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Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.

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Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,

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Speaker 2: and we are so excited about what that means for

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Speaker 2: the future of the show.

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Speaker 3: This is the only place where you can find honest

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Speaker 3: perspectives from the left and the right that simply does

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Speaker 3: not exist anywhere else.

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Speaker 2: So if that is something that's important to you, please

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Speaker 2: go to Breakingpoints dot com. Become a member today and

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Speaker 2: and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.

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Speaker 3: We need your help to build the future of independent

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Speaker 3: news media and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints

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Speaker 3: dot com.

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Speaker 1: Good morning, everybody, Happy Thursday. We have an amazing show,

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Speaker 1: so you can be to press show for everybody today.

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Speaker 4: What do we have, Crystal, Yes, the present show.

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Speaker 2: We've got all the details for you about quote unquote

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Speaker 2: Liberation Day, plus the early morning market reaction best we

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Speaker 2: can tell, plus the our own reactions of what this

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Speaker 2: is going to mean and what is going to mean

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Speaker 2: for you. None of it good and all of it

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Speaker 2: insane and all of the things. So get into all

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Speaker 2: of that and spend some significant time breaking it all

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Speaker 2: down for you as best we can, but there is

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Speaker 2: a lot of other news as well that we want

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Speaker 2: to get to. Trump is saying that Elon will be

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Speaker 2: out soon. He's saying that to his inner circle. Is

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Speaker 2: in our circle is then leaking it to the news media.

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Speaker 2: So that is pretty interesting. The wake of that big

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Speaker 2: Wisconsin defeat. We also have a new deadline for potential

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Speaker 2: TikTok deal or sale. We'll tell you who is lining

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Speaker 2: up to be part of that process. I'm taking a

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Speaker 2: look at massive cuts both to mind safety and also

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Speaker 2: to some of the programs to prevent, identify research and

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Speaker 2: treat black lung, real betrayal of a group of voters

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Speaker 2: who were quite key to Trump's victory, especially back in

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Speaker 2: twenty sixteens, and breaking all of that down for you.

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Speaker 2: Z is going to join us to take a look

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Speaker 2: at the extremist group that is claiming to be behind

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Speaker 2: the list of students who are being targeted right now

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Speaker 2: for removal by the Trump administration based on their pro

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Speaker 2: Palestine sentiment.

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Speaker 4: So a lot going on in the world right now.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right.

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Speaker 3: Let's just go ahead and start with the tariff's guies.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I stayed up well past my bedtime thinking

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Speaker 3: reading and doing as much as I possibly could here.

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Speaker 3: I'm going to save my gas reaction before we break

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Speaker 3: down all of the news, Let's just go ahead and

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Speaker 3: start with the announcement. I watched the entire thing, so

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Speaker 3: you don't have to.

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Speaker 1: Let's take a listen, big Price.

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Speaker 5: From seventeen eighty nine to nineteen thirteen, we were a

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Speaker 5: tariff back nation in the United States, was proportionately the

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Speaker 5: wealthiest it has ever been. So wealthy, in fact, that

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Speaker 5: in the eighteen eighties they established a commission to decide

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Speaker 5: what they were going to do with the vast sums

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Speaker 5: of money they were collecting. We were collecting so much

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Speaker 5: money so fast, we didn't know what to do with it.

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Speaker 1: Isn't that a nice problem to have?

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Speaker 5: What do you think, Marco? Good problem? Marco would love

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Speaker 5: that problem. But we don't have that problem anymore. But

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Speaker 5: we're not going to have it very much longer. I

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Speaker 5: will tell you. But they collected so much money they

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Speaker 5: actually formed a commission to determine what they were going

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Speaker 5: to do with the money, who they were going to

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Speaker 5: give it to, and how much. Then in nineteen thirteen,

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Speaker 5: for reasons unknown to mankind, they established the income tax,

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Speaker 5: so that citizens rather than foreign countries, would start paying

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Speaker 5: the money necessary to run our government. But likewise, an

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Speaker 5: old fashioned term that we use, groceries. I use it

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Speaker 5: in the campaign. It's such an old fashioned term, but

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Speaker 5: a beautiful term, groceries.

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Speaker 1: It says a.

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Speaker 5: Bag with different things that it groceries went through the roof,

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Speaker 5: and I campaigned on that. I talked about the word

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Speaker 5: groceries for a lot. And so we're going to be

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Speaker 5: charging a discounted reciprocal tariff of thirty four percent. I think,

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Speaker 5: in other words, they charge us, we charge them, we

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Speaker 5: charge them lest So how can anybody be upset? They

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Speaker 5: will be because we never charge anybody anything. But now

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Speaker 5: we're going to charge European Union. They're very tough, very

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Speaker 5: very tough traders. You know, you think of European Union

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Speaker 5: very friendly. They rip us off. It's so sad to see.

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Speaker 3: It was nearly an hour, Longe, and that chart, ladies

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Speaker 3: and gentlemen, is exactly how the entire world learned about

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Speaker 3: what the tariff right would be.

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Speaker 1: And I will tell you so. My wife is a

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Speaker 1: trade expert.

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Speaker 3: We were sitting on the count we're watching this together,

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Speaker 3: and we both audibly gasped whenever we saw what it

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Speaker 3: actually was. And let's go ahead and put this up

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Speaker 3: there on the screen. It is the craziest thing. Okay,

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Speaker 3: let me take the hyperbole out of it. This is

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Speaker 3: the most extraordinary tariff action in over a century, probably

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Speaker 3: the single most economically impactful action that a president of

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Speaker 3: the United States has ever made in terms of direct

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Speaker 3: intervention into the economy. So there you have these quote

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Speaker 3: US discounted reciprocal trade tariffs that are there on the right.

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Speaker 3: Thirty four percent for China, twenty percent on the European Union,

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Speaker 3: forty six percent for Vietnam, thirty two percent on Taiwan.

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Speaker 3: Just a side note, Taiwan is listed there as a country,

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Speaker 3: so that's interesting in.

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Speaker 1: And of itself.

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Speaker 3: Twenty four percent there for Japan, twenty six percent on India,

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Speaker 3: twenty five percent on South Korea, thirty six percent on Thailand,

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Speaker 3: thirty one percent Switzerland. A lot of this is listed

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Speaker 3: as either major US trading partners and or the amount

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Speaker 3: of bilateral trade that we do each year. Now, I

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Speaker 3: want everybody to pay attention to the way that the

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Speaker 3: column is designed. It says tariffs charged to the USA,

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Speaker 3: including currency manipulation and trade barriers, So there was immediate

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Speaker 3: discussion of how did they actually find this, How did

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Speaker 3: they come to this list not only of countries but

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Speaker 3: actually of the rate themselves. All indications right now is

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Speaker 3: that they literally used either chat GPT or some Wikipedia

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Speaker 3: form to find the number of countries in the world.

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Speaker 3: A perfect example, let's put this up there on the screen.

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Speaker 3: One of the islands that was listed is the Herd

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Speaker 3: in McDonald's Islands. It's inhabited only by penguins. Yes, it

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Speaker 3: is part of Australia, so they could have just said Ripping, Yes,

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Speaker 3: the small Bard, Small Bard, what is it? The most

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Speaker 3: the highest north like place that's populated by humans, I believe,

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Speaker 3: So that is included a Guinea Bissal. Now you'll notice

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Speaker 3: the overall regime basically works this way. The tariff is

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Speaker 3: calculated based upon some of this I'll call it extraordinary math.

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Speaker 3: For now, that extraordinary math comes to a figure which

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Speaker 3: they for example, like in the China case, where they

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Speaker 3: come up with this number of some sixty seven percent.

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Speaker 3: That number is then divided by two because Trump says

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Speaker 3: that we're going to be kind, and that is the

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Speaker 3: quote discounted reciprocal tariff that is being placed on these

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Speaker 3: other countries.

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Speaker 1: Now, in the.

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Speaker 3: Case where we do actually have a trade surplus, the

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Speaker 3: baseline assumption is that that trade surplus is still being

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Speaker 3: impacted by non trade barriers and or you know, things

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Speaker 3: like currency manipulations to a baseline of ten percent. Now,

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Speaker 3: the reasons and why that is so extraordinary is that,

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Speaker 3: if you'll remember, even during the campaign, Trump had discussed,

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Speaker 3: you know, a ten or a twenty percent tariff that

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Speaker 3: would be put into place that actually would have been

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Speaker 3: less than where we are right now. So let me

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Speaker 3: just go ahead and show you, guys, for example, what

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Speaker 3: the current actual tariff is overall. Let's go ahead and

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Speaker 3: put what is an A six please up on the screen.

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Speaker 3: A six can show you that the current tariff regime,

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Speaker 3: which previously was roughly around one point five percent, is

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Speaker 3: now quote off the scale of the graph that we

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Speaker 3: are even showing you now the way that they arrived

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Speaker 3: at this math. As I said, and you really need

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Speaker 3: to buckle in because this is kind of nerdy, but

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Speaker 3: let's go and put a seven please on the screen.

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Speaker 3: Immediately people were like, where the hell did this come from?

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Speaker 3: James Surguecki says, this quote just figured out where these

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Speaker 3: fake tarif rates come from. They didn't actually calculate tariff

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Speaker 3: rates plus non tariff barriers as they said they did. Instead,

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Speaker 3: for every country, they just took our trade deficit with

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Speaker 3: that country and divided it by the country's exports to

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Speaker 3: the United States. So, for example, we have a seventeen

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Speaker 3: point nine trade seventeen point nine billion trade deficit with Indonesia.

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Speaker 3: It's exports to US are twenty eight billion. Seventeen point

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Speaker 3: nine over twenty eight equals sixty four, which Trump claims

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Speaker 3: is the tariff rate Indonesia charges US. Now, let me

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Speaker 3: just briefly explain also why that doesn't make a hell

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Speaker 3: of a lot of sense.

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Speaker 1: The idea behind this is that the trade.

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Speaker 3: Deficit itself, divided by the number of goods is somehow

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Speaker 3: an approximation for what a reciprocal tariff is. That is

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Speaker 3: just simply not true. For example, the entire way that

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Speaker 3: this is being sold is and I wouldn't even blame

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Speaker 3: people if it says reciprocal tariff. For people to say,

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Speaker 3: for example, oh my god, Vietnam charges the United States

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Speaker 3: and ninety percent tariffs on goes.

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Speaker 1: That's completely not true.

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Speaker 3: Actually, Vietnam just yesterday said that they were going to

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Speaker 3: take all reciprocal tariffs away. This is a baseline assumption

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Speaker 3: that the mere existence of a trade deficit with any

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Speaker 3: country in the world, not just China, Japan, South Korea,

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Speaker 3: the manufacturing powerharp houses Mexico or Canada, which are exempt

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Speaker 3: from this, just by the way, those are currently still

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Speaker 3: under USMCA standards. That assumption there is that the trade deficit,

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Speaker 3: the mere existence, is one which is against the United

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Speaker 3: States and requires a corrective action known and being classified

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Speaker 3: as a reciprocal tariff. It is not a reciprocal tariff.

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Speaker 3: In fact, it does not even include currency manipulation. There

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Speaker 3: is a case to be made that it is the

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Speaker 3: way that you could roughly approximate it for China. Maybe

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Speaker 3: we can talk about that a little bit later, but

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Speaker 3: in the interim, what we can tell you is that

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Speaker 3: there is no way to describe this as like. Even

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Speaker 3: saying extraordinary is not capture it. We are talking about

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Speaker 3: a fifty four percent tariff on China. Because these tariffs

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Speaker 3: will stack on top of the three oh one tariffs

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Speaker 3: that have already been put in place. That's fifty four

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Speaker 3: percent on the one of the largest trading partners I

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Speaker 3: think number three for the entire United States of America,

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Speaker 3: not to mention consumer electronics, consumer goods, et cetera.

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Speaker 1: Vietnam is our numbers or eight trading partner.

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Speaker 3: The vast majority of retail goods in the textile industry

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Speaker 3: enter the.

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Speaker 1: United States from Vietnam.

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Speaker 3: The other issue that we really see here is that

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Speaker 3: none of this is paired with any tax credits and

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Speaker 3: or capital injection. The rough estimate off the top as

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Speaker 3: of this morning is that this will impact roughly four

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Speaker 3: hundred billion dollars worth of goods in the United States.

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Speaker 3: An additional four hundred billion that's what the overall revenue

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Speaker 3: that that would raise you would then have to see,

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Speaker 3: and a corrective action of roughly I mean, that's almost

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Speaker 3: what half of the original tart bill going back to

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Speaker 3: two thousand and eight two offset. Now, in the immediate term,

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Speaker 3: what's going to happen is that you are watching a

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Speaker 3: significant amount of these goods that are going to effectively

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Speaker 3: be tariffed at these crazy rates starting tomorrow and next week.

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Speaker 3: Tomorrow in next week is when all of this stuff

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Speaker 3: starts to go into place. As all of that goes

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Speaker 3: into place, the absolute massive shock to the supply chain

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Speaker 3: is going to be extraordinary. Now, the current market reaction, guys,

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Speaker 3: let's go ahead and put that up there. As you

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Speaker 3: guys can see, it's roughly around three point three percent

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Speaker 3: is the S and P five hundred right now? The

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Speaker 3: Nasdaq futures down by about three point eighty four percent,

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Speaker 3: et cetera. The Secretary of the Treasury was pressed immediately

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Speaker 3: after the press conference in the White House, being asked

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Speaker 3: what can other countries do? What exactly does this all mean.

