1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:21,240 Speaker 1: on Apple car Play or Android Auto with the Bloomberg 4 00:00:21,320 --> 00:00:24,880 Speaker 1: Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 5 00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:26,960 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:27,120 --> 00:00:29,200 Speaker 2: Think back on twenty twenty five the returns we've had 7 00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:31,760 Speaker 2: inequities and fixed income and commodities, and think about twenty 8 00:00:31,800 --> 00:00:34,000 Speaker 2: twenty six worst opportunities and where you really want to 9 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:37,360 Speaker 2: start is in technology. We do that with Dan Ives. 10 00:00:37,680 --> 00:00:40,320 Speaker 2: He's a senior tech analyst and head of technology research 11 00:00:40,360 --> 00:00:41,360 Speaker 2: at what Bush Security Stand. 12 00:00:41,360 --> 00:00:44,320 Speaker 3: Thanks for being in our studio here heres always all. 13 00:00:44,280 --> 00:00:47,480 Speaker 2: Right, set us. Let's set us up for twenty twenty 14 00:00:47,520 --> 00:00:50,519 Speaker 2: six in tech, I mean the consumer electronics shows in 15 00:00:50,560 --> 00:00:52,120 Speaker 2: a couple of weeks in Vegas. I'm sure you're going 16 00:00:52,159 --> 00:00:55,080 Speaker 2: to be their huge presence there. Use my name. If 17 00:00:55,080 --> 00:00:56,680 Speaker 2: you go to Bolajia, they'll take care of you. I know. 18 00:00:57,640 --> 00:01:00,120 Speaker 3: So just you know, you say Sweeney, it'll always gets 19 00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:00,520 Speaker 3: the best. 20 00:01:01,400 --> 00:01:04,800 Speaker 2: Open stores opens. What are you thinking about twenty twenty 21 00:01:04,840 --> 00:01:05,639 Speaker 2: six year for AI? 22 00:01:06,480 --> 00:01:09,199 Speaker 3: Look, I mean obviously it starts off at Cees where 23 00:01:09,240 --> 00:01:12,240 Speaker 3: I think that Jensen's speech on that Monday is going 24 00:01:12,319 --> 00:01:15,480 Speaker 3: to set the tone tone set right in terms of 25 00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:20,200 Speaker 3: autonomous robotics, physical AI. But look, I think the reality 26 00:01:20,319 --> 00:01:22,600 Speaker 3: is is that despite a lot of the haters and 27 00:01:22,640 --> 00:01:25,959 Speaker 3: the bears and hibernation mood, it is going to be 28 00:01:26,160 --> 00:01:29,600 Speaker 3: I think just a booming year for AI and tech stocks, 29 00:01:29,800 --> 00:01:32,000 Speaker 3: especially in the first half of the year. I think 30 00:01:32,080 --> 00:01:36,319 Speaker 3: investors are underestimating, specifically on software, like we talked about 31 00:01:36,360 --> 00:01:39,560 Speaker 3: not just Palenteer, but Manga, dB Snowflake, go Out, the 32 00:01:39,600 --> 00:01:43,280 Speaker 3: infrastructure plays nebiis and some of those others. It's about 33 00:01:43,280 --> 00:01:49,400 Speaker 3: the derivative please the second, third, fourth derivatives, CrowdStrike, cybersecurity, power, Alto, 34 00:01:50,200 --> 00:01:52,320 Speaker 3: and I think what we're going to see play out 35 00:01:52,720 --> 00:01:56,200 Speaker 3: Microsoft Oracle. Look, I think we said here a year 36 00:01:56,240 --> 00:02:01,080 Speaker 3: from now, Oracle is the name that I think investors 37 00:02:01,080 --> 00:02:04,080 Speaker 3: are just throwing in the garbage. That's the one I 38 00:02:04,080 --> 00:02:07,680 Speaker 3: think investors are getting, yeah, because it's the view, like 39 00:02:09,000 --> 00:02:12,079 Speaker 3: taking on debt, open ai is not going to be 40 00:02:12,120 --> 00:02:14,240 Speaker 3: good for their bill. Look, if you look at any 41 00:02:14,520 --> 00:02:19,760 Speaker 3: open AI related tech stock, from AMD to you know, 42 00:02:19,840 --> 00:02:24,400 Speaker 3: to Microsoft to Oracle, those stocks have sold off significantly. 43 00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:27,239 Speaker 3: And I think the reality is this is an AI 44 00:02:27,400 --> 00:02:30,840 Speaker 3: revolution where you're in. We talked about the AI party. 45 00:02:30,840 --> 00:02:33,920 Speaker 3: It's ten thirty ten forty five pm. Party goes to 46 00:02:33,960 --> 00:02:36,959 Speaker 3: four am, start a nine pm and Open AI is 47 00:02:36,960 --> 00:02:38,600 Speaker 3: going to play a huge role in that in the 48 00:02:38,639 --> 00:02:42,000 Speaker 3: infrastructure build out. So to me, Paul, it's like I think, 49 00:02:42,040 --> 00:02:44,480 Speaker 3: like tech stocks, they're up twenty five percent. 50 00:02:44,400 --> 00:02:47,240 Speaker 4: Really twenty six, But I mean is that the big 51 00:02:47,360 --> 00:02:50,600 Speaker 4: names like in Vidia, because I think to myself, lots 52 00:02:50,639 --> 00:02:52,600 Speaker 4: of competition out there for them. First of all, supply 53 00:02:52,720 --> 00:02:56,079 Speaker 4: chain challenges continue, but you've also got Google and Amazon, 54 00:02:56,160 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 4: big competitors who are playing catch up with Nvidia. Can 55 00:03:00,200 --> 00:03:02,919 Speaker 4: it really hold on to that momentum in twenty twenty six. 56 00:03:02,960 --> 00:03:05,600 Speaker 3: Well, there's only one godfather of AI. He's wearing a 57 00:03:05,600 --> 00:03:08,119 Speaker 3: black leather jacket. His name's Jensen, And I think, look, 58 00:03:08,520 --> 00:03:13,040 Speaker 3: they are five years ahead of any other competitor. That's 59 00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:17,079 Speaker 3: why look for them, like even their third best chip 60 00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:22,160 Speaker 3: restricted each two hundreds right in China despite whatever the 61 00:03:22,200 --> 00:03:27,640 Speaker 3: polotic baba JD tencent, they want those chips because it 62 00:03:27,720 --> 00:03:33,000 Speaker 3: comes down to like they are so many years ahead 63 00:03:33,040 --> 00:03:36,440 Speaker 3: of competition. I think book AMD, that's going to be 64 00:03:36,480 --> 00:03:39,800 Speaker 3: a major play that we see playing out and then 65 00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:42,680 Speaker 3: I think you start to look at like what Google's doing, 66 00:03:42,840 --> 00:03:46,520 Speaker 3: what Microsoft is doing. So in this chip world, it's 67 00:03:46,520 --> 00:03:48,640 Speaker 3: in the AI arms rates. But here's the deal. For 68 00:03:48,680 --> 00:03:51,920 Speaker 3: the first time in thirty years, US is ahead of 69 00:03:52,000 --> 00:03:53,160 Speaker 3: China when it comes to tech. 70 00:03:53,480 --> 00:03:54,400 Speaker 2: How about that? 71 00:03:54,400 --> 00:03:57,360 Speaker 3: That that is I think that's really like the most 72 00:03:57,360 --> 00:03:58,760 Speaker 3: important thing here is that's it's. 73 00:03:58,600 --> 00:04:00,880 Speaker 4: Getting lost in the sauce. I feel what you just said. 74 00:04:00,760 --> 00:04:03,800 Speaker 3: What is because for so many times, like I'd be 75 00:04:03,880 --> 00:04:09,440 Speaker 3: in Taiwan eighteen hours seeing like factory fabs, then land 76 00:04:09,480 --> 00:04:12,200 Speaker 3: the newer garaport, there's some fisfied dung and donuts and 77 00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:16,600 Speaker 3: you're like, wow, we are like Sobahat now switched. 78 00:04:17,560 --> 00:04:20,000 Speaker 2: So is Opening Eye going to go public in twenty 79 00:04:20,040 --> 00:04:22,160 Speaker 2: twenty six and is that going to be a seminal event. 80 00:04:22,000 --> 00:04:26,359 Speaker 3: For I think early twenty seven? Okay, they go, they 81 00:04:26,440 --> 00:04:29,320 Speaker 3: could file maybe by the way twenty six, But but 82 00:04:29,560 --> 00:04:33,200 Speaker 3: I think that's the thing like SpaceX, you think about Anthropic, 83 00:04:33,800 --> 00:04:38,039 Speaker 3: you think about open Ai. Look, the reality is is 84 00:04:38,080 --> 00:04:42,280 Speaker 3: that you know, people talk about bubble some of the 85 00:04:42,279 --> 00:04:45,080 Speaker 3: best companies that haven't even gone public yet. And I 86 00:04:45,120 --> 00:04:49,159 Speaker 3: think there's a supply demand for big growth names. And 87 00:04:49,200 --> 00:04:53,520 Speaker 3: that's why to me, I think investors that are seeing 88 00:04:53,520 --> 00:04:57,919 Speaker 3: it's a bubble text done, they're doing it from the 89 00:04:57,920 --> 00:05:00,320 Speaker 3: twenty fifth four of New York City office building Metro 90 00:05:00,440 --> 00:05:02,960 Speaker 3: North right. I mean the reality is like for someone 91 00:05:03,000 --> 00:05:06,200 Speaker 3: like me that sees it globally, sees the demand that 92 00:05:06,240 --> 00:05:10,400 Speaker 3: supply is twelve to one for video chips today in Asia. 93 00:05:10,600 --> 00:05:12,720 Speaker 4: But here's the question is there enough energy out there 94 00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:14,560 Speaker 4: to meet that supply? Because that's one of the big 95 00:05:14,839 --> 00:05:16,159 Speaker 4: the biggest challenge going forward. 96 00:05:16,240 --> 00:05:19,320 Speaker 3: That's Look, if you think the thing to me that 97 00:05:19,440 --> 00:05:22,120 Speaker 3: like if you're just like what could spoil the AI party? 