WEBVTT - Beating the Book: 2022 Week 7 NFL MegaPod Betting Preview 0:00:00.120 --> 0:00:02.360 This episode has brought to you by Yes on Prop 0:00:03.240 --> 0:00:06.720 and DraftKings. Half the country already allows online sports betting 0:00:06.720 --> 0:00:09.160 for adults twenty one and older. It's time to let 0:00:09.200 --> 0:00:12.479 California fans in on the action. There's no good reason. 0:00:12.480 --> 0:00:15.200 You're friends in New York, Chicago, Phoenix, Portland, and Boston 0:00:15.280 --> 0:00:18.560 can bet online while Californians are still forced to deal 0:00:18.600 --> 0:00:23.400 with shady bookies. Prove insures California finally catches up. So 0:00:23.520 --> 0:00:34.600 vote yes on Prop. Check it on Man, No Down. 0:00:34.640 --> 0:00:41.200 Then Thursday morning, October is the Beating the Book Podcast 0:00:41.440 --> 0:00:45.319 Megapod week number seven in the National Football League, It's 0:00:45.360 --> 0:00:48.120 Gil Alexander H Glad you could join us for this. 0:00:48.240 --> 0:00:50.440 It has been a fine year with the UH with 0:00:50.560 --> 0:00:54.360 the best bets, not so much on the teasers that continued. UH. 0:00:54.360 --> 0:00:57.480 Staples of the show Jeff Pearls, who is not visually 0:00:57.520 --> 0:00:59.520 accessible to us today because he's feeling under the weather. 0:00:59.560 --> 0:01:02.400 He is kind enough to join us even feeling that 0:01:02.440 --> 0:01:03.880 way under the weather. And then Todd wish and have 0:01:04.000 --> 0:01:06.480 court stenographer on the show from his mom's cork attic 0:01:06.480 --> 0:01:08.960 in Pittsburgh. P A. You guys doing okay? Jeff, You're 0:01:08.959 --> 0:01:13.040 feeling better, Gil, I I can, I can fight through 0:01:13.040 --> 0:01:15.640 an hour to be with you, Todd, and there and no, no, 0:01:15.640 --> 0:01:18.840 no problem with that, and and uh and uh. It's 0:01:18.840 --> 0:01:21.440 a rare opportunity where the New York Jets are actually 0:01:21.480 --> 0:01:23.800 sitting in over five hundred six weeks in How could 0:01:23.840 --> 0:01:25.880 I how could I miss a miss a megupon with 0:01:26.000 --> 0:01:28.520 that happening? Right? They got players now, man, it's amazing 0:01:28.520 --> 0:01:30.800 what you could do with players. And uh, he referred 0:01:30.800 --> 0:01:33.399 to Aaron. Aaron shot the ladies and gentlemen kind enough 0:01:33.400 --> 0:01:35.319 to be our rotating guest. He's been with us before 0:01:35.360 --> 0:01:38.720 in previous years. He is the founder of Football Outsiders 0:01:40.000 --> 0:01:43.039 Analytics Juggernaut in both pro football and in college football 0:01:43.040 --> 0:01:46.319 as well these days. Thanks for being here, Aaron, appreciate it, man, Hey, 0:01:46.319 --> 0:01:48.480 thanks for having me. I wish I had thought things 0:01:48.520 --> 0:01:50.680 through a little bit before I agreed to do this 0:01:50.760 --> 0:01:55.360 week because this week's games are lousy. Yes, but there's 0:01:55.360 --> 0:01:57.680 still I mean, there's still plenty of angles on them, 0:01:57.720 --> 0:01:59.720 so there's still plenty to talk about with them. But 0:02:00.480 --> 0:02:03.120 I did realize I do the week when like two 0:02:03.200 --> 0:02:05.440 of the best teams in the league are not playing. 0:02:05.680 --> 0:02:07.840 That's right, we did we I do guessing lines on 0:02:07.880 --> 0:02:10.359 Monday with Chris Andrews at every game that came over, like, oh, 0:02:10.440 --> 0:02:15.200 this is terrible, right, Although I guess we'll get to 0:02:15.200 --> 0:02:17.320 Thursday I Football here, but tarly, I guess Thursday Night 0:02:17.320 --> 0:02:20.840 Football compared to the last two Thursdays might be considered 0:02:20.840 --> 0:02:23.040 a real banger by comparison. But I don't know if 0:02:23.040 --> 0:02:25.120 we can predict these teams. That I have to say 0:02:25.200 --> 0:02:26.720 to the Cardinals before we get to that, Todd, what 0:02:26.760 --> 0:02:30.640 are the records thus far this year? The records are 0:02:31.160 --> 0:02:34.320 gilly with another solid two and one to move to 0:02:34.560 --> 0:02:41.240 thirteen and five. Man, Can I just say this though? 