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Speaker 1: The fabulous Ian Bremmer and what we all ought to

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Speaker 1: be worrying about. It's Armstrong and Getty extra large.

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Speaker 2: Because four hours simply.

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Speaker 3: This is Armstrong and Getty extra large. So Ian, we're

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Speaker 3: making this part of our podcast. The highlights will air

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Speaker 3: on the radio show are.

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Speaker 4: The reason we've had to put you on the podcast

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Speaker 4: is because of your merchant Marine foul mouth. I don't

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Speaker 4: know if you remember this from years ago. Play the clip, Michael, Yes,

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Speaker 4: you dropped an S bomb on our radio show, nearly

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Speaker 4: causing us to lose their jobs.

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Speaker 3: You have no self control. So now we're on. Now

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Speaker 3: we're on the podcast.

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Speaker 1: Wow I want.

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Speaker 2: Does that mean I can say whatever I want?

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Speaker 3: You can say shit shit shit? Yes, you're in good

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Speaker 3: shape Mouth.

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Speaker 1: I think you're better than that. But feel free also,

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Speaker 1: And before we get started in earnest, I don't know

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Speaker 1: if you remember this, Ian, but we have a bit

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Speaker 1: of unfinished business.

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Speaker 3: I remember one half of this.

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Speaker 2: Bet.

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Speaker 1: I bet you my thumbs that Joseph R. Biden would

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Speaker 1: not be the cannon date in November. I can't remember

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Speaker 1: if you put anything up, but I'm glad I get

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Speaker 1: to keep my thumbs.

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Speaker 2: I'm glad you get to keep your thumbs.

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Speaker 5: It was such an embarrassment and so clear that he

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Speaker 5: should have stepped down so much.

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Speaker 2: Earlier than he had.

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Speaker 5: And you know, the idea that he he somehow voluntarily,

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Speaker 5: you know, sort of for the grace of the country abdicated,

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Speaker 5: of course, is crazy. He was basically utterly forced and

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Speaker 5: still was dragging his feet at the very last day.

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Speaker 2: It was not a great moment for the country.

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Speaker 4: Well about you, But as a fan of a history,

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Speaker 4: I can't wait to read the books that are going

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Speaker 4: to be written about a lot of that decision making

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Speaker 4: and behind the scenes and people who knew and what

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Speaker 4: they knew and what they saw and didn't say, And

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Speaker 4: it's going to be unbelievable over the next twenty five

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Speaker 4: years to read it.

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Speaker 3: Sure.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, George Clooney apparently had the inside information.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, no kidding, and was in charge.

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Speaker 1: So Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group also its founder

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Speaker 1: political risk research and consulting firm, and every year they

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Speaker 1: put up put out the list of global risks which agreed,

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Speaker 1: disagree are both. Is just always such a great and

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Speaker 1: interesting read and we look forward to chatting with you

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Speaker 1: about it. Ian. Your first risk is funny because we

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Speaker 1: get your newsletter, the G zero, the email every day

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Speaker 1: or whatever you put it up. It hadn't occurred to

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Speaker 1: me to ask, what does G zero mean? Well, your

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Speaker 1: risk number one is the G zero wins. What are

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Speaker 1: we talking about.

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Speaker 5: We're talking about the law of the jungle, right, We're

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Speaker 5: talking which which, by the way, the jungle is a

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Speaker 5: great place for an apex predator, but it's not so

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Speaker 5: great if you're weak and not and don't have a

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Speaker 5: strong government.

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Speaker 2: And that's what we're seeing play out. We're seeing the.

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Speaker 5: United States embrace unilateralism, reject global rule of law, reject

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Speaker 5: the idea of being the world's policeman or the architect

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Speaker 5: of free trade or the promoter of democracy, and instead

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Speaker 5: say we're going to.

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Speaker 2: Do things the way we want to.

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Speaker 5: You guys are weaker, and you better get along with that.

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Speaker 5: And both America's adversaries and its allies are a lot

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Speaker 5: weaker right now, economically, technologically, militarily, and also in terms

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Speaker 5: of their governments just in trouble.

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Speaker 2: Right. Look at South.