98 00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:26,599 Speaker 3: It's not about demand fourth and dust revolution. It's not 99 00:05:26,640 --> 00:05:31,479 Speaker 3: about like the use cases. It's energy and regulation. And 100 00:05:31,560 --> 00:05:35,400 Speaker 3: look energy, that's why like you know, you look what's 101 00:05:35,400 --> 00:05:38,080 Speaker 3: happening a nuclear You saw the TAE deal with you 102 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:40,920 Speaker 3: know obviously trum media. You saw what Google's doing in 103 00:05:41,040 --> 00:05:43,960 Speaker 3: terms of them buying their own energy company. I mean, 104 00:05:45,160 --> 00:05:48,440 Speaker 3: energy is the biggest restriction in the US. But I 105 00:05:48,480 --> 00:05:51,039 Speaker 3: continue to believe like nuclear is going to be the 106 00:05:51,040 --> 00:05:51,599 Speaker 3: play there. 107 00:05:52,520 --> 00:05:55,640 Speaker 2: See Yes, it's two and fifty three undred thousand people 108 00:05:55,800 --> 00:05:58,240 Speaker 2: to send on Vegas Ford and it's been going there 109 00:05:58,279 --> 00:06:00,960 Speaker 2: for forty years, I've been going to this thing. This 110 00:06:01,040 --> 00:06:05,960 Speaker 2: one feels like we might get like a seminal announcement 111 00:06:06,160 --> 00:06:09,320 Speaker 2: coming out of this, whether it's a product, service, an investment, 112 00:06:09,480 --> 00:06:12,200 Speaker 2: a deal. It just feels like maybe this CEES might 113 00:06:12,240 --> 00:06:15,120 Speaker 2: be something where something really material pops out of there. 114 00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:18,800 Speaker 3: Yes, I agree, because like look, for so many years, 115 00:06:18,800 --> 00:06:21,880 Speaker 3: CEES is like, oh, a great refrigerator that talks to you, 116 00:06:22,400 --> 00:06:27,240 Speaker 3: a cool drone that now it's really become like central 117 00:06:28,080 --> 00:06:30,480 Speaker 3: to the when you think about the AI revolution, I 118 00:06:30,520 --> 00:06:32,400 Speaker 3: think when you do about chips, when you look what's 119 00:06:32,400 --> 00:06:36,159 Speaker 3: coming out of AMD, I think Nvidia is really gonna 120 00:06:36,160 --> 00:06:39,800 Speaker 3: double down on robotics. I think quantum is another one. 121 00:06:39,839 --> 00:06:41,839 Speaker 3: If you go back a year ago, that's where Jensen 122 00:06:41,960 --> 00:06:44,320 Speaker 3: was sort of quantums, Like ten fifteen years away, Qualm 123 00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:46,400 Speaker 3: stocks sold up. I actually think there's gonna be a 124 00:06:46,440 --> 00:06:49,239 Speaker 3: lot more bullish when it comes to quantum. And look, 125 00:06:49,400 --> 00:06:51,760 Speaker 3: I know half the companies that I know that are 126 00:06:51,800 --> 00:06:55,960 Speaker 3: going there. They're not officially there. Why they go in there. 127 00:06:56,000 --> 00:06:58,680 Speaker 3: They're not going there to you know, to go to 128 00:06:58,760 --> 00:07:00,599 Speaker 3: the Cosmo or go to the wind for dinner. They're 129 00:07:00,640 --> 00:07:03,599 Speaker 3: going because they're looking. They're looking for acquisitions. 130 00:07:03,640 --> 00:07:06,680 Speaker 2: I kind of feel like during CS if I talked 131 00:07:06,680 --> 00:07:08,880 Speaker 2: to a CEO, I think my first question is could 132 00:07:08,920 --> 00:07:11,240 Speaker 2: be why you're not in Vegas? Like, I don't care 133 00:07:11,280 --> 00:07:12,840 Speaker 2: what business you're in. I'm in the pain. 134 00:07:12,920 --> 00:07:16,360 Speaker 4: You're touched by the technology. 135 00:07:15,480 --> 00:07:18,680 Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly. But to Paul's point, it's this isn't just 136 00:07:18,760 --> 00:07:25,240 Speaker 3: about like consumer gadgets one hundred inch televisions that somehow 137 00:07:25,320 --> 00:07:28,960 Speaker 3: talk to you. Now it's really become central to like 138 00:07:29,280 --> 00:07:32,080 Speaker 3: where the technology. Think about the Chinese presence there in 139 00:07:32,160 --> 00:07:35,400 Speaker 3: terms of X paying bid everyone else. You think about 140 00:07:35,400 --> 00:07:39,000 Speaker 3: autonomous robotics, and that's why, like I think the one 141 00:07:39,080 --> 00:07:41,600 Speaker 3: thing like to stress to anyone listening is like this 142 00:07:41,720 --> 00:07:42,280 Speaker 3: is AI. 143 00:07:42,400 --> 00:07:42,920 Speaker 2: It's not just. 144 00:07:42,840 --> 00:07:46,160 Speaker 3: About like chat, GPT, but what mile do you use? 145 00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:49,840 Speaker 3: We are now this is the year Apple goes deep 146 00:07:49,880 --> 00:07:51,680 Speaker 3: thousands of deep end and pool when it comes to 147 00:07:51,680 --> 00:07:54,600 Speaker 3: a on the consumer side, we're now going to hit 148 00:07:54,680 --> 00:07:58,200 Speaker 3: the next level of the AI revolution. But this is 149 00:07:58,240 --> 00:08:02,080 Speaker 3: a nineteen ninety six moment, noine, nineteen ninety nine, two 150 00:08:02,120 --> 00:08:03,119 Speaker 3: thousand bubble moments. 151 00:08:03,200 --> 00:08:06,880 Speaker 4: Yes, thankfully. Do we expect a big China presence at 152 00:08:06,880 --> 00:08:09,600 Speaker 4: this thing given the relationship right now between the US 153 00:08:09,640 --> 00:08:10,120 Speaker 4: and China. 154 00:08:10,160 --> 00:08:14,600 Speaker 3: If you're a China tech company, you have to come here. 155 00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:17,320 Speaker 3: And I think, like when I think about like the 156 00:08:17,320 --> 00:08:20,400 Speaker 3: Presidence last year, that was already significant. This year it 157 00:08:20,520 --> 00:08:24,560 Speaker 3: is it's booming because for them, okay, like they're not 158 00:08:24,600 --> 00:08:27,280 Speaker 3: going to be able to sell into the US at 159 00:08:27,320 --> 00:08:30,400 Speaker 3: least currently, but this for them, it's a flex to 160 00:08:30,520 --> 00:08:33,280 Speaker 3: muscles on the global stage in terms of them selling 161 00:08:33,440 --> 00:08:38,319 Speaker 3: South America, Europe, Australia. I mean that is that world 162 00:08:38,320 --> 00:08:40,920 Speaker 3: descends upon the stay. We're right, because when you this 163 00:08:40,960 --> 00:08:44,200 Speaker 3: is the world event. But to Paul's point, like if 164 00:08:44,240 --> 00:08:48,640 Speaker 3: you're not there, it's almost like being at a wedding 165 00:08:49,120 --> 00:08:53,400 Speaker 3: at a table by the kitchen with random people instead 166 00:08:53,400 --> 00:08:55,520 Speaker 3: of being at like kind of like Paul, he's always 167 00:08:55,520 --> 00:08:57,880 Speaker 3: like front and center, like he's at the cool table. 168 00:08:58,800 --> 00:09:02,120 Speaker 2: Matt Campbell named seven teenth Penn State head football coach. 169 00:09:02,840 --> 00:09:03,400 Speaker 2: What do you think? 170 00:09:03,800 --> 00:09:07,400 Speaker 3: Look, I think Campbell like he is the right guy 171 00:09:07,440 --> 00:09:09,400 Speaker 3: for Penn State. I mean it's not just that it's 172 00:09:09,440 --> 00:09:12,360 Speaker 3: the staff he's going to bring in. He's he knows 173 00:09:12,440 --> 00:09:15,439 Speaker 3: how to recruit. I think he's the magic formula. I 174 00:09:15,440 --> 00:09:17,360 Speaker 3: think now we'll get Dan town Win from the USC 175 00:09:17,400 --> 00:09:20,160 Speaker 3: as a defensive coordinator. This is going to build the 176 00:09:20,240 --> 00:09:23,800 Speaker 3: stage to what I've like people will say next year, 177 00:09:23,800 --> 00:09:25,959 Speaker 3: I got to rebuild in here. I disagree. I think 178 00:09:26,200 --> 00:09:28,800 Speaker 3: this gets us back into the playoffs next year, and 179 00:09:28,840 --> 00:09:31,199 Speaker 3: it goes back to the dream for a Natty in 180 00:09:31,600 --> 00:09:32,960 Speaker 3: twenty seven or twenty eight. 181 00:09:33,160 --> 00:09:36,600 Speaker 2: There we go Penn State, a new cycle there as 182 00:09:36,640 --> 00:09:38,520 Speaker 2: coach Franklin moves on to Virginia Tech. We got the 183 00:09:38,800 --> 00:09:41,480 Speaker 2: Matt Campbelltoner come up there at Penn State and Dan 184 00:09:41,559 --> 00:09:44,640 Speaker 2: I very is an alument and very involved this school. 185 00:09:44,920 --> 00:09:46,760 Speaker 2: Dan I thanks so much for joining us. Is Senior Tech, 186 00:09:46,760 --> 00:09:49,440 Speaker 2: anols is web Bush Security giving us the latest thoughts there. 187 00:09:51,200 --> 00:09:54,360 Speaker 2: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 188 00:10:00,559 --> 00:10:04,160 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live 189 00:10:04,240 --> 00:10:07,760 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am. E'stern listen on Apple, 190 00:10:07,800 --> 00:10:11,160 Speaker 1: Karplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or 191 00:10:11,280 --> 00:10:12,760 Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube. 192 00:10:12,920 --> 00:10:16,000 Speaker 4: Let's talk a little geopolitics, because goodness knows, there is 193 00:10:16,040 --> 00:10:18,000 Speaker 4: a bunch of stuff happening all the time. And our 194 00:10:18,040 --> 00:10:22,360 Speaker 4: next guest says, geopolitics is no longer background noise. It 195 00:10:22,440 --> 00:10:26,400 Speaker 4: is now a core pricing mechanism in global markets. So 196 00:10:26,480 --> 00:10:29,200 Speaker 4: let's dig in with Patrick Murphy, his executive director of 197 00:10:29,240 --> 00:10:33,880 Speaker 4: Geopolitical Advisors at Hillco Global. Patrick, thanks so much for 198 00:10:33,920 --> 00:10:38,559 Speaker 4: being with us, just an overview here on I mean, 199 00:10:38,720 --> 00:10:41,679 Speaker 4: right now on the hot seat, we've got Trump talking 200 00:10:41,679 --> 00:10:44,760 Speaker 4: to net and Yahoo, Trump talking to Putin and to Zelenski. 201 00:10:45,080 --> 00:10:50,040 Speaker 4: How are those big talks playing out in the stock market. 