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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Ju us proud read.

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Speaker 2: Enough there were running again, So smoothe so sweet stipid.

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Speaker 3: Sixteen just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for is

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Speaker 3: sixty percent effort four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 1: How shot with that shop with mind?

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Speaker 3: Good buddy, and that's why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 4: Look at his movements, the most.

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Speaker 5: Dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 4: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 5: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 3: The love is left too, the wide eyed, drilled fibus

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Speaker 3: how old Earth?

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Speaker 1: Pick that happens?

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Speaker 5: Helloori one and welcome back to Wonder Goal, the soccer

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Speaker 5: betting podcast from the action that represented to you by

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Speaker 5: bet three six five. My name is Michael Liba, and

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Speaker 5: you fining me for another handicapping adventure through the English

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Speaker 5: Premier League and beyond our Sam Ingram and b J Cunningham.

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Speaker 5: Together the three of us are get a break down

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Speaker 5: all ten Premier League matches coming our way this weekend,

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Speaker 5: do a little stroll through Europe. Sam will give out

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Speaker 5: as best bet in the Championship. Then we will hand

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Speaker 5: out our three leg underdog parlay this week about one

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Speaker 5: hundred and twenty five to one give our favorite bets

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Speaker 5: for the Premier League weekend and then we'll get out

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Speaker 5: of here and rest up for an international break. I

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Speaker 5: think it's always the worst international break on the schedule

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Speaker 5: because you just get it, your juice is flowing, then

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Speaker 5: all of a sudden off for two weeks. It kind

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Speaker 5: of sucks. But anyways, that's for next weekend. For this weekend,

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Speaker 5: we got some I think the best lad of the

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Speaker 5: season so far through the three matches. I think it's

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Speaker 5: a lot of fun. And that includes the match will

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Speaker 5: start with, which is Manchester United and Liverpool on Sunday

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Speaker 5: morning eleven am Eastern Time and the later afternoon over

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Speaker 5: there for sam United is at home and they are

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Speaker 5: plus two to seventy five right now at six five

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Speaker 5: Liverpool odds on minus one eighteen. The draw is plus

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Speaker 5: three hundred. Liverpool has passed the two early tests in

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Speaker 5: the Arnie Slot era with flying colors. They haven't given

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Speaker 5: up more than point They've given a point eight x

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Speaker 5: g in the the two matches combined. The quality of competition,

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Speaker 5: it definitely needs to be noted here BJ. But yeah,

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Speaker 5: this is the kind of spot I like to back

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Speaker 5: this United team. They're so weird. They can lose to anybody,

46
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Speaker 5: but they showed last year like they they might have

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Speaker 5: this Liverpool's team number a little bit with a win

48
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Speaker 5: and two draws odds on on Liverpool on the road

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Speaker 5: just seems like it's flattering them a little bit too

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Speaker 5: much off a win against Ipswich and Brentford at home.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I don't know.

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Speaker 3: I wouldn't go as far as he not have had

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Speaker 3: their number last season. They definitely put in a couple

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Speaker 3: of good performances, but you know the underlying numbers and

55
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Speaker 3: all of their games were actually quite terrible.

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Speaker 5: Right, But that first one they just had nobody right.

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Speaker 1: We were talking about it.

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Speaker 5: They were literally diving into the academy.

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Speaker 3: And I think that's the interesting point here, Michael, is

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Speaker 3: what does United do out of possession against Liverpool because

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Speaker 3: Liverpool's much different now? Park it exactly and that kind

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Speaker 3: of leads me to my bet, I like over sixteen

63
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Speaker 3: and a half shots. But I'll get it to that

64
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Speaker 3: in a second. United's press has looked. It looked better

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Speaker 3: against Brighton, especially for the first sixty or so minutes,

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Speaker 3: I would say, But the thing is there's still some

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Speaker 3: key core issues like they're they're pressing better than they

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Speaker 3: did last season.

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Speaker 1: That's a very low bar to hurtle.

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Speaker 3: There's still the easy outlet ball out wide that teams

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Speaker 3: are just doing over and over and over again and

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Speaker 3: just getting a three v two overload in a break

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Speaker 3: and that happened so many times against Brighton. If you

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Speaker 3: go back and watch the first goal that Brighton scored,

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Speaker 3: they had a three v two overload out wide. Gio

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Speaker 3: Pedro had just a free cross with nobody pressuring him,

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Speaker 3: ball got through to Matoma and then Brighton also had

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Speaker 3: the three v two overload in the box. So United

79
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Speaker 3: defensively still has a lot of issues and if they

80
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Speaker 3: park the bus again, that's going to lead to Liverpool

81
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Speaker 3: getting a lot of chances. Liverpool, although they are not

82
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Speaker 3: playing like they did under Clop, they're playing with much

83
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Speaker 3: more control. I would this is the word I would use.

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Speaker 3: They're building out of the back, a lot more three

85
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Speaker 3: man combinations. But what I love about what Arne Slott

86
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Speaker 3: has done is he hasn't taken away the complete identity

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Speaker 3: of what we've known for Liverpool for so long. If

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Speaker 3: Liverpool hads the opportunity to break in transition, they will

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Speaker 3: do it because for my money, outside of maybe Real Madrid,

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Speaker 3: Liverpool when they were playing under clop was the best

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Speaker 3: transition team in the entire world. So if United, which

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Speaker 3: the last twenty five minutes against Brighton, wants to get

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Speaker 3: into a basketball type match with Liverpool, they're going to

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Speaker 3: lose that time and time again. And they proved that

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Speaker 3: last season because Liverpool in the three meetings, twice in

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Speaker 3: the Premier League and once in the FA Cup, Liverpool

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Speaker 3: created a combined ten point three expectacles and took eighty

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Speaker 3: six shots against Manchester United. So you know, I know

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Speaker 3: Liverpool is acting for more control now. But what is interesting.

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Speaker 3: I think another angle on here is maybe playing Liverpool

101
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Speaker 3: live at a better number is slots teams at fine

102
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Speaker 3: Ord and what we've seen through the first two matches here,

103
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Speaker 3: it takes them about a half to not really figure

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Speaker 3: teams out, but feel them out. They're not being as

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Speaker 3: aggressive as going for it at FI and Ord. They're

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Speaker 3: expected threat in the excuse me, the expected threat created

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Speaker 3: in total for the match, sixty percent of it at

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Speaker 3: fine Ord was in the second half, thirty nine percent

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Speaker 3: was in the first half.

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Speaker 1: So I think you.

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Speaker 3: Potentially could play Liverpool at a better number in the

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Speaker 3: second half as they wear United down if Uniting's going

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Speaker 3: to play in that low defensive block. But either way,

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Speaker 3: Liverpool's taking the most shots so far in the Premier League,

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Speaker 3: So I think in combined eighty six shots and three

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Speaker 3: matches against United, I think over sixteen and a half

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Speaker 3: is a decent bet.

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Speaker 5: Yeah. I like the price on United is me saying

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Speaker 5: I'm taking this number betting on them two part the

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Speaker 5: bus and just do what they've been doing against Liverpool

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Speaker 5: for the past calendar year, which I think could frustrate them.

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Speaker 5: And United is going to be dangerous in transition. That's

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Speaker 5: where they do their best work. Sam, So I'm happy

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Speaker 5: to bet United in these spots like they're such a

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Speaker 5: maddening team I think for supporters and the way that

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Speaker 5: they play actually helps me as a better because you

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Speaker 5: can get them at a price like this and they

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Speaker 5: will be a dangerous underdog against the likes of Liverpool

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Speaker 5: and Arsenal et cetera. Still incredibly dangerous in transition, and

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Speaker 5: I think sometimes like the pessimism around United seeps into

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Speaker 5: the betting market. I feel like that's what's happening here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Look, there are two draws in the Premier League

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Speaker 2: last season, and in between that was a four free

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Speaker 2: United FA Cup winning extra time. In terms of head

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Speaker 2: to heads under Eric Tenhagg, Liverpool United they've only lost

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Speaker 2: once Man United and that was a seven zero spanking.

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Speaker 2: But they have only one so they step their game

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Speaker 2: up against Liverpool. Like you've said, Liverpool started the season well.

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Speaker 2: Tuna win on the weekend fairly comfortable. Two gorgeous goals.

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Speaker 2: In terms of that, Diaz is one on one and

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Speaker 2: then Sealer's little kind of dink over the keeper too.

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Speaker 2: And the United game on the weekend in terms of

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Speaker 2: you speaking about maybe wanting to take United a bigger price,

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Speaker 2: some of the defensive mistakes they're making. It's it's really

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Speaker 2: not good the and Bjy's mentioned the opening goal, so

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Speaker 2: I'll take on the winning goal gladly. I've got a

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Speaker 2: still up in front of me from the replay of

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Speaker 2: the of the second goal and the Joe Pedro go

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Speaker 2: to win it. So let's say you're stood on the

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Speaker 2: penalty spot looking at the goal. I've paused the replay

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Speaker 2: here just before a Dingra acrosses the ball, there are

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Speaker 2: eight players inside the penalty box to the left of

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Speaker 2: the penalty spot eight plus the goalkeeper right, and then

154
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Speaker 2: you've got three Brighton players bunched up at the back

155
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Speaker 2: post just waiting for any kind of chip ball in

156
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Speaker 2: the ninety fifth minute, by the way, when you know

157
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Speaker 2: it's it's like it's backs to the wall, like you're

158
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Speaker 2: defending and anything can kind of happen. You're trying to

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Speaker 2: hold on desperately to that point away from home. You've

160
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Speaker 2: just left three players at the back post. It's something

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Speaker 2: that I don't think we can really blame Eric ten Hagf.

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Speaker 2: Like these kind of these kind of things you learn

163
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Speaker 2: when you're eight, nine, ten years old and then you

164
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Speaker 2: kind of as a pro and then you perfect it

165
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Speaker 2: as a pro in your teenagers. So yeah, just those

166
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Speaker 2: kind of defensive lapses in concentration just make me want

167
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Speaker 2: to stay away from United, to be honest. But we

168
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Speaker 2: know they step up against this Liverpool team, So I

169
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Speaker 2: don't know how keen I am to take United on

170
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Speaker 2: at what were they minus one twenty either, So I

171
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Speaker 2: think really BJ's shout of over seventy and a half

172
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Speaker 2: goes as shot notes shot sorry, and I think that

173
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Speaker 2: would be something the way that would be something I

174
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Speaker 2: think that might be the way to take it, except

175
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Speaker 2: the places I'm not so keen. But yeah, the defensive

176
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Speaker 2: mistakes we're seeing from United really not good.

177
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Speaker 5: Yeah that was fun, a good lucky win for us

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Speaker 5: acking Brighton last weekend. Now we flip it. It's just

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Speaker 5: this exact situation with United. I saw this early last

180
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Speaker 5: year too, so we'll see that definitely is the headliner

181
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Speaker 5: for this match week. But there's a really good one

182
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Speaker 5: to start things off on Saturday morning between ARSL and Brighton,

183
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Speaker 5: a title race six pointer. As we go into match

184
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Speaker 5: week three with Arsenal minus three hundred at home, Brighton

185
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Speaker 5: traveling seven to one, the draws plus four two five BJ,

186
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Speaker 5: I do want to ask you, like, as a as

187
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Speaker 5: an Arsenal supporter, you do your best to stay away

188
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Speaker 5: from betting against the team that you root four, which

189
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Speaker 5: I commend.

190
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Speaker 1: Because they're so good.

191
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Speaker 5: Michael, Yeah, they are good. Betting against Arsenal has not

192
00:10:01,520 --> 00:10:07,040
Speaker 5: been fun. But I do think I don't think i'd

193
00:10:07,040 --> 00:10:08,760
Speaker 5: be lying if I were to say, if this wasn't

194
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Speaker 5: Arsenal playing Brighton here, if you just switched, if you

195
00:10:11,280 --> 00:10:14,480
Speaker 5: kept the profile, let's switch the names with Liverpool or City,

196
00:10:14,960 --> 00:10:17,880
Speaker 5: I think I would be pulling you over to Brighton here,

197
00:10:17,920 --> 00:10:21,600
Speaker 5: because this looks like a situation where I would love

198
00:10:21,600 --> 00:10:24,240
Speaker 5: to bet Brighton at this price with what I've seen

199
00:10:24,360 --> 00:10:27,400
Speaker 5: against anybody, like I don't. I just am really impressed

200
00:10:27,440 --> 00:10:30,320
Speaker 5: with how they came out of the gates once again.

201
00:10:30,360 --> 00:10:33,960
Speaker 5: You can talk about quality competition, right This evidence has

202
00:10:34,000 --> 00:10:35,760
Speaker 5: been a mess to start, but they did go on

203
00:10:35,800 --> 00:10:40,560
Speaker 5: the road and just wallop them. Then they welcome United

204
00:10:40,600 --> 00:10:44,040
Speaker 5: to the South Coast, take advantage of a Sam broke

205
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Speaker 5: down a defensive laps in a spot where you just

206
00:10:47,080 --> 00:10:50,760
Speaker 5: cannot have a defensive laps. But like they're just going

207
00:10:50,800 --> 00:10:52,400
Speaker 5: to be dangerous at this kind of price like this,

208
00:10:53,000 --> 00:10:54,840
Speaker 5: this is a really good price on a team that

209
00:10:54,960 --> 00:10:58,959
Speaker 5: has a really high ceiling and there's so much chaos

210
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Speaker 5: that they can bring to a match because of their

211
00:11:00,400 --> 00:11:02,559
Speaker 5: speed on the wings and just the way they play.

212
00:11:02,600 --> 00:11:05,440
Speaker 5: And we still don't understand all that much about what

213
00:11:05,559 --> 00:11:07,360
Speaker 5: Fabian Hurtzler is going to be able to do over

214
00:11:07,360 --> 00:11:09,640
Speaker 5: the course of a long season, but the early returns

215
00:11:09,679 --> 00:11:14,200
Speaker 5: are quite impressive. That's not what that kind of stuff

216
00:11:14,200 --> 00:11:16,400
Speaker 5: I feel like keeps mckel arteta up at night. He

217
00:11:16,440 --> 00:11:20,360
Speaker 5: wants to control everything, really hard to do against Brighton,

218
00:11:20,400 --> 00:11:24,000
Speaker 5: even at home. So I think Brighton's live here to

219
00:11:24,120 --> 00:11:27,000
Speaker 5: cause perhaps the first early shock of the season.

