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Speaker 1: Ye. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene

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Speaker 1: Jay Lee. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg. Russ

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Speaker 1: Coast Trick is with us now here in New York,

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Speaker 1: black Rock Global Allocation Team Portfolio Manager. How bad was it, Russ?

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Speaker 1: It was bad enough. It was a little slushy getting

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Speaker 1: out of the road this morning. We made it safe.

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Speaker 1: Fish tails on the car. You made it here safely.

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Speaker 1: I see that matters and funny one commuting this morning.

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Speaker 1: I hope you make it safely to whereever you won't

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Speaker 1: going gets well. John Tucker will keep you up to

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Speaker 1: speed on the weather through the week because it's going

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Speaker 1: to be a cult one. John did the little ones

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Speaker 1: of off today. Huh, Tom, they're so off? Okay, sledding

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Speaker 1: in Central Park. Tom's not happy about this. He walked

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Speaker 1: into the studio and sledding in Central Park. They're doing glossier.

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Speaker 1: They're spending three hours doing makeup. Yeah, we have the

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Speaker 1: Jean Charles Pellet is what we do. That's what's happening

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Speaker 1: with the mortgage vet bill that we have a great

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Speaker 1: margins merchants. Let's get to the news, guys. According to

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Speaker 1: two people familiar with the discussions, the U. S and

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Speaker 1: China closing in on a trade deal RUSS every Monday,

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Speaker 1: I feel like I read that headline. Is this market

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Speaker 1: becoming increasingly desensitized to these headlines because futures up a

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Speaker 1: handful of points, the Assie dollar barely rallying, Chinese currency

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Speaker 1: virtually unchanged on the session. Your thoughts, you know, this

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Speaker 1: may be the you know, the most recent example of

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Speaker 1: by the rumor, sell the news. I think at this

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Speaker 1: point everyone is discounted a deal. The outlines are broadly known,

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Speaker 1: so I don't think there's a lot of juice left

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Speaker 1: something on the fact that some type of trade deal

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Speaker 1: is going to be signed this month. Are you waiting

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Speaker 1: for the news or are you already selling the strength

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Speaker 1: we've been trimming? Uh, this has been an enormous rally.

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Speaker 1: You're about off of the Christmas Eve lows. You've seen

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Speaker 1: volatility decline for nine or ten weeks in a row.

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Speaker 1: That has never happened before. It's not that things are

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Speaker 1: not improving. The trade deal is important. Monetary policy in

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Speaker 1: the US has pivoted. But again everybody knows this, and

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Speaker 1: you've seen a very big rally predicated on those developments. Well,

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Speaker 1: we'll be through way you way you're trimming at the moment,

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Speaker 1: and how your regional buses shifting a little bit here,

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Speaker 1: So we've been trimming a little bit up in some

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Speaker 1: of our more cyclical names. Uh. Despite the rally of

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Speaker 1: the markets, the fact is there's still a lot of

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Speaker 1: evidence that the global economy is decelerating. Now, to be clear,

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Speaker 1: we're not expecting an imminent recession, but we are concerned

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Speaker 1: about companies where their revenue, their business models depending upon

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Speaker 1: the economy growing economy, and you're just not gonna get

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Speaker 1: as much of a tailwind from the global economies you

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Speaker 1: had in two thousand seventeen and two thousand eighteen. So

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Speaker 1: what does that mean for the effex market? Push that

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Speaker 1: through the FX market because so many people are struggling

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Speaker 1: to make a directional call on the U S dollar,

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Speaker 1: largely because we've had a range bound FX market for

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Speaker 1: the last several months. Well, the you know, the tough

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Speaker 1: thing is you should theoretically be seen a week er

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Speaker 1: dollar because the U S economy slowing, the feed is

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Speaker 1: arguably going to be taken a more devish stands than

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Speaker 1: you have expected three months ago. But everywhere else is

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Speaker 1: slowing as well, particularly Europe. So we're overweight the dollar. Uh,

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Speaker 1: we're over with the dollar, particularly against the euro. Not

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Speaker 1: because we're convinced you're gonna see a hawkish fed or

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Speaker 1: a particularly strong U. S. Economy, but because you're seeing

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Speaker 1: an even faster deceleration right now in Europe? Can you

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Speaker 1: buy blue chips here? I mean over the weekend? People

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Speaker 1: are recalibrating after you mentioned up and literally a cup

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Speaker 1: of coffee. Can you actually acquire shares this morning? Or

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Speaker 1: do you just have to wait for the opportunity on pullback?

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Speaker 1: I think you've gotta wait a little bit. You know.

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Speaker 1: Part of the challenges that a lot of the names

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Speaker 1: you would typically go to when you expect a slower

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Speaker 1: economy or the most expensive, in other words, the defensive names,

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Speaker 1: the lower of all names that people crowded into in December.

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Speaker 1: That's where you've seen many of the premium valuations. That's

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Speaker 1: another air we're cutting, not because we don't like the model,

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Speaker 1: we don't like the price. Have we solved the situation

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Speaker 1: with the Stokes versus bond story. Both of those asset

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Speaker 1: classes running together over the last several months, and many

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Speaker 1: people last which one would break looks like it was

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Speaker 1: the bond market. Last week it did a little bit,

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Speaker 1: but you know, to put in perspective, you've got the

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Speaker 1: tenure to seventy five. The yield is about ten twenty

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Speaker 1: bits above where it was in the lows in December.

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Speaker 1: You know, yield just haven't moved as much as people thought.

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Speaker 1: If you go back over two and a half years

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Speaker 1: to where yields were in late two thousand sixteen, they're

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Speaker 1: kind of in the same spot. I think what you're

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Speaker 1: seeing is a recognition the Fed is just going to

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Speaker 1: end its tightening cycle at an earlier level. The terminal

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Speaker 1: Fed funds rate is lower, and that's translated into the

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Speaker 1: long end of the curve. Well is in the word

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Speaker 1: break quite loosely, admittedly, But last week was pretty interesting

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Speaker 1: to me because last week we had a series of

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Speaker 1: downside surprises on global ecode data. If you actually look

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Speaker 1: at the City Global Economic Surprise Index that rolled over

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Speaker 1: last week, Yet treasury yields, bund yields started to grind higher.

