WEBVTT - Taming Labour and Facing Down Farage: Steve Richards on Burnham's Plan

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>The last few weeks have been kind of spellbinding. Andy

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<v Speaker 2>Burnham won a by election, he became an MP, and

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<v Speaker 2>within weeks of that he's going to be Prime Minister.

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<v Speaker 2>We're in an extraordinary period and because it's moving so fast,

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<v Speaker 2>you can lose how astonishing it is.

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<v Speaker 1>Steve Richards, podcaster and UK political commentator Nigel Farage has

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<v Speaker 1>definitely been an actor in this Labour drama.

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<v Speaker 2>Hasn't he reform of being ahead and opinion polls in

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<v Speaker 2>Britain for a long time now, and part of his

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<v Speaker 2>task is to turn that round. I think what he

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<v Speaker 2>will try and do is become the figure all those

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<v Speaker 2>who want to stop Farage becoming Prime minister feel okay

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<v Speaker 2>about coalescing.

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<v Speaker 1>Around on Bloomberg Weekend. This is the Mishal Husain Show.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Mishal Husain. We did a UK politics episode here

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<v Speaker 1>a few weeks ago, but so much has happened since

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<v Speaker 1>that it was time to return a new prime minister.

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<v Speaker 1>Andy Burnham looks set to soon be seen walking up

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<v Speaker 1>Downing Street and taking the reins of power. Part of

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<v Speaker 1>the background to that the Labour Party deciding to replace

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<v Speaker 1>its leader mid term has been the rise of Nigel Farage,

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<v Speaker 1>and this has been a week when he has again

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<v Speaker 1>dominated the headlines. There's been scrutiny of his donors, his benefits,

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<v Speaker 1>his property portfolio, and he has responded to that by

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<v Speaker 1>calling for a rerun of the contest for his parliamentary seat.

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<v Speaker 1>So there is a lot happening in British politics right now.

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<v Speaker 1>Labour is hoping to look refreshed and revived through bringing

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<v Speaker 1>in Andy Burnham, someone who was until recently the mayor

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<v Speaker 1>of one of England's great cities. I interviewed him when

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<v Speaker 1>he was in that role in Manchester. He talked about

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<v Speaker 1>his ambition, his responsibilities, his sense of mission. He was

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<v Speaker 1>very far then from being a national leader. I've been

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<v Speaker 1>thinking too of the change in Keir Starmer's fortunes from

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<v Speaker 1>the moment that we stood together on a TV debate

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<v Speaker 1>stage days before the last UK general election only two

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<v Speaker 1>years ago. But he had the wind in his sales

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<v Speaker 1>then he was the coming man taking us through all

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<v Speaker 1>of this. Is Steve Richards' longtime political commentator and now podcaster,

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<v Speaker 1>host of Rock and Roll Politics, a podcast with a

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<v Speaker 1>loyal army of listeners who he calls the cooperative. Steve

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<v Speaker 1>is particularly knowledgeable about Labour politics and leaders. He's the

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<v Speaker 1>author of many books, some of them are on the

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<v Speaker 1>table when he came into the studio, and I've put

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<v Speaker 1>details in the show notes, and do have a look

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<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg dot com forward slash Mitchell, because that is

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<v Speaker 1>where you will find my notes and reflections on each

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<v Speaker 1>and every episode, including what I read before and after

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<v Speaker 1>the conversations. And this time with Steve, we begin with

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<v Speaker 1>his writing and a very early observation of British politics.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm sure we're going to talk about characters in the

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<v Speaker 1>present day one in particular.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, exactly.

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<v Speaker 1>There's a great story that you share about Wilson and

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<v Speaker 1>seeing him have an egg thrown at him and the

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<v Speaker 1>way he responded to it.

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<v Speaker 2>It's an absolutely for me, a moment where politics came alive.

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<v Speaker 2>I was there and I was very young, and it

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<v Speaker 2>was just so.

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<v Speaker 1>Exciting and life. It seems to bring him alive horribly.

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<v Speaker 2>He looked about ninety and this happened, and he changed,

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<v Speaker 2>came about thirty years younger, and the whole mood of

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<v Speaker 2>the hall changed. And I was about ten or eleven,

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<v Speaker 2>but I found it fascinating. I can do it with

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<v Speaker 2>the Harold Wilson impersonation, but it will be lost on

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<v Speaker 2>most of your.

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<v Speaker 1>Audience, or share it with me now though he's.

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<v Speaker 2>Sort of looked up with this egg down and I said,

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<v Speaker 2>now here we have six months of a Labour government,

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<v Speaker 2>which goes to show you could only afford to throw

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<v Speaker 2>eggs under a Labour government. And the whole audience laughed

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<v Speaker 2>and erupted, and the I say, Wilson looked about fifty

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<v Speaker 2>compared to ninety. And it's the humor as a power

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<v Speaker 2>of leadership.

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<v Speaker 1>And the presence of mind.

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<v Speaker 2>And to act quickly.

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<v Speaker 1>Exactly right, because he's before the social media era. But

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<v Speaker 1>hearing you describe that, I can imagine him in the

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<v Speaker 1>era of being door-stopped with the camera and having phones

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<v Speaker 1>in your face all the time. Yeah, exactly, exactly, Steve.

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<v Speaker 1>I wanted to start with the theme of your latest book,

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<v Speaker 1>Turning Points, because it is about moments of crisis or change.

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<v Speaker 1>Some of them are British political crises, some of them

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<v Speaker 1>are international, the decision to go to war in Iraq,

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<v Speaker 1>the pandemic, the global financial crash. But it made me

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<v Speaker 1>wonder about something relating to now. Technically, what we're about

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<v Speaker 1>to see is effectively a handover from one Labour prime

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<v Speaker 1>minister to another. But do you think it could be

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<v Speaker 1>more than that? Do you think that this transition could

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<v Speaker 1>actually be a turning point for Britain.

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<v Speaker 2>I think it could. And it's not automatic. When there

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<v Speaker 2>is a change of prime minister mid term. The external

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<v Speaker 2>challenges remain the same, a lot of the government remains

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<v Speaker 2>the same. But in this case, the rise of Andy Burnham,

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<v Speaker 2>it could be because he has got a very clear

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<v Speaker 2>agenda for what has gone wrong with the British state

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<v Speaker 2>and how Britain is governed and how he wants to

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<v Speaker 2>put it right now. If he and it's a big if,

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<v Speaker 2>if he implements his plan, this will be a turning point.

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<v Speaker 2>And no one quite knows in advance how a prime

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<v Speaker 2>minister is going to perform, but certainly his ideas partly

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<v Speaker 2>learned from when he left Westminster many years ago, has

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<v Speaker 2>the potential to be transformative.

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<v Speaker 1>This great rebalancing of power, the biggest rebalancing of power

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<v Speaker 1>in British history or recent British history, which he has stated.

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<v Speaker 1>And we don't have very much detail on that, and

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<v Speaker 1>I have, and you have much more than me heard

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<v Speaker 1>people are about to lead or want to lead, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>making these big speeches, I'll reduce welfare spending, I'll build

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<v Speaker 1>more houses. But you think there is something fundamental that

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<v Speaker 1>he wants to get.

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<v Speaker 2>So one qualification in British politics. Quite often leaders who

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<v Speaker 2>are about to become prime minister, whatever the context, often

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<v Speaker 2>claim their big idea is a change in the way

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<v Speaker 2>power is exercised. I think the difference here is Andy

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<v Speaker 2>Burnham means it. I think his experience of being a

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<v Speaker 2>mayor of Greater Manchester, where he saw certainly in transport,

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<v Speaker 2>the power of local leadership translating into an actual policy development,

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<v Speaker 2>means that he thinks this is a way forward, and

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<v Speaker 2>I think he's got views also on the way the

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<v Speaker 2>British state has become pretty dysfunctional, more widely beyond the

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<v Speaker 2>need to devolve power. He calls it the outsourced state.

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<v Speaker 2>A lot of Britain is run by unelected agents, these

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<v Speaker 2>private companies, and the paths of accountability and responsibility are

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<v Speaker 2>so blurred it's very hard for a government to get

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<v Speaker 2>anything done. Now, how he finds the money to deal

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<v Speaker 2>with this is a huge, huge question.

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<v Speaker 1>And we're going to dig into all of that, the

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<v Speaker 1>ideas and how to implement them and what they'll cost.

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<v Speaker 1>But I want to talk for a moment about how

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<v Speaker 1>the UK got to this point in time where a

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<v Speaker 1>prime minister who wanted huge majority less than two years

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<v Speaker 1>ago ends up being booted out by his own party.

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<v Speaker 1>Now you're really plugged into Labour politics, in particular your son,

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<v Speaker 1>your son in law of both MPs. Your daughter is

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<v Speaker 1>a political advisor too. When did you first start hearing

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<v Speaker 1>that Starmer was in serious trouble with his own MPs, Well.

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<v Speaker 2>Not from any of them.

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<v Speaker 1>I find that hard to be seriously seriously they careful.

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<v Speaker 1>It ends up on air, really really careful.