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Speaker 5: Korea and Germany and France and Canada these days. I mean,

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Speaker 5: this is a this is a really interesting time to

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Speaker 5: be someone like Donald Trump coming into power and saying

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Speaker 5: I'm going to use that power, and I'm going to

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Speaker 5: use it in ways it's going to force you to acquiesce.

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Speaker 2: So ajzero world is a very volatile it's.

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Speaker 5: A very unstable world, and it's one that comes from

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Speaker 5: the Americans and some allies no longer willing to play

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Speaker 5: the role they had been.

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Speaker 2: Told to in the world over over decades.

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Speaker 5: It's come from Russia not being integrated with the West,

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Speaker 5: being angry at the US about that, and alliging with

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Speaker 5: chaos actors like North Korea. And it's come from China

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Speaker 5: that was integrated into the global economy, but on the

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Speaker 5: presumption that as that happened, they would become more westlike,

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Speaker 5: you know, more political, open reforms, rule of law, free market.

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Speaker 5: None of that happened, and now the US is angry

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Speaker 5: about it. So you put those things together and you

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Speaker 5: get this geopolitical disorder, which is pretty unique, and it's

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Speaker 5: pretty unique for a country that created a global order

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Speaker 5: to start taking its own order apart.

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Speaker 2: And that's what we're living through in twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 4: Nice job not cursing during that answer, by the way,

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Speaker 4: good self control. So even if Kamala Harris had won.

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Speaker 4: Even before we go into the future, where do you

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Speaker 4: rank the lack of world order compared to recent history.

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Speaker 4: I remember I heard hearing Henry Is Kissinger talk about

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Speaker 4: it back when he was alive. He thought we were

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Speaker 4: at a pretty bad point. We are slash were.

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Speaker 5: I think that again, bad point depends on whose perspective

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Speaker 5: you're taking the I think the United States is going

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Speaker 5: to get a lot of wins in this environment. We

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Speaker 5: say that this is the most dangerous period since the thirties,

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Speaker 5: but you know, there was a lot of appeasement going

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Speaker 5: on in the thirties. There's a lot of appeasement that's

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Speaker 5: going to happen in twenty twenty five. I mean, Mark

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Speaker 5: Zuckerberg looked like he was appeasing yesterday, right, And if

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Speaker 5: you think that he's in a weak position, you haven't

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Speaker 5: been talking to the Canadians or the Danes in the

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Speaker 5: last forty eight hours.

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Speaker 2: I think the United States is actually going to get

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Speaker 2: a lot of wins in the early days.

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Speaker 5: But it's going to be unnerving for people that feel

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Speaker 5: like they're being targeted. It's unnerving for countries that feel

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Speaker 5: like they're on the wrong side of this, and that's

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Speaker 5: going to lead to a lot of fragmentation and a

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Speaker 5: lot of hedging around the world. But the funny thing

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Speaker 5: is when we talked about this last year, you and I,

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Speaker 5: you know, we were were about these big wars that

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Speaker 5: were going on in the Middle East, in Ukraine, and

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Speaker 5: even the growing fighting happening inside the United States.

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Speaker 2: And the interesting thing about twenty twenty five is that

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Speaker 2: all of those wars are receding. Right.

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Speaker 5: It's a good chance that the Middle East wars are

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Speaker 5: going to be fought less strongly than they were, in

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Speaker 5: part because the Israelis don't have much more to hit

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Speaker 5: when it comes to Hamas. Secondly, in the Middle in Russia, Ukraine,

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Speaker 5: there's a good likelihood we're going to get a ceasefire

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Speaker 5: over the course of the year. And in the US,

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Speaker 5: despite all of the fighting over the elections, the fact

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Speaker 5: is that nobody thinks that Trump stole it.

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Speaker 2: It was free, it was fair, it wasn't rigged.

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Speaker 5: And whether you like Trump or not, you recognize, yeah,

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Speaker 5: he won the presidency, he's going to mandate. So those

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Speaker 5: things that were bothering us so much in twenty twenty

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Speaker 5: four and played out over twenty twenty four in ways

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Speaker 5: that we're very damaging for twenty twenty five have actually

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Speaker 5: started to started to hit the rear view mirror so well.