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Speaker 1: So the question I was left asking through the weekend

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Speaker 1: is whether the slow down story is largely exhausted itself

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Speaker 1: in core government bond markets. Now, I think that's a

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Speaker 1: it's a fair point, and to me, it's still there's

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Speaker 1: it's not just the sort of pick up and yields

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Speaker 1: as the divergence between stocks and bonds, because they were

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Speaker 1: telling you different things. Uh, And as you point out,

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Speaker 1: the economic data is still confirming the bond market narrative

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Speaker 1: from January and February that you're not going to get

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Speaker 1: a re acceleration and growth. Then how do you respond

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Speaker 1: to the idea that bonds always leads stocks. There's a

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Speaker 1: there's a among good equity strategist, there's a humbling reality

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Speaker 1: that the bond market often indicates things earlier than equities.

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Speaker 1: Do you buy that idea? I think there's some truth

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Speaker 1: in it. And again to the fact that you still

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Speaker 1: haven't seen a very big pick up in yields, the

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Speaker 1: fact that real yields are still will below where they

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Speaker 1: work the peak last year tells me the bond market

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Speaker 1: is saying, look, we're just not going to get the

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Speaker 1: synchronized global growth we thought we would get in early

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Speaker 1: two thousand eighteen. Do you see that seven oh seven

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Speaker 1: thirteen am on a Monday and we're already talking the

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Speaker 1: really yield Friday's one pm. Thank you. Just you know

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Speaker 1: Russ went right there early to wrap it up with

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Speaker 1: buy gold. It's a cold coming from Russ. I did

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Speaker 1: not know that. Jeff Curry, do you have some gold

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Speaker 1: in the portfolio? The question is what are you protecting against.

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Speaker 1: If you're protecting against an aggressive FED, gold is not

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Speaker 1: the place to be. Our view is the FED is

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Speaker 1: not going to get that more aggressive used level world

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Speaker 1: with uncompensated geopolitical risk. You have an environment where I

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Speaker 1: think the dollar is probably in the trading range really

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Speaker 1: yield sorry I mentioned it again, are probably not going

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Speaker 1: much higher. That's a decent environment for gold roscosters. Thank

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Speaker 1: you so much. With black Rock uh he is of

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Speaker 1: course chief officer of the nominal yield at black Rock

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Speaker 1: as well. We get a stay called Liz Young. She

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Speaker 1: is doing senior investment strategy with b n y Melon

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Speaker 1: Investment Management and darkens the door this morning. Liz, the

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Speaker 1: smartest thing I heard at one was from the investment

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Speaker 1: strategist John Farrell of Bloomberg surveillance. Who said recalibrate in March.

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Speaker 1: We're here. How are you recalibrating after what we've lived

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Speaker 1: through October to February. It's it's a good question, and

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Speaker 1: it's a question that I think is on everybody's minds

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Speaker 1: that we went through the end of Q four and

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Speaker 1: probably overdid the fear quite a bit. We started Q

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Speaker 1: one and I think we've overdone this rally a little bit.

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Speaker 1: We would be happy with load of mid single it

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Speaker 1: by the end of the year. I'd be ecstatic with

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Speaker 1: eight percent by the end of the year, which means

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Speaker 1: that right now we're a little ahead of ourselves, and

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Speaker 1: we wouldn't be surprised to see some consolidation in March.

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Speaker 1: Reading through your nuts, lest what's interesting to me is

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Speaker 1: that you actually expect the economy to re accelerate here

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Speaker 1: in the United States at a Q one into the

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Speaker 1: back half. What we through the think in there, so

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Speaker 1: we do expect a little bit of a slowdown actually

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Speaker 1: right now in Q one, but then as the year continues,

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Speaker 1: you could see a pickup in growth. And what we

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Speaker 1: really talk about is is having a number of different

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Speaker 1: scenarios economically, and the central scenario is that the us

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Speaker 1: D couples from the rest of the world. And what

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Speaker 1: that means is, instead of it being a rip your

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Speaker 1: face off growth rally, it's going to be more of

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Speaker 1: we're the best house in a bad neighborhood, the cleanest

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Speaker 1: dirty shirt. However you want to look at that, and

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Speaker 1: it's really the fact that there's pressure around the globe

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Speaker 1: and not as much pressure here. So what's she baseline.

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Speaker 1: We've come off a year where we've had in and

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Speaker 1: around three percent GDP growth. What are you guys looking for?

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Speaker 1: We're looking for in the central scenario, in our base

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Speaker 1: case scenario two percent. If we're surprised to the upside,

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Speaker 1: which is looking like more and more of a possibility

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Speaker 1: two and a half percent. Some people might say that

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Speaker 1: might be enough to bring the FED back in if

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Speaker 1: we get some inflation bleeding higher. It's one in the

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Speaker 1: back half of this year. What's you feel on that list?

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Speaker 1: That's absolutely true. So in in the central, in the

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Speaker 1: base case, we still expect there to be one hike

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Speaker 1: this year because at some point summer fall, the federal

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Speaker 1: run out of reasons not to hike. If we surprise

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Speaker 1: to the upside and the big catalyst, there's the US consumer.

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Speaker 1: If the consumer comes in and really props us up,

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Speaker 1: they may have to hike twice. Okay, they may. I

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Speaker 1: get all the macro stuff. What are corporations doing? I mean,

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Speaker 1: what John and I saw for fourteen days is a

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Speaker 1: lot of restructuring, is a lot of forced things, a

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Speaker 1: lot of unforced maybe planned things. But what do you

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Speaker 1: people see company to company in strategy over to tactics

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Speaker 1: some companies. Can they adapt to this world going forward?