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<v Speaker 2>I think they see me as irritant to be honest,

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<v Speaker 2>because I just have my own views, I mean, and

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<v Speaker 2>my view is that he was in trouble from quite

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<v Speaker 2>early on. Leadership requires sort of titanic qualities and he

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<v Speaker 2>came into politics very late and didn't have many of

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<v Speaker 2>those titanic qualities. He had a few resilience when he

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<v Speaker 2>chose to to have a dogged attention to policy detail,

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<v Speaker 2>but I don't think he understood how you had to

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<v Speaker 2>work a government, how to liaise with his MPs who

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<v Speaker 2>became antagonistic quite early on some of them.

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<v Speaker 1>Anyway, should Starmer ever have been leader of the Labour Party,

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<v Speaker 1>then what would you give him credit for.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, on one level, it's fascinating because here is someone

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<v Speaker 2>who not only led Labour to a victory, but a

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<v Speaker 2>landslide election victory, and Labour don't win many general elections

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<v Speaker 2>in Britain. So that was an achievement, There's no doubt

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<v Speaker 2>about it. And if you step back from all the noise,

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<v Speaker 2>there were also policy reforms of some considerable significance. The

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<v Speaker 2>National Health Service is in a better place now measurably

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<v Speaker 2>than it was, and I think the economy is more

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<v Speaker 2>stable than it was. But you know, to be honest,

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<v Speaker 2>after the fourteen years of pretty wild rule, the Liz

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<v Speaker 2>Truss premiership, the Boris Johnson premiership, I think the anti

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<v Speaker 2>Tory mood was set. And he'll hate me for saying this,

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<v Speaker 2>but the degree to which Keir Starmer brought about that

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<v Speaker 2>victory is questionable. I think Boris Johnson, Liz Trusts and

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<v Speaker 2>others helped Labour return with that landslide.

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<v Speaker 1>He lost the election. Conservatives lost the election more than

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<v Speaker 1>Labour winning it. He did, however, transform the party in

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<v Speaker 1>the minds of those were very against it during the

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<v Speaker 1>Jeremy Corbyn years and that period Andy Burnham sat out

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<v Speaker 1>because he was running Greater Manchester in that time. Is

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<v Speaker 1>that an achievement in your view? That Starmer did put

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<v Speaker 1>the party in a position where people who had turned

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<v Speaker 1>against them compared.

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<v Speaker 2>It was partly an achievement and partly a problem. Here's

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<v Speaker 2>why the achievement was very quickly he took control of

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<v Speaker 2>the Labour Party. The Labour Party is really hard to control.

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<v Speaker 2>And I see Neil Kinnock who led Labour in the

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<v Speaker 2>nineteen eighties and really had to change Labour from the

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<v Speaker 2>doldrums of absolute election slaughters. And Neil Kinnock says, I

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<v Speaker 2>won't use the swear words he put in as well,

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<v Speaker 2>but he said, oh the hell did he do this?

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<v Speaker 2>You know? Took Neil Kinnock at nine years very quickly kissed.

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<v Speaker 2>Armer had the leavers of power in the Labour Party. However,

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<v Speaker 2>in the way he became a very authoritarian leader, expelling

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<v Speaker 2>people who challenged what he and his then chief advisor,

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<v Speaker 2>Morgan Sweeney regarded as the only acceptable route to take.

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<v Speaker 2>The sort of sacking of various ministers on the so

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<v Speaker 2>called soft left of the Labour Party ended up giving

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<v Speaker 2>those very victims more power than they've ever possessed before.

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<v Speaker 1>I remember from of them end up being key at

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<v Speaker 1>Burnham supporter. He made enemies that way, but he say,

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<v Speaker 1>wouldn't he steve that he was standing up for principles

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<v Speaker 1>that after that time under the Tories, where it seemed

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<v Speaker 1>that you could get away with anything as a as

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<v Speaker 1>an MP or a minister. He wanted to uphold standards

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<v Speaker 1>in public life and therefore if people made mistakes, they

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<v Speaker 1>had to go.

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<v Speaker 2>I think it was broader than that. So for example,

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<v Speaker 2>in the build up to the election, they blocked certain

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<v Speaker 2>candidates from standing not for making mistakes but for what

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<v Speaker 2>they believe. And speaking to Kis Starmer about this when

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<v Speaker 2>he was in opposition, you know, I said to him,

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<v Speaker 2>because you just end up with a perception of a

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<v Speaker 2>party that's pretty weird. You know, there is forty points

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<v Speaker 2>ahead in the opinion polls, sort of turning in on itself.

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<v Speaker 2>But his view was, or the view of his advisors,

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<v Speaker 2>was you get credit for taking on elements of your party,

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<v Speaker 2>and I'm not sure whether that's the case.

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<v Speaker 1>He also would appear blocked Andy Burnham from returning to

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<v Speaker 1>Parliament earlier than he had.

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<v Speaker 2>That was for a different reason, of course.

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<v Speaker 1>Because he didn't want him in parliament able to stand

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<v Speaker 1>against him, able to stand against it has now come

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<v Speaker 1>to pass, Which.

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<v Speaker 2>Has now come to pass. It is the most extraordinary

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<v Speaker 2>sequence of recent times. Just a few months ago Kirs Starmer,

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<v Speaker 2>with an absolute, overt ruthless determination, went to the meeting

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<v Speaker 2>of Labour's governing body and per personally put the case

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<v Speaker 2>for blocking him and succeeded because he had complete control

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<v Speaker 2>of the Labour Party. And yet a few months later

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<v Speaker 2>and this was a sign that was over for Kirs Starmer.

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<v Speaker 2>He was too weak to repeat the exercise. And Addie Burnham,

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<v Speaker 2>who looked as if there was no route into the

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<v Speaker 2>House of Commons, found a route. And the last few

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<v Speaker 2>days weeks have been kind of spellbinding. From he was

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<v Speaker 2>outside the House of Commons, he won a by election,

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<v Speaker 2>he became an MP, and within weeks of that he's

0:14:33.800 --> 0:14:36.239
<v Speaker 2>going to be Prime Minister. It's extraordinary.

0:14:36.280 --> 0:14:39.040
<v Speaker 1>But even the circumstance of that seat becoming available, the

0:14:39.040 --> 0:14:42.800
<v Speaker 1>one he stood in, was because a Labour MP gave

0:14:42.920 --> 0:14:45.600
<v Speaker 1>up their seat in order to make way for him,

0:14:45.600 --> 0:14:47.520
<v Speaker 1>which I haven't seen happen before.

0:14:47.600 --> 0:14:50.760
<v Speaker 2>It's never happened before. And this MP was a very

0:14:50.800 --> 0:14:51.840
<v Speaker 2>ambitious MP.

0:14:52.080 --> 0:14:55.040
<v Speaker 1>Who presumably will now come back, who.

0:14:54.240 --> 0:14:57.360
<v Speaker 2>Will come back in some shape or form. Absolutely there

0:14:57.400 --> 0:15:01.440
<v Speaker 2>will be a reward for that sacrifice. And what a sacrifice.

0:15:01.480 --> 0:15:03.920
<v Speaker 2>You know, it's hard work getting a seat and he

0:15:04.760 --> 0:15:08.880
<v Speaker 2>gave it up and in a way it was it

0:15:08.920 --> 0:15:13.360
<v Speaker 2>was like an episode of sort of Faulty Towers, you

0:15:13.360 --> 0:15:17.840
<v Speaker 2>know where number ten and Kissama thought, yeah, we've got

0:15:17.880 --> 0:15:21.000
<v Speaker 2>through it. And then it was announced this MP was

0:15:21.080 --> 0:15:25.360
<v Speaker 2>standing down for Andy Burnham and that was it. They

0:15:25.400 --> 0:15:26.320
<v Speaker 2>couldn't block him.

0:15:26.800 --> 0:15:29.440
<v Speaker 1>In your book, The Prime Minister, you have a very

0:15:29.560 --> 0:15:32.520
<v Speaker 1>useful checklist for if the country is looking to elect

0:15:32.520 --> 0:15:35.400
<v Speaker 1>a prime minister, he or she must have the following qualifications.

0:15:35.640 --> 0:15:37.400
<v Speaker 1>And the first one you put on the list is

0:15:37.480 --> 0:15:40.960
<v Speaker 1>he or she must be a political teacher, which I

0:15:41.000 --> 0:15:44.080
<v Speaker 1>thought teacher was a really interesting word to use here.

0:15:44.520 --> 0:15:46.640
<v Speaker 1>What do you mean by it? And is Andy Burnham

0:15:46.680 --> 0:15:47.920
<v Speaker 1>a political teacher? Yeah?

0:15:48.000 --> 0:15:54.800
<v Speaker 2>A political teacher is absolutely essential because policies rerupt around

0:15:55.040 --> 0:16:01.600
<v Speaker 2>voters all the time and what many inspiring leaders forget

0:16:01.720 --> 0:16:06.080
<v Speaker 2>to do is explain why they are doing what they're

0:16:06.240 --> 0:16:10.600
<v Speaker 2>doing and more widely. You have to then explain how

0:16:10.680 --> 0:16:14.880
<v Speaker 2>that policy fits into the rest of your government's policies,

0:16:15.400 --> 0:16:20.200
<v Speaker 2>and then frame an overall sense of purpose and mission.

0:16:20.760 --> 0:16:24.440
<v Speaker 2>And teaching can take kind of many different forms. President

0:16:24.440 --> 0:16:28.280
<v Speaker 2>Trump is a teacher in his own way, in.

0:16:28.160 --> 0:16:31.400
<v Speaker 1>His mastery of social media.