220
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Speaker 3: Yeah, Arsenal has got some figuring out to do offensively

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Speaker 3: from open play. So what Unai Emery did and why

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Speaker 3: they kind of stifled Arsenal for a long time because

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Speaker 3: he was essentially playing like six guys across the back

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Speaker 3: line with his compact you know, obviously compact shape and

225
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Speaker 3: high line, which just took away really any type of

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Speaker 3: overload that Arsenal could do offensively. Basically forced Arsenal to say,

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Speaker 3: if you're gonna beat us, you're gonna have to play

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Speaker 3: the ball at the top. And Arsenal just wasn't willing

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Speaker 3: to do that and really couldn't do it effectively for

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Speaker 3: most of the match. I have a couple speaking of

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Speaker 3: still shots, Sam, I have a still shot from the

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Speaker 3: Brighton Manchester United match. For the few times that Brighton

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Speaker 3: or that Manchester Unity was building out of the back.

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Speaker 3: Against Brighton, Herzler was playing a pretty similar system. It

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Speaker 3: was more like a five four to one, but it

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Speaker 3: was very high line, very compact to reduce that space

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Speaker 3: in between the lines. So if Arsenal really couldn't figure

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Speaker 3: out how to do that against aston Villa. Saying that

239
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Speaker 3: they're going to be able to do that against Brighton,

240
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Speaker 3: I think is a bit naive. Now, they very well

241
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Speaker 3: may create chances because you know this is the third

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Speaker 3: match now that Brighton is playing this type of system,

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Speaker 3: so Arsenal could get through and create a couple of chances.

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Speaker 3: But the flip side of it is is that you

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Speaker 3: know Brighton the key in the Hirsler system is that

246
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Speaker 3: single pivot player because he uses a lot of different

247
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Speaker 3: build up formations. Usually it's splitting the center backs and

248
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Speaker 3: having that single pivot. Wifer was injured for the match

249
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Speaker 3: against United and looks like Billy Gilmour might be off

250
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Speaker 3: to Napoli, So I'm not sure if Brighton's going to

251
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Speaker 3: have a guy in that single pivot that's going to

252
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Speaker 3: be able to be successful and allow Brighton to build

253
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Speaker 3: up against Arsenal the way that they press high and again,

254
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Speaker 3: if you're going to try to play the ball long

255
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Speaker 3: against Arsenal, well, they allowed the lowest long ball completion

256
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Speaker 3: percentage of anybody in the Premier League last season. They're

257
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Speaker 3: so good at winning second balls, so they make it

258
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Speaker 3: so difficult on teams to actually create chances. I know

259
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Speaker 3: everybody wants to overreact that aston Villa created over one

260
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Speaker 3: expected goal against Arsenal. Well the two chance big chances

261
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Speaker 3: they had that accumulated. All of that Ollie Watkins miss

262
00:13:37,520 --> 00:13:39,079
Speaker 3: in first half would have been called back for a

263
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Speaker 3: penalty for a foul without a doubt if that ball

264
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Speaker 3: would have been in the back of the net, and

265
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Speaker 3: the second one was a deflection from Manana that went

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Speaker 3: off the post and gave Watkins an easy chance in

267
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Speaker 3: on net. So I wouldn't go and say like there's

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Speaker 3: some type of defensive issue with Arsenal. There's not, because

269
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Speaker 3: they're still defending wonderfully in transition. They're not letting you

270
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Speaker 3: do anything on set pieces, and if then their high

271
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Speaker 3: press is really forcing teams into a lot of long

272
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Speaker 3: balls up the pitch. So I like under three here

273
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Speaker 3: at even money, I think that the total is way

274
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Speaker 3: too high. Here. I have two points around two point

275
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Speaker 3: five goals projected. I think both teams are really going

276
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Speaker 3: to have problems once they get to the final third.

277
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Speaker 3: Brighton's gonna have problems building up and they're gonna have

278
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Speaker 3: to send a lot of long balls, and Arsenal's got

279
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Speaker 3: to figure out if teams are gonna play five or

280
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Speaker 3: six of the back line then play a high line,

281
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Speaker 3: they got to figure out a way to play through them,

282
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Speaker 3: and so far they have not shown that.

283
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Speaker 1: So under three at even money.

284
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Speaker 5: For me, sitting on that nil nil is a lot

285
00:14:33,520 --> 00:14:36,520
Speaker 5: of fun because I basically it was like, goh, it's

286
00:14:36,560 --> 00:14:40,600
Speaker 5: done when watching the two Watkins chances. But I got

287
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Speaker 5: to the sixty six minute it was fun, a good

288
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Speaker 5: fun sweat. I'll try to find one on this on

289
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Speaker 5: this betting board, Sam, any interest here in arsenal le Brighton.

290
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Speaker 5: I I just I think that this thing has some

291
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Speaker 5: drama to it. So that's what that's leaning me towards the.

292
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Speaker 2: I think you might be right. I'm not sure this

293
00:15:04,360 --> 00:15:06,080
Speaker 2: is more of a lean than anything. I've got both

294
00:15:06,120 --> 00:15:08,880
Speaker 2: teams to score at minus one twenty in front of me,

295
00:15:08,920 --> 00:15:10,960
Speaker 2: and there's not many Premier League games where you can

296
00:15:10,960 --> 00:15:12,960
Speaker 2: pick up a both teams to score at minus one

297
00:15:13,000 --> 00:15:15,600
Speaker 2: twenty of these days. Looking at the weekend slate, you've

298
00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:19,760
Speaker 2: got Newcastle Spurs minus two seven eight minus two two

299
00:15:19,800 --> 00:15:22,640
Speaker 2: seven in the United vers Liverpool. So yeah, this this

300
00:15:22,720 --> 00:15:25,880
Speaker 2: doesn't come around too often, and I know there'll be

301
00:15:25,960 --> 00:15:29,200
Speaker 2: plenty out there, like Bjy was saying, they'll probably be

302
00:15:29,760 --> 00:15:32,680
Speaker 2: disinterested in in a minus figure for both teams to

303
00:15:32,680 --> 00:15:35,440
Speaker 2: score at the Emirates, but fifty three percent of their

304
00:15:35,440 --> 00:15:39,440
Speaker 2: home games landed both teams to score. Last season, thirty

305
00:15:39,480 --> 00:15:41,960
Speaker 2: seven percent of Arsenal matches saw them keep a clean sheet.

306
00:15:42,080 --> 00:15:45,040
Speaker 2: Obviously impressive, but it also leaves a little room for

307
00:15:45,560 --> 00:15:49,520
Speaker 2: their traveling opponents to make their presence felt. Brighton have

308
00:15:49,640 --> 00:15:51,720
Speaker 2: lost to an aggregate score of eight to nil in

309
00:15:51,760 --> 00:15:55,200
Speaker 2: the last three meetings with Arsenal. It's not ideal, but

310
00:15:55,240 --> 00:15:57,680
Speaker 2: they've also scored in each of their first three games

311
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Speaker 2: of the hertzelt Era, including four nil in the EFL

312
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Speaker 2: Cup last night. So Arsenal, Yeah, they've waltzed through match

313
00:16:04,400 --> 00:16:06,840
Speaker 2: day one and match day two without conceding to in

314
00:16:06,880 --> 00:16:10,960
Speaker 2: both games, including last weekend's trip to aston Villa. And

315
00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:14,560
Speaker 2: I know it is literally his job, but David Reya

316
00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:17,920
Speaker 2: has had to bail Arsenal out more than once. They

317
00:16:17,960 --> 00:16:22,120
Speaker 2: are fortunate that he's been able to make multiple world

318
00:16:22,120 --> 00:16:25,560
Speaker 2: class stops. But that luck, that fortune, that elite level

319
00:16:25,600 --> 00:16:28,000
Speaker 2: go keeping whatever you want to coin it, it's going

320
00:16:28,080 --> 00:16:30,680
Speaker 2: to fall short at some point and I'm hoping that

321
00:16:30,840 --> 00:16:34,320
Speaker 2: rears its head. On the weekend you mentioned Olie Watkins

322
00:16:34,760 --> 00:16:37,240
Speaker 2: had a couple of chances to score. I think he

323
00:16:37,320 --> 00:16:41,040
Speaker 2: should have mentioned it in our match day two pod

324
00:16:41,160 --> 00:16:46,480
Speaker 2: that that unbelievable outstretched arm against against Wolves too. Yeah,

325
00:16:46,680 --> 00:16:49,520
Speaker 2: there's been a few chances and I think this brightant

326
00:16:49,520 --> 00:16:52,400
Speaker 2: team from what we've seen that they should really and

327
00:16:52,680 --> 00:16:56,080
Speaker 2: create a few go score scoring opportunities. And you would

328
00:16:56,120 --> 00:16:58,960
Speaker 2: always expect Arsenal to score at home. So it's more

329
00:16:59,040 --> 00:17:01,720
Speaker 2: of a price thing than anything MORENUS one twenty on

330
00:17:01,720 --> 00:17:03,400
Speaker 2: both teams to score in the Premier League.

331
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Speaker 4: Don't cream on the song a lot as a lead,

332
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Speaker 4: all right.

333
00:17:06,680 --> 00:17:09,120
Speaker 5: Unfortunately that means it's time to talk about everten. They

334
00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:11,560
Speaker 5: are plus one seventy at home. It gets sworn with

335
00:17:11,640 --> 00:17:15,520
Speaker 5: so they rising, Oh god, I know, uh board with

336
00:17:15,680 --> 00:17:17,720
Speaker 5: sitting plus one fifty five. The draw here is plus

337
00:17:18,320 --> 00:17:21,919
Speaker 5: two thirty. I don't know, like we we always have

338
00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:24,400
Speaker 5: been for the better part of a calendar year now,

339
00:17:24,400 --> 00:17:27,480
Speaker 5: we've been talking about they're just being value on evert

340
00:17:27,480 --> 00:17:30,280
Speaker 5: in according to the numbers, and it's going to be

341
00:17:30,280 --> 00:17:33,320
Speaker 5: painful and it has been painful, and we've been steering

342
00:17:33,359 --> 00:17:35,440
Speaker 5: you in the wrong direction with most of those bets.

343
00:17:35,640 --> 00:17:40,720
Speaker 5: But I mean, yes, they've lost, but yeah, I guess

344
00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:41,680
Speaker 5: I've been starting.

345
00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:42,320
Speaker 1: Most of them.

346
00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:46,159
Speaker 3: Yeah, we big covered, but well Hobe ever should have

347
00:17:46,160 --> 00:17:47,320
Speaker 3: scored those three chances.

348
00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:53,600
Speaker 5: It would take you. You'd have to be a pretty

349
00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:55,359
Speaker 5: brave soul to bet Evert in here, Sam, That's all

350
00:17:55,400 --> 00:17:58,160
Speaker 5: I would say. I think that they're probably the right

351
00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:00,080
Speaker 5: side in terms of value, but you still have to

352
00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:00,640
Speaker 5: be pretty brief.

353
00:18:00,680 --> 00:18:02,040
Speaker 4: So no, exactly.

354
00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:05,040
Speaker 2: The only kind of points I've got down in front

355
00:18:05,040 --> 00:18:06,800
Speaker 2: of me, because I'm not taking a bet in this game,

356
00:18:07,000 --> 00:18:10,280
Speaker 2: is that well, I've made no secret of being fully

357
00:18:10,320 --> 00:18:12,880
Speaker 2: behind Bournemouth, but with the prices, I think it's gone

358
00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:17,080
Speaker 2: too far and now Everton a value And so if

359
00:18:17,080 --> 00:18:19,879
Speaker 2: you have eyes and you've seen their start to the season, Everton,

360
00:18:19,920 --> 00:18:22,000
Speaker 2: then you'll understand why I'm not too keen on getting

361
00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:26,240
Speaker 2: behind them either and coming like opening up my bet

362
00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:29,520
Speaker 2: three sixty five, I was hoping maybe we'd get Bournemouth

363
00:18:29,520 --> 00:18:32,520
Speaker 2: at a plus zero point twenty five, maybe on the road,

364
00:18:32,720 --> 00:18:35,600
Speaker 2: which you probably would have earlier on last season. But

365
00:18:36,119 --> 00:18:38,400
Speaker 2: and yeah it's not to be now. So in terms

366
00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:41,600
Speaker 2: of value, the bet is Everton. But yeah, you're brave

367
00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:42,800
Speaker 2: if you take that on this week.

368
00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:44,520
Speaker 1: I'll put it this way.

369
00:18:44,760 --> 00:18:47,440
Speaker 3: I think that, yes, I do think the value side

370
00:18:47,480 --> 00:18:50,119
Speaker 3: is Everton if we wanted to just like do this

371
00:18:50,160 --> 00:18:53,359
Speaker 3: from a mathematical standpoint where I kind of think the line.

372
00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:54,760
Speaker 1: Is maybe now a little bit in range.

373
00:18:54,800 --> 00:18:56,600
Speaker 3: Now if you get Everton up into the plus one

374
00:18:56,720 --> 00:18:58,760
Speaker 3: eighty plus one ninety range, then we can have a

375
00:18:58,760 --> 00:19:04,479
Speaker 3: different discussion. But you know, Bournemouth, oh since November eleventh,

376
00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:07,080
Speaker 3: when they really kicked it on, was about a plus

377
00:19:07,320 --> 00:19:10,480
Speaker 3: point two actually differential per ninety And if we take

378
00:19:10,480 --> 00:19:13,520
Speaker 3: Everton and about even money, you know, we give Everton

379
00:19:13,560 --> 00:19:16,480
Speaker 3: homefield advantage, which is worth about point thirty four expected

380
00:19:16,520 --> 00:19:18,879
Speaker 3: goals in the Premier League. You could make the case

381
00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:22,399
Speaker 3: that Everton maybe should be a slight favorite here at home.

382
00:19:23,280 --> 00:19:25,840
Speaker 3: I think for me, kind of going along with along

383
00:19:26,080 --> 00:19:29,439
Speaker 3: what Sam said, Everton needs to show me that they

384
00:19:29,440 --> 00:19:31,960
Speaker 3: can be dangerous in transition before I decided to bet

385
00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:34,960
Speaker 3: them again. They were dangerous on set pieces against Tottenham

386
00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:37,680
Speaker 3: without a doubt, but they got to show me something

387
00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:40,240
Speaker 3: in transition where they can actually create a lot of chances.

388
00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:43,560
Speaker 3: So this is a good match to do it. Because

389
00:19:43,560 --> 00:19:46,200
Speaker 3: Bournemouth was the boy. They were really open against Newcastle

390
00:19:46,240 --> 00:19:49,080
Speaker 3: and they allowed a lot of transition breaks against the Magpies.

391
00:19:49,160 --> 00:19:52,040
Speaker 1: So Everden's got to show me.

