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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch US Live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch US live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Look at how markets are digesting the latest salvo from

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Speaker 2: President Trump when it comes to the Chair of the Fed,

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Speaker 2: Jerome Powell, the pressure he is filing on him not

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Speaker 2: going anywhere. In fact, amplifying it once again today on

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Speaker 2: true Social Of course, it's not unusual to see the

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Speaker 2: President weighing in on FED policy or this chairman in particular.

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Speaker 2: You can see examples of that going back as far

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Speaker 2: as his first administration in twenty eighteen, but maybe a

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Speaker 2: bit remarkable today, Joe, to see him directly suggesting there

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Speaker 2: could be a slow down in the US economy if

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Speaker 2: the Chair doesn't do as he wants and cut rates,

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Speaker 2: perhaps preemptively.

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Speaker 3: In all caps.

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Speaker 4: There can be a slowing, he says, of the economy

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Speaker 4: unless mister Chu late a major loser lower's interest rates. Now,

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Speaker 4: as Charlie Pellett mentioned, it's marathon Monday, Patriots Day, in

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Speaker 4: Boston at the White House. It's Easter egg roll Day,

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Speaker 4: Easter Monday, we'll call it. And that is where we

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Speaker 4: start right now with Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall. She's on the

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Speaker 4: north lawn of the White House. Tyler, I know the

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Speaker 4: President was with the Easter Bunny a little while ago.

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Speaker 4: He did make some remarks as he talked about these

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Speaker 4: markets at all.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, Joe, at the moment, need yet to get any

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Speaker 5: indication on exactly if the White House is watching the

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Speaker 5: markets in reaction to his most recent criticism of drome

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Speaker 5: of Powell going as far as to say that the

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Speaker 5: US economy could slow if the Fed doesn't move to

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Speaker 5: cut rates and quickly. It does appear, as we see

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Speaker 5: growth forecast starting to be declined, in the decline across

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Speaker 5: the globe, that this White House could be potentially preparing

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Speaker 5: to shift some of the blame for the impacts of

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Speaker 5: his tariff policies onto the Federal Reserve. Now, Joe, of course,

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Speaker 5: the biggest question here is whether or not this White

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Speaker 5: House actually has the legal authority to remove Powell. And

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Speaker 5: if you ask the Fed Chair himself, you would say

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Speaker 5: that he doesn't think he can be fired. And that

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Speaker 5: he wouldn't step aside if he was asked to do so.

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Speaker 5: In theory, Powell is supposed to be shielded from being

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Speaker 5: fired without cause by the Federal Reserve Act of nineteen thirteen.

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Speaker 5: But there are some big questions, as you know here

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Speaker 5: in Washington about the future of the independent federal regulators.

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Speaker 5: We're watching very closely. One case that could be decided

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Speaker 5: by the Supreme Court within days that has to do

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Speaker 5: with another independent regulator when it comes to the National

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Speaker 5: Labor Relations Board, and this administration asking the courts to

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Speaker 5: overturn legal precedent known as Humphrey's Executor, which would shield

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Speaker 5: of independent agencies from political firings. We'll have to see

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Speaker 5: what ends up happening with that because it is considered

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Speaker 5: to be a test case as President Trump doesn't appear

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Speaker 5: to be letting up the pressure as he ties this

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Speaker 5: very closely to his tariff policies and as the tariff

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Speaker 5: negotiations get underway. You mentioned this at the top of

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Speaker 5: the hour, but Bloomberg News reporting there's going to be

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Speaker 5: a key meeting here at the White House later on

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Speaker 5: with some big retailers that includes home Deepol Walmart Lowe's

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Speaker 5: and target as the private sector also tries to get

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Speaker 5: into these talks as the White House cuts or attempts

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Speaker 5: to cut some deals when it comes to his tariff policies.

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Speaker 2: All right, Bloomberg, Tyler Kendall live at the White House,

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Speaker 2: thank you so much. In the stock of some of

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Speaker 2: those retailers that Tyler was mentioning under pressure today as

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Speaker 2: we're seeing a wider sell off in the equity markets.

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Speaker 2: We're now down more than three full percentage points on

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Speaker 2: both the S and P five hundred and the Nasdaq

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Speaker 2: one hundred. And on that note, we turn to Gena

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Speaker 2: Martin Adams, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Equity Strategists, joining us from

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Speaker 2: New York, Gina. When you look at the renewed selling

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Speaker 2: pressure once again today, is it so much that markets

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Speaker 2: are actively reacting to the news or the suggestions about

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Speaker 2: the future of the Fed chair jerown power, they just

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Speaker 2: don't see another compelling reason to be buying instead of selling.

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Speaker 6: Yeah. I think that those are two very valid reasons

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Speaker 6: that are coming up all day to day. That the third,

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Speaker 6: i'd say, is earning season. So far, sixty five percent

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Speaker 6: of S and P five hundred companies that have reported

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Speaker 6: have reported much lower sales than expected by the analyst community,

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Speaker 6: and that was in the first quarter before we had

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Speaker 6: Liberation Day, really rock S and P five hundred company world,

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Speaker 6: So I do think that kind of earnings are playing

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Speaker 6: a role as well. The dollar is also playing a role.

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Speaker 6: The fact that the dollar is falling when the S

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Speaker 6: and P five hundred is falling is a very rare thing,

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Speaker 6: particularly when the SMP is this week. To have the

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Speaker 6: dollar also weakening is creating a lot of concern in

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Speaker 6: the form of financial markets concern that broadly investors are

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Speaker 6: losing a little bit of faith in the system itself.

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Speaker 6: So there's quite a few things, frankly that investors are

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Speaker 6: having to contend with. I think the other thing that

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Speaker 6: I would notice we're coming off of excessive overconfidence that

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Speaker 6: when we came into this year, markets were pricing for

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Speaker 6: greater than twenty percent earnings growth emerging. Now we're looking

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Speaker 6: at closer to zero as the potential run rate, if

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Speaker 6: not a contraction in earnings depending upon how this ninety

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Speaker 6: day reprieve plays out. So the markets have just been

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Speaker 6: really sideswiped and certainly taken by surprise so far this year.

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Speaker 4: So where's the safe haven right now, Gene, I mean,

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Speaker 4: is it Gold's bit coin?

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Speaker 3: Is that it?

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Speaker 6: Yeah? I think that international equities also have already priced

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Speaker 6: significant amount of weakness. They didn't come into this world

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Speaker 6: to this year as overconfident as US equities did. International

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Speaker 6: equities priced at extreme discounts relative to US equities and

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Speaker 6: currencies they are generally rallying, would suggest a very alternative.

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Speaker 6: We did a note this morning talking about EM equities

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Speaker 6: as a potential safe haven, even where even the risk,

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Speaker 6: the downside risk in China is somewhat limited by even

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Speaker 6: a US recession in comparison to the downside risk to

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Speaker 6: the US market. Part of that is where stocks were

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Speaker 6: priced in each market coming into this year. Very similarly,

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Speaker 6: you see EM countries across the world less correlated to

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Speaker 6: the US markets than they had been in the past.

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Speaker 6: So low beta markets tend to offer some degree of

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Speaker 6: safe haven, certainly consumer staples and utility stocks, and as

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Speaker 6: the sectors that behave more defensively, low beta sectors tend

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Speaker 6: to perform a little bit better in selloffs like this.

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Speaker 6: There are relation to safe havens, but unfortunately most equities

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Speaker 6: are going to struggle in a climate like this one.

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Speaker 4: Gene's great to have you, Geena Martin Adams, Bloomberg Intelligence

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Speaker 4: Chief Equity Strategists.

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Speaker 3: As we follow stocks lower.

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Speaker 4: We'll have an update from Charlie Pellett in just a

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Speaker 4: little bit more than ten minutes from right now, but

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Speaker 4: we are reaching to Low's for the day here three

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Speaker 4: percent plus losses for the S and P five hundred

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Speaker 4: and the NASDAK Right now, I'm Joe Matthew and Washington

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Speaker 4: alongside Kaylee Lines.

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Speaker 3: This is ballots of power.

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Speaker 4: The news coming out of Washington has so much to

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Speaker 4: do with what's happening right now on Wall Street, and

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Speaker 4: it's where we start our conversation with Congresswoman Nicole Malia Takis,

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Speaker 4: the Republican from New York's eleventh District, with us live

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Speaker 4: from World Headquarters in New York, and Congresswomen, we want

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Speaker 4: to welcome you back, as always to Bloomberg TV and Radio.

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Speaker 4: Do you worry about the intersection in this case of

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Speaker 4: Washington and Wall Street. The words of the President, or

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Speaker 4: at least as he posted on truth Social, appear to

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Speaker 4: be pulling us lower here referring to the Fed chair

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Speaker 4: as a major loser, even though he did appoint him

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Speaker 4: initially this is the pact of the rhetoric in American

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Speaker 4: politics now.

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Speaker 7: No, Look, I think that we need to be focused

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Speaker 7: on governing with a confident, steady hand. Here. I think

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Speaker 7: the most important thing that we can be doing is

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Speaker 7: making sure that we pass this very important tax package,

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Speaker 7: that we prevent an expiration of the existing twenty seventeen

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Speaker 7: Tax Cutting Jobs Act, That in itself, I think is

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Speaker 7: something that can send a very strong message that we

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Speaker 7: get back to Washington next week and we see pieces

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Speaker 7: of this bills being furnished by the individual committees. I

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Speaker 7: think there's a question right now around the world whether

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Speaker 7: we can get the job done. I believe that we

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Speaker 7: can and we must or else it's a four trillion

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Speaker 7: dollar tax hike, and you'll see a lot of the

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Speaker 7: provisions that were so important to the American economy expire. Right,

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Speaker 7: we have so many things at stake here. You have

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Speaker 7: interest deductibility, R and D expensing, you have bonus appreciation,

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Speaker 7: you have the corporate tax rate that would go from

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Speaker 7: twenty one percent to thirty five percent if this were

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Speaker 7: to expire. And of course, the the provisions that lifted

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Speaker 7: millions of Americans out of poverty, that created seven million jobs.

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Speaker 7: There's a lot here, and we need to make sure

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Speaker 7: that we not only pass it, but that we expand

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Speaker 7: it in a way that we add more pro growth

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Speaker 7: policies so we can see the economy really prosper. And

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Speaker 7: reputation of manufacturing is another big component of this as

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Speaker 7: well that I've been working on well.

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Speaker 2: And we know, Congressoman that any expansion of tax cuts

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Speaker 2: will require offsets based off of the kind of framework

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Speaker 2: that the House is working with here, so it becomes

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Speaker 2: a question of the spending cuts. I'm sure you're well

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Speaker 2: aware that the House Energy and Commerce Committee is going

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Speaker 2: to begin marking up it's portion of this massive reconciliation bill,

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Speaker 2: and that will be the medicaid question. Have you seen

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Speaker 2: a list of proposals or any kind of draft around

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Speaker 2: what exactly will be put forward when it comes to medicaid?

