WEBVTT - The Science of Quitting (Rebroadcast) 0:00:14.916 --> 0:00:22.916 Pushkin. Hey there. This week, we're going to replay our 0:00:22.996 --> 0:00:27.916 most popular science episode. Professional poker player and cognitive scientist 0:00:28.036 --> 0:00:31.836 Annie Duke talks about the science of quitting. Annie just 0:00:31.876 --> 0:00:34.356 published the book she was writing when we first recorded 0:00:34.356 --> 0:00:38.116 our conversation. It's called Quit, The Power of Knowing When 0:00:38.156 --> 0:00:40.756 to Walk Away, and fun fact, I'm one of the 0:00:40.836 --> 0:00:44.156 characters in the book. In this episode, Annie offers a 0:00:44.196 --> 0:00:47.756 helpful roadmap for making better decisions and mastering the skill 0:00:47.796 --> 0:00:50.756 of quitting. I wanted to share this episode again as 0:00:50.796 --> 0:00:53.156 we enter the holiday season because it's a time when 0:00:53.196 --> 0:00:56.356 many of us reflect on past choices and think through 0:00:56.436 --> 0:01:00.076 what's up ahead. I've kept Annie's wisdom front and center, 0:01:00.356 --> 0:01:02.716 and I hope you will too. Next week we'll be 0:01:02.716 --> 0:01:05.476 back with more new episodes of season five. Of a 0:01:05.516 --> 0:01:19.036 slight change of plans, I'll see then. What I found 0:01:19.036 --> 0:01:21.836 out is that like there's all these like great words 0:01:22.036 --> 0:01:31.236 for grit, including like heroism, right like steadfast, right like perseverance, 0:01:31.396 --> 0:01:34.356 Like grit is one of those words that's like a 0:01:34.436 --> 0:01:40.356 super super positive connotation, like sticktuitiveness. But when you look 0:01:40.396 --> 0:01:43.716 at quit, there's hardly any words that like are nice. 0:01:44.436 --> 0:01:47.276 And in fact, one of the synonyms for quit is 0:01:47.316 --> 0:01:51.876 the word coward. Annie Duke knows a lot about quitting. 0:01:52.316 --> 0:01:54.356 It's something she got really good at when she was 0:01:54.356 --> 0:01:57.676 a professional poker player on the world stage, and a 0:01:57.756 --> 0:02:01.156 really successful one at that. We're talking over four million 0:02:01.196 --> 0:02:05.236 dollars in prize money. And what distinguishes great poker players 0:02:05.356 --> 0:02:08.836 from everybody else is that is mainly quitting. They quit 0:02:08.876 --> 0:02:11.036 a lot more. So they're just very good at cutting 0:02:11.076 --> 0:02:13.916 their losses, so they fold more hands to start. Once 0:02:13.956 --> 0:02:16.436 they've committed money to a pot, they fold a lot more. 0:02:16.836 --> 0:02:20.516 They change tactics or strategies like in the middle of things, 0:02:22.156 --> 0:02:25.636 and you have to be willing to do that. Annie's 0:02:25.716 --> 0:02:28.196 rallying cry is that we should quit a lot more. 0:02:28.836 --> 0:02:31.836 I know it's not something we hear often, and that's 0:02:31.876 --> 0:02:34.756 exactly why I've been so excited to have Annie on 0:02:34.796 --> 0:02:38.236 this show, to teach us something that goes against common 0:02:38.276 --> 0:02:41.276 wisdom but can actually change our lives for the better. 0:02:42.236 --> 0:02:45.436 Annie's the best selling author of two books, Thinking in 0:02:45.516 --> 0:02:48.396 Bets and How to Decide, But today she's going to 0:02:48.436 --> 0:02:50.756 give us a sneak peek of her upcoming book on 0:02:50.796 --> 0:02:53.636 the science of quitting. She'll show us how to get 0:02:53.676 --> 0:02:55.636 out of her own way and learn how to quit 0:02:55.716 --> 0:03:00.996 when we should. I'm maya Shunker, and this is a 0:03:01.036 --> 0:03:03.956 slight change of plans, a show about who we are 0:03:04.156 --> 0:03:13.476 and who we become in the face of a big change. 