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Speaker 1: I hope they can, and what we always do, I

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Speaker 1: think we do, and I think we expect it to

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Speaker 1: happen faster than it actually does. So I actually read

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Speaker 1: something yesterday that some of the tax reform effects haven't

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Speaker 1: completely happened yet. We haven't even experienced all the positivity

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Speaker 1: from that. So maybe we see some CAPEX improvement this year.

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Speaker 1: The other thing that I think is helping corporations a

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Speaker 1: lot is we've all been waiting for wage growth to

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Speaker 1: come into play, and it hasn't really, so it hasn't

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Speaker 1: put as much pressure on their bottom line as we expect.

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Speaker 1: Can they cut costs as they've done for X number

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Speaker 1: of years? I mean, do they just cut costs going forward?

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Speaker 1: They can continue to try. At this point, it gets

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Speaker 1: it gets to a point where we're kind of squeezing

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Speaker 1: blood from stones though, So what we need to see

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Speaker 1: is that that top line, so the revenue growth stays steady,

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Speaker 1: which also has been promising. So if you looked at

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Speaker 1: what happens since October, earnings estimates came down, but revenue

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Speaker 1: estimates really didn't, which means that there hasn't been much

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Speaker 1: of a demand problem. Have we seen peat margins now? Lit?

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Speaker 1: Peak margin growth perhaps, but not peak margins not necessarily interesting?

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Speaker 1: And likewise with profits too, would that be a view

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Speaker 1: as well. Yes, so peak margins growth, preprofit growth does

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Speaker 1: not necessarily have to be peak markets. It does not.

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Speaker 1: So the growth numbers, the biggest growth numbers probably happened

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Speaker 1: in and what we're seeing in is a slowdown in growth.

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Speaker 1: But we call this the second derivative effect, So it's

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Speaker 1: just the rate of growth that's changed, but growth is

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Speaker 1: still continuing. So if the market is going to continue

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Speaker 1: bleeding high, some people might sit here and say, well, Liz,

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Speaker 1: I think this is all about the Fed. You think

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Speaker 1: the Fed's going to come back in. If the Fed's

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Speaker 1: going to come back in, I think this market is

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Speaker 1: going to reverse, What do you say to them, Liz?

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Speaker 1: The interesting part is that the market has been really

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Speaker 1: propped up by the FED since the end of December.

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Speaker 1: But the issue is that the market is seems to

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Speaker 1: have forgotten about all the other risks that are out there,

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Speaker 1: and it's pricing in a positive outcome on trade, it's

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Speaker 1: pricing in a positive outcome on Brexit, it's pricing in

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Speaker 1: a FED that stays on pause, and maybe even pricing

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Speaker 1: in less of an earnings drawback than we've seen. How

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Speaker 1: many people participated in the joy from December six? Mark

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Speaker 1: Connors was with some credit sweez and he was adamant,

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Speaker 1: how few people really enjoyed this lift? Do you agree

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Speaker 1: with that? I would agree with that. I tell our

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Speaker 1: clients all the time, it's really easy to go to

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Speaker 1: cash during fear, but it's a lot her to come back.

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Speaker 1: This is this is a massive c f A axiom.

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Speaker 1: This is wandering in level three where they just beat

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Speaker 1: you to death. Getting to cash is easy. It's the

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Speaker 1: other way. It's wildly asymmetric. So let me ask you

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Speaker 1: this place, how do you measure how much we've re

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Speaker 1: risked versus de risking? So we de risk a lot

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Speaker 1: through December, how do you know we haven't re risked

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Speaker 1: as much? What do you look for? I mean, one

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Speaker 1: of the things you can look for, you can obviously

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Speaker 1: look at flows. You can see where investors have put

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Speaker 1: their money. Have they put their money back into the

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Speaker 1: equity market or have they put their money into bonds?

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Speaker 1: And right now that's a little bit unclear. The other

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Speaker 1: thing that you can look at is how broad has

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Speaker 1: the rally been? So have other sectors participated in this rally?

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Speaker 1: And what we saw last year was tech let us

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Speaker 1: all the way up and tech let us all the

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Speaker 1: way down. This year, what we've seen is a little

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Speaker 1: bit more of a broad based rally where you have

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Speaker 1: things like industrials. What's your prediction forward? Do we stay

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Speaker 1: broad based to the banks finally catch up? Ross Coostrich

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Speaker 1: black Rock says no, in the banks. But is its

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Speaker 1: sector specific or as an all it's rising continuation. I

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Speaker 1: think it's going to be a lot more narrow of

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Speaker 1: a spread between value and growth this year, which ends

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Speaker 1: up being a bit more of a sector calls, So

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Speaker 1: things like industrial staples, financials should carry some of the market.

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Speaker 1: What I think we're not going to see is that

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Speaker 1: big rally and tech again. What's going to fuel financials

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Speaker 1: last hopefully a steepening yield curve. Hopefully, hopefully, what we

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Speaker 1: would like to see is the yield curve steepen and

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Speaker 1: increase their interest margins. What do you say to people

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Speaker 1: that have enjoyed two thousand nineteen, they're up eleven point

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Speaker 1: eight percent. The primal urge to cash in and sit

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Speaker 1: is ginormous, isn't it. Yeah? And you know what, it

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Speaker 1: wouldn't be a bad call. It wouldn't be a bad

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Speaker 1: call to take a little bit off the table and

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Speaker 1: in consolidate here because we do, like I said, expect

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Speaker 1: a little bit of a pullback. Maybe that happens in March,

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Speaker 1: maybe it happens sometimes before within a bull market. The

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Speaker 1: key attribute here is how many people listening to this

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Speaker 1: don't believe it's a ball market? True, that's true, and

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Speaker 1: we question that at the end of last year where

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Speaker 1: we went from October to December down nineteen point seven percent. Here,

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Speaker 1: you're going off the TV right now. You're not going

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Speaker 1: to get cricket talking to you. You won't get that,

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Speaker 1: don't you? Can? You see me and John and Trinidad

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Speaker 1: next January. I can do you want to come Lisie

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Speaker 1: do a cricket special. Why we do in cricket today

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Speaker 1: because it sells internationally to who it's huge? Okay, good

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Speaker 1: morning to Australia, Australia. This is based on his research.