392
00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:54,920
Speaker 3: Something before before we can back them again. But I'll

393
00:19:54,920 --> 00:19:56,520
Speaker 3: be back on them eventually, but this is not the

394
00:19:56,520 --> 00:19:57,240
Speaker 3: spot to do it.

395
00:19:57,760 --> 00:19:59,959
Speaker 5: Yeah nice. I mean look at it this way.

396
00:20:00,680 --> 00:20:02,359
Speaker 1: If they don't bet by the way, they'll win this.

397
00:20:02,400 --> 00:20:05,080
Speaker 5: They will, Yeah, of course they'll win it. But if

398
00:20:05,080 --> 00:20:07,960
Speaker 5: you don't bet Everton in this week, that means you're

399
00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:10,399
Speaker 5: gonna have three weeks off from betting on Everted because

400
00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:12,920
Speaker 5: we don't have a match for a while. So when

401
00:20:12,920 --> 00:20:14,680
Speaker 5: you think about it, the potential of it ever did

402
00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:17,439
Speaker 5: win or just getting those three weeks without having to

403
00:20:18,440 --> 00:20:20,400
Speaker 5: get in bed with this team, which which is more

404
00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:22,800
Speaker 5: important to you. I think it's a pretty easy decision.

405
00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:25,080
Speaker 1: They're going to face that out of the break too.

406
00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:26,880
Speaker 1: That's going to be an Everthing bed.

407
00:20:27,200 --> 00:20:30,760
Speaker 5: Oh yeah, oh yeah, I got nothing for this next one.

408
00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:33,080
Speaker 5: Uh Lean toy is a favorite a little bit brent

409
00:20:33,119 --> 00:20:36,359
Speaker 5: that's Brentford there Minus won thirty four in rising against Southampton,

410
00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:38,879
Speaker 5: who've struggled out of the gates on one of a

411
00:20:39,000 --> 00:20:41,199
Speaker 5: handful of teams without a point on the board they

412
00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:45,560
Speaker 5: are plus three fifty. Traveling uh to the Brentford Community Stadium.

413
00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:48,000
Speaker 5: The draw here is plus two ninety. But you two

414
00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:50,520
Speaker 5: are both on the side of the beast. We'll start

415
00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:51,119
Speaker 5: with you. Sam.

416
00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:54,119
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Brentford will win the game. Outrights a

417
00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:56,600
Speaker 2: pretty good price around minus one thirty, but I've gone

418
00:20:56,600 --> 00:20:59,160
Speaker 2: for something a little different. Brent will win and most

419
00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:01,880
Speaker 2: shots on backs didn't get that a plus one eighty.

420
00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:06,120
Speaker 2: So Russell Martin, Southampton barson Is post match press conference

421
00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:09,159
Speaker 2: after the Nottin Forest fixed out the weekend said we

422
00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:11,879
Speaker 2: don't possess the individual quality at the top end of

423
00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:14,639
Speaker 2: the pitch as they do in terms of Forest and

424
00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:17,639
Speaker 2: that was the big difference here today. So that's damning.

425
00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:21,880
Speaker 2: And Southampton had five attempts at home, by the way,

426
00:21:22,080 --> 00:21:25,040
Speaker 2: four came outside the box, three of them were blocked

427
00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:28,840
Speaker 2: and one and didn't trouble the goal, and then only

428
00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:32,119
Speaker 2: one was on target which the forest keeper made it

429
00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:35,040
Speaker 2: save from. So they didn't have one big chance in

430
00:21:35,080 --> 00:21:38,760
Speaker 2: the game at home. On match they two, Southampton posted

431
00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:41,440
Speaker 2: the lowest XG of any team zero point one four

432
00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:45,399
Speaker 2: against Forest. And what Russell Martin is saying about lacking

433
00:21:45,480 --> 00:21:49,320
Speaker 2: quality up top. He's absolutely correct. So in Adam Armstrong

434
00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:52,159
Speaker 2: and Ben Brereton Diats their strike partnership, they've got two

435
00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:56,720
Speaker 2: Championship strikers up front hoping they're going to perform at

436
00:21:56,760 --> 00:22:00,320
Speaker 2: Premier League level. And now they traveled to Brentford and

437
00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:04,479
Speaker 2: plan on outgunning Brian and Buemo, Joann Vissa, Kevin Shada,

438
00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:08,080
Speaker 2: et cetera. Potentially ivan Toni but probably not. And you

439
00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:10,600
Speaker 2: can get Brentford at minus one point thirty to get

440
00:22:10,640 --> 00:22:15,240
Speaker 2: the job done. So it's the same story as as

441
00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:18,800
Speaker 2: Leicester for me at the minute. I think if Southampton opponents,

442
00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:21,160
Speaker 2: if they can score two goals in a Premier League game,

443
00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:24,960
Speaker 2: I just struggled to see how Southampton can clunjure up

444
00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:27,919
Speaker 2: enough to get anything from the game. And Brentford at

445
00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:30,960
Speaker 2: home they've got two goals in them. I'm pretty sure

446
00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:33,639
Speaker 2: about that, especially against a newly promoted team like Southampton,

447
00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:36,399
Speaker 2: who will try to knock the ball around and probably

448
00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:40,080
Speaker 2: give you transitional opportunities. So I think Southampton we saw

449
00:22:40,160 --> 00:22:43,280
Speaker 2: that against Forrest. I think they looked vulnerable against Forrest

450
00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:45,640
Speaker 2: for most of the game. Actually, they were so easy

451
00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:47,920
Speaker 2: to play through and they had the ball for a

452
00:22:47,960 --> 00:22:49,760
Speaker 2: lot of the game, but they're so easy to play through,

453
00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:54,280
Speaker 2: and Forrest repeatedly turn the fence and transitional opportunities into

454
00:22:54,359 --> 00:22:57,520
Speaker 2: attack straight away in one or two passes. It was

455
00:22:57,600 --> 00:22:59,239
Speaker 2: one new to Forrest, but it should have been more.

456
00:22:59,320 --> 00:23:03,800
Speaker 2: The underlying zero point one x zero point one four

457
00:23:04,040 --> 00:23:06,840
Speaker 2: x G to Southampton and two point four to five

458
00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:11,000
Speaker 2: x G to Forrest. And Forrest also outshot Southampton by

459
00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:14,840
Speaker 2: twenty three to five in Southampton's own backyard. So I've

460
00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:17,119
Speaker 2: see no reason why it won't be similar at the

461
00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:20,080
Speaker 2: g Tech Stadium. Brentford to win most shots plus one

462
00:23:20,119 --> 00:23:22,360
Speaker 2: a bet three six five. If you came to play

463
00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:24,560
Speaker 2: it a little bit safer, you could get Brentford or

464
00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:27,240
Speaker 2: draw and most shots at minus one sixteen.

465
00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:28,400
Speaker 4: I'll let them both.

466
00:23:29,080 --> 00:23:31,680
Speaker 3: Here's a stat that I think tells you all you

467
00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:37,680
Speaker 3: need to know about Southampton. In the second half against

468
00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:42,879
Speaker 3: Nottingham Forest, they controlled seventy percent of the possession and

469
00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:44,239
Speaker 3: got outshot eleven to one.

470
00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:46,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, like you can.

471
00:23:47,119 --> 00:23:49,360
Speaker 3: The thing is, like I went back and rewatched that match.

472
00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:52,360
Speaker 3: They actually looked like pretty good through the first couple

473
00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:54,200
Speaker 3: phases of build up, like they were knocking the ball

474
00:23:54,240 --> 00:23:56,639
Speaker 3: around well Nottingham Forest was sitting in a mid block,

475
00:23:56,960 --> 00:23:59,240
Speaker 3: they weren't providing much resistance and then once again in

476
00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:02,960
Speaker 3: the final third there's just nothing. And I mean it's

477
00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:05,240
Speaker 3: a very similar team. Like Sam said, you're gonna play

478
00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:07,520
Speaker 3: in Brentford. They're just as good in the low defensive

479
00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:10,240
Speaker 3: block or even in a mid block as Nottingham Forest is.

480
00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:12,600
Speaker 3: So how is Southampton gonna play through them and really

481
00:24:12,640 --> 00:24:16,760
Speaker 3: do that? Sam also mentioned that Southampton's very vulnerable in transition.

482
00:24:17,040 --> 00:24:21,679
Speaker 3: So far this season five counter attacking shots through two matches,

483
00:24:21,720 --> 00:24:23,720
Speaker 3: that's the most anybody's allowed so far in the Premier League,

484
00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:26,160
Speaker 3: and last season in the Championship they allowed the most

485
00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:29,840
Speaker 3: counter attacking shots per ninety minutes of anybody, just shows

486
00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:35,440
Speaker 3: how vulnerable they are. Additionally, Southampton allowed well over one

487
00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:38,119
Speaker 3: expected goal on set pieces to not Eam Forest, and

488
00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:41,640
Speaker 3: of course Brentford is always good on set pieces. Last

489
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:43,840
Speaker 3: season created the second most expected goals off of them,

490
00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:48,639
Speaker 3: behind only Everton. So I mean, I think Brentford is

491
00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:50,120
Speaker 3: severely undervalued here.

492
00:24:50,320 --> 00:24:51,520
Speaker 1: I like them a minus one thirty.

493
00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:52,280
Speaker 3: I agree with Sam.

494
00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:57,440
Speaker 5: Okay, next up is Ipswich and Fulham. Ipswich is starting

495
00:24:57,440 --> 00:24:59,119
Speaker 5: to rise a little bit. I think this price is

496
00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:02,320
Speaker 5: getting to point where it's playable. They're plus two hundred

497
00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:04,639
Speaker 5: at home against a Fulham team that is plus one

498
00:25:04,800 --> 00:25:07,800
Speaker 5: thirty the drafts plus two forty Fulham I have a

499
00:25:07,880 --> 00:25:11,840
Speaker 5: quitting themselves pretty well to start the season. Decent showing

500
00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:15,680
Speaker 5: against Man United. They get to win against Leicester in

501
00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:18,720
Speaker 5: a game that they edged in the second half. I

502
00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:22,560
Speaker 5: do think this is a little trickier than these arts suggest.

503
00:25:23,359 --> 00:25:25,520
Speaker 5: So I got no interest in Fulham. Sam will put

504
00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:28,680
Speaker 5: it that way. I'm starting to lean towards the tracker

505
00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:29,160
Speaker 5: boys here.

506
00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:30,720
Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't blame you.

507
00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:33,560
Speaker 2: I've gone for over two and a half goes, but

508
00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:37,000
Speaker 2: it was between that and Fulham to win. But like

509
00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:39,080
Speaker 2: I've said a few times, I'm a bit of a coward.

510
00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:41,840
Speaker 2: So I'm just going for the smaller price. So Ipswich

511
00:25:41,880 --> 00:25:45,080
Speaker 2: They've played Liverpool and City to open up the season.

512
00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:48,439
Speaker 2: It's the first time that Kien Mcinna has lost two

513
00:25:48,520 --> 00:25:51,280
Speaker 2: games on the bounce as Ipswich boss. But you know

514
00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:55,240
Speaker 2: it's it's a real cruel opening two games. They've scored

515
00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:58,280
Speaker 2: once at the Etty had through Sammy Smotitch new signing,

516
00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:01,280
Speaker 2: and in those two matches David Mass zero point five

517
00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:04,360
Speaker 2: to six xg combined, smallest total in the whole division.

518
00:26:04,760 --> 00:26:08,439
Speaker 2: Nineteen teams have put more, but obviously the rest haven't

519
00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:11,160
Speaker 2: just played Liverpool City on the bounce. So I think

520
00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:14,720
Speaker 2: these prices, I'm sorry, I think these underlying figures might

521
00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:20,119
Speaker 2: be skewing the prices a little. And I've got no

522
00:26:20,520 --> 00:26:24,560
Speaker 2: data to back this up. The IPSWICH and these players

523
00:26:25,200 --> 00:26:29,720
Speaker 2: at Premier League level are obviously unknowns. But what I

524
00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:33,879
Speaker 2: like here is I think Fulham will arrive fancy or

525
00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:37,159
Speaker 2: three points, and I think Ipswich will look at this

526
00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:40,040
Speaker 2: as one of the Premier League games they can really

527
00:26:40,320 --> 00:26:44,040
Speaker 2: take to their opposition, and I think there's potentially three

528
00:26:44,119 --> 00:26:47,719
Speaker 2: points it. I think Ipswich might have to soak up pressure,

529
00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:50,320
Speaker 2: play on the counter and in transition, but they can

530
00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:53,000
Speaker 2: do that. I've seen them do it often often in

531
00:26:53,119 --> 00:26:56,000
Speaker 2: the Championship. They've got players to do that, and Mauri

532
00:26:56,080 --> 00:26:58,280
Speaker 2: Hutchinson will run all day and get you up the pitch.

533
00:26:58,320 --> 00:27:00,760
Speaker 2: Sammy Smollocks is cut from a similar cloth. He'll do

534
00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:02,800
Speaker 2: the same through the middle and he'll run the channels

535
00:27:02,840 --> 00:27:05,680
Speaker 2: if you want him to. Like I said, no Premier

536
00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:09,160
Speaker 2: League data to hand, but in the Championship. I mentioned

537
00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:11,520
Speaker 2: it on Matually one. Ipswich shored fifty nine goals in

538
00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:14,280
Speaker 2: twenty three home games, more than less the leads Southampton.

539
00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:18,000
Speaker 2: Ipswich average three point ninety six goals per ninety at home,

540
00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:21,560
Speaker 2: nearly four goals a game, so they are box office

541
00:27:21,560 --> 00:27:25,440
Speaker 2: at Portland Road. This over two point five goal shout

542
00:27:25,560 --> 00:27:27,800
Speaker 2: might fall to its knees. But from what I know

543
00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:31,800
Speaker 2: about Ipswich, what I know about Kieran McKenna and these players,

544
00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:34,680
Speaker 2: they'll devise a game plan to win every home game

545
00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:37,159
Speaker 2: and through that they'll score goals, and through that there

546
00:27:37,160 --> 00:27:39,919
Speaker 2: will also be succeptful at the back. So this might

547
00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:42,440
Speaker 2: be one of the shootouts. It might fall to his knees.

548
00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:44,600
Speaker 2: But over two point five goals in the Premier League

549
00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:47,440
Speaker 2: at minus one twenty is a pretty good price.

550
00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:52,600
Speaker 5: Okay, Forest and Wolves up next. I'm going towards the

551
00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:56,120
Speaker 5: draw here BJ Forrest's plus one oh five at home.

552
00:27:56,600 --> 00:27:59,359
Speaker 5: Really impressive start to this season, I think from Forest,

553
00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:03,280
Speaker 5: and I also think they're just getting overlooked by everybody

554
00:28:03,359 --> 00:28:07,320
Speaker 5: considering what Nuno has done with them since he took over.