0:03:17.876 --> 0:03:20.996 Poker wasn't always in the cards for Annie. She actually 0:03:20.996 --> 0:03:24.556 started out at the University of Pennsylvania studying cognitive science, 0:03:25.196 --> 0:03:29.396 specifically how we make decisions and times of uncertainty. I 0:03:29.476 --> 0:03:33.156 was fully intending to become a professor, which is kind 0:03:33.156 --> 0:03:34.596 of what you do with that kind of degree. It 0:03:34.596 --> 0:03:37.516 doesn't have a whole lot of practical application, and I 0:03:37.556 --> 0:03:39.516 actually had all of my what are called job talks 0:03:39.556 --> 0:03:43.956 lined up, and I've been struggling for a couple of 0:03:43.956 --> 0:03:46.916 months with a stomach problem, and I thought, I'm just 0:03:46.956 --> 0:03:49.516 going to power through this, and it turned out that 0:03:49.636 --> 0:03:53.196 my body said no, you can't power through it. And 0:03:53.316 --> 0:03:55.996 in fact, the powering through it meant that I ended 0:03:56.036 --> 0:03:58.196 up in the hospital because I sort of wasn't taking 0:03:58.196 --> 0:04:00.436 care of this problem, and so I was in the 0:04:00.436 --> 0:04:05.836 hospital for a couple of weeks, very sick. So I 0:04:06.076 --> 0:04:08.436 decided to take a year off to try to recuperate, 0:04:09.196 --> 0:04:11.476 and there was a little bit of a bind right, 0:04:11.516 --> 0:04:13.716 because so I've been forced to quit for a year 0:04:14.196 --> 0:04:15.996 and I can't I don't want to start a new 0:04:16.036 --> 0:04:17.836 career because I'm going to go back and become an 0:04:17.876 --> 0:04:20.996 academic and I don't know how I'm going to feel 0:04:21.076 --> 0:04:23.676 from day today. So I need something that has like 0:04:23.716 --> 0:04:27.516 super flexible hours. And I really desperately need money, because 0:04:27.556 --> 0:04:30.916 it turns out when you leave graduate school for a year, 0:04:31.076 --> 0:04:36.916 your fellowship does not leave with you. You give it up. Yeah. Yeah, 0:04:36.956 --> 0:04:39.716 So I did not have any money. So my brother 0:04:40.436 --> 0:04:43.716 actually suggested to me that I could play poker and 0:04:43.756 --> 0:04:45.556 that that might be like the perfect thing for me 0:04:45.596 --> 0:04:47.876 to do because obviously I could set my own hours, 0:04:47.916 --> 0:04:49.676 and you know, I could just do it to make 0:04:49.676 --> 0:04:51.836 some money on the side. And you know what, I 0:04:51.876 --> 0:04:53.756 just I sat down at the table and it was like, 0:04:55.236 --> 0:04:57.156 you know, when like in the movies, I'll have like 0:04:57.236 --> 0:05:01.276 the heavens open up and the angels are singing. It 0:05:01.396 --> 0:05:03.396 felt a little bit like that to me, because when 0:05:03.396 --> 0:05:05.836 I thought about what I've been studying a graduate school, 0:05:07.436 --> 0:05:10.516 this was that, in other words, this problem of how 0:05:10.556 --> 0:05:14.516 do you make really great decisions under uncertainty, and poker 0:05:14.636 --> 0:05:17.916 is like super uncertain You can't see the other players cards, 0:05:17.916 --> 0:05:20.276 and in the short run there's a really really strong 0:05:20.316 --> 0:05:23.596 influence of luck, which makes the decision making problem really hard, 0:05:23.636 --> 0:05:27.316 and it's really high stakes in real time. And sort 0:05:27.356 --> 0:05:29.116 of from the moment I sat down at the table, 0:05:29.276 --> 0:05:31.516 it turned out I had a knack for it. So 0:05:31.596 --> 0:05:34.076 I didn't actually end up going back to graduate school 0:05:34.076 --> 0:05:36.156 because I loved this so much and I was experiencing 0:05:36.196 --> 0:05:38.836 a lot of success. Within a couple of years, I'd 0:05:38.836 --> 0:05:41.076 played at the World Series of Poker, I was making 0:05:41.116 --> 0:05:45.156 final tables, I cashed in the main event, ended up 0:05:45.196 --> 0:05:48.716 moving to Las Vegas, and this is what I really 0:05:48.756 --> 0:05:52.196 concentrated on for quite a while. And then in two 0:05:52.276 --> 0:05:55.356 thousand and two there was a new aha, which was 0:05:55.636 --> 0:05:59.436 that there was this amazing conversation to be had between 0:05:59.476 --> 0:06:03.596 cognitive science and poker, a poker sort of informing the 0:06:03.636 --> 0:06:07.356 cognitive science and the cognitive science informing the poker. So 