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Speaker 1: Welcome back to a numbers game with Ryan Grodowski. Thank

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Speaker 1: you guys for being here. Happy Monday, everybody. I have

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Speaker 1: some fresh polling information. I want to break down some

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Speaker 1: data you want to know about. So let's get right

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Speaker 1: into it. We have a special guest also who has

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Speaker 1: run focus groups in every important swing state where there's

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Speaker 1: a US Senate race going on, to talk about the

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Speaker 1: future of the Senate, if Democrats can win, if Republicans

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Speaker 1: can hold it. Let's get into it. First, an earthquake

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Speaker 1: of a poll came out in Ohio finding Democrats are

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Speaker 1: up in the Buckeye State, a state I know very

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Speaker 1: well from all my time campaigning there and very you

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Speaker 1: know a lot of campaigns Ohio has. There are parts

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Speaker 1: of Ohio that are lovely, that are beautiful. There are

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Speaker 1: parts of Ohio that have been lost to time. I

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Speaker 1: don't know. I don't understand it. I have been in

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Speaker 1: Ohio sometimes where the roads are closed because literal chickens

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Speaker 1: are crossing the road. I have been. I did a

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Speaker 1: campaign one time in Ohio and I had a man

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Speaker 1: who was like for legalizing skunk ownership up. It was

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Speaker 1: this big passion issue. Another man was carrying lawn signs

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Speaker 1: and put them in the trunk of his car. He

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Speaker 1: had ferrets in his trunk and he said, sir, there

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Speaker 1: are other hamsters up. Excuse name is hamsters and said, sir,

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Speaker 1: there are hamsters in your trunk. He goes, oh, you

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Speaker 1: should see my garage. I was like, that is not

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Speaker 1: the answer we were looking for, sir, I mean, it

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Speaker 1: is wild. A while anyway, a pole came out from

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Speaker 1: EMC research that found the Democrat Amy Actin is leading

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Speaker 1: by ten points against Republican kind of the vek Raamaswami.

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Speaker 1: In the governor's race. The POLSO found that former Senator

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Speaker 1: Sheriff Brown has a small but respectable lead against incumbent

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Speaker 1: Senator John Eustad by four points. Now, this instantly went viral.

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Speaker 1: Everyone started talking about this poll on social media because

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Speaker 1: they were I mean, they had a lot of opinions

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Speaker 1: about the BECA. Some were very thoughtful and they said,

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Speaker 1: you know, this is what happens when we didn't have

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Speaker 1: a real primary, when all these statewide electors who want

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Speaker 1: to turn for governor didn't end up running because Trump

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Speaker 1: endorsed for bec and kind of push everybody out of

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Speaker 1: the race. And that's a very thoughtful opinion of other

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Speaker 1: people less thoughtful. I'm not going to go into you know,

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Speaker 1: I'm not, you know, a big fan of a VEC,

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Speaker 1: but nonetheless I will you know, I respect the man

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Speaker 1: for you know, some things and I and you shouldn't

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Speaker 1: be Christians should not be nasty and it something's a

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Speaker 1: lot of times with a VEC it does become nasty anyway.

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Speaker 1: So the opinions we're out there, but I want to

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Speaker 1: point something out and I think my words are valid,

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Speaker 1: especially because you know, I'm not the biggest fan of

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Speaker 1: VEC EMC research. The polster who did this poll is

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Speaker 1: not a reliable polster. It is not somebody now put

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Speaker 1: that data that they that they created and put that

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Speaker 1: in the back of your head like it's don't ignore

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Speaker 1: it completely, but it's not something to invest in. And

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Speaker 1: ac cording to The New York Times, agrees with me.

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Speaker 1: By the the New York Times said the poulster does

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Speaker 1: not meet their requirements as a select polster. This is

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Speaker 1: what the Time says quote. Poulsters that meet at least

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Speaker 1: two of the three criteria below are considered select polsters

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Speaker 1: by the Time as long as they're conducted polls for

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Speaker 1: nonpartisan sponsors. They either A have a track record of

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Speaker 1: accuracy in recent elections, B is a member of professional

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Speaker 1: polling organization, or c conduct probability based sample sizes. It's

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Speaker 1: just not something I would give a lot of credence

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Speaker 1: to wait until we see Emerson, or we see Ohio

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Speaker 1: State University or some other INSTITUTUENTYPIAC do a poll in

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Speaker 1: Ohio finding the same results. If that happens, then I'll say, oh, okay,

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Speaker 1: makes complete sense. But every poll so far has had

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Speaker 1: you know, acting in a vac up or down by

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Speaker 1: a point or two. So to have act in winning

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Speaker 1: with a landslide ten points seems highly unlikely to me.

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Speaker 1: I just you know, I don't find that. Also, the

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Speaker 1: fact is that the VEK is just put in a

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Speaker 1: massive ad spend of ten million dollars to go up

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Speaker 1: on area. It's going to be running across the entire state,

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Speaker 1: a positive ad for him. I saw it. It was

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Speaker 1: his wife talking him as a father and how he

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Speaker 1: loves his family and how he loves Ohio. I will

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Speaker 1: let you guys in on a little secret that somebody

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Speaker 1: who worked on his presidential race told me. Now, the

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Speaker 1: ad focuses solely on really his wife, and his wife

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Speaker 1: does the entire narration. Allegedly during his presidential race and

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Speaker 1: his presidential campaign, they looked at it and they found

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Speaker 1: that when Avec was on screen, people liked him less,

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Speaker 1: that he did not do a great job when he

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Speaker 1: was the narrative raider when he was making his own pitch.

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Speaker 1: That is, if that. I don't I heard that. I

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Speaker 1: didn't see any writing about it, but someone higher up

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Speaker 1: on the campaign told me that if that is true,

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Speaker 1: then we will likely see more ads that talk about

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Speaker 1: a back but he is not the main character on screen.

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Speaker 1: I think that's very interesting. But nonetheless, because he has

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Speaker 1: ten million dollars, I think that and that's just the

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Speaker 1: beginning of the ad spend, It's going to be millions

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Speaker 1: and millions more. And given the institutional support for Republicans

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Speaker 1: in the state, I still think it's his race to lose.

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Speaker 1: It leans Favec, certainly. Until I see more independent, nonpartisan

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Speaker 1: polls showing Acting with real movement, real efforts, I'm going

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Speaker 1: to believe that Vivek is a little likely next governor.

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Speaker 1: So that's my own personal opinion. Acting has to start

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Speaker 1: spending money and she doesn't have nearly as much money

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Speaker 1: as Favek does. Now there's another story that I wanted

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Speaker 1: to cover that I think is just crazy. Washington State

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Speaker 1: democrats in the legislature past the very first income tax

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Speaker 1: in the state's history, and it's like looking like the

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Speaker 1: governor is going to sign it, so Washington State will

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Speaker 1: become the next state, I believe, the forty second state

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Speaker 1: to adopt an income tax. The income tax is a

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Speaker 1: millionaire's tax, and they expected to add four billion dollars

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Speaker 1: in revenue. According to The New York Times, it would

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Speaker 1: impose a nine point nine percent annual tax on people

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Speaker 1: earning more than eight million dollars a year. Sorry, I

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Speaker 1: said billionaire. It was a millionaire's tax, a million dollars

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Speaker 1: a year, which is projected to affect twenty thousand households

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Speaker 1: in the state. Now here's the thing. It could cause

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Speaker 1: a few billionaires to leave, and even some people were

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Speaker 1: just millionaires already. Former CEO of Starbucks Howard Schultz says

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Speaker 1: that he's moving to Florida. He didn't say it was

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Speaker 1: because the millionaire's tax, but it just came at the

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Speaker 1: same exact time that was passing the legislature. I think

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Speaker 1: we could all read between the lines. I have two

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Speaker 1: main thoughts on this one. Think of Connecticut. Now you

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Speaker 1: probably put is Connecticut in Washington do with each other.

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Speaker 1: Connecticut was the last state before Washington to adopt an

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Speaker 1: income tax. Connecticut adopted an income text in nineteen ninety one,

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Speaker 1: and it was supposed to be a flat tax four

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Speaker 1: and a half percent, and I believe the conversation at

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Speaker 1: the time was it was only going to be temporary,

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Speaker 1: but four and a half percent flat tax for all

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Speaker 1: people except very low income earners to deal with the

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Speaker 1: state's financial problems. About nineteen ninety six, it was a

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Speaker 1: permanent thing. Was it was a progressive tax. High income

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Speaker 1: owners had a seven percent high income tax in Connecticut,

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Speaker 1: you know, and now it's one of the most tax

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Speaker 1: states in the country. It's a completely unfavable tax. Date

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Speaker 1: when its long history was that it was the destination

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Speaker 1: for New Yorkers who couldn't deal with the taxes anymore

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Speaker 1: and wanted to quick commute to the city. Washington is

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Speaker 1: talking maybe even higher tax for people who make a

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Speaker 1: million dollars a year. And in the last twenty some

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Speaker 1: odd years or thirty some one years since we saw

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Speaker 1: Connecticut adopt this income tax. A lot of businesses have left.

