WEBVTT - Day Three, Part Two at the Milken Global Conference

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and

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<v Speaker 1>editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus

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<v Speaker 1>gloom War, Business finance, and tech news. The Bloomberg Business

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<v Speaker 1>Week Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, one of the components of Milkin. It's a

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<v Speaker 2>lot about finance and capital flows and where the money

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<v Speaker 2>is going, but it's also about wellness and health. And

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<v Speaker 2>with that in mind, I want to welcome our next guest.

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<v Speaker 2>Dale Cook is co founder and CEO of the digital

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<v Speaker 2>behavioral health therapy platform. It's called Learn to Live. He

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<v Speaker 2>participated in a panel. There's an app for that, hyper Health,

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<v Speaker 2>So we have a lot to get to Welcome. Welcome,

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<v Speaker 2>Nice to have you here.

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<v Speaker 3>Thanks so much for having me.

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<v Speaker 4>Carol.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's go to the I mean I said to you

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<v Speaker 2>before we got going, I love meditation. I think these

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<v Speaker 2>apps have really helped people access things like that. But

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<v Speaker 2>I also think in terms of I've heard a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of folks finally getting a chance to talk and have

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<v Speaker 2>some therapy online and things that they either couldn't do

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<v Speaker 2>in the past. Tell us about the panel and some

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<v Speaker 2>of the things that came up there is a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of applications out there.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, for sure, there's a lot of opportunity. As we know,

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<v Speaker 3>mental health has not only been a large problem for

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<v Speaker 3>many people globally and in the United States, it's getting

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<v Speaker 3>even more and more challenging, both in terms of people

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<v Speaker 3>suffering and those needing to find different ways to access care. So,

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<v Speaker 3>for example, in the United States, only half of the

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<v Speaker 3>counties in the country have at least one mental health

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<v Speaker 3>care practitioner. So you mentioned talk therapy, and it's great,

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<v Speaker 3>it can be great for any people, but the supply

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<v Speaker 3>of therapists for those who need it is it's very inequitable.

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<v Speaker 2>So we talk about food deserts, yes, like therapist desert exactly.

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<v Speaker 3>That's a great phrase for it. On top of that,

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<v Speaker 3>we also recognize that three out of four people in

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<v Speaker 3>America with a mental health problem do not want to

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<v Speaker 3>seek out traditional therapy, an in person therapist, or use

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<v Speaker 3>teletherapy because of stigma concerns. While it's gotten better, it's

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<v Speaker 3>still an ongoing issue. Access concerns. We just talked about that,

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<v Speaker 3>or cost concerns, and so in the panel, I think

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<v Speaker 3>one of the really great topics was what roles do

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<v Speaker 3>digital health apps play and how do we assess their

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<v Speaker 3>effectiveness their efficacy? And I think that was a key

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<v Speaker 3>component because we talked about, for example, in the mental

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<v Speaker 3>health space, two ways. We look at that as subjective measures.

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<v Speaker 3>So we were talking about meditation before the session, whether

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<v Speaker 3>or not the app you use is clinically validated. It

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<v Speaker 3>may or may not be, but it works for you.

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<v Speaker 3>So that's a subjective measure that's critically important. For example,

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<v Speaker 3>the work that Never Lived does, but in our space,

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<v Speaker 3>it's critically important for us and for our clients because

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<v Speaker 3>they're paying for the service to show the clinical efficacy.

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<v Speaker 3>And so there's a whole body of work that's been

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<v Speaker 3>done really over three decades for many digital apps, even

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<v Speaker 3>the early ones, to show clinical effectiveness, and even more

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<v Speaker 3>important in the mental health.

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<v Speaker 2>Space, dig a little deeper into that. So how do

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<v Speaker 2>you show that. I do think that's really important. And

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<v Speaker 2>I do also do think that there's a situation where

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<v Speaker 2>you're going to understand that there's something more that's needed here, right,

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<v Speaker 2>that's right to be able to identify that that's right.

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<v Speaker 3>And from the time we started nine years ago, my

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<v Speaker 3>co founder's PhD in psychology we recognize that in as

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<v Speaker 3>much as we want to reach people in the most

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<v Speaker 3>efficient and friendly way possible, we needed to show really

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<v Speaker 3>meaningful clinical results. So one of the ways we do

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<v Speaker 3>that is we measure our users, we call them members,

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<v Speaker 3>our members progress with what we call gold standard psychometric assessment.

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<v Speaker 3>So if you've been in for an annual physical, you

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<v Speaker 3>may have taken the PHQ nine for depression as part

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<v Speaker 3>of your annual physical. That's a gold standard, widely accepted

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<v Speaker 3>assessment tool. And so if you're in a depression program

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<v Speaker 3>with Learned to Live, you take that PHG nine at

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<v Speaker 3>the beginning and then at the beginning of each of

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<v Speaker 3>the eight subsequent lessons in the program, and as that

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<v Speaker 3>score drops, we can show improvement. Interesting, but it doesn't

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<v Speaker 3>stop there. So we take that data, we make it public,

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<v Speaker 3>it's reviewed, it's peer reviewed, and then it's published in

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<v Speaker 3>research journals. So that's step two, because it needs to

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<v Speaker 3>really be what we would call unassailable data, unassailable clinical

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<v Speaker 3>effectiveness data that our payer clients, our employer clients, our

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<v Speaker 3>university clients say this is the gold standard, that it's

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<v Speaker 3>been used for decades, and this digital health app can

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<v Speaker 3>be tied to that, and so we're comfortable that the

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<v Speaker 3>improvements we're seeing. The subjective part is important, but the

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<v Speaker 3>actual data, the raw data that we're seeing is really,

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<v Speaker 3>like I said, unassailable. And then in turn, it's driving

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<v Speaker 3>meaningful cost reduction for our clients. So we can attach

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<v Speaker 3>those two together where they say, Okay, it's not just

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<v Speaker 3>a nice to look at app and it's not just

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<v Speaker 3>really high engagement, which we're fortunate to get in the

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<v Speaker 3>communities that use our application. It really works.

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<v Speaker 2>I love the use of data, right, and just really

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<v Speaker 2>tracking it and it's not just kind of casual at all.