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Speaker 1: This is based on two friends down in the security guard.

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Speaker 1: The Veronicas are in Brisbane and they listen to keep

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Speaker 1: rive your way into the building today. I've forgotten my

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Speaker 1: badge and Mr Jacobson, you need to get your badge

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Speaker 1: another few times you're not allowed in. I know that's

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Speaker 1: what happened last year the Wednesday before you got sent home. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I purposely forget it, like you know December. You can

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Speaker 1: go listen young one. Thank you management especially. I was

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Speaker 1: sitting at home and I put out a fourteen thread

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Speaker 1: tweet looking at the arch debate of MMT modern monetary theory,

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Speaker 1: which is essentially right now frame by Stephanie Kelton of

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Speaker 1: Stony Brook often writing for Bloomberg Opinion and Paul Krugman

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Speaker 1: uh an economist to some acclaim writing for The New

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Speaker 1: York Times. And it's a raging debate and I think

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Speaker 1: within my threat, I sort of let on where I

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Speaker 1: come down to the debate. But this is gonna be

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Speaker 1: an interesting conversation for Bloomberg surveillance going forward. We begin

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Speaker 1: strong with Liz McCormick, who's got a zillion years of

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Speaker 1: experience in the bond space and she has written fabulous piece.

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Speaker 1: Powell trashed MMT, but Wall Street sees room for us

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Speaker 1: to try it. You gotta be kidding me. Who on

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Speaker 1: Wall Street wants they have a legislative branch set up

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Speaker 1: fiscal policy to run interest rates? Well, the reality is

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Speaker 1: tom nobody. But where they say it's room to run,

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Speaker 1: it's like very smart people who have been in the

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Speaker 1: bond market longer than I saying the truth is, we

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Speaker 1: thought ten years ago, when all this you know, special

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Speaker 1: measures to get out of the crisis and all the

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Speaker 1: central bank easy, we we would have runaway inflation and

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Speaker 1: we don't. We have a ten year bonnio below three percent.

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Speaker 1: So what they're saying is, like Michael Shoe of Market Field, like,

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Speaker 1: if you tell me as an analyst, as a taxpayer,

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Speaker 1: I think MMT is horrible, But I have to say,

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Speaker 1: you know, look at the markets. You've got some time

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Speaker 1: to deal with this, you know, because rates are low

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Speaker 1: and that helps. And you know, surprisingly, it's almost like

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Speaker 1: everyone in the markets that I talked to had to say,

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Speaker 1: you know, you gotta admit that the market isn't backing up.

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Speaker 1: We don't have the bond vigilant these in the past

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Speaker 1: that we had, So that's what they're saying, which I

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Speaker 1: kind of can't disagree. A wide set of economists came out,

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Speaker 1: as Krugman was screaming eight years ago, saying the inflation

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Speaker 1: easts were wrong and that if we have a gradual

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Speaker 1: terminal value coming down, more tepid economic growth, population growth,

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Speaker 1: productivity growth, we would have a regime of lower rates

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Speaker 1: and everybody in the bond spaces benefited by that, to say,

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Speaker 1: the least price up yield down. Are the bond pros

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Speaker 1: like Michael schol, Bill Gross and others. Are they saying

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Speaker 1: due away with a FED? Or are they saying the

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Speaker 1: Fed's got time to work. Yeah, no, definitely not saying

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Speaker 1: do away with the FED. That they would align with

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Speaker 1: kind of what I would consider more conventional. We need

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Speaker 1: the FED, you know, the FED honestly with volk Or

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Speaker 1: broke inflation and that you know we've kept ever since.

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Speaker 1: So you know that that's a that's a kind of

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Speaker 1: a bearer. We don't want to see again inflation. But

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Speaker 1: what they're saying is, like I thought shoals comment who

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Speaker 1: were interesting that he said? He said to me, I

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Speaker 1: remember ten years ago when all this started post crisis.

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Speaker 1: I said, I was talking to clients in Switzerland and

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Speaker 1: they said, is the world gonna end? We're gonna have

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Speaker 1: runaway inflation, all this easing, and he's kind of calmed

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Speaker 1: people down, and we haven't. So I think they're just saying,

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Speaker 1: you might have some room to go here. But I think,

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Speaker 1: like if you look at my story, Gary Pollock was saying,

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Speaker 1: this is eventually going to break. The question is when Tom,

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Speaker 1: like we've been saying Adam Japan for a while and

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Speaker 1: they haven't gotten inflation to be a problem. Maybe at

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Speaker 1: all times, systems break. The observation and your wonderful story, folks,

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Speaker 1: if you're just joining us, Eliza McCormick with us with

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Speaker 1: a bond view of this modern monetary theory debate MMT

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Speaker 1: Genus Smileo scheduled to be with us a bit here

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Speaker 1: more in the economics. I'm gonna call it the debate

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Speaker 1: of two thousand nineteen within economics, but maybe maybe one

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Speaker 1: of legs. We'll see. But Liz, what Michael Show goes to,

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Speaker 1: which I went to, was the assumption of mm T

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Speaker 1: that the LED just slative branch can not surgically but

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Speaker 1: more technically manage fiscal policy. Do the bond proceed evidence

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Speaker 1: of that. Shoal basically says, no, yeah, no they don't.

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Speaker 1: And I think, like, if you listen to Power, which

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Speaker 1: I know you did last week, he said the same

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Speaker 1: thing kind of he put it back to Congress, and

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Speaker 1: that's not our job. You guys have to pick you know,

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Speaker 1: you know what. You know, we can't support what you want.

