1
00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:05,840
Speaker 1: Global business news twenty four hours a day. That's Bloomberg

2
00:00:05,920 --> 00:00:09,000
Speaker 1: dot Com, the radio plus mobile LAPP and on your radio,

3
00:00:09,280 --> 00:00:13,360
Speaker 1: this is a Bloomberg Business flash and I'm Cameron Moscow.

4
00:00:13,440 --> 00:00:17,640
Speaker 1: Global stocks are well, they're little change to lower now

5
00:00:17,680 --> 00:00:20,200
Speaker 1: as slump and Chinese exports were dragging metals lower and

6
00:00:20,200 --> 00:00:23,319
Speaker 1: brought equities to a five day winning streak. Brought that

7
00:00:23,400 --> 00:00:26,320
Speaker 1: winning streak to a halt. Right now. The decks in Germany,

8
00:00:26,320 --> 00:00:28,520
Speaker 1: though it is little change. The cat embarrass is down

9
00:00:28,560 --> 00:00:30,560
Speaker 1: a tenth of upper set, and the FT one hundred

10
00:00:30,640 --> 00:00:34,040
Speaker 1: is down two tenths per cent. SNP EVENI futures are

11
00:00:34,080 --> 00:00:36,680
Speaker 1: down six points DOWNI Mini futures down thirty seven, and

12
00:00:36,800 --> 00:00:40,080
Speaker 1: Nasdaki mini futures are down about fourteen and your treasury

13
00:00:40,120 --> 00:00:42,360
Speaker 1: U sixteen thirty seconds. The yield one point eight four

14
00:00:42,440 --> 00:00:44,839
Speaker 1: per set nine x screwed oil up nine tenths per

15
00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:47,240
Speaker 1: cent or thirty five cents to thirty twenty four. A

16
00:00:47,320 --> 00:00:50,640
Speaker 1: barrel comes gold is up seven tenths per center eight

17
00:00:50,640 --> 00:00:53,480
Speaker 1: dollar sixty cents to twelve seventy two seventy and ounce

18
00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:56,520
Speaker 1: the euros at a dollar ten nineteen again one thirteen

19
00:00:56,560 --> 00:00:59,560
Speaker 1: point oh nine sena Fee and Mark planning to end

20
00:00:59,600 --> 00:01:02,200
Speaker 1: a two day aca long joint venture to sell vaccines

21
00:01:02,200 --> 00:01:05,520
Speaker 1: in Europe as revenue from the product's dwindles. Small business

22
00:01:05,560 --> 00:01:08,920
Speaker 1: optimism declining in February, according to the National Federation of

23
00:01:08,959 --> 00:01:13,080
Speaker 1: Independent Business. The organization's monthly Small Business Optimism Index felt

24
00:01:13,080 --> 00:01:15,640
Speaker 1: the Naughty two point nine last month, compared to ninety

25
00:01:15,720 --> 00:01:18,920
Speaker 1: three point nine in January, and Dick Sporting Goods down

26
00:01:19,000 --> 00:01:22,160
Speaker 1: almost five percent in early trading after posting disappointing fourth

27
00:01:22,240 --> 00:01:25,160
Speaker 1: quarter results and providing a forecast for the current year

28
00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:28,600
Speaker 1: that trailed analysts estimates. That's a Bloomberg business flash, Tom

29
00:01:28,640 --> 00:01:33,600
Speaker 1: and Mike Karen, thanks so much. It is on Wall Street.

30
00:01:34,880 --> 00:01:38,400
Speaker 1: The following is from Bloomberg View. Opinions and commentary from

31
00:01:38,440 --> 00:01:42,400
Speaker 1: Bloomberg columnists. I'm justin Fox, a columnist from Bloomberg View.

32
00:01:42,720 --> 00:01:44,840
Speaker 1: Wouldn't it be fun to work at a company where

33
00:01:44,880 --> 00:01:48,000
Speaker 1: nobody is the boss? For lots of people? Apparently not.

