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Speaker 1: On this episode of news World. In five months, we

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Speaker 1: will have finished the election process on Tuesday, November fifth,

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Speaker 1: voting for the next president, eleven governors, thirty four US Senators,

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Speaker 1: four hundred and thirty five House members, and all sorts

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Speaker 1: of state legislators. So what are the key issues voters

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Speaker 1: are considered and at the national level, what states are

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Speaker 1: blue red or could possibly vote you the way? How

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Speaker 1: close is this election going to be? Here to answer

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Speaker 1: all these questions and more, I'm really pleased to welcome

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Speaker 1: my two guests. They are among the most experienced and

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Speaker 1: well known posters in the Democrat and Republican parties. John

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Speaker 1: McLaughlin is the CEO and partner at McLaughlin and Associates,

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Speaker 1: a national survey, research and strategic services company. He has

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Speaker 1: worked professionally as a strategic consultant and pollster for over

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Speaker 1: thirty five years. He's worked as an advisor and polster

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Speaker 1: for President Donald Trump and Doug Sosnik. Doug served as

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Speaker 1: a senior advisor to President Bill Clinton from nineteen ninety

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Speaker 1: four to two thousand, playing a key role in policy, strategy,

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Speaker 1: political and communications decisions in the White House. He has

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Speaker 1: advised multiple US Senators governors, Fortune, one hundred corporations, foundations

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Speaker 1: and universities for thirty five years. John and Doug, welcome

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Speaker 1: and thank you for joining me on Newtsworld.

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Speaker 2: It's a pleasure.

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Speaker 1: I was excited because that's a great opportunity to have

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Speaker 1: two really professional veteran polsters representing both sides of the aisle.

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Speaker 1: We can have just a conversation, and I want to

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Speaker 1: start with we're five months away from the final round

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Speaker 1: of the election in November. How would you describe the

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Speaker 1: state of the race of this moment to someone who

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Speaker 1: isn't paying attention to the daily news cycle in Poland.

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Speaker 1: We'll start with Doug and then we'll go to John.

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Speaker 3: Thank you for having me today. I would say that

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Speaker 3: the race has been pretty stable and static since last November,

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Speaker 3: and that's despite a number of events that have happened

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Speaker 3: around the world and in the United States, Donald Trump

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Speaker 3: has haden say a narrow the durable lead both nationally

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Speaker 3: and in the key battleground states. Essentially, I think you

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Speaker 3: have three groups of people right now. You have the

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Speaker 3: people that love Trump and vote for no matter what,

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Speaker 3: and then you have the people who hate Trump and

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Speaker 3: to vote against them no matter what. And you have

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Speaker 3: the third group that really is not thrilled about either choice,

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Speaker 3: and it's largely stayed starteant tuned out of the election

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Speaker 3: because they don't like their choices. So I think the

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Speaker 3: architecture of our country right now, the political divisions of

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Speaker 3: our country, which you can talk about if you go,

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Speaker 3: which I think based largely on education, has created a

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Speaker 3: narrow divided country that currently is the Trump's narrow advantage.

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Speaker 4: John, how do you assue I'd largely agree with Doug.

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Speaker 4: Actually it's been more stable. It goes back to Biden

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Speaker 4: at some point what I call the surrender of Afghanistan,

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Speaker 4: and it's on our website, on the monthly polls that

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Speaker 4: we published from McLaughlin online dot com. We were never

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Speaker 4: heading the national popular vote for Trump at twenty sixteen.

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Speaker 4: It was always an electoral battleground state play. Same in

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Speaker 4: twenty twenty. It was never when he was trying to

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Speaker 4: get reelected. By the way, there was one point Doug

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Speaker 4: havn't worked for the Clintons. He probably has moments like this.

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Speaker 4: At one point I had flown back from Europe after

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Speaker 4: seeing some clients. They said, you have to be back

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Speaker 4: here for a meeting. You just did around a paulling

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Speaker 4: with Tony for Brizzio and the campaign. You got to

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Speaker 4: come back for an Oval office meeting, and it was

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Speaker 4: March thirteenth and twenty twenty and come back into the

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Speaker 4: office and President Trump gets up from behind the desk.

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Speaker 4: It's Jared brad Parscal, myself, Tony and Brian Jack and others,

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Speaker 4: and he says, I think I have to shut travel

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Speaker 4: down to Europe tonight. I looked at the others and

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Speaker 4: so that's too bad. I was carrying all these Crossday

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Speaker 4: books with polls that said we were going to win.

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Speaker 2: I just chucked them. And from then on it was

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Speaker 2: always we were in a battleground, you know, again, electoral votes.

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Speaker 2: We were losing the national popular vote from that point on,

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Speaker 2: and we were going to win by electoral votes. But

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Speaker 2: this time, at some point in September twenty twenty one,

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Speaker 2: we went ahead in the national popular vote. And as

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Speaker 2: Doug said, it's been fairly stable where there's certain amount

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Speaker 2: of voters who disapprove of Joe Biden and we're skating

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Speaker 2: up among those voters. And because it wasn't just the

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Speaker 2: surrender of Afghanistan and weakness, it was also inflation was

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Speaker 2: triggered at that point, and it became really the most

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Speaker 2: important issue. We've held that steady lead up until like

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Speaker 2: last week we put out national numbers and he's had

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Speaker 2: forty seven forty three percent Trump over by and there

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Speaker 2: hasn't been much change. And you can aggregate the data

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Speaker 2: over periods of time, and the real difference is there

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Speaker 2: is a Biden twenty twenty voter that's now voting for

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump in twenty twenty four. Who is there four

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Speaker 2: or five percent of the electorate. There's another four or

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Speaker 2: five percent that's undecided, But that Biden twenty voter Trump

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Speaker 2: twenty four voter, Derek quarter, Black quarter Hispanic average ages

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Speaker 2: thirty five. They're parts of the Obama coalition coming to Trump,

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Speaker 2: and it's very different.