555
00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:11,080
Speaker 5: Like it's just a much more solid mid table team.

556
00:28:11,119 --> 00:28:13,560
Speaker 5: Than I think the market gives credit for. They are

557
00:28:14,840 --> 00:28:17,680
Speaker 5: plus one oh five against Wolves, plus two forty the

558
00:28:17,760 --> 00:28:23,800
Speaker 5: draws plus two fifty here you are leaning towards Forest here.

559
00:28:23,840 --> 00:28:26,600
Speaker 5: I think this one could be a little trickier and

560
00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:30,960
Speaker 5: they'll given how these two teams can play. The draws

561
00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:34,240
Speaker 5: definitely something that I'm interested here. But what do you

562
00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:35,879
Speaker 5: have for us on the tricky trees?

563
00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:38,920
Speaker 3: I actually like Nottingham Forest here a plus one oh

564
00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:42,480
Speaker 3: five at home. We already mentioned how impressive they were

565
00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:46,880
Speaker 3: against Southampton in their second match, But what is most

566
00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:50,600
Speaker 3: impressive about them, I think is their versatility out of possession.

567
00:28:50,720 --> 00:28:53,080
Speaker 3: Like they're obviously a very good transition team. They're obviously

568
00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:55,040
Speaker 3: a very good team that can sit in the mid block.

569
00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:58,160
Speaker 3: But if they feel that they can press an opponent

570
00:28:58,280 --> 00:29:00,560
Speaker 3: high and cause a lot of issues, they will do it.

571
00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:03,320
Speaker 3: Last season, in the two to two draw with Wolves

572
00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:06,280
Speaker 3: at the City Ground, they won the match on x

573
00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:08,719
Speaker 3: G one point nine to one, but the most important

574
00:29:08,760 --> 00:29:10,840
Speaker 3: stat from that match was Nottingham Force had twenty one

575
00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:13,120
Speaker 3: high recoveries. Wolves just kept trying to play out of

576
00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:15,920
Speaker 3: the back and Nottingham Force deployed a Manda man press

577
00:29:16,000 --> 00:29:18,720
Speaker 3: and continually was turning them over and over and over again.

578
00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:21,640
Speaker 3: If you watched Wolves versus Chelsea, well, Wolf still has

579
00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:24,520
Speaker 3: a lot of difficulties playing against Amanda man press. So

580
00:29:24,560 --> 00:29:27,320
Speaker 3: I think noting enforced can cause them a lot of problems,

581
00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:30,440
Speaker 3: especially with their out of possession stuff. And the other

582
00:29:30,520 --> 00:29:33,560
Speaker 3: problem with Wolves is that you know, when they get

583
00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:36,440
Speaker 3: into a negative game state like you saw against Chelsea,

584
00:29:36,600 --> 00:29:38,160
Speaker 3: and they have to be the ones that come out

585
00:29:38,200 --> 00:29:40,680
Speaker 3: and press a team, They're not very good at doing it.

586
00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:43,160
Speaker 3: They're very good at sitting in that mid type of block.

587
00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:46,240
Speaker 3: But I think Gary O'Neil desperately wants to make Wolves

588
00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:48,200
Speaker 3: a team that can control matches a little bit more,

589
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:52,680
Speaker 3: especially matches like this, so that leaves them in kind

590
00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:55,920
Speaker 3: of a very vulnerable type position. And then there's the

591
00:29:56,040 --> 00:29:58,280
Speaker 3: other aspect of if you just look at the underlying

592
00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:01,040
Speaker 3: data of these two teams since nun has taken over,

593
00:30:01,840 --> 00:30:05,840
Speaker 3: not even Forest is drastically a better team than Wolves's

594
00:30:06,960 --> 00:30:09,040
Speaker 3: in the twenty one matches that he's been in charge,

595
00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:10,719
Speaker 3: or excuse me, the twenty three matches that he's been

596
00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:15,400
Speaker 3: in charge minus excuse me, minus four actual goal differential

597
00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:20,080
Speaker 3: plus six point seven expected goal differential whereas Wolves has

598
00:30:20,120 --> 00:30:22,640
Speaker 3: a minus sixteen point eight expect gold differential over that

599
00:30:22,760 --> 00:30:26,760
Speaker 3: exact same timeframe. So Nottingham Forrest is drastically a better team,

600
00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:29,160
Speaker 3: and I think they're a little bit undervalued here, especially

601
00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:31,400
Speaker 3: at home where they play so much better than they

602
00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:33,800
Speaker 3: do on the roads. So I like the price on

603
00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:34,840
Speaker 3: them at plus one on five.

604
00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:37,440
Speaker 5: It's been in a funky start for Wolves too. I

605
00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:40,440
Speaker 5: don't if Switch is probably the only other team that

606
00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:43,640
Speaker 5: feel like we've learned less about through two matches, considering

607
00:30:43,840 --> 00:30:46,239
Speaker 5: the opponents that we've seen Wolves play, Arsenal and then

608
00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:50,400
Speaker 5: just an insane match against Chelsea. So another team that

609
00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:52,760
Speaker 5: I'm just trying to figure out at this point, and

610
00:30:53,160 --> 00:30:54,600
Speaker 5: I don't feel like I have a good feel, but

611
00:30:55,640 --> 00:30:56,800
Speaker 5: it would be a drop for me if I had

612
00:30:56,800 --> 00:31:01,400
Speaker 5: to play anything here. Lester and Villa up next. Leicester

613
00:31:01,440 --> 00:31:03,760
Speaker 5: plus three fifty at home, Villa traveling at minus one

614
00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:07,880
Speaker 5: thirty eight. The draw is plus two eighty started a

615
00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:11,479
Speaker 5: pretty good effort from Villa all things considered against Arsenal,

616
00:31:12,800 --> 00:31:16,080
Speaker 5: Ali Watkins finishes, who knows where where we're at the

617
00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:19,960
Speaker 5: defense did look leaky against west Ham, and I don't

618
00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:22,040
Speaker 5: know if they've sorted that out yet, Sam, but you

619
00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:25,360
Speaker 5: think that they could get that all taken care of

620
00:31:25,440 --> 00:31:27,400
Speaker 5: and do a job here on the road against Leicester.

621
00:31:28,600 --> 00:31:31,680
Speaker 2: The defense looks a bit leaky, but I'm not sure

622
00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:37,800
Speaker 2: what Leicester's frontline is up to. I've probably repeated myself

623
00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:40,600
Speaker 2: in the last few weeks, and I'll quickly start off

624
00:31:40,680 --> 00:31:42,520
Speaker 2: with two things that have happened in the last day

625
00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:42,760
Speaker 2: or so.

626
00:31:43,440 --> 00:31:43,640
Speaker 4: Well.

627
00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:47,640
Speaker 2: Phazed, Leicester's center half's reportedly handled in a transfer request.

628
00:31:48,280 --> 00:31:51,600
Speaker 2: Leicester's main central defender, so they're really light as it is,

629
00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:53,880
Speaker 2: so that's a bit of a headache for Cooper obviously.

630
00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:57,440
Speaker 2: And also last night Leicester hosted Trammere at the king

631
00:31:57,560 --> 00:32:01,680
Speaker 2: Power on Tuesday night, so we're recording when day morning

632
00:32:02,040 --> 00:32:05,560
Speaker 2: they won four il Cooper started Weld phase, Skip Winks

633
00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:09,920
Speaker 2: indeed matherdidi Au. So some will have needed minutes, but

634
00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:13,120
Speaker 2: some could have done without that extra Tuesday night game

635
00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:16,840
Speaker 2: ahead of Saturday's kickoff, and at this level that extra

636
00:32:17,000 --> 00:32:20,600
Speaker 2: percentage gained from Villa's rest could well be the difference.

637
00:32:21,480 --> 00:32:24,560
Speaker 2: But just in general for Leicester, it feels like opportunities

638
00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:27,920
Speaker 2: are really going to be few and far between in

639
00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:30,880
Speaker 2: open play for the foreseeable in the Premier League until

640
00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:34,120
Speaker 2: they get players through the door, and we've only got

641
00:32:34,120 --> 00:32:36,120
Speaker 2: a few days left of the transfer windows, so that's

642
00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:38,400
Speaker 2: a concern. Of their ten shots in the two to

643
00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:42,400
Speaker 2: one lost to Fulham, six of their ten shots came

644
00:32:42,520 --> 00:32:45,720
Speaker 2: directly from a set piece, lest this equalizer was from

645
00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:49,520
Speaker 2: a towering Welfast header from a corner. In terms of

646
00:32:49,840 --> 00:32:52,840
Speaker 2: phases of playing possession, just thirty three percent of Leicester's

647
00:32:52,840 --> 00:32:55,320
Speaker 2: passes have come in the opposition's half in the opening

648
00:32:55,360 --> 00:32:58,920
Speaker 2: two games this season. That's the lowest percentage in the division,

649
00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:02,080
Speaker 2: and by watching both for the games, it really did

650
00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:05,560
Speaker 2: feel like that too. I thought Villa looked decent against Arsenal.

651
00:33:05,800 --> 00:33:09,600
Speaker 2: Watkins has had a nightmare. Really dragged his first attempt

652
00:33:10,240 --> 00:33:13,520
Speaker 2: to the left of the post after Villa pressed effectively.

653
00:33:14,320 --> 00:33:16,400
Speaker 2: Bj Will will say it was a file, but not

654
00:33:16,600 --> 00:33:22,800
Speaker 2: so sure. And then another David Rare save. That Yeah,

655
00:33:22,880 --> 00:33:26,880
Speaker 2: that David Rare save was unbelievable. Really, but I want

656
00:33:26,920 --> 00:33:29,280
Speaker 2: my striker to be scoring that fair player to Raa

657
00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:31,600
Speaker 2: but you've got to be doing better there for me.

658
00:33:31,760 --> 00:33:35,440
Speaker 2: Watkins is actually on a seven game schooreless streak and

659
00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:39,040
Speaker 2: that's his longest in the division. Under Emris. So that's interesting,

660
00:33:39,120 --> 00:33:42,280
Speaker 2: that's that's something to watch out for. But since un

661
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:44,760
Speaker 2: Amri has come in to the Premier League since his

662
00:33:44,880 --> 00:33:47,560
Speaker 2: first away match in charge for a Villa in November

663
00:33:47,560 --> 00:33:50,400
Speaker 2: twenty twenty two, only City in Arsenal will have one

664
00:33:50,480 --> 00:33:54,640
Speaker 2: more away games than Villa, and before the Arsenal Villa,

665
00:33:55,240 --> 00:33:58,760
Speaker 2: before the Arsenal visit, Villa had already gone away from home,

666
00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:01,200
Speaker 2: got to win on the first the season against west

667
00:34:01,240 --> 00:34:04,120
Speaker 2: Ham away from home, new manager and the dugout there,

668
00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:08,719
Speaker 2: new big money signings, new frontline and they left there

669
00:34:08,760 --> 00:34:10,279
Speaker 2: with all three points. So if they can go and

670
00:34:10,360 --> 00:34:14,280
Speaker 2: do that at west Ham, then I'm pretty sure against

671
00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:17,760
Speaker 2: this lester outfit with limited options up top, I'm pretty

672
00:34:17,800 --> 00:34:20,239
Speaker 2: sure they can do it again at fairly good price.

673
00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:22,359
Speaker 2: And I've said all that, and I've realized i haven't

674
00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:25,319
Speaker 2: actually said my debt, which is Aston Villa minus zero

675
00:34:25,400 --> 00:34:29,239
Speaker 2: point seventy five Asian handicapped plus money plus one oh one.

676
00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:34,239
Speaker 5: Okay, let's flip it to west Ham and City the

677
00:34:34,280 --> 00:34:37,360
Speaker 5: Hammers plus six hundred City minus to forty the draws

678
00:34:37,360 --> 00:34:39,800
Speaker 5: plus three seventy five. Congrats to anyone who bet Ipswich

679
00:34:39,920 --> 00:34:44,480
Speaker 5: Town scored first against City it's pretty bet but then

680
00:34:44,560 --> 00:34:47,239
Speaker 5: it got away from them pretty quickly. City. I don't

681
00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:49,400
Speaker 5: know if they've been at the races quite yet, but

682
00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:53,000
Speaker 5: they don't really have to be and they should shouldn't

683
00:34:53,040 --> 00:34:55,279
Speaker 5: have too many issues scoring against this West Ham team,

684
00:34:55,280 --> 00:34:59,600
Speaker 5: which is also leaky in defense. I've got nothing here, Sam,

685
00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:03,280
Speaker 5: but think that this could be another opportunity for PEPs.

686
00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:04,560
Speaker 5: Mean just to run rampit now.

687
00:35:05,520 --> 00:35:08,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, just a bit of a lean really are when

688
00:35:08,680 --> 00:35:10,919
Speaker 2: you can get City on side at a fairly decent price,

689
00:35:10,960 --> 00:35:12,600
Speaker 2: I think you've got to explore it a little bit.

690
00:35:12,680 --> 00:35:16,160
Speaker 2: We've got Gondwan back and in contention to feature here,

691
00:35:16,200 --> 00:35:17,560
Speaker 2: which is a bit of fun I did.

692
00:35:17,560 --> 00:35:18,680
Speaker 5: Not expect amazing. Yeah.

693
00:35:19,640 --> 00:35:22,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's one of my favorite players. I think he's brilliant,

694
00:35:22,440 --> 00:35:24,120
Speaker 2: so it's nice to see him back in the Premier League.

695
00:35:24,600 --> 00:35:28,440
Speaker 2: So not a major fancy. But Manchester City to win

696
00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:31,120
Speaker 2: an under five goals comes out at minus one ten.

697
00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:34,560
Speaker 2: The concern for that that it is clearly that City

698
00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:37,120
Speaker 2: runs away with this and puts up four or five themselves,

699
00:35:37,480 --> 00:35:40,120
Speaker 2: which is an obvious concern. And City has scored at

700
00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:42,600
Speaker 2: least two goals in the last seven head to heads

701
00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:45,840
Speaker 2: against west Ham. The winning under five selection is landed

702
00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:48,759
Speaker 2: in seven of ten, with two games being drawn and

703
00:35:48,920 --> 00:35:51,719
Speaker 2: one actually being five mil to man City. So this

704
00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:55,120
Speaker 2: is a fixture that Manchester City dominates as a new coach,

705
00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:58,000
Speaker 2: new sign is knocking about London Stadium, as we've just

706
00:35:58,160 --> 00:36:01,840
Speaker 2: touched on, which might alter the course of this fixture

707
00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:04,240
Speaker 2: for the foreseeable. But if I was to lean towards

708
00:36:04,280 --> 00:36:06,320
Speaker 2: a pick after the City's pretty good start to the

709
00:36:06,400 --> 00:36:10,320
Speaker 2: season without a key midfielder and Rodery, and it'd probably

710
00:36:10,360 --> 00:36:12,399
Speaker 2: be City to win. An under four point five goes

711
00:36:12,400 --> 00:36:13,839
Speaker 2: out a fairly palatable price.

