WEBVTT - Coronavirus and Climate Change 0:00:15.356 --> 0:00:21.876 Pushkin from Pushkin Industries. This is Deep Background, the show 0:00:21.916 --> 0:00:25.076 where we explore the stories behind the stories in the news. 0:00:25.676 --> 0:00:29.116 I'm Noah Feldman. When we all come out from social 0:00:29.156 --> 0:00:33.756 isolation after the coronavirus pandemic finally ends, and I'm assuming 0:00:33.756 --> 0:00:38.036 it will, we will emerge changed, and we will emerge 0:00:38.076 --> 0:00:41.556 into a changed world. Is there a chance that one 0:00:41.596 --> 0:00:45.356 of those changes will be that we've become more environmentally 0:00:45.396 --> 0:00:49.596 friendly or at least more environmentally aware. Are there things 0:00:49.636 --> 0:00:51.916 we could be doing now while everything is on pause 0:00:52.356 --> 0:00:54.836 that could have a long lasting impact on the health 0:00:54.916 --> 0:00:57.716 of our planet or our thing is going to go 0:00:57.796 --> 0:01:00.996 the other way? Is our need to restart our economy 0:01:00.996 --> 0:01:05.396 and going to overwhelm our impulse to improve the environment. 0:01:06.156 --> 0:01:09.156 Might the enormous cost of the bailouts were engaged and 0:01:09.236 --> 0:01:12.956 now actually deter us from investing in a serious way 0:01:13.236 --> 0:01:16.556 into transformation of our energy system to fight climate change. 0:01:17.276 --> 0:01:21.196 To discuss these pressing questions, I'm joined by Bill mckibbon. 0:01:21.836 --> 0:01:24.476 Bill's a central figure in the history of the climate 0:01:24.516 --> 0:01:27.356 change struggle. He was one of the first people to 0:01:27.396 --> 0:01:30.996 write and advocate about climate change almost thirty years ago 0:01:31.276 --> 0:01:34.516 in his best selling book The End of nature. He's 0:01:34.516 --> 0:01:37.716 been a central figure in the climate change movement ever since, 0:01:38.076 --> 0:01:40.396 a writer for The New Yorker and the founder of 0:01:40.396 --> 0:01:45.636 the grassroots climate campaign three fifty dot org, among other distinctions. 0:01:45.836 --> 0:01:52.356 Bill is also the father of our shore runner, Sophie mckibbon. Bill, 0:01:52.396 --> 0:01:54.996 thank you so much for joining me. I wanted to 0:01:55.036 --> 0:01:57.876 start with what is, in a sense, the most obvious question, 0:01:58.396 --> 0:02:02.076 which is here you are? You spend the better part 0:02:02.196 --> 0:02:05.356 of your career trying to get the world to sit 0:02:05.436 --> 0:02:09.556 up and take notice of a profound crisis, and you've 0:02:09.596 --> 0:02:12.236 done an extraordinary job of it. Yet it's been a 0:02:12.236 --> 0:02:17.036 struggle every step of the way. Then suddenly, February March 0:02:17.316 --> 0:02:22.436 of twenty twenty, a handful of people initially die of 0:02:22.636 --> 0:02:26.756 an obscure virus, and boom, just about the entire world 0:02:26.836 --> 0:02:31.196 goes into full on crisis mode with almost no indication 0:02:31.356 --> 0:02:33.636 of what the consequences are going to be. Listening to 0:02:33.676 --> 0:02:36.596 a handful of experts whom no one had heard of before. 0:02:37.076 --> 0:02:41.716 Does that seem strange too? Well, it doesn't seem strange 0:02:41.836 --> 0:02:45.996 in that the immediacy of a pandemic, of a medical crisis, 0:02:46.036 --> 0:02:49.756 the idea that everyone can quickly imagine themselves falling ill 0:02:49.876 --> 0:02:52.676 or dying or the people around them that they love. 0:02:53.116 --> 0:02:56.436 I mean, that's one of the reasons we move fast 0:02:56.556 --> 0:02:59.716 in these situations. The other is, and it's not to 0:02:59.796 --> 0:03:03.716 be discounted, the one good thing about the coronavirus is 0:03:03.836 --> 0:03:08.916 there's not a trillion dollar industry whose business model depends 0:03:08.916 --> 0:03:11.996 on us all getting sick and dying. There is a 0:03:11.996 --> 0:03:14.956 trillion dollar industry whose business model depends on us not 0:03:15.076 --> 0:03:19.396 taking climate change seriously. And that's been, more than anything else, 0:03:19.596 --> 0:03:22.396 the reason that we haven't done so for thirty years. 