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Speaker 3: I don't know if I'm adding on what John said

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Speaker 3: or building on it, But if Biden is this, and

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Speaker 3: I think he still has a decent chance of winning.

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Speaker 3: But if Biden ought to lose, I think we would

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Speaker 3: look back at the period that John mentioned in the

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Speaker 3: summer of twenty twenty one and in the fall as

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Speaker 3: the key moment. Trump never had fifty percent job approval

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Speaker 3: for I think a single day and his president Biden

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Speaker 3: had a mid to high fifties job approval until July

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Speaker 3: of twenty twenty one. But it was a confluence of

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Speaker 3: four events, a couple of which John mentioned, that really

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Speaker 3: created Biden going upside down on his numbers and he

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Speaker 3: never recovered. The first was the fourth of July when

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Speaker 3: he did an event on the South Lawn and he

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Speaker 3: declared basically victory over COVID and said by Labor Day

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Speaker 3: we'd be back to normal. Then there's the August withdrawal

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Speaker 3: Afghanistan of the John mentioned, and then, as John mentioned,

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Speaker 3: also in September, it was the first month that we

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Speaker 3: had over six percent inflation. The fourth thing, which is

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Speaker 3: probably a big factor in when drove the inflation was

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Speaker 3: we began by the end of September early October to

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Speaker 3: really start suffering supply chain problems. And so if you

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Speaker 3: look at all the polling of Biden's job approval, you

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Speaker 3: can see that his lines crossed in the summer of

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty one and where his job approval was in

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Speaker 3: early November of twenty twenty one, and his largest stay

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Speaker 3: frozen since then.

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Speaker 1: So what you're describing both of you is a country

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Speaker 1: in which a very large percent, maybe above ninety ninety

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Speaker 1: two percent, have sort of made their mind up and

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Speaker 1: they're not open to the argument. On the other side,

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Speaker 1: I mean, Trump supporters aren't going to listen very much

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Speaker 1: to whatever Biden's people say, and Biden's supporters aren't going

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Speaker 1: to listen very much to whatever Trump's people say. And

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Speaker 1: the question is, if the momentum stays about as it

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Speaker 1: is now, you're going to come down to a fairly

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Speaker 1: narrow election. Does it do both of you expect that?

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Speaker 2: I think that's what the likely expectation is. When you

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Speaker 2: look at the seven states they're following in the two

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Speaker 2: congressional districts Nebraska two and mean two for the Trump campaign,

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Speaker 2: that's a conservative estimate. When you're looking at Georgia, Arizona, Nevada,

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Speaker 2: North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. You're looking at those states

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Speaker 2: and saying, that's where the election is going to be decided,

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Speaker 2: and that's where you can see from the inverse, that's

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Speaker 2: where the Biden campaign and the super PACs are spending money,

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Speaker 2: and that's where He's spending money. But I think the

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Speaker 2: missing element here is it's another historic Trump election. The

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Speaker 2: guy's not a politician, and he does things as a

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Speaker 2: businessman in a lot of respects as an outsider. He

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Speaker 2: beat the establishment to get where he was both the

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Speaker 2: Republican establishment and the Washington establishment when he won in

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Speaker 2: twenty sixteen. But what's really amazing is right now, I

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Speaker 2: looked at last year and said, you know, when Trump

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Speaker 2: was getting indicted, the only crime that Trump had committed

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Speaker 2: was that he was ahead in the pulse, and Biden's

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Speaker 2: strategy was to indict him. Literally, you could trace all

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Speaker 2: these indictments to connections and networks to the Biden Whitehouse.

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Speaker 2: And this year it's about getting him convicted, and a

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Speaker 2: lot of the cases have been slowed down or went

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Speaker 2: the wrong way. But it's historic in that we've never

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Speaker 2: in America seen the incumbent president and his allies indict

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Speaker 2: their leading political opponent with the objective to put him

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Speaker 2: in jail. Donald Trump has gotten stronger as he's gone

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Speaker 2: through this and held that lead, as Doug's talking about,

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Speaker 2: it hasn't diminished. So right now, when we get past

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Speaker 2: that point and then Biden wants to debate him, I

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Speaker 2: think we're seeing an unprecedented, historic election that we're looking at.

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Speaker 3: If what John said was true, I mean this was

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Speaker 3: a command and control effort out of the last winning

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Speaker 3: by the Biden White House over these Trump trials. It

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Speaker 3: will probably be the first evidence we've seen in three

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Speaker 3: and a half years of effective command and control. The

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Speaker 3: second point I'll make is I think it's a little

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Speaker 3: bit higher than that eight percent of the voters, and

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Speaker 3: I think it's probably closer to sixteen eighteen percent. I

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Speaker 3: think that turnout is a wild card this year, Unlike

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Speaker 3: in the past and since that, we had historic turnout

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Speaker 3: in twenty twenty highest percentage of eligible voters in one

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Speaker 3: hundred years. The twenty eighteen mid term was historic, the

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty two is near historic. I'm not sure we're

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Speaker 3: going to have that kind of turnout in twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 3: So I think who votes it's going to be more

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Speaker 3: important than normal. You have sixty one percent or whatever,

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Speaker 3: people don't think that Trump and Biten are both too

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Speaker 3: old to run, twenty percent don't like either one of them,

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Speaker 3: and you do also have the possibility of a turnout

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Speaker 3: for third party. So I think it's going to be

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Speaker 3: a little bit more than just these swing voters. I

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Speaker 3: think turnout's going to matter more than it has in

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Speaker 3: the past several elections.

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Speaker 1: Just ask them if a turnout election turnout will be lower,

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Speaker 1: isn't it more likely that that hurts Biden much more

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Speaker 1: than Trump. That the intensity of the Trump supporters and

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Speaker 1: the degree to which they've already endured all the news

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Speaker 1: media attacks makes it relatively unlikely that they'll stay home.

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Speaker 3: The favor of Republicans right now, and I'm sure John

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Speaker 3: eyer Pole shows that the public poll show it is

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Speaker 3: that there's more energy and enthusiasm right now with Republicans

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Speaker 3: to vote the Democrats. So that's certainly an advantage for Republicans.

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Speaker 3: On the other hand, there was a column last week

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Speaker 3: by Nate co on this. When the three of us

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Speaker 3: started politics, Republicans always did well admit terms, and Democrats

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Speaker 3: did better in presidential because he quote unquote occasional voters

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Speaker 3: voted Democratic. That's now been completely turned on its head

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Speaker 3: with Trump's takeover the Republican Party and making it more

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Speaker 3: of a working class party. So the occasional voters, if

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Speaker 3: they were to vote, is much more to the advantage

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Speaker 3: of Trump than Biden. So I think a lower turnout,

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Speaker 3: which probably skewed towards more educated voters, at least as

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Speaker 3: a percentage with favored Biden.

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Speaker 2: There was a column by a professor Michael McDonald, who

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Speaker 2: runs the US Elections Project, and he called it the

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Speaker 2: Trump's enthusiasm problem. And I think, like, when I take

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Speaker 2: my national polls, we just do likely voters, and that's

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Speaker 2: what we've tracked. If they tell us they not voting,

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Speaker 2: we don't bother them. And it goes back to who

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Speaker 2: comes out is really important. So going back to twenty sixteen,

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Speaker 2: when President Trump said to me, all these poles have

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Speaker 2: Hillary ahead, how are we going to win? I said, well,

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Speaker 2: only one hundred and third million people voted the Romney

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Speaker 2: Obama election, and there's ninety million people that didn't vote

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Speaker 2: that were eligible. And we're going to get out what

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Speaker 2: I called You called them occasional voters, don't I called

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Speaker 2: them casual voters. W would get these casual voters out,

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Speaker 2: who were working class voters in the Sun Belt and

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Speaker 2: Rust Belt states for Trump and the ones that were close.

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Speaker 2: And that's what we did, and we got nine million

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Speaker 2: more voters out nationally and we were able to win it. Now,

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Speaker 2: the babport was in twenty twenty during COVID. David Pluff

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Speaker 2: wrote a great book book for us, a great book

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Speaker 2: for Democrats about a citizen's guide to defeat Donald Trump,

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Speaker 2: and they focused on not just battleground states, they focused

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Speaker 2: on effect battleground counties where they figured out the way

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Speaker 2: to defeat Trump was to register a lot of voters

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Speaker 2: in counties that would have voted for Hillary and then

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Speaker 2: make it easier for them to vote drop boxes, you know,

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Speaker 2: very liberal mail in ballots, etc. Like that. That's what

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Speaker 2: they did. And you had a record turnout of one

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Speaker 2: hundred and sixty million during COVID turning pandemic, and the

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Speaker 2: Democrats did a much better job at that. You know,

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Speaker 2: the Republican campaign was they kept telling us, Oh, there's

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Speaker 2: no signs of the buying ground game. I'm like, yeah,

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Speaker 2: they're all being paid for by nonprofits. And they're focused

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Speaker 2: not just in Georgia. They're focused in Fulton County and Foresight.

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Speaker 2: It's where the Facebook, the Zuckerberg drop boxes were in

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Speaker 2: Philadelphia and Milwaukee and Dane County in Wisconsin, in Maracopa County,

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Speaker 2: and they really dove in, drove up turnout in those

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Speaker 2: counties and flipped the states in a record turnout of

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Speaker 2: an election of one hundred and sixty million, And I

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Speaker 2: agree with Doug. The midterm twenty two the turnout went

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Speaker 2: down compared to twenty eighteen, and that was interesting. Overall,

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Speaker 2: the national vote for Congress, I don't know if it's

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Speaker 2: going to turn and go down from one hundred and

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Speaker 2: sixty million, but one hundred and sixty million is a

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Speaker 2: lot of people to vote. But I do agree with Doug.

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Speaker 2: It's who turns out. And I'm not sure you know

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Speaker 2: the thesis of McDonald and Cohen that better educated voters

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Speaker 2: are going to turn out in higher proportion to working

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Speaker 2: class voters right now, because these working class voters they've

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Speaker 2: felt exploited, they're angry, they want to channel that anger,

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Speaker 2: and they want to make their lives better. And Trump's

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Speaker 2: relying on that coalition, particularly in the three you know,

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Speaker 2: you got Pennsylvania nineteen electoral votes, Bishuham at fifteen, Wisconsin

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Speaker 2: with ten, those three Rost Belt states plus now we have,

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Speaker 2: I mean the Trump campaign we put out like a

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Speaker 2: couple of weeks ago, Minnesota, we're tied with Kennedy on

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Speaker 2: the ballot. You got Trump forty, Biden forty, Kennedy at

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Speaker 2: nine Virginia, which is Posi Sumbelt government state, but it's

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Speaker 2: Trump thirty seven, by and forty and Kennedy was at

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Speaker 2: eight and Kennedy today they said they got enough signatures

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Speaker 2: to get in New York. So you know, I think

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Speaker 2: we're looking at a really historic election where we might

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Speaker 2: still have high turnouts, but it's going to come down

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Speaker 2: to these key battleground states, and that is going to

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Speaker 2: focus on actually in the counties. You know, Arizona's going

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Speaker 2: to be decided by Americopa County, Nevado be decided by

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Speaker 2: Clark Wisconsin, by what goes on in Milwaukee. If you're

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Speaker 2: in one of these battleground states, there's going to be

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Speaker 2: a lot of focus. The only difference is I do

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Speaker 2: like the idea of expanding the map because when I

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Speaker 2: was younger and we were all working for Ronald Reagan

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Speaker 2: and then older, like the lee Atwards School was to

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Speaker 2: play for fifty states and try to campaign nationally. When

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Speaker 2: our friend Carl Rove became Bush's strategy I used to

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Speaker 2: kid Carl, I said, you never do any away games.

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Speaker 2: You only work in the states where you're supposed to win.

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Speaker 2: And for those of us who grew up in New York,

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Speaker 2: grew up in the democratic areas. You took a lot

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Speaker 2: of Democrats to elect Republicans, and that's what we were

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Speaker 2: used to doing.

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Speaker 1: It struck me in sixteen that Hillary was not ahead

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Speaker 1: enough nationally to win the swing states because she was

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Speaker 1: going to carry New York, Illinois, in California by such

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Speaker 1: big margins that if she didn't get further ahead, she

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Speaker 1: would literally would not have any votes left in places

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Speaker 1: like Michigan, et cetera. And it's partly circular. I mean,

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Speaker 1: if we had a popular election campaign, Republicans would have

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Speaker 1: to spend in California, New York, and Illinois and the

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Speaker 1: results would be much closer.

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Speaker 2: The same thing.

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Speaker 3: In twenty twenty, Biden's national margin was less than the

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Speaker 3: margin of his victory in California New York, so he

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Speaker 3: actually take those two states out the other forty eight.

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Speaker 3: Trump got more votes.

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Speaker 1: But now when you get to the so called swing states,

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Speaker 1: some of which were surprised me as a guy who

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Speaker 1: represented Order for twenty years, I frankly did not think

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Speaker 1: we would lose the state. But Times pulled back at

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Speaker 1: the end of April begnion of May, they show Trump

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Speaker 1: up twelve in Nevada, him up ten in Georgia, seven

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Speaker 1: in Michigan, which m Dubius about. But those begin to

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Speaker 1: be the kind of numbers where they're not swing states.

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Speaker 1: Both of you guys have advised campaigns. You understand strategy.

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Speaker 1: Isn't Biden in danger of seeing his map of opportunity

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Speaker 1: shrink to a point where it there's not enough in play.

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Speaker 3: First of all, the Electoral College has favored Republicans the

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Speaker 3: way it votes. The last two Republican presidents elected lost

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Speaker 3: the popular vote. It's six points more favorable now than

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Speaker 3: it was in twenty twenty to reapportionment and redistrictate. And

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Speaker 3: if you look at the current polling, I don't think

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Speaker 3: Biden's behind by those numbers he just said, but he

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Speaker 3: is behind the map, and the options for Trump are

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Speaker 3: a lot better than Biden. I think Biden only has

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Speaker 3: really what I call one and a half options. If

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Speaker 3: you want to say seven swing states include North Carolina.

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Speaker 3: There are three Roust Belt states that are competitive, Pennsylvania, Michigan,

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Speaker 3: and Wisconsin. And they have four Sun Belt states North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona,

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Speaker 3: and Nevada. Now, those four states have traditionally voted more Republican,

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Speaker 3: but they were becoming Democratic because, as we used to

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Speaker 3: say fifteen years ago in the Democratic Party, demography is destiny,

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Speaker 3: which meant that as young people and Hispanics and blacks

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Speaker 3: become a larger part of the population, these states were

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Speaker 3: all going to become Democratic well if anything happened on

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Speaker 3: the way to destiny. Those voters now are becoming more

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Speaker 3: working class voters, and so Biden has lost ground with

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Speaker 3: a number of different groups of voters since the twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty election, but it particularly with young voters and working

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Speaker 3: class blacks and Hispanics, and so because of that, generally

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Speaker 3: less competitive than those Sun Belt states, which means his

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Speaker 3: path to victory now is a narrow path through the Midwest,

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Speaker 3: with those three Midwestern states and carry Nebraska too. Modal

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Speaker 3: to the simple math, if Trump wins North Carolina, which

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Speaker 3: is favorite, in Georgia, which is favored, he's at two

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Speaker 3: hundred and fifty one electoral votes, so he has multiple

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Speaker 3: paths to two seventies, starting with the fact if he

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Speaker 3: carries Pennsylvania, the election's over. So I think Biden's really

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Speaker 3: only has, as I said, one and a half pass.

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Speaker 3: I don't see how he wins the election without winning Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

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Speaker 3: If you want to lose Michigan. His other option is

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Speaker 3: in Arizona and Nevada, which will probably have abortion the

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Speaker 3: ballot initiatives. But that's really I think his two most

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Speaker 3: viable paths. With the Midwestern version overwhelmingly he has a

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Speaker 3: better chance, but Trump, on the other has multiple options

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Speaker 3: to two seventy.

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Speaker 2: I would agree with that we're closer, but you can't

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Speaker 2: take any of these things for granted. And when you're

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Speaker 2: looking at like we said in Georgia, when it comes

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Speaker 2: down to Georgia, the reason why I think we're in

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Speaker 2: better shape is the late speaker there. Ralston got a

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Speaker 2: new voter law passed where if you vote early in person,

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Speaker 2: you vote by absentee, you vote on election day, you

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Speaker 2: got to show ID and Biden denounced them. They got

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Speaker 2: the Major League Baseball All Star Game moved and everything

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Speaker 2: like that. But you know, in twenty twenty two you

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Speaker 2: had honest elections, but the number of writing absentees because

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Speaker 2: the Secretary of State doesn't keep track of dropbox versus

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Speaker 2: writing absentees, but there were a million paper ballots out

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Speaker 2: of the five million, and in the midterms, it dropped

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Speaker 2: to two hundred and fifty thousand, and it's because the

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Speaker 2: drop boxes. You can't have somebody drop up and throwing

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Speaker 2: thirty forty to fifty ballots anymore. They're in government buildings

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Speaker 2: and they're secured and you can throw one. It's kind

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Speaker 2: of like the way they do it in Florida. So

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Speaker 2: Georgia is probably a better shot for us. But still

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Speaker 2: in Pennsylvania got Acts seventy seven, where by the time

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Speaker 2: Oz was up for the midterm election, he was losing

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Speaker 2: by like eight hundred thousand votes on election day because

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Speaker 2: the Democrats had put in a lot of absent dee ballots.

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Speaker 2: To their credit, they did it, and the Republicans waited

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Speaker 2: and they just couldn't make up the difference on election day.

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Speaker 2: And the Democrats still have a superior what they'd call

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Speaker 2: ballot operation. Republicans are still getting out of the mindset

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Speaker 2: of get out the vote on election day or seventy

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Speaker 2: two hour weekend or whatever like that. As you mentioned, Speaker,

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Speaker 2: it starts in September, it goes through October. Most states

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Speaker 2: are voting, and if Republicans, if the Trump voters don't

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Speaker 2: get online the first day of early in person voting

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Speaker 2: if they don't change their mentality about getting their votes

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Speaker 2: in for Donald Trump as soon as possible. The same

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Speaker 2: with Independence the Democrats that believe, you know, we could

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Speaker 2: find out a much closer election day race that comes

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Speaker 2: down to the handful of states that Doug mentioned.

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Speaker 3: Well, they're getting mixed signals though about this starting with

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Speaker 3: your candidate.

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Speaker 1: I think that's true. Although he has sort of begun

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Speaker 1: swinging towards admitting that the election starts in September. I

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Speaker 1: have a hunch their ads are all going to say that.

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Speaker 2: He agreed to an early debate. So we'll say.

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Speaker 1: Mark Alpern put out a map that had Republicans are

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Speaker 1: two sixty six and Democrats are two twenty six, and

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Speaker 1: he had four states in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada still

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Speaker 1: up in the air. But I'm puzzled because he assumed

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Speaker 1: that Michigan would be red. It seems to you that

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Speaker 1: Michigan is legitimately up in the air still, that the

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Speaker 1: margins aren't big enough there for Republicans to relax at all.

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Speaker 1: Am I missing something about that?

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Speaker 2: I don't think so. The Real Clear Politics averages forty

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Speaker 2: seven to forty six in Michigan. It's still close. And

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Speaker 2: what's interesting is that's why Biden when you think about it,

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Speaker 2: and Doug would know better than I do, because I

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Speaker 2: I just only know what's going on with the Democrats

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Speaker 2: from what I observe. But they're still focused on Israel

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Speaker 2: and they're waffling around because of the Arab vote. You know,

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Speaker 2: Arab Americans they vote in Michigan. You know, you can

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Speaker 2: see the number of people that spoil ballots in the

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Speaker 2: Democrat primary. Now you've got resheeted to leave saying that

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Speaker 2: Biden's going to have to make some changes. So it's

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Speaker 2: a battle within the Democrat base that could put Michigan

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Speaker 2: up for grabs. Plus what's going on with electric vehicles.

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Speaker 2: The auto manufacturing industry psychologically is a big deal in Michigan.

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Speaker 2: And you know, when you're talking about mandating electric vehicles,

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Speaker 2: you're talking about sending a lot of jobs out of

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Speaker 2: the country. And it's not just the United Auto Workers,

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Speaker 2: but Ford and GM are not taught about building new

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Speaker 2: plants in Michigan. They're talking about building new plants in Mexico.

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Speaker 3: There's one other problem providing in Michigan, which is if

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Speaker 3: you look at the swing state polling and look at

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Speaker 3: the economic conditions in the state and the mood of

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Speaker 3: the people. It's more negative in Michigan than it is

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Speaker 3: in any of the other swing states. In fact, Wisconsin's

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Speaker 3: the most positive, which is why Biden has been doing

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Speaker 3: the best there. Michigan was, prior to the conflict in Gaza,

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Speaker 3: was considered the most democratic of all those states. They

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Speaker 3: had three elections cycles in a row of Democrats running

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Speaker 3: the table. They took control of the governorship and the

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Speaker 3: state legislature in twenty twenty two for the first time

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Speaker 3: since the mid nineteen eighties. So this is more than

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Speaker 3: a speed bump for Democrats. What's going on in Michigan

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Speaker 3: right now. They're three hundred thousand Arabs in Michigan and

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00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:38,000
Speaker 3: there were one hundred thousand Jews in a Michigan. So

434
00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:41,879
Speaker 3: it's made it much more difficult for Biden. It's close

435
00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:44,440
Speaker 3: to a dead heat in Michigan. But as I've said earlier,

436
00:24:44,760 --> 00:24:48,960
Speaker 3: the elections close trumps largely maintained both nationally and the

437
00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:52,320
Speaker 3: swing states, a small but durable lead in these states

438
00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:53,840
Speaker 3: well within the marginal era.

439
00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:55,680
Speaker 2: That's sort of the case in Michigan.

440
00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:14,560
Speaker 1: Given all this, what do you think the dynamic will

441
00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:17,080
Speaker 1: be of Robert F. Kennedy Junior.

442
00:25:18,160 --> 00:25:21,040
Speaker 3: Well, I'd apparently have a different view than President Trump,

443
00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:27,040
Speaker 3: because my view is that all these minor party candidates

444
00:25:27,119 --> 00:25:31,440
Speaker 3: heard Biden more than Trump, and that I don't see.

445
00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:35,920
Speaker 3: As John has pointed out, Trump's favorability and other numbers

446
00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:38,800
Speaker 3: have gone up in the last eighteen months, but I

447
00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:41,320
Speaker 3: don't see him ever getting the fifty percent. And I

448
00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:44,800
Speaker 3: think that where he can get to forty six, forty seventy,

449
00:25:44,760 --> 00:25:48,040
Speaker 3: and forty eight percent is a lot more attractive in

450
00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:50,040
Speaker 3: a multi candidate race than it is in a two

451
00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:55,679
Speaker 3: person race. So I believe ultimately, certainly Stein and all

452
00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:57,199
Speaker 3: the rest of them are going to hurt Biden more

453
00:25:57,240 --> 00:26:01,200
Speaker 3: than Trump. You take Michigan in twenty six, Team Trump

454
00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:03,440
Speaker 3: won by ten thousand votes roughly, and there are two

455
00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:06,480
Speaker 3: hundred and seventy five thousand, third, fourth and fifth party

456
00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:08,879
Speaker 3: voters in those states. They would have voted overwhelbling for

457
00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:11,359
Speaker 3: Hillary in a two person race. So I think it's

458
00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:14,200
Speaker 3: ultimately is going to hurt Biden more than Trump. Now, Trump,

459
00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:16,760
Speaker 3: on the other hand, has spent a lot of time

460
00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:19,920
Speaker 3: going after Kennedy in the last couple of weeks. You guys,

461
00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:24,080
Speaker 3: apparently and your polling have different information than what I think.

462
00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:26,280
Speaker 2: I agree with you on this.

463
00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:27,879
Speaker 4: That Robert Kenny.

464
00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:29,280
Speaker 2: I don't know him person I don't know if you

465
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:31,680
Speaker 2: know him personally. But I live on the poor side

466
00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:33,840
Speaker 2: of the Hudson River. He's on the rich side, or

467
00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:36,120
Speaker 2: at least I saw a story in the New York

468
00:26:36,160 --> 00:26:38,840
Speaker 2: Post that said he has an address over there.

469
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:42,080
Speaker 1: I just have to say, I know you own up.

470
00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:44,280
Speaker 1: The idea that you are on the poor side of

471
00:26:44,320 --> 00:26:47,800
Speaker 1: the Hudson would be seen in most of America as

472
00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:48,800
Speaker 1: doing okay.

473
00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:51,960
Speaker 2: Well, the way New Yorkers look at it, that's like

474
00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:54,600
Speaker 2: the rest of America. I might as well be in Ohio,

475
00:26:55,880 --> 00:26:59,200
Speaker 2: so but it's still He's a Westchester he's a Kennedy Liberal.

476
00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:01,040
Speaker 2: We don't have frack in New York. They have it

477
00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:03,440
Speaker 2: in Pennsylvania, but we don't have it in New York

478
00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:06,280
Speaker 2: because a Robert F. Kennedy. He's an environmental lawyer. He's

479
00:27:06,280 --> 00:27:10,160
Speaker 2: for higher energy costs, he's for big tax increases. He's

480
00:27:10,200 --> 00:27:14,639
Speaker 2: definitely soft on immigration, he's soft on crime. And the

481
00:27:14,720 --> 00:27:17,200
Speaker 2: minute he was talking about getting in you know, you

482
00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:19,840
Speaker 2: go to the rowd. F Kennedy Fund, and all his

483
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:23,200
Speaker 2: family members are on it, and Barack Obama's on there

484
00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:25,920
Speaker 2: as an advisor. Joe Biden's on there as advisor, Cheryl

485
00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:29,360
Speaker 2: Hines his wife's on their advisor, but he's not on it.

486
00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:31,240
Speaker 2: He took him down. I always thought he was a

487
00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:32,040
Speaker 2: trojan horse.

488
00:27:32,280 --> 00:27:33,639
Speaker 3: Well, is Trump been going after him?

489
00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:36,760
Speaker 2: He's a liberal. It's an honest debate. He'll tell you

490
00:27:36,800 --> 00:27:39,320
Speaker 2: he likes it personally, but it's an honest debate to say,

491
00:27:39,960 --> 00:27:42,160
Speaker 2: you know, he's a liberal. And some of these mavericks,

492
00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:44,000
Speaker 2: some Trump people, are like, oh, you should take him

493
00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:47,199
Speaker 2: for VP. I'm like, you got to be kidding. It's like, no,

494
00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:49,760
Speaker 2: it's not happening. But anyway, he's a factor. And by

495
00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:52,000
Speaker 2: the way, those one hundred and forty five thousand signatures

496
00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:54,359
Speaker 2: he put it in New York are hundred thirty five thousand.

497
00:27:54,600 --> 00:27:58,680
Speaker 2: He's forty five. It won't be Trump people challenging those signatures.

498
00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:01,240
Speaker 2: And the story is about him having a parasite in

499
00:28:01,280 --> 00:28:04,480
Speaker 2: his brain or not really having an address in Westchester.

500
00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:08,120
Speaker 2: They didn't come from the Trump campaign, so we'll see.

501
00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:10,320
Speaker 2: But I agree with Doug. The bottom line is, I

502
00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:12,919
Speaker 2: agree with you. These third party candidates that are, you know,

503
00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:17,480
Speaker 2: Cornell west Stein, even the guy that they're putting up,

504
00:28:17,520 --> 00:28:20,560
Speaker 2: this guy Chase Oliver from the Libertarian Party. He's for

505
00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:24,320
Speaker 2: puberty blockers and open borders. It's a left of center guy.

506
00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:26,920
Speaker 2: He's not a right of center libertary. He's a left

507
00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:27,919
Speaker 2: of center libertary.

508
00:28:28,760 --> 00:28:32,640
Speaker 1: Given that kind of turmoil, and given they're currently still

509
00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:34,879
Speaker 1: a narrow race, what do you think is the impact

510
00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:36,919
Speaker 1: on the center races.

511
00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:37,680
Speaker 2: Doug, I'll let you lead.

512
00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:44,080
Speaker 3: Assuming that Republicans take West Virginia, they really just need

513
00:28:45,040 --> 00:28:47,680
Speaker 3: one more state to take control of the Senate. I

514
00:28:47,720 --> 00:28:50,760
Speaker 3: think the two places that Democrats are most vulnerable to

515
00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:54,800
Speaker 3: the top of the ticket. I was in Montana in Ohio,

516
00:28:54,800 --> 00:28:57,520
Speaker 3: and Montana Trump did and will probably carried by twenty

517
00:28:57,520 --> 00:29:01,480
Speaker 3: points or more. And in Ohio won by eight percent

518
00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:03,800
Speaker 3: and sixteen and twenty, which was the best of any

519
00:29:03,840 --> 00:29:08,280
Speaker 3: Republican margin in Ohio as it's Bush, so there is

520
00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:10,640
Speaker 3: a limit. I mean, they're both Tester and Brown and

521
00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:14,640
Speaker 3: those two states are exceptional politicians, but at some point

522
00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:17,480
Speaker 3: it gets really difficult no matter how good a politician

523
00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:20,600
Speaker 3: you are, if you have that kind of headwind at

524
00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:21,800
Speaker 3: the top of the ticket.

525
00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:26,600
Speaker 2: The Matt favors Republicans for the Senate. Out of the

526
00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:30,239
Speaker 2: thirty three seats, there's twenty two Democrats up, and some

527
00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:32,400
Speaker 2: of them like West Virginia, it's really hard for the

528
00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:35,880
Speaker 2: Republicans to lose. But the Democrats keep hitting their opponents

529
00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:39,760
Speaker 2: as maga Republicans, So it doesn't work to hit your

530
00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:42,520
Speaker 2: opponent as a maga Trump Republican if Trump's going to

531
00:29:42,560 --> 00:29:46,280
Speaker 2: win Montana, or win Ohio and even Nevada. I mean,

532
00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:50,560
Speaker 2: Jackie Rosen's attacking Sam Brown, the Republican for being for

533
00:29:50,640 --> 00:29:53,920
Speaker 2: Yucca Mountain that he's radioactive on that issue. So when