34
00:01:48,400 --> 00:01:52,680
Speaker 1: Online shoe retailer Zappos fell off of Fortune magazines hundred

35
00:01:52,680 --> 00:01:55,840
Speaker 1: Best Companies To Work For list last week after switching

36
00:01:55,880 --> 00:01:59,720
Speaker 1: over to a hierarchy free management system called Holocracy, and

37
00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:03,600
Speaker 1: digital publisher Medium announced Friday that has decided to ditch

38
00:02:03,600 --> 00:02:07,400
Speaker 1: holocracy because quote, the system had begun to exert a

39
00:02:07,480 --> 00:02:12,280
Speaker 1: small but persistent tax on our effectiveness unquote. In holocricy,

40
00:02:12,560 --> 00:02:15,919
Speaker 1: employees inhabit roles that give them full responsibility for some

41
00:02:16,000 --> 00:02:19,000
Speaker 1: slice of what an organization does. There's a process for

42
00:02:19,040 --> 00:02:22,160
Speaker 1: resolving conflicts and a framework for meetings to keep things

43
00:02:22,160 --> 00:02:25,080
Speaker 1: moving along, But there aren't supposed to be our managers

44
00:02:25,160 --> 00:02:28,840
Speaker 1: or hierarchies. It all sounds very democratic, except that it's

45
00:02:28,880 --> 00:02:32,600
Speaker 1: the bosses such as Zappos CEO Tony Say, who usually

46
00:02:32,639 --> 00:02:35,600
Speaker 1: pushed their companies to adopt delocracy, and it's the rank

47
00:02:35,680 --> 00:02:39,440
Speaker 1: and file who complain and resist. Why is that? Well,

48
00:02:39,480 --> 00:02:41,880
Speaker 1: maybe it's because being a boss is hard. There are

49
00:02:41,880 --> 00:02:45,160
Speaker 1: lots of tough decisions and often little credit. Really, who'd

50
00:02:45,160 --> 00:02:48,000
Speaker 1: want to do that? I'm Justin Fox, a columnist for

51
00:02:48,040 --> 00:02:51,600
Speaker 1: Bloomberg View. For more Bloomberg opinion and commentary, please go

52
00:02:51,680 --> 00:02:54,200
Speaker 1: to Bloomberg View dot com or view go on the

53
00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:58,840
Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal. This has been Bloomberg View and Bloomberg View commentary.

54
00:02:58,880 --> 00:03:02,919
Speaker 1: It could be heard our weekdays. I'm Bloomberg Radio. March

55
00:03:03,000 --> 00:03:06,320
Speaker 1: sixteenth an important date. Michael brings us up to speed

56
00:03:06,320 --> 00:03:08,680
Speaker 1: on where we stand with our good guest. Federal But

57
00:03:08,760 --> 00:03:11,480
Speaker 1: Market Committee holds its next meeting in At one point,

58
00:03:11,520 --> 00:03:13,880
Speaker 1: people were fairly convinced it was going to be the

59
00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:17,680
Speaker 1: next date for a rate increase in the United States.

60
00:03:17,720 --> 00:03:20,799
Speaker 1: Now looks like that's off the table from what we're

61
00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:25,680
Speaker 1: hearing from Fed officials. But uh, Marks Andy from Moody's Analytics,

62
00:03:25,720 --> 00:03:27,280
Speaker 1: he's the chief economist there. Let me ask you this.

63
00:03:27,680 --> 00:03:34,080
Speaker 1: In December, the FED put out its survey of economic projections.

64
00:03:34,200 --> 00:03:36,840
Speaker 1: What they suggested was going to happen to the economy

65
00:03:36,880 --> 00:03:40,120
Speaker 1: by the fourth quarter of this year growth of about

66
00:03:40,160 --> 00:03:45,440
Speaker 1: two percent, unemployment rate of four point seven percent, and inflation,

67
00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:49,400
Speaker 1: uh core inflation of one point six percent. Well, we've

68
00:03:49,440 --> 00:03:54,000
Speaker 1: got inflation above that number. Unemployment is just above four

69
00:03:54,040 --> 00:03:56,640
Speaker 1: point seven percent at four point nine and we've got

70
00:03:56,640 --> 00:04:00,520
Speaker 1: growth of about two percent. So uh, first fall. Those

71
00:04:00,520 --> 00:04:03,800
Speaker 1: who said the FED was crazy and making those forecasts

72
00:04:04,200 --> 00:04:06,760
Speaker 1: don't seem to be correct. What about those who say

73
00:04:06,760 --> 00:04:10,800
Speaker 1: the Fed should not be raising rates. Well, I think

74
00:04:10,800 --> 00:04:13,720
Speaker 1: they'll pause in at this upcoming meeting just because of

75
00:04:13,760 --> 00:04:16,680
Speaker 1: the turmoil and financial markets since the beginning of the year,

76
00:04:16,720 --> 00:04:18,640
Speaker 1: and they'll want to see what the fallout on the

77
00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:20,880
Speaker 1: economy of that has been. I mean, it looks like

78
00:04:20,960 --> 00:04:24,479
Speaker 1: the fallout at least from the data is very modest.

