1
00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:00,720
Speaker 1: All right, here we.

2
00:00:00,640 --> 00:00:11,360
Speaker 2: Go spreading the corn. Ten seconds of mating. It's gonna

3
00:00:11,400 --> 00:00:13,600
Speaker 2: just go throw half of the basket under the basket.

4
00:00:13,680 --> 00:00:15,080
Speaker 3: It's not a seventh seconds.

5
00:00:15,440 --> 00:00:16,760
Speaker 1: It's the group for the wind.

6
00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:22,880
Speaker 2: God make a miracle. I it's up the water.

7
00:00:24,360 --> 00:00:26,160
Speaker 1: Hit that one from the parking lot.

8
00:00:26,840 --> 00:00:27,800
Speaker 2: Shuck it off.

9
00:00:28,200 --> 00:00:29,720
Speaker 3: It's college basketball.

10
00:00:31,840 --> 00:00:34,880
Speaker 1: It's not the size on the dog in the fight.

11
00:00:35,440 --> 00:00:41,960
Speaker 2: It's the size of the fight in the dog. Welcome back,

12
00:00:41,960 --> 00:00:46,559
Speaker 2: everyone to another episode of the Big Bets on Campus Podcasts.

13
00:00:46,760 --> 00:00:48,760
Speaker 2: I am Matt Cox, your host, one of the three

14
00:00:49,000 --> 00:00:51,440
Speaker 2: founding members of the Three Man Weave, Jim Rut and

15
00:00:51,479 --> 00:00:53,400
Speaker 2: Ki m Kin. You'll hear their lovely voices coming through

16
00:00:53,400 --> 00:00:56,600
Speaker 2: the airwaves soon. Collectively we are the Weave. And the

17
00:00:56,800 --> 00:00:59,280
Speaker 2: topic is college basketball. And it has been all season,

18
00:00:59,400 --> 00:01:01,400
Speaker 2: coming to you every every Wednesday morning with the new

19
00:01:01,480 --> 00:01:05,200
Speaker 2: drop on top of another addition to our slate. Fellas,

20
00:01:05,240 --> 00:01:08,000
Speaker 2: we're doing Saturday drops with our guy Stucky. So college

21
00:01:08,000 --> 00:01:10,360
Speaker 2: basketball just shooting out of a fire hose at your face.

22
00:01:10,400 --> 00:01:14,240
Speaker 2: Put college bass hole behind you. The NFL playoffs are overrated.

23
00:01:14,480 --> 00:01:16,600
Speaker 2: Off to say, sorry, Jim, so just trying to kind

24
00:01:16,600 --> 00:01:18,839
Speaker 2: of hog all of the attention to our beloved sport

25
00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:20,480
Speaker 2: which basically only has one month out of the year

26
00:01:20,520 --> 00:01:24,160
Speaker 2: to shine. Hey a lot to Yeah whatever, Sure, I

27
00:01:24,160 --> 00:01:27,440
Speaker 2: guess lose rams lose would be my addition to that. Hey, Kai,

28
00:01:27,520 --> 00:01:29,760
Speaker 2: this six pack of sections, they haven't changed, you know

29
00:01:29,760 --> 00:01:32,520
Speaker 2: what they are? The live dog of the week, blowout City,

30
00:01:32,920 --> 00:01:35,720
Speaker 2: power game in the week, mid major game of the week,

31
00:01:35,880 --> 00:01:37,840
Speaker 2: the old trash fan our favorite, and then we have

32
00:01:37,840 --> 00:01:40,440
Speaker 2: a spotlight on a few trends. We'll get to a

33
00:01:40,480 --> 00:01:43,920
Speaker 2: lot to discuss today. Let's start off with the pups, Mark.

34
00:01:43,760 --> 00:01:46,119
Speaker 1: Bark, Where's mine?

35
00:01:46,200 --> 00:01:55,400
Speaker 2: Oh dog, Where's mine? As always, we have to recap

36
00:01:55,480 --> 00:01:58,280
Speaker 2: how our picks did last week, and I'd say overall

37
00:01:58,440 --> 00:02:01,440
Speaker 2: good got three outright dog picks to Paul beat Seton Hall.

38
00:02:01,600 --> 00:02:03,840
Speaker 3: I want to say they did better than good. Kile

39
00:02:03,880 --> 00:02:05,920
Speaker 3: whipped up this section last week, and if we had

40
00:02:05,960 --> 00:02:09,480
Speaker 3: just auto bet everything Kay said, we would have made copious.

41
00:02:09,080 --> 00:02:13,280
Speaker 2: Dollars millions, millions, millions. All right, well, Kay, so everyone's

42
00:02:13,280 --> 00:02:15,000
Speaker 2: going to be looking to you as the beacon of hope.

43
00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:17,720
Speaker 2: Then for repeat last weeks before and so that you

44
00:02:17,760 --> 00:02:19,640
Speaker 2: know the old jinks juju that can only go one

45
00:02:19,639 --> 00:02:21,800
Speaker 2: direction for you. But yes to Paul the beat seedon

46
00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:25,080
Speaker 2: Hall Colgate one at Navy Siena. My Saints went marching

47
00:02:25,120 --> 00:02:27,480
Speaker 2: and marriage to got it done, and the Cajuns came

48
00:02:27,560 --> 00:02:32,400
Speaker 2: up just short in Texas State. Unfortunately VCU Camp just short,

49
00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:35,440
Speaker 2: just short, came up. I wanted to kind of ignore

50
00:02:35,440 --> 00:02:36,240
Speaker 2: the bad.

51
00:02:36,840 --> 00:02:39,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, that was a bad that that was me going wrong.

52
00:02:39,320 --> 00:02:39,680
Speaker 3: That was all.

53
00:02:40,040 --> 00:02:41,760
Speaker 2: If you're not going to cover, if you're not going

54
00:02:41,840 --> 00:02:43,919
Speaker 2: to cover, you may as well not cover by fifty.

55
00:02:43,960 --> 00:02:45,760
Speaker 2: That's kind of how I look at it. Speak of

56
00:02:45,760 --> 00:02:47,600
Speaker 2: the devil the Saints, Kai, they're back.

57
00:02:48,520 --> 00:02:50,600
Speaker 3: You didn't mentioned that Organs swept the l A trip.

58
00:02:50,720 --> 00:02:52,840
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, we should talk about that Organ's back. I'm

59
00:02:52,840 --> 00:02:54,880
Speaker 2: just bad. I didn't bet my mortgage on either of

60
00:02:54,919 --> 00:02:59,720
Speaker 2: those games. So I was like, and again, Kai is

61
00:02:59,760 --> 00:03:00,880
Speaker 2: a p and to.

62
00:03:00,960 --> 00:03:01,799
Speaker 3: Kind of improve that.

63
00:03:02,400 --> 00:03:05,000
Speaker 4: Just let's keep building me up, guys. I appreciate this.

64
00:03:05,040 --> 00:03:06,720
Speaker 4: I have some confidence going into this week.

65
00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:07,000
Speaker 1: Thank you.

66
00:03:07,120 --> 00:03:07,400
Speaker 3: Guys.

67
00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:10,239
Speaker 2: You perform best when you're most confident, as we all do.

68
00:03:10,440 --> 00:03:12,040
Speaker 2: But hey, keep the crystal ball out. We'll lead you

69
00:03:12,080 --> 00:03:14,040
Speaker 2: to look into it and pick out swinners for us

70
00:03:14,040 --> 00:03:17,080
Speaker 2: this upcoming weekend. Let's get it going. We have a

71
00:03:17,120 --> 00:03:19,640
Speaker 2: few that are in that short ish spread discussion for

72
00:03:19,720 --> 00:03:22,959
Speaker 2: live dogs, cheap moneyline bets but legitimately have chances to win.

73
00:03:23,040 --> 00:03:25,600
Speaker 2: Then some longer shots, and then I added a few

74
00:03:25,880 --> 00:03:29,040
Speaker 2: complete lunacy home areas to this mix. Started off here

75
00:03:29,080 --> 00:03:31,200
Speaker 2: with my Saints. Yes, they are back in this section.

76
00:03:31,280 --> 00:03:35,200
Speaker 2: They are going to Manhattan this upcoming Friday, and in general,

77
00:03:35,240 --> 00:03:36,880
Speaker 2: I think you're going to see them talked about throughout

78
00:03:36,880 --> 00:03:39,520
Speaker 2: this show through us the year. There's very undervalued right now, Jim,

79
00:03:39,640 --> 00:03:42,120
Speaker 2: a team that was ravaged with injuries. All the analytic

80
00:03:42,200 --> 00:03:44,920
Speaker 2: rankings continue to leave them as like a fringe top

81
00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:46,840
Speaker 2: three hundred team. I don't think any of us agree

82
00:03:46,840 --> 00:03:48,960
Speaker 2: with that sentiment. Are you officially going to endorse the

83
00:03:48,960 --> 00:03:51,400
Speaker 2: Saints going to Manhattan and getting out right witness Saturday?

84
00:03:51,640 --> 00:03:54,400
Speaker 3: I am Matthew. I think the team is, like you said,

85
00:03:54,600 --> 00:03:58,000
Speaker 3: massively undervalued and plus five. I don't think that's what

86
00:03:58,040 --> 00:03:59,600
Speaker 3: the spread will because I think the market is starting

87
00:03:59,640 --> 00:04:01,400
Speaker 3: to catch up to the fact that they were injured

88
00:04:01,440 --> 00:04:04,680
Speaker 3: and are undervalued. But yeah, I think there's very great

89
00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:07,080
Speaker 3: possibility that they win. And I mentioned do you guys

90
00:04:07,120 --> 00:04:08,360
Speaker 3: pre show that I was going to do a little

91
00:04:08,360 --> 00:04:11,360
Speaker 3: caveat about betting just something that I've taken away from

92
00:04:11,360 --> 00:04:13,080
Speaker 3: this year and maybe it is something that affected us.

93
00:04:13,160 --> 00:04:15,800
Speaker 3: I need to watch less games because when I watch

94
00:04:15,800 --> 00:04:18,359
Speaker 3: a bet lose, I just like throw that team in

95
00:04:18,400 --> 00:04:20,360
Speaker 3: the trash and I get furious with it.

96
00:04:20,680 --> 00:04:20,880
Speaker 1: Yep.

97
00:04:20,960 --> 00:04:23,000
Speaker 3: And I had a bet earlier in Sienna this year,

98
00:04:23,040 --> 00:04:24,840
Speaker 3: actually two straight games that I had bet on them

99
00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:27,239
Speaker 3: where they lost in overtime, and I was so mad.

