WEBVTT - Zandi: we're not measuring GDP correctly 0:00:02.480 --> 0:00:05.840 Global business news twenty four hours a day. That's Bloomberg 0:00:05.920 --> 0:00:09.000 dot Com, the radio plus mobile LAPP and on your radio, 0:00:09.280 --> 0:00:13.360 this is a Bloomberg Business flash and I'm Cameron Moscow. 0:00:13.440 --> 0:00:17.640 Global stocks are well, they're little change to lower now 0:00:17.680 --> 0:00:20.200 as slump and Chinese exports were dragging metals lower and 0:00:20.200 --> 0:00:23.319 brought equities to a five day winning streak. Brought that 0:00:23.400 --> 0:00:26.320 winning streak to a halt. Right now. The decks in Germany, 0:00:26.320 --> 0:00:28.520 though it is little change. The cat embarrass is down 0:00:28.560 --> 0:00:30.560 a tenth of upper set, and the FT one hundred 0:00:30.640 --> 0:00:34.040 is down two tenths per cent. SNP EVENI futures are 0:00:34.080 --> 0:00:36.680 down six points DOWNI Mini futures down thirty seven, and 0:00:36.800 --> 0:00:40.080 Nasdaki mini futures are down about fourteen and your treasury 0:00:40.120 --> 0:00:42.360 U sixteen thirty seconds. The yield one point eight four 0:00:42.440 --> 0:00:44.839 per set nine x screwed oil up nine tenths per 0:00:44.840 --> 0:00:47.240 cent or thirty five cents to thirty twenty four. A 0:00:47.320 --> 0:00:50.640 barrel comes gold is up seven tenths per center eight 0:00:50.640 --> 0:00:53.480 dollar sixty cents to twelve seventy two seventy and ounce 0:00:53.800 --> 0:00:56.520 the euros at a dollar ten nineteen again one thirteen 0:00:56.560 --> 0:00:59.560 point oh nine sena Fee and Mark planning to end 0:00:59.600 --> 0:01:02.200 a two day aca long joint venture to sell vaccines 0:01:02.200 --> 0:01:05.520 in Europe as revenue from the product's dwindles. Small business 0:01:05.560 --> 0:01:08.920 optimism declining in February, according to the National Federation of 0:01:08.959 --> 0:01:13.080 Independent Business. The organization's monthly Small Business Optimism Index felt 0:01:13.080 --> 0:01:15.640 the Naughty two point nine last month, compared to ninety 0:01:15.720 --> 0:01:18.920 three point nine in January, and Dick Sporting Goods down 0:01:19.000 --> 0:01:22.160 almost five percent in early trading after posting disappointing fourth 0:01:22.240 --> 0:01:25.160 quarter results and providing a forecast for the current year 0:01:25.240 --> 0:01:28.600 that trailed analysts estimates. That's a Bloomberg business flash, Tom 0:01:28.640 --> 0:01:33.600 and Mike Karen, thanks so much. It is on Wall Street. 0:01:34.880 --> 0:01:38.400 The following is from Bloomberg View. Opinions and commentary from 0:01:38.440 --> 0:01:42.400 Bloomberg columnists. I'm justin Fox, a columnist from Bloomberg View. 0:01:42.720 --> 0:01:44.840 Wouldn't it be fun to work at a company where 0:01:44.880 --> 0:01:48.000 nobody is the boss? For lots of people? Apparently not. 0:01:48.400 --> 0:01:52.680 Online shoe retailer Zappos fell off of Fortune magazines hundred 0:01:52.680 --> 0:01:55.840 Best Companies To Work For list last week after switching 0:01:55.880 --> 0:01:59.720 over to a hierarchy free management system called Holocracy, and 0:02:00.000 --> 0:02:03.600 digital publisher Medium announced Friday that has decided to ditch 0:02:03.600 --> 0:02:07.400 holocracy because quote, the system had begun to exert a 0:02:07.480 --> 0:02:12.280 small but persistent tax on our effectiveness unquote. In holocricy, 0:02:12.560 --> 0:02:15.919 employees inhabit roles that give them full responsibility for some 0:02:16.000 --> 0:02:19.000 slice of what an organization does. There's a process for 0:02:19.040 --> 0:02:22.160 resolving conflicts and a framework for meetings to keep things 0:02:22.160 --> 0:02:25.080 moving along, But there aren't supposed to be our managers 0:02:25.160 --> 0:02:28.840 or hierarchies. It all sounds very democratic, except that it's 0:02:28.880 --> 0:02:32.600 the bosses such as Zappos CEO Tony Say, who usually 0:02:32.639 --> 0:02:35.600 pushed their companies to adopt delocracy, and it's the rank 0:02:35.680 --> 0:02:39.440 and file who complain and resist. Why is that? Well, 0:02:39.480 --> 0:02:41.880 maybe it's because being a boss is hard. There are 0:02:41.880 --> 0:02:45.160 lots of tough decisions and often little credit. Really, who'd 0:02:45.160 --> 0:02:48.000 want to do that? I'm Justin Fox, a columnist for 0:02:48.040 --> 0:02:51.600 Bloomberg View. For more Bloomberg opinion and commentary, please go 0:02:51.680 --> 0:02:54.200 to Bloomberg View dot com or view go on the 0:02:54.200 --> 0:02:58.840 Bloomberg terminal. This has been Bloomberg View and Bloomberg View commentary. 