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Speaker 1: Hello, everyone, Welcome back to the Hammer Territory podcast. In

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Speaker 1: this episode three to one, I'm your host, Brad Roman,

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Speaker 1: coming to you on a Tuesday evening here in mid January.

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Speaker 1: I'm joined as I usually am, by Scott Coleman. Scott,

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Speaker 1: nothing is happening around the Braves right now, so we're

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Speaker 1: doing a little bit of a curveball on this episode

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Speaker 1: baseball term, How are.

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Speaker 2: You hello, Brad? Maybe that's what the universe needed. We

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Speaker 2: needed you to say out loud that the Braves they

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Speaker 2: did sign Tyler Kinley over the weekend.

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Speaker 1: And we talked about it on this podcast. We did.

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Speaker 2: That was something, But it does feel like, well, timestamp this,

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Speaker 2: it's about eight o'clock Eastern on Tuesday night, that the

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Speaker 2: rest of Major League Baseball has seen some movement. Nolan

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Speaker 2: Aronado got traded. The Yankees and Marlins just pulled off

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Speaker 2: a deal. It seems like Kyle Tucker could sign for

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Speaker 2: a lot of money at any moment. Still very quiet

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Speaker 2: on the starting pitching front. I tweeted on Tuesday, I

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Speaker 2: was like, are these guys ever going to sign? Is

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Speaker 2: Framber Valdez and Ranger Swarez and Zach Gallon? Are these

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Speaker 2: guys ever going to sign a contract because pitchers and

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Speaker 2: catchers show up in like three and a half weeks

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Speaker 2: down in Florida and out in Arizona. I don't know,

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Speaker 2: Man's it's been an odd offseason, Thank goodness, the Braves

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Speaker 2: have been pretty active compared to the rest of the league,

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Speaker 2: and who knows, maybe we will will speak a transaction

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Speaker 2: into existence.

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Speaker 1: And put a bow on this offseason. Whichever team signs

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Speaker 1: those pitchers have to hope that those guys have been

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Speaker 1: throwing or with somewhat keeping themselves in shape because they're

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Speaker 1: about be a little bit of a shortened timeline. But

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Speaker 1: on the show we kind of alluded to this a

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Speaker 1: little bit in the last few weeks. We were gonna

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Speaker 1: do some of these not necessarily position previews, but like

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Speaker 1: kind of capsules to talk about some guys we haven't

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Speaker 1: talked about on the podcast a lot, because you know,

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Speaker 1: you just mentioned Spree training is getting here soon, and

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Speaker 1: we have not talked really much at all about two

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Speaker 1: players that we'll talk about today on the show. So

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Speaker 1: the plan is it's got to do kind of a

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Speaker 1: corner out, sorry, corner infield check in on the Braves,

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Speaker 1: which mostly amounts to two players. The Braves tend to

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Speaker 1: play their guys a lot in their spots. We'll see

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Speaker 1: that changes with what weiss, but Austin Rallio at third,

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Speaker 1: met Elson at first, cornerstones long. You know, they're signed

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Speaker 1: for a long time. Its supposed to be with the

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Speaker 1: kind of the core of the Braves offense and some

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Speaker 1: respects along with Ronan Kuna Junior, and it's been kind

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Speaker 1: of outside of the mind for those guys. Now obviously

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Speaker 1: the sickos. We're talking about these guys all the time,

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Speaker 1: Like Austin Rowley has been a topic this one. I'm

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Speaker 1: not saying he hasn't been, but there's not been transactions

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Speaker 1: around third base and first base, so that they kind

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Speaker 1: of go to the background. So today our goal on

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Speaker 1: this kind of standalone episode is to discuss these two

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Speaker 1: players and how they look, what last year was like,

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Speaker 1: what this year might be like, what happens if gasp,

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Speaker 1: one of them misses some time and Matt Olsen never

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Speaker 1: misses time but on Wood all those things, so we'll

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Speaker 1: get into all that. That's the plan on today's show.

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Speaker 1: Just so there's no secrets between us as friends and

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Speaker 1: podcast listeners. Scott Let's Dough Madelson. First, Medelson is the elite,

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Speaker 1: is the less complicated of the two. I love matd Olson.

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Speaker 1: He went to my high school. He's also very boring

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Speaker 1: in a good way. Would be what I would say

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Speaker 1: first thing which makes this this might be a short

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Speaker 1: conversation on some level, because Madelson is a extremely good,

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Speaker 1: b consistent, durable, et cetera. And like coming off a

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Speaker 1: very very good twenty twenty five, that's kind of the

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Speaker 1: baseline with Medlson.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think last year was clearly his second best

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Speaker 2: season with the Braves. Of course, twenty twenty three, for

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Speaker 2: basically the entire roster was the outlier. Maybe it was

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Speaker 2: just one of those special years where everybody stayed healthy.

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Speaker 2: Maybe it was one of the years where they benefited

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Speaker 2: from the juiced baseballs that everybody was hitting. It was

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Speaker 2: just kind of a magical ride in twenty three, And

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Speaker 2: I think that's pretty clearly going to be the peak

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Speaker 2: of Matt Dolson's very very good career to this point

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Speaker 2: with the Oakland and now the Braves. But I mean,

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Speaker 2: I think my biggest takeaway, can you believe this is

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Speaker 2: going to be year five of Matt Olsen in Atlanta?

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Speaker 1: Where is the time gone. It is getting fast. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's moving quickly. I have a stat that I was

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Speaker 1: going to share it later out and that's a good

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Speaker 1: time to kind of say it now. Since Matt Olsen

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Speaker 1: arrived in twenty twenty two, he is the second best

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Speaker 1: first baseman in all of baseball. Unfortunately, the first guy's

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Speaker 1: the former first basement, so that leads to Matt getting

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Speaker 1: very little credit. But I say that it's a good

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Speaker 1: breach to say Matt Olson was the best first basement

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Speaker 1: in baseball last season by basically any catch all metric

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Speaker 1: you can see fangrafts wore, Baseball Reference War, Baseball Perspectives

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Speaker 1: warp all those numbers. Matt Olsen was number one with

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Speaker 1: a bullet. He was the best player at position last year.

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Speaker 1: There was one guy, Nick Kurtz with the A's who

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Speaker 1: came up as a rookie and was incredible quietly with

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Speaker 1: a bad team in the AL On a per game

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Speaker 1: basis might have been better than mine, but on a full

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Speaker 1: season basis, he was the best playerp position. And it

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Speaker 1: was the Maddlson experience. Like the power wasn't what it

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Speaker 1: was in twenty twenty three, because like you just said,

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Speaker 1: may it never be that again, but it was still

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Speaker 1: there and he was the best defensive first baseman in

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Speaker 1: the league. He was one of the top five offensive

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Speaker 1: first baseman in the league. It was a full on

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Speaker 1: dominant star performance for Matt Olsen. And because he's because

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Speaker 1: he is boring, like he just is, can we can

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Speaker 1: be okay with that. He doesn't get the headlines that

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Speaker 1: some guys might if they do what he did last year.

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Speaker 1: And that's why we're doing this podcast in some degrees

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Speaker 1: to say, hey, by the way, Matt Olsen, nice to

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Speaker 1: have on the team. It's just nice to have that

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Speaker 1: like warm blanket at first base every day.

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Speaker 2: Boring in this case is a total compliment correct one percent,

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Speaker 2: and it's probably good over the next month as we

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Speaker 2: do these player capsules that Matt Olson is first, because

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Speaker 2: I mean he is probably the safest, most boring, again complimentary,

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Speaker 2: boring player on this entire roster.

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Speaker 1: With Olson, we know who he is.

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Speaker 2: He's thirty two years old, or will be thirty two

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Speaker 2: years old on opening Day. If you dig into Matt's

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Speaker 2: batted ball data and his bat speed and some of

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Speaker 2: the more advanced numbers, there's really nothing in his profile

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Speaker 2: even as he enters his thirties, that is concerning. Like

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Speaker 2: the bat speed is still really good. He still hits

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Speaker 2: the crap out of the ball. Sure, his home runs

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Speaker 2: are down a little bit. He had twenty nine last year,

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Speaker 2: which actually kind of feels down a little bit for Matt,

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Speaker 2: knowing the power that he has. But he does everything

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Speaker 2: else really well. He gets on base, he draws walks.

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Speaker 2: He doesn't mean he strikes out, but he doesn't strike

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Speaker 2: out at a level that's crazy for a slugging first baseman.

