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Speaker 1: Pushkin. Hey there. This week, we're going to replay our

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Speaker 1: most popular science episode. Professional poker player and cognitive scientist

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Speaker 1: Annie Duke talks about the science of quitting. Annie just

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Speaker 1: published the book she was writing when we first recorded

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Speaker 1: our conversation. It's called Quit, The Power of Knowing When

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Speaker 1: to Walk Away, and fun fact, I'm one of the

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Speaker 1: characters in the book. In this episode, Annie offers a

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Speaker 1: helpful roadmap for making better decisions and mastering the skill

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Speaker 1: of quitting. I wanted to share this episode again as

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Speaker 1: we enter the holiday season because it's a time when

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Speaker 1: many of us reflect on past choices and think through

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Speaker 1: what's up ahead. I've kept Annie's wisdom front and center,

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Speaker 1: and I hope you will too. Next week we'll be

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Speaker 1: back with more new episodes of season five. Of a

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Speaker 1: slight change of plans, I'll see then. What I found

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Speaker 1: out is that like there's all these like great words

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Speaker 1: for grit, including like heroism, right like steadfast, right like perseverance,

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Speaker 1: Like grit is one of those words that's like a

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Speaker 1: super super positive connotation, like sticktuitiveness. But when you look

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Speaker 1: at quit, there's hardly any words that like are nice.

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Speaker 1: And in fact, one of the synonyms for quit is

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Speaker 1: the word coward. Annie Duke knows a lot about quitting.

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Speaker 1: It's something she got really good at when she was

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Speaker 1: a professional poker player on the world stage, and a

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Speaker 1: really successful one at that. We're talking over four million

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Speaker 1: dollars in prize money. And what distinguishes great poker players

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Speaker 1: from everybody else is that is mainly quitting. They quit

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Speaker 1: a lot more. So they're just very good at cutting

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Speaker 1: their losses, so they fold more hands to start. Once

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Speaker 1: they've committed money to a pot, they fold a lot more.

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Speaker 1: They change tactics or strategies like in the middle of things,

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Speaker 1: and you have to be willing to do that. Annie's

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Speaker 1: rallying cry is that we should quit a lot more.

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Speaker 1: I know it's not something we hear often, and that's

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Speaker 1: exactly why I've been so excited to have Annie on

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Speaker 1: this show, to teach us something that goes against common

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Speaker 1: wisdom but can actually change our lives for the better.

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Speaker 1: Annie's the best selling author of two books, Thinking in

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Speaker 1: Bets and How to Decide, But today she's going to

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Speaker 1: give us a sneak peek of her upcoming book on

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Speaker 1: the science of quitting. She'll show us how to get

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Speaker 1: out of her own way and learn how to quit

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Speaker 1: when we should. I'm maya Shunker, and this is a

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Speaker 1: slight change of plans, a show about who we are

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Speaker 1: and who we become in the face of a big change.

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Speaker 1: Poker wasn't always in the cards for Annie. She actually

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Speaker 1: started out at the University of Pennsylvania studying cognitive science,

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Speaker 1: specifically how we make decisions and times of uncertainty. I

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Speaker 1: was fully intending to become a professor, which is kind

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Speaker 1: of what you do with that kind of degree. It

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Speaker 1: doesn't have a whole lot of practical application, and I

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Speaker 1: actually had all of my what are called job talks

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Speaker 1: lined up, and I've been struggling for a couple of

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Speaker 1: months with a stomach problem, and I thought, I'm just

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Speaker 1: going to power through this, and it turned out that

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Speaker 1: my body said no, you can't power through it. And

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Speaker 1: in fact, the powering through it meant that I ended

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Speaker 1: up in the hospital because I sort of wasn't taking

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Speaker 1: care of this problem, and so I was in the

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Speaker 1: hospital for a couple of weeks, very sick. So I

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Speaker 1: decided to take a year off to try to recuperate,

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Speaker 1: and there was a little bit of a bind right,

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Speaker 1: because so I've been forced to quit for a year

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Speaker 1: and I can't I don't want to start a new

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Speaker 1: career because I'm going to go back and become an

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Speaker 1: academic and I don't know how I'm going to feel

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Speaker 1: from day today. So I need something that has like

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Speaker 1: super flexible hours. And I really desperately need money, because

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Speaker 1: it turns out when you leave graduate school for a year,

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Speaker 1: your fellowship does not leave with you. You give it up. Yeah. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: So I did not have any money. So my brother

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Speaker 1: actually suggested to me that I could play poker and

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Speaker 1: that that might be like the perfect thing for me

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Speaker 1: to do because obviously I could set my own hours,

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Speaker 1: and you know, I could just do it to make

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Speaker 1: some money on the side. And you know what, I

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Speaker 1: just I sat down at the table and it was like,

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Speaker 1: you know, when like in the movies, I'll have like

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Speaker 1: the heavens open up and the angels are singing. It

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Speaker 1: felt a little bit like that to me, because when

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Speaker 1: I thought about what I've been studying a graduate school,

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Speaker 1: this was that, in other words, this problem of how

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Speaker 1: do you make really great decisions under uncertainty, and poker

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Speaker 1: is like super uncertain You can't see the other players cards,

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Speaker 1: and in the short run there's a really really strong

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Speaker 1: influence of luck, which makes the decision making problem really hard,

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Speaker 1: and it's really high stakes in real time. And sort

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Speaker 1: of from the moment I sat down at the table,

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Speaker 1: it turned out I had a knack for it. So

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Speaker 1: I didn't actually end up going back to graduate school

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Speaker 1: because I loved this so much and I was experiencing

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Speaker 1: a lot of success. Within a couple of years, I'd

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Speaker 1: played at the World Series of Poker, I was making

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Speaker 1: final tables, I cashed in the main event, ended up

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Speaker 1: moving to Las Vegas, and this is what I really

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Speaker 1: concentrated on for quite a while. And then in two

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Speaker 1: thousand and two there was a new aha, which was

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Speaker 1: that there was this amazing conversation to be had between

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Speaker 1: cognitive science and poker, a poker sort of informing the

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Speaker 1: cognitive science and the cognitive science informing the poker. So

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Speaker 1: I started consulting and speaking full time and really wanted

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Speaker 1: to write a book about these topics that I had

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Speaker 1: really been exploring. So it looks like I've changed careers

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Speaker 1: a lot, you know, from academic to poker player to

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Speaker 1: speaker and consultant to author back to academic it seems

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Speaker 1: like a lot of zigging and zagging, but there's this

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Speaker 1: through line through everything, which is learning under uncertainty. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: so quitting gets such a bad rep right. And you know,

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Speaker 1: one of the things that I loved learning from you

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Speaker 1: is that it's evident, even in the English language, that

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Speaker 1: we are biased against quitting. Can you share more about that? Sure?

