophic destruction. And when

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Speaker 2: you're talking about supply chains, you're talking about what are

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Speaker 2: the prices they're going to be, what's going to even

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Speaker 2: be available to consumers, what's going to be on the shelves,

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Speaker 2: and you're talking about jobs. I mean, just if you

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Speaker 2: taking the consumer side of it out of it, all together.

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Speaker 2: You know, the trucking industry is massive. Trucking, that's one

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Speaker 2: of the top jobs for non college educated men.

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Speaker 4: That's going to take a huge hit. All of the

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Speaker 4: people that.

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Speaker 2: Work at the ports and make sure that your goods

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Speaker 2: are unloaded and brought to the stores. I mean, all

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Speaker 2: of that is going to take a huge hit. Not

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Speaker 2: to mention we covered yesterday, we already have If one

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Speaker 2: of the supposed goals is to increase US manufacturing, you

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Speaker 2: already have so many US manufacturers, including Stilantis, including two

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Speaker 2: hundred year old paper mill that's having to shut its doors.

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Speaker 2: They're already saying, hey, we have to do lay like

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Speaker 2: forget about investing more, we actually need to cut back now.

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Speaker 2: Some of these companies use any excuse to lay off people.

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Speaker 2: And I'm sure that's some of what is going on

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Speaker 2: right now, but it's also a real estimate of the

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Speaker 2: fact that the business climate has turned sour because of

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Speaker 2: an intentional plan by the Trump administration. And just one

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Speaker 2: more note on China, can put a five up on

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Speaker 2: the screen here.

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Speaker 4: This is another indication that.

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Speaker 2: You know, if the US was like okay, well, some

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Speaker 2: of these countries are going to have to pick between

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Speaker 2: US and China. The writing is increasingly on the wall

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Speaker 2: what direction they're leaning. The European parliaments a final stages

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Speaker 2: of talks with China to remove sanctions on lawmakers. So

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Speaker 2: just an indication of like thawing of relations there that

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Speaker 2: could open the door to more direct negotiations between Europe

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Speaker 2: and China and you know, improve trade relationships there as well.

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Speaker 2: But I do think China's role here is really important.

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Speaker 2: You know, they sort of set the tone of hey,

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Speaker 2: we're not falling in line here, we're not capitulating to

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Speaker 2: this bully. We are going to hold the line. We're

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Speaker 2: going to you know, we're going to retaliate. And they said, Okay,

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Speaker 2: we're retaliated to a certain point.

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Speaker 4: That's it.

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Speaker 2: That's all we're going to do, and we're going to

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Speaker 2: wait and see what the US does. I think if

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Speaker 2: they had capitulated and offered concessions pretty quickly, I think

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Speaker 2: you would have seen a lot of countries around the

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Speaker 2: world likely to follow suit and also feel like, okay, well,

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Speaker 2: if China can't stand up to them, like, what chance

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Speaker 2: do we have? And so I do think that China's

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Speaker 2: posture is part of the reason why as of today,

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Speaker 2: you know, eight twelve in the morning, April twenty fourth,

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Speaker 2: we have zero deals that have been you know, that

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Speaker 2: have been finalized, that are are crafted, that are anywhere

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Speaker 2: near some sort of final state.

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Speaker 4: We have zero.

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Speaker 2: They're supposed to do what ninety deals in ninety days

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Speaker 2: were at zero. So on every level, whether it's you know,

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Speaker 2: the manufacturing job loss, whether it's the you know, the

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Speaker 2: treasury yields going up instead of down that was another

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Speaker 2: supposed goal here, or whether it's the idea of crafting

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Speaker 2: all of these deals around the world. On every single level,

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Speaker 2: even by their own stated metrics, this thing has.

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Speaker 3: Failed, right, And you know, I actually think their Japan

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Speaker 3: was also a major leading indicator because this is a

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Speaker 3: critical US ally and for them, they come to America

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Speaker 3: and they're like, Okay, what do you guys want And

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Speaker 3: they're like, well, what are you offering?

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Speaker 1: They're like, but what do you want?

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Speaker 3: And for them to go home and then for their

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Speaker 3: prime minister. So I've come to understand a little bit

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Speaker 3: more about this. The Japanese prime minister was a little

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Speaker 3: bit on shaky ground. What he is now doing is

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Speaker 3: actually standing up to Trump and the United States in

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Speaker 3: parliament to shore up his political standing in the party

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Speaker 3: and to basically have a nationalist rally around the flag

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Speaker 3: where people are not going to capitulate to what they

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Speaker 3: see as capricious US.

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Speaker 1: Behavior and demands.

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Speaker 3: At the very same time, are willing in this case

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Speaker 3: to deal with what they see as this serious Chinese.

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Speaker 3: Keep in mind, these countries hate each other, but for

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Speaker 3: them it's about money, it's about seriousness, and for them,

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Speaker 3: they don't see a current path forward with the administration

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Speaker 3: which is realistic.

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Speaker 1: I also just got this.

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Speaker 3: This is this new statement from the Chinese Foreign Ministry,

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Speaker 3: literally just this morning. They say Beijing is now telling

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Speaker 3: the United States you must completely cancel all unilateral tariff

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Speaker 3: measures if it wants trade talks. The strongest comments yet

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Speaker 3: from the Foreign ministry. Beijing says there are no economic

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Speaker 3: and trade negotiations between China and the United States. That's

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Speaker 3: confirming what I was saying earlier. Despite some recent signs

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Speaker 3: of softening on the issue. They say this is not

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Speaker 3: sustainable and there must They say that unilateral tariff measures

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Speaker 3: were initiated by the United States. If the US truly

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Speaker 3: wants to solve the problem, it must completely cancel all

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Speaker 3: measures against China and find a way to resolve differences

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Speaker 3: through equal dialogue. So you can see exactly there they're saying, no,

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Speaker 3: we don't care anything that you say. Nothing is on

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Speaker 3: the table, no communications, no high level talks.

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Speaker 1: Cancel them or so be it.

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Speaker 3: And you know the reason why I think they're on

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Speaker 3: stronger ground is they've been preparing this is going to

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Speaker 3: be very relating to our Ukraine conversation. They have prepared

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Speaker 3: for this for twenty years and they have especially prepared

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Speaker 3: for this in the last five And then what they

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Speaker 3: saw after the COVID crisis is look, they can read

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Speaker 3: a poll. They could see how Americans were really upset

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Speaker 3: about the you know, the Wuhan lab and about the virus.

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Speaker 3: They were preparing for any sort of decoupling. And so they,

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Speaker 3: you know, with the one Belt, one Road initiative and

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Speaker 3: the twenty twenty five plan from China over the last decade,

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Speaker 3: have invested massive amounts of money into the domestics supply chain.

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Speaker 3: Then they actually got to battle test what it looks

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Speaker 3: like when the Western financial system decouples from another country

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Speaker 3: which previously had lots of ties, called Russia. And they

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Speaker 3: got to sit there and observe the entire global financial system,

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Speaker 3: how it interacts.

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Speaker 1: And what it does.

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Speaker 3: And in that period, they've now had years to build alternatives.

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Speaker 3: They've had the Brick Conference, they've shored up the yond,

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Speaker 3: They've made sure that they can go all around the

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Speaker 3: world for bilateral negotiations and make sure that at least

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Speaker 3: in their hemisphere that they can stand strong. They have

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Speaker 3: enough capital reserves and domestic supply chain to be able

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Speaker 3: to pump into the economy. Their population is frothing at

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Speaker 3: the mouth right now against the United States. The Chinese

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Speaker 3: censors are basically allowing anything critical of the US to

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Speaker 3: go massively viral inside of the country. And again all

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Speaker 3: of this is directed specifically at us. They are very prepared,

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Speaker 3: much stronger than we are right now, for any sort

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Speaker 3: of preparation of a long term trade war. And you

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Speaker 3: don't just think about here the visage of empty shelves

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Speaker 3: in the United States of America and what that mean.

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Speaker 3: You know, for people remember the gas crisis. That's truly

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Speaker 3: what destroyed Jimmy Carter. Chaos, That's what it all feels like.

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Speaker 4: Right, Yeah, no, that's right.

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Speaker 2: And I mean also just like on a human level,

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Speaker 2: if you're China, and you're looking at our leadership and

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Speaker 2: the way they're making decisions, you know, with this preposterous

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Speaker 2: chart that doesn't make any sense and throwing tariffs on

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00:20:56,720 --> 00:21:00,040
Speaker 2: penguins and you know Lesotho, and I mean it's just

439
00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:04,160
Speaker 2: idiocy from the start. Then you're reading the reporting about

440
00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:07,560
Speaker 2: how this is no four D chess. Trump was arm

441
00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:11,720
Speaker 2: twisted by basically like a plot between Bessett and Lutnik,

442
00:21:11,760 --> 00:21:13,840
Speaker 2: while Peter Navarro was on the other side of the

443
00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:17,159
Speaker 2: building to change his mind on this, Like you just

444
00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:19,840
Speaker 2: have to look at what's going on and say, these

445
00:21:19,880 --> 00:21:23,120
Speaker 2: people are not serious, Like they're not serious. They don't

446
00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:25,600
Speaker 2: have a plan, they don't have a strategy. It is

447
00:21:25,800 --> 00:21:28,480
Speaker 2: just as dumb as it looks to be on the surface.

448
00:21:28,840 --> 00:21:31,680
Speaker 2: So yeah, I feel pretty good in my you know,

449
00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:35,639
Speaker 2: head to head matchup against this like clown car of

450
00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:39,119
Speaker 2: buffoons and sycophants. So I think there's you know, some

451
00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:42,960
Speaker 2: of that as well, and I think we are It

452
00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:46,600
Speaker 2: is very unclear how this ultimately gets resolved with China

453
00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:49,600
Speaker 2: because when they say, look, you take the tariffs off

454
00:21:49,600 --> 00:21:51,760
Speaker 2: and we can talk, I think they mean it. I mean,

455
00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:54,720
Speaker 2: they have been very sort of steadfast in their positioning

456
00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:58,160
Speaker 2: and your right to point to Russia as really a

457
00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:01,800
Speaker 2: you know, test run for what this could look like

458
00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:04,600
Speaker 2: and how it will ultimately go. And it's not that

459
00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:07,840
Speaker 2: Russia didn't suffer any consequences from the all out financial

460
00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:10,119
Speaker 2: war that we wage on them. And it's not like

461
00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:13,400
Speaker 2: our relationship with Russia is you know, the same, were

462
00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:16,680
Speaker 2: as extensive as our relationship with China. But they got

463
00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:19,280
Speaker 2: to have a kind of a dry run and have

464
00:22:19,320 --> 00:22:23,399
Speaker 2: to feel fairly solid in their position. And it is ironic, Sager,

465
00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:25,840
Speaker 2: to your point, this is a separate apart from China.

466
00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:29,560
Speaker 2: But the Canadians have their elections next week, and Trump

467
00:22:29,600 --> 00:22:33,560
Speaker 2: has really revived liberalism around the world.

468
00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:34,320
Speaker 1: That's true.

469
00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:37,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, He's actually shored up a lot of the forces

470
00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:40,480
Speaker 3: that he would hate, so like liberal internationalism is actually

471
00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:44,240
Speaker 3: arguably stronger than ever, which is compan well, you know,

472
00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:47,240
Speaker 3: every action has an equal and opposite reaction. All right,

473
00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:49,439
Speaker 3: we've got Jeff Stein standing by to break down some

474
00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:53,520
Speaker 3: more of this, specifically Powell and Trump's backing down on

475
00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:54,160
Speaker 3: firing him.

476
00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:54,880
Speaker 1: Let's get to it.

477
00:22:57,600 --> 00:22:59,720
Speaker 3: Joining us now is Jeff Stein of the Washington Post,

478
00:22:59,760 --> 00:23:01,639
Speaker 3: great friend of the show, to talk about his latest

479
00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:04,120
Speaker 3: reporting and some of the developments on Trump's tariffs. Good

480
00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:05,399
Speaker 3: to see you, Jeff, Thanks for joining us.

481
00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:07,880
Speaker 6: Hey, my bud, You're always happy to be on.

482
00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:11,440
Speaker 3: All right, So Secretary Scott Bessen, seemingly the quote voice

483
00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:13,920
Speaker 3: of reason, at least according to Wall Street, in the room,

484
00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:17,040
Speaker 3: giving some new comments about how he wants to be

485
00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:20,000
Speaker 3: clear that America First does not mean America alone. A

486
00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:22,200
Speaker 3: little bit different than some of the things he said previously.

487
00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:23,760
Speaker 3: Let's take a listen, and we're going to get your

488
00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:25,080
Speaker 3: reaction this morning.

489
00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:29,119
Speaker 7: I will explain how they can provide that leadership to

490
00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:35,280
Speaker 7: build safer, stronger, and more prosperous economies all around the world.

491
00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:39,120
Speaker 7: I wish to invite my international counterparts to join us

492
00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:43,360
Speaker 7: in working toward these goals. On this point, I wish

493
00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:48,800
Speaker 7: to be clear, America First does not mean America alone.