202 00:10:51,400 --> 00:10:53,960 Speaker 5: Oh well, at first, Alex bol thanks for having me on. 203 00:10:54,360 --> 00:10:56,880 Speaker 5: It's playing big time because you know, when we look 204 00:10:56,880 --> 00:10:59,520 Speaker 5: at geopolitics, it's now not just background noise as you mentioned, 205 00:10:59,559 --> 00:11:04,520 Speaker 5: it's really we're pricing mechanism out there. So these geopolitical things, 206 00:11:04,559 --> 00:11:06,920 Speaker 5: I mean especially at least when you look at our 207 00:11:06,960 --> 00:11:10,760 Speaker 5: shipping costs from last year of three hundred percent, why 208 00:11:10,960 --> 00:11:14,960 Speaker 5: because we're the attacks against the shipping lanes there, especially 209 00:11:15,000 --> 00:11:17,560 Speaker 5: in the Red Sea, So in those certain routes, shipping 210 00:11:17,559 --> 00:11:20,280 Speaker 5: costs going up three hundred percent. So you know when 211 00:11:20,280 --> 00:11:24,040 Speaker 5: you say four hundred forty percent of the world's container 212 00:11:24,080 --> 00:11:26,880 Speaker 5: traffic comes from that region, that's a big deal. So 213 00:11:26,880 --> 00:11:29,600 Speaker 5: that's why you solved. The United States and UK joined 214 00:11:29,640 --> 00:11:32,400 Speaker 5: forces and what we call it Operation rough Rider to 215 00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:36,000 Speaker 5: attack the Sudi huthis there to put them back on 216 00:11:36,080 --> 00:11:38,760 Speaker 5: our heels. But it's still a volatile region. So that's 217 00:11:38,760 --> 00:11:41,920 Speaker 5: why this at the end of twenty twenty five, we 218 00:11:42,000 --> 00:11:44,800 Speaker 5: need to make sure that we are moving the ball forward, 219 00:11:45,240 --> 00:11:50,080 Speaker 5: hopefully some peace so we can just continue this. You know, 220 00:11:50,720 --> 00:11:52,440 Speaker 5: economy that's moving in the right direction. 221 00:11:53,160 --> 00:11:55,680 Speaker 2: Patrick, you're a young guy, but many you've done a 222 00:11:55,679 --> 00:11:58,000 Speaker 2: lot in your life. I mean, this dude a rack 223 00:11:58,360 --> 00:12:00,720 Speaker 2: a served US Army. Okay, so thank you for your 224 00:12:00,760 --> 00:12:05,839 Speaker 2: servicer in a rack in Bosnia, thirty second Undersecretary of 225 00:12:05,840 --> 00:12:07,840 Speaker 2: the Army. Not even sure what that means, but it 226 00:12:07,960 --> 00:12:11,800 Speaker 2: sounds really cool. Served in the US House of Representatives. 227 00:12:12,200 --> 00:12:14,240 Speaker 2: I mean, the dudes had like three lives and he's 228 00:12:14,240 --> 00:12:15,520 Speaker 2: still young men very cool. 229 00:12:15,600 --> 00:12:17,559 Speaker 5: Well, I drink a lot of coffee, My friend drink 230 00:12:17,600 --> 00:12:19,080 Speaker 5: a lot of coffee. 231 00:12:19,520 --> 00:12:24,040 Speaker 2: Pat When you when you talk to corporations out there, executives, 232 00:12:24,240 --> 00:12:28,679 Speaker 2: they did they understand that you know this, they really 233 00:12:28,720 --> 00:12:32,839 Speaker 2: are impacted by geopolitics because I think we as consumers 234 00:12:32,840 --> 00:12:35,199 Speaker 2: and investors, we learned that the hard way during kind 235 00:12:35,200 --> 00:12:37,120 Speaker 2: of the pandemic, if you will, we Cas said, boy, 236 00:12:37,200 --> 00:12:39,000 Speaker 2: that's global supply chains pretty fragile. 237 00:12:39,600 --> 00:12:41,400 Speaker 5: Yeah, No, doubt about it. And I think what you're 238 00:12:41,440 --> 00:12:44,280 Speaker 5: seeing Paul is markets are rewarding resilience. 239 00:12:44,360 --> 00:12:45,240 Speaker 2: You look, look at the numbers. 240 00:12:45,240 --> 00:12:48,120 Speaker 5: I'm a numbers guy, right, So seventy percent of global 241 00:12:48,120 --> 00:12:53,120 Speaker 5: manufacturing their manufacturer basically like they're saying, hey, we want 242 00:12:53,160 --> 00:12:55,800 Speaker 5: to make sure that we are increasing on shore or 243 00:12:55,880 --> 00:12:58,400 Speaker 5: near shore. Why because they want to make sure that 244 00:12:58,679 --> 00:13:01,640 Speaker 5: you know, they're moving from just in time basically inventory 245 00:13:01,679 --> 00:13:04,960 Speaker 5: models to make sure they're being replaced by hybrid systems. 246 00:13:05,280 --> 00:13:08,880 Speaker 5: So sixty percent basically a saty stock, right because we 247 00:13:08,920 --> 00:13:11,600 Speaker 5: saw the work COVID when they were hurting, they weren't 248 00:13:11,640 --> 00:13:14,920 Speaker 5: able to react and produce for their customers. So that's 249 00:13:14,960 --> 00:13:18,840 Speaker 5: what Hillco does. And we're phenomenal and basically excelling for 250 00:13:18,920 --> 00:13:21,440 Speaker 5: our clients where we say, hey, let's make sure that 251 00:13:21,480 --> 00:13:25,520 Speaker 5: we're doing pricing and repositioning when you look at these 252 00:13:25,679 --> 00:13:31,040 Speaker 5: jew political dislocations, particularly though where the public policy collides 253 00:13:31,360 --> 00:13:34,080 Speaker 5: with private capital. So you know we are best in 254 00:13:34,080 --> 00:13:35,760 Speaker 5: the world at this. I'm excited to be part of 255 00:13:35,760 --> 00:13:37,920 Speaker 5: this team. I love being part of the army team, Paul. 256 00:13:37,960 --> 00:13:40,400 Speaker 5: As you mentioned, I was a soldier in Iraq, professor 257 00:13:40,400 --> 00:13:43,599 Speaker 5: at West Point, and I was at the undersectar is 258 00:13:43,640 --> 00:13:45,280 Speaker 5: basically the COO of the army, and I was the 259 00:13:45,320 --> 00:13:48,320 Speaker 5: acting start to the Army. But now I'm with the 260 00:13:48,360 --> 00:13:50,880 Speaker 5: great team at Hellco Global and you know, as a 261 00:13:50,880 --> 00:13:54,720 Speaker 5: part time professor at West Point. I'm sorry at Whartonell, 262 00:13:55,120 --> 00:13:58,160 Speaker 5: but it's just an exciting time to be a geopolitics 263 00:13:58,200 --> 00:14:00,559 Speaker 5: and make sure we're helping our clients be ahead of 264 00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:00,960 Speaker 5: the curve. 265 00:14:01,280 --> 00:14:02,719 Speaker 4: I like how we just slips in there that he's 266 00:14:02,760 --> 00:14:04,880 Speaker 4: now our professor at Wharton. Sure, you have like four 267 00:14:04,920 --> 00:14:08,760 Speaker 4: careers going on here, Patrick, I'm just curious what you're 268 00:14:08,760 --> 00:14:11,720 Speaker 4: hearing from your clients and as they look at investments 269 00:14:11,720 --> 00:14:14,080 Speaker 4: through this geopolitical lens, and what are some of their 270 00:14:14,200 --> 00:14:16,680 Speaker 4: biggest concerns heading into the new year. 271 00:14:18,320 --> 00:14:20,360 Speaker 5: I think they want to make sure that there's certainty 272 00:14:20,360 --> 00:14:22,520 Speaker 5: out there, right, and I think we all come together 273 00:14:22,560 --> 00:14:25,280 Speaker 5: as the markets first to make sure that we're speaking 274 00:14:25,320 --> 00:14:27,960 Speaker 5: in one voice. You know, we used to say politics 275 00:14:28,040 --> 00:14:31,720 Speaker 5: should end at our water's edge. We know that might 276 00:14:31,760 --> 00:14:33,800 Speaker 5: be trite and not necessarily the case in this And 277 00:14:33,840 --> 00:14:37,120 Speaker 5: I served in Congress when I came back from Iraq, 278 00:14:38,120 --> 00:14:39,880 Speaker 5: and you know I saw in the Pentagon, but there 279 00:14:39,960 --> 00:14:41,800 Speaker 5: aren't a lot of folks out there that just want 280 00:14:42,120 --> 00:14:45,440 Speaker 5: certainty so it can make the right decisions. But Alexis, 281 00:14:45,480 --> 00:14:49,520 Speaker 5: what you're seeing is that there's a massive public private partnership. 282 00:14:49,720 --> 00:14:52,840 Speaker 5: What does that mean? That means like industrial policy is 283 00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:56,240 Speaker 5: being reshaped out there, from chips to ships. What does 284 00:14:56,280 --> 00:14:58,440 Speaker 5: that mean? That means that you're seeing things like the 285 00:14:58,560 --> 00:15:01,680 Speaker 5: Chips Act, right, Yeah, was tens of billions of dollars 286 00:15:01,680 --> 00:15:07,200 Speaker 5: of government investment, but that triggered three hundred billion an investment, 287 00:15:07,640 --> 00:15:10,320 Speaker 5: and with semiconductor industry that's a positive thing. But it's 288 00:15:10,320 --> 00:15:12,960 Speaker 5: not just in semi conductors, not just with chimps. It's 289 00:15:13,000 --> 00:15:17,200 Speaker 5: also in defense. You saw in this administration they just 290 00:15:17,280 --> 00:15:19,960 Speaker 5: passed a bill that is going to provide two hundred 291 00:15:20,080 --> 00:15:23,000 Speaker 5: billion dollars to the Department of Defense now called the 292 00:15:23,040 --> 00:15:26,280 Speaker 5: Department of War, to what's called their Office of Strategic 293 00:15:26,320 --> 00:15:30,320 Speaker 5: Capital to develop these public fire partnerships. So you're seeing 294 00:15:30,560 --> 00:15:32,400 Speaker 5: the government put in there that's again two hundred billion 295 00:15:32,760 --> 00:15:34,120 Speaker 5: is over the next four years. 