Speaker 1: Global business news twenty four hours a day. That's Bloomberg
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Speaker 1: this is a Bloomberg Business flash and I'm Cameron Moscow.
Speaker 1: Global stocks are well, they're little change to lower now
Speaker 1: as slump and Chinese exports were dragging metals lower and
Speaker 1: brought equities to a five day winning streak. Brought that
Speaker 1: winning streak to a halt. Right now. The decks in Germany,
Speaker 1: though it is little change. The cat embarrass is down
Speaker 1: a tenth of upper set, and the FT one hundred
Speaker 1: is down two tenths per cent. SNP EVENI futures are
Speaker 1: down six points DOWNI Mini futures down thirty seven, and
Speaker 1: Nasdaki mini futures are down about fourteen and your treasury
Speaker 1: U sixteen thirty seconds. The yield one point eight four
Speaker 1: per set nine x screwed oil up nine tenths per
Speaker 1: cent or thirty five cents to thirty twenty four. A
Speaker 1: barrel comes gold is up seven tenths per center eight
Speaker 1: dollar sixty cents to twelve seventy two seventy and ounce
Speaker 1: the euros at a dollar ten nineteen again one thirteen
Speaker 1: point oh nine sena Fee and Mark planning to end
Speaker 1: a two day aca long joint venture to sell vaccines
Speaker 1: in Europe as revenue from the product's dwindles. Small business
Speaker 1: optimism declining in February, according to the National Federation of
Speaker 1: Independent Business. The organization's monthly Small Business Optimism Index felt
Speaker 1: the Naughty two point nine last month, compared to ninety
Speaker 1: three point nine in January, and Dick Sporting Goods down
Speaker 1: almost five percent in early trading after posting disappointing fourth
Speaker 1: quarter results and providing a forecast for the current year
Speaker 1: that trailed analysts estimates. That's a Bloomberg business flash, Tom
Speaker 1: and Mike Karen, thanks so much. It is on Wall Street.
Speaker 1: The following is from Bloomberg View. Opinions and commentary from
Speaker 1: Bloomberg columnists. I'm justin Fox, a columnist from Bloomberg View.
Speaker 1: Wouldn't it be fun to work at a company where
Speaker 1: nobody is the boss? For lots of people? Apparently not.
Speaker 1: Online shoe retailer Zappos fell off of Fortune magazines hundred
Speaker 1: Best Companies To Work For list last week after switching
Speaker 1: over to a hierarchy free management system called Holocracy, and
Speaker 1: digital publisher Medium announced Friday that has decided to ditch
Speaker 1: holocracy because quote, the system had begun to exert a
Speaker 1: small but persistent tax on our effectiveness unquote. In holocricy,
Speaker 1: employees inhabit roles that give them full responsibility for some
Speaker 1: slice of what an organization does. There's a process for
Speaker 1: resolving conflicts and a framework for meetings to keep things
Speaker 1: moving along, But there aren't supposed to be our managers
Speaker 1: or hierarchies. It all sounds very democratic, except that it's
Speaker 1: the bosses such as Zappos CEO Tony Say, who usually
Speaker 1: pushed their companies to adopt delocracy, and it's the rank
Speaker 1: and file who complain and resist. Why is that? Well,
Speaker 1: maybe it's because being a boss is hard. There are
Speaker 1: lots of tough decisions and often little credit. Really, who'd
Speaker 1: want to do that? I'm Justin Fox, a columnist for
Speaker 1: Bloomberg View. For more Bloomberg opinion and commentary, please go
Speaker 1: to Bloomberg View dot com or view go on the
Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal. This has been Bloomberg View and Bloomberg View commentary.
Speaker 1: It could be heard our weekdays. I'm Bloomberg Radio. March
Speaker 1: sixteenth an important date. Michael brings us up to speed
Speaker 1: on where we stand with our good guest. Federal But
Speaker 1: Market Committee holds its next meeting in At one point,
Speaker 1: people were fairly convinced it was going to be the
Speaker 1: next date for a rate increase in the United States.
Speaker 1: Now looks like that's off the table from what we're
Speaker 1: hearing from Fed officials. But uh, Marks Andy from Moody's Analytics,
Speaker 1: he's the chief economist there. Let me ask you this.
Speaker 1: In December, the FED put out its survey of economic projections.
Speaker 1: What they suggested was going to happen to the economy
Speaker 1: by the fourth quarter of this year growth of about
Speaker 1: two percent, unemployment rate of four point seven percent, and inflation,
Speaker 1: uh core inflation of one point six percent. Well, we've
Speaker 1: got inflation above that number. Unemployment is just above four
Speaker 1: point seven percent at four point nine and we've got
Speaker 1: growth of about two percent. So uh, first fall. Those
Speaker 1: who said the FED was crazy and making those forecasts
Speaker 1: don't seem to be correct. What about those who say
Speaker 1: the Fed should not be raising rates. Well, I think
Speaker 1: they'll pause in at this upcoming meeting just because of
Speaker 1: the turmoil and financial markets since the beginning of the year,
Speaker 1: and they'll want to see what the fallout on the
Speaker 1: economy of that has been. I mean, it looks like
Speaker 1: the fallout at least from the data is very modest.
Speaker 1: Can't can't really see it. But it's still too early
Speaker 1: to conclude that there won't be some impacts. I think
Speaker 1: they'll wait, but you know, by the June meeting, and
Speaker 1: I think they'll have all the evidence they need that
Speaker 1: it's time to raise rates and continue to normalize policy.
Speaker 1: The the economy is still creating, lots of jobs, unemployees
Speaker 1: still declining, and inflation is uh, you know, actual inflation
Speaker 1: has actually picked has picked up, and there's one point,
Speaker 1: as you said, one point seven percent, which isn't too
Speaker 1: far away from their targets. So I think we're in
Speaker 1: for a series of rate hikes late this year going
Speaker 1: into Well if that's the case, then doesn't the market
Speaker 1: have a heart attack over that idea? Yeah, they have
Speaker 1: some adjustments to do. Yeah, because the markets last I look,
Speaker 1: they're pricing and maybe one great hike this year one
Speaker 1: and a half. I would expect three and the series
Speaker 1: next year. So yeah, I think the markets will have
Speaker 1: to adjust and there will be more volatility and financial markets.
Speaker 1: I think what we've seen so far this year is
Speaker 1: is going to continue on and something we will have
Speaker 1: to get used. Doesn't that then pulls a conundrum for
Speaker 1: the Fed. They don't want to raise rates now because
Speaker 1: of volatility, which means they have to raise rates more
Speaker 1: later which will cause volatility. Doesn't that cause them must
Speaker 1: be talking to Mark Sandy to have a question like that. No,
Speaker 1: because I don't think as we will see that it's
Speaker 1: going to have a major impact on the economy. You know,
Speaker 1: markets go up down all around sideways, and you know,
Speaker 1: at the end of the day, we're still creating two
Speaker 1: hundreds thousand jobs per months. The economy is moving forward.
Speaker 1: So uh, you know, the finance terminal is very uncomfortable,
Speaker 1: you know, particularly for people on Wall Street who observing this,
Speaker 1: and you know, wealthy individuals watching their their screen. But
Speaker 1: you know, for most Americans, I think it's you know, sideshow. Mark,
Speaker 1: we call the screen of Bloomberg terminal. You're supposed to
Speaker 1: yeah I should, yeah, you know, and well versed with
Speaker 1: that Bloomberg terminal as you know. But but guys like
Speaker 1: you now were the unemployment rate, as you mentioned the
Speaker 1: U six earlier, were at an extraordian important I did
Speaker 1: a chart yesterday showing how rare sub four point zero
Speaker 1: percent unemployment is. Jonathan tweets out to us this morning,
Speaker 1: Dr Zany and he says, drs Andy is ignoring the
Speaker 1: fact that most new jobs are minimum wage. And secondly,
Speaker 1: excuse me, over ninety million people have quit looking for
Speaker 1: a job. Give us an update on this real belief
Speaker 1: in America that most of the new jobs aren't quote
Speaker 1: unquote full time good jobs. Help us that. Yeah, that's
Speaker 1: just you know, I'm perplexed by it. It's just wrong.
Speaker 1: I mean, when you create jobs per month, and again
Speaker 1: that's we've been doing that. Plus you create all kinds
Speaker 1: of jobs, yes, low paying retail, leisure, hospitality, but construction
Speaker 1: jobs were creating a lots of them. They're they're all
Speaker 1: middle paying, you know, K three twelve, education jobs, lots
Speaker 1: of those their middle paying, and a lot of high
Speaker 1: paying jobs and professional services, services, healthcare. So it's all okay.
Speaker 1: Is the distinction the perceived or expected mobility among those
Speaker 1: groups that a lot of America things they can advance
Speaker 1: or their kids can advance to that better place. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm on board with that. I think that's exactly right.
Speaker 1: And it goes to the inks that we're being expressed politically,
Speaker 1: going back to our father Coughlin discussion, I think that's
Speaker 1: exactly right, but I would make I would suggest that
Speaker 1: as the economy titans and in a year from now,
Speaker 1: our problem isn't gonna be unemployment. It's going to be
Speaker 1: a lack of labor. And at that point we're gonna
Speaker 1: see wage growth pick up for folks at all parts
Speaker 1: of the income distribution. It's a long time in coming,
Speaker 1: and we should be doing a lot of things to
Speaker 1: address this issue from a policy perspective, but the economy
Speaker 1: is going to be right in in a good enough
Speaker 1: place that everyone more people are going to benefit, even
Speaker 1: though it's at the bottom part of the income distribution.
Speaker 1: Well as the argument that Stanley Fisher was making yesterday
Speaker 1: that the Phillips curve isn't broken, it's just slow. It's
Speaker 1: alive and well, it's very obvious. It's very clear. You
Speaker 1: can look at you know, wage growth across the industry
Speaker 1: relative to the strength of those industries. You can see.
Speaker 1: You can look at it regionally, look at which parts
Speaker 1: of the country are doing well and not. You can
Speaker 1: see in wage what you can see the internationally. The
Speaker 1: Phillips curve works and has always worked in it is
Speaker 1: working now and we'll we'll see it, you know, it's
Speaker 1: already happening well in in that case by the end
Speaker 1: of the year, and this will will come full circle
Speaker 1: on Father Coughlin when it comes time for people to vote.
Speaker 1: What are they going to be thinking about the economy
Speaker 1: the second Tuesday in November. Well, you know, I do
Speaker 1: think that people will uh. I think in general that
Speaker 1: the establishment, the political middle will hold. I'd be surprised.
Speaker 1: That's what happened in the thirties and the depression when
Speaker 1: we have Father Coffin. I think that's what's gonna happen.
Speaker 1: Just go around. But you know, I'm sure it's going
Speaker 1: to be a close election no matter who's running. But
Speaker 1: a year or two from now, I think the economy
Speaker 1: and the political environment and backdrop will will be very different.
Speaker 1: Dr Sandy thank you so much. Mark Sandy Wood. He's
Speaker 1: analytic and he has been a resilient optimists on the
Speaker 1: American economic experience. Mike, I think it's fascinating. You know,
Speaker 1: you talk about Chris with with Nancy Reagan dying, you
Speaker 1: talk about the the arch ring and concept of mourning
Speaker 1: in America. When we have people talking about a new
Speaker 1: morning in America, the mail just lights up. Yeah, you know,
Speaker 1: I don't have an opinion, folks, I do, but I
Speaker 1: don't let it out. The mail just lights up. That's
Speaker 1: a fact. That's a fact. Well, um, there are a
Speaker 1: lot of people who don't feel that we're there yet. Yeah. Also,
Speaker 1: which explains the politics. There's politics is pretty ugly. But
Speaker 1: I think Mark maybe right, and there's an awful lot
Speaker 1: of weight to the political system and to upend it totally.
Speaker 1: I mean we saw remember um uh back in and
Speaker 1: Russ Parole was leading in the polls at one point
Speaker 1: and he was a non factor by the end. So
Speaker 1: let's see what happens. We got to get down the road.
Speaker 1: We think uh Brett bare and uh Chuck God for
Speaker 1: their perspective as well. Of course, a lot of this
Speaker 1: what we do economics, finance, investment, international relations, filtering in
Speaker 1: to your weekend reading and your political consideration as we
Speaker 1: moved through the election cycle. I'm Bloomberg Radio. We do that.
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