0:02:58.880 --> 0:03:02.919 It could be heard our weekdays. I'm Bloomberg Radio. March 0:03:03.000 --> 0:03:06.320 sixteenth an important date. Michael brings us up to speed 0:03:06.320 --> 0:03:08.680 on where we stand with our good guest. Federal But 0:03:08.760 --> 0:03:11.480 Market Committee holds its next meeting in At one point, 0:03:11.520 --> 0:03:13.880 people were fairly convinced it was going to be the 0:03:13.960 --> 0:03:17.680 next date for a rate increase in the United States. 0:03:17.720 --> 0:03:20.799 Now looks like that's off the table from what we're 0:03:20.800 --> 0:03:25.680 hearing from Fed officials. But uh, Marks Andy from Moody's Analytics, 0:03:25.720 --> 0:03:27.280 he's the chief economist there. Let me ask you this. 0:03:27.680 --> 0:03:34.080 In December, the FED put out its survey of economic projections. 0:03:34.200 --> 0:03:36.840 What they suggested was going to happen to the economy 0:03:36.880 --> 0:03:40.120 by the fourth quarter of this year growth of about 0:03:40.160 --> 0:03:45.440 two percent, unemployment rate of four point seven percent, and inflation, 0:03:45.920 --> 0:03:49.400 uh core inflation of one point six percent. Well, we've 0:03:49.440 --> 0:03:54.000 got inflation above that number. Unemployment is just above four 0:03:54.040 --> 0:03:56.640 point seven percent at four point nine and we've got 0:03:56.640 --> 0:04:00.520 growth of about two percent. So uh, first fall. Those 0:04:00.520 --> 0:04:03.800 who said the FED was crazy and making those forecasts 0:04:04.200 --> 0:04:06.760 don't seem to be correct. What about those who say 0:04:06.760 --> 0:04:10.800 the Fed should not be raising rates. Well, I think 0:04:10.800 --> 0:04:13.720 they'll pause in at this upcoming meeting just because of 0:04:13.760 --> 0:04:16.680 the turmoil and financial markets since the beginning of the year, 0:04:16.720 --> 0:04:18.640 and they'll want to see what the fallout on the 0:04:18.640 --> 0:04:20.880 economy of that has been. I mean, it looks like 0:04:20.960 --> 0:04:24.479 the fallout at least from the data is very modest. 0:04:24.560 --> 0:04:27.120 Can't can't really see it. But it's still too early 0:04:27.160 --> 0:04:29.320 to conclude that there won't be some impacts. I think 0:04:29.320 --> 0:04:32.720 they'll wait, but you know, by the June meeting, and 0:04:32.839 --> 0:04:34.760 I think they'll have all the evidence they need that 0:04:35.400 --> 0:04:38.800 it's time to raise rates and continue to normalize policy. 0:04:38.880 --> 0:04:42.320 The the economy is still creating, lots of jobs, unemployees 0:04:42.360 --> 0:04:47.000 still declining, and inflation is uh, you know, actual inflation 0:04:47.200 --> 0:04:50.440 has actually picked has picked up, and there's one point, 0:04:50.440 --> 0:04:52.320 as you said, one point seven percent, which isn't too 0:04:52.320 --> 0:04:54.840 far away from their targets. So I think we're in 0:04:54.839 --> 0:04:57.080 for a series of rate hikes late this year going 0:04:57.120 --> 0:05:00.880 into Well if that's the case, then doesn't the market 0:05:00.920 --> 0:05:03.840 have a heart attack over that idea? Yeah, they have 0:05:03.920 --> 0:05:08.000 some adjustments to do. Yeah, because the markets last I look, 0:05:08.080 --> 0:05:11.920 they're pricing and maybe one great hike this year one 0:05:12.000 --> 0:05:15.880 and a half. I would expect three and the series 0:05:15.920 --> 0:05:17.960 next year. So yeah, I think the markets will have 0:05:18.000 --> 0:05:21.080 to adjust and there will be more volatility and financial markets. 