0:03:22.876 --> 0:03:24.956 I want to ask you about the sort of two 0:03:24.996 --> 0:03:28.636 different pathways, each a bit extremely in the way they're stated, 0:03:29.236 --> 0:03:32.396 that are being bandied about about what will happen in 0:03:32.436 --> 0:03:34.596 the aftermath of Corona, assuming there is an aftermath of 0:03:34.636 --> 0:03:38.396 Corona for us with respect to environmentalism and climate change. 0:03:38.556 --> 0:03:40.676 The one being well, look, we now know that people 0:03:40.716 --> 0:03:42.796 can get together and take seriously a threat, and this 0:03:42.876 --> 0:03:45.476 is extraordinarily hopeful because we could learn from these things 0:03:45.716 --> 0:03:48.996 and maybe translate them into the climate challenge. And then 0:03:49.036 --> 0:03:52.556 the other saying very very pessimistically, there's a huge difference 0:03:52.556 --> 0:03:55.196 between an immediate visible threat and a more difficult to 0:03:55.236 --> 0:03:58.556 see one. In fact, industry will have a tremendously powerful 0:03:58.596 --> 0:04:00.596 argument on its side that we should be putting aside 0:04:00.956 --> 0:04:03.996 long term considerations in favor of short term rebuilding considerations, 0:04:03.996 --> 0:04:06.356 and this is actually going to make things harder, not easier. 0:04:07.156 --> 0:04:10.316 So both those things are going to happen at one 0:04:10.396 --> 0:04:13.916 level or another. There's a powerful desire to get back 0:04:13.956 --> 0:04:18.396 to normal, and it'll manifest in all kinds of ways, 0:04:18.636 --> 0:04:21.116 and some of those ways will make our job of 0:04:21.196 --> 0:04:26.156 dealing with this other overarching climate crisis harder. Look, there's 0:04:26.196 --> 0:04:27.996 not many people who are going to be eager to 0:04:28.436 --> 0:04:32.796 jump back on the subway right because it's scarier place 0:04:32.876 --> 0:04:35.836 than it was six months ago. So there'll likely be 0:04:35.916 --> 0:04:39.356 a lot of people retreating the use of their private 0:04:39.436 --> 0:04:43.836 automobiles in a lot of places, and with gas at 0:04:44.116 --> 0:04:46.796 a dollar forty nine a gallon or whatever it is now, 0:04:47.116 --> 0:04:49.996 there may well be a kind of booming sale of 0:04:50.356 --> 0:04:53.916 SUVs and so on. On the other hand, you've got 0:04:53.996 --> 0:04:56.236 lots and lots of places around the world that are 0:04:56.276 --> 0:05:00.716 taking this moment as a way to make deep change. 0:05:01.116 --> 0:05:03.276 The city of London, which we're used to thinking of 0:05:03.356 --> 0:05:06.676 as the kind of epitome of hide bound old tradition 0:05:07.156 --> 0:05:11.116 has announced that they're basically close most of the streets 0:05:11.116 --> 0:05:13.876 in the center of the city to cars henceforth, and 0:05:13.956 --> 0:05:17.956 it's going to be bikes and buses and pedestrians, so 0:05:18.156 --> 0:05:23.316 it's cutting both ways. What the pandemic really demonstrates, however, 0:05:23.836 --> 0:05:28.636 maybe something we haven't focused on yet. We basically shut 0:05:28.716 --> 0:05:32.036 down the world for a matter of months in a 0:05:32.076 --> 0:05:34.436 way that you or I would have thought was impossible. 0:05:34.796 --> 0:05:37.916 Nothing like that's ever happened in our lifetimes, nothing even 0:05:38.076 --> 0:05:42.476 close to what's ever happened. And yet it looks like 0:05:42.716 --> 0:05:47.316 carbon emissions probably will go down maybe seven or eight 0:05:47.316 --> 0:05:51.236 percent this year. That's it. And what that seems to 0:05:51.276 --> 0:05:55.076 indicate is that an awful lot of what we're doing 0:05:55.636 --> 0:05:59.196 is less as a result of individual choice than of 0:05:59.316 --> 0:06:03.476 things being kind of hardwired into the system. That we're 0:06:03.476 --> 0:06:06.276 going to have to get in the guts of modernity 0:06:06.596 --> 0:06:09.636 and make some basic plumbing changes if we're going to 0:06:09.716 --> 0:06:14.476 be achieving the kind of scale of emissions reductions and 0:06:14.556 --> 0:06:17.516 things that the scientists tell us are necessary. And that's 