712
00:36:14,520 --> 00:36:17,520
Speaker 3: I think west Ham under eight and a half shots

713
00:36:17,640 --> 00:36:19,600
Speaker 3: is kind of interesting, and if it gets to a

714
00:36:19,600 --> 00:36:21,560
Speaker 3: little bit, starts sitting in like minus one forty right now,

715
00:36:21,600 --> 00:36:24,000
Speaker 3: which is kind of a steep price to pay. But

716
00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:27,400
Speaker 3: I'll say what I'm gonna say about Crystal Palace, but

717
00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:30,000
Speaker 3: west Ham kind of got dominated and got the field

718
00:36:30,080 --> 00:36:33,960
Speaker 3: tilted on them by Crystal Palace. Just in City is

719
00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:35,759
Speaker 3: going to probably do the exact same thing. And the

720
00:36:36,080 --> 00:36:39,759
Speaker 3: ipswitch match Michael was very evident of Pep like two

721
00:36:39,880 --> 00:36:42,439
Speaker 3: or three years ago, where it's just we're just gonna

722
00:36:42,520 --> 00:36:44,520
Speaker 3: kill the game. We're just gonna not let you have

723
00:36:44,600 --> 00:36:46,759
Speaker 3: the ball. You're never going to get a transition opportunity.

724
00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:48,680
Speaker 3: We're just gonna hold it and we're just gonna pass

725
00:36:48,719 --> 00:36:51,680
Speaker 3: the ball round until you actually win the ball off

726
00:36:51,719 --> 00:36:54,000
Speaker 3: of us. And so far, what I've seen from west

727
00:36:54,000 --> 00:36:57,120
Speaker 3: Ham is well they're not very good at pressing, just

728
00:36:57,239 --> 00:37:00,760
Speaker 3: like they were last season. So how are they gonna

729
00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:02,799
Speaker 3: get the ball and win it off the City?

730
00:37:02,840 --> 00:37:02,920
Speaker 4: Now?

731
00:37:02,920 --> 00:37:05,600
Speaker 3: They're much more dangerous in transition that Ipswiches. You saw

732
00:37:05,680 --> 00:37:09,160
Speaker 3: that against Crystal Palace, Jared Bowen scoring in transition and

733
00:37:09,239 --> 00:37:12,239
Speaker 3: they can definitely maybe get a goal here against Manchester City.

734
00:37:12,920 --> 00:37:16,080
Speaker 3: But in the two matches that they faced off against

735
00:37:16,120 --> 00:37:21,800
Speaker 3: City last season, first match they took three shots. In

736
00:37:21,880 --> 00:37:24,239
Speaker 3: the second match they took which was the final match

737
00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:28,759
Speaker 3: of the season, they took six shots. If they get

738
00:37:28,880 --> 00:37:32,200
Speaker 3: tilted like they did against Crystal Palace, I don't see

739
00:37:32,200 --> 00:37:35,520
Speaker 3: how they're getting the nine shots here, especially if Rodery's

740
00:37:35,560 --> 00:37:37,640
Speaker 3: back in, City's able to control things more, and the

741
00:37:37,719 --> 00:37:41,799
Speaker 3: Gundagun thing is is very good for City because they

742
00:37:41,880 --> 00:37:45,320
Speaker 3: needed a box crashing threat just everybody, you know, and

743
00:37:45,440 --> 00:37:47,719
Speaker 3: you know they haven't really had that with Kobachi, So

744
00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:49,879
Speaker 3: now they can have somebody in a more advanced role

745
00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:54,200
Speaker 3: that can actually provide nomally shots but creation aspect, whereas

746
00:37:54,239 --> 00:37:56,480
Speaker 3: Kobachis really couldn't do that and Rodri had to be

747
00:37:56,520 --> 00:37:59,239
Speaker 3: the one to do it. So allows Rodri to play

748
00:37:59,280 --> 00:38:02,439
Speaker 3: more of a defensive role, which I think ultimately makes

749
00:38:02,480 --> 00:38:05,200
Speaker 3: City better. But here I think I'll probably end up

750
00:38:05,239 --> 00:38:06,880
Speaker 3: on west Ham under eight and half shots.

751
00:38:07,360 --> 00:38:09,320
Speaker 5: Yeah, really really happy for City to get gun to

752
00:38:09,400 --> 00:38:12,200
Speaker 5: gun and back in good. Things rarely happened to that club,

753
00:38:13,480 --> 00:38:15,360
Speaker 5: so nice to see them pitch a break every once.

754
00:38:15,200 --> 00:38:15,560
Speaker 1: In a while.

755
00:38:16,040 --> 00:38:18,719
Speaker 3: We'll see, We'll see in September, Michaels things continue to

756
00:38:18,760 --> 00:38:19,520
Speaker 3: happen to that club.

757
00:38:20,239 --> 00:38:23,719
Speaker 5: Something tells me they will Sunday. I love the three

758
00:38:23,760 --> 00:38:27,000
Speaker 5: Sunday fixtures are awesome. I think all three of them

759
00:38:27,160 --> 00:38:30,080
Speaker 5: are really fun to bet. We already talked about United

760
00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:34,000
Speaker 5: and Liverpool. Now let's talk about Chelsea and Palace. Chelsea

761
00:38:34,120 --> 00:38:36,319
Speaker 5: minus won seventy five, Palace plus four to twenty five.

762
00:38:37,000 --> 00:38:39,520
Speaker 5: The draw here is plus three thirty three. I know

763
00:38:39,640 --> 00:38:41,920
Speaker 5: the start to the season has not been great for

764
00:38:42,440 --> 00:38:46,919
Speaker 5: Palace at all, but things could not have gun better

765
00:38:47,080 --> 00:38:49,600
Speaker 5: for you if you wanted to bet Crystal Palace in

766
00:38:49,680 --> 00:38:53,200
Speaker 5: this match last weekend, which we all I think wanted

767
00:38:53,239 --> 00:38:56,640
Speaker 5: to do and try to take Chelsea on. Chelsea runs

768
00:38:57,360 --> 00:39:01,040
Speaker 5: Riot in a really strange game against Wolves, Palace falls,

769
00:39:01,040 --> 00:39:03,840
Speaker 5: as BJ says to west Ham in a game that

770
00:39:03,920 --> 00:39:07,480
Speaker 5: they deserve more from. They lose to one. Renforded their

771
00:39:07,520 --> 00:39:09,840
Speaker 5: opener another game that was kind of in the balance

772
00:39:09,880 --> 00:39:12,680
Speaker 5: as well. So now you're getting a ballooned price on

773
00:39:12,880 --> 00:39:15,600
Speaker 5: Crystal Palace on the road at Chelsea. I think it's

774
00:39:15,640 --> 00:39:19,280
Speaker 5: a great bet plus four twenty five. They are absolutely

775
00:39:19,320 --> 00:39:21,200
Speaker 5: live to do this. You look at what they did

776
00:39:21,760 --> 00:39:24,440
Speaker 5: under Glossner over the second half of last year was

777
00:39:24,520 --> 00:39:28,040
Speaker 5: really impressive. We know that this Chelsea team still, despite

778
00:39:28,080 --> 00:39:29,799
Speaker 5: that win against Wolves, is a bit of a mess.

779
00:39:30,640 --> 00:39:33,359
Speaker 5: That one win, especially in the fashion that it came,

780
00:39:33,480 --> 00:39:37,239
Speaker 5: does not solve everything going on there, and Pallas are

781
00:39:37,280 --> 00:39:39,800
Speaker 5: just going they were overrated to start this season, Like

782
00:39:39,880 --> 00:39:41,879
Speaker 5: I think we all could agree with that. Now they're

783
00:39:41,920 --> 00:39:45,000
Speaker 5: back to being underrated after two losses. So I love

784
00:39:45,080 --> 00:39:46,839
Speaker 5: Palace here, BJ plus four twenty five.

785
00:39:47,600 --> 00:39:48,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, Chelsea.

786
00:39:48,560 --> 00:39:51,359
Speaker 3: So I think Chelsea did open up at a decent

787
00:39:51,440 --> 00:39:53,720
Speaker 3: price here in terms of at least a fair price.

788
00:39:53,840 --> 00:39:56,000
Speaker 3: They were minus one thirty when they opened up ten

789
00:39:56,080 --> 00:39:59,320
Speaker 3: days ago. Now we're sitting at minus one seventy because

790
00:39:59,320 --> 00:40:02,640
Speaker 3: they scored six goals against Wolves. But here's the thing is,

791
00:40:02,719 --> 00:40:06,000
Speaker 3: I think that Chelsea still has some very very clear

792
00:40:06,160 --> 00:40:09,560
Speaker 3: out of possession issues that Wolves just really couldn't exploit that.

793
00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:12,920
Speaker 3: I think Crystal Palace really can. They're way too aggressive

794
00:40:12,960 --> 00:40:14,640
Speaker 3: with their high pressing. They go and a man a

795
00:40:14,719 --> 00:40:17,120
Speaker 3: man fashion. They leave the middle of the pitch wide

796
00:40:17,200 --> 00:40:20,600
Speaker 3: open at times. If you watch Palace under glassner. They

797
00:40:20,640 --> 00:40:22,279
Speaker 3: are very good at building out of the back and

798
00:40:22,320 --> 00:40:24,840
Speaker 3: they are very good at playing through the middle of

799
00:40:24,920 --> 00:40:26,920
Speaker 3: the pitch, which I think can cause Chelsea a lot

800
00:40:26,960 --> 00:40:29,440
Speaker 3: of problems. They also are very good at finding the

801
00:40:29,520 --> 00:40:32,040
Speaker 3: overloads where they need to be found. You know, if

802
00:40:32,080 --> 00:40:35,680
Speaker 3: you watch the Chelsea match versus City, City just kept

803
00:40:35,719 --> 00:40:37,879
Speaker 3: overloading the wide areas they were building up in three

804
00:40:37,920 --> 00:40:40,080
Speaker 3: one six. They were getting you know, three B twos

805
00:40:40,160 --> 00:40:42,560
Speaker 3: or four V threes out wide and creating chances on

806
00:40:42,680 --> 00:40:44,839
Speaker 3: that over and over and over again. That is something

807
00:40:44,920 --> 00:40:47,200
Speaker 3: Palace can exactly do here against Chelsea.

808
00:40:47,600 --> 00:40:51,239
Speaker 1: The worry here for Palace is, Okay, let's say that

809
00:40:51,360 --> 00:40:52,279
Speaker 1: Chelsea they're at home.

810
00:40:52,400 --> 00:40:54,919
Speaker 3: Let's just say they control sixty to sixty five percent

811
00:40:54,960 --> 00:40:58,120
Speaker 3: of the ball. Can Palace play in that type of scenario, Well,

812
00:40:58,880 --> 00:41:02,040
Speaker 3: they're getting somebody back that I think helps them play

813
00:41:02,200 --> 00:41:04,000
Speaker 3: in that type of scenario and is Check to Corey.

814
00:41:04,440 --> 00:41:07,600
Speaker 3: He started in their EFL Cup match against Norwich City.

815
00:41:08,080 --> 00:41:11,799
Speaker 3: He was injured all of last season. Two seasons ago,

816
00:41:12,400 --> 00:41:15,040
Speaker 3: he had one hundred and thirty tackles plus interceptions, which

817
00:41:15,160 --> 00:41:17,520
Speaker 3: was the sixth best mark in the Premier League. What

818
00:41:17,719 --> 00:41:20,440
Speaker 3: he also allows is Adam Wharton to play a more

819
00:41:20,520 --> 00:41:23,439
Speaker 3: advanced role, which is where he is truly at his best.

820
00:41:23,520 --> 00:41:25,000
Speaker 3: You know, a lot of times they've had to have

821
00:41:25,160 --> 00:41:28,160
Speaker 3: Will Hughes as they're more advanced type of number number

822
00:41:28,160 --> 00:41:31,680
Speaker 3: eight midfielder, whereas Wharton has had to have more defensive cover. Well,

823
00:41:31,760 --> 00:41:33,880
Speaker 3: now you allow Warden to play his best position and

824
00:41:34,040 --> 00:41:37,759
Speaker 3: have check Corey as that defensive cover. Now, what I

825
00:41:37,840 --> 00:41:40,279
Speaker 3: will tell people is, you know, as you're listening to this,

826
00:41:40,800 --> 00:41:43,520
Speaker 3: I think you can wait until Sunday and to actually

827
00:41:43,640 --> 00:41:46,799
Speaker 3: bet Crystal Palace because a couple of things might happen.

828
00:41:46,880 --> 00:41:49,680
Speaker 3: I think people will continue to bet Chelsea and Mark

829
00:41:49,680 --> 00:41:52,640
Speaker 3: Gahe might leave by the time that we by the

830
00:41:52,680 --> 00:41:56,000
Speaker 3: time we reached Sunday. You know, there's rumors that Newcastle

831
00:41:56,120 --> 00:41:58,920
Speaker 3: is up to to seventy million now, which is kind

832
00:41:58,960 --> 00:42:01,040
Speaker 3: of a crazy price on it. I'm not sure if

833
00:42:01,040 --> 00:42:02,600
Speaker 3: he's worth that much. He's a very good defender. I

834
00:42:02,600 --> 00:42:04,560
Speaker 3: don't know if seventy million, so we'll see if that

835
00:42:04,680 --> 00:42:07,400
Speaker 3: actually happens. But if Gay is in there and Krystal

836
00:42:07,440 --> 00:42:12,440
Speaker 3: Palace has all of their players available, Chelsea is definitely overvalued.

837
00:42:12,480 --> 00:42:14,399
Speaker 3: I mean, they scored their six goals off of point

838
00:42:14,480 --> 00:42:17,200
Speaker 3: seven expectacles against Wolves, like, It's not like they created

839
00:42:17,280 --> 00:42:21,800
Speaker 3: high quality chances. So I think Crystal Palace is definitely

840
00:42:21,840 --> 00:42:24,719
Speaker 3: alive here. They're very versatile team, both in and out

841
00:42:24,719 --> 00:42:26,920
Speaker 3: of possession. They can cause Chelsea a lot of problems.

842
00:42:27,000 --> 00:42:29,560
Speaker 3: So I like them at plus one at minus one ten,

843
00:42:30,239 --> 00:42:30,520
Speaker 3: come on.