494
00:23:49,840 --> 00:23:53,920
Speaker 7: To the contrary, it is a call for deeper collaboration

495
00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:59,520
Speaker 7: and mutual respect among trade partners. Far from stepping back.

496
00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:05,600
Speaker 8: America First seeks to expand US leadership and international institutions

497
00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:10,640
Speaker 8: like the IMF and the World Banks by embracing a

498
00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:16,359
Speaker 8: stronger leadership role. America First seeks to restore fairness to

499
00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:18,520
Speaker 8: the international economics system.

500
00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:22,120
Speaker 1: So, Jeff, what do you make of those comments in the.

501
00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:28,200
Speaker 3: Wake of you know, reciprocal, reciprocal, unilateral tariffs put upon

502
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:31,040
Speaker 3: the entire world taken off, the posture through which this

503
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:34,360
Speaker 3: has all happened in some pretty acrimonious negotiations.

504
00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:36,080
Speaker 1: You know, how does that fit with a lot of

505
00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:37,879
Speaker 1: the reporting that you have from behind the scenes.

506
00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:42,359
Speaker 9: I thought it was funny that Charaty used that phrase

507
00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:47,800
Speaker 9: because Pratish Secretary Jenet Yellen definitely no mega person, and

508
00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:51,480
Speaker 9: twenty twenty one said quote America first must not mean

509
00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:54,000
Speaker 9: America alone, which is almost exactly what.

510
00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:55,200
Speaker 6: The current puritary said.

511
00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:57,760
Speaker 9: I don't know if they realized that they had, you know,

512
00:24:58,040 --> 00:25:00,960
Speaker 9: that's something almost exactly what their produce is or headsetter apposed.

513
00:25:01,000 --> 00:25:05,399
Speaker 9: Just a coincidence, I think to your point, there have

514
00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:09,280
Speaker 9: been a number of very high profile fights in the

515
00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:13,359
Speaker 9: last sort of two or three weeks over the scope

516
00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:18,120
Speaker 9: of the tariff policy. And whereas previously Peter Navarro, who

517
00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:21,040
Speaker 9: is the you know, uber hawk who wants more and

518
00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:24,480
Speaker 9: more and more confrontation, more and more trade barriers, more

519
00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:30,400
Speaker 9: conflict with our international economic allies, has was initially sort

520
00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:34,360
Speaker 9: of carrying the day in the initial round of tariff debates,

521
00:25:35,040 --> 00:25:37,520
Speaker 9: Vessant is actually sort of on the ascendants, and you

522
00:25:37,560 --> 00:25:41,240
Speaker 9: can really see that in sort of the tone and

523
00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:44,679
Speaker 9: the message he's conveying there, which is so contrary to

524
00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:48,119
Speaker 9: the actions that the White House was taking just a

525
00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:51,760
Speaker 9: few weeks ago. I mean, we imposed unilateral tariffs on

526
00:25:51,920 --> 00:25:55,159
Speaker 9: every country, essentially dozens and dozens of countries over seventy

527
00:25:55,200 --> 00:25:59,399
Speaker 9: I think was the final number. And essence here is

528
00:25:59,440 --> 00:26:03,200
Speaker 9: trying to unicate that, you know, that is not necessarily

529
00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:07,760
Speaker 9: the way of the future, that what Navarro's success it

530
00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:11,280
Speaker 9: was in the early days of the trade war may

531
00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:14,440
Speaker 9: not last forever. Of course, the problems we can discuss

532
00:26:14,560 --> 00:26:19,040
Speaker 9: is that Navarro, that's uber hawk, you know, right next

533
00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:22,879
Speaker 9: to Trump at all times, is still, you know, just

534
00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:27,000
Speaker 9: just a breath away from power in the sense that

535
00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:29,840
Speaker 9: you know, anytime Trump wants him or is feeling an

536
00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:33,320
Speaker 9: impulse to hit another country with high tariffs, he can

537
00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:35,680
Speaker 9: just call Peter or just invite him into the Oval.

538
00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:40,119
Speaker 9: And so there's there's a real dissonance here between the

539
00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:43,680
Speaker 9: messages from Navarro and the messages from Vesson. Vestn't as

540
00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:46,119
Speaker 9: all the sort of palace intrigue reporting shows, and as

541
00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:47,520
Speaker 9: our reporting shows as.

542
00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:51,640
Speaker 6: Well, has had the upper hand in a range.

543
00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:54,879
Speaker 9: Of sort of policy debates in the last couple of weeks,

544
00:26:54,960 --> 00:26:57,560
Speaker 9: and so I think that's being reflected in this public

545
00:26:57,600 --> 00:27:00,879
Speaker 9: communication as well, where he's feeling inboldened to say things

546
00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:02,280
Speaker 9: like the clip you played, got it?

547
00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:04,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's hilarious after it. Not only the

548
00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:06,800
Speaker 2: way they've approached the trade war. I mean a few

549
00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:09,600
Speaker 2: weeks ago, Trump said something like we shouldn't even have

550
00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:13,240
Speaker 2: supply lines right, like literally everything we're gonna have like

551
00:27:13,280 --> 00:27:18,720
Speaker 2: this North Korea style, fully autarcic economy. And you have

552
00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:23,520
Speaker 2: not only that, you've got threatening war against Denmark and

553
00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:27,240
Speaker 2: Canada and Mexico and Iran and all these countries around

554
00:27:27,280 --> 00:27:30,200
Speaker 2: the world. Jade Vance going to Europe and lecturing them

555
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:33,280
Speaker 2: about free speech, and then you know, coming here and

556
00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:36,200
Speaker 2: cracking down on college students who dare to say anything

557
00:27:36,359 --> 00:27:39,240
Speaker 2: that they don't like about Israel. So you've had this

558
00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:43,760
Speaker 2: incredibly adversarial approach around the world, and that rhetoric is

559
00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:46,439
Speaker 2: still coming from Trump in a lot of ways. I

560
00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:49,440
Speaker 2: mean just yesterday evening he did this you know, Oval

561
00:27:49,480 --> 00:27:53,520
Speaker 2: office press a veil and was still calling Trudeau the

562
00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:55,800
Speaker 2: Governor of Canada, we can go ahead and take a

563
00:27:55,800 --> 00:27:56,960
Speaker 2: listen to a little bit of that.

564
00:27:57,400 --> 00:28:03,560
Speaker 10: Trudeau like, well, Governor Trudeau affectionately, I asked him, why

565
00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:07,600
Speaker 10: are we spending two hundred billion dollars to support Canada?

566
00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:10,080
Speaker 10: It's a subsidized Candida, And he was unable to answer

567
00:28:10,119 --> 00:28:10,560
Speaker 10: the question.

568
00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:14,840
Speaker 6: I mean, why are we doing that? And I have

569
00:28:14,920 --> 00:28:15,560
Speaker 6: to be honest.

570
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:20,280
Speaker 10: As a state, it works great as a nation, considering

571
00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:23,040
Speaker 10: the fact that most of the nation, you know, ninety

572
00:28:23,080 --> 00:28:25,120
Speaker 10: five percent of Canada. What they do is they buy

573
00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:28,240
Speaker 10: from us and they sell to us. They sell to

574
00:28:28,359 --> 00:28:31,440
Speaker 10: us if we didn't buy their oil, if we didn't

575
00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:34,400
Speaker 10: buy the and we don't need their oil, more oil

576
00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:36,720
Speaker 10: than anyone. But we don't need their oil, we don't

577
00:28:36,720 --> 00:28:38,360
Speaker 10: need their level, we don't need their cars, we don't

578
00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:41,200
Speaker 10: need anything. So I said, why are we doing this?

579
00:28:41,280 --> 00:28:41,760
Speaker 5: Why are we.

580
00:28:41,720 --> 00:28:44,200
Speaker 10: Spending two hundred billion dollars? It doesn't make sense.

581
00:28:44,600 --> 00:28:46,760
Speaker 2: So you still have Trump saying things like that. You also,

582
00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:49,000
Speaker 2: I just saw Japan says, hey, we're not going to

583
00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:51,400
Speaker 2: be part of any trade block that seeks to isolate

584
00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:54,920
Speaker 2: China because our trade with China is too important. So

585
00:28:55,080 --> 00:28:57,320
Speaker 2: in some ways, even if besant is, you know, in

586
00:28:57,360 --> 00:29:00,520
Speaker 2: the driver's seat right now. I feel like the damage

587
00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:03,800
Speaker 2: is already done with the way that this administration has

588
00:29:03,840 --> 00:29:07,400
Speaker 2: conducted itself, you know, globally, and also with the type

589
00:29:07,440 --> 00:29:10,959
Speaker 2: of rhetoric that Trump still embraces and still clearly is

590
00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:12,640
Speaker 2: like where his heart actually is at.

591
00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:19,160
Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean, I think the fundamental problem for them

592
00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:22,320
Speaker 9: here in some ways that destn't and to some degree,

593
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:26,840
Speaker 9: Trump have clearly been totally spoofed by what happened, not

594
00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:29,640
Speaker 9: really even primarily in the back market, about what happened

595
00:29:29,640 --> 00:29:34,560
Speaker 9: in the bond market, which threatened to raise borrowing costs

596
00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:38,240
Speaker 9: for tens of millions of Americans, a sudden economic shock

597
00:29:38,680 --> 00:29:42,280
Speaker 9: which would be sort of visible and devastating and immediate,

598
00:29:43,080 --> 00:29:48,320
Speaker 9: and for vest In clearly the goal of the last

599
00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:52,160
Speaker 9: few weeks after the Liberation Day Tariffs had to turn

600
00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:56,080
Speaker 9: down the temperature to kind of get people to sort

601
00:29:56,080 --> 00:29:59,040
Speaker 9: of like step back from the brink, to relax a

602
00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:01,320
Speaker 9: little bit, so we can get had a breathing room

603
00:30:01,360 --> 00:30:05,120
Speaker 9: for the economy, because he will be blamed if you know,

604
00:30:05,200 --> 00:30:09,160
Speaker 9: this is the most catastrophic self inflicted economic you know,

605
00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:13,920
Speaker 9: leadership in American history, which if the US just drove

606
00:30:13,960 --> 00:30:16,800
Speaker 9: off the cliff into a recession. Many people wouldn't, you know,

607
00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:22,200
Speaker 9: legitimately say they had done. But remember obviously that Trump's

608
00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:26,800
Speaker 9: entire sort of worldview is that you need to maintain

609
00:30:27,040 --> 00:30:30,560
Speaker 9: maximal leverage over other people at all times, and that's

610
00:30:30,600 --> 00:30:32,680
Speaker 9: how you get what you want. You sort of control them,

611
00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:36,040
Speaker 9: you insult them, you make them think that you're kind

612
00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:38,040
Speaker 9: of crazy, and who knows what you're going to do next.

613
00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:41,160
Speaker 9: So it's this sprinksmanship that is, you know, core to

614
00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:44,920
Speaker 9: what Donald Trump has been saying about human nature, really

615
00:30:44,960 --> 00:30:50,320
Speaker 9: like about the fundamental relations between people for decades, and

616
00:30:50,560 --> 00:30:53,480
Speaker 9: that sense goal of turning down the temperature is just

617
00:30:53,560 --> 00:31:00,800
Speaker 9: fundamentally incompatible with Trumpt's strategy of maintaining maximal brinksmanship through

618
00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:06,080
Speaker 9: this style that you were alluding to, and it produces this,

619
00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:10,040
Speaker 9: you know, as I said, in extreme dissonance between the

620
00:31:10,080 --> 00:31:12,280
Speaker 9: president and his top economic advisor.

621
00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:16,440
Speaker 6: You know, I met yesterday with the.

622
00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:19,520
Speaker 9: Head of of you know, the economic team for a

623
00:31:19,560 --> 00:31:22,160
Speaker 9: foreign country. And it's a kind of meaning like as

624
00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:24,960
Speaker 9: a reporter, you're like excited to like hear what they're hearing,

625
00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:29,280
Speaker 9: Like what message are they getting from Treasury or Commerce

626
00:31:29,360 --> 00:31:31,120
Speaker 9: or the White House, and then you know, I can

627
00:31:31,200 --> 00:31:34,320
Speaker 9: use that to like report on what's happening. And then

628
00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:37,880
Speaker 9: I get to the meeting, and instead of them telling

629
00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:40,360
Speaker 9: like me like what they're hearing, all they want to

630
00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:43,560
Speaker 9: do is ask me what I'm hearing. And they're asking me,

631
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:47,000
Speaker 9: like when can we get a deal? And I'm like, no, no,

632
00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:49,560
Speaker 9: I asked you that question, like you're supposed to tell me.

633
00:31:50,360 --> 00:31:55,160
Speaker 9: And it reflects like the fact that nobody knows, like

634
00:31:56,320 --> 00:32:00,680
Speaker 9: even I get the sense that the trunk people like

635
00:32:00,880 --> 00:32:03,560
Speaker 9: Bunk themselves know exactly what the president wants.

