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Speaker 2: Some very interesting comments from anthropics Dario Amande, who I

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Speaker 2: will remind you they're supposed to be like the ethical,

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Speaker 2: safety minded AI company. He was asked about whether or

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Speaker 2: not Claude, their product, played a role in the murder

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Speaker 2: of a lot of Iranian schoolgirls in monob Let's go

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Speaker 2: ahead and take a listen to his response.

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Speaker 4: We don't know exactly how you know these models were used,

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Speaker 4: you know obviously, like you know these things that that

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Speaker 4: you know, mistakes that happen in warfare are really really terrible,

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Speaker 4: Like this is a really terrible thing to happen. We

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Speaker 4: were willing to risk the future of our company to

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Speaker 4: like limit how you know these models are used. And

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Speaker 4: you know, what you're talking about is a use case

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Speaker 4: that doesn't even violate our red lines. We're worried that

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Speaker 4: there will be one hundred times as much you know,

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Speaker 4: with with use cases that that that do violate our

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Speaker 4: red lines.

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Speaker 2: So he says, there, the use case does not even

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Speaker 2: violate our guidelines. The use case here being you know,

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Speaker 2: targeting a little girls' school and murdering over one hundred

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Speaker 2: Iranian school girls. That's the use case he's talking about.

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Speaker 2: And the crazy thing is Sager that you don't want

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Speaker 2: to say like he's supposed to be the most ethical.

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Speaker 5: Like I actually think he is. It just shows you

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Speaker 5: how low the bar is.

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Speaker 2: You know, he's the one they said to the Pentagon, no,

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Speaker 2: we're not going to accept complete autonomous killing with no

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Speaker 2: human involved in the decision making whatsoever. That led to

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Speaker 2: him drawing the ire of Pete Heggsath, Secretary of War Crimes,

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Speaker 2: Pete Heggsath, and the Trump administration overall. I think it

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Speaker 2: is the primary reason why right now fable has been

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Speaker 2: pulled not so much out of concerns over safety, but

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Speaker 2: because he dared politically to cross the Trump regime. So

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Speaker 2: and meanwhile, after he did that, than Sam Altman and

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Speaker 2: open AI immediately runs up, Oh, we'll do it, don't worry,

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Speaker 2: we have no ethics whatsoever. So I actually think it

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Speaker 2: is true that he is the best of the group,

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Speaker 2: and that is really really saying something because listen to

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Speaker 2: how he talks about this too. I mean, the content

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Speaker 2: of it is disturbing enough, but it's also so cold

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Speaker 2: and so divorced from any kind of humanity, Like the

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Speaker 2: normal human reaction is horror at what was done and

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Speaker 2: deep upset over the possibility that's something that you were

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Speaker 2: involved in creating, may have had anything to do with that.

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Speaker 2: Get none of that from him whatsoever. This is the

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Speaker 2: guy that you know, he was at open AI. He

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Speaker 2: was sort of the head of the group that was

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Speaker 2: most concerned about safety. Then he's concerned that open AI

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Speaker 2: isn't taking safety seriously enough. They go out and start anthropic.

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Speaker 2: That's like his you know, his origin story. But it

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Speaker 2: really gives you a window into the psychology of these

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Speaker 2: people who have tremendous power in their hands. And who

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Speaker 2: you know, are already tremendously wealthy. If aanthropic goes public,

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Speaker 2: he is going to be even more wildly wealthy. And

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Speaker 2: if they succeed and into achieving AGI or super intelligence,

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Speaker 2: the amount of power that he's going to have personally

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Speaker 2: or any of these guys is so terrifying.

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Speaker 3: That's why I was like, with the look, I get it.

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Speaker 3: You know, it's not like corrupt reasons. I'm still I'm like, no, Like,

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Speaker 3: we cannot be ruled by these people. You know, if

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Speaker 3: you listen to the whole thing, and I have a

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Speaker 3: little bit of a summary, what he says is that

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Speaker 3: he's like, look, it didn't even violate our use case

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Speaker 3: because a human reviewed it. It's like, well, the whole

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Speaker 3: problem is about how that targets set remained on the

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Speaker 3: day one strike package?

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Speaker 1: Was it AI?

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Speaker 3: As we have laid out, there's a very convincing case

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Speaker 3: for it because of the name and the rename. It's

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Speaker 3: exactly the type of thing anybody casually playing around with AI.

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Speaker 3: What was it?

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Speaker 1: The girls' school used to be part of.

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Speaker 3: A base, it had been abandoned, and then there was

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Speaker 3: also that strike on the park, if we recall, which

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Speaker 3: also had been labeled in such a way that an.

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Speaker 5: It was called police park.

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Speaker 2: It's really in particular, we're targeting a lot of civilian

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Speaker 2: police to try to create social chaos and disorder within Iran.

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Speaker 2: In both they end up bombing a park called police Park.

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Speaker 3: You could easily see how at Chatch GPT or claud As,

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Speaker 3: maybe any of you, if you've played around with it,

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Speaker 3: how they would be like, yeah, find all places used

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Speaker 3: by police and Iran target set pops up, find all

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Speaker 3: IRGC bases that are known. How would it know necessarily

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Speaker 3: without a human actually checking. They didn't check in those

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Speaker 3: parts of the strike package. So you cannot trust these people,

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Speaker 3: you know, you really should also really pay close attention

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Speaker 3: to their defense of the technology. Let me read you

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Speaker 3: this direct quote from the same interview. A'ma day defended

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Speaker 3: the use of AI military conflict during his interviews. We

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Speaker 3: don't want a world where China and Russia can build,

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Speaker 3: can analyze all their intelligence with AI, can use AI

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Speaker 3: for attacking Taiwan and Ukraine, and we can't defend them

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Speaker 3: all right, So in his universe, Claude is the only

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Speaker 3: American alternative. Now recall in China, yes, they have private companies.

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Speaker 3: There's no such thing. The private companies work in tandem

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Speaker 3: directly with the government. I don't even care about that

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Speaker 3: at this point, because clearly it's a superior model. Well, here,

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Speaker 3: what they're saying is that our unfettered, unrestricted AI is

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Speaker 3: the only potential opportunity to combat what the Chinese and

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Speaker 3: oh the spooky Russians are doing in Ukraine. That's the

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Speaker 3: they're trying to prop themselves up as these national champions.

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Speaker 3: And it's deeply cynical because what it really means is

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Speaker 3: that our national chamampions have to be completely unrestricted and

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Speaker 3: have to be backed stopped by the US government, and

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Speaker 3: that we cannot tell them what to do, we will acquiesce.

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Speaker 1: To them entirely.

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Speaker 3: Both are terrifying possibilities, yes, right, And that because at

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Speaker 3: least in China, you know, you don't have this separate

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Speaker 3: oligarchy of total government control.

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Speaker 1: Total government control has.

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Speaker 3: Its down science, but here you have half government control

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Speaker 3: and then half private control over everything. It's actually the

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Speaker 3: worst of both worlds. You have oligarchic and government authoritarianism

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Speaker 3: fused together basically to create some sort of like supra

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Speaker 3: super rich state, which is ultimately I think what they want,

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Speaker 3: you know, for everybody.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the butt China argument that Dario is fully bought in.

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Speaker 2: All on, I'm reading this book, what is it called

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Speaker 2: Empire of Ai?

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Speaker 5: Excellent?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, And so I'm going through this portion right now.

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Speaker 2: And when you have this mentality of oh, but if

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Speaker 2: we don't do it, then the scary Chinese are going

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Speaker 2: to do it, guess what that leads to? All your

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Speaker 2: safety concerns ultimately are going to take a back seat

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Speaker 2: to that or your moral ethical concerns. As in the

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Speaker 2: case of letting the Department of War Crimes use your

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Speaker 2: technology in such a way that results in little girls

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Speaker 2: getting mass murdered. You're going to say, oh, but if

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Speaker 2: we don't do it, then China is going to do it.

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Speaker 2: This is exactly how David Sax was able to spike

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Speaker 2: the potential executive order that was reportedly being drafted that

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Speaker 2: Trump was contemplating of requiring some sort of government process

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Speaker 2: to make sure these models are safe before they're turned

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Speaker 2: over to the public. And if you, hell, but if

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Speaker 2: we do that, then on Chine is going to be

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Speaker 2: that we can't have that. That's how you end off

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Speaker 2: end up with this complete no regulation off to the

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Speaker 2: race's approach that we have. And you know, just to

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Speaker 2: go back to what you were saying about, you know,

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Speaker 2: the targeting and how you can imagine AI. Okay, you're

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Speaker 2: looking for anything to do with police, sears, police park

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Speaker 2: and also the interaction between AI and humans and how

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Speaker 2: it makes the humans lazier. I think this is very

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Speaker 2: common with tech chnological advances, right. I mean you can

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Speaker 2: think about it like Google Maps. Right, We've all brains

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Speaker 2: have all gotten a lot lazier and a lot less

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Speaker 2: adept at being able to actually find our way around

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Speaker 2: places and know how to get you know, how to

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Speaker 2: get places on our own, but that has only minor consequences.

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Speaker 2: You could think about it with the Tesla self driving, right,

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Speaker 2: It's good most of the time. The expectation is supposed

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Speaker 2: to be that human is paying attention and not just

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Speaker 2: default turning it all over to the computer. Because we've

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Speaker 2: had hundreds of accidents, some of them fatal from exactly

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Speaker 2: that result where the auto driving system is not so

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Speaker 2: good that it can deal with these edge cases. But

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Speaker 2: the human has already lazily turned over all of their

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Speaker 2: faculties to the self driving and so you could see

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Speaker 2: very easily how this would happen with military targeting as well.

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Speaker 2: If it was a human that was having to go

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Speaker 2: through from scratch and develop the strike package and analyze

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Speaker 2: all of these targets, they wouldn't just be lazily turning

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Speaker 2: over their brain power to the tech.

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Speaker 5: But oftentimes what happens with.

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Speaker 2: The tech is you just assume that, oh, it's you know,

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Speaker 2: it's pretty good, and it is probably pretty good most

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Speaker 2: of the time, but there are going to be instances

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Speaker 2: where it fails. And those instances, when you're talking about war,

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Speaker 2: are literally life or death.

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Speaker 5: You know.

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Speaker 2: The other thing that has been very noteworthy that we

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Speaker 2: have been tracking here is the public backlash to this technology.

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Speaker 2: And one thing that's truly unique we can put C

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Speaker 2: two up on the screen is that that backlash has

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Speaker 2: really been centered among young people. And the reason I

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Speaker 2: say that's unique is because usually it's young people who

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Speaker 2: are the most enthusiastic about new technological developments, and it's

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Speaker 2: usually older people who are out setting their ways. Get

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Speaker 2: off my lawn. I don't want to change how I'm

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Speaker 2: doing things. I like the status quo. Here it's a

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Speaker 2: complete reversal where it's young people who have the gravest concerns.

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Speaker 2: Understandably because I think of a couple of reasons.

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Speaker 5: Put C two up. This is a Stanford walk out.

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Speaker 2: Of the CEO of Google was speaking at their commencements

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Speaker 2: ceremony Sundar PRACAI and there was a significant walk out here.

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Speaker 5: Now this wasn't just about AI.

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Speaker 2: This was about Google's contracts with the IDF, and you

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Speaker 2: know the moral and ethical concerns, but I think the

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Speaker 2: two are very much tied in given how much we

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Speaker 2: understand that AI was important and was really tested out.

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Speaker 2: They use Gaza as like a testing ground for the

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Speaker 2: integration of AI tech on the battlefield. So we've also

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Speaker 2: seen you know, any AI commencement set speakers that even

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Speaker 2: mention AI at all getting booed and you know, really

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Speaker 2: having a rough time of it with these students. And

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Speaker 2: you can understand saga why because they're the ones who

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Speaker 2: are really on the frontline of the job consequences here,

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Speaker 2: and young people are also have been the most vocal

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Speaker 2: and the most upset about the ethical implications and the

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Speaker 2: barbarism that they've seen with this technology as well.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think you know, with a lot of this

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Speaker 3: what people are watching in horror is the sheer like

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Speaker 3: it's about control. It's not just about immorality with what

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Speaker 3: happened in Israel and Gaza, that's definitely part of it.

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Speaker 3: But the reason why with data center, if you talk

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Speaker 3: to the younger person, I mean, you know, I remember

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Speaker 3: talking about this last year. It's you know, what is it?

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Speaker 3: It's June sixteenth, so we're full passed. The class of

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty six has mostly graduated.

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Speaker 1: What do you do? We remember in our AMA somebody

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Speaker 1: asked us, They're like, what career advice would you give?

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Speaker 1: I don't know. I can't tell you.

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Speaker 3: And I didn't even graduate that long ago, so that

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Speaker 3: it's a terrifying possibility. I look at the wage growth,

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Speaker 3: I look at the economy, I look at housing. I mean,

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Speaker 3: how what other than learn how to think for yourself

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Speaker 3: and you know, really try to build up genuinely, like

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Speaker 3: build up your ability to make decisions by reading a

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Speaker 3: lot of books. I do not know what possible actual

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Speaker 3: career advice I could give serious and I think that's

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Speaker 3: really scary for a lot of people with AI. And

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Speaker 3: this is probably the first generation because the class of

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty six chat EPT came out in twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 3: They went through full on college with chat Sheep two

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Speaker 3: their entire college experience. So a lot of them probably

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Speaker 3: have never written a real essay. They have never don't

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Speaker 3: even know what it's like to have to solve problems

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Speaker 3: or anything without AI at a collegiate level, and even

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Speaker 3: if they're continuing in their field. So for them, they

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Speaker 3: know the upside and the usefulness of SET technology, but

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Speaker 3: they also know how much it could potentially endanger their

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Speaker 3: future career choices. And then all to see Dario and others,

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Speaker 3: you know, talking about how, oh, it wouldn't even.

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Speaker 1: Violate our use case. So they're out of control. You know.

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Speaker 3: I felt that one of the reasons why a lot

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Speaker 3: of young people despair right now is they really have

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Speaker 3: never been less in control of their own destiny than

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Speaker 3: at any time in modern American history. That's what the

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Speaker 3: dream ultimately was about, is I foresee a path to

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Speaker 3: controlling my future, and right now they don't.

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Speaker 2: That's what AI is ultimately. I think that's right. Let's

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Speaker 2: put see five up on the screen. I have a personal,

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Speaker 2: deep and abiding hatred of these freaking meta AI glasses

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Speaker 2: that you know, people can be wearing them you really

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Speaker 2: can't tell that they could be recording, taking picture you,

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Speaker 2: et cetera. And so Wired, which does some really great reporting,

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Speaker 2: they have uncovered that Meta is partnering with this Pentagon

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Speaker 2: supplier to prototype facial recognition for their glasses.

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Speaker 5: The company is called Rank one.

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Speaker 2: They say the board includes a former CIA Deputy director,

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Speaker 2: former FBI science chief, supplied face recognition and Meta for

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Speaker 2: internal development of its smart glasses app. They go on

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Speaker 2: to say the arrangement is documented in a software license

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Speaker 2: that was obtained by Wired. This would be part of

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Speaker 2: the Meta, ray Ban and Oakley smart glasses. Rank one's

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Speaker 2: face recognition has been bought by the US Marshal Service,

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Speaker 2: which uses it to confirm prisoner's identities without fingerprinting them

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Speaker 2: during transport, by the Naval Criminal Investigative Service, the Navy's

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Speaker 2: Police Force, which purchased.

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Speaker 5: The company's video tool.

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Speaker 2: Rank one developed long range face recognition for US Special

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Speaker 2: Operations Command under a government research contract, saying it software

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Speaker 2: could identify a face from as far as a kilometer away.

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Speaker 2: Police departments across the country use its algorithms to embedded

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Speaker 2: in tools they buy from other vendors. By the way,

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Speaker 2: already the deployment of this tech in a policing and

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Speaker 2: surveillance context has led to issues where people have been

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Speaker 2: wrongfully arrested for crimes they allegedly committed where they were

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Speaker 2: not even in the state where the crime was committed,

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Speaker 2: but you know, they come up on some algorithmically facial

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Speaker 2: recognition technology as though it was them, and then they

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Speaker 2: end up getting arrested and it's literally taken weeks to

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Speaker 2: months to get them out of prison and prove that

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Speaker 2: I had nothing to do with this crime. So, even

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Speaker 2: in policing context, this is already horrifying, but how dystopian

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Speaker 2: that people could be walking around with these frickin things

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Speaker 2: and pulling you up on good you know, facial recognition

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Speaker 2: and pulling you up and knowing everything about you. That

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Speaker 2: is creepy as hell. It is such a violation. I

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Speaker 2: have got to be based.

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Speaker 1: I was like, am I maybe call me a LUDDI

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Speaker 1: ban this shit? Yeah?

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Speaker 3: When I'm absolutely, when i'm maybe i'm paranoid. But when

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Speaker 3: I'm in public, that is literally the first thing that

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Speaker 3: I look for.

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Speaker 1: Because you don't know they're weirdos who are out there.

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Speaker 3: You're in a gym walker room, people are walking around

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Speaker 3: with glasses you don't know for sure, I mean anybody

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Speaker 3: else seen on Instagram, Like the number of undercover videos

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Speaker 3: that people do now, you know, yeah, and some of

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Speaker 3: them are entertaining, but it's like, look, I'll take my

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Speaker 3: entertainment off the table just to make sure that people

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Speaker 3: have like a modicum of privacy. If you're a cashier,

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Speaker 3: you're not safe. If you're in a social situation, you're

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Speaker 3: not said. I mean, God help, any young person wants

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Speaker 3: to go to a bar, you know anymore these days,

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Speaker 3: good luck, seriously, because between phones and the metaglasses, like

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Speaker 3: it's you're constantly being recorded. And also, you know, these

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Speaker 3: people don't even have any scruples about just airing the

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Speaker 3: faces of complete strangers. Like here in the news business,

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Speaker 3: you can't do that. You have to get release forms

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Speaker 3: and all this. They just er it, you know, an

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Speaker 3: err on the side of They just don't care about caution.

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Speaker 3: They'll put people completely on blast. And now to add

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Speaker 3: facial recognition software, which it already exists.

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Speaker 1: You can look up Clearview AI.

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Speaker 3: It's already it's one of the biggest technology companies that

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Speaker 3: came out of Silicon Valley and it works with every police,

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Speaker 3: you know, CIA and all these other intelligence agencies.

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Speaker 1: By the way, if.

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Speaker 3: You're curious for what their founder has gone on to do,

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Speaker 3: he now is going to be owning a stake and

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Speaker 3: only fans. So think about that next time that you

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Speaker 3: are signing up for one of those.

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Speaker 5: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, And a little facial recognition on the camera that

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Speaker 3: anybody else ever seen this? You know, like the green

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Speaker 3: light come on when the camera's on. I don't even

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Speaker 3: have face ID still comes on sometime. What are you recording?

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Speaker 1: What's going on?

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Speaker 5: Heroes?

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Speaker 1: You know?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and there's something I mean, it's bad enough that

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Speaker 2: there's so many public cameras so much just like public surveillance,

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Speaker 2: but it feels different when there's an assumption that okay, whatever,

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Speaker 2: you know, government or business or whatever that's reviewing this footage.

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Speaker 2: At least there's level of like professionalism that you know whatever.

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Speaker 5: That's the expectation. Feels a little less personal right now.

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Speaker 2: If you have an individual person who is creepily taking

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Speaker 2: your photo or videoing you with ound you knowing like

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Speaker 2: that is it is just it is very disturbing.

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Speaker 5: So yeah, I.

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Speaker 2: Hate these things. I think they should be banned. The

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Speaker 2: tie up with the facial recognition company just makes it worse.

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Speaker 2: But I already just hate that they exist right.

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Speaker 3: Well, and what they'd done, if you will see, is

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Speaker 3: meta ray Bands is fully integrated into Instagram, and so

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Speaker 3: when people take videos of them, it actually is even

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Speaker 3: a de facto advertisement for the ray bands. They're like,

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Speaker 3: see how it was shot. It is shot on the

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Speaker 3: ray band, and you know, they have all this bs

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Speaker 3: like oh there's a light on and all this stuff.

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Speaker 3: People put tapes on the lines. It's a whole industry

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Speaker 3: now of all of these undercover people, you know, prank

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Speaker 3: YouTubers and all of this. Like what possible benefit of

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Speaker 3: putting spycams which you can blast out on social media

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Speaker 3: could ever come to society? We should cover this soon.

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Speaker 3: I don't know if you saw it. The UK just

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Speaker 3: banned social media for all children under the age of sixteen.

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Speaker 5: I did see it.

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Speaker 3: I was like, wow, incredible, like just out of he

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Speaker 3: just came out and he's like, we're banning it for

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Speaker 3: everyone under the age of sixteen and predictive. The Silicon

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Speaker 3: Valley people are freaking out about it. They're like, oh, no,

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Speaker 3: this is about government control. I'm like, yeah, exactly, because

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Speaker 3: we don't want to be under your control. At least

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Speaker 3: in the government, you have somewhat of a democratic input

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Speaker 3: as opposed to what what should I become a shareholder

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Speaker 3: of Meta for my measly five hundred dollars and register

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Speaker 3: my you know, my complaints. It's we have no control

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Speaker 3: over these people. And these cameras are everywhere between ring.

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Speaker 3: Have I told you about ring and the police thing?

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Speaker 3: It's nuts, Like, if you have a ring camera, yeah,

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Speaker 3: and a crime is committed, the police can just send

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Speaker 3: you a request for all ten blocks let's say, of

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Speaker 3: a suspect and be like, submit anonymously.

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Speaker 1: All your video.

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Speaker 3: I mean, you're under no matter where you walk around,

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Speaker 3: you are completely under surveillance, you know, by the state,

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Speaker 3: by private court.

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Speaker 2: You know what else they do They feed all of

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Speaker 2: that also into these AI courses need to help with

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Speaker 2: their training data and develop them whatever. Anyway, it's very

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Speaker 2: it's very disturbing. All right, Let's talk a little bit

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Speaker 2: about the the economic fallout of the Iran war that

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Speaker 2: may continue even though a deal is struck. So we

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Speaker 2: have a memo of understanding for a sixty day negotiation period.

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Speaker 2: A lot that could go wrong with regard to this

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Speaker 2: potential deal with the run, which we've covered other places

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Speaker 2: in the show, but we wanted to take a look

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Speaker 2: at the economic fallout and assuming the best case scenario,

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Speaker 2: assuming this all goes swimmingly and the straight of Hormones

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Speaker 2: opens imminently, what is likely to be the continued lag effects.

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Speaker 2: How quickly can we expect oil markets in particular to

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Speaker 2: get back to normal. So New York Times has an

402
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Speaker 2: interesting write up here. They say deal to reopen hormones

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Speaker 2: kicks off a long effort to ease the energy crisis.

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Speaker 2: Because remember, we've had months at this point of things

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Speaker 2: not being normal, and if there's one thing we weren't learned,

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Speaker 2: both from Ukraine and from the COVID shock, it can

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Speaker 2: take a while before the kinks get worked down of

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Speaker 2: the system till things truly were.

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Speaker 5: Very to the way that they were before.

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Speaker 2: There's also some indications they may never completely return to

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Speaker 2: the way that they were before. Let me read you

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Speaker 2: a little bit from this piece. They say the long

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Speaker 2: awaited deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz brought quick

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Speaker 2: relief to the oil market, sending prices to their lowest

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Speaker 2: levels since early March, getting substantial amounts of oil and

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Speaker 2: gas blowing, however, will take much longer. It can take

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Speaker 2: weeks or months even in the best of times, to

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Speaker 2: get oil and gas from wells in the Persian Gulf

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Speaker 2: to buyers in China or Japan.

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Speaker 5: The first big test for.

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Speaker 2: Whether the deal will work is whether it gives shipping

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Speaker 2: companies and of confidence to send their vessels through the strait.

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Speaker 2: If they do, tankers that have been strand in the

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Speaker 2: Persian Gulf will be able to bring much needed fuel

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Speaker 2: to buyers around the world. What comes after that will

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Speaker 2: depend a lot on how long companies think the reopening

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Speaker 2: will last. The US and Iron agreed to a sixty

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Speaker 2: day truce during which they would try to breach a

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Speaker 2: broader agreement on Around's nuclear weapons program and US sanctions

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Speaker 2: against the.

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Speaker 5: Country, so socger.

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Speaker 2: What they point to here is the fact that a

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Speaker 2: lot of the reason that ships have not been trans

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Speaker 2: transitting the straight orform moves is obviously the war led

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Speaker 2: to an inability to transit, and there were mines in

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Speaker 2: the strait, but also even if you wanted to, you

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Speaker 2: were not going to be able to get insurance. You know,

438
00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:18,199
Speaker 2: the shipping companies that own these giant tankers are not

439
00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:21,199
Speaker 2: willing to take that risk, and so now you have

440
00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:24,800
Speaker 2: a situation that continues to be very tenuous. Are they

441
00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:27,120
Speaker 2: going to be able to get insurance in the near term?

442
00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:29,840
Speaker 2: Are they going to wait the sixty days until a

443
00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:33,800
Speaker 2: deal is actually secured before they begin transitting again, So

444
00:21:33,920 --> 00:21:37,840
Speaker 2: it will be a further delay before traffic fully returns

445
00:21:37,880 --> 00:21:40,760
Speaker 2: to normal. You also have a situation where you know,

446
00:21:40,840 --> 00:21:45,440
Speaker 2: everybody's stockpiles have dramatically diminished, so there's very low levels

447
00:21:45,480 --> 00:21:48,400
Speaker 2: in our strategic patrol and reserve as well as countries

448
00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:51,199
Speaker 2: around the country. So there's going to be you know,

449
00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:54,880
Speaker 2: further increased demand as things come back to normal. All

450
00:21:54,920 --> 00:21:56,760
Speaker 2: of this is to say that it may still be

451
00:21:56,840 --> 00:22:00,280
Speaker 2: a while before things truly returned to anything approximate what

452
00:22:00,280 --> 00:22:01,080
Speaker 2: they were before.

453
00:22:00,840 --> 00:22:02,240
Speaker 3: The war, right, And if we look at some of

454
00:22:02,280 --> 00:22:06,440
Speaker 3: the oil markets and others, So for example, Brent crude

455
00:22:06,480 --> 00:22:10,160
Speaker 3: is currently trading around eighty dollars a barrel. I think

456
00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:14,119
Speaker 3: that West Texas somewhere around seventy. We should begin to

457
00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:16,720
Speaker 3: see gas prices come, which is good. You know, we're

458
00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:19,720
Speaker 3: going to see it's still about four dollars a gallon nationally.