100
00:04:27,480 --> 00:04:30,520
Speaker 3: I like knock their ratings, like that stupid team, how

101
00:04:30,600 --> 00:04:33,080
Speaker 3: dare they? But they were both correct bets. They were

102
00:04:33,080 --> 00:04:35,120
Speaker 3: an underdog in both games and just happened to not

103
00:04:35,160 --> 00:04:37,760
Speaker 3: cover in overtime. So I need to not overreact to

104
00:04:37,800 --> 00:04:40,599
Speaker 3: watching them do dumb things in ot and just focus

105
00:04:40,680 --> 00:04:42,520
Speaker 3: on the fact that this was the smart bet. Trust

106
00:04:42,520 --> 00:04:44,839
Speaker 3: the process. Kai. That is a lesson learned and something

107
00:04:44,839 --> 00:04:46,200
Speaker 3: I would like to give to the people. Don't over

108
00:04:46,200 --> 00:04:48,240
Speaker 3: react to what you watch if it just is making

109
00:04:48,279 --> 00:04:48,760
Speaker 3: you angry.

110
00:04:48,839 --> 00:04:50,719
Speaker 4: Yeah, the eye test, give it the eye test, take

111
00:04:50,720 --> 00:04:53,560
Speaker 4: it away. Jim Matt CNA plus five for Ken Pub

112
00:04:53,640 --> 00:04:55,880
Speaker 4: against Manhattan won't be that, but man, I like them

113
00:04:55,920 --> 00:04:58,080
Speaker 4: on the money line a lot, dude. Manhattan won the

114
00:04:58,120 --> 00:05:00,560
Speaker 4: first game in this matchup in overtime, Sianna was up

115
00:05:00,560 --> 00:05:02,880
Speaker 4: by seventeen in that game, Santa should have won. It's

116
00:05:02,880 --> 00:05:04,919
Speaker 4: good that Manhattan did, though, for our backing of the

117
00:05:04,920 --> 00:05:06,080
Speaker 4: Saints in this matchup, I do.

118
00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:08,680
Speaker 3: Think that was one of my ot Sianna bets.

119
00:05:08,720 --> 00:05:11,799
Speaker 1: Ye, there you go, Sanna for sure.

120
00:05:12,040 --> 00:05:13,960
Speaker 2: Yep, this is one of the few I will endorse.

121
00:05:14,000 --> 00:05:15,760
Speaker 2: I'm trying to be more selective, more picky. Can't just

122
00:05:15,839 --> 00:05:17,680
Speaker 2: spread the board and touted two. You got right if

123
00:05:17,680 --> 00:05:18,000
Speaker 2: you picked.

124
00:05:18,160 --> 00:05:20,320
Speaker 3: So why did you add these insane hill Mary's at

125
00:05:20,320 --> 00:05:20,520
Speaker 3: the back?

126
00:05:20,680 --> 00:05:23,480
Speaker 2: Because oh no, I'm gonna I'll do it real quickly. Hey,

127
00:05:23,520 --> 00:05:25,680
Speaker 2: I just think anything at plus one seventy five are

128
00:05:25,720 --> 00:05:27,240
Speaker 2: better for Siana. I think it's a pretty good bet.

129
00:05:27,279 --> 00:05:30,760
Speaker 2: There here the other three that Jim so astutely added

130
00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:32,920
Speaker 2: to the list. I'm a little bit less hyped about

131
00:05:32,920 --> 00:05:35,800
Speaker 2: the following, but I think all very valid candidates for

132
00:05:35,839 --> 00:05:39,599
Speaker 2: outright wins. SMU goes to Memphis on Thursday, the Pony

133
00:05:39,640 --> 00:05:42,680
Speaker 2: Express going into uh to the FedEx Forum there. South

134
00:05:42,760 --> 00:05:45,560
Speaker 2: Dakota State going to Saint Thomas on Thursday, a big

135
00:05:45,640 --> 00:05:48,120
Speaker 2: summit showdown two of th most prolific shooting teams in

136
00:05:48,160 --> 00:05:50,719
Speaker 2: college basketball this season, and then the fourth one the

137
00:05:50,760 --> 00:05:53,359
Speaker 2: horn frogs, he see you going to Oklahoma State. This

138
00:05:53,400 --> 00:05:55,560
Speaker 2: one's on Wednesday, so tonight. If you're listening to this

139
00:05:55,720 --> 00:05:57,800
Speaker 2: fresh off the drop kind of going to you, which

140
00:05:57,800 --> 00:06:00,599
Speaker 2: of these three catch your eye? If not multiple.

141
00:06:00,680 --> 00:06:02,760
Speaker 4: I don't love the Memphis one because they have lost

142
00:06:02,760 --> 00:06:04,240
Speaker 4: two in a row and they're back at home here.

143
00:06:04,640 --> 00:06:06,279
Speaker 4: Those two are on the road, so I'm staying away

144
00:06:06,320 --> 00:06:08,800
Speaker 4: from that one. I don't love the Saint Thomas one, Matthew,

145
00:06:08,839 --> 00:06:10,480
Speaker 4: even though I do like the Tommies. I just think

146
00:06:10,520 --> 00:06:13,359
Speaker 4: South Dakota State is too powerful, could be blow out potential.

147
00:06:13,440 --> 00:06:16,280
Speaker 4: But I do like TCU. I do think they can

148
00:06:16,360 --> 00:06:18,840
Speaker 4: win at Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State has certainly been better

149
00:06:18,880 --> 00:06:20,680
Speaker 4: at home, but they just played the game of their

150
00:06:20,720 --> 00:06:23,719
Speaker 4: lives against Baylor, and TCU has been sneaky good this season.

151
00:06:23,880 --> 00:06:26,400
Speaker 4: Really do think they're a good candidate for a moneyline play.

152
00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:28,799
Speaker 3: Yep, I'm with you on that TCU one. That spot

153
00:06:28,880 --> 00:06:31,839
Speaker 3: is terrific, like Oklahoma State one. At Baylor team can't

154
00:06:31,839 --> 00:06:33,960
Speaker 3: play in the postseason, like that was their super Bowl.

155
00:06:34,040 --> 00:06:35,440
Speaker 3: Like that's as good as you can do. You win

156
00:06:35,520 --> 00:06:37,120
Speaker 3: at the number one team in the country. That's the

157
00:06:37,160 --> 00:06:39,200
Speaker 3: peak of their existence this year. I don't think they're

158
00:06:39,200 --> 00:06:41,200
Speaker 3: going to like lay a total egg and get blown

159
00:06:41,240 --> 00:06:43,320
Speaker 3: out by TCU. But I just it's hard to get

160
00:06:43,400 --> 00:06:45,599
Speaker 3: up the same way after a game like that, whereas

161
00:06:45,600 --> 00:06:48,080
Speaker 3: TCU stills legitimate at large hopes. So I think it

162
00:06:48,160 --> 00:06:50,080
Speaker 3: just means a little more for the horn Frogs. I

163
00:06:50,120 --> 00:06:53,040
Speaker 3: get this skepticism on SMU and St. Thomas. I'm not

164
00:06:53,080 --> 00:06:55,839
Speaker 3: fully endorsing either one. I will just say South Dakota

165
00:06:55,839 --> 00:06:58,200
Speaker 3: State has lost at a worse team that is a

166
00:06:58,240 --> 00:06:59,880
Speaker 3: three point shooting barrage candidate.

167
00:07:00,160 --> 00:07:00,480
Speaker 1: That's sure.

168
00:07:00,520 --> 00:07:00,799
Speaker 2: Wow.

169
00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:02,880
Speaker 3: At Idaho gave one hundred points. I think it was

170
00:07:02,960 --> 00:07:06,320
Speaker 3: ninety eight. And this is such a wide variance game.

171
00:07:06,440 --> 00:07:08,279
Speaker 3: Ken Palm has a total at one hundred and sixty

172
00:07:08,320 --> 00:07:10,240
Speaker 3: eight points. Both these teams are going to fire up

173
00:07:10,240 --> 00:07:12,440
Speaker 3: threes and neither plays any defense. If the Tommies are

174
00:07:12,480 --> 00:07:14,680
Speaker 3: hot at home, they theoretically could get that done.

175
00:07:14,840 --> 00:07:17,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Tommys can say, I see your shooting jack Bunnies,

176
00:07:17,400 --> 00:07:20,480
Speaker 2: and I raise you these thirty foot bombs that we

177
00:07:20,560 --> 00:07:23,480
Speaker 2: continue to hit a blistering hot clip. It's insane. How

178
00:07:23,480 --> 00:07:25,240
Speaker 2: good a shitting team the Tommies are this year.

179
00:07:25,480 --> 00:07:27,760
Speaker 3: That's I highly recommend watching that one because I think

180
00:07:28,080 --> 00:07:28,720
Speaker 3: a blast of it.

181
00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:31,480
Speaker 2: Yes, like a good old fashioned YMCA men's league where

182
00:07:31,560 --> 00:07:33,800
Speaker 2: there's all shooting and no defense play. That's that's what

183
00:07:33,840 --> 00:07:36,160
Speaker 2: you'll see there. A couple of long shots. Kai any

184
00:07:36,160 --> 00:07:38,520
Speaker 2: interest in the following. I like these two examples or

185
00:07:38,560 --> 00:07:41,560
Speaker 2: these two potential money line picks here looking at low

186
00:07:41,640 --> 00:07:45,880
Speaker 2: double digit spread most likely Charleston going to thousand on Thursday,

187
00:07:45,920 --> 00:07:48,480
Speaker 2: Colonial match there and then my favorite. So far, we've

188
00:07:48,480 --> 00:07:51,640
Speaker 2: discussed Missouri State at Loyola. The Blurs have struggled so

189
00:07:51,760 --> 00:07:54,640
Speaker 2: far quote unquote in conference play, not been as dominants

190
00:07:54,640 --> 00:07:56,800
Speaker 2: we've seen them throughout the non conference, and I would

191
00:07:56,880 --> 00:07:59,400
Speaker 2: argue Missouri State's talent is as good, if not better

192
00:07:59,440 --> 00:08:00,920
Speaker 2: than Loyola. What say you?

193
00:08:01,320 --> 00:08:02,600
Speaker 1: Yeah? I like both.

194
00:08:02,760 --> 00:08:04,600
Speaker 4: Charleston, I'm not sure I'm gon take the money line

195
00:08:04,600 --> 00:08:07,680
Speaker 4: because towsand truly is very very good this season. Now,

196
00:08:07,720 --> 00:08:09,920
Speaker 4: I guarantee I'm going to be on them with the points.