636
00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:05,920
Speaker 6: And in the absence of that knowledge.

637
00:32:05,640 --> 00:32:10,000
Speaker 9: It's really really hard to like prevent an economic collapse

638
00:32:10,120 --> 00:32:13,000
Speaker 9: because I mean, I don't want to be too dramatic here,

639
00:32:13,040 --> 00:32:16,640
Speaker 9: but like that there are real risks that the uncertainty

640
00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:20,560
Speaker 9: that they're causing will push us into a recession where

641
00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:22,239
Speaker 9: a lot of people get hurt. And even if that

642
00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:25,920
Speaker 9: doesn't happen, it seems quite good they're raising the risks, you.

643
00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:26,280
Speaker 1: Know, Jeff.

644
00:32:26,280 --> 00:32:28,560
Speaker 3: At the same time, one of the like more maximal

645
00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:30,719
Speaker 3: things that Trump had signaled was that he was going

646
00:32:30,760 --> 00:32:34,680
Speaker 3: to fire Jerome Powell. You though, let's put aaight please

647
00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:37,520
Speaker 3: up on the screen. You have some reporting from behind

648
00:32:37,560 --> 00:32:40,360
Speaker 3: the scenes about how some of his top aides told

649
00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:42,320
Speaker 3: him to tone down the attacks on Valley. Seems to

650
00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:44,680
Speaker 3: have listened. He said, Okay, I'm not going to fire him.

651
00:32:44,720 --> 00:32:47,280
Speaker 3: I never had any plans to do so. So what's

652
00:32:47,320 --> 00:32:49,360
Speaker 3: going on behind that? Because I feel like his decision

653
00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:52,200
Speaker 3: making around the FED is important for us trying and

654
00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:54,920
Speaker 3: at least understand his mindset with respect to tariffs or

655
00:32:54,920 --> 00:32:56,360
Speaker 3: any of these other big things that he says.

656
00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:01,960
Speaker 9: Yeah, it's a tricky story because is you know, for months,

657
00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:05,840
Speaker 9: I've been hearing you know that people who were talking

658
00:33:05,840 --> 00:33:07,400
Speaker 9: to Trump, were talking to people who are close to

659
00:33:07,440 --> 00:33:11,040
Speaker 9: Trump that he's been sort of saying, uh, like, how

660
00:33:11,080 --> 00:33:11,959
Speaker 9: we should get rid of him.

661
00:33:11,960 --> 00:33:13,240
Speaker 6: I don't really like what he's doing.

662
00:33:13,560 --> 00:33:17,600
Speaker 9: And it's really hard to gauge the seriousness of that because,

663
00:33:18,720 --> 00:33:21,560
Speaker 9: you know, I'm just like kind of grousing about how

664
00:33:21,560 --> 00:33:22,960
Speaker 9: he doesn't like what Powell's up to.

665
00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:24,880
Speaker 6: It's really different.

666
00:33:24,520 --> 00:33:28,000
Speaker 9: Than like drawing up the plan and like hitting the

667
00:33:28,000 --> 00:33:31,640
Speaker 9: big red button. What is clear is that over the

668
00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:35,120
Speaker 9: last you know, I guess. On Monday, the Wall Street

669
00:33:35,160 --> 00:33:38,280
Speaker 9: Journal reported on the rumors that we've been hearing as

670
00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:40,080
Speaker 9: well for a long time, which is that Trump was

671
00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:42,800
Speaker 9: talking about this, and in response to that Wall Street

672
00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:44,880
Speaker 9: Ternel story, the markets tank.

673
00:33:45,240 --> 00:33:47,760
Speaker 6: And so after that sort of.

674
00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:51,520
Speaker 9: As that process was unfolding, the people who have been

675
00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:55,040
Speaker 9: most concerned about the markets within the administration, maybe not

676
00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:57,280
Speaker 9: Minister of the most concerned, but among the most concerns

677
00:33:57,720 --> 00:34:00,720
Speaker 9: Better Secretary Vestment and Common Secretary Cowver Nick went to

678
00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:04,480
Speaker 9: the President and said, you know, a you know, we

679
00:34:04,560 --> 00:34:08,240
Speaker 9: don't think that this might even be legal. So Trump

680
00:34:08,239 --> 00:34:10,319
Speaker 9: could fire Powell, but then you could still remain there,

681
00:34:10,360 --> 00:34:12,400
Speaker 9: so you would kind of get the worst of both worlds,

682
00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:15,839
Speaker 9: and that the market, you know, would be really destabilized.

683
00:34:15,880 --> 00:34:17,880
Speaker 9: I think the way someone put it to me was

684
00:34:17,920 --> 00:34:21,040
Speaker 9: basically that you know, if they fire, if you fire Powell,

685
00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:26,720
Speaker 9: mister president, like we cannot maintain all these fights simultaneously.

686
00:34:26,760 --> 00:34:29,160
Speaker 9: Like let's pick our battles a little bit. How is

687
00:34:29,160 --> 00:34:32,520
Speaker 9: going to be gone anyway, I think in late twenty twenty.

688
00:34:32,160 --> 00:34:34,400
Speaker 6: Six, So just hold off on that for now.

689
00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:38,040
Speaker 9: Doesn't mean that Trump wasn't sort of grousing about the potential,

690
00:34:38,120 --> 00:34:41,319
Speaker 9: but that suggests, you know, as you're suggesting Sacker, that

691
00:34:41,360 --> 00:34:46,279
Speaker 9: there's there's a uh recognition here that they can't be

692
00:34:46,400 --> 00:34:51,440
Speaker 9: fighting all battles simultaneously at all times. I guess that

693
00:34:51,480 --> 00:34:54,279
Speaker 9: was redundant, but but there's a limit to how much

694
00:34:54,320 --> 00:34:58,360
Speaker 9: they can fight. And I feel like that, you know,

695
00:34:58,800 --> 00:35:03,120
Speaker 9: is a comforting thing. But how much have they already done?

696
00:35:03,239 --> 00:35:04,840
Speaker 9: And how much is this genie out of the bottle?

697
00:35:04,840 --> 00:35:06,640
Speaker 9: I don't know if you guys have been seeing some

698
00:35:06,680 --> 00:35:10,760
Speaker 9: of the shipping data, you know, given bookings found sixty

699
00:35:10,760 --> 00:35:14,000
Speaker 9: percent between the quest of China. Consumer confidence now at

700
00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:17,680
Speaker 9: its second lowest level in the last nineteen fifty two.

701
00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:20,880
Speaker 9: So we're in this weird place right now where the

702
00:35:21,160 --> 00:35:25,440
Speaker 9: hard economic data jobs and inflation and GDP are still

703
00:35:25,440 --> 00:35:26,520
Speaker 9: looking totally.

704
00:35:26,239 --> 00:35:27,719
Speaker 6: Fine for the most part.

705
00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:31,439
Speaker 9: But it's this like soft data that measures that's sort

706
00:35:31,440 --> 00:35:35,040
Speaker 9: of like more real and more in real time. But

707
00:35:35,160 --> 00:35:37,680
Speaker 9: it's not as as macro and sweeping that looked that

708
00:35:37,800 --> 00:35:38,680
Speaker 9: is flashing red.

709
00:35:38,719 --> 00:35:40,839
Speaker 6: And I think the White House is very aware of that.

710
00:35:41,520 --> 00:35:44,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, what is your assessment of that, Jeff,

711
00:35:44,360 --> 00:35:46,960
Speaker 2: How much even if this is something Soccer and I

712
00:35:46,960 --> 00:35:49,359
Speaker 2: were just talking about, even if they back away from

713
00:35:49,360 --> 00:35:52,480
Speaker 2: everything now, how much damage has already been done? I've

714
00:35:52,520 --> 00:35:55,239
Speaker 2: seen the comparison Joe Wisentheal and others making the comparison

715
00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:58,880
Speaker 2: to basically like the COVID disruptions that led to inflation,

716
00:35:59,080 --> 00:36:02,960
Speaker 2: that led to shortes that took so long to untangle.

717
00:36:03,000 --> 00:36:05,319
Speaker 2: It's not like you can just snap your fingers and

718
00:36:05,400 --> 00:36:07,000
Speaker 2: unsnarl all of these things.

719
00:36:07,960 --> 00:36:10,440
Speaker 9: Yeah, I've been kind of like referred to it as

720
00:36:10,480 --> 00:36:13,279
Speaker 9: the yly e coyote economy, and the sense that like

721
00:36:13,800 --> 00:36:18,040
Speaker 9: we run off a cliff and we are we have

722
00:36:18,120 --> 00:36:20,319
Speaker 9: not looked down yet, Like we just don't know what

723
00:36:21,120 --> 00:36:25,359
Speaker 9: is beneath us. Because as I was sort of trying

724
00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:29,840
Speaker 9: to say, like the most important economic data is pretty delayed,

725
00:36:29,880 --> 00:36:31,160
Speaker 9: which is frustrating for.

726
00:36:31,680 --> 00:36:33,800
Speaker 6: Reporters to get a good sense of what's happening.

727
00:36:35,040 --> 00:36:38,680
Speaker 9: I think, you know, there are reasons to think, you know,

728
00:36:38,760 --> 00:36:41,000
Speaker 9: that it won't be you know, nearly as bad as

729
00:36:41,160 --> 00:36:45,160
Speaker 9: two and eight or twenty twenty. Trade is hugely important

730
00:36:45,160 --> 00:36:48,960
Speaker 9: to the US economy, but it's you know, fifteen percent

731
00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:52,080
Speaker 9: of the economy is important to double it. Another fifteen

732
00:36:52,120 --> 00:36:56,840
Speaker 9: percent is exports. That's thirty twenty five percent. You know,

733
00:36:56,920 --> 00:37:00,479
Speaker 9: most of the tariffs on other countries have been pulled back,

734
00:37:00,719 --> 00:37:03,959
Speaker 9: but it's really the China question that is the most

735
00:37:03,960 --> 00:37:08,400
Speaker 9: significant right now. Then again, they've exempted electronics, so maybe

736
00:37:08,400 --> 00:37:10,200
Speaker 9: that will sort of bail them out a little bit.

737
00:37:10,640 --> 00:37:15,080
Speaker 9: We have a story at scoop this morning about rare

738
00:37:15,160 --> 00:37:17,680
Speaker 9: earth metals which don't ask me to name them because

739
00:37:17,880 --> 00:37:21,000
Speaker 9: I couldn't, but they're sort of crucial component parts for

740
00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:25,719
Speaker 9: semis and the defense industry and a huge range of

741
00:37:25,760 --> 00:37:26,759
Speaker 9: healthcare functions.

742
00:37:27,160 --> 00:37:28,279
Speaker 6: Companies are telling.

743
00:37:28,080 --> 00:37:31,080
Speaker 9: Us that they're on sort of their last reserve the

744
00:37:31,080 --> 00:37:33,600
Speaker 9: next month or so, and China has cut those off.

745
00:37:33,640 --> 00:37:36,680
Speaker 9: That China has essentially a choke hold on this on

746
00:37:36,800 --> 00:37:40,520
Speaker 9: these rare earths, or rather the processing of these rare earths,

747
00:37:40,560 --> 00:37:43,560
Speaker 9: but just as well might as well be the production event,

748
00:37:44,080 --> 00:37:48,760
Speaker 9: and that show point by China. It's a really really

749
00:37:49,600 --> 00:37:52,400
Speaker 9: serious potential blow to the US economy, which the Chinese

750
00:37:52,440 --> 00:37:55,520
Speaker 9: know and are are full well exploiting. So I think,

751
00:37:55,719 --> 00:37:58,040
Speaker 9: you know, given some of the soccer tone from Trump

752
00:37:58,080 --> 00:38:01,040
Speaker 9: in the last few days, it it is quite likely

753
00:38:01,120 --> 00:38:03,239
Speaker 9: that the White House is looking at economic data that

754
00:38:03,360 --> 00:38:04,720
Speaker 9: is really not good.

755
00:38:06,120 --> 00:38:08,160
Speaker 6: And you know, it's.

756
00:38:07,960 --> 00:38:12,080
Speaker 9: A cliche, but like economics is extremely psychological. If I

757
00:38:12,239 --> 00:38:14,920
Speaker 9: think that you're not making a purchase, then I'm going

758
00:38:14,960 --> 00:38:16,399
Speaker 9: to wait for the price to go down, which means

759
00:38:16,440 --> 00:38:18,279
Speaker 9: I'm not buying, which means the guy across the street

760
00:38:18,320 --> 00:38:20,239
Speaker 9: will also not buy because he'll wait for the price

761
00:38:20,280 --> 00:38:22,319
Speaker 9: to come down, and that's pretty soon.

762
00:38:22,320 --> 00:38:25,080
Speaker 6: How you have a really serious downturn.

763
00:38:25,400 --> 00:38:27,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, man, grim stuff.

764
00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:30,959
Speaker 3: But we always appreciate your reporting, Jeff, thank you, Hey,

765
00:38:30,960 --> 00:38:32,320
Speaker 3: my pleasure, thanks for having on guys.