534
00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:56,080
Speaker 2: the Democrats go on offense like that, it looks good

535
00:29:56,080 --> 00:29:58,560
Speaker 2: for us to take the Senate. I think a lot

536
00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:00,280
Speaker 2: of the published polls to have a say head in

537
00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:02,479
Speaker 2: the generic battle for Congress, but we won the popular

538
00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:05,000
Speaker 2: vote for Congress last time, but it was only a

539
00:30:05,040 --> 00:30:08,760
Speaker 2: five seed victory. The Senate is more definable, as those

540
00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:11,000
Speaker 2: races can break apart too. If the Democrats have been

541
00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:14,840
Speaker 2: on offense about in Arizona against Kerry Lake because they're freight,

542
00:30:14,920 --> 00:30:17,600
Speaker 2: she'll marry up to Trump's numbers and be able to

543
00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:20,200
Speaker 2: win that seat. So they got cent them out of

544
00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:22,720
Speaker 2: the race, and you got Gego in there, who's pretty

545
00:30:22,760 --> 00:30:25,360
Speaker 2: left of center, but they're playing on our offensive, going

546
00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:28,320
Speaker 2: after carry Lake instead of running on a Democratic agenda.

547
00:30:28,440 --> 00:30:31,200
Speaker 2: I think the Senate looks good for the Republicans, but

548
00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:33,000
Speaker 2: right now, we've got to make sure that we focus

549
00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:35,920
Speaker 2: every day between now and November fifth, I'm getting votes

550
00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:38,720
Speaker 2: out for Trump and keeping that vote because, as you

551
00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:41,400
Speaker 2: and Doug have said, this could be extremely close with

552
00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:43,160
Speaker 2: the electoral College ballots.

553
00:30:43,520 --> 00:30:45,560
Speaker 1: The other thing is, in the last survey we did,

554
00:30:46,120 --> 00:30:48,880
Speaker 1: I think the Republican generic for the House was up five,

555
00:30:50,120 --> 00:30:53,160
Speaker 1: which I think bow's pretty well if it remains true.

556
00:30:53,720 --> 00:30:56,720
Speaker 3: If that is the case, that's totally right.

557
00:30:56,880 --> 00:30:57,880
Speaker 2: It does very well.

558
00:30:58,080 --> 00:31:01,479
Speaker 3: I haven't seen any polling that has a five point margin.

559
00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:04,000
Speaker 3: I've seeing one or two points, and actually i've seen

560
00:31:04,000 --> 00:31:06,000
Speaker 3: it there or it was three or four months ago.

561
00:31:06,080 --> 00:31:09,280
Speaker 3: I think it's pretty close. But even by historical standards,

562
00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:12,240
Speaker 3: even if say it's a one point plus one for Republicans,

563
00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:14,520
Speaker 3: that's a lot better than it's been historically.

564
00:31:14,920 --> 00:31:19,080
Speaker 1: Again, it's because of the way reportionately worked over the years.

565
00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:22,880
Speaker 1: Democrats need a two or three point lead on the

566
00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:26,240
Speaker 1: generic to be a break even I want to thank

567
00:31:26,280 --> 00:31:29,320
Speaker 1: both of you. I think Johnny Doug, this has been

568
00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:32,600
Speaker 1: a terrific conversation. You are two of the best in

569
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:35,520
Speaker 1: the business, and I think being able to sort of

570
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:39,760
Speaker 1: explore it together on a bipartisan basis is really helpful

571
00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:42,680
Speaker 1: to the American people. So we're going to continue to

572
00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:44,880
Speaker 1: have links to the latest polls on our show page.

573
00:31:45,280 --> 00:31:47,240
Speaker 1: And I want to thank the two of you because

574
00:31:47,280 --> 00:31:50,600
Speaker 1: you are great examples of what it takes for a

575
00:31:50,640 --> 00:31:54,000
Speaker 1: free society to operate. So thank you both very much.

576
00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:57,720
Speaker 2: Thank you guys, Thank you gentlemen, Thank you, Miss the Speaker,

577
00:31:58,040 --> 00:31:58,560
Speaker 2: Thanks Dog.

578
00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:04,640
Speaker 1: Thank you to my guest John McLachlan and Doug Soznak.

579
00:32:04,920 --> 00:32:06,680
Speaker 1: You can learn more about the state of the election

580
00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:10,200
Speaker 1: on our show page at newsworld dot com. Newsworld is

581
00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:14,480
Speaker 1: produced by Gingrid three sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive producer

582
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:19,400
Speaker 1: is Guernsey Sloan and our researcher is Rachel Peterson. The

583
00:32:19,520 --> 00:32:23,480
Speaker 1: artwork for the show was created by Steve Penley. Special

584
00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:26,280
Speaker 1: thanks to the team at Gingrid three sixty. If you've

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00:32:26,280 --> 00:32:29,400
Speaker 1: been enjoying Newsworld, I hope you'll go to Apple Podcasts

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Speaker 1: and both rate us with five stars and give us

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Speaker 1: a review so others can learn what it's all about.

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Speaker 1: Right now, listeners of newts World can sign up for

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Speaker 1: my three free weekly columns at Gingrich three sixty dot

590
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Speaker 1: com slash newsletter. I'm Newt Gingrich. This is Newtsworld