0:06:17.556 --> 0:06:20.556 an interesting thing to find out. We could all stop 0:06:20.556 --> 0:06:24.396 flying and all stop driving and it still didn't really 0:06:24.516 --> 0:06:28.476 bend this particular curve that much guide us into the 0:06:28.516 --> 0:06:31.756 guts of modernity. Then I want to understand why the 0:06:31.876 --> 0:06:35.036 numbers are not down as radically as that. What are 0:06:35.036 --> 0:06:37.916 the causes of emissions that are remaining so great that 0:06:37.996 --> 0:06:41.116 only seven or eight percent reduction will be achieved this year. Well, 0:06:41.116 --> 0:06:47.196 it's because the underlying kind of autonomic systems on our planet, 0:06:47.196 --> 0:06:50.876 the energy generation that we use every day, the energy 0:06:50.916 --> 0:06:53.876 generation that you and I have been using to light 0:06:53.916 --> 0:06:57.756 and heat our homes, to run everything around us, Every building, 0:06:57.836 --> 0:07:01.316 every piece of the built environment at the moment is 0:07:01.716 --> 0:07:04.916 plugged into this system that relies mostly on digging stuff 0:07:04.996 --> 0:07:09.636 up and burning it. And that's what can change, and 0:07:09.956 --> 0:07:13.916 can change pretty quickly if we want it to. We're 0:07:13.956 --> 0:07:17.916 at a really interesting moment right now. Now. This pandemic 0:07:18.036 --> 0:07:21.956 comes at the end of a decade in which engineers 0:07:21.956 --> 0:07:25.556 have done spectacular work. They've dropped the price of a 0:07:25.556 --> 0:07:28.436 solar panel or a wind turbine by something like ninety 0:07:28.516 --> 0:07:31.476 percent to the place where these are now by far 0:07:31.556 --> 0:07:34.596 the cheapest way to generate power around most of the world. 0:07:35.556 --> 0:07:39.716 So over time we'll move in that direction. Seventy five 0:07:39.796 --> 0:07:42.476 years from now, we'll probably run the world on sun 0:07:42.516 --> 0:07:45.596 and wind because it's cheap. But if we just let 0:07:45.756 --> 0:07:49.876 kind of economics dictate the pace, then we'll go so 0:07:49.956 --> 0:07:52.916 slowly that that world we run on sun and wind 0:07:52.956 --> 0:07:56.356 in seventy five years will be a fundamentally broken world. 0:07:57.076 --> 0:08:00.356 So the job is to figure out can we push 0:08:00.436 --> 0:08:04.356 the pace. And that's where the pandemic is interesting. Given 0:08:04.356 --> 0:08:08.436 that we have all these now cheap technologies pretty much 0:08:08.516 --> 0:08:12.556 ready to go, and given that we have a huge 0:08:12.996 --> 0:08:17.116 now mass of unemployed people around the world who need 0:08:17.236 --> 0:08:20.476 something to do, it's pretty clear to me that the 0:08:20.556 --> 0:08:24.876 only task that the world faces that's on that same 0:08:24.956 --> 0:08:28.236 scale is this task of moving us from one energy 0:08:28.276 --> 0:08:33.956 regime to another. So retrofitting buildings with insulation and with 0:08:34.476 --> 0:08:38.396 new appliances like air source heat pumps, building out a 0:08:38.516 --> 0:08:42.756 network of electric car charging stations, putting up all that 0:08:42.836 --> 0:08:46.476 sun and windpower. If there was an FDR around today, 0:08:46.836 --> 0:08:49.436 those are the tasks he'd be seizing on for a 0:08:49.596 --> 0:08:54.236 WPA or a CCC or whatever it was. And what 0:08:54.316 --> 0:08:56.556 do you know, it just so happens that we have 0:08:56.716 --> 0:09:00.396 in hand from a year ago this idea for a 0:09:00.436 --> 0:09:03.556 green new deal. I have a feeling that that may 0:09:03.596 --> 0:09:07.556 be one of the ways in which the world grapples 0:09:07.596 --> 0:09:11.636 with the twin problem as it now faces, And indeed, 0:09:11.636 --> 0:09:14.156 you can see it's starting to happen. Germany and South 0:09:14.276 --> 0:09:17.036 Korea and a number of other countries seem to be 0:09:17.076 --> 0:09:20.196 picking a kind of green New Deal template as their 0:09:20.436 --> 0:09:23.396 way out of the economic trouble that they're now in. 0:09:24.276 --> 0:09:26.596 Often when I listen to you, I'm struck by the 0:09:26.636 --> 0:09:30.796 balance that you have to strike between making us afraid 0:09:31.276 --> 0:09:34.676 in order to motivates the action and giving us some reassurance. 