844
00:42:30,640 --> 00:42:33,680
Speaker 5: Sam, I have no bet.

845
00:42:33,840 --> 00:42:36,880
Speaker 2: But in terms of Crystal Palace right now, exactly like

846
00:42:37,040 --> 00:42:40,839
Speaker 2: BJ just said, they've lost Jokim Ma Anderson, they might

847
00:42:40,920 --> 00:42:44,239
Speaker 2: be losing Mark Gayhee, They've lost Alise obviously early on

848
00:42:44,320 --> 00:42:46,600
Speaker 2: in the window. They've got Meteta up front, who looks

849
00:42:46,600 --> 00:42:50,239
Speaker 2: a bit leggy from the Olympics. Camadies come in looks

850
00:42:50,280 --> 00:42:53,760
Speaker 2: decent as as still there just right now at the minute,

851
00:42:54,120 --> 00:42:56,160
Speaker 2: I think it's a bit of an uphill battle for

852
00:42:56,440 --> 00:42:59,359
Speaker 2: glassnow and that Palace team they need a few more

853
00:42:59,400 --> 00:43:02,440
Speaker 2: reinforcement and so I'm just not sold on wanting to

854
00:43:03,160 --> 00:43:06,040
Speaker 2: get behind them, even if they do play a Chelsea team,

855
00:43:06,120 --> 00:43:11,719
Speaker 2: which is I don't even know how you describe them, like,

856
00:43:11,840 --> 00:43:13,560
Speaker 2: I don't think anyone saw like, was it six to

857
00:43:13,600 --> 00:43:14,680
Speaker 2: two against the Wolves.

858
00:43:14,719 --> 00:43:18,960
Speaker 4: I don't think anyone saw that coming. So I don't know.

859
00:43:20,040 --> 00:43:22,640
Speaker 2: I don't know where this Chelsea team or out. I

860
00:43:22,719 --> 00:43:24,920
Speaker 2: can't really pin them at the minute. They may be

861
00:43:25,040 --> 00:43:29,279
Speaker 2: absolutely brilliant. I'm kind of leading towards the other side

862
00:43:29,280 --> 00:43:32,399
Speaker 2: of it that they're probably not. So Yeah, this game

863
00:43:32,480 --> 00:43:35,839
Speaker 2: in general, Whi's just one that I'd rather stay clear

864
00:43:35,880 --> 00:43:36,839
Speaker 2: from as born as.

865
00:43:37,880 --> 00:43:41,200
Speaker 5: It shouldn't be boring. When Newcastle and Spurs meet, both

866
00:43:41,239 --> 00:43:45,200
Speaker 5: of these teams are very happy to go forward, not

867
00:43:45,640 --> 00:43:51,600
Speaker 5: so fussed about defending. Newcastle is a very very slight favorite.

868
00:43:51,600 --> 00:43:53,800
Speaker 5: It's basically a pickup and the three way line is

869
00:43:53,840 --> 00:43:56,240
Speaker 5: plus one forty five and the mad Power Spurs traveling

870
00:43:56,239 --> 00:43:59,239
Speaker 5: plus one fifty. The draws plus three hundred. Spurs coming

871
00:43:59,280 --> 00:44:03,200
Speaker 5: off of a win over an edwarded team that just

872
00:44:03,480 --> 00:44:07,440
Speaker 5: wasn't very good at all. So read into that which

873
00:44:07,480 --> 00:44:12,000
Speaker 5: you will. If Newcastle it has been a disjointed start

874
00:44:12,040 --> 00:44:15,360
Speaker 5: to the season. Obviously, the first win against Southampton was

875
00:44:15,840 --> 00:44:21,600
Speaker 5: gritty considering the uh the red card. Then they are

876
00:44:21,680 --> 00:44:23,960
Speaker 5: a little lucky, I would say against Bourne Mith to

877
00:44:24,000 --> 00:44:27,799
Speaker 5: earn the draw one one. But we were really high

878
00:44:27,840 --> 00:44:29,680
Speaker 5: on this team coming into the year. There's some injury

879
00:44:29,719 --> 00:44:31,600
Speaker 5: issues that we have to sort through for this match,

880
00:44:31,640 --> 00:44:33,560
Speaker 5: which perhaps changed things a little bit just in the

881
00:44:33,600 --> 00:44:37,480
Speaker 5: immediate term. I don't think I'm going to change my

882
00:44:37,800 --> 00:44:41,319
Speaker 5: tune on Newcastle in the big picture at all. This match, though,

883
00:44:41,360 --> 00:44:43,680
Speaker 5: I think, is just one that everyone is going to

884
00:44:43,680 --> 00:44:47,279
Speaker 5: be rushing to the window to back something similar, whether

885
00:44:47,360 --> 00:44:51,480
Speaker 5: it's the overs or you know, team to win from behind,

886
00:44:51,640 --> 00:44:56,080
Speaker 5: something where the match is just kind of back and

887
00:44:56,160 --> 00:44:58,800
Speaker 5: forth and crazy. I maybe want to throw together a

888
00:44:58,960 --> 00:45:03,000
Speaker 5: fun exact score three to two Newcastle is twenty to one,

889
00:45:03,080 --> 00:45:05,279
Speaker 5: two two eleven to one, something like that. The point

890
00:45:05,400 --> 00:45:08,160
Speaker 5: is goals bj mm hmm.

891
00:45:08,880 --> 00:45:10,759
Speaker 3: I love over three and a half here, I really do.

892
00:45:12,640 --> 00:45:16,040
Speaker 3: If there is a team out there that can be

893
00:45:16,800 --> 00:45:22,160
Speaker 3: a post Konglu's kryptonite, it's definitely Newcastle and you saw

894
00:45:22,280 --> 00:45:24,760
Speaker 3: that towards the end of last season when they hammered

895
00:45:24,800 --> 00:45:28,239
Speaker 3: them at Saint James Park for nothing. That Tottenham team

896
00:45:28,440 --> 00:45:31,320
Speaker 3: was full strength by the way, all those regular starters

897
00:45:31,360 --> 00:45:34,200
Speaker 3: were available. Obviously, Silonki is gonna miss this matchup. It's

898
00:45:34,200 --> 00:45:37,000
Speaker 3: pretty much the same starting eleven that Tottenham had last

899
00:45:37,000 --> 00:45:38,960
Speaker 3: season that they're gonna come to Saint James Park as well.

900
00:45:39,400 --> 00:45:44,200
Speaker 3: And what kept happening is Tottenham when they build out

901
00:45:44,200 --> 00:45:46,479
Speaker 3: of their two three five they I mentioned this many times,

902
00:45:46,520 --> 00:45:49,520
Speaker 3: but they they invert Udogi and Poro into the middle

903
00:45:49,520 --> 00:45:51,719
Speaker 3: of the pitch, which obviously allows them to overload, puts

904
00:45:51,719 --> 00:45:55,120
Speaker 3: a lot of pressure on the opposing defense, but you

905
00:45:55,239 --> 00:45:58,960
Speaker 3: also leave Romero and van derven on islands and against

906
00:45:58,960 --> 00:46:00,480
Speaker 3: a lot of teams in the Premier they are good

907
00:46:00,560 --> 00:46:03,440
Speaker 3: enough to mop up those type of transition attacks, but

908
00:46:03,640 --> 00:46:06,680
Speaker 3: not Newcastle because what kept happening is Newcastle was getting

909
00:46:06,719 --> 00:46:09,200
Speaker 3: either two B two's or one v ones with e

910
00:46:09,360 --> 00:46:12,120
Speaker 3: Shak or Gordon against those two defenders, and they punished

911
00:46:12,200 --> 00:46:15,479
Speaker 3: them over and over and over again. In that match,

912
00:46:16,080 --> 00:46:20,080
Speaker 3: Newcastle had seven counter attacking shots, that is tied for

913
00:46:20,160 --> 00:46:22,799
Speaker 3: the most in the Premier League match last season tied

914
00:46:22,880 --> 00:46:26,200
Speaker 3: with when Newcastle got beat four to by Liverpool and

915
00:46:26,200 --> 00:46:30,680
Speaker 3: Liverpool put up seven expected goals, so they definitely can

916
00:46:30,800 --> 00:46:32,880
Speaker 3: do a lot out of possession. I think what's interesting

917
00:46:33,000 --> 00:46:35,560
Speaker 3: is what they will do. You mentioned the injuries, Michael

918
00:46:36,080 --> 00:46:40,239
Speaker 3: Lacelle's boatman and shutting out shars is suspended as well,

919
00:46:40,680 --> 00:46:42,920
Speaker 3: so they went with a makeshift center back pairing of

920
00:46:43,040 --> 00:46:46,880
Speaker 3: Emil Kraft and Dan Byrne against Bournemouth over the weekend,

921
00:46:47,000 --> 00:46:50,960
Speaker 3: conceded almost two expected goals. What we've seen from Newcastle

922
00:46:51,080 --> 00:46:53,840
Speaker 3: towards the end of last season was we're just going

923
00:46:53,920 --> 00:46:56,280
Speaker 3: to go four thretey three. We're with our high press

924
00:46:56,320 --> 00:46:58,279
Speaker 3: where we know we're more physical than you, so we're

925
00:46:58,360 --> 00:47:00,960
Speaker 3: just gonna, you know, take it is where it is.

926
00:47:01,080 --> 00:47:03,279
Speaker 3: We might get beat over the top. I think they

927
00:47:03,320 --> 00:47:05,160
Speaker 3: should do that here against Tottham, and when they did

928
00:47:05,200 --> 00:47:06,440
Speaker 3: do it in the first half of that four to

929
00:47:06,520 --> 00:47:08,480
Speaker 3: ninh thing defeat, they are excuse me, a four and

930
00:47:08,480 --> 00:47:10,800
Speaker 3: a thing win. They really forced to him into a

931
00:47:10,840 --> 00:47:13,319
Speaker 3: lot of long balls and their physicality really took over.

932
00:47:13,920 --> 00:47:18,239
Speaker 3: The other end of the spectrum is okay. Midway through

933
00:47:18,280 --> 00:47:20,440
Speaker 3: the season last year where they got beat pretty badly

934
00:47:20,520 --> 00:47:22,200
Speaker 3: by Tottenham because they were going through a lot of

935
00:47:22,239 --> 00:47:24,960
Speaker 3: injuries similar to how they are now, and they were

936
00:47:25,360 --> 00:47:27,520
Speaker 3: fixtures were piling up with Champions League, so they were

937
00:47:27,520 --> 00:47:29,640
Speaker 3: playing a passive four or five to one and Tottenham

938
00:47:29,760 --> 00:47:31,520
Speaker 3: was just breaking them down over and over again and

939
00:47:31,600 --> 00:47:33,240
Speaker 3: created close to four expected goals.

940
00:47:33,440 --> 00:47:35,400
Speaker 1: So whatever type of out.

941
00:47:35,280 --> 00:47:37,280
Speaker 3: Of possession structure Newcastle tries.

942
00:47:37,120 --> 00:47:38,920
Speaker 1: To do, it's going to lead to goals.

943
00:47:39,160 --> 00:47:41,640
Speaker 3: So I really like over three and a half goals here.

944
00:47:42,040 --> 00:47:44,680
Speaker 3: Both the first meeting had four and a half expected goals,

945
00:47:44,719 --> 00:47:48,319
Speaker 3: the second meeting had three point six. So Newcastle, I mean,

946
00:47:48,360 --> 00:47:50,600
Speaker 3: they're so good offensively. At Saint Chances Park they averaged

947
00:47:50,600 --> 00:47:53,960
Speaker 3: two point four expected goals for ninety there, so I

948
00:47:54,080 --> 00:47:55,759
Speaker 3: love them. I love this over three and a half

949
00:47:55,840 --> 00:47:57,800
Speaker 3: at it was getting down closer to even money, but

950
00:47:57,840 --> 00:47:59,000
Speaker 3: I'll do it a minus one o five.

951
00:48:00,080 --> 00:48:03,480
Speaker 5: Going to take it to the next level here, Sam, Yes.

952
00:48:03,560 --> 00:48:05,799
Speaker 2: Both teams have scored both as at six to one,

953
00:48:05,840 --> 00:48:08,480
Speaker 2: which is a bit of fun. So Spurs is going

954
00:48:08,560 --> 00:48:11,279
Speaker 2: to come and have a real good go at Saint

955
00:48:11,360 --> 00:48:15,279
Speaker 2: James's Park despite the four nil loss last season and

956
00:48:15,640 --> 00:48:19,160
Speaker 2: despite the six to one loss at the season before,

957
00:48:19,760 --> 00:48:23,240
Speaker 2: which was under Antonio Conte's interim assistance.

958
00:48:23,320 --> 00:48:25,160
Speaker 4: I don't know how much we can go off that.

959
00:48:26,120 --> 00:48:29,600
Speaker 2: Last season, Spurs's three point six to eight goes average

960
00:48:29,640 --> 00:48:32,240
Speaker 2: away from home was the third highest in the division.

961
00:48:32,760 --> 00:48:35,719
Speaker 2: They're expected goes four per ninety away figure of one

962
00:48:35,760 --> 00:48:38,680
Speaker 2: point five to two was only bettered by the three

963
00:48:38,760 --> 00:48:41,279
Speaker 2: teams who finished in the top three. So they will

964
00:48:41,320 --> 00:48:45,080
Speaker 2: get at Newcastle and rest assured, especially after the last

965
00:48:45,120 --> 00:48:48,400
Speaker 2: two instances which Eddie Howe and the majority of the

966
00:48:48,440 --> 00:48:51,600
Speaker 2: squad are still there fresh in the memory. Newcastle will

967
00:48:51,640 --> 00:48:56,239
Speaker 2: also like their chances. So Newcastle versus Tottenham interesting stat

968
00:48:56,320 --> 00:48:58,880
Speaker 2: It's the most played fixture in Premier League history to

969
00:48:59,040 --> 00:49:02,880
Speaker 2: never finish nil nil our fifty eight games. So I

970
00:49:02,960 --> 00:49:05,239
Speaker 2: know you're like your Neil Neil score lines, Michael, it's

971
00:49:05,280 --> 00:49:05,719
Speaker 2: twenty five.

972
00:49:07,800 --> 00:49:09,480
Speaker 1: Come on, you gotta go fifty to one for that.

973
00:49:09,719 --> 00:49:10,640
Speaker 5: I know that's what I was thinking.

974
00:49:10,640 --> 00:49:11,360
Speaker 1: I was able to get that.