296 00:15:34,280 --> 00:15:37,000 Speaker 3: But then you're seeing JP Morgan Jay. 297 00:15:36,840 --> 00:15:39,320 Speaker 5: Say, hey, we're going to make sure we put one 298 00:15:39,360 --> 00:15:42,320 Speaker 5: point five try dollars an investment what they're calling a 299 00:15:42,440 --> 00:15:46,480 Speaker 5: resiliency and Security Initiative where they're making sure that they're 300 00:15:46,480 --> 00:15:50,200 Speaker 5: added the curve too, because why because in defense last 301 00:15:50,240 --> 00:15:54,680 Speaker 5: year two point four to four trillion dollars in defense spending, 302 00:15:54,840 --> 00:15:58,800 Speaker 5: right where there's this recount calibration with you know, basically 303 00:15:58,880 --> 00:16:01,640 Speaker 5: world powers to make sure that you know, to do 304 00:16:01,680 --> 00:16:04,200 Speaker 5: what's necessary to keep their family safe, and they have 305 00:16:04,360 --> 00:16:08,680 Speaker 5: security goals. NATO specifically, he's all about. They're supposially now 306 00:16:08,720 --> 00:16:12,600 Speaker 5: hitting three point five percent of their GDP and defense spending, 307 00:16:12,840 --> 00:16:16,120 Speaker 5: some countries like Germany blowing past four percent. So you're 308 00:16:16,160 --> 00:16:22,440 Speaker 5: seeing this real recaliber caliberation going on and it's exciting 309 00:16:22,520 --> 00:16:24,040 Speaker 5: to be part of it. And that's what our clients want. 310 00:16:24,080 --> 00:16:28,400 Speaker 5: They want the data that's going to affect their bottom line. 311 00:16:28,440 --> 00:16:30,440 Speaker 5: It's gonna affect their customers to make sure they're head 312 00:16:30,480 --> 00:16:32,320 Speaker 5: to curve and sleep with the wheel. 313 00:16:32,840 --> 00:16:37,520 Speaker 2: Patrick, we've seen some movement towards near shoring, friends shoring, 314 00:16:37,680 --> 00:16:40,160 Speaker 2: on shoring, all that type of stuff of various parts 315 00:16:40,160 --> 00:16:43,440 Speaker 2: of the economy. Does that signal that globalization is dead? 316 00:16:45,480 --> 00:16:48,000 Speaker 5: I wouldn't say it's dead. I think we had an 317 00:16:48,000 --> 00:16:50,200 Speaker 5: air of globalization and now we have an era of 318 00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:57,160 Speaker 5: basically strategic I would say fragmentation where you're having a 319 00:16:57,160 --> 00:17:00,960 Speaker 5: clear alignment with countries that are aligned with their values 320 00:17:01,400 --> 00:17:04,080 Speaker 5: toward each other. And I think you're going to see that, 321 00:17:04,520 --> 00:17:07,280 Speaker 5: you know, moving forward, and that's why you know they're 322 00:17:07,280 --> 00:17:13,280 Speaker 5: protecting you basically the supplying channels out there. I've already 323 00:17:13,280 --> 00:17:17,000 Speaker 5: mentioned that shipping container routes, especially dealing with you know, 324 00:17:17,040 --> 00:17:18,840 Speaker 5: the red seat as who has canal, But I think 325 00:17:18,880 --> 00:17:22,400 Speaker 5: you're also seeing it on making sure that they're really 326 00:17:22,440 --> 00:17:28,480 Speaker 5: evaluating the market specifically really valuing Paul, the basically resiliency 327 00:17:29,320 --> 00:17:32,240 Speaker 5: that we haven't seen before because they understand that things 328 00:17:32,240 --> 00:17:35,240 Speaker 5: could change on a dime. And I think that's where 329 00:17:35,640 --> 00:17:38,159 Speaker 5: at HOPKA we really excel on that, you know, the 330 00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:42,800 Speaker 5: pricing and repositioningid these geopolitical dislocations that we're seeing out 331 00:17:42,800 --> 00:17:46,720 Speaker 5: there and so and it's not partisan, Paul, I mean 332 00:17:46,760 --> 00:17:50,919 Speaker 5: because he saw on their President Biden about sixteen million 333 00:17:50,920 --> 00:17:53,040 Speaker 5: new jobs and it's four years, but one point five 334 00:17:53,080 --> 00:17:56,600 Speaker 5: million jobs in manufacturing, and they're seeing President Trump now 335 00:17:56,600 --> 00:18:01,440 Speaker 5: doubled down on American manufacturing and you know, I think 336 00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:04,600 Speaker 5: it's going to be here to stay, you know, moving forward. Yep. 337 00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:06,560 Speaker 2: All right, Patrick, thank you so much for joining us 338 00:18:06,560 --> 00:18:10,840 Speaker 2: really appreciate it. Patrick Murphy, He's the executive director Geopolitical Advisors. 339 00:18:11,240 --> 00:18:16,520 Speaker 2: The firm is Hillco Global. Stay with us. More from 340 00:18:16,560 --> 00:18:18,720 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 341 00:18:24,920 --> 00:18:28,520 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us Live 342 00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:31,720 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 343 00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:35,240 Speaker 1: Apple Karplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, 344 00:18:35,400 --> 00:18:37,120 Speaker 1: or watch US Live on YouTube. 345 00:18:37,320 --> 00:18:41,280 Speaker 2: Alonso Munos Droids is here, Chief Investment Officer, Hamilton Capital Partners. Alonso, 346 00:18:41,359 --> 00:18:43,480 Speaker 2: you sit down with your clients here and you say, boy, 347 00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:46,639 Speaker 2: we had a good twenty twenty five. Stocks, Euro up 348 00:18:46,920 --> 00:18:51,440 Speaker 2: fifteen to twenty percent, high single digit returns on your 349 00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:54,399 Speaker 2: fixed income investments. Commodities have been ripping, like we just 350 00:18:54,440 --> 00:18:57,560 Speaker 2: mentioned gold and silver. What's the conversation for twenty twenty 351 00:18:57,560 --> 00:18:58,399 Speaker 2: six with your clients? 352 00:18:58,480 --> 00:19:00,560 Speaker 6: Good morning, Paul, going to be here. Can't the markets 353 00:19:00,600 --> 00:19:03,000 Speaker 6: close everything? We're done? No, Look, I think we have 354 00:19:03,080 --> 00:19:04,879 Speaker 6: to be sanguine about the fact that there may be 355 00:19:04,920 --> 00:19:07,320 Speaker 6: some volatility next year. We have some big catalysts that 356 00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:10,399 Speaker 6: we're looking forward to, like FED policy, FED rate cuts 357 00:19:10,400 --> 00:19:13,159 Speaker 6: maybe in January, maybe not a lot of the expectations 358 00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:15,320 Speaker 6: or that the Fed's now going to pull back. We're 359 00:19:15,320 --> 00:19:17,800 Speaker 6: looking at the Supreme Court and what they do with tariffs. 360 00:19:17,800 --> 00:19:19,680 Speaker 6: I think that's a big deal, and so I think 361 00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:21,919 Speaker 6: we're going to be, you know, really open to next year. 362 00:19:21,960 --> 00:19:23,480 Speaker 6: We're keeping a little bit of cash on hand, but 363 00:19:23,480 --> 00:19:25,280 Speaker 6: we're going to stay on the AI trade. I think 364 00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:27,040 Speaker 6: that's what we're going to do going into next year. 365 00:19:27,600 --> 00:19:30,960 Speaker 4: So you're staying on the AI trains, as you said 366 00:19:30,960 --> 00:19:32,800 Speaker 4: in your note. But if you're also holding onto some 367 00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:35,280 Speaker 4: dry powder, where are you looking for those other opportunities? 368 00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:36,119 Speaker 4: Where might they be? 369 00:19:36,359 --> 00:19:36,800 Speaker 2: Alexis. 370 00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:38,960 Speaker 6: I think what we've been doing and our thought logic 371 00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:40,760 Speaker 6: going in next year is to buy the back end 372 00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:43,199 Speaker 6: of the yield curve of the US treagery curve, just 373 00:19:43,240 --> 00:19:44,919 Speaker 6: to lock in some of those rates or clients. We 374 00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:47,440 Speaker 6: expect that rates will start to come down maybe next year. 375 00:19:47,520 --> 00:19:49,560 Speaker 6: We saw that the unemployment rate moved up to four 376 00:19:49,600 --> 00:19:52,800 Speaker 6: point six, so there's a balance on Hey, everything's great. 377 00:19:52,840 --> 00:19:55,359 Speaker 6: GDP was really strong, there's a lot of money flowing 378 00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:57,320 Speaker 6: into this market with there are a lot of folks 379 00:19:57,320 --> 00:20:00,159 Speaker 6: struggling out there too. The unemployment rate is rising. The 380 00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:02,840 Speaker 6: FED is backed into a quarter, Jerome Palace on his 381 00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:04,760 Speaker 6: way out. So we're thinking about about a lot of 382 00:20:04,760 --> 00:20:06,800 Speaker 6: things for us right now. It's lock in some of 383 00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:10,320 Speaker 6: these rates, put in a simple hedge, and go into 384 00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:12,280 Speaker 6: next year, although you know, with some risk, with a 385 00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:13,400 Speaker 6: lot of optimism as well. 386 00:20:14,160 --> 00:20:15,720 Speaker 2: I see you know some of your core holdings at 387 00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:20,119 Speaker 2: your firm, Google, Tesla, Meta, We're gonna have the biggest 388 00:20:20,160 --> 00:20:22,440 Speaker 2: supporter arguably on the seal side of those types of names. 389 00:20:22,520 --> 00:20:24,600 Speaker 2: Dan Ives coming in a little bit later here this morning. 390 00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:28,120 Speaker 2: Here those stocks have been such good performers over the years. 