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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.

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Speaker 2: Good morning.

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Speaker 3: I'm Nathan Hager and I'm John Tucker. Here are these

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Speaker 3: stories we're following today.

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Speaker 4: John, the gain in futures and bond yields comes as

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Speaker 4: we await this morning's jobs report. The median estimate of

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Speaker 4: economists surveyed by Bloomberg is for a gain of two

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Speaker 4: hundred and fourteen thousand jobs and month of March. Let's

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Speaker 4: get a preview now from Bloomberg's Michael McKee.

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Speaker 1: There will be three numbers to watch in today's employment report. First,

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Speaker 1: the number of jobs created. Gains have average two hundred

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Speaker 1: and thirty seven thousand a month for the past year

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Speaker 1: two hundred and forty four thousand a month for the

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Speaker 1: past three months. Anything significantly below that may signal the

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Speaker 1: labor market is finally weakening. FED officials have forecast unemployment

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Speaker 1: would rise over four percent for months now, but so

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Speaker 1: far that's not happened, another sign of labor market strength. Finally,

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Speaker 1: wage inflation itself matters. FED officials would like to see

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Speaker 1: wages increasing no more than three and a half percent

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Speaker 1: a month. Michael McKee, Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 3: All right, thanks Mike, and as we wait the John support.

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Speaker 3: One FED official says interest rate cuts may not be

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Speaker 3: needed this year, especially if the economy remains robust. Here's

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Speaker 3: Minneapolis Fed Reserve President Neil kush Curry.

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Speaker 5: Wouldn't say they're off the table, but they're also not

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Speaker 5: a likely scenario given what we know right now. If

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Speaker 5: we continue to see strong job growth, if we continue

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Speaker 5: to see strong consumer spending and strong GDP growth, then

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Speaker 5: that raises a question in my mind, well, why would

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Speaker 5: we cut rage?

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Speaker 3: Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neil kush Curry does not vote

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Speaker 3: on policy this year, and.

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Speaker 4: Neither does the chief US economist at Morgan Stanley John

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Speaker 4: but she expects multiple cuts this year. We cut up

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Speaker 4: with Ellen Zenner at a conference in Italy this morning.

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Speaker 6: We expect four cuts.

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Speaker 7: We actually expect them to speed up cuts in the

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Speaker 7: fourth quarter of the year because we have inflation coming

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Speaker 7: down faster at that point and the FED but I

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Speaker 7: don't think that the timing of when central banks globally

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Speaker 7: are cutting is really going to be an issue.

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Speaker 4: Morgan Stanley chief US economist Ellen Zetner says she expects

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Speaker 4: the first cut in.

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Speaker 3: June and heading to Asia. Janet Yellen has kicked off

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Speaker 3: her latest visit to China, calling out the country's government

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Speaker 3: for its quote unfair treatment of US firms. However, delivering

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Speaker 3: prepared remarks at an event in the southern city of Guangzhou,

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Speaker 3: Yellen had this to say on the matter of protectionism.

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Speaker 8: The President and I really reject the idea that we

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Speaker 8: should decouple our economy from China's. Rather, we're seeking a

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Speaker 8: healthy economic relationship, but importantly on a level playing field

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Speaker 8: that can benefit both sides.

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Speaker 3: Yellen's trip comes after President Biden at Chinese leader Shijinping

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Speaker 3: held their first call in five months on Tuesday.

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Speaker 4: I meanwhile, John Argentina's president Javier Malay, has told Bloomberg

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Speaker 4: he won't change existing trade and financial ties his country

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Speaker 4: has with China. It is a marked change in tone

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Speaker 4: for the libertarian leader, who is previously like in Beijing

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Speaker 4: to an assassin. Bloomberg News editor in chief John Micklethwaite

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Speaker 4: asked Malay if he still stood by those comments.

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Speaker 9: And as for the Chinese government, what we've always said

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Speaker 9: is that we are libertarians, and if people want to

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Speaker 9: do business with China, they can carry on business as usual.

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Speaker 9: What I said was that I wouldn't be aligned with communists.

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Speaker 4: And President Willay added he has no intention of touching

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Speaker 4: the eighteen billion dollar currency swap between Argentina and China.

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Speaker 4: China is the biggest source of foreign reserves for the

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Speaker 4: beleaguered Central Bank in Buenos Aires.

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Speaker 3: And now to the latest from the Middle East. Israeli

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Speaker 3: Prime Minister ben Ubinetanya, whose office is promising to prevent

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Speaker 3: a humanitarian crisis in Gaza. That's after a half hour

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Speaker 3: phone call with President Biden following the attack that killed

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Speaker 3: seven aid workers this week. The White House National Security

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Speaker 3: spokesman John Kirby says US support for Israel's or with

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Speaker 3: Hamas will depend on Israel taking new steps to protect civilians.

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Speaker 10: If we don't see changes from their side, they'll have

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Speaker 10: to be changes from our side, but I won't preview

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Speaker 10: what that could look like.

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Speaker 3: White House spokesman John Kirby says the call between Biden

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Speaker 3: and Nathan Yahoo was direct and business like. Nett Yahoo's

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Speaker 3: office is Israel will allow temporary aid deliveries through two checkpoints,

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Speaker 3: and more Jordanian aid could flow through a third, crossing.

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Speaker 4: Well Middle East tensions. John lifted oil above ninety one

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Speaker 4: dollars a barrel earlier this morning. In fact, crud's risen

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Speaker 4: for four straight days and is trading at its highest

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Speaker 4: level since October. Checking Brent right now, it's a little

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Speaker 4: change to the upside at ninety dollars seventy one cents

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Speaker 4: per barrel. West Texas Intermediate is down a tenth of

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Speaker 4: one percent at eighty six dollars forty seven cents.

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Speaker 3: And in Europe, the oil giant Shell predicting weaker first

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Speaker 3: quarter results. Let's go to London now and get the

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Speaker 3: latest with Tiwa out of Bayou.

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Speaker 11: Good morning, Tiwa, Good morning. Join Nathan so Yes.

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Speaker 12: The London based Anti Giants show did provide an update

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Speaker 12: to the market this morning, and the big story was

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Speaker 12: what's happened to their earnings from gas trading. So they

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Speaker 12: did admit that those earnings for the first quarter have dropped,

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Speaker 12: but shall are also keen to point out that they

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Speaker 12: are still high by historical standards. So the Shell division

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Speaker 12: that does buy and sell natural gas has proved to

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Speaker 12: be quite a major money maker since the Russian invasion

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Speaker 12: of Ukraine increased volatility, and that profitability dropped in the

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Speaker 12: first three months of the year, but that's after what

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Speaker 12: Shell is describing as an exceptional fourth quarter of twenty

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Speaker 12: twenty three. SHALL will publish its full first quarter earnings

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Speaker 12: on May the second in London, to what ated BYO

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Speaker 12: Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 3: All right, thanks too and checking sharers of SHALL Little

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Speaker 3: Change this morning and time out for a look at

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Speaker 3: some of the other stories making news in New York

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Speaker 3: and around the world. We're joined by Bloombergs and Michael Barr.

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Speaker 13: Thank you very much. John Donald Trump suffered two legal

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Speaker 13: setbacks yesterday. Bloomberg's Amy Morris begins with a ling from

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Speaker 13: a Georgia judge on the former president's election interference case.

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Speaker 14: Folding County Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee denied Donald Trump's

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Speaker 14: request to dismiss his case on the grounds that it

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Speaker 14: violated his free speech rights. Judge McAfee says alleged comments

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Speaker 14: by former President Trump are not protected by the First Amendment,

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Speaker 14: saying that they were made quote in furtherance of criminal activity.

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Speaker 14: And just a couple of hours later, in Florida, Federal

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Speaker 14: Court Judge Isiland Cannon rejected Donald Trump's bid to drop

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Speaker 14: charges related to his alleged mishandling of classified documents after

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Speaker 14: he left the White House. Both court cases will proceed

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Speaker 14: on schedule in Washington. Amy Morris Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 13: We've learned Wednesdays nor'easter turned deadly in New York. More

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Speaker 13: than seven one hundred thousand homes and businesses lost power

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Speaker 13: across nearly a dozen states. In the Bronx, crews were

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Speaker 13: clearing hundreds of trees and limbs that came down around

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Speaker 13: New York City. North of the city, in armank the

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Speaker 13: wife of a Yankees executive was killed when her was

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Speaker 13: crushed by a falling tree. The Yankees released a statement

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Speaker 13: sending their condolences to the family of fifty year old

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Speaker 13: Catherine Tucciani. Rescued teams are searching for a family of

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Speaker 13: five feared trapped in a rockslide following Taiwan's biggest earthquake

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Speaker 13: in twenty five years. The quake Wednesday left at least

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Speaker 13: now twelve dead. In the city of Hulane, cruise were

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Speaker 13: working to demolish a five story building that was left

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Speaker 13: leaning at a severe angle. The quake damaged scores of

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Speaker 13: buildings around the island and left more than a thousand

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Speaker 13: people injured. President Biden heads to Baltimore today to view

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Speaker 13: the site of the March twenty six bridge collapse that

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Speaker 13: killed six construction workers and shut down the Port of Baltimore.

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Speaker 13: White House Press Secretary Karine Jean Vierre says Biden will

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Speaker 13: be briefed about efforts to remove the wreckage, reopen the channel,

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Speaker 13: and Baltimore's recovery.

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Speaker 9: As the President said within hours of the collapse, this

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Speaker 9: administration will be with.

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Speaker 11: The people of Baltimore every step of the way.

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Speaker 13: White House spoke person Green Jean Pierre says the President

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Speaker 13: also will meet with the families of the construction workers

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Speaker 13: who were fixing potholes on the Francis Scott Key Bridge

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Speaker 13: when the cargo vessel lost power and slammed into it.

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Speaker 13: Global News twenty four hours a day and whenever you

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Speaker 13: want it with Bloomberg News Now. Hi, Michael Barrn, This

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Speaker 13: is Bloomberg John, Michael, thank you.

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Speaker 3: It's coming up on five ten of Wall Street Time

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Speaker 3: down for the Bloomberg Sports update. For that, we bring

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Speaker 3: it in John Steshower.

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Speaker 15: Thanks John.

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Speaker 16: To day began for the Knicks with an update on

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Speaker 16: the Julius Randall shoulder injury. Not good news, but not

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Speaker 16: unexpected the way things had been trending. Randall's season is

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Speaker 16: over neath surgery. The injury took place back on January

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Speaker 16: twenty seventh. Of the hope was that he would return,

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Speaker 16: but his doctors have recently warned him a further damage

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Speaker 16: if he did that. Nick then hosted the Kings, trailed

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Speaker 16: by fifteen after the first quarter. Dominated after that, they

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Speaker 16: beat Sacramento one twenty to one oh nine to end

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Speaker 16: the three game, losing three Jalens runs and scored thirty

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Speaker 16: five on the ice. Islanders continue their push to make

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Speaker 16: the playoffs or two win of Columbus Bruins won four

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Speaker 16: to one at Carolina Capitol's lost four to one to

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Speaker 16: Pittsburgh College Basketball. Seaton Hall won the NIT in dramatic fashion,

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Speaker 16: finished the game on a nine to nothing run to

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Speaker 16: top Indiana State seventy nine seventy seven, first time the

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Speaker 16: Pirates have won the NIT since nineteen fifty three. Now

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Speaker 16: it's the NCAA Final Four, with the women playing to

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Speaker 16: that in Cleveland. Unbeaten South Carolina takes it on NC State,

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Speaker 16: followed by Caitlin Clark and Iowa against perennial power Yukon

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Speaker 16: one way or the other. Clark's brilliant career is about

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Speaker 16: to end. She was asked what she should be remembered for.

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Speaker 10: Remember, you know how we made them feel, how we

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Speaker 10: broad joyed their lives, how we gave their family something

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Speaker 10: to scream about on the TV on the weekends. You know,

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Speaker 10: I think, I hope those are the biggest things that

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Speaker 10: people remember. I hope, you know, all the young boys

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Speaker 10: and girls remember the joy that we played with and

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Speaker 10: how we took ten seconds of our time to sign

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Speaker 10: their autograph.

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Speaker 16: Met Men's final four beginning tomorrow night in Phoenix in

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Speaker 16: the Bronx Today the Yankee home opener. They came off

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Speaker 16: a six and one season opening road tip. They'll start

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Speaker 16: Marcus Strouman against the Blue Jays Cityfield. Yes. Today, the

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Speaker 16: Mets finally at their first win. It came in the

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Speaker 16: nightcap to the doubleheader with Detroit. They lost the opener

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Speaker 16: six to three, but then one two to one with

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Speaker 16: two runs in the bottom of the night. This will

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Speaker 16: be the A's last season in Oakland, then moving to

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Speaker 16: Las Vegas in twenty twenty eight, and it was announced

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Speaker 16: that the next three seasons they'll play in Sacramento. Josh

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Speaker 16: Dash that wear Bloomberg Sports John Nathan All right.

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Speaker 3: Thanks a lot, John, And ahead of the jobs report

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Speaker 3: this morning is and B Futures. They are up three

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Speaker 3: tenths of a percent.

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Speaker 15: Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM,

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Speaker 15: and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the

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Speaker 15: Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning.

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Speaker 4: I'm Nathan Hagar, and as we await that March jobs report,

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Speaker 4: we want to bring you an important conversation with Ellen Zenner,

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Speaker 4: the chief US economist at Morgan Stanley. She thinks the

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Speaker 4: Federal Reserve is on track to cut interest rights starting

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Speaker 4: in June. Speaking with Bloomberg's Lizzie Burden, ellen Zenner says

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Speaker 4: she believes the markets expectation of about three he cuts

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Speaker 4: this year is in line with the Fed's views.

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Speaker 7: So I think it's going to be more about inflation.

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Speaker 7: If the Fed were to cut as early as May,

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Speaker 7: I think the bar is very high for them to

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Speaker 7: go that soon, though, But I do still expect them

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Speaker 7: to be ready by June.

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Speaker 6: For the employment report.

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Speaker 7: You know, we're expecting another big number around two hundred

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Speaker 7: and forty five thousand, even if it comes in at

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Speaker 7: one hundred one hundred and fifty thousand. They'll say it's

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Speaker 7: just one print. We're going to look at the unemployment rate.

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Speaker 7: I think even if we get a very strong jobs number,

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Speaker 7: we're going to keep the unemployment rate higher at three

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Speaker 7: point nine percent. And that's because so many people are

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Speaker 7: coming into the labor market, and then you're still going

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Speaker 7: to get wage pressures that are coming off. So when

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Speaker 7: you talk about a Goldilock scenario, right, that's going to

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Speaker 7: be a report that says the economy is still strong,

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Speaker 7: but it's not something that gives a definitive signal to

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Speaker 7: the Fed that they need to cut very soon.

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Speaker 11: Here, well, Chap Powell agrees with you.

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Speaker 17: It's a bigger economy, not a tie to one thanks

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Speaker 17: to immigration. But you've put the neutral jobs rate of

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Speaker 17: growth at two hundred and sixty five thousand moons.

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Speaker 11: Why is Pole's estimate of one hundred thousand wrong?

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Speaker 7: So look, I had an estimate of one hundred thousand

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Speaker 7: just six months ago. Essentially, we've gotten new data, and

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Speaker 7: this is something that markets have to deal with, economists

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Speaker 7: have to deal with. We have gotten significantly upward revisions

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Speaker 7: to population growth in the US, and faster population growth

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Speaker 7: means faster economy. It means faster growth in the labor market,

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Speaker 7: and it also means that you're going to have a

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Speaker 7: higher what we call break even level for employment, the

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Speaker 7: amount of jobs you need to create in order to

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Speaker 7: keep the unemployment rates steady.

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Speaker 6: And so this is a supply side story.

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Speaker 7: That supply side story is something that Chairpal has been

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Speaker 7: focused on since later last year. Twenty twenty three was

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Speaker 7: all about improving supply chains, improving labor supply.

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Speaker 6: Twenty twenty four extends.

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Speaker 7: That labor supply improvement where the growth in the population

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Speaker 7: is just that strong.

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Speaker 6: And so this is a real supply side story that is.

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Speaker 7: Supporting growth in the economy without creating inflationary pressures.

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Speaker 17: I want to come back to where rates will go

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Speaker 17: in a moment, but just staying on immigration, Ellen, it's

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Speaker 17: going to be a key issue, of course in the

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Speaker 17: US election.

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Speaker 11: If you get Trump two point.

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Speaker 17: Zero, what sort of economic impact you're expecting.

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Speaker 7: So I do think that this puts the administration in

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Speaker 7: a sticky spot because according to our surveys households a list,

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Speaker 7: immigration is the second most concern, just behind inflation. Yet

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Speaker 7: from an economist, just objective lens on the economy. Faster

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Speaker 7: population growth drives faster growth in the economy, and so

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Speaker 7: it is a positive for the US economy. It's been

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Speaker 7: a positive for US job gains, it's been a positive

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Speaker 7: for US consumption. But immigration itself is a hot button

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Speaker 7: political issue, and so I think focusing on just the

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Speaker 7: economic benefits from it will be something that needs to

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Speaker 7: be separated on the campaign trail.

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Speaker 11: But then what's the flip side of that?

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Speaker 17: If you have less immigration, could inflation strike again?

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Speaker 6: Well?

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Speaker 7: I think that there is a question mark out there

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Speaker 7: as to how much do immigrants contribute to inflation in

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Speaker 7: the economy.

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Speaker 10: Now.

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Speaker 7: The US is very different than other economies where we

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Speaker 7: have low skilled labor coming in. They're helping fill jobs

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Speaker 7: that are the positions that are open where we need labor,

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Speaker 7: and they come in at low wage paying service sector

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Speaker 7: areas of the economy that help bring wage pressures down,

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Speaker 7: so that tends to not be inflationary in the US.

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Speaker 7: That is very unlike countries like our neighbor Canada, where

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Speaker 7: they have very high skilled immigration coming in. Thirty percent

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Speaker 7: of their labor market is unionized. Those are high skilled labor,

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Speaker 7: and there's a lot of household formation and a lot

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Speaker 7: of inflationary pressures that come from that, So the US

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Speaker 7: is quite different there. Now, that said, it's more of

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Speaker 7: an economic growth rather than inflation problem. If you we

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Speaker 7: were to have a shift in policy you have a

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Speaker 7: big drop off in immigration and suddenly you have a

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Speaker 7: very big slowdown in population growth, then that is more

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Speaker 7: of a growth narrative, dampening growth and dampening inflation.

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Speaker 6: So immigration is.

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Speaker 7: Neither here nor there's neither inflationary nor deflationary for the

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Speaker 7: immigration that we have today. But if we were to

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Speaker 7: suddenly turn that off, then you would have an impact

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Speaker 7: to growth and a gravitational pull on inflation as well.

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Speaker 11: If we can come.

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Speaker 17: Back to the Mona tree, you're in the beautiful Lake

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Speaker 17: Como area in Italy. If the ECB cots before the fad,

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Speaker 17: how much is how much divergence would be a problem.

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Speaker 6: I don't think that's a problem at all.

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Speaker 7: The FED is on a track to cut rates, and

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Speaker 7: not all on the FMC agree that rates will be

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Speaker 7: appropriate this year, but all but one believe that we

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Speaker 7: will cut rates this year in the US, and so

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Speaker 7: that market expectation of about three cuts this year I

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Speaker 7: think is in line with the Fed's view, and I

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Speaker 7: do think that that's in line with what the FED

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Speaker 7: thinks it will deliver.

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Speaker 6: We expect four cuts.

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Speaker 7: We actually expect them to speed up cuts in the

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Speaker 7: fourth quarter of the year because we have inflation coming

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Speaker 7: down faster at that point than the FED. But I

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Speaker 7: don't think that the timing of when central banks globally

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Speaker 7: are cutting is really going to be an issue for

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Speaker 7: the FED. Markets already have cuts priced in as an expectation.

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Speaker 17: Well, the last thing any central bank current in the

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Speaker 17: world wants to do is to reverse course.

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Speaker 11: Who do you think is most at risk of a

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Speaker 11: U turn?

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Speaker 6: Well, I think that.

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Speaker 7: You know the FED has communicated that it will cut,

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Speaker 7: it's likely to cut. Real rates are already quite restrictive,

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Speaker 7: and you don't want them to get further restrictive if

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Speaker 7: inflation continues to fall. So the risk there, of course

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Speaker 7: is inflation doesn't fall. If this immigration story provides so

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Speaker 7: much strength in the economy, it starts to become inflationary. Right,

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Speaker 7: then it's not necessarily it's reversing courseness sins from we

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Speaker 7: were set to cut and then we're not going to cut.