197
00:08:10,160 --> 00:08:12,880
Speaker 4: I guarantee I'll back them as a dog here. Missouri State, though,

198
00:08:12,920 --> 00:08:15,000
Speaker 4: is interesting, and I like how Jim put it in

199
00:08:15,040 --> 00:08:17,360
Speaker 4: the outline here, guys, and you can't see it out there,

200
00:08:17,400 --> 00:08:20,480
Speaker 4: but Jim will has repeatedly played with fire, and the

201
00:08:20,480 --> 00:08:22,440
Speaker 4: Bears are good enough to burn them. That's a great line.

202
00:08:22,560 --> 00:08:25,120
Speaker 4: Credits Jim Root. I think Missouri State can and will

203
00:08:25,120 --> 00:08:26,200
Speaker 4: get it done against Lola.

204
00:08:26,320 --> 00:08:30,000
Speaker 3: Wow. Yeah see. I think maybe this one. Missouri State's

205
00:08:30,040 --> 00:08:32,200
Speaker 3: good enough to wake up the Ramblers and like bring

206
00:08:32,240 --> 00:08:34,240
Speaker 3: out a better performance where they kind of slept walk

207
00:08:34,320 --> 00:08:36,839
Speaker 3: through the home game against Valpo. The other home game

208
00:08:36,840 --> 00:08:39,800
Speaker 3: that went to overtime is escaping me. Was it Bradley Bradley?

209
00:08:39,840 --> 00:08:43,360
Speaker 3: It was Bradley and they got down big in Indiana

210
00:08:43,400 --> 00:08:45,920
Speaker 3: State early. You just can't keep doing that in a

211
00:08:46,080 --> 00:08:49,080
Speaker 3: very parody ridden league like the Missouri Valley without eventually

212
00:08:49,120 --> 00:08:51,000
Speaker 3: taking a loss. Missouri State's good enough to do it,

213
00:08:51,040 --> 00:08:52,880
Speaker 3: but I'm not predicting that one. I think I'm going

214
00:08:52,920 --> 00:08:55,080
Speaker 3: to take the Cougars though, I think bounce back after

215
00:08:55,120 --> 00:08:57,760
Speaker 3: they lost at home the UNC Wilmington and potentially no

216
00:08:57,880 --> 00:08:59,599
Speaker 3: Terry Nolan for Towson. I just I think it was

217
00:08:59,600 --> 00:09:00,880
Speaker 3: gonna be good value on that event.

218
00:09:01,040 --> 00:09:03,360
Speaker 2: Don't hate either of those. I would Missouri State will

219
00:09:03,360 --> 00:09:05,600
Speaker 2: be when I officially endorse. It's just it's a pardy

220
00:09:05,640 --> 00:09:07,600
Speaker 2: ridden league gym, but like a really good lead, not

221
00:09:07,679 --> 00:09:10,240
Speaker 2: just like a MAC type of Perry orders like random

222
00:09:10,280 --> 00:09:12,600
Speaker 2: results all over the board. Just a lot of good teams,

223
00:09:12,600 --> 00:09:14,760
Speaker 2: and Wyale has been I think inflated above where they

224
00:09:14,760 --> 00:09:17,240
Speaker 2: probably should be relative to their peers. I'm gonna throwing

225
00:09:17,320 --> 00:09:18,920
Speaker 2: one last one and you guys are gonna laugh at me,

226
00:09:19,040 --> 00:09:22,200
Speaker 2: but sorry, I deal with it. Hartford at Vermont, you're

227
00:09:22,200 --> 00:09:25,920
Speaker 2: looking at probably a price of plus fifteen hundred. Spread

228
00:09:25,960 --> 00:09:28,680
Speaker 2: should be high double digits. Harper hasn't played in ages.

229
00:09:28,800 --> 00:09:31,560
Speaker 2: This is the reigning a East Tournament champion. Some weird

230
00:09:31,559 --> 00:09:33,400
Speaker 2: stuff can happen in the America East and you get

231
00:09:33,400 --> 00:09:36,360
Speaker 2: Tracy carter Back, presumably coming off the long COVID shutdown.

232
00:09:36,520 --> 00:09:37,800
Speaker 2: I think that's worth ten bucks.

233
00:09:37,880 --> 00:09:39,760
Speaker 4: I think you're crazy. There's no way hard for beats

234
00:09:39,800 --> 00:09:40,480
Speaker 4: Vermont in the road.

235
00:09:40,559 --> 00:09:45,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, Vermont's smacking people in that league. I'm out on that, all.

236
00:09:45,040 --> 00:09:47,400
Speaker 2: Right, ten bucks to one, one fifty pass If you

237
00:09:47,760 --> 00:09:49,880
Speaker 2: are a fool like these two are, okay, Hey, quick

238
00:09:49,920 --> 00:09:51,800
Speaker 2: recap of what we actually like. So I'm gonna go

239
00:09:51,800 --> 00:09:54,559
Speaker 2: to Missouri State and Hartford because I'm a nut job. Sienna,

240
00:09:54,600 --> 00:09:56,000
Speaker 2: Missouri State and Hartford.

241
00:09:56,280 --> 00:09:58,199
Speaker 1: I'll take Santa TCU and Missouri.

242
00:09:57,960 --> 00:10:00,800
Speaker 3: State I'm joining on Sienna, so that's a Rio agreement.

243
00:10:00,960 --> 00:10:03,600
Speaker 3: Also TCU with Kai and I'm going Charleston. I think

244
00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:04,640
Speaker 3: they win at Houston.

245
00:10:11,000 --> 00:10:14,120
Speaker 2: Let's talk about some blowouts, some potentials for the upcoming week.

246
00:10:14,160 --> 00:10:16,840
Speaker 2: But before we do that, not a great call by

247
00:10:16,920 --> 00:10:19,400
Speaker 2: us last week with our picks here, we were just

248
00:10:19,440 --> 00:10:22,440
Speaker 2: snooze through the Idaho game. Yeah, Murray State Belmont, I

249
00:10:22,440 --> 00:10:24,120
Speaker 2: mean that game was just nuts. I don't think there

250
00:10:24,200 --> 00:10:24,520
Speaker 2: was something.

251
00:10:24,920 --> 00:10:27,600
Speaker 3: I think we overlooked at Murray State and Belmont look

252
00:10:27,600 --> 00:10:29,880
Speaker 3: ahead spots that they were playing each other that Saturday,

253
00:10:29,960 --> 00:10:33,000
Speaker 3: and so the midweek game they weren't as sharp that game.

254
00:10:33,160 --> 00:10:33,840
Speaker 1: Not Belmont though.

255
00:10:33,920 --> 00:10:36,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, the game got switched last second to a different opponent.

256
00:10:36,920 --> 00:10:38,560
Speaker 4: So I think we get a pass for that one.

257
00:10:38,760 --> 00:10:41,600
Speaker 2: Okay, good, Well we'll hope the scorekeepers agree. Okay, yeah,

258
00:10:41,600 --> 00:10:44,000
Speaker 2: we would appreciate that. All right, here's an initial two

259
00:10:44,040 --> 00:10:46,160
Speaker 2: for off the top. Man. I just feel like Eastern

260
00:10:46,160 --> 00:10:49,000
Speaker 2: Illinois has been a pinata of this organization so far,

261
00:10:49,040 --> 00:10:51,040
Speaker 2: and you know what, why why not? Jim? They've been

262
00:10:51,040 --> 00:10:53,640
Speaker 2: helpless despite trying to play really slow, they still find

263
00:10:53,679 --> 00:10:55,840
Speaker 2: ways to not even score thirty points in a game.

264
00:10:55,960 --> 00:10:58,040
Speaker 2: Murray State, well, yes, it could be a sleepy spot,

265
00:10:58,120 --> 00:11:00,880
Speaker 2: especially after the Belmont game and if the fact that

266
00:11:00,880 --> 00:11:03,200
Speaker 2: they're actually to be playing Eastern Illinois by the way,

267
00:11:03,520 --> 00:11:07,320
Speaker 2: just a couple of days before already did. But yes,

268
00:11:07,320 --> 00:11:09,680
Speaker 2: they played yesterday Monday.

269
00:11:09,800 --> 00:11:11,520
Speaker 3: Yes, both Murray State and we were stayed in the

270
00:11:11,520 --> 00:11:14,240
Speaker 3: same section here because they're both teams are playing the

271
00:11:14,280 --> 00:11:17,000
Speaker 3: same opponent Thursday that they played Monday and the favorite.

272
00:11:17,080 --> 00:11:19,360
Speaker 3: Murray State and we were both covered on the road

273
00:11:19,600 --> 00:11:21,440
Speaker 3: in the first game. But now you're going back home.

274
00:11:21,520 --> 00:11:23,439
Speaker 3: Spread is going to be inflated in both because of

275
00:11:23,440 --> 00:11:26,280
Speaker 3: the cover because their home court is flipping. I'm kind

276
00:11:26,280 --> 00:11:28,600
Speaker 3: of with you, Matt. I think you get snoozy efforts

277
00:11:28,679 --> 00:11:30,680
Speaker 3: from both here. So I actually don't like either of

278
00:11:30,720 --> 00:11:31,560
Speaker 3: these that I wrote down.

279
00:11:31,760 --> 00:11:35,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, I agree. I think both dogs cover this one

280
00:11:35,160 --> 00:11:37,800
Speaker 4: at home. Bounce back a little bit. Yeah you twenty

281
00:11:37,800 --> 00:11:40,920
Speaker 4: eight points spread? Oh god, Murray doesn't care about this

282
00:11:40,920 --> 00:11:41,960
Speaker 4: game at all, no chance.

283
00:11:42,160 --> 00:11:45,079
Speaker 3: Yeah. Yeah, it was only down like twelve ten a

284
00:11:45,160 --> 00:11:47,440
Speaker 3: halftime in the last one. I think they can hang

285
00:11:47,480 --> 00:11:49,200
Speaker 3: around enough that they're not going to go back to fifty.

286
00:11:49,280 --> 00:11:51,440
Speaker 2: I like that we're expanding the parameters of blowout city

287
00:11:51,480 --> 00:11:54,240
Speaker 2: to actually fading, potential blowouts good spots, and I think

288
00:11:54,240 --> 00:11:55,800
Speaker 2: that's going to be just more common as we go

289
00:11:55,840 --> 00:12:00,760
Speaker 2: throughout conference play. Typically, typically kai large dogs and conference

290
00:12:00,800 --> 00:12:03,360
Speaker 2: are usually pretty good bets. However, I do like staying

291
00:12:03,400 --> 00:12:05,120
Speaker 2: true to the name of this section with this next one.