0:16:31.240 --> 0:16:36.640
<v Speaker 2>In his hunger to be the main commentator on his

0:16:36.680 --> 0:16:42.640
<v Speaker 2>own leadership, and so he is an around the clock commentator.

0:16:43.440 --> 0:16:47.960
<v Speaker 2>Now he does it in a very eccentric way, but

0:16:48.640 --> 0:16:52.320
<v Speaker 2>he is there explaining what he's doing and why he's

0:16:52.360 --> 0:16:55.640
<v Speaker 2>doing it all the time. Now, Addie Burnham is a

0:16:55.680 --> 0:17:01.000
<v Speaker 2>completely different political character, but he too is I think

0:17:01.480 --> 0:17:04.879
<v Speaker 2>a teacher. I say I think because you never wholly

0:17:04.960 --> 0:17:08.880
<v Speaker 2>know until they get into the position of ultimate power president,

0:17:08.960 --> 0:17:12.520
<v Speaker 2>prime minister. But I think he is one of those

0:17:12.680 --> 0:17:16.280
<v Speaker 2>who is conscious all the time. He needs to be

0:17:16.359 --> 0:17:20.520
<v Speaker 2>in a never ending dialogue with voters. His social media

0:17:21.280 --> 0:17:25.680
<v Speaker 2>videos are brilliant. Now whether it's going to be quite challenging.

0:17:25.720 --> 0:17:29.840
<v Speaker 2>So devolution his big theme is a quite dry topic,

0:17:30.920 --> 0:17:34.240
<v Speaker 2>so he has to make it exciting. So the big

0:17:34.280 --> 0:17:38.040
<v Speaker 2>test of his teaching capacity is to come. But the

0:17:38.080 --> 0:17:41.280
<v Speaker 2>great election winners and those who remain in power for

0:17:41.320 --> 0:17:43.800
<v Speaker 2>a long time are political teachers.

0:17:43.920 --> 0:17:47.200
<v Speaker 1>So it's interesting that you think he is that. And

0:17:47.720 --> 0:17:52.800
<v Speaker 1>obviously he's had a significant experience in Greater Manchester for

0:17:52.840 --> 0:17:56.240
<v Speaker 1>nearly a decade. He's grown in that job, no doubt.

0:17:56.240 --> 0:18:00.200
<v Speaker 1>But it's worth reminding everyone that he ran for the

0:18:00.240 --> 0:18:04.280
<v Speaker 1>Labour leadership twice before and lost. And you when you

0:18:04.359 --> 0:18:07.320
<v Speaker 1>interviewed him a couple of years ago, now you did

0:18:07.560 --> 0:18:09.920
<v Speaker 1>put this criticism to him that he has been seen

0:18:09.920 --> 0:18:12.720
<v Speaker 1>as a bit of a shape shifter, loyal to Tony Blair,

0:18:12.720 --> 0:18:16.000
<v Speaker 1>loyal to Gordon Brown, not necessarily willing to go up

0:18:16.000 --> 0:18:19.680
<v Speaker 1>against Jeremy Corbyn. Yeah, he had an answer.

0:18:19.280 --> 0:18:22.480
<v Speaker 2>For you, Yeah, I mean it was quite interesting. He said,

0:18:22.920 --> 0:18:25.879
<v Speaker 2>I was always to the left of New Labour.

0:18:26.200 --> 0:18:28.159
<v Speaker 1>This means essentially to the left of Tony Blair.

0:18:28.359 --> 0:18:31.760
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, yeah, So this is his own definition of who

0:18:31.880 --> 0:18:36.480
<v Speaker 2>he is and always was. And I have some sympathy

0:18:36.480 --> 0:18:38.320
<v Speaker 2>with him about this. As you know, there's a joke

0:18:38.440 --> 0:18:42.399
<v Speaker 2>doing the rounds about someone going into the pub who's

0:18:42.440 --> 0:18:47.000
<v Speaker 2>a Blairite a brown eye at Corbn easter Hallo, Andy Burnham.

0:18:47.560 --> 0:18:51.320
<v Speaker 2>But looking back to that period, there were lots of

0:18:51.359 --> 0:18:55.760
<v Speaker 2>people who came into Parliament during the Tony Blair period

0:18:56.400 --> 0:19:00.600
<v Speaker 2>who were ambitious and wanted to get into Tony Blair's government,

0:19:01.000 --> 0:19:05.040
<v Speaker 2>and they hadn't always been where Tony Blair was, and

0:19:05.080 --> 0:19:07.680
<v Speaker 2>they moved with the times and then they moved again.

0:19:08.080 --> 0:19:11.240
<v Speaker 2>Lots of people do that. So I think probably his

0:19:11.359 --> 0:19:15.960
<v Speaker 2>self description of being to the left economically but small

0:19:16.040 --> 0:19:20.840
<v Speaker 2>c conservative on issues like crime and immigration is probably

0:19:21.080 --> 0:19:42.360
<v Speaker 2>an accurate place to start in trying to understand him.

0:19:42.440 --> 0:19:46.480
<v Speaker 1>So let's dig into what he's done in Manchester, his

0:19:46.600 --> 0:19:50.160
<v Speaker 1>record and the idea that manchester Ism is the new

0:19:50.240 --> 0:19:53.359
<v Speaker 1>political philosophy that he will bring to the government of

0:19:53.400 --> 0:19:56.760
<v Speaker 1>the UK, a version of what he's achieved in Manchester.

0:19:57.000 --> 0:20:00.199
<v Speaker 1>Can you explain it with reference to the buses? What

0:20:00.240 --> 0:20:01.080
<v Speaker 1>did he do?

0:20:01.680 --> 0:20:02.160
<v Speaker 2>Yeah?

0:20:02.240 --> 0:20:04.200
<v Speaker 1>The terminology is significant.

0:20:04.560 --> 0:20:07.639
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, the terminology is really significant. And I made a

0:20:07.680 --> 0:20:09.640
<v Speaker 2>mistake in that interview idea and I said, so you've

0:20:09.680 --> 0:20:14.720
<v Speaker 2>become much more enthusiastic about public ownership. He uses the

0:20:14.840 --> 0:20:19.679
<v Speaker 2>term public control. So what happened in Greater Manchester and

0:20:19.760 --> 0:20:22.720
<v Speaker 2>it had already begun before he got there, and he's

0:20:22.760 --> 0:20:25.960
<v Speaker 2>been criticized for that as well, But I think that's

0:20:26.080 --> 0:20:29.560
<v Speaker 2>unfair because you know, it's not his fault that good

0:20:29.600 --> 0:20:32.640
<v Speaker 2>things were happening. It's how did he adapt to it

0:20:32.680 --> 0:20:37.199
<v Speaker 2>when he got there. And so the buses were privatized,

0:20:37.600 --> 0:20:41.479
<v Speaker 2>which meant only the routes that were profitable were run

0:20:41.760 --> 0:20:45.639
<v Speaker 2>with any kind of regularity. There's trams in Manchester. They

0:20:45.640 --> 0:20:51.200
<v Speaker 2>were completely disconnected from other transport services. So they connected

0:20:51.440 --> 0:20:56.040
<v Speaker 2>the whole thing and they regulated. Fairs were kept to

0:20:56.400 --> 0:20:59.080
<v Speaker 2>a minimum. You could have a ticket where you could

0:20:59.119 --> 0:21:02.040
<v Speaker 2>go from one form of transport a bus to another

0:21:02.160 --> 0:21:05.359
<v Speaker 2>the tracks as happens in London. And I remember the

0:21:05.400 --> 0:21:07.919
<v Speaker 2>day it all was interconnected. He did one of his

0:21:08.080 --> 0:21:12.560
<v Speaker 2>very clever pieces to camera on social media and it

0:21:12.600 --> 0:21:18.119
<v Speaker 2>felt exciting. Now that's not the same as renationalization because

0:21:18.160 --> 0:21:20.400
<v Speaker 2>the private sector is still involved.

0:21:20.960 --> 0:21:21.480
<v Speaker 1>Franchise.

0:21:21.520 --> 0:21:27.200
<v Speaker 2>They get a franchise, but it's it's regulated and coordinated.

0:21:26.440 --> 0:21:28.840
<v Speaker 1>And it they're forced to go to places which they

0:21:28.920 --> 0:21:31.200
<v Speaker 1>might not have chosen to go to route wise because

0:21:31.200 --> 0:21:34.880
<v Speaker 1>it wasn't profitable exactly. And I think passenger numbers have risen, so.

0:21:34.840 --> 0:21:38.680
<v Speaker 2>Passenger numbers worked in have risen. Revenue therefore goes up

0:21:39.320 --> 0:21:44.000
<v Speaker 2>and it generates growth because people can move around more efficiently.

0:21:44.600 --> 0:21:46.840
<v Speaker 2>And the key thing, and this is where it works,

0:21:46.880 --> 0:21:50.280
<v Speaker 2>I think, is these mayors are accountable for this, so

0:21:50.359 --> 0:21:52.840
<v Speaker 2>if it had gone wrong, Vernon would have been a

0:21:52.880 --> 0:21:56.359
<v Speaker 2>disaster area. The fact that it worked meant he was

0:21:56.440 --> 0:22:01.080
<v Speaker 2>incredibly popular in Greater Manchester and so it is about

0:22:01.119 --> 0:22:04.880
<v Speaker 2>how you work with the private sector in different ways.