0:05:21.279 --> 0:05:24.000 I think what we've seen so far this year is 0:05:24.320 --> 0:05:26.080 is going to continue on and something we will have 0:05:26.120 --> 0:05:29.240 to get used. Doesn't that then pulls a conundrum for 0:05:29.240 --> 0:05:31.520 the Fed. They don't want to raise rates now because 0:05:31.520 --> 0:05:34.000 of volatility, which means they have to raise rates more 0:05:34.160 --> 0:05:38.040 later which will cause volatility. Doesn't that cause them must 0:05:38.080 --> 0:05:42.039 be talking to Mark Sandy to have a question like that. No, 0:05:42.600 --> 0:05:45.400 because I don't think as we will see that it's 0:05:45.400 --> 0:05:47.599 going to have a major impact on the economy. You know, 0:05:47.640 --> 0:05:52.160 markets go up down all around sideways, and you know, 0:05:52.880 --> 0:05:54.880 at the end of the day, we're still creating two 0:05:54.920 --> 0:05:57.839 hundreds thousand jobs per months. The economy is moving forward. 0:05:57.920 --> 0:06:01.560 So uh, you know, the finance terminal is very uncomfortable, 0:06:01.640 --> 0:06:04.960 you know, particularly for people on Wall Street who observing this, 0:06:05.040 --> 0:06:08.320 and you know, wealthy individuals watching their their screen. But 0:06:08.480 --> 0:06:12.240 you know, for most Americans, I think it's you know, sideshow. Mark, 0:06:12.279 --> 0:06:15.080 we call the screen of Bloomberg terminal. You're supposed to 0:06:16.480 --> 0:06:19.560 yeah I should, yeah, you know, and well versed with 0:06:19.560 --> 0:06:22.320 that Bloomberg terminal as you know. But but guys like 0:06:22.400 --> 0:06:24.680 you now were the unemployment rate, as you mentioned the 0:06:24.760 --> 0:06:27.120 U six earlier, were at an extraordian important I did 0:06:27.120 --> 0:06:30.599 a chart yesterday showing how rare sub four point zero 0:06:30.680 --> 0:06:34.800 percent unemployment is. Jonathan tweets out to us this morning, 0:06:34.880 --> 0:06:38.160 Dr Zany and he says, drs Andy is ignoring the 0:06:38.200 --> 0:06:42.080 fact that most new jobs are minimum wage. And secondly, 0:06:43.120 --> 0:06:46.359 excuse me, over ninety million people have quit looking for 0:06:46.400 --> 0:06:50.080 a job. Give us an update on this real belief 0:06:50.200 --> 0:06:53.799 in America that most of the new jobs aren't quote 0:06:53.880 --> 0:06:57.400 unquote full time good jobs. Help us that. Yeah, that's 0:06:57.440 --> 0:07:00.240 just you know, I'm perplexed by it. It's just wrong. 0:07:00.520 --> 0:07:03.960 I mean, when you create jobs per month, and again 0:07:04.040 --> 0:07:07.200 that's we've been doing that. Plus you create all kinds 0:07:07.240 --> 0:07:11.840 of jobs, yes, low paying retail, leisure, hospitality, but construction 0:07:11.920 --> 0:07:14.200 jobs were creating a lots of them. They're they're all 0:07:14.280 --> 0:07:17.600 middle paying, you know, K three twelve, education jobs, lots 0:07:17.600 --> 0:07:19.800 of those their middle paying, and a lot of high 0:07:19.800 --> 0:07:24.920 paying jobs and professional services, services, healthcare. So it's all okay. 0:07:24.960 --> 0:07:31.880 Is the distinction the perceived or expected mobility among those 0:07:31.920 --> 0:07:35.000 groups that a lot of America things they can advance 0:07:35.080 --> 0:07:38.560 or their kids can advance to that better place. Yeah, 0:07:38.600 --> 0:07:40.640 I'm on board with that. I think that's exactly right. 0:07:40.680 --> 0:07:43.240 And it goes to the inks that we're being expressed politically, 0:07:43.280 --> 0:07:45.760 going back to our father Coughlin discussion, I think that's 0:07:45.760 --> 0:07:49.480 exactly right, but I would make I would suggest that 0:07:49.760 --> 0:07:52.960 as the economy titans and in a year from now, 0:07:53.000 --> 0:07:54.840 our problem isn't gonna be unemployment. It's going to be 0:07:54.880 --> 0:07:57.680 a lack of labor. And at that point we're gonna 0:07:57.720 --> 0:08:00.840 see wage growth pick up for folks at all parts 0:08:00.840 --> 0:08:03.000 of the income distribution. It's a long time in coming, 0:08:03.480 --> 0:08:04.880 and we should be doing a lot of things to 0:08:04.880 --> 0:08:08.480 address this issue from a policy perspective, but the economy 0:08:08.560 --> 0:08:10.680 is going to be right in in a good enough 0:08:10.680 --> 0:08:13.680 place that everyone more people are going to benefit, even 0:08:13.720 --> 0:08:15.560 though it's at the bottom part of the income distribution. 0:08:15.960 --> 0:08:18.560 Well as the argument that Stanley Fisher was making yesterday 0:08:18.600 --> 0:08:23.000 that the Phillips curve isn't broken, it's just slow. It's 0:08:23.000 --> 0:08:25.120 alive and well, it's very obvious. It's very clear. You 0:08:25.120 --> 0:08:27.800 can look at you know, wage growth across the industry 0:08:27.800 --> 0:08:30.080 relative to the strength of those industries. You can see. 0:08:30.160 --> 0:08:32.160 You can look at it regionally, look at which parts 0:08:32.160 --> 0:08:34.120 of the country are doing well and not. You can 0:08:34.120 --> 0:08:36.319 see in wage what you can see the internationally. The 0:08:36.400 --> 0:08:39.200 Phillips curve works and has always worked in it is 0:08:39.240 --> 0:08:41.280 working now and we'll we'll see it, you know, it's 0:08:41.280 --> 0:08:47.720 already happening well in in that case by the end 0:08:47.760 --> 0:08:51.120 of the year, and this will will come full circle 0:08:51.160 --> 0:08:53.760 on Father Coughlin when it comes time for people to vote. 0:08:53.800 --> 0:08:55.600 What are they going to be thinking about the economy 0:08:55.679 --> 0:08:59.320 the second Tuesday in November. Well, you know, I do 0:08:59.400 --> 0:09:04.880 think that people will uh. I think in general that 0:09:05.040 --> 0:09:09.120 the establishment, the political middle will hold. I'd be surprised. 0:09:09.200 --> 0:09:11.760 That's what happened in the thirties and the depression when 0:09:11.760 --> 0:09:13.800 we have Father Coffin. I think that's what's gonna happen. 0:09:14.240 --> 0:09:17.160 Just go around. But you know, I'm sure it's going 0:09:17.200 --> 0:09:20.240 to be a close election no matter who's running. But 0:09:20.720 --> 0:09:23.360 a year or two from now, I think the economy 0:09:23.440 --> 0:09:26.920 and the political environment and backdrop will will be very different. 0:09:27.160 --> 0:09:29.320 Dr Sandy thank you so much. Mark Sandy Wood. He's 0:09:29.320 --> 0:09:32.120 analytic and he has been a resilient optimists on the 0:09:32.120 --> 0:09:37.400 American economic experience. Mike, I think it's fascinating. You know, 0:09:37.440 --> 0:09:40.520 you talk about Chris with with Nancy Reagan dying, you 0:09:40.600 --> 0:09:44.079 talk about the the arch ring and concept of mourning 0:09:44.160 --> 0:09:48.040 in America. When we have people talking about a new 0:09:48.080 --> 0:09:53.680 morning in America, the mail just lights up. Yeah, you know, 0:09:53.679 --> 0:09:55.760 I don't have an opinion, folks, I do, but I 0:09:55.800 --> 0:09:58.600 don't let it out. The mail just lights up. That's 0:09:58.600 --> 0:10:02.120 a fact. That's a fact. Well, um, there are a 0:10:02.160 --> 0:10:05.240 lot of people who don't feel that we're there yet. Yeah. Also, 0:10:05.760 --> 0:10:10.120 which explains the politics. There's politics is pretty ugly. But 0:10:10.120 --> 0:10:14.040 I think Mark maybe right, and there's an awful lot 0:10:14.080 --> 0:10:19.679 of weight to the political system and to upend it totally. 0:10:19.679 --> 0:10:26.599 I mean we saw remember um uh back in and 0:10:26.679 --> 0:10:30.199 Russ Parole was leading in the polls at one point 0:10:30.240 --> 0:10:32.720 and he was a non factor by the end. So 0:10:32.800 --> 0:10:34.840 let's see what happens. We got to get down the road. 0:10:34.880 --> 0:10:38.560 We think uh Brett bare and uh Chuck God for 0:10:38.600 --> 0:10:41.640 their perspective as well. Of course, a lot of this 0:10:42.559 --> 0:10:46.760 what we do economics, finance, investment, international relations, filtering in 0:10:47.120 --> 0:10:52.160 to your weekend reading and your political consideration as we 0:10:52.240 --> 0:10:55.760 moved through the election cycle. I'm Bloomberg Radio. We do that. 0:10:55.960 --> 0:10:58.400 I'm really proud of what we do. Starting eleven a m. 0:10:58.520 --> 0:11:01.959 Sunday morning and going through Sunday afternoon, where You can 0:11:02.000 --> 0:11:05.640 hear the political dialogue of this nation with good people 0:11:05.760 --> 0:11:10.080 like Fox Do Sunday and meet the press from New York. 0:11:10.320 --> 0:11:11.920 This is Bloomberg Radio.