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Speaker 1: Good luck for the most beautiful game?

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Speaker 2: Do us proud red Hello, they're running a game so smooth,

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Speaker 2: so sweet, splendid sixteen just glorious execution.

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Speaker 1: This, guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent efforts

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Speaker 1: four thousand percent.

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Speaker 3: Of the time. How shut with.

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Speaker 2: That shot with mind, buddy, And that's why you see.

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Speaker 1: Your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 3: Look at his movements. The most dangerous a mountain the planet.

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Speaker 3: Nobody picks them. Shut up.

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Speaker 4: A wall.

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Speaker 2: It's left to the wide eyed drill coiffeus.

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Speaker 1: How old earth that happens?

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Speaker 4: Helluri one and welcome back to Wondergal Soccer betting podcast

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Speaker 4: from the Action Network, presented to you by bet three

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Speaker 4: six five.

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Speaker 3: My name is Michael Leebuff and joining me is DJ Cunningham.

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Speaker 4: Sam is stuck in Croatia without power, so he won't

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Speaker 4: be joining us in this episode we wish of the best.

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Speaker 3: Sounds like a pretty crazy situation there if.

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Speaker 1: You're gonna be stuck somewhere though, without power, I think

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Speaker 1: Croatia is a pretty good place to be stuck.

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Speaker 3: Right, Yeah, that's right there. That's not a bad spot.

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Speaker 4: It is one hundred and four degrees there apparently, so

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Speaker 4: that's luck to Sam. I would not do well in

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Speaker 4: that heat, you know, sir, But b J and I

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Speaker 4: will we will man the ship for this short episode.

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Speaker 4: We're going to go over the first four matches of

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Speaker 4: the third round.

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Speaker 3: Of the group stage.

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Speaker 4: We'll get into some best bets and obviously talk about

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Speaker 4: clinchic scenarios all that in the conversation. But before we

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Speaker 4: do that, just a reminder that one er goal is

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Speaker 4: proudly presented by Bet three six five and Bet three

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Speaker 4: Check out the boost and see why it's never ordinary

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Speaker 4: at Bettery six five. You must be twenty one older

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Speaker 4: and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, New Jersey,

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Speaker 4: North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia. We're eighteen and older in Kentucky

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Speaker 4: and if you or anyone you know has a gambling

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Speaker 4: problem wants health. He's called one hundred gambler or one

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Speaker 4: in one hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions and

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Speaker 4: restrictions apply.

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Speaker 3: Okay, we'll start with the Group A.

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Speaker 4: The third matches for the group's age for Group A

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Speaker 4: take place on Sunday at three pm Eastern time. We'll

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Speaker 4: start with Scotland and Hungary. Before we do just a

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Speaker 4: quick overview on the clinching scenarios. Germany has already qualified

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Speaker 4: for the Round of sixteen. They win the group with

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Speaker 4: a draw anything but a loss against Switzerland. Switzerland advances

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Speaker 4: with a point, and then some other for some other stuff,

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Speaker 4: but we won't get into that.

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Speaker 3: But a point gets them through automatically.

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Speaker 4: They can also get through with anything but a win

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Speaker 4: from Scotland. Scotland can advance UH with a win, and

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Speaker 4: Hungary can advance with a win. The only way Hungary

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Speaker 4: can advance is with a win over Scotland, so in

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Speaker 4: other words, it's a must win game for both Scotland

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Speaker 4: and Hungary. For Switzerland and Germany, a point would suit

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Speaker 4: their needs. But we'll start with the what should be

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Speaker 4: a fun one between Scotland and Hungary Scotland is a

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Speaker 4: slight underdog of the three way line these odds. Of course,

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Speaker 4: we're from bettery sixty five there plus one sixty Hungary

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Speaker 4: coming back plus one forty five the draws.

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Speaker 3: Plus two eighty. I was pretty impressed with how Scotland

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Speaker 3: bounced back.

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Speaker 4: That was my favorite bet for the in that episode

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Speaker 4: we did covering the first half of group stage round two.

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Speaker 4: I was still pleased with it. Even though they didn't

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Speaker 4: get across the line with a win. That said, that

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Speaker 4: matchup to me, suit suited them much more. I think

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Speaker 4: that this one, which is, you know, they kind of

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Speaker 4: knew what to expect from.

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Speaker 3: Switzerland.

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Speaker 4: I don't really know what to expect for this hungry side,

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Speaker 4: where thoughts started well against Germany and then tapered off

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Speaker 4: a bit. I think you have a pretty good angle

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Speaker 4: here and one that I think I'm going to follow

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Speaker 4: you on.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So you know, if let's just say this match,

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Speaker 1: didn't know it wasn't a must win for both of them.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's a straight pick them, so it would

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Speaker 1: be generally low scoring. So the draw would be probably

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Speaker 1: closer to like plus two ten plus two to twenty

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Speaker 1: in that range, because that's typically what we see from

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Speaker 1: two low scoring teams in a pick them type match,

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Speaker 1: and you know, any league you really want to pick out.

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Speaker 1: So now we're getting a draw close to three to one.

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Speaker 1: Because of the scenario mentioned, both teams have to win.

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Speaker 1: So I think playing against that actually works out here

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Speaker 1: because these two teams, in my mind and both of

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Speaker 1: my power ratings as well, are very very even. And

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Speaker 1: if you think about this scenario of how this match

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Speaker 1: is going to play out, yes it's going to be

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Speaker 1: very chaotic, Yes it's going to be very back and forth.

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Speaker 1: But the second a team goes ahead, the other one's

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Speaker 1: just going to sit in a low block and just

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Speaker 1: try to defend for their lot and try to get

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Speaker 1: out of here with three points, which puts the onus

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Speaker 1: on the other team, and then they will have the chances,

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Speaker 1: and then you have a chance. Obviously gets to a

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Speaker 1: draw scenario and then you know they can get back

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Speaker 1: to a little bit more of back and forth. But

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Speaker 1: with these two teams being so incredibly even playing the

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Speaker 1: exact same style as the other one. You know, the

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Speaker 1: thing about Hungary that's kind of troublesome sometimes is that

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Speaker 1: I mentioned this before, but if you get them into

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Speaker 1: a negative game state, they really are not good in

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Speaker 1: that type of scenario. You could kind of say the

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Speaker 1: same for Scotland as well, although I do think Scotland

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Speaker 1: is a lot more physical and a much better pressing

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Speaker 1: team when they are in that negative game state as

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Speaker 1: opposed to Hungary, which I know sounds crazy, even though

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Speaker 1: they you know, got lost five to one in Germany,

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Speaker 1: but that was kind of a little bit of a

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Speaker 1: different scenario. So, yes, this match probably is going to

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Speaker 1: be very back and forth, and the odds definitely reflect

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Speaker 1: that with the total and the draw here. But getting

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Speaker 1: the draw close three to one, I think is it's

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Speaker 1: just an overreaction to the scenario that we're in playing

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Speaker 1: against that typically provides a lot of value. Like I

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Speaker 1: have the draw. I typically don't project much value on

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Speaker 1: draws like in general, but I have the draw projected

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Speaker 1: at plus two sixty here, So getting a draw three

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Speaker 1: to one I think has some value.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm with you, and that's it's just a good

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Speaker 4: point to keep in mind for these episodes, and I'll

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Speaker 4: keep saying it for We're going to do it the

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Speaker 4: next batch of these final group stage matches, where we're

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Speaker 4: going to record that one on Monday, and you'll hear

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Speaker 4: me say it over and over again on those episodes,

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Speaker 4: which is it's important to note the scenarios, but it's

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Speaker 4: also important to just remember that the market's going to

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Speaker 4: always overreact at at and you'll always pay a premium

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Speaker 4: to bet betting into them. So I think the draw

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Speaker 4: here is a good idea because, like you said, this

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Speaker 4: is these are two even we matched teams. I think

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Speaker 4: if this was group stage match one, the draw would

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Speaker 4: be pretty popular bet as.

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Speaker 1: Far as total would be a lot lower as well.

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Speaker 3: Exactly. Yeah, so.

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Speaker 4: Okay, we'll start that. We so we started off with

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Speaker 4: a draw as our favorite plane in Hungary in Scotland.

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Speaker 4: Let's move to Switzerland and Germany. As I said, a

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Speaker 4: draw for Germany, anything but a loss for Germany wins

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Speaker 4: them the group. Anything but a loss for Switzerland automatically

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Speaker 4: qualifies them. Switzerland is a four to one underdog here.

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Speaker 4: Germany is odds on minus one forty three on the

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Speaker 4: three way line, and the draw is plus two seventy five.

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Speaker 4: This one's a little trickier. I do think that Switzerland

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Speaker 4: is live here. Germany's been really good. I get that,

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Speaker 4: but it does feel like this one's a little bit

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Speaker 4: of an overreaction. I think we could see maybe some

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Speaker 4: squad rotation from Germany. Don't want to win the group,

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Speaker 4: of course, but I just this is probably the time

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Speaker 4: to do it if you want to keep everyone fresh.

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Speaker 4: So when it shocked me there, I wish I got

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Speaker 4: a little bit of a bigger number to bet Switzerland,

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Speaker 4: but yeah, I would lean that way.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's tough. So I have Germany projected at

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Speaker 1: minus one sixty here, So I mean you could say, yes,

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Speaker 1: there's a little bit of value on Germany, and you

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Speaker 1: could also make the argument that they're winning and they

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Speaker 1: want to keep that winning going, keep the positive momentum going.

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Speaker 1: It's only a three match you know, it's only a

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Speaker 1: six or seven match tournament if they make it to

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Speaker 1: the final, So you know, you can make the argument like,

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Speaker 1: let's just go all an, lets win the group, let's

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Speaker 1: keep it all going forward. I think this is a

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Speaker 1: great match, Michael, to sit back and evaluate a team

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Speaker 1: like Switzerland because throughout all of qualifying and now even

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Speaker 1: through their first two matches in the group stage, they

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Speaker 1: have primarily been the team that's the onus has been

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Speaker 1: on them to control possession, them's ones to break down

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Speaker 1: low block. Now they're going to be in scenario where

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Speaker 1: they are the underdogs for the first time in a

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Speaker 1: really really long time, so evaluating them against a team

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Speaker 1: like Germany because they're going to face the second place

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Speaker 1: team in Group B in the Round of sixteen, which

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Speaker 1: could be Italy or it could be Croatia, even Albania

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Speaker 1: for that matter. But seeing how they match up against

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Speaker 1: a team like Germany here if they finish second, I

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Speaker 1: think is a good evaluation point for how they could

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Speaker 1: fare against Croatia or Italy. So for me, I kind

191
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Speaker 1: of want to just sit back and watch and see

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Speaker 1: how Switzerland sets up, see how they're playing. Maybe a

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Speaker 1: potential to get in on them live during the match

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Speaker 1: as it's going on, if Germany does rotate that squad.

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Speaker 1: But for me, I think this is a I think

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Speaker 1: this is a pass and just just wait and kind

197
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Speaker 1: of see what happens and then kind of evaluate these

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Speaker 1: teams for their Round of sixteen matchups.

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Speaker 4: Okay, that brings us to Group B in and this

200
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Speaker 4: one is really really well poised to be chaotic. Spain

201
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Speaker 4: won the group so that's done in dust it. Italy

202
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Speaker 4: finishes as a runner up if they avoid defeat against Croatia.

203
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Speaker 4: They can't finish runner up with a loss, so they'd

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Speaker 4: have to advance as a third place team. If they

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Speaker 4: lose to Croatia and Albania loses or draws against Spain,

206
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Speaker 4: they lose in Albania pulls the upset, Italy's gone. It's

207
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Speaker 4: this thing can go to a billion distrotuctions. Albania is

208
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Speaker 4: in a must win spot, Croatia is in a must

209
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Speaker 4: win spot. They have to go for it here, which

210
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Speaker 4: really sets us up for some fun matches. Now, let's

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Speaker 4: start with the Albania Spain match, because this one, I mean,

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Speaker 4: it's so much fun.

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Speaker 3: So Albania's plus six fifty.

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Speaker 4: I think that that price would be a little bit,

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Speaker 4: maybe not a little bit, a lot bigger if if

216
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Speaker 4: Spain had anything to play for here, but they don't.

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Speaker 4: Spain's minus two forty and the draws plus the three

218
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Speaker 4: seventy five. Like I said, Spain's through like they've got

219
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Speaker 4: nothing to play for here. They're I think they're deep

220
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Speaker 4: enough that like obviously squad rotation, even if they went

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Speaker 4: with their full B team is still much better than Albania.

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Speaker 3: That said, like this looks like a spot where if.

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Speaker 4: You want to have a little bit of fun and

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Speaker 4: you want to bet Albania to do it, not saying

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Speaker 4: that Spain would go full disgrace of Gion on us

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Speaker 4: and and but like this, this is one of these

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Speaker 4: situations which is why we love these tournaments.

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Speaker 3: That like, there's no incentive for Spain to win this match.

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Speaker 4: I think everybody would argue that they would, and of

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Speaker 4: course they would never admit to this themselves, but everyone

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Speaker 4: else in the world, that side of the playing group

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Speaker 4: would say, yeah, you give yourself a better chance to

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Speaker 4: win the tournament at large if Albania wins this match,

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Speaker 4: because you much rather Albania have a chance to go

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Speaker 4: through and knock one of those other two teams out.

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Speaker 4: So we did see this in a little bit in

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Speaker 4: the Cricket World Cup too with England, Australia and Scotland.

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Speaker 4: And I love these situations. There's so much fun you

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Speaker 4: can get. I would say a little it's a little dangerous,

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Speaker 4: like just bet into them. But just there's no way

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Speaker 4: I would consider back in Spain here considering the situation.

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Speaker 4: So I'm gonna do it. I'm just gonna ride with it.

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Speaker 4: You know, maybe it's not the most plus ev bet ever,

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Speaker 4: but it would be fun. Monday afternoon kickoff. Good way

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Speaker 4: to stend up Monday, good way to kick off your week,

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Speaker 4: to root for these Albanians to pull the upset against

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Speaker 4: a staying team that has nothing to gain from winning it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so I like both teams to score No. Minus

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Speaker 1: one fifteen. I think what you're you know, I don't

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Speaker 1: think you're gonna see spang go full walls the wall

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Speaker 1: here and you know, try and go. I mean, they'll

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Speaker 1: obviously want to win, keep the positive momentum going, but

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Speaker 1: I don't think they're gonna even let Albania have a

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Speaker 1: sniff of the ball here. Rodery's not going to play,

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Speaker 1: which is which is a big loss. But again, Spain

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Speaker 1: has a great midfielders and guys who can slot in

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Speaker 1: very nicely in his role and it's not really gonna

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Speaker 1: matter that much. But even though Albania created over two

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Speaker 1: expecting goals against Croatia, you still see the limitations of

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Speaker 1: what they have offensively. It's just transition attacks, it's just

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Speaker 1: shots from outside the box. Again, I know they create

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Speaker 1: a lot of chances, but Spain, I think you could

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Speaker 1: make an argument that they were the most impressive team. Now,

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Speaker 1: we still got a couple of matches left to go.

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Speaker 1: We're recording this before most of Friday and Saturday's matches,

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Speaker 1: but I think you can make the argument that Spain

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Speaker 1: was the most impressive team of this round two of

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Speaker 1: the group stage matches with what they did against Italy.

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Speaker 1: What they did was their counterpressing was so so impressive

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Speaker 1: they couldn't even like the Italy couldn't even get out

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Speaker 1: of their own final third for most of the match,

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Speaker 1: and Spain ended up with eleven high turnovers. So I

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Speaker 1: think you're going to see Spain come out and just

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Speaker 1: not even let Albania get out of the final third,

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Speaker 1: control this match from the start. I mean, they had

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Speaker 1: a seventy seven percent field tilt against Italy. What do

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Speaker 1: you think they're going to do against Albania? So I

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Speaker 1: like both team to score at minus one fifteen. I

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Speaker 1: think it's a kind of a really low price for

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Speaker 1: how dominant of possessions Spain's going to have in this

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Speaker 1: match that are vulnerable to balls over the top. But again,

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Speaker 1: I think the Albania offense is still very very limited

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Speaker 1: in their ability to actually put the ball in the

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Speaker 1: back of the net, so I like both team to

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Speaker 1: score at minus one fifteen projected this closure to minus

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Speaker 1: one fifty, so I like the value on it.

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Speaker 4: Okay, we'll wrap up this deviated so with Croatia and

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Speaker 4: Italy Croatia plus two twenty underdogs Italy plus twenty thirty five.

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Speaker 4: The draw here is plus two twenty. This is it's

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Speaker 4: gonna be fun, I think. I mean, both these matches

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Speaker 4: in this group are obviously gonna be fun for different reasons.

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Speaker 4: But Croatia has to win, like they've got to go

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Speaker 4: for it, and Italy needs to avoid defeat.

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Speaker 3: So it sets up for a situation.

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Speaker 4: Where Italy and it's not gonna be in their DNA

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Speaker 4: under Stiletti is like, you're you can't make a big mistake.

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Speaker 3: You got to play a little bit closer to the best.

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Speaker 4: Croatia Meanwhile, they need to go for it, which is

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Speaker 4: not in their really DNA either, So it's these two

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Speaker 4: teams have kind of gotta have this like a internal

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Speaker 4: kind of battle. I guess, I don't know. I think

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Speaker 4: it sets up for a pretty ugly one. Actually, don't

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Speaker 4: hate the nil mill here at all. I think this

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Speaker 4: is going to be you know, heaps and heaps of

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Speaker 4: pressure on both teams of course, but with with Croatia

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Speaker 4: of being the team that needs to kind of push

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Speaker 4: for the win, I just don't think that they have

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Speaker 4: that in their locker. Meanwhile, it also plays into Italy's

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Speaker 4: strength to like catch them maybe sending too many people

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Speaker 4: forward and getting space behind them challenge that transition defense.

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Speaker 3: So like it feels this one feels like.

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Speaker 4: One where one of those classic tournament matches where Croatia,

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Speaker 4: you know, it's they drag this thing nil nil, that

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Speaker 4: like the sixtieth minute and then they they get on

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Speaker 4: the front foot, but it's too late by that point.

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Speaker 3: So I think nine to one on the nil nil's fine.

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Speaker 3: If you want to take some you know.

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Speaker 4: A little bit of a less of a risky way

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Speaker 4: to get there, you can go with the draw, which

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Speaker 4: I also think is interesting at plus two twenty so

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Speaker 4: because if it's if this match is nil nil, also

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Speaker 4: with like twenty minutes left, it behooves Italy just to

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Speaker 4: shut it down. And I know that's once again going

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Speaker 4: against what they're trying to do with their new manager,

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Speaker 4: but I think there's just a lot of ways this

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Speaker 4: thing can get to a scoreless match. I think it

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Speaker 4: would be our first at least right now, they'll know

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Speaker 4: at the tournament.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I am projecting a little bit of value on

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Speaker 1: under two and a half projected closer to two point

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Speaker 1: one goals here, So under two and a half is

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Speaker 1: minus one ten. You're right, is that Italy is playing

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Speaker 1: for a draw here. They are playing to finish and

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Speaker 1: second in this group because obviously they have no chance

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Speaker 1: of getting first place, right, So that's going to put

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Speaker 1: the onus on this Croatia team that yes, I know

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Speaker 1: they scored twice against Albania, but for the first like

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Speaker 1: seventy minutes of the match, they were doing absolutely nothing,

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Speaker 1: like they were well under one expectacle. They weren't creating

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Speaker 1: any chances. They were actually allowing Albania to control the

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Speaker 1: match for large stretches of it. So they were looking horrible.

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Speaker 1: And typically with Croatian these international tournaments, Michael, is just

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Speaker 1: how it happens. They just blitz you for like a

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Speaker 1: couple of minutes, and it's like wait, wait, how they

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Speaker 1: score twice? Like wait, how'd they create all that? Like

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Speaker 1: this happened at the World Cup over and over again,

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Speaker 1: where they would just do absolutely nothing and then boom,

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Speaker 1: it just happens. So with them, and you know, this

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Speaker 1: is kind of just going back to what we've been

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Speaker 1: saying about Croatias that if the onus is on them

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Speaker 1: to break down low blocks, they are pretty inefficient in

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Speaker 1: the final third. It happened, you know, I know they've

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Speaker 1: I mean, it kind of goes against what they've been

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Speaker 1: creating because they have created, you know, close to five

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Speaker 1: expected goals, but they've also been in negative game states

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Speaker 1: for pretty much the entirety of this tournament. So Italy

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Speaker 1: got away with a one nil defeat against Spain. I

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Speaker 1: thought they were horrible. That is going to be the

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Speaker 1: same game plan under Spiletti. The problem with them is

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Speaker 1: is I thought their transition offense would be a lot better,

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Speaker 1: but they couldn't get the ball out of their final third.