0:02:41.240 --> 0:02:43.000 Can I just say this before you do? All the 0:02:43.040 --> 0:02:45.880 bounces are going my way Like all those other years 0:02:45.880 --> 0:02:48.080 with the Plinko bounces didn't go my way. I wasn't 0:02:48.160 --> 0:02:50.839 done then. I'm not smart. Now, That's what I would 0:02:50.880 --> 0:02:55.200 say to that, just to keep it real. That's your 0:02:55.240 --> 0:02:58.720 p that's your p S A thank you approach. Trip. 0:03:00.160 --> 0:03:03.079 Jeffrey took a one in two this past week to 0:03:03.200 --> 0:03:06.600 follow a ten and eight after a stellar six and 0:03:06.680 --> 0:03:10.919 three starts. So I am gaining on Jeffrey. Uh and 0:03:10.960 --> 0:03:14.880 I had a nice two and one. You go uh 0:03:15.040 --> 0:03:18.120 to move me to nine and nine on the teaser world, 0:03:18.160 --> 0:03:21.440 We're really struggling. Two and four for you, Jeffrey, one 0:03:21.480 --> 0:03:24.320 in five. I haven't won a teaser this year. Unbelievable. 0:03:24.320 --> 0:03:26.519 The guest is three and three on the teasers and 0:03:26.680 --> 0:03:29.200 nine and nine on the record. Wait, who's who's two 0:03:29.240 --> 0:03:31.840 and four all the teasers? May or Jeff You are 0:03:31.840 --> 0:03:33.480 two and four and Jeff is one in five and 0:03:33.480 --> 0:03:36.840 you're oh in six on teasers? Has not want a teaser? Dude, 0:03:36.840 --> 0:03:38.360 at this point you should try to go oh and 0:03:38.440 --> 0:03:42.160 eighteen on these. You should tell But I've been the 0:03:42.240 --> 0:03:44.240 last two years. I couldn't lose a teaser all of 0:03:44.240 --> 0:03:46.280 a sudden, I can't win a teasers and just keep 0:03:46.280 --> 0:03:49.480 doing what you're doing. You're going. That has been the 0:03:49.520 --> 0:03:51.040 thing though, That's been the weird thing about this year, 0:03:51.120 --> 0:03:53.560 right we're doing I mean collectively, that's not bad on 0:03:53.640 --> 0:03:55.119 Best Bets at all. By the way, what's the guest 0:03:55.200 --> 0:03:57.680 chair on Best Bets and teaser nine and nine and 0:03:57.760 --> 0:04:00.400 three and three? Oh wow? Okay, so the bits of 0:04:00.400 --> 0:04:03.280 the guest Jared's taking a bit of a hit backwards, 0:04:03.480 --> 0:04:06.720 all right, Aaron, you're starting from five. Both of these alright. 0:04:06.800 --> 0:04:09.680 Uh yeah, so it's a good good position to be in, 0:04:10.040 --> 0:04:14.000 not not too much pressure. Um. Let us start then with, oh, 0:04:14.040 --> 0:04:15.720 we we like to do the dumbbell of the week. 0:04:15.880 --> 0:04:21.880 Dumbbell of the week, Jason Jason Kin, that's his week, 0:04:22.000 --> 0:04:24.000 He's made his week. He's so happy with that. It's 0:04:24.040 --> 0:04:26.440 like looney Tunes thing. Alright, So we do this every 0:04:26.480 --> 0:04:28.800 week and we're like, Okay, who's the dumbest coach? What 0:04:29.080 --> 0:04:32.240 was the dumbest thing I coach did this week? Um? 0:04:32.279 --> 0:04:34.440 And we were all kind of and this analytics sort 0:04:34.440 --> 0:04:36.320 of buck this, right, some of the bots with Brandon 0:04:36.360 --> 0:04:39.839 Staley going forward on fourth and one against Cleveland, we 0:04:39.880 --> 0:04:41.359 thought it was the dumbell of the week, but some 0:04:41.400 --> 0:04:43.040 of the analytics bots said no, it was actually the 0:04:43.160 --> 0:04:44.919 right thing to do. I'm not really sure I was 0:04:45.000 --> 0:04:47.000 with that. What was it this week? Who was who 0:04:47.040 --> 0:04:48.640 was the dumbbell of the week? Aaron, I'm not sure. 0:04:48.680 --> 0:04:50.920 We didn't even prep you for this, But was there 0:04:50.960 --> 0:04:54.960 a coaching in game move that you thought was particularly 0:04:55.040 --> 0:05:00.680 ridiculous this past week? Yeah? I'm not remembering very well. Yeah, 0:05:00.760 --> 0:05:04.520 me neither this week's moves. I have a terrible memory 0:05:04.560 --> 0:05:06.440 for this stuff like if you asked me on Monday, 0:05:06.480 --> 0:05:08.839 I can probably give five of them, and by Thursday 0:05:08.880 --> 0:05:11.040 I've completely forgotten. Yeah, I know, this is the one 0:05:11.040 --> 0:05:13.000 thing I forgot to mention to you because we should 0:05:13.000 --> 0:05:14.839 throw it in. Todd, what was yours? Do you remember? 