WEBVTT - Open Championship 2023 Betting Guide & Odds (Ep. 308) 0:00:01.080 --> 0:00:04.880 Hello everyone, and welcome to the Open Championship preview for 0:00:04.960 --> 0:00:09.719 betting pros. Uh excuse me, the Open Championship Preview. 0:00:10.119 --> 0:00:12.840 I don't want to say we're gonna get You're gonna 0:00:12.840 --> 0:00:16.280 get canceled by all the purists out there like myself 0:00:16.680 --> 0:00:20.640 who know it as the Open or the Open Championship. 0:00:20.920 --> 0:00:24.680 Yes, this is the the Betting Pros Open Championship Preview. 0:00:24.760 --> 0:00:27.280 I'm Pat Fitzmorris. You can find me on Twitter at 0:00:27.360 --> 0:00:31.480 fits underscore ff and joining me uh here to correct 0:00:31.560 --> 0:00:34.839 me when I make these sorts of faux pause is 0:00:35.320 --> 0:00:39.280 my esteemed colleague Bo McBrayer. He offers his PGA Tour 0:00:39.400 --> 0:00:42.360 betting takes in a weekly Betting Pros article, and he 0:00:42.400 --> 0:00:46.199 also is a DFS podcast on IBT Media called The 0:00:46.280 --> 0:00:50.520 Nineteenth holl Find him on Twitter at Boa Mcbig Time BOUH. 0:00:50.920 --> 0:00:53.440 So you know now that you're no longer aggrieved that 0:00:53.479 --> 0:00:56.000 I refer to it as the British Open as an 0:00:56.080 --> 0:00:59.000 uncouth American, let me ask you one thing before we 0:00:59.040 --> 0:01:01.680 get to the betting and now says you like to cook, 0:01:01.960 --> 0:01:06.360 you enjoy good food. Since we're talking about the Open Championship, 0:01:06.440 --> 0:01:10.080 are there any dishes or delicacies from the UK that 0:01:10.120 --> 0:01:11.320 you're especially fond of. 0:01:12.200 --> 0:01:15.120 There's not many. I mean, they're not exactly known for 0:01:15.160 --> 0:01:19.399 their cuisine over there. One good thing that has come 0:01:19.440 --> 0:01:24.920 from colonialization, though, has been the influence of immigrants and 0:01:25.040 --> 0:01:29.440 the cuisine to Great Britain. And so yeah, you could 0:01:29.440 --> 0:01:32.960 pretty much say any kind of Jamaican dishes is good 0:01:33.040 --> 0:01:36.840 and has English roots to it these days. But if 0:01:36.880 --> 0:01:40.560 we're talking just traditional English or British, it's gonna be 0:01:41.560 --> 0:01:46.440 a nice beer battered cod filet and with some proper chips, 0:01:46.920 --> 0:01:51.240 some really nice pumfrey to crunchy French fries. What they 0:01:51.320 --> 0:01:53.760 do is put a malt vinegar on it with a 0:01:53.800 --> 0:01:58.440 squeeze of lemon juice on it. That is delectable. And 0:01:58.480 --> 0:02:01.800 then I also am a big fan of Shepherd's pie, 0:02:02.200 --> 0:02:04.920 and Shepherd's pie is a staple. It's more of an 0:02:04.920 --> 0:02:09.240 Irish Irish dish, but it's it's pretty common across the 0:02:09.280 --> 0:02:10.600 whole the whole UK. 0:02:11.360 --> 0:02:14.200 They do fish and chips very well over there, and 0:02:14.320 --> 0:02:16.400 I agree the malt vinegar is a great thing that 0:02:16.520 --> 0:02:19.079 just hasn't caught on for here for some reason, I 0:02:19.080 --> 0:02:22.639 would recommend staying away from the brown sauce. That's one 0:02:22.680 --> 0:02:26.320 thing that they use a lot of in the UK. Yeah, 0:02:26.360 --> 0:02:29.239 that is that is not good stuff. They also have 0:02:29.520 --> 0:02:31.520 very good you know you you refer to it as 0:02:31.520 --> 0:02:34.560 fish and chips. They refer to French fries as chips. 0:02:34.919 --> 0:02:40.520 Potato chips are crisps, and they have some spectacular crisps 0:02:40.840 --> 0:02:43.480 over there, Like they do potato chips better than we 0:02:43.520 --> 0:02:47.280 do for some reason. Uh, sticky toffee pudding one of 0:02:47.320 --> 0:02:48.240 the great desserts. 0:02:48.360 --> 0:02:49.880 Yeah, that's some good stuff. 0:02:50.160 --> 0:02:52.360 And believe it or not, bout like I love the 0:02:52.919 --> 0:02:55.840 you know, the the Oregon stuff. I love the blood 0:02:55.880 --> 0:02:59.480 pudding with a you know, full English breakfast. I like 0:02:59.520 --> 0:03:03.000 Hagis at Hagis in Scotland. It's actually pretty good. So 0:03:03.400 --> 0:03:07.799 you know that's but do not if you're in the UK, 0:03:07.960 --> 0:03:10.440 do not get a steak. They do not know how 0:03:10.480 --> 0:03:13.400 to butcher meat over there, and everyone I've ever seen 0:03:14.120 --> 0:03:17.639 order steak there, including myself, has regretted it. Just get 0:03:17.639 --> 0:03:19.560 a hamburger man, trust me on that one. 0:03:20.080 --> 0:03:22.960 Yeah, And that's one thing that they've adopted from us 0:03:22.960 --> 0:03:28.040 as Hamburgers are very popular in Great Britain and they 0:03:28.080 --> 0:03:32.799 have a place in England called the It has. It's 0:03:33.320 --> 0:03:35.960 it's a place that's down by the rail yards, but 0:03:36.040 --> 0:03:39.160 it's called the Dulceton Dip and it's a it's a 0:03:39.200 --> 0:03:43.840 double smashed cheeseburger, but they dip it in brown gravy. 0:03:44.760 --> 0:03:48.360 Oh good Lord, and and it is I made it, 0:03:48.640 --> 0:03:50.680 are recreated it here at home because I had to. 0:03:51.240 --> 0:03:54.680 It just looked too good. And it is everything that 0:03:54.760 --> 0:03:55.960 I could have hoped it would be. 0:03:56.440 --> 0:03:59.400 Oh no, as long as it's the UK's brown gravy 0:03:59.400 --> 0:04:02.040 and not there sauce, I'm good with that, man. 0:04:02.080 --> 0:04:07.120 Yeah, brown sauce, stay away. 0:04:05.800 --> 0:04:08.800 All right. So both the Open Championship this year is 0:04:08.800 --> 0:04:12.600 can be held at Royal Liverpool. It's located in the 0:04:12.680 --> 0:04:16.600 small town of Hoylake, which the course is sometimes affectionately 0:04:16.640 --> 0:04:20.039 known as Hoylake, which is due west of Liverpool on 0:04:20.120 --> 0:04:24.760 the Wirral Peninsula. It's a seaside links course and it 0:04:24.880 --> 0:04:27.640 is a true links course. Players will be able to 0:04:27.720 --> 0:04:30.440 land their approaches in front of the green and bounce 0:04:30.520 --> 0:04:34.839 the ball onto the putting surface. Wind will be a factor. 0:04:35.400 --> 0:04:37.640 The forecast is calling for wins in the twelve to 0:04:37.760 --> 0:04:41.560 fourteen mile an hour range most days, and there's a 0:04:41.560 --> 0:04:45.359 little bit of rain in the forecast every day, not 0:04:45.520 --> 0:04:49.840 too uncommon over there. This will be the thirteenth time 0:04:49.880 --> 0:04:52.280 the Open has been played at Royal Liverpool, but only 0:04:52.320 --> 0:04:56.760 the second since nineteen sixty seven. Last time twenty fourteen, 0:04:57.400 --> 0:05:01.240 Rory McElroy wins it at minus seven teen. Ricky Fowler 0:05:01.279 --> 0:05:05.280 and Sergio Garcia finished two shots back, and in two 0:05:05.320 --> 0:05:09.839 thousand and six Tiger Woods one at Hoylake minus eighteen 0:05:10.240 --> 0:05:12.240 was the winning score. He beat Chris de Marco by 0:05:12.240 --> 0:05:18.240 two shots and different conditions for those two Open championships 0:05:18.279 --> 0:05:22.120 bow if you'll recall, Tiger sort of famously kept the 0:05:22.200 --> 0:05:25.600 driver in the bag all week in two thousand and six. 0:05:25.680 --> 0:05:27.560 It was playing firm and fast. 0:05:27.760 --> 0:05:29.640 And stingers everywhere. 0:05:29.880 --> 0:05:33.120 Yep, the lowest stingers, that's right. And then in twenty 0:05:33.200 --> 0:05:36.800 fourteen the course had gotten some rain beforehand. It was 0:05:36.839 --> 0:05:40.640 a little more driver friendly that year. And this year 0:05:41.080 --> 0:05:43.640 I'm hearing that Hoylake is sort of in between those 0:05:43.680 --> 0:05:48.960 two extremes, so you know, not ridiculously firm and fast, 0:05:49.480 --> 0:05:52.719 but you know, you can't exactly just bomb it away 0:05:52.760 --> 0:05:55.080 at will either or you might wind up in a 0:05:55.120 --> 0:05:58.880 gorse bush. So it's gonna play it seven three hundred 0:05:58.880 --> 0:06:01.599 and eighty three yards and as a par seventy one. 0:06:01.960 --> 0:06:04.520 There's been one major change to the course. They basically 0:06:04.560 --> 0:06:07.840 flipped the par three seventeenth so that it faces the 0:06:07.880 --> 0:06:11.039 opposite direction that he used to face, and that brings 0:06:11.080 --> 0:06:15.160 water into playoff the tee and presents trouble left, right 0:06:15.560 --> 0:06:18.440 and long. So the seventeenth could be a little more 0:06:18.520 --> 0:06:22.000 dramatic than it was last time we saw it, all right, bo, 0:06:22.600 --> 0:06:25.599 It's worth noting that six of the last ten Open 0:06:25.680 --> 0:06:28.320 Championship winners have been top ten in the world ranking, 0:06:29.160 --> 0:06:34.720 and Rory McElroy is our betting favorite at minus excuse 0:06:34.760 --> 0:06:37.400 me a plus six point fifty. He was plus seven 0:06:37.520 --> 0:06:39.760 hundred a couple of days ago, but then he went 0:06:39.760 --> 0:06:42.800 out and won the Scottish Open, so you know, the 0:06:42.800 --> 0:06:46.560 odds come down a little bit. Then in twenty fourteen 0:06:46.680 --> 0:06:51.919 bow Rory won the British excuse me, the Open Championship 0:06:51.960 --> 0:06:56.080 and the PGA, his third and fourth major championships on 0:06:56.200 --> 0:06:58.520 top of the world. He had just turned twenty five 0:06:58.600 --> 0:07:01.960 years old. So I wanted to asked you in twenty fourteen, 0:07:02.160 --> 0:07:04.840 after Rory had won those two majors back to back, 0:07:05.400 --> 0:07:08.719 how many more majors would Rory have in his pocket 0:07:10.320 --> 0:07:13.520 before the British Open return to Hoylake in twenty twenty three, 0:07:13.560 --> 0:07:15.640 what would you have guessed. I think my over under 0:07:15.640 --> 0:07:17.040 would have been like five and a half. 0:07:18.480 --> 0:07:19.760 Yeah, I don't know if I would have been that 0:07:19.880 --> 0:07:23.280 high because majors are extremely difficult to come by, as 0:07:23.320 --> 0:07:26.280 we've found out that Rory doesn't have any since then, 0:07:26.880 --> 0:07:30.800 and so I mean I would have expected at least 0:07:30.800 --> 0:07:34.160 two or three more that would be a reasonable number. 0:07:34.320 --> 0:07:36.520 It's been a long time. It's been almost a decade. 0:07:36.960 --> 0:07:39.880 I know, Maze, it's crazy to think that Rory's now 0:07:39.920 --> 0:07:42.440 in his early thirties and it's still sitting on the 0:07:42.480 --> 0:07:46.560 same number. And I really will want to base this 0:07:46.800 --> 0:07:50.000 going back to two thousand and six when Tiger won. 0:07:50.120 --> 0:07:52.480 That was the first tournament he played in after the 0:07:52.520 --> 0:07:55.960 death of Earlwood's his father, and that was an emotional 0:07:56.000 --> 0:07:59.840 victory where he lapped the field. He absolutely obliterated everybody 0:08:00.160 --> 0:08:05.040 in true Tiger fashion. Rory was in a dogfight with 0:08:05.120 --> 0:08:08.640 a lot of great players in twenty fourteen, and I 0:08:08.680 --> 0:08:14.520 think that it's gonna take a meteoric performance like Tiger 0:08:15.000 --> 0:08:18.040 from Rory to repeat at Hoylake. 0:08:19.240 --> 0:08:21.400 Yeah, I mean, what do you think of that at 0:08:21.480 --> 0:08:25.679 these odds? I mean, like, we know Rory good form 0:08:25.760 --> 0:08:29.480 lately obviously, and you know he's he's had a couple 0:08:29.640 --> 0:08:33.720 mirror misses, played well at the US Open, coming off 0:08:33.720 --> 0:08:37.640 and win at the Scottish. We've seen him like at 0:08:37.679 --> 0:08:41.160 times this year be you know, get wayward all of 0:08:41.200 --> 0:08:44.240 a sudden with his driver and the wedge play has 0:08:44.280 --> 0:08:48.959 been really inconsistent. But one of the more creative shot 0:08:49.000 --> 0:08:53.240 makers in the game, and I think Link's style golf 0:08:53.360 --> 0:08:58.520 sort of helps him in that department. I don't know, 0:08:58.559 --> 0:08:59.920 how do you how do you feel about him at 0:09:00.240 --> 0:09:01.360 number plus six fifty? 0:09:02.160 --> 0:09:05.600 I have mixed emotions and because how can you bet 0:09:05.640 --> 0:09:10.360 against him with the way he just performed at scott 0:09:10.760 --> 0:09:13.880 At the Scottish that was that was incredible. It was 0:09:14.000 --> 0:09:17.080 it was that was vintage Rory, where the driver was 0:09:17.320 --> 0:09:20.640 just on point, the wedges were he was he was 0:09:20.640 --> 0:09:23.600 doing chopped down wedges, he was hitting pitching wedges over 0:09:23.600 --> 0:09:26.880 two hundred yards with the wind. He was riding the wind, 0:09:27.320 --> 0:09:29.920 working at left and right. That's Link style golf to 0:09:30.080 --> 0:09:33.880 a t. And there's the reason why he performed so 0:09:34.000 --> 0:09:38.720 well here last time at these odds at the same time, 0:09:38.920 --> 0:09:41.840 it's really short odds, and there's a lot of great players, 0:09:42.120 --> 0:09:44.600 a lot of great golfers that are just as good 0:09:44.640 --> 0:09:48.439 as Rory in this kind of event that are getting 0:09:48.520 --> 0:09:51.719 they're going to pay out a lot more. So I'm 0:09:51.800 --> 0:09:54.280 kind of mixed on it. I haven't decided. I'm kind 0:09:54.280 --> 0:09:57.000 of hoping that the Rory fervor kind of calms a 0:09:57.040 --> 0:09:59.960 bit before Thursday, but I'm not gonna hold my breath. 0:10:00.120 --> 0:10:02.880 I'm probably going to get a little bit of skin 0:10:03.000 --> 0:10:05.200 in the game for Rory because I love to root 0:10:05.240 --> 0:10:09.559 for him, but it's the odds aren't great now. 0:10:09.600 --> 0:10:11.920 The only other player in the field with odds shorter 0:10:12.080 --> 0:10:17.120 than ten to one are Scottie Scheffler. Is Scottie Scheffler. 0:10:17.600 --> 0:10:20.480 He's at plus seven hundred, comes in as the world 0:10:20.559 --> 0:10:26.720 number one, played well at in the Scottish Open, finished 0:10:26.760 --> 0:10:30.880 at minus ten five shots backer Rory. He was twenty 0:10:30.920 --> 0:10:33.760 first at Saint Andrews last year at the Open Championship, 0:10:33.760 --> 0:10:38.720 in eighth at Royal Saint George's the year before and yeah, 0:10:38.760 --> 0:10:42.440 so pretty good foreman, and showed his you know, links 0:10:42.520 --> 0:10:46.800 medal at North Barrack this past weekend. So what do 0:10:46.840 --> 0:10:51.080 you think about Scheffler at plus seven hundred, again. 0:10:50.840 --> 0:10:53.720 I don't think the odds are reflective of his chance 0:10:53.840 --> 0:10:56.280 to win. I kind of put him in more of 0:10:56.280 --> 0:10:59.960 that ten to twelve range myself if I'm I'm handicapped 0:11:00.400 --> 0:11:04.520 this tournament myself. Scheffler is playing at a B minus 0:11:04.520 --> 0:11:07.920 to C plus game for him, and of course that's 0:11:07.960 --> 0:11:10.400 still top five for the six tournaments in a row, 0:11:10.480 --> 0:11:12.840 top twelve for the last eighteen tournaments in a row. 0:11:13.280 --> 0:11:16.440 He's the best golfer in the world. The problem is 0:11:16.480 --> 0:11:19.760 he isn't winning. And if I'm going to bet single 0:11:19.880 --> 0:11:23.560 digit odds on a guy winning without a great track 0:11:23.640 --> 0:11:28.040 record on links courses, Scotty is amazing, but his links 0:11:28.120 --> 0:11:32.000 course history is not as good as traditional course history. 0:11:32.480 --> 0:11:35.720 So I'm going to I'm going to fade Scotti Scheffler 0:11:35.760 --> 0:11:38.600 at his current odds of plus seven hundred, just because 0:11:38.640 --> 0:11:42.080 I think it's too short for him compared to again, 0:11:42.160 --> 0:11:45.400 a number of golfers in this next tier that are 0:11:46.040 --> 0:11:47.600 just as likely to win, if not more. 0:11:48.920 --> 0:11:51.400 Let's talk about John Rahm for a second. Though he 0:11:51.559 --> 0:11:54.880 is at plus twelve hundred. He has played in six 0:11:55.040 --> 0:11:58.200 Open Championships and he has only had one top ten 0:11:58.480 --> 0:12:02.120 finish tying a Royal St. George's in twenty twenty one. 0:12:02.679 --> 0:12:06.600 He did finish eleventh at Royal Port Rush in twenty nineteen, 0:12:07.960 --> 0:12:11.440 but like he has not been in real peak form lately. 0:12:12.000 --> 0:12:15.280 In the spring he was tip top. I mean, rom 0:12:15.520 --> 0:12:19.800 just looked nearly unbeatable. Then not so much lately. So 0:12:19.840 --> 0:12:23.200 what do we think about him this week at Hoylak. 0:12:24.640 --> 0:12:26.920 I think they hit my number here because twelve was 0:12:27.840 --> 0:12:30.920 a I mean that's pretty short or pretty long for 0:12:31.200 --> 0:12:33.640 a guy of his caliber, number two golfer in the world, 0:12:33.880 --> 0:12:37.680 getting nearly twice the payout for a win over Scottie Scheffler. 0:12:39.120 --> 0:12:42.520 The forum is concerning his history on link style courses 0:12:42.640 --> 0:12:47.600 is concerning, but John Ram is John ram and I 0:12:47.640 --> 0:12:51.360 think what we might run into is trying to fade 0:12:51.400 --> 0:12:53.960 him as if he's like Rory, where they had kind 0:12:54.000 --> 0:12:56.760 of the same issues the last few months before Rory 0:12:56.800 --> 0:13:01.080 broke through. Rom is just one hot putter away from 0:13:01.200 --> 0:13:04.320 blowing the field away at any tournament he shows up 0:13:04.400 --> 0:13:09.600 to and a double digit John Rombett I think is perfect. 0:13:11.320 --> 0:13:14.320 Yeah, you hope that putter gets hot, and we know 0:13:14.480 --> 0:13:19.280 that the putting is not always that challenging it opens, 0:13:20.160 --> 0:13:22.320 you're gonna get slower greens then you're used on the 0:13:22.320 --> 0:13:25.360 PGA tour. They are not the lightning fast greens we 0:13:25.400 --> 0:13:29.040 get over here in the States. And you know there's 0:13:29.400 --> 0:13:33.080 some undulation. You'll get the occasional putts where you have 0:13:33.080 --> 0:13:34.599 to deal with a mound in front of you or 0:13:34.679 --> 0:13:38.040 something like that. But you know, if you're within reasonable 0:13:38.080 --> 0:13:40.160 distance of the whole, you're usually going to have a 0:13:40.240 --> 0:13:43.520 relatively flat putt on a lot of these greens. 0:13:43.559 --> 0:13:46.280 So a lot of it comes down to three putt 0:13:46.320 --> 0:13:49.560 avoidance because the size of the green complexes is massive 0:13:49.960 --> 0:13:53.360 tree and so lag putting is very important and is 0:13:53.520 --> 0:13:56.240 as much as we've kind of harped on rom for 0:13:56.320 --> 0:14:01.920 not putting well recently, he's incredible latter incredible lag putter, 0:14:02.440 --> 0:14:06.240 and it's it seems like he struggles on faster greens 0:14:06.240 --> 0:14:09.680 and that won't be the case here. So I really 0:14:09.880 --> 0:14:12.760 do have high hopes for John Rahm in this tournament, 0:14:12.880 --> 0:14:17.920 despite the red flags against him, namely his shot shape. 0:14:17.960 --> 0:14:20.440 His ball flight is a higher ball flight, and that's 0:14:20.480 --> 0:14:23.360 the same thing working against Scotty Scheffler in this tournament 0:14:23.840 --> 0:14:29.480 is he has to overcome his standard stock shot by 0:14:29.680 --> 0:14:33.000 being creative like Rory was that that was the kicker. 0:14:33.080 --> 0:14:35.680 Is Rory's one of the highest ball hitters out there, 0:14:36.120 --> 0:14:38.080 but you saw him flight the ball down when he 0:14:38.120 --> 0:14:41.000 had to and he was great at it. We haven't 0:14:41.000 --> 0:14:44.200 seen Scotty or John Rom do that effectively at an 0:14:44.200 --> 0:14:48.200 Open championship before, so that that'll be an interesting tidbit 0:14:48.320 --> 0:14:51.480 to look for, is can they flight the ball with 0:14:51.560 --> 0:14:53.080 the precision that Rory does? 0:14:53.800 --> 0:14:56.240 Yeah, wind does. Wind is not your friend if you 0:14:56.280 --> 0:14:59.080 are a high ball hitter and you know, even though 0:14:59.120 --> 0:15:01.760 the wind is not going to be howling this week, 0:15:02.400 --> 0:15:06.360 according to the forecast, there will be wind, So you know, 0:15:06.400 --> 0:15:09.160 being able to hit it at a lower trajectory's key. 0:15:09.720 --> 0:15:12.000 As you said, Bo, we've seen Rory do that. Whether 0:15:12.280 --> 0:15:14.480 Rom and Scotty can do it as a different story. 0:15:14.840 --> 0:15:17.400 All right, Before we continue, I just went to implore 0:15:17.480 --> 0:15:21.160 all of you to download the free Betting Pros app 0:15:21.280 --> 0:15:26.200 for iOS or Android. You can follow experts, top rated betters, 0:15:26.360 --> 0:15:30.600 and betters on hot streaks to get instant notifications when 0:15:30.840 --> 0:15:34.360 new bets are placed. You can also customize your notifications 0:15:34.400 --> 0:15:36.880 by sports, so you only receive alerts for bets that 0:15:37.000 --> 0:15:40.760 interest you. And you can even limit the alerts you 0:15:40.880 --> 0:15:45.600 get to only the historically ROI positive markets of the 0:15:45.600 --> 0:15:48.880 betters you follow. To take advantage of these features and more, 0:15:49.040 --> 0:15:52.520 download the Betting Pros app by visiting Bettingpros dot com, 0:15:52.560 --> 0:15:56.840 slash apps, or by searching for Betting Pros in the 0:15:56.880 --> 0:16:01.520 app store. All right, bo, you liked Cameron Smith at 0:16:01.520 --> 0:16:04.120 the US Open, and that was a very astute call. 0:16:04.200 --> 0:16:06.880 He had a great week at the LA Country Club. 0:16:07.320 --> 0:16:13.120 Cam is the defending Open champion, the world champion golfer, 0:16:13.200 --> 0:16:16.920 having won at Saint Andrew's last year. The biggest weakness 0:16:16.920 --> 0:16:21.920 in his game driving accuracy, and that problem should be 0:16:22.360 --> 0:16:27.080 minimized somewhat on a roomy Links course. How do you 0:16:27.120 --> 0:16:29.920 feel about Cam at plus sixteen hundred this week? 0:16:31.440 --> 0:16:35.560 He's my favorite. He's very simply put, he's the favorite. 0:16:36.600 --> 0:16:40.240 His style of play is perfectly catered for this type 0:16:40.280 --> 0:16:43.600 of event, which is why he won last year pretty convincingly. 0:16:44.880 --> 0:16:48.200 It's a shot maker's course. It's a course that demands creativity, 0:16:48.400 --> 0:16:54.600 planning and an immaculate short game. Well that's Cam Smith personified. 0:16:55.000 --> 0:16:57.920 He's as lethal of a golfer in the world. Inside 0:16:57.920 --> 0:17:00.880 of one hundred and fifty yards through the green. If 0:17:00.880 --> 0:17:04.239 there's a pitching wedge or a sand wedge or a 0:17:04.320 --> 0:17:07.000 putter in this guy's hand, he is the best in 0:17:07.040 --> 0:17:11.359 the world. So I'm going to say Cameron Smith has 0:17:11.400 --> 0:17:13.760 a very good chance of going back to back this year, 0:17:14.320 --> 0:17:17.520 and at sixteen to one, which is up from fourteen 0:17:17.560 --> 0:17:21.440 to one, I will keep hitting that button because the mustachioed, 0:17:21.760 --> 0:17:23.760 mulleted ossi is for real. 0:17:25.000 --> 0:17:28.119 Yeah, assuming he can keep those drives out of you know, 0:17:28.240 --> 0:17:34.200 gorse bushes and pot bonkers. I agree, It's just this. 0:17:35.000 --> 0:17:38.359 He is built for links golf and I like him 0:17:38.400 --> 0:17:42.960 a lot this week too. Brooks Koepka has fared well 0:17:43.000 --> 0:17:47.280 in strokes gained metrics at the British Open lately. He 0:17:47.359 --> 0:17:50.199 seems to have an affinity for links golf bo and 0:17:50.240 --> 0:17:52.760 he's been a big factor in majors this year and 0:17:52.840 --> 0:17:55.359 in recent years of course. Do you like him at 0:17:55.359 --> 0:17:57.800 plus two thousand. 0:17:57.800 --> 0:18:01.840 It's it's a major, right, Yes, I'm betting on Brookspect. 0:18:04.200 --> 0:18:07.119 The dude wins at a forty percent clip in majors, 0:18:07.160 --> 0:18:11.879 so he's got a low piercing ballflight which is unique 0:18:11.880 --> 0:18:14.800 to him and Tiger Woods and a handful of other golfers. 0:18:15.080 --> 0:18:18.160 It's been it's been said around golfing circles that Brooks 0:18:18.240 --> 0:18:21.679 Koepka just has a different ballflight that can't be recreated 0:18:21.720 --> 0:18:26.400 by most human golfers. And it's no mystery that he's 0:18:26.440 --> 0:18:30.240 done well in an Open Championship. It's no mystery he's 0:18:30.240 --> 0:18:33.320 done well in majors in general. He is a gamer. 0:18:33.400 --> 0:18:36.880 He rises to the occasion. Pressure does not affect him. 0:18:37.520 --> 0:18:40.720 That's that's all the things you look for. And a 0:18:40.840 --> 0:18:45.119 nice twenty to one line, which is kind of I 0:18:45.119 --> 0:18:48.240 can see a little live discount built in there where 0:18:48.280 --> 0:18:50.439 we're getting a little softer line because he's not on 0:18:50.480 --> 0:18:53.720 the PGA Tour. I love it. I mean, we've been 0:18:53.760 --> 0:18:56.760 talking about this is the fourth major. We've talked about 0:18:56.760 --> 0:19:00.000 the live discount and the betting lines, they all these. 0:19:00.080 --> 0:19:02.560 The golfers are just as good as they were a 0:19:02.680 --> 0:19:05.040 year and a half ago before they left the BJ Tour, 0:19:05.760 --> 0:19:09.800 and for some reason they're getting less respect from the 0:19:09.800 --> 0:19:11.719 casinos now. 0:19:11.760 --> 0:19:16.760 A couple of the sharp golf punters who I follow 0:19:16.840 --> 0:19:19.720 are keen on Victor Hoblin this week at plus two 0:19:19.760 --> 0:19:25.920 thousand and his previous Open Championship formbo tied for fourth 0:19:26.000 --> 0:19:28.679 at St Andrews in twenty twenty two, tied for twelfth 0:19:28.760 --> 0:19:32.560 at Royal Saint George's in twenty twenty one. You shook 0:19:32.560 --> 0:19:34.880 your head? Are you not as into Hoblin this week? 0:19:36.320 --> 0:19:39.080 He's He's not the kind of golfer I'm looking for. 0:19:39.200 --> 0:19:42.200 At those odds, I had Victor Peg just twenty five 0:19:42.240 --> 0:19:45.760 to thirty to one. He's just too short. His ballflight 0:19:45.840 --> 0:19:50.040 is very high, left to right soft. If there's any 0:19:50.080 --> 0:19:52.359 wind at all in this tournament, Victor is gonna be 0:19:52.480 --> 0:19:58.439 in the miscut vicinity because his short game, although improved, 0:19:59.000 --> 0:20:01.080 is definitely still the weakness of his game. 0:20:01.680 --> 0:20:06.880 Yeah all not known for sterling, not known for sterling 0:20:06.920 --> 0:20:07.600 bunker play. 0:20:08.680 --> 0:20:11.119 As good as a ball striker as he is, he 0:20:11.200 --> 0:20:15.960 will contend if the condition stayed tame. But it's England. 0:20:16.400 --> 0:20:19.520 It's the weather, especially Liverpool, England on the west coast 0:20:19.560 --> 0:20:22.800 of England. It's the weather can change in an instant 0:20:23.359 --> 0:20:26.000 and that twelve minle hour win could turn into thirty 0:20:26.119 --> 0:20:29.040 in just a matter of a half hour, and I 0:20:29.080 --> 0:20:31.879 think if that happens, Victor Hovlin is going to be 0:20:32.359 --> 0:20:34.480 in dire straits now. 0:20:34.560 --> 0:20:38.560 Ricky Foller is plus twenty two hundred. He finished tied 0:20:38.640 --> 0:20:42.840 for second behind Rory Back at Hoylake in twenty twenty 0:20:42.880 --> 0:20:47.720 four or excuse me twenty fourteen, and yeah, I mean 0:20:48.640 --> 0:20:53.080 Fowler was sitting at plus eighteen hundred odds just a 0:20:53.119 --> 0:20:56.720 few days ago. Then he closed with a four over 0:20:56.880 --> 0:21:01.480 par seventy four at the Scottish Open and his odds 0:21:01.520 --> 0:21:04.560 balloon to plus twenty two hundred. So a little extra 0:21:04.720 --> 0:21:10.159 value there about is that. Yeah, so you're intrigued, you 0:21:10.240 --> 0:21:11.960 might be buying the dip on Ricky. 0:21:12.880 --> 0:21:15.679 I'm more than intrigued. I was more than willing to 0:21:15.720 --> 0:21:18.880 bet him at eighteen and now I'm ecstatic to bet 0:21:18.960 --> 0:21:22.679 him at twenty two. Again, low ballflight, can shape the 0:21:22.680 --> 0:21:26.679 ball right to left, left to right, an immaculate approach player. 0:21:26.760 --> 0:21:31.960 His putting, his lag putting specifically is spot on. This 0:21:32.000 --> 0:21:35.360 is exactly who you're looking for in this range and 0:21:35.480 --> 0:21:38.040 his course history really is just icing on the cake. 0:21:39.080 --> 0:21:44.200 Let's talk about a group at plus twenty two hundred. 0:21:44.280 --> 0:21:51.479 Also Xander Schoffley, Tyrrell Hatton, Patrick Cantlay, Tommy Fleetwood all right, 0:21:51.560 --> 0:21:56.280 can't lay. Terrific player. Not the best track record recently 0:21:56.320 --> 0:22:00.840 in Open championships. Xander Schoffley in five previous Open Championships 0:22:01.440 --> 0:22:04.560 twenty six they're better four times, highlighted by a tie 0:22:04.600 --> 0:22:09.679 for second at Carnoustie in twenty eighteen. So of Shoffley, Hatton, 0:22:09.840 --> 0:22:13.800 can't lay Fleetwood, Are any of these guys appealing to you? Bo? 0:22:15.240 --> 0:22:18.000 All of them except for Can'tley are. This is a 0:22:18.200 --> 0:22:23.080 loaded part of the betting slip. This is there. I 0:22:23.080 --> 0:22:25.439 don't love Can't Lay on any Link style course or 0:22:25.480 --> 0:22:28.879 Open championship. His game just doesn't fit it. He's great, 0:22:29.080 --> 0:22:32.439 he's an outstanding golfer, but this is just it flies 0:22:32.480 --> 0:22:34.560 in the face of his style, and we've seen that 0:22:34.560 --> 0:22:40.040 bear out in the results. But Fleetwood, Englishman, Tyrol Hatton Englishman, 0:22:40.400 --> 0:22:45.200 both with perfect game setups for this exact event. Xander 0:22:45.320 --> 0:22:47.680 is kind of a throwback. He's kind of that same 0:22:47.760 --> 0:22:51.920 mold of golfer, just from southern California. He just happens 0:22:51.960 --> 0:22:55.240 to have a game that is similar to Fleetwood and Hatton. 0:22:55.560 --> 0:22:59.080 So I really like him too. But Tyroll Hatton, I 0:22:59.160 --> 0:23:01.800 just have this weird feeling that Terrel Hatton is going 0:23:01.840 --> 0:23:06.320 to blow his top, but in a good way. I 0:23:06.359 --> 0:23:10.320 think he's because his third round, his third round at 0:23:10.359 --> 0:23:13.640 the Scottish was incredible and you saw him hit some 0:23:13.800 --> 0:23:18.399 really amazing shots and his Sunday wasn't good enough to 0:23:18.400 --> 0:23:20.439 push through for the wind. But he was knocking on 0:23:20.520 --> 0:23:23.680 the door this last week and I think that he's 0:23:23.840 --> 0:23:26.560 just right there on the doorstep of winning a major. 0:23:27.320 --> 0:23:29.400 Yeah, you said blow his top in a good way. 0:23:29.440 --> 0:23:32.000 We've seen Yrol Hatton blow his top in not such 0:23:32.040 --> 0:23:35.400 good ways many times before. That's what that's my hang 0:23:35.480 --> 0:23:37.720 up with him, though. I don't know if I can 0:23:37.800 --> 0:23:41.000 take him in a major with his demeanor. He's just 0:23:41.119 --> 0:23:44.320 too easily rattled, it seems like. 0:23:44.600 --> 0:23:46.760 So it's usually with himself. 0:23:47.720 --> 0:23:52.200 Yeah he is, uh, you know, he'll, he'll. He's always 0:23:52.240 --> 0:23:55.320 second guessing the role of Potts. I would not want 0:23:55.320 --> 0:23:59.360 to be Yroll Hatton's caddy. Put it that way. One 0:23:59.400 --> 0:24:03.080 more guid to my real quick bo Jordan speF plus 0:24:03.119 --> 0:24:05.879 three thousand has not been in great form as of light, 0:24:05.960 --> 0:24:07.840 and missed the cut at the Scottish Open, which you 0:24:07.880 --> 0:24:10.840