766
00:38:35,239 --> 00:38:38,520
Speaker 2: So as all of this unfolds, with the trade war

767
00:38:38,680 --> 00:38:42,880
Speaker 2: and the anti Semitism quote unquote crackdown and the Alien

768
00:38:42,960 --> 00:38:45,760
Speaker 2: Enemies Act and the court battles, we thought we would

769
00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:49,560
Speaker 2: check in with how Trump is doing in general in

770
00:38:49,600 --> 00:38:52,520
Speaker 2: the polls, but specifically with some of the groups where

771
00:38:52,560 --> 00:38:56,240
Speaker 2: he really made gains viz. A VI his own past performance,

772
00:38:56,280 --> 00:38:59,480
Speaker 2: but also Republican Party performance with some of these key

773
00:38:59,480 --> 00:39:04,120
Speaker 2: demographs groups. And some of these numbers are really really notable.

774
00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:07,239
Speaker 2: Let's put this first one up on the screen, probably

775
00:39:07,719 --> 00:39:12,160
Speaker 2: the most stunning, given how well Trump performed with young men.

776
00:39:12,200 --> 00:39:15,520
Speaker 2: We have a new Harvard Youth poll and his disapproval

777
00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:20,080
Speaker 2: with young men is now at fifty nine percent. Forty

778
00:39:20,120 --> 00:39:23,160
Speaker 2: percent say that they are worse off now under Trump,

779
00:39:23,280 --> 00:39:25,960
Speaker 2: that is versus twenty nine percent only that say they

780
00:39:26,000 --> 00:39:29,719
Speaker 2: are better off. Forty seven percent, so almost a majority

781
00:39:29,840 --> 00:39:33,560
Speaker 2: say that Trump will hurt the economy. And just back

782
00:39:33,560 --> 00:39:37,840
Speaker 2: in January, sixty two percent actually approved of Trump on

783
00:39:38,040 --> 00:39:40,799
Speaker 2: the economy. So, Sager, you know, we can look at

784
00:39:40,800 --> 00:39:44,279
Speaker 2: the election results and how he really outperformed with this

785
00:39:44,400 --> 00:39:48,080
Speaker 2: group visa VI previous Republicans and vs V his own

786
00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:51,640
Speaker 2: performance in twenty sixteen and twenty twenty. And we can

787
00:39:51,680 --> 00:39:54,120
Speaker 2: also look at the way this group felt about him

788
00:39:54,200 --> 00:39:56,359
Speaker 2: coming into the administration. There was a lot of hope

789
00:39:56,360 --> 00:39:58,120
Speaker 2: that you know, we'd be a great president for business

790
00:39:58,120 --> 00:40:01,000
Speaker 2: and he would help them economically. And you know, there

791
00:40:01,000 --> 00:40:04,759
Speaker 2: were some cultural alignments there as well. And just as

792
00:40:04,840 --> 00:40:07,520
Speaker 2: quickly as he won some of these folks over, it

793
00:40:07,560 --> 00:40:11,600
Speaker 2: seems like they have soured and are unhappy. I have

794
00:40:11,719 --> 00:40:14,120
Speaker 2: to think that the trade war is just a gigantic

795
00:40:14,239 --> 00:40:15,400
Speaker 2: part of that trade war.

796
00:40:15,320 --> 00:40:17,560
Speaker 3: Is massive, and so really when you dig into a

797
00:40:17,600 --> 00:40:20,120
Speaker 3: lot of this stuff, you can actually see in the

798
00:40:20,160 --> 00:40:22,320
Speaker 3: minute groups. Keep in mind, this is the Pew research,

799
00:40:22,800 --> 00:40:25,600
Speaker 3: you know, the actual demographic pole, which is pretty good

800
00:40:25,640 --> 00:40:28,400
Speaker 3: in terms of its substance. I mean, I will obviously

801
00:40:28,480 --> 00:40:31,360
Speaker 3: give the caveat polls et cetera. With Trump have not

802
00:40:31,440 --> 00:40:35,040
Speaker 3: always been all that accurate. But I actually do think

803
00:40:35,080 --> 00:40:40,560
Speaker 3: that on demographics like young men and on latinos, those

804
00:40:40,719 --> 00:40:44,680
Speaker 3: were accurately captured in twenty twenty four, and a lot

805
00:40:44,719 --> 00:40:47,399
Speaker 3: of them fit with the global data that we saw

806
00:40:47,480 --> 00:40:50,520
Speaker 3: coming out. Now when we think again about the kind

807
00:40:50,560 --> 00:40:53,960
Speaker 3: of the where things are headed across the globe, economic concerns,

808
00:40:54,280 --> 00:40:57,480
Speaker 3: and broadly also around media, environment and top issues, a

809
00:40:57,480 --> 00:40:59,239
Speaker 3: lot of this would track. So let's put the next

810
00:40:59,239 --> 00:41:02,120
Speaker 3: one up on the screen, because we can dig even further,

811
00:41:02,239 --> 00:41:04,839
Speaker 3: I think into it. What you see here is a

812
00:41:04,880 --> 00:41:09,719
Speaker 3: similar sharp dropoff of approval amongst Hispanics. In the Pew

813
00:41:09,760 --> 00:41:14,200
Speaker 3: Research poll, twenty seven percent approved, seventy two percent disapprove.

814
00:41:14,520 --> 00:41:15,799
Speaker 1: Now, I mean I.

815
00:41:15,719 --> 00:41:18,920
Speaker 3: Should always put the caveat that there are many people

816
00:41:18,920 --> 00:41:21,440
Speaker 3: who support Trump and or voted for him who actually

817
00:41:21,440 --> 00:41:23,960
Speaker 3: disapproved of him, which is kind of an interesting dynamic.

818
00:41:24,000 --> 00:41:26,279
Speaker 3: But considering that he's at least as far as we know,

819
00:41:26,400 --> 00:41:28,240
Speaker 3: not going to be on the ballot again, the reason

820
00:41:28,239 --> 00:41:30,120
Speaker 3: why I think that we should at least look here

821
00:41:30,560 --> 00:41:34,080
Speaker 3: is that the dropoff and constituency can tell us a

822
00:41:34,120 --> 00:41:37,439
Speaker 3: little bit about the issues that we are seeing can

823
00:41:37,719 --> 00:41:40,800
Speaker 3: contribute to this. So one of them is deportation and immigration.

824
00:41:40,960 --> 00:41:44,960
Speaker 3: There's just no question if you ask people, especially issue

825
00:41:45,000 --> 00:41:48,120
Speaker 3: by issue, what they approve most of of Trump. Even

826
00:41:48,160 --> 00:41:51,880
Speaker 3: within immigration, it's about quote, border security, and it's about

827
00:41:51,880 --> 00:41:52,760
Speaker 3: the drop off.

828
00:41:52,760 --> 00:41:54,239
Speaker 1: In the number of border crossings.

829
00:41:54,360 --> 00:41:56,800
Speaker 3: But when you start to get into El Salvador and

830
00:41:56,880 --> 00:41:59,719
Speaker 3: specifically the Obrego Garcia case, you start to see this

831
00:41:59,760 --> 00:42:02,200
Speaker 3: twenty seven to seventy two stuff begin to show up.

832
00:42:02,360 --> 00:42:04,440
Speaker 3: Same on the young men, you know that you flagged.

833
00:42:04,480 --> 00:42:06,280
Speaker 3: The reason why I think that one is more important

834
00:42:06,719 --> 00:42:09,080
Speaker 3: is that young men and young women right now, and

835
00:42:09,440 --> 00:42:10,759
Speaker 3: we're going to get to this in a little bit,

836
00:42:10,920 --> 00:42:15,480
Speaker 3: are facing a absolutely devastating economic situation where you have

837
00:42:15,960 --> 00:42:19,880
Speaker 3: high interest rates and now you have a frozen economy,

838
00:42:20,000 --> 00:42:22,520
Speaker 3: especially at a hiring level. So one of the things

839
00:42:22,520 --> 00:42:24,839
Speaker 3: that I have heard privately from so many people who

840
00:42:24,880 --> 00:42:27,400
Speaker 3: work in the Fortune five hundred is we have a

841
00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:30,040
Speaker 3: de facto hiring freeze across the entire company.

842
00:42:30,239 --> 00:42:31,360
Speaker 1: That's really devastating.

843
00:42:31,520 --> 00:42:33,759
Speaker 3: Because it's April twenty fourth, as you and I are

844
00:42:33,760 --> 00:42:37,000
Speaker 3: recording this right now, which means two three weeks from now,

845
00:42:37,360 --> 00:42:40,400
Speaker 3: we have so many kids who are graduating from college

846
00:42:40,520 --> 00:42:43,239
Speaker 3: and graduating from high school. Well that's exactly when you

847
00:42:43,400 --> 00:42:45,880
Speaker 3: enter the job market. I mean, this is basically akin

848
00:42:46,200 --> 00:42:49,160
Speaker 3: to graduating in two thousand and nine, and so now

849
00:42:49,400 --> 00:42:53,080
Speaker 3: they really are facing a frozen employment and or lower wages,

850
00:42:53,360 --> 00:42:55,959
Speaker 3: you know, maybe less bonuses, which means that you're gonna

851
00:42:55,960 --> 00:42:59,080
Speaker 3: have less money, less earning power, and you still face

852
00:42:59,280 --> 00:43:01,799
Speaker 3: a very high cost of living in many of these

853
00:43:01,800 --> 00:43:04,960
Speaker 3: different places. So that type of economic procarity I think

854
00:43:05,080 --> 00:43:07,400
Speaker 3: is really starting to set in for a lot of

855
00:43:07,440 --> 00:43:10,319
Speaker 3: the younger guys in particular, who saw a lot of

856
00:43:10,360 --> 00:43:13,720
Speaker 3: dissatisfaction you know, with Biden and felt like they really

857
00:43:13,760 --> 00:43:16,040
Speaker 3: their concerns weren't being looked at. And I think in

858
00:43:16,080 --> 00:43:19,080
Speaker 3: this particular case, they're beginning to see the exact same thing.

859
00:43:19,160 --> 00:43:20,840
Speaker 3: Same with the stocks. I mean, you know, we've talked

860
00:43:21,000 --> 00:43:23,360
Speaker 3: about this. It's funny to make fun of. It's funny

861
00:43:23,400 --> 00:43:25,760
Speaker 3: to talk about, like, oh, crypto, what did Kamma says,

862
00:43:25,760 --> 00:43:28,359
Speaker 3: like crypto is a black mail issue or something, But

863
00:43:28,440 --> 00:43:31,680
Speaker 3: like I do think it's undeniable that it is something

864
00:43:31,760 --> 00:43:34,120
Speaker 3: that young people look at or we've got a cattail

865
00:43:34,160 --> 00:43:39,320
Speaker 3: there in our in our it's undeniable that they're younger

866
00:43:39,320 --> 00:43:40,960
Speaker 3: guys in particular, if we look at the robin Hood

867
00:43:41,000 --> 00:43:43,400
Speaker 3: phenomenon and things like that are paying attention if not,

868
00:43:43,520 --> 00:43:46,319
Speaker 3: and or equity owners. And you've seen massive, you know,

869
00:43:46,520 --> 00:43:49,320
Speaker 3: correction in the stock market, almost down by fifteen sixteen

870
00:43:49,360 --> 00:43:52,120
Speaker 3: percent from the all time high in November after Trump

871
00:43:52,400 --> 00:43:54,759
Speaker 3: was elected. So there is just no question that there

872
00:43:54,760 --> 00:43:58,160
Speaker 3: has been both a shift in terms of quote the vibe,

873
00:43:58,480 --> 00:44:00,239
Speaker 3: which you know warned about at the time. I mean,

874
00:44:00,280 --> 00:44:02,200
Speaker 3: so you can live and die by it, but really

875
00:44:02,239 --> 00:44:05,080
Speaker 3: at a material level, you're seeing the reduction. People can

876
00:44:05,120 --> 00:44:07,080
Speaker 3: see the riding on the wall, and they're beginning to

877
00:44:07,200 --> 00:44:08,440
Speaker 3: express their dissatisfaction.

878
00:44:08,920 --> 00:44:10,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't think there's any doubt about it. And

879
00:44:10,680 --> 00:44:14,680
Speaker 2: I just think about the experience of millennials graduating into

880
00:44:15,000 --> 00:44:18,520
Speaker 2: the Great Recession and the way that that that combined

881
00:44:18,560 --> 00:44:22,280
Speaker 2: with the Iraq War, shaped the politics of the millennial generation.