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Speaker 1: So you have hero as a synonym, like heroism is

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Speaker 1: a synonym for grittiness, and then cowardice as a synonym

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Speaker 1: for quitting. And also, just by the way, one of

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Speaker 1: the things I point out is we have this word grittiness,

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Speaker 1: but we don't have a word quittiness, which is telling

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Speaker 1: in and of itself. Right. So obviously there are some

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Speaker 1: negative ways to describe being too gritty, like stubbornness or rigidity,

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Speaker 1: but they're few and far between. Mostly they're like amazing, like, oh,

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Speaker 1: you're such a hero, You're so gritty, you have perseverance, sticktuitiveness, pluck,

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Speaker 1: you're very plucky, right of metal. And then on the quickside,

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Speaker 1: it's just like you're a coward, right, You're capricious, like

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Speaker 1: all of these things. So I think that it's really

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Speaker 1: reflected in the English language. And then it's kind of

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Speaker 1: reflected in if you think about the way that we

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Speaker 1: process a narrative, right, we don't really see the quitters.

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Speaker 1: Like what we think about is the people the heroes

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Speaker 1: are the ones who persevere beyond the point of physical

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Speaker 1: or emotional or mental well being in order to push

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Speaker 1: past that and like cross the chasm. But the problem,

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Speaker 1: of course is that a lot of times those people

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Speaker 1: have put themselves in danger in a situation where you

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Speaker 1: really ought to have turned around. And what I think

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Speaker 1: is really interesting, and I talk about this in the book,

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Speaker 1: is that from a narrative standpoint, we'd prefer somebody to

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Speaker 1: push past the point of sensibility and persevere and actually

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Speaker 1: perish to somebody who rightly quits early, Like, which do

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Speaker 1: you think of is the more admirable person. So one

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Speaker 1: of the examples, like I've given the book is if

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Speaker 1: you think about Everest, right when we think about somebody

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Speaker 1: like Rob Hall. So for those people who don't know,

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Speaker 1: like if you've read the book Into Thin Air or

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Speaker 1: you've seen the documentary Everest. This was in nineteen ninety

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Speaker 1: six and there was a it was a disastrous year

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Speaker 1: where a lot of people died on the mountain on

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Speaker 1: everest and Rob Hall, who was this amazing alpinist and

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Speaker 1: expedition leader, was one of those people who perished, and

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Speaker 1: he is very much painted as a hero of that story.

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Speaker 1: He had set turnaround times for every single day, and

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Speaker 1: a turnaround time is just if you haven't gotten to

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Speaker 1: point A by this time, you must turn around and

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Speaker 1: go back to whatever camp you're coming from. The reason

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Speaker 1: being that there's a very very dangerous part of that

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Speaker 1: mountain called the South Ridge, and you do not want

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Speaker 1: to descend the South Ridge in darkness. You'll fall like

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Speaker 1: eight thousand feet into Nepal. And Rob Hall broke the

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Speaker 1: turnaround time, so you know, and obviously it resulted in tragedy.

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Speaker 1: And what's really interesting is that there were some people

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Speaker 1: who followed the turnaround time who are also described in

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Speaker 1: the book. They're also in the documentary, and nobody remembers

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Speaker 1: their names, just so you know, Touching Santaski and Kaciki.

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Speaker 1: These are three people who turned around at the right

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Speaker 1: time and made these great decisions, and they're totally invisible

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Speaker 1: to us because they aren't the heroes of our narratives.

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Speaker 1: And that's part of the problem. Like, how do you

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Speaker 1: get people like that to be the hero of your narrative? Yeah? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: can you also just close the loot for listeners on

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Speaker 1: Rob Hall? So just noting that the reason he did

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Speaker 1: not follow the turnaround times he was trying to help

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Speaker 1: this guy get up had previously not been able to

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Speaker 1: get up, And do you mind just sharing that because

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Speaker 1: I think that's such an emotionally evocative part of the story,

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Speaker 1: which is like we can't quit a second time, you know. Yeah? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: So Rob Paul actually got to the top, but then

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Speaker 1: he waited there for two hours for a guy named

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Speaker 1: Doug Hanson. And the question is why, right, Like why

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Speaker 1: why he was already an hour passed the turnaround time.

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Speaker 1: Doug Hanson clearly was well passed the turnaround time and

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Speaker 1: was not nearly as skill the climber as Rob Hall was,

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Speaker 1: So why didn't he turn around? And you have to

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Speaker 1: rewind to the year before to understand kind of what

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Speaker 1: the forces were that caused him to do that. So

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Speaker 1: the year before was a very bad climbing year. So

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Speaker 1: Rob Hall had tried to sum up with a group

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Speaker 1: and Doug Hanson was in the group and they came

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Speaker 1: back down, so they had abandoned their summit attempt. So

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Speaker 1: now he convinces Doug Hanson to come back the next

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Speaker 1: year because he says, I'll get you up the second time.

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Speaker 1: And now we can see these forces like this is

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Speaker 1: one of the big forces that causes us to not quit.