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Speaker 1: Connecticut is not the destination of billionaires and millionaires like

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Speaker 1: it once was. They have and even Connecticut's got nice areas,

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Speaker 1: it's got nice speeches, it's got beautiful properties. There's a

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Speaker 1: lot of things that Connecticut has going for it. It's

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Speaker 1: just its tax system is so detrimental that people have

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Speaker 1: fled the state. And they're democratic. Governor has tried to

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Speaker 1: pass tax cuts and try to, you know, make it

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Speaker 1: a little bit better, So kudos to him. However, it's

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Speaker 1: not enough, and it's certainly not enough to attract what

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Speaker 1: looks to be almost an exodus from New York City

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Speaker 1: given how close it is to the city. I mean,

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Speaker 1: given how close you know, if they had no income tax,

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Speaker 1: if Connecticut was like Florida, while Mandani is trying to

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Speaker 1: push all these radical policies on taxation, oh, I mean,

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Speaker 1: they would be fleeing there faster than you can possibly imagine.

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Speaker 1: It makes no sense why Connecticut, of all places, but

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Speaker 1: even Pennsylvania or New Jersey aren't trying to be the

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Speaker 1: Florida of the North, like try to make make a

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Speaker 1: taxation system that is greatly reduced and benefits people who

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Speaker 1: want easy access to New York City. I mean, New

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Speaker 1: York City is ninety minutes from parts of Pennsylvania, maybe

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Speaker 1: two hours if this super Trafficsey Connecticut forty five minutes,

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Speaker 1: forty five minutes to an hour, New Jerseys thirty forty minutes.

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Speaker 1: I mean, there's so many opportunities for these states to

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Speaker 1: really get higher income earners or even the middle class

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Speaker 1: away from New York who are looking to flee, and

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Speaker 1: they only have to now under the current conditions. They go.

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Speaker 1: Look at North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, Georgia. That's a

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Speaker 1: much greater migration pattern than just moving you a thirty

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Speaker 1: minutes away. You don't take the kids out of school,

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Speaker 1: or you know, you can still see your in laws

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Speaker 1: or your parents, or take care of an elderly person

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Speaker 1: like you can still keep your job. A lot more

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Speaker 1: benefits to for Connecticut or New Jersey, and they just

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Speaker 1: chose the opposite. Washington State's making the same same choice

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Speaker 1: right now. And what I don't understand for Democrats is

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Speaker 1: do you all not think twenty thirty is going to come? Like?

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Speaker 1: Does everyone think that twenty thirty when we have this

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Speaker 1: congressional reapportionment with the sensus come out that you're just

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Speaker 1: all going to be fine because all these blue states

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Speaker 1: are losing people. California, New York, Illinois, You're going to

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Speaker 1: lose seven or eight Electoral College votes. You're going to

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Speaker 1: make it harder for a Democrat president to get elected

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Speaker 1: throughout the next decade because of how bad your policies are.

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Speaker 1: And it's not all because your housing policy. Democrats are

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Speaker 1: obsessed with, oh, we just need to build more houses. No,

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Speaker 1: you need favorable taxation policies too. Money goes where it

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Speaker 1: is valued, and it stays where it is protected. It's

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Speaker 1: the people are not just fixed into a certain area

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Speaker 1: because the weather's nice. That benefits it. Certainly, nice weather

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Speaker 1: is a big you know, a big Reasara will stay.

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Speaker 1: But in a new digital age industry doesn't have to

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Speaker 1: stay in any place. That Wall Street doesn't have to

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Speaker 1: stay in New York. It really doesn't. It's all digital now.

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Speaker 1: These people are insane. They don't know what they're doing

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Speaker 1: for these states and for Democrats who are looking down,

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Speaker 1: you know, the long path of twenty thirty. That's why

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Speaker 1: their only bet to say themselves from political oblivion. Is

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Speaker 1: you know, make Washington you see a state, Make Guama state,

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Speaker 1: Make Puerto Rico a state, get you know, get as

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Speaker 1: many states as possible. It's not gonna save you. It's

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Speaker 1: just not gonna save you. You're making disastrous decisions one

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Speaker 1: after the other. And I know it's going to super

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Speaker 1: popular because it's a tax on millionaires and most people

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Speaker 1: are a millionaires. Nonetheless, what's popular and what is smart

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Speaker 1: may not always be the same thing. And I say

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Speaker 1: that as someone who supports populous a lot, but it

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Speaker 1: is not always the same thing. Taxing yourself into oblivion

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Speaker 1: instead of looking at some things to cut, instead of

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Speaker 1: making things more favorable for people, stay there. And also,

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Speaker 1: Washington State has some of the worst weather in the

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Speaker 1: whole country. So you guys not even appealing people because

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Speaker 1: you got nice speeches. It's terrible weather. It's raining constantly.

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Speaker 1: That's my little rant. Okay, we have the special guests

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Speaker 1: coming up to talk about what's going on in the

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Speaker 1: US Senate and US Senate races, the important races. Stay

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Speaker 1: tuned for that. Coming up next with me on today's

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Speaker 1: episode is Jessica Anderson. She is the present of Sentinel

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Speaker 1: Action Fund Now Jessica. You did a multi state focus

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Speaker 1: group looking at voters in Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia,

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Speaker 1: and New Hampshire and Maine, and especially looked at the

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Speaker 1: differences between low propensity Trump voters and swing voters, which

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Speaker 1: is a very important context because they will decide the election.

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Speaker 1: What was the most important difference that you found?

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Speaker 2: Well, first, Ryan, thanks so much for having me. You know,

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Speaker 2: to understand turnout for these coming midterms, you have to

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Speaker 2: recognize that the midterms are different than presidential years. And

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Speaker 2: what I mean by that is in a presidential year,

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Speaker 2: you can actually get away without turning out all swing voters.

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Speaker 2: You could really just focus on low propensity Trump voters. Well,

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Speaker 2: with the midterms, you you actually can't. We have to

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Speaker 2: have Republicans have to have both groups of voters. So

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Speaker 2: when we did these focus groups, we wanted to understand

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Speaker 2: the distinct things about both groups. What's making them, what

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Speaker 2: are they like, what are they not like? And then

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Speaker 2: what ties them together. And when we find the things

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Speaker 2: that tie them together, that's the magic sauce for how

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Speaker 2: Republicans can win in November. So the main things that

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Speaker 2: kind of drove the different groups is the low propensity

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Speaker 2: Trump voter. They fully see this election as protecting the

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Speaker 2: Trump agenda. This is about Congress being a partner, not

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Speaker 2: a blocker, to the Trump agenda. They want to see

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Speaker 2: candidates that are explicitly defined as partners of Trump that

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Speaker 2: they're tackling the issues that he cares about, whether it's

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Speaker 2: tariffs and trade and no tax on tips. Of course,

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Speaker 2: all of him is immigration reform policies. These voters are

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Speaker 2: also they're more bullish on the economy, and they also.

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Speaker 3: Are willing to give Trump more time on the economy.

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Speaker 3: So they may feel this.

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Speaker 2: They feel the same things we do that you know,

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Speaker 2: the price of goods isn't exactly where they want it

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Speaker 2: to be, or gas prices are spiking or increasing because

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Speaker 2: of Ira or other things. They feel those things, but

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Speaker 2: they trust Trump to take a little bit more time

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Speaker 2: to get it right. So that's the kind of the

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Speaker 2: economics side. On the Biden side, they have zero interest

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Speaker 2: in returning to any form of democratic leadership, whether it

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Speaker 2: was Biden, Hillary Clinton, Kamala Harris, Barack Obama. They have

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Speaker 2: no interest in going backwards. There's not even an appetite

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Speaker 2: to okay, who is running the Democratic Party and so

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Speaker 2: you contrast that with swing voters in these very same states,

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Speaker 2: you know, in some cases living on the same you know, neighborhoods,

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Speaker 2: right on the same blocks. And the swing voter sees

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Speaker 2: the midterm election as more of like a check in

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Speaker 2: balance with the Trump administration. There's some things that they

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Speaker 2: really like that the Trump team has put forward, and

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Speaker 2: then there's other things that they think could be more

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Speaker 2: well rounded or you know, didn't see around a corner

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Speaker 2: or didn't fully understand the downstream implication of it. And

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Speaker 2: so they want to see can that are kind of

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Speaker 2: standing on their own two feet articulating their vision in

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Speaker 2: some cases their vision for their specific state that came

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Speaker 2: up a lot in Maine, came up a lot in

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Speaker 2: North Carolina, Well what are you doing for me in

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Speaker 2: North Carolina? In Maine specifically, And then they give a

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Speaker 2: little bit of space to say, Okay, let Trump be Trump, right,

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Speaker 2: if Trump's going to do this or that, we're going

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Speaker 2: to let them do that. And so these swing voters

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Speaker 2: they see the same things we do that they see

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Speaker 2: the economy, they want it to work for all voters.