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Speaker 3: Here's what he had to say, guys, Let's go ahead

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Speaker 3: and play a five.

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Speaker 1: It was a big day.

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Speaker 6: The President calls it liberation Day. You know, we showed

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Speaker 6: the markets before, but if you saw the post market reaction,

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Speaker 6: it was kind of down across the board. You know,

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Speaker 6: people are looking at their four oh one case and

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Speaker 6: they worry about it.

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Speaker 4: What do you say to.

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Speaker 7: Them today, Brett, I say that what we are doing

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Speaker 7: is we're setting the stage for long term economic growth.

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Speaker 7: That we were on our way to a financial crisis.

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Speaker 7: You know, I used to teach a history of financial

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Speaker 7: crisis and with a gigantic government spending, it was unsustain

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Speaker 7: You look back in nineteen ninety eight, you look back

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Speaker 7: in seven right before it looked great that everything collapsed.

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Speaker 6: China is at thirty four percent added to the twenty

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Speaker 6: percent already, so that's fifty four percent on Chinese goods.

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Speaker 3: Are they going to come back with something.

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Speaker 7: Big, Well, well, we'll see what they do. Is my

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Speaker 7: advice to every country right now is do not retaliate.

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Speaker 7: Sit back, take it in, Let's see how it goes,

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Speaker 7: because if you retaliate, there will be escalation if you

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Speaker 7: don't retaliate. This is the high water market, and I'm

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Speaker 7: trying to be Secretary of Treasury, not a market commentator.

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Speaker 7: What I would point out is that especially the nas

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Speaker 7: Nas deck peaked on Deep Seat Day. That so that's

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Speaker 7: a mag seven problem, not a MAGA problem. They don't

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Speaker 7: like terrorists, then why do they have them?

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Speaker 4: And should we view these as permanent?

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Speaker 7: That again, I think we're going to wait and see

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Speaker 7: how this.

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Speaker 3: Not inspiring at all? No clear instructions there for other countries.

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Speaker 3: And that is one actually where it makes the least

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Speaker 3: amount of sense, because you had two countries Vietnam and

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Speaker 3: Israel both before who were like, okay, no reciprocal tariff,

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Speaker 3: no worries, and then of course they still get hit

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Speaker 3: with the reciprocal immediately, and they were trying to figure out, like,

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Speaker 3: what are you talking about. You know, we just said

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Speaker 3: that we won't have reciprocal tariffs. This is one where

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Speaker 3: you basically are putting people in a situation where you

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Speaker 3: don't have any clear instructions for how other countries are

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Speaker 3: supposed to be able to respond. For example, I mean,

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Speaker 3: I'll be honest, this is the one that makes the

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Speaker 3: least amount of sense within all of this is the justification,

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Speaker 3: for example.

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Speaker 1: Of a VAT tax.

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Speaker 3: So as we'll recall, if you've ever been to Europe

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Speaker 3: or elsewhere, they use a value added tax kind of

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Speaker 3: like a sales tax, but it's applied across the board

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Speaker 3: to all goods that are sold in the country, and

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Speaker 3: so they're using the VAT as a justification for the

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Speaker 3: US goods are treated unfairly. It's like, well, not really,

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Speaker 3: because that would imply, for example, that we could negotiate

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Speaker 3: some scenario where let's say where you or I were

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Speaker 3: buying something made from China on Amazon.

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Speaker 1: I'm sure we've all done that at some point before.

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Speaker 3: But then the Chinese could negotiate with the United States,

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Speaker 3: and thus the state of Virginia where I live. Every

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Speaker 3: time I order something and then that would not be

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Speaker 3: subject to the Virginia sales tax. Right, It's like, no,

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Speaker 3: the sales tax is just applied to all of the

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Speaker 3: things that are sold in your state, and no offens or.

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Speaker 3: But so there's so much that is happening here right now.

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Speaker 3: I don't even really think that the market reaction fully

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Speaker 3: captures it.

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Speaker 4: If anythink Mark what happens when it opens.

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Speaker 3: What I think, crystal is that the market is so

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Speaker 3: a gas at this idea of where things are. Like

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Speaker 3: nobody in their wildest dreams actually could have come up

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Speaker 3: with a fifty four percent tariff on China or forty

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Speaker 3: six percent tariff on Vietnam. Yeh, Look, there are some exclusions,

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Speaker 3: for example, on Taiwan, like on semiconductors, the auto teriff

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Speaker 3: rate is actually excluded. It's still just twenty five percent,

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Speaker 3: which is still crazy, still a lot. And the what

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Speaker 3: I just come back to is not only are you

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Speaker 3: literally seeing the most extraordinary again, even extraordia does not

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Speaker 3: capture it massive tariff that is put into place on goods,

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Speaker 3: but the lack of commensurate action on the other side,

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Speaker 3: there is no even acknowledgment of the immediate pain that

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Speaker 3: many of these businesses will begin to feel tomorrow and

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Speaker 3: within the next week, and then the follow on effects

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Speaker 3: of that. So politically it's crazy, but beyond you know

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Speaker 3: what this all could mean. The only bull case and

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Speaker 3: this is why I think maybe even the market is

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Speaker 3: where it is is they're like, this is just so insane.

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Speaker 3: It's obviously a negotiating tactic kind of in the way

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Speaker 3: that Canada and Mexico are. But here's even if that

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Speaker 3: is to be true. Even if that is to be

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Speaker 3: true in one month from now, we'll have a grand

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Speaker 3: deal with China or something. In that interim one that's

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Speaker 3: one month of economic activity where you had a fifty

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Speaker 3: four percent tariff on the vast majority of consumer goods

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Speaker 3: that are entering the United States of America. One month

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Speaker 3: of a bad down month. Many of these companies operate

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Speaker 3: on what a four or five percent margin? Just think

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Speaker 3: about that. What do you think that the what is

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Speaker 3: the other forty some percent is going to go? The

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Speaker 3: forty seven percent, Well, they're going to cut jobs.

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Speaker 1: They're good, you know.

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Speaker 3: That's that's the issue is that unless you literally are

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Speaker 3: just pumping money into the economy in the way that

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Speaker 3: they did, let's say with the agricultural tariffs, and they

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Speaker 3: offset that immediately. There's no plan here, There's not even that.

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Speaker 3: Last I checked, the White House is active. The GOP Congress,

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Speaker 3: I mean, is actually trying to take away the tax credits.

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Speaker 3: The manufacturing asker is cut forty five x. That's right

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Speaker 3: in the US tax code.

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Speaker 4: So you are and and undoing the chips.

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Speaker 1: I was going to say, at even put the chips outside.

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Speaker 3: So even with that capital injection would require what it

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Speaker 3: would require a New Deal style program of thousands of

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Speaker 3: bureaucrats to actually have to sit there and to dole

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Speaker 3: this money out and to make sure that it's not

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Speaker 3: in front. Well, what are we also doing doge at

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Speaker 3: the same time. So we genuinely would have been better

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Speaker 3: off with a ten percent tariff, Like I'm not kidding

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Speaker 3: because right now ten percent right now now, the approximate

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Speaker 3: terror rate is now some thirty two percent. If you

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Speaker 3: average everything out, we would have been ten times better

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Speaker 3: off with a ten percent tariff. Here's the other thing too.

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Speaker 3: Let's say if these stay and you are a company,

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Speaker 3: what are you going to do? You're looking at these

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Speaker 3: reciprocal teriff regimes or whatever. Already much of the trade

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Speaker 3: out of Vietnam is because of the original China teriffs.

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Speaker 3: That was actually a good idea, right, because Vietnam is

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Speaker 3: much more a US ally, he get it out of China,

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Speaker 3: great win win for everybody. It's one of those where look,

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Speaker 3: if we even want to presume let's say, manufacturing jobs

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Speaker 3: coming back here as well to America. Really, what this

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Speaker 3: encourages is actually a gaming of the tariff market. And

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Speaker 3: even my friend Orrin cast who is generally i would say,

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Speaker 3: supportive of this overall thing. He even wrote previously in

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Speaker 3: his report that selective tariff application across the board like

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Speaker 3: this will cause one of the most corrupt lobbying campaigns

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Speaker 3: in the history of mankind. You know, to have each

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Speaker 3: one of these individual countries, they can game things with

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Speaker 3: each other. We've lived in the era of transshipping, etc.

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Speaker 3: But even worse is that now it all just comes

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Speaker 3: down to, likeas Donald J. Trump and the people around

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Speaker 3: him to potentially get offset or not. And there are

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Speaker 3: trillions of dollars on the line right.

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Speaker 2: Now, and Sager looking at this, that thing, you just

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Speaker 2: lay it out. That's the point, Like there is no one,

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Speaker 2: honest who can make a legitimate economic case for this.

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Speaker 4: One does not exist. I mean, it's a good thing.

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Speaker 2: We can all say retarded again, because there's no other

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Speaker 2: way to classify what has been done here. If you're

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Speaker 2: considering it on the merits of an economic plan. The

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Speaker 2: TLDR is, that's not.

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Speaker 4: Really what this is about.

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Speaker 2: This is the same effort to consolidate power that has

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Speaker 2: been a consistent theme of Trump two point zero. Whether

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Speaker 2: it's the university crackdown, whether it's the media crackdown, whether

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Speaker 2: it's the judicial attacks. All of this has to do

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Speaker 2: with giving Donald Trump more power. So it's not just

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Speaker 2: countries that will come hat in hand begging for this

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Speaker 2: or that exemption.

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Speaker 4: It's not to the lobbyist.

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Speaker 2: You're right, they got to be the happiest people on

388
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Speaker 2: the planets right now because anyone who has an in

389
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Speaker 2: is suddenly going to be astronomically valuable. But every single

390
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Speaker 2: company is going to be coming to Donald Trump pat

391
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Speaker 2: in hand, you know, like all the oligarchs lined up

392
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Speaker 2: behind him at the inauguration begging for their carve ount

393
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Speaker 2: and exemption. This is an incredible tool of power for

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Speaker 2: him because not only does he get to reward those

395
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Speaker 2: who are appropriate least either sycophantic or you know, cut

396
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Speaker 2: him in on whatever deal it is that he wants

397
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Speaker 2: or you know, buy enough of his crypto shit coin

398
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Speaker 2: or whatever it is. Not only does he have the

399
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Speaker 2: power now to reward those sycophantic allies, but he also

400
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Speaker 2: has the power to punish those who would dare dissent.

401
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Speaker 2: So top line, I think that's the best way to

402
00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:55,960
Speaker 2: think about what's going on here, because you're right, when

403
00:19:55,960 --> 00:19:59,720
Speaker 2: they release this chart, everyone's going through this list of

404
00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:02,840
Speaker 2: parted like what these countries supposedly the teriffs they have

405
00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:06,120
Speaker 2: on us, and everyone's going this is just made up?

406
00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:08,119
Speaker 2: Like that was the initial instinct, is that they just

407
00:20:08,280 --> 00:20:10,960
Speaker 2: literally made stuff up, and then a couple of people

408
00:20:11,000 --> 00:20:13,760
Speaker 2: online were able to crack this ridiculous code and the

409
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Speaker 2: you know, insane, insane calculation that they did.

410
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Speaker 4: I think it is all but confirmed that they just typed.

411
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Speaker 2: Something into chat GPT to get this, not only because

412
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Speaker 2: of the you know, places that are not even populated

413
00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:27,720
Speaker 2: that are on this list, but also because if you

414
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Speaker 2: ask chat gpt like, give me a really basic way

415
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Speaker 2: to calculate tariffs.

416
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Speaker 3: That's my only injection is that I actually use chat

417
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Speaker 3: EPT to come up with the formula.

418
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Speaker 1: Yeah, they said, and it's actually not that hard.

419
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Speaker 3: What they did is they typed in what is the

420
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Speaker 3: easiest way exactly because they.

421
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Speaker 2: Has the capability to do something that's actually more complex

422
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Speaker 2: than this. And if you say you have to say,

423
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Speaker 2: like give me the most basic, like basically the dumbest

424
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Speaker 2: way to do this, and this is the answer chat

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Speaker 2: GPT we'll give you. Just to drill down on because

426
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Speaker 2: I know there's a lot to process here, Just to

427
00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:10,679
Speaker 2: drill down on your point about why that calculation of

428
00:21:10,800 --> 00:21:13,399
Speaker 2: just assuming that if we have a trade deficit with

429
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Speaker 2: a country that they're quote unquote ripping us off. Arnau

430
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Speaker 2: Bertrand gave a great example on Twitter. He's like, think

431
00:21:19,600 --> 00:21:22,159
Speaker 2: about the country of Lesotha. This is one of the

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Speaker 2: poorest countries in Africa. They are also part of a

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Speaker 2: trading block including South Africa and other African nations, like

434
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Speaker 2: a regional trading block that has a consistent uniform tariff policy.

435
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Speaker 2: So you would think then that Lesotho and South Africa, okay,

436
00:21:37,160 --> 00:21:40,240
Speaker 2: if they have a uniform tariff policy, that they would

437
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Speaker 2: then be hit with the same level of reciprocal tariffs

438
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Speaker 2: not true, because we have a large trading deficit with Lesotho.

439
00:21:48,800 --> 00:21:52,760
Speaker 2: Why because they put they're a very poor country. We

440
00:21:52,840 --> 00:21:56,240
Speaker 2: import things like diamonds and other minerals from the country,

441
00:21:56,280 --> 00:21:58,240
Speaker 2: things that you know, by the way, we don't. There's

442
00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:01,680
Speaker 2: no way for us to jut up some domestic diamond

443
00:22:02,320 --> 00:22:03,200
Speaker 2: industry here.

444
00:22:03,240 --> 00:22:05,240
Speaker 4: So what are we doing to start with?

445
00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:07,440
Speaker 2: But the reason they don't buy a lot of things

446
00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:10,080
Speaker 2: for us is because they're really poor and they can't

447
00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:13,840
Speaker 2: afford iPhones and Tesla's or anything else. And yet they're

448
00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:16,320
Speaker 2: going to be hit with this massive tariff now, which

449
00:22:16,359 --> 00:22:20,960
Speaker 2: is going to be incredibly destructive to them because of

450
00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:24,919
Speaker 2: that what they consider to be Trump considers, based on

451
00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:27,199
Speaker 2: this chart, to be them ripping us off in this

452
00:22:27,240 --> 00:22:33,680
Speaker 2: trade and balance. That's how insane this whole thing is. Okay,

453
00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:38,040
Speaker 2: if you wanted to truly bring manufacturing back in certain

454
00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:41,440
Speaker 2: key industries, which I think makes sense, you think makes absolutely,

455
00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:47,919
Speaker 2: you would want extremely intelligent people with an extremely concerted,

456
00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:51,719
Speaker 2: specific plan of how you're going to do this and

457
00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:55,160
Speaker 2: what is the commensurate industrial policy you're going to use

458
00:22:55,480 --> 00:22:57,880
Speaker 2: to make sure that you're not only imposing the tariffs

459
00:22:57,880 --> 00:22:59,760
Speaker 2: and you know, putting this, you know, ring around that

460
00:22:59,800 --> 00:23:03,800
Speaker 2: in but they're also providing the government support, whether it's

461
00:23:03,800 --> 00:23:07,200
Speaker 2: tax credits or subsidies or whatever it is, to actually

462
00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:11,760
Speaker 2: induce industry to invest here. That is not what's going on.

463
00:23:11,840 --> 00:23:15,320
Speaker 2: In fact, we're going in the total opposite direction of

464
00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:18,119
Speaker 2: that with Doge and the austerity push that we see

465
00:23:18,320 --> 00:23:22,920
Speaker 2: right now. So this is going to cause massive pain.

466
00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:26,080
Speaker 2: I mean not just you know, stock market is going

467
00:23:26,119 --> 00:23:28,880
Speaker 2: to be a mess. Obviously people's four oh one k's

468
00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:32,199
Speaker 2: are going to be a disaster. But this level of tariff,

469
00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:34,600
Speaker 2: which you're right is somewhere if you average it all together,

470
00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:38,080
Speaker 2: we're talking about something around a thirty percent tariff. This

471
00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:41,960
Speaker 2: is a massive regressive tax that is going to hit

472
00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:46,200
Speaker 2: the working class and the poor the hardest thousands of dollars.

473
00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:50,159
Speaker 2: Additional that, working class people will have to pay to

474
00:23:51,160 --> 00:23:57,159
Speaker 2: buy food, clothing, medicine, nearly everything that Americans consume across

475
00:23:57,280 --> 00:24:01,600
Speaker 2: the board. The economic fallout here is impossible to wrap

476
00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:03,960
Speaker 2: your head around and the pain that it will cause

477
00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:08,880
Speaker 2: ordinary people. So I mean, that's that's where we are.

478
00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:11,399
Speaker 2: And just to give one more example, like I mentioned,

479
00:24:11,400 --> 00:24:13,640
Speaker 2: you know, we can't get up a domestic mining industry,

480
00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:16,000
Speaker 2: like this is why it's always I've always opposed this

481
00:24:16,080 --> 00:24:18,359
Speaker 2: idea that he pushed relentlessly on the campaign trail of

482
00:24:18,359 --> 00:24:20,720
Speaker 2: We're just going to do a flat tariff across the board,

483
00:24:20,720 --> 00:24:23,320
Speaker 2: and you're right, it would be superior to what we

484
00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:26,159
Speaker 2: to what he actually ended up with, which is in

485
00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:31,040
Speaker 2: complete insanity. But that never made sense because there are

486
00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:33,560
Speaker 2: certain things like Jeff time I was talking about Chilean

487
00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:36,680
Speaker 2: sea bass, like you literally cannot produce Chilean.

488
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:37,120
Speaker 4: Sea bass here.

489
00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:42,520
Speaker 2: We don't want to increase certain industries, either because it's

490
00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:45,600
Speaker 2: impossible or because it's like a low end industry that

491
00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:48,200
Speaker 2: it's not even beneficial for us to have in our country.

492
00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:54,119
Speaker 2: So he wants to make this comparison to the early

493
00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:58,719
Speaker 2: nineteen hundreds and William McKinley, you know his economic history.

494
00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:01,160
Speaker 2: That could be a whole other segment in and of itself.

495
00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:03,760
Speaker 2: The insanity of that. But if we can put up

496
00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:07,040
Speaker 2: put up the last element here, guys A eight, the

497
00:25:07,080 --> 00:25:12,880
Speaker 2: Smooth Holly tariffs. So last time we had anything approaching

498
00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:15,160
Speaker 2: this was the Smooth Holly Act in nineteen thirty, which

499
00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:20,479
Speaker 2: is widely seen as gravely exacerbating the Great depression. What

500
00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:25,880
Speaker 2: he just announced yesterday would go far beyond even where

501
00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:29,280
Speaker 2: tariffs were under the Smooth Holly Act. Smoot Holly Act,

502
00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:31,200
Speaker 2: when you average everything out, it is about twenty percent.

503
00:25:31,560 --> 00:25:36,640
Speaker 2: This is roughly thirty percent that we're talking about, wildly

504
00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:39,919
Speaker 2: out of line with any other developed nation around the globe.

505
00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:44,480
Speaker 2: And again, I think it is difficult to imagine how

506
00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:47,840
Speaker 2: severe the economic fallout is going to be from this

507
00:25:48,040 --> 00:25:54,560
Speaker 2: and the complete insanity entailed in developing and announcing this policy.

508
00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:56,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, and this is actually I hate doing this because

509
00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:59,920
Speaker 3: I feel like I have to start parrotying like Milton Friedman.

510
00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:02,679
Speaker 1: Or like all these people actually totally disagree with even this.

511
00:26:02,760 --> 00:26:04,840
Speaker 3: You know, people as you and I know, there are

512
00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:08,399
Speaker 3: certain neoliberals who would cry Smooth Holly anytime that you

513
00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:09,320
Speaker 3: would have even.

514
00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:10,400
Speaker 1: Let's say a five or ten percent.

515
00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:12,919
Speaker 3: Sure, there are certain people out there who would make

516
00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:16,920
Speaker 3: the case for TPP for any of these other trade partnerships,

517
00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:21,119
Speaker 3: et cetera, purely based on GDP numbers, And I don't believe.

518
00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:22,040
Speaker 1: That at all.

519
00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:25,920
Speaker 3: I am one hundred percent pro tariff, even on China,

520
00:26:25,960 --> 00:26:27,680
Speaker 3: it would make sense maybe I have a twenty five

521
00:26:27,720 --> 00:26:30,119
Speaker 3: percent across the board tariff. In fact, the formula. I

522
00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:32,800
Speaker 3: think the formula actually only makes sense whenever it's applied

523
00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:37,000
Speaker 3: to China. But fifty four percent overnight with no planning

524
00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:40,199
Speaker 3: and no tax relief and no monetary relief for the

525
00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:43,320
Speaker 3: said consumer, absolutely not. I'm telling you this as a

526
00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:45,960
Speaker 3: person who is an autarchist and a marcantilist in his heart.

527
00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:47,800
Speaker 3: I do not want to rely on the rest of

528
00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:49,720
Speaker 3: the world for all of these things. I want to

529
00:26:49,720 --> 00:26:53,840
Speaker 3: see booming manufacturing and a complete inversion of the American

530
00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:57,480
Speaker 3: social contract where everything is decentralized and we have no

531
00:26:57,560 --> 00:27:00,000
Speaker 3: retirement except for betting on the stock market. But that's

532
00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:01,760
Speaker 3: that's not what this is, right Like, this is basically

533
00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:04,760
Speaker 3: trying to reform the whole system with the bluntest possible

534
00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:07,520
Speaker 3: It's like the Federal Reserve. Actually when we think about inflation.

535
00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:12,240
Speaker 3: This is basically using this extraordinary teriff rate as a

536
00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:16,960
Speaker 3: corrective for so many different parts, interlocking parts of American society,

537
00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:19,640
Speaker 3: of the way that American business works. As in, if

538
00:27:19,640 --> 00:27:22,000
Speaker 3: you're going to do this, you're actually not only hurting

539
00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:25,399
Speaker 3: people's pocketbooks, they're four to oh one k's. But and

540
00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:27,520
Speaker 3: let's even move past that, because what sixty percent of

541
00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:30,359
Speaker 3: the country doesn't have retirement. The reason why it's not

542
00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:33,720
Speaker 3: about the stock market. It's about liquidity. It's about the

543
00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:36,399
Speaker 3: fact that a business is about to take some extraordinary

544
00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:38,639
Speaker 3: amount of hit on its bottom line just to remain

545
00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:41,800
Speaker 3: basically profitable, or even to maintain a semblance of margin,

546
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:43,920
Speaker 3: they have to have layoffs. There's just no other way

547
00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:46,080
Speaker 3: to get around it. Now, what did we do during

548
00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:50,440
Speaker 3: COVID Whenever we had a policy where we acknowledge let's say, lockdowns,

549
00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:51,760
Speaker 3: We're like, okay, we're gonna have lockdowns.

550
00:27:51,800 --> 00:27:52,360
Speaker 1: What did we do?

551
00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:54,879
Speaker 3: We had PPP loans and others that went out the

552
00:27:54,880 --> 00:27:58,520
Speaker 3: door build hundreds of billions, if not trillions of dollars.

553
00:27:58,560 --> 00:27:59,920
Speaker 1: Yea designed to offset that.

554
00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:02,520
Speaker 3: Now, you can argue against that in the first place,

555
00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:04,399
Speaker 3: your argument would be we never should have done the

556
00:28:04,400 --> 00:28:06,880
Speaker 3: lockdown in the first place. Okay, But I would say,

557
00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:08,879
Speaker 3: if you're gonna do it, then you absolutely should have

558
00:28:09,080 --> 00:28:12,480
Speaker 3: unemployment relief right and all that. But there's no acknowledgment

559
00:28:12,560 --> 00:28:15,240
Speaker 3: right now of any of that. That's my This is

560
00:28:15,280 --> 00:28:19,320
Speaker 3: effectively like the same as lockdown without any of the

561
00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:22,640
Speaker 3: unemployment insurance that CARES act or a way to think

562
00:28:22,680 --> 00:28:24,560
Speaker 3: so you have to think about the sledgehand. And this

563
00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:26,439
Speaker 3: is where people like me, I think, actually have the

564
00:28:26,440 --> 00:28:31,200
Speaker 3: more responsibility because I want to defend American manufacturing tariffs.

565
00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:34,399
Speaker 3: I want America's working class at better wages to be

566
00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:37,320
Speaker 3: I want to solve that but much better social contract

567
00:28:37,320 --> 00:28:40,760
Speaker 3: where yes, these chip cheap stuff from China, t MoU

568
00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:43,440
Speaker 3: Shean and all of that, it's a disaster. It's making

569
00:28:43,560 --> 00:28:46,520
Speaker 3: all of us actually materially worse off in the long run,

570
00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:48,920
Speaker 3: even though we may have more abundance of stuff.

571
00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:51,080
Speaker 1: That's actually that's a good critique of abundance, right.

572
00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:55,320
Speaker 3: But just bringing it full circle, this calculation of itself

573
00:28:55,600 --> 00:28:57,720
Speaker 3: is a lot like many of the other aspects of

574
00:28:57,760 --> 00:29:00,520
Speaker 3: this White House, where it's just sheer stupidity. That is

575
00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:05,360
Speaker 3: where I cannot just sit here and absorb it, because

576
00:29:06,120 --> 00:29:10,720
Speaker 3: in this one, these are people's lives, These are people's retirement.

577
00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:15,320
Speaker 3: People kill themselves during recessions. Go and I've talked about this.

578
00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:17,840
Speaker 3: Go look at the suicide rate from the grade. It

579
00:29:17,880 --> 00:29:20,120
Speaker 3: is the highest that we have ever seen. Go and

580
00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:24,560
Speaker 3: look the divorce rate and the social impact of what

581
00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:29,560
Speaker 3: massed economic pain does to the American soul. And also

582
00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:32,840
Speaker 3: let's think about what has happened every single time since

583
00:29:33,320 --> 00:29:34,680
Speaker 3: after two thousand and nine.

584
00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:36,080
Speaker 1: We had a choice.

585
00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:40,280
Speaker 3: We could bail out the banks and we could just

586
00:29:40,480 --> 00:29:44,040
Speaker 3: continue our financialized economy, or you know, we could have

587
00:29:44,040 --> 00:29:47,440
Speaker 3: done something different homeowners. We could have changed in the

588
00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:49,280
Speaker 3: way that our financial system works.

589
00:29:49,280 --> 00:29:51,520
Speaker 1: And that was a chance to actually readrite it. But well,

590
00:29:51,520 --> 00:29:52,120
Speaker 1: we didn't do that.

591
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:55,280
Speaker 3: So all of our recent economic history tells us that

592
00:29:55,680 --> 00:29:58,560
Speaker 3: in this interim amount of pain, the American consumer and

593
00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:01,720
Speaker 3: specifically the people who are poor and the bottom fiftieth

594
00:30:01,720 --> 00:30:06,120
Speaker 3: percentile of overall income household are going to only increase

595
00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:09,080
Speaker 3: their amount of precarity. We have a housing crisis. We're

596
00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:12,880
Speaker 3: putting huge amount of tariffs on things that go into housing. Now, okay,

597
00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:15,200
Speaker 3: you can do that, you really can, and you can

598
00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:17,160
Speaker 3: encourage lumber, et cetera. But what do you need to

599
00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:20,040
Speaker 3: see on the other side of that huge policy to

600
00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:23,200
Speaker 3: make sure that that is that is offset. And so

601
00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:25,760
Speaker 3: I think even when you look at Trump voters or

602
00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:28,200
Speaker 3: many other people people like me who are supportive of

603
00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:32,040
Speaker 3: big even big tariffs, so targeted tariffs, things that make sense,

604
00:30:32,560 --> 00:30:36,400
Speaker 3: things that are actually designed. You know, if you look

605
00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:38,959
Speaker 3: currently like I said, the Vietnam one. That's one that

606
00:30:39,280 --> 00:30:42,320
Speaker 3: makes absolutely no sense. We encourage these companies to move

607
00:30:42,400 --> 00:30:45,239
Speaker 3: to Vietnam specifically because to get out of China. Now,

608
00:30:45,240 --> 00:30:47,440
Speaker 3: it's not a perfect solution. I'd rather be here, but

609
00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:50,120
Speaker 3: it's probably better in the interim. Now, let's say you

610
00:30:50,160 --> 00:30:52,480
Speaker 3: phase in a five year overall plan. It's going to

611
00:30:52,480 --> 00:30:54,160
Speaker 3: phase up to that, and in the interim, we're going

612
00:30:54,200 --> 00:30:56,000
Speaker 3: to give you a tax credit to offset the cost

613
00:30:56,040 --> 00:30:58,240
Speaker 3: of moving that here. Okay, I think you know people

614
00:30:58,240 --> 00:31:00,880
Speaker 3: will say fine, yeah, and even the market reaction all

615
00:31:00,880 --> 00:31:02,520
Speaker 3: of that, this is not this is not even the

616
00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:04,440
Speaker 3: same universe like what we're seeing.

617
00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:05,760
Speaker 4: No, not at all, not at all.

618
00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:07,280
Speaker 2: And the other thing, to go back to your point

619
00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:10,160
Speaker 2: about okay, let's say let's say that he a month

620
00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:13,240
Speaker 2: from now is like, JK, we're going rolling these back.

621
00:31:13,360 --> 00:31:17,240
Speaker 2: We made a great deal, blah blah blah. At the end,

622
00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:21,080
Speaker 2: after that, you still have an absolute mad man, economic

623
00:31:21,160 --> 00:31:23,320
Speaker 2: terrorist who is the president of the United States. So

624
00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:27,000
Speaker 2: how much confidence do you think any business is going

625
00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:30,400
Speaker 2: to have in their investment decisions, in their you know,

626
00:31:30,480 --> 00:31:34,320
Speaker 2: desire to hire and expand, like no, because at any

627
00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:37,520
Speaker 2: time he could walk back out with another chart and

628
00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:40,760
Speaker 2: blow the whole world up. That's that's what we're talking

629
00:31:40,760 --> 00:31:43,680
Speaker 2: about here. So you know, of course I'm not going

630
00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:46,040
Speaker 2: to say it wouldn't matter at all if he rolls

631
00:31:46,080 --> 00:31:49,040
Speaker 2: back these tariffs, But in a lot of ways, this

632
00:31:49,120 --> 00:31:53,280
Speaker 2: is like the damage is done, and I truly believe

633
00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:57,520
Speaker 2: that there is not a single honest way to defend

634
00:31:57,520 --> 00:32:00,760
Speaker 2: the economic impact of these They will make think all

635
00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:01,480
Speaker 2: of us poor.

636
00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:03,640
Speaker 4: They will not have any.

637
00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:07,800
Speaker 2: Intended, you know, effect of bringing back manufacturing, raising wages,

638
00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:12,680
Speaker 2: et cetera. It simply is an effort for Trump to

639
00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:16,440
Speaker 2: have more power and consolidate more authority.

640
00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:19,680
Speaker 4: And that also brings me to I mean, I don't know.

641
00:32:19,600 --> 00:32:22,680
Speaker 2: What the courts will say, but I think that this

642
00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:27,959
Speaker 2: is also wildly illegal because the power of the purse

643
00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:32,080
Speaker 2: and the power to tax and raise revenue is supposed

644
00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:36,240
Speaker 2: to lie with Congress. And so now if the courts

645
00:32:36,280 --> 00:32:38,280
Speaker 2: and there will be challenges, and I know there's already

646
00:32:38,720 --> 00:32:42,240
Speaker 2: groups that are alreaty, groups that have filed and are

647
00:32:42,240 --> 00:32:43,640
Speaker 2: looking at filing, et cetera.

648
00:32:43,720 --> 00:32:45,080
Speaker 4: And really almost anyone.

649
00:32:44,760 --> 00:32:46,600
Speaker 2: In the country would have standings to see I think,

650
00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:49,480
Speaker 2: because everyone is so impacted by this. But you know,

651
00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:51,760
Speaker 2: like I said, I don't know what the courts will say,

652
00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:56,720
Speaker 2: but if you think about it philosophically, he is completely

653
00:32:57,200 --> 00:33:01,720
Speaker 2: overturning our entire economic model, and he's claiming the power

654
00:33:01,760 --> 00:33:05,320
Speaker 2: to do it unilaterally. That is the power of a king,

655
00:33:05,760 --> 00:33:07,600
Speaker 2: that is the power of a monarch, that is the

656
00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:11,880
Speaker 2: power of a dictator. And so it's he's using the

657
00:33:11,920 --> 00:33:16,800
Speaker 2: same tactical approach that he has with many other efforts

658
00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:19,640
Speaker 2: in his presidency, including his you know, the Alien Enemies

659
00:33:19,680 --> 00:33:23,320
Speaker 2: Act and other ways that he has tried to grab

660
00:33:23,360 --> 00:33:27,080
Speaker 2: and consolidate power. Is basically he claims that we are

661
00:33:27,240 --> 00:33:30,320
Speaker 2: at war or we're facing this grand crisis, and that

662
00:33:30,320 --> 00:33:37,240
Speaker 2: that justifies effectively, you know, wartime power consolidation, and you know,

663
00:33:37,240 --> 00:33:39,600
Speaker 2: we're not quite a martial law, but that's the sort

664
00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:41,840
Speaker 2: of that's the direction, that's the cheat code that he

665
00:33:41,880 --> 00:33:45,040
Speaker 2: has been using in order to just do whatever it

666
00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:47,360
Speaker 2: is that he wants to do with no input from

667
00:33:47,440 --> 00:33:48,800
Speaker 2: Congress whatsoever.

668
00:33:48,880 --> 00:33:49,720
Speaker 4: And I don't do not.

669
00:33:49,840 --> 00:33:52,280
Speaker 2: Think based on the fact that in the Senate yesterday

670
00:33:52,320 --> 00:33:54,240
Speaker 2: you had a few Republicans who voted along with the

671
00:33:54,240 --> 00:33:58,680
Speaker 2: Democrats to say no to the terrorists on canon in particular,

672
00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:01,120
Speaker 2: it's just a resolution have any impact. But that was

673
00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:03,120
Speaker 2: a sign that there are plenty of Republicans who are

674
00:34:03,120 --> 00:34:08,200
Speaker 2: also very uncomfortable with this particular direction. But you know, again,

675
00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:16,759
Speaker 2: in my view, this massive worldwide tariff scheme that completely

676
00:34:16,840 --> 00:34:21,239
Speaker 2: upends our economic model, it is wildly illegal for the

677
00:34:21,280 --> 00:34:23,520
Speaker 2: president to be able to do this just on its own.

678
00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:26,000
Speaker 2: Congress needs to reassert themselves. And like I said, we'll

679
00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:28,360
Speaker 2: see where it goes in the court system. But I

680
00:34:28,400 --> 00:34:31,080
Speaker 2: will say that, you know, previously the courts have given

681
00:34:31,080 --> 00:34:34,000
Speaker 2: the president pretty wide latitude, which is why you know

682
00:34:34,080 --> 00:34:36,960
Speaker 2: I wouldn't I wouldn't count on them to save us

683
00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:38,040
Speaker 2: from this insanity.

684
00:34:38,120 --> 00:34:40,959
Speaker 3: Well, see, this is where the legality of it all

685
00:34:41,080 --> 00:34:43,279
Speaker 3: really does matter. Because what did we all remember with

686
00:34:43,360 --> 00:34:44,120
Speaker 3: Canada and Mexico?

687
00:34:44,160 --> 00:34:44,840
Speaker 1: What was that about?

688
00:34:44,920 --> 00:34:47,719
Speaker 3: It was about fentanyl text right right? Well that here

689
00:34:47,800 --> 00:34:49,320
Speaker 3: I didn't even hear the word fantastic.

690
00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:52,799
Speaker 2: So I'll tell you he's not claiming fence. And all

691
00:34:52,840 --> 00:34:55,440
Speaker 2: this time he's invoking the i e e. P. A

692
00:34:56,440 --> 00:35:00,680
Speaker 2: to declare a national emergency citing large and person annual

693
00:35:00,840 --> 00:35:03,560
Speaker 2: US goods trade deficits as a threat to national and

694
00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:07,600
Speaker 2: economic security. So and he's claiming that as an unusual

695
00:35:07,600 --> 00:35:08,720
Speaker 2: and extraordinary threat.

696
00:35:08,760 --> 00:35:10,080
Speaker 4: That's the language.

697
00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:10,440
Speaker 5: You know.

698
00:35:10,560 --> 00:35:13,399
Speaker 2: Typically, the way that these provisions were thought of at

699
00:35:13,400 --> 00:35:16,520
Speaker 2: the time was like you're at war or you're going

700
00:35:16,560 --> 00:35:20,440
Speaker 2: to sanction a country, something along those lines, versus just

701
00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:22,920
Speaker 2: you know, basically, here he is like it's a crisis,

702
00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:25,279
Speaker 2: because I feel like it's a crisis, and so I

703
00:35:25,320 --> 00:35:28,480
Speaker 2: can do whatever I want here. So it is possible

704
00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:31,720
Speaker 2: that the courts will look skeptically upon that, especially because

705
00:35:32,120 --> 00:35:34,480
Speaker 2: you know a lot of these judges, even you know,

706
00:35:34,520 --> 00:35:38,360
Speaker 2: at the Supreme Court level and elsewhere, they're very h

707
00:35:38,800 --> 00:35:42,320
Speaker 2: you know, pro business, they're very like, you know, pro corporate,

708
00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:46,919
Speaker 2: and we're actually selected through the Federalist Society for these

709
00:35:47,080 --> 00:35:51,360
Speaker 2: very libertarian economic views. So it is possible that the

710
00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:53,160
Speaker 2: courts look at this and say, you know what, this

711
00:35:53,320 --> 00:35:56,680
Speaker 2: is just this is too far. But as I said before,

712
00:35:56,719 --> 00:35:58,640
Speaker 2: there's certainly no guarantees there whatsoever.

713
00:35:58,760 --> 00:35:59,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right.

714
00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:02,080
Speaker 3: So just again to just dig down on that, AIPA

715
00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:05,879
Speaker 3: strategy is one that was obviously has been used.

716
00:36:05,920 --> 00:36:07,800
Speaker 1: Trump has stretched it to its definition.

717
00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:10,320
Speaker 3: He was able to get away with it on Canada

718
00:36:10,360 --> 00:36:13,080
Speaker 3: and Mexico not just because of fentanyl, but because they

719
00:36:13,080 --> 00:36:15,920
Speaker 3: were never actually in place long enough to face major

720
00:36:15,960 --> 00:36:19,239
Speaker 3: court scrutiny this And this is where I want to

721
00:36:19,280 --> 00:36:21,600
Speaker 3: make at least that one case where I think the

722
00:36:21,640 --> 00:36:24,040
Speaker 3: only bowl case for this is that this is the

723
00:36:24,080 --> 00:36:27,200
Speaker 3: opening negotiating tactic, right, is that every country in the

724
00:36:27,200 --> 00:36:30,080
Speaker 3: world can just say, come forward, hat in hand. They

725
00:36:30,080 --> 00:36:33,200
Speaker 3: can't raise tariffs. That's what the Trump administration has made clear,

726
00:36:33,400 --> 00:36:35,480
Speaker 3: and they just have to say, okay, what can we

727
00:36:35,560 --> 00:36:37,520
Speaker 3: do for you. But you know what somebody made a

728
00:36:37,560 --> 00:36:40,160
Speaker 3: really good point is that we forget in this case

729
00:36:40,200 --> 00:36:43,279
Speaker 3: then that other countries have politics too. Look at what's

730
00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:47,600
Speaker 3: happened in Canada. Trump has basically turned the entire nation

731
00:36:47,680 --> 00:36:51,040
Speaker 3: of Canada from being on the verge of electing a

732
00:36:51,040 --> 00:36:56,160
Speaker 3: conservative to becoming the most like hyper patriotic liberal. Trudeau,

733
00:36:56,239 --> 00:36:58,200
Speaker 3: in a way, resigned far too early. He would be

734
00:36:58,200 --> 00:37:00,799
Speaker 3: one of the most popular right now if you have

735
00:37:00,800 --> 00:37:03,239
Speaker 3: just stayed this guy, Mark Carney, he's cruising, you know,

736
00:37:03,320 --> 00:37:06,839
Speaker 3: to wherever the next power is. But I actually think

737
00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:11,320
Speaker 3: about places like India or even China. You know, everyone's oh, China,

738
00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:12,400
Speaker 3: it's not a democracy.

739
00:37:12,520 --> 00:37:13,200
Speaker 1: No it's not.

740
00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:17,040
Speaker 3: But what you think the CCP doesn't incorporate public opinion

741
00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:19,840
Speaker 3: into its actions. What have they been selling their people

742
00:37:20,080 --> 00:37:23,160
Speaker 3: for a long time they actually have. The irony is

743
00:37:23,160 --> 00:37:25,680
Speaker 3: is that all of this is actually based on the

744
00:37:25,760 --> 00:37:28,400
Speaker 3: Chinese model. It's just that the Chinese model is smart

745
00:37:28,719 --> 00:37:32,160
Speaker 3: and also doesn't have to contend with four year elections,

746
00:37:32,160 --> 00:37:34,720
Speaker 3: and so it can plan over a twenty five year period.

747
00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:36,320
Speaker 1: And they have been telling people.

748
00:37:36,040 --> 00:37:38,799
Speaker 3: Over and over again that these ties between the United

749
00:37:38,800 --> 00:37:42,480
Speaker 3: States and US are economically precarious, that we as a

750
00:37:42,520 --> 00:37:45,560
Speaker 3: great power, can no longer be tooled around by the

751
00:37:45,600 --> 00:37:49,080
Speaker 3: Western imperialist states, that they're not reliable partners. That's why

752
00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:52,200
Speaker 3: you need to sacrifice and put up with our surveillance

753
00:37:52,280 --> 00:37:54,879
Speaker 3: capitalism so that we can at the same time, yes,

754
00:37:54,920 --> 00:37:58,040
Speaker 3: build you this, but give you flying taxis and drone

755
00:37:58,040 --> 00:38:02,280
Speaker 3: deliveries and as cars. And that's a very useful social

756
00:38:02,320 --> 00:38:05,040
Speaker 3: contract for them. But I also think about India. India

757
00:38:05,040 --> 00:38:07,360
Speaker 3: has now been slapped with a twenty six percent tariff,

758
00:38:07,400 --> 00:38:09,799
Speaker 3: and it's like, well, in any world where you were

759
00:38:09,880 --> 00:38:12,880
Speaker 3: going to quote counter China in the Asia Pacific, what

760
00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:14,759
Speaker 3: would you want to do. You would absolutely want to

761
00:38:14,800 --> 00:38:19,200
Speaker 3: consolidate power amongst the non Chinese dominated powers of India,

762
00:38:19,239 --> 00:38:21,799
Speaker 3: South Korea, and Japan. The those three nations that I

763
00:38:21,880 --> 00:38:24,880
Speaker 3: just listed, which are actually pretty decent allies to the

764
00:38:24,960 --> 00:38:27,759
Speaker 3: United States spend plenty on defense. If they're able to,

765
00:38:27,800 --> 00:38:29,800
Speaker 3: like in the case of South Korea and or India,

766
00:38:29,840 --> 00:38:31,680
Speaker 3: what are they going to do? India is the largest

767
00:38:31,719 --> 00:38:33,680
Speaker 3: democracy in the world. These are very you know, they

768
00:38:33,680 --> 00:38:37,239
Speaker 3: don't love America, especially after how Biden treated them for

769
00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:38,719
Speaker 3: the whole Ukraine situation.

770
00:38:38,920 --> 00:38:40,359
Speaker 1: They feel very upset about that.

771
00:38:40,600 --> 00:38:43,080
Speaker 3: In this case, there are nationalists people, they have a democracy,

772
00:38:43,120 --> 00:38:46,000
Speaker 3: they can vote. How to exactly is nir Indermodi supposed

773
00:38:46,040 --> 00:38:49,440
Speaker 3: to respond? Same in South Korea and Japan. These are democracies.

774
00:38:49,719 --> 00:38:53,040
Speaker 3: These are places which have actual politics. They are not

775
00:38:53,120 --> 00:38:55,400
Speaker 3: going to just sit down and you know, take this

776
00:38:55,480 --> 00:38:58,560
Speaker 3: line down up in the interim you might have some negotiation, etc.

777
00:38:58,840 --> 00:39:01,760
Speaker 3: But every time in the past where we've tried to interview,

778
00:39:01,840 --> 00:39:04,200
Speaker 3: let's say, in the South Korean case, there was this

779
00:39:04,280 --> 00:39:08,920
Speaker 3: whole thing that happened with FAD missiles. This is going

780
00:39:08,960 --> 00:39:11,680
Speaker 3: back a decade or so. Well, the South Korean populace

781
00:39:11,920 --> 00:39:14,399
Speaker 3: was not very happy with the United States over that

782
00:39:14,440 --> 00:39:16,360
Speaker 3: and in fact went in a very very different direction.

783
00:39:16,640 --> 00:39:18,879
Speaker 3: Things ended up going crazy because of the whole North

784
00:39:18,960 --> 00:39:22,680
Speaker 3: Korea situation. But I'm just giving examples about how balance

785
00:39:22,800 --> 00:39:25,160
Speaker 3: in that region in particular is so important. And that's

786
00:39:25,200 --> 00:39:27,600
Speaker 3: another reason I feel so galled, is that if you

787
00:39:27,640 --> 00:39:30,120
Speaker 3: look at the Asia Pacific, that is where you see

788
00:39:30,200 --> 00:39:32,799
Speaker 3: the highest tariffs that have been put into place. This

789
00:39:33,040 --> 00:39:35,520
Speaker 3: is a place what do I always say here, fifty

790
00:39:35,560 --> 00:39:38,120
Speaker 3: percent of global GDP is going to be there in

791
00:39:38,160 --> 00:39:41,399
Speaker 3: the next five years. You know, what are we trying

792
00:39:41,400 --> 00:39:43,400
Speaker 3: to say here that we're going to have the highest

793
00:39:43,400 --> 00:39:47,080
Speaker 3: tariffs in the fastest economically growing part of the world,

794
00:39:47,239 --> 00:39:49,880
Speaker 3: where the biggest population is and where all of our

795
00:39:49,920 --> 00:39:53,320
Speaker 3: economic future lies. The idea that you know and listen,

796
00:39:53,320 --> 00:39:55,399
Speaker 3: I would again love to be in a situation where

797
00:39:55,400 --> 00:39:57,360
Speaker 3: we're not reliant on them or any of that. But

798
00:39:57,400 --> 00:40:00,359
Speaker 3: you cannot release, for you cannot reverse forty five years

799
00:40:00,360 --> 00:40:03,000
Speaker 3: of policy in a single tariff related action.

800
00:40:02,960 --> 00:40:04,840
Speaker 4: Right, which is effective with a single chart.

801
00:40:04,719 --> 00:40:07,359
Speaker 3: With a single chart, with the chart which is chat

802
00:40:07,440 --> 00:40:10,480
Speaker 3: chipted and not even chat chipted correctly. Like I said,

803
00:40:10,520 --> 00:40:12,880
Speaker 3: I did it in five minutes. I said, chat chipet,

804
00:40:13,040 --> 00:40:17,200
Speaker 3: come up with a formula for me that balances reciprocal tariffs,

805
00:40:17,280 --> 00:40:19,799
Speaker 3: currency manipulation, and non teriffair give it to me in

806
00:40:19,800 --> 00:40:21,320
Speaker 3: five seconds, and then I was like, go ahead and

807
00:40:21,400 --> 00:40:22,720
Speaker 3: calculate this for Japan.

808
00:40:22,760 --> 00:40:24,880
Speaker 1: You know what it said on Japan. Based on this formula,

809
00:40:24,880 --> 00:40:26,880
Speaker 1: I would not put any more terrorts on Japan. So

810
00:40:26,960 --> 00:40:28,680
Speaker 1: there you go. So what does this.

811
00:40:28,680 --> 00:40:31,040
Speaker 2: Mean We should be cheering for the AI of Reliance

812
00:40:31,120 --> 00:40:34,200
Speaker 2: to take us over super intelligence come and save us

813
00:40:34,280 --> 00:40:35,799
Speaker 2: because this is not going very well.

814
00:40:35,960 --> 00:40:36,520
Speaker 1: No it's not.

815
00:40:36,680 --> 00:40:38,839
Speaker 3: I mean, look, maybe they'll roll this tape a year

816
00:40:38,880 --> 00:40:40,600
Speaker 3: from now and say, oh, you look like a joke

817
00:40:40,800 --> 00:40:44,279
Speaker 3: because you're you know, panicking or concerned troll. I mean

818
00:40:44,280 --> 00:40:46,359
Speaker 3: that's basically the MAGA response right now. Oh you guys

819
00:40:46,360 --> 00:40:48,919
Speaker 3: don't get it. There's a grand and a master plan.

820
00:40:49,000 --> 00:40:51,719
Speaker 3: But listen, what is it under what has happened with

821
00:40:51,800 --> 00:40:55,000
Speaker 3: Canada and Mexico. You cannot claim that because we keep

822
00:40:55,080 --> 00:40:57,360
Speaker 3: saying they're on, then they're off, and they're on and

823
00:40:57,360 --> 00:41:00,560
Speaker 3: they're off. And look, it's funny, you know, from the outside,

824
00:41:00,600 --> 00:41:02,759
Speaker 3: but I personally know of companies that have had to

825
00:41:02,800 --> 00:41:06,480
Speaker 3: spend millions of dollars while those while those tariffs were

826
00:41:06,520 --> 00:41:08,680
Speaker 3: in effect let's say, even for one day, yeah, or

827
00:41:08,719 --> 00:41:12,080
Speaker 3: for even one week. Ye, Like when you're moving billions

828
00:41:12,120 --> 00:41:15,000
Speaker 3: across the border. It's not all fun in games here.

829
00:41:15,320 --> 00:41:18,040
Speaker 3: And sure, if we were then to make that up

830
00:41:18,320 --> 00:41:20,399
Speaker 3: and say the government is then going to, let's say,

831
00:41:20,400 --> 00:41:22,320
Speaker 3: give you a tax break on this in the future,

832
00:41:22,400 --> 00:41:24,319
Speaker 3: I would say fine, because then I know then that

833
00:41:24,400 --> 00:41:26,640
Speaker 3: no American is going to lose their job as a

834
00:41:26,680 --> 00:41:29,360
Speaker 3: result of it. But no messing with people's jobs, messing

835
00:41:29,360 --> 00:41:32,360
Speaker 3: with people's retirement accounts and all that. That's that is

836
00:41:32,400 --> 00:41:33,680
Speaker 3: the forest bridge for me.

837
00:41:33,840 --> 00:41:36,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, really no, that's that's absolutely right. It's easy to

838
00:41:36,640 --> 00:41:40,440
Speaker 2: lose sight of these are real human beings and you

839
00:41:40,640 --> 00:41:44,600
Speaker 2: are screwing with their entire lives, with their entire lives.

840
00:41:47,080 --> 00:41:50,360
Speaker 2: Let's go ahead and move to the you know, immediate

841
00:41:50,560 --> 00:41:55,319
Speaker 2: reaction from CNBC, which was like, holy hell, this was

842
00:41:55,360 --> 00:41:58,359
Speaker 2: worse than any of us could have possibly imagined. Let's

843
00:41:58,360 --> 00:41:59,959
Speaker 2: go ahead and take a listen to what they end.

844
00:41:59,840 --> 00:42:04,439
Speaker 8: Is market reaction after hours. I've never seen anything like it. This,

845
00:42:04,880 --> 00:42:07,680
Speaker 8: I think fair to say is worse than the worst

846
00:42:07,760 --> 00:42:11,400
Speaker 8: case scenario of the tariffs that many in the market

847
00:42:11,480 --> 00:42:15,600
Speaker 8: expected the President to impose. You laid out a number

848
00:42:15,640 --> 00:42:18,879
Speaker 8: of the percentages there, and there's some question of how

849
00:42:18,920 --> 00:42:24,319
Speaker 8: the administration calculated the percentages that they're responding to in

850
00:42:24,400 --> 00:42:27,400
Speaker 8: each of these cases, are they adding in value added taxes?

851
00:42:27,440 --> 00:42:32,920
Speaker 8: He talked about, you know, non tariff barriers as well,

852
00:42:33,239 --> 00:42:36,400
Speaker 8: So I think while many were hoping that this would

853
00:42:36,520 --> 00:42:41,120
Speaker 8: eliminate uncertainty, there's going to be more uncertainty in the

854
00:42:41,120 --> 00:42:45,920
Speaker 8: market and from those watching policy tomorrow on, well, you know,

855
00:42:46,520 --> 00:42:50,880
Speaker 8: if countries push back on how these non tariff barriers

856
00:42:51,160 --> 00:42:54,479
Speaker 8: were calculated, will there be wiggle room here? Exactly when

857
00:42:54,560 --> 00:42:58,200
Speaker 8: do these go into effect? How quickly are companies going

858
00:42:58,239 --> 00:43:01,040
Speaker 8: to have to adjust their pricing? So many questions.

859
00:43:01,400 --> 00:43:04,200
Speaker 4: Worse than the worst case scenario is there.

860
00:43:04,000 --> 00:43:07,080
Speaker 1: It's actually watching it live. It was. It was pretty extraordinary.

861
00:43:07,160 --> 00:43:09,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is where I have to balance, Like, look,

862
00:43:09,000 --> 00:43:11,160
Speaker 3: it's always fun to see Wall Street elites and all

863
00:43:11,200 --> 00:43:13,399
Speaker 3: of them panic, But that's my point is that it's

864
00:43:13,400 --> 00:43:15,759
Speaker 3: really not about them, and in fact, they're a straw man.

865
00:43:16,000 --> 00:43:20,560
Speaker 3: Because anybody on CNBC, any hedge funder or whatever, they're

866
00:43:20,560 --> 00:43:22,520
Speaker 3: going to be all right, okay. But you know who's

867
00:43:22,520 --> 00:43:25,799
Speaker 3: not going to be alright? Somebody who company has a

868
00:43:25,840 --> 00:43:29,480
Speaker 3: liquidity crunch and then fires ten percent of its workforce overnight.

869
00:43:29,680 --> 00:43:31,839
Speaker 3: I mean, that's another problem with America and I would

870
00:43:31,880 --> 00:43:35,640
Speaker 3: love to fix this. We are massively over financialized. Many

871
00:43:35,640 --> 00:43:38,000
Speaker 3: of these companies are running on razor thin margins and

872
00:43:38,080 --> 00:43:39,320
Speaker 3: are constantly borrowing.

873
00:43:39,400 --> 00:43:40,640
Speaker 1: You know, I learned this, for.

874
00:43:40,560 --> 00:43:43,920
Speaker 3: Example during the financial crisis, where the CEO of gees like,

875
00:43:43,960 --> 00:43:46,879
Speaker 3: we can't make payroll because they're constantly borrowing, like it's

876
00:43:46,960 --> 00:43:49,200
Speaker 3: called like commercial paper or something, in order to make

877
00:43:49,239 --> 00:43:51,640
Speaker 3: their payroll. And you're like, wait, what, like how do

878
00:43:51,680 --> 00:43:52,800
Speaker 3: you operate a business?

879
00:43:52,840 --> 00:43:56,040
Speaker 4: And they they literally couldn't call commercial.

880
00:43:55,600 --> 00:43:57,960
Speaker 3: Paper that's why they could not make payroll, and their

881
00:43:58,000 --> 00:43:59,960
Speaker 3: CEOs calling Bush being like, we need to bail out

882
00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:01,280
Speaker 3: tomorrow otherwise we're.

883
00:44:01,160 --> 00:44:01,840
Speaker 1: Going to die.

884
00:44:01,960 --> 00:44:04,800
Speaker 3: Well, you know, not much has changed on the commercial

885
00:44:04,800 --> 00:44:06,080
Speaker 3: books since that time.

886
00:44:05,960 --> 00:44:08,480
Speaker 4: Around gotten work where we're financially we're have.

887
00:44:08,480 --> 00:44:12,840
Speaker 3: More financialized, yeah, more leverage, more reliant on liquidity.

888
00:44:12,880 --> 00:44:15,080
Speaker 1: By the way, what's overlaying all of this. We still

889
00:44:15,120 --> 00:44:16,920
Speaker 1: have relatively you.

890
00:44:16,840 --> 00:44:20,400
Speaker 3: Know, intern modern times higher interest rates, so the borrowing

891
00:44:20,440 --> 00:44:23,120
Speaker 3: cost is very high at the same time that you

892
00:44:23,160 --> 00:44:25,719
Speaker 3: may need let's say bridge or something. You know, where

893
00:44:25,800 --> 00:44:28,560
Speaker 3: is the Federal Reserve here, Howard Lutnick said this morning,

894
00:44:28,680 --> 00:44:30,520
Speaker 3: don't worry, we're going to have lower interest rates.

895
00:44:30,640 --> 00:44:33,120
Speaker 1: You can't say that. You can't guarantee that at all.

896
00:44:33,400 --> 00:44:35,600
Speaker 3: You might be right, because you're probably going to induce

897
00:44:35,600 --> 00:44:38,319
Speaker 3: some sort of economic contraction. But you know, when you

898
00:44:38,400 --> 00:44:41,759
Speaker 3: have what four or five six percent interest rate and

899
00:44:42,000 --> 00:44:44,480
Speaker 3: you have overall contraction, I mean, you're just setting us

900
00:44:44,560 --> 00:44:45,480
Speaker 3: up for stagflation.

901
00:44:45,640 --> 00:44:47,600
Speaker 2: That's right in the interim well, and that's where the

902
00:44:47,600 --> 00:44:50,719
Speaker 2: federal reserve will be in an absolute bind because on

903
00:44:50,760 --> 00:44:53,560
Speaker 2: the one hand, yes, you're going to have a drop

904
00:44:53,640 --> 00:44:56,640
Speaker 2: in GDP and in growth that would push you in

905
00:44:56,680 --> 00:44:59,320
Speaker 2: the direction of cutting interest rates. On the other hand,

906
00:44:59,560 --> 00:45:04,720
Speaker 2: you're likely you have significant inflation because of the tariffs,

907
00:45:04,760 --> 00:45:08,000
Speaker 2: which would put you in the direction of lifting interest rates.

908
00:45:08,280 --> 00:45:12,480
Speaker 2: So that's why stagflation, in addition to being economically devastating,

909
00:45:12,800 --> 00:45:17,000
Speaker 2: it's very difficult to deal with because it pushes the

910
00:45:17,040 --> 00:45:21,120
Speaker 2: federal reserve in both directions at once. So certainly there

911
00:45:21,120 --> 00:45:23,759
Speaker 2: are no guarantees that interest rates are going to be

912
00:45:23,800 --> 00:45:30,520
Speaker 2: cut whatsoever. And know, every reasonable thinking person is now

913
00:45:30,600 --> 00:45:34,520
Speaker 2: also massively increasing. There are odds that we are going

914
00:45:34,560 --> 00:45:38,319
Speaker 2: to face a recession. Mark Sandy, who's the analyst for

915
00:45:38,600 --> 00:45:42,360
Speaker 2: Moody's Analytics, went on News Nation and said he thinks

916
00:45:42,400 --> 00:45:44,960
Speaker 2: it's hard to imagine at this point that we will

917
00:45:45,000 --> 00:45:46,560
Speaker 2: be able to avoid a recession.

918
00:45:46,600 --> 00:45:47,680
Speaker 4: Let's go ahead and take a listen.

919
00:45:47,480 --> 00:45:50,440
Speaker 9: To him, Big Mark Sandy Ann, who's the economist at

920
00:45:50,440 --> 00:45:54,200
Speaker 9: Moody's Analytics, who's recently gone to forty percent odds of

921
00:45:54,239 --> 00:45:56,279
Speaker 9: a recession happening by the end of this year in

922
00:45:56,280 --> 00:45:59,560
Speaker 9: the United States. So after listening to the President, you

923
00:45:59,600 --> 00:46:00,960
Speaker 9: want to go hire or lower than that.

924
00:46:01,680 --> 00:46:02,000
Speaker 1: Hire.

925
00:46:02,600 --> 00:46:04,839
Speaker 10: Those are big numbers, Connell, did you look at them?

926
00:46:04,960 --> 00:46:06,640
Speaker 10: I mean, those are really large numbers. If you do

927
00:46:06,680 --> 00:46:09,719
Speaker 10: the arithmeticket looks like a twenty percent effective terrorf rate,

928
00:46:09,760 --> 00:46:11,920
Speaker 10: and that you know he's carving out it feels like

929
00:46:12,000 --> 00:46:14,239
Speaker 10: it looks like because you see a Canada Mexico in

930
00:46:14,280 --> 00:46:16,880
Speaker 10: the chart, no carving out at USMCA. So even with

931
00:46:16,920 --> 00:46:19,719
Speaker 10: the carve out, you're I think you're a twenty And

932
00:46:19,760 --> 00:46:22,279
Speaker 10: if that's actually what's implemented, and if you have any

933
00:46:22,360 --> 00:46:25,719
Speaker 10: kind of retaliation, which I would anticipate, I don't see

934
00:46:25,719 --> 00:46:26,720
Speaker 10: how we avoid recession.

935
00:46:26,760 --> 00:46:27,400
Speaker 1: I really don't.

936
00:46:27,480 --> 00:46:30,200
Speaker 9: On average, you say you're talking about twenty on average

937
00:46:30,239 --> 00:46:31,840
Speaker 9: when you work out those numbers like what I was

938
00:46:31,840 --> 00:46:34,240
Speaker 9: talking about, China's thirty four and so on in Japan

939
00:46:34,360 --> 00:46:36,480
Speaker 9: twenty four. So you say it's about a twenty percent

940
00:46:36,520 --> 00:46:40,440
Speaker 9: on average. So you say the odds of recession, you know.

941
00:46:40,840 --> 00:46:42,520
Speaker 10: I hesitate to say, but it look feels like it's

942
00:46:42,520 --> 00:46:44,040
Speaker 10: better than even odds at this point, I mean, I

943
00:46:44,120 --> 00:46:45,640
Speaker 10: have to do the arithmetic and go look at it.

944
00:46:45,680 --> 00:46:50,719
Speaker 10: And obviously a lot depends on if these are actually implemented,

945
00:46:50,960 --> 00:46:54,319
Speaker 10: which is a open question given how these are on again,

946
00:46:54,360 --> 00:46:54,759
Speaker 10: off again.

947
00:46:54,800 --> 00:46:56,960
Speaker 1: And we'll see over the next few.

948
00:46:56,840 --> 00:46:59,279
Speaker 10: Days how our trading partners respond to this. You know,

949
00:46:59,360 --> 00:47:01,520
Speaker 10: if they are more circumspect and cautious, then.

950
00:47:03,120 --> 00:47:05,320
Speaker 1: We can maybe breathe more easily.

951
00:47:05,400 --> 00:47:08,680
Speaker 10: But if they're retaliate and kind or close to I

952
00:47:08,760 --> 00:47:10,400
Speaker 10: really don't see how we avoid recession.

953
00:47:10,600 --> 00:47:12,960
Speaker 2: Don't see how we avoid our resishment.

954
00:47:13,120 --> 00:47:15,200
Speaker 3: Don't take that to the bank. But I think we've

955
00:47:15,239 --> 00:47:18,200
Speaker 3: said this before. You know, the problem is that now,

956
00:47:18,440 --> 00:47:22,160
Speaker 3: in an era of uncertainty, people go with who they trust. Now,

957
00:47:22,440 --> 00:47:24,600
Speaker 3: do you necessarily want to live in a world where

958
00:47:24,640 --> 00:47:26,560
Speaker 3: the ratings agencies and all of them are the people

959
00:47:26,719 --> 00:47:28,160
Speaker 3: who are still trusted by Wall Street?

960
00:47:28,160 --> 00:47:28,680
Speaker 1: No, you don't.

961
00:47:28,719 --> 00:47:30,640
Speaker 3: Obviously, It's not like these economists and all of that

962
00:47:30,920 --> 00:47:33,440
Speaker 3: are the greatest geniuses who haven't been wrong a lot.

963
00:47:33,560 --> 00:47:36,080
Speaker 3: But if you have a lot of social capital, it

964
00:47:36,120 --> 00:47:39,319
Speaker 3: can become self reinforcing. I've said this before. We run

965
00:47:39,360 --> 00:47:41,400
Speaker 3: a business here. If if I had this level of

966
00:47:41,480 --> 00:47:44,280
Speaker 3: uncertainty about what the future is, we're not hiring anyone,

967
00:47:44,480 --> 00:47:46,960
Speaker 3: we're not doing anything new. In fact, we're taking this

968
00:47:47,000 --> 00:47:47,800
Speaker 3: spending and we're.

969
00:47:47,680 --> 00:47:48,959
Speaker 1: Going weighed down.

970
00:47:49,040 --> 00:47:51,520
Speaker 3: You're in a stockpile as much cash as possible and

971
00:47:51,560 --> 00:47:52,960
Speaker 3: just say okay, let's see.

972
00:47:52,800 --> 00:47:53,800
Speaker 4: Let's see what it goes.

973
00:47:54,120 --> 00:47:55,120
Speaker 1: Right, that's exactly right.

974
00:47:55,200 --> 00:47:58,800
Speaker 3: No more credit, you know, nothing, any of that that's

975
00:47:58,840 --> 00:48:02,279
Speaker 3: not good for We're all economic activity. Now, let's say

976
00:48:02,320 --> 00:48:04,760
Speaker 3: that words tiny little small business compared to the overall

977
00:48:05,080 --> 00:48:08,280
Speaker 3: US market. Now, let's say that you are JP Morgan

978
00:48:08,480 --> 00:48:13,760
Speaker 3: or Goldman, Sachs or Toyota or GM or Ford. Another

979
00:48:13,800 --> 00:48:16,080
Speaker 3: thing on here is that all of this is designed

980
00:48:16,080 --> 00:48:19,200
Speaker 3: to bring back manufacturing. The problem that I see right

981
00:48:19,239 --> 00:48:22,680
Speaker 3: now is that we are giving zero break to the

982
00:48:22,760 --> 00:48:26,799
Speaker 3: manufacturers who are building things in America but have things

983
00:48:26,800 --> 00:48:29,560
Speaker 3: that they have to bring in in order to make

984
00:48:29,640 --> 00:48:32,920
Speaker 3: said finished product. That's the whole idea of like importing

985
00:48:32,960 --> 00:48:35,920
Speaker 3: parts and then assembly here at home. It's actually one

986
00:48:35,960 --> 00:48:39,279
Speaker 3: of the correctives that was applied by neoliberals in the

987
00:48:39,320 --> 00:48:42,279
Speaker 3: case for why high tech manufacturing, et cetera is a

988
00:48:42,320 --> 00:48:44,520
Speaker 3: good thing. Now, I don't think they've proven correct I

989
00:48:44,560 --> 00:48:47,000
Speaker 3: would be fine with building more finished parts, et cetera.

990
00:48:47,320 --> 00:48:49,280
Speaker 1: Here, what do I keep.

991
00:48:49,120 --> 00:48:51,239
Speaker 3: Coming back to, do you know how much money that

992
00:48:51,280 --> 00:48:54,160
Speaker 3: you need in order to build those factories? I mean,

993
00:48:54,280 --> 00:48:57,719
Speaker 3: look at the TSNs plant in Arizona. The chipsack past

994
00:48:57,920 --> 00:49:01,560
Speaker 3: years ago, it's still several years from coming online. This

995
00:49:01,600 --> 00:49:03,840
Speaker 3: stuff takes a lot of time. It takes billions and

996
00:49:03,880 --> 00:49:07,440
Speaker 3: billions and billions of dollars. It takes the actual competence.

997
00:49:07,480 --> 00:49:09,879
Speaker 3: That's I'm just talking about chips I mean to think

998
00:49:09,920 --> 00:49:12,279
Speaker 3: about textiles or any of these other things. And then

999
00:49:12,280 --> 00:49:14,600
Speaker 3: we also should have an honest conversation, even as someone

1000
00:49:14,600 --> 00:49:16,880
Speaker 3: who is pro manufacturing, and I don't think that we

1001
00:49:16,880 --> 00:49:18,759
Speaker 3: should have it so that you must have a four

1002
00:49:18,840 --> 00:49:20,640
Speaker 3: year college degree or whatever to be able to make

1003
00:49:20,800 --> 00:49:23,239
Speaker 3: a multi six figure job. But this is again where

1004
00:49:23,239 --> 00:49:25,319
Speaker 3: I hate to sound like Milton Friedman. There are certain

1005
00:49:25,360 --> 00:49:28,920
Speaker 3: types of manufacturing which many Americans. It's not only that

1006
00:49:28,960 --> 00:49:31,920
Speaker 3: we don't want to do, it's that, you know, if

1007
00:49:31,920 --> 00:49:34,520
Speaker 3: you look at a basic level, it's not even something

1008
00:49:34,560 --> 00:49:38,480
Speaker 3: that we necessarily have the best competence at, and that

1009
00:49:38,640 --> 00:49:40,680
Speaker 3: if we did have it here could have.

1010
00:49:40,640 --> 00:49:42,440
Speaker 1: All sorts of downstream social effects.

1011
00:49:42,560 --> 00:49:45,319
Speaker 3: Now, the problem, I think is in nilibs have taken

1012
00:49:45,320 --> 00:49:48,239
Speaker 3: that way too far for all manufacturing, right, But it's

1013
00:49:48,280 --> 00:49:51,279
Speaker 3: not like the idea itself is not incorrect. So I mean,

1014
00:49:51,960 --> 00:49:54,160
Speaker 3: very difficult position here because I genuinely feel like I'm

1015
00:49:54,160 --> 00:49:56,560
Speaker 3: talking like Milton Friedman and I don't want to These

1016
00:49:56,560 --> 00:49:57,560
Speaker 3: people have been wrong.

1017
00:49:57,360 --> 00:49:59,719
Speaker 2: And that's part of what is so devastating here, is

1018
00:49:59,760 --> 00:50:02,920
Speaker 2: that they are ruining tariffs in terms of a policy.

1019
00:50:03,280 --> 00:50:06,040
Speaker 2: Like the next time anyone floats like, hey, let's do

1020
00:50:06,200 --> 00:50:08,960
Speaker 2: terrafts industrial, the public is going to be like, hell no.

1021
00:50:09,360 --> 00:50:12,040
Speaker 2: The last time this happened, we had a massive recession,

1022
00:50:12,320 --> 00:50:15,239
Speaker 2: we all got poor. I couldn't afford anything like no,

1023
00:50:15,360 --> 00:50:17,799
Speaker 2: we're not doing that again. And so for people who

1024
00:50:17,960 --> 00:50:20,520
Speaker 2: do think that, you know, there are certain key industries

1025
00:50:20,719 --> 00:50:23,880
Speaker 2: that it would be important to protect and to build

1026
00:50:23,960 --> 00:50:26,120
Speaker 2: up year in America. I mean, this was a big

1027
00:50:26,239 --> 00:50:29,239
Speaker 2: learning from COVID. I think that many people who had

1028
00:50:29,280 --> 00:50:31,719
Speaker 2: been more skeptical of tariffs also took in at that

1029
00:50:31,760 --> 00:50:35,960
Speaker 2: time is how fragile the nation's economy was because so

1030
00:50:36,120 --> 00:50:38,960
Speaker 2: many key supply lines had moved overseas. How we were

1031
00:50:39,040 --> 00:50:42,240
Speaker 2: unable to protect ourselves even with basic like ppe because

1032
00:50:42,239 --> 00:50:45,600
Speaker 2: that was also all abroad. These things are really important,

1033
00:50:45,960 --> 00:50:49,040
Speaker 2: and he is going to destroy the appetite to do

1034
00:50:49,160 --> 00:50:55,160
Speaker 2: any sort of actually intelligent terror plus industrial policy moving forward.

1035
00:50:55,520 --> 00:50:58,840
Speaker 2: But you know, to go back to this risk of recession,

1036
00:50:59,239 --> 00:51:03,759
Speaker 2: which is extremely real at this point. You know, it's

1037
00:51:03,800 --> 00:51:07,120
Speaker 2: not that there's no winners in recession. Coming out of

1038
00:51:07,160 --> 00:51:09,600
Speaker 2: the financial crisis of two thousand and eight oh.

1039
00:51:09,560 --> 00:51:10,320
Speaker 1: Nine, a lot of winners.

1040
00:51:10,400 --> 00:51:13,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, banks got bigger than ever, people who were at

1041
00:51:13,320 --> 00:51:16,440
Speaker 2: the very tippy top. For them, it was a buying opportunity.

1042
00:51:16,680 --> 00:51:19,080
Speaker 2: You know, assets were cheap, they could buy up all kinds.

1043
00:51:19,120 --> 00:51:20,640
Speaker 2: I mean, that's how we really got set on this

1044
00:51:20,719 --> 00:51:24,560
Speaker 2: path of having so many investor owned homes. A lot

1045
00:51:24,600 --> 00:51:28,200
Speaker 2: of that came out directly of the housing related financial

1046
00:51:28,200 --> 00:51:32,160
Speaker 2: crash out of COVID. We also the numbers the billionaires,

1047
00:51:32,200 --> 00:51:34,279
Speaker 2: the Elon Musks, the Mark Zuckerberg's, the.

1048
00:51:34,239 --> 00:51:35,479
Speaker 4: Jeff Bezos of the world.

1049
00:51:36,440 --> 00:51:41,320
Speaker 2: They got richer than ever coming out of the COVID

1050
00:51:41,600 --> 00:51:46,000
Speaker 2: economic crash and pain. So for the people who are

1051
00:51:46,160 --> 00:51:48,440
Speaker 2: I'm not even talking about like your average wall streeter.

1052
00:51:48,760 --> 00:51:50,520
Speaker 2: I'm talking about the people who are at the very

1053
00:51:50,560 --> 00:51:55,640
Speaker 2: tippy top. A recession is a buying opportunity to consolidate

1054
00:51:55,840 --> 00:51:59,640
Speaker 2: and buy up even more of our economy than they

1055
00:51:59,640 --> 00:52:03,000
Speaker 2: already have. And I think that's also important to keep

1056
00:52:03,000 --> 00:52:05,360
Speaker 2: in mind when you're looking at this and going like

1057
00:52:05,480 --> 00:52:08,880
Speaker 2: Jesus Christ, don't you know that you're causing a recession?

1058
00:52:09,520 --> 00:52:13,080
Speaker 2: Just remember that people like Elon Musk, for them, a

1059
00:52:13,200 --> 00:52:17,240
Speaker 2: recession is an opportunity. And what we've seen in certainly

1060
00:52:17,280 --> 00:52:20,840
Speaker 2: recent history with these crashes is it just makes the

1061
00:52:20,960 --> 00:52:25,040
Speaker 2: richest of the rich even wealthier and gives them even

1062
00:52:25,239 --> 00:52:27,760
Speaker 2: more power. You know, to go to your point Zager

1063
00:52:27,920 --> 00:52:35,040
Speaker 2: about the reshoring of manufacturing, even in an intelligently designed process,

1064
00:52:35,360 --> 00:52:37,880
Speaker 2: we also have to acknowledge the fact, and this was

1065
00:52:37,920 --> 00:52:40,320
Speaker 2: a point that actually the menswear guy was making online.

1066
00:52:40,440 --> 00:52:43,000
Speaker 2: If you're thinking about like bringing back textiles, do you

1067
00:52:43,040 --> 00:52:45,080
Speaker 2: think that's going to use the same number of people

1068
00:52:45,080 --> 00:52:47,080
Speaker 2: that it did in nineteen seventy two?

1069
00:52:47,520 --> 00:52:48,000
Speaker 4: Of course not.

1070
00:52:48,440 --> 00:52:51,360
Speaker 2: I mean, we are on the cusp of this massive

1071
00:52:51,480 --> 00:52:55,000
Speaker 2: AI revolution. Some of this is already some of that

1072
00:52:55,040 --> 00:52:59,479
Speaker 2: future is already here. So companies, even if they did,

1073
00:52:59,560 --> 00:53:01,719
Speaker 2: even if you did something intelligent, and even if they

1074
00:53:01,800 --> 00:53:05,920
Speaker 2: did bring manufacturing back here, it's not going to be

1075
00:53:06,560 --> 00:53:09,480
Speaker 2: the same number of jobs, the same level of wages.

1076
00:53:09,600 --> 00:53:11,880
Speaker 2: They're going to look to automate as much of that

1077
00:53:11,960 --> 00:53:15,920
Speaker 2: process as they possibly can. So, you know, the whole

1078
00:53:15,920 --> 00:53:19,080
Speaker 2: thing is just outrageous. And then you know, the last

1079
00:53:19,080 --> 00:53:21,840
Speaker 2: thing I'll say with regard to the market reaction the

1080
00:53:21,880 --> 00:53:24,680
Speaker 2: freak own on CNBC, etc. Is like, you know, he

1081
00:53:24,760 --> 00:53:27,759
Speaker 2: did say this the whole campaign, not exactly this. This

1082
00:53:27,840 --> 00:53:30,520
Speaker 2: goes even beyond some of the things he was saying

1083
00:53:30,560 --> 00:53:31,320
Speaker 2: on the campaign.

1084
00:53:31,840 --> 00:53:33,120
Speaker 4: But I do think.

1085
00:53:32,920 --> 00:53:36,680
Speaker 2: That because he's all over the place, and because some

1086
00:53:36,719 --> 00:53:38,719
Speaker 2: of the things he said before his first term he

1087
00:53:38,800 --> 00:53:41,719
Speaker 2: never followed through with, etc. I think there was a

1088
00:53:41,760 --> 00:53:45,239
Speaker 2: tendency to hear from Trump what they wanted to hear,

1089
00:53:45,719 --> 00:53:48,960
Speaker 2: versus actually listening to what he was truly saying. And

1090
00:53:49,000 --> 00:53:50,759
Speaker 2: this is a note that of course Jeff Stein has

1091
00:53:50,800 --> 00:53:55,120
Speaker 2: been sounding consistently. He's been saying over and over again, Guys,

1092
00:53:55,360 --> 00:53:59,640
Speaker 2: they're serious about this. This is not just some negotiating

1093
00:53:59,760 --> 00:54:03,560
Speaker 2: tap you know that's gonna fade down over time. He

1094
00:54:03,680 --> 00:54:06,040
Speaker 2: thinks that he didn't do enough on tariffs in the

1095
00:54:06,040 --> 00:54:08,880
Speaker 2: first term, and that people who were there were holding

1096
00:54:08,960 --> 00:54:12,080
Speaker 2: him back, and this time he doesn't give a shit

1097
00:54:12,200 --> 00:54:15,239
Speaker 2: and he is going to go big. And again, think

1098
00:54:15,280 --> 00:54:20,440
Speaker 2: of how it benefits Trump himself and how much he

1099
00:54:20,480 --> 00:54:25,360
Speaker 2: will enjoy being able to dole out favors or issue

1100
00:54:25,400 --> 00:54:30,360
Speaker 2: punishments using the tariff policy as a weapon so that

1101
00:54:30,600 --> 00:54:34,240
Speaker 2: he can compel whatever sort of behavior he wants to compel.

1102
00:54:34,520 --> 00:54:38,080
Speaker 2: Because industry is you know, a lot of industry has

1103
00:54:39,000 --> 00:54:41,640
Speaker 2: sort of become pro Trump. You know, that's been part

1104
00:54:41,680 --> 00:54:44,040
Speaker 2: of the vibe ship, and certainly after he won, you

1105
00:54:44,120 --> 00:54:46,440
Speaker 2: had all of these oligarchs that were lining up behind him.

1106
00:54:46,480 --> 00:54:48,440
Speaker 2: You know, they were the intelligent ones who realized right

1107
00:54:48,440 --> 00:54:50,440
Speaker 2: away what time of day it was, that like, Okay,

1108
00:54:50,480 --> 00:54:52,279
Speaker 2: this is what this guy is doing, and if I

1109
00:54:52,320 --> 00:54:54,200
Speaker 2: want my business to succeed, I better be in his

1110
00:54:54,239 --> 00:54:59,000
Speaker 2: good graces. But industry can be another power center, and

1111
00:54:59,040 --> 00:55:03,000
Speaker 2: he does not want the possibility of having any rival

1112
00:55:03,040 --> 00:55:06,239
Speaker 2: power center. So I think that is really the core

1113
00:55:06,320 --> 00:55:09,800
Speaker 2: to understanding what otherwise is just madness on its face.

1114
00:55:10,000 --> 00:55:12,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, right, And coming back just finally, I think on

1115
00:55:12,800 --> 00:55:16,000
Speaker 3: the in terms of reaction and for all of this

1116
00:55:16,239 --> 00:55:19,359
Speaker 3: is just a general theory of how this can all

1117
00:55:19,680 --> 00:55:22,400
Speaker 3: play out in the future. I just think that the

1118
00:55:23,080 --> 00:55:25,919
Speaker 3: I think with returning to that idea, let's say, even

1119
00:55:25,920 --> 00:55:28,000
Speaker 3: with the ten percent tariff, you could even argue for

1120
00:55:28,040 --> 00:55:30,839
Speaker 3: a ten percent tariff, and the balance behind it would

1121
00:55:30,840 --> 00:55:33,440
Speaker 3: be this is that that would prevent any sort of

1122
00:55:33,520 --> 00:55:37,600
Speaker 3: gaming of transhipping, et cetera. And ten percent, while high,

1123
00:55:37,640 --> 00:55:42,040
Speaker 3: don't get me wrong, would also be more manageable thirty percent,

1124
00:55:42,239 --> 00:55:45,200
Speaker 3: which is where we're currently at, or forty or fifty

1125
00:55:45,480 --> 00:55:47,879
Speaker 3: in the case of some countries like Vietnam our number

1126
00:55:47,920 --> 00:55:49,000
Speaker 3: eight trading partner.

1127
00:55:49,200 --> 00:55:51,560
Speaker 1: That's not a world where he ran on.

1128
00:55:51,920 --> 00:55:54,200
Speaker 3: This is why it actually is completely out of step

1129
00:55:54,520 --> 00:55:57,920
Speaker 3: with even the rhetoric of the speech. The speech was

1130
00:55:57,960 --> 00:56:02,600
Speaker 3: about reciprocal tariffs trade Barrett, that's not what's happening, right,

1131
00:56:02,640 --> 00:56:05,319
Speaker 3: and that's actually what's driving me nuts. Do world where

1132
00:56:05,360 --> 00:56:08,120
Speaker 3: you do a reciprocal tariff, Okay, it's honestly not hard.

1133
00:56:08,320 --> 00:56:11,040
Speaker 3: Another one that they mentioned, for example, is and this

1134
00:56:11,080 --> 00:56:13,880
Speaker 3: is where my Maha folks should be on board. They

1135
00:56:13,920 --> 00:56:17,719
Speaker 3: were like, nobody's buying American beef in Australia. Yeah, you

1136
00:56:17,760 --> 00:56:21,080
Speaker 3: know why, because they think it's gross. They're like, not

1137
00:56:21,160 --> 00:56:23,399
Speaker 3: only are we afraid of mad cow disease, you guys

1138
00:56:23,480 --> 00:56:26,120
Speaker 3: use all these disgusting hormones. We don't want that shit

1139
00:56:26,440 --> 00:56:30,319
Speaker 3: in our country. In many other countries in Asia, for example.

1140
00:56:30,000 --> 00:56:32,360
Speaker 2: What Nick told me on Sean Hannity last night that

1141
00:56:32,400 --> 00:56:36,360
Speaker 2: it's because our beef is beautiful and this beef is

1142
00:56:36,480 --> 00:56:39,480
Speaker 2: very weak. If our beef was beautiful, passes for an

1143
00:56:39,560 --> 00:56:40,040
Speaker 2: argument on it.

1144
00:56:40,080 --> 00:56:42,120
Speaker 3: If our beef was beautiful, our people would beautiful. And

1145
00:56:42,160 --> 00:56:44,480
Speaker 3: we can just take a look at the obesity rates

1146
00:56:44,680 --> 00:56:46,680
Speaker 3: on that one. Go look at what an actual cow

1147
00:56:46,760 --> 00:56:49,480
Speaker 3: that you're probably eating looks like it's fucking disgusting. Okay,

1148
00:56:49,920 --> 00:56:52,440
Speaker 3: And that's my point is if you go to Asia,

1149
00:56:52,680 --> 00:56:55,719
Speaker 3: there's like this specific antibiotic or something, I forget it.

1150
00:56:55,640 --> 00:56:58,640
Speaker 1: It starts with an art something mean that we use here.

1151
00:56:58,760 --> 00:57:00,640
Speaker 3: They're like, we won't let you pois and our children

1152
00:57:00,640 --> 00:57:03,239
Speaker 3: whenever we ask them to buy American beef our pork,

1153
00:57:03,239 --> 00:57:05,560
Speaker 3: they're like, no, we're not allowing that. This is where

1154
00:57:05,600 --> 00:57:08,000
Speaker 3: our Maha folks should be on board. The reason that

1155
00:57:08,040 --> 00:57:10,640
Speaker 3: some countries don't allow us food is because they think

1156
00:57:10,680 --> 00:57:12,960
Speaker 3: it's filthy and gross, and they're not wrong.

1157
00:57:13,320 --> 00:57:13,719
Speaker 1: In many.

1158
00:57:14,960 --> 00:57:17,720
Speaker 3: So, for if we want people to buy more of

1159
00:57:17,760 --> 00:57:21,240
Speaker 3: our beef, you can you know why. You know at Costco,

1160
00:57:21,560 --> 00:57:23,960
Speaker 3: the healthiest thing meat you can buy Costco, it's from

1161
00:57:24,040 --> 00:57:26,480
Speaker 3: New Zealand. You know why because in New Zealand they

1162
00:57:26,560 --> 00:57:28,480
Speaker 3: it all has to be grassped and it all has

1163
00:57:28,520 --> 00:57:31,240
Speaker 3: to be antibiotic free. You could do that too if

1164
00:57:31,240 --> 00:57:34,320
Speaker 3: we want to. Now that would require a significant change

1165
00:57:34,320 --> 00:57:36,560
Speaker 3: in our food supply and all that. But that's where

1166
00:57:36,560 --> 00:57:39,240
Speaker 3: the stupidity of it is just maddening, because you know,

1167
00:57:39,240 --> 00:57:40,840
Speaker 3: we're at the same time that we want to make

1168
00:57:40,880 --> 00:57:43,720
Speaker 3: America healthy a grand what we want Australians to be

1169
00:57:43,760 --> 00:57:44,840
Speaker 3: as fat as No, we.

1170
00:57:44,800 --> 00:57:47,000
Speaker 1: Don't want that. It's like you don't want to export

1171
00:57:47,040 --> 00:57:49,240
Speaker 1: this crap to all across the world.

1172
00:57:49,360 --> 00:57:52,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, a lot of respects already.

1173
00:57:51,880 --> 00:57:52,360
Speaker 1: Yes we have.

1174
00:57:52,720 --> 00:57:55,360
Speaker 3: You're right, But my point is that, if anything, it's

1175
00:57:55,400 --> 00:57:58,560
Speaker 3: a bad cultural ill and perhaps the worst thing that

1176
00:57:58,600 --> 00:58:01,560
Speaker 3: we have exported to the rest of the world. So anyway,

1177
00:58:01,720 --> 00:58:04,000
Speaker 3: just coming back to it, this is ten times worse

1178
00:58:04,040 --> 00:58:07,040
Speaker 3: than any Actually, you cannot even honestly say that this

1179
00:58:07,200 --> 00:58:09,480
Speaker 3: is what people understood the tariff plan was, because it's

1180
00:58:09,520 --> 00:58:11,040
Speaker 3: not well, it genuinely is not.

1181
00:58:11,240 --> 00:58:13,520
Speaker 2: It does irritate me that some news outlets are still

1182
00:58:13,600 --> 00:58:15,440
Speaker 2: referring to it even as reciprocal terrors.

1183
00:58:15,440 --> 00:58:17,000
Speaker 4: It's not still Yeah, they're.

1184
00:58:16,840 --> 00:58:19,840
Speaker 2: Still taking up the Trump framing and language when it's

1185
00:58:19,880 --> 00:58:23,120
Speaker 2: like see for yourself, like use your own brain to

1186
00:58:23,240 --> 00:58:26,280
Speaker 2: characterize what's going on here, because you know, I have

1187
00:58:26,360 --> 00:58:28,760
Speaker 2: problems even with the reciprocal terrorist doesn't make sense for

1188
00:58:28,760 --> 00:58:30,680
Speaker 2: a variety room. It's not even worth getting into because

1189
00:58:30,680 --> 00:58:33,200
Speaker 2: that's not what we're doing here. That is not what

1190
00:58:33,240 --> 00:58:38,120
Speaker 2: we're doing here. This is I truly characterize this as

1191
00:58:38,160 --> 00:58:41,160
Speaker 2: economic terrorism. I don't think there is another accurate way

1192
00:58:41,320 --> 00:58:45,440
Speaker 2: to characterize this. He is blowing up all of our lives,

1193
00:58:45,640 --> 00:58:48,960
Speaker 2: the global economic system. And again now I'm sounding like

1194
00:58:48,960 --> 00:58:51,840
Speaker 2: Milton Friedman two, which is not my ideological but I

1195
00:58:51,880 --> 00:58:55,480
Speaker 2: will take the most neolib of neolib.

1196
00:58:55,080 --> 00:58:56,040
Speaker 4: Policies over this.

1197
00:58:56,160 --> 00:58:58,800
Speaker 2: I honestly will, because this is going to be a

1198
00:58:59,280 --> 00:59:04,040
Speaker 2: massive regressive tax on working class people. It is going

1199
00:59:04,120 --> 00:59:06,760
Speaker 2: to cause they've been running around, oh, short term pain

1200
00:59:06,800 --> 00:59:09,240
Speaker 2: for long term gain. There will be no long term gain.

1201
00:59:09,560 --> 00:59:14,960
Speaker 4: This is just about pain for what for what? There

1202
00:59:15,040 --> 00:59:18,680
Speaker 4: is no rainbow on the other side of this. It's

1203
00:59:19,080 --> 00:59:19,560
Speaker 4: just pain.

1204
00:59:20,000 --> 00:59:23,560
Speaker 2: It's just threatening a recession, and it's you know, it's

1205
00:59:23,600 --> 00:59:25,600
Speaker 2: hard for me not to see it's hard for me

1206
00:59:25,880 --> 00:59:28,200
Speaker 2: not to see this as anything other than a complete

1207
00:59:28,240 --> 00:59:33,520
Speaker 2: and utter disaster, absolutely of his own making. And last thing,

1208
00:59:33,560 --> 00:59:36,360
Speaker 2: I'll say, just about where we were economically going into this,

1209
00:59:36,880 --> 00:59:42,320
Speaker 2: Like it's not like the American working class person, the

1210
00:59:42,360 --> 00:59:46,200
Speaker 2: American consumer was on solid ground going into this. It's

1211
00:59:46,240 --> 00:59:48,800
Speaker 2: not like we have a buffer to be able to

1212
00:59:48,920 --> 00:59:52,720
Speaker 2: absorb these massive shocks. And so these politicians who are

1213
00:59:52,760 --> 00:59:56,160
Speaker 2: running around like, oh, you know, one of them was saying, oh,

1214
00:59:56,200 --> 00:59:58,320
Speaker 2: you know how it is when you renovate your home.

1215
00:59:58,800 --> 01:00:01,680
Speaker 2: It's a little incon venient having the painters there and

1216
01:00:01,720 --> 01:00:03,760
Speaker 2: doing the dry well. But the end, it's the end

1217
01:00:03,840 --> 01:00:06,280
Speaker 2: of the day. It's better people do not have that

1218
01:00:06,360 --> 01:00:12,240
Speaker 2: kind of luxury. You already had car loan delinquencies going up,

1219
01:00:12,320 --> 01:00:16,520
Speaker 2: spiking massively. You already had people were struggling to make rent,

1220
01:00:16,640 --> 01:00:18,720
Speaker 2: let alone be able to afford that. I'm the housing

1221
01:00:18,760 --> 01:00:22,880
Speaker 2: markets complete trash right now. You already had people who

1222
01:00:22,960 --> 01:00:26,240
Speaker 2: are saying, like, the prices are too high, I cannot

1223
01:00:26,280 --> 01:00:29,160
Speaker 2: afford to make ends meet at the end of the month.

1224
01:00:29,440 --> 01:00:31,640
Speaker 4: That is what Trump ran on the number.

1225
01:00:31,400 --> 01:00:33,680
Speaker 2: One reason people said they voted for him was inflation,

1226
01:00:34,400 --> 01:00:36,760
Speaker 2: and now he's on here saying, you know, oh, just

1227
01:00:36,840 --> 01:00:37,439
Speaker 2: take the pain.

1228
01:00:37,840 --> 01:00:40,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, prices are going to go up, do you. I couldn't.

1229
01:00:40,200 --> 01:00:43,960
Speaker 2: I couldn't care less if prices go up. Just I

1230
01:00:43,960 --> 01:00:45,560
Speaker 2: don't know what you even say at this point