882
00:44:22,400 --> 00:44:24,359
Speaker 2: Millennials are you know, one of the most left wing

883
00:44:24,520 --> 00:44:28,839
Speaker 2: generations in American history, and you know, there, I think

884
00:44:28,880 --> 00:44:31,759
Speaker 2: gen Z was really up for grabs. And I would say,

885
00:44:31,800 --> 00:44:33,680
Speaker 2: you know, my sense of this generation is they're not

886
00:44:33,840 --> 00:44:36,920
Speaker 2: enamored with either party. Let's be honest, Democrats have a

887
00:44:36,920 --> 00:44:39,760
Speaker 2: lot of work to do if they're going to affirmatively

888
00:44:39,880 --> 00:44:42,759
Speaker 2: win over young men, because it's one thing for young

889
00:44:42,760 --> 00:44:44,680
Speaker 2: men to say, you, now this Trump thing, this doesn't

890
00:44:44,719 --> 00:44:46,799
Speaker 2: really working out the way that I wanted to it too,

891
00:44:47,120 --> 00:44:49,399
Speaker 2: it's another thing to say, like, okay, but this other

892
00:44:49,520 --> 00:44:53,880
Speaker 2: party is offering something that is superior and that you know,

893
00:44:54,000 --> 00:44:56,520
Speaker 2: is appealing to me and my life, and I think

894
00:44:56,600 --> 00:44:59,600
Speaker 2: is going to is going to sorry the cattle, misspell,

895
00:45:00,200 --> 00:45:04,520
Speaker 2: going to actually improve my material circumstance. So you know,

896
00:45:04,680 --> 00:45:09,120
Speaker 2: this is far from a victory done deal for Democrats,

897
00:45:09,480 --> 00:45:12,480
Speaker 2: but it just shows you, Sager, these groups are up

898
00:45:12,480 --> 00:45:15,719
Speaker 2: for grabs. You know, people are not autumatized.

899
00:45:15,760 --> 00:45:16,239
Speaker 4: I do there.

900
00:45:16,360 --> 00:45:19,600
Speaker 2: Look, there are people who are highly polarized, and they're

901
00:45:19,680 --> 00:45:21,680
Speaker 2: voting for Trump it doesn't matter what he does, or

902
00:45:21,719 --> 00:45:24,160
Speaker 2: voting for the Republicans or voting for the Democrats, no

903
00:45:24,160 --> 00:45:26,680
Speaker 2: matter what come hell or high water. But I think

904
00:45:26,719 --> 00:45:30,200
Speaker 2: one of the major failures of political scientists over the

905
00:45:30,239 --> 00:45:33,920
Speaker 2: past I don't know, since I've been following politics, has

906
00:45:33,960 --> 00:45:38,640
Speaker 2: been to underestimate how much people genuinely can shift over

907
00:45:38,880 --> 00:45:42,680
Speaker 2: you know, one election cycle, two election cycles, a couple

908
00:45:42,680 --> 00:45:43,880
Speaker 2: of presidential terms.

909
00:45:44,280 --> 00:45:45,279
Speaker 4: It is remarkable.

910
00:45:45,640 --> 00:45:49,479
Speaker 2: And so I think with Latinos, they felt like, Okay,

911
00:45:49,520 --> 00:45:52,959
Speaker 2: I was doing better economically in the first Trump administration,

912
00:45:53,480 --> 00:45:56,360
Speaker 2: Let's give this guy another shot. We'd seen the numbers

913
00:45:56,400 --> 00:45:59,120
Speaker 2: creeping up. We'd seen the sort of realignment in general

914
00:45:59,200 --> 00:46:03,399
Speaker 2: where non college educated voters because of cultural issues as

915
00:46:03,440 --> 00:46:05,879
Speaker 2: well as this sense that Trump's the businessman and will

916
00:46:05,920 --> 00:46:10,920
Speaker 2: do better economically, had been shifting along ideological lines. But

917
00:46:11,040 --> 00:46:13,200
Speaker 2: none of that is set in stone. You know, all

918
00:46:13,239 --> 00:46:17,319
Speaker 2: of it can be unraveled. And so for Democrats, the

919
00:46:17,400 --> 00:46:20,120
Speaker 2: nightmare scenario was always that, Okay, you're going to lose

920
00:46:20,160 --> 00:46:22,719
Speaker 2: the young generation, and you're going to lose if you

921
00:46:22,960 --> 00:46:27,320
Speaker 2: continue to lose working class voters, non college educated voters

922
00:46:27,320 --> 00:46:30,879
Speaker 2: across demographic groups, and you really have this full realignment,

923
00:46:31,280 --> 00:46:35,560
Speaker 2: you're done. Your permanent minority party. And so Trump has

924
00:46:35,640 --> 00:46:39,880
Speaker 2: created an opportunity, you know, with the trade war in particular,

925
00:46:40,120 --> 00:46:45,000
Speaker 2: where unlike the Great Recession, where sort of both parties

926
00:46:45,280 --> 00:46:48,040
Speaker 2: had some blood on their hands in terms of creating

927
00:46:48,040 --> 00:46:51,040
Speaker 2: that economic climate, and there was some bipartisan blamed to

928
00:46:51,080 --> 00:46:55,440
Speaker 2: go around, etc. With this, and it's really clear cut.

929
00:46:56,000 --> 00:46:59,839
Speaker 2: If you're graduating high school, if you're graduating college into

930
00:46:59,880 --> 00:47:03,400
Speaker 2: the climate, you know exactly where to lay the blame

931
00:47:03,440 --> 00:47:06,400
Speaker 2: at this point. And you know, we've also got we

932
00:47:06,440 --> 00:47:08,800
Speaker 2: can put up some of these additional numbers from Q

933
00:47:09,000 --> 00:47:11,080
Speaker 2: research that just shows the way that his numbers are

934
00:47:11,080 --> 00:47:14,839
Speaker 2: declining on issues across the board. So even on his

935
00:47:15,400 --> 00:47:20,920
Speaker 2: best issue, which is immigration, even there he is underwater

936
00:47:21,040 --> 00:47:23,840
Speaker 2: on the question of make good decisions about immigration policy,

937
00:47:23,880 --> 00:47:26,160
Speaker 2: and that's his strongest one. Then you've got you know,

938
00:47:26,200 --> 00:47:30,759
Speaker 2: negotiate favorable trade agreements, not doing well, handle public health emergency,

939
00:47:30,800 --> 00:47:33,919
Speaker 2: god forbid, make good decisions about economic policy. He's ten

940
00:47:34,000 --> 00:47:36,600
Speaker 2: points underwater on that. I mean, you know, these are

941
00:47:36,640 --> 00:47:40,719
Speaker 2: extraordinary things for Trump, where economics has always been his

942
00:47:40,880 --> 00:47:44,440
Speaker 2: strong suit. And make good decisions about foreign policy. We'll

943
00:47:44,440 --> 00:47:46,759
Speaker 2: talk more about that in the Ukraine block, but you

944
00:47:46,760 --> 00:47:49,719
Speaker 2: know he's significantly underwater there as well. And then on

945
00:47:49,840 --> 00:47:52,520
Speaker 2: just basic competence. We can put the next piece up

946
00:47:52,560 --> 00:47:55,640
Speaker 2: on the screen. You can see the different demographic groups

947
00:47:55,920 --> 00:47:58,720
Speaker 2: and their headline. Here is his approval rating is underwater

948
00:47:58,760 --> 00:48:02,319
Speaker 2: among most groups. Basically only Republicans and Trump voters are

949
00:48:02,360 --> 00:48:05,439
Speaker 2: the ones who remain largely positive. And this is where

950
00:48:05,440 --> 00:48:08,400
Speaker 2: you can see, you know, that number with regard to Hispanics.

951
00:48:08,640 --> 00:48:10,759
Speaker 2: You can see where black voters are, you can see

952
00:48:10,800 --> 00:48:14,080
Speaker 2: where men are, where women are, where each age group is.

953
00:48:14,680 --> 00:48:16,920
Speaker 2: The age group that he continues to do the best

954
00:48:16,920 --> 00:48:20,160
Speaker 2: with is basically like gen Z gen X rather I guess,

955
00:48:20,200 --> 00:48:24,000
Speaker 2: but even there he is still underwater. So you know,

956
00:48:24,280 --> 00:48:27,120
Speaker 2: there's a lot. I mean, I wouldn't even say warning

957
00:48:27,160 --> 00:48:30,239
Speaker 2: signs at this point. It's just really clear that the

958
00:48:30,239 --> 00:48:33,399
Speaker 2: trade war in particular has been devastating for him, and

959
00:48:33,760 --> 00:48:38,040
Speaker 2: even on the issues where he was previously strongest, which

960
00:48:38,040 --> 00:48:43,520
Speaker 2: would certainly be immigration, because of the way that he has,

961
00:48:44,440 --> 00:48:46,160
Speaker 2: you know, the way he's gone about this and then

962
00:48:46,239 --> 00:48:52,560
Speaker 2: just like undeniably awful and cruel and also do process

963
00:48:52,680 --> 00:48:56,880
Speaker 2: undermining direction that he has taken. Even there, people are saying,

964
00:48:57,000 --> 00:48:58,680
Speaker 2: you know what, this is not this is not what

965
00:48:58,719 --> 00:48:59,320
Speaker 2: I want.

966
00:48:59,239 --> 00:48:59,920
Speaker 1: Yes, exactly.

967
00:49:00,280 --> 00:49:02,000
Speaker 3: Look, I mean I think it really comes down to

968
00:49:02,080 --> 00:49:05,239
Speaker 3: chaos and process, and this is where having people who

969
00:49:05,239 --> 00:49:08,720
Speaker 3: are competent and smart matters, you know, in not doing things.

970
00:49:08,880 --> 00:49:10,200
Speaker 3: And I mean, we're going to talk about this ice

971
00:49:10,280 --> 00:49:12,520
Speaker 3: thing later on. It's like they just lie, like they

972
00:49:12,560 --> 00:49:14,359
Speaker 3: just lie about stuff, They make things that they have

973
00:49:14,440 --> 00:49:17,400
Speaker 3: no confidence in the process. And then going forward, can

974
00:49:17,440 --> 00:49:21,280
Speaker 3: any serious person who is defending any of this really

975
00:49:21,280 --> 00:49:23,560
Speaker 3: come back and say, well, the government says, it's like,

976
00:49:23,600 --> 00:49:26,520
Speaker 3: that's a joke, right, And it's one where it tells

977
00:49:26,560 --> 00:49:30,239
Speaker 3: you that many people who are casual observers and may

978
00:49:30,239 --> 00:49:33,799
Speaker 3: even support these things in principle, have very little confidence

979
00:49:33,880 --> 00:49:36,880
Speaker 3: and faith in the credibility of what the President and

980
00:49:36,920 --> 00:49:40,040
Speaker 3: the administration says. From immigration and trade, which again are

981
00:49:40,080 --> 00:49:43,360
Speaker 3: two issues where he usually does pretty well, I do

982
00:49:43,440 --> 00:49:46,080
Speaker 3: want to highlight this before up on the screen.

983
00:49:46,280 --> 00:49:48,880
Speaker 1: This was a huge recession indicator to me.

984
00:49:49,280 --> 00:49:51,680
Speaker 3: Is quote, the competition to get into law school right

985
00:49:51,680 --> 00:49:54,680
Speaker 3: now is brutal. It's the exact same thing that happened

986
00:49:54,719 --> 00:49:57,000
Speaker 3: in two thousand and nine. I'm comparing it also to

987
00:49:57,040 --> 00:50:00,799
Speaker 3: Georgetown University here in Washington, which has received literally more

988
00:50:00,840 --> 00:50:05,480
Speaker 3: applications ever than in its entire existence. Just this year,

989
00:50:05,840 --> 00:50:08,160
Speaker 3: number of applications also to the other two hundred law

990
00:50:08,200 --> 00:50:11,120
Speaker 3: schools up by over twenty percent. The reason why is

991
00:50:11,160 --> 00:50:13,480
Speaker 3: that a lot of students facing the job market that

992
00:50:13,520 --> 00:50:16,080
Speaker 3: I just described, say well, maybe I'll just go into

993
00:50:16,120 --> 00:50:18,720
Speaker 3: law school for three years and hope that things are better.

994
00:50:18,960 --> 00:50:21,200
Speaker 1: I would definitely caution a lot of people to do that.

995
00:50:21,239 --> 00:50:23,320
Speaker 3: With the rise of AI and with two hundred thousand

996
00:50:23,360 --> 00:50:25,560
Speaker 3: dollars in debt that you might have on your sheet,

997
00:50:25,640 --> 00:50:27,880
Speaker 3: but that was one we're just looking at that.

998
00:50:28,000 --> 00:50:30,239
Speaker 1: I was like, hmm, there's something going on here.

999
00:50:30,360 --> 00:50:32,720
Speaker 3: It's very clear about the lack of faith that people

1000
00:50:32,760 --> 00:50:35,160
Speaker 3: have in the job market, especially for people who are

1001
00:50:35,200 --> 00:50:37,080
Speaker 3: credentialed graduating from college.

1002
00:50:37,160 --> 00:50:40,680
Speaker 1: You also found this. This is amazing. This is an old.

1003
00:50:40,480 --> 00:50:46,000
Speaker 3: School BuzzFeed style article which now has recession indicators that

1004
00:50:46,040 --> 00:50:48,400
Speaker 3: people are noticing. Are we look, this is not one

1005
00:50:48,480 --> 00:50:50,760
Speaker 3: hundred percent serious, but it is actually really funny.