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Speaker 1: And the phrase that I think is such a great

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Speaker 1: phrase for us to really internalize it is called in

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Speaker 1: the losses. So when we're in the losses, we have

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Speaker 1: the desire to get those back, and we don't think about, well,

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Speaker 1: what's the probability that I would actually be able to succeed?

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Speaker 1: That's number one. We don't think about if I go

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Speaker 1: for this, what are the opportunities I'm going to give

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Speaker 1: up by going for it? Right, And that's true of

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Speaker 1: anything like if you're in an monogamous relationship, you're obviously

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Speaker 1: foregoing the opportunities to date other people. If you're in

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Speaker 1: a job, you're foregoing the other opportunities to have other

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Speaker 1: full time jobs. So this is a really actually big

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Speaker 1: problem is that we tend not to see what we're

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Speaker 1: giving up in terms of the other opportunities that might

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Speaker 1: be available to us when we're on a particular path.

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Speaker 1: So if you think about climbing everest. When we're thinking

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Speaker 1: about trying to reach the summit, it causes this like myopia,

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Speaker 1: we can't see like other things, other opportunities that we

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Speaker 1: might have in our life, like to climb other mountains,

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Speaker 1: or to spend time with our families, or whatever it

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Speaker 1: else it is we might want to do that that

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Speaker 1: pursuing that goal might actually make less likely for us

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Speaker 1: to be able to do exactly. Okay, so Annie, I'd

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Speaker 1: love to dig into some of the behavioral biases we

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Speaker 1: face that interfere with our ability to quit when we

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Speaker 1: ought to do. You mind talking with listeners about escalation

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Speaker 1: of commitment? Sure? Have you ever heard of the game Katamari? So?

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Speaker 1: Katamari is a game where it's the weirdest game. You

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Speaker 1: start with this little tiny speck of something and you

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Speaker 1: roll it around and it starts to pick stuff up,

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Speaker 1: and if it picks things up that are smaller than

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Speaker 1: it is, it will pick it up and it will

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Speaker 1: grow in size. If you try to pick something up

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Speaker 1: that's bigger than the ball that you're rolling around, it

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Speaker 1: will cause the ball to become smaller again. So the

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Speaker 1: ideas you're trying to create a ball that's big enough

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Speaker 1: that you can start picking up planet and it becomes

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Speaker 1: like the size of a son. So you start off

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Speaker 1: with this little ball that's like picking up specs of

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Speaker 1: dust and flies, and you're rolling it around like in

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Speaker 1: a room, and you're like pick. Then you start picking

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Speaker 1: up bottles, you pick up the cat, you know, you

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Speaker 1: pick up like the couch, and then you start picking

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Speaker 1: up houses, and you can pick up mountains, and this

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Speaker 1: thing just becomes bigger and bigger and bigger. And when

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Speaker 1: I think about what happens to us that we don't quit,

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Speaker 1: I think about Katamari because I think that it's such

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Speaker 1: a great visual for understanding escalation of commitment. And it

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Speaker 1: basically goes this way. You put time, resources, money, your

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Speaker 1: own identity. Right Like if you think about a career

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Speaker 1: or a major, it becomes part of your identity. Who

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Speaker 1: am I? I'm a doctor? Who am I? You know?

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Speaker 1: I am an English major or I'm an engineer or whatever. Right,

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Speaker 1: these things become part of our identity. And then we're

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Speaker 1: putting time and effort and money and all of this

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Speaker 1: stuff resources into this thing. Those the fact that we've

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Speaker 1: dumped all of that into the decision to be on

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Speaker 1: the path that we're on means that when we're faced

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Speaker 1: with a decision about whether to quit or persevere, we're

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Speaker 1: going to have a tendency to persevere because we've accumulated

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Speaker 1: all of this debris like a Katamari ball. But what's

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Speaker 1: interesting is that the fact that that pushes us to

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Speaker 1: persevere means that now we persevere, and now we put

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Speaker 1: more time and more effort and more money and more

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Speaker 1: resources and more of our identity into the thing that

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Speaker 1: we're doing, which means that the next point that we're

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Speaker 1: thinking about whether to quit or persevere, the ball is bigger.

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Speaker 1: It's starting to become house sized, which makes us then

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Speaker 1: more likely to persevere again, and so on so forth,

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Speaker 1: until you have like this katamari that's the size of

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Speaker 1: a planet, and you kind of can't quit at that point.

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Speaker 1: So now if we go back to Rob Haul, we

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Speaker 1: can see the problem right because he's carrying a lot

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Speaker 1: of that with him. He failed the year before, He's

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Speaker 1: made a promise to Doug Hanson and that he's going

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Speaker 1: to get him up, and that causes this myopia for

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Speaker 1: him to sort of, I think, not to see the

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Speaker 1: situation for what it is, which is one that you

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Speaker 1: should quit, go back down the mountain, grab Doug Hanson,

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Speaker 1: and then you know, maybe you have a chance the

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Speaker 1: next year. I'm wondering, Annie, if you can talk a

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Speaker 1: bit about the role of regret and all this, because

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Speaker 1: there is a regret asymmetry that's important to acknowledge here,

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Speaker 1: which is, we tend to feel a lot of regret

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Speaker 1: when we think about the idea of quitting, but somehow

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Speaker 1: staying with the status quo does not fill us with

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Speaker 1: those same feelings of regret. And so can you just

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Speaker 1: talk to listeners a bit about regret asymmetry generally and

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Speaker 1: how that plays a profound role in our conception of quitting. Right,

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Speaker 1: it's an antagonist towards quitting. Yeah. So there's two really

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Speaker 1: important biases to think about because they collide here when

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Speaker 1: it comes to quitting. The first cognitive bias is called

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Speaker 1: status quo bias. Status quo bias is that we have

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Speaker 1: a preference for the path that we're already on. Okay,

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Speaker 1: so we don't like to change. We have a preference

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Speaker 1: to keep going the way that we're going. That collides

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Speaker 1: with another bias, which is called omission comission bias, and

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Speaker 1: what that is is that failing to act does not

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Speaker 1: feel as much like a decision as acting does. Right, So,

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Speaker 1: let's say that I'm in a career or I'm in

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Speaker 1: a relationship and I just stay the path. It doesn't

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Speaker 1: feel like I've made a decision. If I move, if

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Speaker 1: I quit my job and change, if I break up

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Speaker 1: in the relationship, now it feels like I've actually made

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Speaker 1: a decision. Now. The reason why this is an error

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Speaker 1: is because the decision to stay in the job is

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Speaker 1: also an active decision, and you should treat it the

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Speaker 1: same way like our regret treats those two things differently. Okay,

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Speaker 1: so let say that you're in a job that is

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Speaker 1: just awful. I have had conversations with people quite often

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Speaker 1: where this happens. They come to me and they say,

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Speaker 1: I really hate my job. I'm trying to decide whether

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Speaker 1: I should quit. I don't really know what I should do.