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Speaker 2: Knowing you have looked for assurances on that front, do

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Speaker 2: you expect you'll see one before the markup?

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Speaker 7: Well, what we have seen is the menu of options, right,

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Speaker 7: and we're talking about the entire energy and healthcare portfolio,

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Speaker 7: so it's not just medicaid, and obviously and deals with regulations,

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Speaker 7: it deals with broadband spectrum sales. It deals with other components,

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Speaker 7: emission vehicles, things like that that could be offsets with

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Speaker 7: the Medicaid peace. We've made it very clear to the Speaker,

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Speaker 7: to the Chairman of this committee, as well as to

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Speaker 7: the President of the United States that there is a

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Speaker 7: group of US that will not support any package that

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Speaker 7: would diminish, meaning taking individuals who are legally eligible for

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Speaker 7: Medicaid off the roles. If they are eligible, they need

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Speaker 7: to be able to keep their eligibility. Now aside from that, specifically,

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Speaker 7: we're talking about our senior citizens, our people with disabilities,

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Speaker 7: children with developmental disabilities, pregnant women. These are people that

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Speaker 7: we are really laser focused on. Yes, we can implement

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Speaker 7: work requirements on people that are able bodied they should

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Speaker 7: be contributing in this economy and working. That would remove

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Speaker 7: them off of Medica and put them on most likely

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Speaker 7: private insurance, saving the government money as well, and of

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Speaker 7: course the fraud getting rid of it, which accounts for

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Speaker 7: roughly fifty billion dollars a year in Medicaid alone. That's

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Speaker 7: five hundred billion dollars over ten years. So when you're

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Speaker 7: looking for a savings of roughly eight hundred and eighty

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Speaker 7: billion dollars over ten years. That's a big chunk of

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Speaker 7: it right there that we're going to save. And so

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Speaker 7: we've just made very clear that in terms of reimbursement

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Speaker 7: rates for our states New York for example, fifty percent

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Speaker 7: federal reimbursement, we will not allow that to be lowered.

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Speaker 7: So that was one thing that we pushed back on,

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Speaker 7: as well as per capita caps on traditional medicaid. That's

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Speaker 7: something that we've also said is a red line for us,

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Speaker 7: and we've received positive feedback from the Speaker and a

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Speaker 7: commitment that they're not going to touch those things.

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Speaker 3: That's really interesting.

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Speaker 4: We saw your letter to House leadership on this last

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Speaker 4: week Congress. So when there's been a lot of talk

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Speaker 4: about a millionaire's tax, and I wonder if that's something

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Speaker 4: you might warm up to if it means not rating Medicaid, Well, it's.

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Speaker 7: Certainly on the table. It's being considered. We have to

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Speaker 7: make sure that we have a tax structure that is fair. Obviously,

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Speaker 7: the President has a lot of priorities which we share.

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Speaker 7: We want to see working class, middle class communities get

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Speaker 7: some relief. We want to see the salt cap increase,

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Speaker 7: the deduction increase for people that I represent here in

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Speaker 7: New York who are struggling with high property taxes and

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Speaker 7: income taxes as well. We want to make sure that

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Speaker 7: we're protecting our seniors who are on Social Security and

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Speaker 7: that they're not having to pay taxes on their small

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Speaker 7: Social Security checks and so who want to do these things.

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Speaker 7: Then we need to find the money to offset it,

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Speaker 7: and so we're looking at every option on the table.

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Speaker 7: I think that we're having serious discussions about where this

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Speaker 7: money is going to come from, and that's one of

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Speaker 7: the options that is currently out there. But we also

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Speaker 7: want to make sure that we're preserving the other various

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Speaker 7: aspects of the TCJA that were so critical for our

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Speaker 7: economy that created jobs, allowed companies to expand and invest

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Speaker 7: and repatriate. Manufacturer is another big piece of this that

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Speaker 7: we're very much focused on. How do we give a

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Speaker 7: lower rate for new facilities that are built here or

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Speaker 7: expanded here to create and manufacture so we can repatriate

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Speaker 7: some of this stuff that's happening overseas, in particular pharmaceuticals

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Speaker 7: that we're relying on communist China for such a huge

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Speaker 7: portion of our medication here in the United States. That

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Speaker 7: has to end if we've learned anything from COVID must

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Speaker 7: be a priority in this package.

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Speaker 2: Congress, someone, as you talk about the various options here,

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Speaker 2: is one of the options being considered taxing carried interests

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Speaker 2: is ordinary income? Is that something you would support if

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Speaker 2: it's on the table.

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Speaker 7: Well, that is one of the proposals that the White

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Speaker 7: House has put forward. They do want to address the

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Speaker 7: carried interest. This is something that we've heard a lot

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Speaker 7: from people in opposition. Obviously, the real estate industry, venture

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Speaker 7: capitalists very concerned about the carried interest proposal. It's on

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Speaker 7: the table, but we are still a valueating this and

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Speaker 7: other options. The other thing that has been on the table,

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Speaker 7: which we've met with many real estate industry individuals here

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Speaker 7: in New York today, actually was about the sea salt

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Speaker 7: corporate salt for property taxes for income taxes here in

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Speaker 7: the state. This one, in particular is very concerning because

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Speaker 7: the real estate industry cannot bear to have the sea

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Speaker 7: salt removed basically or imposed on the property portion. So

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Speaker 7: if they start seeing that they can't deduct this business

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Speaker 7: expense from their federal taxes, it will put really a

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Speaker 7: big burden on these real estate companies. These buildings, and

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Speaker 7: we'll see maybe foreclosures, we'll see property values decline, which

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Speaker 7: will then reduce the roles that our local government receives

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Speaker 7: on property taxes. So I think that's a big one

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Speaker 7: that I've been pushing back on. Just as a member

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Speaker 7: from New York City. It could be very detrimental to

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Speaker 7: our city, but it affects municipalities all across the country,

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Speaker 7: particularly those states that don't have an income tax. States

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Speaker 7: like Texas in Florida rely a lot on real estate taxes.

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Speaker 4: Congresswoman, we only have a minute left. I'm curious, did

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Speaker 4: you pay a congestion tax to get to our studio

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Speaker 4: earlier today? I thought it was coming down on April

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Speaker 4: twentieth per order the Transportation Department.

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Speaker 7: Well, unfortunately, our governor in the MTA want to continue

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Speaker 7: to violate federal law, and so I was forced to

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Speaker 7: pay that fee. But I hope not for long. And

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Speaker 7: I was very happy to hear President Trump and Secretary

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Speaker 7: Duffy today say that they're giving them just one more month.

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Speaker 8: Russ.

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Speaker 7: They're going to look at other measures to try to

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Speaker 7: penalize the state and the MTA for not complying with

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Speaker 7: federal law. The President was right to rescind that approval

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Speaker 7: from Joe Biden that was basically a rubber stamp without

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Speaker 7: the environmental impact statement required underneath that. That is why

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Speaker 7: I am among those who have sued the MTA and

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Speaker 7: the state. We hope that they comply because it's an

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Speaker 7: unfair cash grab on the people I represent.

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Speaker 2: All Right, we'll leave it there. Congress Women, thank you,

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Speaker 2: as always for your time. That is Republican Congresswoman Nicole

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Speaker 2: Mallia Takis of New York joining us from our global

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Speaker 2: headquarters in New York. Meantime, we'll continue the conversation here

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Speaker 2: in Washington. Our political panel, Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzeno

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Speaker 2: are just ahead here on a sell off day on

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Speaker 2: Wall Street. On Bloomberg TV and Radio.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 3: Of course.

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Speaker 4: Well, it's another day to be watching the markets here

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Speaker 4: with Charlie's help. Will keep doing that through the program

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Speaker 4: after Donald Trump took the truth social to call j

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Speaker 4: Powell a loser. But it's an interesting day here as

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Speaker 4: we consider the full Ginsburg I by the way, did

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Speaker 4: check they have already updated the full Ginsburg wiki page

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Speaker 4: to put Senator Chris van Holland there is the latest

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Speaker 4: to pull off this remarkable feat all the Sunday shows live.

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Speaker 4: Does anyone actually know who Ginsburg's William Ginsburg was Monica

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Speaker 4: Lewinsky's lawyer.

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Speaker 3: Anyway, for the old people.

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Speaker 4: The reason why he was out there is because he

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Speaker 4: actually got some time in El Salvador with mister Obrago Garcia.

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Speaker 4: You saw the images I'm sure over the weekend were

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Speaker 4: those Margarita's. Yeah, they were pretty close to the swimming

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Speaker 4: pool at Chris van Holland's hotel. But he said it

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Speaker 4: was a mission accomplished moment for him to simply get

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Speaker 4: time with mister Abrego Garcia. Over the weekend, the Supreme

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Speaker 4: Court issued a ruling by the way halting all Alien

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Speaker 4: Enemies Act based deportations. And it's interesting when you read

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Speaker 4: the writing the court indicating a deep skepticism. This is

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Speaker 4: a quote, a deep skepticism about whether the administration could

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Speaker 4: be trusted to live up to the key part of

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Speaker 4: an earlier ruling after the government had deported a different

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Speaker 4: group of migrants to a prison in El Salvador.

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Speaker 3: So we'll see where this goes here.

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Speaker 4: The administration is not budging and you don't need to

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Speaker 4: look any further than Sunday Morning TV to watch that.

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Speaker 4: The aforementioned Chris van Holland the Gentleman from Maryland on

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Speaker 4: ABC this Week.

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Speaker 3: Listen.

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Speaker 8: What Donald Trump is trying to do here is change

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Speaker 8: the subject. The subject at hand is that he and

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Speaker 8: his administration are define a court order to people to

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Speaker 8: give a Brago Garcia his due process rights. They are

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Speaker 8: trying to litigate on social media what they should be

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Speaker 8: doing in the courts. They need to put up or

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Speaker 8: shut up in the courts.

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Speaker 4: Let me two most important words. You just heard due

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Speaker 4: process right. He referred to due process rights. That's the

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Speaker 4: way Democrats are getting to this. The administration says, hey,

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Speaker 4: we're trying to get bad guys out of the country here.

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Speaker 4: Are you serious you want to bring this guy back

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Speaker 4: for due process. Tom Holman was asked about this. The

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Speaker 4: President's Borders Are was also out on Sunday morning television.

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Speaker 4: Here's Tom Holman on CNN.

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Speaker 9: I stand by the fact.

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Speaker 3: I think we did the right thing here.

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Speaker 9: We removed the public safety threat, a national security threat,

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Speaker 9: a violent gang member for the United States ICE Intelligence

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Speaker 9: says MS thirteen game member. How Content Performance says he's

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Speaker 9: MS thirteen gang member. The country of Al Salvador says

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Speaker 9: he's an MS thirteen gang member. I think he's exactly

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Speaker 9: where he should be.

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Speaker 4: Okay, get ready for the parade of lawmakers Democrats, specifically

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Speaker 4: in San Salvador, now that Van hall And has done so.

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Speaker 4: By the way, they're not all going to get full

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Speaker 4: Ginsburg's four House Democrats are on their way. Robert Garcia California,

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Speaker 4: Maxwell Frost, Florida, Maxine Dexter, Oregon. He hasn't been on

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Speaker 4: Sorry Arizona meeting with officials at the embassy in l Salvador,

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Speaker 4: receiving classified briefings. We read there was a request to

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Speaker 4: make these official delegations, and apparently that request was denied.

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Speaker 3: Let's assemble our panel. They're back with us on a Monday.

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Speaker 4: Jeanie Shanzano and Rick Davis Bloomberg Politics contributors. He is

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Speaker 4: our Republican strategist and partner at Stone Court Capital. Genie

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Speaker 4: is our Democratic analyst and political science professor at Iona University. Genie,

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Speaker 4: I don't know your thoughts on Chris van Holland. The

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Speaker 4: administration says he was played, and he was even asked

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Speaker 4: about that in some of these interviews. He says, no,

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Speaker 4: I wasn't played. Yeah, they tried to get a nice

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Speaker 4: beauty shot of us out there by the pool. But

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Speaker 4: the fact is I went down there and meet with

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Speaker 4: him and I succeeded. Was it time well spent?

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Speaker 3: Was it worth it?

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Speaker 9: You know?

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Speaker 10: I think it was. I do think that Gavin Newsom

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Speaker 10: is onto something, as is Richie Taurus, that the Democrats

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Speaker 10: have to be a little cautious here and they can't

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Speaker 10: get sidetracked. The reality is just what you talked about, Joe,

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Speaker 10: Is this not about Abrego Garcia. This is about due process

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Speaker 10: and following the rules and the orders of the Supreme

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Speaker 10: Court and the federal courts in the country and the law,

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Speaker 10: plain and simple. Beyond that, the real story of the

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Speaker 10: day and the year for Democrats has got to be

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Speaker 10: the chaos in our financial system and the impact it

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Speaker 10: is having on their constituents at home where they live. So,

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Speaker 10: you know, but that doesn't mean you can't do both.

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Speaker 10: So you know, I don't know if everybody needs to

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Speaker 10: go down there. You know, there's a little bit of

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Speaker 10: a cattle mentality. It is fine to go down there,

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Speaker 10: But the reality is follow the law, mister President and administration,

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Speaker 10: and please please fix the financial chaos in the markets

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Speaker 10: and don't contribute to it even though you set it off.

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Speaker 6: We'll get back.

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Speaker 3: Does Chris van Holland look smart this morning or not?

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Speaker 4: Rick Davis, And I ask you that having heard from

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Speaker 4: you last week, you described occasions when John McCain would

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Speaker 4: go visit a place where leadership may not want him

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Speaker 4: to be. Was this good politics or was he played

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Speaker 4: by the administration.

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 11: He did what John McCain exemplified, you know, throughout his career,

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Speaker 11: which is one man can make a difference. John McCain

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Speaker 11: showed up in a bunch of really threatening places demanded

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Speaker 11: to see political prisoners. You know, put Away talked about democracy.

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Speaker 11: I mean, he had a different reason for doing what

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Speaker 11: he was doing. But Chris van Holland showed that one

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Speaker 11: person getting on a plane and showing up can create

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Speaker 11: a controversy. And I think that's all he was trying

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Speaker 11: to do is keep that issue alive. Make the point

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Speaker 11: to the American public and to the media that regardless

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Speaker 11: of whether or not you know anything about mister Garths

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Speaker 11: he is, he has not gone through a process, a

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Speaker 11: due process, and and and that.

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Speaker 12: Is the issue.

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Speaker 11: And it was echoed by the courts, as you pointed

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Speaker 11: out earlier, even the Supreme Court halting Venezuelans from being deported.

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Speaker 13: Uh.

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Speaker 11: There needs to be a real conversation around the implementation

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Speaker 11: of these emergency powers that Donald Trump has done, UH,

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Speaker 11: as to whether or not they're appropriate in the world we.

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Speaker 3: Live in today.

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Speaker 11: And to be able to say I can deport anybody

440
00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:33,600
Speaker 11: I want to, regardless of whether they've been convicted of

441
00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:36,879
Speaker 11: a crime or given due process, is just not you know,

442
00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:41,160
Speaker 11: what we think of as being lawful in a community

443
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:43,879
Speaker 11: of people, and that's that's what Chris ad Holland plugged

444
00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:45,400
Speaker 11: into today this weekend.

445
00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:49,040
Speaker 4: Gene, you mentioned the two causes here, this being one

446
00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:53,639
Speaker 4: of the economy essentially being the other the economic policies

447
00:22:54,280 --> 00:22:57,200
Speaker 4: or black thereof, according to depending on who you speak

448
00:22:57,240 --> 00:22:59,200
Speaker 4: with coming out of this White House. The reason why

449
00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:03,679
Speaker 4: the market is down sharply again today enter Haakim Jeffrey's

450
00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:06,719
Speaker 4: Cost of Living Week of Action. He also is on

451
00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:10,359
Speaker 4: Sunday Morning TV talking about this genie, a cost of

452
00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:12,520
Speaker 4: living week of action. We have to continue to talk

453
00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:14,320
Speaker 4: to the American people about our plans.

454
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:15,600
Speaker 3: Who's listening.

455
00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:20,800
Speaker 10: Well, Americans are And he's absolutely right. I am not.

456
00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:22,840
Speaker 10: I have to admit, Joe, I am not a huge

457
00:23:22,840 --> 00:23:26,159
Speaker 10: fan of these week designations because it always brings me

458
00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:29,159
Speaker 10: back to our infrastructure weeks and you know, his has

459
00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:32,920
Speaker 10: a bad feel, but he's absolutely right. That is what

460
00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:36,240
Speaker 10: the Democrats and Republicans, by the way, this is not

461
00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:41,000
Speaker 10: party oriented, need to focus on, which is what Americans

462
00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:45,400
Speaker 10: are experiencing right now. And the real message from Democrats

463
00:23:45,440 --> 00:23:48,879
Speaker 10: has got to be all of the chaos and all

464
00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:51,920
Speaker 10: of the craziness and all of the messiness that by

465
00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:55,080
Speaker 10: the way got Abrego Garcia down there and has gotten

466
00:23:55,160 --> 00:23:59,320
Speaker 10: us into this mess economy is because we have a

467
00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:03,600
Speaker 10: president who is completely undisciplined. So while Americans may have

468
00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:06,879
Speaker 10: voted for him and appreciate what he said he was

469
00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:10,320
Speaker 10: going to do, what he has done in just ninety

470
00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:15,439
Speaker 10: days is create chaos in almost every major department of

471
00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:19,360
Speaker 10: our government and every single issue people care about, whether

472
00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:22,600
Speaker 10: it's foreign policy, whether it is the economy, whether it

473
00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:25,680
Speaker 10: is social security, Medicare and Medicaid. That's what they need

474
00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:29,400
Speaker 10: to focus on. So Hakeem Jeffrey's instinct here is right.

475
00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:33,800
Speaker 10: Democrats need to show the American public that they hear

476
00:24:33,880 --> 00:24:37,240
Speaker 10: them when they say this kind of what some people

477
00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:41,280
Speaker 10: are calling a clown show cannot continue as it pertains

478
00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:45,520
Speaker 10: to the financial way in which the President seems to

479
00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:48,119
Speaker 10: be running the government, and the latest we hear, of course,

480
00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:51,680
Speaker 10: are absolutely insane things like one person is out of

481
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:54,240
Speaker 10: the office, another person comes and talks to him and

482
00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:57,119
Speaker 10: he signs a ninety day reprieve on tariffs. That is

483
00:24:57,280 --> 00:24:59,920
Speaker 10: no way to implement serious policy.

484
00:25:02,000 --> 00:25:04,960
Speaker 4: President was talking earlier at the White House Easter egg

485
00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:09,680
Speaker 4: roll Rick Davis about military enlistment going through the roof.

486
00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:13,240
Speaker 4: He was, I guess, making some reference to the Pentagon

487
00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:16,040
Speaker 4: on a day when Pete Hegseth is under attack, and

488
00:25:16,080 --> 00:25:20,119
Speaker 4: he talked about the economy doing so well under his watch.

489
00:25:20,160 --> 00:25:22,959
Speaker 4: You've got the Dow Industrial Average down a thousand points,

490
00:25:23,000 --> 00:25:25,760
Speaker 4: which is something that people actually talk about.

491
00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:26,720
Speaker 3: When they go to work. Here.

492
00:25:26,760 --> 00:25:28,600
Speaker 4: This is going to be the conversation right now at

493
00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:31,080
Speaker 4: lunches all around the country, whether people can afford to

494
00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:32,800
Speaker 4: go out, or they're eating.

495
00:25:32,600 --> 00:25:34,159
Speaker 3: At their desks or whatever it is.

496
00:25:34,440 --> 00:25:37,760
Speaker 4: This is the backdrop to everything else that we're talking

497
00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:40,040
Speaker 4: about here. I'm looking at you here on YouTube with

498
00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:42,480
Speaker 4: a big red headline across the bottom of the page.

499
00:25:42,520 --> 00:25:45,879
Speaker 4: Here s and P five hundred slumps as Trump reiterates

500
00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:50,119
Speaker 4: call for lower interest rates. The corrosive effect here of

501
00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:53,480
Speaker 4: what's happening in the stock market is hard to overstate,

502
00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:57,320
Speaker 4: and it makes us question everything else that we're looking at.

503
00:25:57,920 --> 00:25:59,920
Speaker 4: What does Donald Trump think about this as he's sitting

504
00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:00,880
Speaker 4: the over right now?

505
00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:05,760
Speaker 11: You know, look, I mean, he's got a financial plan that,

506
00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:09,200
Speaker 11: even by his own description, was going to cause some pain.

507
00:26:10,359 --> 00:26:14,520
Speaker 11: I think that he probably hadn't anticipated as much pain

508
00:26:14,600 --> 00:26:18,119
Speaker 11: being inflicted on people who own stocks and bonds in

509
00:26:18,600 --> 00:26:22,600
Speaker 11: this country. Is that is that what's happened. The reality

510
00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:25,760
Speaker 11: is he really owes it to the American public to

511
00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:29,000
Speaker 11: use that bully pulpit to go on TV and explain

512
00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:32,560
Speaker 11: how all these things that he's doing in the financial

513
00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:37,479
Speaker 11: sector is going to somehow benefit them in the short, medium,

514
00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:40,800
Speaker 11: and long run. We've seen the collapse of consumer confidence

515
00:26:40,840 --> 00:26:44,640
Speaker 11: since he was elected president, collapse of the stock market.

516
00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:45,480
Speaker 3: Collapse of the bond market.

517
00:26:45,520 --> 00:26:48,280
Speaker 11: I mean, you know how many how many presidents have

518
00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:52,359
Speaker 11: ever been able to withstand this, you know, incredibly fast

519
00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:56,400
Speaker 11: change towards the negative on people's you know, four one

520
00:26:56,480 --> 00:27:00,399
Speaker 11: ks and other things without addressing that to the American public.

521
00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:03,560
Speaker 11: And there is a growing course that this is all

522
00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:08,000
Speaker 11: self inflicted. That we had a roaring economy coming into

523
00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:11,360
Speaker 11: Donald Trump. Everyone thought that would just be put on steroids,

524
00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:15,240
Speaker 11: and in fact we've had exactly the opposite. So I

525
00:27:15,280 --> 00:27:17,199
Speaker 11: think the guy's got to go have a conversation with

526
00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:20,640
Speaker 11: the American public. No more rallies sit behind that desk

527
00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:23,480
Speaker 11: and have a conversation as to how these terif regimes

528
00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:26,560
Speaker 11: and how his threats to remove ja power are somehow

529
00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:27,680
Speaker 11: good for our economy.

530
00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:32,280
Speaker 4: Boy, imagine in Oval Office, a primetime Oval Office address

531
00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:35,520
Speaker 4: from the President on script. It actually would be quite

532
00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:37,600
Speaker 4: a moment for him as he calls the Fed chair

533
00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:41,760
Speaker 4: a major loser. If you're wondering why the markets are

534
00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:44,439
Speaker 4: tumbling today and what we're talking about this post on

535
00:27:44,520 --> 00:27:47,480
Speaker 4: truth Social by Donald Trump, there can be a slowing,

536
00:27:47,520 --> 00:27:51,400
Speaker 4: he says of the economy, essentially predicting an economic slow

537
00:27:51,480 --> 00:27:55,959
Speaker 4: down unless mister too late, a major loser lower's interest rates.

538
00:27:56,160 --> 00:28:00,919
Speaker 4: Now the President of the United States on the Easter Monday,

539
00:28:00,960 --> 00:28:02,159
Speaker 4: twenty twenty five.

540
00:28:05,359 --> 00:28:08,840
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

541
00:28:08,880 --> 00:28:11,879
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on

542
00:28:12,040 --> 00:28:15,320
Speaker 1: Apple Coarcklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

543
00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:18,680
Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

544
00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:22,720
Speaker 1: us live on YouTube day ninety.

545
00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:24,880
Speaker 4: By the way, if you're playing along on your home

546
00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:30,320
Speaker 4: game of the second Trump administration, with another thousand point

547
00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:33,359
Speaker 4: drop in the dow after the President takes to truth

548
00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:37,000
Speaker 4: Social to call j Powell a loser. Now, if you're

549
00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:41,640
Speaker 4: trying to clean things up, say at the Pentagon following

550
00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:45,640
Speaker 4: a very difficult weekend a series of hit pieces, do

551
00:28:45,720 --> 00:28:48,080
Speaker 4: you go to the White House easter egg roll to

552
00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:51,280
Speaker 4: do it? Do you enlist the Easter bunny, because that

553
00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:52,800
Speaker 4: is essentially what happened today.

554
00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:53,600
Speaker 3: A short time ago.

555
00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:57,479
Speaker 4: Pete Hegseth rebounding from a couple of very difficult pieces

556
00:28:57,480 --> 00:28:59,240
Speaker 4: of reporting, one of the New York Times, the other

557
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:02,680
Speaker 4: in Politico suggesting there's another signal chat that it's a

558
00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:07,920
Speaker 4: Pentagon in disarray. He's been pretty busy on the phone,

559
00:29:07,920 --> 00:29:11,920
Speaker 4: it turns out, unless you ask the Defense secretary who

560
00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:15,720
Speaker 4: denied that reporting a short time ago on the White

561
00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:18,240
Speaker 4: House lawn as the kids were rolling the easter eggs.

562
00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:19,360
Speaker 3: Watch it listen.

563
00:29:20,440 --> 00:29:21,840
Speaker 12: This is what the media does.

564
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:27,000
Speaker 14: They take anonymous sources from disgruntled former employees, and then

565
00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:28,040
Speaker 14: they try to slash.

566
00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:30,200
Speaker 3: And burn people and ruin their reputations.

567
00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:34,240
Speaker 14: Not gonna work with me because we're changing the Defense Department,

568
00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:37,440
Speaker 14: putting the Pentagon back in the hands of warfighters, and

569
00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:41,000
Speaker 14: anonymous smears from distruntle to former employees on old news

570
00:29:41,640 --> 00:29:42,240
Speaker 14: doesn't matter.

571
00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:46,000
Speaker 4: I mean, I suspect he wouldn't have had the horn

572
00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:47,840
Speaker 4: plan if he was at the Pentagon, right, you get

573
00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:51,440
Speaker 4: full soundtrack over there. Everybody seemed to be in a

574
00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:53,640
Speaker 4: great mood at the Easter egg role. Even Don Junior

575
00:29:53,800 --> 00:29:57,800
Speaker 4: was there blowing the Golden whistle. First Lady was there

576
00:29:57,800 --> 00:30:01,440
Speaker 4: holding hands with Donald Trump. Not exactly the forum you

577
00:30:01,480 --> 00:30:04,880
Speaker 4: would expect to find the Defense secretary in today. Here's

578
00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:08,080
Speaker 4: a quote for you. There are very likely more shoes

579
00:30:08,120 --> 00:30:11,760
Speaker 4: to drop in short order, with even bigger bombshell stories

580
00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:14,560
Speaker 4: coming this week. That's what a guy named John Elliott

581
00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:17,640
Speaker 4: left the Defense Department last week. Former Defense Department official.

582
00:30:18,760 --> 00:30:21,320
Speaker 4: He was responsible for one of the two hit pieces,

583
00:30:21,360 --> 00:30:25,640
Speaker 4: taking an opbed at Politico there to refer to a

584
00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:29,520
Speaker 4: Pentagon in disarray. Tony Capassio makes his living over there

585
00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:30,600
Speaker 4: the Pentagon and sees.

586
00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:31,680
Speaker 3: All this stuff up close.

587
00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:35,480
Speaker 4: Was prolific with us about the first signal chat, and

588
00:30:35,520 --> 00:30:38,800
Speaker 4: he's back now with another here on the other side

589
00:30:38,840 --> 00:30:41,840
Speaker 4: of the river. Bloomberg Pentagon reporter Tony Capassio, you know

590
00:30:41,840 --> 00:30:44,760
Speaker 4: you've got a big following online. People always look forward

591
00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:46,880
Speaker 4: to you coming over here. Maybe it's because I'm usually

592
00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:49,719
Speaker 4: calling you about a very large and controversial story.

593
00:30:49,760 --> 00:30:51,960
Speaker 12: It's flattering, but it doesn't go well ahead.

594
00:30:51,760 --> 00:30:55,040
Speaker 4: And I don't know about that, but you wonder you

595
00:30:55,080 --> 00:30:57,280
Speaker 4: start hearing the questions, how long is he gonna last?

596
00:30:57,600 --> 00:30:59,560
Speaker 4: This is like a rerun here, and the White House

597
00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:02,000
Speaker 4: is digging. They say, he says basically that it's untrue,

598
00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:03,600
Speaker 4: it's fake news. The White House says they're going to

599
00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:08,040
Speaker 4: stand by their man. We just had four very important

600
00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:10,040
Speaker 4: departures at the Pentagon the end of last week.

601
00:31:10,040 --> 00:31:12,880
Speaker 3: You can't deny that part. This is a big problem, right.

602
00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:16,280
Speaker 12: And not only they were they happened Friday. So he

603
00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:20,600
Speaker 12: had three people. Two of them were very close to him.

604
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:24,280
Speaker 12: They worked for him at the Concerned Concerned Veterans for America.

605
00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:28,920
Speaker 12: Excuse me, Dan Caldwell, not only were there. I didn't

606
00:31:28,960 --> 00:31:32,600
Speaker 12: realize this, but he actually helped VET people for HEXIT

607
00:31:33,440 --> 00:31:36,400
Speaker 12: when Hexit was confirmed. He was he was a handholder

608
00:31:36,440 --> 00:31:40,600
Speaker 12: and said who selected people who would work for hexit?

609
00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:44,320
Speaker 12: Very close, very close. So Friday they came out. He

610
00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:47,720
Speaker 12: came out with a twitter feed twitter feed criticizing their

611
00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:51,080
Speaker 12: removal of joint state, a judge statement for the three people.

612
00:31:52,280 --> 00:31:55,920
Speaker 12: Friday and midday or late afternoon, the New York Times

613
00:31:55,960 --> 00:31:58,600
Speaker 12: comes out with a story about the second signal channel,

614
00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:02,840
Speaker 12: and then it's seven pm. John Elliott's editorial was posted

615
00:32:02,960 --> 00:32:08,200
Speaker 12: at Political on Politico. Seemed pretty uh, pretty coordinated. Like

616
00:32:08,280 --> 00:32:11,200
Speaker 12: the Revenge of the Jedi if you're a Star Wars fan.

617
00:32:11,320 --> 00:32:14,840
Speaker 4: But these guys were showing the door presumably for leaking already, right,

618
00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:15,480
Speaker 4: so they've.

619
00:32:15,240 --> 00:32:18,040
Speaker 12: Got more to leak that you're saying that not me,

620
00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:22,320
Speaker 12: but they have been or they're alleged to have been leaking.

621
00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 12: I'm not putting. I'm not going to put a co

622
00:32:24,800 --> 00:32:27,120
Speaker 12: two and two together in these stories. But your readers

623
00:32:27,120 --> 00:32:28,280
Speaker 12: are your viewers are smart.

624
00:32:28,840 --> 00:32:31,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, well you have to be careful who get fire sometimes?

625
00:32:31,080 --> 00:32:35,120
Speaker 12: It all, it all comes. The seven PM political thing

626
00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:39,040
Speaker 12: was kind of that it shouldn't be. It was moderately coordinated.

627
00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:44,640
Speaker 4: Dwell, Darren Selnick, Colin Carroll and the aforementioned John Elliott

628
00:32:45,200 --> 00:32:48,320
Speaker 4: talking about with more bombshells to drop this week?

629
00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:52,560
Speaker 12: I kind of no, but I'm not going to say really, yeah,

630
00:32:53,240 --> 00:32:54,760
Speaker 12: I don't think it's this week long.

631
00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:56,280
Speaker 3: Does this barrage continue?

632
00:32:56,360 --> 00:32:56,479
Speaker 6: Then?

633
00:32:56,560 --> 00:32:58,440
Speaker 12: So I think here here's a couple of things. He's

634
00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:01,360
Speaker 12: at the Easter rig roll today. I think a lot

635
00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:04,200
Speaker 12: of Washington is going to be wondering what rolls next.

636
00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:08,880
Speaker 12: From the shoulder up. In two weeks will be before

637
00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:12,240
Speaker 12: the Senate Armed Services Committee on a Military posture hearing,

638
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:15,320
Speaker 12: This will may be his make or break moment because

639
00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:18,840
Speaker 12: he's going to get shot at from various venues and

640
00:33:19,080 --> 00:33:23,400
Speaker 12: the President's chief of staff, Susan Willis or Susane Willis,

641
00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:26,320
Speaker 12: so skip pardon me, Susan Wilds. She's going to be

642
00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:28,440
Speaker 12: watching that closely because she's not kind of a key

643
00:33:28,480 --> 00:33:31,680
Speaker 12: from what I understand, to his survival. If she thinks

644
00:33:31,680 --> 00:33:34,800
Speaker 12: he's a liability, he could go the only thing. One

645
00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:36,600
Speaker 12: thing I want to make the point though to it's

646
00:33:36,600 --> 00:33:39,120
Speaker 12: a good thing. The United States doesn't have a national

647
00:33:39,120 --> 00:33:43,200
Speaker 12: security crisis at the moment. Panama and the Canal issues

648
00:33:43,240 --> 00:33:46,480
Speaker 12: not a military crisis. Going after the hoodies is not

649
00:33:46,520 --> 00:33:49,440
Speaker 12: a military crisis. It's a good thing. There's not a

650
00:33:49,520 --> 00:33:52,840
Speaker 12: major crisis where US troops are heavily involved.

651
00:33:53,160 --> 00:33:56,640
Speaker 4: Hexeth, before we heard the remarks we just heard on

652
00:33:56,680 --> 00:34:01,360
Speaker 4: the lawn, took to Twitter. This was on Easter Nights,

653
00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:02,480
Speaker 4: ten forty five pm.

654
00:34:02,560 --> 00:34:03,080
Speaker 3: This is Easter.

655
00:34:03,640 --> 00:34:06,840
Speaker 4: Your agenda is illegals, trans and DEI, all of which

656
00:34:06,880 --> 00:34:10,640
Speaker 4: are no longer allowed at DoD. He was responding to

657
00:34:10,719 --> 00:34:14,480
Speaker 4: a Democratic Party tweet suggesting that he stepped down. This

658
00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:16,920
Speaker 4: is not an administration that's looking to have a conversation

659
00:34:16,960 --> 00:34:18,640
Speaker 4: about this. He could survive for some time.

660
00:34:19,400 --> 00:34:21,719
Speaker 12: He could survive for some time as long as he's

661
00:34:21,760 --> 00:34:27,120
Speaker 12: are similar allegations. If there's some new thing out of the.

662
00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:29,680
Speaker 4: Out of tilk, something classified, the White House says, still

663
00:34:29,719 --> 00:34:33,480
Speaker 4: not classified. He's putting out timing on F eighteens flying

664
00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:36,920
Speaker 4: to Yemen here, which is pretty remarkable. Not unlike we

665
00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:39,160
Speaker 4: saw in the chats that were shared with the Atlantic

666
00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:42,839
Speaker 4: flight schedules for the F eighteen Hornets targeting the hoo

667
00:34:42,880 --> 00:34:43,640
Speaker 4: thies in Yemen.

668
00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:44,560
Speaker 3: That's not fireable.

669
00:34:46,239 --> 00:34:49,560
Speaker 12: It's not fireable if you're this administration. But that's a

670
00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:54,080
Speaker 12: key piece of information if you're a more sophisticated adversary

671
00:34:54,120 --> 00:34:56,879
Speaker 12: than the hoodies, who could have intercepted that and cue

672
00:34:56,880 --> 00:34:59,800
Speaker 12: their air defenses to shoot down those non stealthy F eighteens.

673
00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:03,000
Speaker 4: Four guys are showing the door like this, several of them,

674
00:35:03,040 --> 00:35:05,879
Speaker 4: at least close to Pete. Hegseeth Until now, what does

675
00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:07,560
Speaker 4: that do for morale inside the Pentagon?

676
00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:10,239
Speaker 12: My understanding that it's being the words I'm here. This

677
00:35:10,320 --> 00:35:11,280
Speaker 12: is a clown show.

678
00:35:11,560 --> 00:35:13,080
Speaker 3: This is clown show. Yeah.

679
00:35:13,120 --> 00:35:17,359
Speaker 12: This is one exact quote from a business standpoint from

680
00:35:17,400 --> 00:35:22,560
Speaker 12: a Bloomberg Audian standpoint, Colin Campbell's or Colin Carroll's demise

681
00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:27,120
Speaker 12: is particularly interesting because he was Stephen Feinberg's chief of staff,

682
00:35:27,600 --> 00:35:32,400
Speaker 12: his handholder, his scheduler, his funnel for information about a

683
00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:35,040
Speaker 12: building he knows nothing about. But I'm my understanding is

684
00:35:35,040 --> 00:35:38,600
Speaker 12: that mister Finerberg is being fire hosed with information and

685
00:35:38,640 --> 00:35:41,000
Speaker 12: so he's absorbing in learning, but he's going to be

686
00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:44,440
Speaker 12: out there on his own. From our the Bloomberg audience standpoint,

687
00:35:44,960 --> 00:35:48,239
Speaker 12: this is the key kind of appointment they should be

688
00:35:48,280 --> 00:35:50,120
Speaker 12: watching in terms of who the next chief of staff

689
00:35:50,160 --> 00:35:53,680
Speaker 12: is because mister Feinberg's policies could have major impact on

690
00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:58,720
Speaker 12: companies on procurement, procurement acquisition, the lash up with Silicon Valley.

691
00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:02,880
Speaker 12: This is a kind of key constituency for Bloomberg audience

692
00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:07,120
Speaker 12: in the business industrial the defense industrial base in general.

693
00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:07,719
Speaker 3: Fascinating.

694
00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:09,440
Speaker 4: Are we on the verge of an announcement and I'm

695
00:36:09,480 --> 00:36:11,200
Speaker 4: not trying to change the subject here, but I wonder

696
00:36:11,239 --> 00:36:15,600
Speaker 4: if this could actually turn our focus at the Pentagon

697
00:36:15,640 --> 00:36:18,200
Speaker 4: the announcement of the next generation Navy fighter jet.

698
00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:20,600
Speaker 12: Now, I don't think. I don't see there as a correlation.

699
00:36:20,719 --> 00:36:23,399
Speaker 12: My understanding I was following this pretty closely until about

700
00:36:23,400 --> 00:36:25,640
Speaker 12: a week ago. Is hell up at the os the

701
00:36:25,920 --> 00:36:28,600
Speaker 12: Pentagon level in terms of funding issues? Okay, how do

702
00:36:28,640 --> 00:36:30,520
Speaker 12: you spend? How do you pay for in the twenty

703
00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:34,160
Speaker 12: six through thirty budget. I don't think there's a connection between.

704
00:36:34,120 --> 00:36:36,239
Speaker 4: Mm it is the first trillion dollar defense budget by

705
00:36:36,280 --> 00:36:38,239
Speaker 4: the time they're done with this reconciliation buil, do you

706
00:36:38,320 --> 00:36:38,960
Speaker 4: see it happening?

707
00:36:39,080 --> 00:36:41,000
Speaker 12: Yeah, I mean I wouldn't go too far overboard. It's

708
00:36:41,040 --> 00:36:43,279
Speaker 12: because Secretary of Austin on his way out, and the

709
00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:47,000
Speaker 12: story we broke suggested about a trillion dollars for FY

710
00:36:47,560 --> 00:36:51,400
Speaker 12: twenty six and hitting trillion by twenty seven star.

711
00:36:51,239 --> 00:36:53,560
Speaker 4: A cry from Doge, you know, knocking the stuffing out

712
00:36:53,560 --> 00:36:56,160
Speaker 4: of the Pentagon. I thought defense stocks were falling out

713
00:36:56,200 --> 00:36:58,000
Speaker 4: of bed a couple of weeks ago because Elon Musk

714
00:36:58,040 --> 00:37:00,239
Speaker 4: was going to eliminate all these programs you suggest gonna

715
00:37:00,239 --> 00:37:02,360
Speaker 4: be bigger than ever Austin.

716
00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:05,440
Speaker 12: It was Austin's idea and the Trumpies are following it.

717
00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:08,160
Speaker 4: Okay, well, we'll see. I guess what Pete Hegseth has

718
00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:11,960
Speaker 4: to say about that. The testimony that you mentioned is important.

719
00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:12,920
Speaker 3: It's two weeks.

720
00:37:12,640 --> 00:37:14,399
Speaker 12: Away roughly two weeks away.

721
00:37:14,440 --> 00:37:16,480
Speaker 4: You're either going to see some real bad stories between

722
00:37:16,480 --> 00:37:19,560
Speaker 4: now and then or something actually move, something change in

723
00:37:19,560 --> 00:37:20,640
Speaker 4: the leadership of the Pentagon.

724
00:37:20,680 --> 00:37:24,560
Speaker 12: Now my senses, you may see more bad stories, but

725
00:37:24,719 --> 00:37:29,120
Speaker 12: this is going to be a theater. A chairman Wicker

726
00:37:29,560 --> 00:37:31,400
Speaker 12: is probably gonna have to show some tough love and

727
00:37:31,480 --> 00:37:34,080
Speaker 12: lay into him. He's there's gonna be all eyes on

728
00:37:34,160 --> 00:37:38,040
Speaker 12: his how how hexit performs, how defensive he gets, how

729
00:37:38,080 --> 00:37:42,680
Speaker 12: offensive he gets, how linear are his explanations. He's going

730
00:37:42,719 --> 00:37:45,359
Speaker 12: to take a lot of slings and arrows of out

731
00:37:45,400 --> 00:37:46,840
Speaker 12: rageous fortune. Is that what they said?

732
00:37:46,880 --> 00:37:49,120
Speaker 4: Well, yeah, if you're getting poetic on us. Now, you

733
00:37:49,160 --> 00:37:51,480
Speaker 4: wonder where Donald Trump is with all of this. They

734
00:37:51,480 --> 00:37:54,120
Speaker 4: tend to have Caroline Leventh, Press secretary, somebody go out

735
00:37:54,160 --> 00:37:59,520
Speaker 4: and say something nice. He did speak today about enlistment

736
00:37:59,760 --> 00:38:01,880
Speaker 4: being at a record high level. Is standing there literally

737
00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:04,920
Speaker 4: with the Easter Bunny up on the balcony talking about this.

738
00:38:05,040 --> 00:38:06,600
Speaker 3: He didn't mention Pete hag Seth, but.

739
00:38:06,520 --> 00:38:09,000
Speaker 12: It's it's the numbers have gone up.

740
00:38:09,080 --> 00:38:11,239
Speaker 3: Not a question as to why the numbers.

741
00:38:10,880 --> 00:38:13,719
Speaker 12: Have gone up. It's pretty impressive, but they have gone up,

742
00:38:14,880 --> 00:38:17,640
Speaker 12: and so whether the retention though, whether they actually you

743
00:38:17,680 --> 00:38:20,120
Speaker 12: want to watch those numbers of retention numbers and how

744
00:38:20,160 --> 00:38:22,040
Speaker 12: many people leave the service over the next year.

745
00:38:22,080 --> 00:38:24,160
Speaker 4: Is just the best thing that happened to Michael Watz recently,

746
00:38:26,200 --> 00:38:28,160
Speaker 4: because they're keeping him real quiet since the first.

747
00:38:27,960 --> 00:38:31,439
Speaker 12: Signal because it diverts attention from his signal chat.

748
00:38:31,520 --> 00:38:34,120
Speaker 4: Sure, I don't mean to get conspiratory on you here,

749
00:38:34,160 --> 00:38:35,600
Speaker 4: but he's been very quiet.

750
00:38:35,640 --> 00:38:36,719
Speaker 3: Haven't heard that name in a lot.

751
00:38:37,000 --> 00:38:39,040
Speaker 12: He has not been on the talk shows. This is true.

752
00:38:39,440 --> 00:38:42,319
Speaker 12: You know, they had a flurry of EO executive orders

753
00:38:42,360 --> 00:38:44,520
Speaker 12: a couple of weeks ago that he had some hand in,

754
00:38:44,600 --> 00:38:47,520
Speaker 12: so I think they're still basking in that after glow.

755
00:38:47,760 --> 00:38:51,400
Speaker 4: He was at the cabinet room table sitting next to

756
00:38:51,440 --> 00:38:53,520
Speaker 4: the boss for Georgia Maloney's visit. That was the first

757
00:38:53,520 --> 00:38:55,800
Speaker 4: time I've seen him kind of a place of prominence

758
00:38:55,840 --> 00:38:58,560
Speaker 4: today though it's Pete hag Seth and the Easter Bunny.

759
00:38:59,000 --> 00:39:02,400
Speaker 4: You imagine seeing Leon Panetta William Collen hanging around the

760
00:39:02,400 --> 00:39:03,759
Speaker 4: Easter Bunny doing something like that.

761
00:39:03,920 --> 00:39:07,520
Speaker 12: I think I can't even imagine rumsfell In particularly, that'd

762
00:39:07,520 --> 00:39:09,440
Speaker 12: be word that would be an in Congress image.

763
00:39:10,239 --> 00:39:15,319
Speaker 4: There are noble unknowables no enough.

764
00:39:15,640 --> 00:39:16,960
Speaker 3: Thanks for coming to talk to us.

765
00:39:17,280 --> 00:39:19,920
Speaker 4: I can't imagine what you're gonna have next, but let

766
00:39:20,000 --> 00:39:20,960
Speaker 4: us know when you find out.

767
00:39:21,640 --> 00:39:23,360
Speaker 3: With us from the Pentagon, he's nodding.

768
00:39:23,440 --> 00:39:26,040
Speaker 4: If you're listening on the radio Tony Capasio, our great

769
00:39:26,080 --> 00:39:28,960
Speaker 4: Pentagon reporter, with the latest from what we're told as

770
00:39:28,960 --> 00:39:32,920
Speaker 4: a Pentagon in disarray.

771
00:39:32,480 --> 00:39:35,959
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power Podcast. Catch

772
00:39:36,040 --> 00:39:39,120
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on

773
00:39:39,200 --> 00:39:42,439
Speaker 1: Apple Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

774
00:39:42,520 --> 00:39:45,520
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

775
00:39:45,560 --> 00:39:51,760
Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

776
00:39:51,480 --> 00:39:54,240
Speaker 2: White House Easter Egg Rule Day on this day after

777
00:39:54,400 --> 00:39:57,080
Speaker 2: the holiday, and it was interesting to see not only

778
00:39:57,120 --> 00:40:01,840
Speaker 2: the President doing the usual interacting with the Easter Bunny,

779
00:40:02,200 --> 00:40:04,000
Speaker 2: the first Lady. Of course there as well. There was

780
00:40:04,080 --> 00:40:06,080
Speaker 2: book reading, there was some coloring, but there was also

781
00:40:06,160 --> 00:40:09,040
Speaker 2: some talking with reporters for a President Trump who answered

782
00:40:09,040 --> 00:40:11,120
Speaker 2: a number of questions, of course in part defending his

783
00:40:11,160 --> 00:40:14,239
Speaker 2: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who we were just discussing, but

784
00:40:14,280 --> 00:40:17,400
Speaker 2: also was field in questions show about efforts toward ending

785
00:40:17,440 --> 00:40:19,799
Speaker 2: the war, in Ukraine. When he was asked specifically by

786
00:40:19,800 --> 00:40:22,160
Speaker 2: a reporter if he thought a deal between Russia and

787
00:40:22,280 --> 00:40:24,959
Speaker 2: Ukraine could be made this week, he says he thinks

788
00:40:24,960 --> 00:40:25,800
Speaker 2: there's a good chance.

789
00:40:25,960 --> 00:40:27,040
Speaker 3: Pretty remarkable stuff.

790
00:40:27,040 --> 00:40:30,200
Speaker 4: We were talking about a minerals deal potentially being signed

791
00:40:30,200 --> 00:40:32,920
Speaker 4: this week. You were talking about the whole shebang now

792
00:40:32,920 --> 00:40:36,440
Speaker 4: and it follows reporting over the weekend, some reporting from

793
00:40:36,440 --> 00:40:39,560
Speaker 4: Bloomberg in fact, that there might be some particulars here

794
00:40:39,600 --> 00:40:42,200
Speaker 4: in a deal that Ukraine would have trouble with, including

795
00:40:42,200 --> 00:40:47,120
Speaker 4: codifying CRIMEA as the Russian homeland joining us to talk

796
00:40:47,160 --> 00:40:48,960
Speaker 4: about this and a lot of other stories that are

797
00:40:48,960 --> 00:40:51,120
Speaker 4: impacting today with a new look potentially at the State

798
00:40:51,120 --> 00:40:54,720
Speaker 4: Department coming from this administration. Michael Allen, Managing director Beacon

799
00:40:54,760 --> 00:40:58,120
Speaker 4: Global Strategies and of course, former Special assistant to President

800
00:40:58,160 --> 00:41:01,200
Speaker 4: George W. Bush in the national security space, It's always

801
00:41:01,200 --> 00:41:03,800
Speaker 4: great to have you, Michael, welcome. To see a deal

802
00:41:03,880 --> 00:41:06,440
Speaker 4: signed this week would be pretty remarkable. This, of course,

803
00:41:06,480 --> 00:41:08,480
Speaker 4: is the war that the President said that he would

804
00:41:08,480 --> 00:41:11,239
Speaker 4: bring to an end in his first day. This is

805
00:41:11,320 --> 00:41:13,520
Speaker 4: day ninety. That would mean he gets it done on

806
00:41:13,520 --> 00:41:14,399
Speaker 4: the first one hundred days.

807
00:41:14,480 --> 00:41:16,759
Speaker 13: Is it possible, Well, it's been pending out here for

808
00:41:16,800 --> 00:41:19,640
Speaker 13: a while. Ukraine has said they will accept a thirty

809
00:41:19,719 --> 00:41:23,440
Speaker 13: day cease fire. The Russians, of course, except for the

810
00:41:23,480 --> 00:41:26,520
Speaker 13: Easter Day ceasefire, have not been willing to go that far.

811
00:41:26,880 --> 00:41:29,520
Speaker 13: But if the reporting is true, which is that the

812
00:41:29,560 --> 00:41:33,880
Speaker 13: White House is open to describing Crimea as Russian, and

813
00:41:33,920 --> 00:41:36,880
Speaker 13: maybe there are other inducements in there, perhaps as it

814
00:41:36,920 --> 00:41:41,480
Speaker 13: pertains to sanctions, maybe as it pertains to no Never

815
00:41:41,719 --> 00:41:45,319
Speaker 13: Ukraine cannot get it NATO. I think it's conceivable that

816
00:41:45,320 --> 00:41:47,920
Speaker 13: they could get there. But to me, remember there's a

817
00:41:47,960 --> 00:41:51,920
Speaker 13: long spectrum between ceasefire and peace agreement, and so all

818
00:41:51,960 --> 00:41:54,480
Speaker 13: these issues are going to have to be discussed again well.

819
00:41:54,480 --> 00:41:57,640
Speaker 2: And I wonder if a resolution to these issues doesn't

820
00:41:57,640 --> 00:42:00,319
Speaker 2: happen this week, if you expect the administration will stay

821
00:42:00,320 --> 00:42:02,399
Speaker 2: on the table, because let's remind ourselves of the words

822
00:42:02,400 --> 00:42:04,880
Speaker 2: of the Secretary of State Marco Rubio just on Friday.

823
00:42:06,040 --> 00:42:08,240
Speaker 15: Now, we've reached a point where we have other things

824
00:42:08,239 --> 00:42:10,680
Speaker 15: we have to focus on. We're prepared to be engaged

825
00:42:10,680 --> 00:42:14,239
Speaker 15: in this as long as it takes, but not indefinitely,

826
00:42:14,560 --> 00:42:18,600
Speaker 15: not without progress. If this is not possible, we're going

827
00:42:18,680 --> 00:42:20,440
Speaker 15: to need to move on. I think the President feels

828
00:42:21,120 --> 00:42:23,719
Speaker 15: strongly that we've dedicated a tremendous We've done more in

829
00:42:23,760 --> 00:42:25,680
Speaker 15: eighty days, and Biden never did to bring this war.

830
00:42:25,640 --> 00:42:30,480
Speaker 2: To an end, not indefinitely. So if it's not this week,

831
00:42:30,600 --> 00:42:31,399
Speaker 2: is it not ever?

832
00:42:31,760 --> 00:42:34,759
Speaker 13: It feels like he's leaving himself some room to continue

833
00:42:34,760 --> 00:42:38,200
Speaker 13: after it. But I think they badly need some sort

834
00:42:38,360 --> 00:42:40,680
Speaker 13: of points on the board this week, and I think

835
00:42:40,719 --> 00:42:43,719
Speaker 13: they're probably doubling down to get to the thirty day

836
00:42:43,760 --> 00:42:47,880
Speaker 13: ceasefire so that Trump can point to some progress in this. Otherwise,

837
00:42:47,960 --> 00:42:50,360
Speaker 13: I think what we're going to see is just continued

838
00:42:50,360 --> 00:42:52,960
Speaker 13: bloodshed on either side. I have my own doubts, by

839
00:42:53,000 --> 00:42:55,160
Speaker 13: the way, about whether the Russians are really going to

840
00:42:55,239 --> 00:42:58,640
Speaker 13: adhere to a ceasefire. I think it'll be sloppy, but

841
00:42:58,920 --> 00:43:00,880
Speaker 13: we're just going to have to see what they come

842
00:43:00,960 --> 00:43:01,200
Speaker 13: up with.

843
00:43:01,239 --> 00:43:02,880
Speaker 4: Well, it's quite an evolution to go from Mike and

844
00:43:03,000 --> 00:43:06,320
Speaker 4: end this war in the first day to having still

845
00:43:06,360 --> 00:43:09,720
Speaker 4: really no clear path on day ninety did President Trump

846
00:43:09,719 --> 00:43:11,040
Speaker 4: miss read Vladimir Putin?

847
00:43:11,280 --> 00:43:11,560
Speaker 12: Well?

848
00:43:11,640 --> 00:43:13,960
Speaker 13: I think there's also got to be some sort of

849
00:43:14,080 --> 00:43:17,719
Speaker 13: recognition on the White House side that some of these

850
00:43:17,840 --> 00:43:23,000
Speaker 13: might be insoluble issues. After all, Putin wants to control Ukraine,

851
00:43:23,120 --> 00:43:26,120
Speaker 13: not just its territory, but to dominate its foreign and

852
00:43:26,239 --> 00:43:29,360
Speaker 13: national security policy. This is something, of course, that the

853
00:43:29,480 --> 00:43:33,439
Speaker 13: Ukrainians could never agree to. The Ukrainians cannot, by the way,

854
00:43:33,719 --> 00:43:38,680
Speaker 13: either agree to a formal recognition of some of their territories,

855
00:43:38,760 --> 00:43:42,919
Speaker 13: even those that the Russians don't actually control today as

856
00:43:43,000 --> 00:43:46,520
Speaker 13: formally part of Russia under some fiction that there are

857
00:43:46,600 --> 00:43:49,520
Speaker 13: Russian speakers there. So I think there are a lot

858
00:43:49,520 --> 00:43:52,640
Speaker 13: of fundamental issues that they are going to take months

859
00:43:52,680 --> 00:43:53,759
Speaker 13: to get to if ever.

860
00:43:54,520 --> 00:43:57,359
Speaker 2: Bloomberg is reporting today Michael, that the US is likely

861
00:43:57,400 --> 00:43:59,560
Speaker 2: to hold talks in London on Wednesday with not just

862
00:43:59,719 --> 00:44:03,440
Speaker 2: Ukraine officials but European officials as well, from the UK, France,

863
00:44:04,080 --> 00:44:07,279
Speaker 2: and Germany. What role should we expect europe is going

864
00:44:07,320 --> 00:44:09,080
Speaker 2: to play as this moves forward.

865
00:44:09,200 --> 00:44:12,040
Speaker 13: Well, they have felt locked out of the process so far,

866
00:44:12,200 --> 00:44:15,520
Speaker 13: so I'm glad that Secretary Rebo over the last few

867
00:44:15,560 --> 00:44:17,879
Speaker 13: days has begun to think of a role for them.

868
00:44:18,160 --> 00:44:19,919
Speaker 13: I think for those of us that kind of want

869
00:44:19,920 --> 00:44:23,880
Speaker 13: to see Ukraine's interests more represented, it's good to have

870
00:44:24,040 --> 00:44:28,480
Speaker 13: these European nations involved. After all, Trump is saying, this

871
00:44:28,640 --> 00:44:31,319
Speaker 13: is your security problem in the long term. So they

872
00:44:31,360 --> 00:44:33,520
Speaker 13: need to have some sort of role. They need to

873
00:44:33,560 --> 00:44:36,320
Speaker 13: be there on the takeoff if they want, if Trump

874
00:44:36,360 --> 00:44:38,600
Speaker 13: wants them to be there on the landing. So let's

875
00:44:38,640 --> 00:44:41,520
Speaker 13: figure out a way to get them involved, get them motivated,

876
00:44:41,560 --> 00:44:43,080
Speaker 13: because they're the ones that are going to have to

877
00:44:43,120 --> 00:44:45,000
Speaker 13: supply a lot of the security assurance.

878
00:44:45,160 --> 00:44:49,120
Speaker 4: Iran talks will continue as long as there's another meeting.

879
00:44:49,560 --> 00:44:51,560
Speaker 3: Is this progress I don't think so.

880
00:44:51,640 --> 00:44:54,400
Speaker 13: I think there's a lot of delay inherent. And I

881
00:44:54,440 --> 00:44:57,000
Speaker 13: think what really has happened over the last couple of

882
00:44:57,040 --> 00:45:00,440
Speaker 13: weeks is that Steve Witkoff went in. I think he

883
00:45:00,560 --> 00:45:03,560
Speaker 13: was agreeable. I think some of the things that the

884
00:45:03,640 --> 00:45:07,560
Speaker 13: United States is willing to do was exaggerated. People came

885
00:45:07,600 --> 00:45:10,879
Speaker 13: back last week. I think they stiffened some spines, and

886
00:45:11,160 --> 00:45:16,120
Speaker 13: the United States is back to a tougher aron policy,

887
00:45:16,280 --> 00:45:21,439
Speaker 13: which is we don't want enrichment to continue, and we're

888
00:45:21,480 --> 00:45:25,680
Speaker 13: not going to just give up on inspections of weaponization.

889
00:45:25,840 --> 00:45:28,279
Speaker 13: We talked about this last week. You have to have

890
00:45:28,440 --> 00:45:33,719
Speaker 13: any time, anywhere inspections by the International Watchdog Agency, and

891
00:45:33,760 --> 00:45:35,720
Speaker 13: that has got to be part and parcel of anything

892
00:45:35,760 --> 00:45:36,320
Speaker 13: going forward.

893
00:45:36,640 --> 00:45:39,280
Speaker 2: So if ultimately a deal is to be reached, Hawiken,

894
00:45:39,320 --> 00:45:42,400
Speaker 2: will it be to the original deal from twenty fifteen

895
00:45:42,480 --> 00:45:44,000
Speaker 2: that President Trump walked away from.

896
00:45:44,440 --> 00:45:47,399
Speaker 13: That's what makes this so hard for the Trump team.

897
00:45:47,719 --> 00:45:50,520
Speaker 13: It would seemingly be easier to sign up to something

898
00:45:50,520 --> 00:45:53,520
Speaker 13: that just looks like what Barack Obama did and maybe

899
00:45:53,640 --> 00:45:56,680
Speaker 13: add a few years, but that will look terrible because

900
00:45:56,719 --> 00:45:59,680
Speaker 13: President Trump called that the worst deal ever negotiated in

901
00:45:59,680 --> 00:46:01,719
Speaker 13: the history of the world. And so they're going to

902
00:46:01,840 --> 00:46:04,960
Speaker 13: have to come up with something that's stronger. And when

903
00:46:05,000 --> 00:46:09,040
Speaker 13: the Hawks get involved, like Marco Rubio, like Mike Waltz,

904
00:46:09,239 --> 00:46:12,680
Speaker 13: they're saying, we shouldn't have any enrichment whatsoever, and we

905
00:46:12,760 --> 00:46:15,640
Speaker 13: ought to be able to have some assurances that you're

906
00:46:15,680 --> 00:46:21,960
Speaker 13: not thereby trying to weaponize resultant fissile material to fashion

907
00:46:22,000 --> 00:46:24,560
Speaker 13: it into a bomb. Those are big things we're asking for.

908
00:46:24,760 --> 00:46:27,400
Speaker 13: They're the right things, but that's something that Iron's not

909
00:46:27,440 --> 00:46:29,879
Speaker 13: going to be able to accept anytime soon. So we've

910
00:46:29,880 --> 00:46:33,200
Speaker 13: got to let maximum pressure play out over time. By

911
00:46:33,200 --> 00:46:34,880
Speaker 13: the way, I don't know why we're in such a rush.

912
00:46:34,960 --> 00:46:39,200
Speaker 13: I think there is some time to let Iran bake

913
00:46:39,320 --> 00:46:40,719
Speaker 13: in sort of the sanctions of them.

914
00:46:40,640 --> 00:46:41,120
Speaker 3: For a while.

915
00:46:41,200 --> 00:46:45,080
Speaker 4: Interesting we're having this conversation. I made another scandal at

916
00:46:45,200 --> 00:46:48,560
Speaker 4: the Pentagon. The White House is calling it fake news

917
00:46:48,600 --> 00:46:51,200
Speaker 4: now by NPR that the President is looking for a

918
00:46:51,280 --> 00:46:55,240
Speaker 4: new Defense secretary. But it's no wonder why we're having

919
00:46:55,440 --> 00:46:58,840
Speaker 4: reports like this today. Another signal chat is being reported

920
00:46:58,840 --> 00:47:01,040
Speaker 4: by The New York Times in which Pete hegg Seth

921
00:47:01,080 --> 00:47:04,640
Speaker 4: shared these too many attack plans with his wife and

922
00:47:04,719 --> 00:47:08,799
Speaker 4: some other folks in his personal life. Also follows the

923
00:47:08,840 --> 00:47:12,240
Speaker 4: departure of four officials at the Pentagon last week, fired

924
00:47:12,719 --> 00:47:17,000
Speaker 4: for alleged media leaks. One of them is John Elliott,

925
00:47:17,000 --> 00:47:20,480
Speaker 4: although I believe he also wanted to leave the Pentagon

926
00:47:20,520 --> 00:47:22,360
Speaker 4: here you can frame that as you want. Left the

927
00:47:22,440 --> 00:47:26,080
Speaker 4: department last week with an otbed over the weekend. Pentagon

928
00:47:26,239 --> 00:47:29,040
Speaker 4: is in disarray under Hegsath's leadership.

929
00:47:29,160 --> 00:47:29,640
Speaker 3: Is he right?

930
00:47:30,440 --> 00:47:31,000
Speaker 12: He needs?

931
00:47:31,120 --> 00:47:34,239
Speaker 13: I think Hegseth needs to come out and actually demonstrate

932
00:47:34,280 --> 00:47:36,640
Speaker 13: that he's in control of the department. I think one

933
00:47:36,640 --> 00:47:38,520
Speaker 13: way to do that might be to come out and

934
00:47:38,560 --> 00:47:42,040
Speaker 13: actually brief the Pentagon press corps talk about the things

935
00:47:42,080 --> 00:47:45,400
Speaker 13: that he's trying to do. He's often talking about increasing

936
00:47:45,440 --> 00:47:49,840
Speaker 13: the lethality of the force. Their big questions about doge.

937
00:47:49,920 --> 00:47:52,560
Speaker 13: There are big questions about where the Department is on

938
00:47:52,600 --> 00:47:54,479
Speaker 13: these foreign policy issues of the day.

939
00:47:54,800 --> 00:47:55,640
Speaker 3: I think that would be.

940
00:47:55,560 --> 00:47:58,000
Speaker 13: The best way for Hegseth to try and demonstrate that

941
00:47:58,080 --> 00:48:00,640
Speaker 13: he has control, that he has strength, that he has

942
00:48:00,680 --> 00:48:03,399
Speaker 13: some strong policy views, and then he's doing all these

943
00:48:03,440 --> 00:48:06,319
Speaker 13: things in service of the president. I think to just

944
00:48:06,440 --> 00:48:10,560
Speaker 13: totally dismiss everything as a hoax, it's sort of beyond

945
00:48:10,560 --> 00:48:12,600
Speaker 13: the point. He ought to come out and talk about, Hey,

946
00:48:12,640 --> 00:48:15,120
Speaker 13: here's what I'm trying to do, and sign.

947
00:48:14,960 --> 00:48:15,359
Speaker 3: Up to that.

948
00:48:15,680 --> 00:48:17,239
Speaker 2: But even if he is trying to do all of

949
00:48:17,239 --> 00:48:20,880
Speaker 2: those things, is it not disqualifying to share the whereabouts

950
00:48:20,880 --> 00:48:25,040
Speaker 2: of American airmen the plans for F eighteen flights in Yemen,

951
00:48:25,280 --> 00:48:28,400
Speaker 2: with your wife, with your brother, with your personal attorney.

952
00:48:28,400 --> 00:48:30,799
Speaker 2: People who are not employed by the Defense Department not

953
00:48:30,960 --> 00:48:33,200
Speaker 2: entitled to receive that kind of information.

954
00:48:33,000 --> 00:48:36,120
Speaker 13: I think so. I mean, there's no real way to

955
00:48:36,160 --> 00:48:38,520
Speaker 13: say this other than maybe he should just say, you

956
00:48:38,520 --> 00:48:40,799
Speaker 13: know what, I made a mistake. It wasn't classified, but

957
00:48:41,280 --> 00:48:44,000
Speaker 13: probably shouldn't have been sending it and move on instead.

958
00:48:44,080 --> 00:48:47,239
Speaker 13: I think there's a lot of attacks, there's impugning of

959
00:48:47,280 --> 00:48:50,000
Speaker 13: the motives of the people that are reporting this. I

960
00:48:50,000 --> 00:48:52,120
Speaker 13: think he'd be safer just to sort of say, hey,

961
00:48:52,160 --> 00:48:54,560
Speaker 13: you know what, some mistakes were made. There's an IG's

962
00:48:54,560 --> 00:48:57,080
Speaker 13: investigation going into this. But here's what I'm trying to

963
00:48:57,120 --> 00:48:58,480
Speaker 13: do is sect deaf, A, B and C.

964
00:48:58,800 --> 00:49:03,040
Speaker 4: Well, you know, of course he's talking about anonymous leaks.

965
00:49:03,040 --> 00:49:06,160
Speaker 4: Here we saw four people shown the door. The mention

966
00:49:06,320 --> 00:49:09,000
Speaker 4: of the person I mentioned. John Elliott says that there

967
00:49:09,040 --> 00:49:12,680
Speaker 4: are more bombshells to come, likely in short order, even

968
00:49:12,760 --> 00:49:14,280
Speaker 4: bigger this week.

969
00:49:14,320 --> 00:49:15,960
Speaker 3: Does the Pentagon have a leak problem?

970
00:49:16,360 --> 00:49:19,080
Speaker 13: It sounds like something is going on for sure, where

971
00:49:19,080 --> 00:49:22,600
Speaker 13: there are disaffected people across the department. I'm sure there's

972
00:49:22,640 --> 00:49:25,080
Speaker 13: been a lot of China broken as the new team

973
00:49:25,120 --> 00:49:28,120
Speaker 13: has taken over. So maybe what he's referring to is

974
00:49:28,120 --> 00:49:31,000
Speaker 13: that maybe some uniform military are going to resign or

975
00:49:31,080 --> 00:49:34,560
Speaker 13: be fired. Hard to say for sure, but it feels

976
00:49:34,760 --> 00:49:35,759
Speaker 13: quite rocky over there.

977
00:49:35,840 --> 00:49:38,520
Speaker 2: Well, and I'm wondering about the leaking coming out of

978
00:49:38,520 --> 00:49:40,520
Speaker 2: the State Department as well as the Secretary of Mark

979
00:49:40,560 --> 00:49:43,200
Speaker 2: Or Rubio pushes back also as fake news reporting that

980
00:49:43,239 --> 00:49:46,040
Speaker 2: there's this kind of draft executive order that is circulating

981
00:49:46,040 --> 00:49:49,800
Speaker 2: among diplomats that shows so dramatically the administration is considering

982
00:49:49,840 --> 00:49:52,440
Speaker 2: reshaping the Defense Department, and I wonder, Michael, your specific

983
00:49:52,440 --> 00:49:54,800
Speaker 2: thoughts on the idea that it could include the closing

984
00:49:55,160 --> 00:49:58,279
Speaker 2: of a vast number of embassies in Africa. Does that

985
00:49:58,360 --> 00:50:00,000
Speaker 2: not just seed to China.

986
00:50:00,400 --> 00:50:02,279
Speaker 13: Well, I was going to say the same thing. That

987
00:50:02,440 --> 00:50:05,520
Speaker 13: is the battleground where we are competing with China for

988
00:50:05,680 --> 00:50:08,560
Speaker 13: influence the global South. I don't think it's a good

989
00:50:08,600 --> 00:50:13,000
Speaker 13: idea for us to be shutting down diplomatic offices in Africa.

990
00:50:13,120 --> 00:50:16,200
Speaker 13: Maybe there's something to be done in Western Europe and Canada,

991
00:50:16,280 --> 00:50:20,040
Speaker 13: some consulates here and there where the power has shifted

992
00:50:20,080 --> 00:50:22,799
Speaker 13: to Asia, or we need to get into Africa. So

993
00:50:23,160 --> 00:50:25,200
Speaker 13: I don't want to begrudge them. I'm glad they're taking

994
00:50:25,200 --> 00:50:27,600
Speaker 13: a big strategic look at the State Department. God knows

995
00:50:27,600 --> 00:50:31,120
Speaker 13: it needs some reform. But I wondered, like you did,

996
00:50:31,320 --> 00:50:33,640
Speaker 13: about whether Africa was the place where we should be

997
00:50:33,760 --> 00:50:34,920
Speaker 13: uprooting consulates.

998
00:50:35,040 --> 00:50:39,560
Speaker 4: You're a communications specialist as well as a national security expert,

999
00:50:39,560 --> 00:50:41,680
Speaker 4: which is why we bring you on the program here.

1000
00:50:41,920 --> 00:50:43,640
Speaker 4: If you were trying to clean up a mess here

1001
00:50:43,680 --> 00:50:46,440
Speaker 4: with the Secretary of Defense, the situation like we have today,

1002
00:50:46,680 --> 00:50:50,200
Speaker 4: two hit pieces over the weekend the signal story. You

1003
00:50:50,280 --> 00:50:55,000
Speaker 4: suggested maybe briefing the press corps at the Pentagon. Would

1004
00:50:55,000 --> 00:50:57,760
Speaker 4: that be as opposed to standing him on the south

1005
00:50:57,840 --> 00:51:00,360
Speaker 4: lawn at the White House with a big horn playing

1006
00:51:00,360 --> 00:51:04,120
Speaker 4: in the background, cartoon characters the Easter Bunny jumping around

1007
00:51:04,120 --> 00:51:05,520
Speaker 4: to manage these questions.

1008
00:51:05,239 --> 00:51:08,600
Speaker 13: Today, Well you're mad, you're making it easy. Yes, I

1009
00:51:08,640 --> 00:51:09,799
Speaker 13: think it would be better.

1010
00:51:09,840 --> 00:51:10,840
Speaker 3: What do you make of the optics.

1011
00:51:11,000 --> 00:51:13,880
Speaker 13: There's so much that the SEC deaf is in charge of.

1012
00:51:14,000 --> 00:51:16,759
Speaker 13: There are so many things to be talking about, like

1013
00:51:16,840 --> 00:51:20,000
Speaker 13: the reconstitution of the force, how he wants to shift

1014
00:51:20,040 --> 00:51:23,239
Speaker 13: things to Asia and away from Europe. I think he's

1015
00:51:23,280 --> 00:51:26,680
Speaker 13: mostly on the defensive about just showing up for the

1016
00:51:26,760 --> 00:51:30,520
Speaker 13: Ukraine Contact Group via civets instead of being there in person.

1017
00:51:30,800 --> 00:51:34,600
Speaker 13: He should start to explain his own actions and I

1018
00:51:34,600 --> 00:51:37,399
Speaker 13: think people will understand that, and that, by the way,

1019
00:51:37,520 --> 00:51:39,600
Speaker 13: is a way for him to try to get some

1020
00:51:39,640 --> 00:51:42,800
Speaker 13: support from what he's doing. He needs support in Concress

1021
00:51:42,840 --> 00:51:46,960
Speaker 13: in particular, so he should start explaining what the policy

1022
00:51:47,120 --> 00:51:49,799
Speaker 13: is and I think people might come along all right.

1023
00:51:49,840 --> 00:51:52,240
Speaker 2: Michael Allen, always good to have you here in Washington,

1024
00:51:52,280 --> 00:51:55,160
Speaker 2: d C Studio. He's managing director of Beacon Global Strategies,

1025
00:51:55,280 --> 00:52:00,840
Speaker 2: also former Special Assistant to President George W. Bush.

1026
00:52:01,360 --> 00:52:04,560
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make

1027
00:52:04,600 --> 00:52:07,560
Speaker 4: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

1028
00:52:07,640 --> 00:52:10,200
Speaker 4: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

1029
00:52:10,280 --> 00:52:13,520
Speaker 4: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern

1030
00:52:13,800 --> 00:52:15,240
Speaker 4: at Bloomberg dot com.