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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast podcast. All right,

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Speaker 1: here we go.

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Speaker 2: Spreading the corn ten seconds of maning, So just go

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Speaker 2: show me up to the basket.

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Speaker 3: Under the basket.

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Speaker 1: It's the true for the wind god Amerracle. I'm the

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Speaker 1: water hit that one from the parking lot.

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Speaker 4: What's up the generation? Welcome to the Big Bets on

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Speaker 4: Campus Podcast. This is the weekend college basketball betting preview.

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Speaker 4: I'm stucky, joining me as always my fellow BBC co hosts.

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Speaker 1: Mike Calbreys and Greg Wadell. A lot to get to.

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Speaker 4: As we do each and every Thursday, we will add

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Speaker 4: a futures wager to our pending portfolio, which I will

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Speaker 4: recap in just a moment. We will talk some good,

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Speaker 4: bad and ugly from the week that was. We will

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Speaker 4: check in with the one and only Tana McGrath fors

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Speaker 4: America East Minute is Saturday preview the America East Games,

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Speaker 4: and then we'll throw out some weekend looks that will

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Speaker 4: include Alabama Auburn in a battle of number one verse

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Speaker 4: number two, which should be a good one on Saturday.

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Speaker 4: So let's let's get right into Let's start with the

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Speaker 4: good and I'm gonna bring up I think We're going

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Speaker 4: to start to see this more and more in college

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Speaker 4: basketball going forward. In this new landscape is there there

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Speaker 4: will be certain teams that you know, every year, we're

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Speaker 4: gonna see so many teams start over right, brand new rosters,

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Speaker 4: transfer portal, just all of the froster movement that happens

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Speaker 4: now is it's just unprecedented. So you're gonna see some

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Speaker 4: teams that just haven't been able to figure it out

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Speaker 4: for the first two two and a half months of

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Speaker 4: this season that really then start to click, and I

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Speaker 4: think the market will just be slow to adjust to

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Speaker 4: some of these teams.

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Speaker 1: I'll throw out a couple that fit the mold that

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Speaker 1: I want to give credit to. Number one of the

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Speaker 1: obvious one is Kansas State.

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Speaker 4: I mean, Kansas State was an absolute disaster earlier this season.

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Speaker 4: This is a team that didn't know how to play

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Speaker 4: with each other. Late December, they get blown out by

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Speaker 4: Wichita State, and now, I mean this team is absolutely rolling.

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Speaker 4: I think over the past seven games, per Torvick, they're

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Speaker 4: number two in the country. I think if they go

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Speaker 4: five and two down the stretch, this is the team

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Speaker 4: that's getting into the tournament. We knew that had talent

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Speaker 4: they really just couldn't play together. Something was off. Well,

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Speaker 4: they figured it out. A couple other teams that threw

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Speaker 4: out there Robert Morris, which is basically they're basically just

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Speaker 4: like a new team. Since they lost to Detroit on

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Speaker 4: the I think January third, they've been the best team

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Speaker 4: in their league.

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Speaker 1: And it's the team. I think. They're ten and two.

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Speaker 4: They lost one game to I believe Wright State, but

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Speaker 4: they lost the buzzer. That was one of their only losses.

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Speaker 4: They just got revenge against Cleveland State. This team is

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Speaker 4: playing very good basketball, a team that was outside the

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Speaker 4: top three hundred last year, pretty much a full roster reset.

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Speaker 4: They're playing great basketball. And then Chattanooga, Chattanooga, who just

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Speaker 4: went to Stanford and one. I think they might be

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Speaker 4: the class of that league. Frank Champion, who's now healthy

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Speaker 4: D two transfer who's he didn't play earlier this season,

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Speaker 4: was a little banged up. He's now fully healthy. I

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Speaker 4: think he was a North North Georgia. But Chattanooga is

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Speaker 4: playing really good basketball and Champion has a lot.

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Speaker 1: To do with that.

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Speaker 4: The first two kind of fit the mold of what

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Speaker 4: I was referring to most but do want to give

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Speaker 4: credit to Chattanooga, who just went to Stamford and won

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Speaker 4: by fourteen.

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Speaker 1: It's a team that's playing really well since January ninth.

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Speaker 4: The only loss I have was to Samford, a loss

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Speaker 4: that they did evenge I thicked that the class of

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Speaker 4: that league. But Kansas State in particular, this team, the

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Speaker 4: turnaround is remarkable. I'm going to continue. I mentioned it

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Speaker 4: last week. I'm Ryan the wave. I'm probably going to

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Speaker 4: continue to ride the way that at BYU. We'll see

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Speaker 4: where the market opens up. But this team's playing like

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Speaker 4: a top ten team over the past month. Gregor, go

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Speaker 4: to you, what do you got?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's Valentine's Week. In Valentine's Day is always a

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Speaker 2: marriage saver, right or a relationship saver. If you mess up,

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Speaker 2: if you hurt your significant other, you can just make

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Speaker 2: it up to her, take her out to eat, you know,

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Speaker 2: buyer gift, be it the roses. It works, right. There's

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Speaker 2: a lot of coaches trying to earn favor with their

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Speaker 2: fan bases that actively want them out in Valentine's Week

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Speaker 2: by picking up shocking wins that nobody sees coming.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: There's levels to this, like Kyle Neptune beating Rick Patino

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Speaker 2: Villanova a win for a game that Calbarys was at

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Speaker 2: the other night isn't the most shocking thing we've ever seen.

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Speaker 2: But I'm impressed with what Villanova's doing right now. I

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Speaker 2: feel like they may backdoor their way into the tournament.

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Speaker 2: And as Mike mentioned before, we click record. Sounds like

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Speaker 2: the Villanova fans weren't all too happy about it, But

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Speaker 2: here we are. And then around the country, you look

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Speaker 2: around Mike Woodson on Tom Izzo's coronation night, He's supposed

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Speaker 2: to break Bobby Knight's record for most wins as a

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Speaker 2: Big Ten coach ever against Bobby Knight's old program at

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Speaker 2: the Breslin Center. I mean, the former players he flew

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Speaker 2: in for the weekend game were still there. They had

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Speaker 2: to stay two extra nights for this, and Mike Woodson

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Speaker 2: just throws out a junk two three zone and there

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Speaker 2: was no answer from tom Izzo's personnel. Just kind of

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Speaker 2: shocking to me. And even last night Fran McCaffrey, who

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Speaker 2: there's a lot of rumors this is it for him,

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Speaker 2: you know, he was emotional. They got to win at

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Speaker 2: Jersey Mike's and Piscataway against Rutgers Big comeback win. It

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Speaker 2: wasn't impressive performance, but he started crying in the interview

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Speaker 2: the Kats after the game. It's pretty clear the writing

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Speaker 2: is on the wall. It's just kind of funny. These

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Speaker 2: coaches who have had teams that have underperformed the last

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Speaker 2: couple of years right at the final buzzer are getting

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Speaker 2: some very meaningless wins. And it's a good reminder of

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Speaker 2: how random the sport of college basketball is. Even the

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Speaker 2: teams you think are left for debt can shock you

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Speaker 2: on any given night.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, last night showed me why I still.

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Speaker 4: Don't fully buy into Saint John's as a national title contender.

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Speaker 4: They're very good, but I mean Villanova matches up well.

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Speaker 4: You just go under everything, or you zone them, you

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Speaker 4: don't let them get to the rim.

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Speaker 1: You force them to shoot threes.

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Speaker 4: And they even made some threes last time, and they

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Speaker 4: made what nine or ten threes, which is very rare

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Speaker 4: for them. But and then on the other end, if

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Speaker 4: you can make threes, you can move the ball, make

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Speaker 4: these You're gonna have opportunities if you take care of

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Speaker 4: the ball. Now, still extremely dangerous defense, their spurret ability.

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Speaker 4: I mean they had a fourteen oh run in two minutes.

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Speaker 4: Because I they're making and they can set up their press,

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Speaker 4: they'll still be dangerous. Are well coached, but they're still

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Speaker 4: going to have those those scoring drafts, which I think

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Speaker 4: will bite them come March. But yeah, the Woodson win

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Speaker 4: at Michigan State was definitely shocking, to say the least.

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Speaker 4: Cal Bresee what do you got?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, being at the pavilion for starters opening, you know,

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Speaker 3: warm ups, they go through the players, Neptune gets booed

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Speaker 3: by his hometown crowd.

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Speaker 1: They end up with the upset.

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Speaker 3: The only coach that got a standing ovation was Vic Fangio.

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Speaker 3: He was baseline and everybody in the Philly area is

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Speaker 3: giving him, you know, a king's welcome. They're just giving hugs,

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Speaker 3: getting selfies with him. Neptune wins. I agree with Greg,

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Speaker 3: It's like they get back to their way into the tournament.

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Speaker 3: And then what does Villanova do? Because I think they're

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Speaker 3: in a perfect position. It's still a really good job.

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Speaker 3: There's an opportunity to turn things around quickly. In the

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Speaker 3: transfer portal era. They have a decent recruiting class already

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Speaker 3: on the on the line right now. If they get

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Speaker 3: the right coach, they get him in early maybe they

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Speaker 3: can build momentum, so they're kind of in this tricky position. Also,

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Speaker 3: I'll say this about k State stuck in terms of

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Speaker 3: this turnaround. Usually when you see a team all of

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Speaker 3: a sudden catch fire, it's because of three point variants

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Speaker 3: or they make it change defensively. Their top ten since

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Speaker 3: January twenty fourth in both offensive and defensive efficiency. So

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Speaker 3: as crazy as it is to go from seven to

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Speaker 3: eleven to potentially a tournament team, it seems to be justified.

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Speaker 3: They've just gotten so much better on both ends of

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Speaker 3: the floor. And this is an unsubstantiated little nugget. It

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Speaker 3: was on Twitter, but no team has ever started seven

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Speaker 3: and eleven in the sixty four team sixty eight team

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Speaker 3: era of March Madness and made it to the second weekend.

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Speaker 3: They are playing like a team that can absolutely make

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Speaker 3: a deep run in March because of their versatility on

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Speaker 3: both ends of the floor. The one other team I

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Speaker 3: wanted to bring to the table here is Memphis. I

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Speaker 3: know we give Penny plenty of a hard time in

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Speaker 3: terms of letdown games, but really they've been laser focused

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Speaker 3: in AAC and when you pair that with what they

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Speaker 3: did earlier in the year, wins against Yukon, at Clemson

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Speaker 3: against Old Miss all of a sudden, this seven to

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Speaker 3: zero run that they're on starts to look a little

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Speaker 3: bit more justified in terms of them being a team

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Speaker 3: to make it to the second weekend. They drilled UAB

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Speaker 3: by twenty three. I think that was one of the

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Speaker 3: most impressive wins under Penny in conference play since he's

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Speaker 3: taken over there in Memphis, and with the exception of

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Speaker 3: the race game that they were lucky to escape with

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Speaker 3: a three point win, They've just avoided the letdown on

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Speaker 3: the offensive end. They're closing in on being top fifty

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Speaker 3: on both ends of the floor in Ken Palm's efficiency rankings.

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Speaker 3: I can see them playing their way to a four

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Speaker 3: or five seed if this keeps up, and then can

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Speaker 3: they upset a team on the four line, let's say,

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Speaker 3: in the round of thirty two at Michigan State Kansas

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Speaker 3: at Saint John's. I just watched Saint John's struggle with

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Speaker 3: Kadari Richmond trying to facilitate playing a pseudo point guard position. Yes,

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Speaker 3: when he gets downhill, he can get to the rim,

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Speaker 3: he can pick up fouls. It's phenomenal what he's able

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Speaker 3: to do, but as him as a prier point guard,

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Speaker 3: I just don't see it, and they look disjointed in

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Speaker 3: the half court. So everything that we've kind of picked

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Speaker 3: apart on the Johnny's, I think it has been true.

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Speaker 3: And then finally on Memphis PJ. Haggerty, Tyre's high or

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Speaker 3: you know, when the threes are falling. I think they

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Speaker 3: can beat just about anybody in the country. So I'm

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Speaker 3: buying in on the Tigers right now. I was a

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Speaker 3: slow convert because I figured that they'd have those lapses

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Speaker 3: as they did in early January against Temple, but it

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Speaker 3: has it's been clear since then that they've been locked in.

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Speaker 1: So I'm in on Penny. Yeah. I by the way,

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Speaker 1: Phil Nova sneaks in.

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Speaker 4: I still think they're a dog to do but they'd

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Speaker 4: be an interesting team that could win a game or

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Speaker 4: two them and you have a guy like Dixon who

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Speaker 4: could take over a game and they're just gonna slow

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Speaker 4: the game down. And if their games are three point variants,

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Speaker 4: so like they could.

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Speaker 3: Someone out when Wuga plays like that like you did

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Speaker 3: last night, and because Dixon really didn't play well for

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Speaker 3: the first thirty minutes of that game and then it

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Speaker 3: was Wuga scoring I think like twenty five points. I

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Speaker 3: agree they have as much firepower as any other Bubble team. Certainly, Yeah,

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Speaker 3: they would be.

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Speaker 4: A dangerous They would be a team that I think.

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Speaker 4: You know, they don't have like Final four upside, but

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Speaker 4: they could. They could knock someone out, you know, win

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Speaker 4: a game, then knock someone out as an upset on

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Speaker 4: in the second game of a first weekend Memphis, I'm

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Speaker 4: still not there yet. They're too sloppy with the ball.

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Speaker 1: But they do.

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Speaker 4: They can play up. They still play up and play

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Speaker 4: down to everyone. They haven't been losing these games, but

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Speaker 4: they've been close. So like, Memphis has the talent to

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Speaker 4: play with anyone. But it's like, say there are three

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Speaker 4: or four seed they could get, They're probably gonna get

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Speaker 4: knock I would see them get knocked out by like

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Speaker 4: whoever the thirteen is. They're very matchup dependent to me,

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Speaker 4: But you have to give them credit that they haven't

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Speaker 4: been dropping these games in league play.

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Speaker 1: So let's move on to the bad.

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Speaker 2: Remember this is a safe space.

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Speaker 3: You know what pisses me off most of all?

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Speaker 1: Okay, baby, I'm rand why not? You've got to let

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Speaker 1: it out somehow. I'm gonna go to these ACC corpses.

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Speaker 4: I mean, does anyone want to get into the tournament

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Speaker 4: in the ACC besides Clemson, Louisville and Duke. I mean,

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Speaker 4: I guess we have to give credit to SMU for

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Speaker 4: winning games, but who is SMU they?