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Speaker 1: But the I don't want to. You know, I'm not

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Speaker 1: in the opinion. I'm just a reporter. But I will say,

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Speaker 1: like people like Shoal and others say, you know, whenever

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Speaker 1: the government has tried to pick a sector to support, yes,

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Speaker 1: it hasn't panned out very well. You know, um, so

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Speaker 1: that's not kind of history shows that's not the best

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Speaker 1: way to go. Folks will do what we've done for

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Speaker 1: years in Bloomberg on the economy and Bloomberg Surveillance. Will

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Speaker 1: get different opinions on this, and Liz, I'll be Blunt.

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Speaker 1: I want to talk to James K. Galbraith, who's been

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Speaker 1: a good friend of the program out of Texas, and

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Speaker 1: he is in supportive elements of MMT. But James K.

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Speaker 1: Gilbert a million years ago worked on the Jointing Konama

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Speaker 1: Committee where he lived the inability of legislators to actually

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Speaker 1: manage fiscal policy as well. And some of this is duration,

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Speaker 1: Like we're more of a shorter duration culture versus the

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Speaker 1: French with much longer duration solutions, aren't we right? Well exactly,

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Speaker 1: you know, Um, it depends on do you, like someone said,

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Speaker 1: you take your pain now or later, or do you

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Speaker 1: do you kind of let it ride and have it

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Speaker 1: be worse later, right? I mean, I think some people

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Speaker 1: argue even with the Fed, it's a little bit different,

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Speaker 1: but maybe the Fed should have everyone says they may

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Speaker 1: be capitulated as you know, Tom and made a pivot

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Speaker 1: to kind of and more neutral policy. Maybe we need

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Speaker 1: to take a little more pain and raise rates a

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Speaker 1: little more. So before we let you go give us

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Speaker 1: an update on CBO in the zoo of the news.

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Speaker 1: The last ten days, CBO came out, you know, and

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Speaker 1: they went they made the media around talking but you

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Speaker 1: follow the bond market, and the leaf of the unbiased

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Speaker 1: CBO is a plug in numbers. How are they doing

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Speaker 1: right now? Well, first of all, they have the deficit

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Speaker 1: reaching a trillion by chronically. Yes, and as you know,

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Speaker 1: like let's put whatever policy aside, whatever brand you know, Democrat, Republican.

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Speaker 1: We have a problem of entitlement spending, rising the interest

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Speaker 1: cost on our debt, no matter what policy. So that

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Speaker 1: in the backdrop is ongoing, worsening our deficit. That's you've

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Speaker 1: been going under Obama, continues under President Trump. And then

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Speaker 1: if you add more policies, you know, the tax cut

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Speaker 1: has added to that. So you know it is it,

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Speaker 1: like you said, a chronic problem. It's it's kind of hard.

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Speaker 1: I have young children and ones that are in their twenties.

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Speaker 1: Hard to tell them to balance their checkbook when America

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Speaker 1: is not doing such a good job, right, So I

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Speaker 1: think it's a problem. I don't know. I keep telling

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Speaker 1: them to spend less. It's not working yet, but there's

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Speaker 1: been my money mostly. I have one working that's make money,

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Speaker 1: so she's spending her own. You hit a sore point there,

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Speaker 1: Liz mccarman, Go away, Thank you so much. Doing bonds

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Speaker 1: and again this debate of MMT and we'll continue this discussion.

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Speaker 1: It will be a source for good conversation over the

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Speaker 1: coming with US. Now Mark Chandler joins us. We're thrilled

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Speaker 1: that Mr Chandler could be with us with Bannockburn on

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Speaker 1: foreign exchange. Mark. One of our themes today has been

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00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:43,479
Speaker 1: the dollar, and of course that comes off President Trump

428
00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:46,600
Speaker 1: going after Chairman Paul and strong dollar. Can a central

429
00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:49,760
Speaker 1: bank manage the dollar? Can a central bank manage its

430
00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:52,760
Speaker 1: own currency? Maybe smaller countries might be able to a

431
00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:55,880
Speaker 1: country that currency is not internationally used as the US.

432
00:22:56,119 --> 00:22:57,840
Speaker 1: But I think they will take away is even though

433
00:22:57,880 --> 00:23:01,199
Speaker 1: President Trump talked down the dollar to his base, the

434
00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:04,280
Speaker 1: market had a brief reaction towards it, and now the

435
00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:07,800
Speaker 1: dollar is actually stronger against the Euro and Yenda on

436
00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:12,760
Speaker 1: the day I look Mark at you know, the dynamics

437
00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:15,200
Speaker 1: of the dollar. You have to partition it, as you've

438
00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:18,919
Speaker 1: been so good at across different parts. What part of

439
00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:23,480
Speaker 1: dollar dynamics interests you most? I'd say right now two things.

440
00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:26,159
Speaker 1: One is the divergence that's gonna become more apparent at

441
00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:28,200
Speaker 1: the end of the week. Is it's gonna happen, Tom

442
00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:31,200
Speaker 1: On Thursday, the e c D meets, and it's likely

443
00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:34,600
Speaker 1: to downgrade its growth and inflation forecast and hint at

444
00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:38,879
Speaker 1: least hint at a new loan facility for European banks.

445
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:42,879
Speaker 1: The following day, the US will report the jobs data,

446
00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:45,800
Speaker 1: and even though we shouldn't expect anything like the three

447
00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:49,240
Speaker 1: hundred thousand we saw in January of non farm payload group,

448
00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:53,000
Speaker 1: we should expect a small pick up in underlying earnings

449
00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:56,400
Speaker 1: growth average earnings growth to match a cyclical high about

450
00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:59,840
Speaker 1: three points four. This is a divergence I'm speaking about that.

451
00:23:59,880 --> 00:24:01,840
Speaker 1: I think it is going to continue to underpin the dollar.

