WEBVTT - Labor Secretary Scalia's 'Double Talk' Is Shocking: Ritholtz 0:00:01.400 --> 0:00:04.120 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along 0:00:04.120 --> 0:00:06.240 with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day 0:00:06.240 --> 0:00:10.360 we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, 0:00:10.400 --> 0:00:13.600 along with essential market moving news. Kind of Bloomberg Markets 0:00:13.600 --> 0:00:17.000 Podcast on Apple podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, 0:00:17.000 --> 0:00:21.040 and on Bloomberg dot com. I want to point out 0:00:21.040 --> 0:00:23.560 that we'll be speaking with the Labor Secretary Eugene Scalia 0:00:23.760 --> 0:00:26.439 in just a few minutes Alex Steele and Guy Johnson 0:00:26.480 --> 0:00:29.360 with that interview on the current state of the American 0:00:29.440 --> 0:00:33.400 economic recovery. Also jobs, of course, not such a pretty picture. 0:00:33.440 --> 0:00:36.920 Weekly jobless claims coming in today. They did fall, but 0:00:37.080 --> 0:00:39.920 still coming in at one million, four hundred and eighty 0:00:40.040 --> 0:00:43.120 thousand initial jobless claims. That was down from one point 0:00:43.159 --> 0:00:46.280 five four million, but not as big of a drop 0:00:46.400 --> 0:00:50.880 as economists had estimated. PAULI ensured unappoyment rate falling as well, 0:00:50.880 --> 0:00:53.519 but to thirteen point four percent. I mean, it's a massive, 0:00:53.640 --> 0:00:56.520 massive number of no doubt. The Labor Secretary will suggest 0:00:56.600 --> 0:00:58.720 that it would have been even more massive were it 0:00:58.800 --> 0:01:02.319 not for everything that a government did. But it's it's 0:01:02.440 --> 0:01:04.680 very hard to look at those numbers and not feel 0:01:04.920 --> 0:01:07.600 like there's a big problem out there. There really is. 0:01:07.640 --> 0:01:10.480 And I think that one of our guests earlier mentioned 0:01:10.520 --> 0:01:12.040 that it was, you know, fourteen weeks into this and 0:01:12.080 --> 0:01:14.480 we're still having these types of number. Right, let's send 0:01:14.480 --> 0:01:16.520 it over now to Bloomer TV and Alex Steel and 0:01:16.520 --> 0:01:23.319 Guy Johnson with the Labor Secretary. You help black employment, well, Uh, 0:01:23.640 --> 0:01:29.080 the economy before the coronavirus hit, of course was uh 0:01:29.120 --> 0:01:35.520 the single best economy that African Americans had experienced in 0:01:35.520 --> 0:01:38.840 in in in in this country. Uh, it was an 0:01:38.840 --> 0:01:43.679 economy that was great for Americans all around, with unemployment 0:01:43.680 --> 0:01:48.080 that hit a UM fifty year low. Job creation was 0:01:48.160 --> 0:01:51.000 more than three times what had been predicted when the 0:01:51.000 --> 0:01:55.000 president came in, but unemployment for African Americans was particularly low, 0:01:55.560 --> 0:01:57.280 and that was one of the really great achievements of 0:01:57.320 --> 0:02:01.560 that economy. So I think looking for word, I was 0:02:01.560 --> 0:02:05.640 gonna say, Mr Secretary, undoubtedly correct, but no one expects 0:02:05.680 --> 0:02:07.680 us to get back to where we were. So when 0:02:07.720 --> 0:02:10.520 you take a look at say, wages, uh, for for 0:02:10.600 --> 0:02:14.080 black employees are lower than whites, any unemployment raised continually 0:02:14.200 --> 0:02:18.600 higher for those in the community. You need to fix that. 0:02:18.760 --> 0:02:22.120 So how do you do that? UM, well, you know, Alex, 0:02:22.360 --> 0:02:28.280 UH going forward the same policies that delivered the record 0:02:28.320 --> 0:02:30.919 low unemployment that we had until the virus came, or 0:02:31.000 --> 0:02:34.000 going to the policies that matter going forward. That's UH 0:02:34.080 --> 0:02:37.920 lightning the tax burden on American business, it's eliminating unnecessary 0:02:37.919 --> 0:02:41.680 regulatory burdens that read led to a great job creation 0:02:42.080 --> 0:02:45.800 and as you know, it also led to UH wage 0:02:45.800 --> 0:02:49.680 increases that were greater for people in lower income brackets. 0:02:49.680 --> 0:02:52.560 So those are all very good things for African Americans. 0:02:52.639 --> 0:02:55.120 I think a couple other things going forward. At one 0:02:55.919 --> 0:03:01.440 is the President's proclamation on Monday UH suspe bending UH 0:03:01.520 --> 0:03:04.840 immigrant workers until the end of the year to provide 0:03:04.840 --> 0:03:08.400 a buffer to give American workers a greater opportunity to 0:03:08.480 --> 0:03:11.000 get back into the workforce. I think that's going to 0:03:11.080 --> 0:03:14.320 help African American workers, it's going to help the economy 0:03:14.360 --> 0:03:17.760 more broadly. And then we have reforms that we're going 0:03:17.800 --> 0:03:19.760 to be looking to make to some of those immigrant 0:03:19.760 --> 0:03:22.079 worker programs too, that I think are going to deliver 0:03:22.160 --> 0:03:25.040 benefits across the board. The other thing I've mentioned is 0:03:25.080 --> 0:03:29.000 the U s m c A goes into effect next week. 0:03:29.480 --> 0:03:32.800 And that was one of the President's great achievements earlier 0:03:32.800 --> 0:03:37.240 this year, bipartisan legislation that could create as many as 0:03:37.280 --> 0:03:40.720 five hundred thousand new manufacturing jobs in this country, and 0:03:40.800 --> 0:03:43.440 that's going to be a boon again for all working Americans. 0:03:46.800 --> 0:03:50.000 It's the secondary Guy Johnson in London, why does keeping 0:03:50.080 --> 0:03:55.880 smart people out of the United States help the US economy? Well, Uh, 0:03:56.320 --> 0:04:00.480 the change that we've made is to give smarter Amricans 0:04:01.280 --> 0:04:04.839 a better opportunity to get jobs in an economy where 0:04:04.840 --> 0:04:09.440 we've made We've made progress over the last few weeks. Uh, 0:04:09.480 --> 0:04:12.119 with two and a half million jobs add in May. 0:04:12.200 --> 0:04:14.560 We know we've had a lot of jobs since then, 0:04:14.840 --> 0:04:17.799 but we've still got too many Americans out of work. 0:04:18.040 --> 0:04:20.360 We want to give them, uh an opportunity to get 0:04:20.400 --> 0:04:25.000 back to work. Uh. If in fact, a business can't 0:04:25.040 --> 0:04:27.960 find an American worker and there's a critical need to 0:04:27.960 --> 0:04:31.039 be filled, there will be an exceptions process under the 0:04:31.040 --> 0:04:34.400 President's order. But guy, long term, UH, we're going to 0:04:34.480 --> 0:04:37.880 reform this program precisely so it does a better job 0:04:38.360 --> 0:04:42.880 of bringing super talented workers into this country rather than 0:04:42.960 --> 0:04:46.520 low wage workers who are competing with Americans and undercutting 0:04:46.920 --> 0:04:52.359 American workers. Wages. We pivot and talk a little bit 0:04:52.360 --> 0:04:57.080 about today's claims data. Um, the indications are from from 0:04:57.120 --> 0:05:00.240 this this high frequency data. The what was thing in 0:05:00.240 --> 0:05:05.080 the US economy is a stabilization at a relatively high 0:05:05.200 --> 0:05:09.359 level of unemployments. UM. Do you think we're starting to 0:05:09.560 --> 0:05:13.480 see a more realistic kind of view of what is 0:05:13.520 --> 0:05:16.800 happening emerging from the data, because up until now we've 0:05:16.839 --> 0:05:19.479 seen a very strong bounce back. Do you think we're 0:05:19.520 --> 0:05:21.920 now starting to see evidence that that bounce back is 0:05:21.960 --> 0:05:26.360 slowing down? I don't read this data that way, guy, 0:05:26.400 --> 0:05:28.560 although I think it's a fair question. Because the initial 0:05:28.600 --> 0:05:32.000 claims number was a bit higher than had been projected. 0:05:32.040 --> 0:05:36.120 The number that really caught my attention was the continuing claims, 0:05:36.160 --> 0:05:38.919 that is, the people that are remaining on unemployment, and 0:05:38.960 --> 0:05:44.599 that dropped by about seven sixty seven thousand, a big drop. 0:05:44.920 --> 0:05:47.080 But there was also a correction for the prior week. 0:05:47.120 --> 0:05:49.800 You put them together, and we've got a million fewer 0:05:49.839 --> 0:05:53.520 people on unemployment UH today than we thought we had 0:05:53.880 --> 0:05:58.000 a week ago. That's that's progress. And the big report, 0:05:58.000 --> 0:06:00.240 as you know, will be a week from today when 0:06:00.279 --> 0:06:04.200 we put out our June jobs report. And UM, I'm 0:06:04.200 --> 0:06:08.279 hopeful that that will show really significant progress along the 0:06:08.320 --> 0:06:10.280 lines of what we we saw in May. I think 0:06:10.279 --> 0:06:13.080 that will be a more reliable indicator than you know. 0:06:13.160 --> 0:06:16.440 Initial claims are just claims file. They're not necessarily claims 0:06:16.440 --> 0:06:20.279 that are going to be accepted by the state. So 0:06:21.360 --> 0:06:24.520 even if we do get a better number for jobs Friday, 0:06:24.520 --> 0:06:26.160 it's still going to be bad. It will be a 0:06:26.240 --> 0:06:29.120 less bad kind of number. Um And at the same time, 0:06:29.160 --> 0:06:31.560 at the end of this month, that additional assistance in 0:06:31.640 --> 0:06:36.960 the unemployment checks from the Cares Act wears off. Anecdotally, Secretary, 0:06:37.040 --> 0:06:39.360 I have friends who literally will not be able to 0:06:39.400 --> 0:06:42.279 live without that extra money. What are you going to 0:06:42.360 --> 0:06:48.320 do for them? Well, Ax, you're right. The six benefit 0:06:48.680 --> 0:06:50.520 that was in the Cares Act, which was a really 0:06:50.560 --> 0:06:54.280 important benefit that the President and Congress provided when the 0:06:54.320 --> 0:06:57.600 economy was being closed down in March, that expires at 0:06:57.640 --> 0:07:00.040 the end of July. UM. But we're gonna be a 0:07:00.120 --> 0:07:02.599 very different situation at the end of July. Let's see 0:07:02.600 --> 0:07:04.200 what the report shows us next week. But we know 0:07:04.279 --> 0:07:07.040 the economy is reopening. We're we're not in a situation 0:07:07.080 --> 0:07:10.840 anymore where government authorities are saying, essentially you can't go 0:07:10.920 --> 0:07:14.000 to work. So I don't think that six benefit is 0:07:14.200 --> 0:07:18.440 the right policy in an opening economy. Uh, come August. 0:07:19.720 --> 0:07:22.120 So I wonder if there's a happy medium, because specifically 0:07:22.160 --> 0:07:24.320 I'm talking about the services industry, because if you're a 0:07:24.320 --> 0:07:26.280 waiter and you're going back and you work on tips, 0:07:26.320 --> 0:07:27.760 you're not going to be getting back to where you 0:07:27.800 --> 0:07:29.840 were pre COVID, So your tips might go from a 0:07:29.920 --> 0:07:31.640 hundred dollars a day of fifty dollars a day, so 0:07:31.680 --> 0:07:34.360 you're losing that money. Would you think about an income 0:07:34.400 --> 0:07:37.400 subsidy for example, like France is doing. President at Cross 0:07:37.440 --> 0:07:40.320 has something very similar today, working with unions to help 0:07:40.320 --> 0:07:42.800 subsidize work or pay for it to compensate from the 0:07:42.880 --> 0:07:46.960 loss they're missing. Can you do that well? Uh. Something 0:07:47.000 --> 0:07:49.920 that we already have is what we call a short 0:07:49.960 --> 0:07:53.920 time compensation. The idea is that a workforce can be 0:07:54.000 --> 0:07:57.080 brought back, but maybe not all work full time. They've 0:07:57.120 --> 0:07:59.040 they're brought back on a part time basis, and they 0:07:59.080 --> 0:08:03.880 get a blend of pay and unemployment benefits. That's that's 0:08:03.920 --> 0:08:07.000 being done some now, and I think that's that's a 0:08:07.080 --> 0:08:11.280 concept to look look at. Obviously, we have UH continuing 0:08:11.320 --> 0:08:14.480 state unemployment benefits are available, and we'll take a look 0:08:14.520 --> 0:08:18.640 at whether there are any federal approaches that remain necessary. 0:08:18.640 --> 0:08:20.880 But you have that state benefit, you have the opportunity 0:08:20.920 --> 0:08:23.760 for a short time compensation. And we're focused most of 0:08:23.760 --> 0:08:27.080 all on growing the economy again, on creating those jobs. 0:08:27.400 --> 0:08:30.960 The President did such an extraordinary job of that up 0:08:31.040 --> 0:08:34.079 until the virus came. We have no reason to think 0:08:34.120 --> 0:08:38.200 that the economic fundamentals of UH the country are substantially 0:08:38.200 --> 0:08:40.560 different when they were just a few months ago. So 0:08:40.679 --> 0:08:44.960 I'm most focused now on reinforcing the policies that lead 0:08:45.040 --> 0:08:47.679 to record job creation and getting people back to work, 0:08:48.520 --> 0:08:52.840 rather than UM focusing so intently on the unemployment system itself. 0:08:56.320 --> 0:08:58.440 It's a secretary. There are large parts of the United 0:08:58.480 --> 0:09:03.840 States where the hospitalization count is now rising and rising dramatically. 0:09:04.520 --> 0:09:07.480 We're saying it in Texas, We're seeing it's in Florida, 0:09:07.559 --> 0:09:12.160 We're seeing it in California. Did these places reopened too quickly? 0:09:12.679 --> 0:09:16.120 Is there too much emphasis being placed on reopening the 0:09:16.160 --> 0:09:21.440 economy at this point at the expense potentially of public health? Well, guy, 0:09:21.440 --> 0:09:22.880 I don't think it's quite right to say that there 0:09:22.880 --> 0:09:26.240 are large parts of the country that are seeing these 0:09:26.280 --> 0:09:28.360 flare ups, but we are we are seeing some flare 0:09:28.440 --> 0:09:32.600 ups in parts of large states and it certainly has 0:09:32.640 --> 0:09:35.880 to be and is being taken seriously. No, we did 0:09:35.920 --> 0:09:40.480 not reopen too early. We knew that as we opened, UH, 0:09:40.520 --> 0:09:44.000 that there would be some increased cases. We know far 0:09:44.120 --> 0:09:46.800 better now how to deal with this virus than we 0:09:46.840 --> 0:09:49.360 did two three months ago, and we have a much 0:09:49.400 --> 0:09:53.000 greater capability to address it in terms of the tests 0:09:53.040 --> 0:09:57.000 that are available, ventilator capacity and all of that. So 0:09:57.559 --> 0:09:59.640 these are these flare ups are serious matters to take 0:09:59.640 --> 0:10:03.360 a look at, uh, the viruses out there. Americans do 0:10:03.480 --> 0:10:06.760 need to continue to exercise discipline so that we can 0:10:06.920 --> 0:10:09.960 stay open um. But you look across the country as 0:10:10.000 --> 0:10:12.960 a whole. The reopening is going well, it's going safely, 0:10:13.440 --> 0:10:15.439 but we will continue to focus on these flare ups 0:10:15.480 --> 0:10:19.760 as they occur. Mr. Secretary, It's it's really hard to 0:10:19.800 --> 0:10:23.199 agree with you on that though. When you have Texas, California, 0:10:23.240 --> 0:10:26.800 and Florida, I mean Texas suspended all elective surgeries. They're 0:10:26.800 --> 0:10:29.960 looking at reaching hospital big capacity in certain areas, and 0:10:30.000 --> 0:10:33.080 Houston is a huge medical center and they're having some 0:10:33.160 --> 0:10:37.000 serious problems. Uh. The government seems to no longer have 0:10:37.080 --> 0:10:39.920 control over shutdowns or not. If I'm living in Houston, 0:10:40.000 --> 0:10:42.640 I'm probably not leaving my house and I'm not going shopping. 0:10:42.720 --> 0:10:45.440 So how does that then trickle through to the labor market. 0:10:45.480 --> 0:10:47.880 You're going to have more layoffs potentially, or second round 0:10:47.960 --> 0:10:51.000 layoffs just because people just want to stay home themselves, 0:10:51.040 --> 0:10:56.560 because these are huge states with a huge rising cases. Well, Alex, 0:10:57.200 --> 0:11:00.080 I gotta disagree with you. I think you're these are 0:11:00.160 --> 0:11:04.520 ups are serious. I think you're exaggerating the current situation. 0:11:04.600 --> 0:11:07.680 That local authorities are well aware of it, they're looking 0:11:07.679 --> 0:11:12.240 to address it. We here uh in the administration are 0:11:12.280 --> 0:11:15.200 in contact with them and looking for ways to help. 0:11:15.240 --> 0:11:17.920 But again, you look across the country as a whole. Uh, 0:11:17.960 --> 0:11:22.240 the reopening has gone very successfully, and uh what's happening 0:11:22.280 --> 0:11:26.680 in these specific locations is a reminder of the importance 0:11:26.720 --> 0:11:30.000 of discipline, of being careful about the virus that it's 0:11:30.040 --> 0:11:32.680 still out there. It's not a judgment on the reopening 0:11:32.679 --> 0:11:38.280 as a whole. To pay it's away from what we've 0:11:38.280 --> 0:11:41.679 just been talking about. Mr Secretary UM, Let's talk a 0:11:41.720 --> 0:11:46.720 little bit about investing and how public money, public pension 0:11:46.760 --> 0:11:51.320 money via funds should be invested. You have written that 0:11:51.520 --> 0:11:56.440 the profit motive is ultimately the final arbiter of whether 0:11:56.559 --> 0:11:59.400 or not decisions should be made versus one investment, sorry, 0:11:59.640 --> 0:12:03.880 versus another investment. Why is impact investing wrong? Why is 0:12:03.960 --> 0:12:07.320 E s G investing wrong? Particularly at a time when 0:12:07.320 --> 0:12:11.080 we see such need for changes in the way we 0:12:11.080 --> 0:12:14.760 approach the climates and changes in the way we approach society. 0:12:14.840 --> 0:12:20.760 We started this conversation talking about black lives matter. Well, guys, 0:12:21.000 --> 0:12:23.640 you're referring to a rule that the Labor Department put 0:12:23.679 --> 0:12:27.800 out earlier this week regarding so called E s G 0:12:27.960 --> 0:12:32.280 investing in in the context of of a private pension 0:12:32.280 --> 0:12:35.960 plans here in the U s and uh Uh Obviously 0:12:36.040 --> 0:12:40.440 people uh like the opportunity to, as I put it 0:12:40.440 --> 0:12:42.960 in an op ed, I wrote, to do good while 0:12:43.000 --> 0:12:46.360 also doing well financially. But some questions certainly have been 0:12:46.440 --> 0:12:49.040 raised about some of the E s G rating systems 0:12:49.040 --> 0:12:52.880 out there. How reliable thorough are they really? You see 0:12:52.880 --> 0:12:56.600 systems that uh, one rating is high for a company, 0:12:56.600 --> 0:12:59.680 another rating system rates it low. There have been questions 0:12:59.760 --> 0:13:03.120 raised by the SEC about how some of these funds 0:13:03.120 --> 0:13:07.560 are are being promoted. That the key under our law 0:13:07.679 --> 0:13:10.800 for pension plans is simply that pension plans are to 0:13:10.840 --> 0:13:15.480 be managed with one goal. That's maximizing Americans retirement savings. 0:13:15.679 --> 0:13:19.400 That's a really, really good social objective. It shouldn't be 0:13:19.440 --> 0:13:25.760 compromised by fiduciaries to those retirees who are pursuing political 0:13:25.920 --> 0:13:29.360 ends that cost those retirees money. That's what our proposed 0:13:29.440 --> 0:13:35.439 rule addresses. Okay, interesting in the light of what the 0:13:35.440 --> 0:13:38.200 business round table is kind of moving towards. But we 0:13:38.280 --> 0:13:41.320 have to leave the conversation that Mrs Secretary, thank you 0:13:41.400 --> 0:13:45.720 very much. Indeed, Eugene Scalia, the US Labor Secretary. This 0:13:47.240 --> 0:13:50.200 that was US Labor Secretary Eugene Scalia speaking with Bloomberg 0:13:50.200 --> 0:13:52.720 anchors Alex Steel and Guy Johnson on a wide reaching 0:13:52.760 --> 0:13:56.080 conversation from all things from the pandemic and the impact 0:13:56.080 --> 0:13:59.760 on the economy to the current state of the jobs market. Again, 0:13:59.800 --> 0:14:01.600 we had jobs claims today came in a little bit 0:14:01.679 --> 0:14:05.440 higher than expected, so really weighing in on the employment 0:14:05.559 --> 0:14:09.640 situation and the economic uh situation within the US. Right now, 0:14:09.679 --> 0:14:12.040 let's pivot right now and talk to our good friend 0:14:12.040 --> 0:14:15.720 Barry Ridholtz. He's found of Ridholts Wealth Management, Bloomberg opinion 0:14:15.760 --> 0:14:18.760 columnists and host of Masters of Business, Barry, what was 0:14:18.800 --> 0:14:23.120 your takeaway from the discussion with Secretary Scalia? Kind of 0:14:23.200 --> 0:14:28.760 shocking to hear the Department of Labor secretary doesn't seem 0:14:28.800 --> 0:14:31.640 to know what the word fiduciary means. I kind of 0:14:31.680 --> 0:14:35.200 had to rewind that and do a double take. His 0:14:35.200 --> 0:14:39.000 his take on e s g IS is malignantly malinformed. 0:14:39.920 --> 0:14:42.520 The data on this shows that this has performed at 0:14:42.560 --> 0:14:46.560 least as well as other actively managed accounts, especially over 0:14:46.600 --> 0:14:49.520 the past couple of years. And if people want to 0:14:49.560 --> 0:14:53.680 express their views through their portfolios, that's up to the 0:14:53.720 --> 0:14:58.760 individual investor, the fiduciary, the advisor who is working with 0:14:58.800 --> 0:15:01.280 a client their job just to put the client's best 0:15:01.320 --> 0:15:04.040 interest first. It's kind of shocked the way he spits 0:15:04.080 --> 0:15:08.600 that word out as if it was acid in his mouth. 0:15:08.800 --> 0:15:12.040 You know, the studies have shown that having non fiduciaries 0:15:12.080 --> 0:15:15.800 advise on four oh one case and other retirement accounts 0:15:16.120 --> 0:15:19.760 coasted seventeen billion dollars a year. If he's really concerned 0:15:19.800 --> 0:15:26.000 about maximizing investors retirement savings, enforce the fiduciary rule and 0:15:26.040 --> 0:15:30.400 make everybody who advises on that that account have to 0:15:30.440 --> 0:15:34.080 put the investors first. Best interest first, it's a really 0:15:34.120 --> 0:15:36.920 simple solution. I was shocked by the double talk I 0:15:37.040 --> 0:15:40.920 just heard. I mean, it's so interesting because obviously the 0:15:41.000 --> 0:15:44.320 Labor Secretary can propose whatever he wants, right Barry, But 0:15:44.560 --> 0:15:48.520 this is something that would be pretty detrimental. I think 0:15:48.560 --> 0:15:50.240 to a lot of workers out there at a time 0:15:50.240 --> 0:15:53.600 when there is, you know, a skyrocketing unempoyment rate and 0:15:53.600 --> 0:15:55.920 initiate all those kids. They just are not coming down 0:15:56.000 --> 0:15:59.120 fast enough, and so much uncertainty out there. You know. 0:15:59.360 --> 0:16:02.000 I don't to let my politics get in the way 0:16:02.200 --> 0:16:07.200 of of responding to the Labor Secretary. But I have 0:16:07.320 --> 0:16:10.880 a full dashboard of COVID nineteen data and I look 0:16:10.920 --> 0:16:13.640 at this every day, along with all the other data 0:16:13.680 --> 0:16:17.320 I run through. And I don't know if he's looking 0:16:17.320 --> 0:16:20.640 at the data, but but what we're seeing is an 0:16:20.720 --> 0:16:25.640 increase um in testing and an even larger increase in 0:16:25.640 --> 0:16:31.480 infection rate, and the whole Sun Belt is doing poorly. 0:16:31.520 --> 0:16:35.440 Look at rt dot live shows you the the are 0:16:35.560 --> 0:16:39.040 one measures of state by state. You have thirty three 0:16:39.080 --> 0:16:42.880 states that are still showing a greater contagion and the 0:16:43.120 --> 0:16:46.880 numbers going in the wrong directions. The early States, New York, 0:16:46.920 --> 0:16:51.440 New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts. Their numbers are coming down. The 0:16:51.480 --> 0:16:55.120 early infection states from international travel, mostly from Europe. But 0:16:55.360 --> 0:16:58.760 now we're seeing the states that reopened. Looks the facts 0:16:58.760 --> 0:17:01.520 are a lot of these states. It's ignored the White 0:17:01.560 --> 0:17:05.440 House guidelines, ignored the CDC guidelines. It's hard to look 0:17:05.440 --> 0:17:08.680 at the date and say this is going great. The 0:17:08.720 --> 0:17:12.560 reason the market got she lacked earlier this week, at 0:17:12.640 --> 0:17:17.199 least in some narratives tellings, is because, Jeeves, we're not 0:17:17.280 --> 0:17:19.720 even waiting for second waves. The first wave hasn't run 0:17:19.760 --> 0:17:25.240 its course, and the numbers are heading in the wrong direction. Florida, California, Texas. 0:17:25.320 --> 0:17:28.359 That those are both red, blue and purple states. The 0:17:28.480 --> 0:17:32.000 virus doesn't care about your politics. It's going to infect 0:17:32.040 --> 0:17:36.400 people when given an opportunity, and we're continuing to give 0:17:36.520 --> 0:17:40.240 COVID nineteen an opportunity to spread. We we are not 0:17:40.640 --> 0:17:45.159 doing this well compared to other countries. It's interesting. So Barry, 0:17:45.200 --> 0:17:48.160 given again, that's shlacking you mentioned earlier in this week. 0:17:48.200 --> 0:17:50.199 I agree that in large part due to some of 0:17:50.200 --> 0:17:54.159 the virus news. It seems like, you know, I'm just 0:17:54.200 --> 0:17:56.240 wondering how we play this again. I mean, is it 0:17:56.359 --> 0:17:59.280 just steady as she goes and recognize that this is 0:17:59.280 --> 0:18:02.560 probably gonna be a longer pull than maybe we had 0:18:02.600 --> 0:18:06.719 initially hoped for. So we've kind of gone full circle. 0:18:06.840 --> 0:18:09.719 The initial fear was this is a multi year process 0:18:09.840 --> 0:18:13.679 to get a treatment, get a vaccine developed her immunity 0:18:13.760 --> 0:18:16.960 where we're knowing near her community, yet you need well 0:18:17.000 --> 0:18:20.680 over people to either have a vaccine or exposure to 0:18:20.680 --> 0:18:24.840 to get that. And you know, we we kinda got 0:18:24.920 --> 0:18:29.280 very enthusiastic. There is lots and lots of positive news 0:18:29.359 --> 0:18:33.639 coming out in terms of treatment and vaccine testing and 0:18:34.160 --> 0:18:38.800 the amount of treatment we're doing. Those have been moving 0:18:38.840 --> 0:18:43.720 in the right direction, but they are also being confronted 0:18:43.880 --> 0:18:48.240 by a lot of um let's call it lazy and 0:18:48.440 --> 0:18:51.560 unfocused behavior that can lead to the spread of this 0:18:52.119 --> 0:18:55.040 That The other factor that I think is important from 0:18:55.040 --> 0:18:59.960 a market perspective, not from how rapidly we're spreading the disease, 0:19:00.119 --> 0:19:05.240 is is simply at a certain point, markets and investors 0:19:05.320 --> 0:19:08.960 lose their ability to get shocked and and and once 0:19:09.000 --> 0:19:13.520 you cross a World War two number of American deaths, 0:19:14.440 --> 0:19:17.919 you know a lot of the horrific, stunning shock of 0:19:18.000 --> 0:19:22.200 that you become somewhat in order to it and so hey, 0:19:22.240 --> 0:19:24.639 the good news is the death rate is going down, 0:19:25.359 --> 0:19:28.439 partly because a lot of the spread of COVID is 0:19:28.480 --> 0:19:32.480 taking place amongst the younger and younger. The average age 0:19:32.480 --> 0:19:36.080 of infection is going lower. Um, but that's still dangerous. 0:19:36.080 --> 0:19:38.440 And you're remember you're always on a two to three 0:19:38.480 --> 0:19:42.960 week lag from testing to infection to mortality. Well, and 0:19:43.160 --> 0:19:45.680 it's going down for now. But we're hearing today that 0:19:45.840 --> 0:19:48.800 you know, Texas is overwhelmed and even the governor is 0:19:48.840 --> 0:19:53.119 coming out saying you're sweeping problem Houston. Yeah, exactly. And 0:19:53.400 --> 0:19:55.919 you know, obviously with people on ventilator is you know, 0:19:56.680 --> 0:19:59.480 you don't want to to forecast it, but it would 0:19:59.480 --> 0:20:02.160 seem more likely than not that there will be more 0:20:02.240 --> 0:20:06.919 deaths in Texas. Barry. You know, our market participants looking 0:20:07.040 --> 0:20:12.359 to the next presidential cycle, and are they assuming that 0:20:12.400 --> 0:20:15.040 no matter who it is, does it doesn't really matter 0:20:15.080 --> 0:20:18.400 because the federal reserve is in there and there's plenty 0:20:18.440 --> 0:20:20.600 of back stopping of this market and it won't change 0:20:20.760 --> 0:20:24.320 no matter who the next president is. That's always an 0:20:24.359 --> 0:20:27.880 interesting question. You know. The traditional wisdom has has been 0:20:27.920 --> 0:20:31.760 for a long time that markets like a divided government, 0:20:31.840 --> 0:20:35.160 one party has the Congress, the other party has the 0:20:35.160 --> 0:20:37.280 the White House, and everybody has to reach across the 0:20:37.359 --> 0:20:42.800 aisle to um to work together. UM. I think that 0:20:42.800 --> 0:20:46.000 that's sort of a glib overstatement, and we do all 0:20:46.040 --> 0:20:48.879 have a tendency to put too much emphasis on what 0:20:49.000 --> 0:20:52.280 the White House or where Congress has done. For the 0:20:52.320 --> 0:20:54.399 most part, markets are going to do what they're going 0:20:54.440 --> 0:20:56.120 to do. The economy is going to do what it's 0:20:56.160 --> 0:21:00.639 going to do. There is very little correlation between between 0:21:00.680 --> 0:21:02.560 the