0:09:35.276 --> 0:09:37.516 I want to double down on the fear right now, 0:09:37.556 --> 0:09:39.236 because when I was listening to you just now, the 0:09:39.316 --> 0:09:42.636 fear I think came when you were saying that we 0:09:42.716 --> 0:09:46.796 need to make these fundamental, long run infrastructure investments of 0:09:46.796 --> 0:09:50.956 a new Deal type. And right now we're doing, at 0:09:50.956 --> 0:09:55.196 an international scale, the most massive instantaneous borrowing against the 0:09:55.236 --> 0:09:58.116 future that we've done since the Great Depression. So if 0:09:58.116 --> 0:10:01.716 we're already engaged in this really generational borrowing, how are 0:10:01.716 --> 0:10:04.636 we going to have the capacity to do it again? 0:10:05.476 --> 0:10:10.356 For environmental transformation, the first thing to be said is 0:10:10.876 --> 0:10:13.556 the things that you're afraid of are good things to 0:10:13.556 --> 0:10:16.676 be afraid of, but the things to really be afraid 0:10:16.716 --> 0:10:19.396 of to really feel in the pit of your stomach, 0:10:20.196 --> 0:10:26.196 are in fact the changes that are now expressing themselves 0:10:26.236 --> 0:10:29.396 on the planet, even in the early phases of climate change. 0:10:29.796 --> 0:10:32.196 I mean, we've warmed the planet one degree so far, 0:10:32.356 --> 0:10:34.636 and that's been enough to knock pretty much all our 0:10:34.716 --> 0:10:39.596 systems a kilter. The devastation that we're already seeing is enormous, 0:10:40.516 --> 0:10:44.796 and it comes with an almost unimaginable price tag if 0:10:44.836 --> 0:10:47.076 all you were thinking about was the kind of economic 0:10:47.316 --> 0:10:52.356 challenge that it presents. The latest study I saw on 0:10:52.396 --> 0:10:55.916 the price of unabated global warming by the end of 0:10:55.916 --> 0:10:58.716 the century, who was about five hundred and fifty one 0:10:58.916 --> 0:11:03.036 trillion dollars, which is considerably more money than currently exists 0:11:03.036 --> 0:11:06.996 on planet Earth. So that's the scale of the challenge, 0:11:07.116 --> 0:11:12.036 and that's precisely why we should be making as wise 0:11:12.236 --> 0:11:15.636 investments as we can right now, even in the midst 0:11:15.636 --> 0:11:19.716 of the kind of panic that surrounds this pandemic. I mean, 0:11:19.796 --> 0:11:22.436 I think clearly people will look back and see this 0:11:22.476 --> 0:11:25.396 as one of the few moments when we really did 0:11:25.676 --> 0:11:29.996 get a sort of break, a pause in order to 0:11:29.996 --> 0:11:33.956 reset some of our assumptions about the world. And we're 0:11:33.996 --> 0:11:36.316 at a place where we can change some of those 0:11:36.356 --> 0:11:40.076 assumptions and do it in ways that make economic sense. 0:11:40.596 --> 0:11:44.276 What it really takes is some degree of leadership, and 0:11:44.316 --> 0:11:49.596 of course right now we're coming up empty there. Our 0:11:49.676 --> 0:11:53.276 problem is, and this is the thing that makes me 0:11:53.636 --> 0:12:00.196 scared sometimes at night. Climate change, like the coronavirus, is 0:12:00.636 --> 0:12:04.036 a problem where the answer has to come fast, if 0:12:04.076 --> 0:12:07.876 it's going to come at all. They're both time tests, 0:12:08.196 --> 0:12:11.636 and the time is short. So we failed the timed 0:12:11.716 --> 0:12:16.356 test part of the coronavirus, right. We took off February 0:12:16.436 --> 0:12:19.836 from effective policy making, and as a result we were 0:12:19.876 --> 0:12:23.556 really screwed. And the countries that spent February doing the 0:12:23.636 --> 0:12:26.476 things that needed doing were by and large ended up 0:12:26.596 --> 0:12:30.436 better off than we did. With climate change. We took 0:12:30.476 --> 0:12:34.516 off the last thirty years from offensive policy making, and 0:12:34.636 --> 0:12:37.916 so now we're in really deep trouble as a result, 0:12:38.516 --> 0:12:42.556 not only are we going to have significant damage, our 0:12:42.636 --> 0:12:48.596 only chance of avoiding just sort of civilization scale carnage 0:12:49.116 --> 0:12:51.996 is if we make huge progress in the next decade. 