391 00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:30,960 Speaker 2: What gives you a conviction to stay with them as 392 00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:33,760 Speaker 2: opposed to maybe, you know, maybe rotate into some other 393 00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:34,560 Speaker 2: areas well. 394 00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:36,199 Speaker 6: We're always looking forward. I mean, we don't like to 395 00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:38,520 Speaker 6: look backwards. But if you haven't owned the Big the 396 00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:41,000 Speaker 6: Megacap seven or the Max seven we used to call him, 397 00:20:41,040 --> 00:20:43,720 Speaker 6: than you've missed out on tremendous returns. And I think 398 00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:46,760 Speaker 6: for the everyday investor, for you know, folks are accumulating wealth, 399 00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:48,919 Speaker 6: you have to be in these names, these leaders that 400 00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:50,760 Speaker 6: have led in the past but are leading into the 401 00:20:50,760 --> 00:20:54,000 Speaker 6: future as well. We saw the acquisition announcement this morning 402 00:20:54,040 --> 00:20:56,879 Speaker 6: from Meta. Yep, Big deal, and I think going forward, 403 00:20:56,880 --> 00:21:00,000 Speaker 6: we have an administration that has been friendly to these companies, 404 00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:02,639 Speaker 6: and you see these the principles of these firms CosIng 405 00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:05,560 Speaker 6: up to the president. We like to allocate capital where 406 00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:08,000 Speaker 6: the capital is flowing, and we think that trade continues now. 407 00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:10,760 Speaker 4: Of course, when Facebook turned over to Meta, it kind 408 00:21:10,800 --> 00:21:13,880 Speaker 4: of screwed up the whole Fang acronym, and then more 409 00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:16,320 Speaker 4: companies were added right as well as we have the 410 00:21:16,359 --> 00:21:18,320 Speaker 4: MAC set it. I want to talk a minute about 411 00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:20,160 Speaker 4: the bond market because there's a lot of talk about 412 00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:23,840 Speaker 4: the steepening of the yield curve. Does that if you 413 00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:26,400 Speaker 4: are buying into that that's going to happen next year, 414 00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:29,080 Speaker 4: does that imply that inflation might be a problem, and 415 00:21:29,119 --> 00:21:31,439 Speaker 4: then doesn't that sort of throw a juggernaut into all 416 00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:31,720 Speaker 4: of it? 417 00:21:32,119 --> 00:21:34,000 Speaker 6: Well? I think to your point, the FED has primed 418 00:21:34,080 --> 00:21:37,680 Speaker 6: us to watch every single data point basically every day, 419 00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:39,560 Speaker 6: and so we're glued to our screens. I think as 420 00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:41,080 Speaker 6: we go on in next year, what we're seeing is 421 00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:44,679 Speaker 6: inflation not coming down specifically to that two percent target. 422 00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:46,520 Speaker 6: The economy is doing really well and the FED is 423 00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:48,760 Speaker 6: cutting rates, but the back end of the yield curve 424 00:21:48,800 --> 00:21:51,040 Speaker 6: has been pushing higher, So we start to look at 425 00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:54,639 Speaker 6: the risk, which are you the deficit, government spending, the shutdown, 426 00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:56,560 Speaker 6: the terrif us. I mean, there's a lot out there 427 00:21:56,560 --> 00:21:58,639 Speaker 6: that can drive that back into the yield curve higher. 428 00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:01,680 Speaker 6: For us, however, locking in some of those rates potentially 429 00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:03,960 Speaker 6: putting in a very simple simple hedge. We know that 430 00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:06,520 Speaker 6: the ten to twenty year traditionally does well when markets 431 00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:09,600 Speaker 6: push lower, when the momentum ships are the downside. So 432 00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:11,840 Speaker 6: for us, we kind of have a Barbelle approach. We're 433 00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:14,320 Speaker 6: locking in some good yields. You know, there's a lot 434 00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:16,600 Speaker 6: of cash in money markets, seven plus trillion dollars in 435 00:22:16,680 --> 00:22:18,600 Speaker 6: money markets, So where does that money go as rates 436 00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:19,840 Speaker 6: go down into the low threes? 437 00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:24,040 Speaker 2: Hot tuoes alternatives? What are your clients? How much exposure 438 00:22:24,080 --> 00:22:26,880 Speaker 2: do they want two alternatives? And then what's that discussion 439 00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:27,680 Speaker 2: like with your clients? 440 00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:30,119 Speaker 6: Well, you know, I think it's difficult because these big 441 00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:33,760 Speaker 6: asset managers, the alternative asset managers, have made a huge 442 00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:35,679 Speaker 6: push to bring this to four to one k's to 443 00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:38,800 Speaker 6: the everyday investor, and they come with risk, you know, 444 00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:42,919 Speaker 6: lack of liquidity, client sophistication on understanding these products. But 445 00:22:43,240 --> 00:22:45,040 Speaker 6: We've had a lot of conversations. We've actually been in 446 00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:47,760 Speaker 6: private credit for some time, and we think that trade 447 00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:51,160 Speaker 6: continues and if anything, it's coming to four to one k's, 448 00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:53,440 Speaker 6: it's coming to the everyday investor in the form of vtfs. 449 00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:57,040 Speaker 6: We've seen tremendous amounts of vtfs launched with these products, 450 00:22:57,080 --> 00:22:58,479 Speaker 6: and I think we'll have to wait and see how 451 00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:00,680 Speaker 6: this plays out at the retail investor level. 452 00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:03,760 Speaker 4: You talk about hedging, A lot of folks see the 453 00:23:03,800 --> 00:23:06,560 Speaker 4: precious metals as a hedge, and lately they've been acting 454 00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:08,840 Speaker 4: more like meme stocks. So what do you do with 455 00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:11,480 Speaker 4: precious metals because some thought, you know, yesterday's biggest drop 456 00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:14,719 Speaker 4: in silver in five years was more than just a 457 00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:16,720 Speaker 4: bit of a correction. It was like, you know what, 458 00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:19,080 Speaker 4: we're going to reset and maybe we're not going higher here. 459 00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:20,400 Speaker 2: That's right, Well, I left. 460 00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:23,520 Speaker 6: I think the goldbugs are finally right everyone that told 461 00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:25,760 Speaker 6: us to buy gold. Now. When we talked to investors 462 00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:28,719 Speaker 6: about commodities, commodities have always had a place in a portfolio, 463 00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:31,640 Speaker 6: typically five to ten percent, as you guys have talked about, 464 00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:34,200 Speaker 6: but we also warned folks that when we chase these 465 00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:36,520 Speaker 6: trends just like twenty twenty one, whether it's meme stocks 466 00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:39,200 Speaker 6: or technology stocks, or in this case gold and silver, 467 00:23:40,080 --> 00:23:42,000 Speaker 6: you know, it can lead about outcomes for investors that 468 00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:44,480 Speaker 6: aren't willing to hold these positions for long term. So 469 00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:46,560 Speaker 6: it is fun to see. It is sort of fun 470 00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:49,800 Speaker 6: in conversation. And I think there's a supply demand global 471 00:23:49,840 --> 00:23:52,560 Speaker 6: supply demand dynamic at play here for gold and for silver, 472 00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:55,280 Speaker 6: and for some of these rare earth corals copper that 473 00:23:55,400 --> 00:23:58,240 Speaker 6: are inputs to data centers, to chips, to all these 474 00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:00,240 Speaker 6: things that we're talking about that are exciting about. Yeah, 475 00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:00,640 Speaker 6: I trade. 