0:06:07.716 --> 0:06:12.196 I started consulting and speaking full time and really wanted 0:06:12.236 --> 0:06:14.956 to write a book about these topics that I had 0:06:14.996 --> 0:06:19.276 really been exploring. So it looks like I've changed careers 0:06:19.316 --> 0:06:22.756 a lot, you know, from academic to poker player to 0:06:23.196 --> 0:06:28.036 speaker and consultant to author back to academic it seems 0:06:28.076 --> 0:06:29.876 like a lot of zigging and zagging, but there's this 0:06:29.996 --> 0:06:34.276 through line through everything, which is learning under uncertainty. Yeah, 0:06:34.316 --> 0:06:38.356 so quitting gets such a bad rep right. And you know, 0:06:38.676 --> 0:06:40.396 one of the things that I loved learning from you 0:06:40.516 --> 0:06:44.076 is that it's evident, even in the English language, that 0:06:44.116 --> 0:06:47.596 we are biased against quitting. Can you share more about that? Sure? 0:06:47.836 --> 0:06:51.476 So you have hero as a synonym, like heroism is 0:06:51.476 --> 0:06:55.756 a synonym for grittiness, and then cowardice as a synonym 0:06:55.836 --> 0:06:58.436 for quitting. And also, just by the way, one of 0:06:58.436 --> 0:07:01.436 the things I point out is we have this word grittiness, 0:07:01.476 --> 0:07:03.836 but we don't have a word quittiness, which is telling 0:07:03.876 --> 0:07:06.876 in and of itself. Right. So obviously there are some 0:07:06.956 --> 0:07:14.276 negative ways to describe being too gritty, like stubbornness or rigidity, 0:07:14.636 --> 0:07:18.316 but they're few and far between. Mostly they're like amazing, like, oh, 0:07:18.356 --> 0:07:22.556 you're such a hero, You're so gritty, you have perseverance, sticktuitiveness, pluck, 0:07:22.876 --> 0:07:27.876 you're very plucky, right of metal. And then on the quickside, 0:07:27.956 --> 0:07:32.876 it's just like you're a coward, right, You're capricious, like 0:07:33.116 --> 0:07:35.436 all of these things. So I think that it's really 0:07:35.436 --> 0:07:37.556 reflected in the English language. And then it's kind of 0:07:37.596 --> 0:07:40.996 reflected in if you think about the way that we 0:07:41.076 --> 0:07:44.436 process a narrative, right, we don't really see the quitters. 0:07:44.556 --> 0:07:47.396 Like what we think about is the people the heroes 0:07:47.436 --> 0:07:51.236 are the ones who persevere beyond the point of physical 0:07:51.836 --> 0:07:55.076 or emotional or mental well being in order to push 0:07:55.116 --> 0:07:58.916 past that and like cross the chasm. But the problem, 0:07:58.996 --> 0:08:03.316 of course is that a lot of times those people 0:08:03.356 --> 0:08:06.076 have put themselves in danger in a situation where you 0:08:06.116 --> 0:08:08.916 really ought to have turned around. And what I think 0:08:08.996 --> 0:08:11.996 is really interesting, and I talk about this in the book, 0:08:12.116 --> 0:08:17.836 is that from a narrative standpoint, we'd prefer somebody to 0:08:17.916 --> 0:08:23.796 push past the point of sensibility and persevere and actually 0:08:23.836 --> 0:08:29.636 perish to somebody who rightly quits early, Like, which do 0:08:29.676 --> 0:08:34.876 you think of is the more admirable person. So one 0:08:34.876 --> 0:08:38.036 of the examples, like I've given the book is if 0:08:38.076 --> 0:08:40.636 you think about Everest, right when we think about somebody 0:08:40.636 --> 0:08:43.996 like Rob Hall. So for those people who don't know, 0:08:44.116 --> 0:08:46.396 like if you've read the book Into Thin Air or 0:08:46.436 --> 0:08:50.356 you've seen the documentary Everest. This was in nineteen ninety 0:08:50.356 --> 0:08:52.876 six and there was a it was a disastrous year 0:08:52.916 --> 0:08:55.276 where a lot of people died on the mountain on 0:08:55.316 --> 0:08:58.636 everest and Rob Hall, who was this amazing alpinist and 0:08:58.956 --> 0:09:02.596 expedition leader, was one of those people who perished, and 0:09:02.756 --> 0:09:05.836 he is very much painted as a hero of that story. 