WEBVTT - FINAL NFL WEEK 7 Bets: Bucs-Panthers, Packers-Lions and more

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to Sharper Square presented by PolyMarket. We are part

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<v Speaker 1>of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that

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<v Speaker 1>makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention.

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<v Speaker 1>I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by

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<v Speaker 1>my co-host, my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional vetter,

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<v Speaker 1>Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.

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<v Speaker 2>Chad, it is October 25th and the 76ers. have more

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<v Speaker 2>wins with three than the Philadelphia Eagles do.

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<v Speaker 1>Wow. Well, look, there was that tweet that was going around,

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<v Speaker 1>I think, first or second weekend of October, where the

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<v Speaker 1>Carolina Hurricanes tweeted out that we have more wins in

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<v Speaker 1>Philly in the past two weeks than the Eagles, the Phillies,

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<v Speaker 1>and the Flyers combined. So the fact the Sixers are

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<v Speaker 1>starting off hot and Jalen Brown is spicy is has

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<v Speaker 1>to make you feel a little bit upbeat in the

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<v Speaker 1>city of brotherly love.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I've seen it, right? It's minuscule. It's exciting. I

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<v Speaker 2>still can't believe we have LeBron James. It's pretty surreal. But, yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>I still have hope for the Eagles. I'm not going

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<v Speaker 2>to lie. I still have some hope because our division

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<v Speaker 2>is so terrible. But, yeah, thank God for the Sixers

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<v Speaker 2>because you're right. It was dark days right now in

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<v Speaker 2>Philadelphia sports.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank freaking God. Simon, lines are moving. Quarterbacks are being

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<v Speaker 1>ruled in. Quarterbacks are being ruled out. We've got games

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<v Speaker 1>we agree on. We've got games we don't. That's the

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<v Speaker 1>beauty of this process. We've got to find five that

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<v Speaker 1>we like together. We've got wise guys whispering in our

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<v Speaker 1>ears decisions to make. This is our Sunday morning NFL

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<v Speaker 1>Week 7 show. Simon and I will nail down our

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<v Speaker 1>final five picks for our $ 25, 000 pro football pick-em contest.

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<v Speaker 1>First game on the board, Simon, a reminder to everybody,

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<v Speaker 1>these contest lines are dynamic. You can choose any time

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<v Speaker 1>beginning Tuesday. But if you lock in lines on Tuesday

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<v Speaker 1>and you want to make changes on Sunday, you got

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<v Speaker 1>to choose whatever lines are available at the time. Simon

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<v Speaker 1>and I locked in lines after the show on Thursday.

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<v Speaker 1>We're going to try to figure out, do we like

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<v Speaker 1>the value we got? On these games, are there games

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<v Speaker 1>that are creeping up higher in our priority list right

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<v Speaker 1>now that are going to make us wipe the whole

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<v Speaker 1>slate clean? First game, Simon, Miami, plus four and a

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<v Speaker 1>half on Thursday. Now three and a half in the contest.

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<v Speaker 1>They're at the New York Jets. We know it's ugly.

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<v Speaker 1>We've liked it all week. We committed to it. Are

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<v Speaker 1>we still there?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, two really bad teams. We've talked about this, that

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<v Speaker 2>when you have two really bad teams and public perception

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<v Speaker 2>is always going to be different where I don't think

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<v Speaker 2>they view the Jets as that bad of a team,

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<v Speaker 2>especially the fact that because they covered last week and

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<v Speaker 2>that probably dictated a lot of why the public sentiment

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<v Speaker 2>was so heavily focused on the Jets. But I think

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<v Speaker 2>we were dug in right away that Miami was going

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<v Speaker 2>to be the side and especially four and a half.

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<v Speaker 2>That was... Way, way too high. Three and a half

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<v Speaker 2>makes more sense. If it gets down to three, I

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<v Speaker 2>wouldn't be shocked either. It's just the same Miami number,

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<v Speaker 2>a Miami spot. And we talk all the time, when

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<v Speaker 2>you have two bad teams, especially in a divisional game,

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<v Speaker 2>you kind of can throw it all out the window

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<v Speaker 2>and just expect a close, gross game. And that's what

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<v Speaker 2>we expect here, right? It's going to be a team

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<v Speaker 2>in Miami that we've seen this year, right? They're either

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<v Speaker 2>three and out, or they can drive the field and

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<v Speaker 2>run the ball down your throat. Miami is a very

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<v Speaker 2>bizarre team, especially this season. And The fact they're coming

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<v Speaker 2>off a bye week facing a team that's coming off

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<v Speaker 2>a really tough road game in the Jets, that was

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<v Speaker 2>no push-around game. They played New England in a really

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<v Speaker 2>tough game, and now they're at home against a team

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<v Speaker 2>that's well-rested. Unfortunate it's moved. I hope people listen to

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<v Speaker 2>us on Thursday's show and grab the number, but I'd

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<v Speaker 2>still play the 3.5. There's not really that big of

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<v Speaker 2>a difference between 4.5 and 3.5, but obviously we feel

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<v Speaker 2>much better having 4.5 in our contest.

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<v Speaker 1>Big was called a reverse line move in betting jargon.

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<v Speaker 1>which basically means you're seeing a lot of the tickets,

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of the public come in on the New

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<v Speaker 1>York Jets. That's still the case. Well over 50% of

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<v Speaker 1>the tickets coming in on the Jets, but the line

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<v Speaker 1>is still moving in Miami's direction. That is a key

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<v Speaker 1>indicator that the professional bettors have been on the Miami

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<v Speaker 1>Dolphins as have Simon and I all week. It's why

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<v Speaker 1>the line has moved from four and a half down

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<v Speaker 1>to three and a half. It's going to be a

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<v Speaker 1>hard decision because it's such a good line. If we

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<v Speaker 1>want to revamp our lineup, we're going to lose that

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<v Speaker 1>line because it has reflected the move by the professionals.

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<v Speaker 1>Tampa Bay Buccaneers plus three and a half as of

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<v Speaker 1>Thursday in the contest at Carolina. This was Simon Says

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<v Speaker 1>when the number was three and a half. The contest

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<v Speaker 1>line is now two and a half. It has moved

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<v Speaker 1>in that direction because of money, partially because Baker Mayfield

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<v Speaker 1>is playing again. Emeka Ibuka, who would be his top receiver,

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<v Speaker 1>is not. It's actually a very interesting spot for our

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<v Speaker 1>favorite team, the Carolina Panthers, who we have loved betting

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<v Speaker 1>as underdogs. They're favorites for the second week in a row.

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<v Speaker 1>Bryce Young continues to be ascendant. If you look at

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<v Speaker 1>his stats, Simon, against the Blitz, which is what the

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<v Speaker 1>Bucs like to do more than anything else, top five

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<v Speaker 1>in the Whatever the Bucs can do defensively plays to

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<v Speaker 1>the strength of Bryce Young. And the Panthers D has

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<v Speaker 1>quietly become very good against the run, which is kind

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<v Speaker 1>of what the Bucs have leaned into and how they've

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<v Speaker 1>been competitive since Baker's been out. It's a two and

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<v Speaker 1>a half in the contest. If we wipe the slate clean,

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<v Speaker 1>we're not, we're not getting the field goal anymore on

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<v Speaker 1>this game.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah. Yeah. This is a number we played really because

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<v Speaker 2>we wanted to get ahead of the Baker movement, obviously.

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<v Speaker 2>Even when I was giving this out, I really wasn't

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<v Speaker 2>sure he was going to come back just because the

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<v Speaker 2>way they talked about his injury, I thought they were

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<v Speaker 2>going to push it back another week. Obviously, it's great

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<v Speaker 2>that Baker's back. We've talked all the time. Baker, when

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<v Speaker 2>he's good, he's really good. He's not been that this year.

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<v Speaker 2>If you're listening to this and you can only get

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<v Speaker 2>to two and a half, I wouldn't bet it, honestly.

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<v Speaker 2>Like to me, this is, you got the three and

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<v Speaker 2>a half, you got the three. That's where we want

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<v Speaker 2>to be with Baker right now, because before his injury,

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, we, we read those stats every show. What

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<v Speaker 2>was he over 10 and his last 10 against the spread.

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<v Speaker 2>He's a quarterback that's consistently overrated by the general public,

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<v Speaker 2>us included, because I mean, we can never get out

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<v Speaker 2>of our mind. He went to Seattle and put up

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<v Speaker 2>like 30 points last year, was in MVP talks early September,

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<v Speaker 2>early October. And then it just has fallen off the

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<v Speaker 2>cliff since then. So that's, That to me is the

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<v Speaker 2>back of my mind here where are we still inflating

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<v Speaker 2>a little bit of this Baker number? So totally get

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<v Speaker 2>it if you're not with us on this one. But

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<v Speaker 2>if you already bet the three and a half, I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>how do you not feel great? You have a great

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<v Speaker 2>number in a divisional matchup that should be a very

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<v Speaker 2>close game. So I'm happy to keep this one in.

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<v Speaker 2>It's just I expect this to be a favorable game

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<v Speaker 2>with the possibility of the Bucs. They have the ball last.

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<v Speaker 2>They could easily drive the field Baker and win this game. So, yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>I'm happy we got the plus three and a half.

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<v Speaker 2>It's another unfortunate move where it's moved so much. If

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<v Speaker 2>you're listening to the show, you can put your picks

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<v Speaker 2>in yet. I would not, would not put the two

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<v Speaker 2>and a half in on the books.

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<v Speaker 1>Would you play the Panthers at two and a half

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<v Speaker 1>on the flip side? Cause you're getting it under three.

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<v Speaker 2>I wouldn't just cause my model has this at one

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<v Speaker 2>and a half. So technically you're still getting a Baker, good,

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<v Speaker 2>a good Baker line here. But yeah, I just, I

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<v Speaker 2>think my mentality here is just, I don't want to

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<v Speaker 2>take that risk with Baker. I just think he's just,

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<v Speaker 2>he's not right. I think you feel the same way.

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<v Speaker 2>There's just, There's something off this season. And hopefully it's

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<v Speaker 2>been fixed, right? We always talk about what these quarterbacks say.

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<v Speaker 2>Sitting back while you're hurt and watching the offense play

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<v Speaker 2>out and your team play out is just great for

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<v Speaker 2>these guys mentally. Like, they just look at the field

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<v Speaker 2>differently when they come back. So, hopefully that's true for

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<v Speaker 2>Baker here because, honestly, we're grasping our straws here. Like,

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<v Speaker 2>he looks so bad. They lost so many games here

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<v Speaker 2>they should have won where this kid, this undrafted rookie

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<v Speaker 2>came in and went to Dallas and won. And last

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<v Speaker 2>week could have beat Pittsburgh. He's got to be feeling

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<v Speaker 2>that a little bit too. That's why he's rushing back

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<v Speaker 2>as well, I think. For us, it's really about the number.

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<v Speaker 2>It's great, great value at plus 3.5.

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<v Speaker 1>Cincinnati at Baltimore. Lamar Jackson is out. Snoop Huntley is

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<v Speaker 1>in again. Cincinnati on Thursday. This game has bounced around

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<v Speaker 1>like crazy. First of all, I really hope people listen

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<v Speaker 1>to the Sunday night shows because we both talked about

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<v Speaker 1>Cincinnati at plus 3.5 on Sunday night. as like being

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<v Speaker 1>way off and the line was moving while we were

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<v Speaker 1>on the air. It got down to Cincinnati minus one

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<v Speaker 1>and a half yesterday. Now it's at Cincinnati minus two

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<v Speaker 1>and a half. So we basically got a six point

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<v Speaker 1>swing since the official Lamar Jackson news. Look, right. And

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<v Speaker 1>it's at two and a half in the contest. We

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<v Speaker 1>got it at one and a half. I would, if

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<v Speaker 1>not for the other numbers, I'd want to be out

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<v Speaker 1>of the Cincinnati Bengals business. I'll be honest. Like I'd

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<v Speaker 1>love to take this one out. I'm hesitant because I

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<v Speaker 1>liked the numbers we got on Miami and Tampa Bay.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah. I feel the same way you do, right? That

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<v Speaker 2>this is obviously a line that's been bet into all week.

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<v Speaker 2>People have just been hammering Cincinnati. The books really did

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<v Speaker 2>get called their pants down here. They really were banking

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<v Speaker 2>on Lamar where, um, We talk all the time. I'm

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<v Speaker 2>having a tough time with these guys in sports media

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<v Speaker 2>who are involved in these ridiculous it's because yeah it

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<v Speaker 2>is and it's like i tried to get too much

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<v Speaker 2>into it because i know how mad the general public

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<v Speaker 2>is about it as well but um the lamar stuff

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<v Speaker 2>has been really tricky and now you're you have fans

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<v Speaker 2>not turning on but bringing up the contract situation the

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<v Speaker 2>fact that this is lamar's last year of his contract

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<v Speaker 2>that he is sitting out games right now and Is

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<v Speaker 2>it for real or is he really hurt? I like

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<v Speaker 2>to believe Lamar is truly hurt. And this is not

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<v Speaker 2>anything to do with this contract. When you said it's

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<v Speaker 2>a high ankle sprain, that is a big deal for

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<v Speaker 2>someone like him that needs to use their mobility. So

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<v Speaker 2>for this game right here, I think Chad's right in

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<v Speaker 2>his sense of we're both weary on it because it

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<v Speaker 2>just feels so easy. You can still get the Bengals

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<v Speaker 2>under three, which is shocking to me. It's just they're

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<v Speaker 2>coming off a bye. They're the healthier team. this is

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<v Speaker 2>really putting a lot of face in Jesse Minter in

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<v Speaker 2>this defense, right? That's where you're banking on the Ravens.

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<v Speaker 2>You're saying they're going to shut down Joe Burrow and

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<v Speaker 2>Stoop could keep this game pretty close. So I'm like, yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>I'm shocked at this line. Obviously we're playing today. We would,

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<v Speaker 2>neither of us would be playing Cincinnati at minus three.

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<v Speaker 2>So you're right. It's all about the line value. I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>I was going to text you at one point, they

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<v Speaker 2>had gotten to plus one and a half on midway

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<v Speaker 2>through Friday. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>I was shocked.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah. The books were so sure Lamar was going to play.

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<v Speaker 2>So very bizarre. Everyone's kind of getting fed misinformation here. And, um,

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<v Speaker 2>Senior right now, like we said, I'm still on Cincy.

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<v Speaker 2>I bet Cincy. I've been betting them all week, so

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<v Speaker 2>I'm invested in it. So it's going to be tough

0:11:17.320 --> 0:11:19.400
<v Speaker 2>to take it out. But if you came in here

0:11:19.520 --> 0:11:20.760
<v Speaker 2>today and you were just like, no, this is the

0:11:20.800 --> 0:11:22.740
<v Speaker 2>trap line of the week. We're getting out of this one.

0:11:23.340 --> 0:11:24.900
<v Speaker 2>I just think we're both in the same mentality of

0:11:25.400 --> 0:11:27.960
<v Speaker 2>you might lose on the three. They might not cover

0:11:28.000 --> 0:11:29.559
<v Speaker 2>the three, but I feel like we're at a pretty

0:11:29.580 --> 0:11:30.880
<v Speaker 2>good number at the minus one and a half.

0:11:31.500 --> 0:11:39.370
<v Speaker 1>Look, the conversation around injuries has gotten so idiotic. You've

0:11:39.410 --> 0:11:43.990
<v Speaker 1>got reporters out there saying, Zach Charbonnet for the Seahawks

0:11:44.590 --> 0:11:47.810
<v Speaker 1>is going to come back. And an hour later, he's

0:11:47.890 --> 0:11:51.739
<v Speaker 1>ruled out. You've got reporters going on air talking about

0:11:51.800 --> 0:11:55.400
<v Speaker 1>very complicated injuries that Lamar Jackson has. And then Lamar

0:11:55.420 --> 0:11:59.020
<v Speaker 1>Jackson in his press conference being fed that information to

0:11:59.080 --> 0:12:02.880
<v Speaker 1>confirm what the report was. And Lamar's like, I don't

0:12:02.900 --> 0:12:05.290
<v Speaker 1>know what that guy's talking about. All I've been told

0:12:05.350 --> 0:12:08.689
<v Speaker 1>is I have a high ankle sprain. So- To me,

0:12:08.850 --> 0:12:12.370
<v Speaker 1>at this point, honest to God, I don't say this

0:12:12.429 --> 0:12:17.550
<v Speaker 1>as a promotion. There are people in the Discord, readthenumber.com,

0:12:17.570 --> 0:12:20.189
<v Speaker 1>sign up for the Discord, who are getting information into

0:12:20.210 --> 0:12:23.390
<v Speaker 1>the Discord that is more accurate and faster than what

0:12:23.410 --> 0:12:25.930
<v Speaker 1>I'm seeing from the people who are supposed to be

0:12:25.950 --> 0:12:31.330
<v Speaker 1>the newsbreakers. It's kind of ridiculous how off target so

0:12:31.390 --> 0:12:34.309
<v Speaker 1>much of this information is. You can't trust anything until

0:12:35.730 --> 0:12:40.300
<v Speaker 1>it's actually announced by the team Cincinnati. It's going to

0:12:40.320 --> 0:12:44.700
<v Speaker 1>be a tough one. Simon, it's time for our Polymarket

0:12:45.260 --> 0:12:48.880
<v Speaker 1>closing time. Trade of the week. I'm going to own

0:12:48.920 --> 0:12:51.660
<v Speaker 1>this one. I don't think you love it, but I

0:12:51.700 --> 0:12:53.490
<v Speaker 1>think we had a hard time coming to a consensus.

0:12:53.570 --> 0:12:55.910
<v Speaker 1>It's like low on your board. It's creeping up my board.

0:12:56.990 --> 0:13:01.970
<v Speaker 1>The Minnesota Vikings trading at 52% at minus six and

0:13:01.990 --> 0:13:07.600
<v Speaker 1>a half on Polymarket. I've been trying to avoid betting

0:13:07.620 --> 0:13:14.670
<v Speaker 1>this all week. Because I feel like the Vikings are

0:13:14.690 --> 0:13:17.949
<v Speaker 1>a team we have to get ahead of. Kyler Murray

0:13:18.809 --> 0:13:22.160
<v Speaker 1>was struggling in training camp, won the job, got injured

0:13:22.179 --> 0:13:26.980
<v Speaker 1>right away. Then he was out, came back, struggled a

0:13:27.000 --> 0:13:30.560
<v Speaker 1>little bit, got a little bit better. He's obviously getting

0:13:30.620 --> 0:13:33.200
<v Speaker 1>better in the Kevin O'Connell offense. We believe in Kevin

0:13:33.240 --> 0:13:39.100
<v Speaker 1>O'Connell's ability to coach up quarterbacks. Now he's been out

0:13:39.140 --> 0:13:40.860
<v Speaker 1>for another week because of the bye. They had a

0:13:40.900 --> 0:13:43.079
<v Speaker 1>bye week, so we've been resting again, learning more about

0:13:43.120 --> 0:13:46.079
<v Speaker 1>the offense. Justin Jefferson is back. And then this defense

0:13:46.140 --> 0:13:49.380
<v Speaker 1>is ridiculous any way you look at it. And Daniel Jones,

0:13:49.420 --> 0:13:51.120
<v Speaker 1>forget about all the noise around the Colts right now

0:13:51.740 --> 0:13:53.600
<v Speaker 1>and the drama with who's going to be traded, who's

0:13:53.620 --> 0:13:55.479
<v Speaker 1>going to stay, if Jonathan Taylor is going to be there,

0:13:55.520 --> 0:13:58.920
<v Speaker 1>Buckner is going to be there, Quentin Nelson, whatever. Daniel

0:13:58.940 --> 0:14:05.980
<v Speaker 1>Jones is 35th in EPA. He's 37th ranked quarterback by PFF.

0:14:06.850 --> 0:14:09.130
<v Speaker 1>It's not a very good team right now. He can't

0:14:09.150 --> 0:14:11.750
<v Speaker 1>get the ball downfield. You've talked about how he's not explosive.

0:14:12.750 --> 0:14:15.240
<v Speaker 1>Their only weapon is Jonathan Taylor, and the Vikings' rush

0:14:15.260 --> 0:14:19.740
<v Speaker 1>defense is as good as the Vikings' pass defense. So

0:14:19.760 --> 0:14:22.180
<v Speaker 1>I want to be on the Vikings under seven.

0:14:23.960 --> 0:14:25.910
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and I didn't fight you too hard on it

0:14:25.930 --> 0:14:29.670
<v Speaker 2>just because of all the injuries to the Colts. That,

0:14:29.690 --> 0:14:32.010
<v Speaker 2>to me, is the biggest thing, where you're taking away Warren.

0:14:32.710 --> 0:14:34.670
<v Speaker 2>You can say all you want about how bad Sauce is,

0:14:35.380 --> 0:14:38.040
<v Speaker 2>Sauce is still a really tough corner to pass against.

0:14:38.360 --> 0:14:41.000
<v Speaker 2>And with someone like Kyler Murray, who's terrible against man,

0:14:41.180 --> 0:14:42.800
<v Speaker 2>he just simply is. He doesn't matter if he's in

0:14:42.820 --> 0:14:45.430
<v Speaker 2>Arizona or comes in Minnesota. Still, his numbers are very

0:14:45.470 --> 0:14:48.070
<v Speaker 2>bad against man. And that's all the Colts basically run.

0:14:48.350 --> 0:14:49.710
<v Speaker 2>I think it's like 3% of the time they run

0:14:49.750 --> 0:14:53.350
<v Speaker 2>man coverage. That was going to obviously be a big deal.

0:14:53.530 --> 0:14:55.950
<v Speaker 2>And not having to worry about sauce for Justin Jefferson

0:14:55.970 --> 0:14:58.630
<v Speaker 2>is now up against their number two or number three corner.

0:14:58.790 --> 0:15:01.960
<v Speaker 2>Most times that's a big deal where you've seen Kyler.

0:15:02.560 --> 0:15:05.510
<v Speaker 2>He's kind of, having struggled, not struggling to learn the offense,

0:15:06.250 --> 0:15:08.790
<v Speaker 2>but he has really been big on, if he can't

0:15:08.810 --> 0:15:10.470
<v Speaker 2>even see what's going on downfield, he just throws it

0:15:10.490 --> 0:15:14.510
<v Speaker 2>where he thinks Justin Jefferson is. I want that from Kyler, honestly. Like,

0:15:14.550 --> 0:15:16.190
<v Speaker 2>that to me is the way it should be. You

0:15:16.230 --> 0:15:19.070
<v Speaker 2>have a number two, number three best receiver in football,

0:15:19.650 --> 0:15:21.690
<v Speaker 2>feed the man. Who cares if he's in triple coverage?

0:15:21.730 --> 0:15:23.630
<v Speaker 2>I mean, me and you both probably have that one

0:15:23.650 --> 0:15:25.500
<v Speaker 2>pop in our mind against Miami. He literally threw into

0:15:25.530 --> 0:15:28.120
<v Speaker 2>triple coverage back corner of the end zone. And, you know,

0:15:28.200 --> 0:15:30.640
<v Speaker 2>that's just, that's the way it's been with Justin Jefferson.

0:15:30.660 --> 0:15:36.300
<v Speaker 2>He's just been incredible. So, Match-up-wise, yeah, this favors the

0:15:36.340 --> 0:15:39.500
<v Speaker 2>defense in so many different ways for Minnesota. So, we

0:15:39.540 --> 0:15:42.040
<v Speaker 2>know the deal here. Like, this is probably one of

0:15:42.060 --> 0:15:44.900
<v Speaker 2>the lowest it's been for the Colts. That's my hesitation

0:15:44.940 --> 0:15:47.900
<v Speaker 2>as well, where it's like, if you're buying market-wise, this

0:15:47.920 --> 0:15:49.720
<v Speaker 2>is as low as it gets for the Colts right now.

0:15:49.800 --> 0:15:52.140
<v Speaker 2>But I think we're both in the mentality of it

0:15:52.180 --> 0:15:54.030
<v Speaker 2>can get lower. It's going to get worse. This is

0:15:54.110 --> 0:15:56.830
<v Speaker 2>a horrible spot for them. So, I know we've already

0:15:56.870 --> 0:16:00.040
<v Speaker 2>played a pretty heavy in teasers, this Vikings number two.

0:16:00.630 --> 0:16:02.190
<v Speaker 2>You still can get under six and a half at Plymouth.

0:16:02.230 --> 0:16:03.470
<v Speaker 2>I think that's where the value is going to be.

0:16:03.530 --> 0:16:04.610
<v Speaker 2>So I'm right there with you.

0:16:05.210 --> 0:16:07.990
<v Speaker 1>Kansas City, Minnesota is the discord grouper of the week

0:16:08.030 --> 0:16:11.360
<v Speaker 1>as well as the teaser. Yeah, it's a tricky one.

0:16:11.460 --> 0:16:13.380
<v Speaker 1>I agree. I think it's going to get much, much worse.

0:16:13.660 --> 0:16:14.800
<v Speaker 1>There is some.

0:16:16.180 --> 0:16:16.580
<v Speaker 2>Ticket.

0:16:16.660 --> 0:16:19.340
<v Speaker 1>There are a slight majority of tickets coming in on

0:16:19.360 --> 0:16:22.220
<v Speaker 1>the Colts. That's another reason why I ultimately decided to

0:16:22.240 --> 0:16:25.640
<v Speaker 1>pull the trigger is it still feels like the Colts

0:16:25.730 --> 0:16:28.970
<v Speaker 1>are a public dog here. And the wise guys are

0:16:29.010 --> 0:16:32.330
<v Speaker 1>still finding a way to funnel money into the Vikings.

0:16:32.370 --> 0:16:37.490
<v Speaker 1>So the Minnesota Vikings will be our closing time trade

0:16:37.510 --> 0:16:42.180
<v Speaker 1>of the week presented by Polymarket trading at 52% minus

0:16:42.200 --> 0:16:44.620
<v Speaker 1>six and a half right now. I need to tell

0:16:44.660 --> 0:16:49.340
<v Speaker 1>you about this new prediction market called Polymarket. It's the

0:16:49.380 --> 0:16:53.050
<v Speaker 1>best way to trade in sports in the past. If

0:16:53.090 --> 0:16:55.090
<v Speaker 1>you wanted action on the game, you'd put some money in.

0:16:55.110 --> 0:16:56.690
<v Speaker 1>And if your team was doing well and you wanted

0:16:56.710 --> 0:16:58.770
<v Speaker 1>to cash out, they lock the trade or take a

0:16:58.830 --> 0:17:02.430
<v Speaker 1>huge fee. But Polymarket is a prediction market, a stock

0:17:02.500 --> 0:17:04.649
<v Speaker 1>exchange for sports where you can buy and sell on

0:17:04.670 --> 0:17:07.040
<v Speaker 1>your teams. I've tried them all and Polymarket is simply

0:17:07.080 --> 0:17:10.300
<v Speaker 1>the best prediction market. They're so confident. You'll never go

0:17:10.359 --> 0:17:12.740
<v Speaker 1>back to the other guys. They're giving you a free

0:17:12.740 --> 0:17:16.740
<v Speaker 1>$ 25 on your first trade when you deposit just $ 10.

0:17:16.140 --> 0:17:19.340
<v Speaker 1>And now they've launched a new feature, Squads. a group

0:17:19.380 --> 0:17:21.270
<v Speaker 1>chat where you can see what everyone is trading on.

0:17:21.310 --> 0:17:23.830
<v Speaker 1>Check the link in the description to join my squad today.

0:17:23.850 --> 0:17:26.790
<v Speaker 1>And so it picks together every Sunday in the Polymarket app.

0:17:27.330 --> 0:17:30.229
<v Speaker 1>Download the Polymarket app today and use SHARP when you

0:17:30.270 --> 0:17:33.709
<v Speaker 1>sign up. That's SHARP to get $ 25 free after you

0:17:33.730 --> 0:17:38.230
<v Speaker 1>deposit just $ 10. San Francisco at Atlanta, Simon. Atlanta is

0:17:38.270 --> 0:17:40.840
<v Speaker 1>now a two and a half point home underdog. We

0:17:40.859 --> 0:17:44.600
<v Speaker 1>had a great conversation on Thursday about managing bankroll and

0:17:44.760 --> 0:17:47.800
<v Speaker 1>prioritizing where you want to put your money against individual bets.

0:17:48.420 --> 0:17:51.420
<v Speaker 1>In that spirit, the Falcons has become one of my

0:17:51.460 --> 0:17:54.139
<v Speaker 1>two biggest bets of the week. It was Chad's choice

0:17:54.180 --> 0:17:56.899
<v Speaker 1>at plus three and a half. Wise guys have moved

0:17:56.960 --> 0:17:59.900
<v Speaker 1>it to two and a half. Mike Evans is out

0:18:00.960 --> 0:18:04.920
<v Speaker 1>selling on peak niners off a primetime win and being undefeated.

0:18:05.460 --> 0:18:08.740
<v Speaker 1>But in the contest, it's two and a half. We're

0:18:08.790 --> 0:18:12.190
<v Speaker 1>still on it, but definitely a little more nervous about

0:18:12.230 --> 0:18:12.750
<v Speaker 1>it under three.

0:18:13.390 --> 0:18:15.490
<v Speaker 2>We're nervous about it, but I'm happy to see that

0:18:15.550 --> 0:18:17.790
<v Speaker 2>we woke up today and it's still holding strong at

0:18:17.810 --> 0:18:20.950
<v Speaker 2>two and a half, which just shows it's just pro

0:18:21.010 --> 0:18:24.570
<v Speaker 2>money hammering this side where it's the public hammering the 49ers.

0:18:24.609 --> 0:18:26.750
<v Speaker 2>And it could work out for them in the 49ers, right? Obviously,

0:18:26.790 --> 0:18:28.170
<v Speaker 2>we wish we still had the three and a half.

0:18:28.210 --> 0:18:32.860
<v Speaker 2>It's such a good number here. Matchup-wise, I don't feel

0:18:32.880 --> 0:18:35.510
<v Speaker 2>like these teams are that especially with all the injuries,

0:18:35.570 --> 0:18:38.210
<v Speaker 2>obviously the 49ers are not that different of two teams, right?

0:18:38.250 --> 0:18:41.850
<v Speaker 2>They have very big strength and weaknesses, obviously to take

0:18:41.890 --> 0:18:44.879
<v Speaker 2>advantage of for each other. And, um, my big question

0:18:44.890 --> 0:18:47.600
<v Speaker 2>right now with this 49ers team is can Brock Purdy

0:18:47.640 --> 0:18:49.780
<v Speaker 2>do it again, but without Mike Evans, because that's what

0:18:49.800 --> 0:18:51.480
<v Speaker 2>this season has been. Brock Purdy has been pulling a

0:18:51.520 --> 0:18:53.600
<v Speaker 2>rabbit out of the hat every week. It feels like

0:18:53.640 --> 0:18:56.080
<v Speaker 2>he's just making these incredible plays. I think he has

0:18:56.100 --> 0:18:58.110
<v Speaker 2>the lowest amount of sacks taken this season with four

0:18:58.119 --> 0:19:00.970
<v Speaker 2>or five. Like he's just been on a different level,

0:19:01.090 --> 0:19:03.869
<v Speaker 2>especially with his pocket presence in his play. And, um,

0:19:04.380 --> 0:19:06.139
<v Speaker 2>It's a little bit the same what the pros are

0:19:06.160 --> 0:19:09.310
<v Speaker 2>doing against the Chiefs here, where the 49ers are 6-0.

0:19:09.880 --> 0:19:11.840
<v Speaker 2>They've had a lot of games break their way. Really

0:19:11.880 --> 0:19:16.119
<v Speaker 2>tough games have broken their way. But they're not going undefeated.

0:19:16.140 --> 0:19:18.140
<v Speaker 2>We all know that. They're going to drop some games here,

0:19:18.400 --> 0:19:20.540
<v Speaker 2>and especially when they're playing against really good, desperate teams.

0:19:21.119 --> 0:19:22.770
<v Speaker 2>That's what you have in Atlanta. Atlanta is going to

0:19:22.790 --> 0:19:25.409
<v Speaker 2>be very desperate in this game. Like 2-4, they know

0:19:25.430 --> 0:19:28.389
<v Speaker 2>they'll lose this one. They're 2-5. Not that their season's over, but,

0:19:28.430 --> 0:19:30.530
<v Speaker 2>I mean, my God, that's an incredible hole to dig

0:19:30.570 --> 0:19:32.790
<v Speaker 2>themselves out of. So they just– It feels like they're

0:19:32.810 --> 0:19:34.470
<v Speaker 2>going to be a really desperate team here where the 49ers,

0:19:35.100 --> 0:19:36.480
<v Speaker 2>they're always going to play tough. They're always going to

0:19:36.500 --> 0:19:39.500
<v Speaker 2>play hard. This is a really, really easy to spot

0:19:39.560 --> 0:19:43.179
<v Speaker 2>letdown spot for them. They're coming off such an insane

0:19:43.300 --> 0:19:46.810
<v Speaker 2>competitive game. Now they're going on the road here against

0:19:46.850 --> 0:19:49.250
<v Speaker 2>an Atlanta team that, not that they're going to overlook them,

0:19:49.330 --> 0:19:51.929
<v Speaker 2>but it's the 1 p.m. start thing. We talk all

0:19:51.950 --> 0:19:55.929
<v Speaker 2>the time with the West Coast team coming east. This year,

0:19:56.410 --> 0:19:57.470
<v Speaker 2>the big one that jumps out to me, a team

0:19:57.490 --> 0:19:59.460
<v Speaker 2>that sleptwalked through a 1 p.m. game, was that Seattle

0:19:59.500 --> 0:20:02.720
<v Speaker 2>team against Washington. It was a stupid 1 p.m. start,

0:20:02.820 --> 0:20:04.720
<v Speaker 2>and that Seattle team really never felt like they got

0:20:04.740 --> 0:20:06.720
<v Speaker 2>off the bus. It feels a little bit the same

0:20:06.740 --> 0:20:09.940
<v Speaker 2>here with the 49ers. It's nice to see the numbers held.

0:20:10.369 --> 0:20:11.409
<v Speaker 2>Cause that was where we're going to come here today.

0:20:11.430 --> 0:20:12.429
<v Speaker 2>It was going to be back up to three and

0:20:12.450 --> 0:20:15.020
<v Speaker 2>it's like, Oh God, we're missing something here on this

0:20:15.060 --> 0:20:17.379
<v Speaker 2>49ers team. So yeah, this just always felt like an

0:20:17.420 --> 0:20:20.639
<v Speaker 2>Atlanta spot. We both, when we talk Thursday, we're going

0:20:20.660 --> 0:20:22.680
<v Speaker 2>through the list of teams. I was like, I'd still

0:20:22.700 --> 0:20:24.159
<v Speaker 2>play Atlanta two and a half. I told you that

0:20:24.200 --> 0:20:27.050
<v Speaker 2>I'd still would today. So I haven't let the money

0:20:27.109 --> 0:20:30.350
<v Speaker 2>move too much off me off this one. Cause I

0:20:30.369 --> 0:20:31.909
<v Speaker 2>won't lie. It got scarier there where there's a lot

0:20:31.930 --> 0:20:33.570
<v Speaker 2>of money pouring into the 49ers. And I was like,

0:20:33.630 --> 0:20:34.790
<v Speaker 2>Oh my God, what am I missing here? But it

0:20:34.830 --> 0:20:37.470
<v Speaker 2>just turns out that it's just public money. And I'm

0:20:37.650 --> 0:20:39.359
<v Speaker 2>still really dug in on this Atlanta team. So I

0:20:39.390 --> 0:20:40.960
<v Speaker 2>think we're, both of the same page here.

0:20:41.560 --> 0:20:44.680
<v Speaker 1>You just mentioned the Kansas City Chiefs, probably the most

0:20:44.700 --> 0:20:48.140
<v Speaker 1>interesting game on the board because the Chiefs are two

0:20:48.180 --> 0:20:52.750
<v Speaker 1>and a half point road underdogs. And it's been bouncing

0:20:52.810 --> 0:20:56.790
<v Speaker 1>between two and a half and three often. Every time

0:20:56.850 --> 0:21:00.470
<v Speaker 1>it gets to three, it feels like the professionals come

0:21:00.630 --> 0:21:04.070
<v Speaker 1>in on the Kansas City Chiefs and it gets back

0:21:04.230 --> 0:21:08.969
<v Speaker 1>down to two and a half. I know the trends

0:21:08.990 --> 0:21:12.160
<v Speaker 1>say bet the Seahawks. I know the Seahawks have had

0:21:12.200 --> 0:21:16.480
<v Speaker 1>a more competitive schedule. But they don't have a running

0:21:16.500 --> 0:21:22.100
<v Speaker 1>game right now. So we're asking ourselves to go against

0:21:22.660 --> 0:21:27.840
<v Speaker 1>the evidence of things seen with Patrick Mahomes, who is

0:21:27.859 --> 0:21:32.679
<v Speaker 1>10-3 in his career as an underdog, to be basically

0:21:32.720 --> 0:21:34.500
<v Speaker 1>a field goal dog.

0:21:36.240 --> 0:21:36.460
<v Speaker 2>With.

0:21:37.020 --> 0:21:42.190
<v Speaker 1>a great running game and an improving defense against a

0:21:42.490 --> 0:21:44.710
<v Speaker 1>defense that has been vulnerable at times this year, a

0:21:45.010 --> 0:21:47.730
<v Speaker 1>team that keeps getting penalized and it doesn't have a

0:21:47.750 --> 0:21:49.280
<v Speaker 1>running game. So we're saying, let's put the ball in

0:21:49.300 --> 0:21:51.939
<v Speaker 1>Sam Donald's hands and see if he can be Patrick Mahomes.

0:21:53.480 --> 0:21:54.180
<v Speaker 1>I don't want to do that.

0:21:56.640 --> 0:21:59.980
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. I, I, if we hadn't put this one in

0:22:00.040 --> 0:22:02.550
<v Speaker 2>on Thursday, I honestly would be much happier. Even though

0:22:02.609 --> 0:22:04.950
<v Speaker 2>I was way more confident on Thursday on this chiefs team,

0:22:05.700 --> 0:22:09.640
<v Speaker 2>Like you said, this is a situation where Mahomes does

0:22:09.680 --> 0:22:13.500
<v Speaker 2>break a lot of the rules, but someone like me professionally, long-term,

0:22:13.780 --> 0:22:16.030
<v Speaker 2>this is a losing bet. If you're betting the Chiefs

0:22:16.050 --> 0:22:19.030
<v Speaker 2>here against Seattle, you are technically walking into one here

0:22:19.070 --> 0:22:22.490
<v Speaker 2>because every shop I talk to, every bookmaker I talk

0:22:22.530 --> 0:22:24.810
<v Speaker 2>to is 80% of the money, 80% of the tickets.

0:22:25.410 --> 0:22:28.369
<v Speaker 2>It's all over Kansas City. And Chad just talked about

0:22:28.390 --> 0:22:32.490
<v Speaker 2>reverse line movement. This line opened at minus 1.5. Now

0:22:32.530 --> 0:22:35.800
<v Speaker 2>it's up to minus 3 on Seattle. very telling as

0:22:35.840 --> 0:22:39.200
<v Speaker 2>well like i said it's very smart groups on seattle

0:22:39.280 --> 0:22:42.879
<v Speaker 2>and um chad alluded to it it's it's the the

0:22:42.940 --> 0:22:46.660
<v Speaker 2>deepened conversation about this is the chiefs are heavily overrated

0:22:47.300 --> 0:22:49.280
<v Speaker 2>and like i just talked about with the 49ers who

0:22:49.340 --> 0:22:51.980
<v Speaker 2>are undefeated the chiefs ain't going undefeated this year they're

0:22:52.000 --> 0:22:53.820
<v Speaker 2>gonna lose a bunch of games you know three or

0:22:53.859 --> 0:22:57.120
<v Speaker 2>four at least they're five and oh right now and

0:22:57.160 --> 0:22:59.730
<v Speaker 2>they beat denver week one which you know we still

0:22:59.830 --> 0:23:03.260
<v Speaker 2>something is tough Then they beat the Colts, Miami, Vegas,

0:23:03.300 --> 0:23:05.520
<v Speaker 2>and the Chargers. That's the pros are looking at being like,

0:23:06.180 --> 0:23:08.210
<v Speaker 2>they haven't really played anybody. They've just beat up on

0:23:08.230 --> 0:23:10.530
<v Speaker 2>their division. I think a lot of people are down

0:23:10.570 --> 0:23:12.230
<v Speaker 2>on their division this year compared to what they were

0:23:12.270 --> 0:23:15.609
<v Speaker 2>last year. So I totally get where these pros are

0:23:15.650 --> 0:23:17.969
<v Speaker 2>coming from, but I feel like you're nailing it where

0:23:17.990 --> 0:23:20.950
<v Speaker 2>it's like, I just think if Spaggs has the right

0:23:20.990 --> 0:23:23.209
<v Speaker 2>game plan, how do they move the ball against the

0:23:23.230 --> 0:23:27.139
<v Speaker 2>Chiefs defense? On the flip side, Seattle's defense is not,

0:23:27.619 --> 0:23:30.380
<v Speaker 2>like they were previous years, like especially last year, where

0:23:30.420 --> 0:23:32.780
<v Speaker 2>you could not put the ball downfield on them. This year,

0:23:32.800 --> 0:23:35.980
<v Speaker 2>I know Mahomes has struggled, but he always just takes

0:23:36.010 --> 0:23:38.369
<v Speaker 2>what the defense gives him. That's what makes him so great.

0:23:38.710 --> 0:23:40.770
<v Speaker 2>And you can say, well, he's not played well this

0:23:40.790 --> 0:23:43.690
<v Speaker 2>year at all. These are the exact type of games

0:23:43.730 --> 0:23:47.090
<v Speaker 2>Mahomes shows up for on the road as a dog

0:23:47.130 --> 0:23:50.170
<v Speaker 2>in prime time. So, you know, the one more Sam

0:23:50.190 --> 0:23:53.090
<v Speaker 2>Donaldson that I got was since he left, you know,

0:23:53.740 --> 0:23:55.919
<v Speaker 2>Went on to Minnesota, and since he's been in Seattle,

0:23:55.960 --> 0:23:59.630
<v Speaker 2>he's 7-0 straight up in primetime games. All right, that's

0:23:59.690 --> 0:24:02.290
<v Speaker 2>a fair stat. Sam, as much hate as you want

0:24:02.310 --> 0:24:03.970
<v Speaker 2>to give him, because he was terrible in primetime games,

0:24:04.270 --> 0:24:07.230
<v Speaker 2>especially at the Jets. He's been great in the primetime

0:24:07.250 --> 0:24:10.050
<v Speaker 2>in this part of his career. I totally get all

0:24:10.090 --> 0:24:13.449
<v Speaker 2>those stats and all that noise and how this is

0:24:13.570 --> 0:24:15.430
<v Speaker 2>a spot for Seattle, but I think we're both dug

0:24:15.490 --> 0:24:18.619
<v Speaker 2>in where we blindly bet Mahomes is a dog. He's

0:24:18.640 --> 0:24:21.629
<v Speaker 2>10-1 against the spread as an underdog. I'm trying. I'm

0:24:21.650 --> 0:24:23.609
<v Speaker 2>trying like you. I'm trying to overthink it because every

0:24:24.250 --> 0:24:26.410
<v Speaker 2>every instinct in my body is being like, please walk

0:24:26.450 --> 0:24:28.210
<v Speaker 2>away from this game. Do not put this in the contest.

0:24:28.250 --> 0:24:31.170
<v Speaker 2>But I just can't get away from it. I'm too

0:24:31.190 --> 0:24:33.830
<v Speaker 2>dug in. I just I love this spot from home. So, yeah,

0:24:33.950 --> 0:24:36.689
<v Speaker 2>I feel gross about it. But like I said, the public,

0:24:36.770 --> 0:24:38.109
<v Speaker 2>they don't they don't want more than 50 percent of

0:24:38.150 --> 0:24:39.690
<v Speaker 2>the time. They do want 40 percent of the time.

0:24:39.730 --> 0:24:40.800
<v Speaker 2>So I'll ride with them here.

0:24:41.119 --> 0:24:45.139
<v Speaker 1>Simon, I am so blind on this game that when

0:24:45.180 --> 0:24:47.440
<v Speaker 1>it got to three yesterday afternoon, I put more money

0:24:47.480 --> 0:24:53.470
<v Speaker 1>on the Chiefs. I just can't. I'm walking into it.

0:24:53.680 --> 0:24:56.619
<v Speaker 1>We're both walking into it. And maybe we'll learn a lesson.

0:24:56.830 --> 0:24:59.169
<v Speaker 1>Or maybe Patrick Mahomes will continue to be Patrick Mahomes.

0:24:59.750 --> 0:25:01.770
<v Speaker 1>But I'm willing to bet that that's going to be

0:25:02.010 --> 0:25:05.030
<v Speaker 1>the case. One other game I want to talk about.

0:25:05.170 --> 0:25:10.790
<v Speaker 1>The Raiders hosting the Los Angeles Rams started at five

0:25:10.810 --> 0:25:12.629
<v Speaker 1>and a half. It's been bet down to three and

0:25:12.650 --> 0:25:16.050
<v Speaker 1>a half. I think there's just conflicting opinions here. Is

0:25:16.100 --> 0:25:18.400
<v Speaker 1>it a buy low, sell high spot on the Rams?

0:25:18.500 --> 0:25:21.710
<v Speaker 1>Is it a walk away from the Raiders because they've

0:25:21.750 --> 0:25:25.530
<v Speaker 1>continued to be competitive, but they can't really be as

0:25:25.590 --> 0:25:29.690
<v Speaker 1>good as they've shown. I think you really like the

0:25:29.750 --> 0:25:33.290
<v Speaker 1>Raiders here. I want to be on the Rams. Puka

0:25:33.350 --> 0:25:36.390
<v Speaker 1>is going to play. Give me your thoughts here.

0:25:38.040 --> 0:25:40.209
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, another really public dog, but it really has to

0:25:40.260 --> 0:25:42.080
<v Speaker 2>come down to all the injuries to the Rams. And

0:25:42.520 --> 0:25:45.080
<v Speaker 2>on the flip side, the Raiders can really attack this

0:25:45.140 --> 0:25:47.260
<v Speaker 2>Rams defense. Like everything Kirk has been doing this year,

0:25:48.060 --> 0:25:49.460
<v Speaker 2>He should be able to tackle his Rams defense now.

0:25:49.480 --> 0:25:51.980
<v Speaker 2>We've already seen Kirk in one game turn into a pumpkin, right,

0:25:52.030 --> 0:25:55.790
<v Speaker 2>against the Patriots. That could burn you here. But he's

0:25:55.850 --> 0:25:58.929
<v Speaker 2>played so well at home. It doesn't matter the competition.

0:25:58.970 --> 0:26:00.750
<v Speaker 2>I think as much as you hate it, you want

0:26:00.770 --> 0:26:02.310
<v Speaker 2>to give the Chiefs or the Bills, I think they're

0:26:02.330 --> 0:26:05.470
<v Speaker 2>better right now than this Rams team, especially mentally. Like

0:26:05.750 --> 0:26:10.510
<v Speaker 2>those two teams seem light years of better mentally. And yeah,

0:26:10.550 --> 0:26:13.109
<v Speaker 2>like that. The reason I get why you're taking the

0:26:13.150 --> 0:26:15.390
<v Speaker 2>Rams is they're also a very desperate team right now.

0:26:15.470 --> 0:26:18.100
<v Speaker 2>This feels like another game for their season. But you're

0:26:18.119 --> 0:26:20.060
<v Speaker 2>still getting the hook. You're still getting plus three and

0:26:20.080 --> 0:26:22.379
<v Speaker 2>a half. So, yeah, four and a half. I loved

0:26:22.680 --> 0:26:24.760
<v Speaker 2>the Raiders, obviously. Still like them at three and a half.

0:26:25.340 --> 0:26:27.619
<v Speaker 2>There's a lot of pros games, a lot of discrepancy

0:26:27.660 --> 0:26:31.330
<v Speaker 2>this week. This is a big one. Houston Texans, that's

0:26:31.369 --> 0:26:34.110
<v Speaker 2>a really big pro spot. Tennessee Titans, a really big

0:26:34.170 --> 0:26:36.390
<v Speaker 2>pro spot. Those are two games me and Chad aren't

0:26:36.410 --> 0:26:38.530
<v Speaker 2>really talking about and I haven't on our radar. In

0:26:38.570 --> 0:26:40.890
<v Speaker 2>another life, I might have made us force those two in.

0:26:41.850 --> 0:26:43.850
<v Speaker 2>But I feel the same way here about this Raiders

0:26:43.890 --> 0:26:47.600
<v Speaker 2>team where, Just feels like it's just too much disrespect

0:26:47.619 --> 0:26:49.900
<v Speaker 2>to this Raiders team and Kirk Cousins. They played so well.

0:26:49.980 --> 0:26:53.520
<v Speaker 2>And Chad's right, though. The Rams, they're the better team.

0:26:53.540 --> 0:26:55.439
<v Speaker 2>They should steamroll this team here. If they're a playoff

0:26:55.480 --> 0:26:58.090
<v Speaker 2>team here, they go in and win this game by seven.

0:26:58.119 --> 0:27:00.310
<v Speaker 2>But I don't think they are. I think they're going

0:27:00.330 --> 0:27:02.350
<v Speaker 2>to lose this game outright. So I'm really excited to

0:27:02.369 --> 0:27:05.090
<v Speaker 2>see this one play out. All right.

0:27:06.450 --> 0:27:11.949
<v Speaker 1>Biggest bets update. It felt like on Thursday it was

0:27:11.990 --> 0:27:15.909
<v Speaker 1>going to be heavy Tampa, heavy Atlanta. where are we

0:27:15.970 --> 0:27:16.710
<v Speaker 1>on Sunday morning?

0:27:18.050 --> 0:27:20.610
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, still big on those guys. Still betting really, bet

0:27:20.650 --> 0:27:23.330
<v Speaker 2>really heavy into Miami. Um, obviously I've put more into

0:27:23.350 --> 0:27:26.929
<v Speaker 2>the Texans here. I've put way more into the chiefs,

0:27:26.990 --> 0:27:28.800
<v Speaker 2>just like Chad. And I obviously bet a lot more

0:27:28.820 --> 0:27:32.520
<v Speaker 2>into the Raiders. So, um, yeah, for me, the, the

0:27:32.580 --> 0:27:34.300
<v Speaker 2>deciding games of the day are definitely going to be

0:27:34.320 --> 0:27:36.359
<v Speaker 2>those two. You mentioned the bucks Atlanta. I've just been

0:27:36.380 --> 0:27:38.260
<v Speaker 2>betting them since Sunday night. So those are going to be,

0:27:38.280 --> 0:27:41.460
<v Speaker 2>those are gonna be big ones. And, um, yeah, unfortunately

0:27:41.480 --> 0:27:43.990
<v Speaker 2>it's all about the number you got. Like, Both those

0:27:44.030 --> 0:27:46.310
<v Speaker 2>games land under three. It's not going to really hurt

0:27:46.330 --> 0:27:49.970
<v Speaker 2>me that much, honestly. But that 49ers won more than

0:27:50.250 --> 0:27:52.070
<v Speaker 2>the other ones more so because I have a lot

0:27:52.090 --> 0:27:55.629
<v Speaker 2>of money tied to the money line of Atlanta here. So, yeah,

0:27:55.670 --> 0:27:57.730
<v Speaker 2>that's the deciding factor of my good day or not.

0:27:58.290 --> 0:28:04.149
<v Speaker 1>Me too. We're going to be Atlanta Falcons betting buddies today, Simon.

0:28:04.530 --> 0:28:07.409
<v Speaker 1>I think our five official picks, I don't know that

0:28:07.430 --> 0:28:09.919
<v Speaker 1>we're changing anything because we like the lines that we

0:28:09.960 --> 0:28:13.280
<v Speaker 1>got on a couple of these games. Correct me if

0:28:13.340 --> 0:28:17.500
<v Speaker 1>I'm wrong. Miami plus four and a half. Tampa Bay

0:28:18.140 --> 0:28:22.240
<v Speaker 1>plus three and a half at Carolina. Cincy minus one

0:28:22.280 --> 0:28:25.440
<v Speaker 1>and a half on the road. Again, getting good value

0:28:26.520 --> 0:28:28.840
<v Speaker 1>based on when we bet versus where the lines are now.

0:28:31.020 --> 0:28:35.010
<v Speaker 1>The Kansas City Chiefs plus two and a half and

0:28:35.050 --> 0:28:39.770
<v Speaker 1>the Atlanta Falcons plus two and a half. Do we

0:28:39.810 --> 0:28:42.910
<v Speaker 1>want to take any of those out? Based on the

0:28:42.950 --> 0:28:43.540
<v Speaker 1>line value.

0:28:45.000 --> 0:28:46.880
<v Speaker 2>No, we're stuck here. Even though we always say don't

0:28:46.940 --> 0:28:48.780
<v Speaker 2>get too hung up on the lines. But, yeah, we're

0:28:48.820 --> 0:28:51.900
<v Speaker 2>stuck here. It's not just one or two games of

0:28:51.920 --> 0:28:52.420
<v Speaker 2>good value.

0:28:52.740 --> 0:28:53.960
<v Speaker 1>It's three. Yeah.

0:28:54.180 --> 0:28:56.860
<v Speaker 2>So that's the hard part. Like I said, the only

0:28:56.940 --> 0:29:00.040
<v Speaker 2>one I've been bullied out of is the Chiefs. That's

0:29:00.060 --> 0:29:01.760
<v Speaker 2>the biggest one I got calls about I was taken

0:29:01.800 --> 0:29:04.780
<v Speaker 2>out of our contest. The other ones, I'm keeping all

0:29:04.800 --> 0:29:05.000
<v Speaker 2>of them.

0:29:06.340 --> 0:29:10.290
<v Speaker 1>All right. It's our show. We will be back tonight, 730.

0:29:10.290 --> 0:29:14.930
<v Speaker 1>live on sharper square youtube with our instant nfl reactions

0:29:15.010 --> 0:29:17.890
<v Speaker 1>after the late afternoon games wrap up this has been

0:29:17.910 --> 0:29:21.660
<v Speaker 1>sharper square presented by polymarket part of the volume podcast

0:29:21.840 --> 0:29:25.680
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0:29:25.700 --> 0:29:28.520
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0:29:34.450 --> 0:29:38.630
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0:29:38.670 --> 0:29:43.200
<v Speaker 1>in the game till i tell you to understand in

0:29:43.220 --> 0:29:46.740
<v Speaker 1>the big leagues now you understand let's start growing up