476 00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:04,479 Speaker 2: So we've had I would say, really good earnings environment 477 00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:07,879 Speaker 2: supporting stocks and bonds. Do you think earnings are going 478 00:24:07,920 --> 00:24:10,600 Speaker 2: to continue to be strong enough to support these markets here? 479 00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:12,520 Speaker 6: So we think that earnings are going to be good, 480 00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:14,800 Speaker 6: I think the bar continues to be pushed so high 481 00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:18,760 Speaker 6: that when companies don't absolutely smoke earnings, you see really 482 00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:21,000 Speaker 6: big price reaction. And I know, you guys, maybe we'll 483 00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:24,040 Speaker 6: remember this. Prior to COVID, if we had an up down, 484 00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:25,800 Speaker 6: you know, one and a half percent in the market 485 00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:27,640 Speaker 6: at the broad index, we would all freak out. 486 00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:28,360 Speaker 2: Now it's just. 487 00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:31,919 Speaker 6: A normal, normal Monday, normal Tuesday. So we're looking at 488 00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:34,040 Speaker 6: that volatility. I think, you know, going into next year, 489 00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:36,520 Speaker 6: we're just open to the fact that, you know, earnings 490 00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:39,120 Speaker 6: will be good, but we could see some broader volatility, 491 00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:41,600 Speaker 6: specifically within these names that have been that have been 492 00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:42,600 Speaker 6: hot for the last time. 493 00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:44,800 Speaker 4: And it really has been good. Is just not good enough, 494 00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:47,320 Speaker 4: especially when you're talking about some specific names. It's been 495 00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:50,560 Speaker 4: like that for a while. Now, what about IPO market, 496 00:24:50,840 --> 00:24:52,600 Speaker 4: M and A. Lots of folks we're talking to seeing 497 00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:54,200 Speaker 4: bullish in those two areas. 498 00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:56,280 Speaker 6: Very much so. I mean banks, a lot of bank 499 00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:58,600 Speaker 6: mergers this year. I mean, we've seen some really big, 500 00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:01,480 Speaker 6: sort of flashy eye and M and A's announces share 501 00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:04,160 Speaker 6: and we think that continues. The market was basically frozen 502 00:25:04,280 --> 00:25:06,320 Speaker 6: for two years, you know, when the FED was in 503 00:25:06,359 --> 00:25:09,399 Speaker 6: their rate hiking cycles. So this is sort of a reopening, 504 00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:11,600 Speaker 6: a breath of fresh air to see some of these 505 00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:14,200 Speaker 6: deals take place and hopefully a lot of money money 506 00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:14,880 Speaker 6: to be made. 507 00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:18,440 Speaker 2: You're based on in Atlanta, Atlanta, Georgia. I'm just gonna 508 00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:20,880 Speaker 2: guess watch this, Okay, I guess without even asking. 509 00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:21,440 Speaker 1: Peachtree. 510 00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:22,320 Speaker 6: We're on Peachtree. 511 00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:26,120 Speaker 2: There you go, what are your clients asking you these days, 512 00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:27,960 Speaker 2: what's the biggest concern for them these days? 513 00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:30,040 Speaker 6: You know, I think that a lot of clients are 514 00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:32,200 Speaker 6: wondering when rates are going to come down. You know, 515 00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:35,160 Speaker 6: a lot of folks still have mortgages, they have credit cards, 516 00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:37,400 Speaker 6: they have auto loans. And what we're seeing, and part 517 00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:39,199 Speaker 6: of that dynamic is the economy is great in the 518 00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:41,520 Speaker 6: Fed's cutting rates, but that back into the yield curve 519 00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:43,800 Speaker 6: is sort of anchored in the in the low force 520 00:25:43,880 --> 00:25:46,359 Speaker 6: mid forced. So we're talking a lot about estate planning. 521 00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:48,920 Speaker 6: We're talking a lot about how to allocate fresh capital 522 00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:51,199 Speaker 6: with markets at all time highs. We're talking a lot 523 00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:53,399 Speaker 6: about gold and how to melt gold and sell gold, 524 00:25:53,400 --> 00:25:56,440 Speaker 6: and you know, but it's they're exciting conversations. You know, 525 00:25:56,480 --> 00:25:57,800 Speaker 6: a lot of people have done really well in the 526 00:25:57,800 --> 00:25:59,880 Speaker 6: market and so looking to rebalance in the new year, 527 00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:02,600 Speaker 6: maybe get some exposure out of tech to financials and 528 00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:06,320 Speaker 6: healthcare sectors that haven't done you know, specifically, as well 529 00:26:06,320 --> 00:26:07,840 Speaker 6: as technology and consumer discretion. 530 00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:10,080 Speaker 2: Alanza, thank you so much for joining us. Really appreciate 531 00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:12,479 Speaker 2: it a lot. Some MNOs. He's a chief investment officer 532 00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:17,920 Speaker 2: Hamilton Hamilton Capital Partners. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg 533 00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:19,639 Speaker 2: Surveillance coming up after this. 534 00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:29,440 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live 535 00:26:29,520 --> 00:26:32,679 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 536 00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:36,439 Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or 537 00:26:36,560 --> 00:26:38,080 Speaker 1: watch us Live on YouTube. 538 00:26:38,480 --> 00:26:41,719 Speaker 2: It's an election year that has a lot of ramifications 539 00:26:41,760 --> 00:26:44,399 Speaker 2: for a lot of parts of this economy, in this 540 00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:48,320 Speaker 2: markets and what does it mean for Republicans, Democrats and investors. 541 00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:51,440 Speaker 2: Coming out over gothamcconda joints us here lecture of Management 542 00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:53,760 Speaker 2: Practice at the Yale School of Management. He's also now 543 00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:58,120 Speaker 2: a Bloomberg opinion contributor here. So you know, we got 544 00:26:58,119 --> 00:27:03,080 Speaker 2: the midterm elections here, typically got the party that's not 545 00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:05,160 Speaker 2: in the White House tends to do better in these 546 00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:09,000 Speaker 2: midterm elections. I'm hearing reporting that that may occur this 547 00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:10,560 Speaker 2: time as well. How do you guys see it? 548 00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:12,880 Speaker 7: No, I think that's right, and that's the general tendency. 549 00:27:12,920 --> 00:27:14,800 Speaker 7: And you got a layer onto that. Two other things. 550 00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:18,199 Speaker 7: One is that Donald Trump is historically unpopular. He's you know, 551 00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:20,880 Speaker 7: he's essentially never broken fifty percent other than a week 552 00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:23,600 Speaker 7: here and there, but he's really unpopular now depending on 553 00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:25,439 Speaker 7: the poll you're looking at somewhere between thirty six and 554 00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:27,920 Speaker 7: forty one. Those are all bad numbers. Okay, So when 555 00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:29,960 Speaker 7: you have a particularly unpopular presence, going to do worse. 