two. It certainly feels that way on a day 0:21:02.560 --> 0:21:07.800 to day basis. I haven't seen any indication that that 0:21:08.000 --> 0:21:12.520 the market is um is discounting one side or the 0:21:12.560 --> 0:21:16.080 other winning. Whenever I read that, it tends to be 0:21:16.200 --> 0:21:19.199 filled with people's personal bias and they take what the 0:21:19.240 --> 0:21:24.400 market is doing and somehow crafted into a narrative. UM. 0:21:24.720 --> 0:21:28.080 I had a little disagreement with my friend Jim Cramer 0:21:28.160 --> 0:21:32.040 on on Twitter yesterday who said the two percent fall 0:21:32.119 --> 0:21:36.240 in markets had to do with Biden's uh increase in 0:21:36.240 --> 0:21:41.200 in ratings. It's like, wait, this market is up while 0:21:41.200 --> 0:21:43.919 the incumbent was in free fall. Why are you picking 0:21:44.000 --> 0:21:47.720 on Wednesday as your indicator. Isn't that a little bit 0:21:47.760 --> 0:21:52.720 of a personal bias there, Jim, who I was just kidding. Barry, 0:21:53.000 --> 0:21:55.480 thank you so much. It's always great to talk to 0:21:55.520 --> 0:21:58.240 Barrier at alls, who doesn't pull us punches and always 0:21:58.240 --> 0:21:59.840 has the smart take on what's going on in the 0:21:59.840 --> 0:22:02.560 mark get and then political life and generally in investing. 0:22:02.600 --> 0:22:05.000 You don't forget to listen to his Master's in Business podcast. 0:22:05.560 --> 0:22:09.479 Just another brilliant episode week over week over week. So 0:22:09.600 --> 0:22:15.199 thank you for that very well. It is time to 0:22:15.240 --> 0:22:17.880 check in with the Bloomberg Opinion. First, I want to 0:22:18.080 --> 0:22:22.159 reiterate the Supreme Court decision that came out today bolstering 0:22:22.200 --> 0:22:24.960 the government's ability to quickly deport people who enter the 0:22:24.960 --> 0:22:28.640 country illegally. You know, it's again siding with the Trump 0:22:28.640 --> 0:22:31.960 administration on that refusal to give asylum seekers abroad right 0:22:32.040 --> 0:22:34.960 to make their case to a federal judge. So Supreme 0:22:35.000 --> 0:22:38.080 Court rules against court access for asylum seekers. It's a 0:22:38.119 --> 0:22:41.359 separate story but slightly related in that it goes to 0:22:41.400 --> 0:22:44.240 the tendency of Resident Trump to keep people out of 0:22:44.280 --> 0:22:47.600 the USA. He signed an order on Monday temporarily halting 0:22:47.640 --> 0:22:51.520 access to several employment based visas, and that affects hundreds 0:22:51.520 --> 0:22:54.520 of thousands of people seeking to work in the United States. 0:22:54.520 --> 0:22:57.320 These H one, B and H war visas used by 0:22:57.359 --> 0:22:59.560 tech workers primarily, let's bring in someone who's written a 0:22:59.560 --> 0:23:03.280 great column, honest, take him of Bloomberg opinion. Okay, why 0:23:03.680 --> 0:23:07.439 is this generally not a good idea for the United 0:23:07.480 --> 0:23:13.320 States and its productivity? So I see where Trump's trying 0:23:13.320 --> 0:23:16.439 to do what he's saying that by restricting this immigration 0:23:16.520 --> 0:23:20.000 within a free up jobs for Americans. But we're usually 0:23:20.160 --> 0:23:23.280 risking one of the most important strategic assets that the 0:23:23.359 --> 0:23:26.800 US has, which is the Silicon Valley innovation machine, which 0:23:26.880 --> 0:23:29.439 is the end of the world and it's where the 0:23:29.520 --> 0:23:33.359 most ambitious, best, brightest entrepreneurs and engineers around the world 0:23:33.840 --> 0:23:37.120 want to start their companies, which is here. And we're 0:23:37.280 --> 0:23:41.359 kind of risking this braking that we have um just needlessly. 0:23:41.560 --> 0:23:44.320 And if you look at the history of the Valley 0:23:44.520 --> 0:23:48.240 and American tech companies um, Bond, Cappell have this great 0:23:48.280 --> 0:23:52.000 slide where six of the most highly valued US tech 0:23:52.040 --> 0:23:56.080 companies were founded by either first generation second generation immigrants 0:23:56.080 --> 0:24:01.080 were talking Google, Video, Qualcom, even Apple was second generation 0:24:01.119 --> 0:24:05.880