975
00:49:11,600 --> 00:49:14,680
Speaker 5: I feel like last year, for matches like this, the

976
00:49:15,320 --> 00:49:17,320
Speaker 5: bookmakers would just slap a thirty three to one on

977
00:49:17,440 --> 00:49:19,120
Speaker 5: it and go to bed at night, just like we'll

978
00:49:19,360 --> 00:49:21,120
Speaker 5: we'll just make it thirty three. So we're getting a

979
00:49:21,120 --> 00:49:24,880
Speaker 5: little short here. That said, I mean, as we get closer,

980
00:49:24,920 --> 00:49:26,040
Speaker 5: I'll probably have something.

981
00:49:26,960 --> 00:49:30,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, I thought you might, right, So yeah, last weekend

982
00:49:31,040 --> 00:49:35,880
Speaker 2: it didn't. It didn't really click for Newcastle wet Bournemouth.

983
00:49:35,960 --> 00:49:38,080
Speaker 2: It felt like Easac was left to doing a lot

984
00:49:38,160 --> 00:49:40,279
Speaker 2: of the work by himself up top of he was

985
00:49:40,360 --> 00:49:42,880
Speaker 2: battling all the game and just felt that he needed

986
00:49:42,920 --> 00:49:45,719
Speaker 2: a bit more up there, a bit more help up

987
00:49:45,760 --> 00:49:49,120
Speaker 2: there to encourage a few periods of sustained Newcastle pressure.

988
00:49:49,400 --> 00:49:52,440
Speaker 2: Harvey Barnes come on and he's back from injury now,

989
00:49:53,000 --> 00:49:56,359
Speaker 2: great player I think, and Newcastle will really benefit from

990
00:49:56,440 --> 00:49:58,000
Speaker 2: him on the side on the left and ant Andy

991
00:49:58,040 --> 00:50:00,239
Speaker 2: Gordon on the white Easac down the middle of that's

992
00:50:00,719 --> 00:50:05,239
Speaker 2: such a good front free But yeah, Bournemouth for really

993
00:50:05,280 --> 00:50:07,440
Speaker 2: tough to play against. We know that Newcastle won't be

994
00:50:07,560 --> 00:50:09,800
Speaker 2: the only top six is hopeful to come close to

995
00:50:10,400 --> 00:50:13,840
Speaker 2: losing out the vitality this season, that's for sure. But

996
00:50:13,920 --> 00:50:16,680
Speaker 2: it's a different story for Newcastle at home, much more

997
00:50:16,719 --> 00:50:19,440
Speaker 2: comfortable in front of home support. And Newcastle will have

998
00:50:19,480 --> 00:50:22,120
Speaker 2: scored at least once in each of their last twenty

999
00:50:22,200 --> 00:50:24,840
Speaker 2: Premier League home games. So the Newcastle were good for

1000
00:50:24,920 --> 00:50:28,440
Speaker 2: a go. You'd say Tottenham are two and I think

1001
00:50:28,560 --> 00:50:31,440
Speaker 2: this is a game that could well descending to chaos,

1002
00:50:31,480 --> 00:50:34,160
Speaker 2: which we love the line here over three point five.

1003
00:50:34,680 --> 00:50:38,200
Speaker 2: BJ's having it for me. It's personal preference. I just

1004
00:50:38,320 --> 00:50:41,080
Speaker 2: don't really like the thought of needing four goals to

1005
00:50:41,200 --> 00:50:44,200
Speaker 2: pay me out around even so, usually when there's a

1006
00:50:44,280 --> 00:50:47,719
Speaker 2: game like this where you expect goals and you think

1007
00:50:48,040 --> 00:50:50,440
Speaker 2: there may be a fair few, I'll look to try

1008
00:50:50,480 --> 00:50:52,399
Speaker 2: and get something at a bigger price. For both teams

1009
00:50:52,400 --> 00:50:54,880
Speaker 2: to score in both halfs is usually up around ten.

1010
00:50:54,760 --> 00:50:55,560
Speaker 4: To one, eleven twelve.

1011
00:50:55,560 --> 00:50:59,120
Speaker 2: We're not getting that, obviously, but six to one fairly

1012
00:50:59,160 --> 00:51:02,319
Speaker 2: short for the market. But if we expect to see

1013
00:51:02,320 --> 00:51:05,160
Speaker 2: ifafew goes, then it may will come close pretty good.

1014
00:51:05,160 --> 00:51:11,040
Speaker 5: Parest Okay, that's the Premier League all wrapped up for

1015
00:51:11,160 --> 00:51:14,520
Speaker 5: this match week. We'll move on to Europe. Will hand

1016
00:51:14,560 --> 00:51:16,960
Speaker 5: it over to BJ in a second before we do that,

1017
00:51:17,080 --> 00:51:19,880
Speaker 5: and then get to Championship bets as well as our

1018
00:51:19,960 --> 00:51:22,400
Speaker 5: underdogs and best bets. A reminder that wonder goal is

1019
00:51:22,440 --> 00:51:24,440
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00:51:35,680 --> 00:51:37,160
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1028
00:51:41,239 --> 00:51:43,560
Speaker 5: six five. You must be twenty one or older and

1029
00:51:43,640 --> 00:51:48,160
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1030
00:51:48,280 --> 00:51:51,239
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1031
00:51:51,320 --> 00:51:53,319
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00:51:53,360 --> 00:51:55,520
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1034
00:52:01,160 --> 00:52:04,040
Speaker 5: BJ what do you got around the rest of the continent, Yeah,

1035
00:52:04,120 --> 00:52:04,480
Speaker 5: let's just go.

1036
00:52:04,600 --> 00:52:09,400
Speaker 3: Bundesliga Bochum gladboch over two and a half at minus

1037
00:52:09,480 --> 00:52:13,600
Speaker 3: one forty five last season. Both of these matches has

1038
00:52:13,680 --> 00:52:16,320
Speaker 3: He saw four plus goals and four plus.

1039
00:52:16,280 --> 00:52:17,560
Speaker 1: Expected goals as well.

1040
00:52:18,000 --> 00:52:22,080
Speaker 3: Gladbach looks like they are going to lose their star

1041
00:52:22,239 --> 00:52:28,080
Speaker 3: midfielder kone to Macone to ac Milan. It looks like

1042
00:52:28,160 --> 00:52:31,360
Speaker 3: they found a pretty good striker in cleindinstant to excuse

1043
00:52:31,400 --> 00:52:35,160
Speaker 3: me if I got that name wrong from Heidenheim scored

1044
00:52:35,160 --> 00:52:37,000
Speaker 3: a goal against leverracusin looks like he's a very good

1045
00:52:37,040 --> 00:52:39,200
Speaker 3: transition striker, which is what this match really should be.

1046
00:52:39,280 --> 00:52:41,600
Speaker 3: It should be very back back and forth with a

1047
00:52:41,640 --> 00:52:43,759
Speaker 3: lot of chances at both ends. So I like over

1048
00:52:43,800 --> 00:52:46,239
Speaker 3: two and a half at minus one forty five in

1049
00:52:46,400 --> 00:52:50,480
Speaker 3: that match. In siri A, Cagliari Leche both teams to

1050
00:52:50,520 --> 00:52:56,840
Speaker 3: score at even money. Cagliari is under the under now

1051
00:52:56,960 --> 00:53:00,640
Speaker 3: under Debudee Nicola, who was managing and pulled for about

1052
00:53:01,239 --> 00:53:03,040
Speaker 3: second half of the season. Last year, they were a

1053
00:53:03,080 --> 00:53:07,080
Speaker 3: bottom five defensive team under him. They should continue to

1054
00:53:07,160 --> 00:53:09,640
Speaker 3: trend that way and be a little bit worse defensively.

1055
00:53:09,800 --> 00:53:12,600
Speaker 3: Leche was one of the worst defensive teams in Syria

1056
00:53:12,600 --> 00:53:15,279
Speaker 3: A last season, conceded well over two expected goals per

1057
00:53:15,360 --> 00:53:17,839
Speaker 3: ninety minutes. So I think both teams to score at

1058
00:53:17,880 --> 00:53:20,279
Speaker 3: even money is a little bit too low. And then

1059
00:53:20,480 --> 00:53:24,480
Speaker 3: in Spain, Valencia dront O bett plus one oh five

1060
00:53:24,560 --> 00:53:26,440
Speaker 3: at home against via Real.

1061
00:53:27,920 --> 00:53:30,560
Speaker 1: The first three vi Areel matches.

1062
00:53:30,680 --> 00:53:33,200
Speaker 3: Looks like defense is going to be optional for them

1063
00:53:33,280 --> 00:53:36,080
Speaker 3: this season, conceded almost three expected goals to sell to Vigo,

1064
00:53:37,440 --> 00:53:42,000
Speaker 3: was conceded well close to twenty shots against Sevilla. Valencia

1065
00:53:42,040 --> 00:53:43,960
Speaker 3: has not looked great to start the season, but when

1066
00:53:44,000 --> 00:53:46,920
Speaker 3: they faced the Ariel last season at home, they dominated

1067
00:53:47,000 --> 00:53:50,680
Speaker 3: them unexpected goals two point eight too point five. They've

1068
00:53:50,719 --> 00:53:54,480
Speaker 3: been a much better defensive team under Rubin Braja, who's

1069
00:53:54,640 --> 00:53:58,640
Speaker 3: taken over on February fourteenth of last season. So I

1070
00:53:58,760 --> 00:54:02,560
Speaker 3: think Dronto bett plus one o five, especially being at home,

1071
00:54:02,600 --> 00:54:06,799
Speaker 3: I think is severely undervalued, especially with vi Real losing

1072
00:54:06,840 --> 00:54:08,960
Speaker 3: a lot of key players, including solaf who scored twenty

1073
00:54:09,000 --> 00:54:10,280
Speaker 3: three goals for them last season.

1074
00:54:10,480 --> 00:54:13,719
Speaker 1: So viril drohno bet at plus one h five for

1075
00:54:13,800 --> 00:54:14,280
Speaker 1: me in Spain.

1076
00:54:14,920 --> 00:54:17,080
Speaker 5: Okay, then over to the championship, Sam, what do you

1077
00:54:17,160 --> 00:54:18,080
Speaker 5: got so.

1078
00:54:18,239 --> 00:54:22,000
Speaker 2: Stoke versus more beloved Plymouthfargo and going for Stoke City?

1079
00:54:23,520 --> 00:54:26,640
Speaker 4: No, yeah, I am really sorry. Yeah, it's got to

1080
00:54:26,680 --> 00:54:28,719
Speaker 4: be done. Minus won ten.

1081
00:54:29,960 --> 00:54:33,359
Speaker 2: Were three games into the championship season, one horrendous lost,

1082
00:54:33,400 --> 00:54:37,239
Speaker 2: too well fought draws, and I'm pretty concerned, concerned that

1083
00:54:37,360 --> 00:54:39,480
Speaker 2: when the bigger boys arrive, they're going to do a

1084
00:54:39,600 --> 00:54:41,719
Speaker 2: number on us. And although many people in the fan

1085
00:54:41,800 --> 00:54:44,719
Speaker 2: base probably won't agree. Stoke are one of the bigger boys.

1086
00:54:44,760 --> 00:54:48,279
Speaker 2: They took argo as head coach last season, Steven Schumacher.

1087
00:54:48,600 --> 00:54:50,799
Speaker 2: They spend the kind of money that Argyle can only

1088
00:54:50,920 --> 00:54:54,040
Speaker 2: dream of spending, and going off performances, Stoke have been

1089
00:54:54,120 --> 00:54:56,080
Speaker 2: hit and miss too this season, just like our goal.

1090
00:54:56,400 --> 00:54:58,719
Speaker 2: They dispatch a young middles team five Neil and the

1091
00:54:58,800 --> 00:55:02,720
Speaker 2: cup impressive. That school one might flatter them, but plenty

1092
00:55:02,760 --> 00:55:07,880
Speaker 2: of counter attacking opportunities, swift playing, transition, trumpforted football, everything

1093
00:55:07,960 --> 00:55:11,040
Speaker 2: Schumacher stands for and everything that should hurt our goal

1094
00:55:11,160 --> 00:55:13,920
Speaker 2: on the weekend if it rears its head. So I've

1095
00:55:14,040 --> 00:55:17,440
Speaker 2: just seen reports before coming onto the podcast that and

1096
00:55:17,640 --> 00:55:21,759
Speaker 2: a tweet from Fabrizio Romano that Burnley have bid for

1097
00:55:21,920 --> 00:55:24,440
Speaker 2: Morgan Whittaker, probably our girl's best player.

1098
00:55:25,120 --> 00:55:26,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, to be.

1099
00:55:26,120 --> 00:55:29,560
Speaker 2: Honest, I've been resigned to it all summer. I always

1100
00:55:29,600 --> 00:55:31,920
Speaker 2: thought he'd leave in the window, but it's the twenty

1101
00:55:32,000 --> 00:55:35,640
Speaker 2: eighth of August, so if he goes now or in

1102
00:55:35,719 --> 00:55:38,640
Speaker 2: the coming days, then it's just it's a nightmare, isn't it.

1103
00:55:38,760 --> 00:55:41,720
Speaker 2: And it happens every chance of window to multiple clubs.

1104
00:55:42,080 --> 00:55:45,360
Speaker 2: We're going to struggle to get reinforcements in and definitely

1105
00:55:45,440 --> 00:55:47,680
Speaker 2: going to struggle to get someone in of his quality.

1106
00:55:47,760 --> 00:55:50,759
Speaker 2: I don't think it will happen basically, So for this

1107
00:55:50,880 --> 00:55:54,719
Speaker 2: game on the weekend, we might be without our best player.

1108
00:55:56,400 --> 00:55:57,440
Speaker 4: And taking all that into.

1109
00:55:57,320 --> 00:56:02,879
Speaker 2: Consideration, and despite slight upticking performance and results from our

1110
00:56:02,920 --> 00:56:06,719
Speaker 2: go I think Stoke with the half draw on our side,

1111
00:56:07,480 --> 00:56:10,120
Speaker 2: half get half your state back if it ends in

1112
00:56:10,200 --> 00:56:12,200
Speaker 2: a draw. I think that's probably the way to go

1113
00:56:12,280 --> 00:56:13,480
Speaker 2: in the Championship this weekend.

1114
00:56:13,880 --> 00:56:16,799
Speaker 5: All right, it only took you three weeks to bet

1115
00:56:16,840 --> 00:56:20,280
Speaker 5: against your team here in the show, so welcome aboard.

1116
00:56:21,120 --> 00:56:24,399
Speaker 5: All right, I'm underdog now. Like I said, this one's

1117
00:56:24,440 --> 00:56:25,920
Speaker 5: going to pop out at one hundred and twenty five

1118
00:56:25,920 --> 00:56:27,320
Speaker 5: to one. Bja, you can get us started.