556 00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:32,479 Speaker 7: And the second is Donald Trump's sort of secret sauce 557 00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:35,439 Speaker 7: in politics, and it is extraordinary, Let's be clear, is 558 00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:38,320 Speaker 7: his ability to get people who do not normally vote 559 00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:39,520 Speaker 7: to show up and vote for him. 560 00:27:39,960 --> 00:27:40,120 Speaker 2: Right. 561 00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:42,560 Speaker 7: We just see this at a scale that's remarkable. You 562 00:27:42,600 --> 00:27:45,359 Speaker 7: saw in Michigan, you actually saw where the Democratics under 563 00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:47,680 Speaker 7: one because thirty thousand Trump voters voted for Trump and 564 00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:51,240 Speaker 7: left the rest of the ballot blank. Right, So that 565 00:27:51,280 --> 00:27:53,879 Speaker 7: doesn't work in midterms when he is not on the ballot, 566 00:27:53,920 --> 00:27:56,480 Speaker 7: and so that puts the Republicans in an even worse situation. 567 00:27:57,080 --> 00:27:59,160 Speaker 7: Right now, what I'd say is there, and I think 568 00:27:59,160 --> 00:28:01,320 Speaker 7: there are Republicans and congress people, and I've heard this 569 00:28:01,359 --> 00:28:03,800 Speaker 7: from some who are really concerned. 570 00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:07,080 Speaker 2: They are right at the edge where. 571 00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:09,360 Speaker 7: The gerrymanders set up to protect their districts are going 572 00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:12,920 Speaker 7: to start to look weak. If Trump drops another three 573 00:28:13,119 --> 00:28:16,840 Speaker 7: four five points, you know you're gonna start to see 574 00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:20,399 Speaker 7: incumbents who thought they were essentially asleep at the switch. 575 00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:22,960 Speaker 7: We're never you know, would have to die before they 576 00:28:23,080 --> 00:28:25,840 Speaker 7: lost reelection, right, right, are going to be in trouble, 577 00:28:25,880 --> 00:28:28,080 Speaker 7: and then you're gonna you'll see a big shift in 578 00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:28,960 Speaker 7: political dynamics. 579 00:28:28,960 --> 00:28:32,000 Speaker 4: So are we already seeing those folks distance themselves or 580 00:28:32,040 --> 00:28:34,280 Speaker 4: try to distance themselves from the president? I mean, they're 581 00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:35,800 Speaker 4: sort of in a no win situation, right. 582 00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:39,320 Speaker 7: They are the extent of personal control that he exercises 583 00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:40,880 Speaker 7: over the party and the kind of ruthless way he 584 00:28:40,880 --> 00:28:43,000 Speaker 7: goes after people who go who break from him, as 585 00:28:43,040 --> 00:28:46,520 Speaker 7: Marjorie Dylor Green has experienced. There just isn't a precedent 586 00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:49,120 Speaker 7: in American history for that. This is just a new phenomenon. 587 00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:52,520 Speaker 7: But at some point they're going to start worrying about 588 00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:54,640 Speaker 7: ringing reelection and they're going to start saying, well, maybe 589 00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:56,960 Speaker 7: the primary isn't the only thing I have to worry about. 590 00:28:57,360 --> 00:28:59,720 Speaker 7: I don't think you're seeing distancing yet, and I'm actually 591 00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:02,560 Speaker 7: pretty skeptical you will. We've seen so much turnover in 592 00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:04,920 Speaker 7: the Republican Party that a lot of these people are 593 00:29:04,960 --> 00:29:07,960 Speaker 7: either genuinely true believer or purely cynical, right, Like they're 594 00:29:08,040 --> 00:29:10,840 Speaker 7: kind of one or the other. What you are, I 595 00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:13,560 Speaker 7: think likely to see is more retirements. And you know, 596 00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:15,520 Speaker 7: there are all these rumors that you're going to see 597 00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:19,480 Speaker 7: people retiring during the term, enough that Mike Johnson might 598 00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:22,200 Speaker 7: actually lose the speakership. I don't think that will happen 599 00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:25,400 Speaker 7: because the level of essentially fear that they will put 600 00:29:25,400 --> 00:29:28,120 Speaker 7: into anyone who to do that is going to be extraordinary. 601 00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:30,360 Speaker 7: But the fact that people are even talking about it 602 00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:31,240 Speaker 7: is not something on your career. 603 00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:33,440 Speaker 4: See mass retirements is what you're saying in Congress. 604 00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:37,760 Speaker 2: That being said to the extent that the Republican Party is, 605 00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:41,040 Speaker 2: you know, weakening around the edges as Trump's administration ages 606 00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:43,760 Speaker 2: here again, I have to ask the question, where are 607 00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:46,960 Speaker 2: the Democrats Who's leading the charge here? It can't be 608 00:29:47,040 --> 00:29:48,360 Speaker 2: Chuck Schumer. No. 609 00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:51,280 Speaker 7: I think the extent of the generational shift that's hitting 610 00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:55,080 Speaker 7: the Democratic Party is profound, and this is going to 611 00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:57,800 Speaker 7: have long lasting effects in American politics. This is not 612 00:29:57,920 --> 00:30:00,600 Speaker 7: just going to be this election cycle seeing a new 613 00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:04,760 Speaker 7: sort of generation of Democrats who basically, I think the 614 00:30:04,800 --> 00:30:07,320 Speaker 7: way they would put it is they want to play 615 00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:09,600 Speaker 7: the game the way the Republicans do, right, and which 616 00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:12,000 Speaker 7: means that they are not as interesting compromise. They are 617 00:30:12,000 --> 00:30:14,680 Speaker 7: not as interested in blanking. Whether or not you agree 618 00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:17,440 Speaker 7: with that assessment, that's how they think about it. And 619 00:30:17,800 --> 00:30:20,000 Speaker 7: that shift is going to be is going to be 620 00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:22,600 Speaker 7: pretty When you have two parties who are willing to 621 00:30:22,640 --> 00:30:24,240 Speaker 7: go to the edge, that is very different than having 622 00:30:24,280 --> 00:30:26,719 Speaker 7: one party that's willing to go to the edge. And 623 00:30:26,760 --> 00:30:29,520 Speaker 7: so that is going to happen. But Paul, as you know, 624 00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:31,040 Speaker 7: you asked me this question every time I bought it, 625 00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:33,680 Speaker 7: I tell you the same answer. It's still early, okay. 626 00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:36,560 Speaker 7: The way the leadership of the party is going to 627 00:30:36,600 --> 00:30:38,400 Speaker 7: evolve is the primary is and we're not going to 628 00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:41,120 Speaker 7: start the primaries till after the midterm elections. You're starting 629 00:30:41,120 --> 00:30:43,480 Speaker 7: to see people jockey. You're starting to see people have success. 630 00:30:43,520 --> 00:30:46,680 Speaker 7: I mean, Gavin Newsome, I would not have predicted that 631 00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:49,320 Speaker 7: parodying Donald Trump's voice on Twitter would be a successful 632 00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:50,760 Speaker 7: political tactic, but it turns out it. 633 00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:52,600 Speaker 2: Really works for him. 634 00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:54,800 Speaker 7: And you're seeing a bunch of other people who are similarly, 635 00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:58,080 Speaker 7: you know, making making waves, making noise that you're starting 636 00:30:58,080 --> 00:31:02,479 Speaker 7: to say, Okay, the demochocratic problem in the primaries as 637 00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:04,520 Speaker 7: opposed to now right where all anybody cares about is 638 00:31:04,560 --> 00:31:06,640 Speaker 7: the midterm. But when the primaries roll around. Is it's 639 00:31:06,640 --> 00:31:08,440 Speaker 7: not going to be a lack of people. It's going 640 00:31:08,520 --> 00:31:11,080 Speaker 7: to be too many that there are just so many 641 00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:14,120 Speaker 7: plausible candidates. So I'm not you know, I'm not saying 642 00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:15,720 Speaker 7: any of these people would be a great president. But 643 00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:19,760 Speaker 7: if Kevin Yousome or Josh Shapiro or Wes Moore or 644 00:31:19,800 --> 00:31:22,400 Speaker 7: core like, there's a lot of people in the Democratic 645 00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:24,600 Speaker 7: Party who you look at and go, that's a plausible 646 00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:27,480 Speaker 7: present and that you know, there's sort of an embarrassment 647 00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:29,400 Speaker 7: of riches problem that they might have to deal with there. 648 00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:32,120 Speaker 4: Well, something that's going to be happening before the midterms, 649 00:31:32,120 --> 00:31:35,120 Speaker 4: of course, is the deadline for another government shutdown, and 650 00:31:35,160 --> 00:31:37,880 Speaker 4: the crux of the first government shutdown is still the problem, 651 00:31:38,080 --> 00:31:41,520 Speaker 4: which is no agreement on healthcare. Do you think they're 652 00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:43,160 Speaker 4: going to take it to the mat and then we're 653 00:31:43,160 --> 00:31:46,200 Speaker 4: going to avoid or could we be entering yet another 654 00:31:46,400 --> 00:31:48,160 Speaker 4: historic shutdown at the end of January. 655 00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:50,560 Speaker 7: I mean, I think there's a chance that will that 656 00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:53,160 Speaker 7: will avoid another shutdown, just because one of the bigger, 657 00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:56,240 Speaker 7: big underlying driving factors for the last shutdown was the 658 00:31:56,360 --> 00:31:59,360 Speaker 7: Fsteam files, and you know, mad as that seems it's 659 00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:01,720 Speaker 7: quite clear that the House was held out of session 660 00:32:01,760 --> 00:32:03,720 Speaker 7: to stop that, to delay that vote on the files. 661 00:32:04,120 --> 00:32:07,280 Speaker 7: Since that vote has taken place, that factor is out, 662 00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:10,000 Speaker 7: and I think everybody's kind of looking at the last 663 00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:12,440 Speaker 7: one and being that that didn't work right Like the 664 00:32:12,440 --> 00:32:15,000 Speaker 7: Democrats who did it, it did not they you know that, 665 00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:17,000 Speaker 7: even if they got what they wanted out of it, 666 00:32:17,000 --> 00:32:20,080 Speaker 7: it doesn't feel that way because there's so much internal 667 00:32:20,080 --> 00:32:23,120 Speaker 7: pressure against it. The Republicans, this is just a nightmare. 668 00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:26,480 Speaker 7: But the other big driving dynamic in this, I don't 669 00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:27,960 Speaker 7: know how they're going to get out of it. Is 670 00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:31,800 Speaker 7: really simple. If premium skyrocket the way that it looks 671 00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:33,400 Speaker 7: they are doing and the looks like they're going to, 672 00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:36,480 Speaker 7: that is a political disaster for the Republican party, which 673 00:32:36,520 --> 00:32:40,080 Speaker 7: owns the issue. In that way, they're asking Democrats, but 674 00:32:40,200 --> 00:32:42,480 Speaker 7: to fix it, almost all the votes will be Democrats. 675 00:32:43,120 --> 00:32:47,200 Speaker 7: The policy incentives which are to fix the problem, and 676 00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:51,800 Speaker 7: the political incentives, which are for Democrats to say, hey, guys, congratulations, 677 00:32:52,040 --> 00:32:56,200 Speaker 7: like you own this, those run in completely opposite directions. 678 00:32:56,200 --> 00:32:58,520 Speaker 7: And the closer we get to the midterms, the more 679 00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:01,360 Speaker 7: the political incentives are going to want the policy wants. 680 00:33:01,840 --> 00:33:04,880 Speaker 2: Post midterms to what extent, is President Trump effectively a 681 00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:05,520 Speaker 2: lame duck. 682 00:33:06,040 --> 00:33:07,719 Speaker 7: I mean he was, he was a lame duck from 683 00:33:07,760 --> 00:33:11,640 Speaker 7: the moment he got regotsorn in, right, But what has 684 00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:15,840 Speaker 7: stopped that from happening is again this incredible personalist control 685 00:33:15,880 --> 00:33:19,240 Speaker 7: over the party. That is again like Franklin Roosevelt in 686 00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:23,760 Speaker 7: his wildest dreams did not have anything like this. And 687 00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:27,160 Speaker 7: so if the midterms are a blood bath for the Republicans, 688 00:33:27,240 --> 00:33:29,959 Speaker 7: and much of that just depends on the economy, right Like, 689 00:33:30,080 --> 00:33:33,560 Speaker 7: if AI keeps the economy to float through November, then 690 00:33:33,760 --> 00:33:35,600 Speaker 7: they bill be they're in a loose seats but if MA, 691 00:33:35,600 --> 00:33:39,240 Speaker 7: they may not lose sixty seats, they may lose twenty. 692 00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:41,760 Speaker 7: But if the midterms are a blood bath for the Republicans, 693 00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:43,720 Speaker 7: then I think you're going to see some pretty high 694 00:33:43,760 --> 00:33:47,240 Speaker 7: level of panics setting in because, especially if the economy 695 00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:50,040 Speaker 7: turns between now and twenty eight, which I'm not making 696 00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:52,120 Speaker 7: any predictions, just that we've had a long run without 697 00:33:52,120 --> 00:33:54,760 Speaker 7: that so that it wouldn't shock anybody, You're going to 698 00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:57,120 Speaker 7: see some Republicans who are pretty panicked and who are 699 00:33:57,160 --> 00:34:00,040 Speaker 7: not going to feel all that comfortable, say writing the 700 00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:02,120 Speaker 7: inner of jd Vance in the same way. 701 00:34:02,120 --> 00:34:04,240 Speaker 4: In thirty seconds or less. Do we get a deal 702 00:34:04,480 --> 00:34:05,360 Speaker 4: Ukraine and Russia. 703 00:34:05,560 --> 00:34:10,480 Speaker 7: No, No, we're not like I like the deal. The 704 00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:14,440 Speaker 7: deal would have to be the Russians essentially withdrawal from Ukraine, 705 00:34:14,480 --> 00:34:16,600 Speaker 7: because the Ukrainians are pretty clear they're going to keep 706 00:34:16,680 --> 00:34:19,120 Speaker 7: fighting and as long as they're going to keep fighting 707 00:34:19,120 --> 00:34:21,399 Speaker 7: and as long as Putin wants to conquer Ukraine, which 708 00:34:21,400 --> 00:34:24,160 Speaker 7: is essentially still where you're saying, there's not going to 709 00:34:24,160 --> 00:34:28,080 Speaker 7: be a deal. The sort of Trump administration's decision to 710 00:34:28,200 --> 00:34:30,880 Speaker 7: side with Russia in this war and put pressure on 711 00:34:30,960 --> 00:34:35,319 Speaker 7: Ukraine is you know, like just one as a matter 712 00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:38,600 Speaker 7: of national interest, in national honor, horrifying, right, But even 713 00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:41,880 Speaker 7: setting that aside, what it's demonstrated is that the Ukrainians 714 00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:43,920 Speaker 7: can keep fighting without us, and fight well, and they 715 00:34:43,960 --> 00:34:44,560 Speaker 7: know it all right. 716 00:34:44,600 --> 00:34:46,480 Speaker 2: Gotham, thank you so much for joining us. Skathamccon the 717 00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:49,360 Speaker 2: lecture of Management Practice at the l School of Management. 718 00:34:49,400 --> 00:34:51,880 Speaker 2: Also a Bloomberg Opinion contributor. 719 00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:56,960 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify 720 00:34:57,080 --> 00:35:01,360 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Liz Live each weekday, 721 00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:04,960 Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com the 722 00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:09,080 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You 723 00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:12,480 Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and 724 00:35:12,680 --> 00:35:14,400 Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal