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Speaker 1: Then Thursday morning, October is the Beating the Book Podcast
Speaker 1: Megapod week number seven in the National Football League, It's
Speaker 1: Gil Alexander H Glad you could join us for this.
Speaker 1: It has been a fine year with the UH with
Speaker 1: the best bets, not so much on the teasers that continued. UH.
Speaker 1: Staples of the show Jeff Pearls, who is not visually
Speaker 1: accessible to us today because he's feeling under the weather.
Speaker 1: He is kind enough to join us even feeling that
Speaker 1: way under the weather. And then Todd wish and have
Speaker 1: court stenographer on the show from his mom's cork attic
Speaker 1: in Pittsburgh. P A. You guys doing okay? Jeff, You're
Speaker 1: feeling better, Gil, I I can, I can fight through
Speaker 1: an hour to be with you, Todd, and there and no, no,
Speaker 1: no problem with that, and and uh and uh. It's
Speaker 1: a rare opportunity where the New York Jets are actually
Speaker 1: sitting in over five hundred six weeks in How could
Speaker 1: I how could I miss a miss a megupon with
Speaker 1: that happening? Right? They got players now, man, it's amazing
Speaker 1: what you could do with players. And uh, he referred
Speaker 1: to Aaron. Aaron shot the ladies and gentlemen kind enough
Speaker 1: to be our rotating guest. He's been with us before
Speaker 1: in previous years. He is the founder of Football Outsiders
Speaker 1: Analytics Juggernaut in both pro football and in college football
Speaker 1: as well these days. Thanks for being here, Aaron, appreciate it, man, Hey,
Speaker 1: thanks for having me. I wish I had thought things
Speaker 1: through a little bit before I agreed to do this
Speaker 1: week because this week's games are lousy. Yes, but there's
Speaker 1: still I mean, there's still plenty of angles on them,
Speaker 1: so there's still plenty to talk about with them. But
Speaker 1: I did realize I do the week when like two
Speaker 1: of the best teams in the league are not playing.
Speaker 1: That's right, we did we I do guessing lines on
Speaker 1: Monday with Chris Andrews at every game that came over, like, oh,
Speaker 1: this is terrible, right, Although I guess we'll get to
Speaker 1: Thursday I Football here, but tarly, I guess Thursday Night
Speaker 1: Football compared to the last two Thursdays might be considered
Speaker 1: a real banger by comparison. But I don't know if
Speaker 1: we can predict these teams. That I have to say
Speaker 1: to the Cardinals before we get to that, Todd, what
Speaker 1: are the records thus far this year? The records are
Speaker 1: gilly with another solid two and one to move to
Speaker 1: thirteen and five. Man, Can I just say this though?
Speaker 1: Can I just say this before you do? All the
Speaker 1: bounces are going my way Like all those other years
Speaker 1: with the Plinko bounces didn't go my way. I wasn't
Speaker 1: done then. I'm not smart. Now, That's what I would
Speaker 1: say to that, just to keep it real. That's your
Speaker 1: p that's your p S A thank you approach. Trip.
Speaker 1: Jeffrey took a one in two this past week to
Speaker 1: follow a ten and eight after a stellar six and
Speaker 1: three starts. So I am gaining on Jeffrey. Uh and
Speaker 1: I had a nice two and one. You go uh
Speaker 1: to move me to nine and nine on the teaser world,
Speaker 1: We're really struggling. Two and four for you, Jeffrey, one
Speaker 1: in five. I haven't won a teaser this year. Unbelievable.
Speaker 1: The guest is three and three on the teasers and
Speaker 1: nine and nine on the record. Wait, who's who's two
Speaker 1: and four all the teasers? May or Jeff You are
Speaker 1: two and four and Jeff is one in five and
Speaker 1: you're oh in six on teasers? Has not want a teaser? Dude,
Speaker 1: at this point you should try to go oh and
Speaker 1: eighteen on these. You should tell But I've been the
Speaker 1: last two years. I couldn't lose a teaser all of
Speaker 1: a sudden, I can't win a teasers and just keep
Speaker 1: doing what you're doing. You're going. That has been the
Speaker 1: thing though, That's been the weird thing about this year,
Speaker 1: right we're doing I mean collectively, that's not bad on
Speaker 1: Best Bets at all. By the way, what's the guest
Speaker 1: chair on Best Bets and teaser nine and nine and
Speaker 1: three and three? Oh wow? Okay, so the bits of
Speaker 1: the guest Jared's taking a bit of a hit backwards,
Speaker 1: all right, Aaron, you're starting from five. Both of these alright.
Speaker 1: Uh yeah, so it's a good good position to be in,
Speaker 1: not not too much pressure. Um. Let us start then with, oh,
Speaker 1: we we like to do the dumbbell of the week.
Speaker 1: Dumbbell of the week, Jason Jason Kin, that's his week,
Speaker 1: He's made his week. He's so happy with that. It's
Speaker 1: like looney Tunes thing. Alright, So we do this every
Speaker 1: week and we're like, Okay, who's the dumbest coach? What
Speaker 1: was the dumbest thing I coach did this week? Um?
Speaker 1: And we were all kind of and this analytics sort
Speaker 1: of buck this, right, some of the bots with Brandon
Speaker 1: Staley going forward on fourth and one against Cleveland, we
Speaker 1: thought it was the dumbell of the week, but some
Speaker 1: of the analytics bots said no, it was actually the
Speaker 1: right thing to do. I'm not really sure I was
Speaker 1: with that. What was it this week? Who was who
Speaker 1: was the dumbbell of the week? Aaron, I'm not sure.
Speaker 1: We didn't even prep you for this, But was there
Speaker 1: a coaching in game move that you thought was particularly
Speaker 1: ridiculous this past week? Yeah? I'm not remembering very well. Yeah,
Speaker 1: me neither this week's moves. I have a terrible memory
Speaker 1: for this stuff like if you asked me on Monday,
Speaker 1: I can probably give five of them, and by Thursday
Speaker 1: I've completely forgotten. Yeah, I know, this is the one
Speaker 1: thing I forgot to mention to you because we should
Speaker 1: throw it in. Todd, what was yours? Do you remember?
Speaker 1: You know, I didn't notice anything this week that was
Speaker 1: tremendously egregious. Um, that really bothered me a lot. So
Speaker 1: I didn't have one this week. Yeah, there was a
Speaker 1: few little things. I'm sure Jeff remembers. Well what he got, Jeff, Yeah, well,
Speaker 1: you know what, it wasn't the only The worst thing
Speaker 1: this week was the McCarthy idiotic thing with the fourth
Speaker 1: and one where he didn't challenge and then they threw
Speaker 1: an incomplete bath where they why where they clearly had
Speaker 1: the first down. It's probably the worst thing in the week.
Speaker 1: This was really not a horrible all things considered. I
Speaker 1: was just gonna give up. I was just gonna give
Speaker 1: my dumbbell the Kingsberry because you score zero offensive touchdowns
Speaker 1: against that defense. What the hell are you doing? I mean,
Speaker 1: that's that's really that's really the way I was going
Speaker 1: to play it this week. Gil, What do you want
Speaker 1: to say, Aaron I was gonna say. The thing about
Speaker 1: McCarthy is, it's not really a failure by McCarthy as
Speaker 1: much as it is a failure by whoever is up
Speaker 1: in the box who watches the TV angles and says
Speaker 1: to McCarthy, you should challenge this. That person screwed up. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and that led to Philadelphia's first touchdown in that game,
Speaker 1: put him up seven to nothing. Um, if I'm if
Speaker 1: I'm not mistaken, wasn't there something in the Chargers game
Speaker 1: in the same way that happened there? I'm not sure.
Speaker 1: I can't remember now it's all but basically because we
Speaker 1: can't remember, there wasn't anything that really leapt off the page.
Speaker 1: But there was a few of those. Uh this week.
Speaker 1: So Thursday Night Football, I mentioned that it was before
Speaker 1: we get before we get to Thursday, and I have
Speaker 1: a good in game one that I wanted to quickly
Speaker 1: talk about the This is something that I don't do often,
Speaker 1: but once in a while, when I do it and
Speaker 1: it works out, it feels really good. Um. I actually
Speaker 1: had took over forty five and a half on the
Speaker 1: end game in the Denver game at ten nothing Monday
Speaker 1: Night Football, Denver went up ten nothing. I took over
Speaker 1: forty five and a half, thinking Okay, now the Chargers
Speaker 1: are gonna have to come back, and so I'll take
Speaker 1: the over here. The Chargers then went on an eighteen
Speaker 1: play drive to finally get a touchdown, and then at
Speaker 1: halftime the score was thirteen to ten. At that point,
Speaker 1: I did not like my bet. I didn't like the
Speaker 1: fact that the Chargers realized that they couldn't throw the
Speaker 1: ball down the field because the Denver pass rush was
Speaker 1: way too difficult and they were just dinking and dunking,
Speaker 1: and I felt if they were going to score, they
Speaker 1: weren't going to score a lot, especially when they had
Speaker 1: only averaged three point seven yards of play in the
Speaker 1: first half. Uh Conversely, Denver had average eight point one
Speaker 1: yard to play, but most of it was on two big,
Speaker 1: big plays that they got kind of lucky on. And
Speaker 1: so to me, I was no longer happy with my
Speaker 1: forty five and a half over, and I had an
Speaker 1: opportunity now at halftime with the score thirteen ten, to
Speaker 1: go under forty six and a half. So I had
Speaker 1: an opportunity for a middle and I like the under.
Speaker 1: So what I ended up doing is betting double back
Speaker 1: the other way. So at that point, now I had
Speaker 1: a position on the under forty six and a half,
Speaker 1: and of course, if the first part of the bet,
Speaker 1: you know, landed forty six, I could get a miracle middle. Anyways,
Speaker 1: it ended up being the right thing because the second
Speaker 1: half did play out kind of in that manner, a
Speaker 1: low scoring second half. And and I especially like to,
Speaker 1: you know, teams that are under teams that play over
Speaker 1: in the first half or in vice versa, I like
Speaker 1: to kind of you know, that's another factor because I
Speaker 1: feel Denver's a real under team. But anyways, um, you know,
Speaker 1: I don't do this often enough, but in this particular case,
Speaker 1: I did do it, and and it did work out
Speaker 1: due to the fact that you know, you can change
Speaker 1: your opinion in the middle of your bet to two things.
Speaker 1: Weren't one going back to the UH the Mike McCarthy
Speaker 1: not challenging, Just to clarify, it wasn't. It wasn't the
Speaker 1: decision the lack of a challenge that made it seven nothing.
Speaker 1: It was a fourteen and nothing game at the time.
Speaker 1: UH it was fourth and inches from UH their own
Speaker 1: thirty four after ceedee Lamb was questionably ruled short of
Speaker 1: the sticks on third down, Dallas didn't challenge that down
Speaker 1: fourteen to nothing, nine thirty left in the second quarter.
Speaker 1: Then the Russian complete pass intended for Payton hendershot on
Speaker 1: fourth down. That led to a Jake Elliott fifty one
Speaker 1: yard field weld that made it seventeen and nothing. That's
Speaker 1: what we're referring to their um. The other the other
Speaker 1: thing about end game I don't think we make this
Speaker 1: end game point enough. Sometimes the best way to end
Speaker 1: game bed is when you have, pardon me, when you
Speaker 1: have a shorter runway. So that's San Diego. Excuse San Diego.
Speaker 1: The Chargers game against the Broncos. It was the score
Speaker 1: was nine excuse me. The score was sixteen to thirteen
Speaker 1: at the time, so twenty nine points were on the board.
Speaker 1: There was eight fifty one left in the game, eight
Speaker 1: twenty one maybe left in the game, and at that
Speaker 1: point the total was set at thirty seven and a half.
Speaker 1: When you have a twenty one left in the game
Speaker 1: at that point, you needed nine points to get beaten
Speaker 1: on and over, so two scores. The shorter runway is
Speaker 1: always a great time to make an end game bet.
Speaker 1: It seems like an obvious thing. Too many betters. But
Speaker 1: there's gonna be some newer betters, newish newish betters who
Speaker 1: are listening to this for the first time. Oftentimes within
Speaker 1: game bets. As long as your runway is shorter, the
Speaker 1: volatility lessons and so your ability your rate of succeeding
Speaker 1: in game bets ought to there for increase. So at
Speaker 1: twenty nine points I went under because with that short
Speaker 1: of a runway, you can start to really wrap your
Speaker 1: brain around well, you know, if it's fourth and long,
Speaker 1: they have a hurt Kicker and Dustin Hopkins maybe you know,
Speaker 1: maybe they use him them. If it's fourth in short,
Speaker 1: they're not going to use Dustin Hopkins. And if if
Speaker 1: Los Angeles messes up and doesn't get the fourth down,
Speaker 1: that will be zero added to the point total. Denver
Speaker 1: won't be incentivized to matriculate the ball down in the
Speaker 1: field at any rapid rate, or if or if Los
Speaker 1: Angeles does get you know, the touchdown eventually, I don't
Speaker 1: have any confidence in Denver being able to score a
Speaker 1: touchow because they would have needed to touch down at
Speaker 1: that point to ruin your bet um with only two yeah,
Speaker 1: with only two possessions left, that's I'm saying for vetters, yes,
Speaker 1: that worked out for me. Sometimes it doesn't. But when
Speaker 1: you have a shorter runway and you can really, really
Speaker 1: determined this team is going to have this many possessions left,
Speaker 1: and this many possessions left, it's gonna be great. And yes,
Speaker 1: I know it went into overtime, but even if it
Speaker 1: goes into overtime, if the team that gets the ball
Speaker 1: first doesn't score that touchdown, chances are you're only gonna
Speaker 1: have field goals from that point forward. And that's what
Speaker 1: happened anyway. Those are good. Those are good I think
Speaker 1: in game points to make. Let's talk about Thursday night football.
Speaker 1: It is a it's not a it's not a terrible
Speaker 1: matchup like last week on paper, like the Bears and
Speaker 1: the Commanders, but it is two teams that, my goodness,
Speaker 1: the Saints and the Cardinals, even at their best, what
Speaker 1: what do you make of them? And tonight we have
Speaker 1: a lot of injuries for the Saints. Aaron Jarvis Landry
Speaker 1: is out, Michael Thomas is out, Andrew's Pete Adam Troutman,
Speaker 1: and maybe most significantly, Marshawn Lattimore out for the Saints.
Speaker 1: And the reason that might be most significant because DeAndre
Speaker 1: Hopkins is back from a six game p D suspension
Speaker 1: for the Cardinals, James Conners the game time decision, Robby
Speaker 1: Anderson newly acquired from the Panthers. He'll be very limited
Speaker 1: no matter what. But all of those things in the mix,
Speaker 1: what do you make of this? Cardinals favored by two
Speaker 1: and a half? You play anything here? The one thing
Speaker 1: I would say is that most of those receivers have
Speaker 1: generally been out for the Saints for a few weeks now,
Speaker 1: so I think it's not Uh, it's not like you
Speaker 1: need to drop your opinion of the Saints too much
Speaker 1: from what you've already seen from them the last couple
Speaker 1: of weeks, because we've already seen a couple of weeks
Speaker 1: of them without these receivers. Latimore being out is new,
Speaker 1: I think. Um, I'm kind of staying away from this.
Speaker 1: Are our numbers? Like like the Saints. The problem is
Speaker 1: it's it's difficult to know how much to adjust for injuries,
Speaker 1: especially non quarterback injuries. Right, Sometimes they don't really mean anything,
Speaker 1: and sometimes they're really important. Um and uh. And I
Speaker 1: would also like the science Saints better if the line
Speaker 1: was three rather than two and a half. So, um,
Speaker 1: both of these teams have been bad this year. The
Speaker 1: difference is, you know, at this point in the season,
Speaker 1: we're still incorporating in our metrics preseason projections at a
Speaker 1: pretty good amount, because you know, our research has shown
Speaker 1: that even six and seven weeks into the season, your
Speaker 1: preseason projections are worth about as much as the knowledge
Speaker 1: that you have from the six weeks that have been played.
Speaker 1: And in the preseason, we thought the Saints were a
Speaker 1: much better defense than Arizona. So we still kind of
Speaker 1: think the Saints are a better defense than Arizona. So
Speaker 1: that's why we like the Saints. But as far as
Speaker 1: how they've actually played this year, I think we have
Speaker 1: the Saints like twenty six and the Cardinals like they've
Speaker 1: both been on both sides of the ball. By the way,
Speaker 1: you had a tweet I should point this out. You
Speaker 1: had a tweet this week, um, where you were looking
Speaker 1: at your d v O a top ten d v
Speaker 1: O eight Football Outsiders probably most famous stat, proprietary stat,
Speaker 1: and how many teams in the in the top ten loss?
Speaker 1: As it turned out in the end, I think seven
Speaker 1: out of the top ten teams from last week lost,
Speaker 1: And then I'm not pointed that out to knock d
Speaker 1: v o A and anyway, I'm just pointing that out
Speaker 1: to it was that kind of weak. Yeah, yeah, Buccaneers
Speaker 1: losing and uh San Francisco losing and of course a
Speaker 1: couple of them lost to each other, right, Dallas lost
Speaker 1: to Philly in Kansas City lost to Buffalo. Do we
Speaker 1: do you feel at all? I feel incoming. I feel
Speaker 1: it's in coming upon me to ask you this question.
Speaker 1: And Jeff, Jeff Parls and I were talking about this
Speaker 1: earlier in the week that when when an NFL season
Speaker 1: is like this, like Pete Rosel's dream of parody coming
Speaker 1: alive in a way that I don't want to be
Speaker 1: person at the moment, but I don't quite remember it
Speaker 1: being this way. Survivor is a great sort of reflection
Speaker 1: of that. You know, sixty plus entries and Circus Survivor
Speaker 1: after six weeks, there's less than four hundred left. Like,
Speaker 1: I mean, you can't even pick a game, just on
Speaker 1: a team to win and keep it going, you know, uh,
Speaker 1: with any sort of success percentage, why six less than
Speaker 1: seven percent of survivor entries remain in that less than
Speaker 1: seven percent. There's other survivor pools where it's like three um,
Speaker 1: and so I wonder, I wonder from an your perspective,
Speaker 1: from an analytics perspective, do you ever have the thought
Speaker 1: in your head of like, wow, when it's this Michugna,
Speaker 1: do I feel like I'm spinning my wheels with the analytics,
Speaker 1: like it's so difficult? Do you ever have that thought? No?
Speaker 1: I mean I think there are still I think there
Speaker 1: are still advantages to find, and there are still differences
Speaker 1: between teams. You just have to accept that they're going
Speaker 1: to be smaller than usual. Like I'll give you another stat.
Speaker 1: The standard deviation of d v o A is the
Speaker 1: lowest ever after six weeks. Right, so if you look
Speaker 1: at our stat for every team after six weeks going
Speaker 1: back all the way to this is the year with
Speaker 1: the least amount of standard deviation. Like it's just the
Speaker 1: teams are just pooled together. But there are still some
Speaker 1: that are better and some that are worse. And and
Speaker 1: you've got advantages because we know which teams are better
Speaker 1: or worse even though they're three and three, or like
Speaker 1: which two and four teams are really two and four,
Speaker 1: and which two and four teams have actually played well?
Speaker 1: And so I think there's advantages to be found in
Speaker 1: in the nooks and crowning crannies. Thomas is English, Muffins,
Speaker 1: Todd and jeff anything anything on tonight's game. I am,
Speaker 1: I am staying away till in the game for me. Yeah,
Speaker 1: go ahead, Jeff No, you know about the same thing
Speaker 1: I leaned Saints. I you know, I'm I am really
Speaker 1: down on this Cardinal the team. I mean, you can't score.
Speaker 1: I know your guys are out, but you can't score
Speaker 1: on Seattle's defense. I mean, everybody was scoring on Seattle's defense.
Speaker 1: Teams were like going up and down the field like
Speaker 1: it was like Candy in New Orleans. Saints had her
Speaker 1: thirty two already scored another touch. It was like unbelievable.
Speaker 1: The Lions scored like a hundred on them, I think,
Speaker 1: and and Arizona couldn't do anything. I mean, that was
Speaker 1: just an embarrassment offensively. And okay, so they're gonna get
Speaker 1: Hopkins back, but all the said, now you know everything's
Speaker 1: gonna be okay. I don't like this Cardinal team at all.
Speaker 1: If I if I I mean, if I had to
Speaker 1: bet a pre game, I would be on the Saints.
Speaker 1: Jeffrey nothing here, nothing here at all, And uh, I
Speaker 1: just want to go back to the conversation that we
Speaker 1: were just having then you and Aaron were just having
Speaker 1: because you and I talked exactly talked about this early
Speaker 1: in the week, where Aaron, this is. This is not
Speaker 1: a shot at at you or or the folks a
Speaker 1: pro football focus in a year that and at last
Speaker 1: point you made is a really good point in a
Speaker 1: year that's just so so even. It really does feel
Speaker 1: like that the models are a little more off than
Speaker 1: they usually would be this year, and that really doesn't
Speaker 1: have to do with the models themselves. It just has
Speaker 1: to do with the point that that that we were
Speaker 1: all just making this league other than at least for
Speaker 1: me and I know Aaron, you and Buffalo in Philadelphia
Speaker 1: at the top, I'll throw Kansas City in there. Those
Speaker 1: three teams aren't a different a different level as everybody
Speaker 1: else is. Once you get the four and Gil, I
Speaker 1: know you, You and Kelly do this on a numbers
Speaker 1: game still at the power rankings, and it kind of
Speaker 1: plays out like this. If you told me one of
Speaker 1: fifteen different teams was the fourth best team in the
Speaker 1: league right now, I would sit there and listen. So Yeah,
Speaker 1: it just feels like there's all right, there's three teams
Speaker 1: at the top, there's probably three teams at the bottom,
Speaker 1: definitely two in Carolina and Houston at least for me,
Speaker 1: that are pretty clearly worse than everybody else. But then
Speaker 1: once you get past those five teams, I'm well, anyone
Speaker 1: can beat anyone, and that's kind of what makes this
Speaker 1: league again hard to bed. And we're doing a pretty
Speaker 1: damn good job as it is, the three of us
Speaker 1: in the guests this year, but it can provide for
Speaker 1: some very weird results, as we have seen plenty so
Speaker 1: far through the first six weeks. Yeah, one of the
Speaker 1: reasons the models seems so off is that so many
Speaker 1: have been one score games, so they've been allow out
Speaker 1: of like the underlying model says Team A outplayed Team
Speaker 1: B pretty substantially, and then Team B wins by two points. Right,
Speaker 1: There's a lot of that going on this year. So
Speaker 1: I I do feel like over the long term we'll
Speaker 1: see the models will be more right than wrong as
Speaker 1: far as you know, for example, that Baltimore is the
Speaker 1: best of the three and three teams, right, Like, I
Speaker 1: know that's what my model has, and that's what I
Speaker 1: think a lot of them have. The Ravens are pretty
Speaker 1: good among the three and three teams, and I think
Speaker 1: we'll see that as time goes on, that that would
Speaker 1: be proven right. But it's hard because this year hass
Speaker 1: are so grouped together and and there have been so
Speaker 1: many close games. Who is your thirty two and your
Speaker 1: thirty one? Who is my thirty two and my thirty one?
Speaker 1: We have Carolina thirty two. I like that, and we
Speaker 1: have Chicago thirty one. I would agree with that. I
Speaker 1: was surprised that Jeff said to Carol and that you
Speaker 1: went Houston thirty one. I agree with that completely. Carolina
Speaker 1: thirty two, Chicago thirty one. Um, you know it's it's
Speaker 1: gil what we're real fast, and I know I know
Speaker 1: we were. We we got to get to the regular picks.
Speaker 1: Errands brought up something that's really important to everything. All
Speaker 1: these games are so close, which kind of makes our
Speaker 1: our lack of success with teasers even more amazing. It does.
Speaker 1: It's been this here because all these games, it's for
Speaker 1: five weeks. It's the most games decided by by by
Speaker 1: a touchdown are less so far in league history. Most
Speaker 1: games that had a that had a three point margin
Speaker 1: and through your less point margin entering the fourth quarter
Speaker 1: through five weeks. Uh. In theory, it should be a
Speaker 1: great teaser here and and it has not been. It's
Speaker 1: been a terrible Stanford long here. And it has been
Speaker 1: a terrible Stanford long hear and in theory though, like, yeah,
Speaker 1: it should, we should do better on the teasers. But
Speaker 1: then there's always one team that that torpedoes everything on
Speaker 1: a week to week basis, right, So um, all right,
Speaker 1: let's get to the best bets, sides or totals. We'll
Speaker 1: snake this. Aaron, what's your first? By first one, I
Speaker 1: was just talking about how much my numbers like the Ravens.
Speaker 1: So I'm going with even minus six and a half
Speaker 1: against Cleveland, Ravens minus six and a half against Cleveland.
Speaker 1: You're down on Cleveland. We have Cleveland twenty one, including
Speaker 1: thirty feet on defense, and we have Baltimore third. So
Speaker 1: you know, I do think that over time we're going
Speaker 1: to see the weird fourth quarter high jinks that Baltimore
Speaker 1: has gotten into are going to fade away. Teams that
Speaker 1: collapse in the fourth quarter early in the season do
Speaker 1: not tend to do that all year, and they're just
Speaker 1: they're pretty good team Baltimore. As Aaron is pointing out,
Speaker 1: I want to get the stat here. This is from
Speaker 1: ESPN Stats in information Baltimore. I can't find it right now,
Speaker 1: but of all the teams that have led by double
Speaker 1: digits the first six weeks of the season, Baltimore is
Speaker 1: the first of those teams to end up three and
Speaker 1: three in the history of the National Football League something
Speaker 1: like that. I'm paraphrasing, but I think that was it. Todd,
Speaker 1: what's your number one? I'm going under forty nine in
Speaker 1: the Lions and Cowboys. I'm gonna riding these Cowboy games
Speaker 1: under because they're to me, a classic underteam, a fantastic defense,
Speaker 1: a really good defense. Now, granted, Philadelphia did score on them,
Speaker 1: but Philadelphia has been an outstanding team this year. So
Speaker 1: I'm gonna throw that in the garbage and I'm gonna
Speaker 1: look at all the other teams that Dallas dominated defensively
Speaker 1: this year. And with that said, before, you know, they
Speaker 1: got down big and then they clawed their way back
Speaker 1: in that game with their defense holding you know, Philadelphia
Speaker 1: field goals and stuff. So I I really love this
Speaker 1: Cowboy defense. And you know, along with the fact that
Speaker 1: they're gonna Cooper rushed game management the game, and you know,
Speaker 1: in effect, because they didn't. He didn't game manage the
Speaker 1: game and gave up those turnovers early is why they
Speaker 1: lost that Eagles game. Had he just thrown in complete
Speaker 1: passes and not interceptions, you know, they would have been
Speaker 1: in that game all the way to the end. Um So,
Speaker 1: to me, they can hold the Detroit offense down. I
Speaker 1: know Detroit has been, you know, pretty good it offensively
Speaker 1: this year, but I think they're gonna hold almost all
Speaker 1: the teams down offensively. I mean, they really held the
Speaker 1: Rams down and the Rams. You know, obviously the Rams
Speaker 1: haven't been the Rams, but still, I mean, look at
Speaker 1: all these games the Buccaneers, they held them down. They
Speaker 1: they're really holding teams down. So I think they can
Speaker 1: hold the Lions down. And you know, they're not going
Speaker 1: to score a ton. Uh So forty nine, that's you know,
Speaker 1: that's a number that's kind of reserved more for a
Speaker 1: high scoring game for both teams. So I'm gonna go
Speaker 1: with under forty nine Alliance Cowboys. Going back to the
Speaker 1: totals there, Jeff number one, I'm gonna take the Atlanta
Speaker 1: Falcons getting six and a half at Cincinnati. Now, I
Speaker 1: know at some point Atlanta is going to not cover
Speaker 1: a game and the only undefeated team against the spread,
Speaker 1: But if you watch the Falcons, now, yes, there was
Speaker 1: a fluky touchdown mixed in there against uh against the
Speaker 1: forty Niners where the Niners had to turn over to
Speaker 1: turn into seven the other way. But the Atlanta Falcons,
Speaker 1: and we've talked about this, they were not a dragon
Speaker 1: league like everyone thought they were going to be going
Speaker 1: into this season, and they're five hundred. I think they're
Speaker 1: live in the NFC South until Temple works their works
Speaker 1: through their stuff, which they may not. This might just
Speaker 1: be full on karma for Tom Brady everything that has
Speaker 1: happened for this year that he had to squeeze one
Speaker 1: more NFL season out of him for no apparent reason.
Speaker 1: But look, I think the Falcons, at least at least offensively,
Speaker 1: are better we than we expected. Defensively, they played well
Speaker 1: last week against the bang of Niners team, and the
Speaker 1: Bengals have shown me nothing to say that they should
Speaker 1: be a touchdown almost a touchdown favorite against anyone that
Speaker 1: isn't at the complete bottom of the league. So I'll
Speaker 1: take the six and a half with the Falcons, and look,
Speaker 1: until I've proven otherwise. On this Falcon team, I think
Speaker 1: Arthur Smith. I think Arthur Smith knows what he's doing
Speaker 1: at least coaching offense guys. We've seen that um this
Speaker 1: year where even though Marriott has been okay, he's been
Speaker 1: significantly better than what Matt Ryan game last year too.
Speaker 1: So I'll take the Falcons getting six and a half
Speaker 1: Mariota thirteen of fourteen last week passing. I think the
Speaker 1: fourteenth was the incompletion, the incompletion, his final pass, inconsequential
Speaker 1: threat with the legs. That's the guy that I wanted
Speaker 1: Washington to get uh in free agency. I wanted them
Speaker 1: to get Mariota. Of course they were left with Carson
Speaker 1: wasn't not left with them. They traded a king's ransom
Speaker 1: form and now it's the Taylor Heineke experience moving forward,
Speaker 1: which I'm pumped about also, but we'll see how that
Speaker 1: works out. I find this week to be the toughest
Speaker 1: week thus far. Um. I think every week thus far,
Speaker 1: I've had like, oh, I like this guy, like five,
Speaker 1: then I liked three. There was no question coming into
Speaker 1: the Megapod what I was gonna pick It's a little
Speaker 1: more difficult for me this week, um, but I am
Speaker 1: going to say Number one for me will be Monday
Speaker 1: night the New England Patriots. I am going to lay
Speaker 1: the wood with the Patriots. Minus eight is what I'm saying, boys, Yes,
Speaker 1: minus eight on the Patriots against the Bears. I said
Speaker 1: earlier when I picked the Patriots against the Lions a
Speaker 1: couple of weeks ago, and the Patriots rolled the Lions,
Speaker 1: my comment was, I don't know why Bill Belichick is
Speaker 1: gonna be Dan Campbell. I just know that he's going
Speaker 1: to be Dan Campbell, and I feel that way about
Speaker 1: this matchup here between Belichick and Matt aberflus Um. I
Speaker 1: even if you recall when we when we talked about
Speaker 1: that game on the Megapod, I said at the time,
Speaker 1: I don't dislike the Bailey zappy in Mac Jones thing
Speaker 1: out as most people now. At that time, people thought
Speaker 1: I was nuts about that. But one of the things
Speaker 1: we brought up on this show was our our nonsense
Speaker 1: metric that we came up with the itch interceptions that
Speaker 1: should have happened. And if you watched Mac Jones, he
Speaker 1: was drilling opponents in the chest. There was a couple
Speaker 1: of picks six Is that didn't happen? He got so
Speaker 1: lucky on those Bailey Zappy has been everything they could
Speaker 1: have possibly wanted him to be. I don't know if
Speaker 1: there's a quarterback, I'll go ahead, Eric, I was gonna say,
Speaker 1: would it change your mind if you knew that? Mike
Speaker 1: Reese reported this morning that they do believe that mac
Speaker 1: Jones will be ready to go Monday. Oh no, is
Speaker 1: that gonna happen for real? That is the story from
Speaker 1: Mike Reese. And nobody is more plugged into the Patriots
Speaker 1: than that is for sure. Mike res always fascinating to
Speaker 1: listen to. Um, it's not going to dissuade me. I
Speaker 1: think they will get it done with either quarterback. But
Speaker 1: I will take the Patriots minus the eight. And I
Speaker 1: don't think the market thinks there's a difference between the
Speaker 1: two quarterbacks either. Is the point? The line hasn't moved
Speaker 1: since the story. Yeah, so listen to bears Zappy. Zappy
Speaker 1: was outstanding at Western Kentucky. Could you imagine of what
Speaker 1: what he would have been behind the Alabama offensive line.
Speaker 1: That's the thing with a lot of these you know,
Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrences and these guys, they're playing with such high
Speaker 1: level offensive lines and and and skill position players that
Speaker 1: we just anoint them. We just annoyed Trevor law Trevor Lawrence,
Speaker 1: he's the greatest. Of course, of course, you know, yeah,
Speaker 1: of course he looks great. Throw in a guy who's
Speaker 1: fantastic from Western Kentucky behind the Clemson offensive line, he
Speaker 1: would have looked great too, So you know, that's what
Speaker 1: it drives me crazy. But here's the thing. He also
Speaker 1: had to face sun Belt pass rushers, whereas whoever is
Speaker 1: behind the Alabama offensive line has to face SEC pass rushers.
Speaker 1: That's fair, that's fair, but you can't take the other
Speaker 1: side out of it as well. Listen, I and Todd,
Speaker 1: by the way, no one said the following sentence more
Speaker 1: than I did about Trevor Lawrence. Are we sure he's generational?
Speaker 1: When the draft was happening, like, are we really sure?
Speaker 1: And I would get the sentence like three quarters of
Speaker 1: the way in, and we had some people who would
Speaker 1: like stop me and be like, of course he is.
Speaker 1: I don't know. I was like, I don't know that
Speaker 1: he is. Anyway, I'm on the Patriots. I'm with Aaron
Speaker 1: that the Bears are are just dreadful. Um this Justin Fields.
Speaker 1: By the way, that that NFL Network panel after the game,
Speaker 1: Charissa Thompson, uh Tony Gonzalez, but specifically Richard Sherman and
Speaker 1: Andrew Whitworth and who am I forgetting in there as well? Oh,
Speaker 1: Ryan Fitzpatricks. They did such a wonderful job of breaking
Speaker 1: down Justin Fields and the Bears offense the other night,
Speaker 1: and I couldn't have agreed more. And again this being
Speaker 1: reared on, you know, the great X and os of
Speaker 1: Joe Gibbs, where he was able to have the humility
Speaker 1: of I am going to Taylor I X as a
Speaker 1: OS to my personnel. It is not about my system
Speaker 1: being infallible. Whatever my personnel is. That's how I'm gonna
Speaker 1: tailor this. And by the way, if we're wrong in
Speaker 1: the first half, we're gonna adjust it too. Those are
Speaker 1: great coaches, not the Steve Spurits. My way is the
Speaker 1: only way, and we're gonna pitch it and catch it
Speaker 1: and all that. Just to use an extreme example, but
Speaker 1: they were saying about Luke Getsy, the offensive coordinator. Remember,
Speaker 1: Justin Fields was not their guy. They didn't draft him,
Speaker 1: and so they seem really intent on making him successful
Speaker 1: their way be a pocket passer, be successful out of
Speaker 1: the pocket when it's so obvious that if you roll
Speaker 1: him out or if you let him use his legs,
Speaker 1: he's virtually unstoppable that way. I don't know about unstoppable,
Speaker 1: but he's great. He's elite that way. Ryan Fitzpatrick does
Speaker 1: this great, does these great breakdowns on things. He also
Speaker 1: said the same thing about Twa, where he's like, hey,
Speaker 1: TWA's elite accuracy is what gets him, you know, the
Speaker 1: success that he has. He doesn't have any of the
Speaker 1: other things. So hearing that from Ryan Fitzpatrick drove it home.
Speaker 1: I'm with the Patriots minus eight snaking and again, I
Speaker 1: don't love this car, but I'm gonna take the Seahawks
Speaker 1: plus the five and a half. Do I get the
Speaker 1: hook with the Seahawks against the Chargers? Yeah? Five and
Speaker 1: a half? Um, And this is not you know, this
Speaker 1: is listen on a card that I don't love. I
Speaker 1: just don't trust the Chargers to cover against anybody with
Speaker 1: that many points. It looks like Keenan Allen is not
Speaker 1: going to go. And by the way, the Chargers have
Speaker 1: a by coming up. They ought to just let him
Speaker 1: heal that hamstring once again for another additional couple of weeks,
Speaker 1: since you have that opportunity, and so without him, and
Speaker 1: again I don't know, like if he comes back, will
Speaker 1: they'd be magically better? Maybe? Maybe not, But I don't
Speaker 1: trust this team to cover any numbers. And the Seahawks
Speaker 1: again do the thing. If you want to wow your
Speaker 1: friends at a party, put Gino Smith blind resume against
Speaker 1: like Aaron Rodgers, and they'll they'll go crazy. We all
Speaker 1: peak care a little bit of an apology. He was like,
Speaker 1: it's I'm going with Gino Smith and Drew log I
Speaker 1: don't need Jimmy Garoppolo. It's worked out great. This this
Speaker 1: insanity of playing like running football that we think is
Speaker 1: like ball. Guess what that's kind of working out for
Speaker 1: the Seahawks. Yes, their defense has largely been dreadful up
Speaker 1: until last week, but you give me five and a
Speaker 1: half points, I'll take them. Seahawks my number two kill.
Speaker 1: There's a point you just made that I said to
Speaker 1: someone else this week, and I'm happy you brought it up.
Speaker 1: We talked about market inefficiencies all the time, and this
Speaker 1: will this will actually lead into my second pick. Here.
Speaker 1: The new market inefficiency is that these teams are so
Speaker 1: hell bent on stopping the past they have built their
Speaker 1: defense to stop the past, that teams that have a good,
Speaker 1: too great run game have looked a lot better, especially
Speaker 1: these last few weeks. And my my pick is going
Speaker 1: to lead right into us and and it's the New
Speaker 1: York Jets on the road against the Denver Broncos. Take
Speaker 1: the point with my Jets, because they have found something
Speaker 1: in Breece Hall where the Jets have not had a
Speaker 1: running back like this. Sin's Curtis Martin. Curtis Barton obviously
Speaker 1: was pretty damn good. One of is all said and done,
Speaker 1: But look, I think there's something to be said now.
Speaker 1: The defenses are now built to slow down the past.
Speaker 1: They're built to slow down Mahomes, They're built to slow
Speaker 1: down Alan. But I I think teams that have good
Speaker 1: run games, good good run blocking offensive lines, good running
Speaker 1: backs are going to have success. The Broncos offense is
Speaker 1: an abject disaster as we know, and the Jets destroyed
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers and the Packers last week defensively. They were
Speaker 1: getting pressure all the time with four There's no reason
Speaker 1: to think that won't happen again against this Bronco team
Speaker 1: on Sunday said, look, I I know it's down from
Speaker 1: three and a half in the opener. I do not care.
Speaker 1: I think the Jets are winning the game out right
Speaker 1: and getting in getting the five and two, which will
Speaker 1: set up a showdown at the Meadowlands next week between
Speaker 1: them and the Patriots, who are two teams that have
Speaker 1: obviously overachieved so far through the first six weeks of
Speaker 1: the year. I love hearing Jeff's enthusiasm right from the
Speaker 1: Mets right to the Jets. I love it. Todd number
Speaker 1: two one by Big Gil. Both teams can hurt me.
Speaker 1: That's okay, both good Dodd. What's number two. I'm just
Speaker 1: worried about Jets Jets this week because they I feel like,
Speaker 1: you know, it's been so much yeah that I feel
Speaker 1: like it's it's it's not gonna end well for poor
Speaker 1: Jeffrey over there. But okay, we'll root for you, Jeffrey.
Speaker 1: I am going with my second game. I'm going down
Speaker 1: to a city that some of you might have heard of.
Speaker 1: It's called Miami, Florida. Miami Florida. There's gonna be a
Speaker 1: grinder game. We're gonna play the Insers. There ain't gonna
Speaker 1: be much scoring. We're going under in the ball game
Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins Pittsburgh Steelers under the forty five? Is that
Speaker 1: what you guys have? Under forty five? Forty four and
Speaker 1: a half and a half. An I'll take I'll take
Speaker 1: the forty four and a half, no problem. Under forty
Speaker 1: under forty four and a half in Miami against the Insers. Uh,
Speaker 1: the Ensers are gonna be They're gonna be a team. Look,
Speaker 1: we look, we don't have a lot of offense. Let's
Speaker 1: be let's be real. Okay, we have defense done here.
Speaker 1: That's what we do. We're just still Pittsburgh Stores. We
Speaker 1: played at kind of football. We are a defensive football team,
Speaker 1: and I think our coach knows we're a defensive football team.
Speaker 1: That's why what we're gonna do is we're gonna try
Speaker 1: to run the ball. We're gonna try and make sure
Speaker 1: that our inexperienced quarterbacks and untalented quarterbacks don't hurt us.
Speaker 1: And we're gonna try to keep the score dying. You
Speaker 1: gotta keep score dying. And that's the only hope this week. Look,
Speaker 1: I like it under because look, the Steelers, the Steelers
Speaker 1: offenses is really not good. I mean, I know Travisky
Speaker 1: hit a couple long third downs when he really needed
Speaker 1: I have no I have no idea how that happened. Um.
Speaker 1: Even so, the score was eighteen against the Buccaneers. Uh,
Speaker 1: Miami's offense with Teddy Now it's you know, it's okay.
Speaker 1: It doesn't you know, it doesn't get me all excited.
Speaker 1: I think the Steelers will be able to hang with
Speaker 1: them defensively and keep it down. I just to me,
Speaker 1: it looks like a typical Steeler fest where it's gonna
Speaker 1: be you know, twenty to thirteen or some some ugly number,
Speaker 1: you know, because Pittsburgh can't really do a lot on
Speaker 1: offense and their defensive team. So I think that's the
Speaker 1: main fact here that Pittsburgh's gonna play teams unders because
Speaker 1: that's the only way they can stay in games. They
Speaker 1: know they can't out score teams. Give me under forty five,
Speaker 1: forty five a lot of points forty four and a
Speaker 1: half ring. By the way, Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh people with their
Speaker 1: love of Kenny Pipott and Kenny Pickett, and they're just
Speaker 1: staying for Mr Biscuit. I have expected them to be like, oh,
Speaker 1: if it was just was picking in there, we would
Speaker 1: have thrown for thirty yards on those third and laws,
Speaker 1: Like it's ridiculous busy credit. Yeah, look, Kenny Pickett may
Speaker 1: be good, may not be good. He's certainly we don't
Speaker 1: know that. The Pittsburgh fan base acts like he's like
Speaker 1: Montana and Marino combined. Already two and three from you.
Speaker 1: You can sneak these. Yeah, I'm gonna start with the
Speaker 1: Tennessee and Indianapolis under forty two and a half. Okay, uh,
Speaker 1: Colts are the second worst offense in the league by
Speaker 1: d v O A average defense so far, Titans are
Speaker 1: pretty much average across the board, but they are the
Speaker 1: slowest paced offense in the league. Slow pace equals fewer points.
Speaker 1: So this one went to forty one when they played
Speaker 1: three weeks ago, and I like going under forty two
Speaker 1: and a half on Tennessee in Indianapolis. My other one
Speaker 1: is Jacksonville and the Giants over forty two. The Giants
Speaker 1: are not very good on defense. Efficiency wise, they haven't
Speaker 1: given up a lot of points, but on a per
Speaker 1: play basis, they've been a pretty bad defense. The offense
Speaker 1: has been pretty good in particular the last three weeks,
Speaker 1: the offense has been really good. The Jaguars are kind
Speaker 1: of middle of the road, but a lot of that
Speaker 1: is based on that week too game against the Colts.
Speaker 1: But their defense is more built by that week to
Speaker 1: game than they're off. Their offense has been more consistent
Speaker 1: in other weeks. Their defense mostly was just really good
Speaker 1: in that one game. So I think they're more of
Speaker 1: an offensive team. I think the Giants are more of
Speaker 1: an offensive team. I like them to get together and
Speaker 1: score some points. So Jacksonville and the Giants over forty
Speaker 1: tod number three. Let's be brief, my number three is
Speaker 1: going to be the Ravens since in Ravens Browns game
Speaker 1: over forty five and a half, I am not at
Speaker 1: all convinced that Cleveland can stop anyone. They seem to
Speaker 1: allow everyone to go up and down the field against them.
Speaker 1: I don't see why the Ravens won't do that as well.
Speaker 1: And offensively they are pretty decent. So I'm going to
Speaker 1: be quick with you, and I'm just gonna say over
Speaker 1: forty five and a half, Baltimore hasn't really stopped anybody either,
Speaker 1: and so you know, give me over forty five and
Speaker 1: a half in a high scoring ball game down in Baltimore.
Speaker 1: I am going to take the Washington Commandos getting five
Speaker 1: points against the Green Bay Packers. Uh again, Gil, you
Speaker 1: said that this card stinks. This is a really hard cart.
Speaker 1: This kind of feels This kind of feels like two
Speaker 1: weeks ago where I got destroyed, so it could happen again.
Speaker 1: But look, this is one of those where I think
Speaker 1: Heineke is a better quarterback than Carson Wentz's and Green
Speaker 1: Bay right now is in the is in shambles, And look,
Speaker 1: I I do think part of what happened on Sunday
Speaker 1: to them was the Jets genuinely playing a great defensive game.
Speaker 1: But you score ten points at home the week before,
Speaker 1: you bought a big halftime lead against the Giants, and
Speaker 1: Cam move the ball at all against the Giants. And
Speaker 1: Aaron said, I don't think the Giants defense is particularly good.
Speaker 1: I just think the Giants defense is opportunistic and has
Speaker 1: taken advantage of the opportunities when given with forcing turnovers
Speaker 1: as we saw in that Baltimore game this past Sunday.
Speaker 1: But look, I I think Washington with Heineke in there, uh,
Speaker 1: we'll have a chance to win this game outright. So
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the five with Washington and hope for
Speaker 1: the best yet. And let's let's make this cat. Carson
Speaker 1: Wentz makes throws that Taylor Heinekey doesn't. But Taylor Heineck
Speaker 1: gives you the added dimension of legs, So there is that.
Speaker 1: We'll see how it goes. Um okay in my three
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna let all the hate wash over me.
Speaker 1: And I'm just doing this one on the fly just
Speaker 1: to our point that this is a very difficult week.
Speaker 1: I have actually decided on the fly to take the
Speaker 1: Cardinals tonight minus two and a half. I just have
Speaker 1: an instinct about this tonight. I just think that they
Speaker 1: show up. I could be terribly wrong, and Cliff Kingsbury,
Speaker 1: by the way I click King Zurie messes this up tonight.
Speaker 1: That may be his job. It could be that that
Speaker 1: bad at this point. But I do think the addition
Speaker 1: of Hopkins and the subtraction of Lattimore will matter. I
Speaker 1: will take the Cardinals minus two and a half as
Speaker 1: my number three teasers of the week. Todd wishnev an
Speaker 1: O N six. Thus far on the season, the rest
Speaker 1: of us aren't much better. Aaron, what is your favorite
Speaker 1: two teams six point teasers? Sir, well, I'm going against you.
Speaker 1: I had said I didn't want to play tonight, but
Speaker 1: that was with the two and a half point line.
Speaker 1: I'm actually gonna say Saints plus eight and a half.
Speaker 1: I like that because I don't think that the Cardinals
Speaker 1: will win big. I don't think either team is gonna
Speaker 1: win big in this game because these teams are so
Speaker 1: mad against each other. Um and then the other one
Speaker 1: I'm going. I'm I'm putting it with Cowboys minus one. Yes,
Speaker 1: I can see I can see the Cowboys playing again
Speaker 1: against the Lions, a game that ends up too close
Speaker 1: for comfort. But I have a hard time seeing them
Speaker 1: lose to the Lions. So that's my teaser. Saints plus
Speaker 1: eight and a half, Cowboys minus one. Todd Um, I
Speaker 1: am gonna go with Pats minus two. I find it
Speaker 1: hard to see how the Bears are going to stay
Speaker 1: within that amount of points of the Pats. And I'm
Speaker 1: gonna go with the l V Raiders. The Raid is
Speaker 1: minus one. I just you know, I just think talent wise,
Speaker 1: they've got too much talent for Houston on the road,
Speaker 1: and so give me the rate is minus one, Pats
Speaker 1: minus two, go over oh and seven Parley Indianapolis up
Speaker 1: to eight and a half against the Titans. I think
Speaker 1: I think that's a close game, regardless of how you slice,
Speaker 1: and I think both of those teams stink. But that's
Speaker 1: a different argument for a different day. And then I, uh, well,
Speaker 1: this is a risk now that Toddy has one of
Speaker 1: my legs. I'll also take the Raiders down to one.
Speaker 1: I the last two years I crushed in teasers, so
Speaker 1: let's all just freaking have a column that held down.
Speaker 1: I was waiting to see what he was gonna break.
Speaker 1: Oh my god, these two. But I think the Raiders
Speaker 1: are much better. And uh, you know, until Davante Adams
Speaker 1: gets said suspension for shoving the cameraman, which I think
Speaker 1: we all agree is inevitably going to happen at some point,
Speaker 1: I think Adams is gonna have a massive stretch. So
Speaker 1: this is a great matchup, obviously against a terrible defense
Speaker 1: for the Raiders offense to go out there and put
Speaker 1: a ton of points to win a game pretty handily.
Speaker 1: Uh So ling one seems pretty good to me. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I don't claim to know what's gonna happen with Davante
Speaker 1: and that I have no idea. Um, I'm going New
Speaker 1: England teas down through the seven and the and the
Speaker 1: three to the two New England minus two, and I
Speaker 1: will pair that with the Dallas Cowboys basically down to one,
Speaker 1: having them just have to win that game against the Lions.
Speaker 1: That would be my teaser. Alright, Survivor, Aaron, are you
Speaker 1: in any Survivor pools at all? I am not in
Speaker 1: a Survivor pool, but I do have a suggestion for
Speaker 1: this week. I like, based on the idea that you've
Speaker 1: probably used some of the best teams and you want
Speaker 1: to save some of the best teams for future weeks,
Speaker 1: this is the week to take the New England Patriots. Yes, Jason,
Speaker 1: Jason just crushing Errand's point there at the end. I'm
Speaker 1: with you. So I am in Survivor, I have one
Speaker 1: entry left in circle. To me, that is exactly right.
Speaker 1: I think New England will be the single most popular
Speaker 1: play because of what you're saying. This is also the
Speaker 1: last best opportunity to use them, Like, there's not another
Speaker 1: time on the schedule for the Patriots where will be
Speaker 1: more favorable. So I think there'll be number one. The
Speaker 1: other option would be the Raiders. Uh, same sort of thinking.
Speaker 1: At least the Raiders at home don't have a better
Speaker 1: option on paper against the Texans, but the Texas are
Speaker 1: a little more feisty than the Bears in terms of
Speaker 1: those two opponents. So I think it's I think it's
Speaker 1: New England one. I think it's the Raiders too. By
Speaker 1: the way, there's tons of options this week for those.
Speaker 1: Obviously some people have used some team, others haven't. Um,
Speaker 1: but I think those are gonna be one and two.
Speaker 1: And then the final two questions boys and girls that
Speaker 1: we ask on every single megapod will ask them again,
Speaker 1: and this one there's tons of candidates, which is which
Speaker 1: of the big favorites is the single most likely to
Speaker 1: lose out right? And there's tons of them. Cincinnati is
Speaker 1: the six and a half point favorite at home against Atlanta,
Speaker 1: will do it six and a half and above seven.
Speaker 1: Cowboys seven point favorites at home against the Lions. UH.
Speaker 1: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers eleven point favorites on the road
Speaker 1: against Carolina. Baltimore is the six and a half point
Speaker 1: favorite at home against the Browns greater seven point favorites
Speaker 1: at home against the Texans. These are just on and
Speaker 1: on Dolphins seven point favorites at home against the Steelers
Speaker 1: and the Patriots eight point favorites at home against the Bears.
Speaker 1: Which of those, Aaron, is the most likely in your
Speaker 1: opinion to lose? Outright? I would say the Chargers, Oh,
Speaker 1: five and a half. We cannot include the Charges in that.
Speaker 1: I thought the Chargers was six and a half, five
Speaker 1: and alf. Then I would say Cincinnati, Cincinnati six and
Speaker 1: six and a half, just because Atlanta's offense has been
Speaker 1: feisty this year. Even though their defense has been bad,
Speaker 1: their offense has been feisty, and a j. Turvell against
Speaker 1: Jamaar Chase is going to be an interesting matchup. Not
Speaker 1: not to not to dismiss your charges, as I think
Speaker 1: we clue the Chargers. Everybody would have picked the charges.
Speaker 1: Chargers are so difficult to get it. We'll get to
Speaker 1: the Chargers of a second here, Todd, what's the big
Speaker 1: favorite suppost like to lose? That? Right, Toddy? I think
Speaker 1: the Dolphins could lose to the Steelers. I mean, with
Speaker 1: the Dolphins, this world beating team with the backup quarterback,
Speaker 1: I just I think they've come back to the pack
Speaker 1: and you know, maybe Tomlin can throw mix in some
Speaker 1: Google losh, some way of getting it like he did
Speaker 1: last week against the Bucks. I could see the Miami
Speaker 1: losing to the Stillers, to the Stiller's Jeffrey. This is
Speaker 1: actually a fun one because I also think it's the
Speaker 1: the the underdog that's in this category and it's most
Speaker 1: likely to get run out of the damn building. But
Speaker 1: I also think they're like possible win the game out right?
Speaker 1: Is Cleveland against Baltimore just because I know, I look,
Speaker 1: I know it's not sustainable for Baltimore to keep melting
Speaker 1: in these in these fourth quarters, but Cleveland is enough
Speaker 1: talent to stay in this game. The other problem with
Speaker 1: that is is was mentioned on the show multiple times
Speaker 1: Baltimore could run, could could run all over Cleveland and
Speaker 1: put forty on him. So UH, rare one where it's
Speaker 1: Baltimore most likely to lose to Cleveland, but also in
Speaker 1: the big favorites Baltimore most likely to blow out Cleveland.
Speaker 1: I can't wait for Deshaun Watson to come back to
Speaker 1: a three and seven Browns team. UH. In week eleven,
Speaker 1: I will say that the most likely to lose out
Speaker 1: right is uh. I'm gonna say the Raiders. I just
Speaker 1: have this bad feeling, I really do, and there's nothing
Speaker 1: else but a bad fid. They should destroy them, and
Speaker 1: they're one in four, for God's sakes, they've lost four
Speaker 1: games by like a combined thirteen points or whatever it
Speaker 1: is the Raiders. They should roll the Texans. But I
Speaker 1: don't know what it is, the Malcolm Gladwell blink thing
Speaker 1: like I've seen this before, so I don't know. The
Speaker 1: Texans are always feisty to me. So I'll just say
Speaker 1: the Raiders because, like you said, Jeff about your game,
Speaker 1: I can see the Raiders beating in my thirty I
Speaker 1: can all see the Raiders losing. And then the final question,
Speaker 1: which Aaron was alluding to. We have four teams on buy,
Speaker 1: so we have a grand total of fourteen football games.
Speaker 1: If you had to bet thirteen of them on the
Speaker 1: side you were forced to, but you were allowed one pass, Aaron,
Speaker 1: what would that be? Chargers versus Seahawks. As Kevin Clark
Speaker 1: has said, the Seahawks have never played a normal game ever,
Speaker 1: and the Chargers seemed completely unpredictable this year, and so
Speaker 1: I they could wallop the Seahawks and they could lose
Speaker 1: this game. By fifteen, like I could go anyway. Are
Speaker 1: you a Brandon's Daily guy in the end or not.
Speaker 1: I'm a little upset with some of the non fourth
Speaker 1: down decisions that Brandon's Daily has made, including hiring Joe
Speaker 1: Lombardi as offensive coordinator. So I've become less of a
Speaker 1: Daily guy, but not for the reasons that other people
Speaker 1: don't like. Great point TOI, what do you want no
Speaker 1: part of? I want no part of this Green Bay
Speaker 1: Commander game? I you know, I don't well what's going
Speaker 1: on with Green Bay. I just don't understand what I'm
Speaker 1: getting with that team and with the Commanders, you know,
Speaker 1: I just you know, now we've got a new quarterback.
Speaker 1: I don't want to Please please refer to them as
Speaker 1: the Commodes in the future, or as the commodoors as
Speaker 1: most people in DC the best. Jeff, what do you
Speaker 1: want to part of? I'll go with Tonight's game Arizona
Speaker 1: New Orleans. It's so funny, Like what I'm thinking of this,
Speaker 1: I'm like, why am I landing on all the games
Speaker 1: I picked already? That's how bad this is. Um, I'm
Speaker 1: gonna say Miami in Pittsburgh. I have no feel for
Speaker 1: that game. That game just feels like I don't know
Speaker 1: if Miami is going to roll them, I don't know
Speaker 1: if pittsburghs and keep it close. I'm uchur bisky guy
Speaker 1: in more ways. I mean, I don't think he's the
Speaker 1: greatest player ever, but I think I'm higher on him
Speaker 1: than most. All right, we've done all we can do.
Speaker 1: Aaron Shots from Football Outsiders. We appreciate it, and thank
Speaker 1: you so much, and we'll talk on a numbers game
Speaker 1: in a few weeks for our halfway through the season
Speaker 1: double segment show. How about that? Absolutely glad I could
Speaker 1: do it. Thank you, sir. Aaron Shots, the founder of
Speaker 1: Football Outsiders. By the way, before you go tell people
Speaker 1: what they can find on Football Outsiders. Of course you
Speaker 1: can find all of our content d v o A.
Speaker 1: If you're an FO plus subscriber, go to Football Outsiders
Speaker 1: dot com slash subscribe. You get our numbers on Monday
Speaker 1: instead of Tuesday, so you get them early. You get
Speaker 1: our picks against the spread, you get our fantasy football
Speaker 1: projections are picks against the spread have totals now, by
Speaker 1: the way, and our totals formula is something like twelve
Speaker 1: games over five hundred for the years so we're doing
Speaker 1: well on it. Beautiful all right for Aaron, shots for Todd,
Speaker 1: wish for Jeff Parlay, Gil Alexander. Thank you so much
Speaker 1: for listening. Good luck with all your weeks seven bets
Speaker 1: in the National Football lay Up. First,