0:22:05.320 --> 0:22:07.679
<v Speaker 2>Now the big test is whether you can extend it

0:22:07.760 --> 0:22:12.440
<v Speaker 2>across a whole country with different sized conurbations and all

0:22:12.440 --> 0:22:14.800
<v Speaker 2>of that, and that's a huge question.

0:22:14.560 --> 0:22:17.080
<v Speaker 1>And not just in transport, in lots of other areas.

0:22:17.160 --> 0:22:20.840
<v Speaker 1>This exactly pamphlet that was released in this critical period

0:22:21.160 --> 0:22:23.600
<v Speaker 1>a few weeks ago as Labour was mulling a new

0:22:23.680 --> 0:22:26.080
<v Speaker 1>leader called the Productive State, which I think is known

0:22:26.200 --> 0:22:28.560
<v Speaker 1>to be an influence. It comes from a group of

0:22:28.680 --> 0:22:32.440
<v Speaker 1>MPs and Andy Burnham's endorsed this position. The Productive State

0:22:32.480 --> 0:22:35.280
<v Speaker 1>of Framework for manchesteris and which says that what's been

0:22:35.320 --> 0:22:38.080
<v Speaker 1>done with buses could be done for water and energy.

0:22:38.680 --> 0:22:42.359
<v Speaker 1>I mean, the idea is not just to make services better,

0:22:42.400 --> 0:22:45.240
<v Speaker 1>but also to bring down the cost of living again,

0:22:45.320 --> 0:22:47.919
<v Speaker 1>something that everyone wants to do everywhere in the world.

0:22:48.240 --> 0:22:51.040
<v Speaker 1>I think what's interesting about this paper, and which I

0:22:51.040 --> 0:22:53.439
<v Speaker 1>hadn't really thought about in this way till it's spelt

0:22:53.480 --> 0:22:56.880
<v Speaker 1>it out, is that it says that the high cost

0:22:56.880 --> 0:22:59.320
<v Speaker 1>of essentials in the UK is not just about individual

0:22:59.359 --> 0:23:03.600
<v Speaker 1>household It puts pressure on public spending because the welfare

0:23:03.640 --> 0:23:07.280
<v Speaker 1>state has to cushion the blow of that. But the

0:23:07.280 --> 0:23:09.840
<v Speaker 1>money it spends on housing benefit goes to landlords, or

0:23:09.880 --> 0:23:11.919
<v Speaker 1>the money it might spend on energy bills goes to

0:23:11.960 --> 0:23:16.360
<v Speaker 1>the energy companies. The state ameliorates without ever being permitted

0:23:16.400 --> 0:23:19.320
<v Speaker 1>to cure directly. This is the fiscal escalator we are

0:23:19.359 --> 0:23:22.199
<v Speaker 1>trapped on. Yeah, there's clearly a problem there, but it

0:23:22.200 --> 0:23:25.160
<v Speaker 1>feels like an immense one to solve.

0:23:25.040 --> 0:23:27.080
<v Speaker 2>It, really does. I think this is what he means

0:23:27.080 --> 0:23:32.879
<v Speaker 2>by this phrase the outsourced state, because how do you

0:23:33.720 --> 0:23:37.760
<v Speaker 2>to use another very popular phrase in British politics, take

0:23:37.880 --> 0:23:41.840
<v Speaker 2>back control or a degree of control and your right

0:23:41.920 --> 0:23:47.040
<v Speaker 2>to suggest or imply that. With transport, to some extent,

0:23:47.200 --> 0:23:52.600
<v Speaker 2>it's easy because the sums involved aren't huge. I mean,

0:23:52.640 --> 0:23:56.840
<v Speaker 2>buses are relatively cheap to run. The challenge with something

0:23:56.920 --> 0:24:00.960
<v Speaker 2>like water is massive because the truth is there has

0:24:01.040 --> 0:24:06.480
<v Speaker 2>been under investment in water since the privatization and before

0:24:06.600 --> 0:24:07.640
<v Speaker 2>they were privatized.

0:24:08.000 --> 0:24:10.760
<v Speaker 1>Where do you think those sums that will be necessary

0:24:10.800 --> 0:24:13.960
<v Speaker 1>will come from? Because the choice could largely be taxation,

0:24:14.080 --> 0:24:17.800
<v Speaker 1>or it could be borrowing. He has said he will

0:24:17.840 --> 0:24:21.399
<v Speaker 1>stick to the current government's rules which limit borrowing for

0:24:21.480 --> 0:24:25.280
<v Speaker 1>day to day spending. So I mean, what are you expecting,

0:24:25.359 --> 0:24:27.600
<v Speaker 1>more taxation or more borrowing or a mix.

0:24:28.000 --> 0:24:30.320
<v Speaker 2>There's going to have to be more taxation. I mean,

0:24:30.359 --> 0:24:33.280
<v Speaker 2>if you look at what he has been saying, and

0:24:33.320 --> 0:24:35.359
<v Speaker 2>I think at this point we do have to follow

0:24:35.480 --> 0:24:38.040
<v Speaker 2>what he has been saying and assume he means it.

0:24:38.560 --> 0:24:40.920
<v Speaker 2>So one of the things he has said is that

0:24:40.960 --> 0:24:44.520
<v Speaker 2>he's going to initiate the biggest council house building program

0:24:44.680 --> 0:24:49.960
<v Speaker 2>for decades. We know he wants to speed up plans

0:24:50.000 --> 0:24:54.000
<v Speaker 2>for a national social care system. When he was Health Secretary,

0:24:54.119 --> 0:24:57.679
<v Speaker 2>he had devised one and was going to fund it

0:24:57.760 --> 0:25:01.200
<v Speaker 2>through various means, which got labeled as the death tax

0:25:01.320 --> 0:25:03.199
<v Speaker 2>because it was about inheritance.

0:25:02.680 --> 0:25:05.000
<v Speaker 1>Stuff tax on people's estates exactly.

0:25:05.280 --> 0:25:09.480
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. So then we look at the demands for defense spending,

0:25:09.760 --> 0:25:11.880
<v Speaker 2>which seemed to go up and up on a kind

0:25:11.920 --> 0:25:15.879
<v Speaker 2>of near daily basis, and we haven't even got to water.

0:25:16.280 --> 0:25:20.200
<v Speaker 2>So these are huge things. We also know that he's

0:25:20.240 --> 0:25:23.000
<v Speaker 2>publicly said he will stick to the fiscal rules, although

0:25:23.080 --> 0:25:25.679
<v Speaker 2>he's indicated in the past that they need to be

0:25:25.720 --> 0:25:28.320
<v Speaker 2>looked at again, but I don't think he has the

0:25:28.400 --> 0:25:30.560
<v Speaker 2>space to look at them again at the beginning. There

0:25:30.640 --> 0:25:34.600
<v Speaker 2>is a fear in Britain of every incoming prime minister

0:25:35.160 --> 0:25:39.760
<v Speaker 2>of having a Liz Trust experience. Liz Trust prime minister

0:25:39.800 --> 0:25:42.919
<v Speaker 2>for a month, the markets went bonkers and she was

0:25:42.960 --> 0:25:46.760
<v Speaker 2>out and so therefore I think he will have to

0:25:47.280 --> 0:25:50.600
<v Speaker 2>and will, I think put up taxes and how he

0:25:50.640 --> 0:25:54.560
<v Speaker 2>does that will be very interesting who he targets because

0:25:54.640 --> 0:25:58.520
<v Speaker 2>these mid term prime ministers are constrained. They haven't won

0:25:58.600 --> 0:26:03.760
<v Speaker 2>an election. So he's working on a parliament elected on

0:26:03.880 --> 0:26:07.840
<v Speaker 2>Labour's manifesto at the last general election, which ruled out

0:26:07.920 --> 0:26:09.199
<v Speaker 2>quite a lot of tax rises.

0:26:09.960 --> 0:26:12.280
<v Speaker 1>Well, or he's in the position where he doesn't have

0:26:12.440 --> 0:26:16.200
<v Speaker 1>to have an election for another three years and he

0:26:16.240 --> 0:26:19.560
<v Speaker 1>could do it that time and you know, try and

0:26:19.600 --> 0:26:23.720
<v Speaker 1>show a record that enables people to elect him at

0:26:23.720 --> 0:26:24.240
<v Speaker 1>that point.

0:26:24.520 --> 0:26:28.639
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, that is probably what he will do. It's quite

0:26:28.720 --> 0:26:31.720
<v Speaker 2>hard if you're a prime minister to give up a

0:26:31.800 --> 0:26:35.359
<v Speaker 2>House of Comments where you have a majority of way

0:26:35.600 --> 0:26:39.800
<v Speaker 2>over one hundred, which is huge in British politics. Most

0:26:39.840 --> 0:26:44.200
<v Speaker 2>prime ministers would die for this kind of majority. However,

0:26:44.800 --> 0:26:47.560
<v Speaker 2>this will be a running theme it always is with

0:26:47.640 --> 0:26:51.600
<v Speaker 2>incoming prime ministers. And the one advantage it would give

0:26:51.640 --> 0:26:54.480
<v Speaker 2>Andy Burnham if he were to hold and win a

0:26:54.480 --> 0:26:59.560
<v Speaker 2>general election is he would then be freer to pursue

0:26:59.600 --> 0:27:03.720
<v Speaker 2>his own agenda on all these issues, giving away power

0:27:04.200 --> 0:27:07.159
<v Speaker 2>from the center to the local tax. He would have

0:27:07.200 --> 0:27:10.720
<v Speaker 2>more flexibility. Mind you, going into an election saying you're

0:27:10.760 --> 0:27:13.600
<v Speaker 2>going to change that is a risk as well as

0:27:13.640 --> 0:27:17.800
<v Speaker 2>ever with leadership, he faces thousands of dilemmas.

0:27:18.160 --> 0:27:20.120
<v Speaker 1>It's interesting that you don't think he'll go for more

0:27:20.160 --> 0:27:22.719
<v Speaker 1>borrowing because you could make the argument for borrowing and

0:27:22.760 --> 0:27:24.960
<v Speaker 1>say it's not for day to day spending, it's for

0:27:25.119 --> 0:27:29.040
<v Speaker 1>investing in the future, and in this Productive State pamphlet,

0:27:29.760 --> 0:27:31.800
<v Speaker 1>that's essentially the argument they put that it's not going

0:27:31.840 --> 0:27:34.160
<v Speaker 1>to be the same kind of borrowing in the past,

0:27:34.320 --> 0:27:39.200
<v Speaker 1>and therefore it is something that the ball markets could

0:27:39.240 --> 0:27:39.680
<v Speaker 1>buy into.

0:27:39.800 --> 0:27:44.119
<v Speaker 2>It's quite interesting because Rachel Reeves, the current Chancellor, who

0:27:44.280 --> 0:27:48.480
<v Speaker 2>will lose her job when Andy Burnham comes in. He'll

0:27:48.520 --> 0:27:53.920
<v Speaker 2>appoint a new chancellor, did change her very rigid fiscal

0:27:54.080 --> 0:27:59.359
<v Speaker 2>rules on capital spending investment in infrastructure, so they have

0:27:59.480 --> 0:28:03.000
<v Speaker 2>a bit of flexibility there already. And you are right

0:28:03.119 --> 0:28:07.600
<v Speaker 2>that some of those who are very influential on him,

0:28:07.920 --> 0:28:10.840
<v Speaker 2>people who were in the cabinet under Keir Starmer who

0:28:10.880 --> 0:28:15.080
<v Speaker 2>sometimes got sacked from his cabinet, have been arguing that

0:28:16.480 --> 0:28:19.879
<v Speaker 2>the markets will be okay if you can show you

0:28:19.960 --> 0:28:22.560
<v Speaker 2>are borrowing to invest in a way that actually will

0:28:22.640 --> 0:28:27.240
<v Speaker 2>raise revenue and be part of this so called productive state.

0:28:27.800 --> 0:28:29.919
<v Speaker 2>So they might try and go a bit further. But

0:28:29.960 --> 0:28:33.880
<v Speaker 2>they already have a bit more room than many realized

0:28:33.920 --> 0:28:37.040
<v Speaker 2>because Rachel Reeves did revise this. She's cross. She hasn't

0:28:37.040 --> 0:28:39.760
<v Speaker 2>got credit for it, but there it is. They've got

0:28:40.000 --> 0:28:41.520
<v Speaker 2>more room to borrow if they want to.

0:28:41.640 --> 0:28:43.680
<v Speaker 1>And I know you're in favor of Ed Miliband as

0:28:43.720 --> 0:28:44.600
<v Speaker 1>the next chancellor.

0:28:44.880 --> 0:28:47.080
<v Speaker 2>I think if you're going to be a change maker

0:28:47.120 --> 0:28:49.960
<v Speaker 2>prime Minister, you might as well bring in a change

0:28:50.000 --> 0:28:51.400
<v Speaker 2>making chancellor.

0:28:51.560 --> 0:28:53.880
<v Speaker 1>You put him and his brother David, who's been a

0:28:53.920 --> 0:28:55.640
<v Speaker 1>guest on the show, and actually when he was on

0:28:55.680 --> 0:28:57.600
<v Speaker 1>the show in January did say it was wrong to

0:28:57.680 --> 0:29:02.280
<v Speaker 1>block Andy Burnham from return at that stage. I mean

0:29:02.480 --> 0:29:05.520
<v Speaker 1>Ed Miliband is someone you describe him when he was

0:29:05.600 --> 0:29:10.200
<v Speaker 1>Labour Leader the night of the twenty fifteen election, absolutely

0:29:10.240 --> 0:29:14.560
<v Speaker 1>convinced he was going to win and collapsing in tears.

0:29:15.120 --> 0:29:18.360
<v Speaker 1>The shock of defeat profoundly disturbing for him. Hours earlier,

0:29:18.400 --> 0:29:20.960
<v Speaker 1>he'd assumed he would be driving to Number ten via

0:29:21.000 --> 0:29:26.800
<v Speaker 1>Buckingham Palace. What is his character and his politics? I mean,

0:29:26.800 --> 0:29:29.640
<v Speaker 1>we know, but he's like probably I would imagine, to

0:29:29.680 --> 0:29:32.560
<v Speaker 1>the left of Andy Burnham. Do you think he's certainly

0:29:32.560 --> 0:29:36.320
<v Speaker 1>read ed too parts of the press in this country.

0:29:37.000 --> 0:29:40.160
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, he is really interesting and in a way more

0:29:40.200 --> 0:29:44.480
<v Speaker 2>interesting I think than is widely recognized, because I'd forgotten

0:29:44.480 --> 0:29:47.920
<v Speaker 2>about that. But you're right. He so thought he would

0:29:47.960 --> 0:29:51.480
<v Speaker 2>be Prime Minister that he and his chief advisor spent

0:29:51.520 --> 0:29:55.400
<v Speaker 2>the evening forming the government who would get which job,

0:29:55.640 --> 0:29:59.480
<v Speaker 2>and then the Conservatives won with a small overall majority,

0:29:59.520 --> 0:30:03.360
<v Speaker 2>and he was distraught and has taken a long time

0:30:03.440 --> 0:30:07.040
<v Speaker 2>to recover from it. It is traumatic to be rejected

0:30:07.400 --> 0:30:11.320
<v Speaker 2>in this way for any leader anywhere in the world. However,

0:30:11.520 --> 0:30:15.560
<v Speaker 2>what is really interesting about him is he stuck with politics.

0:30:15.800 --> 0:30:19.320
<v Speaker 2>He didn't leave the House of Commons and has been

0:30:19.400 --> 0:30:24.840
<v Speaker 2>this radical energy secretary in the Keir Starmer government, arguably

0:30:25.440 --> 0:30:29.920
<v Speaker 2>on issues relating to climate change, the most radical energy

0:30:29.960 --> 0:30:33.920
<v Speaker 2>secretary in the Western world. And he is a figure

0:30:33.960 --> 0:30:36.080
<v Speaker 2>of the left. He's to the left of David his

0:30:36.120 --> 0:30:42.720
<v Speaker 2>brother Ed Miliband will be unquestionably a radical chancellor. However,

0:30:43.040 --> 0:30:48.440
<v Speaker 2>he spent years working with the Labour Chancellor, Gordon Brown,

0:30:49.000 --> 0:30:53.200
<v Speaker 2>who was in the Treasury for ten years, a long time,

0:30:54.240 --> 0:30:59.320
<v Speaker 2>and he too has an expedient streak. He was the

0:30:59.320 --> 0:31:03.280
<v Speaker 2>one who told Andy Burnham during the by election which

0:31:03.320 --> 0:31:07.320
<v Speaker 2>Burnham won, to say he will stick with the fiscal rules.

0:31:08.080 --> 0:31:12.040
<v Speaker 2>He is not just a kind of a left equivalent

0:31:12.120 --> 0:31:16.920
<v Speaker 2>of Liz Trusts. He can be quite cautious too, and pragmatic.

0:31:17.280 --> 0:31:21.920
<v Speaker 2>And although he has been this really radical climate change secretary,

0:31:22.240 --> 0:31:25.959
<v Speaker 2>very adamant that Britain is heading for net zero faster

0:31:26.080 --> 0:31:29.880
<v Speaker 2>than most other economies, he has had to accept a

0:31:29.960 --> 0:31:34.440
<v Speaker 2>whole range of compromises in that area. So I think

0:31:34.600 --> 0:31:36.760
<v Speaker 2>there would be quite a moment this decision as to

0:31:36.800 --> 0:31:38.640
<v Speaker 2>who Andy Burnham chooses.

0:31:38.920 --> 0:31:42.120
<v Speaker 1>But the markets could dive, I mean early. That could

0:31:42.120 --> 0:31:44.920
<v Speaker 1>be one of the early crises even that a Burnham

0:31:44.960 --> 0:31:46.040
<v Speaker 1>government might have to deal with.

0:31:46.120 --> 0:31:49.800
<v Speaker 2>That is what would terrify Andy Burnham. A market crisis.

0:31:50.160 --> 0:31:54.000
<v Speaker 2>But the alternative is risky, too riskier than it seems.

0:31:54.360 --> 0:31:58.440
<v Speaker 2>So he could appoint a very cautious, small c conservative chancellor.

0:31:59.160 --> 0:32:03.400
<v Speaker 2>The markets would be fine. At first, the media would say, ah, yeah,

0:32:03.440 --> 0:32:07.000
<v Speaker 2>this is a sign of a grown up government. But

0:32:07.120 --> 0:32:11.320
<v Speaker 2>the lesson of the past is that these Labour chancellors

0:32:11.360 --> 0:32:15.840
<v Speaker 2>who have sought to reassure it all tends to implode

0:32:15.920 --> 0:32:20.840
<v Speaker 2>in quite dramatic ways, Rachel Reeves being an example. So

0:32:21.040 --> 0:32:25.120
<v Speaker 2>the totemic policy for Rachel Reeves was cutting the winter

0:32:25.240 --> 0:32:30.240
<v Speaker 2>fuel allowance for pensioners in Britain and actually she did

0:32:30.240 --> 0:32:34.720
<v Speaker 2>it to appear strong and iron Chancellor, and it's gone

0:32:34.840 --> 0:32:38.280
<v Speaker 2>terribly wrong for her. So there are risks of caution

0:32:38.440 --> 0:32:38.960
<v Speaker 2>as well.

0:32:39.160 --> 0:32:42.400
<v Speaker 1>There's a broader thought in your work which is not

0:32:42.480 --> 0:32:45.560
<v Speaker 1>just about Labour chancellors. It's about Labour prime ministers and

0:32:45.600 --> 0:32:48.920
<v Speaker 1>how you think that they have the wind against them.

0:32:48.960 --> 0:32:51.880
<v Speaker 1>They when they come to office and therefore they have

0:32:52.000 --> 0:32:55.520
<v Speaker 1>something to prove and it leads them to make poor decisions.

0:32:55.560 --> 0:32:58.520
<v Speaker 1>And I think you have even written that having something

0:32:58.560 --> 0:33:01.480
<v Speaker 1>to prove was part of Tony Blair's decision to go

0:33:01.560 --> 0:33:02.920
<v Speaker 1>to war in Iraq.

0:33:03.400 --> 0:33:06.640
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, Tony Blair was brought up in the nineteen eighties

0:33:06.680 --> 0:33:09.920
<v Speaker 2>politically when Labour lost elections when they were seen as

0:33:10.000 --> 0:33:14.880
<v Speaker 2>anti American, soft on defense. He wasn't actually an expert

0:33:14.880 --> 0:33:18.640
<v Speaker 2>on the Middle East or certainly Iraq, but he was

0:33:18.680 --> 0:33:24.040
<v Speaker 2>a world expert on Labour and why they lost elections

0:33:24.080 --> 0:33:28.480
<v Speaker 2>in the nineteen eighties. And I think he was absolutely

0:33:28.640 --> 0:33:32.160
<v Speaker 2>determined to show he was a different sort of Labour

0:33:32.200 --> 0:33:35.760
<v Speaker 2>prime minister who would not break with the United States

0:33:36.160 --> 0:33:41.080
<v Speaker 2>on issues to do with defense and war. And when

0:33:41.280 --> 0:33:44.480
<v Speaker 2>he knew that President Bush was going to go into Iraq,

0:33:45.480 --> 0:33:47.520
<v Speaker 2>he knew he would be with him. He just had

0:33:47.520 --> 0:33:51.800
<v Speaker 2>to find a way of explaining why and how he

0:33:51.880 --> 0:33:55.840
<v Speaker 2>was going to do it, and with the irony that

0:33:56.000 --> 0:33:58.440
<v Speaker 2>by the end of his leadership he was seen by

0:33:58.520 --> 0:34:02.920
<v Speaker 2>many as a liar, untrustworthy when he was doing it

0:34:03.000 --> 0:34:06.000
<v Speaker 2>to show how trustworthy he could be as a Labour

0:34:06.440 --> 0:34:10.799
<v Speaker 2>prime minister. And it's always happened with Labour governments and chancellors.

0:34:10.840 --> 0:34:14.359
<v Speaker 2>Came back to the late nineteen twenties when Labour got in,

0:34:14.440 --> 0:34:17.799
<v Speaker 2>they had a chancellor who ached to show that he

0:34:17.840 --> 0:34:21.680
<v Speaker 2>could be trusted with the economy, so he followed very

0:34:21.719 --> 0:34:26.560
<v Speaker 2>strict economic rigid rules and the whole government imploded in

0:34:26.719 --> 0:34:27.400
<v Speaker 2>two years.

0:34:27.560 --> 0:34:30.160
<v Speaker 1>A lesson of all of this to a Labour leader

0:34:30.280 --> 0:34:31.480
<v Speaker 1>is be bold.

0:34:31.600 --> 0:34:38.759
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, yeah, with these added necessary qualifications. You have to

0:34:38.880 --> 0:34:42.680
<v Speaker 2>show why you're doing it. You have to work out

0:34:42.760 --> 0:34:46.880
<v Speaker 2>a message that gets through to a wider electorate and

0:34:47.000 --> 0:34:50.440
<v Speaker 2>convince them. But I think it's safer to be bold

0:34:51.239 --> 0:34:55.800
<v Speaker 2>than to seek to reassure and not do things because

0:34:55.840 --> 0:34:57.320
<v Speaker 2>it all goes wrong.

0:34:58.080 --> 0:35:01.200
<v Speaker 1>There's one philosophical point which I'm struggling with in the

0:35:01.239 --> 0:35:06.000
<v Speaker 1>Burnham philosophy as we seem to understand it. He has

0:35:06.040 --> 0:35:09.680
<v Speaker 1>this instinct to move power away from the center, to devolve,

0:35:09.880 --> 0:35:13.839
<v Speaker 1>to give more power to local areas in whatever configuration

0:35:13.960 --> 0:35:17.080
<v Speaker 1>they take. But then also, don't you have less control

0:35:17.120 --> 0:35:19.680
<v Speaker 1>on the ultimate result. If you really want to transform

0:35:19.680 --> 0:35:23.080
<v Speaker 1>the state into this productive state, doesn't that require a

0:35:23.200 --> 0:35:26.720
<v Speaker 1>command and control. It's a big, complex idea. You're essentially

0:35:26.800 --> 0:35:30.040
<v Speaker 1>sort of outsourcing it to local politicians.

0:35:30.160 --> 0:35:35.960
<v Speaker 2>You've brilliantly captured the risk, talk about risks and the dilemma,

0:35:36.800 --> 0:35:39.360
<v Speaker 2>and this is why devolution has much talked about and

0:35:39.480 --> 0:35:43.520
<v Speaker 2>rarely happens that you, as a new prime minister, want

0:35:43.560 --> 0:35:47.840
<v Speaker 2>to show that you are making a difference if you

0:35:48.120 --> 0:35:52.560
<v Speaker 2>give away that control to local areas, genuinely giving it away,

0:35:53.040 --> 0:35:56.040
<v Speaker 2>handing out money from the center and say over to you,

0:35:56.040 --> 0:35:59.520
<v Speaker 2>you decide how to spend it. You are giving in

0:35:59.600 --> 0:36:04.240
<v Speaker 2>modern Britain power to some councils run by Reform Nigel

0:36:04.239 --> 0:36:09.280
<v Speaker 2>Farag's party, in some cases councils that are badly run

0:36:09.360 --> 0:36:11.759
<v Speaker 2>by Labour or that because said they're not all well run.

0:36:12.400 --> 0:36:15.319
<v Speaker 2>And you stand there in the House of Commons and

0:36:15.360 --> 0:36:19.040
<v Speaker 2>have to say, I know it's gone wrong. Say I

0:36:19.040 --> 0:36:21.640
<v Speaker 2>don't know. In the northeast of England, nothing to do

0:36:21.760 --> 0:36:26.000
<v Speaker 2>with me. We've given away the power. And yet you

0:36:26.120 --> 0:36:28.120
<v Speaker 2>want to say, as a prime minister, look at the

0:36:28.160 --> 0:36:32.319
<v Speaker 2>difference I've made since I got into power. And that

0:36:32.600 --> 0:36:36.960
<v Speaker 2>is a conundrum. There's a really interesting phrase Tony Blair

0:36:37.000 --> 0:36:40.280
<v Speaker 2>once used before he got into power as Prime minister,

0:36:40.960 --> 0:36:44.160
<v Speaker 2>where he went to a local government huge conference somewhere

0:36:45.120 --> 0:36:48.160
<v Speaker 2>and he said, we are going to give you more

0:36:48.239 --> 0:36:53.480
<v Speaker 2>power as long as you use that power responsibly. Now,

0:36:53.520 --> 0:36:56.920
<v Speaker 2>the huge question implicit in that is who decides what

0:36:57.120 --> 0:37:01.480
<v Speaker 2>is responsible? Now? Andy Burnham seems to be suggesting they

0:37:01.520 --> 0:37:06.040
<v Speaker 2>can decide locally. How does he then show he personally

0:37:06.680 --> 0:37:10.440
<v Speaker 2>is being transformative. What levers do he and his people

0:37:11.120 --> 0:37:15.520
<v Speaker 2>use now? He would argue, now giving away power is

0:37:15.560 --> 0:37:21.000
<v Speaker 2>the transformation. Let's see whether he still believes that when

0:37:21.040 --> 0:37:24.880
<v Speaker 2>he is asked on various media outlets, what are you

0:37:24.960 --> 0:37:26.480
<v Speaker 2>doing about X, Y and Z.

0:37:27.080 --> 0:37:30.800
<v Speaker 1>Nigel Farage has definitely been an actor in this Labour drama,

0:37:30.840 --> 0:37:34.040
<v Speaker 1>hasn't he? In that it's the prospect of him on

0:37:34.239 --> 0:37:36.840
<v Speaker 1>course to be the next prime minister that has driven

0:37:37.480 --> 0:37:40.839
<v Speaker 1>many Labour and MPs to be as against armor as

0:37:40.880 --> 0:37:44.520
<v Speaker 1>they turned out. What do you think Andy Burnham's strategy

0:37:44.640 --> 0:37:49.359
<v Speaker 1>is for beating Faraj? Is it to portray him as

0:37:49.440 --> 0:37:52.960
<v Speaker 1>being beyond the pale? Is it more of a wooing

0:37:53.080 --> 0:37:57.160
<v Speaker 1>back the Reform voter, in which he possibly risks alienating

0:37:57.200 --> 0:37:58.760
<v Speaker 1>those who've gone to the Greens.

0:37:58.800 --> 0:38:02.120
<v Speaker 2>In the bi elect that you are, Reform is the

0:38:02.160 --> 0:38:07.279
<v Speaker 2>main opponent, and his strategy there was hardly to reference them,

0:38:07.440 --> 0:38:11.640
<v Speaker 2>certainly not to make attacks on Nigel Farage at all,

0:38:12.000 --> 0:38:14.799
<v Speaker 2>and at the moment there is plenty of ammunition to

0:38:14.840 --> 0:38:17.239
<v Speaker 2>attack Nigel for Arch, but he didn't do it. He

0:38:17.680 --> 0:38:22.880
<v Speaker 2>just focused on trying to attract a coalition of support

0:38:23.320 --> 0:38:25.920
<v Speaker 2>around him and I think he will begin with that

0:38:26.520 --> 0:38:31.479
<v Speaker 2>as Prime minister inevitably, certainly if Reform is the main

0:38:32.160 --> 0:38:35.600
<v Speaker 2>opposition by the time of a general election, that can't work.

0:38:35.640 --> 0:38:36.879
<v Speaker 2>He will have to.

0:38:36.600 --> 0:38:38.799
<v Speaker 1>Go on the attack. Go on the attack, but go

0:38:38.880 --> 0:38:41.000
<v Speaker 1>on the attack in what way? What would you advise

0:38:41.280 --> 0:38:48.800
<v Speaker 1>Is it to try and portray Forages racist or because

0:38:48.800 --> 0:38:51.920
<v Speaker 1>there's also another party now, a Restore which is to

0:38:52.040 --> 0:38:55.840
<v Speaker 1>the right of reform. What would you suggest is the

0:38:55.960 --> 0:38:56.600
<v Speaker 1>tack to take.

0:38:56.920 --> 0:39:01.120
<v Speaker 2>I think what he will try and do is become

0:39:01.360 --> 0:39:07.520
<v Speaker 2>the figure where all those who want to stop Farage

0:39:07.560 --> 0:39:13.400
<v Speaker 2>becoming Prime Minister feel okay about coalescing around. One of

0:39:13.440 --> 0:39:17.839
<v Speaker 2>the problems Keir Starmer had was that he had alienated

0:39:18.000 --> 0:39:20.040
<v Speaker 2>quite a few on the left who went to the

0:39:20.040 --> 0:39:25.680
<v Speaker 2>Greens and quite a few who have gone to Reform,

0:39:25.719 --> 0:39:30.960
<v Speaker 2>and Burnham will hope he's an attractive enough public figure

0:39:31.040 --> 0:39:35.080
<v Speaker 2>that they all feel okay about him. Now whether this

0:39:35.120 --> 0:39:37.960
<v Speaker 2>will work will partly depend on how successful he is,

0:39:38.040 --> 0:39:41.879
<v Speaker 2>of course, and if he's not, who knows what will

0:39:41.920 --> 0:39:44.720
<v Speaker 2>then follow. But you are right to say, I think

0:39:45.480 --> 0:39:50.360
<v Speaker 2>one of the many driving forces behind this astonishing rise

0:39:50.440 --> 0:39:52.239
<v Speaker 2>from not being in the House of Commons to being

0:39:52.280 --> 0:39:56.239
<v Speaker 2>Prime Minister is this, have we found a figure who

0:39:56.239 --> 0:40:02.920
<v Speaker 2>can stop Nigel Farage the other good communicator in British politics,

0:40:02.960 --> 0:40:06.760
<v Speaker 2>not brilliant, but good, and before Burnham came the best

0:40:06.960 --> 0:40:11.440
<v Speaker 2>amongst the party leaders and it was very interesting. In

0:40:11.480 --> 0:40:14.720
<v Speaker 2>the by election, Nigel Farage was there quite a lot,

0:40:15.080 --> 0:40:17.640
<v Speaker 2>and I've always thought what a great communicator he is.

0:40:18.160 --> 0:40:20.800
<v Speaker 2>He has the knack of appearing to have a conversation.

0:40:21.000 --> 0:40:23.320
<v Speaker 2>I think he was a bit rude to you famously,

0:40:23.520 --> 0:40:26.759
<v Speaker 2>I think when you interviewed him, but in that by

0:40:26.840 --> 0:40:29.279
<v Speaker 2>election a bit like actually when he was with you,

0:40:29.880 --> 0:40:33.279
<v Speaker 2>I thought if he looked ill at e somehow in

0:40:33.360 --> 0:40:37.200
<v Speaker 2>his slightly old fashioned double breasted suit, he couldn't hide

0:40:37.239 --> 0:40:41.640
<v Speaker 2>the fact that he was uneasy about their choice of candidate,

0:40:42.160 --> 0:40:46.160
<v Speaker 2>And I thought, is he such a brilliant communicator?

0:40:46.560 --> 0:40:49.200
<v Speaker 1>Nigel Farage has got this continuing relationship with Donald Trump,

0:40:49.280 --> 0:40:52.080
<v Speaker 1>and of course one area in which Andy Burnham is

0:40:52.120 --> 0:40:55.520
<v Speaker 1>completely untested is foreign policy. How do you think he'll

0:40:56.120 --> 0:40:58.239
<v Speaker 1>fare do you think his well, how will he deal

0:40:58.239 --> 0:41:00.560
<v Speaker 1>with Donald Trump? Let's just get to that, because Trump's

0:41:00.560 --> 0:41:04.400
<v Speaker 1>already been quite dismissive. Yeah, he's a mayor of a town.

0:41:04.600 --> 0:41:07.480
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, yeah, very dismissive about who he sees as a

0:41:07.560 --> 0:41:11.880
<v Speaker 2>rather pathetic figure. It's not at all unusual for a

0:41:11.880 --> 0:41:14.719
<v Speaker 2>British Prime minister new to the job to have no

0:41:14.960 --> 0:41:20.160
<v Speaker 2>feel for foreign affairs whatsoever. That applied to Margaret Thatcher,

0:41:20.320 --> 0:41:23.960
<v Speaker 2>who formed a very close relationship with Reagan. It applied

0:41:24.000 --> 0:41:26.320
<v Speaker 2>to Tony Blair, and we've talked about how foreign affairs

0:41:26.400 --> 0:41:33.120
<v Speaker 2>sucked him up. America, Clinton, Bush, Iraq, Europe. None of

0:41:33.160 --> 0:41:37.080
<v Speaker 2>them came in with any feel whatsoever foreign affairs, and

0:41:37.120 --> 0:41:43.200
<v Speaker 2>then foreign affairs absolutely sucked up their energy and attention.

0:41:43.840 --> 0:41:46.839
<v Speaker 2>And this will happen to Andy Burnham, so he will

0:41:46.880 --> 0:41:49.520
<v Speaker 2>have to adapt quickly. I think we will have to

0:41:49.520 --> 0:41:50.120
<v Speaker 2>wait and see.

0:41:50.520 --> 0:41:53.720
<v Speaker 1>What would you advise him though? Would you say with Trump?

0:41:53.760 --> 0:41:56.799
<v Speaker 1>With Trump, be bold as your advice is in other

0:41:56.840 --> 0:41:58.280
<v Speaker 1>areas well.

0:41:58.920 --> 0:42:03.120
<v Speaker 2>If you look back at how Starmer really went out

0:42:03.160 --> 0:42:05.600
<v Speaker 2>of his way to woo Trump, he got another state

0:42:05.760 --> 0:42:08.880
<v Speaker 2>visit and he hasn't got much out to put it

0:42:08.960 --> 0:42:12.279
<v Speaker 2>at best. But I think what Burnham will try and

0:42:12.360 --> 0:42:15.640
<v Speaker 2>do is I think there will be a renewed focus

0:42:15.680 --> 0:42:19.719
<v Speaker 2>on Britain's relationship with Europe, which, to give Starmer credit for,

0:42:20.000 --> 0:42:23.319
<v Speaker 2>there was this what they call a reset. Relations are

0:42:23.400 --> 0:42:26.960
<v Speaker 2>much better now with Britain and other European leaders. I

0:42:27.000 --> 0:42:31.040
<v Speaker 2>think Burnham will want to intensify that. We know that

0:42:31.080 --> 0:42:34.880
<v Speaker 2>he is passionately pro European and he has said he

0:42:34.920 --> 0:42:37.960
<v Speaker 2>wants Britain to go back into the European Union in

0:42:38.040 --> 0:42:41.040
<v Speaker 2>his lifetime. I mean, he's quite young, so that's not

0:42:41.080 --> 0:42:44.120
<v Speaker 2>a big specific commitment, but I think there will be

0:42:44.160 --> 0:42:46.640
<v Speaker 2>quite a lot of focus on that. But yeah, he

0:42:46.680 --> 0:42:49.680
<v Speaker 2>will try. He will be very nice to Trump. He

0:42:49.680 --> 0:42:53.480
<v Speaker 2>can be charming, but he's learned how to be a

0:42:53.560 --> 0:42:58.400
<v Speaker 2>rather charming public figure. And when they have one of

0:42:58.440 --> 0:43:02.040
<v Speaker 2>their famous meetings on that White House sofa, I think

0:43:02.080 --> 0:43:04.560
<v Speaker 2>he will manage that absolutely.

0:43:04.480 --> 0:43:09.560
<v Speaker 1>Fine, Steve. Finally, he clearly has the support of scores

0:43:09.560 --> 0:43:11.319
<v Speaker 1>of MPs on his own side. We could see that

0:43:11.400 --> 0:43:13.600
<v Speaker 1>the moment he walked into Westminster and they're all gathered

0:43:13.600 --> 0:43:18.040
<v Speaker 1>there to receive him. But we also know that this

0:43:18.080 --> 0:43:20.520
<v Speaker 1>is a pretty fickle group of MPs. Isn't it like

0:43:20.560 --> 0:43:22.359
<v Speaker 1>a lot of them were elected two years ago, they

0:43:22.440 --> 0:43:24.960
<v Speaker 1>turned on the man who led them to that victory

0:43:25.440 --> 0:43:28.759
<v Speaker 1>pretty swiftly. Do you think that could be something he

0:43:28.800 --> 0:43:31.600
<v Speaker 1>can't take for granted? Having his own MPs on side,

0:43:31.640 --> 0:43:33.799
<v Speaker 1>you tried to do something big, there's loads of people

0:43:33.800 --> 0:43:35.360
<v Speaker 1>who come to you and say why you can't do it?

0:43:35.440 --> 0:43:39.560
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, But viewers and listeners who don't know. He arrived

0:43:39.719 --> 0:43:42.760
<v Speaker 2>in Parliament the monday after he won this by election

0:43:43.320 --> 0:43:46.640
<v Speaker 2>and hundreds of Labour MPs gathered to be photographed with him.

0:43:47.000 --> 0:43:49.360
<v Speaker 2>And I saw some of those Labour MPs and I thought,

0:43:49.560 --> 0:43:51.800
<v Speaker 2>I'm tempting to tell Andy Burnham what they were saying

0:43:51.800 --> 0:43:56.160
<v Speaker 2>about him just months ago. They weren't all Avid fans then.

0:43:56.400 --> 0:43:59.440
<v Speaker 2>And you are right, this is a very hard parliamentary

0:43:59.520 --> 0:44:01.840
<v Speaker 2>Labour part to manage. There are a lot of labour

0:44:01.920 --> 0:44:07.319
<v Speaker 2>MPs with seats with very tiny majorities, and if it

0:44:07.440 --> 0:44:11.640
<v Speaker 2>goes wrong, they will turn the way in British politics

0:44:11.680 --> 0:44:16.080
<v Speaker 2>and in other countries too, in America, so the authority

0:44:16.080 --> 0:44:18.680
<v Speaker 2>of a president, the authority of a Prime minister is

0:44:18.840 --> 0:44:22.359
<v Speaker 2>partly dependent on the opinion pots and whether they are

0:44:22.400 --> 0:44:27.120
<v Speaker 2>doing well. Kir Starmer lost authority ultimately because Labour were

0:44:27.160 --> 0:44:31.440
<v Speaker 2>being slaughtered in elections and in the opinion pots. So

0:44:31.800 --> 0:44:36.279
<v Speaker 2>part of Burnham's authority is Labour MP's hope he's going

0:44:36.320 --> 0:44:40.399
<v Speaker 2>to be popular, and if that isn't the case, I'm

0:44:40.440 --> 0:44:43.600
<v Speaker 2>sure he'll get a honeymoon. A lot of them will

0:44:43.640 --> 0:44:48.359
<v Speaker 2>turn and there are specific policy areas where he will

0:44:48.360 --> 0:44:52.640
<v Speaker 2>have to engage with them. Welfare, reform being one example.

0:44:53.120 --> 0:44:55.200
<v Speaker 2>But I think he will be quite good at engaging

0:44:55.440 --> 0:44:57.960
<v Speaker 2>with them. But yeah, you are right to point out

0:44:58.000 --> 0:45:03.560
<v Speaker 2>that MPs increasingly are fickle in all parties they reform.

0:45:03.760 --> 0:45:07.960
<v Speaker 2>People will turn on Farage, Conservatives on their leaders if

0:45:08.560 --> 0:45:14.520
<v Speaker 2>they are unpopular. So the stakes for Burnham to stay.

0:45:15.200 --> 0:45:20.160
<v Speaker 2>He's at the moment Labour's most popular politician. He needs

0:45:20.200 --> 0:45:22.640
<v Speaker 2>to keep that position because that's from where a lot

0:45:22.680 --> 0:45:24.360
<v Speaker 2>of his authority is derived.

0:45:24.600 --> 0:45:27.279
<v Speaker 1>And he needs to make Nigel Farage less popular. He

0:45:27.880 --> 0:45:31.480
<v Speaker 1>needs those opinion polls to turn the ones which put

0:45:31.960 --> 0:45:33.520
<v Speaker 1>on calls to be the next prime minister.

0:45:33.640 --> 0:45:37.000
<v Speaker 2>That is the context reform of being ahead and opinion

0:45:37.000 --> 0:45:40.879
<v Speaker 2>polls in Britain for a long time now, and part

0:45:40.880 --> 0:45:43.960
<v Speaker 2>of his task is to turn that round. And if

0:45:43.960 --> 0:45:46.120
<v Speaker 2>he pulls it off, he will continue to have authority.

0:45:46.840 --> 0:45:49.360
<v Speaker 2>But a lot of MPs won't get jobs in the

0:45:49.360 --> 0:45:53.200
<v Speaker 2>Burnham administration, so they'll won't be thrilled and things. It's

0:45:53.520 --> 0:45:58.320
<v Speaker 2>very hard to manage a parliamentary party in a modern

0:45:58.320 --> 0:46:01.440
<v Speaker 2>era where loyalty leadership is not a given.

0:46:01.840 --> 0:46:03.879
<v Speaker 1>Are you looking forward to this period? Do you feel

0:46:03.920 --> 0:46:06.279
<v Speaker 1>as a commentator you've got more of a spring in

0:46:06.320 --> 0:46:07.160
<v Speaker 1>your step.

0:46:07.480 --> 0:46:12.040
<v Speaker 2>Well, politics is endlessly fascinating because it's human beings trying

0:46:12.040 --> 0:46:15.000
<v Speaker 2>to do things that you would otherwise determine by war.

0:46:15.760 --> 0:46:18.239
<v Speaker 2>But yeah, I think we're in an extraordinary period and

0:46:18.239 --> 0:46:22.520
<v Speaker 2>because it's moving so fast, you can lose how astonishing

0:46:22.600 --> 0:46:26.759
<v Speaker 2>it is. You know, Labour have never dumped a leader, never,

0:46:27.880 --> 0:46:34.600
<v Speaker 2>and here it is doing so in dramatic circumstances. So yeah,

0:46:34.640 --> 0:46:36.600
<v Speaker 2>it's going to be absolutely.

0:46:36.320 --> 0:46:39.600
<v Speaker 1>Compelling, interesting times. Steve Richards, thank you.

0:46:39.560 --> 0:46:40.799
<v Speaker 2>So much, Thank you very much.

0:46:45.239 --> 0:46:47.840
<v Speaker 1>And that's where we left it this time. My notes,

0:46:47.840 --> 0:46:50.840
<v Speaker 1>which are at Bloomberg dot com forward Slash Michelle, go

0:46:50.960 --> 0:46:54.319
<v Speaker 1>from Donald Trump's comments on Andy Burnham to what might

0:46:54.400 --> 0:46:58.040
<v Speaker 1>happen next with Nigel Farage, and of course you can

0:46:58.080 --> 0:47:01.359
<v Speaker 1>listen back to his conversation with me from October here

0:47:01.400 --> 0:47:06.200
<v Speaker 1>in the feed and so to the team producers Jessica

0:47:06.239 --> 0:47:10.040
<v Speaker 1>Beck and Chris Martlew, video producer Andy Hayward, with audio

0:47:10.120 --> 0:47:13.440
<v Speaker 1>mixing this week by Richard Ward. Our social media is

0:47:13.480 --> 0:47:17.520
<v Speaker 1>by Alex Morgan and the music is by Bart Warshaw.

0:47:17.680 --> 0:47:21.720
<v Speaker 1>The executive producer is Louisa Lewis, and at Bloomberg Weekend

0:47:21.960 --> 0:47:27.520
<v Speaker 1>thanks to Brendan Francis Newnam and our executive editor, Katherine Bell,

0:47:27.680 --> 0:47:30.279
<v Speaker 1>until next time. Goodbye,