0:12:52.636 --> 0:12:55.916 The next decade for climate change is the equivalent of 0:12:55.916 --> 0:13:00.116 what February was for coronavirus. Our chance to get it 0:13:00.236 --> 0:13:04.316 at least partly right If we are able to internalize 0:13:04.316 --> 0:13:07.036 that in some way, then we've got a shot. If 0:13:07.076 --> 0:13:10.916 we're not, then we'll just aimlessly wander through and we'll 0:13:10.956 --> 0:13:14.436 be in trouble far forwards than anything we're in now. 0:13:15.356 --> 0:13:26.316 We'll be back in just a moment. One of the 0:13:26.436 --> 0:13:29.356 ongoing challenges that the whole climate change movement has faced 0:13:29.676 --> 0:13:35.516 has been a genuine skepticism by many ordinary people at 0:13:35.556 --> 0:13:38.876 the authority of science. A sense of scientists is disconnected 0:13:38.916 --> 0:13:41.436 as belonging to elites who don't have the interest of 0:13:41.516 --> 0:13:43.996 ordinary people at heart. Do you have a sense that 0:13:44.396 --> 0:13:47.996 the public reaction to science and to scientific authority during 0:13:47.996 --> 0:13:51.316 the Corona crisis is likely to make a difference in 0:13:51.316 --> 0:13:54.156 that conflict, because it does seem to me they are translatable. 0:13:54.196 --> 0:13:55.756 I mean, for example, if we were to get an 0:13:55.796 --> 0:13:58.636 effective vaccine for Corona, which I myself I am not 0:13:58.676 --> 0:14:00.836 convinced as a high probability event from all the experts 0:14:00.876 --> 0:14:03.676 I've spoken to, but it's also a possible event that 0:14:03.756 --> 0:14:07.516 could in principle, really enhance the prestige of scientific authority, 0:14:07.676 --> 0:14:10.276 and if we don't, seems at least possible to me 0:14:10.276 --> 0:14:15.076 that that could further deflate the authority of the scientific community. Yeah, 0:14:15.156 --> 0:14:18.276 it's a really good question, and I think actually there's 0:14:18.276 --> 0:14:21.716 some pretty good signs. The news business being what it is, 0:14:21.756 --> 0:14:24.716 we have no choice to focus on all the knuckleheads 0:14:24.716 --> 0:14:26.996 who wanted to go out to the bar or were 0:14:27.196 --> 0:14:32.276 standing around the Michigan Governor's office with AK forty sevens 0:14:32.356 --> 0:14:34.916 or whatever it was that people were doing. But for 0:14:34.956 --> 0:14:38.996 the most part, Americans were like, yeah, Okay, if the 0:14:39.116 --> 0:14:41.876 doctor says we need to stand six feet apart, we 0:14:41.956 --> 0:14:46.916 best stand six feet apart. I've been pretty pleasantly surprised 0:14:47.236 --> 0:14:53.756 by how well Americans dealt with the reality that suddenly 0:14:53.836 --> 0:14:57.356 was thrust upon them. Most people really did turn their 0:14:57.356 --> 0:15:01.476 lives upside down. The polling seems to show that most 0:15:01.476 --> 0:15:04.396 people respected the politicians who told them to do that 0:15:04.596 --> 0:15:08.716 and worked with them to make it done. We're in 0:15:08.876 --> 0:15:14.316 a weird political fever dream these last years. You know 0:15:14.836 --> 0:15:17.716 a place where it's very hard to find a center 0:15:17.836 --> 0:15:21.316 where up is down and down is up. You know 0:15:21.316 --> 0:15:24.716 where we live in a world of odd conspiracy theories, 0:15:24.756 --> 0:15:30.236 whether they're about vaccinations or climate change, or chemtrails, or 0:15:30.636 --> 0:15:32.996 on and on and on down a long and dreary list. 0:15:34.516 --> 0:15:38.116 It's possible that this pandemic has been enough of a 0:15:38.156 --> 0:15:40.636 shock to the system that will will help us wake 0:15:40.716 --> 0:15:43.516 us out of that fever dream a little bit. I've 0:15:44.636 --> 0:15:47.756 spent an awful lot of time trying to explain to 0:15:47.836 --> 0:15:54.276 people that physics and chemistry aren't negotiable. You can't force 0:15:54.316 --> 0:15:58.396 them to compromise, that they're not going to meet you halfway. 