292
00:12:05,120 --> 00:12:07,560
Speaker 2: At Jim pointed out Colorado State hosting New Mexico, and

293
00:12:07,600 --> 00:12:10,720
Speaker 2: that is tonight listening on Wednesday. The Lobos have been

294
00:12:10,720 --> 00:12:13,600
Speaker 2: a team that we've liked, that we've backed quite a

295
00:12:13,600 --> 00:12:15,679
Speaker 2: bit this season, but I think the injury bug is

296
00:12:15,679 --> 00:12:18,240
Speaker 2: starting to catch up with them. Jim, and Colorado State

297
00:12:18,400 --> 00:12:21,760
Speaker 2: is a teammate you're not looking to go into at altitude.

298
00:12:21,880 --> 00:12:23,520
Speaker 2: If you're kind of limping in there, they can put

299
00:12:23,559 --> 00:12:25,160
Speaker 2: it on you in a hurry. And I think they

300
00:12:25,240 --> 00:12:26,520
Speaker 2: win by twenty in this game.

301
00:12:26,679 --> 00:12:28,880
Speaker 3: Yeah. The quotes from New Mexico right now don't don't

302
00:12:28,880 --> 00:12:32,320
Speaker 3: really encourage me. After they're the most recent blowout loss

303
00:12:32,520 --> 00:12:34,360
Speaker 3: or one of their blow out losses they lost at

304
00:12:34,640 --> 00:12:36,600
Speaker 3: I think it was n LV, just some like we

305
00:12:36,640 --> 00:12:39,600
Speaker 3: didn't compete kind of stuff. They sounded disheartened. They don't

306
00:12:39,600 --> 00:12:41,199
Speaker 3: have a lot of size. I think David Roddy could

307
00:12:41,200 --> 00:12:43,360
Speaker 3: go thirty five to fifteen this is when I do

308
00:12:43,400 --> 00:12:45,840
Speaker 3: think will be a blowout. Like you said at altitude

309
00:12:45,880 --> 00:12:46,840
Speaker 3: tough tough spot here.

310
00:12:47,040 --> 00:12:49,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, in Mexico, State just isn't the same team without

311
00:12:49,679 --> 00:12:51,600
Speaker 4: their big men that have gotten hurt or left the

312
00:12:51,640 --> 00:12:54,920
Speaker 4: program recently, so they could be in trouble against Colorado State.

313
00:12:55,080 --> 00:12:57,480
Speaker 2: And let's quickly laugh at Georgia real quick here, who

314
00:12:57,520 --> 00:13:00,720
Speaker 2: will be likely catching three touchdowns and maybe more in

315
00:13:00,760 --> 00:13:03,120
Speaker 2: a conference game. That's because they're gonna go play at Auburn,

316
00:13:03,200 --> 00:13:05,120
Speaker 2: a team that's like a miny juggernaut right now. I

317
00:13:05,120 --> 00:13:08,120
Speaker 2: actually think Georgia covers this game just based on cheer.

318
00:13:08,800 --> 00:13:10,960
Speaker 2: Auburn kind of sleepwalks to the second half. But maybe

319
00:13:11,040 --> 00:13:14,800
Speaker 2: george is just that bad. I think Auburn covers ninety

320
00:13:14,960 --> 00:13:15,720
Speaker 2: sixty Auburn.

321
00:13:16,360 --> 00:13:19,000
Speaker 3: I think Georgia maybe sneaks in the back door because

322
00:13:19,040 --> 00:13:22,280
Speaker 3: Matt Auburn won't be that motivated because they're the first

323
00:13:22,320 --> 00:13:23,120
Speaker 3: power game of the week.

324
00:13:24,480 --> 00:13:28,199
Speaker 2: Great transition Gym two, section number three. The power game

325
00:13:28,400 --> 00:13:32,280
Speaker 2: of the week. Got some good ones on tap here. Yes,

326
00:13:32,320 --> 00:13:35,080
Speaker 2: Auburn is hosting Kentucky this Saturday. Should be a pretty

327
00:13:35,280 --> 00:13:38,280
Speaker 2: good game. Kai two of these teams are very good

328
00:13:38,320 --> 00:13:40,800
Speaker 2: and they have good players. That's my expert analysis on

329
00:13:40,840 --> 00:13:42,720
Speaker 2: the intro there. I think Kentucky wins.

330
00:13:43,000 --> 00:13:44,360
Speaker 1: I don't. I think Auburn wins.

331
00:13:44,400 --> 00:13:46,200
Speaker 4: And I think if you get a price like Kim

332
00:13:46,200 --> 00:13:48,640
Speaker 4: pomp suggests, where Auburn's a two point favorite at home,

333
00:13:48,800 --> 00:13:52,000
Speaker 4: suggesting that Kentucky is better than on a neutral, I

334
00:13:52,080 --> 00:13:54,120
Speaker 4: like Auburn. I think Auburn's a better team on a neutral.

335
00:13:54,200 --> 00:13:56,360
Speaker 4: They have the better pro, the best player on the floor,

336
00:13:56,480 --> 00:13:59,160
Speaker 4: they have depth at every position, and I think Kessler

337
00:13:59,480 --> 00:14:01,960
Speaker 4: Walker Kess there is a great matchup or at least

338
00:14:01,960 --> 00:14:05,120
Speaker 4: a a some kind of wall that takes she way

339
00:14:05,120 --> 00:14:08,560
Speaker 4: a while to get through instead of like a total stopper. Yeah,

340
00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:10,240
Speaker 4: Auburn for me on Saturday.

341
00:14:10,000 --> 00:14:12,679
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think there's maybe still some preseason stuff that's

342
00:14:12,720 --> 00:14:15,480
Speaker 3: waiting and keeping Kentucky ahead of Auburn, Like Auburn has

343
00:14:15,520 --> 00:14:18,199
Speaker 3: been ridiculous. They've done nothing wrong this year, and Matt

344
00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:21,400
Speaker 3: Kentucky has played a potential number one pick power forward

345
00:14:21,520 --> 00:14:24,240
Speaker 3: with shooting range and could not guard him. That was

346
00:14:24,240 --> 00:14:26,800
Speaker 3: Paulo Bankaro in the opener. I don't know how they

347
00:14:26,880 --> 00:14:29,360
Speaker 3: deal with Jabari Smith in this one. Kean Brooks basically

348
00:14:29,360 --> 00:14:31,520
Speaker 3: got mentioned in that game because he couldn't handle Bancaro.

349
00:14:31,600 --> 00:14:34,280
Speaker 3: They were trying different looks through Jacob topping at him,

350
00:14:34,320 --> 00:14:36,120
Speaker 3: but I think Smith can take him into the post.

351
00:14:36,360 --> 00:14:39,080
Speaker 3: I think there are some matchup concerns for Kentucky, and

352
00:14:39,120 --> 00:14:41,960
Speaker 3: although they're getting more confident ty Ty Washington's played great

353
00:14:42,040 --> 00:14:44,560
Speaker 3: lately since Severe Wheeler was banged up, I still think

354
00:14:44,760 --> 00:14:47,480
Speaker 3: in the jungle Auburn at home. I bet this line's three,

355
00:14:47,600 --> 00:14:49,720
Speaker 3: not two, and so I probably won't bet it, but

356
00:14:49,760 --> 00:14:51,280
Speaker 3: if it is too I will take the Tigers.

357
00:14:51,480 --> 00:14:53,240
Speaker 2: I think my hot take here is I like Kentucky's

358
00:14:53,280 --> 00:14:56,240
Speaker 2: backcourt better. Wendell Green and kJ Johnson have been phenomenal

359
00:14:56,240 --> 00:14:58,760
Speaker 2: this season. I just think eventually they're going to come

360
00:14:58,800 --> 00:15:00,560
Speaker 2: back down to earth to some degree. I'm not saying

361
00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:03,320
Speaker 2: they're not good. They're obviously great, but my goodness, like

362
00:15:03,320 --> 00:15:05,360
Speaker 2: what we saw Wendell Green do it Alabama was just

363
00:15:05,400 --> 00:15:06,560
Speaker 2: free dunk you list.

364
00:15:06,680 --> 00:15:08,240
Speaker 3: I can I add a note to that. It was

365
00:15:08,520 --> 00:15:10,360
Speaker 3: interesting to me. I was on the field of sixty

366
00:15:10,400 --> 00:15:12,640
Speaker 3: eight after Dark Show, which I have Goodman and Rob Dster,

367
00:15:12,760 --> 00:15:15,120
Speaker 3: and Goodman was saying that even the Auburn coaching staff

368
00:15:15,240 --> 00:15:17,560
Speaker 3: is like a little surprised by how good Green's been.

369
00:15:17,600 --> 00:15:19,520
Speaker 3: And he's like they won't explicitly say that, but in

370
00:15:19,560 --> 00:15:21,480
Speaker 3: the preseason, they weren't like, this guy's going to be

371
00:15:21,480 --> 00:15:23,720
Speaker 3: an all conference player. The hype wasn't there. I think

372
00:15:23,760 --> 00:15:25,640
Speaker 3: they had the same that everyone else did.

373
00:15:25,800 --> 00:15:28,200
Speaker 2: Okay, I mean the guy from he's in Kentucky. They

374
00:15:28,200 --> 00:15:31,560
Speaker 2: guy Patrick Kentucky who was like inefficient and low major conference. Yeah,

375
00:15:31,560 --> 00:15:32,320
Speaker 2: I'm also shocked.

376
00:15:32,640 --> 00:15:34,800
Speaker 3: I mean, hey, he was Leomi Air's point guard as

377
00:15:34,800 --> 00:15:35,640
Speaker 3: a senior in high school.

378
00:15:35,640 --> 00:15:37,200
Speaker 2: He has had every right to be good. But yeah,

379
00:15:37,200 --> 00:15:39,480
Speaker 2: he's just and he looks the part too, Like I

380
00:15:39,480 --> 00:15:41,320
Speaker 2: know he's small, but man, he just plays with like that.