1006
00:50:50,880 --> 00:50:53,000
Speaker 1: So they put together these twenty three subtle ones.

1007
00:50:53,280 --> 00:50:56,840
Speaker 3: One was five dollars blackjack tables at the Aria in

1008
00:50:56,920 --> 00:51:01,320
Speaker 3: Las Vegas. Plumbers showing up on time, Italian sandwich shops

1009
00:51:01,320 --> 00:51:05,000
Speaker 3: and prime locations, struggling, more students in the master's and

1010
00:51:05,080 --> 00:51:08,600
Speaker 3: PhD programs in law school, companies moving overseas, real estate,

1011
00:51:08,640 --> 00:51:14,240
Speaker 3: ghost towns, a lack of botox, empty strip clubs, big lottery.

1012
00:51:13,920 --> 00:51:15,600
Speaker 4: Jacklut it's got to be a big one, the empty

1013
00:51:15,600 --> 00:51:16,040
Speaker 4: strip club.

1014
00:51:16,160 --> 00:51:18,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, they made that whole movie about it, Hustlers that

1015
00:51:18,480 --> 00:51:20,240
Speaker 3: the Jalo movie. It's actually a great movie.

1016
00:51:20,920 --> 00:51:21,160
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1017
00:51:21,200 --> 00:51:24,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, about two thousand and nine, big lottery jackpots, fixeder

1018
00:51:24,960 --> 00:51:30,160
Speaker 3: cars on Facebook, used guitar surplus, home cooked lunches, owners

1019
00:51:30,160 --> 00:51:34,840
Speaker 3: sold cars, a lack of work, injuries, availability at the vet,

1020
00:51:35,200 --> 00:51:38,920
Speaker 3: big company cost reductions, advertising to people who have already

1021
00:51:38,960 --> 00:51:43,160
Speaker 3: bought something, short fast food lines, card collections on sale,

1022
00:51:43,480 --> 00:51:46,880
Speaker 3: parking at Costco where there's plenty of parking on a Saturday,

1023
00:51:47,239 --> 00:51:51,720
Speaker 3: loan denials, declined payments, and finally the direct tariff effect,

1024
00:51:51,719 --> 00:51:53,280
Speaker 3: which is increased prices.

1025
00:51:53,440 --> 00:51:54,600
Speaker 1: Now take all of that.

1026
00:51:54,640 --> 00:51:57,640
Speaker 3: For my own personal anecdote is talking to my barber

1027
00:51:57,800 --> 00:52:01,120
Speaker 3: and he says people are waiting longer in between haircuts

1028
00:52:01,200 --> 00:52:03,840
Speaker 3: to come, and usually they would do every three weeks.

1029
00:52:03,880 --> 00:52:04,799
Speaker 1: Now they're waiting five.

1030
00:52:05,040 --> 00:52:06,799
Speaker 3: And he was like, man, I can already tell you

1031
00:52:06,840 --> 00:52:08,960
Speaker 3: we're seeing a reduction across the board and are a

1032
00:52:09,040 --> 00:52:09,880
Speaker 3: number of customers.

1033
00:52:09,880 --> 00:52:11,520
Speaker 1: So take for that what you will.

1034
00:52:11,800 --> 00:52:13,719
Speaker 2: No, I mean, all these little signs like they do

1035
00:52:13,800 --> 00:52:15,520
Speaker 2: add up. Listen, I haven't been to Costco in a

1036
00:52:15,560 --> 00:52:17,239
Speaker 2: little while. If I show up at Costco on a

1037
00:52:17,239 --> 00:52:19,279
Speaker 2: Saturday and that parking lot is MCI, I'm gonna know

1038
00:52:19,360 --> 00:52:20,279
Speaker 2: some shit is going down.

1039
00:52:20,320 --> 00:52:21,880
Speaker 4: There is no doubt about it whatsoever.

1040
00:52:23,560 --> 00:52:25,440
Speaker 3: Even in a recession, I would not dare go to

1041
00:52:25,480 --> 00:52:28,400
Speaker 3: Costco on a Saturday that's the absolute worst time to go.

1042
00:52:28,920 --> 00:52:31,120
Speaker 1: But yeah, all of these, all of these are signs.

1043
00:52:30,880 --> 00:52:33,680
Speaker 3: People people are, you know, picking up on it the

1044
00:52:33,680 --> 00:52:37,120
Speaker 3: equities market, perhaps talking to people at work dealing with

1045
00:52:37,160 --> 00:52:39,120
Speaker 3: their industry. If you're a trucker and you start to

1046
00:52:39,120 --> 00:52:41,160
Speaker 3: see the number of freight that's come in go down,

1047
00:52:41,280 --> 00:52:43,440
Speaker 3: you know what that means for you, which means what

1048
00:52:43,480 --> 00:52:45,719
Speaker 3: you start to save cash if you have some rack up,

1049
00:52:45,760 --> 00:52:47,960
Speaker 3: some credit card debt. We're seeing the credit card debt

1050
00:52:48,280 --> 00:52:51,719
Speaker 3: reach highs. Credit card companies are warning Wall Street saying

1051
00:52:51,719 --> 00:52:55,520
Speaker 3: that we are seeing delinquency rise across the board. So

1052
00:52:55,800 --> 00:52:57,759
Speaker 3: there's a lot of a lot of things you could

1053
00:52:57,760 --> 00:52:59,560
Speaker 3: see right there. All right, let's go ahead and get

1054
00:52:59,600 --> 00:53:00,000
Speaker 3: to you.

1055
00:53:00,080 --> 00:53:00,560
Speaker 1: So go ahead.

1056
00:53:00,840 --> 00:53:03,080
Speaker 2: Well I was just going to say, I, well, number one,

1057
00:53:03,120 --> 00:53:05,040
Speaker 2: I'm at war with my cat over here. But number two,

1058
00:53:06,160 --> 00:53:09,359
Speaker 2: I saw a survey that found a majority of Americans

1059
00:53:09,600 --> 00:53:13,560
Speaker 2: say that their personal financial situation is getting worse, and

1060
00:53:14,000 --> 00:53:16,520
Speaker 2: that is actually a higher We didn't even have a

1061
00:53:16,560 --> 00:53:20,640
Speaker 2: majority saying that like during the Great Recession. So outside

1062
00:53:20,640 --> 00:53:23,880
Speaker 2: of the goofy like you know, the strip club or whatever,

1063
00:53:24,760 --> 00:53:28,040
Speaker 2: we have a lot of real indicators that people consumers

1064
00:53:28,040 --> 00:53:30,720
Speaker 2: are pulling back, that people are worried, and that businesses

1065
00:53:30,760 --> 00:53:33,200
Speaker 2: are pulling them back, and that layoffs are beginning. And

1066
00:53:33,480 --> 00:53:36,520
Speaker 2: you know, so if you think things look politically ugly

1067
00:53:36,560 --> 00:53:38,960
Speaker 2: for Trump right now, not that that's the most important thing,

1068
00:53:39,080 --> 00:53:40,320
Speaker 2: but they're going to get worse.

1069
00:53:43,320 --> 00:53:45,520
Speaker 3: At the same time, there's been some major movement with

1070
00:53:45,600 --> 00:53:49,160
Speaker 3: respect to Ukraine. President Trump and his team signaling that

1071
00:53:49,320 --> 00:53:51,880
Speaker 3: the next two weeks is a critical period for Russia

1072
00:53:52,000 --> 00:53:54,960
Speaker 3: and for Ukraine to come towards a peace deal that's

1073
00:53:55,000 --> 00:53:58,160
Speaker 3: been outlined by the administration. The Vice President on the

1074
00:53:58,200 --> 00:54:01,000
Speaker 3: ground in India actually gave him out line with respect

1075
00:54:01,040 --> 00:54:02,280
Speaker 3: to the administration's position.

1076
00:54:02,480 --> 00:54:03,240
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.

1077
00:54:03,480 --> 00:54:06,720
Speaker 11: We've issued a very explicit proposal to both the Russians

1078
00:54:06,760 --> 00:54:09,279
Speaker 11: and the Ukrainians, and it's time for them to either

1079
00:54:09,360 --> 00:54:11,799
Speaker 11: say yes or for the United States to walk away

1080
00:54:11,800 --> 00:54:14,040
Speaker 11: from this process. I think that we've put together a

1081
00:54:14,160 --> 00:54:17,320
Speaker 11: very fair proposal. We're going to see if the Europeans,

1082
00:54:17,520 --> 00:54:20,520
Speaker 11: the Russians, and the Ukrainians are ultimately able to get

1083
00:54:20,520 --> 00:54:22,000
Speaker 11: this thing over the finish line.

1084
00:54:22,120 --> 00:54:22,440
Speaker 8: Again.

1085
00:54:22,680 --> 00:54:25,399
Speaker 11: I feel pretty optimistic about it. I think everybody has

1086
00:54:25,400 --> 00:54:28,200
Speaker 11: been negotiating in good faith, but it's now time. I

1087
00:54:28,200 --> 00:54:30,880
Speaker 11: think to take, if not the final step, one of

1088
00:54:30,920 --> 00:54:33,560
Speaker 11: the final steps, which is at a broad level, the

1089
00:54:33,640 --> 00:54:36,319
Speaker 11: party saying we're going to stop the killing, We're going

1090
00:54:36,400 --> 00:54:39,759
Speaker 11: to freeze the territorial lines at some level close to

1091
00:54:39,760 --> 00:54:42,400
Speaker 11: where they are today, and we're going to actually put

1092
00:54:42,520 --> 00:54:45,279
Speaker 11: in place the kind of long term diplomatic settlement that

1093
00:54:45,320 --> 00:54:46,879
Speaker 11: hopefully will lead to long term piece.

1094
00:54:47,239 --> 00:54:50,040
Speaker 3: Just to clarify, so you want the current lines of

1095
00:54:50,120 --> 00:54:52,279
Speaker 3: war in the war and you create to remain the

1096
00:54:52,320 --> 00:54:53,480
Speaker 3: same under your proposal.

1097
00:54:53,600 --> 00:54:55,200
Speaker 11: No, no, I didn't say that. What I said is

1098
00:54:55,239 --> 00:54:58,480
Speaker 11: the current line somewhere close to them is where you're ultimately,

1099
00:54:58,520 --> 00:55:01,839
Speaker 11: I think, going to draw the new line in the conflict. Now,

1100
00:55:01,880 --> 00:55:04,719
Speaker 11: of course that means the Ukrainians and the Russians are

1101
00:55:04,760 --> 00:55:06,120
Speaker 11: both going to have to give up some of the

1102
00:55:06,200 --> 00:55:08,600
Speaker 11: territory they currently own. There's going to have to be

1103
00:55:08,640 --> 00:55:09,960
Speaker 11: some territorial swaps.

1104
00:55:10,160 --> 00:55:13,600
Speaker 3: So that was ahead of what is now even further developments.

1105
00:55:13,640 --> 00:55:15,760
Speaker 3: Let's put this next part please up on the screen.

1106
00:55:15,800 --> 00:55:16,480
Speaker 1: C three.

1107
00:55:16,719 --> 00:55:20,480
Speaker 3: This was an initial reaction from the President after some

1108
00:55:21,000 --> 00:55:26,120
Speaker 3: statements by Zelenski. Now, specifically, what Zelenski and Trump here

1109
00:55:26,200 --> 00:55:30,400
Speaker 3: are sparring around is the US potential de facto recognition

1110
00:55:30,840 --> 00:55:35,960
Speaker 3: of Crimea and specifically also the Ukrainian uh basically acceptance

1111
00:55:36,000 --> 00:55:38,360
Speaker 3: of that. So quote talks and the war in Ukraine

1112
00:55:38,360 --> 00:55:42,000
Speaker 3: are stalled, leaving Trump frustrated and blaming Zelensky for failing

1113
00:55:42,040 --> 00:55:45,440
Speaker 3: to accept. A peace plan of meeting Wednesday in London

1114
00:55:45,480 --> 00:55:47,160
Speaker 3: that was billed as a make or break moment for

1115
00:55:47,200 --> 00:55:50,000
Speaker 3: the talks fizzled after the Secretary of State Marco Rubio

1116
00:55:50,040 --> 00:55:53,560
Speaker 3: and Steve Witkoff just cancel their plans to attend. This

1117
00:55:53,760 --> 00:55:56,640
Speaker 3: was after Zelenski pushed back against a proposal for a

1118
00:55:56,680 --> 00:56:00,680
Speaker 3: peace deal that Washington would de facto recognize the Russian

1119
00:56:00,719 --> 00:56:04,279
Speaker 3: sovereignty over the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia has occupied since

1120
00:56:04,320 --> 00:56:07,880
Speaker 3: two thousand and fourteen. Trump criticized Zelenski for his comments,

1121
00:56:07,920 --> 00:56:10,720
Speaker 3: pointing out that Ukraine itself was being asked to recognize

1122
00:56:10,760 --> 00:56:14,040
Speaker 3: Crimea as Russian. It is quote inflammatory statements like Zelenski's

1123
00:56:14,080 --> 00:56:16,520
Speaker 3: that make it so difficult to settle this war. Trump

1124
00:56:16,560 --> 00:56:19,640
Speaker 3: said in one of his truth social posts, I should

1125
00:56:19,640 --> 00:56:23,239
Speaker 3: know Zelensky. Interestingly enough, it hasn't aired yet, Crystal, but

1126
00:56:23,280 --> 00:56:26,800
Speaker 3: he did sit down with Ben Shapiro recently. The interview

1127
00:56:26,800 --> 00:56:30,040
Speaker 3: will air I think sometime today. So I'm actually curious

1128
00:56:30,080 --> 00:56:32,400
Speaker 3: to see what the guy has to say. He did

1129
00:56:32,600 --> 00:56:34,719
Speaker 3: admit that the Oval Office meeting did not go well

1130
00:56:34,760 --> 00:56:38,359
Speaker 3: for him and for Ukraine. But what this does show

1131
00:56:38,440 --> 00:56:42,200
Speaker 3: us is that Trump is in a very difficult position.