79
00:04:24,560 --> 00:04:27,120
Speaker 1: Can't can't really see it. But it's still too early

80
00:04:27,160 --> 00:04:29,320
Speaker 1: to conclude that there won't be some impacts. I think

81
00:04:29,320 --> 00:04:32,720
Speaker 1: they'll wait, but you know, by the June meeting, and

82
00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:34,760
Speaker 1: I think they'll have all the evidence they need that

83
00:04:35,400 --> 00:04:38,800
Speaker 1: it's time to raise rates and continue to normalize policy.

84
00:04:38,880 --> 00:04:42,320
Speaker 1: The the economy is still creating, lots of jobs, unemployees

85
00:04:42,360 --> 00:04:47,000
Speaker 1: still declining, and inflation is uh, you know, actual inflation

86
00:04:47,200 --> 00:04:50,440
Speaker 1: has actually picked has picked up, and there's one point,

87
00:04:50,440 --> 00:04:52,320
Speaker 1: as you said, one point seven percent, which isn't too

88
00:04:52,320 --> 00:04:54,840
Speaker 1: far away from their targets. So I think we're in

89
00:04:54,839 --> 00:04:57,080
Speaker 1: for a series of rate hikes late this year going

90
00:04:57,120 --> 00:05:00,880
Speaker 1: into Well if that's the case, then doesn't the market

91
00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:03,840
Speaker 1: have a heart attack over that idea? Yeah, they have

92
00:05:03,920 --> 00:05:08,000
Speaker 1: some adjustments to do. Yeah, because the markets last I look,

93
00:05:08,080 --> 00:05:11,920
Speaker 1: they're pricing and maybe one great hike this year one

94
00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:15,880
Speaker 1: and a half. I would expect three and the series

95
00:05:15,920 --> 00:05:17,960
Speaker 1: next year. So yeah, I think the markets will have

96
00:05:18,000 --> 00:05:21,080
Speaker 1: to adjust and there will be more volatility and financial markets.

97
00:05:21,279 --> 00:05:24,000
Speaker 1: I think what we've seen so far this year is

98
00:05:24,320 --> 00:05:26,080
Speaker 1: is going to continue on and something we will have

99
00:05:26,120 --> 00:05:29,240
Speaker 1: to get used. Doesn't that then pulls a conundrum for

100
00:05:29,240 --> 00:05:31,520
Speaker 1: the Fed. They don't want to raise rates now because

101
00:05:31,520 --> 00:05:34,000
Speaker 1: of volatility, which means they have to raise rates more

102
00:05:34,160 --> 00:05:38,040
Speaker 1: later which will cause volatility. Doesn't that cause them must

103
00:05:38,080 --> 00:05:42,039
Speaker 1: be talking to Mark Sandy to have a question like that. No,

104
00:05:42,600 --> 00:05:45,400
Speaker 1: because I don't think as we will see that it's

105
00:05:45,400 --> 00:05:47,599
Speaker 1: going to have a major impact on the economy. You know,

106
00:05:47,640 --> 00:05:52,160
Speaker 1: markets go up down all around sideways, and you know,

107
00:05:52,880 --> 00:05:54,880
Speaker 1: at the end of the day, we're still creating two

108
00:05:54,920 --> 00:05:57,839
Speaker 1: hundreds thousand jobs per months. The economy is moving forward.

109
00:05:57,920 --> 00:06:01,560
Speaker 1: So uh, you know, the finance terminal is very uncomfortable,

110
00:06:01,640 --> 00:06:04,960
Speaker 1: you know, particularly for people on Wall Street who observing this,

111
00:06:05,040 --> 00:06:08,320
Speaker 1: and you know, wealthy individuals watching their their screen. But

112
00:06:08,480 --> 00:06:12,240
Speaker 1: you know, for most Americans, I think it's you know, sideshow. Mark,

113
00:06:12,279 --> 00:06:15,080
Speaker 1: we call the screen of Bloomberg terminal. You're supposed to

114
00:06:16,480 --> 00:06:19,560
Speaker 1: yeah I should, yeah, you know, and well versed with

115
00:06:19,560 --> 00:06:22,320
Speaker 1: that Bloomberg terminal as you know. But but guys like

116
00:06:22,400 --> 00:06:24,680
Speaker 1: you now were the unemployment rate, as you mentioned the

117
00:06:24,760 --> 00:06:27,120
Speaker 1: U six earlier, were at an extraordian important I did

118
00:06:27,120 --> 00:06:30,599
Speaker 1: a chart yesterday showing how rare sub four point zero

119
00:06:30,680 --> 00:06:34,800
Speaker 1: percent unemployment is. Jonathan tweets out to us this morning,