0:09:06.356 --> 0:09:10.036 He had set turnaround times for every single day, and 0:09:10.076 --> 0:09:12.036 a turnaround time is just if you haven't gotten to 0:09:12.076 --> 0:09:14.396 point A by this time, you must turn around and 0:09:14.476 --> 0:09:17.396 go back to whatever camp you're coming from. The reason 0:09:17.476 --> 0:09:19.636 being that there's a very very dangerous part of that 0:09:19.676 --> 0:09:23.156 mountain called the South Ridge, and you do not want 0:09:23.196 --> 0:09:26.036 to descend the South Ridge in darkness. You'll fall like 0:09:26.276 --> 0:09:29.476 eight thousand feet into Nepal. And Rob Hall broke the 0:09:29.516 --> 0:09:34.916 turnaround time, so you know, and obviously it resulted in tragedy. 0:09:35.156 --> 0:09:37.476 And what's really interesting is that there were some people 0:09:37.476 --> 0:09:41.356 who followed the turnaround time who are also described in 0:09:41.356 --> 0:09:45.556 the book. They're also in the documentary, and nobody remembers 0:09:45.596 --> 0:09:48.396 their names, just so you know, Touching Santaski and Kaciki. 0:09:48.876 --> 0:09:50.796 These are three people who turned around at the right 0:09:50.836 --> 0:09:53.276 time and made these great decisions, and they're totally invisible 0:09:53.316 --> 0:09:55.956 to us because they aren't the heroes of our narratives. 0:09:56.076 --> 0:09:57.756 And that's part of the problem. Like, how do you 0:09:57.756 --> 0:10:00.956 get people like that to be the hero of your narrative? Yeah? Yeah, 0:10:00.996 --> 0:10:03.036 can you also just close the loot for listeners on 0:10:03.116 --> 0:10:06.036 Rob Hall? So just noting that the reason he did 0:10:06.036 --> 0:10:08.116 not follow the turnaround times he was trying to help 0:10:08.156 --> 0:10:10.316 this guy get up had previously not been able to 0:10:10.316 --> 0:10:11.836 get up, And do you mind just sharing that because 0:10:11.876 --> 0:10:14.236 I think that's such an emotionally evocative part of the story, 0:10:14.236 --> 0:10:16.996 which is like we can't quit a second time, you know. Yeah? Yeah, 0:10:16.996 --> 0:10:18.836 So Rob Paul actually got to the top, but then 0:10:18.876 --> 0:10:20.676 he waited there for two hours for a guy named 0:10:20.716 --> 0:10:23.996 Doug Hanson. And the question is why, right, Like why 0:10:24.116 --> 0:10:26.236 why he was already an hour passed the turnaround time. 0:10:26.316 --> 0:10:28.956 Doug Hanson clearly was well passed the turnaround time and 0:10:29.076 --> 0:10:31.596 was not nearly as skill the climber as Rob Hall was, 0:10:31.836 --> 0:10:33.556 So why didn't he turn around? And you have to 0:10:33.596 --> 0:10:36.556 rewind to the year before to understand kind of what 0:10:36.596 --> 0:10:39.276 the forces were that caused him to do that. So 0:10:39.556 --> 0:10:43.756 the year before was a very bad climbing year. So 0:10:44.796 --> 0:10:46.796 Rob Hall had tried to sum up with a group 0:10:46.836 --> 0:10:49.836 and Doug Hanson was in the group and they came 0:10:49.876 --> 0:10:53.996 back down, so they had abandoned their summit attempt. So 0:10:54.076 --> 0:10:57.076 now he convinces Doug Hanson to come back the next 0:10:57.156 --> 0:11:01.116 year because he says, I'll get you up the second time. 0:11:02.356 --> 0:11:04.796 And now we can see these forces like this is 0:11:04.836 --> 0:11:08.236 one of the big forces that causes us to not quit. 0:11:08.356 --> 0:11:10.956 And the phrase that I think is such a great 0:11:10.996 --> 0:11:14.036 phrase for us to really internalize it is called in 0:11:14.116 --> 0:11:17.876 the losses. So when we're in the losses, we have 0:11:17.956 --> 0:11:25.516 the desire to get those back, and we don't think about, well, 0:11:25.516 --> 0:11:28.316 what's the probability that I would actually be able to succeed? 