WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene:  Sam Stovall & Doug Irwin

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, single, best idea. We're

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<v Speaker 1>out there. I'm getting comfortable with YouTube podcasts. I really

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<v Speaker 1>like the way they lay it out is about conversation.

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<v Speaker 1>Today was extraordinary conversation. We could do a half an hour,

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<v Speaker 1>forty five minute single best idea. We're not going to

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<v Speaker 1>do that. Let's start off at seven am. Robert Stowball

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<v Speaker 1>was legendary in my ute, like literally the house would

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<v Speaker 1>stop when mister Stovall came on. His son, Sam Stoveall,

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<v Speaker 1>has carried the torch forward with wonderful work. It's CFRA.

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<v Speaker 1>They were acclaimed for three star, four star, five star

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<v Speaker 1>stocks and the duration, the persistency of this bull market,

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<v Speaker 1>Sam Stovall CFRA.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, it's done exceptionally well, up more than fifty percent

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<v Speaker 2>in the first two years, and the third year of

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<v Speaker 2>bull market is actually pretty challenging. Of all eleven bull

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<v Speaker 2>markets that celebrated their second birthday, the average twelve month

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<v Speaker 2>gain in the third year was two point two percent,

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<v Speaker 2>and that's because three of those eleven slipped into new

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<v Speaker 2>bear markets before the year was out. Two more posted declines,

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<v Speaker 2>though not enough to be tagged as new bear markets,

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<v Speaker 2>three more posted gains of six percent or lower, and

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<v Speaker 2>only twice did we have or three times did we

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<v Speaker 2>have double digit advances. So I would tend to say

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<v Speaker 2>the odds favor a challenging third year.

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<v Speaker 1>Sam stoveall there was CFIA. We heard some other themes

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<v Speaker 1>as well. Liz Ane Saunders with a little bit of

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<v Speaker 1>that nervousness out there, but we talked a lot about

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<v Speaker 1>all time highs with our people today. Amy was Silverman.

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<v Speaker 1>It was just absolutely on fire over the derivative overlay,

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<v Speaker 1>the signals from the four cross moments, if you will,

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<v Speaker 1>into the equity market, to show you the process of surveillance.

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<v Speaker 1>We're booking twenty four to seven and we book off

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<v Speaker 1>the news. We booked people days ahead, sometimes weeks ahead,

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<v Speaker 1>but we had the tariff news here and we just

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<v Speaker 1>efforted out of Dartmouth College, the giant on free ter a.

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<v Speaker 1>Douglas Irwin out of Columbia with Jaggnesh Bugwadi years ago

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<v Speaker 1>wrote a definitive book pushing thirty years ago called Against

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<v Speaker 1>the Tide. It was so good then, it's still good now.

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<v Speaker 1>I put it on Twitter today. Can't say enough about

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<v Speaker 1>Against the Tide. Late in our conversation with Professor Irwin,

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<v Speaker 1>I talked about Robert Littheiser, widely attributed with Trump trade

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<v Speaker 1>practices and Lightheiser, in the beginning of his book is

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<v Speaker 1>adamant about the collapse of his Northeastern Ohio childhood. Here

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<v Speaker 1>is Douglas Irwin, with the respect for Northeastern Ohio and

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<v Speaker 1>Robert Leithheiser.

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<v Speaker 3>I guess I would say two things. First of all,

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<v Speaker 3>Ohio is not the US economy written large. The South

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<v Speaker 3>has attracted a lot of manufacturing precisely because of the

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<v Speaker 3>high tax, anti business attitudes of the rust belt states,

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<v Speaker 3>and they've got to rethink how they compete and how

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<v Speaker 3>they position themselves the other US states, not via a

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<v Speaker 3>relative to the rest of the world as well. And

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<v Speaker 3>second of all, the tariffs, which he's very much in

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<v Speaker 3>favor of, are a very blunt instrument. They might help

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<v Speaker 3>out certain steel producers in Ohio, but they have negative

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<v Speaker 3>effects on steel manufacturers or manufacturers that use steal components

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<v Speaker 3>elsewhere in the country, so it doesn't help out manufacturing overall.

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<v Speaker 3>There's always a trade offer. You're going to hurt some

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<v Speaker 3>and help others, and you've got to be aware that, yes,

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<v Speaker 3>you might want to help out those Ohio steel workers,

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<v Speaker 3>but you have to worry about auto workers elsewhere too

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<v Speaker 3>when their cost go up when you put on steel tariffs.

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<v Speaker 1>Doug Irwin of Dartmouth, what a program up there with

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<v Speaker 1>David Blanchflower, the Tuck School and all just really good

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<v Speaker 1>economics into the holiday week tomorrow, tons of economic data.

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<v Speaker 1>We'll be doing that at seven am into the important

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<v Speaker 1>eight to thirty data as well. On your commute across

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<v Speaker 2>The LAS