452
00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:04,919
Speaker 1: So Mark, you mentioned that the dollar pulled back just

453
00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:07,439
Speaker 1: briefly on President Trump's comments, but then kind of resumed

454
00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:09,840
Speaker 1: its relative strength. And I guess that the question is,

455
00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:12,400
Speaker 1: you know, what can a dollar depreciate against them? We've

456
00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:16,280
Speaker 1: got weakness in China. We don't know about Europe. So

457
00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:18,120
Speaker 1: let's start with China first. Kind of what is your

458
00:24:18,160 --> 00:24:21,120
Speaker 1: sense of what is going on over there in terms

459
00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:24,720
Speaker 1: of eight economy and b just trade talks in general. Yes,

460
00:24:24,840 --> 00:24:28,800
Speaker 1: I think the how I say that everybody thinks what

461
00:24:28,840 --> 00:24:33,359
Speaker 1: a good idea have the Chinese agree cannot be appreciating

462
00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:37,080
Speaker 1: their currency, keeping it stable ostensibly against the dollar. I

463
00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:38,840
Speaker 1: think this is a trap. This is not good for

464
00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:42,199
Speaker 1: the United States, especially from Trump's point of view. This

465
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:45,879
Speaker 1: will prevent the US from depreciating the currency, depreciating the

466
00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:49,200
Speaker 1: dollar against China if we had them say stable, how

467
00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:51,120
Speaker 1: are we going to get a weaker currency from this?

468
00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:53,560
Speaker 1: A competitive advantage of a China. I think this is

469
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:56,199
Speaker 1: part of the broad problem that you bring up, is

470
00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:59,280
Speaker 1: it sure? I get the idea that this strong dollar

471
00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:01,440
Speaker 1: maybe a damp in US exports, but the best thing

472
00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:04,960
Speaker 1: for US exports is stronger growth. And what should happen

473
00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:07,320
Speaker 1: is that the weaker that the stronger dollar turned into

474
00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:10,919
Speaker 1: the weaker Euro, weaker Canadian dollar, weaker Australian dollar, and

475
00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:14,760
Speaker 1: that helped stimulate their own economies. And so exactly puzzle

476
00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:18,880
Speaker 1: tear What where where should the dollar not be strong against? Yeah,

477
00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:20,280
Speaker 1: that's that's kind of where I was getting to. So

478
00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:22,640
Speaker 1: that's going on the other side of the globe. I mean,

479
00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:25,399
Speaker 1: it seems like the UK and Europe there's continue to

480
00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:29,280
Speaker 1: stumble towards some type of Brexit resolution. Um kind of

481
00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:30,919
Speaker 1: how do you think that plays out? And what are

482
00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:33,600
Speaker 1: you seeing in the currencies at the moment. Yeah, so

483
00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:35,760
Speaker 1: you know, Sterling has had a great run. It's been

484
00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:39,679
Speaker 1: the strongest currency UH this year, and partly as people

485
00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:42,480
Speaker 1: have decided that the downside risks of that would be

486
00:25:42,520 --> 00:25:46,800
Speaker 1: a brexit with no agreement, that has been reduced in

487
00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:50,040
Speaker 1: the pre market perceptions, thinking that more likely that it

488
00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:53,119
Speaker 1: gets delayed rather than a hard exit. And so we're

489
00:25:53,119 --> 00:25:55,320
Speaker 1: still about a week away from being able to resolve this,

490
00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:57,639
Speaker 1: and so I think string could have a little bit

491
00:25:57,640 --> 00:26:00,400
Speaker 1: more upside room. But what does really highlight, I think,

492
00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:03,359
Speaker 1: is the underlying weakness in the Europe as a whole week.

493
00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:06,440
Speaker 1: Euro Zone we've talked about possibly eating from the ECB.

494
00:26:07,040 --> 00:26:09,600
Speaker 1: You've got not only drexit with the UK, but you've

495
00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:12,560
Speaker 1: also got problemed in eastern Central Europe, still not happy

496
00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:15,680
Speaker 1: with sort of Brussels policies, and so I think Europe

497
00:26:15,800 --> 00:26:20,080
Speaker 1: remains like our week. Sister, Mark Chandler, you're wonderful book.

498
00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:24,480
Speaker 1: Political Economy of Tomorrow used in astronomy bent of the

499
00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:28,280
Speaker 1: constellations out there that make the world go round. Are

500
00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:31,800
Speaker 1: we using the foreign exchange model of five years ago

501
00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:34,640
Speaker 1: or thirty years ago now? Or is there a new

502
00:26:34,680 --> 00:26:38,440
Speaker 1: regime that we're in that kind. That's a good question,

503
00:26:38,480 --> 00:26:40,360
Speaker 1: because I think that, you know, there was an agreement,

504
00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:42,720
Speaker 1: it seems, you know, after the high point of G

505
00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:46,520
Speaker 1: seven cooperation at the Plaza Hotel and the Louver agreement

506
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:50,200
Speaker 1: back in the back in the eighties early nineties, there

507
00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:53,920
Speaker 1: was a general agreement, like an arms control agreement. Let's

508
00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:57,000
Speaker 1: not let's major countrys agree not to use the currencies

509
00:26:57,520 --> 00:27:01,080
Speaker 1: as a arena of competition, to seek a beg of

510
00:27:01,080 --> 00:27:04,840
Speaker 1: that neighbor, to seek advantage. And Uh, I'm afraid that

511
00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:07,400
Speaker 1: there's been a partly because of the change would happen

512
00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:11,920
Speaker 1: in election in the US. Partly, Uh, the antagonism, the

513
00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:14,320
Speaker 1: driving with China. I think that we're on the verge

514
00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:16,840
Speaker 1: of perhaps breaking that. And I did not buy into

515
00:27:16,880 --> 00:27:20,200
Speaker 1: those currency wars that people said was the case when

516
00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:23,200
Speaker 1: the US was doing QWI. But the idea of reponizing

517
00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:25,600
Speaker 1: of it, having a U S president try to talk

518
00:27:25,640 --> 00:27:28,200
Speaker 1: down its own currency, I think we'd be very upset

519
00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:33,400
Speaker 1: of China or Japan or Germany. I did this. Yeah,

520
00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:36,440
Speaker 1: I think that the new Golden rule is uh. I

521
00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:38,800
Speaker 1: thought for a while, spending my career on Wall Street,

522
00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:40,680
Speaker 1: to the Golden rule, was he with the gold makes

523
00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:43,320
Speaker 1: two rules. But now it seems that the golden rulers

524
00:27:43,400 --> 00:27:45,600
Speaker 1: don't do as we say, don't do as we do,

525
00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:47,920
Speaker 1: do as we say. Mark Channer, thank you so much.

526
00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:52,440
Speaker 1: Bannockburn today Political Economy of Tomorrow, really thought provoking book

527
00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:55,800
Speaker 1: on sort of a broader view, I would say the

528
00:27:55,880 --> 00:28:13,480
Speaker 1: celestial view of foreign exchange. Uh, Tom, I am really

529
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:17,320
Speaker 1: excited for this next guest because the timing is absolutely perfect. Uh.

530
00:28:17,359 --> 00:28:19,640
Speaker 1: You know, twenty nineteen is going to be it's really

531
00:28:19,640 --> 00:28:22,320
Speaker 1: set up to be a huge year for tech I

532
00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:24,920
Speaker 1: p O s. And so we're really excited to have

533
00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:27,960
Speaker 1: our next guest. Haaren Seagram Uh is a n y

534
00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:32,040
Speaker 1: u h Stern Professor of finance. Uh Professor Sagram. Can

535
00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:35,679
Speaker 1: you thanks and welcome to the show. But boy, the

536
00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:38,480
Speaker 1: timing is just perfect. We had Lift file It's I

537
00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:41,480
Speaker 1: p O last week. Uber is and I'm sorry Lift

538
00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:43,360
Speaker 1: is about to start the road show. Uber is about

539
00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:45,000
Speaker 1: to go on the road at some point next couple

540
00:28:45,040 --> 00:28:47,840
Speaker 1: of months. We've got Airbnb, so a lot of tech

541
00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:51,400
Speaker 1: I p O s. Let's start with Lift. The valuation

542
00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:54,800
Speaker 1: that's being bandied about in the marketplace of billion dollars

543
00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:59,480
Speaker 1: that is a monster valuation of revenue, isn't it? Yes,

544
00:28:59,600 --> 00:29:03,320
Speaker 1: thanks of having me Tom and Paul. Um, it is

545
00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:06,560
Speaker 1: a monster evaluation. But if you think about the latest

546
00:29:06,600 --> 00:29:10,080
Speaker 1: revenue numbers of two point two billions at that that

547
00:29:10,240 --> 00:29:13,040
Speaker 1: at ten x gives you roughly between twenty and twenty

548
00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:16,680
Speaker 1: five billion UM. You could ask that the ten x

549
00:29:16,960 --> 00:29:21,640
Speaker 1: is reasonable multiple of the revenue. But if you think

550
00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:26,240
Speaker 1: about other rate right healing services around the world blah blah,

551
00:29:26,520 --> 00:29:30,200
Speaker 1: grab taxi, every other right healing services have been priced

552
00:29:30,240 --> 00:29:34,080
Speaker 1: at ten x or more. So I feel this is

553
00:29:34,120 --> 00:29:38,280
Speaker 1: that this company will grow into this valuation UM. Based

554
00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:41,160
Speaker 1: on the fundamentals right now, with your net operating losses

555
00:29:41,280 --> 00:29:44,680
Speaker 1: that nine dred and eleven millions, you couldn't argue this

556
00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:47,680
Speaker 1: valuation could be between twenty and twenty billion. But I

557
00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:51,719
Speaker 1: was feeling this company would grow into this valuation. So Professor,

558
00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:53,800
Speaker 1: I'm I'm glad you brought up the P and L there,

559
00:29:53,800 --> 00:29:56,920
Speaker 1: because Tom and I definitely noticed, uh that nine hundred

560
00:29:56,960 --> 00:29:59,040
Speaker 1: million dollar loss last year on a little over I

561
00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:02,120
Speaker 1: guess two billion dollar as of revenue. When at what

562
00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:05,880
Speaker 1: point does a company need to show profitability? We saw

563
00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:09,280
Speaker 1: some pretty good path of profitability for Alphabet and Facebook.

564
00:30:09,320 --> 00:30:11,720
Speaker 1: But these guys seem to be a long way away

565
00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:13,280
Speaker 1: and there seems to be a lot of roadblocks for

566
00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:17,960
Speaker 1: this right hailing business to achieve profitability. Uh, that's correct.

567
00:30:18,360 --> 00:30:21,640
Speaker 1: If you think about Facebook growing public, they have are

568
00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:25,040
Speaker 1: profitable at that time. But investors seem to give up

569
00:30:25,040 --> 00:30:29,160
Speaker 1: a pass for companies in spite of their net operating

570
00:30:29,360 --> 00:30:33,640
Speaker 1: losses or netlasses. People are seeking growth. They're willing to

571
00:30:33,640 --> 00:30:35,920
Speaker 1: pay anything for growth. If you think about growth as

572
00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:39,480
Speaker 1: a person value equation at low interest rates, the person

573
00:30:39,560 --> 00:30:42,640
Speaker 1: value of growth is very high. So that's why investors

574
00:30:42,640 --> 00:30:46,240
Speaker 1: are giving a pass for a company like Uber or Lift.