459
00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:22,720
Speaker 3: They'll probably normalize around three point fifty or so. But

460
00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:25,000
Speaker 3: that's the problem is three to fifty is still at

461
00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:28,080
Speaker 3: least a dollar higher or so then where things were

462
00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:31,800
Speaker 3: before the war began, and people are going to remember

463
00:22:31,880 --> 00:22:34,400
Speaker 3: that they still had to pay those one hundred days

464
00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:37,960
Speaker 3: of four dollars a gallon gasoline as things continue. The

465
00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:41,920
Speaker 3: important point that they make inside of this story around

466
00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:44,800
Speaker 3: the Strait of Hormuz and the resumption of oil traffic

467
00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:47,760
Speaker 3: is the amount of slack in the system now is

468
00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:51,119
Speaker 3: basically completely gone. For example, let's put D two up

469
00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:53,600
Speaker 3: here on the screen. This is the US Energy Secretary

470
00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:56,359
Speaker 3: who was speaking just a week ago, who said, quote,

471
00:22:56,400 --> 00:22:58,919
Speaker 3: it will take many months to get back to normal

472
00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:02,800
Speaker 3: after this energy crisis. And the specific thing that he

473
00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:07,359
Speaker 3: points to is around the shifting of supply chain. And

474
00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:09,320
Speaker 3: so what we were talking about a lot of time

475
00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:14,240
Speaker 3: during the blockade was it takes like forty something days

476
00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:17,680
Speaker 3: from a tanker to get from Asia to the United

477
00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:20,480
Speaker 3: States and then another forty days I could be wrong

478
00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:22,240
Speaker 3: on the exact number of days, but something like that

479
00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:24,959
Speaker 3: to go back, and so so many different you know,

480
00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:29,960
Speaker 3: supply chains have been redirected from Asia to America or

481
00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:33,600
Speaker 3: from America to Asia that reshifting and coming back to

482
00:23:33,600 --> 00:23:35,919
Speaker 3: the straight or from it takes months. And there's also

483
00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:39,040
Speaker 3: all the excess oil that was in the system has

484
00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:41,959
Speaker 3: gone basically right. And the example of this I think

485
00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:44,800
Speaker 3: we have is about what was it, yeah, D five

486
00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:47,520
Speaker 3: please that we can put up here. You can actually

487
00:23:47,560 --> 00:23:51,240
Speaker 3: see in this chart what we have is the barrels

488
00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:54,399
Speaker 3: of crude in the US Petroleum Reserve are literally at

489
00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:58,200
Speaker 3: their lowest level since the nineteen eighties, so since Ronald

490
00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:01,520
Speaker 3: Reagan was president, the US Petroleum Reserve has never been

491
00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:04,600
Speaker 3: this low. And what the oil executives say is that

492
00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:07,959
Speaker 3: with all these dwindling stockpiles, it basically just means you're

493
00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:11,159
Speaker 3: going to have some level of demand destruction for oil

494
00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:14,880
Speaker 3: facilities and others. As we've described, we still don't even

495
00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:17,879
Speaker 3: know what level they were operating at. You know, Rory

496
00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:20,120
Speaker 3: made a real point of telling us here on the show,

497
00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:23,320
Speaker 3: it's not that simple to go from ten percent to eighty.

498
00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:25,919
Speaker 1: You have all the storage which is backed.

499
00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:28,320
Speaker 3: Up, and if any of those refineries were taken completely

500
00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:30,720
Speaker 3: to zero, that's not I mean, it takes a while,

501
00:24:30,920 --> 00:24:33,320
Speaker 3: you know, for everything to spin back up, and you

502
00:24:33,359 --> 00:24:34,480
Speaker 3: still have all these shifts.

503
00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:36,320
Speaker 1: The UAE left OPEC.

504
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:39,160
Speaker 3: They're going to be pumping as much as they possibly can,

505
00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:41,640
Speaker 3: Saudi Arabia, you know, and others. It could be even

506
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:44,359
Speaker 3: a price war, which could cause problems. So there's just

507
00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:46,280
Speaker 3: going to be chaos, I think in the markets for

508
00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:48,560
Speaker 3: you probably at least a year or so to come.

509
00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:51,479
Speaker 2: So they say in this piece too, that you know,

510
00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:55,560
Speaker 2: a lot of oil and natural gas producers they you know,

511
00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:59,240
Speaker 2: some of them shut their wells, some of the oil fields.

512
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:02,960
Speaker 2: There was signific damage that occurred during the war as well,

513
00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:05,560
Speaker 2: So you know, are you going to do the difficult

514
00:25:05,560 --> 00:25:08,600
Speaker 2: work of bringing everything back online, of repairing everything when

515
00:25:08,640 --> 00:25:11,439
Speaker 2: things continued to be uncertain at least for the sixty

516
00:25:11,520 --> 00:25:14,680
Speaker 2: day period. According to this New York Times report, Gulf

517
00:25:14,720 --> 00:25:17,320
Speaker 2: country slash up to fifteen million barrels a day of

518
00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:22,440
Speaker 2: oil production this spring. That's nearly fifteen percent of global supply.

519
00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:26,800
Speaker 2: So you have to judge, okay, is it worth going

520
00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:29,280
Speaker 2: back to the production levels we had, which is not

521
00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:31,080
Speaker 2: a simple and straightforward thing, or are we going to

522
00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:33,440
Speaker 2: wait a little bit longer and see if this thing

523
00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:36,000
Speaker 2: really comes to fruition and see how this all completely

524
00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:38,760
Speaker 2: shakes out. You know, with regard to traffic, in the

525
00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:41,679
Speaker 2: Strait of Hormuz. We can go ahead and put D

526
00:25:41,880 --> 00:25:45,280
Speaker 2: four up on the screen here as well, because you

527
00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:48,520
Speaker 2: can see that we are still a long way from

528
00:25:48,520 --> 00:25:54,000
Speaker 2: getting back to the normal level of traffic within the strait.

529
00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:57,200
Speaker 2: This tweet says, claims about Hormos reopening are exactly why

530
00:25:57,200 --> 00:25:59,200
Speaker 2: we built this. As ships start moving through the strait

531
00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:01,240
Speaker 2: with AIS and Spot and so on, you'll see it

532
00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:05,520
Speaker 2: in the index, updated every thirty minutes. So this will

533
00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:08,400
Speaker 2: certainly be something to pay attention to as we see

534
00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:13,720
Speaker 2: how companies read the political dynamics and how certain they

535
00:26:13,760 --> 00:26:15,879
Speaker 2: are that this deal is going to come through and

536
00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:18,359
Speaker 2: it's going to ultimately be solid. The other thing I

537
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:21,400
Speaker 2: was looking at this morning saga is you know, some

538
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:23,720
Speaker 2: aspects of the energy market are likely not to go

539
00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:26,399
Speaker 2: back to normal ever, because I think, just like there

540
00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:30,000
Speaker 2: were a lot of learnings from Ukraine and Russia, there

541
00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:34,320
Speaker 2: was a big realization here certainly in other places as well,

542
00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:38,600
Speaker 2: that as long as you are reliant on global energy markets,

543
00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:41,560
Speaker 2: your whole economy can be held hostage.

544
00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:43,320
Speaker 5: Right, you are truly at risk.

545
00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:45,920
Speaker 2: And so during the course of this war, there was

546
00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:50,480
Speaker 2: a massive increase in demand for Chinese solar panels, and

547
00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:54,080
Speaker 2: for ev cars, that technology has really come of age

548
00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:58,560
Speaker 2: now where it can be a reliable and affordable alternative

549
00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:00,879
Speaker 2: both at sort of the niche and wide level and

550
00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:04,399
Speaker 2: also at the individual consumer level. And so countries that

551
00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:06,960
Speaker 2: have started to shift in that direction are not likely

552
00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:09,960
Speaker 2: to shift back because they don't want to find themselves

553
00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:13,920
Speaker 2: in this situation again. And the technology has advanced even

554
00:27:13,960 --> 00:27:16,800
Speaker 2: in just you know, the several years since the Ukraine

555
00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:20,040
Speaker 2: War began to make it a much more feasible alternative.

556
00:27:20,119 --> 00:27:22,840
Speaker 2: So I guess thank you to Trump for helping to

557
00:27:22,880 --> 00:27:26,760
Speaker 2: speed up the renewable energy transition. We appreciate your servicer.

558
00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:28,160
Speaker 3: Dean bag I think he was from the Washing Post.

559
00:27:28,160 --> 00:27:30,879
Speaker 3: You wrote this very interesting story about how BYD should

560
00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:32,840
Speaker 3: award Trump Salesman of the Year.

561
00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:36,280
Speaker 1: And I was reading the data.

562
00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:40,280
Speaker 3: It's unbelievable the amount of cars that they have been

563
00:27:40,320 --> 00:27:43,360
Speaker 3: able to export and to sell. Actually in the interim

564
00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:46,159
Speaker 3: last six months. They're actually rolling out all kinds of

565
00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:48,880
Speaker 3: new technology, which you know, I've been wanting to cover

566
00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:50,520
Speaker 3: some of this stuff for a while. One of them

567
00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:53,080
Speaker 3: is a flash charger, which can take your car from

568
00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:56,679
Speaker 3: ten to seventy percent in five minutes. I mean on

569
00:27:56,720 --> 00:27:59,680
Speaker 3: a supercharger with the Tesla. I mean you're probably looking.