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Speaker 2: They want to understand how they're going to keep more

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Speaker 2: money in their pockets. So those tax cuts and the

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Speaker 2: de regulatory agenda are actually two pieces of the Trump

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Speaker 2: agenda that tie together the low prop voter with the

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Speaker 2: swing voter. And the last thing I'll just say on

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Speaker 2: the swing voter. And it could have been a little

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Speaker 2: bit of.

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Speaker 3: The timing of when we did these.

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Speaker 2: It was coming right after Minneapolis, right before I ran,

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Speaker 2: so kind of in a really unique moment in our

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Speaker 2: kind of current events. But they've got a little bit

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Speaker 2: of that chaos. They don't want to see craziness. But

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Speaker 2: it also is a double edged sword, I think against

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Speaker 2: Democrats because they also see they if Republicans lose the House,

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Speaker 2: in particular, that Democrats will revert to impeachment, and they

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Speaker 2: view an impeachment as a witch hunt and more chaos.

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Speaker 2: So Democrats have to be careful not to lean too far.

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Speaker 2: But I think Republicans have a huge opportunity with swing

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Speaker 2: voters to say where the Republicans are the party that

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Speaker 2: will govern fairly and effectively both domestically, and then when

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Speaker 2: we make decisions abroad, we're putting in America first.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's very I mean, Republicans are between a rock

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Speaker 1: and a hard place when it comes to being closely

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Speaker 1: associated with Trump, who is not as most popular by

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Speaker 1: any stretch of the imagination, and all the things that

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump brings negatively and positively, which is a lot

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Speaker 1: of at least chaos when it comes to how the

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Speaker 1: media represents it and how he sometimes represents himself even

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Speaker 1: when things are much calmer than they actually present themselves.

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Speaker 1: And then the second thing is is they have to

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Speaker 1: appeal to independence as being their own person. Whether they

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Speaker 1: vote one hundred percent Republican or not, they have to

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Speaker 1: show that they have an independentry. And at the same time,

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Speaker 1: Democrats there's a lot of conditions that remind me of

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Speaker 1: two thousand and six or twenty and eighteen, but the

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Speaker 1: Democratic brand is so poorly tarnished. The social trust among

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Speaker 1: voters towards Democrats is probably the worst in the country.

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Speaker 1: There's very little things that poll worse than being identified

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Speaker 1: as a Democrat. So they don't have the easiest time either.

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Speaker 1: They may win just because of social conditions, but it's

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Speaker 1: not it's not this pathway to winning forty seats like

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Speaker 1: we saw in two thousand and six. In two thousand

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Speaker 1: and eight, something that I thought that was very interesting

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Speaker 1: about your your poll is is that a lot of

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Speaker 1: incumbent Democrats or sorry, your public your study found a

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Speaker 1: lot of incumbent Democrats who've really harped on impeachment and

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Speaker 1: abolishing Ice are not faring super well like they could

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Speaker 1: be faring better. I mean among Democrats that I know,

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Speaker 1: there is this hope that John Ossup is going to

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Speaker 1: win in Georgia by ten points and then be a

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Speaker 1: presidential candidate immediately. The voters in your survey didn't seem

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Speaker 1: like they were all that warm on him, even though

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Speaker 1: that he's favored to win. But he's not looking like

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Speaker 1: a ten point win by this kind of survey.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's right.

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Speaker 2: And that's even before Republicans in Georgia know who is

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Speaker 2: running against him. So os Off might be at his

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Speaker 2: peak actually right now before the Republican primary is finished.

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Speaker 2: And what's happening for swing voters in Georgia is that

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Speaker 2: they see as off his rhetoric, his messaging, and everything

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Speaker 2: is about Trump.

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Speaker 3: Is Trump doesn't know what he's doing.

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Speaker 2: It's against Trump, it's never Trump, it's abolish Ice, it's

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Speaker 2: saying no to any common sense economic agenda, like when

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Speaker 2: you saw his opposition to no tax on tips, his

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Speaker 2: opposition to crypto expansion. There's just a ton of just normal.

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Speaker 1: He doesn't care. Now I do voters care?

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Speaker 3: Oh yeah, it's actually really interesting.

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Speaker 2: Did you know that one in four Georgians actually own

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Speaker 2: a crypto asset?

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Speaker 1: I do not know that. Yes, I did not know that.

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Speaker 3: It's really you know, I think I think crypto.

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Speaker 2: Crypto obviously played a lot in the spending of twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty four, and rightly so, because yeah, our hope is

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Speaker 2: for sure that they're back in twenty twenty six. But

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Speaker 2: you know, when they were spending in twenty twenty four,

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Speaker 2: it was let's retire shared Brown, let's turn the gavels

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Speaker 2: from you know, Senate Finance over to Republicans. Gary Gensler

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Speaker 2: and the SEC had been you know, just completely Operation

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Speaker 2: Choke point two point zero, right, Like, this was a

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Speaker 2: whole opposition campaign to stifle crypto. So they had really

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Speaker 2: good reason to be involved and to spend as greatly

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Speaker 2: as they did. But in the course of doing that,

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Speaker 2: they picked up more voters, and both Trump voters and

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Speaker 2: swing voters that see crypto as freedom, freedom from the

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Speaker 2: traditional financial market, more choice, more convenience for sharing money

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Speaker 2: and investing. They see it as innovative. They want America

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Speaker 2: to be the hub of it. And so we ran

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Speaker 2: a different, a different study than this one, looking at

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Speaker 2: the battleground states to see how, like, what is the

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Speaker 2: you know, how much how many people actually own a

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Speaker 2: digital asset wallet and are they where are they going

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Speaker 2: to vote on it. We actually ended up doing a

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Speaker 2: crypto specific focus group in Michigan because I was curious

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Speaker 2: with union workers there how that would butt up against

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Speaker 2: kind of the innovation of crypto. So it's a really

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Speaker 2: fascinating Yeah, I'm super fascinating voter.

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Speaker 1: People have made money off crypto. Some people have made

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Speaker 1: a lot of money, so they are like, maybe I

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Speaker 1: can get on it. I don't know. I don't. I'm

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Speaker 1: not a big crypto person. I don't totally against it,

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Speaker 1: but I just don't really I'm not something might niche,

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Speaker 1: but I didn't know that it was that high of

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Speaker 1: a priority. Okay. I want to focus on three states

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Speaker 1: in specific because this will very much decide the state

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Speaker 1: of the US Senate. So the first being North Carolina.

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Speaker 1: It is probably the most highly contested US center race

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Speaker 1: in the country. It is a vacant Republican seat against

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Speaker 1: a former governor and the Republican Army is the former

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Speaker 1: head of the RNC. How is it looking? Poles are

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Speaker 1: very lopside in favor of the Democrat. He's very very popular,

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Speaker 1: and you said that North Carolinians are among the most

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Speaker 1: are like very much saying what are you going to

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Speaker 1: do for us in that state? Which would, in my opinion,

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Speaker 1: kind of benefit the Democrat because the Democrat was the

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Speaker 1: governor of the state.

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Speaker 2: Yes, So North Carolina, of all the states, is the

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Speaker 2: most tricky. I would say it has the widest gap

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Speaker 2: between the low propensity Trump voter and the swing voter.

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Speaker 3: Now, North Carolina.

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Speaker 2: Is, of course the state that Trump won handily the

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Speaker 2: last three election cycles, so it has a lot of

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Speaker 2: red meat based voters in the state. But what's happening

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Speaker 2: now is so many new people have actually moved into

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Speaker 2: the state that are those traditional independents and swing voters.

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Speaker 2: So I think the mistake for North Carolina is that

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Speaker 2: you could have a situation where Wattlee who's running on

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Speaker 2: the Republican ticket, and Cooper on the dem ticket, that

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Speaker 2: all the two of them do is talk about Trump.