381
00:15:41,400 --> 00:15:43,600
Speaker 2: Bryce Brown, Jared Harper. I just love the parallels. They're

382
00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:46,160
Speaker 2: too easy. It's low hanging frough with those comparisons, all right,

383
00:15:46,200 --> 00:15:48,320
Speaker 2: Ker going back to SEC, I wonder how many times

384
00:15:48,320 --> 00:15:50,000
Speaker 2: I'm gonna bet Alabama at home when they're gonna let

385
00:15:50,040 --> 00:15:52,120
Speaker 2: me down. But in this one, and this is tonight

386
00:15:52,120 --> 00:15:55,120
Speaker 2: for those of you listening, they're hosting LSU Ken Palm

387
00:15:55,160 --> 00:15:57,360
Speaker 2: has this basically at a Pickham and that's just an

388
00:15:57,400 --> 00:16:00,960
Speaker 2: indictment on how poorly Alabama's played. Nate Oates continues to

389
00:16:01,080 --> 00:16:03,680
Speaker 2: sound off about how his team lacks toughness. Just got

390
00:16:03,760 --> 00:16:05,880
Speaker 2: James Rojas back last game. Kind of think he can

391
00:16:05,880 --> 00:16:08,760
Speaker 2: provide some of that physical punch they neededside, But is

392
00:16:08,800 --> 00:16:10,400
Speaker 2: just BAMA team just not what we thought.

393
00:16:10,640 --> 00:16:13,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, they're not quite as good as we expect in

394
00:16:13,440 --> 00:16:16,160
Speaker 4: the preseason. Turns out Herb Jones, the SC Player of

395
00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:18,440
Speaker 4: the Year was pretty important. And John Petty as well,

396
00:16:18,480 --> 00:16:21,440
Speaker 4: who's All Conference guy for them. Yeah, LSU scares me.

397
00:16:21,480 --> 00:16:24,000
Speaker 4: Both teams coming off losses. Alabama's lost three straight. You

398
00:16:24,000 --> 00:16:26,000
Speaker 4: could argue they need this game a lot more. Probably

399
00:16:26,000 --> 00:16:28,720
Speaker 4: still know Zager Pinson for LSU. That helps a lot

400
00:16:28,760 --> 00:16:31,600
Speaker 4: for Alabama. I think certainly they need all the help

401
00:16:31,600 --> 00:16:33,520
Speaker 4: they can get. The way they're playing defense in the

402
00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:37,080
Speaker 4: SEC so far this season. I tenderly towards Alabama. It's

403
00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:39,920
Speaker 4: a high home crowd here, high home spot. If no

404
00:16:40,000 --> 00:16:42,240
Speaker 4: Pins in the lineup, I think Alabama can get this

405
00:16:42,320 --> 00:16:42,760
Speaker 4: game done.

406
00:16:42,960 --> 00:16:45,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm with I'm with Matt. I'll be betting Alabama

407
00:16:45,160 --> 00:16:48,000
Speaker 3: here at anything like probably minus two or better with

408
00:16:48,080 --> 00:16:50,480
Speaker 3: Ken Palm having it one. I maybe without Pinson n

409
00:16:50,640 --> 00:16:52,640
Speaker 3: even you know, up to around three. I think it's

410
00:16:52,680 --> 00:16:55,280
Speaker 3: a great spot for him. Their schedule is crazy. I mean,

411
00:16:55,480 --> 00:16:57,600
Speaker 3: they've played the second toughest schedule in the country right now,

412
00:16:57,640 --> 00:17:00,680
Speaker 3: behind Villanova, and coming up on the dock, They've got

413
00:17:00,760 --> 00:17:03,280
Speaker 3: Miszoo at home, which they need a revenge bounce back there,

414
00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:06,280
Speaker 3: then at Georgia they do, and then it's Baylor at

415
00:17:06,280 --> 00:17:09,879
Speaker 3: Auburn Kentucky. Like, there's no harder three game stretch in

416
00:17:09,880 --> 00:17:12,240
Speaker 3: the entire country. I don't think than that three game

417
00:17:12,280 --> 00:17:14,800
Speaker 3: stretch for Alabama. And they already have this crazy tough schedule,

418
00:17:14,840 --> 00:17:17,880
Speaker 3: So catching LSU a little banged up, you can get

419
00:17:17,880 --> 00:17:20,360
Speaker 3: a Q one win here. I think this is massive

420
00:17:20,400 --> 00:17:22,679
Speaker 3: for the Tide. Matchup concerns a little bit matt just

421
00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:25,840
Speaker 3: because them going against the length of LSU is not ideal.

422
00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:28,320
Speaker 3: But maybe this is the game where Alabama's defense actually

423
00:17:28,320 --> 00:17:31,240
Speaker 3: shows up because LSU's offense will allow that. So I

424
00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:32,200
Speaker 3: like the title spot.

425
00:17:32,359 --> 00:17:34,600
Speaker 2: I like the Tide more because of the offensive end.

426
00:17:34,680 --> 00:17:39,119
Speaker 2: Despite my defense centric intro there, here's why they're shooting

427
00:17:39,160 --> 00:17:42,160
Speaker 2: twenty seven percent an SEC Conference game so far. It's

428
00:17:42,160 --> 00:17:45,720
Speaker 2: through a five game sample. LSU. While their front pressure

429
00:17:45,920 --> 00:17:48,359
Speaker 2: is sometimes terrifying, if you can kind of break that

430
00:17:48,440 --> 00:17:51,600
Speaker 2: and soften that, they're still not always super connected, and

431
00:17:51,800 --> 00:17:55,240
Speaker 2: they have those like old well weighed leaves shooters wide open.

432
00:17:55,240 --> 00:17:56,760
Speaker 2: I think they're surrendering like one of the highest three

433
00:17:56,760 --> 00:17:58,640
Speaker 2: point rates in the country, Like Alabama will get looks

434
00:17:58,640 --> 00:18:00,119
Speaker 2: in this game and they're gonna hit them. Event for

435
00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:01,440
Speaker 2: this season. I think this is the game where they

436
00:18:01,440 --> 00:18:04,000
Speaker 2: go fifteen to thirty. Everyone's like, oh Bama's back, and

437
00:18:04,040 --> 00:18:06,159
Speaker 2: it's probably an overaction, but I think in this spot

438
00:18:06,800 --> 00:18:09,400
Speaker 2: they fall for him. Go Tide the last one here

439
00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:11,800
Speaker 2: near and dear to my heart, former I you alumni

440
00:18:11,800 --> 00:18:15,120
Speaker 2: that I am. The Hoosiers are hosting the boiler Makers

441
00:18:15,200 --> 00:18:18,880
Speaker 2: in Bloomington. This is on Thursday. Mister mccainn. Purdue off

442
00:18:18,960 --> 00:18:23,159
Speaker 2: that barn Burner Instant Classic at Illinois. Can anyone, and

443
00:18:23,200 --> 00:18:25,959
Speaker 2: I mean anyone, including Tray Jackson, Davis and all American

444
00:18:26,000 --> 00:18:28,520
Speaker 2: can Can anyone stop Zach Edy inside anyone?

445
00:18:29,720 --> 00:18:32,800
Speaker 4: They will try, but they cannot, And Purdue is going

446
00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:35,400
Speaker 4: to get their second straight win at Assembly Haul after

447
00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:38,880
Speaker 4: beating Illinois on the Thursday. I hate Produce smashes them.

448
00:18:38,880 --> 00:18:41,200
Speaker 4: How about that smash Purdue?

449
00:18:41,240 --> 00:18:44,320
Speaker 3: Yeah? I hate this matchup for Indiana. I think their

450
00:18:44,359 --> 00:18:47,800
Speaker 3: strength is inside feeding Tray Jackson Davis dominating the rim

451
00:18:47,880 --> 00:18:49,880
Speaker 3: on both ends, and they're playing a team that's better

452
00:18:50,000 --> 00:18:52,280
Speaker 3: at the rim on both ends than them, like having

453
00:18:52,480 --> 00:18:54,879
Speaker 3: Edie and they're having Williams. Those guys can score one

454
00:18:54,960 --> 00:18:58,120
Speaker 3: d one and Edie will score and if Williams starts

455
00:18:58,119 --> 00:18:59,560
Speaker 3: to score, then you double. And he's like the best

456
00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:02,359
Speaker 3: passer in the Big Ten. He is an unbelievable passer.

457
00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:05,160
Speaker 3: He wants to make highlight passes and he's capable of it.

458
00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:08,920
Speaker 3: I think the guard advantage is stark for Purdue as well,

459
00:19:09,000 --> 00:19:10,840
Speaker 3: like Jade and Ivy's best guard in the floor by far.

460
00:19:11,840 --> 00:19:13,560
Speaker 3: This is a game where Zavier Johnson probably has a

461
00:19:13,560 --> 00:19:16,240
Speaker 3: couple of crippling turnovers during a big Purdue run. So

462
00:19:16,359 --> 00:19:19,080
Speaker 3: even at Assembly Hall with that juice helping to keep

463
00:19:19,119 --> 00:19:21,159
Speaker 3: Indiana in it, I think Purdue is the side here.

464
00:19:21,160 --> 00:19:23,560
Speaker 3: It's a master ups just too strong and Matt Painter

465
00:19:23,600 --> 00:19:24,600
Speaker 3: has owned Indiana.

466
00:19:24,680 --> 00:19:27,520
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, and like that going into assembly is like

467
00:19:27,880 --> 00:19:30,320
Speaker 2: that in no way intimidates Purdue at all. Like with

468
00:19:30,320 --> 00:19:32,679
Speaker 2: with Painter at the Helm, I hate to say it,

469
00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:35,399
Speaker 2: it just hasn't mattered in recent matchups. The only wa

470
00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:36,919
Speaker 2: IU I think wins this game is if you get

471
00:19:36,960 --> 00:19:40,280
Speaker 2: a big, unsuspecting game from like a Tamar Bates or

472
00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:42,480
Speaker 2: a Trey Galloway or a Jordan Geronima, like one of

473
00:19:42,520 --> 00:19:46,359
Speaker 2: the athletic wings. Who can if there's a weakness Purdue defensively,

474
00:19:46,359 --> 00:19:48,639
Speaker 2: that's probably where it is. But man, they've been erratic

475
00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:50,400
Speaker 2: and who know, Woodson might play those guys thirty minutes,

476
00:19:50,520 --> 00:19:52,520
Speaker 2: might play two minutes. That's a whole other, separate discussion

477
00:19:52,520 --> 00:19:54,560
Speaker 2: for the IU fan forums we don't have to dwelve into.

478
00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:56,160
Speaker 2: But anyway, I agree, I think Forduy gets it done

479
00:19:56,160 --> 00:19:56,480
Speaker 2: on the road.