0:11:28.836 --> 0:11:31.636 That's number one. We don't think about if I go 0:11:31.756 --> 0:11:34.516 for this, what are the opportunities I'm going to give 0:11:34.636 --> 0:11:37.236 up by going for it? Right, And that's true of 0:11:37.276 --> 0:11:41.636 anything like if you're in an monogamous relationship, you're obviously 0:11:41.716 --> 0:11:45.676 foregoing the opportunities to date other people. If you're in 0:11:45.716 --> 0:11:48.996 a job, you're foregoing the other opportunities to have other 0:11:49.076 --> 0:11:51.716 full time jobs. So this is a really actually big 0:11:51.756 --> 0:11:54.756 problem is that we tend not to see what we're 0:11:54.796 --> 0:11:57.476 giving up in terms of the other opportunities that might 0:11:57.516 --> 0:11:59.996 be available to us when we're on a particular path. 0:12:00.276 --> 0:12:04.676 So if you think about climbing everest. When we're thinking 0:12:04.716 --> 0:12:08.836 about trying to reach the summit, it causes this like myopia, 0:12:09.236 --> 0:12:12.916 we can't see like other things, other opportunities that we 0:12:12.996 --> 0:12:15.156 might have in our life, like to climb other mountains, 0:12:15.276 --> 0:12:18.796 or to spend time with our families, or whatever it 0:12:18.796 --> 0:12:20.716 else it is we might want to do that that 0:12:21.196 --> 0:12:23.756 pursuing that goal might actually make less likely for us 0:12:23.796 --> 0:12:27.796 to be able to do exactly. Okay, so Annie, I'd 0:12:27.796 --> 0:12:30.956 love to dig into some of the behavioral biases we 0:12:31.036 --> 0:12:34.476 face that interfere with our ability to quit when we 0:12:34.516 --> 0:12:39.116 ought to do. You mind talking with listeners about escalation 0:12:39.116 --> 0:12:43.476 of commitment? Sure? Have you ever heard of the game Katamari? So? 0:12:43.556 --> 0:12:46.796 Katamari is a game where it's the weirdest game. You 0:12:46.836 --> 0:12:49.476 start with this little tiny speck of something and you 0:12:49.636 --> 0:12:52.076 roll it around and it starts to pick stuff up, 0:12:52.476 --> 0:12:55.116 and if it picks things up that are smaller than 0:12:55.156 --> 0:12:57.036 it is, it will pick it up and it will 0:12:57.036 --> 0:12:58.916 grow in size. If you try to pick something up 0:12:58.956 --> 0:13:01.836 that's bigger than the ball that you're rolling around, it 0:13:01.876 --> 0:13:04.516 will cause the ball to become smaller again. So the 0:13:04.556 --> 0:13:07.156 ideas you're trying to create a ball that's big enough 0:13:07.596 --> 0:13:11.196 that you can start picking up planet and it becomes 0:13:11.196 --> 0:13:14.316 like the size of a son. So you start off 0:13:14.316 --> 0:13:16.636 with this little ball that's like picking up specs of 0:13:16.716 --> 0:13:19.036 dust and flies, and you're rolling it around like in 0:13:19.036 --> 0:13:20.916 a room, and you're like pick. Then you start picking 0:13:20.956 --> 0:13:24.276 up bottles, you pick up the cat, you know, you 0:13:24.316 --> 0:13:26.396 pick up like the couch, and then you start picking 0:13:26.436 --> 0:13:28.556 up houses, and you can pick up mountains, and this 0:13:28.636 --> 0:13:31.396 thing just becomes bigger and bigger and bigger. And when 0:13:31.396 --> 0:13:34.796 I think about what happens to us that we don't quit, 0:13:35.036 --> 0:13:37.396 I think about Katamari because I think that it's such 0:13:37.396 --> 0:13:40.636 a great visual for understanding escalation of commitment. And it 0:13:40.676 --> 0:13:44.796 basically goes this way. You put time, resources, money, your 0:13:44.796 --> 0:13:47.716 own identity. Right Like if you think about a career 0:13:47.996 --> 0:13:50.236 or a major, it becomes part of your identity. Who 0:13:50.236 --> 0:13:54.316 am I? I'm a doctor? Who am I? You know? 0:13:54.596 --> 0:14:00.356 I am an English major or I'm an engineer or whatever. Right, 0:14:00.396 --> 0:14:02.396 these things become part of our identity. And then we're 0:14:02.396 --> 0:14:04.916 putting time and effort and money and all of this 0:14:05.036 --> 0:14:10.556 stuff resources into this thing. Those the fact that we've 0:14:11.836 --> 0:14:15.676 dumped all of that into the decision to be on 0:14:15.716 --> 0:14:18.356 the path that we're on means that when we're faced 0:14:18.396 --> 0:14:21.676 with a decision about whether to quit or persevere, we're 0:14:21.676 --> 0:14:25.476 going to have a tendency to persevere because we've accumulated 0:14:25.516 --> 0:14:29.876 all of this debris like a Katamari ball. But what's 0:14:29.916 --> 0:14:32.396 interesting is that the fact that that pushes us to 0:14:32.436 --> 0:14:36.876 persevere means that now we persevere, and now we put 0:14:36.916 --> 0:14:41.316 more time and more effort and more money and more 0:14:41.396 --> 0:14:44.716 resources and more of our identity into the thing that 0:14:44.756 --> 0:14:46.836 we're doing, which means that the next point that we're 0:14:46.836 --> 0:14:50.356 thinking about whether to quit or persevere, the ball is bigger. 0:14:50.396 --> 0:14:54.356 It's starting to become house sized, which makes us then 0:14:54.916 --> 0:14:58.396 more likely to persevere again, and so on so forth, 0:14:58.476 --> 0:15:01.556 until you have like this katamari that's the size of 0:15:01.596 --> 0:15:04.516 a planet, and you kind of can't quit at that point. 0:15:05.516 --> 0:15:07.276 So now if we go back to Rob Haul, we 0:15:07.316 --> 0:15:09.396 can see the problem right because he's carrying a lot 0:15:09.436 --> 0:15:11.836 of that with him. He failed the year before, He's 0:15:11.876 --> 0:15:14.596 made a promise to Doug Hanson and that he's going 0:15:14.636 --> 0:15:17.476 to get him up, and that causes this myopia for 0:15:17.556 --> 0:15:19.276 him to sort of, I think, not to see the 0:15:19.356 --> 0:15:21.276 situation for what it is, which is one that you 0:15:21.276 --> 0:15:25.196 should quit, go back down the mountain, grab Doug Hanson, 0:15:25.276 --> 0:15:27.076 and then you know, maybe you have a chance the 0:15:27.156 --> 0:15:29.916 next year. I'm wondering, Annie, if you can talk a 0:15:29.916 --> 0:15:32.996 bit about the role of regret and all this, because 0:15:33.356 --> 0:15:36.476 there is a regret asymmetry that's important to acknowledge here, 0:15:36.516 --> 0:15:40.036 which is, we tend to feel a lot of regret 0:15:40.356 --> 0:15:43.316 when we think about the idea of quitting, but somehow 0:15:43.876 --> 0:15:45.916 staying with the status quo does not fill us with 0:15:45.956 --> 0:15:48.796 those same feelings of regret. And so can you just 0:15:48.796 --> 0:15:51.996 talk to listeners a bit about regret asymmetry generally and 0:15:52.036 --> 0:15:56.076 how that plays a profound role in our conception of quitting. Right, 0:15:56.196 --> 0:16:00.076 it's an antagonist towards quitting. Yeah. So there's two really 0:16:00.116 --> 0:16:03.276 important biases to think about because they collide here when 0:16:03.276 --> 0:16:05.956 it comes to quitting. The first cognitive bias is called 0:16:05.956 --> 0:16:08.836 status quo bias. Status quo bias is that we have 0:16:08.916 --> 0:16:12.436 a preference for the path that we're already on. Okay, 0:16:12.436 --> 0:16:14.436 so we don't like to change. We have a preference 0:16:14.436 --> 0:16:17.116 to keep going the way that we're going. That collides 0:16:17.156 --> 0:16:21.076 with another bias, which is called omission comission bias, and 0:16:21.476 --> 0:16:27.116 what that is is that failing to act does not 0:16:27.356 --> 0:16:33.836 feel as much like a decision as acting does. Right, So, 0:16:34.116 --> 0:16:36.276 let's say that I'm in a career or I'm in 0:16:36.316 --> 0:16:41.756 a relationship and I just stay the path. It doesn't 0:16:41.796 --> 0:16:46.476 feel like I've made a decision. If I move, if 0:16:46.476 --> 0:16:49.076 I quit my job and change, if I break up 0:16:49.956 --> 0:16:52.396 in the relationship, now it feels like I've actually made 0:16:52.436 --> 0:16:55.516 a decision. Now. The reason why this is an error 0:16:55.676 --> 0:16:59.116 is because the decision to stay in the job is 0:16:59.156 --> 0:17:02.196 also an active decision, and you should treat it the 0:17:02.236 --> 0:17:07.156 same way like our regret treats those two things differently. Okay, 0:17:07.476 --> 0:17:12.036 so let say that you're in a job that is 0:17:12.116 --> 0:17:16.276 just awful. I have had conversations with people quite often 0:17:16.476 --> 0:17:18.996 where this happens. They come to me and they say, 0:17:20.756 --> 0:17:23.116 I really hate my job. I'm trying to decide whether 0:17:23.156 --> 0:17:25.196 I should quit. I don't really know what I should do. 0:17:25.636 --> 0:17:29.156 And I ask them this question. Imagine it's a year 0:17:29.236 --> 0:17:31.636 from now and you're still in the job that you're in. 0:17:32.436 --> 0:17:35.956 Do you think you'll be happy? And they say no. 0:17:36.556 --> 0:17:38.996 So what they're telling me is that one hundred percent 0:17:39.036 --> 0:17:41.956 of the time, twelve months from now, I will be 0:17:42.036 --> 0:17:44.956 unhappy in the job. That I'm in. So now I 0:17:44.996 --> 0:17:46.676 say to them, Okay, let's say that you quit this 0:17:46.756 --> 0:17:48.516 job and you go get this other job that you're 0:17:48.556 --> 0:17:53.476 thinking about. Imagine it's a year from now. Do you 0:17:53.476 --> 0:17:56.636 think you'll be happy? And they'll say, well, some of 0:17:56.676 --> 0:17:59.476 the time, you know, they'll say, let's just say they 0:17:59.476 --> 0:18:03.196 say it's a fifty fifty chance. Okay, So they say, 0:18:03.476 --> 0:18:05.516 if I switch fifty percent of the time, I'll be happy. 0:18:05.556 --> 0:18:08.276 Fifty percent of the time I won't. Now, when I 0:18:08.316 --> 0:18:10.716 put it that way, it becomes obvious that you ought 0:18:10.716 --> 0:18:14.196 to quit because one path you're unhappy one hundred percent 0:18:14.276 --> 0:18:18.276 of the time, and another path you're unhappy fifty percent 0:18:18.276 --> 0:18:21.476 of the time. So it seems clear that you ought 0:18:21.476 --> 0:18:23.396 to go take the other job. But this is where 0:18:23.396 --> 0:18:26.676 the regret asymmetry comes in, which is like, we're very 0:18:26.756 --> 0:18:30.116 tolerant of the unhappiness that occurs and just staying the course, 0:18:30.396 --> 0:18:33.396 and we're very intolerant of the unhappiness that might occur 0:18:33.716 --> 0:18:36.956 if we switch, and that they'll actually express that out loud. 0:18:36.996 --> 0:18:39.116 They'll say, but what if I take the new job 0:18:39.156 --> 0:18:42.556 and I'm unhappy, I'll feel like such an idiot Versus 0:18:42.556 --> 0:18:44.316 staying the job. That I know I hate, and I 0:18:44.516 --> 0:18:49.756 already know have evidence I'm unhappy in. Yeah. Right, we'll 0:18:49.756 --> 0:18:51.556 be back in a moment with a slight change of 0:18:51.596 --> 0:18:55.396 plans when Annie will share scientific strategies you can use 0:18:55.756 --> 0:19:06.556 to quit more often and sooner. One of the things 0:19:06.556 --> 0:19:08.916 that you said before that really struck me is around 0:19:08.916 --> 0:19:12.036 this concept of identity. And the reason is that so 0:19:12.156 --> 0:19:15.436 much of a slight change of plans is about our identity, 0:19:15.516 --> 0:19:18.716 how fixed we can feel in our sense of identity 0:19:18.956 --> 0:19:21.396 in the face of a big change, and how it 0:19:21.476 --> 0:19:23.276 is that we can navigate that. And one of the 0:19:23.316 --> 0:19:30.436 things you alluded to is we can sometimes resist quitting 0:19:30.636 --> 0:19:32.916 even when we know we ought to, because we attach 0:19:33.556 --> 0:19:37.836 that pursuit so closely to our identity, or we take 0:19:37.876 --> 0:19:41.116 so much pride in our identity as good decision makers, 0:19:41.476 --> 0:19:44.196 we don't like the idea of having it revealed to 0:19:44.276 --> 0:19:46.356 us that maybe we didn't actually make a great decision 0:19:46.356 --> 0:19:48.196 in the first place when we decided to do X 0:19:48.276 --> 0:19:50.436 or Y. And I'm wondering if you have tips for 0:19:50.556 --> 0:19:55.756 listeners about how it is that we can disentangle our 0:19:55.796 --> 0:19:59.276 sense of identity from these kinds of decisions or from 0:19:59.316 --> 0:20:02.236 the attachment we have towards certain pursuits so that we 0:20:02.276 --> 0:20:07.116 can make clear choices, more rational choices at these inflection points. 0:20:07.636 --> 0:20:10.076 So you talked about like, it's really hard for us 0:20:10.236 --> 0:20:14.916 to imagine that we made a bad decision, so we 0:20:14.996 --> 0:20:17.036 won't give it up. But I also want to add 0:20:17.036 --> 0:20:19.556 in there, sometimes we made a perfectly good decision but 0:20:19.676 --> 0:20:23.436 the circumstances have changed. But in that situation, we don't 0:20:23.476 --> 0:20:26.156 want to give up because somehow we think it invalidates 0:20:26.156 --> 0:20:27.796 the decision that we made in the first place, which 0:20:27.796 --> 0:20:30.596 isn't true. Remember, we're making decisions under uncertainty. And I 0:20:30.636 --> 0:20:32.196 think that's part of the problem is we forget that 0:20:32.236 --> 0:20:35.516 there's a third possibility, which is you made a perfectly 0:20:35.516 --> 0:20:37.796 fine decision and then you found out new stuff. And 0:20:37.796 --> 0:20:39.996 that's also by the true in relationships, like given what 0:20:40.036 --> 0:20:41.956 you knew at the time, it seems like a really 0:20:41.956 --> 0:20:44.316 good match, and then you found out new stuff, like 0:20:44.436 --> 0:20:47.356 that person might have changed. I think that's incredibly important 0:20:47.356 --> 0:20:51.956 for people to understand, is that sometimes stuff just changes. 0:20:53.276 --> 0:20:56.036 It's okay, doesn't mean that you that you messed up 0:20:56.076 --> 0:20:58.516 in the first place, and very often most of the 0:20:58.516 --> 0:21:00.756 time you didn't mess up in the first place, Like 0:21:01.276 --> 0:21:03.676 if you put a sign on your lawn for a 0:21:03.756 --> 0:21:07.476 candidate and then the candidate gets involved in some scandal, 0:21:07.836 --> 0:21:09.076 it doesn't mean it was like it was a bad 0:21:09.316 --> 0:21:10.716 decision for you to vote for them in the first 0:21:10.756 --> 0:21:13.716 place because you didn't know. Yeah, And I love the 0:21:13.716 --> 0:21:16.396 thought experiment that you give, which I think elucidates this 0:21:16.436 --> 0:21:20.276 concept well, which is when you ask people what's the 0:21:20.276 --> 0:21:23.156 best decision you've ever made, what's the worst decision you've 0:21:23.156 --> 0:21:26.156 ever made? We tend to not focus on the process 0:21:26.156 --> 0:21:28.356 by which we made the decision or the inputs to 0:21:28.436 --> 0:21:31.756 that decision, but instead what the outcome was. So what 0:21:31.836 --> 0:21:33.836 you found is you asked people what was the best decision, Well, 0:21:33.876 --> 0:21:35.756 they tend to choose the thing that had the best outcome, 0:21:36.316 --> 0:21:39.756 and vice versa for the bad one. And it's very possible, 0:21:39.876 --> 0:21:42.916 like you said that, let's say you made actually a 0:21:42.956 --> 0:21:46.196 really crappy decision, but you just lucked out right, like 0:21:46.436 --> 0:21:50.716 chance worked in your favor and new information appeared or whatnot, 0:21:50.716 --> 0:21:52.156 and you ended up with a good outcome. But I 0:21:52.196 --> 0:21:54.916 think that is a really helpful thought experiment because to 0:21:54.956 --> 0:21:57.476 your point, you might have very well made the decision 0:21:57.516 --> 0:22:00.676 to take on a pursuit or support a certain candidate, 0:22:01.036 --> 0:22:03.436 and it was a very smart choice given all the 0:22:03.476 --> 0:22:07.036 information you had had at that moment, or by the 0:22:07.076 --> 0:22:10.956 way your own preferences can change. I just want to like, 0:22:10.996 --> 0:22:12.716 I want to make that really clear. Like I know, 0:22:12.796 --> 0:22:15.116 for me, like the things that I thought that I 0:22:15.156 --> 0:22:17.516 wanted for myself in my twenties are like very different 0:22:17.516 --> 0:22:20.756 than the things that I wanted for myself in my thirties. Yeah, 0:22:20.796 --> 0:22:25.596 So what's interesting there is that if somebody else were 0:22:25.636 --> 0:22:29.276 to look at the path you're on, like if somebody 0:22:29.276 --> 0:22:31.116