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<v Speaker 3>Right, And I think one of the nuances, and we

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<v Speaker 3>talked about this in the session yesterday here not was

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<v Speaker 3>it needs to be very user focused, right, So the

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<v Speaker 3>consumer needs to be able to kind of choose their journey.

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<v Speaker 3>It needs to be very friendly, very easy to navigate.

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<v Speaker 3>But underneath that has to be a very structured clinical

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<v Speaker 3>protocols that really drive the progress.

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<v Speaker 2>So dip Joe or Jane comes in and they want

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<v Speaker 2>to use the platforms, How does it work? What's it cost?

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<v Speaker 2>Give us an idea of logistically how it all work.

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<v Speaker 3>Sure, so one of the ways we think about it,

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<v Speaker 3>So we are very direct, consumer focused in terms of

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<v Speaker 3>how we deliver the app and make sure that you're

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<v Speaker 3>having a great experience on the app and that you're

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<v Speaker 3>progressing with your mental health improvement. But we have organizations

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<v Speaker 3>who are our clients. So, for example, a large Blue

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<v Speaker 3>Cross Blue Shield plan we serve almost thirty three million Americans,

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<v Speaker 3>is what we cover now with our services. And so

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<v Speaker 3>let's say you're a health plan client and you're made

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<v Speaker 3>aware through a communication from a Blue Cross Blue Shield plan.

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<v Speaker 3>When you come onto our site, there's a code that

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<v Speaker 3>you enter. It's very easy and essentially you're what I

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<v Speaker 3>call behind the curtain. There's no cost to you, and

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<v Speaker 3>right away you're presented with an assessment that's optional for

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<v Speaker 3>you to take, and it's a comprehensive assessment. So when

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<v Speaker 3>you take it takes about five minutes. You can see

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<v Speaker 3>how you score clinically across social anxiety and soomnia, substitute

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<v Speaker 3>depression and so on, and the results of that also

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<v Speaker 3>help guide you into the program that we think may

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<v Speaker 3>be best for you. Right but you can override that.

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<v Speaker 3>So if you say I don't want to do that,

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<v Speaker 3>I really am feeling anxious. I just want to go

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<v Speaker 3>into the anxiety program. You have full rain into that

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<v Speaker 3>and then immediately if you want, you can engage with

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<v Speaker 3>one of our clinician coaches that we have on staff

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<v Speaker 3>twenty four to seven. So you don't just need to

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<v Speaker 3>do the app on yourself, on your own and a

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<v Speaker 3>self directed way. You can engage with a clinician anytime

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<v Speaker 3>if you want to do.

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<v Speaker 2>Because I do think that there's nuances right when it

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<v Speaker 2>cots to wellness in a mental wellness, if you will

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<v Speaker 2>a mental well being, what is it cost? So it

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<v Speaker 2>sounds like there's a lot of coverage an acceptance that's.

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<v Speaker 3>Right, So to the individual users, zero cost, right because

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<v Speaker 3>the organization that you're with, your employer, your health plan

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<v Speaker 3>is paying for it.

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<v Speaker 2>But what acceptance has there been in general Corporate America

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<v Speaker 2>or health some of the major health.

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<v Speaker 3>Insurers significant acceptance. So we fifty per you know, it's

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<v Speaker 3>hard to say what the overall penetration is. I can

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<v Speaker 3>tell you that, you know, we've grown to covering over

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<v Speaker 3>thirty three million Americans in a pretty short timeframe, and

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<v Speaker 3>that's a really interesting mix of payers, large scale payers.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, some payers we cover you know, twenty million

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<v Speaker 3>of their you know, membership and then we're fortunate to

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<v Speaker 3>see you know, twenty to thirty to forty percent engagement

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<v Speaker 3>of that population just with learn to Live. And so

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<v Speaker 3>if you consider traditional behavior health, which is one to

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<v Speaker 3>two percent a year for population, and we're doing twenty

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<v Speaker 3>or thirty percent, it gets very exciting for organizations.

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<v Speaker 2>How sticky is it in terms of people who come

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<v Speaker 2>up on the platform and then stay with it?

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<v Speaker 3>It's incredibly sticky. I would say, you know, if we're

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<v Speaker 3>speaking in sort of digital health app terms, roughly thirty

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<v Speaker 3>percent of you So wrong to say, but it's important, right,

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, when we think about reframing mental health into

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<v Speaker 3>a daily mental fitness routine or it needs to be

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<v Speaker 3>sticky and we need to stick with it. And so

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<v Speaker 3>it's been very, very very sticky, very popular. About thirty

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<v Speaker 3>percent of our users who begin with us are still

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<v Speaker 3>interacting with us a year later.

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<v Speaker 2>Your client retention rate is that very high.

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<v Speaker 3>Very high? And certainly we like to think that we

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<v Speaker 3>have an amazing team that learned to Live, but part

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<v Speaker 3>of it is that there's tremendous need.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, what's the demographics? Is there a typical demographic or

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<v Speaker 2>is it all over all over the place?

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<v Speaker 3>You know it's changed over the past nine years, but

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<v Speaker 3>I would say currently there's a few different kind of

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<v Speaker 3>bumps in the Bell curves, if you will. We have

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<v Speaker 3>a really interesting use in sort of the nineteen to

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<v Speaker 3>twenty two age Raine, so we offer our programs thirteen

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<v Speaker 3>and up, and then we have another kind of tip

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<v Speaker 3>of the curve in the early thirties, about late fifties,

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<v Speaker 3>and then interestingly in the seventies and so we've moved

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<v Speaker 3>into Medicare in addition to Medicaid, and we have tremendous

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<v Speaker 3>use among seniors.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm not surprised. I mean, having had elderly parents and

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<v Speaker 2>depression is often you know, you see it and just

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<v Speaker 2>talking with friends that that's pretty common. Privacy issues an

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<v Speaker 2>excellent question.

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<v Speaker 3>So this is where different organizations are highly differentiating in

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<v Speaker 3>the space. And as we know, especially with COVID, there's

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<v Speaker 3>been a proliferation of time health apps, right, and so

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<v Speaker 3>organizations have become much more sophisticated and discerning.

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<v Speaker 2>It's stressful just trying to figure out how to do it.

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<v Speaker 3>It is and it's a highly personal journey, right. So

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<v Speaker 3>for you as a user, you care what happens to

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<v Speaker 3>the data that you're using in an app, it's a

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<v Speaker 3>really big deal. And so for example, learn to Live,

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<v Speaker 3>there's very strict protocols we follow. There's something called High

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<v Speaker 3>Trust Certification, which is kind of a gold standard for

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<v Speaker 3>health plants that you need to meet, Soft two compliance,

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<v Speaker 3>Hippo compliance. All of these are standards that we've met

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<v Speaker 3>years ago.

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<v Speaker 2>But even though the data, as you said, goes to

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<v Speaker 2>research journals and stuff like, all of that is just

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<v Speaker 2>kind of like it's.

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<v Speaker 3>Just that's all masked very yes, and that's with permission,

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<v Speaker 3>So we don't ever publish. We never personally identify any

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<v Speaker 3>of our users, even to our clients. So if you

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<v Speaker 3>had access via a Blue Cross plan, that plan would

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<v Speaker 3>never see your personal idelfiable data.

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<v Speaker 2>Just last question, what are your plans for the future.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, we're going to continue to grow and expand you know,

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<v Speaker 3>there's a massive need for mental health program so that's

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<v Speaker 3>one area we're going to keep adding new programs, and

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<v Speaker 3>two we're continue to find really big ways to integrate

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<v Speaker 3>into other points of the mental health care ecosystem.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, really fascinating, And I feel like I'm a little

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<v Speaker 2>stress because we got to talk a little bit about banks.

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<v Speaker 2>So I'm going to have to shift gears, but stay

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<v Speaker 2>in touch and let me know how things are going.

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<v Speaker 3>As your Carol, Thanks good luck.

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<v Speaker 2>Dale Cookie's co founder and CEO of Learned to Live

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<v Speaker 2>here at Milkin.

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<v Speaker 2>that is true when it comes to aviation and clean technology,

0:10:55.760 --> 0:10:58.040
<v Speaker 2>which is something that's come up a lot here at Milkin.

0:10:58.160 --> 0:11:00.560
<v Speaker 2>So we want to talk about that with our next guest.

0:11:00.559 --> 0:11:03.920
<v Speaker 2>Delighted to bring in about Miftakoff. He's founder and CEO

0:11:04.200 --> 0:11:07.160
<v Speaker 2>of Zerio Avia. They have backing for Bill Gates, break

0:11:07.160 --> 0:11:10.440
<v Speaker 2>Through Energy Ventures and Jeff Bezos Climate Pledge Fund.

0:11:11.160 --> 0:11:13.520
<v Speaker 4>Welcome, Welcome, thank you, thank you. Great to be here.

0:11:13.559 --> 0:11:15.840
<v Speaker 2>I love talking clean technologies, I said to you, and

0:11:15.840 --> 0:11:18.680
<v Speaker 2>I love talking what's going on with aviation. Tell us

0:11:18.679 --> 0:11:19.960
<v Speaker 2>about your company first of all.

0:11:20.080 --> 0:11:22.360
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, so we started a company five years ago, a

0:11:22.360 --> 0:11:25.640
<v Speaker 5>lill more than five years. We have built a technology

0:11:25.640 --> 0:11:29.600
<v Speaker 5>in house. We're flying multiple prototypes already the largest one

0:11:29.640 --> 0:11:32.120
<v Speaker 5>flying in the UK. The company is between West Coast

0:11:32.200 --> 0:11:35.720
<v Speaker 5>US and the UK twenty seedars and we just announced

0:11:35.720 --> 0:11:39.200
<v Speaker 5>with Alaska, one of our launch partners and airline investor,

0:11:39.800 --> 0:11:43.480
<v Speaker 5>a large aircraft development, seventy six seat aircraft. That's serious

0:11:43.520 --> 0:11:47.760
<v Speaker 5>that we're looking to start running on our powertrain later

0:11:47.800 --> 0:11:49.240
<v Speaker 5>this year and flight next year.

0:11:49.559 --> 0:11:51.360
<v Speaker 2>So tell me about your powertrain.

0:11:51.920 --> 0:11:55.400
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, So it's hydrogen electric to hydrogen board the aircraft

0:11:55.880 --> 0:11:58.680
<v Speaker 5>and then converting that to electricity using the fuel cells

0:11:58.920 --> 0:12:01.520
<v Speaker 5>and Electrica Iron's motors.

0:12:01.559 --> 0:12:02.720
<v Speaker 4>All the critical.

0:12:02.280 --> 0:12:04.840
<v Speaker 5>Technology we have in the house, which is important because

0:12:05.160 --> 0:12:08.720
<v Speaker 5>you cannot really use automotive technology. It's very hard to certify,

0:12:08.840 --> 0:12:11.319
<v Speaker 5>so you need to develop everything from scratch your build

0:12:11.360 --> 0:12:12.080
<v Speaker 5>to the whole days.

0:12:12.600 --> 0:12:15.040
<v Speaker 4>So that's what we've done before that.

0:12:15.480 --> 0:12:19.440
<v Speaker 5>Before zero, I did the electric car company and charging

0:12:19.440 --> 0:12:22.720
<v Speaker 5>systems already in sustainable transport, so this was natural.

0:12:22.760 --> 0:12:23.560
<v Speaker 2>I'm sold that.

0:12:23.840 --> 0:12:26.760
<v Speaker 4>I sold that started to think about what's next.

0:12:26.800 --> 0:12:31.079
<v Speaker 5>I'm a pilot myself, so flying helicopters airplanes is personally

0:12:31.120 --> 0:12:34.880
<v Speaker 5>connected to the industry and didn't really started seeing you know,

0:12:34.920 --> 0:12:37.680
<v Speaker 5>people talking about, you know, maybe we should stop flying

0:12:37.840 --> 0:12:40.680
<v Speaker 5>and maybe we should all sit at home, and I

0:12:40.840 --> 0:12:41.679
<v Speaker 5>really didn't like that.

0:12:41.800 --> 0:12:45.439
<v Speaker 2>So so is what we're doing the focus on evs

0:12:45.559 --> 0:12:48.679
<v Speaker 2>in their current state, not the future. In terms of

0:12:48.800 --> 0:12:51.760
<v Speaker 2>alternative fuel, is it hydrogen that really makes the difference?

0:12:51.840 --> 0:12:55.400
<v Speaker 2>And you think that ultimately is what takes over?

0:12:56.679 --> 0:12:58.760
<v Speaker 5>I know it depends on that your book, It depends

0:12:58.800 --> 0:13:01.240
<v Speaker 5>on the type of but you know, we like to

0:13:01.240 --> 0:13:04.440
<v Speaker 5>think that we are unbiased. We're first principles based. Yeah,

0:13:04.520 --> 0:13:06.960
<v Speaker 5>and my previous company was all about batteries.

0:13:07.040 --> 0:13:09.800
<v Speaker 2>I know, is that the answer because that has problems too,

0:13:09.880 --> 0:13:12.320
<v Speaker 2>and you need power to fuel those batteries.

0:13:12.360 --> 0:13:13.199
<v Speaker 4>That's right, that's right.

0:13:13.240 --> 0:13:16.680
<v Speaker 5>But so the secret source from my previous company was

0:13:17.559 --> 0:13:19.960
<v Speaker 5>exactly around that. And I did apparently yesterday on the

0:13:20.000 --> 0:13:21.760
<v Speaker 5>future of mobility and all that. We had a little

0:13:21.760 --> 0:13:25.319
<v Speaker 5>bit of discussion around it, and the key was, yes.

0:13:25.160 --> 0:13:29.520
<v Speaker 4>It requires a lot of new power. But those cars

0:13:29.559 --> 0:13:30.559
<v Speaker 4>typically sit.

0:13:30.880 --> 0:13:32.840
<v Speaker 5>In the parking lot, either at your work or at

0:13:32.880 --> 0:13:35.000
<v Speaker 5>your house for ninety five percent of the time, and

0:13:35.080 --> 0:13:38.240
<v Speaker 5>if they keep kept plugged in, then you can use

0:13:38.280 --> 0:13:41.240
<v Speaker 5>that battery capacity to store all that renewable power. So

0:13:41.600 --> 0:13:44.600
<v Speaker 5>renewable power problem is, you know, sun shines, you have power.

0:13:44.600 --> 0:13:46.840
<v Speaker 5>Sun doesn't shine, you don't have power, right, and everybody

0:13:47.120 --> 0:13:49.720
<v Speaker 5>quotes that as a problem. But if you have storage

0:13:49.760 --> 0:13:52.920
<v Speaker 5>connected batteries connected all the time in these electric vehicles,

0:13:53.120 --> 0:13:55.040
<v Speaker 5>then you can store that power use it later, right,

0:13:55.280 --> 0:13:57.800
<v Speaker 5>So that's why I think will happen in the automotive space.

0:13:57.800 --> 0:13:59.080
<v Speaker 4>So batteries work there.

0:13:59.480 --> 0:14:02.360
<v Speaker 5>The bigger problem there is recycling off all these materials, right,

0:14:02.720 --> 0:14:07.160
<v Speaker 5>because right now you know single digit percentage penetration. You know,

0:14:07.160 --> 0:14:09.240
<v Speaker 5>we have enough materials is not a huge problem. But

0:14:09.360 --> 0:14:11.840
<v Speaker 5>when you have you know, fifty seventy percent of all

0:14:11.920 --> 0:14:15.800
<v Speaker 5>cars being electric as a lot of chart for aviation,

0:14:16.240 --> 0:14:18.920
<v Speaker 5>this is a complete non starter because you know what's

0:14:18.960 --> 0:14:22.960
<v Speaker 5>worked for your Tesla, right, or for my wife's Desla,

0:14:23.000 --> 0:14:26.440
<v Speaker 5>because I don't have a car anymore, which is you know,

0:14:26.480 --> 0:14:29.320
<v Speaker 5>a thousand cycles on the on the battery, that's three

0:14:29.360 --> 0:14:31.800
<v Speaker 5>hundred thousand miles. You ver will drive three hundred thousand

0:14:31.840 --> 0:14:35.720
<v Speaker 5>miles in your car. But in a commercial aircraft you

0:14:35.800 --> 0:14:37.400
<v Speaker 5>go through that battery in six.

0:14:37.240 --> 0:14:39.080
<v Speaker 2>Months, right, like what kind of size the mattery?

0:14:39.200 --> 0:14:42.200
<v Speaker 5>Right, and then your replace, replace, replace, So material problem

0:14:42.280 --> 0:14:44.840
<v Speaker 5>is huge, and even before that it wasths too much.

0:14:44.920 --> 0:14:45.520
<v Speaker 4>It doesn't work.

0:14:45.560 --> 0:14:48.480
<v Speaker 5>Hydrogen is the only way to do large commercial aircraft

0:14:48.480 --> 0:14:49.480
<v Speaker 5>over long distances.

0:14:49.640 --> 0:14:52.200
<v Speaker 2>But what about some of the concerns and problems with hydrogen.

0:14:52.800 --> 0:14:56.000
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, so the main problem actually from the technology standpoints,

0:14:56.120 --> 0:15:00.640
<v Speaker 5>the main problem is hydrogen takes more volume, yeah, to store.

0:15:00.760 --> 0:15:03.760
<v Speaker 5>So what we are doing and we're going after the

0:15:03.800 --> 0:15:08.520
<v Speaker 5>existing aircraft, existing fleets, and then existing types of aircraft,

0:15:08.600 --> 0:15:11.960
<v Speaker 5>maybe new aircraft, but existing types. So what we do

0:15:12.240 --> 0:15:15.480
<v Speaker 5>is we retrofit those aircraft and line fit and we're

0:15:15.520 --> 0:15:17.120
<v Speaker 5>able to achieve about.

0:15:16.800 --> 0:15:18.280
<v Speaker 4>Half the range. Right.

0:15:18.560 --> 0:15:22.040
<v Speaker 5>So an example I mentioned in Alaska, they have thirty

0:15:22.040 --> 0:15:24.920
<v Speaker 5>of those aircraft propel large propeller aircraft, seventy six seed

0:15:24.960 --> 0:15:28.080
<v Speaker 5>aircraft on fleet. Those aircraft on fossil fuel, they can

0:15:28.320 --> 0:15:31.920
<v Speaker 5>fly for one five hundred miles six hours in the air.

0:15:32.040 --> 0:15:34.800
<v Speaker 5>Nobody flies those things for six hours. So we are

0:15:34.840 --> 0:15:36.680
<v Speaker 5>coming in and we're saying we can't deliver half the

0:15:36.800 --> 0:15:40.120
<v Speaker 5>range seven hundred miles, and all the operators say, well,

0:15:40.120 --> 0:15:43.560
<v Speaker 5>that's fine because we fly them today three hundred miles

0:15:43.640 --> 0:15:46.360
<v Speaker 5>four hundred miles max. Right, Because when they were designed

0:15:46.360 --> 0:15:49.120
<v Speaker 5>back in the day, they were designed for long missions,

0:15:49.160 --> 0:15:49.680
<v Speaker 5>not anymore.

0:15:50.120 --> 0:15:52.040
<v Speaker 2>How big can you go in terms of like the

0:15:52.120 --> 0:15:55.600
<v Speaker 2>jumbo plane that I'm going to take home from Lax

0:15:55.640 --> 0:15:58.920
<v Speaker 2>back to New York. Is this ultimately what you can do?

0:15:59.120 --> 0:16:00.000
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, it's cossiles.

0:16:00.040 --> 0:16:03.000
<v Speaker 5>So within ten years we're hoping to get to what's

0:16:03.000 --> 0:16:06.080
<v Speaker 5>called single aisle, so Boying seven thirty seven or Airbus

0:16:06.120 --> 0:16:06.760
<v Speaker 5>A three twenty.

0:16:06.800 --> 0:16:08.480
<v Speaker 2>And what's holding you back from doing it?

0:16:08.480 --> 0:16:09.840
<v Speaker 4>Today?

0:16:09.880 --> 0:16:12.960
<v Speaker 5>We need to scale the technology, the fuel cells most

0:16:13.000 --> 0:16:17.800
<v Speaker 5>importantly to these large power levels, high power levels, right,

0:16:17.840 --> 0:16:20.400
<v Speaker 5>So today we have the technology that power is already

0:16:20.720 --> 0:16:24.040
<v Speaker 5>twenty seed aircraft and this flying, and we're submitting that

0:16:24.080 --> 0:16:27.800
<v Speaker 5>engine for certification later this year, launching twenty twenty five,

0:16:27.840 --> 0:16:30.160
<v Speaker 5>so two years out you'll be able to buy tickets yeah,

0:16:30.560 --> 0:16:34.320
<v Speaker 5>for that aircraft. The next size is the seventy six

0:16:34.360 --> 0:16:36.400
<v Speaker 5>seed aircraft. That will take us about five years to

0:16:36.400 --> 0:16:39.800
<v Speaker 5>get to commercial, but you know, within ten years we'll

0:16:39.800 --> 0:16:41.440
<v Speaker 5>be able to get to to get you.

0:16:41.480 --> 0:16:42.040
<v Speaker 4>To New York.

0:16:42.280 --> 0:16:46.920
<v Speaker 5>What's the safety Yeah, frequently asked question to the point

0:16:46.920 --> 0:16:49.640
<v Speaker 5>that at some point I had, you know, second page

0:16:49.680 --> 0:16:53.960
<v Speaker 5>on my presentations, Hindenberg, you know, just showing safe then

0:16:54.120 --> 0:16:56.520
<v Speaker 5>and then you know the message there is technology has

0:16:56.560 --> 0:17:00.040
<v Speaker 5>moved on right in eighty plus years, Yeah, so we

0:17:00.120 --> 0:17:04.040
<v Speaker 5>have one hundred week meaning you know, society, right, Yeah, worldwide,

0:17:04.080 --> 0:17:07.320
<v Speaker 5>we have over one hundred thousand ground vehicles operated on

0:17:07.440 --> 0:17:11.200
<v Speaker 5>hydrogen by unqualified personal You can you know, anybody can

0:17:11.240 --> 0:17:14.400
<v Speaker 5>walk into Toyota dealership today and buy a hydrogen car,

0:17:14.880 --> 0:17:18.680
<v Speaker 5>drive off, go into the fueling station and fuel up

0:17:18.800 --> 0:17:23.040
<v Speaker 5>with hydrogen, buy herself himself, you know, without any training.

0:17:23.200 --> 0:17:24.440
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, and no incidents.

0:17:24.800 --> 0:17:26.600
<v Speaker 2>But I don't see that anywhere, Yeah.

0:17:26.440 --> 0:17:28.280
<v Speaker 5>Because you know, a hundred thousand is not a huge

0:17:28.359 --> 0:17:31.800
<v Speaker 5>number with respect to you know, billions of vehicles worldwide,

0:17:31.840 --> 0:17:32.760
<v Speaker 5>but they're there.

0:17:32.760 --> 0:17:35.240
<v Speaker 4>California actually has like a third of them.

0:17:35.760 --> 0:17:38.240
<v Speaker 2>But where are we then doing more of that versus

0:17:38.280 --> 0:17:39.200
<v Speaker 2>the eb batteries?

0:17:39.280 --> 0:17:43.760
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, the vehicles, the hydrogen fuel cell technology is expensive

0:17:44.280 --> 0:17:47.359
<v Speaker 5>now relative to the combustion cars.

0:17:47.200 --> 0:17:48.960
<v Speaker 4>Relative to battery is much more expensive.

0:17:49.680 --> 0:17:52.439
<v Speaker 5>So Toyota I think still loses money on every vehicle,

0:17:52.440 --> 0:17:53.840
<v Speaker 5>and those are not cheap vehicles.

0:17:54.400 --> 0:17:57.080
<v Speaker 4>I think the is it double the cost of combustion

0:17:57.280 --> 0:17:58.840
<v Speaker 4>it's probably ten x ten.

0:17:58.720 --> 0:18:00.800
<v Speaker 2>Times, probably ten What about evy batter.

0:18:00.720 --> 0:18:02.879
<v Speaker 5>Part of that is volume game as well, right, so

0:18:03.119 --> 0:18:04.760
<v Speaker 5>you know you don't you don't have a long going

0:18:04.920 --> 0:18:09.240
<v Speaker 5>but in aviation, everything is expensive, right, So your performance

0:18:09.600 --> 0:18:12.640
<v Speaker 5>you're not based on cost, you based on performance and safety,

0:18:13.080 --> 0:18:16.520
<v Speaker 5>so you have a lot more room on the cost basis,

0:18:16.560 --> 0:18:19.720
<v Speaker 5>and that allows us to deploy these technologies in aviation.

0:18:20.240 --> 0:18:23.160
<v Speaker 5>And coupled with the fact that you know batteries will

0:18:23.160 --> 0:18:28.280
<v Speaker 5>not work sustainable aviation fuels are really fundamentally much more

0:18:28.280 --> 0:18:33.520
<v Speaker 5>expensive than hydrogen than hydrogen electric, that gives us an opportunity.

0:18:33.600 --> 0:18:35.280
<v Speaker 2>You have airlines lending up to order.

0:18:35.800 --> 0:18:39.199
<v Speaker 5>Absolutely, we have pre orders for about ten billion dollars

0:18:39.200 --> 0:18:44.360
<v Speaker 5>of worth of future revenues. Might have American Airlines, United Airlines.

0:18:43.960 --> 0:18:46.840
<v Speaker 2>For bigger, for the bigger actually for.

0:18:46.680 --> 0:18:48.280
<v Speaker 4>Regional planes to start with.

0:18:48.400 --> 0:18:50.600
<v Speaker 5>So in the next seven years we're looking to do,

0:18:50.960 --> 0:18:53.760
<v Speaker 5>you know, fulfill those orders, start fulfilling those orders. We

0:18:53.800 --> 0:18:58.240
<v Speaker 5>are now taking deposits, booking productions laws, very exciting time.

0:18:58.359 --> 0:19:01.240
<v Speaker 2>Unbelievable now, it's fascinating. So you think in ten years

0:19:01.280 --> 0:19:04.720
<v Speaker 2>from now it will be all over, well.

0:19:04.600 --> 0:19:08.880
<v Speaker 4>Not quite all over the big tween isle planes.

0:19:09.080 --> 0:19:11.520
<v Speaker 5>It will take more time, right, so these are what

0:19:11.600 --> 0:19:15.320
<v Speaker 5>you would take you know, from Lax to London, for example, right,

0:19:15.359 --> 0:19:18.280
<v Speaker 5>So that will take some time, but I think technology

0:19:18.320 --> 0:19:21.359
<v Speaker 5>will be available for all aircraft within twenty years. Yeah,

0:19:21.400 --> 0:19:24.080
<v Speaker 5>and then it's a you know, how how quickly will replace.

0:19:24.119 --> 0:19:27.480
<v Speaker 5>And that depends on how committed the governments are, how

0:19:27.520 --> 0:19:30.280
<v Speaker 5>committed the you know, the operators are and everybody else.

0:19:30.320 --> 0:19:31.840
<v Speaker 2>We'll come back and let us know how things are going.

0:19:31.920 --> 0:19:33.119
<v Speaker 4>Of course, love this space.

0:19:33.520 --> 0:19:37.119
<v Speaker 2>Val Michtakoff, he's founder and CEO of Zero Avia, joining

0:19:37.200 --> 0:19:39.600
<v Speaker 2>us here at Milk and you're listening and watching Bloomberg

0:19:39.600 --> 0:19:42.200
<v Speaker 2>Business Week, and this is Bloomberg Radio.

0:19:44.240 --> 0:19:47.800
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0:19:47.840 --> 0:19:51.879
<v Speaker 1>live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern on Bloomberg Radio,

0:19:52.040 --> 0:19:55.320
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0:19:55.440 --> 0:19:58.560
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0:19:59.000 --> 0:20:01.720
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0:20:03.560 --> 0:20:05.960
<v Speaker 6>Well, it has been a special edition of Bloomberg Business

0:20:06.000 --> 0:20:08.440
<v Speaker 6>Week Radio. We have been live from the Milk and

0:20:08.520 --> 0:20:12.159
<v Speaker 6>Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, and that's where we

0:20:12.200 --> 0:20:14.879
<v Speaker 6>find our next guest, Rich Lesser, is with us. He

0:20:15.000 --> 0:20:18.840
<v Speaker 6>is the global chair of BCG. Rich thanks for being

0:20:18.880 --> 0:20:22.000
<v Speaker 6>with us. Charlie was just talking there about the FED

0:20:22.040 --> 0:20:24.440
<v Speaker 6>today and the assertion on the part of the chairman

0:20:24.520 --> 0:20:27.320
<v Speaker 6>that maybe we get a recession and if we do,

0:20:28.000 --> 0:20:32.359
<v Speaker 6>it will be mild. Now, you run a rather large consultancy,

0:20:32.400 --> 0:20:35.000
<v Speaker 6>and I'm wondering whether or not you share the same

0:20:35.119 --> 0:20:37.280
<v Speaker 6>view here. What are businesses telling you right now?

0:20:39.600 --> 0:20:41.639
<v Speaker 7>Those are two separate questions. It's a pleasure to be

0:20:41.680 --> 0:20:45.840
<v Speaker 7>with you, don the first. On the first question, I'm

0:20:45.960 --> 0:20:49.199
<v Speaker 7>personally leaning to the more optimistic side of that. I

0:20:49.240 --> 0:20:57.399
<v Speaker 7>think we're seeing inflation pressures decreasing relatively quickly, and I

0:20:57.440 --> 0:21:01.400
<v Speaker 7>think that that will continue, and my hope is that

0:21:01.400 --> 0:21:03.480
<v Speaker 7>that will allow the Fed to not have to go

0:21:03.560 --> 0:21:06.199
<v Speaker 7>higher on rates. I have no sense of when they

0:21:06.280 --> 0:21:08.560
<v Speaker 7>might start cutting. I think they're going to be cautious

0:21:08.560 --> 0:21:12.360
<v Speaker 7>on bringing them down again, but I'm hopeful that we'll

0:21:12.359 --> 0:21:15.119
<v Speaker 7>see a plateauing of where we are now, and I

0:21:15.119 --> 0:21:17.360
<v Speaker 7>think there's a real chance that will avoid a recession.

0:21:17.359 --> 0:21:20.200
<v Speaker 7>And I thought his words that better than a fifty

0:21:20.240 --> 0:21:23.080
<v Speaker 7>percent chance we avoid a recession, and most likely if

0:21:23.119 --> 0:21:25.199
<v Speaker 7>we have one, it will be mild. As for me,

0:21:25.280 --> 0:21:28.119
<v Speaker 7>would calibrate with what we're seeing and hearing. There's a

0:21:28.160 --> 0:21:30.879
<v Speaker 7>second thing about how CEOs are feeling right now, and

0:21:30.960 --> 0:21:34.160
<v Speaker 7>I would say the starting point is a high level

0:21:34.200 --> 0:21:40.840
<v Speaker 7>of uncertainty. There's just so many factors macroeconomic geopolitical and

0:21:41.119 --> 0:21:44.560
<v Speaker 7>various pressures that they're feeling, and I think as a result,

0:21:44.960 --> 0:21:48.840
<v Speaker 7>there's a conservativism in the CEO community in response to

0:21:48.880 --> 0:21:53.840
<v Speaker 7>an uncertain environment in terms of focusing very heavily on resilience.

0:21:54.200 --> 0:21:56.439
<v Speaker 7>There's an underlying recognition the rate of change in the

0:21:56.440 --> 0:22:00.520
<v Speaker 7>world also continues to rise, AI being the focus of

0:22:00.560 --> 0:22:02.199
<v Speaker 7>the moment, so I don't want to minimize that, but

0:22:02.240 --> 0:22:05.280
<v Speaker 7>i'd say uncertainty and resilience are the top of mind

0:22:05.280 --> 0:22:06.760
<v Speaker 7>words for CEOs.

0:22:06.400 --> 0:22:08.119
<v Speaker 6>Before we take a closer look at the kind of

0:22:08.119 --> 0:22:10.680
<v Speaker 6>the global perspective, I want to get your reaction to

0:22:10.720 --> 0:22:13.280
<v Speaker 6>what's been happening among some of these regional banks. We're

0:22:13.320 --> 0:22:16.640
<v Speaker 6>just getting indications now that another PacWest Bank Orp. Which

0:22:16.680 --> 0:22:18.800
<v Speaker 6>is headquartered right in the same city where you are

0:22:18.920 --> 0:22:21.840
<v Speaker 6>right now, Beverly Hills, California, it's weighing a number of

0:22:21.840 --> 0:22:25.320
<v Speaker 6>strategic options, one of which may be an outright sale,

0:22:25.320 --> 0:22:28.120
<v Speaker 6>although that's really unclear at this point who might buy

0:22:28.160 --> 0:22:31.040
<v Speaker 6>the bank. When you look at the contraction that we

0:22:31.119 --> 0:22:34.320
<v Speaker 6>have seen within the number of lenders, We've only been

0:22:34.359 --> 0:22:38.280
<v Speaker 6>talking about four or five overall, but the footprint clearly

0:22:38.359 --> 0:22:42.040
<v Speaker 6>is shrinking and their ability to influence credit in the

0:22:42.080 --> 0:22:45.679
<v Speaker 6>broader US economy may bee dwindling right now? Is that

0:22:45.760 --> 0:22:46.760
<v Speaker 6>concerning to you at all?

0:22:48.560 --> 0:22:53.159
<v Speaker 7>I think that there's an underlying negative pressure that comes

0:22:53.200 --> 0:22:56.119
<v Speaker 7>from what's going on in banking right now. Negative in

0:22:56.160 --> 0:22:59.560
<v Speaker 7>two senses. One is the large banks really face strict

0:22:59.640 --> 0:23:02.560
<v Speaker 7>rules on lending, so to the degree that large banks

0:23:02.600 --> 0:23:07.200
<v Speaker 7>are gaining share because they receive greater scrutiny, they may

0:23:07.200 --> 0:23:09.960
<v Speaker 7>have less expanse of lending policies. And second that the

0:23:10.000 --> 0:23:12.680
<v Speaker 7>regional banks themselves, facing all the pressures that we're seeing,

0:23:13.080 --> 0:23:15.800
<v Speaker 7>are likely to be more conservative. I think it's part

0:23:15.840 --> 0:23:18.159
<v Speaker 7>of the reason we're most likely to see a leveling

0:23:18.200 --> 0:23:21.520
<v Speaker 7>off of FED rate increases versus what we might have

0:23:21.600 --> 0:23:24.600
<v Speaker 7>expected two or three months ago, because they realized there's

0:23:24.640 --> 0:23:27.679
<v Speaker 7>these downward pressures coming from the credit challenges in the

0:23:27.760 --> 0:23:30.720
<v Speaker 7>US economy. I think the question is how that stabilizes

0:23:30.760 --> 0:23:35.520
<v Speaker 7>in the medium term. I think there's been relatively good

0:23:35.520 --> 0:23:38.840
<v Speaker 7>intervention so far to prevent a crisis from spreading that

0:23:38.920 --> 0:23:42.280
<v Speaker 7>we see even in this afternoon's data, the continued pressures there,

0:23:42.440 --> 0:23:44.800
<v Speaker 7>so we're not out of the woods yet, even if

0:23:44.880 --> 0:23:46.680
<v Speaker 7>so far it's been navigated pretty well.

0:23:47.119 --> 0:23:51.440
<v Speaker 6>Wonder get your views on the global situation, particularly US China.

0:23:51.480 --> 0:23:53.679
<v Speaker 6>We had a story earlier today on the Bloomberg Terminal

0:23:54.080 --> 0:23:57.280
<v Speaker 6>indicating that the senior advisors to the White House said

0:23:57.320 --> 0:24:00.720
<v Speaker 6>that the American economy is vulnerable to China's law on

0:24:01.640 --> 0:24:05.320
<v Speaker 6>critical mineral processing. That just is one example. We know

0:24:05.440 --> 0:24:09.159
<v Speaker 6>the semiconductor story you mentioned Ai. I'm sure that when

0:24:09.240 --> 0:24:12.560
<v Speaker 6>you get into some of these advanced semiconductors, that represents

0:24:12.600 --> 0:24:15.800
<v Speaker 6>a real concern here. How do you view the US

0:24:15.960 --> 0:24:17.440
<v Speaker 6>China relationship right now?

0:24:20.040 --> 0:24:24.480
<v Speaker 7>It is probably the highest level of concern for the

0:24:24.520 --> 0:24:27.240
<v Speaker 7>business community. And I would say for me as well.

0:24:27.280 --> 0:24:29.000
<v Speaker 7>I mean not that I don't I don't want to

0:24:29.000 --> 0:24:31.960
<v Speaker 7>minimize all these near term economic pressures we just discussed,

0:24:32.200 --> 0:24:35.720
<v Speaker 7>but I'm really quite optimistic we'll navigate through that period.

0:24:36.040 --> 0:24:39.399
<v Speaker 7>The underlying geopolitical tension between the US and China is

0:24:39.440 --> 0:24:43.720
<v Speaker 7>a different animal. It's a wild card for the business

0:24:43.800 --> 0:24:45.920
<v Speaker 7>leaders to predict where it's going to go. I think

0:24:46.000 --> 0:24:48.920
<v Speaker 7>no one can predict. It's certainly not the business community,

0:24:48.960 --> 0:24:53.160
<v Speaker 7>and it's extremely challenging. And you discussed the challenges of

0:24:53.440 --> 0:24:58.000
<v Speaker 7>the US dependency on China for critical elements, but it

0:24:58.040 --> 0:25:01.240
<v Speaker 7>goes the other way too. China relies on chips that

0:25:01.280 --> 0:25:04.240
<v Speaker 7>are manufactured in Taiwan that use technology that comes from

0:25:04.280 --> 0:25:08.200
<v Speaker 7>the US, from Europe, from elsewhere, so they're feeling uncertainty

0:25:08.240 --> 0:25:11.760
<v Speaker 7>and risk as well. And when both sides are feeling

0:25:11.880 --> 0:25:15.679
<v Speaker 7>uncertainty and you have a rapid deterioration in trust, you

0:25:15.880 --> 0:25:18.959
<v Speaker 7>have a level of unpredictability which is very high. And

0:25:19.000 --> 0:25:22.000
<v Speaker 7>we're observing that it continues to seem tougher and tougher.

0:25:22.600 --> 0:25:25.480
<v Speaker 7>We're seeing a loss of trust almost week by week,

0:25:25.840 --> 0:25:29.919
<v Speaker 7>and we hope that the political leaders on both sides

0:25:29.960 --> 0:25:32.199
<v Speaker 7>can do some things to rebuild some of that trust

0:25:32.600 --> 0:25:36.679
<v Speaker 7>because the downside scenarios on all sides are very high.

0:25:37.240 --> 0:25:39.800
<v Speaker 6>What level of confidence do you have right now in

0:25:39.840 --> 0:25:42.159
<v Speaker 6>the current administration to navigate that terrain.

0:25:48.000 --> 0:25:51.800
<v Speaker 7>I am optimistic we will avoid the worst case scenarios,

0:25:52.160 --> 0:25:55.160
<v Speaker 7>and I think that it is really tough right now.

0:25:55.200 --> 0:25:58.920
<v Speaker 7>But I think both China and the US leadership realize

0:25:59.359 --> 0:26:02.440
<v Speaker 7>that why the price that gets paid if we let

0:26:02.440 --> 0:26:04.680
<v Speaker 7>things really fall off a cliff here, and I think

0:26:04.680 --> 0:26:07.320
<v Speaker 7>they'll be able to avoid it. The challenge is not

0:26:07.440 --> 0:26:11.400
<v Speaker 7>what the intent is. That sometimes wild cards can come

0:26:11.440 --> 0:26:14.320
<v Speaker 7>that no one can predict, and when neither side is

0:26:14.359 --> 0:26:18.159
<v Speaker 7>talking to the other, they put their own interpretations on it,

0:26:18.240 --> 0:26:20.600
<v Speaker 7>so it's not the intent on either side. I don't

0:26:20.600 --> 0:26:23.080
<v Speaker 7>think either side wants this to fall off a cliff.

0:26:23.080 --> 0:26:26.200
<v Speaker 7>There's too much interdependency. It's that some of the elements

0:26:26.240 --> 0:26:29.359
<v Speaker 7>that build trust and the mechanisms that allow for clear

0:26:29.400 --> 0:26:32.480
<v Speaker 7>communication are not as strong as they should be right now,

0:26:32.520 --> 0:26:35.119
<v Speaker 7>and we need both sides to work on rebuilding some

0:26:35.200 --> 0:26:35.399
<v Speaker 7>of that.

0:26:35.680 --> 0:26:38.680
<v Speaker 6>Rich, last question, I'll give you thirty seconds talking about

0:26:38.720 --> 0:26:41.960
<v Speaker 6>optimism here. Are you optimistic that we're going to get

0:26:41.960 --> 0:26:44.760
<v Speaker 6>a resolution to this debt sealing issue here in the US?

0:26:46.800 --> 0:26:51.080
<v Speaker 7>Yes, but not without a whole lot of pain. I mean,

0:26:51.400 --> 0:26:54.919
<v Speaker 7>it seems that we can't just move to things that

0:26:54.960 --> 0:26:58.560
<v Speaker 7>seem basic in running a country or an economy. It

0:26:58.600 --> 0:27:01.320
<v Speaker 7>seems we can only do it with extraordinary stress and

0:27:01.400 --> 0:27:05.639
<v Speaker 7>down to the minute deadlines, and it's frustrating. It's frustrating

0:27:05.680 --> 0:27:10.400
<v Speaker 7>for business leaders. They want predictability. But we'll get there.

0:27:10.560 --> 0:27:11.800
<v Speaker 7>It will be really painful.

0:27:12.080 --> 0:27:14.600
<v Speaker 6>Rich, thanks so much for taking time to chat with us.

0:27:14.720 --> 0:27:18.120
<v Speaker 6>Rich Lesser is the Global Chair of VCG. Live from

0:27:18.160 --> 0:27:22.280
<v Speaker 6>the Milk and Institute Global Conference from Beverly Hills here

0:27:22.320 --> 0:27:24.920
<v Speaker 6>on Bloomberg BusinessWeek, and this is Bloomberg.

0:27:25.800 --> 0:27:29.000
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