480
00:19:56,560 --> 00:19:59,760
Speaker 3: Last thirteen meetings, Purdue ten to two and one against

481
00:19:59,760 --> 00:20:02,960
Speaker 3: the against ten wins against the spread, and then twelve

482
00:20:03,000 --> 00:20:06,880
Speaker 3: and one straight up, so.

483
00:20:05,800 --> 00:20:07,840
Speaker 2: And you'll be probably laying what a Fueld goal here?

484
00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:09,840
Speaker 2: No more than that. So basically you're basically if you're

485
00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:11,400
Speaker 2: betting purduget Is to win the game, as.

486
00:20:11,440 --> 00:20:13,400
Speaker 3: I bet it. My guess is it's three and a half.

487
00:20:13,440 --> 00:20:17,320
Speaker 3: Because everyone just watched Purdue on national TV win at Illinois,

488
00:20:17,320 --> 00:20:18,800
Speaker 3: and they'll be like, well, they're going to win in Indiana,

489
00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:21,520
Speaker 3: of course, so maybe they'll they'll make you pay a

490
00:20:21,520 --> 00:20:23,040
Speaker 3: little bit of a premium to be unproduced.

491
00:20:23,080 --> 00:20:24,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think they should. I think that's wise. Okay,

492
00:20:25,000 --> 00:20:28,640
Speaker 2: mid major games of the week, got some nice ones here, Kai,

493
00:20:28,640 --> 00:20:31,640
Speaker 2: we got a Maction showdown, we got a Conference USA showdown,

494
00:20:31,680 --> 00:20:33,960
Speaker 2: and we're going out west. We'll start it there. Let's

495
00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:37,439
Speaker 2: go out west. On Saturday. San Diego State is hosting Boise,

496
00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:39,920
Speaker 2: and I think this is pretty much we can argue

497
00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:41,560
Speaker 2: the two best teams right now in the conference. We've

498
00:20:41,560 --> 00:20:45,240
Speaker 2: seen Nevada slide, Kylao State's been good but shown cracks.

499
00:20:45,400 --> 00:20:47,720
Speaker 2: The as Techs and the Broncos have had I think

500
00:20:47,800 --> 00:20:51,000
Speaker 2: the most jaw dropping, eyebrow raising moments so far in

501
00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:53,400
Speaker 2: conference plan. I'm prepared to pronounce in the two best

502
00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:55,680
Speaker 2: teams in this league. The as Techs at home probably

503
00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:58,120
Speaker 2: gonna lay close to a Fueld goal minus four, minus five.

504
00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:00,920
Speaker 2: We'll see where the ods makers open it. Looking at it, I.

505
00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:03,080
Speaker 4: Think San Diego State gets it done now. Boys has

506
00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:05,600
Speaker 4: been awesome in conference play. Their defense has been great

507
00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:08,199
Speaker 4: this season. San Diego State's evens even better, and I

508
00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:10,320
Speaker 4: think it's shocks Boise a little bit. I think they're

509
00:21:10,320 --> 00:21:12,760
Speaker 4: shooting out of their collective asses right now. I think

510
00:21:12,760 --> 00:21:15,639
Speaker 4: it comes back to earth against a truly elite defense

511
00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:16,440
Speaker 4: San Diego State.

512
00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:17,480
Speaker 1: I like the Aztecs.

513
00:21:17,760 --> 00:21:20,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't think it's quite San Diego State nukes

514
00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:23,240
Speaker 3: Colorado State thirty point blowout level bad, But I think

515
00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:25,679
Speaker 3: it's San Diego State's game as well. I had no

516
00:21:25,760 --> 00:21:28,080
Speaker 3: idea that Boise State was up to forty first at

517
00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:31,760
Speaker 3: ken Pom, like they are just rocketing up ratings right now.

518
00:21:31,880 --> 00:21:33,840
Speaker 3: Blowing out that at that is a big part of that.

519
00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:36,800
Speaker 3: But man, that I think has depressed the spread down

520
00:21:36,840 --> 00:21:39,200
Speaker 3: to three or four. I will make it much higher myself.

521
00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:41,400
Speaker 3: I will be on the Aztecs big, big home spot,

522
00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:43,480
Speaker 3: and I think the matchup is poor for Boise They

523
00:21:43,560 --> 00:21:45,159
Speaker 3: love to drive to the rim and you can't do

524
00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:46,800
Speaker 3: that against MENSA in this pack line.

525
00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:49,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, just how good boys he's been basically has framed

526
00:21:49,840 --> 00:21:51,800
Speaker 2: them as like an equal with San Diego State and

527
00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:53,920
Speaker 2: the analytic metrics, which we know the odds makers will

528
00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:56,600
Speaker 2: closely track. We got to give RESPECTI viahas at home.

529
00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:58,240
Speaker 2: It's a great home crowd. The show will be going

530
00:21:58,320 --> 00:22:00,480
Speaker 2: nuts if you do only anything for I think you

531
00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:01,840
Speaker 2: had to take the text here, even though it's not

532
00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:03,840
Speaker 2: really an offense. You want to trust laying anything more

533
00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:06,040
Speaker 2: than like three but I think that's probably the right side.

534
00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:08,480
Speaker 3: The one thing to make sure is that there will

535
00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:11,720
Speaker 3: be full stands with Omicron stuff very good California, So

536
00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:13,199
Speaker 3: I just yet, I'm not one hundred percent sure what

537
00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:13,480
Speaker 3: that'll be.

538
00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:16,879
Speaker 2: On Saturday, they had a big home conference game against Fresno.

539
00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:19,320
Speaker 2: I didn't catch that end of December, so maybe look

540
00:22:19,359 --> 00:22:20,760
Speaker 2: back at the attendance there. Just want to get early.

541
00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:23,960
Speaker 2: In nitty gritty Kai, let's move back in time to Friday,

542
00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:27,240
Speaker 2: Toledo at Ohio. Talk about two of the top contenders

543
00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:31,200
Speaker 2: in its respective conference. This time the M single A C.

544
00:22:31,880 --> 00:22:34,240
Speaker 2: The key thing here matchup wise is both teams are

545
00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:38,040
Speaker 2: downy soft inside, but man, they can score guards, wings, playmakers,

546
00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:40,879
Speaker 2: shop makers abundant on both ends. So I guess I

547
00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:42,679
Speaker 2: like the over as I talk myself into it. But

548
00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:45,159
Speaker 2: from a side perspective, I'm flipping a coin. Do you

549
00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:46,080
Speaker 2: have any edge either way?

550
00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:46,520
Speaker 1: Man?

551
00:22:46,560 --> 00:22:49,679
Speaker 4: I'm kind of leaning Toledo. Toledo number one in the

552
00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:52,520
Speaker 4: conference right now in offense and defense for KIMPOM, but

553
00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:55,320
Speaker 4: it feels a little fluky because part of that is

554
00:22:55,400 --> 00:22:58,520
Speaker 4: teams are simply missing shots against them twenty six percent

555
00:22:58,560 --> 00:23:01,600
Speaker 4: from three against Toledo this year, MAC opponents are shooting

556
00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:04,600
Speaker 4: and Toledo's allowing among the most the highest rate of

557
00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:08,000
Speaker 4: threes in conference play. Teams are simply missing, whereas an

558
00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:10,879
Speaker 4: Ohio defense that rank second in that league. I believe

559
00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:13,720
Speaker 4: in more. It's more, Hey, we're getting stops inside in

560
00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:15,880
Speaker 4: the interior. Two pointers are tough to score against us.

561
00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:18,240
Speaker 4: We're taking away the three little bit better than Toledo.

562
00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:20,760
Speaker 4: I just kind of think Toledo is the better team

563
00:23:20,840 --> 00:23:22,600
Speaker 4: right now, which is kind of weird to say with

564
00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:24,239
Speaker 4: Ohio all banged up the way they are.

565
00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:26,760
Speaker 3: Jim, Yeah, Ohio's kind of ridden the magic of Mark

566
00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:29,720
Speaker 3: Sears to this point where I think Toledo's a better team,

567
00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:32,400
Speaker 3: and Ryan Rollins has quietly been probably the second best

568
00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:35,480
Speaker 3: player in the league. Both these teams sophomore studs as

569
00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:38,560
Speaker 3: the lead ball handler. Built very similarly. Both have versatile bigs.

570
00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:41,040
Speaker 3: They want to invert the floor, open up driving lanes,

571
00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:42,840
Speaker 3: and attack that way, which is why I do agree

572
00:23:42,880 --> 00:23:44,760
Speaker 3: with Matt. I think there's a lot of points here.

573
00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:46,879
Speaker 3: Neither team's going to really stop the other. But I

574
00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:49,880
Speaker 3: just trust Toledo a little bit more right now, because,

575
00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:52,760
Speaker 3: like I said, Ohio's basically down to six guys, and

576
00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:55,239
Speaker 3: that's if Miles Brown is in, So Toledo's just got

577
00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:55,919
Speaker 3: a little more to him.

578
00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:59,199
Speaker 2: Yeah, Ohio is missing Brown, arguably their best defender on

579
00:23:59,240 --> 00:24:02,080
Speaker 2: their perimeter and then up front Dwight Wilson and I think.

580
00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:07,080
Speaker 3: Those mcday two, Yeah, they're down to six man rotation.

581
00:24:07,359 --> 00:24:09,239
Speaker 2: I think the Tweather defense has shown cracks. I think

582
00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:10,959
Speaker 2: Ohio has the best player on the floor, with all

583
00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:13,400
Speaker 2: due respects Ryan Rollins, but Toledo has the better supporting

584
00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:16,840
Speaker 2: cast given the personnel absences on the Bobcats side. So

585
00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:18,760
Speaker 2: all that's to say, nothing strong for me. I do

586
00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:20,520
Speaker 2: have a stronger take in this one though. Jim got

587
00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:23,320
Speaker 2: to talk about our guy Junior lofton Louisiana Tech hosting

588
00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:26,359
Speaker 2: ua B just been an absolute force inside and his

589
00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:29,240
Speaker 2: supporting cast has been I think even better than advertised.

590
00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:32,320
Speaker 2: And I think collectively they've risen up the charts. The UAV,

591
00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:34,720
Speaker 2: I mean, they put people in torture chamber with that pressure.

592
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:36,760
Speaker 2: I'm just laughing at what I saw in the second

593
00:24:36,800 --> 00:24:38,639
Speaker 2: half against FIU over the weekend, where it was like,

594
00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:40,399
Speaker 2: oh my goodness, this is men versus boys out here.

