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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast podcasts.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second spot. Hello, Welcome to the

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Speaker 2: Action Network podcast the UFC Betting Preview. I'm Sean Zarilla

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Speaker 2: joined today at Billy Word to help you break down

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Speaker 2: a thirteen fight card for UFC Mexico City. Today's episode,

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Speaker 2: we'll be looking at this week's UFC card, giving our

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Speaker 2: best bets, favorite honderdogs, top props and more. And if

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Speaker 2: you'd like to tell some of the bets we discussed

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Speaker 2: on today's show. Make sure to find the quick Sill

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Speaker 2: links in both the podcasts and the video descriptions for

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Speaker 2: today's episode, or go to Action network dot com slash

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Speaker 2: bet now thirteen fight card at Elevation in Mexico City.

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Speaker 2: Cardio stamina can be a little bit extra important in

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Speaker 2: these fights. Prelims at four pm six fight main card

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Speaker 2: at seven pm Eastern. The main event Brandon Marino minus

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Speaker 2: two fifty against Steve astroboy erseg at plus two ten.

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Speaker 2: This fight is minus two to fifteen to go to

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Speaker 2: a decision, plus one sixty to end inside the distance. Billy,

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Speaker 2: you give out Brandon Marino. Earlier in the week, in

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Speaker 2: your luck ratings got him about minus one ninety five.

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Speaker 2: Market movement has been one direction on the Marino side

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Speaker 2: since open he opened around minus one ninety As I said,

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Speaker 2: currently around minus two fifty. I lean this fight to

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Speaker 2: go over or to go to a decision. You'll find

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Speaker 2: my full preview up on Action network dot com. I

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Speaker 2: made this fight about seventy percent to go to a

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Speaker 2: decision minus two thirty five, implied. I like Marino to

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Speaker 2: win that decision of plus one fifteen. However, I think

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Speaker 2: he's a little kind of flat in his recent performances.

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Speaker 2: If you're playing a money line side at this point,

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Speaker 2: I actually think it's Erseeger pass now. In terms of

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Speaker 2: how it plays out, Marino's the more durable guy, has

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Speaker 2: more finishing upside. I think he has more domin a

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Speaker 2: decision upside with top time and Ersg's wing condition is

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Speaker 2: very likely a close competitive decision where he edges three

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Speaker 2: of the five rounds. I don't really see him pulling

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Speaker 2: away at a dramatic clip that's aid Marino, I think

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Speaker 2: has looked kind of flat in his recent performances, and

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Speaker 2: on a money line side, I do think it's ersig

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Speaker 2: Or pass at this price point. So, Billy, I want

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Speaker 2: to get your thoughts now that the line is moved,

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Speaker 2: what you would consider doing this with this line, if

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Speaker 2: there's any props you're interested in playing in the fight,

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Speaker 2: and then any live angles you may consider for this

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Speaker 2: five round fight at Elevation in Mexico City.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I agree with you.

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Speaker 3: If I hadn't already bet on the Moreno side, not

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Speaker 3: so much in that I would take Ersig's money line,

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Speaker 3: but Mareno by decision makes a lot of sense, or

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Speaker 3: even the four or five decision prop Moreno live stuff

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Speaker 3: like that. I trust his cardio a little bit more,

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Speaker 3: just because we've seen him in so many five round fights.

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Speaker 3: Not that Ersig hasn't, but he totally takes the fifth

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Speaker 3: round against Pantoja in his only fifth round fight to date.

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Speaker 3: And Moreno, who's pretty much only ever lost split decisions,

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Speaker 3: not ever, but like in recent memory, it's all been

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Speaker 3: very close decisions against championship level opponents. Ursig looked really

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Speaker 3: really good against outside of the top ten flyweights, got

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Speaker 3: a quick title fight, and then when he's fought up

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Speaker 3: to that level, he lost a clear but competitive decision

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Speaker 3: to Pantoja, and then got beaten real bad knocked down

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Speaker 3: twice against kai Ki France, so Ursik's kind of an

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Speaker 3: open book on whether he really is even a championship

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Speaker 3: level fighter in the UFC or just had like a

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Speaker 3: beautiful run over a short period and got thrown into

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Speaker 3: a championship fight because there weren't a lot of flyweights

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Speaker 3: that Panoja hadn't already fought seventeen times. So because of that,

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Speaker 3: I don't really trust his money line. I do like

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Speaker 3: the Moreno decision, moreno late, that kind of thing, but

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Speaker 3: obviously I really liked Moreno inside a two to one

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Speaker 3: on Monday, And it's just a classic luck ratings pick

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Speaker 3: for me because his last two losses were split decisions

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Speaker 3: against pretty much the best guys in the world, one

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Speaker 3: of which the title fight against Pantoja, I thought could

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Speaker 3: have gone either way. I think it was scored correctly,

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Speaker 3: but I wouldn't have called it a robbery the other direction,

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Speaker 3: if that makes sense.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm really glad you pointed out their trajectory of

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Speaker 2: Steve Verseg within the flyway division flywaight to very shallow

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Speaker 2: division heavyweight as well, so guys tend to get pushed

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Speaker 2: up the rankings a little bit quicker than they should

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Speaker 2: at times. Shimil Gaziev comes to mind his main event loss.

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Speaker 2: But Erseg never actually beat any of the guys at

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Speaker 2: the top of the vision. He was fighting competitive fights,

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Speaker 2: but as you said, guys ranked outside of the top

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Speaker 2: ten did win those fights. But then he got to

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Speaker 2: the top of the vision lost the competitive decision. Pantoshin

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Speaker 2: again like, hasn't beaten anybody who was ranked, you know

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Speaker 2: in the range that Marino is currently ranked so level

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Speaker 2: for level, it seems like Marino is in a higher tier.

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Speaker 2: But I do think the trajectory of both fighters. I

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Speaker 2: still think Erseg is ascending. I still think Marino is

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Speaker 2: kind of on the back end of his career. Not

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Speaker 2: as financial age difference between these two, so you don't

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Speaker 2: really see it in terms of the age gap. Marino

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Speaker 2: has taking a lot more damage in terms of his fights,

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Speaker 2: you know, adding up over time. He is super durable though,

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Speaker 2: like one of the most durable fighters in the history

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Speaker 2: of sport. I really don't give ers very much finishing

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Speaker 2: upside at all here, and if he's not going to

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Speaker 2: finish the fight, he needs to edge three close rounds.

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Speaker 2: In Mexico City, against the hometown fighter, like he's drawing

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Speaker 2: pretty thin on the margins in terms of actually winning

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Speaker 2: this thing. I think Marino by decision. As you mentioned,

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Speaker 2: Billy probably the best bet at plus one twenty five.

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Speaker 2: Currently I make it plus one fifteen, and then I said,

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Speaker 2: I make that goes to decision around minus two to fifty.

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Speaker 2: You can lay minus two hundred, though it is it

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Speaker 2: is getting closer to minus two fifteen minus two twenty

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Speaker 2: as we're currently chatting to move on a fight of

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Speaker 2: the night. The co main event between Manuel Elogo Torres

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Speaker 2: and Drew Dober. Torres even money Dober minus one twenty

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Speaker 2: fight heavily juiced to end inside the distance at minus

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Speaker 2: six fifty. It's near five to one to reach a decision.

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Speaker 2: The amber lightweight fight goes to a decision about forty

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Speaker 2: six percent of the time. But Manuel Torres has seen

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Speaker 2: seventeen of his eighteen career fights and inside of round one,

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Speaker 2: so Torres is an absolute like shot out of a

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Speaker 2: cannon type fighter, a bit of a glass canon either

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Speaker 2: hurts you or tends to get hurt in the opening

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Speaker 2: round and that's where the fight ends. A bit Terrence

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Speaker 2: mckinneyish you know, just in terms of like the pace,

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Speaker 2: you know, not the style, but the pace of his fights.

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Speaker 2: It's just like shot out of a cannon and somebody's

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Speaker 2: gonna die, whoever it is. We saw Dover McKinney go

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Speaker 2: at it Dover. Dover got knocked down early, got back up,

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Speaker 2: ended up, putting McKinney away. And you know, historically Drew

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Speaker 2: Dover super durable. We have seen him get cracked more

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Speaker 2: in recent memory. But he is the older guy here,

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Speaker 2: and he's the smaller guy here. Torres is six and

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Speaker 2: a half years younger. He's two inches taller, he has

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Speaker 2: a three inch reach advantage, and he also has the

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Speaker 2: early grappling and submission upside. I just don't like his

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Speaker 2: striking defense, and I do like the level of competition

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Speaker 2: Dover has faced throughout his career. I think he's verys

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Speaker 2: He's going to be facing here, something here that he

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Speaker 2: has seen in the past. So I would actually expect

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Speaker 2: Dober to try to survive that first five minutes because

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Speaker 2: he knows he's going to have the cardio advantage down

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Speaker 2: the stretch. He trains at elevation in Colorado, and he's

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Speaker 2: probably the more durable of the two guys. So I'm

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Speaker 2: waiting for a live bet on Dover after round one

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Speaker 2: free fight. I'm interested in Dober to win in rounds

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Speaker 2: two or three at about six to one and eleven

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Speaker 2: to one, respectively, and then I'd lean to the over

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Speaker 2: one and a half. If you're leaning to the dover side,

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Speaker 2: you're leaning to the over here. I just don't know

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Speaker 2: if it ultimately gets to the over one and a

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Speaker 2: half of plus one fifty. I actually think if it

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Speaker 2: gets over one and a half, it's very likely to

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Speaker 2: go to like at that point, I would rather have

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Speaker 2: the decision prop in the over.

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Speaker 1: One and a half.

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Speaker 2: So goes the decision of plus four ninety interest me

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Speaker 2: a little bit more than the over one and a

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Speaker 2: half of plus one fifty get lightweight decision. Lightweight fights

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Speaker 2: go to decision around a forty six percent clip. You're

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Speaker 2: getting five to one here. That's an enormous number. Billy,

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Speaker 2: you bet Torres pre fight. You're at even money on Torres?

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Speaker 2: Where's your price target up to? And I think you

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Speaker 2: agree with me. Dover live after round one also good angle,

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Speaker 2: regardless of whether you have to take it on fors

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Speaker 2: or not.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, real quick, I want to say it was really

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Speaker 3: sharp saying that if we clear one and a half,

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Speaker 3: we're probably going to a decision because given the altitude

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Speaker 3: here I know, dueber transit altitude whatever, like Mexico City

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Speaker 3: is a whole different animal. You've heard fighters talk about

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Speaker 3: air quality impacting their cardio as well as just the altitude.

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Speaker 3: It's more altitude even than Colorado.

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Speaker 1: I believe.

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Speaker 3: I don't know if that's one hundred potentiual, it is true,

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Speaker 3: but yeah, so it's one of those where if we

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Speaker 3: get through seven or eight minutes, we probably have two

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Speaker 3: tired fighters, which leads to not a finish. But yeah,

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Speaker 3: I'm on the Torres side. I think probably down to

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Speaker 3: like minus one ten or so. I got at a

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Speaker 3: plus one oh two a little bit earlier in the

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Speaker 3: week and logged that in the app plus one hundred

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Speaker 3: the best you can get.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 3: A couple things stood out for me on Tate. The

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Speaker 3: only time he really took a lot of damage in

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Speaker 3: the UFC was against Nacho Obaha Mundees. He got dropped

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Speaker 3: with the exact same sequence twice where Torres lunched in

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Speaker 3: with the big left hand and Bahamande's hit the perfect

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Speaker 3: right hand pull counter where you step back long, straight hand.

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Speaker 3: That's going to be a lot easier for a fighter

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Speaker 3: like Nacho who's way taller than everybody else in the division.

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Speaker 3: Not as much of an option for Dover if he

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Speaker 3: pulls out of Torres's range. Torres has three inches and reached,

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Speaker 3: Dover is not going to be there to hit him back,

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Speaker 3: So I'm not as worried about that. And then the

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Speaker 3: other thing that stands out is he submitted Chris Duncan

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Speaker 3: and just ragged all him on the ground, and that

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Speaker 3: lot or that win has aged pretty well for Torres

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Speaker 3: because Duncan then picked up two straight submissions and Torres

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Speaker 3: submitted him. So I do think he has the grappling

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Speaker 3: upside at least early maybe if not, and its entirety,

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Speaker 3: you could certainly take you know, Torres in the first

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Speaker 3: two rounds, and that would make a ton of sense.

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Speaker 3: What I'm trying to do is come in with a

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Speaker 3: Torres ticket a round plus money and then hopefully after

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Speaker 3: round one Drew dober is plus two hundred maybe even better.

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Speaker 3: Just kind of build that live betting portfolio where we

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Speaker 3: make money with either guy winning and don't need Torres

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Speaker 3: to get the finish. That win, and as you pointed

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Speaker 3: out with the main event, if we do go to

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Speaker 3: a decision, and you know, first round Torres, second round

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Speaker 3: kind of close, you would imagine in Mexico City, that's

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Speaker 3: probably gonna lean Torres this way more often than not.

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Speaker 3: So that's what's keeping me from the finish or early

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Speaker 3: prop stuff. But ideally we get into this third round

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Speaker 3: or some point in this fight where we're making money

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Speaker 3: either way.

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Speaker 2: Let's move to the next fight on the card. As

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Speaker 2: we move to our favorite underdog section, you're taking a

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Speaker 2: stab at Kevin Gastlim at past two point fifty against

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Speaker 2: Joe Pifer. I'll have more on this fight in my

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Speaker 2: best bet section, but go ahead and give me your

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Speaker 2: thoughts on Gaslamint Piper, and i'd imagine Gaslum live after

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Speaker 2: round one. Also a potential ad spot for you too.

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Speaker 3: Yeah you said, I believe you said Moreno earlier was

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Speaker 3: one of the most terrible fighters in UFCA history. Kelvin

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Speaker 3: Gasolom much moonderable than that. Has taken some of the

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Speaker 3: biggest shots from some of the toughest strikers in the

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Speaker 3: world and made it all the way to the final belt.

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Speaker 3: You know, dropped four times by Izzy, made it all

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Speaker 3: the way through, made at a competitive fight.

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Speaker 1: I believe, has never been knocked out in his career,

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Speaker 1: never cared, and.

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Speaker 3: He's Yeah, and he's taking on Joe Pifer, who you

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Speaker 3: know allegedly had the hardest punch in the USC Performance

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Speaker 3: Institute or whatever, but there's some debate about that and

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Speaker 3: it's kind of a one note, big power guy. Pifer

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Speaker 3: can grapple a little bit. I think Gastoloum's wrestling is

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Speaker 3: considerably better. So if Gasla manages to not get knocked

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Speaker 3: out here, he's got better output as a middleweight, he's

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Speaker 3: got better cardio, and he's just the more technical fighter

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Speaker 3: all around.

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Speaker 1: At plus two to.

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Speaker 3: Fifty on the money line, I think that's a pretty

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Speaker 3: strong combination. I know you're going to give out a

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Speaker 3: bet that kind of aligns with that view of things.

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Speaker 3: And also Gaslam will be the more popular fighter. We

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Speaker 3: think close decisions probably go his way.

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Speaker 1: All of that. At plus two fifty, I'm really excited about.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and live after round one, I think you know

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Speaker 2: may get the best price too. Pifer is very physical,

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Speaker 2: He's much bigger than Gastoa, and I think he's likelier

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Speaker 2: to win round one than he is to win the

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Speaker 2: other two rounds in this fight, So likely get gasoling,

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Speaker 2: maybe four to one, five to one after round one,

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Speaker 2: but there's a chance, you know, Mexico City elevation, maybe

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Speaker 2: Piper comes out a little bit more conservative, trying to

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Speaker 2: conserve that gas tank.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 2: We see guys flip like freak out and change their

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Speaker 2: strategy sometimes at elevation too, because they don't want to

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Speaker 2: gas out, So definitely consider that as well. Maybe Piper

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Speaker 2: starts a little bit, you know, more conservative, and Gaslin

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Speaker 2: is able to kick his legs a little bit slow

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Speaker 2: him down, and that changes the dynamic of the fight.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna give about one underdog here, Julia Palastri at

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Speaker 2: plus two twenty five against Lupy Godinez. She's also plus

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Speaker 2: three hundred to win by decision, and that is most

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Speaker 2: of the basis for the fight, minus six hundred to

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Speaker 2: go to a decision. Taking the underdog here in a

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Speaker 2: fight that is expected to be close and competitive and

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Speaker 2: go all fifteen minutes, and Pulastree is the more aggressive

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Speaker 2: of the two. Lupy gets caught staring at her opponents,

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Speaker 2: sometimes being unsure whether she should strike or grapple when

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Speaker 2: she is the grappling advantage, she's not always reliable to

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Speaker 2: pursue the path of police's resistance against her opponents, and

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Speaker 2: then when her fights hit the ground, she tends to

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Speaker 2: prioritize submission over position. She's somebody who needs like eight

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Speaker 2: or nine takedowns across a fight to get substantial control

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Speaker 2: time because she's constantly letting her opponents up, because she's

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Speaker 2: trying to progress to positions that she probably shouldn't or

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Speaker 2: trying to attack things that she's not opt you know,

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Speaker 2: in the correct position to actually attack. So I do

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Speaker 2: think Loopy her control could be a little bit lacking

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Speaker 2: at times. Her tendency or proactiveness in terms of wanting

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Speaker 2: to grapple can certainly be lacking at times. And if

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Speaker 2: she's not going to grapple, you're against Tilastree. Pilastree is

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Speaker 2: just going to be the more aggressive fighter coming forward,

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Speaker 2: and we'll see whether Godins can counter her effectively across

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Speaker 2: fifteen minutes and steal a striking decision. But Plasterie the

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Speaker 2: reach advantage. She's five years younger. We've seen her get

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Speaker 2: stuck on her back. If she's made any improvement to

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Speaker 2: her defensive grappling. I think she's going to look like

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Speaker 2: value here at north of two to one plaster two

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Speaker 2: twenty five and then by decision at plus three hundred billion.

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Speaker 2: Any thoughts on that fight? And then you've got a

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Speaker 2: couple other underdogs do you want to get out to

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Speaker 2: go help with those?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, not a ton from a betting standpoint point, Lupy

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Speaker 3: is a tremendous DFS play for the exact reason you described,

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Speaker 3: because she could get eight or nine takedowns and those

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Speaker 3: score it really well, and it's just the perfect setup

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Speaker 3: for that, like you laid it out perfectly. She didn't

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Speaker 3: get a lot of takedowns in her recent fights, but

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Speaker 3: she's fought three straight like submission specialists, and now she's

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Speaker 3: going back to someone who she should be able to

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Speaker 3: control on the ground. As you said, we'll probably go

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Speaker 3: for like a bad ARMBI or something fall off and

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Speaker 3: have to get another takedown multiple times in each round,

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Speaker 3: which we just love for DFS, So kind of rooting

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Speaker 3: for your bet, but really just need her to get

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Speaker 3: eight or nine takedowns.

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Speaker 1: And when the.

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Speaker 3: Other underdog I really like here is Jose Funky Cold

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Speaker 3: Medina not his actual nickname. Hundred percent should be his nickname.

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Speaker 1: That's wild foul.

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Speaker 2: You don't play around with the funky Cole Madeena.

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Speaker 1: Do you know what I was saying?

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Speaker 2: Now?

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Speaker 1: Medina is a month.

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Speaker 3: This reminds me so much of the Carlos Vera upset

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Speaker 3: we got a few weeks ago, where it's a guy

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Speaker 3: who's a little bit more skilled, way worse athlete taking

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Speaker 3: on a debuting fighter who's a bit of a brawler

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Speaker 3: with all the physical and strength advantages in Ativa Gotier.

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Speaker 3: We haven't seen it from Medina in the Contender Series

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Speaker 3: or the UFC, but he's actually primarily a grappler. He's

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Speaker 3: competed in pro submission grappling when I broke him down

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Speaker 3: for the Contender Series, a lot of grappling on the

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Speaker 3: regional series. Gotier in the Contender Series in the first round,

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Speaker 3: got taken down and controlled for four minutes. Then he

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Speaker 3: got a second round knockout. So there's an issue, you know,

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Speaker 3: with if this fight extends. I got Medina plus four

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Speaker 3: hundred earlier in the week. Plus three forty is still fine.

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Speaker 3: I'm not saying he's going to win. He has a

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Speaker 3: very clear path to If he can follow that plan,

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Speaker 3: he should win. Also never been knocked out, seems pretty durable,

337
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Speaker 3: So I like that. I'm going to talk about him

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Speaker 3: and the props. Sean, you just look something up, you

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Speaker 3: look excited about it. Let's share with the class.

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Speaker 2: Well, you got fucky cold Medina, but then you also

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Speaker 2: could have a Tiva somebody that I used to know Gotier.

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Speaker 2: So we've got two potentially elite nicknames. If the UFC

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Speaker 2: wants to go with either of those, happy to offer

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Speaker 2: them up for free Bruce buff or take them away.

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Speaker 1: One hit wonder nicknames no less, Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely absolutely, you've got one other underdog you're considering giving out,

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Speaker 2: maybe Austin Hubbard in the first part of the night.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's honestly kind of the same logic as Medina Gotier,

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Speaker 3: just at a way worse price. We're Hubbard definitely at

350
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Speaker 3: an athletic disadvantage, but tough, durable should be able to

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Speaker 3: grapple better than Mark el Madero's I'm not even one

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Speaker 3: hundred percent sure that I'm playing that, so follow me

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Speaker 3: in the app. If we were getting Medina ask prices,

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Speaker 3: I'd be all over that. I think he's like plus

355
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Speaker 3: one forty plus one fifty somewhere in there. It's close,

356
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Speaker 3: might maybe even a live bet, but similar logic, just

357
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Speaker 3: not as great as a price.

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Speaker 2: Did you mention Medina Live as well? Was that any

359
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Speaker 2: you mentioned?

360
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Speaker 1: Possibly?

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Speaker 3: I have a couple other long shot props on him

362
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Speaker 3: that will touch on in a second. So, but yeah,

363
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Speaker 3: if he can get a take.

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Speaker 1: Oh, I'm struggling.

365
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Speaker 3: With Medina Live because if he can't get a takedown early,

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Speaker 3: he's probably not gonna get a takedown later on even

367
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Speaker 3: if he survives the round, unless go Da totally tires out.

368
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Speaker 3: If he does get the takedown earlier, we're getting a

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Speaker 3: worse price.

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Speaker 1: So it's a.

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Speaker 3: Pretty narrow needle to thread on a Medina Live bet.

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Speaker 3: It could be there, it might, but like it's hard

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Speaker 3: to see exactly how that scenario plays out that I

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Speaker 3: would want it.

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Speaker 2: March is the best month of the year, not just

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Speaker 2: for sports, but also for getting the best deal in

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Speaker 2: Action Pro. Right now, you can get Action Pro for

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Speaker 2: just over five dollars a month for the entire year,

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Speaker 2: and since it's March, that means the UNSAA tournament is

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Speaker 2: in full swing. With an Action Pro count, you'll get

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Speaker 2: Sean Curder's bracket simulations. Nick Gibbons player props, stuckies picks

382
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Speaker 2: up thirty minutes before they go out to everybody else,

383
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Speaker 2: and more plus. Since his higher year of action pro

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Speaker 2: it'd be covered for UFC, Major League Baseball, next college football,

385
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Speaker 2: and NFL seasons too. Just go to actionework dot com

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Speaker 2: slash march to get on board. To move on to

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Speaker 2: our top props, I've got a number of props I'm

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Speaker 2: considering giving out. This is not a good card in

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Speaker 2: my opinion for betting money lines. I think there's a

390
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Speaker 2: lot of favorites that are appropriately priced. I gave out

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Speaker 2: the one underdog I'm interested in. That might be the

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Speaker 2: only money line I bet on the card, and even

393
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Speaker 2: that not a force play, but like it's borderline for

394
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Speaker 2: me in terms of betting polastree. But there are a

395
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Speaker 2: number of ghosts the decision props I like on this card.

396
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Speaker 2: There's a few ends inside the distance props I like

397
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Speaker 2: on this card. But before we get there, Billy, since

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Speaker 2: we were already talking about Jose Funky Cold Medina, let's

399
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Speaker 2: stick with the two props you like for his fight

400
00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:39,280
Speaker 2: more plus money on Medina, go ahead.

401
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Speaker 3: Yeah, Medina to get a takedown on DraftKings was plus

402
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Speaker 3: two twenty five at least as of last night.

403
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Speaker 1: Check it.

404
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Speaker 3: Those move all over the place like crazy. I would

405
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Speaker 3: play that at anything north of like plus one fifty.

406
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Speaker 3: It correlates very well with how he has a shot

407
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Speaker 3: at winning. And then Medina by submission nineteen to one.

408
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Speaker 3: Not saying it's gonna happen, but if Medina wins, I

409
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Speaker 3: was surprised to see submission as a least likely win

410
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Speaker 3: condition in the market.

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Speaker 1: You could make a.

412
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Speaker 3: Case it should be his most likely win condition, maybe

413
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Speaker 3: behind decision, but like they should be fairly close. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: those two, I'm funky cold Mandina. We're going to speak

415
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Speaker 3: that one into existence, and I'm structuring it so if

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Speaker 3: he gets a takedown, even if he loses the fight, overall,

417
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Speaker 3: you know, I come out slightly ahead. Play with that,

418
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Speaker 3: you know, risk exposure being what it is. Find how

419
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Speaker 3: you want to play that. Obviously not too big on

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Speaker 3: submission at nineteen to one. That's zero point one unit

421
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Speaker 3: for me.

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Speaker 2: So I've got four fights I want to talk about

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Speaker 2: for a proper respective Billy. I want to get your

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Speaker 2: thoughts on these as well, just so I'm not talking

425
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Speaker 2: for ten minutes consecutively. So if you don't have any

426
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Speaker 2: thoughts on the fight. After I throw it to you,

427
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Speaker 2: just tell me past and I'll move on to the

428
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Speaker 2: next one. If you do have any thoughts, please go

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Speaker 2: ahead and give them out. The first being David Martinez

430
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Speaker 2: against Simon Olivera. Martinez really impressed me on Contender Series, Billy.

431
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Speaker 2: I'm not sure what your thoughts were on him. Wef

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Speaker 2: he and his sister. I believe earned contracts on the

433
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Speaker 2: same night off a Contender Series, and Olvera has a

434
00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:03,480
Speaker 2: big reaching matage here Simon Olivera. But Martinez has the

435
00:20:03,520 --> 00:20:06,560
Speaker 2: big cardio and durability edge, and I think he takes

436
00:20:06,560 --> 00:20:08,280
Speaker 2: over this fight in the second and third rounds. I

437
00:20:08,280 --> 00:20:10,560
Speaker 2: think he wins the fight from open, but I think

438
00:20:10,600 --> 00:20:12,960
Speaker 2: he really takes over in rounds two. In rounds three

439
00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:16,080
Speaker 2: after kicking Olvera's legs a bunch and slowing him down.

440
00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:18,280
Speaker 2: Once he slows him down, I think he starts putting

441
00:20:18,280 --> 00:20:22,080
Speaker 2: the punching combinations together and eventually finishing him. Expecting more

442
00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:25,320
Speaker 2: of a nutritional finish here. Though at elevation Martinez inside

443
00:20:25,320 --> 00:20:27,239
Speaker 2: the distance plus one thirty. I like I made that

444
00:20:27,280 --> 00:20:29,119
Speaker 2: minus money, but I also like him to win in

445
00:20:29,200 --> 00:20:32,720
Speaker 2: round two at plus six to fifty around three at

446
00:20:32,800 --> 00:20:34,800
Speaker 2: nine to one, Billy, what were your thoughts on David

447
00:20:34,840 --> 00:20:37,560
Speaker 2: Martinez generally as a prospect and do you have any

448
00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:39,200
Speaker 2: thoughts on this fight from a vetting perspective.

449
00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:42,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, I wasn't like super high on him. He wasn't

450
00:20:42,240 --> 00:20:44,840
Speaker 3: one of my favorites coming off the season, but definitely solid,

451
00:20:45,160 --> 00:20:48,439
Speaker 3: Definitely a guy who can stick around. Got in the

452
00:20:48,480 --> 00:20:50,840
Speaker 3: same season as his sister, but they fought on different nights,

453
00:20:50,840 --> 00:20:52,920
Speaker 3: so it's not the exact same event, which would have

454
00:20:52,960 --> 00:20:54,760
Speaker 3: been absolutely not to have they done it that way,

455
00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:57,960
Speaker 3: like imagine the pressure on both of them. But yeah,

456
00:20:58,040 --> 00:21:00,240
Speaker 3: I think I agree with you. The one thing that

457
00:21:01,000 --> 00:21:03,480
Speaker 3: give me a little bit of pause, and you covered

458
00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:05,879
Speaker 3: it with saying auditional finish is Martine is more of

459
00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:09,240
Speaker 3: like a taekwondo kind of point fighter a style, but

460
00:21:09,320 --> 00:21:10,560
Speaker 3: does mikesen those like kicks.

461
00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:11,560
Speaker 1: Well, if this.

462
00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:14,840
Speaker 3: Weren't at elevation, I would probably be all over Martinez decision.

463
00:21:15,560 --> 00:21:17,720
Speaker 3: I get your logic. I'm not bet neither side of it.

464
00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:20,320
Speaker 3: I do think he can wear him down. It's just

465
00:21:20,359 --> 00:21:22,399
Speaker 3: a matter of whether he wears him down enough with

466
00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:24,800
Speaker 3: the time we have to get that finish.

467
00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:27,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely prefer the like, like I said, the plus

468
00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:29,280
Speaker 2: six to fifty and plus nine hundred as opposed to

469
00:21:29,320 --> 00:21:31,720
Speaker 2: plus one thirty inside the distance. I don't really think

470
00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:34,800
Speaker 2: he wins in round one at a consistent clip. I

471
00:21:34,800 --> 00:21:37,160
Speaker 2: think he builds to a finish here, especially at elevation.

472
00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:42,080
Speaker 2: Rinaldo Lazy Boy Rodriguez against Kevin Borgis. I made this

473
00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:44,960
Speaker 2: fight about minus one sixty seven to go to a decision.

474
00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:47,240
Speaker 2: I like the fight GTD at minus one forty two,

475
00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:50,000
Speaker 2: and I also like Lazy Boy by decision at plus

476
00:21:50,160 --> 00:21:54,120
Speaker 2: two thirty. He's very bad striking defense, but he's incredibly durable,

477
00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:56,879
Speaker 2: and he's also like tenacious. He's not a great wrestler,

478
00:21:56,920 --> 00:22:00,560
Speaker 2: he's just very tenacious in terms of proactively grappling, kind

479
00:22:00,560 --> 00:22:02,760
Speaker 2: of like a poor man's Anthony here at Andez a

480
00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:04,560
Speaker 2: little bit in terms of the overall skills that you

481
00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:05,440
Speaker 2: see that a little bit belly.

482
00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:07,920
Speaker 1: Maybe I get where you're going with it.

483
00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:11,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, just like it's I think fighters like this

484
00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:13,960
Speaker 2: are difficult to handicap because when you watch tape, you're like,

485
00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:15,879
Speaker 2: oh my god, this guy just eight punches, like what

486
00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:18,840
Speaker 2: is he even good at? But when you're fighting against them,

487
00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:20,840
Speaker 2: you're like this guy needs to like fuck off, like

488
00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:24,360
Speaker 2: just get away from me, because especially at Mexico City

489
00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:28,520
Speaker 2: in elevation, Rodriguez is gonna potentially mal borgeous, like just

490
00:22:28,560 --> 00:22:32,760
Speaker 2: in terms of not going away like body on body,

491
00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:37,520
Speaker 2: forcing it to be closed. Grappling exchanges NonStop. Borges is powerful.

492
00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:39,920
Speaker 2: He won around against Josh Fan heard him early, ended

493
00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:42,360
Speaker 2: up fading down the stretch of that fight. Not sure

494
00:22:42,359 --> 00:22:44,960
Speaker 2: if that was unshort notice or not. He does a

495
00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:47,760
Speaker 2: decent cardio, you know, in general, I don't think he's

496
00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:49,600
Speaker 2: a guy who's gonna get finished in the second or

497
00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:52,359
Speaker 2: third round. But I do think his effectiveness, the power,

498
00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:54,680
Speaker 2: the output is all gonna wan in the second or

499
00:22:54,720 --> 00:22:57,959
Speaker 2: third rounds, especially as Rodriguez starts sticking to him grappling

500
00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:01,160
Speaker 2: a little bit more cauld see Rodriguez sbmission later submission,

501
00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:05,800
Speaker 2: you know, via nutritional damage essentially. But I do expect

502
00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:08,040
Speaker 2: these two to roll around for fifteen minutes, strike it out.

503
00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:10,880
Speaker 2: I think Rodriguez takes a close decision. I don't think

504
00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:14,000
Speaker 2: he covers his money line price. I think this looks competitive,

505
00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:17,040
Speaker 2: but I don't think Rodriguez gets the nod in Mexico City.

506
00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:19,800
Speaker 2: So fight GTD my favorite bet at minus one forty

507
00:23:19,800 --> 00:23:22,400
Speaker 2: two up to minus one fifty, but then also Rodriguez

508
00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:24,520
Speaker 2: by decision and live after round one as well. I

509
00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:28,560
Speaker 2: think Borgeous his best round will likely be early Billy.

510
00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:31,920
Speaker 2: Any thoughts on Lazy Boy against Kevin Borhas, Yeah, I

511
00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:32,320
Speaker 2: kind of.

512
00:23:32,320 --> 00:23:35,879
Speaker 3: Like to go to decision angle just because Borjas, I

513
00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:39,440
Speaker 3: think is better than his owe and two UFC record indicates,

514
00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:41,960
Speaker 3: like when you watch his fights, he seems better than that.

515
00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:44,000
Speaker 3: But I didn't feel great about the plus three and

516
00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:46,080
Speaker 3: a half, so maybe this is a way, you know,

517
00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:50,760
Speaker 3: to kind of bet on Borjas being undervalued but not

518
00:23:51,080 --> 00:23:52,120
Speaker 3: likely to actually win.

519
00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:53,960
Speaker 1: So from that standpoint, I like it.

520
00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:56,240
Speaker 3: I'm not sure if there's a better way to chase

521
00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:58,399
Speaker 3: down that thesis, but I'm not really seeing one, so

522
00:23:58,480 --> 00:23:59,520
Speaker 3: I like where you're going with that.

523
00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:03,439
Speaker 2: C J. Vergar versus Edgar Shirez flyweight fights typically go

524
00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:06,399
Speaker 2: to a decision about a fifty five percent clip. This

525
00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:08,840
Speaker 2: fight is minus one ten to go to a decision,

526
00:24:08,840 --> 00:24:11,440
Speaker 2: in Shirez is plus one to eighty to win by decision.

527
00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:14,239
Speaker 2: I like both of those bets. He's favored. He is

528
00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:17,520
Speaker 2: the likelier finisher of the pair. I think more importantly,

529
00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:19,640
Speaker 2: we need to watch Forgara on the scales. Forgars missweight

530
00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:21,960
Speaker 2: three times, and when he misses weight, he's the guy

531
00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:24,879
Speaker 2: who like actually tries to make weight and ends up

532
00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:27,560
Speaker 2: killing himself as a result and then has no durability

533
00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:30,199
Speaker 2: and no cardio on fight day. I don't think his

534
00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:33,000
Speaker 2: cardio's bad when he has a good weight cut. I

535
00:24:33,040 --> 00:24:35,560
Speaker 2: do think it's terrible when he has a bad weight cut.

536
00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:37,960
Speaker 2: And sometimes like guys missweight and they actually have better

537
00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:40,800
Speaker 2: gas tanks because they didn't actually try to make the weight. CJ,

538
00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:43,960
Speaker 2: especially now that he's missweight three times, if he misses again,

539
00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:46,119
Speaker 2: he's cut, he will do everything in his power to

540
00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:48,200
Speaker 2: make weight. As a result. If he doesn't make weight,

541
00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:50,160
Speaker 2: I think he's going to be sapped on the scale.

542
00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:53,120
Speaker 2: So this is dependent on CJ. Viergar A making weight

543
00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:56,480
Speaker 2: looking fine on the scales on Friday. But Shiraz is younger,

544
00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:59,199
Speaker 2: He's five years younger, He's more durable, he has the

545
00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:01,800
Speaker 2: reach advantage, more power. I think he wins this fight

546
00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:05,240
Speaker 2: pretty comfortably. I think he wins by decision more often

547
00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:09,119
Speaker 2: than the betting market suggests. So Shirez regard goes to

548
00:25:09,160 --> 00:25:13,000
Speaker 2: decision minus one ten may actually prefer the Shire's decision

549
00:25:13,080 --> 00:25:15,760
Speaker 2: prop there at plus money because I'm pretty comfortable with

550
00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:19,160
Speaker 2: him ultimately winning this fight. Really, any thoughts on Virgara

551
00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:21,159
Speaker 2: and Shire is one of several flyweight fights we have

552
00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:21,600
Speaker 2: on this card.

553
00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:24,439
Speaker 3: I mean good on the UFC for not giving us

554
00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:26,920
Speaker 3: like heavyweight and like heavyweight to alta dude this time,

555
00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:28,840
Speaker 3: because they've anymore.

556
00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:31,760
Speaker 2: There's like no heavyweights left on the roster. They're slowly

557
00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:34,640
Speaker 2: eliminating the division. People don't realize, but yeah, yeah, thankfully

558
00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:37,640
Speaker 2: they What was it the Utah card that they put

559
00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:39,960
Speaker 2: like Alex Pahera on right? Was it was an Alex

560
00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:42,720
Speaker 2: and Jahan on the Utah card? They put some big

561
00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:44,720
Speaker 2: dudes at elevation and they've been awful fight.

562
00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:49,280
Speaker 3: But on this fight specifically, you mentioned Vergara's wait misses,

563
00:25:49,280 --> 00:25:52,119
Speaker 3: and there's been more of them. Chyrez is one in

564
00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:55,239
Speaker 3: three between the UFC and the Contender Series, and the

565
00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:57,880
Speaker 3: only fight he won he missed weight by five pounds.

566
00:25:58,000 --> 00:25:59,959
Speaker 1: He came in at one thirty for a flyweight fight.

567
00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:03,359
Speaker 3: No, So, like, I don't want to bet this fight

568
00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:05,359
Speaker 3: just because I don't have a lot of faith this

569
00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:09,159
Speaker 3: fight is gonna happen given the weight missing between both guys.

570
00:26:09,400 --> 00:26:11,960
Speaker 3: I like what you're saying. I think Chirez is better.

571
00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:15,760
Speaker 3: There's just so much to parse out between both of

572
00:26:15,800 --> 00:26:18,360
Speaker 3: them struggling on the scales. You know, if one guy

573
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:21,720
Speaker 3: misses weight, not the other. If one guy misses weight

574
00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:23,960
Speaker 3: by a little, one misses by a lot. Like, there's

575
00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:25,760
Speaker 3: a lot of moving parts here that I don't feel

576
00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:28,720
Speaker 3: super confident talking about before we have answers to.

577
00:26:29,280 --> 00:26:32,040
Speaker 2: Fair enough final fight I want to talk about from

578
00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:36,399
Speaker 2: a proper respective gaber and Miranda against Jamal Emmers. I

579
00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:38,560
Speaker 2: lean to Emmers inside the distance here at minus one

580
00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:41,720
Speaker 2: twenty five, consider the under one and a half rounds

581
00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:44,640
Speaker 2: at plus one twenty But overall, I think this fight

582
00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:46,880
Speaker 2: ends inside the distance more often than the odds suggests.

583
00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:49,800
Speaker 2: I have it at about seventy percent minus two thirty five.

584
00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:54,240
Speaker 2: And fly Miranda throws bombs like he wings punches, but

585
00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:57,840
Speaker 2: he is the grappling upside here. And Emmers is the

586
00:26:57,880 --> 00:27:01,159
Speaker 2: type of fighter who is super skilled, underrated based on

587
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:04,840
Speaker 2: all the actual skills. He has great cardio, good athlete

588
00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:08,719
Speaker 2: in general, but he does dumb shit inside the cage,

589
00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:12,040
Speaker 2: like he will knock a guy down like Pat Sabatini

590
00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:14,800
Speaker 2: and then follow him to the ground and get submitted. He,

591
00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:17,320
Speaker 2: you know, is typically a guy who will have a

592
00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:20,320
Speaker 2: big wrestling advantage over opponent and not pursue it or

593
00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:22,119
Speaker 2: have a shrinking advantage over a guy like Patsy to

594
00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:25,280
Speaker 2: Tabatiti and try to grapple, so Emers does not take

595
00:27:25,280 --> 00:27:29,720
Speaker 2: the path with rese resistance. Basically, ever, he's very likely

596
00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:32,440
Speaker 2: to hurt Miranda and then like follow him to the

597
00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:34,240
Speaker 2: ground and get his back take and get submitted, or

598
00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:38,080
Speaker 2: do something incredibly stupid. So I do think both guys

599
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:40,760
Speaker 2: have finishing upside here. I think Embers has more finishing

600
00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:42,720
Speaker 2: upside because he's the better athlete. I think he can

601
00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:46,200
Speaker 2: probably win this fight in rounds two or rounds three

602
00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:49,359
Speaker 2: if he's patient plus four twenty round two ten to

603
00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:53,199
Speaker 2: one round three I think are interesting bets. But overall,

604
00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:55,960
Speaker 2: fight ten inside the distance Emer's inside the distance under

605
00:27:55,960 --> 00:27:58,640
Speaker 2: one and a half. All things I'm can consider playing

606
00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:01,040
Speaker 2: on what I view as a not a binary fight

607
00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:04,440
Speaker 2: because Embers can grapple, but a fight where I think

608
00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:07,720
Speaker 2: either Emers wins v or Ko from Randa wins Vias measure,

609
00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:09,800
Speaker 2: So any thoughts on the under or any of the

610
00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:11,320
Speaker 2: props on that five billion, then we'll get to some

611
00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:11,760
Speaker 2: best bet.

612
00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:14,160
Speaker 1: Yeah. I like the knockout.

613
00:28:14,240 --> 00:28:17,160
Speaker 3: He's this is gonna be a weird comparison, but we

614
00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:20,280
Speaker 3: we talked about Brendon Allen coming into the Anthony Hernandez fight,

615
00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:22,560
Speaker 3: where we're like, the skills are all there, but he

616
00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:23,600
Speaker 3: manages to not.

617
00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:24,679
Speaker 1: Win fights that he should.

618
00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:28,359
Speaker 3: And Jamal Emmers is that but like way worse about

619
00:28:28,359 --> 00:28:31,720
Speaker 3: it than Brendan Allen. He has also alternated wins and

620
00:28:31,760 --> 00:28:33,680
Speaker 3: losses since getting in the UFC and is coming off

621
00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:36,600
Speaker 3: a loss, so that is a good sign for Jamal Emmers.

622
00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:38,440
Speaker 3: I think you can get a knockout in the second

623
00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:40,600
Speaker 3: or third minute if he just doesn't do anything stupid

624
00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:44,400
Speaker 3: and uses his reach advantage. It's almost like the Nacho

625
00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:49,000
Speaker 3: Blankeneer Nacho Manuel Torres fight where Emers has the reach

626
00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:51,600
Speaker 3: advantage against the guy who's gonna win punches. So if

627
00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:53,479
Speaker 3: you can just step back and land a straight shot,

628
00:28:53,640 --> 00:28:56,280
Speaker 3: it should be there at all points. Don't have a

629
00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:59,000
Speaker 3: lot of faith he actually does it. Emers koh plus

630
00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:01,400
Speaker 3: one twenty five makes a lot another guy I really

631
00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:05,479
Speaker 3: like for like DFS tournaments, because if he wins, it's

632
00:29:05,480 --> 00:29:07,560
Speaker 3: probably going to be a pretty quick knockout or a

633
00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:11,000
Speaker 3: knockout at some point, but he might just do something

634
00:29:11,080 --> 00:29:11,920
Speaker 3: dumb and get submitted.

635
00:29:12,840 --> 00:29:16,360
Speaker 2: Seems very likely based upon his historical fight history. But

636
00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:20,320
Speaker 2: Jamal Emer is technically a parlay value for me this

637
00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:22,880
Speaker 2: week along with Martinez.

638
00:29:23,360 --> 00:29:23,760
Speaker 1: We'll see.

639
00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:25,680
Speaker 2: I mean, they're both north of minus four hundred. I

640
00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:27,640
Speaker 2: don't know if I'm gonna end up putting those together.

641
00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:30,440
Speaker 2: We've seen a number of big underdogs winning lately in

642
00:29:30,520 --> 00:29:32,400
Speaker 2: the sport as well. Last year is such a favorite

643
00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:35,280
Speaker 2: heavy year. I mean, sports in general have been so

644
00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:38,360
Speaker 2: favored heavy over the past year plus. UFC we're starting

645
00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:40,960
Speaker 2: to get a little bit more underdogs cashing of late,

646
00:29:41,000 --> 00:29:43,760
Speaker 2: and I do think we've mentioned that the lines have

647
00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:48,160
Speaker 2: been a little overinflated towards the dogs this year. Let's

648
00:29:48,200 --> 00:29:50,240
Speaker 2: move to our best bets. Billy, you give out Christian

649
00:29:50,320 --> 00:29:53,440
Speaker 2: Rodriguez earlier in this week, and your luck rankings at

650
00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:56,959
Speaker 2: minus one forty. He's currently as high as minus one

651
00:29:57,080 --> 00:30:01,360
Speaker 2: seventy now at DraftKings. So where's your cutoff price on

652
00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:04,360
Speaker 2: Sea Rod against Melkie Costa. I'm interested in a lot

653
00:30:04,440 --> 00:30:06,520
Speaker 2: bet on Sea Rod after round one and any fight

654
00:30:06,560 --> 00:30:08,840
Speaker 2: that he's in, but especially in this fight against Malki Costa,

655
00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:11,280
Speaker 2: where I think he has cardio advantage, and then any

656
00:30:11,280 --> 00:30:14,240
Speaker 2: other props were totals you're considering on this fight as well.

657
00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:16,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, I kind of hate doing this because my best

658
00:30:16,840 --> 00:30:18,719
Speaker 3: bet is a bet I made four days ago and

659
00:30:18,760 --> 00:30:20,960
Speaker 3: you can't make right now. But you know, shameless plug,

660
00:30:21,000 --> 00:30:23,640
Speaker 3: please go read those luck ratings. You know we're getting

661
00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:26,640
Speaker 3: the CLV pretty consistently, even when the fights don't actually win.

662
00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:29,880
Speaker 3: I think i'd probably be okay with like up to

663
00:30:29,920 --> 00:30:32,520
Speaker 3: minus one eighty or so on c ROD. At this point,

664
00:30:32,600 --> 00:30:34,880
Speaker 3: it's definitely a final bet and not a best bet

665
00:30:34,960 --> 00:30:37,880
Speaker 3: versus the minus one forty. Not only does he have

666
00:30:37,920 --> 00:30:41,280
Speaker 3: the cardio advantage kind of in general against everyone and

667
00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:44,520
Speaker 3: his hit elevation, Melkie Costa fought three weeks ago and

668
00:30:44,600 --> 00:30:48,480
Speaker 3: stepped up to take this on short notice. My assumption,

669
00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:51,440
Speaker 3: or like guess on a lot of these situations is

670
00:30:51,480 --> 00:30:53,680
Speaker 3: they didn't ask him on Sunday if he was going

671
00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:55,720
Speaker 3: to fight three weeks later. He took a couple of

672
00:30:55,800 --> 00:30:58,880
Speaker 3: days off, probably put on some weight, had a good time, relaxed,

673
00:30:58,960 --> 00:31:02,360
Speaker 3: enjoyed his win, and then they asked him, which is

674
00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:03,880
Speaker 3: hard to come back from. It's hard to jump right

675
00:31:03,960 --> 00:31:05,840
Speaker 3: back into training, so you're usually a little bit beat

676
00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:08,280
Speaker 3: up from the last camp, none of which would be

677
00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:10,840
Speaker 3: a huge deal if we weren't at this massive elevation,

678
00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:13,680
Speaker 3: which makes that even harder. And it's kind of a weird,

679
00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:16,880
Speaker 3: weirdly big step down in competition for Sea Rod, who's

680
00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:21,480
Speaker 3: just beaten undefeated prospect after undefeated prospect throughout his UFC run.

681
00:31:21,840 --> 00:31:25,240
Speaker 3: Costa is fine. I think he's decent and like we'll

682
00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:28,120
Speaker 3: stick around as a mid level featherweight for a while

683
00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:30,840
Speaker 3: in the UFC, But I don't think he's anywhere near

684
00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:34,760
Speaker 3: as talented as Austin Bashi or Cameron Samon or Isaac

685
00:31:34,800 --> 00:31:38,080
Speaker 3: Dulgarian or Ral Rosis, all of whom s Rod took

686
00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:42,080
Speaker 3: the undefeated records from. So Christian Rodrig gets considerably better

687
00:31:42,160 --> 00:31:46,640
Speaker 3: overall fighter. I think, very clear grappling advantage should he

688
00:31:47,040 --> 00:31:49,400
Speaker 3: choose to use it, and then also the cardio, so

689
00:31:50,320 --> 00:31:53,520
Speaker 3: don't love the price now, would still take it. Probably

690
00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:56,240
Speaker 3: about minus one eighty I think would be where I

691
00:31:56,320 --> 00:31:58,200
Speaker 3: draw the line for for sure.

692
00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:01,600
Speaker 2: Just an interesting fight for Sea Rod. It's more like

693
00:32:01,640 --> 00:32:04,320
Speaker 2: the salam In fight in that he's not going to

694
00:32:04,360 --> 00:32:06,520
Speaker 2: have to resist the grappling, you know, as much as

695
00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:12,880
Speaker 2: he has had to against other opponents like pross By Bulgarian.

696
00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:16,400
Speaker 2: You know it's it is not. Sea Rot is awesome

697
00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:21,120
Speaker 2: at resisting, having better cardio and then taking over against

698
00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:24,160
Speaker 2: guys once they can't execute their a game plan. These

699
00:32:24,160 --> 00:32:26,200
Speaker 2: two are going to be striking it out. Se Rot

700
00:32:26,280 --> 00:32:30,040
Speaker 2: is super talented striking, has really flashy spinning attacks like

701
00:32:30,360 --> 00:32:33,320
Speaker 2: I would love to see him in more kickboxing matches.

702
00:32:34,280 --> 00:32:36,160
Speaker 2: I would love to see him against guys who are

703
00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:38,280
Speaker 2: a little bit more reckless so that he can actually

704
00:32:38,360 --> 00:32:42,640
Speaker 2: show off like his technique and his dynamic approach. This

705
00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:46,520
Speaker 2: could be an interesting, close, sing competitive striking fight in

706
00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:49,280
Speaker 2: my opinion, where if Sea Rod doesn't proactively grapple, I

707
00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:52,400
Speaker 2: do think the scores and you know, the fight could

708
00:32:52,440 --> 00:32:55,040
Speaker 2: be a little bit closer than the money line suggests.

709
00:32:55,040 --> 00:32:57,000
Speaker 2: Srod has been awesome as an underdog, Like I said,

710
00:32:57,040 --> 00:33:01,360
Speaker 2: awesome resisting and then taking over. I'm definitely interested live

711
00:33:01,400 --> 00:33:03,520
Speaker 2: after round one. As you mentioned the short notice angle

712
00:33:04,040 --> 00:33:06,960
Speaker 2: for Milchie Costa, but that may be the best price

713
00:33:07,000 --> 00:33:09,320
Speaker 2: that you get on Sea Rod. Maybe not pre fight,

714
00:33:09,480 --> 00:33:12,600
Speaker 2: I would I would personally wait, you know, especially now

715
00:33:12,600 --> 00:33:15,760
Speaker 2: that it's moved closer to minus one sixty five. I

716
00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:18,840
Speaker 2: think round one is super competitive, Sea Rod may lose it,

717
00:33:19,000 --> 00:33:21,160
Speaker 2: and then I think he takes over in rounds two

718
00:33:21,200 --> 00:33:23,880
Speaker 2: and rounds three, But no bet on that fight for me.

719
00:33:24,360 --> 00:33:27,520
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go back to the feature bat between Kevin

720
00:33:27,560 --> 00:33:31,280
Speaker 2: Gastlam and Joe Pifer for my best bet goes to

721
00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:34,120
Speaker 2: decision at minus one oh two. Walterweight fights go to

722
00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:38,120
Speaker 2: decision of a thirty eight percent clip gaslum, though is

723
00:33:38,360 --> 00:33:40,360
Speaker 2: I should say middleway fights go to decision at thirty

724
00:33:40,440 --> 00:33:43,640
Speaker 2: eight percent clip gaslum is really more of a wealterweight

725
00:33:43,760 --> 00:33:46,960
Speaker 2: fighting at middleweight. The walterweights get to a decision closer

726
00:33:47,000 --> 00:33:48,720
Speaker 2: to forty five percent of the time. There's a big

727
00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:51,040
Speaker 2: gap between one hundred and seventy one hundred and eighty

728
00:33:51,040 --> 00:33:53,400
Speaker 2: five pound divisions, and once you get to two oh five, it,

729
00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:56,960
Speaker 2: you know, increases even more. Heavyweights don't actually finish each

730
00:33:57,000 --> 00:33:58,840
Speaker 2: other as much as the light heavyweights because they slow

731
00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:01,160
Speaker 2: down a lot more quickly. It's just like an interesting

732
00:34:01,240 --> 00:34:04,200
Speaker 2: dynamic thing, you know. You go down the scale too,

733
00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:07,160
Speaker 2: the flyweights. The flyways actually have higher finishing rates than

734
00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:09,560
Speaker 2: the one thirty five ers and one forty. I don't

735
00:34:09,560 --> 00:34:11,000
Speaker 2: know if there's a thing where like once you get

736
00:34:11,040 --> 00:34:14,520
Speaker 2: to a certain lower weight that your durability like lessons,

737
00:34:14,600 --> 00:34:16,240
Speaker 2: or if these guys are just a little bit faster.

738
00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:18,799
Speaker 2: I do think the sliding scale though of UFC finish

739
00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:21,680
Speaker 2: rates is really interesting because you know, near the edges

740
00:34:21,719 --> 00:34:23,680
Speaker 2: of like the weight divisions, they actually like go the

741
00:34:23,719 --> 00:34:25,719
Speaker 2: opposite direction again, which just.

742
00:34:25,719 --> 00:34:27,479
Speaker 1: Goes out there.

743
00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:30,760
Speaker 2: Though there is yes, like they're just not flyweights.

744
00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:33,440
Speaker 3: If you get one guy who can get a lot

745
00:34:33,480 --> 00:34:36,000
Speaker 3: of finishes at flyways, it excuse the sample a lot

746
00:34:36,040 --> 00:34:39,960
Speaker 3: more than like there's seventeen bantam weight fights every weekend.

747
00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:42,160
Speaker 3: It feels like we're flyways are a little bit harder

748
00:34:42,200 --> 00:34:42,800
Speaker 3: to find.

749
00:34:43,120 --> 00:34:45,160
Speaker 2: And the bantam light is also just the deeper division.

750
00:34:45,200 --> 00:34:47,239
Speaker 2: In general, bantam weights have the lowest finish rate in

751
00:34:47,280 --> 00:34:49,440
Speaker 2: the UFC, and over the past three years, bandom weights

752
00:34:49,440 --> 00:34:52,000
Speaker 2: aren't finishing each other at all. It's like a thirty

753
00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:54,880
Speaker 2: eight percent finish rate at bantomlyight. It's ridiculous how talented

754
00:34:54,920 --> 00:34:56,920
Speaker 2: that division is. And I really think it's more like

755
00:34:56,920 --> 00:34:58,640
Speaker 2: a talent issue than it is like a you know,

756
00:34:59,120 --> 00:35:00,880
Speaker 2: a relative weight scale. I think if you went to

757
00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:03,040
Speaker 2: other regional promotions, it would it would balance out a

758
00:35:03,080 --> 00:35:05,960
Speaker 2: little bit better. And then heavyweights too. You know, we'll

759
00:35:05,960 --> 00:35:08,399
Speaker 2: get to my best bet a minute. But heavyweights, they're

760
00:35:08,440 --> 00:35:10,960
Speaker 2: often fighting main events, right, They're sticking these guys in

761
00:35:11,040 --> 00:35:13,000
Speaker 2: main events where they have to like conserve the cardio.

762
00:35:13,040 --> 00:35:15,120
Speaker 2: And you would think there would be increase finishing chances

763
00:35:15,160 --> 00:35:17,120
Speaker 2: in main events, but actually I think they slow down

764
00:35:17,160 --> 00:35:19,719
Speaker 2: and like don't finish each other as a result. So, yeah,

765
00:35:19,719 --> 00:35:22,840
Speaker 2: the samples get skewed. There's fewer heavyweights, there's fewer flyweights,

766
00:35:22,880 --> 00:35:25,200
Speaker 2: and then I think more of those heavyweight fights end

767
00:35:25,280 --> 00:35:29,120
Speaker 2: up being main events. But you know, just just to

768
00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:31,000
Speaker 2: go back to your points about Gaslom and like his

769
00:35:31,280 --> 00:35:35,400
Speaker 2: extreme durability. You know, as I said, walterweight fights, middleweight

770
00:35:35,440 --> 00:35:39,160
Speaker 2: fights end inside the distance like sixty five to seventy

771
00:35:39,200 --> 00:35:42,759
Speaker 2: percent of the time. Gaslom's gone to decision at about

772
00:35:42,800 --> 00:35:46,879
Speaker 2: a seventy percent clip in the UFC, never chaoed, as

773
00:35:46,920 --> 00:35:48,520
Speaker 2: you said, I don't even know if he's been knocked

774
00:35:48,520 --> 00:35:50,040
Speaker 2: down at any point.

775
00:35:51,120 --> 00:35:54,320
Speaker 1: He got fat like all times by Izzy, but recovered.

776
00:35:54,520 --> 00:35:55,399
Speaker 2: That's that easy fight.

777
00:35:55,480 --> 00:35:59,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, we both said he has great durability.

778
00:35:59,600 --> 00:36:02,000
Speaker 3: It's almost probably more accurate to say he has like

779
00:36:02,080 --> 00:36:05,319
Speaker 3: elite recoverability because he gets rocked and you think he's

780
00:36:05,360 --> 00:36:08,040
Speaker 3: done what seems like every fight, and then he's fined

781
00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:10,520
Speaker 3: four seconds later, So that might actually be a better

782
00:36:10,560 --> 00:36:12,600
Speaker 3: way to put it, but same concept either way.

783
00:36:13,080 --> 00:36:17,359
Speaker 2: Absolutely, yeah, And I mean because he's fighting essentially at

784
00:36:17,360 --> 00:36:19,000
Speaker 2: a higher weight class than he should. He is a

785
00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:21,520
Speaker 2: great gas tank. You know, he can maintain his cardio

786
00:36:21,600 --> 00:36:23,759
Speaker 2: for fifteen minutes. Doesn't look like he would, doesn't look

787
00:36:23,800 --> 00:36:25,600
Speaker 2: like he's in the best shape, but he has a

788
00:36:25,600 --> 00:36:28,040
Speaker 2: great gas tank. I can wrestle a little bit too,

789
00:36:28,040 --> 00:36:30,960
Speaker 2: and I think the wrestling is enough to counteract any

790
00:36:31,040 --> 00:36:34,840
Speaker 2: grappling that Piper Piper may try to implement here, because

791
00:36:34,840 --> 00:36:37,160
Speaker 2: that's where I think the fight finishes most consistently, is

792
00:36:37,200 --> 00:36:40,080
Speaker 2: Piper via submission. Gaslin has been submitted three times. I

793
00:36:40,120 --> 00:36:43,799
Speaker 2: think Piper, if he gets on top, has a grappling advantage,

794
00:36:44,080 --> 00:36:46,400
Speaker 2: and he's also the much bigger man five inches taller,

795
00:36:46,719 --> 00:36:48,919
Speaker 2: four entre each advantage, as we said, the much more

796
00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:52,800
Speaker 2: natural middleweight. He's actually cutting to make middleweight, whereas Gasolm

797
00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:56,480
Speaker 2: probably isn't cutting. The stay at middleweight. The problem for

798
00:36:56,600 --> 00:36:59,520
Speaker 2: Piper is the gas tank. Now we've seen him go

799
00:36:59,640 --> 00:37:03,719
Speaker 2: five rounds, the gas tank doesn't appear to be as

800
00:37:03,760 --> 00:37:05,759
Speaker 2: big of a problem as it used to be now

801
00:37:05,800 --> 00:37:07,680
Speaker 2: that he's been able to stretch out to five rounds

802
00:37:07,719 --> 00:37:10,320
Speaker 2: to dial back to three, I think he can handle

803
00:37:10,360 --> 00:37:10,879
Speaker 2: three rounds.

804
00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:11,240
Speaker 1: Okay.

805
00:37:11,280 --> 00:37:13,480
Speaker 2: If this were a five round fight, I would be

806
00:37:13,520 --> 00:37:16,480
Speaker 2: considering Kelvin Gaslam here at this price. I would definitely

807
00:37:16,560 --> 00:37:20,560
Speaker 2: consider Gaslum either way live after round one because that's

808
00:37:20,760 --> 00:37:23,279
Speaker 2: likely where the best price point comes. If Gaslam is

809
00:37:23,320 --> 00:37:26,600
Speaker 2: going to turn the tables, Tifer's very dangerous early. I

810
00:37:26,680 --> 00:37:29,000
Speaker 2: do think the momentum may flip though in the second

811
00:37:29,080 --> 00:37:31,320
Speaker 2: or third rounds. But as I talked about earlier, you know,

812
00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:34,879
Speaker 2: at elevation, Pifer made us freak out and like start

813
00:37:34,920 --> 00:37:36,960
Speaker 2: the fight with a different tempo than he normally does.

814
00:37:37,040 --> 00:37:39,520
Speaker 2: He may be a little bit more conservative early and

815
00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:41,920
Speaker 2: then try to manage his gas tank a little bit

816
00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:44,400
Speaker 2: better for the second and third rounds. If that happens,

817
00:37:44,680 --> 00:37:47,040
Speaker 2: it just makes me like the over more in this fight.

818
00:37:47,160 --> 00:37:52,279
Speaker 2: But regardless Gaslum's durability, Pifer probably finishing via submission the

819
00:37:52,560 --> 00:37:55,520
Speaker 2: likeliest way. I think this one ends inside the distance.

820
00:37:56,000 --> 00:37:59,839
Speaker 2: Beyond that, maybe gaslom via attritional finish in the third.

821
00:38:00,360 --> 00:38:02,480
Speaker 2: But I do think this fight goes to a decision

822
00:38:02,560 --> 00:38:05,920
Speaker 2: closer to minus one thirties where I projected it getting

823
00:38:05,920 --> 00:38:08,520
Speaker 2: it minus one h two. Fine with that up to

824
00:38:08,560 --> 00:38:11,800
Speaker 2: about minus one twenty Billy, I know you gave out Gaslam.

825
00:38:12,160 --> 00:38:13,800
Speaker 2: I know we talked about a lot of the fights

826
00:38:14,719 --> 00:38:18,000
Speaker 2: on this card. Anything else you want to mention before

827
00:38:18,040 --> 00:38:18,960
Speaker 2: we jump off for the weekend.

828
00:38:20,040 --> 00:38:21,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, just quick final thought on Joe Pifer.

829
00:38:22,080 --> 00:38:25,359
Speaker 3: He went five rounds against Jacker Manson, but he lost

830
00:38:25,480 --> 00:38:28,680
Speaker 3: the final three unanimously, So like to say he has

831
00:38:28,719 --> 00:38:30,760
Speaker 3: five rounds of cardios a little bit of a misnomber,

832
00:38:30,920 --> 00:38:33,719
Speaker 3: Like theoretically he was there, but especially that fifth round,

833
00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:37,160
Speaker 3: he was doing nothing. I think he landed four significant

834
00:38:37,160 --> 00:38:40,560
Speaker 3: strikes in the round of that fight, so like desperately

835
00:38:40,560 --> 00:38:42,279
Speaker 3: shooting take downs and then when they didn't work, just

836
00:38:42,400 --> 00:38:45,000
Speaker 3: kind of lay in there. So yes, in theory he

837
00:38:45,080 --> 00:38:48,319
Speaker 3: can go five rounds, and I almost feel like three

838
00:38:48,480 --> 00:38:52,000
Speaker 3: rounds in Mexico City is the equivalent of five at

839
00:38:52,040 --> 00:38:54,680
Speaker 3: the Apex from a cardio standpoint, especially for bigger guys.

840
00:38:54,719 --> 00:38:57,239
Speaker 3: So I agree with everything you say. I think it

841
00:38:57,320 --> 00:39:00,759
Speaker 3: correlates very nicely with Gastilam winning and I like plus

842
00:39:00,840 --> 00:39:02,640
Speaker 3: two fifty a little bit better than the minus one

843
00:39:02,719 --> 00:39:05,719
Speaker 3: zero two and then guess decision if you want to

844
00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:07,800
Speaker 3: go that or gas Jill and late kind of combines

845
00:39:07,880 --> 00:39:10,000
Speaker 3: both of our thoughts and gets an even better price.

846
00:39:10,480 --> 00:39:12,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, we were on her Manson in that fight. We

847
00:39:12,080 --> 00:39:15,040
Speaker 2: were both on them at about the same price as

848
00:39:15,280 --> 00:39:18,360
Speaker 2: this Gasline fight. Like I said, if this was five rounds,

849
00:39:18,360 --> 00:39:20,480
Speaker 2: I think Gaslam could basically do what her Manson did

850
00:39:20,600 --> 00:39:23,480
Speaker 2: rally over the final three. In a three round fight,

851
00:39:23,560 --> 00:39:26,680
Speaker 2: I think Joe Pifer may have enough, but we will see,

852
00:39:26,920 --> 00:39:29,200
Speaker 2: and Gaslam either way makes it competitive. I think he

853
00:39:29,280 --> 00:39:31,840
Speaker 2: survives all fifteen minutes and that'll do it for a

854
00:39:31,920 --> 00:39:34,080
Speaker 2: USC betting preview. You can find more UFC betting content

855
00:39:34,160 --> 00:39:37,400
Speaker 2: for both Billy and myself both on actionetwork dot Com

856
00:39:37,520 --> 00:39:38,960
Speaker 2: and in the Action NETWORKAP. And if you'd like to

857
00:39:39,000 --> 00:39:41,759
Speaker 2: instantly tell some of the bests we discussed on today's show,

858
00:39:42,080 --> 00:39:43,560
Speaker 2: make sure to look for the quick slip links in

859
00:39:43,600 --> 00:39:46,439
Speaker 2: both the podcast and video descriptions, or visit Action network

860
00:39:46,480 --> 00:39:49,279
Speaker 2: dot Com slash bet now. Don't forget to download the

861
00:39:49,320 --> 00:39:51,359
Speaker 2: free award winning Action NETWORKAP and sign up for Action

862
00:39:51,480 --> 00:39:54,360
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863
00:39:54,440 --> 00:39:56,760
Speaker 2: love to tell your best this weekend, enjoyed the violence,

864
00:39:56,880 --> 00:39:58,160
Speaker 2: Take for listening from sext time.

865
00:40:06,280 --> 00:40:09,680
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

866
00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:12,920
Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

867
00:40:13,239 --> 00:40:15,880
Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

868
00:40:15,960 --> 00:40:16,720
Speaker 2: hundred Gambler