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Speaker 1: And I ask them this question. Imagine it's a year

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Speaker 1: from now and you're still in the job that you're in.

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Speaker 1: Do you think you'll be happy? And they say no.

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Speaker 1: So what they're telling me is that one hundred percent

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Speaker 1: of the time, twelve months from now, I will be

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Speaker 1: unhappy in the job. That I'm in. So now I

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Speaker 1: say to them, Okay, let's say that you quit this

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Speaker 1: job and you go get this other job that you're

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Speaker 1: thinking about. Imagine it's a year from now. Do you

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Speaker 1: think you'll be happy? And they'll say, well, some of

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Speaker 1: the time, you know, they'll say, let's just say they

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Speaker 1: say it's a fifty fifty chance. Okay, So they say,

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Speaker 1: if I switch fifty percent of the time, I'll be happy.

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Speaker 1: Fifty percent of the time I won't. Now, when I

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Speaker 1: put it that way, it becomes obvious that you ought

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Speaker 1: to quit because one path you're unhappy one hundred percent

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Speaker 1: of the time, and another path you're unhappy fifty percent

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Speaker 1: of the time. So it seems clear that you ought

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Speaker 1: to go take the other job. But this is where

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Speaker 1: the regret asymmetry comes in, which is like, we're very

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Speaker 1: tolerant of the unhappiness that occurs and just staying the course,

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Speaker 1: and we're very intolerant of the unhappiness that might occur

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Speaker 1: if we switch, and that they'll actually express that out loud.

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Speaker 1: They'll say, but what if I take the new job

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Speaker 1: and I'm unhappy, I'll feel like such an idiot Versus

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Speaker 1: staying the job. That I know I hate, and I

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Speaker 1: already know have evidence I'm unhappy in. Yeah. Right, we'll

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Speaker 1: be back in a moment with a slight change of

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Speaker 1: plans when Annie will share scientific strategies you can use

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Speaker 1: to quit more often and sooner. One of the things

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Speaker 1: that you said before that really struck me is around

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Speaker 1: this concept of identity. And the reason is that so

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Speaker 1: much of a slight change of plans is about our identity,

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Speaker 1: how fixed we can feel in our sense of identity

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Speaker 1: in the face of a big change, and how it

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Speaker 1: is that we can navigate that. And one of the

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Speaker 1: things you alluded to is we can sometimes resist quitting

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Speaker 1: even when we know we ought to, because we attach

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Speaker 1: that pursuit so closely to our identity, or we take

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Speaker 1: so much pride in our identity as good decision makers,

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Speaker 1: we don't like the idea of having it revealed to

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Speaker 1: us that maybe we didn't actually make a great decision

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Speaker 1: in the first place when we decided to do X

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Speaker 1: or Y. And I'm wondering if you have tips for

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Speaker 1: listeners about how it is that we can disentangle our

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Speaker 1: sense of identity from these kinds of decisions or from

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Speaker 1: the attachment we have towards certain pursuits so that we

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Speaker 1: can make clear choices, more rational choices at these inflection points.

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Speaker 1: So you talked about like, it's really hard for us

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Speaker 1: to imagine that we made a bad decision, so we

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Speaker 1: won't give it up. But I also want to add

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Speaker 1: in there, sometimes we made a perfectly good decision but

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Speaker 1: the circumstances have changed. But in that situation, we don't

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Speaker 1: want to give up because somehow we think it invalidates

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Speaker 1: the decision that we made in the first place, which

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Speaker 1: isn't true. Remember, we're making decisions under uncertainty. And I

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Speaker 1: think that's part of the problem is we forget that

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Speaker 1: there's a third possibility, which is you made a perfectly

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Speaker 1: fine decision and then you found out new stuff. And

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Speaker 1: that's also by the true in relationships, like given what

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Speaker 1: you knew at the time, it seems like a really

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Speaker 1: good match, and then you found out new stuff, like

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Speaker 1: that person might have changed. I think that's incredibly important

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Speaker 1: for people to understand, is that sometimes stuff just changes.

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Speaker 1: It's okay, doesn't mean that you that you messed up

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Speaker 1: in the first place, and very often most of the

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Speaker 1: time you didn't mess up in the first place, Like

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Speaker 1: if you put a sign on your lawn for a

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Speaker 1: candidate and then the candidate gets involved in some scandal,

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Speaker 1: it doesn't mean it was like it was a bad

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Speaker 1: decision for you to vote for them in the first

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Speaker 1: place because you didn't know. Yeah, And I love the

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Speaker 1: thought experiment that you give, which I think elucidates this

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Speaker 1: concept well, which is when you ask people what's the

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Speaker 1: best decision you've ever made, what's the worst decision you've

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Speaker 1: ever made? We tend to not focus on the process

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Speaker 1: by which we made the decision or the inputs to

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Speaker 1: that decision, but instead what the outcome was. So what

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Speaker 1: you found is you asked people what was the best decision, Well,

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Speaker 1: they tend to choose the thing that had the best outcome,

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Speaker 1: and vice versa for the bad one. And it's very possible,

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Speaker 1: like you said that, let's say you made actually a

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Speaker 1: really crappy decision, but you just lucked out right, like