1119
00:56:27,840 --> 00:56:31,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's go Crystal Palace four to one against Chelsea.

1120
00:56:31,719 --> 00:56:34,279
Speaker 1: Already spoke about them earlier. But Crystal Palace can cause

1121
00:56:34,280 --> 00:56:34,600
Speaker 1: a lot.

1122
00:56:34,520 --> 00:56:36,560
Speaker 3: Of problems to Chelsea that Wolves really couldn't.

1123
00:56:36,640 --> 00:56:36,759
Speaker 2: You know.

1124
00:56:36,920 --> 00:56:39,200
Speaker 3: Wolves is not a good team of building on the back.

1125
00:56:39,239 --> 00:56:41,680
Speaker 3: So Chelsea's Manda Man high press really caused them a

1126
00:56:41,680 --> 00:56:43,640
Speaker 3: lot of problems, forced them into a lot of long balls.

1127
00:56:44,080 --> 00:56:46,919
Speaker 3: But Crystal Palace is very good as a build up team.

1128
00:56:47,000 --> 00:56:49,160
Speaker 3: Under Glasser, they'll be able to play through the middle

1129
00:56:49,200 --> 00:56:51,799
Speaker 3: of the pitch where Wolves couldn't. They're also getting check

1130
00:56:51,840 --> 00:56:54,640
Speaker 3: to coore Back, who two years ago had one hundred

1131
00:56:54,640 --> 00:56:57,640
Speaker 3: and thirty tackles plus interceptions, which was sixth most in

1132
00:56:57,680 --> 00:56:59,719
Speaker 3: the Premier League. He'll allow Adam Morton to play a

1133
00:56:59,800 --> 00:57:03,239
Speaker 3: more advanced role. And it's really just an inflated price

1134
00:57:03,320 --> 00:57:05,800
Speaker 3: on Chelsea, who just scored six goals against Wolves, but

1135
00:57:05,960 --> 00:57:09,439
Speaker 3: those six goals only had an x total xt rating

1136
00:57:09,480 --> 00:57:11,279
Speaker 3: of point seven, so it was a lot of low

1137
00:57:11,400 --> 00:57:14,400
Speaker 3: quality chances that Chelsea scored. So I think we're getting

1138
00:57:14,840 --> 00:57:17,560
Speaker 3: an inflated price here on Chelsea, which creates value on

1139
00:57:17,640 --> 00:57:18,280
Speaker 3: Crystal Palace.

1140
00:57:18,320 --> 00:57:19,320
Speaker 1: So I like them at four to one.

1141
00:57:20,960 --> 00:57:24,560
Speaker 5: Okay, the biggest underdog on the board at time recording

1142
00:57:24,640 --> 00:57:27,720
Speaker 5: is Brighton Alvion, despite the fact that they're two and

1143
00:57:27,840 --> 00:57:30,560
Speaker 5: oer and have looked really impressive to start the season,

1144
00:57:30,600 --> 00:57:33,080
Speaker 5: and we know that the team has plenty of upside. Problemise,

1145
00:57:33,080 --> 00:57:36,280
Speaker 5: they're playing at Arsenal, so that's why the price is

1146
00:57:36,320 --> 00:57:39,080
Speaker 5: where it is. But I'm gonna do it. I think

1147
00:57:39,160 --> 00:57:40,840
Speaker 5: seven to one is a really good price. A lot

1148
00:57:40,880 --> 00:57:42,280
Speaker 5: of times when we get to the section of the

1149
00:57:42,360 --> 00:57:44,600
Speaker 5: show I talk about betting against the team when they're

1150
00:57:44,600 --> 00:57:46,800
Speaker 5: a big favorite. This time I'm betting on one. I

1151
00:57:46,880 --> 00:57:48,640
Speaker 5: can see that Arsenal is really good, one of the

1152
00:57:48,640 --> 00:57:51,040
Speaker 5: best teams in Europe, perhaps the second best team in

1153
00:57:51,120 --> 00:57:55,360
Speaker 5: the continent. But Brighton is really good too, and I

1154
00:57:55,480 --> 00:57:57,840
Speaker 5: think that the ceiling is high. I'm all in, back,

1155
00:57:57,960 --> 00:58:00,000
Speaker 5: all in on this Seagulls team. I think that they'll

1156
00:58:00,040 --> 00:58:03,520
Speaker 5: because at least one of these major upsets this season.

1157
00:58:03,600 --> 00:58:07,320
Speaker 5: So why not get started here in August against Arsenal, Sam,

1158
00:58:07,400 --> 00:58:07,920
Speaker 5: what do you get?

1159
00:58:08,880 --> 00:58:11,520
Speaker 2: Ipswich plus two hundred and I have no data to

1160
00:58:11,600 --> 00:58:15,120
Speaker 2: back this up. You cannot quantify the effect a newly

1161
00:58:15,200 --> 00:58:17,600
Speaker 2: promoted crowd will give you as a percentage you can't

1162
00:58:17,600 --> 00:58:20,560
Speaker 2: put down on a spreadsheet. The enthusiasm behind a newly

1163
00:58:20,640 --> 00:58:24,040
Speaker 2: promoted players performance and want to prove themselves in the

1164
00:58:24,120 --> 00:58:26,120
Speaker 2: Premier League. So this is from the gut I suppose,

1165
00:58:26,200 --> 00:58:30,000
Speaker 2: which the data nerds will absolutely hate. But I think

1166
00:58:30,280 --> 00:58:33,040
Speaker 2: Ipswich can spring a surprise here. They can cause this

1167
00:58:33,160 --> 00:58:36,160
Speaker 2: fulla team real problems. Not only did they score away

1168
00:58:36,200 --> 00:58:39,000
Speaker 2: against City, which is no mean feat obviously, but they

1169
00:58:39,040 --> 00:58:41,960
Speaker 2: were the better team at home against Liverpool for the

1170
00:58:42,080 --> 00:58:45,520
Speaker 2: first forty five minutes. They pressed well and they showed

1171
00:58:45,600 --> 00:58:48,560
Speaker 2: they provided a real threat in terms of carrying the

1172
00:58:48,640 --> 00:58:51,040
Speaker 2: ball up the field. So I think if you catch

1173
00:58:51,080 --> 00:58:52,880
Speaker 2: Fulham on and off day and you create a few

1174
00:58:52,960 --> 00:58:56,560
Speaker 2: go scoring opportunities, We've seen in their championship campaign last

1175
00:58:56,560 --> 00:58:59,920
Speaker 2: season that they can score goes at home. Ipswich average

1176
00:59:00,040 --> 00:59:02,560
Speaker 2: one point seventy nine x g per ninety at Portland

1177
00:59:02,640 --> 00:59:05,560
Speaker 2: Road in twenty twenty three twenty four. So for me,

1178
00:59:05,760 --> 00:59:08,280
Speaker 2: this has all the makings of a potential upset at

1179
00:59:08,320 --> 00:59:09,880
Speaker 2: plus two hundred wonderful.

1180
00:59:10,280 --> 00:59:12,960
Speaker 5: Okay, best bet for the Premier League this weekend, Sam,

1181
00:59:13,000 --> 00:59:14,600
Speaker 5: you can go first here best bet.

1182
00:59:14,760 --> 00:59:18,479
Speaker 2: I'm shocked at the price on Brentford minus one point thirty.

1183
00:59:18,560 --> 00:59:21,200
Speaker 2: I see no real reason why they don't outscore this

1184
00:59:21,360 --> 00:59:24,520
Speaker 2: Southampton team who Russell Martin, as we said earlier, went

1185
00:59:24,560 --> 00:59:27,080
Speaker 2: on record after the game to say they just don't

1186
00:59:27,160 --> 00:59:30,160
Speaker 2: have the type of firepower that Nottingham Forrest does. And

1187
00:59:30,600 --> 00:59:33,600
Speaker 2: it'll be exactly the same here. So nothing changes away

1188
00:59:33,640 --> 00:59:37,680
Speaker 2: from home Brentford without ivan TONI probably, but with Mbemo

1189
00:59:37,920 --> 00:59:41,040
Speaker 2: visus shady to name just three if the home side

1190
00:59:41,120 --> 00:59:44,040
Speaker 2: gets two goals, then that may well be enough, as

1191
00:59:44,160 --> 00:59:47,520
Speaker 2: Southampton rely on the likes of Armstrong and Ben Brereton

1192
00:59:47,560 --> 00:59:50,800
Speaker 2: Diaz to start banging goes at this level, something which

1193
00:59:51,120 --> 00:59:53,000
Speaker 2: might not come so frequently this season.

1194
00:59:54,400 --> 00:59:57,240
Speaker 5: Last week my best bet was Brighton against Manchester United.

1195
00:59:57,280 --> 00:59:59,960
Speaker 5: This week I'm going with Manchester United on the moneylightly

1196
01:00:00,000 --> 01:00:03,040
Speaker 5: against Liverpool. Betting is a fickle beast. I think that

1197
01:00:03,120 --> 01:00:05,240
Speaker 5: this United team, if they set up the way that

1198
01:00:05,720 --> 01:00:08,200
Speaker 5: I'm imploring them to do, which is just sit back

1199
01:00:08,280 --> 01:00:10,280
Speaker 5: and relax, absorb as much pressure as you can and

1200
01:00:10,640 --> 01:00:13,520
Speaker 5: hit Liverpool on the transition, you they're live underdog here

1201
01:00:13,520 --> 01:00:15,880
Speaker 5: at home. I do think the market is a little

1202
01:00:16,200 --> 01:00:18,200
Speaker 5: carried away with the price on Liverpool as and odds

1203
01:00:18,240 --> 01:00:20,160
Speaker 5: on favorite at al Old Trafford. It's only been two

1204
01:00:20,240 --> 01:00:23,600
Speaker 5: matches under arna slot and they came against Ipswich and

1205
01:00:23,760 --> 01:00:26,000
Speaker 5: Brentford at home, so it's not a surprise to see

1206
01:00:26,040 --> 01:00:28,560
Speaker 5: them sitting with an unblemish record. So they'll have to

1207
01:00:28,560 --> 01:00:30,920
Speaker 5: show me a little bit more before they justify this

1208
01:00:31,040 --> 01:00:33,400
Speaker 5: kind of price at United, who I know has their

1209
01:00:33,400 --> 01:00:36,520
Speaker 5: own flaws and I'll likely be betting against them next week,

1210
01:00:36,640 --> 01:00:39,000
Speaker 5: so but for now, it's United for me. Is my

1211
01:00:39,040 --> 01:00:39,440
Speaker 5: favorite bet.

1212
01:00:39,520 --> 01:00:39,760
Speaker 4: PJ.

1213
01:00:40,520 --> 01:00:42,120
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with the Castle.

1214
01:00:43,320 --> 01:00:46,400
Speaker 5: Bet section. Yeah, best bet, baby.

1215
01:00:47,760 --> 01:00:48,520
Speaker 1: You'll get used to it.

1216
01:00:48,640 --> 01:00:52,800
Speaker 3: Sam Micastle Tottenham over three and a half at minus

1217
01:00:52,840 --> 01:00:55,680
Speaker 3: one oh five. This should be a very fun back

1218
01:00:55,760 --> 01:00:57,640
Speaker 3: and forth time match with a lot of chances at

1219
01:00:57,680 --> 01:01:00,600
Speaker 3: both ends, specifically by how both these teams play so

1220
01:01:01,040 --> 01:01:03,040
Speaker 3: not Tottenham really wants to build out of the back

1221
01:01:03,080 --> 01:01:04,960
Speaker 3: in their two three five, but when they went to

1222
01:01:05,000 --> 01:01:09,160
Speaker 3: Saint James Park last year they caused Newcastle caused them

1223
01:01:09,200 --> 01:01:11,480
Speaker 3: all sorts of problems with their high press, especially in

1224
01:01:11,560 --> 01:01:14,600
Speaker 3: the first half, created a lot of easy transition opportunities.

1225
01:01:14,880 --> 01:01:18,480
Speaker 3: Newcastle for the match had seven counter attacking shots, which

1226
01:01:18,800 --> 01:01:20,760
Speaker 3: is the most tied for the most of any Premier

1227
01:01:20,840 --> 01:01:24,040
Speaker 3: League match last season. Tottenham is very vulnerable because they

1228
01:01:24,160 --> 01:01:26,680
Speaker 3: invert their fullbacks and possessions, so they leave Romero and

1229
01:01:26,760 --> 01:01:30,280
Speaker 3: Van devent On islands. Anthony Gordon Eshak should have great

1230
01:01:30,400 --> 01:01:32,080
Speaker 3: days when they get two B two or one B

1231
01:01:32,200 --> 01:01:35,400
Speaker 3: one type situations, just like they did in that previous meeting.

1232
01:01:35,680 --> 01:01:38,120
Speaker 3: And if Newcastle decides to press high, well that's going

1233
01:01:38,200 --> 01:01:40,640
Speaker 3: to create a lot of transition to opportunities. If Tottenham

1234
01:01:40,680 --> 01:01:42,600
Speaker 3: is able to build through their pressure. But either way

1235
01:01:43,040 --> 01:01:45,680
Speaker 3: it creates a very fun back and forth type match

1236
01:01:45,720 --> 01:01:48,400
Speaker 3: between the two teams that are very comfortable playing in

1237
01:01:48,480 --> 01:01:51,040
Speaker 3: that high event type style. So I like the value

1238
01:01:51,080 --> 01:01:52,760
Speaker 3: on over three and a half of minus two o five.

1239
01:01:53,160 --> 01:01:56,680
Speaker 5: All right, that wraps up this episode of Wonder Girl.

1240
01:01:56,920 --> 01:01:59,680
Speaker 5: Thank you for listening and rating, reviewing, subscribing. Thank you

1241
01:01:59,720 --> 01:02:02,120
Speaker 5: to us sponsors BET three sixty five. Thank you to

1242
01:02:02,240 --> 01:02:05,560
Speaker 5: our producers Noah Dave Matt on the back end, We

1243
01:02:05,560 --> 01:02:07,120
Speaker 5: will see you again in a couple of weeks. Enjoy

1244
01:02:07,200 --> 01:02:11,040
Speaker 5: the soccer this weekend, enjoy the international break, best of

1245
01:02:11,080 --> 01:02:11,840
Speaker 5: luck with all your bets.

1246
01:02:19,080 --> 01:02:22,480
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1247
01:02:22,920 --> 01:02:25,720
Speaker 3: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1248
01:02:26,040 --> 01:02:28,680
Speaker 3: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1249
01:02:28,760 --> 01:02:29,520
Speaker 3: hundred gambler