570
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:02,320
Speaker 3: I did it this weekend for at least fifteen, you know,

571
00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:04,920
Speaker 3: fifteen minutes or so. And that's assuming you know, there's

572
00:28:05,080 --> 00:28:07,480
Speaker 3: some idiot park next to you, even when there's five

573
00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:09,080
Speaker 3: other stalls that are open.

574
00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:11,560
Speaker 6: That the chargers are broken or the targets. Yeah, I mean,

575
00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:14,080
Speaker 6: I will say the Teslam Teslas charges are never broken.

576
00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:17,200
Speaker 6: But the what is it ev America or not never broken?

577
00:28:17,240 --> 00:28:19,320
Speaker 6: But I forget exactly what they are.

578
00:28:19,359 --> 00:28:22,800
Speaker 3: The private other companies are awful in terms of the infrastructure.

579
00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:24,240
Speaker 1: But I saw that and I was like, man, I

580
00:28:24,240 --> 00:28:24,600
Speaker 1: mean if.

581
00:28:24,520 --> 00:28:27,280
Speaker 3: You if you make charging similar to just filling up

582
00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:29,760
Speaker 3: a gas you know, a gas tank, like that is

583
00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:32,560
Speaker 3: changes the whole ball game. Yeah, I even saw. I

584
00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:34,480
Speaker 3: think they can go ten to ninety I think in

585
00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:38,400
Speaker 3: ten minutes, which is shocking, right for that's for hundreds

586
00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:41,000
Speaker 3: of miles to charge to be able to go, like,

587
00:28:41,320 --> 00:28:43,360
Speaker 3: I don't know, I mean I see that, and I

588
00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:47,200
Speaker 3: see also you have this feeling of abandonment by the

589
00:28:47,320 --> 00:28:50,400
Speaker 3: United States in all of these different countries. We talked

590
00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:54,480
Speaker 3: a lot about Asia over the last several months. Well,

591
00:28:54,680 --> 00:28:56,720
Speaker 3: it's going to be very difficult for them to keep

592
00:28:56,760 --> 00:29:01,080
Speaker 3: a superior product and to really just like align itself

593
00:29:01,280 --> 00:29:04,280
Speaker 3: with America over this period. I really do think you

594
00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:06,800
Speaker 3: know that this we will live with the consequences of

595
00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:09,640
Speaker 3: that for a really long time. On top of Tesla,

596
00:29:09,800 --> 00:29:11,400
Speaker 3: I mean, if you look, they don't they don't even

597
00:29:11,400 --> 00:29:13,240
Speaker 3: want to be a car company anymore. That's one kind

598
00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:15,560
Speaker 3: of thing which is crazy. They want to become a

599
00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:17,720
Speaker 3: robotaxi and robot company.

600
00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:20,000
Speaker 1: They have. They want nothing to do with the car business.

601
00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:23,320
Speaker 3: They've ended the production of some of their models explicitly

602
00:29:23,400 --> 00:29:26,200
Speaker 3: just to move to what is it, cybercab, their robotaxi

603
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:28,360
Speaker 3: and then two robots. They say it in their own

604
00:29:28,560 --> 00:29:32,280
Speaker 3: you know, production documents, so they're almost acquiescing in certain ways.

605
00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:34,640
Speaker 3: So anyway, yeah, I mean it's a tangent, but I

606
00:29:34,720 --> 00:29:37,440
Speaker 3: was fascinated by that in terms of how the war

607
00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:41,720
Speaker 3: could significantly accelerate EV adoption in the rest of the world,

608
00:29:41,880 --> 00:29:43,600
Speaker 3: which is de facto good for China.

609
00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:44,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, and for their market.

610
00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:47,880
Speaker 2: I mean, the only reason our domestic car producers are

611
00:29:47,960 --> 00:29:50,840
Speaker 2: competitive in the EV market at all is because we

612
00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:53,360
Speaker 2: cannot buy like I mean, it would be it would

613
00:29:53,360 --> 00:29:56,320
Speaker 2: be over for them if we were allowed to purchase

614
00:29:56,320 --> 00:29:59,880
Speaker 2: the vehicles because they're just more technologically advanced. And yeah,

615
00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:02,920
Speaker 2: if we had the infrastructure here and we had that

616
00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:05,880
Speaker 2: level of tech, it would be, you know, only a

617
00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:08,040
Speaker 2: matter of time before the full transition happened, because the

618
00:30:08,080 --> 00:30:10,560
Speaker 2: technology genuinely is superior. Like not having to go to

619
00:30:10,600 --> 00:30:12,880
Speaker 2: the gas station, Philip is great. There's less maintenance on

620
00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:14,680
Speaker 2: the car, not having to get the little light coming on.

621
00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:16,280
Speaker 2: Oh you got to get your oil changed again.

622
00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:17,000
Speaker 5: It's great.

623
00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:19,640
Speaker 2: The way they drive is fantastic. It is going to

624
00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:21,640
Speaker 2: be the future. It's just a matter of time. And

625
00:30:22,000 --> 00:30:24,720
Speaker 2: you know, the Trump administration has this like ideological war

626
00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:27,800
Speaker 2: on evs and any sort of renewable energy that has

627
00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:31,360
Speaker 2: precluded us from moving more aggressively in that direction. But

628
00:30:31,560 --> 00:30:33,920
Speaker 2: ultimately I think the technology will win out.

629
00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:36,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's certainly possible. All right, let's get to the polls.

630
00:30:39,760 --> 00:30:43,880
Speaker 2: Very interesting interview with a Maga grandma who was a

631
00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:46,960
Speaker 2: big Trump supporter and now says she is so upset

632
00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:49,800
Speaker 2: over the price increases that she is seeing and the

633
00:30:49,880 --> 00:30:53,040
Speaker 2: Trump economy that she is having literal panic attacks.

634
00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:54,560
Speaker 5: Let's take a listen to what she had to say.

635
00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:56,440
Speaker 7: I actually have panic attacks.

636
00:30:58,360 --> 00:31:00,280
Speaker 5: I've had a couple this past week.

637
00:31:01,760 --> 00:31:06,800
Speaker 7: And I get very emotional over it. I don't want

638
00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:09,880
Speaker 7: to work anymore, but I can't afford to retire.

639
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:14,160
Speaker 2: Obviously, President Trump is immensely wealthy, has been wealthy since

640
00:31:14,200 --> 00:31:15,080
Speaker 2: he was borne.

641
00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:20,160
Speaker 1: Do you think he understands No, he.

642
00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:23,800
Speaker 7: Hasn't lived it. To understand it. He sees it, he

643
00:31:23,840 --> 00:31:27,080
Speaker 7: has not lived it. He needs to live it. Wear

644
00:31:27,160 --> 00:31:30,600
Speaker 7: the clothes, wear the shoes. Wear your Walmart clothes, wear

645
00:31:30,600 --> 00:31:37,360
Speaker 7: your Walmart shoes, do your thrift store shopping. Don't eat steaks.

646
00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:40,080
Speaker 7: I don't get to go out to dinner. It's not

647
00:31:40,120 --> 00:31:43,400
Speaker 7: an overnight thing. But it's been two years now. You

648
00:31:43,440 --> 00:31:47,680
Speaker 7: said you'd bring down the grocery prices. Literally, I must

649
00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:50,920
Speaker 7: be the most angry person when I grocery shop because

650
00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:54,920
Speaker 7: I buy the same things every week, and I see

651
00:31:55,160 --> 00:31:57,960
Speaker 7: it jump every week. It is not every couple months,

652
00:31:58,120 --> 00:32:00,000
Speaker 7: it's literally every week.

653
00:32:00,960 --> 00:32:02,480
Speaker 5: So she is not happy.

654
00:32:02,520 --> 00:32:05,400
Speaker 2: Hard to imagine that woman enthusiastically turning up to vote

655
00:32:05,400 --> 00:32:08,960
Speaker 2: for Republicans in the midterms given her upset over their handle.

656
00:32:09,000 --> 00:32:11,360
Speaker 5: Does that means you'll vote for Democrats? No? Probably not.

657
00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:13,520
Speaker 2: Is she one that just says, you know what I

658
00:32:13,560 --> 00:32:15,440
Speaker 2: got other things to do on election day. I'm just

659
00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:17,880
Speaker 2: not showing up. This party does not deserve my support

660
00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:21,240
Speaker 2: at this moment. That seems very likely, if not probable.

661
00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:23,440
Speaker 2: And there was a ride of the New York Times

662
00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:26,320
Speaker 2: of their recent polling with regard to a group that

663
00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:28,800
Speaker 2: has long been considered Trump's strongest base.

664
00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:31,080
Speaker 5: Of support, which is the white working class.

665
00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:35,080
Speaker 2: And they are in a very different mindset for these

666
00:32:35,280 --> 00:32:39,120
Speaker 2: midterms versus where they were for the twenty eighteen midterms.

667
00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:41,200
Speaker 2: We could put this next element up on the screen.

668
00:32:41,280 --> 00:32:45,200
Speaker 2: So back in twenty eighteen, working class voters approved of

669
00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:48,320
Speaker 2: Trump on the economy by thirty plus points, So whatever

670
00:32:48,360 --> 00:32:50,200
Speaker 2: else concerns they may have had, they were.

671
00:32:50,080 --> 00:32:52,240
Speaker 5: Like, look, this is working for me. Okay.

672
00:32:52,400 --> 00:32:54,680
Speaker 2: I feel like I've got more money in my pocket.

673
00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:57,600
Speaker 2: I feel like things are speeding along by thirty points.

674
00:32:57,680 --> 00:32:58,040
Speaker 5: Okay.

675
00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:02,360
Speaker 2: Now they disapprove of his handling of the economy by

676
00:33:02,480 --> 00:33:06,760
Speaker 2: as much as that margin, so minus thirty points. And

677
00:33:06,800 --> 00:33:10,080
Speaker 2: then they have a deeper look at the way some

678
00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:12,880
Speaker 2: of these voters are feeling about Trump, and that really

679
00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:16,800
Speaker 2: is a night and day difference between this term and

680
00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:18,960
Speaker 2: the last time he was in office. Sore where I

681
00:33:19,000 --> 00:33:20,720
Speaker 2: think A big part of the reason he got back

682
00:33:20,760 --> 00:33:23,000
Speaker 2: into office is because people looked at that time and

683
00:33:23,040 --> 00:33:24,800
Speaker 2: were like, well, I felt pretty good about the economy then,

684
00:33:24,800 --> 00:33:26,880
Speaker 2: and I feel pretty bad about the economy now. So

685
00:33:27,280 --> 00:33:31,080
Speaker 2: you know, this guy's his businessman, that's his core brand. Now,

686
00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:34,160
Speaker 2: between not only the tariffs, but obviously the terrorsts and

687
00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:38,760
Speaker 2: the Iran war, people feel completely differently. Where his lowest

688
00:33:39,080 --> 00:33:42,680
Speaker 2: approval ratings are on the economy, on inflation, and on

689
00:33:42,960 --> 00:33:46,120
Speaker 2: cost of living. So when you consider, you know, how

690
00:33:46,160 --> 00:33:49,040
Speaker 2: will these midterms compare with what was a very negative

691
00:33:49,080 --> 00:33:51,479
Speaker 2: midterm result for them in twenty eighteen, I think all

692
00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:53,080
Speaker 2: the signs are there that this will be an even

693
00:33:53,160 --> 00:33:54,480
Speaker 2: bigger way for Democrats.

694
00:33:54,640 --> 00:33:58,120
Speaker 3: I think what's interesting about the working class polls and

695
00:33:58,160 --> 00:34:00,720
Speaker 3: if you read, you know, very deeply into all of

696
00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:03,360
Speaker 3: these numbers, the blue collar white voters, and that Maga

697
00:34:03,360 --> 00:34:05,800
Speaker 3: Grandma is like a perfect example. Now, these people are

698
00:34:05,800 --> 00:34:08,359
Speaker 3: not Democrats, Like, It's actually very clear. And I think

699
00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:10,520
Speaker 3: even you know, one of our guests yesterday was talking

700
00:34:10,520 --> 00:34:13,239
Speaker 3: about this as well with young men. Yeah yeah, yeah,

701
00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:16,439
Speaker 3: Luke was like, look, these people aren't Dems, but they're

702
00:34:16,480 --> 00:34:19,640
Speaker 3: still mad and being mad you know, sometimes they can

703
00:34:19,680 --> 00:34:22,680
Speaker 3: be converted a significant slice, and ultimately, as the tried

704
00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:25,040
Speaker 3: expression goes, it comes down to turn out. But in

705
00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:28,960
Speaker 3: twenty eighteen, the white working class had a very like

706
00:34:29,080 --> 00:34:31,839
Speaker 3: low drop in the amount of approval that Donald Trump

707
00:34:31,880 --> 00:34:34,880
Speaker 3: has had. But now, I mean, you're near forty percent

708
00:34:35,000 --> 00:34:39,000
Speaker 3: in terms of the reservoir of goodwill, it's completely evaporated.

709
00:34:39,239 --> 00:34:40,879
Speaker 1: I also think it was such a.

710
00:34:40,840 --> 00:34:45,040
Speaker 3: Potent talking point back in twenty twenty four, Make America

711
00:34:45,080 --> 00:34:46,080
Speaker 3: twenty nineteen again?

712
00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:47,920
Speaker 1: How could somebody not want that?

713
00:34:48,080 --> 00:34:50,239
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, you had low inflation, you had

714
00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:52,919
Speaker 3: decent growth. Yes, you know what was the famous saying

715
00:34:52,960 --> 00:34:54,520
Speaker 3: that they would always be like all I had were

716
00:34:54,560 --> 00:34:57,360
Speaker 3: some bad tweets. It's like, yeah, okay, I mean, seems

717
00:34:57,400 --> 00:35:00,759
Speaker 3: tolerable in comparison to what we've just said to experience

718
00:35:00,880 --> 00:35:03,040
Speaker 3: over the last four years. But now when you have

719
00:35:03,080 --> 00:35:06,479
Speaker 3: a bad economy, you have no reduction inflation, you actually

720
00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:09,320
Speaker 3: an increase in the overall inflation, you have no change

721
00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:11,839
Speaker 3: in overall housing, and you have how long has Trump

722
00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:12,319
Speaker 3: been an office?

723
00:35:12,360 --> 00:35:14,400
Speaker 1: Almost two years now, it was a year and a

724
00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:15,239
Speaker 1: half or so.

725
00:35:15,440 --> 00:35:19,040
Speaker 3: An almost total and complete focus at this point on

726
00:35:19,120 --> 00:35:23,440
Speaker 3: foreign affairs, with the signature achievement and you know, memory

727
00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:26,200
Speaker 3: ultimately when we write the history books, you know, on

728
00:35:26,280 --> 00:35:28,880
Speaker 3: the admin this is it. And everybody knows it, including

729
00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:31,680
Speaker 3: the people who are involved from the Israeli side and

730
00:35:31,680 --> 00:35:34,600
Speaker 3: from you know, the anti war side. Everybody knows that

731
00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:39,439
Speaker 3: war ultimately defines everything about your presidency. And so that's

732
00:35:39,440 --> 00:35:42,120
Speaker 3: what he decided to make his ultimate gamble on. And

733
00:35:42,200 --> 00:35:45,240
Speaker 3: with the economy continuing in the direction that it already

734
00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:47,600
Speaker 3: was even before the Iran War, on top of what

735
00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:50,760
Speaker 3: just happened, it's very obvious even those people coming back,

736
00:35:51,000 --> 00:35:52,920
Speaker 3: it's going to be very, very difficult. You would have

737
00:35:52,920 --> 00:35:55,600
Speaker 3: to see a massive material change in the US economy,

738
00:35:55,600 --> 00:35:57,920
Speaker 3: which on autopilot we know that's not happening.

739
00:35:58,560 --> 00:36:00,160
Speaker 1: Significant government intervention.

740
00:36:00,200 --> 00:36:02,640
Speaker 2: Ones ties in with the block we just did about

741
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:05,120
Speaker 2: how look, you may have a deal, it may even

742
00:36:05,160 --> 00:36:07,799
Speaker 2: come together in sixty days. There's still going to be months,

743
00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:11,280
Speaker 2: and the Trump administration is outright saying months of disruption

744
00:36:11,440 --> 00:36:14,080
Speaker 2: to the energy markets. Things are not going to just

745
00:36:14,160 --> 00:36:17,520
Speaker 2: go back to the way that they were. And voters

746
00:36:17,600 --> 00:36:21,839
Speaker 2: are understand where to place the blame because he I mean,

747
00:36:21,880 --> 00:36:24,160
Speaker 2: I think because he has such a you know, larger

748
00:36:24,200 --> 00:36:28,440
Speaker 2: than life personality, takes such personal control over everything anyway.

749
00:36:28,840 --> 00:36:31,520
Speaker 2: And then also because the terriffs and the war are

750
00:36:31,640 --> 00:36:35,120
Speaker 2: directly laid at his feet, so you know why you're

751
00:36:35,120 --> 00:36:38,160
Speaker 2: paying more at the pump. And you know the other

752
00:36:38,200 --> 00:36:41,440
Speaker 2: piece soager is he hasn't done himself any favors rhetorically.

753
00:36:41,800 --> 00:36:43,839
Speaker 2: When you come out and you say, quote, I love

754
00:36:43,880 --> 00:36:46,680
Speaker 2: the inflation. Yes, when you come out and you say

755
00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:51,120
Speaker 2: I don't think about American's financial situation at all. You

756
00:36:51,120 --> 00:36:53,120
Speaker 2: don't think Democrats are going to run that on a

757
00:36:53,200 --> 00:36:56,640
Speaker 2: loop until election day one hundred percent as they should.

758
00:36:57,080 --> 00:36:59,640
Speaker 2: And you know you can claim it was out of context.

759
00:36:59,640 --> 00:37:01,240
Speaker 2: We play for you the entire context.

760
00:37:01,280 --> 00:37:01,880
Speaker 7: No, he was.

761
00:37:02,320 --> 00:37:05,920
Speaker 2: He was articulating exactly what it sounded like he was articulating.

762
00:37:06,160 --> 00:37:08,000
Speaker 2: And I think that comes through in that woman's comments

763
00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:09,960
Speaker 2: as well, where she says he hasn't lived it, so

764
00:37:10,040 --> 00:37:11,879
Speaker 2: he doesn't understand. I want him to go on wear

765
00:37:11,880 --> 00:37:14,359
Speaker 2: the Walmart clothes and know what it's like for us

766
00:37:14,440 --> 00:37:18,040
Speaker 2: struggling to get by. Another area that's interesting to put

767
00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:20,440
Speaker 2: the last element here up on the screen is there

768
00:37:20,520 --> 00:37:23,480
Speaker 2: was a lot of fanfare about the significant gains that

769
00:37:23,480 --> 00:37:27,279
Speaker 2: Trump had made among working class Latino men in particular,

770
00:37:27,320 --> 00:37:31,520
Speaker 2: but among Latinos overall, Man that has also fallen off

771
00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:35,160
Speaker 2: a cliff. You now have sixty four percent of Latinos

772
00:37:35,320 --> 00:37:38,600
Speaker 2: with a disapproval of Trump, only thirty four percent approve.

773
00:37:39,120 --> 00:37:40,400
Speaker 5: Seventy seven percent of.

774
00:37:40,440 --> 00:37:43,399
Speaker 2: Voters between ages eighteen and twenty nine disapprove of Trump

775
00:37:43,480 --> 00:37:47,520
Speaker 2: compared to twenty one percent who approve. So also the vaunted,

776
00:37:47,600 --> 00:37:51,200
Speaker 2: you know, improvement with young voters that has all dissipated. Again,

777
00:37:51,280 --> 00:37:53,560
Speaker 2: that doesn't mean these people have become like you know,

778
00:37:53,680 --> 00:37:58,160
Speaker 2: resistance liberal Democrats super excited to vote for like Roy

779
00:37:58,160 --> 00:38:02,000
Speaker 2: Cooper in North Carolina or whatever. But are these tend

780
00:38:02,040 --> 00:38:03,600
Speaker 2: to be infrequent voters.

781
00:38:03,600 --> 00:38:04,759
Speaker 5: They're just not going to show up.

782
00:38:04,840 --> 00:38:07,640
Speaker 2: They're just they're they're going to register, They're discussed by

783
00:38:07,680 --> 00:38:11,400
Speaker 2: staying home on election day. The only group where Trump

784
00:38:11,400 --> 00:38:14,640
Speaker 2: has maintained solid support is with Republicans, and even there,

785
00:38:15,000 --> 00:38:17,680
Speaker 2: the percent that say that they strongly approve of him

786
00:38:17,880 --> 00:38:21,800
Speaker 2: has fallen. And that is a really significant change from

787
00:38:21,920 --> 00:38:24,480
Speaker 2: you know, the entirety of his political career since he

788
00:38:24,560 --> 00:38:27,560
Speaker 2: really came on the scene in twenty fourteen, twenty fifteen.

789
00:38:27,760 --> 00:38:30,120
Speaker 2: So you know, that also is going to have an

790
00:38:30,160 --> 00:38:33,440
Speaker 2: impact on midterm enthusiasm and who ultimately shows up to

791
00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:36,400
Speaker 2: vote the thing of the You know, I don't know

792
00:38:36,480 --> 00:38:38,640
Speaker 2: whether he truly doesn't care, but he sure it certainly

793
00:38:38,640 --> 00:38:40,360
Speaker 2: acts like he doesn't really care what happens in the

794
00:38:40,360 --> 00:38:43,040
Speaker 2: midterms anyway. No, I guess you could make an argument

795
00:38:43,239 --> 00:38:45,360
Speaker 2: that the very fact that he made such a push

796
00:38:45,400 --> 00:38:48,240
Speaker 2: for a deal right now is because he was concerned

797
00:38:48,640 --> 00:38:52,120
Speaker 2: about the political impact. But there's just no real side

798
00:38:52,360 --> 00:38:53,799
Speaker 2: that this is something he's focused on.

799
00:38:53,920 --> 00:38:56,480
Speaker 3: I have no inside information. This is my theory of

800
00:38:56,480 --> 00:39:01,120
Speaker 3: observing this man now for a decade, depressing I've professional

801
00:39:01,160 --> 00:39:04,120
Speaker 3: life trying to psycho analyze this person. I think the

802
00:39:04,160 --> 00:39:07,000
Speaker 3: way that JD and the Rick koffin all those guys

803
00:39:07,000 --> 00:39:09,880
Speaker 3: got to him was this, sir, and look at the

804
00:39:09,880 --> 00:39:10,759
Speaker 3: way that they're selling it.

805
00:39:10,840 --> 00:39:14,480
Speaker 1: We're going to transform the entire Middle East. The way

806
00:39:14,480 --> 00:39:16,120
Speaker 1: that they sold it to him is like the lemon

807
00:39:16,160 --> 00:39:18,800
Speaker 1: will building. It's like, you will.

808
00:39:18,600 --> 00:39:23,200
Speaker 3: Bring peace, the peace maker, Trump, the peacemaker to Persia,

809
00:39:23,280 --> 00:39:25,920
Speaker 3: the first of his name, Donald Trump, you know, to

810
00:39:26,800 --> 00:39:29,879
Speaker 3: march in the gates of Persia. And he loves that, right,

811
00:39:29,920 --> 00:39:31,880
Speaker 3: you know, he loved the idea of conquering it. He

812
00:39:31,960 --> 00:39:35,239
Speaker 3: loves even more the idea of normalizing relations with the

813
00:39:35,239 --> 00:39:38,200
Speaker 3: whole region. That's why only Trump could attack them, demand

814
00:39:38,280 --> 00:39:41,800
Speaker 3: unconditional surrender, and then turn them into an economic powerhouse.

815
00:39:41,840 --> 00:39:44,120
Speaker 3: Like literally nobody else could do that. But that's how

816
00:39:44,160 --> 00:39:46,960
Speaker 3: they appeal to his vanities, like you will appear in

817
00:39:46,960 --> 00:39:49,640
Speaker 3: this historic peace deal, and that's the way that we'll

818
00:39:49,640 --> 00:39:50,399
Speaker 3: get everything going.

819
00:39:50,480 --> 00:39:52,000
Speaker 1: These Raelies did it to him, that's how they got

820
00:39:52,080 --> 00:39:52,840
Speaker 1: him to attack.

821
00:39:52,600 --> 00:39:54,480
Speaker 3: In the first place. So the you know, the other

822
00:39:54,560 --> 00:39:56,640
Speaker 3: side basically did the same thing. I don't think he

823
00:39:56,719 --> 00:40:00,520
Speaker 3: cares whatsoever about the midterms because the administration has given

824
00:40:00,600 --> 00:40:03,560
Speaker 3: up on domestic concerns again, Like, if you vote for

825
00:40:03,840 --> 00:40:06,879
Speaker 3: Republicans in the midterm elections, what are you voting for? Right?

826
00:40:06,960 --> 00:40:09,160
Speaker 1: Like what? Well, And it's not like there's nothing on

827
00:40:09,160 --> 00:40:11,680
Speaker 1: the table. There's not even like a deal nothing. Yeah.

828
00:40:11,520 --> 00:40:11,680
Speaker 7: Yeah.

829
00:40:11,719 --> 00:40:14,200
Speaker 2: And the only thing that they really worked with Congress

830
00:40:14,200 --> 00:40:16,360
Speaker 2: on at all was the big beautiful.

831
00:40:15,960 --> 00:40:18,759
Speaker 1: Bill correct which is gone, which has done been wiped out.

832
00:40:18,920 --> 00:40:22,440
Speaker 2: Right Yeah, so yeah, I mean he does when he

833
00:40:22,480 --> 00:40:24,719
Speaker 2: wants to do something, he just does it through executive

834
00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:28,080
Speaker 2: order and implements it and then dares the courts to

835
00:40:28,280 --> 00:40:31,040
Speaker 2: pull him back, which they mostly haven't done, so he

836
00:40:31,080 --> 00:40:35,360
Speaker 2: doesn't really care that much about Congress. He himself is

837
00:40:35,680 --> 00:40:39,200
Speaker 2: immune from criminal investigations of any sort of you know,

838
00:40:39,280 --> 00:40:41,560
Speaker 2: wrongdoing or as many corrupt dealings, et cetera.

839
00:40:42,000 --> 00:40:43,840
Speaker 5: So while obviously it's.