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Speaker 1: They were horrible at you know, they kept trying to

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Speaker 1: build out of the back and they just kept turning

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Speaker 1: it over. And at some point I was just like,

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Speaker 1: just send the ball along for my my god, just

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Speaker 1: do it, Like, just play more direct and you can

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Speaker 1: have a lot more success. But they just kept trying

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Speaker 1: to build out of the back. So Croatia is a

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Speaker 1: decent pressing team. They could give them a lot of

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Speaker 1: problems here, But yeah, I would play this more towards

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Speaker 1: a lower event match. I don't hate a look on

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Speaker 1: Croatia either. If you want to play them on the

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Speaker 1: money line, just because of the scenario that Italy is in,

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Speaker 1: I'm not I agree if all else was equal, I

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Speaker 1: agree that Italy should be around the favorite the price

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Speaker 1: as a favorite as they are right now. But if

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Speaker 1: you want to play against that, I think that there

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Speaker 1: is a little bit about on curatious. So I'll be

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Speaker 1: staring at under two and a half at minus one ten.

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Speaker 1: But I also really can't figure out these two teams,

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Speaker 1: so I might just sit back and see what happens.

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Speaker 3: Perfect, all right?

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Speaker 4: If you had to flag one play as your favorite

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Speaker 4: bet for these four matches, what would it be.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm going to go with Albania and Spain, both

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Speaker 1: teams a score no at minus one fifteen. Although Spain's

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Speaker 1: already won the group, they are going to control a

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Speaker 1: lot of possession in this match. In their match against Italy,

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Speaker 1: they had a feel tilt of over seventy seven percent.

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Speaker 1: But what really was impressive about them was their counterpressing

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Speaker 1: When they lost the ball. It's something that they did

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Speaker 1: really well during qualifying. They had the best pass for

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Speaker 1: defensive action. They forced eleven high turnovers against Italy. They

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Speaker 1: are not going to allow Albania to get the ball

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Speaker 1: out of their final third. Even though they've already won

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Speaker 1: the group, they still want to keep the positive momentum going.

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Speaker 1: They still want to play good football. So with Albania

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Speaker 1: being very limited offensively with just transition attacks and shots

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Speaker 1: from outside the box, I think we're going to see

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Speaker 1: a very low event type match in Albania's chances are

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Speaker 1: going to be very limited. So both team to score

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Speaker 1: at minus one fifteen I think is a little too low.

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Speaker 4: Okay, I'm going to take a shot here and just

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Speaker 4: say that I really like that nil nil in Croatian Italy.

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Speaker 4: I think that that match has you know, people are

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Speaker 4: going to betting into the chaos, but I don't think

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Speaker 4: I think it has a pretty good chance of staying

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Speaker 4: in the first year, given what both teams are going

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Speaker 4: to need to do in their strengths needing or their

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Speaker 4: weaknesses being needing to become strengths in order to accomplish

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Speaker 4: that goal. So I like nil nil nine to one

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Speaker 4: Spain versus Italy. I think that's a fun bet, and

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Speaker 4: that'll do it for this episode.

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Speaker 3: We'll be back on.

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Speaker 4: Monday, the other side of the weekend to get you

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Speaker 4: set up for the rest of the third legs of

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Speaker 4: the group stage matches, and then back for the Round

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Speaker 4: of sixteen. BJ and I also covered in Copa America,

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Speaker 4: so we'll be we'll have all that to get through

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Speaker 4: to sort through. Thank you for listening to all These

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Speaker 4: episodes have been a fun start to the Euros. It's

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Speaker 4: been an interesting start to COPA and we've got plenty

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Speaker 4: more to get to, so thank you for listening. Thank

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Speaker 4: you to our sponsors BET three sixty five, and thank

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Speaker 4: you to our producer Dave for the hard work on

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Speaker 4: the back end.

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Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

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