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Speaker 1: chance worked in your favor and new information appeared or whatnot,

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Speaker 1: and you ended up with a good outcome. But I

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Speaker 1: think that is a really helpful thought experiment because to

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Speaker 1: your point, you might have very well made the decision

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Speaker 1: to take on a pursuit or support a certain candidate,

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Speaker 1: and it was a very smart choice given all the

393
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Speaker 1: information you had had at that moment, or by the

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Speaker 1: way your own preferences can change. I just want to like,

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Speaker 1: I want to make that really clear. Like I know,

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Speaker 1: for me, like the things that I thought that I

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Speaker 1: wanted for myself in my twenties are like very different

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Speaker 1: than the things that I wanted for myself in my thirties. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: So what's interesting there is that if somebody else were

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Speaker 1: to look at the path you're on, like if somebody

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Speaker 1: else were to look at the decision about whether you

402
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Speaker 1: should sell that stock, or the decision about whether you

403
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Speaker 1: should change careers, they'll often see that more clearly than

404
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Speaker 1: you because they're not endowed to it. If you have

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Speaker 1: somebody else looking at the decision, they don't have this,

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Speaker 1: they don't have the dissonance. They don't. They don't they're

407
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Speaker 1: not worried about squaring your past actions with your future

408
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Speaker 1: actions or your present actions. They're just worried about whether

409
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Speaker 1: it's sort of the best decision for you going forward.

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Speaker 1: So you can see that getting somebody else to look

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Speaker 1: at the decision and help you with it is actually

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Speaker 1: going to be really helpful. So, as the amazing Daniel

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Speaker 1: Conneman know about Laureate said to me, you should find

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Speaker 1: someone who loves you but doesn't care about your feelings.

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Speaker 1: Love that, just like, present the situation to somebody else

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Speaker 1: in an objective way and have them help you. So, like,

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Speaker 1: in the simplest sense, if you're thinking about changing jobs

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Speaker 1: and you're really struggling with that for all of these

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Speaker 1: reasons and the whole Katamari, right, like that, all of

420
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Speaker 1: that debris that you're accumulating when you're thinking about changing

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Speaker 1: careers after like you know, fifteen years and training in

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Speaker 1: college and all of this stuff, have someone else help

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Speaker 1: you with the decision. They'll probably see it more clearly

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Speaker 1: than you do. So that's like trick number one. Trick

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Speaker 1: number two is to set the circumstances under which you

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Speaker 1: might quit in advance of you having accumulated any of

427
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Speaker 1: that debris when the Katamari is just really tiny and

428
00:23:52,596 --> 00:23:55,716
Speaker 1: it's not planet sized yet, right, So if we can

429
00:23:55,796 --> 00:23:59,436
Speaker 1: do that when it's tiny and we haven't actually accumulated

430
00:23:59,476 --> 00:24:03,236
Speaker 1: all of that stuff, then when it comes time to quitting,

431
00:24:03,236 --> 00:24:04,596
Speaker 1: will be better at it. So let me give you

432
00:24:04,676 --> 00:24:08,276
Speaker 1: a really good example of deciding in advance turnaround times.

433
00:24:10,116 --> 00:24:14,516
Speaker 1: So remember our intrepid climbers on Everest who turned around

434
00:24:14,596 --> 00:24:20,076
Speaker 1: at one pm. Now, notice those three climbers did, but

435
00:24:20,156 --> 00:24:21,956
Speaker 1: a lot of other people did it. So this is

436
00:24:21,996 --> 00:24:24,996
Speaker 1: not perfect. Right, It's not going to work one hundred

437
00:24:24,996 --> 00:24:26,796
Speaker 1: percent of the time. But if they didn't have those

438
00:24:26,836 --> 00:24:29,596
Speaker 1: turnaround time, those three people would not have turned around.

439
00:24:29,636 --> 00:24:31,396
Speaker 1: So it works some of the time, and some of

440
00:24:31,396 --> 00:24:33,396
Speaker 1: the time last time I checked, is better than none

441
00:24:33,396 --> 00:24:35,956
Speaker 1: of the time. So one of the things that we

442
00:24:35,996 --> 00:24:37,756
Speaker 1: want to do when we go in, whether it's a

443
00:24:37,796 --> 00:24:40,876
Speaker 1: relationship or a job or anything, is we want to

444
00:24:40,876 --> 00:24:44,116
Speaker 1: sort of think before we enter into it, what are

445
00:24:44,156 --> 00:24:46,876
Speaker 1: the things that could be occurring that would cause me

446
00:24:46,956 --> 00:24:52,556
Speaker 1: to want to quit? Here another tactic, another strategy we

447
00:24:52,596 --> 00:24:55,356
Speaker 1: can use to quit closer to when we should is

448
00:24:55,996 --> 00:24:58,836
Speaker 1: to increase the flexibility and how we set goals. Right,

449
00:24:58,916 --> 00:25:01,916
Speaker 1: we tend to think about the world in binaries. Right,

450
00:25:02,076 --> 00:25:05,116
Speaker 1: you got to the top amount Everest, or you didn't

451
00:25:05,116 --> 00:25:07,596
Speaker 1: get to the time. You completely fail exactly, even though

452
00:25:07,636 --> 00:25:09,956
Speaker 1: you may have gotten seven eighths of the way there.

453
00:25:10,436 --> 00:25:13,036
Speaker 1: And I think this is compounded by what's called the

454
00:25:13,076 --> 00:25:16,596
Speaker 1: goal gradient effect, which says that we see increases in

455
00:25:16,676 --> 00:25:20,276
Speaker 1: our motivational levels the closer we are to reaching our goal. Right,

456
00:25:20,356 --> 00:25:23,716
Speaker 1: So in that seven eighth stretch of the mountain, right,

457
00:25:24,076 --> 00:25:27,796
Speaker 1: our will, our desire is amplified in ways that can

458
00:25:27,796 --> 00:25:30,556
Speaker 1: be very counterproductive. So can you talk a bit more

459
00:25:30,596 --> 00:25:34,236
Speaker 1: about how listeners can set I guess what I would

460
00:25:34,236 --> 00:25:36,956
Speaker 1: call more reasonable goals so that we don't find ourselves

461
00:25:36,996 --> 00:25:40,036
Speaker 1: between a rock and a hard place. Yeah, so okay,

462
00:25:40,116 --> 00:25:44,836
Speaker 1: So there's this amazing work by Maurice Schweitzer who's at

463
00:25:44,876 --> 00:25:49,876
Speaker 1: Wharton at University of Pennsylvania, who he's really talked about.

464
00:25:49,916 --> 00:25:51,836
Speaker 1: You know, I think that we have this idea that

465
00:25:51,876 --> 00:25:54,996
Speaker 1: goals are just generally good, like as a universal right.

466
00:25:55,036 --> 00:25:57,556
Speaker 1: Like there's all this literature and goal setting as a

467
00:25:57,596 --> 00:26:00,996
Speaker 1: motivational force, and he's coming at it from the other side.

468
00:26:01,036 --> 00:26:03,076
Speaker 1: He's saying, there's a real downside to coals, which is

469
00:26:03,116 --> 00:26:05,556
Speaker 1: exactly what you talked about, which is, when you have

470
00:26:05,596 --> 00:26:08,276
Speaker 1: a goal, it does two things to you. One is

471
00:26:08,276 --> 00:26:12,836
Speaker 1: it necessarily privileges certain values that you might have and

472
00:26:12,956 --> 00:26:17,476
Speaker 1: de privileges other values that you might have. So super simple,

473
00:26:17,596 --> 00:26:22,276
Speaker 1: if you're going for everest, you're privileging that goal, right,

474
00:26:22,316 --> 00:26:23,716
Speaker 1: Like I want to get to Everest, but what are

475
00:26:23,716 --> 00:26:30,156
Speaker 1: you deprivileging comfort? You're deprivileging time with your family because

476
00:26:30,196 --> 00:26:33,556
Speaker 1: it takes months to do it away from your family, right,

477
00:26:34,476 --> 00:26:36,796
Speaker 1: so and so forth. So you can see that whatever

478
00:26:36,876 --> 00:26:40,676
Speaker 1: we're doing, you know, if we're spending time trying to

479
00:26:41,196 --> 00:26:43,916
Speaker 1: do that last stretch of a project, we're deprivileging other

480
00:26:43,956 --> 00:26:46,076
Speaker 1: goals that we might have, like spending time with our

481
00:26:46,116 --> 00:26:50,436
Speaker 1: family or watching ted Lasso or cook taking a cooking

482
00:26:50,476 --> 00:26:53,236
Speaker 1: class or whatever it is. So I think that we

483
00:26:53,276 --> 00:26:56,396
Speaker 1: need to be very thoughtful about if when I think

484
00:26:56,396 --> 00:26:58,876
Speaker 1: about this goal, first of all, what am I not

485
00:26:58,916 --> 00:27:03,316
Speaker 1: seeing and what am I giving up that I'm following

486
00:27:03,316 --> 00:27:06,516
Speaker 1: this goal? And then we also collide that with goals

487
00:27:06,636 --> 00:27:10,196
Speaker 1: or also past fail So in a lot of ways,

488
00:27:10,836 --> 00:27:12,996
Speaker 1: it's better to have never tried to go up Everest

489
00:27:13,036 --> 00:27:15,316
Speaker 1: at all than to have gotten within three hundred feet

490
00:27:15,316 --> 00:27:20,316
Speaker 1: of the summit and turned around. So that's also a problem. Yeah,

491
00:27:20,556 --> 00:27:22,236
Speaker 1: all right, So how do we solve for this? There's

492
00:27:22,276 --> 00:27:24,396
Speaker 1: kind of two ways that we solve for it. So

493
00:27:24,956 --> 00:27:26,996
Speaker 1: the first way that we can do is to remember

494
00:27:26,996 --> 00:27:31,116
Speaker 1: the word unless. And this is really important and it

495
00:27:31,156 --> 00:27:34,356
Speaker 1: goes back to this idea that I was talking about before,

496
00:27:34,516 --> 00:27:37,556
Speaker 1: of think about these things in advance, right, So it's

497
00:27:37,636 --> 00:27:44,916
Speaker 1: totally fine to say this is my goal unless right, so,

498
00:27:45,636 --> 00:27:49,916
Speaker 1: my goal is to reach the summit unless there's really

499
00:27:49,956 --> 00:27:54,516
Speaker 1: bad weather or it's past one pm. So this idea

500
00:27:54,636 --> 00:27:57,236
Speaker 1: of this is my goal unless allows you to say

501
00:27:59,036 --> 00:28:01,596
Speaker 1: I am set in this goal given what my information

502
00:28:01,716 --> 00:28:05,916
Speaker 1: is right now. The second thing I think so I

503
00:28:06,036 --> 00:28:10,276
Speaker 1: was speaking to Ken Kamler, who really amazing. He had

504
00:28:10,276 --> 00:28:13,116
Speaker 1: been a doctor on Everest actually six different times, and

505
00:28:13,196 --> 00:28:16,556
Speaker 1: he said something I think that was really profound. He said,

506
00:28:16,596 --> 00:28:19,676
Speaker 1: people forget when they're climbing Everest that the goal of

507
00:28:19,676 --> 00:28:22,596
Speaker 1: Everest is not to get to the summit. The goal

508
00:28:22,676 --> 00:28:24,316
Speaker 1: is to get back down to the base of the mountain.

509
00:28:26,356 --> 00:28:28,676
Speaker 1: And why I think that that's so powerful is that

510
00:28:28,716 --> 00:28:32,676
Speaker 1: he's talking about a time horizon. Problem is that we

511
00:28:32,716 --> 00:28:34,476
Speaker 1: get really wrapped up in the short term a loot

512
00:28:34,556 --> 00:28:37,876
Speaker 1: when we ought to be thinking about the long term

513
00:28:37,916 --> 00:28:39,916
Speaker 1: what is going to make us happy? Like if you're

514
00:28:39,956 --> 00:28:41,476
Speaker 1: going to set a goal, you should think about a

515
00:28:41,476 --> 00:28:43,836
Speaker 1: long term goal, like what is your goal over the

516
00:28:43,836 --> 00:28:47,196
Speaker 1: course of your life, And in the shortest form that

517
00:28:47,236 --> 00:28:51,516
Speaker 1: should be like to maximize your happiness. So as you're

518
00:28:51,556 --> 00:28:56,716
Speaker 1: staying in an incredibly miserable career because you've put so

519
00:28:56,796 --> 00:28:59,876
Speaker 1: much time into it and so much effort, and you

520
00:28:59,916 --> 00:29:01,676
Speaker 1: don't want all of that to go to waste, and

521
00:29:01,716 --> 00:29:03,356
Speaker 1: you don't want all the training to go to waste,

522
00:29:03,396 --> 00:29:06,796
Speaker 1: and you're worried that what does it mean if you

523
00:29:06,876 --> 00:29:09,596
Speaker 1: quit for who you are because you're an engineer or

524
00:29:09,636 --> 00:29:11,996
Speaker 1: you're whatever, And then what will you be if you quit?

525
00:29:12,596 --> 00:29:14,796
Speaker 1: And what will other people think about you? Won't they

526
00:29:14,876 --> 00:29:18,716
Speaker 1: judge you for quitting? And all of that stuff that

527
00:29:18,796 --> 00:29:22,876
Speaker 1: creates that planet sized katamuri that stops us from quitting.

528
00:29:23,596 --> 00:29:25,716
Speaker 1: When you're caught up in that, all of that stuff

529
00:29:25,796 --> 00:29:28,876
Speaker 1: is weighing so heavily on you, it makes it really

530
00:29:28,876 --> 00:29:33,036
Speaker 1: really hard to leave. But you're miserable. And if you

531
00:29:33,116 --> 00:29:37,276
Speaker 1: think about the long term goal of what in the end,

532
00:29:37,356 --> 00:29:39,436
Speaker 1: as I look back on my life is going to

533
00:29:39,516 --> 00:29:41,996
Speaker 1: have made me happy, I think that when you can

534
00:29:42,036 --> 00:29:44,876
Speaker 1: get to that more long term thinking, you'll realize that

535
00:29:44,956 --> 00:29:47,276
Speaker 1: grinding it out in a horrible career with a boss

536
00:29:47,316 --> 00:29:51,676
Speaker 1: who is a nightmare, in a toxic work environment is

537
00:29:51,676 --> 00:29:53,876
Speaker 1: not in the long run going to make you really happy.

538
00:29:55,316 --> 00:29:59,596
Speaker 1: So for our listeners who are having anxiety around quitting. Right,

539
00:29:59,916 --> 00:30:03,916
Speaker 1: I'm wondering it's not a foolproof plant. Right. I'm sure

540
00:30:03,956 --> 00:30:06,156
Speaker 1: there have been things that you may have regretted quitting

541
00:30:06,196 --> 00:30:08,676
Speaker 1: at some point in your life. But the upside is

542
00:30:08,676 --> 00:30:12,436
Speaker 1: that you probably learned something valuable about your own decision

543
00:30:12,476 --> 00:30:15,116
Speaker 1: making process and how to improve that decision making process

544
00:30:15,156 --> 00:30:17,756
Speaker 1: around quitting. So do you mind just sharing any regret

545
00:30:17,836 --> 00:30:19,676
Speaker 1: you have about something you quit, but what you learn

546
00:30:19,756 --> 00:30:24,796
Speaker 1: from that experience, you know. So the funny thing is

547
00:30:25,396 --> 00:30:29,556
Speaker 1: so so I actually I actually regret quitting academics in

548
00:30:29,596 --> 00:30:31,676
Speaker 1: the first place. Part of what made me not go

549
00:30:31,716 --> 00:30:34,436
Speaker 1: back to academics earlier was because I thought that all

550
00:30:34,476 --> 00:30:36,916
Speaker 1: the people that I had studied with would be mad

551
00:30:36,916 --> 00:30:42,076
Speaker 1: at me, including my amazing advisor, and I thought, oh,

552
00:30:42,076 --> 00:30:43,516
Speaker 1: she must you know. I just had it in my

553
00:30:43,556 --> 00:30:45,956
Speaker 1: head that she must be so mad at me for quitting.

554
00:30:46,476 --> 00:30:51,276
Speaker 1: And we reconnected ten years ago and she was so

555
00:30:51,316 --> 00:30:55,236
Speaker 1: the opposite of mad at me. And that is a

556
00:30:55,316 --> 00:30:57,716
Speaker 1: lesson that everybody needs to learn. It's like, whatever you

557
00:30:57,756 --> 00:30:59,756
Speaker 1: think that other people are thinking about you, it's probably

558
00:30:59,796 --> 00:31:03,116
Speaker 1: not what they're actually thinking. And I stopped myself from

559
00:31:03,356 --> 00:31:07,116
Speaker 1: I deprived myself of a really important relationship in my

560
00:31:07,156 --> 00:31:10,996
Speaker 1: life and the ability to actually be doing academics at

561
00:31:10,996 --> 00:31:12,716
Speaker 1: the same time as I was doing something else that

562
00:31:12,756 --> 00:31:16,076
Speaker 1: I loved in a much fuller way, because I got

563
00:31:16,116 --> 00:31:18,476
Speaker 1: caught up thinking about how other people might judge me.