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Speaker 1: What's their best win?

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Speaker 4: I don't even Ella Pitt is Pitt their best win?

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Speaker 4: The Corpse have Pitt haven't been anybody all year? So

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Speaker 4: I mean, I guess they're benefiting from all these other teams.

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Speaker 4: But Wake Forest blowing that game at home to Florida State,

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Speaker 4: which might have put a fork in their chances. You

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Speaker 4: have a Stanford team that has now lost three or four.

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Speaker 4: You lose to wake at home, You lose against an

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Speaker 4: under man Georgia Tech team at North Carolina. I mean,

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Speaker 4: you catch Clemson in a dream spot, Yeah, Clemson coming

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Speaker 4: off triplet, then emotional win against Duke, get them a

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Speaker 4: quick turnaround on a Monday, playing for attorney lives, and

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Speaker 4: you lose by twenty. You've now lost five of seven overall.

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Speaker 4: And if you look at UNC schedule, yeah, I think

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Speaker 4: they went out. They and probably a favorite to get in,

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Speaker 4: but I mean they probably nobody up until Duke. They

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Speaker 4: got to be duke at home in the finale. Just

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Speaker 4: the ACC has been so disappointed, so disappointing. Now we

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Speaker 4: always see this every year, like the a recently the

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Speaker 4: AEC overperforms.

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Speaker 1: But it just gives me pause on to like, how

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Speaker 1: really good is Louisville.

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Speaker 4: I mean, yes, the Louisville is taking They are just

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Speaker 4: dominating these teams, which is outside of Jordia Tech, which

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Speaker 4: is a good sign. You have to give them credit

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Speaker 4: for that, but it just gives me pause because the

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Speaker 4: ACC has just been so much more disappointed than I

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Speaker 4: even thought they could be. And these teams are just

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Speaker 4: faltering down the stretch that were on the bubble. Greg

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Speaker 4: you got you take.

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Speaker 3: SMU lost money not to make the tournament. I saw

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Speaker 3: that floating around. I know they're minus one fifty five

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Speaker 3: to make it, but in the dual market I saw

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Speaker 3: plus one twenty five.

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Speaker 1: They don't. You're probably going to need an upset from

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Speaker 1: one of their.

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Speaker 3: Bad you know, upcoming games, they have a West coast

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Speaker 3: trip they play Callen Stanford.

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Speaker 1: If they lost one of those, they lose to Clemson.

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Speaker 3: Let's say they lose to Wake and then an early

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Speaker 3: exit from the a SEC tournament.

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Speaker 1: I think that's enough for them to get moved off

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Speaker 1: the line.

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Speaker 4: But I don't know these two them, like I think

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Speaker 4: they're like fifty slightly over fifty percent to get there.

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Speaker 1: So what was the number plus one twenty five for

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Speaker 1: them not to make it?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'd see a little value in there, but that's

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Speaker 4: that's not my specialty, Greg.

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Speaker 1: What do you got negative vice?

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Speaker 2: First off, Steve Forbes just does this every year, by

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Speaker 2: the way, he just drops one at home in late

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Speaker 2: February when they're like on the inside looking out of

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Speaker 2: the NA tournament picture. But I love your shout out

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Speaker 2: on the state of the Oh.

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Speaker 4: Wait, sorry, sorry I did't even mentioned Pitt. Yeah, I

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Speaker 4: mean Pitt has been They are corps. They are a

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Speaker 4: definition of a corpse. I feel like their last stand

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Speaker 4: was that UNC game, And I mean this is a

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Speaker 4: team that's they're probably the worst of the bunch, but yeah, go ahead.

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Speaker 2: North Carolina's like most definitely gonna do the schedule turnaround too.

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Speaker 2: Five of their next six or against teams outside the

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Speaker 2: Ken pomp Top one hundred, and they're undefeated against teams

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Speaker 2: outside the Ken Pom Top one hundred this year, So

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Speaker 2: like they're most definitely gonna win these games, and the

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Speaker 2: narrative is gonna be like, did Hubert save the season?

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Speaker 2: It's all gonna come down to the game against Duke

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Speaker 2: in Chapel Hill. I just can't wait. I wish we

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Speaker 2: could fast forward to it. But so I want to

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Speaker 2: take a similar approach to you, stuck. But I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: turn to a conference I think everyone thinks is good consensus,

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Speaker 2: and I have big suspicions here kind of goes against

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Speaker 2: what you said about this Kansas State turnaround. I have

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Speaker 2: a conspiracy theory that the Big twelve may just stink fellas.

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Speaker 2: And I know that this is not really something you're

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Speaker 2: supposed to say out loud, but I'd like to go

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Speaker 2: through some of these top teams, and I will be honest.

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Speaker 2: This Kansas State foe weird, the second best team in

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Speaker 2: the country is what got me doing a little digger,

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Speaker 2: deeping it deeper, digging into this. They that Arizona game

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Speaker 2: they win by three at home. Doug McDaniel goes crazy.

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Speaker 2: I'm a Doug guy from his days back at Michigan.

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Speaker 2: I'm happy for the guy. But they shout one for

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Speaker 2: nineteen from three in that game, and one and now

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Speaker 2: we're supposed to do this like massive impressive turnaround. No,

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Speaker 2: if Arizona had like any substance to them, I think

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Speaker 2: they should win a game against a Kansas State team

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Speaker 2: going one for nineteen from three. They couldn't do it

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Speaker 2: because Caleb Love was a disaster, which is known to

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Speaker 2: bite this team from time to time. But I just

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Speaker 2: go through these top teams in the Big Twelve. We've

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Speaker 2: alluded to Houston skepticism at points and Kansas skepticism at points,

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Speaker 2: and even when we're all the way in on Iowa State,

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Speaker 2: it feels like that's when they end up letting us down.

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Speaker 2: You go through the eight teams in the Big Twelve

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Speaker 2: that have a winning record in conference play right now, Houston, Arizona,

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Speaker 2: Texas Tech, Iowa State, Kansas, Baylor, BYU, and can State combined,

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Speaker 2: those eight teams are four and twelve outside of the

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Speaker 2: Big Twelve conference against top twenty five opponents. On kempum,

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Speaker 2: they have like zero quality wins. The one team that

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Speaker 2: has them is Kansas, and the analytics say Kansas is

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Speaker 2: pretty good, but your eyes would tell you otherwise because

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Speaker 2: that team hates each other. So like we can talk

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Speaker 2: ourselves into Houston because of how good that defense is.

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Speaker 2: They're clearly a level above everybody else here. Arizona and

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Speaker 2: Texas Tech have been nice turnarounds in conference play. Those

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Speaker 2: teams combined went zero to two each or own four

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Speaker 2: total against top twenty five opponents in the non con

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Speaker 2: Remember how bad Arizona was. They started the year four

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Speaker 2: and five. They couldn't beat anybody, And I think the

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Speaker 2: same way. Kansas State now looks like this team that's

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Speaker 2: peaking at the right time because they got to get

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Speaker 2: right against West Virginia and Oklahoma State at home before

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Speaker 2: playing some over valued teams in the market. I think

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Speaker 2: you could make the case that everybody in the Big

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Speaker 2: twelve is a little worse than we really want to

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Speaker 2: say out loud. So I think I'll be fading this

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Speaker 2: conference when we get to the NCAA tournament. Maybe that'll

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Speaker 2: come back to bite me. But I think it's miles

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Speaker 2: below a league like the SEC, and I think even

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Speaker 2: the Big Ten has more teams that I'd be willing

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Speaker 2: to buy in the postseason.

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Speaker 4: Right now, I respectfully disagree, but I can I see

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Speaker 4: your case. But I mean, in fairness, like Texas Tech. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: they lost to Texas a and m on a neutral

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Speaker 4: but they didn't have toppin.

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Speaker 1: It was hurt.

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Speaker 4: And he just went for what forty how many forty

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Speaker 4: one and fifteen last night against Arizona State and a thriller.

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Speaker 1: So Texas wasn't healthy.

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Speaker 2: You needed forty one from topping to beat Arizona State

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Speaker 2: without quaintance.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I was going to State did shoot

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Speaker 4: thirteen to twenty seven from three. To be fair, I

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Speaker 4: do worry about Texas Tech defense a little bit, but

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Speaker 4: I think that team's really good. I have him as

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Speaker 4: the top eight team in the country right now.

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Speaker 1: With I mean Topens a guy, they have shooters.

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Speaker 4: The emergence of Christian Anderson I think is huge as well.

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Speaker 1: I think that kid's going to be a stud and

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Speaker 1: top ends a guy who can take over the game.

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Speaker 4: I mean, they're they're usually going to win the three

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Speaker 4: point battle. They can go into top and for buckets.

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Speaker 4: He's a pro that can. They have a really good Backburt.

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Speaker 4: They're really well coach. I really like Texas Tech. Spoiler

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Speaker 4: Texas Tech to make the Final four is my future.

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Speaker 4: Just like last week, I don't really have anything new.

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Speaker 4: It's still seven to one out there. I make it

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Speaker 4: fair or five and a half to one. I don't

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Speaker 4: think they can win the national title. I don't think

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Speaker 4: that their defense is quite there, but they're fringe like

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Speaker 4: if you look at the metrics and what qualifies like

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Speaker 4: if you just go based on Kempom, you want to

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Speaker 4: be a top twenty offense, top thirty defense. Their friends there.

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Speaker 4: I think they're thirty eighth in defense, their top twenty five.

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Speaker 4: I think since January first. You gotta remember this team

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Speaker 4: wasn't healthy in a non conference. They dealt with some injuries,

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Speaker 4: and now with the emergence of Anderson, they are fully healthy.

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Speaker 4: I like the Red Raiders, but we'll get to that

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Speaker 4: in a sec. Calbary's what do you got in the negative?

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Speaker 1: Just quick on Marquette.

402
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Speaker 3: I know we've been banging on him for a couple

403
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Speaker 3: weeks now, but the thought was, all right, Cam Jones

404
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Speaker 3: is going to come out of the shooting slump.

405
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Speaker 1: Everything's going to be fine. It is not fine.

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Speaker 3: They are fifty eighth in Torvik since mid January, one

407
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Speaker 3: hundred and thirteenth in offensive efficiency. He pulled out of

408
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Speaker 3: you know this cold street. He had twenty two against

409
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Speaker 3: Yukon twenty seven against Creighton with six assists, and they

410
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Speaker 3: lost both of those games convincingly. Chase Ross has fallen

411
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Speaker 3: off of a cliff. They remained two three point dependent, which, yeah,

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Speaker 3: I think there's going to be some spots to grab

413
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Speaker 3: them if they're undervalued from you know, a spread perspective,

414
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Speaker 3: or to win outright as a dog. I'm not going

415
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Speaker 3: to write off Shoka smart in those spots, but firing

416
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Speaker 3: up nearly thirty triples per game when they're not falling,

417
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Speaker 3: and the offense, like Cam's doing everything he can. You know,

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Speaker 3: you watch ten minutes of their games. He can create

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Speaker 3: for himself, he can create open looks for other people.

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Speaker 1: This offense is.

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Speaker 3: Just not good enough to get through what they need

422
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Speaker 3: to get through in the Big East and then to

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Speaker 3: win multiple games in March, which is what we expected

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Speaker 3: out of them just six weeks ago. So I think

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Speaker 3: I've finally seen enough. I know that there was kind

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Speaker 3: of this wall that Cam had hit, but now that

427
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Speaker 3: I've seen him pull through that and it hasn't made

428
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Speaker 3: a huge difference. I think there's just structural flaws in

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Speaker 3: this lineup, and they're just they just don't have as

430
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Speaker 3: high a ceiling as they did last year when he

431
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Speaker 3: got to play off the ball in you know, long

432
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Speaker 3: stretches as opposed to needing to be everything for Shaka

433
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Speaker 3: this year. So I'm out on Marquette and it pains

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Speaker 3: me to say that because it was a team in

435
00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:47,240
Speaker 3: December that was really bullish on and I've watched a

436
00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:49,919
Speaker 3: lot of their games this season, but I'm just not

437
00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:50,760
Speaker 3: feeling it anymore.

438
00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:52,119
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm out of Marquette too.

439
00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:55,680
Speaker 4: I don't see it Cam Jones when he's on, it's

440
00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:58,320
Speaker 4: obviously one of the best cards in the country. I'll

441
00:21:58,320 --> 00:22:02,800
Speaker 4: be looking to hopeny fade them again at hopefully get

442
00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:07,200
Speaker 4: Villanova as a home dog again. I think next Friday,

443
00:22:07,640 --> 00:22:09,720
Speaker 4: all right, get any quick?

444
00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:13,000
Speaker 1: Are you out? You're still out on Markatt as well? Greg.

445
00:22:13,600 --> 00:22:16,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's so one dimensional and I don't trust the

446
00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:19,240
Speaker 2: role players. Ben gold Is. I think like two weeks ago,

447
00:22:19,320 --> 00:22:21,480
Speaker 2: I was like talking about his recent averages and it's

448
00:22:21,480 --> 00:22:22,399
Speaker 2: somehow gotten worse.

449
00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:23,280
Speaker 1: It's gross.

450
00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:26,480
Speaker 4: I didn't mention this for good but shout out. The

451
00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:28,840
Speaker 4: only thing that will make or break the bracket for me,

452
00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:32,719
Speaker 4: it's a successful bracket is if you see San Diego

453
00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:37,520
Speaker 4: is in and I spoiler alert, I will be playing

454
00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:41,679
Speaker 4: you see San Diego in the first round day profile

455
00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:44,639
Speaker 4: as a team that's that's gonna win two games, like

456
00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:47,639
Speaker 4: to a t. All right, let's get to the futures roundtable.

457
00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:52,280
Speaker 4: If you are new here joining us after football, welcome.

458
00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:56,359
Speaker 4: What we do each week is we'll each bring a

459
00:22:56,440 --> 00:23:01,800
Speaker 4: case for a future state, our case, and then we

460
00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:04,400
Speaker 4: all will vote, and you can't vote for your own.

461
00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:06,840
Speaker 4: It's tied, I'll break the tie. So far we have

462
00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:10,199
Speaker 4: Illinois to make the final four eight to one.

463
00:23:10,960 --> 00:23:11,480
Speaker 1: Don't mind that.

464
00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:13,719
Speaker 4: It looks like they've they've kind of turned the corner.