0:15:59.356 --> 0:16:03.116 And that's why these kind of issues are so difficult 0:16:03.196 --> 0:16:06.556 for our political system. I mean, even at its best, 0:16:06.716 --> 0:16:10.916 even when it's working correctly, political system is set up 0:16:10.996 --> 0:16:15.196 to favor compromise. Right. You get groups of people with 0:16:15.396 --> 0:16:18.556 different opinions about topics and they have to somehow kind 0:16:18.556 --> 0:16:22.996 of meet in the middle. That's not what coronavirus or 0:16:23.076 --> 0:16:26.676 climate change are like. They set the terms. If the 0:16:26.756 --> 0:16:30.476 microbe says stands six feet apart, stands six feet apart. 0:16:30.516 --> 0:16:34.556 If the carbon dioxide molecule says we can't keep burning stuff, 0:16:34.596 --> 0:16:38.716 it's getting too hot, then you best pay attention. So 0:16:39.436 --> 0:16:41.876 there are no silver linings in a pandemic. But if 0:16:41.876 --> 0:16:43.476 we're going to go through this much trouble, we might 0:16:43.476 --> 0:16:46.996 as well learn something. And a basic bottom line thing 0:16:47.036 --> 0:16:52.396 to learn is that reality is real. Doesn't matter if 0:16:52.436 --> 0:16:56.516 the president stands it is electern and tries to proudbeat 0:16:56.956 --> 0:17:01.036 the microbe into submission. It could care less. And in 0:17:01.116 --> 0:17:05.556 a world where we've spent the last twenty thirty years 0:17:06.396 --> 0:17:11.116 ever more firmly entrenched behind our screens, where reality seems 0:17:11.236 --> 0:17:14.476 mutable and adaptable and easy to play with, and so 0:17:14.596 --> 0:17:17.396 on and so forth, this is a pretty good reminder 0:17:17.716 --> 0:17:22.036 that that's actually not how reality works. At some level. 0:17:22.076 --> 0:17:24.836 I'm very sympathetic to everything you've said. I see myself 0:17:24.836 --> 0:17:27.636 as a believer in science. I haven't been out in 0:17:27.676 --> 0:17:30.836 a bar, nor have I marched on the State House 0:17:30.996 --> 0:17:34.516 with my a R. Fifteen. That said, I think I 0:17:34.596 --> 0:17:38.476 might have some subtle philosophical difference with you with respect 0:17:38.516 --> 0:17:40.636 to how I think about the motivation of the people 0:17:40.636 --> 0:17:42.996 who did both of those kinds of things. I think, 0:17:42.996 --> 0:17:45.516 with respect to people who are going to a bar, 0:17:46.036 --> 0:17:51.796 they're expressing a fundamental human instinct, a towards sociality, towards 0:17:51.836 --> 0:17:57.196 being with other people, and be towards some desire to 0:17:58.196 --> 0:18:00.836 look straight in the face of something like corona and 0:18:00.876 --> 0:18:03.516 say it actually wouldn't be so bad if we individually 0:18:03.596 --> 0:18:05.796 got it. Then, with respect to the people who are 0:18:05.796 --> 0:18:09.956 you marching, sometimes even armed. They're expressing what I would 0:18:09.956 --> 0:18:13.916 call of the libertarian impulse that is distrustful of the 0:18:13.956 --> 0:18:17.396 way that power functions in the world that we have. 0:18:17.916 --> 0:18:20.196 And I see both of those impulses the kind of 0:18:20.236 --> 0:18:22.476 impulse to human sociality, and let's just all get the 0:18:22.516 --> 0:18:25.556 disease and the libertarian impulse to be distrustful of government 0:18:25.556 --> 0:18:30.516 authority as important ways of interpreting the world. Now, I 0:18:30.556 --> 0:18:32.516 agree with you that the laws of physics don't change 0:18:32.596 --> 0:18:34.956 based on what we would like them to be. But 0:18:35.076 --> 0:18:37.196 we're talking in all these cases about what we should 0:18:37.196 --> 0:18:39.516 be doing from the standpoint of policy, and their political 0:18:39.596 --> 0:18:42.436 judgment does come in. So the standing six feet apart 0:18:42.876 --> 0:18:45.636 isn't I don't think dictated by the virus. That's a 0:18:45.756 --> 0:18:49.676 regulatory response to how we should address the underlying question. 