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Speaker 7: I think the bar is just too high to get

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Speaker 7: to a point where they're going to be willing to

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Speaker 7: start hiking again. But I think the strength of the

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Speaker 7: US economy really stands apart on the global stage at

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Speaker 7: this point, so there is there is that risk the

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Speaker 7: Cashcari pointed out that they don't cut at all, but

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Speaker 7: I don't see anything in the forward looking data that

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Speaker 7: suggests they should not stay on this cutting track.

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Speaker 4: And that is Morgan Stanley, Chief US economist Ellen Zenner,

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Speaker 4: speaking with Bloomberg's Lizzie Burden, head of the release of

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Speaker 4: the March non farm payrolls report, due out this morning

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Speaker 4: at eight thirty am Wall Street Time. Now, we want

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Speaker 4: to bring you more of Bloomberg's exclusive interview with the

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Speaker 4: President of Argentina, Javier Malay. He has been speaking with

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Speaker 4: our editor in chief John Micklthwaite on a wide range

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Speaker 4: of issues, in particular his country's relationship with China. President

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Speaker 4: Malay had promised to curb ties with Beijing if elected,

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Speaker 4: but Argentina does have deep financial links to Beijing, which

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Speaker 4: include being the biggest source of foreign reserves for Argentina's

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Speaker 4: beleaguered Central Bank. John Micklethwaite asked the Argentinian president if

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Speaker 4: he stood by comments last year in which he called

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Speaker 4: the Chinese government fascist.

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Speaker 18: Last year, you called the Chinese government an assassin. Now

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Speaker 18: you're in government, do you still see China that way?

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Speaker 9: As for the Chinese government, what we've always said is

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Speaker 9: that we are libertarians, and if people want to do

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Speaker 9: business with China, they can carry on business as usual.

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Speaker 9: What I said was that I wouldn't be aligned with communists,

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Speaker 9: and that's precisely one of the things. Who did I

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Speaker 9: say I was going to align with the United States

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Speaker 9: and Israel? Do you have any doubt that that's my

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Speaker 9: alignment the United States and Israel.

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Speaker 18: No, but you have a very good example, very good

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Speaker 18: example at the moment. And I'll come back to Israel

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Speaker 18: in the United States later. But now, as you know,

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Speaker 18: in Argentina, the focus is on a Chinese space station

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Speaker 18: in Patagonia that your predecessor allowed to get built. The

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Speaker 18: US says that the space station has military purposes. Will

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Speaker 18: you close it down?

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Speaker 9: Well, the point is this, the negotiations are beginning to

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Speaker 9: ordit and inspect that because the Chinese say that is

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Speaker 9: not the case. So we will move towards a situation

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Speaker 9: we will be looking at that. So that is not

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Speaker 9: a problem.

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Speaker 18: Either is a factor in this the fact that you

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Speaker 18: have that eighteen billion dollar currency swap line with China,

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Speaker 18: which you do need. You need it for the reserves

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Speaker 18: at the central bank. It's a big portion. Does that

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Speaker 18: influence your thinking on China?

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Speaker 9: That situation has to do with an agreement that was

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Speaker 9: entered into and which has to do with the trade

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Speaker 9: exchanges between countries. I won't modify trade exchanges because I

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Speaker 9: think there are trade exchanges between privates, just as we

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Speaker 9: have a part in our central bank. They have, of

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Speaker 9: course their central bank counter. But I don't see a problem,

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Speaker 9: and honestly, the trade relations haven't changed, not a problem.

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Speaker 18: The problem would be if I was the Chinese government

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Speaker 18: tonight and you called me an assassin, I might be

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Speaker 18: less keen to renew the currency line.

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Speaker 1: The almost in gamely figure to.

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Speaker 9: Have trade relations change. They haven't, not one bit. So

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Speaker 9: that is actually counter factual. There's no truth than of Argentina.

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Speaker 4: Javier Malay speaking through an interpreter with Bloomberg News editor

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Speaker 4: in chief John mikeoath Waye. You can get much more

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Speaker 4: of their conversation. It's on today's Bloomberg Pigged Big Take.

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00:20:53,720 --> 00:20:56,000
Speaker 4: You can find that on the Bloomberg terminal, on the

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Speaker 4: Bloomberg Business App, and always on Bloomberg dot com.

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00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:04,320
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