564
00:31:18,916 --> 00:31:20,636
Speaker 1: And I think that's a lot of what stops us

565
00:31:20,676 --> 00:31:23,876
Speaker 1: from quitting. And when I came back to academics, everybody

566
00:31:23,916 --> 00:31:25,796
Speaker 1: welcomed me with open arms, and it was all living

567
00:31:25,836 --> 00:31:28,036
Speaker 1: in my head, and so I would say, that's like

568
00:31:28,076 --> 00:31:31,316
Speaker 1: the biggest lesson for me. I love that so much. Yeah,

569
00:31:31,356 --> 00:31:33,236
Speaker 1: And you know, to your point, I think so much

570
00:31:33,236 --> 00:31:35,716
Speaker 1: of your research and this upcoming book of yours is

571
00:31:35,716 --> 00:31:40,116
Speaker 1: about how we rehabilitate quitting. And I think as a society,

572
00:31:40,236 --> 00:31:42,796
Speaker 1: the way that we can change cultural norms around quitting

573
00:31:42,836 --> 00:31:45,916
Speaker 1: is to recognize the compassion people will show us in

574
00:31:45,956 --> 00:31:48,716
Speaker 1: the face of quitting and the lack of judgment that

575
00:31:48,836 --> 00:31:50,956
Speaker 1: you know that we think is going to exist in

576
00:31:50,996 --> 00:31:54,276
Speaker 1: our heads, as you mentioned, but doesn't necessarily need to

577
00:31:54,276 --> 00:31:57,276
Speaker 1: be the case. And I think that when you approach

578
00:31:57,356 --> 00:32:01,116
Speaker 1: things is an either or it becomes it puts a

579
00:32:01,156 --> 00:32:04,196
Speaker 1: lot of extra pressure on you that you're closing the

580
00:32:04,236 --> 00:32:06,956
Speaker 1: door to something and when I talk to people who,

581
00:32:07,116 --> 00:32:12,356
Speaker 1: for example, are about our thinking about like changing careers

582
00:32:12,836 --> 00:32:14,636
Speaker 1: and they're really having a hard time with it, one

583
00:32:14,676 --> 00:32:16,356
Speaker 1: of the things that I always ask them is can

584
00:32:16,396 --> 00:32:18,476
Speaker 1: you go back to the other career if this doesn't

585
00:32:18,516 --> 00:32:22,396
Speaker 1: work out? And they'll normally say yes, there's no reason

586
00:32:22,436 --> 00:32:24,676
Speaker 1: why they can't, and that seems to free them up

587
00:32:25,316 --> 00:32:27,356
Speaker 1: to make the change. And I think that we have

588
00:32:27,396 --> 00:32:29,916
Speaker 1: a tendency to think of decisions is last and final,

589
00:32:30,636 --> 00:32:33,516
Speaker 1: and in poker, you definitely can't think about it that way.

590
00:32:33,596 --> 00:32:35,556
Speaker 1: That's one of the things that poker trained me to

591
00:32:35,596 --> 00:32:38,516
Speaker 1: do is to realize decisions are not last and final,

592
00:32:39,276 --> 00:32:42,956
Speaker 1: and you can always change course mid stream and you

593
00:32:42,996 --> 00:32:46,116
Speaker 1: can often get back to choices that you rejected. And

594
00:32:47,196 --> 00:32:50,796
Speaker 1: if we realize that more, I think that we would

595
00:32:50,836 --> 00:32:53,036
Speaker 1: be more exploratory, and it would it would make our

596
00:32:53,036 --> 00:33:06,236
Speaker 1: outcomes better. Actually, A Slight Change of Plans is created, written,

597
00:33:06,276 --> 00:33:09,756
Speaker 1: and executive produced by me Maya Shunker. The best part

598
00:33:09,756 --> 00:33:12,036
Speaker 1: of creating this show is getting to collaborate with my

599
00:33:12,156 --> 00:33:16,956
Speaker 1: formidable Slight Change family. This includes Tyler Green, our senior producer,

600
00:33:17,276 --> 00:33:21,036
Speaker 1: Jen Guera, our senior editor, then Holiday, our sound engineer,

601
00:33:21,276 --> 00:33:25,756
Speaker 1: Emily Rosteck our associate producer, and Neil Lavelle, our executive producer.

602
00:33:26,396 --> 00:33:29,516
Speaker 1: Luis Skara wrote our delightful theme song, and Ginger Smith

603
00:33:29,596 --> 00:33:32,796
Speaker 1: helped arrange the vocals. A Slight Change of Plans is

604
00:33:32,836 --> 00:33:35,956
Speaker 1: a production of Pushkin Industries, so big thanks to everyone there,

605
00:33:37,076 --> 00:33:40,076
Speaker 1: and of course a very special thanks to Jimmy Lee.

606
00:33:40,796 --> 00:33:43,236
Speaker 1: You can follow A Slight Change of Plans on Instagram

607
00:33:43,276 --> 00:33:47,076
Speaker 1: at doctor Maya Schunker and please remember to subscribe, share,

608
00:33:47,116 --> 00:33:48,956
Speaker 1: and rate the show to help get the word out.

609
00:33:49,396 --> 00:33:53,116
Speaker 1: See you next week now. I just want to set

610
00:33:53,116 --> 00:33:55,516
Speaker 1: this stage for people, because this was in the nineties,

611
00:33:55,516 --> 00:33:58,516
Speaker 1: poker was not on TV, and pretty much every discussion

612
00:33:58,516 --> 00:33:59,956
Speaker 1: I had with people where they said what are you

613
00:33:59,996 --> 00:34:03,796
Speaker 1: doing right now and I said, well, employed poker usually well,

614
00:34:03,796 --> 00:34:06,596
Speaker 1: the first thing they would ask is is your husband rich? Which,

615
00:34:06,716 --> 00:34:09,676
Speaker 1: you know, this was in the nineties, It's like, wow,

616
00:34:09,716 --> 00:34:12,756
Speaker 1: that's super sexist. But then once they sort of figured

617
00:34:12,756 --> 00:34:16,796
Speaker 1: out no, like I was actually supporting supporting us with

618
00:34:16,916 --> 00:34:19,236
Speaker 1: this endeavor, they would usually ask if I had gone

619
00:34:19,236 --> 00:34:20,356
Speaker 1: to gamblers. Anonymous