465
00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:16,480
Speaker 4: They went through a rough patch. I like some of

466
00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:20,080
Speaker 4: the lineup adjustments they were dealing with, you know, some illnesses,

467
00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:24,640
Speaker 4: some injuries, so I think that there it was good

468
00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:27,920
Speaker 4: for them to hit that kind of wall. We'll see

469
00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:30,159
Speaker 4: if they're they can avoid that freshman wall as we

470
00:23:30,200 --> 00:23:32,560
Speaker 4: approach March with some of their key players.

471
00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:34,800
Speaker 1: But it looks like kJ has.

472
00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:37,800
Speaker 4: His confidence back and they just need they just need

473
00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:39,080
Speaker 4: to be healthy, and I think they have a good

474
00:23:39,240 --> 00:23:40,840
Speaker 4: shot to make a run.

475
00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:43,119
Speaker 1: Brad Smith Wooden Award for some couch change.

476
00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:45,120
Speaker 4: I don't think that's gonna hit, but I didn't mind

477
00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:47,240
Speaker 4: that shot in the dark He's been incredible.

478
00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:49,600
Speaker 1: It would have been nice if he won that game

479
00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:50,720
Speaker 1: against Michigan.

480
00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:53,479
Speaker 2: Almost had the moment too. You have the buzzer beater attempt,

481
00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:56,720
Speaker 2: and yeah to breeze right before it so close, but

482
00:23:56,800 --> 00:23:57,600
Speaker 2: no Cigar there.

483
00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:02,359
Speaker 3: Every Cooper flag breakaway reverse slam just moves us further

484
00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:04,400
Speaker 3: away from anybody getting there.

485
00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:05,560
Speaker 2: And Broom came.

486
00:24:05,440 --> 00:24:06,680
Speaker 1: Back way earlier than we thought.

487
00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:10,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, text A and m final four, fifteen to one.

488
00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:15,840
Speaker 4: All they do, they just keep winning. They're gonna they

489
00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:18,680
Speaker 4: just they're just they just rock fights, they just play.

490
00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:21,960
Speaker 4: They're just gonna brawl. They're not going to be easy

491
00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:26,040
Speaker 4: to take out in the tournament. Iowa State National Championship.

492
00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:29,880
Speaker 4: I think that we've seen the I'm Chilovic back. Their

493
00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:33,800
Speaker 4: offense looks a lot better. And then Maryland Final four

494
00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:37,040
Speaker 4: from last week. What I would like to see from

495
00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:41,359
Speaker 4: Maryland because they're they're like, they're starting five, is final

496
00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:42,679
Speaker 4: four good?

497
00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:43,879
Speaker 1: Can they get?

498
00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:47,639
Speaker 4: Can they just get some production from the bench, just

499
00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:50,520
Speaker 4: a little bit more depth wise, But they're starting five,

500
00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:55,320
Speaker 4: it's going to be a problem for anybody come tournament time.

501
00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:58,439
Speaker 4: So we're gonna add one today. I already made my

502
00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:01,440
Speaker 4: case for Texas Tech Final four seven to one. Out there, Greg,

503
00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:02,119
Speaker 4: what do you got? All?

504
00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:02,440
Speaker 1: Right?

505
00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:05,960
Speaker 2: So I made my Big twelve feelings clear. I've got

506
00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:07,800
Speaker 2: to go elsewhere. I'm going to go to a conference

507
00:25:07,880 --> 00:25:10,560
Speaker 2: that I want some more action in. When we talk

508
00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:15,040
Speaker 2: March distribution here for the portfolio, I'll scoop up Alabama.

509
00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:17,879
Speaker 2: I see them at plus eight point fifty right now.

510
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:21,320
Speaker 2: That is double what you can get Duke and Auburn

511
00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:25,080
Speaker 2: at and I think Alabama pretty clearly looks like the

512
00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:28,560
Speaker 2: third one seed right now. We'll see maybe Houston separates

513
00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:30,920
Speaker 2: from the Big twelve and gets the fourth, but they're

514
00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:34,040
Speaker 2: valued minus two hundred to be a one seed. I

515
00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:36,439
Speaker 2: think timing of this bad adding into the portfolio right

516
00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:40,000
Speaker 2: now is good because Alabama has Auburn at home this weekend.

517
00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:42,520
Speaker 2: Now their schedule heats up. They've got some big games

518
00:25:42,520 --> 00:25:45,119
Speaker 2: in the final week. But if you like Alabama to

519
00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:47,040
Speaker 2: beat Auburn at home, they're going to be in first

520
00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:49,280
Speaker 2: place in the SEC. I think this number is going

521
00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:52,760
Speaker 2: to jump quite a bit here, and bottom line, to me,

522
00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:54,679
Speaker 2: they're one of the three or four teams i'd be

523
00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:56,760
Speaker 2: backing to win the ncit to ornament, I think they

524
00:25:56,800 --> 00:25:59,080
Speaker 2: have everything needed we saw them in the final four

525
00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:02,160
Speaker 2: last year. Upgrade to the front court. The shooting concerns

526
00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:05,240
Speaker 2: from November are basically gone right now. They've been hitting

527
00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:07,760
Speaker 2: double digit threes like three the last four games. I

528
00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:11,440
Speaker 2: believe Mark Sears looks like he shook off whatever confidence

529
00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:14,159
Speaker 2: the issues he had in the non con But I

530
00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:17,080
Speaker 2: still love Filon, I still love Aiden Holloway. Either one

531
00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:18,919
Speaker 2: of those guys can get hot and give you twenty

532
00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:21,199
Speaker 2: when needed. Kind of feels like they're the type of

533
00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:22,920
Speaker 2: team that has three or four guys that will pop

534
00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:24,800
Speaker 2: in and out in the tournament and it'll be a

535
00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:27,280
Speaker 2: different guy every single night. So at eight fifty, I

536
00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:31,040
Speaker 2: think the value is great. I don't put them like

537
00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:33,320
Speaker 2: double the odds of Auburn right now. I certainly don't

538
00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:35,720
Speaker 2: think that's the case. So give me the tie to

539
00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:36,639
Speaker 2: win the national title.

540
00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:41,640
Speaker 4: My concern would be there, is their defense good enough?

541
00:26:41,760 --> 00:26:44,919
Speaker 4: So their defense is much better than last year, and

542
00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:47,560
Speaker 4: that's credit to Natoates who went out gotta Moria. I

543
00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:50,359
Speaker 4: mean fastly, their defense finished outside the top one hundred

544
00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:55,200
Speaker 4: an adjusted efficiency, which is basically you have no chance

545
00:26:55,200 --> 00:26:58,600
Speaker 4: of winning the national title. And despite that, I mean,

546
00:26:58,760 --> 00:27:01,720
Speaker 4: this is a team that got to the Final four

547
00:27:02,359 --> 00:27:04,880
Speaker 4: before they got carved up by Connecticut.

548
00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:06,920
Speaker 1: This year they're much better.

549
00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:11,280
Speaker 4: They're fortieth, But that would mean in order to win

550
00:27:11,320 --> 00:27:15,959
Speaker 4: the national title, they would have to basically be twenty

551
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:20,520
Speaker 4: fourteen Yukon with Napier.

552
00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:25,720
Speaker 1: It would be an anomaly. But maybe it's if their

553
00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:26,520
Speaker 1: offense is that good.

554
00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:30,080
Speaker 4: If you're like a top one or two offense, then

555
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:36,160
Speaker 4: you can overcome some defensive efficiencies deficiencies, I should say,

556
00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:38,520
Speaker 4: So that would be my only concern. Is their defense

557
00:27:38,520 --> 00:27:44,240
Speaker 4: good enough? While improved, there are definitely still some holes there. Calibers,

558
00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:44,760
Speaker 4: what do you got?

559
00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:47,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll make this quick because I'm just going to

560
00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:49,800
Speaker 3: mention the team that I started in terms of being

561
00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:51,560
Speaker 3: a bright spot, which is Memphis.

562
00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:54,880
Speaker 1: I understand the turnovers, I understand their front court leaves

563
00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:57,480
Speaker 1: plenty to be desired in terms of what they're able

564
00:27:57,520 --> 00:28:00,000
Speaker 1: to do, particularly if Danger gets themself into foul trouble.

565
00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:04,560
Speaker 1: But they can catch fire with that backcourt, and I

566
00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:07,000
Speaker 1: like what Penny has done in the non conference. March

567
00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:09,040
Speaker 1: Madness is all about what are you're able to do

568
00:28:09,080 --> 00:28:11,720
Speaker 1: against teams outside of your league and for them to

569
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:14,600
Speaker 1: be thirty six to one to make the final four,

570
00:28:14,920 --> 00:28:18,840
Speaker 1: having had wins over Mizoo, convincingly Mississippi out of the

571
00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:22,480
Speaker 1: SEC as well, and then beating Yukon. I just see

572
00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:25,159
Speaker 1: them as a team that has the proper seasoning. I

573
00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:27,199
Speaker 1: don't know if Penny has really taken that much of

574
00:28:27,240 --> 00:28:29,880
Speaker 1: a step forward as a coach, but I'm at least

575
00:28:29,920 --> 00:28:34,439
Speaker 1: removing that tag of him underperforming at come February because

576
00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:36,640
Speaker 1: he hasn't lost yet here in the month of February.

577
00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:38,239
Speaker 1: So I think this is the last time we're going

578
00:28:38,280 --> 00:28:40,720
Speaker 1: to get a number north of thirty to one on

579
00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:42,920
Speaker 1: the Tigers, because they're going to continue to stack wins

580
00:28:43,040 --> 00:28:46,360
Speaker 1: in a really watered down to AAC. So I think

581
00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:48,720
Speaker 1: this is the right opportunity to add more of.

582
00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:51,479
Speaker 3: A longer shot to our portfolio and a team that

583
00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:54,280
Speaker 3: at least, you know, for a guard dominated tournament like

584
00:28:54,320 --> 00:28:57,680
Speaker 3: the Big Dance is Proctor and Haggarty. Haggerty, I think

585
00:28:57,680 --> 00:28:59,920
Speaker 3: really is one of those players that the average fan

586
00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:02,000
Speaker 3: has just not watched play all that much, and he

587
00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:05,080
Speaker 3: is just phenomenal coming from Soulsa, you know, having all

588
00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:07,239
Speaker 3: this promise and in a lot of games living up

589
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:09,600
Speaker 3: to it thus far this year. I think this is

590
00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:11,760
Speaker 3: an opportunity for him to take the main stage, and

591
00:29:11,800 --> 00:29:13,440
Speaker 3: if they can just get to the second weekend, I'd

592
00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:15,480
Speaker 3: love to be holding a ticket north of thirty to one.

593
00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:17,160
Speaker 1: So that's what I'm betting on them.

594
00:29:17,320 --> 00:29:19,680
Speaker 3: Playing their way to a three seed would be great,

595
00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:21,520
Speaker 3: but even a four seed I think puts them in

596
00:29:21,560 --> 00:29:23,480
Speaker 3: a good position to get that win in the round

597
00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:26,120
Speaker 3: of thirty two and then the hedge potential gets serious

598
00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:26,520
Speaker 3: from there.

599
00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:31,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, there's still some flaws with this team, but they

600
00:29:31,280 --> 00:29:33,480
Speaker 4: definitely have a lot of talent, and you could say, like, hey,

601
00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:36,640
Speaker 4: Hardaway's never got even to the second weekend. But you know,

602
00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:40,480
Speaker 4: they gave Goodzaga a fight when Gazaga was the one seed.

603
00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:42,560
Speaker 4: They kind of got some bad calls in that game

604
00:29:42,600 --> 00:29:46,000
Speaker 4: and they lost the two FAU in the game. Fau

605
00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:48,240
Speaker 4: ended up making a deep run. They probably should have

606
00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:50,280
Speaker 4: won that game. They got kind of robbed with some

607
00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:53,640
Speaker 4: calls in that game. I just they get crushed on

608
00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:56,600
Speaker 4: the offensive glass and they turn the ball over so much,

609
00:29:57,240 --> 00:30:03,440
Speaker 4: which just really scares me, especially in a first their

610
00:30:03,440 --> 00:30:07,480
Speaker 4: first matchup against like a game, what are they what

611
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:08,000
Speaker 4: are they gonna be?

612
00:30:08,040 --> 00:30:11,320
Speaker 1: A four? Four? Uh? Let me let me I.

613
00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:13,520
Speaker 3: Think right now, there but if you look at the

614
00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:16,600
Speaker 3: projection from tour bick what seed they're probably going to get.

615
00:30:16,760 --> 00:30:18,480
Speaker 3: I would imagine if they handle their business in the

616
00:30:18,520 --> 00:30:20,480
Speaker 3: AC Tournament, it's going to be a four. So there's

617
00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:22,840
Speaker 3: a lot of pesky thirteen teams that are really like that.

618
00:30:22,880 --> 00:30:25,640
Speaker 4: They scream they're losing their first game, that their their

619
00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:27,760
Speaker 4: profiles the team. That's that's what scares me. They could

620
00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:29,680
Speaker 4: play up to anyone. They could also lose to anybody.

621
00:30:29,920 --> 00:30:32,360
Speaker 2: Let me let me play Jerry real quick with Calvary's

622
00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:34,480
Speaker 2: on this, because I'm looking for any reason to not

623
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:37,800
Speaker 2: back a Big twelve team after my monologue earlier this episode.

624
00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:41,240
Speaker 2: Uh So, my concern with Memphis would be I hate

625
00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:45,600
Speaker 2: backing teams that end up quote unquote overseeded, like Memphis

626
00:30:45,640 --> 00:30:46,960
Speaker 2: is pretty clearly going to be on the four or

627
00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:50,680
Speaker 2: five line. Ken Palm would say this team shouldn't even

628
00:30:50,680 --> 00:30:53,320
Speaker 2: be in the NCAA tournament, Like they're two spots worse

629
00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:56,800
Speaker 2: than Arkansas right now. Like, how concerning is that the

630
00:30:56,840 --> 00:30:58,960
Speaker 2: analytics don't love this team even though they have the

631
00:30:59,000 --> 00:30:59,560
Speaker 2: great record.

632
00:31:00,720 --> 00:31:03,880
Speaker 3: Well, I think it's what's interesting because to Stuck's point,

633
00:31:04,040 --> 00:31:07,080
Speaker 3: there are three or four teams on the thirteen line,

634
00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:09,440
Speaker 3: or potentially, you know, they win their conference tournament. That

635
00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:12,320
Speaker 3: would terrify me. That ratchet up the defensive pressure and

636
00:31:12,320 --> 00:31:13,440
Speaker 3: force a lot of turnovers.