1132
00:56:42,600 --> 00:56:45,960
Speaker 3: You have Zelensky Parwai couldn't be solved in twenty four

1133
00:56:45,960 --> 00:56:50,000
Speaker 3: hours right before before he took office. Zelenski here, he

1134
00:56:50,040 --> 00:56:55,000
Speaker 3: won't even say that he's going to accept Russian occupation

1135
00:56:55,120 --> 00:56:58,160
Speaker 3: of Crimea, which has been the status quo for eleven

1136
00:56:58,239 --> 00:57:03,600
Speaker 3: years now. Russia also is not necessarily accepting a ceasefire.

1137
00:57:04,000 --> 00:57:07,080
Speaker 3: In fact, just this morning, let's put this please up

1138
00:57:07,080 --> 00:57:09,840
Speaker 3: on the screen, the Trump truth quote, I am not

1139
00:57:09,960 --> 00:57:14,040
Speaker 3: happy with Russian strikes on Kiev. Not necessary, very bad timing,

1140
00:57:14,239 --> 00:57:17,960
Speaker 3: Vladimir stop. Five thousand soldiers a week, are dying. Let's

1141
00:57:18,000 --> 00:57:21,440
Speaker 3: get the peace steel done. In fact, despite all of

1142
00:57:21,440 --> 00:57:25,480
Speaker 3: his peace deeal talk, Russia actually greenlit air strikes on

1143
00:57:25,560 --> 00:57:29,440
Speaker 3: the capitol in Ukraine for the first time apparently in

1144
00:57:29,480 --> 00:57:32,160
Speaker 3: many months. I mean, what that does tell us is

1145
00:57:32,200 --> 00:57:36,040
Speaker 3: that the Russians both are not necessarily accepting the credibility

1146
00:57:36,280 --> 00:57:38,840
Speaker 3: of this so called like US peace steal come forward.

1147
00:57:38,960 --> 00:57:42,520
Speaker 3: The Ukrainians as well, seem, in my opinion, very naively

1148
00:57:42,640 --> 00:57:45,400
Speaker 3: to believe that the Europeans will be able to prop

1149
00:57:45,440 --> 00:57:47,120
Speaker 3: them up for a continuing war.

1150
00:57:47,160 --> 00:57:48,320
Speaker 1: It's just not reality.

1151
00:57:48,360 --> 00:57:50,920
Speaker 3: I mean, over sixty or seventy percent of their military

1152
00:57:50,960 --> 00:57:54,040
Speaker 3: aid comes directly from the United States. European aid is

1153
00:57:54,120 --> 00:57:57,400
Speaker 3: like humanitarian and economic, that's nothing whenever it comes to

1154
00:57:57,720 --> 00:58:00,760
Speaker 3: actual guns and to weapons. So the two tides actually

1155
00:58:00,800 --> 00:58:04,160
Speaker 3: seem more irreconcilable than ever. And you know, one of

1156
00:58:04,240 --> 00:58:06,280
Speaker 3: the things that I've really been thinking about, Crystal is

1157
00:58:06,280 --> 00:58:09,360
Speaker 3: that because this is such a titanic foreign policy effort

1158
00:58:09,400 --> 00:58:12,760
Speaker 3: in and of itself, the administration cannot put the due

1159
00:58:12,800 --> 00:58:15,640
Speaker 3: amount of attention that it needs to when the Secretary

1160
00:58:15,640 --> 00:58:18,720
Speaker 3: of State and Steve Wikoff are also dealing with of

1161
00:58:18,760 --> 00:58:23,520
Speaker 3: ceasefire you know, potential cease firing, Gaza negotiations there, you know,

1162
00:58:23,800 --> 00:58:28,360
Speaker 3: negotiating ninety odd trade deals across the world. And so

1163
00:58:28,600 --> 00:58:31,800
Speaker 3: with their lack of attention everywhere, it creates a vacuum

1164
00:58:32,080 --> 00:58:35,760
Speaker 3: through which there's not enough seriousness. There's also not enough attention,

1165
00:58:35,920 --> 00:58:39,240
Speaker 3: i would say, from US policymakers around this, and in

1166
00:58:39,280 --> 00:58:41,080
Speaker 3: the absence of that, you're actually going to have the

1167
00:58:41,120 --> 00:58:44,200
Speaker 3: worst of all worlds, which is an intransigent Ukraine and

1168
00:58:44,240 --> 00:58:48,400
Speaker 3: an intransigent Russia, which would actually mean more conflict and

1169
00:58:48,440 --> 00:58:51,320
Speaker 3: would potentially drive us even further into the brink. If

1170
00:58:51,360 --> 00:58:54,040
Speaker 3: the Russians feel that they can get away with something,

1171
00:58:54,080 --> 00:58:57,600
Speaker 3: you know, potentially really crazy with Trump's attention elsewhere, same

1172
00:58:57,640 --> 00:58:59,920
Speaker 3: with the Ukrainians, they may say, screw it, this is

1173
00:59:00,160 --> 00:59:02,440
Speaker 3: our very last effort. You know here right now, we're

1174
00:59:02,480 --> 00:59:05,040
Speaker 3: going to go all in and next who knows, you

1175
00:59:05,040 --> 00:59:07,040
Speaker 3: know what kind of situation that would.

1176
00:59:06,800 --> 00:59:07,280
Speaker 1: Put us in.

1177
00:59:07,360 --> 00:59:10,440
Speaker 3: So the chaos and the uncertainty within this even though look,

1178
00:59:10,440 --> 00:59:12,320
Speaker 3: I think people who watch the show, no, I think

1179
00:59:12,360 --> 00:59:16,000
Speaker 3: this piece deal is eminently reasonable for the Ukrainians because

1180
00:59:16,000 --> 00:59:18,440
Speaker 3: they don't have another choice. The other choice is to

1181
00:59:18,480 --> 00:59:20,920
Speaker 3: continue to fight and to die, which they literally cannot

1182
00:59:20,960 --> 00:59:22,640
Speaker 3: do without US supporter weapons.

1183
00:59:22,680 --> 00:59:24,240
Speaker 1: It's not good for us. I don't think it's particularly

1184
00:59:24,240 --> 00:59:24,720
Speaker 1: good for them.

1185
00:59:24,920 --> 00:59:27,439
Speaker 3: But the problem for US is it seems that we're

1186
00:59:27,480 --> 00:59:30,320
Speaker 3: not actually putting the amount of hard work and detail

1187
00:59:30,600 --> 00:59:33,320
Speaker 3: to be able to enforce or bring about something like this,

1188
00:59:33,440 --> 00:59:36,800
Speaker 3: and there's a massive vacuum of uncertainty, and within that

1189
00:59:36,840 --> 00:59:38,919
Speaker 3: there's actually a lot of danger that we can see

1190
00:59:39,000 --> 00:59:39,640
Speaker 3: right now.

1191
00:59:39,960 --> 00:59:40,840
Speaker 4: No doubt about it.

1192
00:59:40,880 --> 00:59:44,320
Speaker 2: And we all know, we've all seen the way that

1193
00:59:44,360 --> 00:59:47,520
Speaker 2: these conflicts can just sort of be put on the

1194
00:59:47,560 --> 00:59:51,439
Speaker 2: back burner and drag on in definitely, and I think

1195
00:59:51,440 --> 00:59:54,200
Speaker 2: we're really in danger of that right now, because increasingly

1196
00:59:54,240 --> 00:59:58,360
Speaker 2: that'll be the easiest option, and certainly for the weapons makers,

1197
00:59:58,520 --> 01:00:01,520
Speaker 2: that's the most profitable option. So there are plenty of

1198
01:00:01,560 --> 01:00:04,400
Speaker 2: interests that would be happy to see, you know, no

1199
01:00:04,560 --> 01:00:07,400
Speaker 2: peace deal come together and just sort of like continue

1200
01:00:07,440 --> 01:00:11,240
Speaker 2: the status quo in perpetuity. And you know, there's there's

1201
01:00:11,280 --> 01:00:15,160
Speaker 2: political risks here for Trump as well, because while him

1202
01:00:15,600 --> 01:00:18,880
Speaker 2: attempting to pull together a peace deal is very popular,

1203
01:00:19,360 --> 01:00:22,479
Speaker 2: the idea of pushing Ukraine, whether we want to admit

1204
01:00:22,520 --> 01:00:24,680
Speaker 2: it or not, the idea of pushing Ukraine to give

1205
01:00:24,760 --> 01:00:28,680
Speaker 2: up territory is very unpopular. So winding down these wars

1206
01:00:29,160 --> 01:00:32,000
Speaker 2: is always a very difficult political position, something that I

1207
01:00:32,040 --> 01:00:35,040
Speaker 2: think Trump himself has demonstrated some understanding of, and so

1208
01:00:35,120 --> 01:00:37,280
Speaker 2: that cuts against really pushing for a peace deal here

1209
01:00:37,320 --> 01:00:37,760
Speaker 2: as well.

1210
01:00:38,080 --> 01:00:38,280
Speaker 1: You know.

1211
01:00:38,320 --> 01:00:41,560
Speaker 2: The thing that is really just shows how far apart

1212
01:00:42,000 --> 01:00:45,800
Speaker 2: the two parties are is the resistance from Zelenski and

1213
01:00:45,920 --> 01:00:50,640
Speaker 2: Ukraine to even consider the acknowledgment of Crimea at this point.

1214
01:00:50,680 --> 01:00:53,880
Speaker 2: I mean, Russia had taken over Crimea even before this

1215
01:00:53,960 --> 01:00:57,680
Speaker 2: current war. And so if you aren't even willing to

1216
01:00:58,000 --> 01:01:00,360
Speaker 2: consider that or put that on the table, like what

1217
01:01:00,400 --> 01:01:02,720
Speaker 2: are you going to do about Dunboss, let alone the

1218
01:01:02,800 --> 01:01:06,520
Speaker 2: other Russian conditions which really may be above and beyond

1219
01:01:06,520 --> 01:01:09,720
Speaker 2: what the Ukrainians would be willing to accept, things like

1220
01:01:09,840 --> 01:01:11,880
Speaker 2: you know, we're not going to allow any sort of

1221
01:01:12,160 --> 01:01:15,320
Speaker 2: peacekeeping force within the country, whether it's NATO or whether

1222
01:01:15,360 --> 01:01:17,480
Speaker 2: it's the EU or anyone else. We're not going to

1223
01:01:17,520 --> 01:01:20,760
Speaker 2: accept that. Certainly, NATO membership has to be off the table.

1224
01:01:20,840 --> 01:01:23,240
Speaker 2: I mean think that's just like an absolute given at

1225
01:01:23,240 --> 01:01:27,080
Speaker 2: this point. But it doesn't seem like either party is

1226
01:01:27,160 --> 01:01:30,880
Speaker 2: really interested in these sort of significant concessions that would

1227
01:01:30,920 --> 01:01:34,320
Speaker 2: need to be made, and Russia striking Kiev, I mean

1228
01:01:34,360 --> 01:01:37,160
Speaker 2: that is that sense as big of a signal as

1229
01:01:37,200 --> 01:01:40,320
Speaker 2: anything else of like, listen, we can keep going. We

1230
01:01:40,560 --> 01:01:43,480
Speaker 2: you know, we're in have the upper hand here, and

1231
01:01:43,520 --> 01:01:46,720
Speaker 2: we don't particularly feel the need to bend to any

1232
01:01:46,760 --> 01:01:49,959
Speaker 2: of these terms or get anything less than what would

1233
01:01:49,960 --> 01:01:51,040
Speaker 2: be ideal.