840
00:40:43,680 --> 00:40:46,200
Speaker 2: Going to be uncomfortable for a lot of Republicans who

841
00:40:46,280 --> 00:40:50,120
Speaker 2: are facing subpoenas and various investigations if Democrats are in control,

842
00:40:50,239 --> 00:40:54,120
Speaker 2: like Trump doesn't care about them either, So I think

843
00:40:54,160 --> 00:40:56,319
Speaker 2: it's genuine. When that was another thing he said, he said,

844
00:40:56,320 --> 00:40:58,040
Speaker 2: I don't care about the midterms. Memory he said he

845
00:40:58,080 --> 00:40:59,960
Speaker 2: said that, and I think he's right. I think he's

846
00:41:00,160 --> 00:41:01,960
Speaker 2: telling the truth there. I don't think that he thinks

847
00:41:02,000 --> 00:41:05,200
Speaker 2: about it all that much, because if he did, then

848
00:41:05,280 --> 00:41:07,440
Speaker 2: you might see some some different moves. I don't think

849
00:41:07,440 --> 00:41:09,319
Speaker 2: he'd be out there saying I love the inflation and

850
00:41:09,360 --> 00:41:11,640
Speaker 2: I don't care about your financial situation. If he was

851
00:41:11,640 --> 00:41:13,400
Speaker 2: really thinking about those political consequences.

852
00:41:13,400 --> 00:41:16,000
Speaker 3: You really should care because it's going to be Clinton

853
00:41:16,040 --> 00:41:18,640
Speaker 3: two point zero if the Dems win, I mean, really

854
00:41:18,800 --> 00:41:20,080
Speaker 3: is going to be a nightmare.

855
00:41:20,160 --> 00:41:21,840
Speaker 2: Well, the reason you should care is because of that

856
00:41:21,960 --> 00:41:25,279
Speaker 2: legacy piece, because you know, I mean, it's already his

857
00:41:25,360 --> 00:41:27,160
Speaker 2: legacy is already going to be a mess, whether he

858
00:41:27,239 --> 00:41:29,359
Speaker 2: knows it or not. But if you spend the last

859
00:41:29,400 --> 00:41:32,480
Speaker 2: two years of your presidency just having you know, various

860
00:41:32,480 --> 00:41:36,759
Speaker 2: of your officials like under this, under scrutiny for corrupt dealings,

861
00:41:36,920 --> 00:41:40,080
Speaker 2: and you know, if it's just investigation after investigation, and

862
00:41:40,120 --> 00:41:42,839
Speaker 2: that's what the entire news cycle is about, day after

863
00:41:42,920 --> 00:41:45,520
Speaker 2: day after day, it's yeah, it's not going to be

864
00:41:45,520 --> 00:41:46,480
Speaker 2: a great legacy.

865
00:41:46,200 --> 00:41:46,759
Speaker 5: Builder for you.

866
00:41:46,920 --> 00:41:47,120
Speaker 1: Yeah.

867
00:41:47,120 --> 00:41:50,399
Speaker 3: I mean, seriously, people should recall, like the Clinton administration,

868
00:41:50,600 --> 00:41:54,200
Speaker 3: they're not There's some modern histories of ninety six to

869
00:41:54,400 --> 00:41:59,160
Speaker 3: two thousand, it was a non stop the Kenneth Star nonsense,

870
00:41:59,239 --> 00:42:02,399
Speaker 3: like it would just went on forever, like.

871
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:04,960
Speaker 1: That is what modern Fox News is built off of.

872
00:42:05,280 --> 00:42:09,520
Speaker 3: Lewinsky and ken Starr and Whitewater and the Rose Law.

873
00:42:09,680 --> 00:42:12,920
Speaker 3: Like it was oh my god, Like no, no president

874
00:42:12,960 --> 00:42:14,600
Speaker 3: would want to live through that. I mean you can

875
00:42:14,640 --> 00:42:18,320
Speaker 3: even see remember some of the Obama administration too. Whenever

876
00:42:18,360 --> 00:42:20,759
Speaker 3: he had to deal with the Republican Congress, I mean,

877
00:42:20,800 --> 00:42:23,040
Speaker 3: it was over for him. They tried to do the

878
00:42:23,160 --> 00:42:26,080
Speaker 3: Grand Bargain on Social Security and from that point forward,

879
00:42:26,120 --> 00:42:28,040
Speaker 3: that's why he did the Iron Deal. Actually, in retrospect,

880
00:42:28,080 --> 00:42:30,000
Speaker 3: that's why he became obsessed with foreign affairs.

881
00:42:30,040 --> 00:42:33,520
Speaker 1: He couldn't do anything else. So it just that's just

882
00:42:33,560 --> 00:42:34,040
Speaker 1: with the House.

883
00:42:34,120 --> 00:42:37,040
Speaker 3: Now imagine with both parts, you know, both the House

884
00:42:37,120 --> 00:42:40,640
Speaker 3: and the Senate. Yeah, nothing, It'll turn to a nightmare.

885
00:42:40,840 --> 00:42:43,960
Speaker 3: You have total subpoena power. Every day of your White

886
00:42:44,000 --> 00:42:47,400
Speaker 3: House and administration will be dealt with a new attack,

887
00:42:47,520 --> 00:42:50,200
Speaker 3: a new hearing, a new trial. I mean they'll put

888
00:42:50,239 --> 00:42:52,160
Speaker 3: him on trial. I mean, who even knows right? And

889
00:42:52,160 --> 00:42:54,719
Speaker 3: they have, you know, all of the abilt Every every

890
00:42:54,760 --> 00:42:57,400
Speaker 3: single member of Congress will be required or every single

891
00:42:57,440 --> 00:42:59,960
Speaker 3: Cabinet official will be live in before Capitol Hill.

892
00:43:00,080 --> 00:43:01,080
Speaker 1: Every guy who ever.

893
00:43:00,960 --> 00:43:03,600
Speaker 3: Served in DOGE will have a million dollars in private

894
00:43:03,680 --> 00:43:05,399
Speaker 3: legal bills, like it's gonna be.

895
00:43:05,360 --> 00:43:09,640
Speaker 2: Epstein investigators, cover up investigations. All the stuff that you

896
00:43:09,920 --> 00:43:12,440
Speaker 2: that he clearly did not want to talk about is

897
00:43:12,480 --> 00:43:14,560
Speaker 2: going to be drag front and center every single day.

898
00:43:14,600 --> 00:43:16,799
Speaker 2: And I think at this point, I think Democrats will

899
00:43:16,800 --> 00:43:18,360
Speaker 2: take the House. I think it's more likely than not

900
00:43:18,480 --> 00:43:20,439
Speaker 2: that they take the Senate as well, which is really

901
00:43:20,480 --> 00:43:24,640
Speaker 2: crazy because like the landscape for them was so difficult

902
00:43:24,680 --> 00:43:25,120
Speaker 2: coming in.

903
00:43:25,360 --> 00:43:27,040
Speaker 5: They have to win in places.

904
00:43:26,640 --> 00:43:30,719
Speaker 2: Like Ohio and Alaska or Texas, to be able to

905
00:43:30,800 --> 00:43:33,200
Speaker 2: take the Senate. And yet I think, given you know

906
00:43:33,239 --> 00:43:34,839
Speaker 2: the numbers that we just showed you, I think that

907
00:43:34,960 --> 00:43:36,319
Speaker 2: is more likely than not.

908
00:43:36,520 --> 00:43:39,360
Speaker 5: But you never know. We've seen crazy things happening.

909
00:43:39,400 --> 00:43:41,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, Harry Innton gave that warning on the

910
00:43:42,000 --> 00:43:44,200
Speaker 3: generic ballot. He was like, look, Dems are you know,

911
00:43:44,200 --> 00:43:46,839
Speaker 3: they're doing well, but they're still not exactly exactly where

912
00:43:46,880 --> 00:43:48,920
Speaker 3: they need to because there's still a lot of dissatisfaction

913
00:43:49,200 --> 00:43:51,480
Speaker 3: with the Democratic Party. I think the problem with this

914
00:43:51,520 --> 00:43:54,440
Speaker 3: analysis is that people may not like the Democratic Party.

915
00:43:54,600 --> 00:43:57,040
Speaker 3: People didn't love the Republican Party either in twenty ten,

916
00:43:57,080 --> 00:43:59,400
Speaker 3: but they hated Obama where they stayed home, so it

917
00:43:59,440 --> 00:44:01,520
Speaker 3: could work out to their benefit. All Right, thank you

918
00:44:01,520 --> 00:44:03,879
Speaker 3: guys so much for watching. We appreciate it. We're about

919
00:44:03,880 --> 00:44:06,000
Speaker 3: to do the Ama so you could stick around for that,

920
00:44:06,480 --> 00:44:08,040
Speaker 3: or I guess you will have watched it already by

921
00:44:08,080 --> 00:44:10,239
Speaker 3: the time this comes out. There'll be at Wednesday show.

922
00:44:10,280 --> 00:44:11,319
Speaker 3: We'll see They'll see you then,