0:18:49.676 --> 0:18:52.796 And we could say, let's let everybody get this virus, 0:18:53.076 --> 0:18:55.156 and that we'll have terrible consequences for some people, and 0:18:55.156 --> 0:18:57.876 it might overcome our healthcare systems, it may lead to many, 0:18:57.876 --> 0:19:00.236 many deaths, but we make the judgment that we shouldn't 0:19:00.276 --> 0:19:01.996 do that. I mean those to me fall in the 0:19:01.996 --> 0:19:04.476 realm of human judgment, and I think that responses to 0:19:04.516 --> 0:19:08.316 climates similarly do I mean, we're talking about very complicated 0:19:08.316 --> 0:19:11.796 cost benefits, and although I happen to come down on 0:19:11.836 --> 0:19:15.036 your side of the coin, I do nevertheless see it 0:19:15.116 --> 0:19:20.356 as a realm of negotiation and discussion and cost benefit 0:19:20.476 --> 0:19:23.116 where we should do that in the shadow of real science. 0:19:23.916 --> 0:19:26.476 So on all kinds of counts, I agree with you, 0:19:26.956 --> 0:19:30.196 But I think the really interesting political question you raise 0:19:30.596 --> 0:19:35.196 is the one about kind of libertarian impulse. You and 0:19:35.236 --> 0:19:38.716 I have lived our lives in the shadow of Ronald Reagan, 0:19:39.556 --> 0:19:43.676 hence in the idea that markets solve all problems. That's 0:19:43.716 --> 0:19:47.116 been the most powerful impulse political impulse I think of 0:19:47.116 --> 0:19:51.756 our time on this planet, and I've been suspicious of 0:19:51.756 --> 0:19:53.756 it from the beginning for a lot of reasons, but 0:19:53.796 --> 0:19:57.356 I think those suspicions get more powerful all the time. 0:19:57.836 --> 0:20:01.876 Reagan's great laugh line, as you'll recall, was the nine 0:20:02.036 --> 0:20:04.916 scariest words in the English language are I'm from the 0:20:04.996 --> 0:20:08.156 government and I'm here to help. Well, I don't think 0:20:08.196 --> 0:20:11.716 those are words in the English language. I think the 0:20:11.796 --> 0:20:16.236 scariest words are we've run out of ventilators, the hillside 0:20:16.236 --> 0:20:19.436 behind your house is on fire, and those are not 0:20:20.156 --> 0:20:24.316 problems that you're capable of addressing. By trying to maximize 0:20:24.356 --> 0:20:27.516 your own wealth. Those are problems that you're capable of 0:20:27.556 --> 0:20:32.796 addressing when we come together to do things jointly. That's 0:20:32.916 --> 0:20:38.476 always been the interesting philosophical dilemma around climate change. The 0:20:38.596 --> 0:20:41.516 reason that the right had so much trouble dealing with 0:20:41.556 --> 0:20:44.196 it and has been forced to deny it really over 0:20:44.236 --> 0:20:47.316 and over again, is that there was, at least at 0:20:47.356 --> 0:20:50.436 this point, no real way to deal with it without 0:20:50.836 --> 0:20:55.156 strong joint action. I mean, I think the syllogism that 0:20:55.396 --> 0:21:01.396 formed in a lot of conservative minds over time was 0:21:02.796 --> 0:21:08.156 markets solve all problems. Markets aren't solving climate change. Therefore 0:21:08.236 --> 0:21:11.196 climate change is not a problem. That's not a very 0:21:11.196 --> 0:21:15.556 good syllogism, but it's emotionally comforting. If you spent the 0:21:15.636 --> 0:21:19.356 last thirty years, you know, marinating in Russia, Limbaugh, then 0:21:19.436 --> 0:21:22.516 it's an appealing idea and one that an awful lot 0:21:22.516 --> 0:21:25.916 of people stuck with, including the President in the United States. 0:21:26.396 --> 0:21:29.796 I want to ask you about the way people form 0:21:29.916 --> 0:21:35.036 their commitments to bake picture questions like climate change and 0:21:35.116 --> 0:21:38.396 its relationship to the political tribe that they belong to. 0:21:38.956 --> 0:21:41.676 I've been struck in recent conversations I've had with friends. 0:21:42.196 --> 0:21:45.596 There are people who are sort of left science skeptics. 