595
00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:42,600
Speaker 2: I feel bad for FIU. Basically, it will be around

596
00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:46,960
Speaker 2: to pick them most likely at was it Ruxton rustin Louisiana, Yeah, Rusten.

597
00:24:47,359 --> 00:24:49,880
Speaker 3: I like Louisiana Tech more. I enjoy watching the team

598
00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:52,600
Speaker 3: where I love Junior Lofton. I think it's probably it's

599
00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:55,200
Speaker 3: tough to not back UA be here. I think Jamison

600
00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:58,520
Speaker 3: can give Lofton some issues one v one. He's big

601
00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:00,680
Speaker 3: enough to at least battle with him, and that takes

602
00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:03,200
Speaker 3: away some of the ball movement and slashing that Leuisiana

603
00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:05,280
Speaker 3: Tech gets off of his double teams. And I just

604
00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:07,560
Speaker 3: I don't know if I trust Lisiana Tech's guards fully

605
00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:09,439
Speaker 3: against the depth and the pressure that the Blazers are

606
00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:11,040
Speaker 3: going to throw at him. So as much as I

607
00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:13,280
Speaker 3: love Louisiana Tech, can I have a conference future on

608
00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:16,280
Speaker 3: the Bulldogs and not on UAB. I'm worried that this

609
00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:17,080
Speaker 3: is uab's game.

610
00:25:17,160 --> 00:25:17,320
Speaker 2: Kai.

611
00:25:17,520 --> 00:25:19,439
Speaker 4: I do think it's uab's game as well, But you

612
00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:22,160
Speaker 4: look back at last year, Latch took care of him

613
00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:24,639
Speaker 4: both games. Lofton even had a good game in one

614
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:26,320
Speaker 4: of them. He had twenty one points, was the MVP

615
00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:28,320
Speaker 4: of that game. So yeah, in my head, I think, oh,

616
00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:30,920
Speaker 4: this is a great UAB matchup. But history has shown

617
00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:32,880
Speaker 4: Ltech and Hang and lo Tech has had a much

618
00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:35,000
Speaker 4: better year I think than even we expect that we.

619
00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:35,960
Speaker 1: Were high on than preseason.

620
00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:37,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, you got to find a way to take care

621
00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:39,960
Speaker 2: of the ball against UAB. If you can get past

622
00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:42,160
Speaker 2: that first wave of pressure, you have a chance, and

623
00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:44,760
Speaker 2: that's kind of key to getting the ball inside to Lofton.

624
00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:46,320
Speaker 2: Otherwise you render his impact.

625
00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:46,560
Speaker 1: Moot.

626
00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:49,600
Speaker 2: I'm really torn that I want to go UAB all

627
00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:51,200
Speaker 2: the way and man, I gotta respect a lot of

628
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:52,880
Speaker 2: techs done, so I'm going to back off my initial

629
00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:57,240
Speaker 2: Harlan wishy washy, I'm lacking confidence, kai Hey. Section number

630
00:25:57,280 --> 00:25:59,119
Speaker 2: five is due out here. The trash ban pick of

631
00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:01,600
Speaker 2: the week, That trash man pick of the week.

632
00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:05,520
Speaker 1: I'm the trash man. Just throw me the trash, your garbage,

633
00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:09,720
Speaker 1: and you know it, totally unreliable, undependable it that's it.

634
00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:10,399
Speaker 1: You've been told off.

635
00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:11,000
Speaker 2: How do you like that?

636
00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:11,720
Speaker 1: Good?

637
00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:15,199
Speaker 2: I'm laughing that we talked about Milwaukee last week and

638
00:26:15,200 --> 00:26:18,480
Speaker 2: they won by thirty five despite not having Patrick Baldwin junior.

639
00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:20,720
Speaker 2: Crazy that an NBA lottery pick means nothing, but that

640
00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:23,480
Speaker 2: team is in disarray and when you play Iepui good

641
00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:28,640
Speaker 2: things happen. So Virginia at Pittsburgh is a very app

642
00:26:28,880 --> 00:26:31,480
Speaker 2: choice for our trash Man Pick of the Week in

643
00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:35,000
Speaker 2: this week's episode. One hundred and fifteen point total. Kyle,

644
00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:37,480
Speaker 2: we have talked about before, how if you catch a

645
00:26:37,560 --> 00:26:40,800
Speaker 2: Virginia total below one twenty, good things usually happen. And

646
00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:43,680
Speaker 2: it's Pittsburgh, which has immense size up front. This feels

647
00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:46,320
Speaker 2: like the immovable object meets the immovable object.

648
00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:49,239
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm late in Virginia. I know pitt hunks up

649
00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:51,359
Speaker 4: with them the first game, but Eva was four for

650
00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:54,359
Speaker 4: twenty one from outside the arc. That's kind of anomaly,

651
00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:57,440
Speaker 4: and they shot sixty five percent inside too, like pitt

652
00:26:57,480 --> 00:26:59,480
Speaker 4: was not stopping a single thing against them.

653
00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:00,359
Speaker 1: I like the under.

654
00:27:00,400 --> 00:27:02,200
Speaker 4: I know the total's gonna be low, but this game

655
00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:04,000
Speaker 4: was one hundred and thirteen points in game one and

656
00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:06,440
Speaker 4: both teams scored pretty efficiently. The pace is going to

657
00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:09,280
Speaker 4: be just so so so slow, and a crawl hints

658
00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:11,000
Speaker 4: it's in our trash Man Pick of the week. So

659
00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:13,400
Speaker 4: I'm leaving Virginia. I'm winning the under.

660
00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:16,080
Speaker 3: Yep, I'm right in step with Kai. I think both

661
00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:18,120
Speaker 3: of those are the sides that I'll be on. It's

662
00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:21,640
Speaker 3: Virginia only laying like two or three at pitt this year.

663
00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:24,439
Speaker 3: I know Virginia has been bad, but man, that seems

664
00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:27,200
Speaker 3: like I get Tony Bennett at a major discount against

665
00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:28,800
Speaker 3: Jeff Caple. I have to take that match.

666
00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:30,520
Speaker 2: You have to take it. And here's why. By the way,

667
00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:32,639
Speaker 2: they were at sixty fourth and KEMP Palm Virginia was,

668
00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:35,160
Speaker 2: they've now dropped to eightieth after losing it a home

669
00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:37,199
Speaker 2: to Wake, a game by the way, they've led for

670
00:27:37,359 --> 00:27:39,760
Speaker 2: like most of the way. So we're gonna drop them

671
00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:42,400
Speaker 2: fifteen spots because of a game that they just blew

672
00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:44,640
Speaker 2: a lead late. Like I think that's not blaming KEMP

673
00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:46,320
Speaker 2: Pom's model. I'm saying because of the way that game

674
00:27:46,359 --> 00:27:48,280
Speaker 2: played out, you actually have some more value on the

675
00:27:48,320 --> 00:27:50,520
Speaker 2: who's on top of the whole Tony Bennet VERSU Jeff

676
00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:52,119
Speaker 2: Caple thing. What's for all on board with so go

677
00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:57,760
Speaker 2: who's last section spotlight on, We're gonna do some surprising

678
00:27:57,800 --> 00:27:59,920
Speaker 2: ATS records and I think we're also going to add it.

679
00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:02,880
Speaker 2: Few other scheduling spots that are worth noting, especially as

680
00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:05,199
Speaker 2: COVID has condensed some of these conference schedules coming down

681
00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:06,560
Speaker 2: in the stretch here, you got to keep your eye

682
00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:09,159
Speaker 2: on teams playing five games in eight days. A lot

683
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:10,600
Speaker 2: of that last year. I think we're starting to see

684
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:13,679
Speaker 2: more of that this season. The first four sum of

685
00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:16,880
Speaker 2: teams that we want to get to San Francisco, Drake, Winthrop,

686
00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:19,639
Speaker 2: and you see Santa Barbara Kai, all teams that we

687
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:22,119
Speaker 2: liked relatively coming into the year. The Dons five and

688
00:28:22,119 --> 00:28:25,200
Speaker 2: twelve against the number Drake three and twelve, went Throup

689
00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:28,160
Speaker 2: four and ten, and you see Santa Barbara three and nine.

690
00:28:28,240 --> 00:28:31,240
Speaker 2: Pick a team and discuss why they are in a tailspin.

691
00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:35,879
Speaker 4: I think all four of these teams were overrated analytically preseason.

692
00:28:35,960 --> 00:28:38,720
Speaker 4: I think San Francisco is still a very good team

693
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:41,240
Speaker 4: and probably the most deserving of being close to that level.

694
00:28:41,280 --> 00:28:43,239
Speaker 4: But you have teams like Drake and Winthrop who were

695
00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:46,719
Speaker 4: propped up last season by just insane efficiency. Winthrop had

696
00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:49,360
Speaker 4: a different coach last year. Drake had Yasufu, who is

697
00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:52,160
Speaker 4: another guard that could play with pen or without pin.

698
00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:55,560
Speaker 4: Was a huge booon to that team. Santa Barbara we LOSTO.

699
00:28:55,600 --> 00:28:58,280
Speaker 4: Don't mentioned All America in McLaughlin. This one makes the

700
00:28:58,320 --> 00:29:01,560
Speaker 4: most sense why they're struggling this year, even with Amadusau

701
00:29:01,680 --> 00:29:03,840
Speaker 4: in the lineup, this team just hasn't been very good.

702
00:29:03,880 --> 00:29:05,040
Speaker 4: So I'm not worried about the Dons.

703
00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:06,000
Speaker 1: I'm kind of worried.

704
00:29:05,800 --> 00:29:08,280
Speaker 4: About Drake Jim the way they've barely squeaked by every

705
00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:09,440
Speaker 4: single ponent in the valley.

706
00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:10,880
Speaker 1: And I'm not worried about went through as well.