120
00:06:34,880 --> 00:06:38,160
Speaker 1: Dr Zany and he says, drs Andy is ignoring the

121
00:06:38,200 --> 00:06:42,080
Speaker 1: fact that most new jobs are minimum wage. And secondly,

122
00:06:43,120 --> 00:06:46,359
Speaker 1: excuse me, over ninety million people have quit looking for

123
00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:50,080
Speaker 1: a job. Give us an update on this real belief

124
00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:53,799
Speaker 1: in America that most of the new jobs aren't quote

125
00:06:53,880 --> 00:06:57,400
Speaker 1: unquote full time good jobs. Help us that. Yeah, that's

126
00:06:57,440 --> 00:07:00,240
Speaker 1: just you know, I'm perplexed by it. It's just wrong.

127
00:07:00,520 --> 00:07:03,960
Speaker 1: I mean, when you create jobs per month, and again

128
00:07:04,040 --> 00:07:07,200
Speaker 1: that's we've been doing that. Plus you create all kinds

129
00:07:07,240 --> 00:07:11,840
Speaker 1: of jobs, yes, low paying retail, leisure, hospitality, but construction

130
00:07:11,920 --> 00:07:14,200
Speaker 1: jobs were creating a lots of them. They're they're all

131
00:07:14,280 --> 00:07:17,600
Speaker 1: middle paying, you know, K three twelve, education jobs, lots

132
00:07:17,600 --> 00:07:19,800
Speaker 1: of those their middle paying, and a lot of high

133
00:07:19,800 --> 00:07:24,920
Speaker 1: paying jobs and professional services, services, healthcare. So it's all okay.

134
00:07:24,960 --> 00:07:31,880
Speaker 1: Is the distinction the perceived or expected mobility among those

135
00:07:31,920 --> 00:07:35,000
Speaker 1: groups that a lot of America things they can advance

136
00:07:35,080 --> 00:07:38,560
Speaker 1: or their kids can advance to that better place. Yeah,

137
00:07:38,600 --> 00:07:40,640
Speaker 1: I'm on board with that. I think that's exactly right.

138
00:07:40,680 --> 00:07:43,240
Speaker 1: And it goes to the inks that we're being expressed politically,

139
00:07:43,280 --> 00:07:45,760
Speaker 1: going back to our father Coughlin discussion, I think that's

140
00:07:45,760 --> 00:07:49,480
Speaker 1: exactly right, but I would make I would suggest that

141
00:07:49,760 --> 00:07:52,960
Speaker 1: as the economy titans and in a year from now,

142
00:07:53,000 --> 00:07:54,840
Speaker 1: our problem isn't gonna be unemployment. It's going to be

143
00:07:54,880 --> 00:07:57,680
Speaker 1: a lack of labor. And at that point we're gonna

144
00:07:57,720 --> 00:08:00,840
Speaker 1: see wage growth pick up for folks at all parts

145
00:08:00,840 --> 00:08:03,000
Speaker 1: of the income distribution. It's a long time in coming,

146
00:08:03,480 --> 00:08:04,880
Speaker 1: and we should be doing a lot of things to

147
00:08:04,880 --> 00:08:08,480
Speaker 1: address this issue from a policy perspective, but the economy

148
00:08:08,560 --> 00:08:10,680
Speaker 1: is going to be right in in a good enough

149
00:08:10,680 --> 00:08:13,680
Speaker 1: place that everyone more people are going to benefit, even

150
00:08:13,720 --> 00:08:15,560
Speaker 1: though it's at the bottom part of the income distribution.

151
00:08:15,960 --> 00:08:18,560
Speaker 1: Well as the argument that Stanley Fisher was making yesterday

152
00:08:18,600 --> 00:08:23,000
Speaker 1: that the Phillips curve isn't broken, it's just slow. It's

153
00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:25,120
Speaker 1: alive and well, it's very obvious. It's very clear. You

154
00:08:25,120 --> 00:08:27,800
Speaker 1: can look at you know, wage growth across the industry

155
00:08:27,800 --> 00:08:30,080
Speaker 1: relative to the strength of those industries. You can see.

156
00:08:30,160 --> 00:08:32,160
Speaker 1: You can look at it regionally, look at which parts

157
00:08:32,160 --> 00:08:34,120
Speaker 1: of the country are doing well and not. You can

158
00:08:34,120 --> 00:08:36,319
Speaker 1: see in wage what you can see the internationally. The

159
00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:39,200
Speaker 1: Phillips curve works and has always worked in it is

160
00:08:39,240 --> 00:08:41,280
Speaker 1: working now and we'll we'll see it, you know, it's

161
00:08:41,280 --> 00:08:47,720
Speaker 1: already happening well in in that case by the end

162
00:08:47,760 --> 00:08:51,120
Speaker 1: of the year, and this will will come full circle

163
00:08:51,160 --> 00:08:53,760
Speaker 1: on Father Coughlin when it comes time for people to vote.

164
00:08:53,800 --> 00:08:55,600
Speaker 1: What are they going to be thinking about the economy

165
00:08:55,679 --> 00:08:59,320
Speaker 1: the second Tuesday in November. Well, you know, I do

166
00:08:59,400 --> 00:09:04,880
Speaker 1: think that people will uh. I think in general that

167
00:09:05,040 --> 00:09:09,120
Speaker 1: the establishment, the political middle will hold. I'd be surprised.

168
00:09:09,200 --> 00:09:11,760
Speaker 1: That's what happened in the thirties and the depression when

169
00:09:11,760 --> 00:09:13,800
Speaker 1: we have Father Coffin. I think that's what's gonna happen.

170
00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:17,160
Speaker 1: Just go around. But you know, I'm sure it's going

171
00:09:17,200 --> 00:09:20,240
Speaker 1: to be a close election no matter who's running. But

172
00:09:20,720 --> 00:09:23,360
Speaker 1: a year or two from now, I think the economy

173
00:09:23,440 --> 00:09:26,920
Speaker 1: and the political environment and backdrop will will be very different.

174
00:09:27,160 --> 00:09:29,320
Speaker 1: Dr Sandy thank you so much. Mark Sandy Wood. He's

175
00:09:29,320 --> 00:09:32,120
Speaker 1: analytic and he has been a resilient optimists on the

176
00:09:32,120 --> 00:09:37,400
Speaker 1: American economic experience. Mike, I think it's fascinating. You know,

177
00:09:37,440 --> 00:09:40,520
Speaker 1: you talk about Chris with with Nancy Reagan dying, you

178
00:09:40,600 --> 00:09:44,079
Speaker 1: talk about the the arch ring and concept of mourning

179
00:09:44,160 --> 00:09:48,040
Speaker 1: in America. When we have people talking about a new

180
00:09:48,080 --> 00:09:53,680
Speaker 1: morning in America, the mail just lights up. Yeah, you know,

181
00:09:53,679 --> 00:09:55,760
Speaker 1: I don't have an opinion, folks, I do, but I

182
00:09:55,800 --> 00:09:58,600
Speaker 1: don't let it out. The mail just lights up. That's

183
00:09:58,600 --> 00:10:02,120
Speaker 1: a fact. That's a fact. Well, um, there are a

184
00:10:02,160 --> 00:10:05,240
Speaker 1: lot of people who don't feel that we're there yet. Yeah. Also,

185
00:10:05,760 --> 00:10:10,120
Speaker 1: which explains the politics. There's politics is pretty ugly. But

186
00:10:10,120 --> 00:10:14,040
Speaker 1: I think Mark maybe right, and there's an awful lot

187
00:10:14,080 --> 00:10:19,679
Speaker 1: of weight to the political system and to upend it totally.

188
00:10:19,679 --> 00:10:26,599
Speaker 1: I mean we saw remember um uh back in and

189
00:10:26,679 --> 00:10:30,199
Speaker 1: Russ Parole was leading in the polls at one point

190
00:10:30,240 --> 00:10:32,720
Speaker 1: and he was a non factor by the end. So

191
00:10:32,800 --> 00:10:34,840
Speaker 1: let's see what happens. We got to get down the road.

192
00:10:34,880 --> 00:10:38,560
Speaker 1: We think uh Brett bare and uh Chuck God for

193
00:10:38,600 --> 00:10:41,640
Speaker 1: their perspective as well. Of course, a lot of this

194
00:10:42,559 --> 00:10:46,760
Speaker 1: what we do economics, finance, investment, international relations, filtering in

195
00:10:47,120 --> 00:10:52,160
Speaker 1: to your weekend reading and your political consideration as we

196
00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:55,760
Speaker 1: moved through the election cycle. I'm Bloomberg Radio. We do that.

197
00:10:55,960 --> 00:10:58,400
Speaker 1: I'm really proud of what we do. Starting eleven a m.

198
00:10:58,520 --> 00:11:01,959
Speaker 1: Sunday morning and going through Sunday afternoon, where You can

199
00:11:02,000 --> 00:11:05,640
Speaker 1: hear the political dialogue of this nation with good people

200
00:11:05,760 --> 00:11:10,080
Speaker 1: like Fox Do Sunday and meet the press from New York.

201
00:11:10,320 --> 00:11:11,920
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Radio.