1234
01:01:50,640 --> 01:01:53,120
Speaker 3: In our view, right, And then that's the difficulty of

1235
01:01:53,160 --> 01:01:56,160
Speaker 3: this that you also pointed to Trump by negatively polarizing

1236
01:01:56,240 --> 01:01:59,480
Speaker 3: himself on everything, has probably made the Democrats, who probably

1237
01:01:59,480 --> 01:02:03,000
Speaker 3: just learned about Ukraine after their Oval Office meeting, more

1238
01:02:03,080 --> 01:02:06,240
Speaker 3: dug in than ever, which you're exactly right. I mean, look,

1239
01:02:06,280 --> 01:02:09,360
Speaker 3: America has this extremely naive belief that we can just

1240
01:02:09,400 --> 01:02:11,960
Speaker 3: be the great policeman of the world and we can

1241
01:02:12,000 --> 01:02:14,960
Speaker 3: just prevent all of this territorial acquisition in Ukraine, a

1242
01:02:14,960 --> 01:02:17,600
Speaker 3: country which we have no treaty obligation to, which doesn't

1243
01:02:17,600 --> 01:02:20,480
Speaker 3: matter to us literally at all, not even a democracy.

1244
01:02:20,720 --> 01:02:23,080
Speaker 3: I've heard, you know, everyone's heard my spiel. Now at

1245
01:02:23,080 --> 01:02:25,200
Speaker 3: this point it doesn't matter. The truth is is that

1246
01:02:25,240 --> 01:02:28,160
Speaker 3: a peace deal would not likely be popular because again,

1247
01:02:28,240 --> 01:02:29,920
Speaker 3: you have a lot of boomers who still have some

1248
01:02:30,000 --> 01:02:32,800
Speaker 3: Cold War style mentality where they're like, oh, that's just

1249
01:02:32,840 --> 01:02:36,040
Speaker 3: completely unacceptable. Why they have such an emotional attachment to

1250
01:02:36,080 --> 01:02:39,240
Speaker 3: this conflict I will never understand. But the point is

1251
01:02:39,240 --> 01:02:41,280
Speaker 3: is that what we are trying to do, it was

1252
01:02:41,360 --> 01:02:45,560
Speaker 3: already on shaky ish ground. Now obviously Americans had mostly

1253
01:02:45,560 --> 01:02:48,600
Speaker 3: come around to military you know, stopping military aid to Ukraine,

1254
01:02:48,920 --> 01:02:50,720
Speaker 3: or we're roughly in a place where they thought we

1255
01:02:50,720 --> 01:02:53,000
Speaker 3: had given too much It's a different thing though to

1256
01:02:53,040 --> 01:02:56,080
Speaker 3: actually see actual de facto Russian occupation, and you have

1257
01:02:56,200 --> 01:02:58,800
Speaker 3: to be very sensitive in the way that you handle that.

1258
01:02:58,840 --> 01:03:01,400
Speaker 3: And right now we don't really see. The other thing

1259
01:03:01,400 --> 01:03:03,760
Speaker 3: that the administration has said is oh, we're just going

1260
01:03:03,840 --> 01:03:05,480
Speaker 3: to walk away from this, and it's like, well, what

1261
01:03:05,520 --> 01:03:08,040
Speaker 3: does that mean, because if you were going to walk

1262
01:03:08,080 --> 01:03:11,200
Speaker 3: away from these quote peace deal, that would actually be

1263
01:03:11,360 --> 01:03:15,400
Speaker 3: good for Ukraine in fact, because for them already right

1264
01:03:15,440 --> 01:03:16,439
Speaker 3: now the weapons.

1265
01:03:16,080 --> 01:03:16,920
Speaker 1: Continue to flow.

1266
01:03:17,160 --> 01:03:19,440
Speaker 3: When we quote walk away, what we would really be

1267
01:03:19,520 --> 01:03:22,360
Speaker 3: walking away from is diplomatic negotiation and pushing for the

1268
01:03:22,400 --> 01:03:24,640
Speaker 3: settlement with Russia. If we just walk away and the

1269
01:03:24,640 --> 01:03:27,920
Speaker 3: status quo maintains and Ukraine continues to get the weapons

1270
01:03:27,920 --> 01:03:30,480
Speaker 3: shipments every single month, and the battle lines continue to

1271
01:03:30,480 --> 01:03:33,240
Speaker 3: go and it's just a protracted and a long conflict.

1272
01:03:33,440 --> 01:03:36,120
Speaker 3: And then saying for the Russians, if we walk away,

1273
01:03:36,320 --> 01:03:37,800
Speaker 3: they also get to continue.

1274
01:03:37,880 --> 01:03:39,800
Speaker 1: They're slow march forward.

1275
01:03:40,040 --> 01:03:43,560
Speaker 3: So I don't yet see a true incentive for negotiation

1276
01:03:43,920 --> 01:03:47,560
Speaker 3: that's been put on either side. I mean, look again,

1277
01:03:47,640 --> 01:03:50,200
Speaker 3: let's underscore the Ukrainians are delusional if they can't even

1278
01:03:50,240 --> 01:03:54,560
Speaker 3: accept you know, crimea Russian occupation of crimea for at

1279
01:03:54,600 --> 01:03:57,640
Speaker 3: a de facto level, not even an official level. What

1280
01:03:57,680 --> 01:03:59,680
Speaker 3: the hell else are we even doing here after over

1281
01:03:59,680 --> 01:04:02,720
Speaker 3: a million people have been killed. But if that's really

1282
01:04:02,760 --> 01:04:07,560
Speaker 3: where they are, you know, democratically and both democratically in

1283
01:04:07,680 --> 01:04:10,880
Speaker 3: terms of popularity and at the leadership will level with Zelenski,

1284
01:04:11,240 --> 01:04:12,640
Speaker 3: then you know, I don't even know what to say

1285
01:04:12,640 --> 01:04:14,480
Speaker 3: to them at this point. Like if they truly want

1286
01:04:14,480 --> 01:04:16,320
Speaker 3: to fight it out and believe it should be like

1287
01:04:16,360 --> 01:04:19,320
Speaker 3: a war of annihilation, then that maybe that's a choice

1288
01:04:19,320 --> 01:04:22,600
Speaker 3: that they want to have. That's not something that I

1289
01:04:22,640 --> 01:04:25,400
Speaker 3: think we should accept and or push for. But you know,

1290
01:04:25,440 --> 01:04:28,320
Speaker 3: that's where on the administration side, I just don't see

1291
01:04:28,320 --> 01:04:32,240
Speaker 3: the level of attention and detail that's actually happening here

1292
01:04:32,560 --> 01:04:35,880
Speaker 3: that could bring any sort of rap to this conflict.

1293
01:04:36,120 --> 01:04:41,440
Speaker 3: Considering how much other BS that all top level negotiators

1294
01:04:41,640 --> 01:04:43,640
Speaker 3: are currently dealing with. They have to deal with Japan,

1295
01:04:43,920 --> 01:04:47,400
Speaker 3: with China, with you know, with Israel, with the now

1296
01:04:47,400 --> 01:04:51,440
Speaker 3: with Russia, it's like, you can't it's impossible, honestly be

1297
01:04:51,520 --> 01:04:54,120
Speaker 3: able to do this with the level of care and

1298
01:04:54,160 --> 01:04:56,840
Speaker 3: detail that you need. And that's what I'm worried about,

1299
01:04:56,920 --> 01:04:59,800
Speaker 3: is the vacuum because within that vacuum and the uncertainty.

1300
01:05:00,080 --> 01:05:01,160
Speaker 1: Just think it'll be a disaster.

1301
01:05:01,880 --> 01:05:04,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, No, that's a really I think excellent point that

1302
01:05:04,880 --> 01:05:08,920
Speaker 2: I hadn't really thought through. Is because they've basically, you know,

1303
01:05:09,040 --> 01:05:13,160
Speaker 2: gone to war with the entire world and started all

1304
01:05:13,200 --> 01:05:16,400
Speaker 2: sorts of conflagrations and are involved in all sorts of

1305
01:05:16,600 --> 01:05:21,080
Speaker 2: complex negotiations, including supposedly negotiating trade deals with like ninety

1306
01:05:21,080 --> 01:05:25,280
Speaker 2: countries around the world. Look, you just have finite resources,

1307
01:05:25,760 --> 01:05:29,880
Speaker 2: especially finite resources in terms of the type of top

1308
01:05:30,000 --> 01:05:34,400
Speaker 2: level talent you would need to resolve this situation. Because

1309
01:05:34,720 --> 01:05:38,760
Speaker 2: Trump's bluster about I'll solve it within twenty four hours notwithstanding,

1310
01:05:38,800 --> 01:05:41,240
Speaker 2: like we always knew that was preposterous, because the fact

1311
01:05:41,280 --> 01:05:43,560
Speaker 2: of the matter is it's a very difficult situation to

1312
01:05:43,640 --> 01:05:46,440
Speaker 2: untangle at this point. There are no good or ideal

1313
01:05:46,480 --> 01:05:49,080
Speaker 2: answers at this point. And you know that was that's

1314
01:05:49,120 --> 01:05:51,840
Speaker 2: always been the horror and the tragedy of the Biden

1315
01:05:51,880 --> 01:05:55,600
Speaker 2: administration's approach and their desire to block piece deal, you know,

1316
01:05:55,640 --> 01:05:58,120
Speaker 2: at the beginning. But we are where we are at

1317
01:05:58,120 --> 01:06:01,920
Speaker 2: this point, and you know, resolving this will be an

1318
01:06:01,960 --> 01:06:06,919
Speaker 2: incredibly difficult feat They Trump rarely you know, he now

1319
01:06:06,960 --> 01:06:09,640
Speaker 2: has recently started talking about Ukraine War, but often there

1320
01:06:09,680 --> 01:06:12,560
Speaker 2: were long stretches where he wasn't even talking about it.

1321
01:06:12,560 --> 01:06:15,040
Speaker 2: Doesn't seem particularly focused on it, you know, the trade

1322
01:06:15,040 --> 01:06:18,880
Speaker 2: deal seems to be much more of his particular obsession,

1323
01:06:19,360 --> 01:06:22,760
Speaker 2: and so it's hard to see how we get more

1324
01:06:22,840 --> 01:06:25,680
Speaker 2: than just to continue to muddle through and maintain the

1325
01:06:25,720 --> 01:06:27,040
Speaker 2: status quo in the near future.

1326
01:06:27,120 --> 01:06:29,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would say that the most likely scenario when

1327
01:06:29,440 --> 01:06:32,200
Speaker 3: your lack of attention is there is just continued weapons

1328
01:06:32,240 --> 01:06:35,360
Speaker 3: to Ukraine and continued Russia. Right, that is the that's

1329
01:06:35,480 --> 01:06:38,720
Speaker 3: actually easiest for everybody. The Ukrainians get to maintain their

1330
01:06:38,760 --> 01:06:41,920
Speaker 3: facade of fighting. They're just going to continue slowly dying

1331
01:06:41,920 --> 01:06:43,040
Speaker 3: and bleeding their country.

1332
01:06:43,240 --> 01:06:44,000
Speaker 1: We and our.

1333
01:06:43,880 --> 01:06:48,040
Speaker 3: Women's weapons manufactures. Oh it's nothing, you know, and not

1334
01:06:48,280 --> 01:06:51,480
Speaker 3: by the way, where's ewon, where's DOJE on the Ukraine

1335
01:06:51,840 --> 01:06:54,040
Speaker 3: War and everything that we continue to fund there? And

1336
01:06:54,080 --> 01:06:56,800
Speaker 3: then for the Russia, they don't care at all, you know,

1337
01:06:57,040 --> 01:06:59,680
Speaker 3: you know, this is the backbone of their economy. Their

1338
01:06:59,800 --> 01:07:03,120
Speaker 3: entire population basically at this point supports the war. Or

1339
01:07:03,200 --> 01:07:05,160
Speaker 3: you know, the disson in factions and all that people

1340
01:07:05,160 --> 01:07:08,600
Speaker 3: had such great hopes for hasn't materialized. Putin is stronger

1341
01:07:08,600 --> 01:07:10,840
Speaker 3: than ever. If anything, you know, a lack of negotiation,

1342
01:07:10,920 --> 01:07:13,640
Speaker 3: it works to his benefit. He can just keep rolling forward.

1343
01:07:13,680 --> 01:07:15,720
Speaker 3: They push the Ukrainians out of Russia after they did

1344
01:07:15,800 --> 01:07:19,640
Speaker 3: their little invasion, they've actually seized even more territory. I mean,

1345
01:07:19,680 --> 01:07:22,800
Speaker 3: if you see, you know, broad collapse generally of what

1346
01:07:23,200 --> 01:07:26,120
Speaker 3: of what at least you know, any Ukrainian offensive strength,

1347
01:07:26,320 --> 01:07:29,000
Speaker 3: and year after year it's actually probably to the Russians

1348
01:07:29,040 --> 01:07:32,200
Speaker 3: advantage to sign sign no peace deal.

1349
01:07:32,320 --> 01:07:34,720
Speaker 1: They wouldn't you know, they wouldn't love to keep doing that.

1350
01:07:34,840 --> 01:07:37,600
Speaker 3: But at the same time, you know, it's not I

1351
01:07:37,680 --> 01:07:41,120
Speaker 3: just don't see again the proper conditions and this so

1352
01:07:41,280 --> 01:07:52,760
Speaker 3: called walk away, I just don't think that it's gonna work.