575
00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:51,000
Speaker 1: Is Graham down and Cardle dead? I mean we noticed

576
00:30:51,040 --> 00:30:54,560
Speaker 1: the joy of craft where the goodwill and the intangible

577
00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:58,200
Speaker 1: joy of the synergy. I hate that word, by the way, professor,

578
00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:01,280
Speaker 1: but but you know the it will went down and

579
00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:05,240
Speaker 1: became bad will very rapidly. Is Graham, Dott and Coddle

580
00:31:05,320 --> 00:31:10,040
Speaker 1: the iconic textbook. Is that dead? It is not. It

581
00:31:10,120 --> 00:31:14,360
Speaker 1: will make its resurgence um sooner than later. But invest

582
00:31:14,840 --> 00:31:18,000
Speaker 1: right now. Sorry to use a cliche, that you're are

583
00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:20,920
Speaker 1: missing out. They just want to get into any good

584
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:25,360
Speaker 1: company that is possible, that is what's happening here, So, Professor,

585
00:31:25,480 --> 00:31:28,360
Speaker 1: over the last several years, we've actually seen some down

586
00:31:28,480 --> 00:31:31,800
Speaker 1: rounds in the private equity market. We've seen some down

587
00:31:31,880 --> 00:31:35,479
Speaker 1: I p O valuations versus the last our latest private

588
00:31:35,480 --> 00:31:37,640
Speaker 1: equity round. Can you give us a sense of what

589
00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:40,600
Speaker 1: the relationship is today between and for these tech companies

590
00:31:40,640 --> 00:31:43,920
Speaker 1: coming out of Silicon value the relationship between the private

591
00:31:43,920 --> 00:31:46,840
Speaker 1: equity market and the public equity market in terms of

592
00:31:46,840 --> 00:31:52,080
Speaker 1: evaluation um private equity valuations. I'm not a huge fan

593
00:31:52,360 --> 00:31:56,800
Speaker 1: because there could be some preferencial share structures, so based

594
00:31:56,840 --> 00:32:00,120
Speaker 1: evaluation of the private markets into a public market is

595
00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:06,400
Speaker 1: a very hard task. Having said that, currently Lift is

596
00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:10,640
Speaker 1: priced in the private markets at fifteen fifteen billion, but

597
00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:13,840
Speaker 1: that was roughly based off of expected one point five

598
00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:17,959
Speaker 1: billion at ten x. Since they're surprised to the upside

599
00:32:17,960 --> 00:32:20,880
Speaker 1: of two point two billion, that is why investors applying

600
00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:23,640
Speaker 1: at ten next ten x is not really steep. But

601
00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:25,680
Speaker 1: if you think about the eavy to save for the

602
00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:29,440
Speaker 1: market at two point five it seems very high. But

603
00:32:29,640 --> 00:32:32,880
Speaker 1: for a good company, investors are willing to pay. Somewhere

604
00:32:32,880 --> 00:32:36,680
Speaker 1: Buried in the CFA curriculous enough linear algebra, uh and

605
00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:40,080
Speaker 1: I should say regression analysis to keep one going, And

606
00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:44,240
Speaker 1: basically it says beware of extrapolation. How do you respond

607
00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:49,720
Speaker 1: to the extrapolation habit a funding of tech deals where

608
00:32:49,800 --> 00:32:55,320
Speaker 1: you then extrapolate out a terminal value for that equity offering.

609
00:32:55,680 --> 00:32:58,640
Speaker 1: Where did that vogue start? Professor Sigram is at your fault,

610
00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:04,520
Speaker 1: it's not. It's not my fault. Tom. So you're talking

611
00:33:04,560 --> 00:33:07,840
Speaker 1: about extracting the terminal value from this valuation? Is that

612
00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:10,080
Speaker 1: correct on my understanding? Yeah? You know, somebody does a

613
00:33:10,200 --> 00:33:13,440
Speaker 1: round of financing a four million and some guide n

614
00:33:13,560 --> 00:33:19,440
Speaker 1: YU decides the companies were seven billion dollars. Discuss So

615
00:33:20,400 --> 00:33:23,280
Speaker 1: I put pretty much look at the fundamentals of a company, Tom,

616
00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:26,640
Speaker 1: I look at the growth, risk and cash flows of

617
00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:29,920
Speaker 1: a company. But here what we have to think about

618
00:33:30,200 --> 00:33:34,000
Speaker 1: is this is a brand new disructing service. So to

619
00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:36,560
Speaker 1: price something on the fundamental is going to be always

620
00:33:36,640 --> 00:33:39,560
Speaker 1: difficult for us. So if you have priced Amazon on

621
00:33:39,600 --> 00:33:42,320
Speaker 1: the fundamentals for the last fifteen or twenty years, even

622
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:47,520
Speaker 1: I've gotten that value Amazon trading at so certain distructive technologies,

623
00:33:47,840 --> 00:33:50,320
Speaker 1: we have to be a little bit liberal about the

624
00:33:50,320 --> 00:33:53,280
Speaker 1: fundamental valuation here. That is what exactly happening in my

625
00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:58,920
Speaker 1: humble opinion, So, Professor, I noticed in the perspectives here

626
00:33:58,960 --> 00:34:02,560
Speaker 1: for Lift, another example of dual class stock that seems

627
00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:04,720
Speaker 1: to be very prevalent for a lot of these tech

628
00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:09,920
Speaker 1: companies coming public. Um does the market discount the valuation

629
00:34:09,960 --> 00:34:14,120
Speaker 1: at all anymore for dual class stock? UM? I don't

630
00:34:14,120 --> 00:34:17,239
Speaker 1: think so. Um, it is the norm for the tech companies.

631
00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:21,880
Speaker 1: Twenty to one vote is a steep vote. But invest

632
00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:25,839
Speaker 1: is very forgiving at this moment towards a GULD company.

633
00:34:26,160 --> 00:34:29,560
Speaker 1: So it used to be a problem for corporate governance practices,

634
00:34:29,640 --> 00:34:31,680
Speaker 1: but I don't think that is the case right now

635
00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:35,880
Speaker 1: that this is not impacting the valuation. Professor, thank you

636
00:34:35,920 --> 00:34:38,239
Speaker 1: so much. Greatly appreciated her run segment with us with

637
00:34:38,320 --> 00:34:42,160
Speaker 1: New York University Stern School of Business, their professor and finance.

638
00:34:42,239 --> 00:34:49,880
Speaker 1: We greatly appreciate it. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg

639
00:34:49,920 --> 00:34:55,839
Speaker 1: Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

640
00:34:56,239 --> 00:35:00,480
Speaker 1: or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Winter at

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Speaker 1: Tom Keane before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide.

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Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio