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Speaker 1: Today was extraordinary conversation. We could do a half an hour,
Speaker 1: forty five minute single best idea. We're not going to
Speaker 1: do that. Let's start off at seven am. Robert Stowball
Speaker 1: was legendary in my ute, like literally the house would
Speaker 1: stop when mister Stovall came on. His son, Sam Stoveall,
Speaker 1: has carried the torch forward with wonderful work. It's CFRA.
Speaker 1: They were acclaimed for three star, four star, five star
Speaker 1: stocks and the duration, the persistency of this bull market,
Speaker 1: Sam Stovall CFRA.
Speaker 2: Well, it's done exceptionally well, up more than fifty percent
Speaker 2: in the first two years, and the third year of
Speaker 2: bull market is actually pretty challenging. Of all eleven bull
Speaker 2: markets that celebrated their second birthday, the average twelve month
Speaker 2: gain in the third year was two point two percent,
Speaker 2: and that's because three of those eleven slipped into new
Speaker 2: bear markets before the year was out. Two more posted declines,
Speaker 2: though not enough to be tagged as new bear markets,
Speaker 2: three more posted gains of six percent or lower, and
Speaker 2: only twice did we have or three times did we
Speaker 2: have double digit advances. So I would tend to say
Speaker 2: the odds favor a challenging third year.
Speaker 1: Sam stoveall there was CFIA. We heard some other themes
Speaker 1: as well. Liz Ane Saunders with a little bit of
Speaker 1: that nervousness out there, but we talked a lot about
Speaker 1: all time highs with our people today. Amy was Silverman.
Speaker 1: It was just absolutely on fire over the derivative overlay,
Speaker 1: the signals from the four cross moments, if you will,
Speaker 1: into the equity market, to show you the process of surveillance.
Speaker 1: We're booking twenty four to seven and we book off
Speaker 1: the news. We booked people days ahead, sometimes weeks ahead,
Speaker 1: but we had the tariff news here and we just
Speaker 1: efforted out of Dartmouth College, the giant on free ter a.
Speaker 1: Douglas Irwin out of Columbia with Jaggnesh Bugwadi years ago
Speaker 1: wrote a definitive book pushing thirty years ago called Against
Speaker 1: the Tide. It was so good then, it's still good now.
Speaker 1: I put it on Twitter today. Can't say enough about
Speaker 1: Against the Tide. Late in our conversation with Professor Irwin,
Speaker 1: I talked about Robert Littheiser, widely attributed with Trump trade
Speaker 1: practices and Lightheiser, in the beginning of his book is
Speaker 1: adamant about the collapse of his Northeastern Ohio childhood. Here
Speaker 1: is Douglas Irwin, with the respect for Northeastern Ohio and
Speaker 1: Robert Leithheiser.
Speaker 3: I guess I would say two things. First of all,
Speaker 3: Ohio is not the US economy written large. The South
Speaker 3: has attracted a lot of manufacturing precisely because of the
Speaker 3: high tax, anti business attitudes of the rust belt states,
Speaker 3: and they've got to rethink how they compete and how
Speaker 3: they position themselves the other US states, not via a
Speaker 3: relative to the rest of the world as well. And
Speaker 3: second of all, the tariffs, which he's very much in
Speaker 3: favor of, are a very blunt instrument. They might help
Speaker 3: out certain steel producers in Ohio, but they have negative
Speaker 3: effects on steel manufacturers or manufacturers that use steal components
Speaker 3: elsewhere in the country, so it doesn't help out manufacturing overall.
Speaker 3: There's always a trade offer. You're going to hurt some
Speaker 3: and help others, and you've got to be aware that, yes,
Speaker 3: you might want to help out those Ohio steel workers,
Speaker 3: but you have to worry about auto workers elsewhere too
Speaker 3: when their cost go up when you put on steel tariffs.
Speaker 1: Doug Irwin of Dartmouth, what a program up there with
Speaker 1: David Blanchflower, the Tuck School and all just really good
Speaker 1: economics into the holiday week tomorrow, tons of economic data.
Speaker 1: We'll be doing that at seven am into the important
Speaker 1: eight to thirty data as well. On your commute across
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