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Speaker 2: He's just a really well rounded ballplayer. And we've seen

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Speaker 2: Matt be a little streaky over his first four years

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Speaker 2: with the Braves, but man alive when he's hot. I mean,

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Speaker 2: Matt can single handedly carry this team on offense for

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Speaker 2: a couple weeks at the time, whenever he gets going

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Speaker 2: on one of his.

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Speaker 1: Heaters, for sure, and you know, forty four doubles. There's

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Speaker 1: still power. It's not all power is not only home runs. Actually,

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Speaker 1: it's are also power lead just like a percentage all

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Speaker 1: these things. It takes a lot of walks, yet a

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Speaker 1: basically elite walk rate last year almost thirteen percent gets

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Speaker 1: on base a lot. Yeah, that's I mean it's the

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Speaker 1: whole thing, the battle ball profile, the results. The defense

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Speaker 1: is very very good. I know it's first base, and

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Speaker 1: I love Fangrafts. They have a very harsh positional adjustment

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Speaker 1: against first basemen in their war Like even the best

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Speaker 1: players are always like adjusted down because defense is not

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Speaker 1: a big deal at first base. It's a different conversation.

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Speaker 1: But all that said, like, he basically did everything that

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Speaker 1: could post Baskin to do last season while playing every

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Speaker 1: single day, and I'm knocking on what I promise I am.

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Speaker 1: He has not missed a game in a very long time.

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Speaker 1: He has the twelfth longest consecutive game streak in the

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Speaker 1: history of Major League Baseball. He's played seven hundred and

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Speaker 1: eighty two games in counting. And maybe they'll make him

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Speaker 1: take a day off now that Snith's not the manager anymore,

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Speaker 1: But probably not, honestly, because I think that that streak

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Speaker 1: kind of matters to people at this point if he's healthy,

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Speaker 1: so the reliability of him being there, Oh, I should

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Speaker 1: say this just very plainly as well. I thought of

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Speaker 1: being the best first baseman in baseball last year. He

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Speaker 1: was the Braves' best player last year, like by a

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Speaker 1: pretty comfortable margin. Chris Sale was up there too when

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Speaker 1: he was pitching, but he missed enough time where Matt

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Speaker 1: Olsen led the team in all of the numbers. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: Ronnie was in and out. I think Ronnie is still

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Speaker 1: the best player on the team, to be clear, but

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Speaker 1: Matta's best port on the team last year and the

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Speaker 1: most valuable player on the team last year, and that

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Speaker 1: was huge. I mean, I know that season was a

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Speaker 1: lost one in every way, but it's nice to have

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Speaker 1: that guy in the middle line up.

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Speaker 2: Oh absolutely, and sometimes the best I mean being out

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Speaker 2: there every single day given all of the damn injuries

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Speaker 2: this team has had over the last couple of years.

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Speaker 1: I mean that's not a small thing.

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Speaker 2: Like it's just been really since Matt came to Atlanta,

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Speaker 2: it's been automatic. Pencil his name into the lineup, batting, second, third, fourth,

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Speaker 2: like that there is there's so much value and again

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Speaker 2: a boring but the epitome of reliable player there. And

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Speaker 2: Matt has four more years on this contract, and I

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Speaker 2: think as we sit here today, as we hit like

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Speaker 2: kind of the midway point on this deal, and then

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Speaker 2: let me ask you, Brad, would you do this contract

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Speaker 2: again if you had a crystal ball and not not

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Speaker 2: the Freddie Freeman Matt Olson thing. Again, we don't have

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Speaker 2: to need wen a conversation for the nine millionth time,

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Speaker 2: But like Freddie Freeman aside, I would do that deal

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Speaker 2: a million times out of ten compared to what the

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Speaker 2: other options were besides Freddy.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree one hundred percent. I think that the

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Speaker 1: deal looks great. The whole Fray discourse is never ending.

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Speaker 1: But one of the reasons that was a legitimate reason

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Speaker 1: why the Braves did what they did, in addition to

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Speaker 1: the Freddie drama, was that Olsen is younger and was

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Speaker 1: projecting to age probably better, and we saw that a

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Speaker 1: little bit last year. I'm not saying that Freddy's dounecase.

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Speaker 1: He's nice to really good, but part of the bet

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Speaker 1: that Braves made, whether it was right or not, was

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Speaker 1: that at the end the last few years, Olson would

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Speaker 1: be better, and that was the case last year. So

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Speaker 1: we'll see it. That comes to fruition. A couple of

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Speaker 1: quick things you mentioned in the contract. He has some

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Speaker 1: on year and then off year history. I don't think

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Speaker 1: this is like necessarily predictive. I'm not someone who would

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Speaker 1: buy into is like the reality that he's suddenly just

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Speaker 1: better in an odd number of season Like that doesn't

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Speaker 1: make sense to me, but it has happened in his career.

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Speaker 1: He's kind of been like great to good to great

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Speaker 1: to good in back. He's still been good when he's

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Speaker 1: had those off seasons. But we are if you follow that,

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Speaker 1: he'd be in a more like a pretty good year,

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Speaker 1: not a great year. And for instance, I wrote down

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Speaker 1: in our notes here, I'll just say this, if he's

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Speaker 1: the guy he wasn't twenty twenty four, he's still a

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Speaker 1: good player. Last year was a great player, and that

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Speaker 1: that that that difference does matter. So no one's worried

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Speaker 1: about Matt on this podcast. I don't think. I don't

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Speaker 1: speak for you, but I think there is a difference

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Speaker 1: between what he was two years ago and what he

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Speaker 1: was last year. And the Braves are hoping for, you know,

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Speaker 1: twenty threes. Put that out, put that out of your mind.

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Speaker 1: I would say twenty five is what you're hope before

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Speaker 1: for metals a nice and well rounded four or five

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Speaker 1: win season, And that gap is meaningful, even if it's

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Speaker 1: like not necessarily easy to predict which one of those

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Speaker 1: players are going to get I suppose and.

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Speaker 2: I'm really curious to know what kind of lineup Weiss

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Speaker 2: is going to draw up. But I think too there's

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Speaker 2: a chance that Matt, depending on where Weiss ultimately bats

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Speaker 2: him in the order, he might have more protection than

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Speaker 2: he's had in recent years. And if Drake Baldwin has

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Speaker 2: another good year, and if Austin Riley can stay healthy

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Speaker 2: and bounce back, and we're going to talk about Austin

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Speaker 2: here in a minute, and the importance of Austin Riley,

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Speaker 2: I mean, maybe they move Matt up in the order

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Speaker 2: and like Jerks and Profar, bats behind him as a

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Speaker 2: switch hitter, like they're I think the one through five

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Speaker 2: in this order is very interchangeable. And maybe if they

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Speaker 2: get Matt with a hitter behind him, I mean, heck,

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Speaker 2: it might be Ronaldcacune Junior might be hitting behind Matt Olsen.

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Speaker 1: Depending on how.

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Speaker 2: Weiss wants to ultimately do this, I think there's a

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Speaker 2: chance that Matt again probably won't hit the highs of

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty three, where I believe he finished fourth in

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Speaker 2: MVP voting. But like you said, man, take if I

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Speaker 2: could just copy paste twenty twenty five and move it

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Speaker 2: over to this year, I take it all day long,

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Speaker 2: and hopefully he shows even a little more power than

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Speaker 2: last year, drives in a million runs, and just becomes

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Speaker 2: the Matt Olson that we've really known to come and

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Speaker 2: enjoy ever since he came over a couple of years ago.

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Speaker 1: And quickly this may not matter. I hope it doesn't matter,

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Speaker 1: but we'll do this on all these little capsules. Okay,

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Speaker 1: let's say madd Olson gets hurt for a little while.

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Speaker 1: What happens, And that question is not about Matt Olsen,

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Speaker 1: but it's about what has it's related to him. You

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Speaker 1: mentioned Jerks and Profar. I think what the Braves would

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Speaker 1: probably do, and no one has said this because they

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Speaker 1: haven't had this issue for a long time. That's been healthy.

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Speaker 1: I think if Matt was gone for like more than

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Speaker 1: a week, I would probably want to see Jerks and

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Speaker 1: Profar play first base. And I say that because Profar

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Speaker 1: has played there before. He's also a terrible outfielder if

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Speaker 1: we're being one hundred percent honest about that, defensively, and

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Speaker 1: the bat's so good that you want him in the

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Speaker 1: line up. Those three things, like the insurance policy on

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Speaker 1: Medilson last year was Marcelo Zuna. Marcel Zuna was the

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Speaker 1: backup first baseman. It didn't matter because he never had

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Speaker 1: to play there. But that's it's very similar to what

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Speaker 1: I think would happen if Matt went down. Now do

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Speaker 1: you agree with that or is there something I'm missing,

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Speaker 1: because like I'm sure, for instance, on the Braves depth

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Speaker 1: chart on their official website, it's actually Riley, which is

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Speaker 1: it could be Riley. They they can play Rioyt first

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Speaker 1: space if they wanted to play du Bondet third and

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Speaker 1: Riot first, I wouldn't hate that, but I think it

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Speaker 1: would just be cleaner to play Profar first because Riley

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Speaker 1: Riley's defensive thirds. We'll talk about that later probably, but

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Speaker 1: I don't know what happens in this hopefully extremely unlikely scenario. Scott,

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Speaker 1: would it be Profar? Maybe? I think so.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I think putting Profar there is by far

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Speaker 2: the cleanest situation. I mean, knock on wood, I mean,

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Speaker 2: unless the Braves had more injuries in the outfield where

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Speaker 2: they kind of needed Profar out of here in necessity.

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Speaker 2: But I mean, truthfully, if they have multiple injuries in

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Speaker 2: the outfield and Matt Olsen is hurt.

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Speaker 1: Well see in twenty twenty seven, so well yeah. And

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Speaker 1: also you don't want Marisio to bond to play first base.

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Speaker 1: But if Matt like twists an ankle for two days,

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Speaker 1: you could play to mind a first base too, like

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Speaker 1: he'd be great there. It wouldn't be no problem whatsoever.

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Speaker 1: So like the short term versus the long term, God

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Speaker 1: forbid man has a long term injury, I think it

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Speaker 1: would probably be profar. But I always wanted to ask

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Speaker 1: the question. We'll ask about Austin later on the podcast,

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Speaker 1: but that's one thing, last thing, so we can get

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Speaker 1: to Austin because it's more interesting. Honestly, right now, the

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Speaker 1: Brads are projected to be fourth best in baseball my

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Speaker 1: fan grafts and their depth charts projections at first base.

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Speaker 1: That is almost entirely about Medelson being a great player.

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Speaker 1: They're behind the Blue Jays, which is vladimirker roaw junior

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Speaker 1: awesome player. They're behind the A's which is Nick Kurks,

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Speaker 1: who had the awesome season last year. And they're behind

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Speaker 1: the Phillies, which is Bryce Harper, a Hall of Fame player.

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Speaker 1: I think I probably take Olsen over Harper, to be

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Speaker 1: honest with you, but regardless, that's the classic player you're

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Speaker 1: talking about and the position, the first base that the

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Speaker 1: Braves had, that stability, projectability, all those things. So Medlson

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Speaker 1: equals good. We could leave it there. If you want to,

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Speaker 1: Scott any want to about Menulson.

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Speaker 2: I would still take him age performance, everything can considered.

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Speaker 2: I would take Matt as the best first baseman in

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Speaker 2: the National League, maybe all of baseball.

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Speaker 1: I think I'm with you. If you gave me my

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Speaker 1: choice of one player to pick, I think I might

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Speaker 1: go with Matt. And I'm sure there'll be Freddy fans

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Speaker 1: that will yell Freddie and Bryce Harper fans that we

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Speaker 1: all I get it. Those guys have real cases too.

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Speaker 1: Matt Olsen's really good, Yeah, really really good and sometimes

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Speaker 1: great year.

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Speaker 2: We said we weren't doing it. One thing that we

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Speaker 2: have to say. Matt Olson a plus teammate, a plus dude.

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Speaker 2: But I'm not making one stink ever ever about the

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Speaker 2: Freddie Freeman stuff. This guy could have been like, w TF,

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Speaker 2: why are we?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's crazy how much how much heat he gets

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Speaker 1: for a guy who's been nothing but awesome with the Braves. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: and to your point, Yeah, to your point, a guy

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Speaker 1: that everybody loves, never heard a single bad word about him,

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Speaker 1: and I would say that whether he went to my

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Speaker 1: high school or not, that's that's been beloved for a

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Speaker 1: long time here in Atlanta. So we'll leave it there.

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Speaker 1: In the moments, we'll talk about Austin Riley, and there's

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Speaker 1: a lot to get to with Austin Riley, but it's

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Speaker 1: coming up after a word from our sponsors. Okay, Scott.

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Speaker 1: Austin rally has a lot more nuance than Matt Olson

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Speaker 1: as far as the preview review capsule is concerned, because

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Speaker 1: Matt has been like just good, you know, stability, durability,

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Speaker 1: all those things. Austin is coming off. We can be

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Speaker 1: honest about it. His worst season that he broke out

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty one, like pretty clearly injuries, yes, performance

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Speaker 1: he had the as a reminder, the season ending core

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Speaker 1: injury surgery back in August. He hit the IL in

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Speaker 1: July with what the Braves called his strained abdomen. He

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Speaker 1: came back about two and a half weeks later, was

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Speaker 1: terrible for about two or three weeks, and then was

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Speaker 1: out again for the rest of the year. So basically from

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Speaker 1: the middle of July on he was either gone or

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Speaker 1: a shell of himself. That's worth keeping in mind. When

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Speaker 1: the surgery happened, the messaging was then they he'd be

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Speaker 1: ready for spring training. That's what the Braves said and

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Speaker 1: their releases, all that stuff. No one said otherwise. I

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Speaker 1: assume that it's a good thing. Is that the read

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Speaker 1: you're making as well about Austin's health, we won't know

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Speaker 1: untill they arrive, until they arrive in Florida, but I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna guess he's probably on track. It's been suspiciously quiet,

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Speaker 1: I would say, yeah, not a bad way, just one

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Speaker 1: of those, one of those things.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if we've gotten a single Austin Riley

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Speaker 2: update health of all winter long.

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Speaker 1: And that's good, Like, that's good thing.

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Speaker 2: Man. We don't want Alex coming out and going well.

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Speaker 2: Austin was still feeling something, so he's undergoing another like

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Speaker 2: that would have been terrible. So yeah, no news is

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Speaker 2: good news. I'm guessing Austin will show up to camp

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Speaker 2: in February in good shape and hopefully ready to put

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Speaker 2: a couple of injury riddled seasons behind him.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so we'll just say he struggled when he played

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Speaker 1: last year too. I've seen people not not dismissing it,

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Speaker 1: but like, hey, he was just hurt. Well he was,

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Speaker 1: but he also wasn't very good. He wasn't terrible or anything.

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Speaker 1: But Austin Rally finished the season with a one to

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Speaker 1: three WRC plus in four hundred and forty seven played appearances.

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Speaker 1: That's not what you need from Austin Rally, I think everyone,

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Speaker 1: and probably he would certainly admit that himself. His OBP

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Speaker 1: was way down, his isopower was way down to a

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Speaker 1: career low. It struck out rate was up to almost

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Speaker 1: twenty nine percent. That was his highest sence. He was

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Speaker 1: a rookie. This is a theme. By the way, He's

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Speaker 1: always had swing and miss stuff, but he like whiffed

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Speaker 1: more than usual, which is not what you want to see.

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Speaker 1: His walk rate was down. Everything you would look for

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Speaker 1: with Austin Riley was not going in the right direction

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Speaker 1: last year, injury or not. And the only I mean

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Speaker 1: usually Austin which met also being coast streaky. Austin's famously streaky.

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Speaker 1: And it never came. The hot tret never came last year.

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Speaker 1: Maybe it would come in August, We'll never know, but

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Speaker 1: it didn't come. And I could make a positive case

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Speaker 1: for you based on that speed still being there all

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Speaker 1: these things that like he's gonna be fine, and he

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Speaker 1: is younger than Matt, but we got to be honest, man, like,

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Speaker 1: it's not been what the bravest bargained for for two

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Speaker 1: years now, and oh, we'll get into the contract and

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Speaker 1: that stuff matters too, but it's now been two full

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Speaker 1: seasons where he has a one to ten WRC plus

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Speaker 1: and again, not a bad player, but not a star player.

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Speaker 1: And the Braves were banking on hoping building around Austin

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Speaker 1: Raley being a star player and that player has not

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Speaker 1: been around for two years.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, there's not a player on this roster

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Speaker 2: other than Ronald Acunye Junior staying healthy who is going

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Speaker 2: to have a greater impact on the overall offensive success

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Speaker 2: of this team this upcoming year than Austin Riley.

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Speaker 1: The Braves need him to be better. They pay him

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Speaker 1: like a superstar.

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Speaker 2: We have seen him play like a superstar, but objectively,

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Speaker 2: he has not been anywhere near good enough the last

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Speaker 2: two seasons. In Shure injuries are part of it. If

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Speaker 2: you're looking for an optimist side, Austin was supremely healthy

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Speaker 2: in the early days of his career, like very healthy,

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Speaker 2: almost Mattalson like how he would go out there all

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Speaker 2: the time and play every inning of every game. And

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Speaker 2: in twenty four him breaking his hand on a one

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Speaker 2: hundred and one mile in our fastball not his.

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Speaker 1: Fault, Like that's gonna happen.

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Speaker 2: Sadly last year, core muscle injury along with other things

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Speaker 2: not what you want to see. But again I think,

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Speaker 2: I mean Austin's in great shape. I think he actually

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Speaker 2: leaned out last year. I remember on the first week

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Speaker 2: or two of the season, I was like, wow, I

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Speaker 2: think Austin has like fully lost some of his baby

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Speaker 2: weight and like looked really lean and athletic and in

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Speaker 2: good shape. And again the core muscle, it is what

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Speaker 2: it is. But we need Austin to be healthy and

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Speaker 2: we need him to produce, because if we want to

430
00:20:25,280 --> 00:20:27,960
Speaker 2: talk about getting this Braves line up to being top five,

431
00:20:28,359 --> 00:20:31,439
Speaker 2: top eight in the league, it's hard for me to

432
00:20:31,520 --> 00:20:35,639
Speaker 2: envision that if Austin Riley has yet another by his standards,

433
00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:36,640
Speaker 2: mediocre year.

434
00:20:38,040 --> 00:20:41,200
Speaker 1: I agree, I mean it's one player he's not. There

435
00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:44,600
Speaker 1: is a world in which Austin is not very good

436
00:20:44,880 --> 00:20:49,240
Speaker 1: and this team is still really good. That's possible, likely,

437
00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:52,479
Speaker 1: maybe not. There's a one of which Austin's really good

438
00:20:52,520 --> 00:20:55,600
Speaker 1: and the team struggles. That's all possible. But yeah, those

439
00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:57,480
Speaker 1: things are very heavily correlated, and they would be for

440
00:20:57,520 --> 00:21:00,720
Speaker 1: any star player or any hopefully star player. But I

441
00:21:00,720 --> 00:21:02,720
Speaker 1: don't think it's a coincidence that the Braves have had

442
00:21:03,440 --> 00:21:06,199
Speaker 1: some of their team issues the last two years with

443
00:21:06,280 --> 00:21:08,560
Speaker 1: Austin doing what he's done, which is not very much.

444
00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:10,520
Speaker 1: And I'm not putting it on him. It's not only

445
00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:13,399
Speaker 1: on him by in any means, to be very very clear,

446
00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:16,000
Speaker 1: but he is maybe the representation of it as far

447
00:21:16,040 --> 00:21:18,080
Speaker 1: as a player for him. There's other stuff too, Ronnie

448
00:21:18,080 --> 00:21:21,199
Speaker 1: getting injured, all that stuff matters, but Austin's been the

449
00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:23,720
Speaker 1: one star who has been not kind of what he

450
00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:26,320
Speaker 1: was supposed to be the last couple of years. And

451
00:21:26,359 --> 00:21:29,760
Speaker 1: the secondary I don't not really referring to Michael Harris,

452
00:21:29,760 --> 00:21:32,960
Speaker 1: Ozzy Alby's as stars. I'm referring to the stars are Ronnie,

453
00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:36,879
Speaker 1: Matt and Austin. In my opinion, maybe Baldwoman joined that

454
00:21:36,880 --> 00:21:38,960
Speaker 1: group this year, he was then that group last year.

455
00:21:39,720 --> 00:21:41,439
Speaker 1: I'm not going to quite annoint Drake Baldwin is a

456
00:21:41,480 --> 00:21:44,199
Speaker 1: star just yet. Maybe he will be very very very

457
00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:47,000
Speaker 1: very impossible. There are three guys who the Braves are

458
00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:50,119
Speaker 1: paying and invested in the offensive stars, and they are Ronald,

459
00:21:50,240 --> 00:21:54,680
Speaker 1: Matt and Austin. And to say that the last two seasons,

460
00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:57,840
Speaker 1: this is my fan grafts, the Braves are eight Sorry,

461
00:21:58,080 --> 00:22:03,240
Speaker 1: Riley is eighteenth among primary third basemen in fangrafts war

462
00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:07,240
Speaker 1: over the last two years. That can't happen. I mean,

463
00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:10,719
Speaker 1: he has to be not number one. I'm not say

464
00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:12,439
Speaker 1: he has to be the best best third basement of baseball.

465
00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:14,240
Speaker 1: He doesn't have to be that, but he can't be

466
00:22:14,280 --> 00:22:16,320
Speaker 1: a blow average starter at third base. That's not going

467
00:22:16,359 --> 00:22:18,000
Speaker 1: to work for anybody. I think they all know that

468
00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:20,520
Speaker 1: the injuries do hurt that a little bit. He's played,

469
00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:23,400
Speaker 1: he's missing games. But even if you take the injuries

470
00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:26,960
Speaker 1: out of it and say, okay, WRC plus a offensive

471
00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:28,840
Speaker 1: metric is not related and not related to your game

472
00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:32,119
Speaker 1: is played, he's thirteenth among third basement in WRC plus.

473
00:22:33,000 --> 00:22:35,639
Speaker 1: That isn't good enough either. Because Austin's glove has always

474
00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:40,359
Speaker 1: been controversial. I remember vividly some of the some of

475
00:22:40,400 --> 00:22:45,720
Speaker 1: the i'll say propaganda that was shared over the over

476
00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:49,080
Speaker 1: the airways about Austin's defense a few years ago, comparing

477
00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:51,200
Speaker 1: him to certain players he should not be compared to defensively,

478
00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:55,200
Speaker 1: allus Hale. He's not terrible, but he's not a great

479
00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:57,040
Speaker 1: defensive third baseman. I think we can probably agree on

480
00:22:57,080 --> 00:23:00,320
Speaker 1: that he's getting paid to hit, like he can be

481
00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:02,920
Speaker 1: honest about that, and he's not hitting the last two

482
00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:06,920
Speaker 1: years so and the three year Okay, I'm gonna throw

483
00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:08,119
Speaker 1: this to you in a second when it comes to

484
00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:10,840
Speaker 1: the contract, because that's part of this. I'm not saying

485
00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:13,879
Speaker 1: that matters everything, but when you have the biggest contract

486
00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:16,080
Speaker 1: in the NTAM mystery, it becomes a talking point, particularly

487
00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:19,359
Speaker 1: when you don't perform before that. Though the three years

488
00:23:19,640 --> 00:23:22,840
Speaker 1: prior to the last two, so his three year star

489
00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:27,479
Speaker 1: breakout peak twenty one through twenty three, he was a

490
00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:30,880
Speaker 1: top five third baseman in the sport for three years

491
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:34,280
Speaker 1: and that is what, not necessarily what he has to be.

492
00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:37,160
Speaker 1: But it really is interesting and he's actually he's much

493
00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:40,600
Speaker 1: younger than that. He turns twenty nine in April. He's

494
00:23:40,600 --> 00:23:42,880
Speaker 1: a bulky guy. Like there was always talk like maybe

495
00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:45,040
Speaker 1: maybe have to play first base at some point that

496
00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:46,560
Speaker 1: was kind of out there. Maybe he's a DH at

497
00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:48,399
Speaker 1: some point because of his body type, and I get

498
00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:50,920
Speaker 1: all that. You're right though he did slim down. He's

499
00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:53,080
Speaker 1: a pretty good athlete for his size all that stuff,

500
00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:57,040
Speaker 1: But it just questions we have to answer. And I mean,

501
00:23:57,040 --> 00:23:59,080
Speaker 1: do you want to talk about the contract, because it's something

502
00:23:59,080 --> 00:24:01,400
Speaker 1: we have to It's a stand alone topic on Austin rally.

503
00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:05,480
Speaker 1: It has to come up because of the length more

504
00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:08,000
Speaker 1: than anything. That's the jarring thing that's got the kind

505
00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:10,560
Speaker 1: of the jump scare for me before I throw it

506
00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:12,760
Speaker 1: to you on the contract is the length that's still

507
00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:16,000
Speaker 1: remaining to the point where if he's the guy he's

508
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:19,080
Speaker 1: been the last two years, it's not gonna be good

509
00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:23,000
Speaker 1: for the Braves. So part of this bounce back is like, yeah,

510
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:24,919
Speaker 1: we wanted to win a twenty twenty six, but they

511
00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:27,600
Speaker 1: also need for his sake, him to be better, because man,

512
00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:30,119
Speaker 1: that contract starts to look real icey if he's not.

513
00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:33,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean a lot of money and a lot

514
00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:37,439
Speaker 2: of years left on that biggest contract in franchise history.

515
00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:40,120
Speaker 2: And I truly believe, like if I had to put

516
00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:43,480
Speaker 2: money on, do I think Austin Riley bounces back this

517
00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:48,000
Speaker 2: upcoming year? Yes, Like confidently I would say yes, Let's

518
00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:50,840
Speaker 2: hope that he's healthy, but I think you feel the

519
00:24:50,840 --> 00:24:54,359
Speaker 2: same way. But that being said, for all of the

520
00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:59,399
Speaker 2: consternation around other players on this roster, I think because

521
00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:02,720
Speaker 2: we have won to Austin Riley grow from a homegrown

522
00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:06,000
Speaker 2: prospect to a player who had some huge hits during

523
00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:09,000
Speaker 2: the World Series run and has been a really good,

524
00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:12,520
Speaker 2: low drama star level player for a lot of his career.

525
00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:16,800
Speaker 2: I think Riley sometimes gets a free pass, whether that's

526
00:25:16,880 --> 00:25:21,080
Speaker 2: fair or not. So these are the numbers since Austin

527
00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:25,159
Speaker 2: Riley signed the ten year, two hundred and twelve million

528
00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:28,320
Speaker 2: dollar deal, biggest in franchise history, at the end of

529
00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:33,320
Speaker 2: July of twenty twenty two. Okay, since then, biggest contract

530
00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:36,320
Speaker 2: for the Braves to ever give out, Austin Riley is

531
00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:41,399
Speaker 2: hitting two sixty two with a three twenty nine on

532
00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:48,080
Speaker 2: base percentage and a four to sixty five slugging percentage.

533
00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:52,960
Speaker 2: That is a sub eight hundred ops bread that is

534
00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:58,520
Speaker 2: a one to sixteen WRC plus in nearly nineteen hundred

535
00:25:58,840 --> 00:26:04,760
Speaker 2: plate appearances. One step further since that time mid July

536
00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:07,879
Speaker 2: twenty twenty two, I'm sorry. End of July twenty twenty two,

537
00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:13,240
Speaker 2: there are one hundred and one qualified hitters in baseball.

538
00:26:14,480 --> 00:26:19,240
Speaker 2: Since that time, Austin Riley is tied for just forty

539
00:26:19,359 --> 00:26:23,440
Speaker 2: ninth among those one hundred and one hitters in offensive

540
00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:27,440
Speaker 2: production forty ninth in baseball out of one hundred and

541
00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:30,359
Speaker 2: one qualified players. That's not good enough. We need Austin

542
00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:32,800
Speaker 2: Riley to be better. The Braves need Austin Riley to

543
00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:34,720
Speaker 2: be better. I think Austin Riley would tell you that

544
00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:37,040
Speaker 2: Austin Riley needs to be better than that. Sure, it's

545
00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:39,919
Speaker 2: but those are the numbers man like that. That's not

546
00:26:40,040 --> 00:26:40,600
Speaker 2: good enough.

547
00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:43,840
Speaker 1: I want to rese out a little bit and just

548
00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:47,840
Speaker 1: say he doesn't have to be the guy he was

549
00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:51,119
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty three, right, he doesn't have to be that.

550
00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:54,960
Speaker 1: And on the contract front, it's a lot of money

551
00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:58,439
Speaker 1: for a lot of years. But on an annual value basis,

552
00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:02,320
Speaker 1: it's what twenty two million, Like, he's not making forty

553
00:27:02,840 --> 00:27:06,240
Speaker 1: and that does matter. It's more the length. But to

554
00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:09,160
Speaker 1: return value on twenty two million a year, the bar

555
00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:12,720
Speaker 1: is not that high. It's not right and he could

556
00:27:12,760 --> 00:27:15,159
Speaker 1: reach it because that you know, in that sample size

557
00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:17,359
Speaker 1: that you just mentioned, which is it's the right sample size?

558
00:27:17,359 --> 00:27:19,040
Speaker 1: I know it's kind an arbitrary endpoint, but it's the

559
00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:21,480
Speaker 1: contract and all that stuff. He had a really rough

560
00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:23,480
Speaker 1: end to twenty twenty two, which was part of this.

561
00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:28,080
Speaker 1: In the middle of that, in twenty twenty three, he

562
00:27:28,119 --> 00:27:32,359
Speaker 1: didn't have a Acunya or Olsen absurd season that year,

563
00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:35,159
Speaker 1: but he had a really good season, Like he was

564
00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:37,360
Speaker 1: a five win player in twenty twenty three, and that's

565
00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:40,760
Speaker 1: part of that sample size. So like, you can't ignore

566
00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:43,760
Speaker 1: the last two years, and we're not, but it's not

567
00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:46,680
Speaker 1: that far away that he was a star level guy

568
00:27:46,800 --> 00:27:51,080
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty three, and it's all he throw it

569
00:27:51,119 --> 00:27:53,240
Speaker 1: all in the mix there, and like, for instance, those

570
00:27:53,320 --> 00:27:56,320
Speaker 1: numbers you just gave since the deal happened in August,

571
00:27:56,480 --> 00:27:59,320
Speaker 1: what August one and whatever that twenty twenty two his

572
00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:01,879
Speaker 1: Zips per ject and Zips if you don't know, is

573
00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:04,200
Speaker 1: this Fangrafts projection? I think it is probably my favorite

574
00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:07,919
Speaker 1: one from dan Zeborski. Very good mind, not gospel by

575
00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:10,040
Speaker 1: any means, but it's one that people look at. Right,

576
00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:14,280
Speaker 1: his projection for twenty twenty six is almost exactly those

577
00:28:14,359 --> 00:28:17,640
Speaker 1: numbers you just read off for his last night, which

578
00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:21,600
Speaker 1: is not great, but it is like, for instance, Zips

579
00:28:21,600 --> 00:28:26,200
Speaker 1: has a two Seaxson two three, twenty five, four seventy

580
00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:30,840
Speaker 1: seven slash line, which is roughly where he was. That's

581
00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:34,680
Speaker 1: like an eight hundred ops on the nose home runs,

582
00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:38,720
Speaker 1: like mid twenties home runs. Like I'll ask you that

583
00:28:38,840 --> 00:28:40,800
Speaker 1: right now, Scott. That's better than he's been in the

584
00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:43,600
Speaker 1: last two years. If you could, if I told you

585
00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:45,480
Speaker 1: right now, you could say yes or no to him

586
00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:48,400
Speaker 1: doing exactly that, basically being like a three or four

587
00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:53,000
Speaker 1: win player eight hundred ops. Would you sign up for that?

588
00:28:53,760 --> 00:28:56,200
Speaker 1: Because I'll let you I'll let you think about it

589
00:28:56,240 --> 00:28:59,320
Speaker 1: for one more second. I think I would. I think

590
00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:01,520
Speaker 1: I would sign up for that, which is not exactly

591
00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:03,400
Speaker 1: the most ringing endorsement of Austin Rally in the world.

592
00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:05,800
Speaker 1: By the way, That's totally fine. That's a good player.

593
00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:08,440
Speaker 1: That's a three and a half four win like really

594
00:29:08,480 --> 00:29:11,680
Speaker 1: good player. And I think given what we saw the

595
00:29:11,800 --> 00:29:13,960
Speaker 1: last two years, I think I would probably just take

596
00:29:13,960 --> 00:29:15,800
Speaker 1: that and run if I was allowed to. That's not

597
00:29:15,840 --> 00:29:18,440
Speaker 1: what it used to be. But that's a good player.

598
00:29:18,840 --> 00:29:20,440
Speaker 1: What do you think if you could just say, all right,

599
00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:23,640
Speaker 1: waide magic wall on, Scott, you and Dan Zebors, you

600
00:29:23,320 --> 00:29:25,200
Speaker 1: can decide what's gonna happen this season.

601
00:29:25,760 --> 00:29:31,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, you're nay, objectively in eight hundred ops and twenty

602
00:29:31,680 --> 00:29:33,800
Speaker 2: five home runs is a good season.

603
00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:36,440
Speaker 1: But in my.