0:05:15.120 --> 0:05:19.320 You know, I didn't notice anything this week that was 0:05:19.560 --> 0:05:24.960 tremendously egregious. Um, that really bothered me a lot. So 0:05:25.000 --> 0:05:26.960 I didn't have one this week. Yeah, there was a 0:05:27.000 --> 0:05:30.960 few little things. I'm sure Jeff remembers. Well what he got, Jeff, Yeah, well, 0:05:31.040 --> 0:05:33.520 you know what, it wasn't the only The worst thing 0:05:33.560 --> 0:05:36.800 this week was the McCarthy idiotic thing with the fourth 0:05:36.800 --> 0:05:38.920 and one where he didn't challenge and then they threw 0:05:38.920 --> 0:05:43.120 an incomplete bath where they why where they clearly had 0:05:43.160 --> 0:05:45.840 the first down. It's probably the worst thing in the week. 0:05:45.880 --> 0:05:50.240 This was really not a horrible all things considered. I 0:05:50.279 --> 0:05:52.480 was just gonna give up. I was just gonna give 0:05:52.520 --> 0:05:56.560 my dumbbell the Kingsberry because you score zero offensive touchdowns 0:05:56.560 --> 0:06:01.080 against that defense. What the hell are you doing? I mean, 0:06:01.120 --> 0:06:03.240 that's that's really that's really the way I was going 0:06:03.279 --> 0:06:05.200 to play it this week. Gil, What do you want 0:06:05.200 --> 0:06:07.280 to say, Aaron I was gonna say. The thing about 0:06:07.360 --> 0:06:10.600 McCarthy is, it's not really a failure by McCarthy as 0:06:10.640 --> 0:06:13.400 much as it is a failure by whoever is up 0:06:13.400 --> 0:06:17.400 in the box who watches the TV angles and says 0:06:17.480 --> 0:06:22.480 to McCarthy, you should challenge this. That person screwed up. Yeah, 0:06:22.520 --> 0:06:24.920 and that led to Philadelphia's first touchdown in that game, 0:06:24.960 --> 0:06:28.280 put him up seven to nothing. Um, if I'm if 0:06:28.279 --> 0:06:30.520 I'm not mistaken, wasn't there something in the Chargers game 0:06:30.520 --> 0:06:32.440 in the same way that happened there? I'm not sure. 0:06:32.480 --> 0:06:34.919 I can't remember now it's all but basically because we 0:06:34.960 --> 0:06:38.000 can't remember, there wasn't anything that really leapt off the page. 0:06:38.040 --> 0:06:40.279 But there was a few of those. Uh this week. 0:06:40.560 --> 0:06:42.840 So Thursday Night Football, I mentioned that it was before 0:06:42.880 --> 0:06:44.520 we get before we get to Thursday, and I have 0:06:44.560 --> 0:06:46.960 a good in game one that I wanted to quickly 0:06:46.960 --> 0:06:52.120 talk about the This is something that I don't do often, 0:06:52.120 --> 0:06:53.640 but once in a while, when I do it and 0:06:53.720 --> 0:06:57.200 it works out, it feels really good. Um. I actually 0:06:57.640 --> 0:07:00.240 had took over forty five and a half on the 0:07:00.400 --> 0:07:03.400 end game in the Denver game at ten nothing Monday 0:07:03.480 --> 0:07:06.520 Night Football, Denver went up ten nothing. I took over 0:07:06.640 --> 0:07:08.640 forty five and a half, thinking Okay, now the Chargers 0:07:08.680 --> 0:07:11.680 are gonna have to come back, and so I'll take 0:07:11.720 --> 0:07:14.760 the over here. The Chargers then went on an eighteen 0:07:14.920 --> 0:07:19.120 play drive to finally get a touchdown, and then at 0:07:19.160 --> 0:07:22.880 halftime the score was thirteen to ten. At that point, 0:07:23.480 --> 0:07:26.200 I did not like my bet. I didn't like the 0:07:26.240 --> 0:07:28.840 fact that the Chargers realized that they couldn't throw the 0:07:28.880 --> 0:07:31.200 ball down the field because the Denver pass rush was 0:07:31.240 --> 0:07:34.360 way too difficult and they were just dinking and dunking, 0:07:34.400 --> 0:07:36.040 and I felt if they were going to score, they 0:07:36.040 --> 0:07:37.800 weren't going to score a lot, especially when they had 0:07:37.800 --> 0:07:40.040 only averaged three point seven yards of play in the 0:07:40.080 --> 0:07:44.840 first half. Uh Conversely, Denver had average eight point one 0:07:44.920 --> 0:07:47.160 yard to play, but most of it was on two big, 0:07:48.200 --> 0:07:50.880 big plays that they got kind of lucky on. And 0:07:50.960 --> 0:07:53.760 so to me, I was no longer happy with my 0:07:53.840 --> 0:07:56.200 forty five and a half over, and I had an 0:07:56.240 --> 0:07:59.080 opportunity now at halftime with the score thirteen ten, to 0:07:59.120 --> 0:08:01.480 go under forty six and a half. So I had 0:08:01.520 --> 0:08:04.679 an opportunity for a middle and I like the under. 0:08:04.800 --> 0:08:07.640 So what I ended up doing is betting double back 0:08:07.720 --> 0:08:10.520 the other way. So at that point, now I had 0:08:10.520 --> 0:08:12.840 a position on the under forty six and a half, 0:08:12.920 --> 0:08:15.760 and of course, if the first part of the bet, 0:08:15.800 --> 0:08:18.960 you know, landed forty six, I could get a miracle middle. Anyways, 0:08:19.040 --> 0:08:21.440 it ended up being the right thing because the second 0:08:21.440 --> 0:08:23.960 half did play out kind of in that manner, a 0:08:24.000 --> 0:08:27.560 low scoring second half. And and I especially like to, 0:08:28.280 --> 0:08:30.520 you know, teams that are under teams that play over 0:08:30.560 --> 0:08:33.200 in the first half or in vice versa, I like 0:08:33.320 --> 0:08:35.440 to kind of you know, that's another factor because I 0:08:35.440 --> 0:08:38.640 feel Denver's a real under team. But anyways, um, you know, 0:08:38.760 --> 0:08:42.400 I don't do this often enough, but in this particular case, 0:08:42.440 --> 0:08:44.400 I did do it, and and it did work out 0:08:44.520 --> 0:08:46.559 due to the fact that you know, you can change 0:08:46.559 --> 0:08:49.720 your opinion in the middle of your bet to two things. 0:08:49.760 --> 0:08:52.480 Weren't one going back to the UH the Mike McCarthy 0:08:52.520 --> 0:08:55.679 not challenging, Just to clarify, it wasn't. It wasn't the 0:08:55.720 --> 0:08:58.120 decision the lack of a challenge that made it seven nothing. 0:08:58.120 --> 0:08:59.840 It was a fourteen and nothing game at the time. 0:09:00.520 --> 0:09:03.760 UH it was fourth and inches from UH their own 0:09:03.800 --> 0:09:06.880 thirty four after ceedee Lamb was questionably ruled short of 0:09:06.920 --> 0:09:11.240 the sticks on third down, Dallas didn't challenge that down 0:09:11.240 --> 0:09:13.320 fourteen to nothing, nine thirty left in the second quarter. 0:09:13.640 --> 0:09:16.679 Then the Russian complete pass intended for Payton hendershot on 0:09:16.800 --> 0:09:19.360 fourth down. That led to a Jake Elliott fifty one 0:09:19.400 --> 0:09:21.199 yard field weld that made it seventeen and nothing. That's 0:09:21.200 --> 0:09:24.040 what we're referring to their um. The other the other 0:09:24.080 --> 0:09:26.560 thing about end game I don't think we make this 0:09:26.640 --> 0:09:30.160 end game point enough. Sometimes the best way to end 0:09:30.200 --> 0:09:32.360 game bed is when you have, pardon me, when you 0:09:32.440 --> 0:09:35.280 have a shorter runway. So that's San Diego. Excuse San Diego. 0:09:35.360 --> 0:09:40.280 The Chargers game against the Broncos. It was the score 0:09:40.440 --> 0:09:43.040 was nine excuse me. The score was sixteen to thirteen 0:09:43.080 --> 0:09:44.839 at the time, so twenty nine points were on the board. 0:09:44.840 --> 0:09:46.600 There was eight fifty one left in the game, eight 0:09:46.600 --> 0:09:49.160 twenty one maybe left in the game, and at that 0:09:49.200 --> 0:09:51.680 point the total was set at thirty seven and a half. 0:09:52.000 --> 0:09:53.720 When you have a twenty one left in the game 0:09:55.080 --> 0:09:57.520 at that point, you needed nine points to get beaten 0:09:57.520 --> 0:10:01.400 on and over, so two scores. The shorter runway is 0:10:01.440 --> 0:10:03.520 always a great time to make an end game bet. 0:10:03.559 --> 0:10:05.280 It seems like an obvious thing. Too many betters. But 0:10:05.280 --> 0:10:08.040 there's gonna be some newer betters, newish newish betters who 0:10:08.040 --> 0:10:10.520 are listening to this for the first time. Oftentimes within 0:10:10.600 --> 0:10:13.560 game bets. As long as your runway is shorter, the 0:10:13.640 --> 0:10:16.760 volatility lessons and so your ability your rate of succeeding 0:10:16.760 --> 0:10:19.719 in game bets ought to there for increase. So at 0:10:19.720 --> 0:10:22.400 twenty nine points I went under because with that short 0:10:22.400 --> 0:10:24.480 of a runway, you can start to really wrap your 0:10:24.520 --> 0:10:27.880 brain around well, you know, if it's fourth and long, 0:10:28.360 --> 0:10:31.640 they have a hurt Kicker and Dustin Hopkins maybe you know, 0:10:31.720 --> 0:10:33.640 maybe they use him them. If it's fourth in short, 0:10:33.640 --> 0:10:36.480 they're not going to use Dustin Hopkins. And if if 0:10:36.520 --> 0:10:39.120 Los Angeles messes up and doesn't get the fourth down, 0:10:39.440 --> 0:10:41.959 that will be zero added to the point total. Denver 0:10:42.040 --> 0:10:44.360 won't be incentivized to matriculate the ball down in the 0:10:44.360 --> 0:10:46.800 field at any rapid rate, or if or if Los 0:10:46.800 --> 0:10:49.720 Angeles does get you know, the touchdown eventually, I don't 0:10:49.720 --> 0:10:51.960 have any confidence in Denver being able to score a 0:10:51.960 --> 0:10:53.640 touchow because they would have needed to touch down at 0:10:53.640 --> 0:10:58.080 that point to ruin your bet um with only two yeah, 0:10:58.160 --> 0:11:01.080 with only two possessions left, that's I'm saying for vetters, yes, 0:11:01.160 --> 0:11:03.559 that worked out for me. Sometimes it doesn't. But when 0:11:03.600 --> 0:11:07.319 you have a shorter runway and you can really, really 0:11:07.360 --> 0:11:09.719 determined this team is going to have this many possessions left, 0:11:09.720 --> 0:11:11.559 and this many possessions left, it's gonna be great. And yes, 0:11:11.600 --> 0:11:13.560 I know it went into overtime, but even if it 0:11:13.559 --> 0:11:15.839 goes into overtime, if the team that gets the ball 0:11:15.840 --> 0:11:18.920 first doesn't score that touchdown, chances are you're only gonna 0:11:18.920 --> 0:11:20.640 have field goals from that point forward. And that's what 0:11:20.720 --> 0:11:22.800 happened anyway. Those are good. Those are good I think 0:11:22.840 --> 0:11:25.800 in game points to make. Let's talk about Thursday night football. 0:11:26.360 --> 0:11:28.200 It is a it's not a it's not a terrible 0:11:28.240 --> 0:11:29.959 matchup like last week on paper, like the Bears and 0:11:30.000 --> 0:11:34.000 the Commanders, but it is two teams that, my goodness, 0:11:34.000 --> 0:11:36.079 the Saints and the Cardinals, even at their best, what 0:11:36.080 --> 0:11:37.880 what do you make of them? And tonight we have 0:11:37.920 --> 0:11:40.520 a lot of injuries for the Saints. Aaron Jarvis Landry 0:11:40.600 --> 0:11:43.520 is out, Michael Thomas is out, Andrew's Pete Adam Troutman, 0:11:43.600 --> 0:11:47.160 and maybe most significantly, Marshawn Lattimore out for the Saints. 0:11:47.160 --> 0:11:49.120 And the reason that might be most significant because DeAndre 0:11:49.200 --> 0:11:52.400 Hopkins is back from a six game p D suspension 0:11:52.440 --> 0:11:55.040 for the Cardinals, James Conners the game time decision, Robby 0:11:55.080 --> 0:11:58.040 Anderson newly acquired from the Panthers. He'll be very limited 0:11:58.040 --> 0:12:00.800 no matter what. But all of those things in the mix, 0:12:00.920 --> 0:12:02.839 what do you make of this? Cardinals favored by two 0:12:02.840 --> 0:12:05.920 and a half? You play anything here? The one thing 0:12:06.000 --> 0:12:09.480 I would say is that most of those receivers have 0:12:09.600 --> 0:12:13.160 generally been out for the Saints for a few weeks now, 0:12:14.080 --> 0:12:16.760 so I think it's not Uh, it's not like you 0:12:16.800 --> 0:12:19.840 need to drop your opinion of the Saints too much 0:12:19.920 --> 0:12:22.240 from what you've already seen from them the last couple 0:12:22.280 --> 0:12:25.520 of weeks, because we've already seen a couple of weeks 0:12:25.559 --> 0:12:29.400 of them without these receivers. Latimore being out is new, 0:12:29.480 --> 0:12:33.560 I think. Um, I'm kind of staying away from this. 0:12:33.880 --> 0:12:37.240 Are our numbers? Like like the Saints. The problem is 0:12:37.280 --> 0:12:40.600 it's it's difficult to know how much to adjust for injuries, 0:12:41.360 --> 0:12:45.160 especially non quarterback injuries. Right, Sometimes they don't really mean anything, 0:12:45.240 --> 0:12:50.880 and sometimes they're really important. Um and uh. And I 0:12:50.880 --> 0:12:53.080 would also like the science Saints better if the line 0:12:53.160 --> 0:12:57.200 was three rather than two and a half. So, um, 0:12:57.240 --> 0:13:00.920 both of these teams have been bad this year. The 0:13:00.960 --> 0:13:03.720 difference is, you know, at this point in the season, 0:13:03.880 --> 0:13:08.480 we're still incorporating in our metrics preseason projections at a 0:13:08.559 --> 0:13:11.880 pretty good amount, because you know, our research has shown 0:13:11.920 --> 0:13:14.760 that even six and seven weeks into the season, your 0:13:14.760 --> 0:13:18.360 preseason projections are worth about as much as the knowledge 0:13:18.400 --> 0:13:20.640 that you have from the six weeks that have been played. 0:13:21.280 --> 0:13:23.480 And in the preseason, we thought the Saints were a 0:13:23.559 --> 0:13:26.760 much better defense than Arizona. So we still kind of 0:13:26.760 --> 0:13:29.080 think the Saints are a better defense than Arizona. So 0:13:29.160 --> 0:13:31.080 that's why we like the Saints. But as far as 0:13:31.120 --> 0:13:34.680 how they've actually played this year, I think we have 0:13:34.760 --> 0:13:37.840 the Saints like twenty six and the Cardinals like they've 0:13:37.840 --> 0:13:40.280 both been on both sides of the ball. By the way, 0:13:40.320 --> 0:13:41.720 you had a tweet I should point this out. You 0:13:41.720 --> 0:13:44.040 had a tweet this week, um, where you were looking 0:13:44.080 --> 0:13:45.920 at your d v O a top ten d v 0:13:46.000 --> 0:13:50.280 O eight Football Outsiders probably most famous stat, proprietary stat, 0:13:50.720 --> 0:13:53.320 and how many teams in the in the top ten loss? 0:13:53.320 --> 0:13:56.400 As it turned out in the end, I think seven 0:13:56.640 --> 0:13:59.280 out of the top ten teams from last week lost, 0:13:59.440 --> 0:14:01.000 And then I'm not pointed that out to knock d 0:14:01.080 --> 0:14:02.559 v o A and anyway, I'm just pointing that out 0:14:02.559 --> 0:14:06.199 to it was that kind of weak. Yeah, yeah, Buccaneers 0:14:06.280 --> 0:14:10.400 losing and uh San Francisco losing and of course a 0:14:10.440 --> 0:14:12.920 couple of them lost to each other, right, Dallas lost 0:14:13.000 --> 0:14:16.200 to Philly in Kansas City lost to Buffalo. Do we 0:14:16.400 --> 0:14:18.920 do you feel at all? I feel incoming. I feel 0:14:18.920 --> 0:14:20.600 it's in coming upon me to ask you this question. 0:14:20.720 --> 0:14:22.600 And Jeff, Jeff Parls and I were talking about this 0:14:22.880 --> 0:14:27.240 earlier in the week that when when an NFL season 0:14:27.320 --> 0:14:30.080 is like this, like Pete Rosel's dream of parody coming 0:14:30.080 --> 0:14:32.400 alive in a way that I don't want to be 0:14:32.440 --> 0:14:34.320 person at the moment, but I don't quite remember it 0:14:34.360 --> 0:14:36.720 being this way. Survivor is a great sort of reflection 0:14:36.760 --> 0:14:40.680 of that. You know, sixty plus entries and Circus Survivor 0:14:40.920 --> 0:14:43.320 after six weeks, there's less than four hundred left. Like, 0:14:43.360 --> 0:14:45.760 I mean, you can't even pick a game, just on 0:14:45.800 --> 0:14:49.560 a team to win and keep it going, you know, uh, 0:14:50.080 --> 0:14:52.600 with any sort of success percentage, why six less than 0:14:52.640 --> 0:14:54.920 seven percent of survivor entries remain in that less than 0:14:54.960 --> 0:14:58.800 seven percent. There's other survivor pools where it's like three um, 0:14:58.840 --> 0:15:01.360 and so I wonder, I wonder from an your perspective, 0:15:01.360 --> 0:15:04.520 from an analytics perspective, do you ever have the thought 0:15:04.600 --> 0:15:08.000 in your head of like, wow, when it's this Michugna, 0:15:09.360 --> 0:15:11.960 do I feel like I'm spinning my wheels with the analytics, 0:15:11.960 --> 0:15:16.280 like it's so difficult? Do you ever have that thought? No? 0:15:16.440 --> 0:15:18.880 I mean I think there are still I think there 0:15:18.880 --> 0:15:22.359 are still advantages to find, and there are still differences 0:15:22.440 --> 0:15:25.200 between teams. You just have to accept that they're going 0:15:25.240 --> 0:15:28.120 to be smaller than usual. Like I'll give you another stat. 0:15:28.920 --> 0:15:33.120 The standard deviation of d v o A is the 0:15:33.160 --> 0:15:37.040 lowest ever after six weeks. Right, so if you look 0:15:37.080 --> 0:15:39.920 at our stat for every team after six weeks going 0:15:39.920 --> 0:15:42.880 back all the way to this is the year with 0:15:42.960 --> 0:15:46.360 the least amount of standard deviation. Like it's just the 0:15:46.440 --> 0:15:49.320 teams are just pooled together. But there are still some 0:15:49.440 --> 0:15:52.080 that are better and some that are worse. And and 0:15:52.120 --> 0:15:55.600 you've got advantages because we know which teams are better 0:15:55.720 --> 0:15:59.240 or worse even though they're three and three, or like 0:15:59.320 --> 0:16:02.080 which two and four teams are really two and four, 0:16:02.120 --> 0:16:04.240 and which two and four teams have actually played well? 0:16:04.360 --> 0:16:07.359 And so I think there's advantages to be found in 0:16:07.360 --> 0:16:12.840 in the nooks and crowning crannies. Thomas is English, Muffins, 0:16:13.240 --> 0:16:15.680 Todd and jeff anything anything on tonight's game. I am, 0:16:15.760 --> 0:16:21.000 I am staying away till in the game for me. Yeah, 0:16:21.440 --> 0:16:25.320 go ahead, Jeff No, you know about the same thing 0:16:25.560 --> 0:16:29.080 I leaned Saints. I you know, I'm I am really 0:16:29.120 --> 0:16:31.680 down on this Cardinal the team. I mean, you can't score. 0:16:31.720 --> 0:16:34.440 I know your guys are out, but you can't score 0:16:34.520 --> 0:16:39.880 on Seattle's defense. I mean, everybody was scoring on Seattle's defense. 0:16:40.000 --> 0:16:42.000 Teams were like going up and down the field like 0:16:42.000 --> 0:16:44.760 it was like Candy in New Orleans. Saints had her 0:16:44.760 --> 0:16:47.920 thirty two already scored another touch. It was like unbelievable. 0:16:48.320 --> 0:16:50.880 The Lions scored like a hundred on them, I think, 0:16:51.360 --> 0:16:55.120 and and Arizona couldn't do anything. I mean, that was 0:16:55.200 --> 0:16:58.400 just an embarrassment offensively. And okay, so they're gonna get 0:16:58.400 --> 0:17:01.840 Hopkins back, but all the said, now you know everything's 0:17:01.880 --> 0:17:04.879 gonna be okay. I don't like this Cardinal team at all. 0:17:04.960 --> 0:17:06.840 If I if I I mean, if I had to 0:17:06.880 --> 0:17:08.679 bet a pre game, I would be on the Saints. 0:17:09.600 --> 0:17:15.720 Jeffrey nothing here, nothing here at all, And uh, I 0:17:15.840 --> 0:17:17.959 just want to go back to the conversation that we 0:17:17.960 --> 0:17:20.240 were just having then you and Aaron were just having 0:17:20.280 --> 0:17:23.119 because you and I talked exactly talked about this early 0:17:23.160 --> 0:17:25.800 in the week, where Aaron, this is. This is not 0:17:25.880 --> 0:17:28.639 a shot at at you or or the folks a 0:17:28.680 --> 0:17:31.720 pro football focus in a year that and at last 0:17:31.760 --> 0:17:34.760 point you made is a really good point in a 0:17:34.840 --> 0:17:38.320 year that's just so so even. It really does feel 0:17:38.359 --> 0:17:41.719 like that the models are a little more off than 0:17:41.760 --> 0:17:44.639 they usually would be this year, and that really doesn't 0:17:44.640 --> 0:17:47.120 have to do with the models themselves. It just has 0:17:47.160 --> 0:17:48.960 to do with the point that that that we were 0:17:49.040 --> 0:17:51.879 all just making this league other than at least for 0:17:51.920 --> 0:17:54.840 me and I know Aaron, you and Buffalo in Philadelphia 0:17:54.880 --> 0:17:57.920 at the top, I'll throw Kansas City in there. Those 0:17:57.960 --> 0:18:02.920 three teams aren't a different a different level as everybody 0:18:03.000 --> 0:18:05.119 else is. Once you get the four and Gil, I 0:18:05.160 --> 0:18:07.000 know you, You and Kelly do this on a numbers 0:18:07.000 --> 0:18:08.600 game still at the power rankings, and it kind of 0:18:08.600 --> 0:18:11.000 plays out like this. If you told me one of 0:18:11.119 --> 0:18:13.359 fifteen different teams was the fourth best team in the 0:18:13.440 --> 0:18:19.720 league right now, I would sit there and listen. So Yeah, 0:18:19.920 --> 0:18:22.480 it just feels like there's all right, there's three teams 0:18:22.520 --> 0:18:25.439 at the top, there's probably three teams at the bottom, 0:18:25.480 --> 0:18:28.159 definitely two in Carolina and Houston at least for me, 0:18:28.280 --> 0:18:31.520 that are pretty clearly worse than everybody else. But then 0:18:31.600 --> 0:18:35.640 once you get past those five teams, I'm well, anyone 0:18:35.680 --> 0:18:37.960 can beat anyone, and that's kind of what makes this 0:18:38.080 --> 0:18:40.880 league again hard to bed. And we're doing a pretty 0:18:40.920 --> 0:18:42.880 damn good job as it is, the three of us 0:18:42.880 --> 0:18:46.919 in the guests this year, but it can provide for 0:18:46.960 --> 0:18:49.680 some very weird results, as we have seen plenty so 0:18:49.720 --> 0:18:54.159 far through the first six weeks. Yeah, one of the 0:18:54.160 --> 0:18:56.800 reasons the models seems so off is that so many 0:18:56.840 --> 0:19:00.200 have been one score games, so they've been allow out 0:19:00.200 --> 0:19:05.080 of like the underlying model says Team A outplayed Team 0:19:05.119 --> 0:19:09.280 B pretty substantially, and then Team B wins by two points. Right, 0:19:09.320 --> 0:19:11.399 There's a lot of that going on this year. So 0:19:11.480 --> 0:19:15.280 I I do feel like over the long term we'll 0:19:15.359 --> 0:19:18.360 see the models will be more right than wrong as 0:19:18.359 --> 0:19:21.600 far as you know, for example, that Baltimore is the 0:19:21.600 --> 0:19:24.000 best of the three and three teams, right, Like, I 0:19:24.119 --> 0:19:26.439 know that's what my model has, and that's what I 0:19:26.480 --> 0:19:29.119 think a lot of them have. The Ravens are pretty 0:19:29.119 --> 0:19:31.320 good among the three and three teams, and I think 0:19:31.359 --> 0:19:33.720 we'll see that as time goes on, that that would 0:19:33.720 --> 0:19:38.560 be proven right. But it's hard because this year hass 0:19:38.560 --> 0:19:40.760 are so grouped together and and there have been so 0:19:40.800 --> 0:19:42.960 many close games. Who is your thirty two and your 0:19:42.960 --> 0:19:47.120 thirty one? Who is my thirty two and my thirty one? 0:19:47.200 --> 0:19:50.280 We have Carolina thirty two. I like that, and we 0:19:50.359 --> 0:19:52.960 have Chicago thirty one. I would agree with that. I 0:19:53.040 --> 0:19:54.720 was surprised that Jeff said to Carol and that you 0:19:54.800 --> 0:19:58.160 went Houston thirty one. I agree with that completely. Carolina 0:19:58.240 --> 0:20:01.560 thirty two, Chicago thirty one. Um, you know it's it's 0:20:02.040 --> 0:20:04.240