707
00:29:11,040 --> 00:29:13,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, Drake's had mega injury issues like last year, end

708
00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:16,080
Speaker 3: of the year, they're dealing with Penn out and hemp

709
00:29:16,120 --> 00:29:18,080
Speaker 3: Pill out and now they're kind of at that stage

710
00:29:18,120 --> 00:29:21,040
Speaker 3: again where Penn was out, Hemphill's been out, the player

711
00:29:21,120 --> 00:29:23,200
Speaker 3: Debrees has been banged up, so it's Penn like those

712
00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:25,760
Speaker 3: guys are playing through injuries. The San Francisco and was

713
00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:27,520
Speaker 3: just interesting to me because I feel like there's such

714
00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:31,480
Speaker 3: a love for them this year of like WCC four teams,

715
00:29:31,520 --> 00:29:33,520
Speaker 3: look how good they are. They're I think like thirteen

716
00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:36,280
Speaker 3: and two straight up or something like that, and they

717
00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:38,800
Speaker 3: actually because of where they were priced early guy, as

718
00:29:38,840 --> 00:29:41,960
Speaker 3: you mentioned, I like top thirty at KEMPOM preseason. It's

719
00:29:41,960 --> 00:29:44,720
Speaker 3: hard to live up to that standard and going five

720
00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:47,560
Speaker 3: and twelve against the spread isn't actually saying they can't

721
00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:50,080
Speaker 3: make the NCAA tournament. Or anything. It's just boy like.

722
00:29:50,480 --> 00:29:53,080
Speaker 3: If you find a team that the values really inflated,

723
00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:55,880
Speaker 3: then even if you like them, fading them is okay.

724
00:29:56,320 --> 00:29:58,040
Speaker 2: I will mention on San Francio they've had a lot

725
00:29:58,040 --> 00:30:00,320
Speaker 2: of really close non covers. I think they're cover margins

726
00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:02,360
Speaker 2: actually pretty close to zero. And you look at their

727
00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:04,760
Speaker 2: analytic they started off at thirty fourth in KEMPOM. Now

728
00:30:04,760 --> 00:30:06,720
Speaker 2: they're thirty six. I think we'd all agree it is

729
00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:08,640
Speaker 2: probably still a little bit too high, although I guess

730
00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:10,560
Speaker 2: I don't know. They've had some pretty damn good efforts that.

731
00:30:11,880 --> 00:30:14,320
Speaker 4: They have a plus zero point three cover margin. That's

732
00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:15,200
Speaker 4: five and twelve.

733
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:18,440
Speaker 2: That's they're backing the Dons like we are. That's just unlucky.

734
00:30:18,520 --> 00:30:20,160
Speaker 2: That's annoying. They hear, actually kind of need to hear.

735
00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:20,400
Speaker 1: That's that.

736
00:30:20,440 --> 00:30:21,959
Speaker 2: I wish you would have holstered that. Yeah, I think

737
00:30:21,960 --> 00:30:23,480
Speaker 2: you see Santa Barba is the one where I'm probably

738
00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:25,560
Speaker 2: looking to fade going forward. I think Winthrope and Drake

739
00:30:25,600 --> 00:30:27,920
Speaker 2: have bounced back potential, but without the guard play of

740
00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:30,040
Speaker 2: McLaughlin Kyie right like the rudder in the back court

741
00:30:30,040 --> 00:30:31,400
Speaker 2: which they had last season, I think they're going to

742
00:30:31,440 --> 00:30:34,240
Speaker 2: really struggle in a Big West play and teams that

743
00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:38,440
Speaker 2: have been shockingly good against the spread despite your perception

744
00:30:38,520 --> 00:30:41,240
Speaker 2: that or maybe not that they are not so great.

745
00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:44,320
Speaker 2: We're going to swack swack land first, all corn State

746
00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:46,239
Speaker 2: as I call them, Prairie View A and M light

747
00:30:46,400 --> 00:30:49,320
Speaker 2: And I'd say that because their current coach is a assistant,

748
00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:52,120
Speaker 2: a long time protege of the Prairie A and M

749
00:30:52,320 --> 00:30:55,480
Speaker 2: machine that's been turning out top tier caliber swack teams

750
00:30:55,560 --> 00:30:57,680
Speaker 2: year and year out. Sure enough, they're basically replicating that

751
00:30:57,760 --> 00:30:58,600
Speaker 2: model again this year.

752
00:30:58,760 --> 00:30:58,920
Speaker 1: Jim.

753
00:30:58,960 --> 00:30:59,640
Speaker 2: They've been awesome.

754
00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:03,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, Alcorn's terrific five and twelve overall, and you're like, oh,

755
00:31:03,040 --> 00:31:04,600
Speaker 3: this team is one of those swack teams. Played a

756
00:31:04,600 --> 00:31:07,600
Speaker 3: tough schedule, but they brought in talent. They took major

757
00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:10,280
Speaker 3: advantage of the one time waiver where you can just

758
00:31:10,320 --> 00:31:12,000
Speaker 3: bring in guys right away and not to have them

759
00:31:12,000 --> 00:31:14,080
Speaker 3: sit out. So they found some talent and the fact

760
00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:16,280
Speaker 3: that they also have a good coach now has made

761
00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:19,240
Speaker 3: them way more competent versus the number than in past

762
00:31:19,280 --> 00:31:20,520
Speaker 3: thirteen and four against.

763
00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:24,280
Speaker 2: The spread, Kai Middle Tennessee, cal and Saint Thomas twelve

764
00:31:24,320 --> 00:31:27,080
Speaker 2: and two, thirteen and five and nine and four against

765
00:31:27,080 --> 00:31:29,760
Speaker 2: the spread respectively. Saint Thomas is a team looking to

766
00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:30,520
Speaker 2: fage going forward.

767
00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:33,920
Speaker 4: All three are surprising. Middle Tennessee has been just bonkers,

768
00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:36,720
Speaker 4: way better than we expected. I am not sure what's

769
00:31:36,720 --> 00:31:38,800
Speaker 4: happening there, to be honest, and I can't even begin

770
00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:40,560
Speaker 4: to break it down. Mcdevit we thought was a good

771
00:31:40,600 --> 00:31:43,680
Speaker 4: coach coming from Ashville. He hadn't proved himself for a while.

772
00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:47,000
Speaker 4: But night now maybe he's on the upswing with no expectations.

773
00:31:47,080 --> 00:31:48,720
Speaker 4: It's just a thing that's happening, I suppose.

774
00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:50,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, they're picked last than the c USA, and their

775
00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:52,920
Speaker 3: fan for him was as depressed as I've ever seen

776
00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:55,360
Speaker 3: a fan for ye And now they're like a money

777
00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:56,080
Speaker 3: making machine.

778
00:31:56,200 --> 00:31:58,120
Speaker 4: Cal I really buy a little bit more MAP because

779
00:31:58,120 --> 00:32:00,000
Speaker 4: I thought they were better analytically than what they say

780
00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:02,360
Speaker 4: started at. They have some talent that roster, Yeah they

781
00:32:02,520 --> 00:32:05,200
Speaker 4: say Thomas though just makes no sense. They're just well

782
00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:06,520
Speaker 4: coached and they shoot the crap out.

783
00:32:06,440 --> 00:32:06,760
Speaker 1: Of the ball.

784
00:32:06,920 --> 00:32:08,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, Well, they make every shot and they have the

785
00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:10,640
Speaker 2: element of surprise. We've talked about before. How I think

786
00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:14,000
Speaker 2: teams going to new conferences have an early advantage. I

787
00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:16,760
Speaker 2: wonder if if we just sort of isolated their second

788
00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:19,280
Speaker 2: games against teams in conference in the summit, maybe they

789
00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:20,960
Speaker 2: don't fare as well if teams far out how to

790
00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:23,040
Speaker 2: defend their three point line, on how to attack their

791
00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:26,040
Speaker 2: lack of perimeter athleticism. All right, quick note on a

792
00:32:26,080 --> 00:32:29,080
Speaker 2: couple of condensed schedules here, two conferences, and feel free

793
00:32:29,120 --> 00:32:30,880
Speaker 2: to pepper in a few more guys if I missed any.

794
00:32:30,920 --> 00:32:33,920
Speaker 2: The MAA Seed, the MAC, and the OVC two teams

795
00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:36,000
Speaker 2: or two leagues that have been hit pretty hard by COVID.

796
00:32:36,360 --> 00:32:38,520
Speaker 2: And this is the start of weeks in which they're

797
00:32:38,520 --> 00:32:41,920
Speaker 2: playing like four and five games in seven days, playing

798
00:32:42,000 --> 00:32:46,760
Speaker 2: on unorthodox nights, not their typical weekly regiment and routine.

799
00:32:46,800 --> 00:32:48,360
Speaker 2: We don't want to go through any examples, but just

800
00:32:48,400 --> 00:32:50,080
Speaker 2: want to say, hey, look out for it. There are

801
00:32:50,200 --> 00:32:53,040
Speaker 2: land mines all throughout the slate, throughout conference play. Be

802
00:32:53,120 --> 00:32:55,360
Speaker 2: sure to keep your nose to the grindstone as you

803
00:32:55,360 --> 00:32:56,120
Speaker 2: look through the schedule.

804
00:32:56,160 --> 00:32:58,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, and the OVC, I don't think it matters as much.

805
00:32:58,240 --> 00:33:00,440
Speaker 4: I think that's truly the haves and the have nots

806
00:33:00,680 --> 00:33:03,560
Speaker 4: a conference play. It's just like bet on the good

807
00:33:03,560 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 4: teams the OBC, fade the bad teams, the MAC over

808
00:33:06,400 --> 00:33:09,680
Speaker 4: the NAAC that's a choose yourn adventure. Who the hell

809
00:33:09,720 --> 00:33:11,440
Speaker 4: knows is going to show up on a nightly basis,

810
00:33:11,600 --> 00:33:13,000
Speaker 4: might just want to avoid betting those.

811
00:33:12,880 --> 00:33:15,320
Speaker 3: Games pretty key, like if a lot. If there's teams

812
00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:18,360
Speaker 3: playing Monday, they're likely playing again Thursday and Saturday, and

813
00:33:18,560 --> 00:33:20,360
Speaker 3: like so there's your four and seven. Like it's there's

814
00:33:20,400 --> 00:33:21,920
Speaker 3: going to be a quite a bit of that.

815
00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:24,120
Speaker 2: Even the ivy's been odd to track this year again

816
00:33:24,200 --> 00:33:26,000
Speaker 2: going off their back to back there they have kind

817
00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:28,160
Speaker 2: of random games and some COVID pauses there too, so

818
00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:30,040
Speaker 2: again just takes a lot more time I think to

819
00:33:30,080 --> 00:33:33,280
Speaker 2: properly handicap the card this year. So keep your eyes open, fellas.

820
00:33:33,280 --> 00:33:35,360
Speaker 2: That wraps it up, folks. Will be back next week

821
00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:37,960
Speaker 2: again every Wednesday. Please remember to rate and review on

822
00:33:38,000 --> 00:33:41,000
Speaker 2: Apple podcast Spotify, and we'll see you next week on

823
00:33:41,080 --> 00:33:41,520
Speaker 2: BBOC