637
00:31:13,960 --> 00:31:16,960
Speaker 1: But that being said, give me you see San Diego

638
00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:19,040
Speaker 1: Gainst Memphis. Yeah, please no.

639
00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:22,600
Speaker 3: But that being said, this bet is predicated on can

640
00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:25,560
Speaker 3: you beat some good teams in the round of thirty two, sixty,

641
00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:27,080
Speaker 3: Sweet sixteen, and Elite eight.

642
00:31:27,600 --> 00:31:28,680
Speaker 1: That's the thing about it.

643
00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:30,200
Speaker 3: It's like, if they can get out of their own

644
00:31:30,240 --> 00:31:32,440
Speaker 3: way and just handle a game that they're favored by

645
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:35,280
Speaker 3: six or seven in the round of sixty four, they've

646
00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:39,000
Speaker 3: proven analytics aside, they played some big boys. They've played

647
00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:41,280
Speaker 3: and been able to not only win those games, would

648
00:31:41,280 --> 00:31:44,080
Speaker 3: have quit themselves decently well. In the losses. They do

649
00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:47,280
Speaker 3: not look like they're in deep water. And conversely, when

650
00:31:47,360 --> 00:31:50,360
Speaker 3: those guards get cooking, there's really no answers for these

651
00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:52,960
Speaker 3: other teams defensively other than let's kill them on the

652
00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:55,760
Speaker 3: offensive glass and hope that they turn it over fifteen times,

653
00:31:55,800 --> 00:31:58,320
Speaker 3: because either one of them could give you twenty five

654
00:31:58,400 --> 00:32:00,840
Speaker 3: or thirty points in a single game. So in terms

655
00:32:00,880 --> 00:32:04,240
Speaker 3: of just the upside, I think that's at least coming

656
00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:06,320
Speaker 3: off of what two weeks ago my Saint Mary's and

657
00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:08,960
Speaker 3: minus one sixty five to win the WCC. Trying to

658
00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:12,000
Speaker 3: go opo on this and give you something that has

659
00:32:12,040 --> 00:32:14,600
Speaker 3: the upside value, and I think the Tigers fit the bill.

660
00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:17,520
Speaker 3: You're only gonna get teams that are a little bit,

661
00:32:17,800 --> 00:32:19,760
Speaker 3: you know, high variants in a spot like this in

662
00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:21,920
Speaker 3: the thirty forty fifty to one range. But I think

663
00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:24,520
Speaker 3: in terms of overall talent plus stuck lakes to throw

664
00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:26,640
Speaker 3: out their NBA talent, I think one of these two

665
00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:28,440
Speaker 3: guards is going to end up in an NBA rotation

666
00:32:28,560 --> 00:32:30,440
Speaker 3: in a few years. So I think they fit the

667
00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:31,720
Speaker 3: bill in terms of the DNA.

668
00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:34,960
Speaker 4: In that regard, I will say my last point on

669
00:32:35,000 --> 00:32:38,000
Speaker 4: Texas Tech is that if you there's a chance they

670
00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:40,200
Speaker 4: get a one seed, right, I mean, coming up, they

671
00:32:40,200 --> 00:32:44,600
Speaker 4: have Oklahoma State, TCU West Virginia, they have Houston at home.

672
00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:48,520
Speaker 4: They already beat Houston, so they should win their next three,

673
00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:52,480
Speaker 4: and then you have Houston at home. If they sweep Houston,

674
00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:55,320
Speaker 4: I mean, do you have to put Texas Tech and

675
00:32:55,360 --> 00:32:56,840
Speaker 4: they take care of business the rest of their games.

676
00:32:56,840 --> 00:33:00,800
Speaker 4: They're only other hard game remaining is you know on paper.

677
00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:02,800
Speaker 4: I mean that Arizona State won't be easy on the road,

678
00:33:02,840 --> 00:33:06,880
Speaker 4: but at Kansas. But if they take care of business

679
00:33:06,880 --> 00:33:08,640
Speaker 4: and another games in sweep Houston and then win the

680
00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:11,760
Speaker 4: Big Twelve tournament, team's probably gonna get a one seed.

681
00:33:11,800 --> 00:33:16,080
Speaker 4: Because you could talk about Alabama, Florida and Tennessee, they

682
00:33:16,080 --> 00:33:17,880
Speaker 4: all can't win the SEC tournament and they all play

683
00:33:17,880 --> 00:33:20,800
Speaker 4: each other coming up here like they're gonna they're gonna

684
00:33:20,800 --> 00:33:23,400
Speaker 4: suffer losses. And then there's still Auburn who's going to

685
00:33:23,640 --> 00:33:25,840
Speaker 4: hand a couple hand out a couple of losses. So

686
00:33:25,960 --> 00:33:28,240
Speaker 4: like people keep talking about, like the SEC is gonna

687
00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:32,640
Speaker 4: get three one seeds, I don't see that happening. There's

688
00:33:33,000 --> 00:33:36,520
Speaker 4: there's just gonna be too much carnage between all the

689
00:33:36,560 --> 00:33:38,640
Speaker 4: other teams, and someone else is gonna emerge if it's

690
00:33:38,640 --> 00:33:42,280
Speaker 4: Taxa Tec that's so big, Because look, Greg, you could

691
00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:45,080
Speaker 4: hate on the Big Twelve right now. Any of these

692
00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:47,640
Speaker 4: top teams in the Big twelve can reach the final four.

693
00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:50,880
Speaker 4: I mean there are any top ten, top twenty team

694
00:33:51,000 --> 00:33:54,959
Speaker 4: really can because the bracket just needs to break right.

695
00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:59,560
Speaker 4: And part of that this year in particular, there is

696
00:33:59,600 --> 00:34:00,440
Speaker 4: a ton of parody.

697
00:34:00,440 --> 00:34:01,640
Speaker 1: But I think, you know, you.

698
00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:06,240
Speaker 4: Really do want to avoid Duke Auburn at the top.

699
00:34:06,280 --> 00:34:09,360
Speaker 4: If you have a one seed, you're avoiding those two teams.

700
00:34:09,719 --> 00:34:12,640
Speaker 4: So I think that there's like a twenty fifteen to

701
00:34:12,680 --> 00:34:16,120
Speaker 4: twenty percent chance that maybe I'm being a little optimistic,

702
00:34:16,160 --> 00:34:18,800
Speaker 4: Maybe it's like ten to fifteen percent chants that Texas

703
00:34:18,840 --> 00:34:22,359
Speaker 4: Tech could get the other one seed, which would be

704
00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:26,480
Speaker 4: just massive from a bracket perspective, but.

705
00:34:26,960 --> 00:34:31,360
Speaker 2: A lot of let me jury that so let me

706
00:34:31,520 --> 00:34:33,560
Speaker 2: so now I'm going to reverse jury stuck on this.

707
00:34:33,920 --> 00:34:35,520
Speaker 2: I love the point of how do we get a

708
00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:39,680
Speaker 2: team that avoids Auburn and Duke. I would argue Alabama's

709
00:34:39,719 --> 00:34:42,520
Speaker 2: nearly guaranteed to avoid Auburn and Duke whether or not

710
00:34:42,560 --> 00:34:44,160
Speaker 2: they get the one seed, They're not going to put

711
00:34:44,200 --> 00:34:47,920
Speaker 2: Alabama in Auburn's bracket. Maybe maybe Duke, but I'd be

712
00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:51,400
Speaker 2: shocked by that given how good that team is. Texas

713
00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:54,120
Speaker 2: Tech feels more like a coin flip there, And to

714
00:34:54,200 --> 00:34:57,719
Speaker 2: flip your your defensive concerns with Alabama stuck, can you

715
00:34:57,760 --> 00:35:00,520
Speaker 2: give me a reason you trust the Texas Tech defense

716
00:35:00,600 --> 00:35:04,320
Speaker 2: more than Alabama's. They're thirty eighth and adjusted defensive efficiency

717
00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:05,640
Speaker 2: that's pretty close to the cut line.

718
00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:08,480
Speaker 1: Coaching. I mean, I just I.

719
00:35:10,520 --> 00:35:14,160
Speaker 4: Trust McCaslin from a defensive perspective, and if you look

720
00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:17,319
Speaker 4: at their defensive metrics since the first of January, they're

721
00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:20,120
Speaker 4: coming off a game where Arizona State went bonkers, but

722
00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:22,800
Speaker 4: they're top twenty five, and like I mentioned, they weren't

723
00:35:23,080 --> 00:35:28,399
Speaker 4: healthy for their long stretches in the non conference and

724
00:35:29,320 --> 00:35:35,160
Speaker 4: their defense is actually better when Anderson's on the floor.

725
00:35:35,440 --> 00:35:38,399
Speaker 4: So I think that there's reasons to believe that their

726
00:35:38,440 --> 00:35:42,640
Speaker 4: defense is It's not an elite group, but I think

727
00:35:42,640 --> 00:35:45,600
Speaker 4: that by the time Marshall's around, they could They're going

728
00:35:45,680 --> 00:35:47,400
Speaker 4: to I think they're going to be a group I

729
00:35:47,400 --> 00:35:49,759
Speaker 4: would consider to be like a top thirty group. But

730
00:35:49,800 --> 00:35:51,759
Speaker 4: again I don't I don't need them to win the

731
00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:54,160
Speaker 4: national title. I think that's probably what would hold them back.

732
00:35:54,800 --> 00:35:57,800
Speaker 4: This is why I'm I'm going with final four instead

733
00:35:58,000 --> 00:36:01,439
Speaker 4: to the four. Okay, so we have a vote one

734
00:36:01,800 --> 00:36:09,480
Speaker 4: for Texas Tech, two for Alabama, three for Memphis, three

735
00:36:10,400 --> 00:36:15,680
Speaker 4: two one oh many have it.

736
00:36:17,160 --> 00:36:19,279
Speaker 1: I gotta break the tie, all right? What is greg?

737
00:36:19,320 --> 00:36:20,240
Speaker 1: What was your reasoning?

738
00:36:21,239 --> 00:36:24,680
Speaker 2: I like the long shot play. I feel like I've

739
00:36:24,719 --> 00:36:28,040
Speaker 2: tended to side with those in general here. I don't

740
00:36:28,160 --> 00:36:30,839
Speaker 2: think text numbers are going to change all that much

741
00:36:30,880 --> 00:36:33,120
Speaker 2: in the next week, and I know you'll bring Tech

742
00:36:33,200 --> 00:36:37,680
Speaker 2: back next week. Haggerty is fun to back. I'd rather

743
00:36:37,760 --> 00:36:39,040
Speaker 2: back that than Tech right now.

744
00:36:39,560 --> 00:36:41,560
Speaker 1: Calbary's do you have any input?

745
00:36:43,160 --> 00:36:47,399
Speaker 3: I mean, it's an interesting insight baseball reference from from

746
00:36:47,480 --> 00:36:49,920
Speaker 3: Greg here. You're gonna bring Tech next week, and I'm

747
00:36:50,400 --> 00:36:53,080
Speaker 3: I voted for Tech, I believe last week, so you're

748
00:36:53,080 --> 00:36:55,520
Speaker 3: gonna get my vote. Like either way, I think the

749
00:36:55,560 --> 00:36:59,720
Speaker 3: Red Raiders will hold up, and I don't know, perhaps

750
00:36:59,800 --> 00:37:02,080
Speaker 3: even the number gets better, Like I don't think that

751
00:37:02,120 --> 00:37:03,360
Speaker 3: they can achieve that one.

752
00:37:03,239 --> 00:37:05,040
Speaker 1: Seed, So in a way, I almost want them to lose.

753
00:37:05,120 --> 00:37:07,359
Speaker 3: Maybe just increase this by a couple points, and then

754
00:37:07,480 --> 00:37:09,360
Speaker 3: let's bang the drum later I.

755
00:37:09,360 --> 00:37:12,560
Speaker 2: Will say, stuck, there's a chance they lose one of

756
00:37:12,600 --> 00:37:14,520
Speaker 2: these two road games this week, and then the number

757
00:37:14,520 --> 00:37:17,520
Speaker 2: would certainly get better. I think that's closer to likely

758
00:37:17,600 --> 00:37:18,319
Speaker 2: than not likely.

759
00:37:18,560 --> 00:37:20,959
Speaker 4: Exactly a decision I normally would go with my own,

760
00:37:22,160 --> 00:37:25,400
Speaker 4: but let's go due to timing.

761
00:37:26,160 --> 00:37:28,000
Speaker 1: Let's go with Alabama and win the national title.

762
00:37:28,280 --> 00:37:33,360
Speaker 4: And it's our second horse, our main horse.

763
00:37:33,440 --> 00:37:37,560
Speaker 1: Now odds wise, they fight. They post Auburn on Saturday.

764
00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:41,799
Speaker 4: They win that game, odds probably improved and they're going

765
00:37:41,880 --> 00:37:44,240
Speaker 4: to be in a position for a one seed, which

766
00:37:44,280 --> 00:37:49,160
Speaker 4: is very big this year. So Alabama, Greg, I'll give

767
00:37:49,200 --> 00:37:50,680
Speaker 4: it to you. I won't put you through Big twelve

768
00:37:50,680 --> 00:37:55,080
Speaker 4: pain yet. If anyone's listening, I did bet Texas Tech

769
00:37:55,080 --> 00:37:58,960
Speaker 4: Final four today. Before we get to our weekend looks,

770
00:37:59,200 --> 00:38:01,560
Speaker 4: let's throw it to ten McGrath for his America He's minut.

771
00:38:08,880 --> 00:38:09,280
Speaker 2: Summer.

772
00:38:13,680 --> 00:38:16,440
Speaker 5: Thanks Stuck, and welcome back to the Amy Sminette hosted

773
00:38:16,440 --> 00:38:19,439
Speaker 5: by Yours truly standings. As we enter the sixth week

774
00:38:19,440 --> 00:38:21,879
Speaker 5: of America East Conference play, Brian is nine and one,

775
00:38:22,080 --> 00:38:24,840
Speaker 5: Main is eight and two, ROMNTUS six and three, Lowell, Albany,

776
00:38:24,880 --> 00:38:27,399
Speaker 5: Binghamton New Hampshire all have four wins. UNBC is three

777
00:38:27,440 --> 00:38:30,280
Speaker 5: and seven and NJT is two and eight. Big story

778
00:38:30,320 --> 00:38:33,520
Speaker 5: this week is that Bryant finally lost a game. Pinzone

779
00:38:33,560 --> 00:38:35,120
Speaker 5: went down in the second half of the Albany game

780
00:38:35,120 --> 00:38:38,280
Speaker 5: and the Brian offense immediately turned into the inefficient, spaceless

781
00:38:38,360 --> 00:38:40,800
Speaker 5: mush we saw for half of the non con Pinzone

782
00:38:40,800 --> 00:38:43,840
Speaker 5: is the most important player on that team. The offense

783
00:38:43,920 --> 00:38:46,880
Speaker 5: needs his spacing and shooting to be effective. He seems fine.

784
00:38:46,920 --> 00:38:49,360
Speaker 5: He dropped twenty seven and the win over Binghamton last Saturday,

785
00:38:49,560 --> 00:38:51,880
Speaker 5: but the loss did leave the door open for Maine

786
00:38:51,880 --> 00:38:54,280
Speaker 5: to claim maybe a share of the regular season title.

787
00:38:55,080 --> 00:38:57,800
Speaker 5: The UNBC heads to Bryant two pm on Saturday. Projected

788
00:38:57,840 --> 00:38:59,960
Speaker 5: line is Bryant minus eleven, one hundred and sixty seven

789
00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:03,080
Speaker 5: point total. I'll likely have nothing on this game. I

790
00:39:03,080 --> 00:39:05,720
Speaker 5: thought UNBC played great in the home matchup with Bryant.

791
00:39:05,880 --> 00:39:08,000
Speaker 5: They were really able to run their pace and space

792
00:39:08,080 --> 00:39:10,760
Speaker 5: downhill offense. They dribbled, drive to the rim at will,

793
00:39:11,000 --> 00:39:14,000
Speaker 5: and somehow avoided Bryant's shot swatting. The Bulldogs finished with

794
00:39:14,040 --> 00:39:18,000
Speaker 5: only two blocks. Unfortunately, UNBC has fallen off a cliff

795
00:39:18,040 --> 00:39:20,520
Speaker 5: because they are getting obliterated in the shot volume battle.

796
00:39:20,640 --> 00:39:24,440
Speaker 5: They're now negative ninety three shot volume differential and conference

797
00:39:24,480 --> 00:39:27,120
Speaker 5: season nearly double the second to last team in the league.

798
00:39:27,320 --> 00:39:31,719
Speaker 5: So unsurprisingly, the monstrously sized Bulldogs managed seventeen offensive rebounds,

799
00:39:31,920 --> 00:39:34,360
Speaker 5: twenty second chance points, and fifty paint points in the

800
00:39:34,400 --> 00:39:37,800
Speaker 5: six point road win. Timberlake also really broke down UNBC

801
00:39:38,000 --> 00:39:40,200
Speaker 5: zone in the second half with his high post playmaking.

802
00:39:40,520 --> 00:39:43,080
Speaker 5: I think they scored one point zero three points per

803
00:39:43,080 --> 00:39:44,920
Speaker 5: possession of the second half against the zone, and they

804
00:39:44,960 --> 00:39:47,600
Speaker 5: ended up generating thirty one points on just nineteen cuts,

805
00:39:47,760 --> 00:39:50,640
Speaker 5: which is how you beat a smaller zone. It's hard

806
00:39:50,640 --> 00:39:53,520
Speaker 5: to see how they don't do both. Again, that said,

807
00:39:53,680 --> 00:39:55,880
Speaker 5: eleven points is probably too many to lay with Bryant.

808
00:39:56,000 --> 00:39:58,160
Speaker 5: UNBC did miss eleven free throws in the first head

809
00:39:58,160 --> 00:39:59,960
Speaker 5: to head and they have plenty of chances to cover late.

810
00:40:00,440 --> 00:40:02,560
Speaker 5: If you want to bet this one, just take the over. Again,

811
00:40:02,600 --> 00:40:05,040
Speaker 5: these games are always high scoring. I probably won't, just

812
00:40:05,080 --> 00:40:08,040
Speaker 5: because Brian's transition defense really impressed me in the first matchup.

813
00:40:08,719 --> 00:40:11,440
Speaker 5: Second game, Lowell heads to New Hampshire at two pm.

814
00:40:11,560 --> 00:40:14,480
Speaker 5: Projected line is Lowell minus ten, one hundred and fifty points.

815
00:40:15,080 --> 00:40:17,400
Speaker 5: I lean Lowell here. I might end up betting that

816
00:40:17,680 --> 00:40:20,440
Speaker 5: the Wildcats swept last weekend. They've been a pleasant surprise

817
00:40:20,520 --> 00:40:22,840
Speaker 5: and conference play. I've been really impressed with David pos

818
00:40:22,840 --> 00:40:26,520
Speaker 5: Ayer's quiet impact in recent weeks. While Lowell has the

819
00:40:26,560 --> 00:40:29,560
Speaker 5: same problem that UNBC has in that they're getting roughed

820
00:40:29,600 --> 00:40:31,800
Speaker 5: up in the shot volume battle because they can't rebound

821
00:40:31,840 --> 00:40:34,919
Speaker 5: a basketball either way, New Hampshire has been a good

822
00:40:34,920 --> 00:40:37,279
Speaker 5: rebounding team, especially on the offensive end. And they hung

823
00:40:37,400 --> 00:40:39,520
Speaker 5: tough with Lowell for thirty minutes in the first head

824
00:40:39,520 --> 00:40:41,640
Speaker 5: to head meeting, even leading on the road in the

825
00:40:41,680 --> 00:40:43,880
Speaker 5: second half. But it wasn't really what they did on

826
00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:45,960
Speaker 5: the boards as much as it was them hucking up

827
00:40:46,000 --> 00:40:48,760
Speaker 5: threes and making forty percent of them. I mean, pieces

828
00:40:48,840 --> 00:40:51,759
Speaker 5: dropped thirty three in that matchup, But once the three

829
00:40:51,800 --> 00:40:55,799
Speaker 5: stopped falling, Lowell basically took over by brutalizing the rim,

830
00:40:55,880 --> 00:40:58,959
Speaker 5: as they're liable to do. They scored fifty two paint

831
00:40:58,960 --> 00:41:01,719
Speaker 5: points and shot fourteen for fifteen at the rim. They

832
00:41:01,719 --> 00:41:04,120
Speaker 5: scored at will in ball screens too, against a pretty

833
00:41:04,120 --> 00:41:06,839
Speaker 5: good New Hampshire ball screening coverage defense, which seems more

834
00:41:06,880 --> 00:41:10,319
Speaker 5: repeatable than what New Hampshire did, and Lowell really needs

835
00:41:10,320 --> 00:41:14,040
Speaker 5: to string together a few wins here. Binghamton heads to

836
00:41:14,160 --> 00:41:17,680
Speaker 5: NJIT three pm. Projected line is Binghamton minus two, one

837
00:41:17,760 --> 00:41:20,120
Speaker 5: hundred and thirty two points. Neither of these teams have

838
00:41:20,120 --> 00:41:23,240
Speaker 5: played each other yet, which is probably the final matchup

839
00:41:23,239 --> 00:41:26,960
Speaker 5: we'll get final first matchup. I think I like Binghamton here.

840
00:41:27,200 --> 00:41:29,800
Speaker 5: I think that two point projected line feels low. The

841
00:41:29,840 --> 00:41:32,479
Speaker 5: Bearcats have strung together a few victories lately, mainly because

842
00:41:32,480 --> 00:41:35,799
Speaker 5: they finally saw some positive shooting variants on defense. But

843
00:41:35,880 --> 00:41:37,960
Speaker 5: I do think their dribble defense is actually starting to

844
00:41:38,000 --> 00:41:40,399
Speaker 5: improve too. I thought they did a really good job

845
00:41:40,440 --> 00:41:43,240
Speaker 5: against Somerville and Co. When they beat Lowell last week,

846
00:41:43,520 --> 00:41:46,040
Speaker 5: and that's going to be really key against three Francis

847
00:41:46,040 --> 00:41:49,520
Speaker 5: and the ball screen centric Highlanders. Meanwhile, njt's rim defense

848
00:41:49,560 --> 00:41:52,399
Speaker 5: has actually not been that bad. It's been pretty good.

849
00:41:52,719 --> 00:41:55,360
Speaker 5: But they're not going to force turnovers against the turnover

850
00:41:55,440 --> 00:41:58,319
Speaker 5: prone point guardless Bearcats, and they won't get out in

851
00:41:58,360 --> 00:42:02,560
Speaker 5: transition to exploit the Bearcat leaky transition defense. And NJIT

852
00:42:02,719 --> 00:42:05,800
Speaker 5: can't stop fouling, which will let the downhill driving, foul

853
00:42:05,880 --> 00:42:08,440
Speaker 5: drawing Bearcats to live at the line. Nobody in the

854
00:42:08,520 --> 00:42:11,160
Speaker 5: league draws more fouls per game than Gavin Walsh, so

855
00:42:11,239 --> 00:42:14,080
Speaker 5: let's hope he eats here in a big win. Finally,

856
00:42:14,520 --> 00:42:17,640
Speaker 5: Vermont heads to Maine at three pm. The projected line

857
00:42:17,760 --> 00:42:20,160
Speaker 5: is main minus six, one hundred and twenty two point total,

858
00:42:20,600 --> 00:42:23,759
Speaker 5: and I think I just have to keep petting these

859
00:42:23,760 --> 00:42:27,080
Speaker 5: main unders even at these ridiculous numbers. I mean, five

860
00:42:27,120 --> 00:42:29,160
Speaker 5: of the last seven Black Bear games have stayed under

861
00:42:29,200 --> 00:42:32,520
Speaker 5: the closing total as they keep seeing that projected shooting regression.

862
00:42:33,040 --> 00:42:34,960
Speaker 5: I think I've bet every single one of these totals

863
00:42:35,160 --> 00:42:37,600
Speaker 5: and they're finally coming through because they're not hitting every three.

864
00:42:37,840 --> 00:42:39,520
Speaker 5: The first head to head matchup between these two was

865
00:42:39,520 --> 00:42:42,279
Speaker 5: played at a ridiculous fifty eight possession pace with one

866
00:42:42,360 --> 00:42:44,719
Speaker 5: hundred and four total points. And as I mentioned in

867
00:42:44,800 --> 00:42:48,280
Speaker 5: the last matchup, Vermont is still a good ball coverage

868
00:42:48,280 --> 00:42:51,200
Speaker 5: squad at the point of attack behind Shamir Bogues. That's

869
00:42:51,320 --> 00:42:55,000
Speaker 5: key against Mark Wooz ballscreen motion Main scored ten points

870
00:42:55,120 --> 00:42:57,600
Speaker 5: on sixteen perimeter ball screen sets in the first matchup.

871
00:42:57,760 --> 00:43:01,520
Speaker 5: That's point sixty two points per possession. And still Vermont's

872
00:43:01,520 --> 00:43:04,440
Speaker 5: offense is just so broken. Times and Clayton are the

873
00:43:04,440 --> 00:43:07,520
Speaker 5: perfect duo to stifle a perimeter oriented attack. You have

874
00:43:07,560 --> 00:43:09,719
Speaker 5: to exploit Maine at the rim, which Vermont won't do,

875
00:43:10,280 --> 00:43:12,799
Speaker 5: and you can just zone Vermont to death, which Chris

876
00:43:12,800 --> 00:43:15,480
Speaker 5: markwod is more than willing to do. Vermont scored just

877
00:43:15,520 --> 00:43:17,880
Speaker 5: thirty nine points on forty seven zone possessions in the

878
00:43:17,880 --> 00:43:21,000
Speaker 5: first matchup. That's er point eighty three points per possession.

879
00:43:21,480 --> 00:43:26,120
Speaker 5: So to recap, I Lean Lowell Lowell minus ten. Heading

880
00:43:26,120 --> 00:43:28,160
Speaker 5: to New Hampshire. I think I'm going to end up

881
00:43:28,160 --> 00:43:31,200
Speaker 5: on Binghamton minus two at n G And as always,

882
00:43:31,200 --> 00:43:34,520
Speaker 5: I'll be betting the Vermont at Maine under one twenty

883
00:43:34,680 --> 00:43:37,640
Speaker 5: or better, I guess. And thanks guys, see you next week.

884
00:43:37,960 --> 00:43:41,600
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922
00:45:46,080 --> 00:45:48,279
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go with I'm gonna kick things off with

923
00:45:48,360 --> 00:45:52,640
Speaker 4: an ugly one. I'm gonna go with Cincy against Iowa State.

924
00:45:52,680 --> 00:45:56,880
Speaker 4: I think we'll be catching a big number. And Cincinnati

925
00:45:56,960 --> 00:46:02,400
Speaker 4: has found something on offense, and it's mainly just Gisel

926
00:46:02,440 --> 00:46:04,560
Speaker 4: James is playing really well, but the rest of their

927
00:46:04,600 --> 00:46:10,279
Speaker 4: offense is starting to play with confidence. And I think

928
00:46:10,280 --> 00:46:15,640
Speaker 4: that they match up okay with Iowa State. They're not

929
00:46:15,680 --> 00:46:17,880
Speaker 4: going to foul, they can keep them out of transition,

930
00:46:18,080 --> 00:46:21,040
Speaker 4: They're not going to turn the ball over. Fighting for

931
00:46:21,080 --> 00:46:23,760
Speaker 4: their tournament lives. I think they can keep this game close.

932
00:46:24,440 --> 00:46:26,319
Speaker 4: So I'm going to look the back since a team

933
00:46:26,320 --> 00:46:29,840
Speaker 4: that has seemingly figured some things out on the offensive

934
00:46:29,920 --> 00:46:32,920
Speaker 4: end of the floor, they had no confidence on offense.

935
00:46:33,040 --> 00:46:37,320
Speaker 4: James had no confidence. He had lost everything just confidence wise.

936
00:46:37,320 --> 00:46:39,760
Speaker 4: But just watching them now, I mean what they've scored

937
00:46:40,360 --> 00:46:42,520
Speaker 4: eighty four, eighty five, and ninety three. I think in

938
00:46:42,560 --> 00:46:45,680
Speaker 4: their past three games. I think they found something there.

939
00:46:45,840 --> 00:46:48,640
Speaker 4: I think there will be some value in the Bearcats

940
00:46:48,680 --> 00:46:51,560
Speaker 4: on the road, So be looking for a nice, hopefully

941
00:46:51,600 --> 00:46:56,240
Speaker 4: double digit number with Cincy. Greg, what you got.

942
00:46:57,080 --> 00:46:59,920
Speaker 2: I'm going to go to my comfort zone here. Boys

943
00:47:00,080 --> 00:47:01,880
Speaker 2: going to start in the Big ten. And this is

944
00:47:01,960 --> 00:47:08,200
Speaker 2: the much anticipated Illinois Michigan State Cosparras Yakashonas revenge game.

945
00:47:08,239 --> 00:47:10,800
Speaker 2: If you remember the game at the Bresln Center last month,

946
00:47:11,280 --> 00:47:13,960
Speaker 2: he played eight minutes, he fouled out. Many of the

947
00:47:14,000 --> 00:47:18,480
Speaker 2: fouls were extremely controversial, and Illinois still almost won the game.

948
00:47:18,719 --> 00:47:21,520
Speaker 2: They shot five for twenty four from three and lost

949
00:47:21,560 --> 00:47:25,480
Speaker 2: by two. This was long before Michigan State's issue started

950
00:47:25,520 --> 00:47:27,719
Speaker 2: to rear their ugly heads. They've lost three to their

951
00:47:27,800 --> 00:47:31,520
Speaker 2: last four. They had such a backloaded schedule. I mean

952
00:47:31,560 --> 00:47:35,520
Speaker 2: that huge start for the Spartans was really largely schedule induced.

953
00:47:35,520 --> 00:47:37,880
Speaker 2: They played a bunch of non NCAA tournament teams, teams

954
00:47:37,880 --> 00:47:41,240
Speaker 2: that aren't even on the bubble, and they beat inferior teams.

955
00:47:41,239 --> 00:47:43,720
Speaker 2: They struggle against teams with more talent, as they showed

956
00:47:43,920 --> 00:47:46,400
Speaker 2: on the West Coast trip against UCLA and USC and

957
00:47:46,440 --> 00:47:49,440
Speaker 2: their losses. Even Indiana team that's very poorly coached but

958
00:47:49,960 --> 00:47:52,520
Speaker 2: has better players in the front court than Michigan State.

959
00:47:52,560 --> 00:47:55,480
Speaker 2: They had no answer for Umar Balo than form Elik renewed.

960
00:47:55,520 --> 00:47:57,359
Speaker 2: So I think this place is going to be jumping

961
00:47:57,400 --> 00:47:59,759
Speaker 2: at the State Farm Center. Consparrac Yacka. Shonas got his

962
00:48:00,360 --> 00:48:03,080
Speaker 2: off on his wrist two games ago. He's had twenty

963
00:48:03,080 --> 00:48:05,520
Speaker 2: four points in both the two games. Sense, he just

964
00:48:05,560 --> 00:48:08,560
Speaker 2: looks healthy right Underwood said health wasn't part of the issues.

965
00:48:08,760 --> 00:48:11,399
Speaker 2: I think it was. I think he's feeling better right now.

966
00:48:11,760 --> 00:48:14,360
Speaker 2: And as you mentioned earlier the show stock, Illinois shifted

967
00:48:14,360 --> 00:48:17,080
Speaker 2: their offensive identity quite a bit. They put Morez Johnson

968
00:48:17,120 --> 00:48:19,560
Speaker 2: in the starting lineup, They played two bigs. They are

969
00:48:19,600 --> 00:48:20,760
Speaker 2: relentless on the boards.

970
00:48:20,840 --> 00:48:21,120
Speaker 1: Now.

971
00:48:21,400 --> 00:48:24,560
Speaker 2: I think that's bad, bad, bad news for tom Izzo,

972
00:48:24,680 --> 00:48:27,960
Speaker 2: who is very quick to match two big lineups with

973
00:48:28,080 --> 00:48:30,680
Speaker 2: two bigs of his own. The problem is who his

974
00:48:30,760 --> 00:48:33,760
Speaker 2: two bigs are. Not his best players, Carson, Cooper, Shimone,

975
00:48:33,800 --> 00:48:37,360
Speaker 2: z Apolla, Jackson Cohler are the reason this team is

976
00:48:37,360 --> 00:48:41,360
Speaker 2: struggling in Big ten play now. They're a guard dependent team.

977
00:48:41,440 --> 00:48:43,960
Speaker 2: If they have to be forced into big lineups, they're

978
00:48:43,960 --> 00:48:46,399
Speaker 2: going to struggle big time on the road. Ken Pom

979
00:48:46,440 --> 00:48:49,160
Speaker 2: has Illinois by five. I believe here. I think this

980
00:48:49,200 --> 00:48:51,399
Speaker 2: could get up to five and a half, six seven even,

981
00:48:51,640 --> 00:48:53,560
Speaker 2: but I like Illinois to win by double digits.

982
00:48:54,840 --> 00:48:57,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, I would agree it's a great spot. Although I

983
00:48:57,520 --> 00:48:59,520
Speaker 4: wish come on is though you had you had to

984
00:48:59,520 --> 00:49:01,360
Speaker 4: lose that game the Indiana. It would have been a

985
00:49:01,400 --> 00:49:06,280
Speaker 4: lot better if they didn't didn't drop that game to Indiana,

986
00:49:06,360 --> 00:49:09,239
Speaker 4: just from a spot perspective and also from a potential

987
00:49:09,719 --> 00:49:17,319
Speaker 4: number perspective. But yeah, Illinois they do a decent enough

988
00:49:17,400 --> 00:49:19,880
Speaker 4: job of keeping teams out of transition as well, which

989
00:49:19,920 --> 00:49:24,839
Speaker 4: is a key against ANYZO team. By the way back

990
00:49:24,840 --> 00:49:27,920
Speaker 4: to Cincy, I always state once to get everything at

991
00:49:27,920 --> 00:49:31,239
Speaker 4: the rim or you know, in transition, since he doesn't

992
00:49:31,239 --> 00:49:33,640
Speaker 4: turn an over good transition date and since he you know,

993
00:49:33,920 --> 00:49:37,600
Speaker 4: very good Rim defense. So I actually like the matchup

994
00:49:37,680 --> 00:49:40,960
Speaker 4: for the Bearcats the more I dig into it. But yeah,

995
00:49:41,000 --> 00:49:43,839
Speaker 4: I'll always circle as well. Calvary's what do you got?

996
00:49:44,440 --> 00:49:47,720
Speaker 1: Let's start on Friday night in the IVY Princeton. Let's

997
00:49:47,760 --> 00:49:48,280
Speaker 1: just be honest.

998
00:49:48,320 --> 00:49:51,480
Speaker 3: They're the most talented team from a starting five perspective,

999
00:49:51,680 --> 00:49:54,120
Speaker 3: their top players on the floor, they beat this Brown

1000
00:49:54,120 --> 00:49:56,680
Speaker 3: team by twenty, but overall on the road they've just

1001
00:49:56,719 --> 00:49:59,400
Speaker 3: continued to struggle two and five against the closing number

1002
00:49:59,440 --> 00:50:03,040
Speaker 3: when they travel outside of Princeton. And this game the

1003
00:50:03,080 --> 00:50:05,719
Speaker 3: only real fly in the ointment is. As I mentioned,

1004
00:50:05,760 --> 00:50:07,440
Speaker 3: they beat the Bears by twenty in the first meeting,

1005
00:50:07,440 --> 00:50:10,080
Speaker 3: but Landon Lewis didn't play. He's back in this spot,

1006
00:50:10,120 --> 00:50:12,120
Speaker 3: but I think that has a big impact on this number,

1007
00:50:12,360 --> 00:50:14,840
Speaker 3: staying close to one possession. I'm seeing some of the

1008
00:50:14,880 --> 00:50:18,160
Speaker 3: projections three four. I played this up to five because

1009
00:50:18,600 --> 00:50:22,400
Speaker 3: while the Bears defense I think will be feistier their defense.

1010
00:50:22,760 --> 00:50:24,440
Speaker 3: I don't know how bad this can get, but I

1011
00:50:24,480 --> 00:50:27,480
Speaker 3: think Princeton could drop seventy five eighty points.

1012
00:50:27,120 --> 00:50:28,440
Speaker 1: On them in this spot.

1013
00:50:28,520 --> 00:50:30,239
Speaker 3: And also Brown has just not done a good job

1014
00:50:30,280 --> 00:50:32,880
Speaker 3: punching up against opponents throughout the season. I think this

1015
00:50:32,960 --> 00:50:36,040
Speaker 3: is potentially going to be Mike Martin's last season. He's

1016
00:50:36,040 --> 00:50:38,160
Speaker 3: had this job for a long time. This is going

1017
00:50:38,200 --> 00:50:40,719
Speaker 3: to be his third losing season in four years. In

1018
00:50:40,760 --> 00:50:43,279
Speaker 3: all likelihood, I think this is a team that is

1019
00:50:43,320 --> 00:50:46,040
Speaker 3: starting to nose dive a little bit. When you know, arguably,

1020
00:50:46,120 --> 00:50:48,799
Speaker 3: in terms of Lily and Lewis, they should have been

1021
00:50:49,000 --> 00:50:51,239
Speaker 3: a little bit closer to the top of the Ancient eight,

1022
00:50:51,440 --> 00:50:53,799
Speaker 3: but they are not there. I think Princeton gets right

1023
00:50:54,120 --> 00:50:57,160
Speaker 3: and wins this one comfortably, I'll say by ten points.

1024
00:50:57,200 --> 00:50:59,160
Speaker 3: Really one of their better performances on the road because

1025
00:50:59,160 --> 00:51:01,280
Speaker 3: when you look at this, at least from a coaching

1026
00:51:01,280 --> 00:51:03,640
Speaker 3: perspective and messaging, they only went by two at Penn,

1027
00:51:04,040 --> 00:51:06,719
Speaker 3: one at Dartmouth's four at Harvard. I don't think they're

1028
00:51:06,719 --> 00:51:09,000
Speaker 3: going to overlook a road trip, even though they'd be

1029
00:51:09,040 --> 00:51:11,840
Speaker 3: this team by twenty because they've just continually underperformed. So

1030
00:51:12,040 --> 00:51:13,680
Speaker 3: I think we're going to buy the dip on Princeton

1031
00:51:13,719 --> 00:51:15,160
Speaker 3: away from home and lay the four.

1032
00:51:15,960 --> 00:51:20,680
Speaker 4: I'll actually be looking for Princeton on Saturday against Yale

1033
00:51:21,120 --> 00:51:24,160
Speaker 4: the first meeting. I mean, if you go on chockquater,

1034
00:51:24,160 --> 00:51:25,879
Speaker 4: they should have won the game by twenty. I mean

1035
00:51:25,880 --> 00:51:31,080
Speaker 4: they shot I believe twenty five more threes then Yale,

1036
00:51:31,880 --> 00:51:37,120
Speaker 4: and they turned it over eight times less. And look,

1037
00:51:37,200 --> 00:51:41,319
Speaker 4: Yale just shot fifty seven percent from three. Princeton was

1038
00:51:41,360 --> 00:51:44,799
Speaker 4: fourteen to forty two from three. Lee had a lie

1039
00:51:44,880 --> 00:51:47,600
Speaker 4: and Pierce had horrendous games like they were even benched

1040
00:51:47,840 --> 00:51:51,000
Speaker 4: at one point. I think, look, Princeton, we talked about

1041
00:51:51,000 --> 00:51:52,960
Speaker 4: this in the first meeting, and they almost came back.

1042
00:51:52,960 --> 00:51:54,600
Speaker 4: They almost came all the way back from twenty down

1043
00:51:54,600 --> 00:51:58,239
Speaker 4: in the second half. But they can trade threes for twos.

1044
00:51:58,520 --> 00:52:01,640
Speaker 4: They can keep Yale off the offense of Glass. I

1045
00:52:01,680 --> 00:52:05,120
Speaker 4: know that Yells are much more efficient two point offense,

1046
00:52:05,800 --> 00:52:08,240
Speaker 4: but I even think they can win the turnover battles.

1047
00:52:09,320 --> 00:52:12,040
Speaker 4: I think from a shot valuing perspective, Frinston can win

1048
00:52:12,120 --> 00:52:14,719
Speaker 4: it and then trade threes for twos. I don't think

1049
00:52:14,800 --> 00:52:16,680
Speaker 4: Lee's gonna have as bad of a game as he

1050
00:52:16,719 --> 00:52:19,680
Speaker 4: did in the first beating. So I'll actually be looking

1051
00:52:19,680 --> 00:52:24,160
Speaker 4: for Princeton on Saturday, the piggyback off of you, Greg,

1052
00:52:24,200 --> 00:52:24,920
Speaker 4: What else you got?

1053
00:52:25,360 --> 00:52:28,560
Speaker 2: So I fear because I see our little rundown right now,

1054
00:52:28,600 --> 00:52:30,279
Speaker 2: and I fear that I might be going head to

1055
00:52:30,320 --> 00:52:32,719
Speaker 2: head with my good friend Mike Calabrese here in just

1056
00:52:32,760 --> 00:52:35,200
Speaker 2: a moment. But maybe this is a home field T

1057
00:52:35,360 --> 00:52:38,160
Speaker 2: shirt bet or something. We'll see. I got to put

1058
00:52:38,160 --> 00:52:42,239
Speaker 2: my Alabama money where my mouth is here. I love

1059
00:52:42,320 --> 00:52:46,880
Speaker 2: this team. I think that in the preseason most people

1060
00:52:46,960 --> 00:52:50,240
Speaker 2: would have told you that Alabama is better than Auburn.

1061
00:52:50,800 --> 00:52:54,360
Speaker 2: And they hit some hiccups, largely in the player's air festival,

1062
00:52:54,960 --> 00:52:58,520
Speaker 2: and Auburn was lights out for two months, and I

1063
00:52:58,560 --> 00:53:01,239
Speaker 2: feel like that narrative really fled. I think these teams

1064
00:53:01,280 --> 00:53:03,640
Speaker 2: are gonna split this year. This is the game to

1065
00:53:03,640 --> 00:53:07,880
Speaker 2: get Alabama if you go through this series, nineteen of

1066
00:53:07,920 --> 00:53:10,439
Speaker 2: the last twenty five games in Alabama, Auburn the home

1067
00:53:10,480 --> 00:53:14,000
Speaker 2: team has been victorious. That's played especially true in the

1068
00:53:14,080 --> 00:53:16,640
Speaker 2: Nate Oats era. I think he's four and one against

1069
00:53:16,680 --> 00:53:20,480
Speaker 2: Auburn at home. And you look at what has caused

1070
00:53:20,520 --> 00:53:23,640
Speaker 2: Auburn problems this year and their two losses, right, Duke

1071
00:53:23,800 --> 00:53:28,359
Speaker 2: and oh geez with Florida. Duke and Auburn or Duke

1072
00:53:28,400 --> 00:53:30,280
Speaker 2: and Florida are two of the best teams in the country.

1073
00:53:30,280 --> 00:53:34,319
Speaker 2: Clearly Alabama meets that metric as well. But you have

1074
00:53:34,400 --> 00:53:38,440
Speaker 2: to have positional size, you have to have relentless rim pressure,

1075
00:53:38,560 --> 00:53:40,480
Speaker 2: you have to be able to rebound your missus and

1076
00:53:40,520 --> 00:53:45,600
Speaker 2: General's huge. Yeah, and that's exactly what Alabama does. That's

1077
00:53:45,600 --> 00:53:49,160
Speaker 2: how Florida beat this team. Condon was fantastic down low

1078
00:53:49,600 --> 00:53:52,040
Speaker 2: and I just think Alabama has the horses to do that.

1079
00:53:52,880 --> 00:53:55,920
Speaker 2: And now, to use a little Mike Calibriss winky face

1080
00:53:55,960 --> 00:53:58,279
Speaker 2: special here, you love this. I hear it all the

1081
00:53:58,320 --> 00:54:02,640
Speaker 2: time for you on this show. MEA's opponent adjust ranking.

1082
00:54:03,000 --> 00:54:06,720
Speaker 2: Alabama is third out of the top twenty five teams

1083
00:54:06,760 --> 00:54:09,440
Speaker 2: in the country. They play up to their big competition

1084
00:54:09,560 --> 00:54:13,040
Speaker 2: games Auburn is right around neutral in the metric. They're

1085
00:54:13,400 --> 00:54:15,839
Speaker 2: they're fine. They've had some stinkers against good teams. They've

1086
00:54:15,840 --> 00:54:17,960
Speaker 2: had some good games against good teams. But I think

1087
00:54:17,960 --> 00:54:20,560
Speaker 2: this place is going to be rocking. It's likely a split.

1088
00:54:20,600 --> 00:54:22,319
Speaker 2: But this is the game to get Alabama. So I

1089
00:54:22,360 --> 00:54:23,200
Speaker 2: got tied to cover.

1090
00:54:23,600 --> 00:54:28,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is this is a game where having Amoreer

1091
00:54:29,160 --> 00:54:31,160
Speaker 4: could really help them.

1092
00:54:31,239 --> 00:54:34,879
Speaker 1: But I tend to think Alabama's gonna win as well.

1093
00:54:35,080 --> 00:54:39,400
Speaker 4: Now, three point variants will probably have a say if

1094
00:54:39,440 --> 00:54:41,759
Speaker 4: Alabama is like red hot like they were. There are

1095
00:54:41,800 --> 00:54:46,239
Speaker 4: games where Alabama, and for our future, you just hope

1096
00:54:46,280 --> 00:54:49,400
Speaker 4: that these come in like the final four in the

1097
00:54:49,400 --> 00:54:51,960
Speaker 4: Elite eight against like elite competition. But there are games

1098
00:54:52,000 --> 00:54:55,919
Speaker 4: where Alabama and they shoot like sixteen to twenty nine

1099
00:54:55,960 --> 00:54:58,960
Speaker 4: from three, they're unbeatable, all right, Like that just happened

1100
00:54:58,960 --> 00:55:01,759
Speaker 4: against Texas and you just have no chance. Again, they're

1101
00:55:01,760 --> 00:55:04,359
Speaker 4: gonn put up one hundred plus. So if they do that,

1102
00:55:04,440 --> 00:55:07,840
Speaker 4: I think they went by double legits. If they're way

1103
00:55:07,840 --> 00:55:10,720
Speaker 4: off and they just have one of those stinker knights,

1104
00:55:10,880 --> 00:55:14,480
Speaker 4: they can still win this game with offensive rebounds and

1105
00:55:14,640 --> 00:55:18,919
Speaker 4: other avenues. But the three point in these big games

1106
00:55:18,960 --> 00:55:22,120
Speaker 4: a three pointer and how Abama shoots obviously is always

1107
00:55:22,120 --> 00:55:22,879
Speaker 4: gonna have a big say.

1108
00:55:23,000 --> 00:55:26,920
Speaker 1: I think the Tide get it done. Calvary's you disagree, I'm.

1109
00:55:26,760 --> 00:55:29,040
Speaker 3: Going to go Auburn, and I think the big reason

1110
00:55:29,080 --> 00:55:31,759
Speaker 3: for it is I have this feeling that Oates is

1111
00:55:31,800 --> 00:55:34,400
Speaker 3: going to go five out and try to bomb away

1112
00:55:34,760 --> 00:55:39,239
Speaker 3: and take the big cliff off the court for long stretches.

1113
00:55:39,280 --> 00:55:42,120
Speaker 3: So that essentially what Alburn's able to do, all their

1114
00:55:42,120 --> 00:55:44,160
Speaker 3: block rate and the way that they defend the rim

1115
00:55:44,520 --> 00:55:46,680
Speaker 3: kind of negate that and put all those eggs in

1116
00:55:46,680 --> 00:55:49,080
Speaker 3: the three point basket. Because I mean, this isn't a

1117
00:55:49,120 --> 00:55:50,600
Speaker 3: cop out. I'm putting my money where.

1118
00:55:50,400 --> 00:55:50,840
Speaker 1: My mouth is.

1119
00:55:50,880 --> 00:55:52,919
Speaker 3: I'll give you the home field bet whatever you want.

1120
00:55:53,120 --> 00:55:55,520
Speaker 3: In terms of a T shirt, I think Alburn wins

1121
00:55:55,560 --> 00:55:59,440
Speaker 3: this game. However, if Alabama decides to play that perimeter

1122
00:55:59,640 --> 00:56:02,960
Speaker 3: focus attack, they could win this game by twenty points

1123
00:56:02,960 --> 00:56:05,200
Speaker 3: and I wouldn't be shocks because, as Stuck said, you

1124
00:56:05,239 --> 00:56:07,160
Speaker 3: know they could bomb in sixteen threes. I've seen them

1125
00:56:07,239 --> 00:56:09,080
Speaker 3: do it on their way to the Final Four. I've

1126
00:56:09,080 --> 00:56:12,280
Speaker 3: seen them do it in big spots time and time again. Also,

1127
00:56:12,440 --> 00:56:15,239
Speaker 3: this is just what modern college basketball is. If they

1128
00:56:15,400 --> 00:56:19,399
Speaker 3: start two for seventeen or something from three, and they

1129
00:56:19,400 --> 00:56:22,400
Speaker 3: have to, you know, essentially bring the fight to Auburn

1130
00:56:22,440 --> 00:56:24,440
Speaker 3: in the half court and run some stuff into the

1131
00:56:24,480 --> 00:56:28,120
Speaker 3: low post and not necessarily have those offensive rebound opportunities

1132
00:56:28,200 --> 00:56:31,560
Speaker 3: those long misses instead being you know, shooting inside of

1133
00:56:31,560 --> 00:56:33,439
Speaker 3: the arc and trying to feed the post and get

1134
00:56:33,480 --> 00:56:35,239
Speaker 3: to the rim. Then all of a sudden, I think

1135
00:56:35,239 --> 00:56:37,560
Speaker 3: Auburn is in a real power position, and on the

1136
00:56:37,560 --> 00:56:40,200
Speaker 3: offensive end, I just think that the Tigers are far

1137
00:56:40,320 --> 00:56:42,920
Speaker 3: more multiversatile in terms of how they can beat you.

1138
00:56:43,360 --> 00:56:46,280
Speaker 3: If the threes are falling, that's fantastic, but they still

1139
00:56:46,320 --> 00:56:49,520
Speaker 3: have post opportunities with Broom, they still have an opportunity

1140
00:56:49,960 --> 00:56:53,000
Speaker 3: with multiple guards, including Pettiford coming off the bench to

1141
00:56:53,040 --> 00:56:55,120
Speaker 3: be someone who's instant offense, who can beat you off

1142
00:56:55,160 --> 00:56:57,200
Speaker 3: the dribble, get people in theo foul trouble, and that's

1143
00:56:57,200 --> 00:56:59,640
Speaker 3: the last piece of it. I think Sears, how many

1144
00:56:59,680 --> 00:57:02,759
Speaker 3: fouls he draws will tell the story of this game,

1145
00:57:02,960 --> 00:57:05,360
Speaker 3: because he can get downhill and he can draw fouls,

1146
00:57:05,520 --> 00:57:07,560
Speaker 3: and if he gets someone like Broom and foul trouble,

1147
00:57:07,800 --> 00:57:09,480
Speaker 3: or if he gets you know, a few of their guards,

1148
00:57:09,480 --> 00:57:11,759
Speaker 3: and it throws off their rotation in foul trouble. I

1149
00:57:11,800 --> 00:57:13,960
Speaker 3: think that's a huge advantage. It's something that I know

1150
00:57:14,000 --> 00:57:17,280
Speaker 3: it frustrates Alabama fans sometimes he's a dribble drive guy

1151
00:57:17,320 --> 00:57:19,640
Speaker 3: to a fault, But I think in this game that's

1152
00:57:19,680 --> 00:57:22,240
Speaker 3: really the whistle is going to be a huge impact

1153
00:57:22,440 --> 00:57:24,400
Speaker 3: on who ends up winning it. But I'm going to

1154
00:57:24,440 --> 00:57:26,080
Speaker 3: put my money while my mouth is. As I said,

1155
00:57:26,200 --> 00:57:29,640
Speaker 3: Auburn gets it done and really kind of resets the

1156
00:57:29,680 --> 00:57:32,640
Speaker 3: packing order in the SEC. I'm going by the numbers.

1157
00:57:32,720 --> 00:57:36,640
Speaker 3: Ken Palm says this historically good Auburn team, historically good

1158
00:57:36,640 --> 00:57:40,200
Speaker 3: team that profiles to a national champion in the last

1159
00:57:40,200 --> 00:57:43,000
Speaker 3: ten years. Wears Alabama profiles to more of a boomer

1160
00:57:43,040 --> 00:57:46,320
Speaker 3: Bus team in terms of their top their high end

1161
00:57:46,360 --> 00:57:48,640
Speaker 3: being national title caliber. But I can see them shooting

1162
00:57:48,640 --> 00:57:50,160
Speaker 3: their way out of this game, so I'm going to

1163
00:57:50,200 --> 00:57:50,760
Speaker 3: stick to that.

1164
00:57:50,960 --> 00:57:51,400
Speaker 2: We'll see.

1165
00:57:51,440 --> 00:57:53,720
Speaker 3: I could have egg on my face by halftime when

1166
00:57:53,760 --> 00:57:55,919
Speaker 3: they're up by fifteen points because the threes are falling.

1167
00:57:56,040 --> 00:57:58,320
Speaker 1: But that's just my take on this one.

1168
00:57:58,680 --> 00:58:00,840
Speaker 4: I think you will get points. I think Alabama is

1169
00:58:00,840 --> 00:58:03,280
Speaker 4: going to be a favorite, or at least close a favorite.

1170
00:58:03,280 --> 00:58:05,080
Speaker 4: No line now, as we record this.

1171
00:58:06,240 --> 00:58:08,840
Speaker 2: Let's let's formalize it. Bet you want to do the

1172
00:58:08,840 --> 00:58:09,720
Speaker 2: home field T shirt?

1173
00:58:09,720 --> 00:58:11,000
Speaker 1: Bet? I would love it.

1174
00:58:11,080 --> 00:58:13,320
Speaker 3: I have I don't have any War Eagle stuff in

1175
00:58:13,360 --> 00:58:15,680
Speaker 3: my wardrobe right now. I gifted them away the last

1176
00:58:15,680 --> 00:58:17,400
Speaker 3: time I was on the plane, So be happy to

1177
00:58:17,440 --> 00:58:19,000
Speaker 3: take some home field stuff off your hands.

1178
00:58:19,160 --> 00:58:19,720
Speaker 2: Let's do it.

1179
00:58:20,840 --> 00:58:25,640
Speaker 4: I want to Greg, we both agree on Texas against Kentucky.

1180
00:58:26,080 --> 00:58:27,960
Speaker 4: I'll add on to what you say. But just Edan,

1181
00:58:27,960 --> 00:58:30,280
Speaker 4: it's a great spot that Texas has lost three straight

1182
00:58:30,320 --> 00:58:32,840
Speaker 4: and their most recent Alabama. Alabama was right hot from three.

1183
00:58:32,840 --> 00:58:34,919
Speaker 4: There's nothing you can do in that game. Kentucky coming

1184
00:58:34,960 --> 00:58:38,000
Speaker 4: off that big, huge win over Tennessee when Tennessee just

1185
00:58:38,000 --> 00:58:42,760
Speaker 4: couldn't hit a shot. Kentucky's defense on especially on the road,

1186
00:58:42,800 --> 00:58:46,160
Speaker 4: I still don't trust. They're basically right around three hundredth

1187
00:58:46,160 --> 00:58:49,320
Speaker 4: and two point defense, but they're still top twenty against

1188
00:58:49,320 --> 00:58:51,480
Speaker 4: the three. That's not going to last. They're outside the

1189
00:58:51,480 --> 00:58:54,840
Speaker 4: top three hundred volume allowed from the three point line.

1190
00:58:56,000 --> 00:58:59,000
Speaker 4: Since January first, Texas is shooting just thirty percent from

1191
00:58:59,040 --> 00:59:03,200
Speaker 4: three at home oon it's forty three percent. Kentucky great

1192
00:59:03,200 --> 00:59:06,840
Speaker 4: shooting team, but they're shooting forty two over forty two percent,

1193
00:59:06,840 --> 00:59:09,880
Speaker 4: and SEC play seems pretty unsustainable. I think this is

1194
00:59:09,920 --> 00:59:14,640
Speaker 4: a game where you get some positive regression from Texas

1195
00:59:14,720 --> 00:59:17,880
Speaker 4: and Kentucky won't hurt them on the offensive glass Texas

1196
00:59:17,880 --> 00:59:22,400
Speaker 4: can keep Kentucky out of transition, and Texas played the

1197
00:59:22,440 --> 00:59:26,920
Speaker 4: most difficult SEC schedule to date. And most importantly, Kentucky's

1198
00:59:26,960 --> 00:59:29,160
Speaker 4: not fully healthy. We don't know if Butler will go.

1199
00:59:29,160 --> 00:59:30,960
Speaker 4: We don't know if Robinson will go. I think it's

1200
00:59:30,960 --> 00:59:32,600
Speaker 4: a great spot for Texas. You had anything you want

1201
00:59:32,560 --> 00:59:33,320
Speaker 4: to add on, Greg.

1202
00:59:33,480 --> 00:59:35,720
Speaker 2: You covered the spot stuck. I'm going to say something

1203
00:59:35,760 --> 00:59:38,960
Speaker 2: that might give me banned in the entire state, So

1204
00:59:39,320 --> 00:59:42,680
Speaker 2: please tell all your Kentucky residents not to hate me

1205
00:59:42,720 --> 00:59:46,400
Speaker 2: for this. This Kentucky team reminds me so much of

1206
00:59:46,760 --> 00:59:50,680
Speaker 2: the fun good Fran McCaffrey teams through the last two years, which,

1207
00:59:50,920 --> 00:59:53,480
Speaker 2: by the way, if you look at like similar efficiency profiles,

1208
00:59:53,520 --> 00:59:57,120
Speaker 2: that three of the top ten teams are Fran McCaffrey

1209
00:59:57,160 --> 01:00:00,280
Speaker 2: Iowa teams, and I mean historically I would love to

1210
01:00:00,320 --> 01:00:03,240
Speaker 2: fade those Iowa teams anytime they go on the road.

1211
01:00:04,120 --> 01:00:07,240
Speaker 2: This team hasn't created any separation against anybody on the

1212
01:00:07,320 --> 01:00:10,160
Speaker 2: road this season. They definitely have a big game element

1213
01:00:10,200 --> 01:00:12,760
Speaker 2: to them, especially when healthy. They're seven and two against

1214
01:00:12,840 --> 01:00:15,840
Speaker 2: Ken Palm top twenty five teams. Kentucky is one to

1215
01:00:16,040 --> 01:00:19,120
Speaker 2: five against Ken Palm teams from twenty six to fifty.

1216
01:00:19,520 --> 01:00:22,919
Speaker 2: Like these are the games where you know who knows

1217
01:00:22,920 --> 01:00:25,280
Speaker 2: how they're feeling mentally about if this is a big

1218
01:00:25,320 --> 01:00:28,160
Speaker 2: game or not. But it's these opponents that are kind

1219
01:00:28,160 --> 01:00:30,520
Speaker 2: of flipping this, oh I get to play Kentucky tonight

1220
01:00:30,880 --> 01:00:33,400
Speaker 2: that have really caused problems. I think there was that

1221
01:00:33,400 --> 01:00:36,520
Speaker 2: clip of Otega Ohway or against Clemson, like this is

1222
01:00:36,560 --> 01:00:39,320
Speaker 2: your super Bowl, Yeah you are everybody super Bowl and

1223
01:00:39,360 --> 01:00:42,560
Speaker 2: teams play out to Kentucky and Kentucky hasn't played played

1224
01:00:42,560 --> 01:00:45,560
Speaker 2: to these level of teams. Well, so without Lamont Butler,

1225
01:00:45,560 --> 01:00:48,120
Speaker 2: I don't think he's going to play Jackson Robinson, he

1226
01:00:48,200 --> 01:00:50,240
Speaker 2: may be out a long time. At this point, they're

1227
01:00:50,280 --> 01:00:52,960
Speaker 2: so shorthanded. It's gonna come down to them going nuclear

1228
01:00:52,960 --> 01:00:55,600
Speaker 2: from three and credit to Trent Nohen Travis Perry for

1229
01:00:55,680 --> 01:00:58,120
Speaker 2: doing it at home. They hit five combined three's last game.

1230
01:00:58,280 --> 01:01:00,880
Speaker 2: Those guys have three combined made three pointers on the

1231
01:01:00,920 --> 01:01:04,160
Speaker 2: road all season long. And maybe alluding to what I

1232
01:01:04,160 --> 01:01:05,800
Speaker 2: said in the first segment of the show. There's a

1233
01:01:05,800 --> 01:01:08,760
Speaker 2: lot of coaches getting a savior job victory right now.

1234
01:01:09,120 --> 01:01:12,000
Speaker 2: How about a Rodney Terry victory over Kentucky this week

1235
01:01:12,040 --> 01:01:14,320
Speaker 2: to maybe take the critics off his back for a

1236
01:01:14,360 --> 01:01:14,760
Speaker 2: little bit.

1237
01:01:15,160 --> 01:01:17,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, big game for Texas, Like they could find themselves

1238
01:01:19,000 --> 01:01:21,720
Speaker 4: on the bubble soon like they lose us for Are

1239
01:01:21,720 --> 01:01:24,120
Speaker 4: they four to nine in the SEC? Like I get

1240
01:01:24,120 --> 01:01:25,680
Speaker 4: the SEC is going to get some teams in that

1241
01:01:25,720 --> 01:01:29,160
Speaker 4: are under five hundred, But I think it'll be a

1242
01:01:29,240 --> 01:01:32,760
Speaker 4: game if Texas gets that, their fans will be able

1243
01:01:32,800 --> 01:01:37,160
Speaker 4: to kind of just exhale a little bit. I won't

1244
01:01:37,200 --> 01:01:40,200
Speaker 4: say who you compare them to out loud, because as

1245
01:01:40,640 --> 01:01:42,040
Speaker 4: I have someone in the other room as a Diard

1246
01:01:42,160 --> 01:01:44,880
Speaker 4: Kentucky fan here in Aruba, and I would like to

1247
01:01:44,880 --> 01:01:47,840
Speaker 4: stay on good terms with them. Calbrees, you have one

1248
01:01:47,880 --> 01:01:52,000
Speaker 4: final one in the A ten, which is pretty interesting.

1249
01:01:52,200 --> 01:01:55,200
Speaker 3: What do you got so last episode with Tanner, I

1250
01:01:55,440 --> 01:01:59,400
Speaker 3: faded my loyal Greyhounds. Shout out to Army closing strong Rucker.

1251
01:01:59,480 --> 01:02:02,040
Speaker 3: Did you know got basically all the major hoops they

1252
01:02:02,080 --> 01:02:04,960
Speaker 3: needed to come back and win by four on the road.

1253
01:02:05,280 --> 01:02:06,600
Speaker 3: Going to go ahead and fade the other team that

1254
01:02:06,640 --> 01:02:08,720
Speaker 3: I have an emotional connection to, which is Saint Joe's.

1255
01:02:09,040 --> 01:02:10,840
Speaker 3: I watch every single one of their games, and I

1256
01:02:10,840 --> 01:02:13,240
Speaker 3: can tell you in a game against George Mason, I'd

1257
01:02:13,320 --> 01:02:16,200
Speaker 3: lay up to seven with the Patriots here because Saint

1258
01:02:16,280 --> 01:02:18,200
Speaker 3: Joe's on the road in A ten. Play one in

1259
01:02:18,320 --> 01:02:21,760
Speaker 3: four against the spread wild swings, high variance team, but

1260
01:02:21,880 --> 01:02:24,120
Speaker 3: a lot of cold starts, and that is not a

1261
01:02:24,160 --> 01:02:26,920
Speaker 3: good recipe against George Mason, who's arguably the best defensive

1262
01:02:26,920 --> 01:02:30,000
Speaker 3: team in the A ten, a true elite mid major

1263
01:02:30,040 --> 01:02:32,880
Speaker 3: defense under Tony Skin. You just don't get good shots

1264
01:02:32,880 --> 01:02:35,160
Speaker 3: against them, and what happens in the half court is

1265
01:02:35,360 --> 01:02:37,680
Speaker 3: team's panic, and then you're forced to bomb away laid

1266
01:02:37,680 --> 01:02:40,400
Speaker 3: in the shotcock. That sounds like Reynolds to me. He's

1267
01:02:40,440 --> 01:02:43,360
Speaker 3: been taking bad threes the entire season. He's lost confidence

1268
01:02:43,400 --> 01:02:45,520
Speaker 3: from long range. A guy who is a career three

1269
01:02:45,520 --> 01:02:48,080
Speaker 3: point shooter in the upper thirties, all of a sudden

1270
01:02:48,120 --> 01:02:49,800
Speaker 3: he can shoot them out of games, going two for

1271
01:02:49,920 --> 01:02:54,000
Speaker 3: thirteen from long range. And George Mason dominates the defensive glass,

1272
01:02:54,200 --> 01:02:57,120
Speaker 3: so those bad shots are turning into stops. I understand

1273
01:02:57,160 --> 01:02:59,080
Speaker 3: that offensively, they're not going to blow you away, so

1274
01:02:59,280 --> 01:03:01,280
Speaker 3: there's a feeling when you look at you know what

1275
01:03:01,360 --> 01:03:03,880
Speaker 3: they've done in the A ten as a bigger favorite.

1276
01:03:04,000 --> 01:03:07,200
Speaker 3: You know, they won against George Washington, but didn't come

1277
01:03:07,240 --> 01:03:09,920
Speaker 3: close to covering, didn't cover against Richmond or Roady the

1278
01:03:09,920 --> 01:03:12,240
Speaker 3: first time around. As eleven and a half point favorites.

1279
01:03:12,440 --> 01:03:15,360
Speaker 3: I'm hoping that that pushes this number closer to five

1280
01:03:15,360 --> 01:03:18,240
Speaker 3: and a half six. But in terms of a game

1281
01:03:18,280 --> 01:03:20,680
Speaker 3: getting away from Saint Joe's, I think this has the

1282
01:03:20,720 --> 01:03:23,960
Speaker 3: absolute blueprint because defensively, George Mason is not going to

1283
01:03:24,040 --> 01:03:26,080
Speaker 3: waste those stops and they're not going to give away

1284
01:03:26,080 --> 01:03:30,320
Speaker 3: offensive boards. So Saint Joe's it's this is really the

1285
01:03:30,360 --> 01:03:32,640
Speaker 3: stretch run for Billy Lang. He's got to get them

1286
01:03:32,680 --> 01:03:35,160
Speaker 3: to nineteen twenty wins going into the A ten tournament

1287
01:03:35,360 --> 01:03:38,720
Speaker 3: to have a real shot to not only make the

1288
01:03:38,760 --> 01:03:40,920
Speaker 3: tournaments and say, you know, be in the field of

1289
01:03:40,960 --> 01:03:43,200
Speaker 3: sixty four, but to do some damage. It's put up

1290
01:03:43,240 --> 01:03:45,480
Speaker 3: or shut up time, and I just don't believe they

1291
01:03:45,480 --> 01:03:48,040
Speaker 3: can do it against really buttoned up defensive teams. I've

1292
01:03:48,080 --> 01:03:50,600
Speaker 3: been waiting, you know, to pick my spot here it

1293
01:03:50,680 --> 01:03:52,960
Speaker 3: is on the road. I think George Mason's going to

1294
01:03:53,000 --> 01:03:54,720
Speaker 3: live up to their conference record in the eight ten.

1295
01:03:55,720 --> 01:03:56,640
Speaker 1: I can't get there here.

1296
01:03:56,680 --> 01:04:00,240
Speaker 4: I mean it depends, obviously, depends on the number, but

1297
01:04:00,320 --> 01:04:03,320
Speaker 4: this just feels like I mean George Mason. They escape

1298
01:04:03,360 --> 01:04:05,480
Speaker 4: every game. Their defense is e laite, but their offense

1299
01:04:05,560 --> 01:04:07,880
Speaker 4: they can't close out games. They can't shoot free throws,

1300
01:04:08,280 --> 01:04:09,800
Speaker 4: they turn the ball over too much.

1301
01:04:11,640 --> 01:04:14,520
Speaker 3: Picturing though, which is them protecting Let's call it a

1302
01:04:14,560 --> 01:04:15,960
Speaker 3: fifteen point first ath lead.

1303
01:04:16,120 --> 01:04:17,080
Speaker 1: I think that's the difference.

1304
01:04:17,200 --> 01:04:19,600
Speaker 3: If they're gifted a big lead, I don't think they'll

1305
01:04:19,640 --> 01:04:22,520
Speaker 3: squander it because their offensive foiables, I think, are on

1306
01:04:22,560 --> 01:04:25,040
Speaker 3: full display. I agree with you that they they are

1307
01:04:25,080 --> 01:04:27,520
Speaker 3: not geared to run away from teams, but I do

1308
01:04:27,600 --> 01:04:29,840
Speaker 3: think they're geared to, you know, squeeze the life out

1309
01:04:29,840 --> 01:04:31,160
Speaker 3: of teams on the half court.

1310
01:04:31,480 --> 01:04:34,240
Speaker 4: Feels like a game like Saint Jose gets hot from three,

1311
01:04:34,320 --> 01:04:35,480
Speaker 4: comes back, and then.

1312
01:04:36,960 --> 01:04:38,680
Speaker 1: Like all Saint Jose games. I don't know.

1313
01:04:38,680 --> 01:04:40,640
Speaker 4: I don't think I can get there with you, but

1314
01:04:40,680 --> 01:04:44,160
Speaker 4: I wish you luck. That'll do it for us. Thanks

1315
01:04:44,200 --> 01:04:47,920
Speaker 4: to Mike and Greg for joining me. Thanks to our

1316
01:04:47,960 --> 01:04:50,200
Speaker 4: producer David on the back end. Most fortally, thanks to

1317
01:04:50,200 --> 01:04:52,680
Speaker 4: all of you for tuning in. Make sure you subscribe.

1318
01:04:52,720 --> 01:04:55,480
Speaker 4: Oh and thanks to Tanner, always a treat getting his

1319
01:04:55,560 --> 01:04:57,800
Speaker 4: America East takes. But make sure you subscribe on subscript

1320
01:04:57,800 --> 01:04:59,560
Speaker 4: subscribe to a friend tone. I think he a five

1321
01:04:59,600 --> 01:05:02,880
Speaker 4: star really helps us out. We will be back next

1322
01:05:02,880 --> 01:05:08,200
Speaker 4: week same time you Also, myself, Mike and Tanner will

1323
01:05:08,200 --> 01:05:10,000
Speaker 4: be back on Tuesday, and the guys from The Three

1324
01:05:10,000 --> 01:05:11,280
Speaker 4: Men we will be early in the week.

1325
01:05:11,600 --> 01:05:13,000
Speaker 1: Thanksgime for tune in and we'll catch you'll later.

1326
01:05:13,080 --> 01:05:30,560
Speaker 5: Toose Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1327
01:05:31,000 --> 01:05:33,840
Speaker 4: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1328
01:05:34,080 --> 01:05:36,720
Speaker 4: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1329
01:05:36,800 --> 01:05:37,600
Speaker 4: hundred Gambler