604
00:29:36,520 --> 00:29:39,160
Speaker 2: Mind, I feel like if we were talking about that

605
00:29:39,200 --> 00:29:43,160
Speaker 2: in September, I would probably feel a little underwhelmed, to

606
00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:44,640
Speaker 2: be completely.

607
00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:47,160
Speaker 1: Honest, and that's all. That's all fair. Maybe that's not.

608
00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:49,200
Speaker 2: Well, but you know what, maybe that's not fair to

609
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:51,880
Speaker 2: Austin Riley, Like maybe it's.

610
00:29:51,480 --> 00:29:55,120
Speaker 1: Probably not like, Okay, this is a true conversation I have.

611
00:29:55,640 --> 00:29:59,800
Speaker 1: I'm glad you said that because it's not Austin Riley's

612
00:29:59,800 --> 00:30:03,440
Speaker 1: faul that he signed the biggest deal I'm doing it.

613
00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:05,040
Speaker 1: If you're if you're watching on if you're not watching

614
00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:08,760
Speaker 1: on YouTube, Giant Clatition, the biggest deal in team history,

615
00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:11,080
Speaker 1: because somebody has to have that contract, right, it's the

616
00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:17,240
Speaker 1: somebody always has that contract. And his career high ops

617
00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:21,600
Speaker 1: is eight ninety eight in the season. He's never had

618
00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:25,400
Speaker 1: one of those Matt Olson, Ronaldiccunia thousand ps ridiculous seasons.

619
00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:28,680
Speaker 1: He's never done that. So like thinking he's gonna do it,

620
00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:31,440
Speaker 1: it's not necessarily fair to him because he's never done it. Yeah,

621
00:30:31,440 --> 00:30:32,920
Speaker 1: Like I'm not saying he can't do it, but he

622
00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:36,280
Speaker 1: you know, his peak was an ops in like the

623
00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:38,560
Speaker 1: high eight hundred. It's like an eight seventy eight eighty.

624
00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:41,440
Speaker 1: For that's three seasons. It's really really good. But like,

625
00:30:41,560 --> 00:30:44,680
Speaker 1: I don't think you should be thinking he's gonna do

626
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:48,560
Speaker 1: better than that. Is only gonna get older from this

627
00:30:48,600 --> 00:30:50,560
Speaker 1: point forward, and maybe you have that one year where

628
00:30:50,600 --> 00:30:54,880
Speaker 1: everything clicks like Matt's Sam podcasts, Matdelson, Mats WHA's twenty

629
00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:59,040
Speaker 1: three season. Everything clicked perfectly, and maybe I'll still had

630
00:30:59,080 --> 00:31:01,600
Speaker 1: that season at some point, but it's hard to project

631
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:05,120
Speaker 1: that when you're getting into your later stages of your career,

632
00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:07,360
Speaker 1: and Matt did at thirty two or maybe it's twenty nine, whatever,

633
00:31:07,520 --> 00:31:09,080
Speaker 1: it's rough with the same age if you want to

634
00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:12,600
Speaker 1: be positive about this. But like actually setting I'm a

635
00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:16,120
Speaker 1: big fan of setting realistic expectations for players, yeah, because

636
00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:18,240
Speaker 1: it helps to shift the kind of shape the discourse.

637
00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:22,440
Speaker 1: And I wonder if collectively people think too much of

638
00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:25,560
Speaker 1: Austin and I says you going down this rabbit hole

639
00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:27,640
Speaker 1: a little bit earlier and you didn't do it, has

640
00:31:27,680 --> 00:31:31,360
Speaker 1: he gotten enough criticism because I think the answer in

641
00:31:31,480 --> 00:31:33,480
Speaker 1: my mind is no to that question, Like if you

642
00:31:33,560 --> 00:31:36,720
Speaker 1: put all right, we'll just do this. If you put

643
00:31:36,760 --> 00:31:40,880
Speaker 1: Austin and Matt side by side, Matt's been the better

644
00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:44,720
Speaker 1: player for the last three years, three and a half years,

645
00:31:45,040 --> 00:31:48,120
Speaker 1: four years. And if you put them side by side

646
00:31:48,120 --> 00:31:50,520
Speaker 1: and say which player has gotten more heat from the

647
00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:52,800
Speaker 1: fan base, I can tell you right now it's not Austin.

648
00:31:54,200 --> 00:31:57,920
Speaker 1: So it's really interesting to like talk about it's player expectations,

649
00:31:58,320 --> 00:32:01,880
Speaker 1: performance being real. It's like this whole stew of things

650
00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:03,600
Speaker 1: that we could talk about. It's actually kind of.

651
00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:07,320
Speaker 2: Interesting, to be honest with you, it is, and expectations

652
00:32:07,320 --> 00:32:10,920
Speaker 2: are not linear across the board. Like, No, it's crazy

653
00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:13,120
Speaker 2: for me to be thinking that an eight hundred ops

654
00:32:13,160 --> 00:32:16,560
Speaker 2: this upcoming year from Austin Riley would be somewhat of

655
00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:19,440
Speaker 2: a disappointment because I think he can be more of

656
00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:23,000
Speaker 2: the eight thirty to eight sixty ops guy that he's

657
00:32:23,880 --> 00:32:26,200
Speaker 2: been known to be and is being paid to hit like.

658
00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:29,000
Speaker 2: And you know, it's crazy though, because if you told

659
00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:31,960
Speaker 2: me Ronaldcunya Junior was going to have an eight hundred ops,

660
00:32:32,520 --> 00:32:35,200
Speaker 2: that would be like a big time disappointment. But agreed,

661
00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:37,720
Speaker 2: because I ever told me that Hassan Kim was going

662
00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:39,760
Speaker 2: to have an eight hundred. Ops, I'm going to tell

663
00:32:39,760 --> 00:32:42,080
Speaker 2: you he might get down ballot MVP votes.

664
00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:45,840
Speaker 1: Like, that's it. It is truly a player. Skill sets matter,

665
00:32:45,920 --> 00:32:47,479
Speaker 1: and I just saw this guy. I want to make

666
00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:50,080
Speaker 1: sure I said this out loud. Austin Riley. In those

667
00:32:50,120 --> 00:32:55,120
Speaker 1: three seasons he finished seventh, sixth, and seventh in MVP voting.

668
00:32:56,240 --> 00:32:58,440
Speaker 1: He was top seven MVP in the National League three

669
00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:02,040
Speaker 1: consecutive seasons. Yeah. Like he's got a lot of love

670
00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:04,040
Speaker 1: and good with good recently he's been that kind of player.

671
00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:08,720
Speaker 1: But you're right, it's like, okay, which player, what was

672
00:33:08,720 --> 00:33:09,400
Speaker 1: their skill set?

673
00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:09,520
Speaker 2: Like?

674
00:33:09,600 --> 00:33:11,120
Speaker 1: Are they going to play every day? Because you know,

675
00:33:11,240 --> 00:33:14,480
Speaker 1: to rack up war you have to have played a lot.

676
00:33:14,960 --> 00:33:18,760
Speaker 1: I chose ops to build that around because that's not

677
00:33:18,800 --> 00:33:22,720
Speaker 1: taking games played into account. That's a per game average,

678
00:33:22,760 --> 00:33:25,400
Speaker 1: you know, that's it's a right stats, that's a how

679
00:33:25,560 --> 00:33:27,880
Speaker 1: how are you playing? Stat? Which I'm trying to remove

680
00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:31,160
Speaker 1: the durability factor because that matters to Let's say Austin

681
00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:34,480
Speaker 1: breaks his hand again in August, not his fault. Where

682
00:33:34,480 --> 00:33:35,959
Speaker 1: will he be at that point? It's just in it.

683
00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:38,160
Speaker 1: I don't know, man, It's it's hard to project. I

684
00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:40,360
Speaker 1: still think I come down on the side of saying yes,

685
00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:42,960
Speaker 1: eight hundred. But also I also know that I'm cold

686
00:33:42,960 --> 00:33:46,880
Speaker 1: at heart and I'm much more like not emotional about

687
00:33:46,880 --> 00:33:49,480
Speaker 1: these things, and fans have their guys. I'm like, you know,

688
00:33:49,520 --> 00:33:51,840
Speaker 1: Matt's If we're saying I have a player on the

689
00:33:51,880 --> 00:33:54,440
Speaker 1: Braves now that Charlie Morton is retired, it's probably Mattilson.

690
00:33:54,440 --> 00:33:56,920
Speaker 1: We can be honest about that. But even with Matt,

691
00:33:56,920 --> 00:33:59,800
Speaker 1: if you if you gave me like eight fifty ops,

692
00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:03,200
Speaker 1: all right, I think you got to take that. With Austin,

693
00:34:03,320 --> 00:34:04,840
Speaker 1: we've just not seen this player for two and a

694
00:34:04,840 --> 00:34:07,479
Speaker 1: half years. So if he's in there, I'll take it.

695
00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:11,160
Speaker 1: I just upside be damned, I suppose. Also it matters.

696
00:34:11,280 --> 00:34:13,600
Speaker 1: It also matters in the context of the team, because

697
00:34:13,600 --> 00:34:16,400
Speaker 1: if Austin puts up eight hundred ps, I feel pretty

698
00:34:16,400 --> 00:34:21,439
Speaker 1: good about the way the Braves set up around him. Yeah,

699
00:34:21,600 --> 00:34:24,799
Speaker 1: I assume health. Yeah, I mean they won't be the

700
00:34:24,800 --> 00:34:27,759
Speaker 1: twenty twenty three offense if he does that, probably, but

701
00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:30,640
Speaker 1: this is still a group that could be really really good.

702
00:34:30,680 --> 00:34:35,239
Speaker 1: If he is just good, not great good, I would

703
00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:37,279
Speaker 1: sign up for that. And maybe that's me being too

704
00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:39,040
Speaker 1: low on him. I've been accused of that many times

705
00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:42,080
Speaker 1: over the last half decade. That's fine, he's a good player.

706
00:34:42,120 --> 00:34:44,560
Speaker 1: I just hope he bounces back to that projection and

707
00:34:44,800 --> 00:34:47,440
Speaker 1: projections are often like kind of modest, which that I

708
00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:51,520
Speaker 1: think is, But it's which player do you believe he is?

709
00:34:51,520 --> 00:34:54,080
Speaker 1: Is he the guy from twenty twenty three or before,

710
00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:56,800
Speaker 1: or see the guy from the last twenty four months?

711
00:34:56,840 --> 00:34:59,160
Speaker 1: And I don't. I don't know the answer. I wish

712
00:34:59,239 --> 00:35:02,920
Speaker 1: I did. I think throwing those two seasons back to

713
00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:07,640
Speaker 1: back into his profile sets off some alarm bells. It

714
00:35:07,760 --> 00:35:10,040
Speaker 1: just has to, and hopefully he quiets them right away

715
00:35:10,080 --> 00:35:11,920
Speaker 1: this year. If he comes out and plays the way

716
00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:15,200
Speaker 1: he's capable of playing, this tone, next winter will be

717
00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:18,160
Speaker 1: much different. But in the meantime, there's a lot of

718
00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:21,840
Speaker 1: uncertainty that I think it's being under discussed about Riley.

719
00:35:22,160 --> 00:35:24,080
Speaker 1: I think there's an air of like, oh, it's Austro rolly,

720
00:35:24,120 --> 00:35:26,520
Speaker 1: He'll be fine. I don't know if I believe that

721
00:35:26,680 --> 00:35:29,439
Speaker 1: for sure. I think he's gonna bounce back. You said

722
00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:31,759
Speaker 1: it earlier. I agree with you. I still do believe that,

723
00:35:32,640 --> 00:35:34,640
Speaker 1: but I don't know where bounce back is, Like, I

724
00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:36,719
Speaker 1: don't I definitely would not project him to be back

725
00:35:36,760 --> 00:35:38,360
Speaker 1: to the guy who was in twenty twenty two and

726
00:35:38,440 --> 00:35:41,000
Speaker 1: twenty twenty one. He could do that, but I wouldn't

727
00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:42,560
Speaker 1: project that personally.

728
00:35:43,040 --> 00:35:46,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think two things can be true. To put

729
00:35:46,120 --> 00:35:49,920
Speaker 2: a bow on this conversation, Yep, Austin Riley is a

730
00:35:50,040 --> 00:35:52,040
Speaker 2: very very very good baseball player.

731
00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:53,560
Speaker 1: Yes, on the whole.

732
00:35:54,040 --> 00:35:57,359
Speaker 2: You take his career outcomes so far. If you would

733
00:35:57,360 --> 00:35:59,200
Speaker 2: have told us when he was starting to debut in

734
00:35:59,600 --> 00:36:02,319
Speaker 2: twenty nine, nineteen twenty twenty twenty one, if you would

735
00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:04,239
Speaker 2: tell us this is what Austin Riley's going to be,

736
00:36:04,480 --> 00:36:07,600
Speaker 2: we would have taken it a million times out of ten,

737
00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:11,680
Speaker 2: no questions asked, one hundred percent. But it is also

738
00:36:11,840 --> 00:36:15,560
Speaker 2: very fair to say that when healthy, Austin hasn't been

739
00:36:15,640 --> 00:36:18,239
Speaker 2: good enough for the last two years, and as a

740
00:36:18,520 --> 00:36:21,759
Speaker 2: high paid player on a team that's going to have

741
00:36:21,880 --> 00:36:26,799
Speaker 2: World Series aspirations, they need him to perform much more

742
00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:29,759
Speaker 2: like the guy he was from twenty twenty one through

743
00:36:29,800 --> 00:36:32,520
Speaker 2: twenty three, and not the guy even if he was

744
00:36:32,520 --> 00:36:35,400
Speaker 2: playing through some injuries. And I think for better or worse,

745
00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:38,319
Speaker 2: you know, he could have a deep philosophical debate about

746
00:36:38,360 --> 00:36:41,160
Speaker 2: that he was. But when even when he's been totally fine,

747
00:36:41,480 --> 00:36:44,319
Speaker 2: totally healthy. Austin just hasn't hit the ball the way

748
00:36:44,440 --> 00:36:46,839
Speaker 2: that we want him to hit the baseball. And I

749
00:36:46,880 --> 00:36:49,960
Speaker 2: really hope and deep down I think he's going to

750
00:36:49,960 --> 00:36:51,759
Speaker 2: get back to his ways this upcoming year.

751
00:36:53,200 --> 00:36:56,319
Speaker 1: I agree, I think I'd come back. And it's just

752
00:36:56,800 --> 00:37:00,800
Speaker 1: I find it interesting, like socioloticophal, whatever word is a

753
00:37:00,800 --> 00:37:03,120
Speaker 1: correct word on that about like why he like it

754
00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:05,319
Speaker 1: feels like no one's talking about Austin rally. I don't know.

755
00:37:06,120 --> 00:37:08,560
Speaker 1: In most markets, the guy with the biggest contract gets

756
00:37:08,600 --> 00:37:10,680
Speaker 1: the most heat, and that does not happened in Atlanta

757
00:37:10,719 --> 00:37:12,880
Speaker 1: for whatever reason. Last thing, and that I'll get you

758
00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:14,720
Speaker 1: out here, is I have Scott's got stuff to do today.

759
00:37:14,880 --> 00:37:17,480
Speaker 1: I have a Brands game. Sorry, Hawk starts like ten four.

760
00:37:17,520 --> 00:37:20,080
Speaker 1: I could talk call day Scott, but I'm just saying

761
00:37:20,040 --> 00:37:21,520
Speaker 1: I guess I have told the middle of the night

762
00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:25,359
Speaker 1: the exercise with Matt also that we did earlier about

763
00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:28,560
Speaker 1: what happens if he gets hurt? I think it's more

764
00:37:28,560 --> 00:37:31,160
Speaker 1: relevant with Austin because of his recent history and the

765
00:37:31,239 --> 00:37:34,880
Speaker 1: question is what happens if he gets hurt? Clearly they

766
00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:37,840
Speaker 1: have a super utility player this year built in and

767
00:37:37,880 --> 00:37:40,719
Speaker 1: the way they had not previously with Mauricio Dubon, he

768
00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:43,960
Speaker 1: would be involved prominently, I believe if Austin went down

769
00:37:44,000 --> 00:37:45,920
Speaker 1: for a little while. But what would you like to

770
00:37:45,920 --> 00:37:49,160
Speaker 1: see if Austin goes down and there's health elsewhere, which

771
00:37:49,200 --> 00:37:51,160
Speaker 1: obviously is hard to predict, but like, what are the

772
00:37:51,200 --> 00:37:54,000
Speaker 1: options if Austin has a two week or four week

773
00:37:54,120 --> 00:37:54,880
Speaker 1: or whatever injury.

774
00:37:55,320 --> 00:37:58,640
Speaker 2: Yep, if it was a shorter injury, I think Mauricio

775
00:37:58,719 --> 00:38:03,000
Speaker 2: Dubon is the easiest fix. You don't have to mess

776
00:38:03,040 --> 00:38:04,640
Speaker 2: up with the rest of the lineup and the rest

777
00:38:04,640 --> 00:38:07,600
Speaker 2: of the infield. You just plug in Dubon at their base.

778
00:38:07,719 --> 00:38:10,879
Speaker 2: Hopefully shortstop and second base are healthy and you don't

779
00:38:10,920 --> 00:38:14,160
Speaker 2: need to worry about losing Dubon. And then if there

780
00:38:14,200 --> 00:38:17,080
Speaker 2: was a long term injury to Riley, I do wonder

781
00:38:17,200 --> 00:38:20,799
Speaker 2: if the Braves might consider moving Hassan Kim to third

782
00:38:20,840 --> 00:38:25,839
Speaker 2: base and then having Mauricio Dubon play shortstop. The only

783
00:38:25,920 --> 00:38:29,640
Speaker 2: reason being is Dubon's a better defensive shortstop where we

784
00:38:29,719 --> 00:38:32,000
Speaker 2: expect him at this point to probably be a better

785
00:38:32,040 --> 00:38:35,640
Speaker 2: defensive shortstop than Hassan Kim, so maybe the Braves would

786
00:38:35,680 --> 00:38:38,719
Speaker 2: value his glove there. Kim has a slightly better bat,

787
00:38:38,800 --> 00:38:40,800
Speaker 2: or we expect him to have a better bat than Dubon.

788
00:38:41,160 --> 00:38:43,600
Speaker 2: Maybe you want his bat at third base. Ultimately, it

789
00:38:43,640 --> 00:38:46,200
Speaker 2: probably doesn't matter a ton, and if Riley gets hurt

790
00:38:46,280 --> 00:38:49,360
Speaker 2: yet again, the Braves are probably in some real trouble.

791
00:38:49,880 --> 00:38:52,960
Speaker 2: But I think ultimately the answer is Mauricio Dubon would

792
00:38:52,960 --> 00:38:55,719
Speaker 2: play third base, and Hassan Kim could probably play there

793
00:38:55,719 --> 00:38:57,239
Speaker 2: as well if they needed him to be there.

794
00:38:58,120 --> 00:39:00,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, Kim did play third base with the padre Is

795
00:39:00,640 --> 00:39:03,760
Speaker 1: a decent amount until about twenty twenty three. I wonder

796
00:39:03,840 --> 00:39:06,640
Speaker 1: if he personally would not love that he is in

797
00:39:06,680 --> 00:39:09,879
Speaker 1: a one year contract that was providing him to play

798
00:39:09,880 --> 00:39:12,680
Speaker 1: shortstop full time with the Braves. But he's I'm sure

799
00:39:12,719 --> 00:39:14,360
Speaker 1: he's a team player. I'm not saying you wouldn't do it,

800
00:39:14,400 --> 00:39:16,320
Speaker 1: but it's you get to it's a conversation.

801
00:39:16,800 --> 00:39:18,960
Speaker 2: For sure, you get a twenty million dollar check, you

802
00:39:19,000 --> 00:39:20,479
Speaker 2: get to tell a player a little bit.

803
00:39:20,360 --> 00:39:22,640
Speaker 1: At least what he's gonna do. I agree. And also

804
00:39:23,160 --> 00:39:25,560
Speaker 1: the bigger question is can he throw from third base?

805
00:39:25,760 --> 00:39:28,759
Speaker 1: Because Kim's got the questions about his shoulder, which we'll

806
00:39:28,760 --> 00:39:32,400
Speaker 1: see anyway, hopefully not going to be a conversation I

807
00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:33,719
Speaker 1: think it would be a good idea to get lost

808
00:39:33,719 --> 00:39:35,120
Speaker 1: in a day off every once in a while. But

809
00:39:35,239 --> 00:39:38,160
Speaker 1: if he doesn't have an injury, you don't have to

810
00:39:38,200 --> 00:39:40,120
Speaker 1: worry about it. But the Raves are better set up

811
00:39:40,160 --> 00:39:42,120
Speaker 1: death wise, they been for a while. Marster Devon is

812
00:39:42,160 --> 00:39:45,920
Speaker 1: a real guy who can play. That's helpful because beyond that,

813
00:39:46,000 --> 00:39:50,080
Speaker 1: it's like Nacho Alvarez, not something I want to do necessarily,

814
00:39:50,920 --> 00:39:54,480
Speaker 1: probably not. Profar did play there like nine years ago

815
00:39:54,520 --> 00:39:56,680
Speaker 1: in Texas when he was a shortstop and third baseman.

816
00:39:56,680 --> 00:39:58,600
Speaker 1: He was bad there and he would be terrible now

817
00:39:59,080 --> 00:40:02,040
Speaker 1: he did play there, but they might. They might have

818
00:40:02,080 --> 00:40:05,360
Speaker 1: Eli White in the spring play. Yeah, he's never done it.

819
00:40:05,400 --> 00:40:06,920
Speaker 1: I looked that up today. He's never done it, but

820
00:40:06,960 --> 00:40:08,960
Speaker 1: I think he probably could if he had to. He's

821
00:40:08,960 --> 00:40:11,120
Speaker 1: played second, you know, it's not that Yeah. Like what

822
00:40:11,239 --> 00:40:13,560
Speaker 1: I'm saying though, was like spring training. Like if there's

823
00:40:13,600 --> 00:40:17,640
Speaker 1: a spring training lineup where Eli White is playing shortstop, like, sure,

824
00:40:17,680 --> 00:40:20,160
Speaker 1: why not, let's see what he does? Yeh, try try it.

825
00:40:20,920 --> 00:40:23,360
Speaker 1: I keep thinking back to the first time I was

826
00:40:23,400 --> 00:40:26,239
Speaker 1: Dona played the first base. It was like must see TV.

827
00:40:26,400 --> 00:40:28,360
Speaker 1: For about three innings in March. It was like all right,

828
00:40:28,480 --> 00:40:31,680
Speaker 1: can he actually stand over there and any look? Fine,

829
00:40:32,000 --> 00:40:33,600
Speaker 1: all right, Scott, I'll get you out of here. That's

830
00:40:33,640 --> 00:40:37,799
Speaker 1: a comprehensive ish conversation about Mandelson and Austin Riley. Two

831
00:40:37,800 --> 00:40:42,319
Speaker 1: interesting players, two hopefully pillars of the Braves line up

832
00:40:42,480 --> 00:40:46,880
Speaker 1: this season and again two of their best three position

833
00:40:46,920 --> 00:40:49,560
Speaker 1: players on paper, and maybe that changes maybe a year

834
00:40:49,600 --> 00:40:52,919
Speaker 1: from now we're talking about Drake Balwin or boy Michael Harris.

835
00:40:52,960 --> 00:40:55,080
Speaker 1: Maybe if Michael Harris, because Michael Harris and Capitol, it

836
00:40:55,160 --> 00:40:57,680
Speaker 1: would be great. But in the meantime, the Braves have

837
00:40:57,800 --> 00:41:00,200
Speaker 1: three guys they're lying on to be stars, and these

838
00:41:00,239 --> 00:41:01,880
Speaker 1: are two of the three, along with Ronnie who we

839
00:41:01,920 --> 00:41:05,719
Speaker 1: all know is the star. So anyway, fall Scott on

840
00:41:05,800 --> 00:41:08,040
Speaker 1: Twitter if you would like to talk about the Indianapolis

841
00:41:08,040 --> 00:41:11,160
Speaker 1: Colts at Scott Column fifty five, as well as Arizona

842
00:41:11,160 --> 00:41:13,920
Speaker 1: basketball number one in the country. Arizona basketball, how about that?

843
00:41:13,960 --> 00:41:16,640
Speaker 1: Bear down? Follow me if you want to at bt

844
00:41:16,800 --> 00:41:18,920
Speaker 1: roll and then follow more importantly the show at Hammer

845
00:41:19,000 --> 00:41:21,879
Speaker 1: Territory and please subscribe to Hammer Territory anywhere you get

846
00:41:21,880 --> 00:41:26,080
Speaker 1: your podcasts, Apple, Spotify, YouTube, et cil. We appreciate you listening.

847
00:41:26,120 --> 00:41:28,239
Speaker 1: As always, we'll have more later on this week and

848
00:41:28,320 --> 00:41:29,520
Speaker 1: we'll see you all. Thanks time,