0:21:45.876 --> 0:21:48.556 For example, they might be skeptical of vaccines. There are 0:21:48.556 --> 0:21:51.156 antivactors left and right, but there is a thing of 0:21:51.836 --> 0:21:54.436 skeptical of certain respects of science people on the left, 0:21:54.796 --> 0:21:57.916 and yet those same people tend to be very clear 0:21:58.196 --> 0:22:01.396 that climate change science is real, whereas on the right, 0:22:01.756 --> 0:22:04.516 I would expect a pretty close affiliation between people who 0:22:04.516 --> 0:22:08.116 are skeptical of science on say, vaccination, and are also 0:22:08.236 --> 0:22:10.916 very skeptical of climate change. So there's a kind of 0:22:11.036 --> 0:22:15.436 fascinating mismatch there. My working hypothesis, and I have no 0:22:15.476 --> 0:22:18.276 idea if there's anything to this about why that might be. So, 0:22:18.756 --> 0:22:22.636 is that people form their beliefs in this tribal way, 0:22:22.796 --> 0:22:26.516 almost in the way that they form religious beliefs. Well, 0:22:26.556 --> 0:22:28.996 I think that actually you have an interesting kind of 0:22:29.076 --> 0:22:33.636 natural experiment here with climate change about where the source 0:22:33.676 --> 0:22:36.316 of some of this all comes from. If you look 0:22:36.316 --> 0:22:40.436 at around the world, very very very few places, really 0:22:40.556 --> 0:22:44.556 none have this level of skepticism around climate change that 0:22:44.596 --> 0:22:47.036 we do here. It was really only in the US 0:22:47.036 --> 0:22:51.876 that climate denial became a serious thing. You know, look 0:22:51.916 --> 0:22:55.156 at conservative leaders and other parts of the world. Angelo 0:22:55.236 --> 0:23:00.676 mercal conservative and yet very powerful voice for action on 0:23:00.836 --> 0:23:03.636 climate change, and you can have a dozen different examples. 0:23:04.916 --> 0:23:08.396 I think that it's pretty clear in retrospect, thanks to 0:23:08.436 --> 0:23:12.116 a lot of great investigative reporting, what the source of 0:23:12.156 --> 0:23:15.796 that is. Thirty years ago we now know the fossil 0:23:15.836 --> 0:23:19.676 fuel industry knew everything there was to know about climate change. Exxon, 0:23:19.956 --> 0:23:23.076 biggest company in the world in the nineteen eighties, had 0:23:23.076 --> 0:23:26.156 a great scientific staff. Their product was carbon. Of course, 0:23:26.196 --> 0:23:28.796 they set out to understand it, and understand it they did. 0:23:29.276 --> 0:23:34.516 They've discovered in their archives graphs that show with unerring 0:23:34.556 --> 0:23:38.036 accuracy what the CO two concentration and temperature would be 0:23:38.076 --> 0:23:40.436 in twenty twenty. But of course what they didn't do 0:23:40.956 --> 0:23:44.196 was tell any of the rest of us. Instead, the 0:23:44.316 --> 0:23:48.236 industry spent a huge amount of money building the kind 0:23:48.276 --> 0:23:52.356 of architecture of deceit and denial and disinformation that kept 0:23:52.476 --> 0:23:55.636 us locked for thirty years in a totally phony debate 0:23:55.676 --> 0:23:58.876 about whether or not global warming was real, a debate 0:23:58.916 --> 0:24:01.436 that both sides knew the answer to at the beginning. 0:24:01.756 --> 0:24:04.316 It's just one of them was willing to lie. And 0:24:04.516 --> 0:24:07.476 when you're willing to lie in that way and poison 0:24:07.516 --> 0:24:10.276 the debate in that way, and when you have unlimited funds, 0:24:11.036 --> 0:24:13.716 when you're able to go hire everybody who told the 0:24:13.756 --> 0:24:16.356 same lie about the tobacco industry and put them to 0:24:16.396 --> 0:24:20.156 work in this new context, well you get things done. 0:24:20.636 --> 0:24:24.636 The Koch brothers, who are the biggest influences in our 0:24:24.676 --> 0:24:27.756 political system probably over the last twenty or thirty years, 0:24:27.996 --> 0:24:30.636 are also our biggest oil and gas parents. I mean, 0:24:30.756 --> 0:24:33.636 that's how they had the money to buy a political 0:24:33.716 --> 0:24:36.716 party and take physics and turn it into a part 0:24:36.756 --> 0:24:40.156 as an issue. So I think that it's worth always 0:24:40.556 --> 0:24:43.676 bearing that in mind, that we've been guided down this 0:24:43.876 --> 0:24:46.916 path by people who knew precisely what they were doing. 0:24:47.436 --> 0:24:50.356 So I just want to close by asking you, do 0:24:50.396 --> 0:24:54.036 you feel more optimistic about climate change than you did 0:24:54.156 --> 0:24:58.156