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Speaker 2: Cooper talks about how awful Trump is, and Wattley talks

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Speaker 2: about how great Trump is.

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Speaker 3: If they only talk about Trump that.

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Speaker 2: Is, that is a huge mistake for I think Republicans,

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Speaker 2: because there's this universe of swing voters that want to

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Speaker 2: hear something else. They want to know what the plan

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Speaker 2: is for economic growth in North Carolina, in particular the

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Speaker 2: housing sector, the banking sector. They want to know what

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Speaker 2: recovery efforts out west after the hurricane from a year

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Speaker 2: and a half ago. Now, they want to know what

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Speaker 2: is being done for safety and security after the horrific

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Speaker 2: slaying that we saw in the Charlotte light rail last year.

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Speaker 2: So there's really I think juicy things for Watley the

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Speaker 2: Republican candidates to talk about, and I think he actually

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Speaker 2: has started to internalize this. Just this last week he

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Speaker 2: was in North Carolina doing a housing roundtable and talking

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Speaker 2: about education, and Linda McMahon also came down into town.

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Speaker 2: So I think Chris Turner to you know, the President's

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Speaker 2: hut director. So I think you're going to see more

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Speaker 2: issues specific campaigning coming from the on the ground efforts

433
00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:52,800
Speaker 2: in the state, and that will, I think, not only

434
00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:55,760
Speaker 2: raise Watley's profile, but it'll give him something to talk

435
00:23:55,760 --> 00:23:58,040
Speaker 2: about it, to stand on and then He'll also be

436
00:23:58,080 --> 00:23:58,440
Speaker 2: able to.

437
00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:00,439
Speaker 3: Point to Cooper's you know record.

438
00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:03,639
Speaker 2: I mean, this was a governor that when he was

439
00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:05,080
Speaker 2: governor North Carolina.

440
00:24:05,760 --> 00:24:07,680
Speaker 3: You may remember this North Carolina too.

441
00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:09,960
Speaker 2: It was a state legislative build but that was the

442
00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:14,120
Speaker 2: first bathroom bill that ran in the country, long before

443
00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:17,960
Speaker 2: women securing women's sports and spaces was a national thing.

444
00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:21,479
Speaker 2: The front lines of that was North Carolina when Cooper

445
00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:22,000
Speaker 2: was governor.

446
00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:23,440
Speaker 3: So he's going to have to answer for.

447
00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:27,399
Speaker 2: Things that maybe he thought he was, you know, be

448
00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:28,840
Speaker 2: taking a moderate approach.

449
00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:31,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, all those years ago. Now it's extreme.

450
00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:34,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's such a fascinating because that first bathroom bill

451
00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:37,399
Speaker 1: was very unlike even by kind of Trump didn't like

452
00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:40,560
Speaker 1: it in twenty sixteen and the Republican governor lost reelection

453
00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:44,000
Speaker 1: on it, and now it is an overwhelmingly favorable thing.

454
00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:47,040
Speaker 1: But it's also the trans issue is one of those

455
00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:49,560
Speaker 1: eighty twenty issues that people everyone agrees with, but Noah

456
00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:51,320
Speaker 1: makes it a priority, and we saw with wins some

457
00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:55,840
Speaker 1: seiares it doesn't do enough to galvanize voters, So who knows.

458
00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:58,480
Speaker 1: I mean, it's definitely an interesting race, and no one

459
00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:01,480
Speaker 1: has seen Wilty as a candidate as far as any

460
00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:05,120
Speaker 1: electoral history as far as winning races go. So I'll

461
00:25:05,119 --> 00:25:06,920
Speaker 1: give them the benefit of the down until we see

462
00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:09,400
Speaker 1: something that changes. Cooper also is raising a ton of

463
00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:11,240
Speaker 1: money and I wanted to wait. I want to tell

464
00:25:11,240 --> 00:25:13,240
Speaker 1: you one to think you mentioned this so about all

465
00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:15,520
Speaker 1: the new people going to North Carolina. My aunt, my

466
00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:19,040
Speaker 1: dad's sister, moved North Carolina probably fifteen years ago and

467
00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:22,760
Speaker 1: it's from New York, New York, very traditional New Yorker'm

468
00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:25,160
Speaker 1: moving down south and she was really the first person

469
00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:29,280
Speaker 1: in my family to move south, and like within six

470
00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:31,800
Speaker 1: years she says, we have to stop all these New

471
00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:34,000
Speaker 1: Yorkers from coming here. I'm like, where do you think

472
00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:36,280
Speaker 1: that you came from? But like the need to, like

473
00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:38,480
Speaker 1: all of a sudden have that mentality of I live

474
00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:41,959
Speaker 1: in the South County is so funny, Okay. The second

475
00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:44,000
Speaker 1: being like, donut do New York?

476
00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:45,720
Speaker 3: Don't New York my North Carolina?

477
00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:49,119
Speaker 1: Why? But even even funny when you see when you

478
00:25:49,119 --> 00:25:53,040
Speaker 1: go to Texas, like former Californians are like the most

479
00:25:53,119 --> 00:25:55,600
Speaker 1: Texan people you'll meet. They'll be like, no, no, no, get

480
00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:58,119
Speaker 1: these Californias out of here. I'm like, you're from Orange County,

481
00:25:58,119 --> 00:26:02,359
Speaker 1: what are you talking about. The second thing is second,

482
00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:05,480
Speaker 1: say was Ohio. Ohio not only has a very highly

483
00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:08,760
Speaker 1: contested Senate race, but obviously hall governor's race that I

484
00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:13,240
Speaker 1: covered in my monologue. What are you picking up about

485
00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:15,840
Speaker 1: sha Brown? Because this is a case where incumbents, your

486
00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:19,879
Speaker 1: past incumbency really doesn't look like it benefits the Democrat,

487
00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:23,360
Speaker 1: despite you know, anyone saying otherwise. Sharon Brown has been

488
00:26:23,400 --> 00:26:26,040
Speaker 1: there for a long time, and I think the reputation

489
00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:29,000
Speaker 1: of being there for long time doesn't exactly help him. Yeah.

490
00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:32,720
Speaker 2: That that's exactly what our focus groups zoomed in on

491
00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:34,600
Speaker 2: as soon as they learned that he was a two

492
00:26:34,680 --> 00:26:37,679
Speaker 2: time Democrat Senate candidate, or they had forgotten because they

493
00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:39,960
Speaker 2: had kind of already put all of the Biden years

494
00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:43,119
Speaker 2: behind them. Once we reminded of them that there was

495
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:45,720
Speaker 2: just this general sense that he had been in office

496
00:26:45,720 --> 00:26:47,760
Speaker 2: long enough, it's time to move on.

497
00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:48,800
Speaker 3: He's too old.

498
00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:52,960
Speaker 1: He's only for two times, yeah, two candidate. It was

499
00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:55,439
Speaker 1: there for twenty five years, not twelve years.

500
00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:56,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, twelve years.

501
00:26:56,320 --> 00:27:00,919
Speaker 4: Oh wow, Okay, Yeah, but that's but I think that's like,

502
00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:05,280
Speaker 4: in some ways, it's indicative of just how much I

503
00:27:05,280 --> 00:27:09,119
Speaker 4: think Ohio was actually evolved like Ohio compared to the

504
00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:11,760
Speaker 4: other states, and definitely in contrast to North Carolina.

505
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:16,560
Speaker 2: The voters in Ohio are so much more conservative than

506
00:27:16,600 --> 00:27:19,800
Speaker 2: those in North Carolina or even Georgia, I mean even

507
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:24,199
Speaker 2: fiscal conservative issues about cutting spending and d reg and

508
00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:27,080
Speaker 2: the financial impact of these federal programs that Trump has

509
00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:29,040
Speaker 2: rolled out, Like they're not even.

510
00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:29,439
Speaker 1: Down with that.

511
00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:33,520
Speaker 2: So it's, you know, the Ohio of Bush years, right,

512
00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:36,160
Speaker 2: We've been thinking about that a little bit, Like Ohio

513
00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:38,359
Speaker 2: under Bush, it was like, Okay, let's go capture the

514
00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:43,320
Speaker 2: you know, the first ever working class state. That Ohio

515
00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:48,360
Speaker 2: has become so much more red and as a result, Michigan,

516
00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:52,000
Speaker 2: its neighbor, has really become the heartbeat of kind of

517
00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:55,800
Speaker 2: the mix of the working class of union workers, pro

518
00:27:55,840 --> 00:28:00,200
Speaker 2: federal programs, a little bit of fiscal conservatives, Like that's

519
00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:03,400
Speaker 2: much more the melting pot, whereas Ohio has really become

520
00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:08,520
Speaker 2: very very red meat. And so I think it's interesting

521
00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:12,040
Speaker 2: that Shared Brown is coming back. It feels a little

522
00:28:12,040 --> 00:28:15,000
Speaker 2: bit like whack a mole, like he was just defeated

523
00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:18,120
Speaker 2: and now he thinks he could come back and run

524
00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:21,240
Speaker 2: against a former lieutenant governor who is now a Senator,

525
00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:23,919
Speaker 2: and of course John Houstad knows that he's got to

526
00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:25,880
Speaker 2: do a lot of things to get.