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Speaker 1: Not only am I one of the great prognosticators of

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Speaker 1: our time or any other ian, I'm also willing to

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Speaker 1: offer my services to go abroad and explain Trump's negotiating style,

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Speaker 1: because I see on your list of risks several of

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Speaker 1: them are related to Trump's governing style, whether the checks

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Speaker 1: and balances of the American system will hold, whether alliances

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Speaker 1: will hold. And you know, I look back to his

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Speaker 1: first term and he has said some outrageous things about

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Speaker 1: NATO that bothered me. I don't particularly appreciate his negotiating style,

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Speaker 1: but the threats to like disband NATO or let anybody

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Speaker 1: attack him or whatever, I found wildly inappropriate. But the

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Speaker 1: net result was a stronger, more responsible NATO in terms

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Speaker 1: of self funding.

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Speaker 5: Absolutely and when he said that Mexico was going to

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Speaker 5: build a wall and pay for it, they paid for

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Speaker 5: absolutely nothing on the border, but they did strengthen their

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Speaker 5: own border security in the South, which led to far

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Speaker 5: fewer illegal immigrants going through Mexico into the United States

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Speaker 5: under the Trump administration.

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Speaker 2: Couldn't agree with you more.

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Speaker 1: That is super interesting, And I would also cite China

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Speaker 1: where Trump was maybe you know, more blunt and hard

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Speaker 1: ass than he needed to be, but that relationship really

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Speaker 1: need to be turned around. How do you see that

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Speaker 1: progressing this year? The US China breakdown as you put it.

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Speaker 5: Let me say first broadly that Trump is because he's

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Speaker 5: in a much stronger position internationally because power is relational

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Speaker 5: this time around, and also because he's in a much

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Speaker 5: stronger position domestically. He's got the House, he's got the Senate,

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Speaker 5: but he also has the entire GOP that recognizes they

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Speaker 5: need him and all of his appointees a loyalist that

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Speaker 5: you don't see any Nicky Haley's or Mike Pompeo's or

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Speaker 5: mad Dog Matis's in this bunch. People are not going

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Speaker 5: to be able to get around him to try to

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Speaker 5: moderate his impulses.

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Speaker 2: So that's going to lead to Trump being able to

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Speaker 2: do more of what he wants to do.

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Speaker 5: And what he wants to do is not make Canada

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Speaker 5: the fifty first state, but he does want to change

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Speaker 5: the nature of US trade deficits with countries all over

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Speaker 5: the world. He wants to use tariffs to accomplish that.

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Speaker 5: He also wants to get rid of a lot of

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Speaker 5: illegal immigrants in the US deport them, and I think

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Speaker 5: he's going to do that too with China.

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Speaker 2: That means that in.

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Speaker 5: The early weeks of this relationship, we are going to

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Speaker 5: see more tariffs from the United States against China. We're

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Speaker 5: going to see more export controls on semiconductors. And if

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Speaker 5: you look at the people that Trump has appointed, like

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Speaker 5: Mike Waltz and Marco Arrubio, who I think are quite capable,

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Speaker 5: and I'm known for a while, they're very hawkish on China.

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Speaker 5: They are people that are not trusted by the Chinese

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Speaker 5: to engage the way that say Jake Sullivan and some

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Speaker 5: of his team have been. So I think that the

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Speaker 5: relationship between the US and China, which has been comparatively

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Speaker 5: well managed in the last year and and in a

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Speaker 5: way that did not give away the store to the Chinese. So,

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Speaker 5: I mean, Democrats and Republicans largely think that Biden's done

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Speaker 5: a pretty good job on China. It's one of the

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Speaker 5: few things they agree on when it comes to Biden's

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Speaker 5: foreign policy. I suspect that's not going to hold. It's

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Speaker 5: going to break down and so we will start slipping

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Speaker 5: into an active trade war between the US China, and

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Speaker 5: we'll see more of an act of decoupling between the

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Speaker 5: two economies than we've presently had.

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Speaker 3: Wow.

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Speaker 4: Do you think at some point like Apple can't make

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Speaker 4: phones there anymore and that sort of thing.

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Speaker 2: I think that's already happening.

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Speaker 5: We already see Apple putting a lot more money into

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Speaker 5: India and to Vietnam and to Indonesia.

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Speaker 2: Now some of that is not political.

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Speaker 5: Some of that is because the Chinese economy is really underperforming.

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Speaker 5: Hijinping has made it tougher for the private sector. He's

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Speaker 5: supported state owned enterprises, and consumer sentiment in China has

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Speaker 5: fallen off a cliff, so people aren't buying as much.

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Speaker 5: They're not they're they're keeping money in savings because they

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Speaker 5: don't really trust the Chinese government to be able to

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Speaker 5: perform the way they had. Some of that was the

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Speaker 5: pandemic in zero COVID too, which they handled.

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Speaker 2: Really badly in my view.

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Speaker 5: And so when you talk to Western multinationals about China,

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Speaker 5: they're saying, we're reducing our exposure, we're firing people, we're

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Speaker 5: ending strategic partnerships. Then you add on top of that,

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Speaker 5: Trump saying I'm going to come in and put a

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Speaker 5: sixty percent tariff across the board, and even if you

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Speaker 5: expect that is exaggerated, and I do, it is hitting

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Speaker 5: China at a time that frankly, no one's super excited

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Speaker 5: about spending more money there.

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Speaker 1: You know, anybody who predicts the imminent downfall of the

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Speaker 1: Chinese Communist Party as a fool. But they do have

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Speaker 1: unbelievable headwinds, including demographics. How bearish are you on China

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Speaker 1: and xesiin Ping in the medium to long term?

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Speaker 2: Well, I mean in a sense.

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Speaker 5: The fact that chijin Ping reached out to India, had

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Speaker 5: a two hour plus summit and and pulled back Chinese

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Speaker 5: troops from their contested border shows that China knows they've

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Speaker 5: got big headwinds and they don't want a big crisis

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Speaker 5: with India.

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Speaker 2: They reached out to Japan and asked for a summit.

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Speaker 5: Usually it's the other way around, and they offered to

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Speaker 5: start buying Japanese seafood, which just a few months ago

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Speaker 5: they said you can't sell here because it's all radioactive

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Speaker 5: because of Fukushima. I've seen them do a lot of

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Speaker 5: this around the world, Now, some of this is because

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Speaker 5: they're worried about Trump and the uncertainty coming from the

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Speaker 5: US that they don't think they can manage. But some

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Speaker 5: of it is a recognition that they're in a bad position,

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Speaker 5: and so frankly, it behooves them to stabilize these relations.

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Speaker 5: And that comes from a deep concern that you just

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Speaker 5: asked about.

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Speaker 2: Do I think they're about to fall? No, But I

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Speaker 2: mean they're demographics.

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Speaker 5: They're at what one point four billion people right now,

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Speaker 5: and expectations for twenty one hundred, when you know, you

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Speaker 5: and I are going to be pretty pretty geezerly is

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Speaker 5: that they're going to be down to five hundred million

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Speaker 5: to seven hundred and fifty million. So I mean a

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Speaker 5: significant I mean the biggest contraction of a population that

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Speaker 5: you would ever see in an economy outside of like.

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Speaker 2: War or famine.

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Speaker 5: It's peacetime in China, and they're just saying, we just

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Speaker 5: don't want to have any kids, and there's nothing the

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Speaker 5: Chinese government can do about it. This is not a

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Speaker 5: five year a ten year problem. Their retirement age for

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Speaker 5: men is fifty five. They can extend that for five

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Speaker 5: or ten years. They're not very urbanized. They can move

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Speaker 5: more people into cities. They can make agriculture more efficient,

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Speaker 5: they can lean into AI. There's a lot of things

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Speaker 5: they can do that can give them a ten year buffer,

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Speaker 5: But they don't have a generational solution here, so long term,

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Speaker 5: I think they're in very big trouble.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: I don't know if you read David Sanger's book New

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Speaker 4: Cold Wars, but he opened yeah, great book, but he

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Speaker 4: opened with the quote, which I think is underappreciated. When

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Speaker 4: it was hot on a hot mic or on purpose,

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Speaker 4: I don't know when she was talking to Putin before

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Speaker 4: he got in the car and said basically, you know,

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Speaker 4: we're gonna change the world order. We're gonna drive, and

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Speaker 4: we are going to drive these big changes. Do you

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Speaker 4: think he's still focused on that or are think he's

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Speaker 4: gotten so tough internally that he can't be focused on

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Speaker 4: that anymore.

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Speaker 5: I think that he at a very minimum recognizes that

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Speaker 5: the timing for such a statement, for such policies is inopportunite.

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Speaker 2: I mean, when I was last in China two.

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Speaker 5: Months ago, two and a half months ago, they were

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Speaker 5: telling me that they've pushed out their projections of when

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Speaker 5: China would become the largest economy overtaking the US by

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Speaker 5: five years, so they're not looking at being able to

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Speaker 5: take over Taiwan by twenty twenty nine the way that

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Speaker 5: many in the US included had expected was sort of coming.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 5: Does that mean that she Ping actually believes that he

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Speaker 5: no longer is going to have the ultimately the world's

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Speaker 5: leading economy, that his plans for global domination and artificial

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Speaker 5: intelligence are going away. I wouldn't go that far, but

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Speaker 5: I mean, he's not getting any younger. I mean, and

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Speaker 5: at some point kicking the can down the road does

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Speaker 5: become a strategic change of mind. I wouldn't dare to

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Speaker 5: say how far in his personal mental processes he's traveled

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Speaker 5: along that road, but I mean he certainly started the path.

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Speaker 1: He's no kid either, right, absolutely right. Risk number six

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Speaker 1: Iran on the ropes. They are a cornered beast. Are

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Speaker 1: they a dangerous cornered beast?

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Speaker 5: I think less so what we have seen over the

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Speaker 5: last years, they've been hit pretty hard, particularly by Israel,

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Speaker 5: and the response has been very little. You'll remember when

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Speaker 5: the head of Hamasa's political division, their leader, was assassinated

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Speaker 5: by Israel on the day of the Iranian president's inauguration,

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Speaker 5: in Tehran, and the Iranian response was essentially nothing.

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Speaker 2: They didn't blow up Israel on the back of it.

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Speaker 5: They didn't blow up Israel on the back of taking

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Speaker 5: out Hazbala, their most important proxy.

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Speaker 2: They didn't blow up.

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Speaker 5: Israel on the back of launching a series of missiles

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Speaker 5: against Iran. So I mean, I think the Iranians recognize

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Speaker 5: that they've lost their deterrent capability and they just don't

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Speaker 5: have an effective way to hit the United States or Israel,

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Speaker 5: which has made them very cautious and very risk averse. Now,

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Speaker 5: the one thing, of course, they could do, and President

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Speaker 5: Macron or France has been warning about this in the

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Speaker 5: past couple of days, is they could significantly ramp up

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Speaker 5: their dash to a nuclear bomb.

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Speaker 3: Okay, I was going to ask you about that. Is

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Speaker 3: Trump Israel?

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Speaker 4: From what I read the other day in some publication,

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Speaker 4: Israel can't do it on the realm, they'd need our help.

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Speaker 4: Is Trump willing to help Israel take out their nuclear

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Speaker 4: facilities their bomb making program?

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Speaker 3: Can we do it?

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Speaker 5: There are certainly people around Trump that are coming into

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Speaker 5: the administration that believe that is what the US should do,

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Speaker 5: that this is a historic opportunity to take out America

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Speaker 5: and Israel's top enemy in the Middle East.

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Speaker 2: Is Trump personally willing to do that.

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Speaker 5: I mean, he's very reluctant to use military force. He

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Speaker 5: doesn't want to get involved in new wars. He's proud

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Speaker 5: of ending wars, not starting new ones. And he also

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Speaker 5: knows that a war with Iran would lead to significantly

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Speaker 5: high oil prices, though they're low right now and there's

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Speaker 5: a lot of oil and reserve that's not being produced,

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Speaker 5: but it would certainly impact the stock market, all things

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Speaker 5: that he doesn't really like.

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Speaker 3: He took out Solem Mooney.

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Speaker 2: Look he did.

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Speaker 5: He did take out Solomoney, the head of the Iranian

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Speaker 5: defense for but he did it after months of Iranian

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Speaker 5: strikes against Saudi Arabia, including their largest refinery in the world,

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Speaker 5: including the UAE, and including even American bases in the region.

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Speaker 5: And then finally he hit Sulimani assassinated him.

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Speaker 2: So again, I think it is possible.

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Speaker 5: I think at a minimum, Trump is going to put

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Speaker 5: much more pressure against Iran, including shutting down a lot

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Speaker 5: of these illegal, non flaged tankers that are helping Iran

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Speaker 5: get oil out illegally, which the Chinese will not be happy.

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Speaker 2: With because they're the ones buying most of it.

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Speaker 5: I think he'll do that, so he's gonna put Iran

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Speaker 5: under a lot more economic pressure. Would he support nat

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Speaker 5: YAHOO directly in strikes against the nuclear facilities?

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Speaker 2: I think in the early days the answer is no, But.

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Speaker 5: I suspect if Iran started to go towards the bomb,

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Speaker 5: he probably would.

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Speaker 4: That's gonna be an interesting one to follow because I

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Speaker 4: don't know what it's going to happen there. I've listened

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Speaker 4: to a bunch of different policy podcasts where people talk

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Speaker 4: about it. A round's never going to be in a

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Speaker 4: weaker state than they are right now, if not now when, So.

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Speaker 2: That's right, that's a good one. Could happen, It could

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Speaker 2: easily happen.

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Speaker 5: I think at the very least, US pressure economically much

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Speaker 5: more meaningful. And the Israelis continuing to hit them with

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Speaker 5: cyber espionage.

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Speaker 2: Hit the critical infrastructure assassinations.

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Speaker 5: All of that is putting more pressure on the Iranian regime.

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Speaker 5: And they've lost their empire in the Middle East, they

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Speaker 5: lost the axis of resistance, and now there's growing insurgency

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Speaker 5: inside Iranian provinces too. So I mean, it's also plausible

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Speaker 5: that we would see internal regime change. I mean, you know,

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Speaker 5: these things happened.

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Speaker 2: Very slowly and then very quickly.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, no one expected Asad was going to suddenly fall

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Speaker 5: after fifty years of dictatorship. And yet two weeks after

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Speaker 5: the revolution started with some rebels, suddenly he was fleet

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Speaker 5: being the Moscow where he awaited getting poisoned.

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Speaker 4: Hey, it was it last year of the year before

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Speaker 4: you made some big AI predictions. Is AI further along

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Speaker 4: then you thought it would be, or did you think

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Speaker 4: it would be further along?

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Speaker 5: I think it's further along, And we've been pretty bullish

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Speaker 5: on AI, and yet we continue to be pretty as

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Speaker 5: staggered by just how many use cases there are for

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Speaker 5: industrial innovation in every sector, every company around the world.

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Speaker 5: We're pretty staggered by, you know, the fact that you know,

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Speaker 5: the touring test has basically been shattered, and that human

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Speaker 5: beings engaging with boughts can no longer tell if it's

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Speaker 5: a boud or human being. In fact, the only way

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Speaker 5: you can really tell is because they're faster and smarter

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Speaker 5: on a lot of on a lot of aspects.

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Speaker 4: Oh my god, Ian, I heard a story I was

403
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Speaker 4: talking to some of yesterday, was in a meeting with

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Speaker 4: a bunch of farmers who are single and they've gotten

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Speaker 4: into chat GPT girlfriends and they and I mean this

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Speaker 4: is like this is the last crowd in the world

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Speaker 4: you'd think would in brak this sort of thing, but

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Speaker 4: kind of like really like the companionship of So getting

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Speaker 4: to your whole turning test, can you tell if it's

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Speaker 4: a human being or not? I mean they are like

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Speaker 4: getting comfort from talking to some chick on whose AI.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, that's where we're headed.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean I do think I've never been a

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Speaker 5: big one for pronouns, but I'd go gender neutral when

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Speaker 5: it comes to AI.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Well, as the guy who predicted Biden dropping out, Ian,

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Speaker 1: AI will be the undoing of mankind. It is the

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Speaker 1: fruit of the true knowledge from the joke of Genesis.

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Speaker 1: Soon it will be our end. A bit of a

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Speaker 1: lightning round here. How screwed up and horrible is Africa.

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Speaker 5: They're they're slipping farther behind in terms of, you know,

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Speaker 5: the the how their economy is going.

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Speaker 2: I think the the upside.

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Speaker 5: Of AI is that you can actually get access to

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Speaker 5: world class knowledge, medicine, education, and the rest without having

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Speaker 5: to build a lot of expensive infrastructure, which will create

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Speaker 5: opportunities for Africans that they otherwise don't have. That's a

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Speaker 5: really good thing. But they're getting hit harder by climate

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Speaker 5: change than anybody else. That were hit just harder last

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Speaker 5: year by El Nino than anybody else. I mean, there

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Speaker 5: isn't the money to do a lot of the you know,

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Speaker 5: the big state building in nation building. Even China's Belton

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Speaker 5: Road is you know, a fraction of what it used

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Speaker 5: to be given China's economic challenges. So I'd like to

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Speaker 5: say that there are some silver linings here, but generally speaking,

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Speaker 5: Africa is not hitting where we want to go.

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Speaker 1: Horrifying, blood letting, violence, instability, starvation. There we know you're

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Speaker 1: up against time. You have to drop out. So another

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Speaker 1: very quick question, to what extent is this true? America's

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Speaker 1: neighbor to the south, Mexico, is a highly unstable narco state.

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00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:56,760
Speaker 2: False, It is not highly unstable.

443
00:22:57,400 --> 00:23:00,639
Speaker 5: In fact, it has one of the most popular governments

444
00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:02,959
Speaker 5: of any democracy in the world that won on the

445
00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:06,399
Speaker 5: back of the same a leader from the same party,

446
00:23:07,160 --> 00:23:12,879
Speaker 5: so easy transition, and they have a pretty capable cabinet.

447
00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:17,040
Speaker 5: They also are incredibly well integrated in terms of investment

448
00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:19,520
Speaker 5: in supply chain with the largest, most robust economy in

449
00:23:19,560 --> 00:23:21,159
Speaker 5: the world, which is a great place for them to be.

450
00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:24,080
Speaker 5: But they are going to have to step up their

451
00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:27,280
Speaker 5: game on fentanyl. They're going to have to step up

452
00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:30,680
Speaker 5: their game on border security, and they're going to step

453
00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:34,119
Speaker 5: up the game on allowing China to pass through a

454
00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:36,399
Speaker 5: whole bunch of goods from China through Mexico into the

455
00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:36,920
Speaker 5: United States.

456
00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:38,679
Speaker 2: And that's going to be very hard for them. So

457
00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:40,000
Speaker 2: this is going to be a tough year.

458
00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:42,600
Speaker 5: They'll get there, they'll get there with the Americans, they'll

459
00:23:42,600 --> 00:23:43,640
Speaker 5: stabilize the relationship.

460
00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:45,040
Speaker 2: They'll do what they need to do because they have

461
00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:47,000
Speaker 2: no choice. But I think this is going to be

462
00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:47,800
Speaker 2: tough year from Mexico.

463
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:50,399
Speaker 4: Bueno on that answer, Trump was going to send Persia

464
00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:52,720
Speaker 4: down to fight Pancho Villa and now he doesn't have to.

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00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:57,240
Speaker 1: Right that Excellent Ian Bremer of the Eurasia Group Global Risks.

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00:23:57,280 --> 00:23:59,560
Speaker 1: It's such a great read. We suggest you downloaded. Ian.

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00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:02,399
Speaker 1: It's all it's a pleasure. Thanks a million, gentlemen.

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00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:03,080
Speaker 2: Good to talk to you.

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00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:07,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, nice job of not cursing. Also great self control.

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00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:09,639
Speaker 5: I did if I You guys always were like the

471
00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:12,600
Speaker 5: biggest joke tellers when I was talking to you. You

472
00:24:12,640 --> 00:24:16,560
Speaker 5: are like just having a party, and so I ipself loose.

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00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:19,040
Speaker 4: You slipped into regular talk. But hey, thanks for the time.

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00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:19,760
Speaker 4: We appreciate it.

475
00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:21,479
Speaker 2: How long have I been How long have I been

476
00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:22,119
Speaker 2: suspended for?

477
00:24:22,720 --> 00:24:23,920
Speaker 3: Well, obviously you're back, so.

478
00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:28,520
Speaker 2: That's good. I love it. OK, good to talk to

479
00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:32,760
Speaker 2: you guys. All right extra large