527
00:28:25,680 --> 00:28:27,320
Speaker 3: His own name. I d up.

528
00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:31,240
Speaker 2: But talking and providing that contrast to Brown is the

529
00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:33,719
Speaker 2: best thing going for Housted and that will help him

530
00:28:33,760 --> 00:28:34,160
Speaker 2: with the voters.

531
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:36,959
Speaker 1: And John Euston is as much of a generic Republican

532
00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:40,600
Speaker 1: as anybody could possibly be, like literally just generic r

533
00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:43,760
Speaker 1: by his name. I mean, there's there's nothing. I mean,

534
00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:46,480
Speaker 1: he had a pretty horrific interview like this week, but

535
00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:51,160
Speaker 1: aside from that, there's there's very little controversy surrounding him.

536
00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:53,840
Speaker 1: Did you also look at the governor's race while you

537
00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:55,959
Speaker 1: were looking at that race? Was what was there?

538
00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:56,520
Speaker 3: We did?

539
00:28:57,040 --> 00:29:01,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, So what's interesting is that Vek Gramaswami, of course,

540
00:29:01,400 --> 00:29:04,280
Speaker 2: is who's running the governor's race for those that may

541
00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:07,080
Speaker 2: not be following along, And he's been on the road

542
00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:11,080
Speaker 2: for like, I mean six months at this point right

543
00:29:11,320 --> 00:29:14,040
Speaker 2: that feels maybe even longer, maybe even ten months, and

544
00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:16,880
Speaker 2: so he's had a huge runway to build na I

545
00:29:17,000 --> 00:29:20,040
Speaker 2: D and to start pulling up his coalition. He's going

546
00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:23,280
Speaker 2: to pull from cities more than Hugh said will and

547
00:29:23,320 --> 00:29:25,560
Speaker 2: so I think this will be interesting to see if

548
00:29:26,160 --> 00:29:30,080
Speaker 2: the VEC will help Houstead with the urban vote, and

549
00:29:30,120 --> 00:29:33,320
Speaker 2: then or Yeah with the urban vote, and then houstaid

550
00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:36,320
Speaker 2: will actually help the VEC with the rural vote. And

551
00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:39,600
Speaker 2: that will make I think a dynamic duo on the

552
00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:43,040
Speaker 2: ticket itself, because they both need each other to have

553
00:29:43,080 --> 00:29:47,480
Speaker 2: a full ticket win, as opposed to in Michigan, where

554
00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:50,720
Speaker 2: you've got potential a split ticket between the governors and

555
00:29:50,760 --> 00:29:51,560
Speaker 2: the Senate races.

556
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:54,800
Speaker 1: The Michigan governors also has a very prominent independent running,

557
00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:58,200
Speaker 1: so it's very it's a it's a much different I mean,

558
00:29:58,280 --> 00:30:01,400
Speaker 1: and the independent could win. I mean it's he's not leading,

559
00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:03,800
Speaker 1: but he's not far behind, and he is a very

560
00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:06,360
Speaker 1: well known and popular name in the state.

561
00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:09,440
Speaker 3: I could win in Michigan.

562
00:30:09,480 --> 00:30:12,360
Speaker 2: The independent governor could win in Michigan with Mike Rodgers

563
00:30:12,400 --> 00:30:14,640
Speaker 2: winning the Senate, and then you have a split ticket

564
00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:17,680
Speaker 2: going all the way down the ballot with Secretary of State,

565
00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:21,560
Speaker 2: a g state house, state Senate races, three House races.

566
00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:24,080
Speaker 3: I mean, Michigan has a lot on the ballot.

567
00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:27,239
Speaker 1: There's very it's a fun state this year. I mean

568
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:28,880
Speaker 1: a Michigan is not always a fund state, but it's

569
00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:31,920
Speaker 1: a fun state for politicos to look at. Yeah, No,

570
00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:35,360
Speaker 1: I'm curious only because for the governor's race there was

571
00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:38,640
Speaker 1: Vivek has not been polling well. And the thing that

572
00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:42,000
Speaker 1: people forget when they look at Ohio that I'm always

573
00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:44,160
Speaker 1: interested in, is Ohio for as red as it is

574
00:30:44,600 --> 00:30:47,600
Speaker 1: and for as electing as many moderate Republicans as it

575
00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:51,000
Speaker 1: has done. The first time a Republican governor runs, they

576
00:30:51,040 --> 00:30:53,280
Speaker 1: barely win. I mean, people forget, but Casey go On

577
00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:56,040
Speaker 1: by two points to Wine by three. It has been

578
00:30:56,160 --> 00:30:58,760
Speaker 1: very narrow wins the first time. So it'd be interesting

579
00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:00,560
Speaker 1: to see somebody who's running very very far to the

580
00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:03,520
Speaker 1: right or father to the right than Casik and dwined it.

581
00:31:03,520 --> 00:31:05,040
Speaker 1: I'll put that a calve out there and say, very

582
00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:07,320
Speaker 1: far the right, but further the right than typical governor

583
00:31:07,360 --> 00:31:10,760
Speaker 1: Cannons does. If it galvanizes people to support them more

584
00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:13,840
Speaker 1: or less, it's just it's interesting. He's got a ton

585
00:31:13,880 --> 00:31:15,320
Speaker 1: of money, and we'll see, I mean, Amy Acting is

586
00:31:15,320 --> 00:31:18,720
Speaker 1: doing decent fundraising, but it's a ton of money. Okay, Last,

587
00:31:18,760 --> 00:31:22,040
Speaker 1: but not least, and this is probably the most interesting

588
00:31:22,080 --> 00:31:26,080
Speaker 1: one to me is Maine. Maine has Susan Collins running

589
00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:29,920
Speaker 1: for her sixth term. She has been she's now the

590
00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:34,000
Speaker 1: only incumbent person in office who's been in a state

591
00:31:34,040 --> 00:31:38,480
Speaker 1: that voted against the residential party every time for the

592
00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:43,240
Speaker 1: last three times. And she is a she's she's beloved

593
00:31:43,440 --> 00:31:45,920
Speaker 1: and hated at the same time, depending on who you ask,

594
00:31:46,000 --> 00:31:47,920
Speaker 1: and the Democratic side, you have the you have the

595
00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:52,000
Speaker 1: election battle between Governor Janet Mills, who's eighty, she's not

596
00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:54,560
Speaker 1: a young person, but and she's got you know, back

597
00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:57,960
Speaker 1: and forth, and then the Graham whatever his last name

598
00:31:58,000 --> 00:31:59,760
Speaker 1: is now I'm forgetting it, just a whole episode on him,

599
00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:06,040
Speaker 1: Graham Planner, thank you, grand Planner? Who is He's nuts? Like,

600
00:32:06,120 --> 00:32:07,840
Speaker 1: he's just nuts, There's no other way to say it.

601
00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:11,680
Speaker 1: He's spent his entire thirties, not teens, but thirties on Reddit,

602
00:32:12,000 --> 00:32:16,479
Speaker 1: ranting and raving about different insane things. So what is

603
00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:19,480
Speaker 1: the How is the voters feel going into the centericeent? Main?

604
00:32:20,480 --> 00:32:27,080
Speaker 2: So main voters are the most fiercely independent of any

605
00:32:27,120 --> 00:32:31,080
Speaker 2: of the voters that we talked about. So they really

606
00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:34,840
Speaker 2: view life in a split screen. What's good for Maine

607
00:32:34,960 --> 00:32:37,120
Speaker 2: versus what's good for the United States, And if those

608
00:32:37,160 --> 00:32:40,239
Speaker 2: two things are in contrast, they're choosing Maine, right, So

609
00:32:40,280 --> 00:32:44,160
Speaker 2: their top issue is housing. They're worried about the economy,

610
00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:47,640
Speaker 2: the cost of living, They're thinking about oil prices, healthcare,

611
00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:50,440
Speaker 2: so all of the issues that the country is thinking of,

612
00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:52,280
Speaker 2: but they want to know how it's going to impact

613
00:32:52,520 --> 00:32:57,840
Speaker 2: them directly. And Susan Collins, because she has that fierce

614
00:32:57,920 --> 00:33:04,120
Speaker 2: independence herself, sometimes voting with the president, sometimes opposing him.

615
00:33:03,320 --> 00:33:04,200
Speaker 3: They actually love that.

616
00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:06,560
Speaker 2: They love that about her because they see that as

617
00:33:06,640 --> 00:33:10,440
Speaker 2: her decision to focus on what's best for maynors. And

618
00:33:10,480 --> 00:33:13,640
Speaker 2: so I think the challenge in Maine is for those

619
00:33:13,680 --> 00:33:19,600
Speaker 2: one hundred thousand or so Trump leaning, conservative leaning manors

620
00:33:19,640 --> 00:33:23,120
Speaker 2: that have moved into the state after her election six

621
00:33:23,240 --> 00:33:23,720
Speaker 2: years ago.

622
00:33:23,800 --> 00:33:24,960
Speaker 3: They're going to be first.

623
00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:27,760
Speaker 2: Time voters for Collins, but they voted for Trump in

624
00:33:27,800 --> 00:33:28,680
Speaker 2: twenty twenty four.

625
00:33:29,400 --> 00:33:31,080
Speaker 3: They need to feel where are.

626
00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:33,600
Speaker 1: They moving from? Can I ask you, do you know.

627
00:33:35,280 --> 00:33:36,760
Speaker 3: New Hampshire moving.

628
00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:41,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, they're moving from Massachusetts. They're moving from Boston. They

629
00:33:41,520 --> 00:33:45,120
Speaker 2: felt like Boston was too liberal. New Hampshire's too liberals,

630
00:33:45,200 --> 00:33:48,320
Speaker 2: So they're getting out into you know, the wide out.

631
00:33:48,960 --> 00:33:52,200
Speaker 1: Hampshire's government is very republican. Yeah.

632
00:33:52,680 --> 00:33:56,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's there's a whole foot there's a whole kind

633
00:33:56,880 --> 00:34:00,880
Speaker 2: of foot foot traffic going on in the northeast, and

634
00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:03,760
Speaker 2: Maine is attractive because there's not a lot of people,

635
00:34:03,880 --> 00:34:07,920
Speaker 2: so it's that libertarian streak, that independent streak. People aren't

636
00:34:07,920 --> 00:34:10,839
Speaker 2: going to bother you. It's a good place to raise

637
00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:13,760
Speaker 2: families if you can, you know, get over the snow

638
00:34:14,480 --> 00:34:19,120
Speaker 2: for however many months of the year. Yeah, it's really

639
00:34:19,160 --> 00:34:20,799
Speaker 2: and it's beautiful, right, I mean, you've been.

640
00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:21,400
Speaker 3: It's beautiful.

641
00:34:21,440 --> 00:34:24,000
Speaker 1: And I love Maine. I love New England. I love Vermont.

642
00:34:24,040 --> 00:34:26,719
Speaker 1: I mean, I love New England. Yeah, I don't mind snow.

643
00:34:26,760 --> 00:34:27,439
Speaker 1: I really don't.

644
00:34:27,640 --> 00:34:30,359
Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean, look, I've got a friend that

645
00:34:30,920 --> 00:34:32,520
Speaker 2: was in DC with us.

646
00:34:32,640 --> 00:34:34,400
Speaker 3: They lived here with us during COVID.

647
00:34:34,400 --> 00:34:37,680
Speaker 2: They moved to Palm Beach because they wanted the sunshine

648
00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:40,839
Speaker 2: and the open state of Florida. And then they got

649
00:34:40,880 --> 00:34:43,440
Speaker 2: too hot and they've moved their family of four. They

650
00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:45,480
Speaker 2: have four kids, so a family of six. They've moved

651
00:34:45,520 --> 00:34:50,760
Speaker 2: to Maine. It's just it's happening. So she's a great example.

652
00:34:50,800 --> 00:34:53,319
Speaker 2: Her and her husband voted for Trump in twenty twenty four.

653
00:34:53,520 --> 00:34:55,120
Speaker 2: First time they're going to be asked whether or not

654
00:34:55,160 --> 00:34:57,439
Speaker 2: they're going to vote for for Susan Collins in twenty

655
00:34:57,480 --> 00:35:02,719
Speaker 2: twenty six. So those voters, those Trump but independent voters

656
00:35:02,760 --> 00:35:06,160
Speaker 2: are gonna need to know that it's okay to vote

657
00:35:06,160 --> 00:35:07,880
Speaker 2: for Collins. They're going to need a little bit of

658
00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:10,799
Speaker 2: a permission structure. And so I think the fact that

659
00:35:10,840 --> 00:35:15,120
Speaker 2: you have people like State Representative Laurel Libby, who rose

660
00:35:15,160 --> 00:35:19,719
Speaker 2: to national acclaim backing Susan Collins, that shows that conservatives

661
00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:23,239
Speaker 2: can get behind Collins and can be excited for her

662
00:35:23,480 --> 00:35:25,919
Speaker 2: while she then does the things she needs to do

663
00:35:26,080 --> 00:35:28,600
Speaker 2: to lock down those independents and Dems.

664
00:35:28,640 --> 00:35:29,400
Speaker 3: That Dems.

665
00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:32,279
Speaker 2: I think that will also cross over because whether it's

666
00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:35,400
Speaker 2: Mills or Plantner, both of them have major problems with

667
00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:38,480
Speaker 2: what they stand for with their campaigns. I mean, the

668
00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:42,120
Speaker 2: thing about about Plantner that I think a lot of

669
00:35:42,160 --> 00:35:44,520
Speaker 2: people forget is he's a fraud.

670
00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:46,520
Speaker 3: I mean, he grew up with money.

671
00:35:46,640 --> 00:35:50,000
Speaker 1: I did a whole episode on this. He's a fraud.

672
00:35:50,120 --> 00:35:52,960
Speaker 1: He said white people are stupid, rural whites are stupid.

673
00:35:53,520 --> 00:35:56,160
Speaker 1: He doesn't he is. He's a small business owner who

674
00:35:56,160 --> 00:35:59,080
Speaker 1: doesn't make any money on his business. He has he

675
00:35:59,160 --> 00:36:01,960
Speaker 1: said thirty five years old, he was a devout communist.

676
00:36:02,719 --> 00:36:07,400
Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, the guy is he He also trained

677
00:36:07,440 --> 00:36:13,120
Speaker 1: a power military organization for socialists like Rifle Association. It's

678
00:36:13,440 --> 00:36:17,000
Speaker 1: he's whack a doodle doo crazy, but he very likely

679
00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:20,080
Speaker 1: will be the Democratic nominee. I mean at this point,

680
00:36:20,160 --> 00:36:24,600
Speaker 1: unless Jenna Mills, unless they are underpolling institutional Democrats who

681
00:36:24,640 --> 00:36:28,799
Speaker 1: support Mills. Either which way, Susan Collins usually has the

682
00:36:28,800 --> 00:36:30,680
Speaker 1: fight of her life against her, and she will have

683
00:36:30,719 --> 00:36:34,240
Speaker 1: a big fight this time, but she's probably the most

684
00:36:34,320 --> 00:36:36,840
Speaker 1: It's I always say it is good when blues states

685
00:36:36,880 --> 00:36:40,799
Speaker 1: have Republican representatives and when red states have Democratic representatives,

686
00:36:40,840 --> 00:36:44,719
Speaker 1: because when there is a national issue, it is important

687
00:36:44,760 --> 00:36:47,840
Speaker 1: that you know, we have representation. Like when California had

688
00:36:47,840 --> 00:36:50,360
Speaker 1: their wildfires, California's going to have very few Republicans anymore.

689
00:36:50,360 --> 00:36:52,560
Speaker 1: What's the point of the coal of the delegate? How

690
00:36:52,760 --> 00:36:55,640
Speaker 1: INFLUENTI will the delegation be when there's only four members

691
00:36:55,920 --> 00:36:58,920
Speaker 1: and vice versa. If Texas has a disaster there's only

692
00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:02,239
Speaker 1: seven Democrats? How important is our delipent? Important is the

693
00:37:02,280 --> 00:37:05,920
Speaker 1: delegation to the overall national conversation? So that's you know,

694
00:37:06,239 --> 00:37:10,000
Speaker 1: very very interesting. But I think Susan Collins is super important. Okay, Jessica,

695
00:37:10,040 --> 00:37:11,839
Speaker 1: Where do people go to read more about what you

696
00:37:11,880 --> 00:37:13,160
Speaker 1: do your op eds everything.

697
00:37:13,640 --> 00:37:17,560
Speaker 2: Oh yes, please follow along on x it's Jess Anderson too,

698
00:37:17,800 --> 00:37:21,080
Speaker 2: or follow us at Sentinel Action Fund dot com. We've

699
00:37:21,120 --> 00:37:23,400
Speaker 2: got a great sub stack under the same name Centinel

700
00:37:23,400 --> 00:37:25,960
Speaker 2: Action Fund dot com. We send all of this to

701
00:37:26,040 --> 00:37:30,120
Speaker 2: our substack followers regularly and we'll be posting from the trail.

702
00:37:30,200 --> 00:37:32,560
Speaker 2: We launch our efforts in Michigan next week and so

703
00:37:33,080 --> 00:37:34,960
Speaker 2: expect to hear a report of how it's going for

704
00:37:35,040 --> 00:37:35,640
Speaker 2: Mike Rodgers.

705
00:37:36,160 --> 00:37:37,799
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, great, Thank you so much for on

706
00:37:37,840 --> 00:37:38,440
Speaker 1: this podcast.

707
00:37:38,760 --> 00:37:40,160
Speaker 3: Thanks for having me. Appreciate it.

708
00:37:43,480 --> 00:37:45,120
Speaker 1: Now it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment. If

709
00:37:45,239 --> 00:37:47,759
Speaker 1: money part of the Ask Me Anything segment, email me

710
00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:50,840
Speaker 1: Ryan at Numbers Gamepodcast dot com. That's Ryan at Numbers

711
00:37:50,880 --> 00:37:53,359
Speaker 1: Plural Numbers Gamepodcast dot com. I get to all your

712
00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:55,680
Speaker 1: questions eventually. I know I have a lot backed up now,

713
00:37:55,719 --> 00:37:57,680
Speaker 1: but I will get to them. I'm looking forward to

714
00:37:57,719 --> 00:37:59,759
Speaker 1: new ones. I have a couple of people who send

715
00:37:59,800 --> 00:38:02,880
Speaker 1: me constantly, and I love you for it, but I

716
00:38:02,920 --> 00:38:04,600
Speaker 1: always like to get a new one from somebody who

717
00:38:04,640 --> 00:38:07,440
Speaker 1: hasn't been read yet. So send me an email when

718
00:38:07,480 --> 00:38:09,640
Speaker 1: you can. I really really appreciate it. Does a lot

719
00:38:09,640 --> 00:38:11,840
Speaker 1: for the show too. Okay, this one comes from my

720
00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:14,760
Speaker 1: buddy Cameron. He writes, one of my friends has fallen

721
00:38:14,800 --> 00:38:17,120
Speaker 1: into the quote woke right end quote. I'm trying to

722
00:38:17,120 --> 00:38:19,479
Speaker 1: figure out how I can pull him back. I asked

723
00:38:19,520 --> 00:38:21,520
Speaker 1: Cameron for details, and he said he believes things like

724
00:38:21,560 --> 00:38:24,520
Speaker 1: the Rothschild conspiracy, that the Rothschilds were the reason behind

725
00:38:24,520 --> 00:38:27,920
Speaker 1: all the wars Israel killed Charlie Kirk jfk Epstein, and

726
00:38:28,600 --> 00:38:32,200
Speaker 1: Epstein was a massad agent. Rather, the Clintons and Bushes

727
00:38:32,200 --> 00:38:34,160
Speaker 1: were part of a secret society that worship demons. He

728
00:38:34,200 --> 00:38:36,600
Speaker 1: has fallen on hard times. I don't know what to say,

729
00:38:36,800 --> 00:38:38,919
Speaker 1: and he makes the new claims faster than I can

730
00:38:38,960 --> 00:38:42,960
Speaker 1: research the old ones. This is tough because this is

731
00:38:42,960 --> 00:38:47,840
Speaker 1: not an isolated incident, and I think that honestly, like

732
00:38:47,920 --> 00:38:50,600
Speaker 1: things like chat gipt sometimes have made things worse because

733
00:38:50,600 --> 00:38:53,799
Speaker 1: they confirm bad conspiracies. I have somebody who I know,

734
00:38:54,080 --> 00:38:56,120
Speaker 1: not super well, but I know him throughout my life.

735
00:38:56,120 --> 00:38:58,719
Speaker 1: Who is He's actually in a mental hospital now because

736
00:38:58,719 --> 00:39:02,160
Speaker 1: he fell into a a ind psychosis where he was

737
00:39:02,200 --> 00:39:04,720
Speaker 1: like I think his wife' says something too. He's spending

738
00:39:04,760 --> 00:39:06,919
Speaker 1: like ten to twelve hours a day talking to chat

739
00:39:06,960 --> 00:39:10,480
Speaker 1: GPT and it's like dangerous. I mean, these are this

740
00:39:10,600 --> 00:39:14,120
Speaker 1: is it's certainly dangerous for people who are on the

741
00:39:14,120 --> 00:39:16,880
Speaker 1: fringe to begin with. What I would say is this

742
00:39:18,320 --> 00:39:22,239
Speaker 1: is there are times that conspiracies are legitimate, but oftentimes

743
00:39:22,239 --> 00:39:26,400
Speaker 1: they are not legitimate, and people will look to conspiracies

744
00:39:26,680 --> 00:39:29,800
Speaker 1: when they feel their own life is out of control,

745
00:39:30,120 --> 00:39:33,520
Speaker 1: when it it could be poor decision making, bad luck,

746
00:39:33,960 --> 00:39:36,839
Speaker 1: bad timing, the run, you know, a roll of the dice,

747
00:39:36,920 --> 00:39:39,200
Speaker 1: whatever the case is, and their life is not in

748
00:39:39,400 --> 00:39:43,880
Speaker 1: the best circumstances. They fall into, or they feel or

749
00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:46,560
Speaker 1: even they think the country's on the best circumstances, they

750
00:39:46,560 --> 00:39:49,800
Speaker 1: fall into belief that there must be a secret cabal

751
00:39:50,160 --> 00:39:53,799
Speaker 1: of a few people who have made the decisions to

752
00:39:54,040 --> 00:39:57,120
Speaker 1: get us to this place, that they are the victim

753
00:39:57,160 --> 00:40:01,160
Speaker 1: of all these circumstances, and something bigger than them is

754
00:40:01,239 --> 00:40:07,759
Speaker 1: really what's trouble, what's making these decisions that doesn't I'm

755
00:40:07,800 --> 00:40:09,680
Speaker 1: not saying that there aren't lobbyists. I'm not saying there's

756
00:40:09,680 --> 00:40:12,160
Speaker 1: not special interest groups. I'm not saying there aren't politicians

757
00:40:12,160 --> 00:40:17,480
Speaker 1: doing backroom deals at times. However, that is not the

758
00:40:17,600 --> 00:40:21,560
Speaker 1: case for why the country is not is the way

759
00:40:21,600 --> 00:40:23,560
Speaker 1: that it is. It's not the case for why society

760
00:40:23,640 --> 00:40:25,160
Speaker 1: is the way that it is. It's not the case

761
00:40:25,200 --> 00:40:27,839
Speaker 1: for why joblessens is always the way that it is.

762
00:40:30,520 --> 00:40:31,960
Speaker 1: And I'm trying to say this very delicately because I

763
00:40:31,960 --> 00:40:34,120
Speaker 1: don't want to hurtnyone's feelings if you're on this fringe.

764
00:40:34,680 --> 00:40:38,120
Speaker 1: But this is how I equate it. Right, Go through

765
00:40:38,120 --> 00:40:40,239
Speaker 1: your phone. How many contexts do you have? I have

766
00:40:40,360 --> 00:40:42,799
Speaker 1: like fourteen hundred saved contexts in my phone, which I

767
00:40:42,800 --> 00:40:45,440
Speaker 1: thought was normal, but my friends were like, you're insane.

768
00:40:45,480 --> 00:40:48,239
Speaker 1: Probably that many contexts and and I'm notoriously bad, by

769
00:40:48,239 --> 00:40:50,160
Speaker 1: the way, for saving phone numbers, so it's probably closer

770
00:40:50,200 --> 00:40:53,160
Speaker 1: to two thousand. Think of how many people of your

771
00:40:53,200 --> 00:40:59,200
Speaker 1: phone contacts are truly gifted, truly on the upper upper

772
00:40:59,280 --> 00:41:02,560
Speaker 1: echelons of an intelligence or talent or something like. Think

773
00:41:02,600 --> 00:41:06,960
Speaker 1: about how many are genuinely like blows you away. Probably

774
00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:10,560
Speaker 1: less than five percent, right, that are really gifted. That

775
00:41:10,719 --> 00:41:15,880
Speaker 1: is true of the world at large. Very very few

776
00:41:15,960 --> 00:41:21,239
Speaker 1: people are are have genuine explosive talent, who could play

777
00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:24,240
Speaker 1: in the NBA, who could be a performer on Broadway,

778
00:41:24,280 --> 00:41:28,319
Speaker 1: who could be you know, a nuclear engineer, scientist that discovers,

779
00:41:28,400 --> 00:41:32,720
Speaker 1: you know, a groundbreaking new thing. Talent is so randomly

780
00:41:32,719 --> 00:41:36,800
Speaker 1: dispersed and it is so fundamentally rare. Right, Not everyone

781
00:41:36,800 --> 00:41:39,120
Speaker 1: can write a great novel. Not everyone can do everything.

782
00:41:39,480 --> 00:41:42,600
Speaker 1: I certainly can't do a lot of things. And for

783
00:41:42,719 --> 00:41:45,720
Speaker 1: the rest of society and that on the flip side,

784
00:41:46,080 --> 00:41:49,960
Speaker 1: only like five to ten percent are truly can't do anything,

785
00:41:50,000 --> 00:41:51,960
Speaker 1: Like you're like, wow, this you're you know, you're a

786
00:41:52,160 --> 00:41:54,560
Speaker 1: disaster area. They can't. You know, they're at the very

787
00:41:54,640 --> 00:41:57,440
Speaker 1: very low end. For the ninety percent or the eighty

788
00:41:57,480 --> 00:42:00,719
Speaker 1: percent or whatever is there, You're just normal and you're

789
00:42:00,719 --> 00:42:02,200
Speaker 1: in the middle. I know the normal is like an

790
00:42:02,239 --> 00:42:04,480
Speaker 1: offensive term because everyone wants to feel special. I don't

791
00:42:04,480 --> 00:42:06,120
Speaker 1: mean that you're not special. I'm not saying that you

792
00:42:06,120 --> 00:42:08,040
Speaker 1: don't have, you know, a soul and you're not made

793
00:42:08,040 --> 00:42:10,080
Speaker 1: and you're special because you're made in God's image, Like

794
00:42:10,080 --> 00:42:13,360
Speaker 1: that's why you're special. But I'm not saying you're not special.

795
00:42:13,440 --> 00:42:17,080
Speaker 1: I'm saying that you're in just the normal, Like you're

796
00:42:17,200 --> 00:42:19,760
Speaker 1: like the eighty percent normal. I fit in that eighty

797
00:42:19,840 --> 00:42:22,360
Speaker 1: to ninety percent normal. Maybe I'm on the middle to

798
00:42:22,520 --> 00:42:25,040
Speaker 1: higher tier, but I'm not in any class that should

799
00:42:25,080 --> 00:42:31,280
Speaker 1: be like enormously amazing. And it's that eighty to ninety

800
00:42:31,320 --> 00:42:37,920
Speaker 1: percent who are not hyper motivated, not hyper energized in politics, right,

801
00:42:38,000 --> 00:42:42,839
Speaker 1: that whole, that whole, that whole group that is true

802
00:42:42,840 --> 00:42:46,479
Speaker 1: of talent is also true of political activity. Eighty ninety

803
00:42:46,520 --> 00:42:49,600
Speaker 1: percent they go to vote. Maybe it's a lot, maybe sometimes,

804
00:42:49,600 --> 00:42:52,640
Speaker 1: but they're not hyper energized. And it's the five percent

805
00:42:53,000 --> 00:42:55,480
Speaker 1: that never show up and I don't care and don't

806
00:42:55,480 --> 00:42:57,120
Speaker 1: want to talk about and the five percent who will

807
00:42:57,160 --> 00:43:00,520
Speaker 1: talk about it at any given whim that really decide

808
00:43:00,560 --> 00:43:03,239
Speaker 1: a lot of things because they are highly motivated, and

809
00:43:03,280 --> 00:43:07,000
Speaker 1: they have pushed for policies that are not great, and

810
00:43:07,040 --> 00:43:08,360
Speaker 1: they have pushed for things that are not great. But

811
00:43:08,400 --> 00:43:11,560
Speaker 1: they're not part of a secret society, and it's not

812
00:43:11,640 --> 00:43:14,719
Speaker 1: like they always get their way, and it's not like

813
00:43:16,320 --> 00:43:19,280
Speaker 1: they are all communicating with one another. Do you understand

814
00:43:19,320 --> 00:43:23,920
Speaker 1: what I'm saying? I think to rather than trying to

815
00:43:24,000 --> 00:43:27,400
Speaker 1: dismiss or fact check him every single time, you're falling

816
00:43:27,400 --> 00:43:30,120
Speaker 1: into a rabbit hole that waste your time. I think

817
00:43:30,120 --> 00:43:34,400
Speaker 1: it's part of a bigger psycho analysis of what's wrong

818
00:43:34,440 --> 00:43:37,160
Speaker 1: with you, where you feel like you're out of control

819
00:43:37,320 --> 00:43:40,040
Speaker 1: of your own life, and you feel like Americans don't

820
00:43:40,040 --> 00:43:43,320
Speaker 1: have a say in their country. What makes you feel

821
00:43:43,440 --> 00:43:45,799
Speaker 1: this way as a whole because a lot of things

822
00:43:45,840 --> 00:43:48,839
Speaker 1: that you think are being decided for you one you're

823
00:43:48,880 --> 00:43:50,839
Speaker 1: part of the decision making, and a lot of things

824
00:43:50,840 --> 00:43:54,360
Speaker 1: that are being decided for America. Americans have decided to

825
00:43:55,360 --> 00:43:57,839
Speaker 1: go this way, to live this way, to you know,

826
00:43:57,920 --> 00:44:02,439
Speaker 1: have falling marriage rates, or or support politicians that support war,

827
00:44:02,600 --> 00:44:05,560
Speaker 1: or whatever the case is. No one's making South Carolina

828
00:44:05,600 --> 00:44:07,719
Speaker 1: vote for Lindsay Graham. They are choosing to vote for

829
00:44:07,760 --> 00:44:11,880
Speaker 1: Lindsay Graham. And likewise, no one is taking your country

830
00:44:11,880 --> 00:44:15,040
Speaker 1: from you. A lot of times your countrymen are giving

831
00:44:15,080 --> 00:44:18,360
Speaker 1: it away. And I think that that is saying is

832
00:44:18,400 --> 00:44:21,800
Speaker 1: a very hard pill to swallow, especially when you disagree

833
00:44:21,840 --> 00:44:25,040
Speaker 1: with that. I disagree with how New Yorkers voted for Mandani,

834
00:44:25,640 --> 00:44:29,720
Speaker 1: but I don't believe it was like in Islamic underground overtaking.

835
00:44:30,480 --> 00:44:33,000
Speaker 1: We have a lot of dumb people who voted in

836
00:44:33,000 --> 00:44:36,040
Speaker 1: a very bad way for a man who you know,

837
00:44:36,080 --> 00:44:38,320
Speaker 1: couldn't run an ice cream store and is running the

838
00:44:38,320 --> 00:44:41,120
Speaker 1: biggest city in the country. That's not the same thing

839
00:44:41,160 --> 00:44:46,000
Speaker 1: as believing that there's a secret cabal anyway, that's I

840
00:44:46,000 --> 00:44:48,080
Speaker 1: think how you should approach it. Approach it from what's

841
00:44:48,120 --> 00:44:51,200
Speaker 1: going on with them that they feel this way, rather

842
00:44:51,360 --> 00:44:54,040
Speaker 1: than trying to fact check them. You're going to end

843
00:44:54,120 --> 00:44:56,560
Speaker 1: up in a space where you'll just have a headache

844
00:44:56,600 --> 00:44:59,520
Speaker 1: and want to cut it off because there's no end

845
00:44:59,560 --> 00:45:01,680
Speaker 1: to the psych You either have to figure out where

846
00:45:01,680 --> 00:45:05,000
Speaker 1: they are or move along. Anyway. That's this episode. I

847
00:45:05,000 --> 00:45:07,200
Speaker 1: hope you guys enjoyed it. I will be back on Wednesday.

848
00:45:07,239 --> 00:45:10,239
Speaker 1: Please like and subscribing the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts where

849
00:45:10,280 --> 00:45:12,600
Speaker 1: get this podcast, and on YouTube. Please subscribe to my

850
00:45:12,600 --> 00:45:15,879
Speaker 1: YouTube page. It makes a lot of difference. Thank you, guys.

851
00:45:15,920 --> 00:45:16,759
Speaker 1: I'll talk to you later.